1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 3: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're sitting. 4 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 4: It's a cash touchdown. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 5: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,440 Speaker 5: go to Swayne. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank small banks. 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:24,759 Speaker 4: I like to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 5: All right. 10 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combining and you. 11 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 5: Want to. 12 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 3: And we are underway. 13 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. 14 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 6: We are presented by our friends at bet MGM, the 15 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 6: King of Sports Books. 16 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: My name is Brendan Glasheen, your host. This week NFL. 17 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,639 Speaker 6: Week ten Best Bets. We are back each and every week. 18 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 6: We have Brandon Anderson of Action Network, Luke Swayne aka 19 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 6: Vegas Refund of Action Network, and we've got Grant Nefer 20 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,279 Speaker 6: joining us this week for our best Bets episode. As 21 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 6: a reminder, we have best Bets episodes in other sports 22 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 6: as well. Out with the NBA podcast Buckets, We've also 23 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 6: got the. 24 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: Line Change podcast that you can tune into. 25 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,759 Speaker 6: We have those available wherever you get your podcasts. Throughout 26 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 6: the course of those seasons. I know it's a very 27 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 6: sporty time of year. Also, you can find this podcast 28 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 6: included the other two I just mentioned. We are live 29 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 6: also once we're done our record. We're live on the 30 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 6: Action Network YouTube page, so if you do like watching us, 31 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 6: you can like the video and also please subscribe to 32 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 6: the Action Network YouTube page. And when you listen to 33 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 6: the podcast, please leave a five star rating and a review. 34 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 6: We can leave those reviews in Apple podcasts, especially Spotify, 35 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 6: wherever you listen. We greatly appreciate it. You can find 36 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 6: these guys individually in the free award winning Action Network app. 37 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 6: We are above five hundred on Best Bets three consecutive weeks, 38 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 6: Week seven, five and four, Week eight, six and three, 39 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 6: and last week, Week nine, a five and four mark 40 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 6: shout out Joe Colant the touchdown better he had DeVante 41 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 6: Smith plus two hundred. 42 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,919 Speaker 1: So again, it's not always about the record, right Brandon. 43 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: It's not always about the record. It's about those odds 44 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: as well. 45 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 6: And if you're getting that good CLV and also just 46 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:13,959 Speaker 6: putting in those picks, and Brandon knows that as a 47 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 6: future is better. So without further Ado, let's dive into 48 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 6: Week ten Best Bets. Brandon, I turned to you first, 49 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 6: as always, what are we eyeing for our first one? 50 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: Brandon? 51 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 7: We're going back to the island, but not this year's Island, 52 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 7: last year's island. Let's go Seattle Island Seahawks minus six 53 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 7: against the Commanders. Like, Seattle was not good last week, 54 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 7: but I want to overreact. Baltimore is a bad matchup. 55 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 7: Baltimore's really good, but now they're gonna stay in the DMV. Oh, 56 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 7: they're home, but they're they're facing another team from their Washington, 57 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 7: who I'm looking to faate. Washington is four and five, 58 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 7: but they don't look the part of a four and 59 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 7: five team. They're dead last defensively by DVA the last 60 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 7: four weeks. They traded away at the pass rush right, 61 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 7: Montes Sweat is gone, Chase Young is gone. Seattle traded 62 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 7: four pass rush. They've got Leonard Williams now So I 63 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 7: think this sets up for a really good trenches game 64 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 7: for Seattle. We know we love to focus on that. 65 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 7: Gino Smith when he's not under pressure, has been really 66 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,360 Speaker 7: good this season, and I think that he can stay 67 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 7: mostly clean. And then you get Washington corners that are 68 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 7: very beatable against DK Metcalf. I think she'll have a 69 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 7: big game. Obviously, Lockett Smith and Jigba Shane Waldron the 70 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 7: offensive corner for Seattles. They've been really good. Like Seale's 71 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 7: offense has a lot of very strong underlying numbers. They 72 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 7: continue to not be good on third down, not be 73 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 7: good in the red zone. Those numbers typically tend to regress, 74 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 7: and I keep waiting for the spot when is it 75 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 7: going to regress positively for Seattle and get the big 76 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 7: the big game, the big offensive score. And I think 77 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 7: it could be this game. I think it's a good 78 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 7: setup for them. Good home field advantage for Seattle. Washington 79 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 7: worse on the road, worse early in the first half. 80 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 7: So let's get get away early. A couple trends, of course, 81 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 7: Pete Carroll after a loss, Boy. 82 00:03:58,440 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 3: Did they lose last week? 83 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 7: Forty seven, twenty nine and four against the spread? Sixty 84 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,119 Speaker 7: two percent. And then here's the one that I've heard 85 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 7: Raybon mention as well on the sixth pack. Teams that 86 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 7: have a sixty percent win percentage are better after a 87 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 7: blowout twenty or more point loss. That's definitely Seattle here, 88 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 7: sixty eight percent hit rate. And if you just look 89 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,920 Speaker 7: at week ten to fifteen, So the teams that we 90 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 7: know are good, we know Seattle is good. Seattle is good. 91 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 7: Don't let Baltimore confuse you. Just week ten to fifteen 92 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 7: sixty percent win percentag you are better after twenty point 93 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 7: loss thirty nine and six ats eighty seven percent, covering 94 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 7: by almost ten points a game. I think this is 95 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 7: the spot where Seattle puts it together. I'll go Seahawks 96 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 7: minus six. 97 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: So correct me if I'm wrong. 98 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 6: This feels very similar to when the Ravens blasted the Lions, 99 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 6: and then the Lions come back and they redeem themselves 100 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 6: and play well against the Raiders. That that feels kind 101 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 6: of a similar that fits the trends right, very similar. 102 00:04:58,240 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 7: I think I even made that pick on this p 103 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 7: and even played Detroit Escalators, saying, hey, we've been waiting. 104 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 3: For Detroit to have it all put together. 105 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 7: And if I remember right, they came out and put 106 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 7: up like five hundred plus yards of offense till one 107 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 7: hundred and fifty, but had like seven hundred field goals 108 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 7: and stupid penalties and whatever, ended up winning by like 109 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 7: twelve and hitting none of the Escalators, but they dominated 110 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 7: that game. Josh McDaniels got fired two days later. Honestly, 111 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 7: wouldn't totally shock me if we got something like this. 112 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 7: I think Ron Rivera is kind of just a dead 113 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 7: man walking at this point with this team, So I 114 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 7: like Seattle to get a big win in here. 115 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 6: Okay, very good, and just for fun, let's take a 116 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 6: look total yards for the Lions in that game, four 117 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 6: hundred and eighty six. But again it's a different team 118 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 6: the Raiders, and I don't think Ron Rivera is quite 119 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 6: in a spot where he's gonna get fired after a 120 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 6: loss this week coming they're hovering around five hundred, but 121 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 6: very similar, very good. And you were on the Lions 122 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 6: last week, Luke, I feel like you're gonna echo this one. 123 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: You and Brandon always seem an alignment on your picks. 124 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 8: I'm gonna go to the Seahawks as well for a 125 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 8: lot of reasons that brand just stated, But it is 126 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 8: just backing a Seahawks team that we know is good, 127 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 8: like Brandon said, coming off probably one of the bigger 128 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 8: beatdowns that we've seen in a while Washington. They beat 129 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,680 Speaker 8: the Patriots, but that's not saying a lot. And this 130 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 8: is going to be a back to back road trip 131 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 8: for them, and teams going. 132 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 4: To Seattle off of as a second leg of a back. 133 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 8: To back road trip from east to West. Are fifteen 134 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 8: to twenty three against the spread, so that's thirty nine percent, 135 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:28,559 Speaker 8: So like this is going to be a tough travel 136 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 8: spot for Washington, which even without it, like I like 137 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 8: the Seahawks, but that just adds to the enticement that 138 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 8: this minus six is currently that I think we're getting 139 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 8: a good price based off of that beatdown where the 140 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 8: Seahawks just played probably two of maybe like probably two 141 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 8: of the best defenses in the league between the Ravens 142 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 8: and the Browns, and Gino has drastic splits when he 143 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 8: goes from man and zone, Like he really struggles when 144 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 8: he goes against man, and when he goes against zone, 145 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 8: he's kind of a different beast, where he's eighth and 146 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 8: EPA in the league against zone this year and he's 147 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 8: twenty first against man, and Washington plays at a top 148 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 8: ten zone rate, So this is definitely sets up well 149 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 8: for Gino, who really has looked tough for bad the 150 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 8: last two weeks. But again it's the Browns and the Ravens. 151 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 8: Those are just tough teams to go against are going 152 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 8: to make a lot of the quarterbacks in the league 153 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 8: look bad. And Washington just like I think they got 154 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 8: they got walking against the Patriots, like they still won 155 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 8: like I I was on the Patriots. 156 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 4: I think they probably should have covered that game. 157 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 6: You bet the Patriots again, we talked about this on 158 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 6: this very show. 159 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 8: It's just it's an incredible thing. At this point, I 160 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 8: just need to like win one of them. But yeah, yeah, 161 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 8: Seahawks for all the even reasons, Brandon said. And it's 162 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 8: just a great spot and a tough spot for Washington. 163 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 8: So Seahawks six minus six and a half either are. 164 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 1: Okay, very good. 165 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 6: Grant, you've come on before and given us player props, 166 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 6: and that is the direction you're heading in. It's actually 167 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 6: a team we've talked about already. This player betting on 168 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 6: is going up against the Baltimore Ravens. 169 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, And I mean I think the Bucks are 170 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:06,080 Speaker 2: overreacting a little bit to the matchup. But I'm going 171 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 2: with Watson over anywhere from one eighty eight to one 172 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 2: ninety two, depending on where you're getting ato point five 173 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 2: passing yards. To me, this line seems a little bit low. 174 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: I mean, I get that the Ravens pass defense is fantastic. 175 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 2: I mean, this is the two best pass defenses in 176 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: the league by a fairly wide margin, but getting this 177 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 2: under two hundred is pretty solid in this spot here. 178 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 2: I mean, the Ravens are only giving up one hundred 179 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 2: and seventy passing yards per game, but they've had a 180 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 2: fairly easy schedule for the most part, and they're not 181 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 2: quite as good as the numbers show. Watson, He's been 182 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,079 Speaker 2: solid over the last few games where he's actually played 183 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 2: a full game or played at all, over two hundred 184 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:47,480 Speaker 2: passing yards in each of those, right around two hundred 185 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 2: and forty per game. He has solid receivers. I mean, 186 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 2: Cooper's always a go to guy. They're going to be 187 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,679 Speaker 2: airing it out six and a half point spread to 188 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 2: Baltimore's favorite, likely going to be throwing the ball late 189 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 2: in the game. Cleveland is so so to me, this 190 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 2: line seems a little bit low. It should probably be 191 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 2: up at around two hundred and five in the spot. 192 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 2: I mean, Lamar Jackson on the other side, less of 193 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 2: a passer, worse matchup, and yet and they're the favorites, 194 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 2: and yet his line's sitting at two to two and 195 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 2: a half. So there's just a discrepancy. And I mean 196 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 2: the view on Watson that he's always gonna just go 197 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 2: out of a game injured, which I mean has been 198 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 2: the case a lot, but he's still passing the ball 199 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 2: thirty plus times and pretty much every single game he's playing. 200 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: One eighty eight and a half, even versus a top 201 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 2: tier pass defense is too low the line. 202 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, and to your point about the book suggesting, I 203 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 6: know his rushing prop is in sixteen and a half, 204 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 6: but I feel like there's still this public perception that 205 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 6: Deshaun Watson is what he was when he was in Houston, 206 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 6: in the sense that he's not gaining. 207 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: And churning out yards with his legs. 208 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 6: He's been throwing the ball more often than we think 209 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 6: in a trailing game. 210 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 1: Script makes a lot of sense. Okay, let's go to 211 00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: our second round of picks. Brandon, what do you. 212 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 7: Got, Well, you were just on a defensive, ugly looking 213 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 7: game with Browns Ravens. I'm gonna go to another one 214 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 7: that we had a chance to not have to watch 215 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 7: on Sunday night, but they we have flex scheduling. Now 216 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 7: we stuck with it. We're going to with the Jets Raiders. 217 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 7: I'm gonna take the under thirty seven. What are we 218 00:10:17,040 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 7: doing with the flex schedule thing? They had Jets Raiders, 219 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 7: we said we're gonna keep it. We got Broncos Vikings 220 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 7: next week. I'm a Vikings fan. I don't want to 221 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 7: watch that game, and they could have flexed out of 222 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 7: Sunday night. They're keeping it there, Like, what's even the 223 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 7: point of flex scheduling. If I gotta watch this game, 224 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 7: I gotta make money off of it, So give me 225 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 7: the under. I took this Sunday Morning under thirty seven 226 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 7: as a kind of a bonus look ahead. 227 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 3: If you were on the app. 228 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 7: It dropped a little bit, and every point, every half 229 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 7: point matters, but it's risen back. We got a couple 230 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 7: of Raiders corner injuries. I think that maybe have moved 231 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 7: it back to thirty seven. That's a key number. Still, 232 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 7: I'm gonna grab the thirty seven here. So I think 233 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 7: if you look at Jets Raiders, the case sort of 234 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 7: makes itself right. Both offenses stay think they're twenty ninth 235 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 7: and thirtieth in DVA. They're both bottom five passing, they're 236 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 7: both bottom seven running. Even with all the bad quarterbacks 237 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 7: around the league, I just did like a mid season 238 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 7: refresh at quarterback. I still rank Zach Wilson and Aidan 239 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 7: O'Connell bottom of four among. 240 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 3: Quarterbacks in the league. 241 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 7: So we have bad offenses that don't run, don't pass, 242 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 7: have bad quarterbacks, and I think both defenses are good. 243 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 3: Jets. 244 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 7: We know the Jets are good obviously, they've been great 245 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 7: and even against really good quarterbacks. Since Week four, Jets 246 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:36,319 Speaker 7: are number three DVOA defensively, Raiders are twelve during that span. 247 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 7: Patrick Ram, their coordinator, has been doing really well. They've 248 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 7: been better at home. They've got a few young guys 249 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 7: on the line at linebacker starting to step. 250 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 3: Up a little bit. 251 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 7: I think they're a great defense. You know, have to 252 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 7: be a great defense. If you're facing Zach Wilson, right, 253 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 7: it makes it pretty easy for you. So I think 254 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:55,199 Speaker 7: this is a get spot for and under. It just 255 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 7: kind of one of those ugly games. Raiders offense scored 256 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 7: thirty last week, and they'll lit up. This is to 257 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 7: celebrate against the Giants and Tommy DeVito. Look, you canna 258 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 7: light the cigars to celebrate Josh McDaniel's leaving. I'm fine 259 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 7: with that. But they averaged under sixteen points a game 260 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 7: before that. The defense is only allowing eighteen points a 261 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 7: game the last five games, so just not a lot 262 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 7: of points here. Raiders seven to two to the under 263 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 7: this season only one game at forty two, a one 264 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 7: game above forty two. Jets games outside of one kind 265 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 7: of higher scoring game against Denver Jets games are averaging 266 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 7: thirty three point seven points a game. So like we 267 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 7: know that bet Jets under Zach Wilson unders. And then 268 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 7: the reason I was on the Sunday morning before I 269 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 7: looked at it too closely, I'm just gonna hit you 270 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 7: with a slew of under trends here. This is like 271 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 7: the most under trends I've ever seen in one game 272 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 7: in bet lap in our system home underdog unders. We've 273 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 7: talked about that one sixty two percent the last two years, 274 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 7: Prime ten unders, you know that one by now sixty 275 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 7: two percent the last four years, seventy six percent this 276 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 7: year night unders that are not Monday night when it's 277 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 7: thirty seven to forty at the total sixty eight percent 278 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 7: hit rate, And that's not the last two or four years, 279 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,839 Speaker 7: that's the entire system that were tracking data. Games at 280 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 7: thirty seven are below just the last four years twenty 281 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 7: two to six and a one to the under seventy 282 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 7: nine percent. And this year alone total is at thirty 283 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 7: eight or below nine to two and a one to 284 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 7: the under. So just everything is pointing toward the under. 285 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:25,360 Speaker 3: Here. 286 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 7: It's not fun betting under thirty seven because like literally 287 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 7: anything good they do, you're like, oh no, oh, shoot, 288 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 7: there goes another point for me. It's fine, if you're 289 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 7: gonna watch the game, you may as well bet for 290 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 7: it to be awful, as Zach Wilson in Acconn is 291 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 7: going to be awful. 292 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: I don't think you mentioned Antonio Pierce too. 293 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 6: I mean, I just think that speaks to your point 294 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 6: about the belief defensively too. I know it's like a 295 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 6: narrative thing, but it feels Pierce being a former defensive 296 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 6: guy champion. 297 00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: I mean, he's got them believing they're trying the rate. 298 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 7: They're fired up, they're at home in Vegas. The other 299 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 7: thing I noticed, too is Josh Jacobs had his most 300 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 7: rushing attempts of the season last week, and, like Antonio Pierce, 301 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 7: extremely strikes me as a dude, that's gonna be like 302 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 7: we defend and we run the football. It's like, all right, great, 303 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 7: run the football, chew up the clock. Let's just just 304 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 7: keep grinding the clock and get this. Don't let Zach 305 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 7: Wilson back on the field. Just run another play up 306 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 7: the middle. Just run the clock out and keep this low. 307 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 6: Real quick, because I would imagine, as you said, folks 308 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 6: are picking up on the primetime trends of betting unders 309 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 6: in the Sunday night game. 310 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: What would you bet it too? Because I'm seeing thirty 311 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 1: six and a half out there. 312 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 6: At what point do you say, Okay, let's I would 313 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 6: I would stay away from betting a total. 314 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 7: Under within a reason when I write my article with 315 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 7: the every game, every team pick later in the week, 316 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 7: and I do a lot of these under like we're 317 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 7: recording Thursday. The Thursday night game is a classic, ugly 318 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 7: ugly under. The way I always say in my column 319 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 7: is bet thirty seven or the best number you can find, Like, effectively, 320 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 7: when the total gets this low, the research I've done 321 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 7: shows that they literally can't make it low enough, so 322 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 7: like they're not going to drop it to twenty five 323 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 7: or something ridiculous, They're just gonna keep sliding it down. 324 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 7: And effectively, once the total is so low, there's not 325 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 7: a number they can set it to to account for 326 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 7: how bad the offenses look or how dominant the defenses are. 327 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 7: So I would just go ahead and take the under 328 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 7: and just get the best number you count. 329 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: Okay, very good? All right, Luke, what's your second one? 330 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 8: I go with the Titans, who are right now plus 331 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,000 Speaker 8: one and a half at the Bucks. Which this one, 332 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 8: it's really it's a simple breakdown. But I mean Levis, 333 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 8: I was fading against the Falcons two weeks ago, thinking 334 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 8: that fading the unknown, which we are somewhat realizing the unknown, 335 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 8: that he might actually be very good. The game against 336 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 8: the Steelers, which was on a short week, was just 337 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 8: an awful draw for rookie quarterback going to Pittsburgh, and 338 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 8: the Steelers ended up covering. It was extremely lucky cover, 339 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 8: to be honest, but the Titans were covering the entire 340 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 8: week and Levis, honestly, who looked good. They're like the 341 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 8: box score, like the stats aren't. If you just look 342 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 8: at them and you didn't see him play, you probably 343 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 8: think he had an awful game. The Levis, like from 344 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 8: the eye test, looked like he has it. And the 345 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 8: one thing that you can notice is that Levis was 346 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 8: struggling against man. But when he had his glimpses, it 347 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 8: was against zone when Pittsburgh was in zone, and luckily, 348 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 8: the Bucks play zone at probably the highest rate in 349 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 8: the entire league at least eighty percent of the time 350 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 8: the Bucks are in the zone. So the matchup four 351 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 8: zone with Levis, who's a rookie, pans out much better 352 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 8: than the Steelers last week. So Titans a plus one 353 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 8: and a half. I'm believer in Lewis. The matchup's good 354 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 8: on defense, and the Bucks just aren't going to be 355 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 8: like they can't run the ball like in general, and 356 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 8: they're definitely not going to be able to run the 357 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 8: ball against his Titans team. And Baker put up thirty 358 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 8: plus against the Texans, and I just don't see that 359 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 8: happening against his Titans defense where the secondary has had problems. 360 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 8: But at the same time, like I just they're not 361 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 8: going to be able to run the ball at all. 362 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 8: And I'm fine with Baker having to beat me because 363 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 8: history tells us that that's probably not it's going to happen. 364 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 4: A lot less than likely. 365 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 8: So in the last cherry, which if I just cut 366 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 8: out everything that I just said before and you just 367 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 8: bet on this one angle like you'd probably fine. But 368 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 8: I've said on this podcast one hundred times how much 369 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 8: I love Rabel. We have Rabel worst Todd Bowles Todd 370 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 8: Bowles is just a pure fade, and we're getting Mike 371 00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 8: Frable at a small number, and this number is going 372 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 8: from a pick them to plus one. I think they 373 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 8: were a favorite at one time. So as long as 374 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 8: it really doesn't get higher than like, I would still 375 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 8: take it at any of those three. But Mike Able 376 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 8: versus Todd Bowles done easy. Titans plus one and a half. 377 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: Okay. 378 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 6: And as it relates to Will Levis, Grant has an 379 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 6: angle on the quarterback of the Titans. 380 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, strangely enough, I like the Titans to win this game. 381 00:17:56,640 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 2: I'm right there with Luke. I'm pretty much everything except 382 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 2: for Will Levis is going to be good. He's not 383 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 2: good at I mean, he's still kind of just scrambling 384 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 2: like kind of buffering whenever. He's throwing a lot of times, 385 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,359 Speaker 2: and he's gotten lucky a lot of times. I mean, 386 00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 2: we look at the first week two of the DeAndre 387 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: Hopkins passing touchdowns. One he had like ten yards of separation, 388 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 2: the other one probably should have been pi and the 389 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 2: defender just stopped. Even last week, he's getting lucky with 390 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 2: some of these big throws. He kind of reminds me 391 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 2: right now of Josh Allen, like his first year in 392 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 2: the league, kind of slings it kind of really raw, 393 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,680 Speaker 2: Like I believe Lewis is going to be really good, 394 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 2: and I believe he's not that bad right now, but 395 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 2: I also know the Titans probably gonna try and run 396 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 2: the ball a decent amount. Last week short week, going 397 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 2: up against Pittsburgh, it was kind of a weird spot. 398 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 2: He came out just absolutely chucking the ball, then stopped 399 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:52,919 Speaker 2: and then had to throw a ton later on the 400 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 2: game where he didn't look quite as good late in 401 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,919 Speaker 2: the game. I don't think he's quite there. It is 402 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 2: basically what it is, and two twenty well seems like 403 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 2: a low line. It might even go higher than that. Realistically, 404 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 2: I'm taking it now. I'll probably end up taking it 405 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,439 Speaker 2: again for more money closer to game time because everyone 406 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,439 Speaker 2: kind of saw the first two weeks and believes Levis 407 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 2: is good, but realistically he has ways to go before 408 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 2: he actually becomes good, and the Titans are still going 409 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 2: to try and run the ball and the ground. We 410 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 2: look at Derrick Henry's numbers every single week, blowout or 411 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 2: they're trailing most of the game, He's going to get fourteen, 412 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 2: maybe fifteen rush attempts it's a close game or they're leading, 413 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 2: he's going to get thirty in those spots and they're 414 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: just going to try and hammer the ball on the ground. 415 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 2: So anytime it's a close game, the Titans tend to 416 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 2: run the ball a lot, going to keep the ball 417 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,280 Speaker 2: a little bit out of Levis' hands. I don't know 418 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 2: if Rabel actually likes Levis or not, but the number 419 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 2: just seems a little bit high. Not a great matchic 420 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 2: going up against Tampa Bay. I know they've been a 421 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 2: little bit worse defensively than we thought they would this year, 422 00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 2: but still not a great matchup. I think that they're 423 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 2: going to run a little bit mo or conservative offense. 424 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 2: We saw Levis throw the ball thirty nine times last week, 425 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 2: but again most of that was in the second half 426 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: when they had to try and come back and miss pass, 427 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 2: miss pass, big play, miss past, miss bet, so kind 428 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 2: of adds up. I don't expect the same volume. I 429 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 2: expect something similar to what we saw in Atlanta where 430 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 2: he ended up with two thirty eight yards, but that 431 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 2: was with several big plays, including a sixty one yard touchdown. 432 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 6: Okay, yeah, and he was like, I think what Levis, 433 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 6: remember correctly in that Thursday night game, he was around. 434 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 1: One eighty nine, like hovering around one ninety. 435 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 6: And then all those yards he accumulated against the Steelers 436 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 6: were in the that final drive. 437 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 4: What was it. 438 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 2: I don't think you said the actual beat Levis under 439 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 2: two twenty and a half pass. 440 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: Yards passing yards under Yeah, any concu. 441 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 6: Real quick an, any concern And again you might be 442 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 6: right grant just on the game script, but Derek Henry 443 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 6: snapcount was down compared to Spears. Any concerned about that 444 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 6: as far as as the Titans running the ball? 445 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 2: No, So, I mean we kind of see this. Oh. 446 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 2: Throughout the course of the season, snapcount between Spears and 447 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:08,239 Speaker 2: Henry has been pretty similar almost every single game. Like 448 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:12,120 Speaker 2: the favorite Spears when they're trailing, favors Henry a little 449 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 2: bit when they're ahead, But it's the volume, like when 450 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 2: Henry's actually on the field, and snapcount really doesn't matter 451 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 2: as much as the volume, and the volume has been 452 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 2: fan they've run him a ton when he's on the field. 453 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 2: So even in games where Spears and Henry have similar snapcounts, 454 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 2: the touches for Henry are like two x what they 455 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 2: are for Spears. Like maybe even more than that. So 456 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 2: when Henry's on the field, they're generally running the ball 457 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 2: a lot, and it'll favor more if it's a close 458 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 2: game to have Henry on the field more. It's just snapcounts. 459 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 2: While it's something we look into a lot. This is 460 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 2: a weird scenario where they just want to give the 461 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 2: ball to Henry's that's it. When he's in the game, 462 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,880 Speaker 2: just give it to him, grind out two, three, four, 463 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 2: five yards each time, and then hope for a big run. 464 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: Okay, good stuff. 465 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 6: I had to, you know, clear my eyes here for 466 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 6: a second. Go to the round of picks, and I'm 467 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 6: seeing it anytime touchdown bet and Joe Gollant's not here. 468 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: So Brandon, you have an anytime touchdown pick this week? 469 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 2: I do. 470 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 7: I think it's my first anytime touchdown pick that I've 471 00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,560 Speaker 7: done ever on this podcast. So in Joe's senier, give 472 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 7: me Austin Eckeler to scoring anytime touchdown against the Lions 473 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:20,880 Speaker 7: and even the plus one hundred odds. 474 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 3: And that's what caught my eye. 475 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 7: I in my article at the end of each week, 476 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 7: I have to make a pick for every single team, 477 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 7: so sometimes I have to go digging a little bit, 478 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 7: and I had to go digging because I like the Lions, 479 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 7: right that was our look I had last week. 480 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,520 Speaker 3: We debated at the end of the show, are we 481 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 3: sure this is the right? Number? 482 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 7: Was plus one and a half. It's now Lions minus three. 483 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 7: I looked at taking them again because I still like 484 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,680 Speaker 7: the Lions even there, but I had to dig a 485 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 7: little bit sometime to say, Okay, well, where's the value 486 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 7: on the Chargers. I think there's real value on Austin Eckler. 487 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 7: So this is the highest total on the board this weekend, 488 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,240 Speaker 7: forty eight and a half. So with all the low 489 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 7: scoring early games, this is the one that we think 490 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 7: should have a lot of points. Eckeler is totally back. 491 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,120 Speaker 7: He's getting his usual snap counts, usual carries per game. 492 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 7: He was my preseason rushing touchdowns leader. Pick obviously not 493 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 7: gonna happen now with the injury time that he messed. 494 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,919 Speaker 7: But Kellen Moore likes to run the football into the 495 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 7: end zone like that's how his offenses have gone over 496 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 7: the years. I think all the Cowboys rushing touchdowns that 497 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 7: we've had so we've seen I believe eight rushing touchdowns, 498 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 7: just only three from Eckler because he's been missing all 499 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 7: the time, but he's also getting his reception targets back. 500 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 7: Detroit is top five against wide receiver one. The Chargers 501 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 7: only have a wide receiver one. It's just Keenan Allen 502 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 7: and everyone else is hurt right now. So I think 503 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 7: that's another spot where anytime touchdown versus a rushing touchdown, 504 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 7: I think Eckler is always gonna be a threat to 505 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 7: catch one touchdowns. This year, Eckler's played five games. He 506 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 7: scored at least one touchdown on three of them. So 507 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 7: that's already better than fifty to fifty, which is the 508 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,120 Speaker 7: odds we're seeing here. Go back to last year, he's 509 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 7: scored a touchdown and fourteen out of the last nineteen 510 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 7: games that he played, its seventy four percent hit rate, 511 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,400 Speaker 7: that would be more like minus three hundred, and we're 512 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 7: getting a plus one hundred here. So I asked Jill, 513 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 7: I know he keeps track of all the odds here. 514 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,639 Speaker 7: He said that Echeler has been at least minus one 515 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 7: twenty as high as minus two hundred every game this 516 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 7: season and last season as well. The last time he's 517 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 7: had a plus in front of his number was week 518 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 7: one twenty twenty one, so plus one hundred. I think 519 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 7: he's just way under priced since he's kind of been 520 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 7: away and we forget how much of a touchdown machine 521 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 7: he is. I honestly would put him as the most 522 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 7: likely touchdown score this weekend. 523 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 3: And yes, Christian McCaffery is playing this weekend. 524 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,920 Speaker 7: So that's how confident I would be at the same 525 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 7: book where he's plus one hundred, he is plus six 526 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 7: hundred to get in the end zone twice. He's done 527 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 7: that in six of those last nineteen games. That's thirty 528 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 7: two percent versus implied fourteen percent. So you know, I 529 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 7: love my escalators. I think this is one to sprinkle 530 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 7: a little bit on the double touchdown there as well. 531 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,120 Speaker 7: We're gonna go a lot of points in this one. 532 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,160 Speaker 7: I still like the Lions, but give me Austin Eckler 533 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,479 Speaker 7: anytime touchdown plus one hundred. 534 00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:06,880 Speaker 1: All right, very good. 535 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 6: Yeah, you found the end zone twice against the Jets 536 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 6: on Monday Night this past week. 537 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 1: All right, Luke, final pick for Week ten. 538 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,720 Speaker 8: I'm gonna go with these Saints laying two and a half. 539 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 8: There are threes out there at the Vikings, which I 540 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 8: mean I was on the Vikings last week and seeing 541 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 8: what Dobbs did was just incredible. But that was a 542 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,959 Speaker 8: very emotional game, and I just think that the market's 543 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 8: over valuing Dobbs at this point, where the first couple 544 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,639 Speaker 8: of games when he was with the Cardinals, like he 545 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 8: looked great and then everything fell off a cliff to 546 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 8: like who he actually was, and he was a bottom 547 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 8: two or three quarterback in EPA in the entire league. 548 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 8: And when a backup comes into the game like. 549 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 4: Halfway through or whatever, it was. 550 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 8: Like usually you tend to see teams kind of caught 551 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 8: off guard because this isn't the. 552 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 4: Guy that they prepared for. And that is probably. 553 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,240 Speaker 8: Somewhat of what we saw with Dobbs against the Falcons 554 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 8: last week, which really, like his passing numbers were tough. 555 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,400 Speaker 8: I know, he didn't know any of the plays and 556 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 8: like the success came from his legs, which he is 557 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 8: way faster than I ever thought he was. But this 558 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,719 Speaker 8: is just a spot where I hate laying it, especially 559 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 8: on the road with the Saints, but they have looked 560 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 8: a lot better and the Saints are completely healthy and 561 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,720 Speaker 8: the Vikings are not. You got Daris saw probably going 562 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 8: to miss Osbourne, probably going to miss Hockinson, were not sure. 563 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 8: So if you're telling me that Ladmore, who's probably one 564 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 8: of the corners that does the most shadowing in the 565 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 8: entire league, is on Addison, Like who else is going 566 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 8: to be making a play? Like not that cam Akers 567 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 8: is like a threat, but he just tore his achilles again, 568 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 8: So like I just don't know who Josh Dobbs will 569 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 8: throw to or who will make a play on this 570 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,919 Speaker 8: Vikings defense if those three guys are out and the 571 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 8: Saints have put up eighty points in the last ten quarters, 572 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 8: So an offense that was struggling. I love Taysom Hill 573 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 8: and I think he really is the difference. And I 574 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 8: mean that dude is just an absolute like monster in 575 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,360 Speaker 8: the red zone, Like just take Car out and put 576 00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,920 Speaker 8: Tayson in it, like Hill in like that he's going 577 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 8: to get hurt with just how he runs. But eighty 578 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 8: points in the last ten quarters for an offense I 579 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 8: was struggling is definitely starting. 580 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 4: To catch his breath. 581 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,919 Speaker 8: I guess you could say in Car like you do 582 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,240 Speaker 8: not like the Saints team and Car when they have 583 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 8: to win by margin, like that is an auto fade, 584 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 8: Like that is one of the principles, Like we saw 585 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 8: it last week, which is exactly why you played the Bears, 586 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 8: because the Saints could have covered that game one hundred times, 587 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 8: but they just still didn't. So like when Tom win 588 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 8: as a home dog, Saints as a big favorite, like 589 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 8: those are like two of the principles, like you just 590 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 8: it's just automatic. But Carr is a small Favorite's actually 591 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 8: twelve and eight against the spread, which is a very 592 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 8: small sample size, but he's had success relative to I 593 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 8: think he's like at thirty percent as a big favorite, 594 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 8: So I'm more comfortable two and a half three whatever 595 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 8: it is. Fading Dobbs and his Vikings defense, Like if 596 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 8: you look at the receivers that they played in the 597 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 8: last five weeks, you got Carolina, Chiefs, Chicago, the Niners 598 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,719 Speaker 8: in Green Bay, and out of those teams, like elite 599 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,800 Speaker 8: receivers that they've played, I would say Dj Moore, Brand, 600 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 8: Brandon Ayuk. 601 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:19,040 Speaker 4: And that's it. 602 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 8: And outside of those, like they really haven't been tested. 603 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 8: So against the Saints defense, who's elite? I would say 604 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 8: if his Vikings defense has looked better, but it does 605 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,360 Speaker 8: feel like somewhat of a I don't want to say 606 00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 8: as risk, but like who's really tested them? So I'll 607 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 8: take Saints Lang two and a half right now. I've 608 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 8: definitely look for the two and a halfs three totally fine, 609 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 8: definitely wouldn't go higher than three. 610 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 4: I don't think it's gonna get there. So Saints has 611 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 4: a small fifth. 612 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,280 Speaker 6: So do we know yet on Justin Jefferson, if he's 613 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 6: gonna play, I'm assuming he's not like. 614 00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 8: His name, right, yeah, like I didn't even like I 615 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 8: know he's They opened the practice window and he practiced 616 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 8: yesterday in a limited capacity. 617 00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 4: But I would be shocked. 618 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 8: If he plays, which does play, how healthy it is, 619 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 8: But that would definitely if he does play, it still 620 00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 8: be on the Saints, but we definitely would. I would 621 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,240 Speaker 8: assume it would come down to like one and a half, 622 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 8: which would be great. 623 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:13,600 Speaker 1: Okay, all right, very good. 624 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 6: Hawkinson limited participant Wednesday, and like you said, unlikely we 625 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 6: see kJ Osborne with the concussion protocol. And for the record, 626 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 6: on the subject of any time touchdowns, Taysom Hill two 627 00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 6: to one this week, third in that game as far 628 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 6: as odds are concerned. All right, Grant take us out, Grant, 629 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 6: good job this, I just read the pick a good job, Grant. 630 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 1: What's the last one? Give it to us. 631 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 2: The last one is the Colts minus one and a half, 632 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 2: and job Chris is pretty simple. I mean people are 633 00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 2: a little bit higher on the Patriots after they beat Buffalo. 634 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 2: Was that two weeks ago? But or three weeks ago. 635 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 2: There is a big, big, big difference between Belichick in 636 00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 2: divisional games and Belichick and non DIVISI games this year 637 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,840 Speaker 2: to five against the spread, own five overall and non 638 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 2: divisional games been outscored by like one hundred points almost 639 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 2: this season by nondivisual opponents. He's been absolutely terrible in 640 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 2: non division games since mac Jones came around. He hasn't 641 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 2: really been great as a home dog either. Two and 642 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 2: six against the spread. They are just not the same team. 643 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 2: And the Colts, on the other side, they're a lot 644 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 2: better team than people give them credit for. I know 645 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 2: that Richardson not being in the lineup doesn't help, but 646 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 2: Minshew has been a serviceable quarterback and their run game 647 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,280 Speaker 2: is really solid. They tend to play in their game 648 00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 2: script around their opponents, so sometimes Minch will throw the 649 00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 2: ball forty times, sometimes they run the ball forty times. 650 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:46,440 Speaker 2: Probably gonna be more of a passing game here, but 651 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 2: still like Patriots have close to one hundred point point 652 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 2: differential this season and have been blown out massively in 653 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,600 Speaker 2: almost every non divisional game so far this season. That 654 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 2: got beat by thirty four against the Saints, thirty five 655 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 2: against Dallas probably could have been worse than that one. 656 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 2: They did keep it close with the Eagles and the Commanders, 657 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 2: but Commanders really not a great team, and neither is Vegas. 658 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 2: Like they haven't played these great opponents. I mean, the 659 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:18,040 Speaker 2: Saints aren't a great team, They're good enough, but the 660 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,080 Speaker 2: only real good non divisional opponent they've played is the Cowboys, 661 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 2: which they got crushed by. They're losing to bad teams 662 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 2: in non divisional games, like the Colts are the better 663 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 2: team and pretty much every single facet and one and 664 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 2: a half points. This spread, I think is probably I 665 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if it moves to three in this spot. 666 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,960 Speaker 2: I'm getting it early. I think it's going to keep moving, 667 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 2: and we need to mention that Bill Belichick, I think 668 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 2: it's fully checked out. As he walks out of someone's 669 00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,960 Speaker 2: house this morning, I think I think he's seventy one, 670 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 2: doesn't have Brandy anymore. 671 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 1: Way, he's going to Germany. Whoever, maybe whoever he was. 672 00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:57,720 Speaker 1: He's just he's speaking. 673 00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 3: It's a big trip. 674 00:31:58,360 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: Coming up, you know. 675 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 4: But gosh, there's a clip that released of him. 676 00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:03,880 Speaker 1: No I saw it. I saw. 677 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 4: But the Pats are so bad, Like, yeah, look. 678 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 1: Did you listen carefully? There no Patriots this week? 679 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 8: Right, No, And honestly, like and speaking as a victim 680 00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 8: of the Patriots this year, like this team. 681 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 4: Is like totally reminding me of like the Browns a couple. 682 00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 8: Of years ago, where like they were the quote unquote 683 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 8: sharp side every week because there's just like value and 684 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 8: the Browns just continued to lose and not cover. And 685 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 8: like I was probably a victim of that a couple 686 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 8: of years ago. And if this gets to. 687 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 4: Three, those will get gobbled up right away and I'll 688 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 4: come back down. But it's just god, they're so bad. 689 00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:40,880 Speaker 2: Oh I just can't. 690 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 4: I'm where my Patriots hoodie right now. And Jesus he. 691 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,360 Speaker 1: Kind of leaves up to Honor Bill. Good job, all right, he. 692 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,400 Speaker 8: Should get They just need to get a new GM, 693 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 8: that's what they need to do. He can be coached whatever, Just. 694 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,560 Speaker 4: No more jamming. 695 00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,239 Speaker 8: Especially hate drafts, like he cannot draft Marvin Harrison if 696 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 8: he drafts Marvin Herdison Junior are like hooray, but that 697 00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 8: is the only way he's not going to be good 698 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 8: is if the Patriots draft Marvin Harrison, because every receiver 699 00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:09,520 Speaker 8: they draft sucks. 700 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 6: Stay tuned for Spring twenty twenty four when Luke Swayne 701 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 6: joins us for the NFL Draft episodes on the Action 702 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,760 Speaker 6: Network podcast, where the Patriots will be selecting high and 703 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 6: they'll probably trade down and get like three second round picks. 704 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. 705 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: Used bonus code Action when signing. 706 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 6: Up to get up to fifteen hundred dollars paid back 707 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 6: in bonus bets if your first bet loses. For new 708 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 6: users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, 709 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 6: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 710 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older. 711 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. 712 00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:52,479 Speaker 6: So, as Brandon mentioned earlier, he got the Detroit Lions 713 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:54,720 Speaker 6: as an underdog at plus one and a half last 714 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 6: week as his look ahead, so we'll monitor how that goes. 715 00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,080 Speaker 6: The look Aheads have been good to us here on 716 00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 6: the podcast look Ahead this week. When you include the 717 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 6: look Aheads, we're at five hundred for the season overall 718 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:04,720 Speaker 6: on the Best Bets pod. 719 00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:08,919 Speaker 1: But this week, Brandon, you're going to a team you've 720 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,920 Speaker 1: backed before in an a rah ra spot. Not a 721 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:12,680 Speaker 1: blah blah, but a. 722 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,160 Speaker 3: Ra raw That's right. 723 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, guys, I almost went with the grossest look Ahead 724 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,319 Speaker 7: pick of the year. I'll give you a little half 725 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:25,719 Speaker 7: bonus look Ahead here. Giants plus eight Tommy DeVito in Washington. 726 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 7: Washington's an eight point favorite against an actual NFL football team, 727 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 7: which I think the Giants still are. That line has 728 00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,200 Speaker 7: moved nine and a half points since the preseason number. 729 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 7: You can't tell me Tommy DeVito is nine and a 730 00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:41,319 Speaker 7: half points worse than what he was what this team was. 731 00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 3: So I almost almost at that one. Those games are 732 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 3: usually close. 733 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,759 Speaker 7: But then I got to the Pittsburgh game and I 734 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,520 Speaker 7: got to have my raw ra Steelers plus four and 735 00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,879 Speaker 7: a half at the Browns. I think the Steelers win 736 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 7: this weekend at home against the Packers, who are not 737 00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:00,000 Speaker 7: very good. I had the Steelers as my hot red team. 738 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,719 Speaker 7: I looked at them again for this podcast We talked 739 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,920 Speaker 7: about the Browns game earlier. They don't have a lot 740 00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 7: of offense right now, they're in Baltimore. They're big underdogs 741 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 7: that could get ugly. So that's the reason to grab 742 00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 7: this Now. Last five weeks, the Browns are dead last 743 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:18,240 Speaker 7: offensively in DVOA. They're dead last and success rate thirty 744 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:23,200 Speaker 7: six percent success rate for their offense. And Steelers, actually, 745 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,160 Speaker 7: the metrics really like the Steelers. I watch the same 746 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,399 Speaker 7: Steelers you guys do. I don't think it looks great. 747 00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 7: I don't like Mett Canada. And then every week I 748 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 7: look and I'm looking at futures, like all right now, 749 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,239 Speaker 7: can I take the Steelers win total under? And every 750 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,919 Speaker 7: week it's like, actually the value is still on the over. 751 00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 7: There's still some value in the division. 752 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:42,279 Speaker 3: Like what the heck? 753 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 7: I don't understand. I think part of the reason is 754 00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,279 Speaker 7: Pittsburgh has played the number one strength of schedule so far, 755 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 7: so the numbers, you know, DVOWAY and some of those 756 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,320 Speaker 7: metrics are going to factor that in, and the numbers 757 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,439 Speaker 7: are a bit deflated, and they just they don't look 758 00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 7: that good. But Pittsburgh's defense, I think is closer to 759 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 7: Cleveland's defense than the Browns offenses to the Steelers, and 760 00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 7: that's the big difference to me here, and then all 761 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 7: the trends get to the raw round a second. But 762 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,759 Speaker 7: Ken Stefanski, Brown's coach bad division bad as a favorite 763 00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 7: twenty nine percent cover rate in the division, thirty eight 764 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,600 Speaker 7: percent cover rate as a favorite, two and eight ats 765 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 7: as a division favorite. And then old raw raw Mike 766 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 7: Tomlin week five forward as an underdog seventy one percent. 767 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,759 Speaker 7: It's better in the division seventy four percent as a 768 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:35,040 Speaker 7: division underdog. He in those games is seventeen and nine 769 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:39,280 Speaker 7: straight up as a division underdog fifty eight percent ROI 770 00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 7: this is another game with a low total, so it's 771 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 7: four and a half points a lot of points. I'll 772 00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,719 Speaker 7: take the Steelers on the road. Browns and Steelers have 773 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:53,480 Speaker 7: played forty nine times this century. Cleveland has won nine times. 774 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 3: They are four and. 775 00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,680 Speaker 7: A half point favorites with Deshaun Watson and no offense, 776 00:36:58,040 --> 00:36:59,520 Speaker 7: No thank you Steelers. 777 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:00,720 Speaker 3: Four and a half and. 778 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:03,640 Speaker 7: I'll take the money line two plus one eighty raw 779 00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:04,720 Speaker 7: raw Mike Tomlin. 780 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 5: I probably do have a talent for understanding people, but 781 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:08,720 Speaker 5: is it a talent? 782 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:09,319 Speaker 2: Is not? 783 00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,759 Speaker 5: Is listening when they talking? For real coaches like the 784 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,239 Speaker 5: think we listen. Coaches don't listen. They wait for news 785 00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:17,560 Speaker 5: mouse to stop moving. 786 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,920 Speaker 6: Geah to bundo, take your blah blah and shove it 787 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:21,239 Speaker 6: for next week. 788 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,920 Speaker 7: I think it was right on that blobl I like 789 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,360 Speaker 7: the bloby idea, but this is a rah Ras spot. 790 00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,760 Speaker 1: Really was good, the blobot thing. I really enjoyed that. Okay, 791 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 1: that'll do it. 792 00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,960 Speaker 6: Here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week 793 00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,799 Speaker 6: ten Best Bets episode, again, we're presented by our friends 794 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 6: at bet MGM. If you miss the full betting preview 795 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,600 Speaker 6: with Stucky and Raybawn the Sunday six pack, that episode 796 00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,240 Speaker 6: is available now, and be sure to tune in Monday 797 00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 6: morning for our weekly recap episodes. We've got Jill Galot 798 00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,160 Speaker 6: and Evan Abrams. Brandon stops by with his hot read 799 00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,800 Speaker 6: as well, and as always, don't forget to download the 800 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,200 Speaker 6: free award winning Action Network ap to see all these guys, 801 00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 6: as well as our other contributors with the NFL at 802 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,799 Speaker 6: Action Network to see their picks as well. Very good, 803 00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,799 Speaker 6: thanks too, Luke and Brandon Grant me for joining us 804 00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 6: this week. Brendan Glasheen, thanks for listening to the NFL 805 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,080 Speaker 6: Week ten Best Bets episode You're in the Action Network 806 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:18,600 Speaker 6: podcast We'll talk to you again next week. 807 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 8: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 808 00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,960 Speaker 8: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 809 00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 8: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler