WEBVTT - Alibaba Splits Into Six Units

0:00:01.280 --> 0:00:05.640
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and

0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.400
<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:13.640
<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:18.600
<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:24.319
<v Speaker 1>We've been talking about Ali Baba, certainly a name that

0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:27.640
<v Speaker 1>is front and center today. It's up about fourteen percent

0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:30.160
<v Speaker 1>as we speak, jumping. I think it's the biggest intra

0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:33.120
<v Speaker 1>day climbed since January. It all has to do with

0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:35.600
<v Speaker 1>plans to split into six units. So we want to

0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:37.760
<v Speaker 1>get to the news and the impact it's having on

0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.440
<v Speaker 1>the overall Chinese names at trade here in the United States.

0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:42.400
<v Speaker 1>With more on the news, let's bring in Bloomberg News

0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Equities reporter that follows the Chinese ADRs. The trade in

0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:48.839
<v Speaker 1>the US is chen is here in our Bluemberg interactive

0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:52.520
<v Speaker 1>broker studio. Ishan tell us about the news. First of all,

0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:55.960
<v Speaker 1>I feel like it's interesting that Jack Mak comes back

0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:59.240
<v Speaker 1>after missing for a year. That was yesterday and then

0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.440
<v Speaker 1>we get this news today. So walk us through the

0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.320
<v Speaker 1>news and maybe the significance of it. Yeah, great, great. First,

0:01:04.360 --> 0:01:07.960
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me today and you know, it's definitely

0:01:07.959 --> 0:01:11.440
<v Speaker 1>a very interesting week for Ali Baba. Today. The news

0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.640
<v Speaker 1>is showing it like a radical restructure and plan for

0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.800
<v Speaker 1>Ali Blabba because and now it's going to split the

0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:23.840
<v Speaker 1>whole business unit Empire into six individeo units including e commerce,

0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:29.000
<v Speaker 1>cloud and also media, and it potentially pays the road

0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:33.520
<v Speaker 1>for them to raise funds and eventually explore the IPOs

0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:38.399
<v Speaker 1>of individeo units. So unlock's value that investors sees potentially right,

0:01:38.520 --> 0:01:41.560
<v Speaker 1>and I think it's more than a lock value because

0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:44.360
<v Speaker 1>you know what analysts and investors are telling me, they

0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:47.720
<v Speaker 1>see it as a wing wing situation for Ali Baba

0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.680
<v Speaker 1>and Beijing. So first of all, it's for sure like

0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.760
<v Speaker 1>a lock value for investors if you look at do

0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:56.960
<v Speaker 1>like a mass on the you know, some of parts

0:01:56.960 --> 0:02:00.000
<v Speaker 1>of each individ units is treating like it should be

0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:03.080
<v Speaker 1>way higher than currently where it is trading now. But

0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.880
<v Speaker 1>also thinking about from the regulatory perspective, as we all

0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:09.600
<v Speaker 1>know that Beijing over the past two years have been

0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:13.120
<v Speaker 1>having this sweeping crackdown on the tag industry and the

0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.960
<v Speaker 1>main concern was that, you know, the concentrated power of

0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:21.640
<v Speaker 1>Ali Baba and many tag firms is not helpful or

0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:26.120
<v Speaker 1>healthy in terms of competition or innovation in the industry.

0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.480
<v Speaker 1>So now that Ali blahbla what is doing is to

0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:34.240
<v Speaker 1>break the big empire into pieces, so in a way

0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:40.080
<v Speaker 1>that should potentially is the concern from Beijing from the regulators,

0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:43.600
<v Speaker 1>and this is a move also should you know, get

0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.440
<v Speaker 1>the blessing from them. And it's great to have you

0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:48.239
<v Speaker 1>hear each and because obviously you're one of our star

0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:50.520
<v Speaker 1>reporters on the Equis team, but I also know this

0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:53.320
<v Speaker 1>is a rare move right when you're thinking about technology

0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:57.080
<v Speaker 1>companies specifically based in China. So what do you think

0:02:57.160 --> 0:02:59.800
<v Speaker 1>this means for the industry and could potentially be template

0:02:59.840 --> 0:03:04.200
<v Speaker 1>for other companies to follow. Yeah, that's a great question. Actually,

0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:07.120
<v Speaker 1>I have seen analysts and investors saying this as a

0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:10.440
<v Speaker 1>game changer for the industry going forward, and it could

0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.320
<v Speaker 1>serve as a blueprint for other firms such as like

0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:18.040
<v Speaker 1>JD dot Com, Tenson or bay Do to explore a

0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:23.920
<v Speaker 1>similar paths. And Tenson could be a most most reasonable

0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.720
<v Speaker 1>candidate here for a breakup because it has huge influence

0:03:27.880 --> 0:03:33.720
<v Speaker 1>just as bah Bah, and it has different business lines. Actually,

0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:37.160
<v Speaker 1>I already started to divestis some of the units, but

0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:41.120
<v Speaker 1>still there are romantic entities could become standard long segments.

0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.320
<v Speaker 1>Hen would Jack might have done this without the Chinese

0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:49.440
<v Speaker 1>government kind of putting pressure on the internet sector. And

0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:51.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering if this if Ali Baba was in the

0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.360
<v Speaker 1>United States, would US regulators you think, similarly been saying

0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:56.520
<v Speaker 1>we've got to push for a breakup. I'm curious what

0:03:57.080 --> 0:03:59.160
<v Speaker 1>analysts how they're weighing in on that, if they are,

0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:03.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm I haven't seen enough reporting there, but it's a

0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:09.360
<v Speaker 1>very good question. And I was saying, you brought up

0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Jack Mah. I think it's interesting because this news today

0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:16.880
<v Speaker 1>also callincidized with the news we saw yesterday that Jack

0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:21.600
<v Speaker 1>mar was spotted back in China again after a year

0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:24.640
<v Speaker 1>more than a year of like traveling or staying abroad.

0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:28.040
<v Speaker 1>Right um, the market of course took that also as

0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:32.239
<v Speaker 1>a very positive sign because Beijing right now is pushing

0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:36.000
<v Speaker 1>and saying that it wanted to support private enterprise to

0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:40.359
<v Speaker 1>revive its economy, but it really needs to gain the

0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.839
<v Speaker 1>confidence from the companies and investors after you know, a

0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.240
<v Speaker 1>series of crackdowns of different industries. So now that Jack

0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.640
<v Speaker 1>Mall is coming back and then with this split plan

0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:53.760
<v Speaker 1>appeared to you know, pay road for you know, the

0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:57.240
<v Speaker 1>company's future. These are all like a turning the sentiment

0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:01.039
<v Speaker 1>of Ali blah blah, but also Chinese ado US in general. Yeah,

0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:02.760
<v Speaker 1>they were all up today, right, or a lot of

0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.719
<v Speaker 1>them were. And I know you've also covered different calls,

0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:08.520
<v Speaker 1>say like with Marco Kolonovic over at JP Mortgage, he

0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:11.240
<v Speaker 1>was talking about buying the dip on Chinese equities in

0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:15.480
<v Speaker 1>this particular back even during right in early October, during

0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:18.240
<v Speaker 1>that whole reopening type trade, and some of that had

0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:22.400
<v Speaker 1>paid off. But are you seeing any other analysts kind

0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:26.000
<v Speaker 1>of still calling for maybe still continuing to buy this

0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:27.880
<v Speaker 1>or do you think it's run its course? Because it's

0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:31.080
<v Speaker 1>interesting if you're looking at the right as far as

0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.599
<v Speaker 1>how they've performed so far this year more probably kind

0:05:33.600 --> 0:05:35.960
<v Speaker 1>of flat, not not really obviously so the big rally

0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.800
<v Speaker 1>in the fil quarter right because on the JPM call

0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:43.120
<v Speaker 1>we walked together on a story jazz and at that

0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:46.640
<v Speaker 1>time I think the call the mancisis is about the reopening.

0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:51.599
<v Speaker 1>But remember that reopened rally we have staying froll November

0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:55.640
<v Speaker 1>last year, have fizzle outs a bit, especially after a

0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:58.720
<v Speaker 1>quarter of you know, like Earning's prey. There's quite a

0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:03.200
<v Speaker 1>bounce off of that low right, casino stocks in hotels, yeah,

0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:07.239
<v Speaker 1>also like a travel related names, but it has already

0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:10.600
<v Speaker 1>played out, so investors now at the point of they

0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.240
<v Speaker 1>wanted to see, all what is the fundamental value of

0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:17.560
<v Speaker 1>these companies. They are focused on the regulatories, certainty and certainty,

0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:20.320
<v Speaker 1>but this news definitely help in terms of, you know,

0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:23.080
<v Speaker 1>the regulatory perspect that's what I want to escation because

0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:25.360
<v Speaker 1>I do feel like depending on I felt like we

0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:27.960
<v Speaker 1>went through a period of even we start with the pandemic,

0:06:28.080 --> 0:06:29.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, shut down, open up, like it was just

0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:33.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of startling. And even with the tech sector, China

0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:36.919
<v Speaker 1>has been very clear about wanting to be performing in

0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:39.400
<v Speaker 1>the global economy on a higher tech level, like this

0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.760
<v Speaker 1>is important to the global growth and the growth in

0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:46.400
<v Speaker 1>China specifically, but there's a lot of oversight about privacy

0:06:46.520 --> 0:06:51.160
<v Speaker 1>and data gathering. And I do wonder does a move

0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:56.040
<v Speaker 1>like this come tech entrepreneurs in China and investors when

0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.000
<v Speaker 1>it comes to investing in these names, or is it

0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.480
<v Speaker 1>a reminder that China and Chinese officials could at any

0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:04.080
<v Speaker 1>moment be like, you know what, I still don't like

0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:06.479
<v Speaker 1>how big this company is or the impact it is

0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:08.080
<v Speaker 1>and that they could move in. I'm just wondering if

0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:11.840
<v Speaker 1>things are settling down in terms of that, right, I

0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:17.400
<v Speaker 1>think that's a very good question. And back to the

0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.800
<v Speaker 1>news here. I think one question investors are asking on

0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:25.640
<v Speaker 1>today's news is where are like this potential in the

0:07:25.800 --> 0:07:28.480
<v Speaker 1>video units or Spain offs of Ali Babago into a

0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:32.240
<v Speaker 1>list in Hong Kong or in China the domester market

0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:35.600
<v Speaker 1>because ever since you know, did the IPO debacle in

0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:38.040
<v Speaker 1>New York, right, Beijing has been calling for the so

0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:42.600
<v Speaker 1>called homecoming listing of Chinese companies. So these are reasonable

0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:46.520
<v Speaker 1>speculations that even they break up and eventually list some

0:07:46.600 --> 0:07:49.440
<v Speaker 1>of the units, maybe they offer the shares or it

0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.200
<v Speaker 1>should the shares closer to home. So if they do that,

0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:56.120
<v Speaker 1>what regulation absolutely say? What kind of message does that sense? Right?

0:07:56.160 --> 0:08:00.520
<v Speaker 1>I think it's in line with where Beijing is pushing

0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:05.000
<v Speaker 1>for more regulations in terms of the listing share offering,

0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:09.480
<v Speaker 1>and they also wanted to give access to domestic investors

0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:12.800
<v Speaker 1>to all them trade and all these you know national

0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:15.600
<v Speaker 1>bit like bit tech firms. So maybe no listings in

0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:20.600
<v Speaker 1>the US potential, Yeah, that's no. I just think it's

0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:22.520
<v Speaker 1>really interesting in terms of the sector and how it's

0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:25.560
<v Speaker 1>been playing out. Rye No, definitely, so really we don't

0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:27.600
<v Speaker 1>have a ton of details yet right as well as

0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:30.600
<v Speaker 1>the timetable could be moving forward on this because I'm

0:08:30.600 --> 0:08:34.520
<v Speaker 1>sure investors are eaching to know. Yeah, yeah, I like

0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.880
<v Speaker 1>today's I think the first step in terms of splitting

0:08:38.000 --> 0:08:41.160
<v Speaker 1>up and couldn't potentially paved the road for a wave

0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.520
<v Speaker 1>of IPOs, But we haven't seen any details in terms

0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:48.720
<v Speaker 1>of timeline or you know what, what is the IPO

0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:51.640
<v Speaker 1>plans for the individual units and still doing cost cutting

0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.440
<v Speaker 1>to share up the bottom line, so that that's business

0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.000
<v Speaker 1>as usual. Um, thank you so much. It's an important

0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:59.439
<v Speaker 1>sector and I love talking about those Chinese names that

0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.720
<v Speaker 1>trade here in the United States. Ishanshen, thank you so much.

0:09:02.880 --> 0:09:05.880
<v Speaker 1>She's Bloomberg News Equities reporter. She follows the Chinese ADRs

0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:07.720
<v Speaker 1>that trade in the US. Jenning us here in our

0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive broke or studio looking at shares of Ali

0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:13.800
<v Speaker 1>Baba right now, still higher on the day, just off

0:09:13.800 --> 0:09:16.319
<v Speaker 1>their best levels of the session again of about thirteen

0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:18.959
<v Speaker 1>point eight percent. And we did talk earlier about the

0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:22.880
<v Speaker 1>Nasdack Golden Dragon. That index also higher on the day,

0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:26.520
<v Speaker 1>largely because of the moves that we saw in Ali Baba,

0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.800
<v Speaker 1>that index is up about three point four percent. Just

0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:32.600
<v Speaker 1>so definitely that whole sector, as we talked about earlier,

0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:35.960
<v Speaker 1>definitely some outperformance. It's definitely for sure and something that

0:09:36.040 --> 0:09:38.600
<v Speaker 1>investors are definitely going to keep their eyes on, especially

0:09:38.640 --> 0:09:40.920
<v Speaker 1>like we're talking about as far as when it comes

0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:44.280
<v Speaker 1>to even with these Chinese listed US stocks in the US,

0:09:44.360 --> 0:09:47.840
<v Speaker 1>how they've been outperforming at last quarter but obviously underperforming

0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:52.040
<v Speaker 1>this year. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast.

0:09:52.240 --> 0:09:55.480
<v Speaker 1>Catch US live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern

0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the Ion Radio app, and

0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:04.679
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business or watch US live on YouTube. Jess,

0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:08.240
<v Speaker 1>here's the startling statistics about one profession. For those in it,

0:10:08.400 --> 0:10:11.360
<v Speaker 1>some forty six percent would not recommend it as a career.

0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:16.240
<v Speaker 1>Only thirty three percent feel fairly compensated. Ninety three percent

0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:19.040
<v Speaker 1>think the shortage in their field will only get worse.

0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:22.520
<v Speaker 1>So those are pretty rough numbers. They are. And when

0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.280
<v Speaker 1>I know what profession you're about to talk about, and

0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.559
<v Speaker 1>this is something that was pivotal, especially it always is pivotal,

0:10:28.559 --> 0:10:31.440
<v Speaker 1>but especially in the wake of the pandemic. Absolutely, we're

0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.920
<v Speaker 1>talking about nursing, which, as you said, we were reminded

0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:37.160
<v Speaker 1>was so crucial to get us through the COVID pandemic.

0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:39.280
<v Speaker 1>So let's get more on the state of nursing. Great

0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:42.080
<v Speaker 1>to have back with us, Doctor aman Abuse. She's CEO

0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.280
<v Speaker 1>and co founder at Incredible Health. Her company connects hospitals

0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.520
<v Speaker 1>with nurses and other healthcare workers. She joins us via

0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:52.480
<v Speaker 1>zoom from Austin, Texas. Doctor Abuse, Nice to be checking

0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.320
<v Speaker 1>in with you again. How are you. I'm good. Thank

0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:57.280
<v Speaker 1>you so much for having me. Hey, so listen, I

0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.359
<v Speaker 1>shared with our audience and viewers some of us totistics.

0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:02.280
<v Speaker 1>Tell us about your State of the Nursing Report, which

0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:05.120
<v Speaker 1>I believe was just released today. Yeah, I was released

0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:09.040
<v Speaker 1>to date. It's our fourth annual report, and we use

0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:11.760
<v Speaker 1>hiring data from over seven hundred thousand nurses in our

0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.360
<v Speaker 1>in our network on the Incredible Health platform, and then

0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:17.880
<v Speaker 1>we surveyed an additional three thousand two So as far

0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:20.640
<v Speaker 1>as just the main findings, I'd love to start off

0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.680
<v Speaker 1>with some good news. Actually, there's been some improvements since

0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:27.040
<v Speaker 1>last year. So eighty percent of nurses plan to stay

0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.760
<v Speaker 1>in the in their field until retirement, which is a

0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.160
<v Speaker 1>big increase. It was only at fifty five percent last year.

0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:35.760
<v Speaker 1>And then there's also been a ten percent degrease in

0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:37.600
<v Speaker 1>the number of nurses who are planning to leave their

0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.079
<v Speaker 1>current roles this year. So that's that means that turnover

0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:43.960
<v Speaker 1>will hopefully be improving in the next twelve months too.

0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:45.920
<v Speaker 1>Can we can we ask you why that good news?

0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:47.760
<v Speaker 1>Why do you think those numbers have improved, because I

0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.480
<v Speaker 1>know they were pretty dismal when we were talking to

0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.000
<v Speaker 1>you before they were think, I think the main reason

0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.760
<v Speaker 1>is that the pandemic and the intensity of it has

0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:59.319
<v Speaker 1>subsided a bit. And then we're also through the tridemic.

0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:03.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, there was r RSB flu time period two,

0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:07.200
<v Speaker 1>so you know they're looking their nurses are a little

0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:09.400
<v Speaker 1>more optimistic about the long term in the future, their

0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:11.839
<v Speaker 1>future careers. It was a nurse in my neighborhood, m

0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.040
<v Speaker 1>a neighbor who she was like, I'm done, I'm done,

0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:18.000
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't go like just because it was just too much

0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:22.040
<v Speaker 1>UM coming at her. So I can totally relate. UM

0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:24.440
<v Speaker 1>walk us through some of the numbers though that weren't

0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 1>so great. Yeah, I know. So now having said that,

0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 1>even with that, some of that good news that's a

0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:30.680
<v Speaker 1>little bit more longer term looking that they want to

0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 1>stay in their careers in the long term, there there's

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.079
<v Speaker 1>still a lot of frustration about what's going on currently

0:12:36.320 --> 0:12:40.600
<v Speaker 1>with understaffing, would burnout and with pay. So, you know,

0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.200
<v Speaker 1>more than sixty two percent of the nurses say they're

0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 1>not hopeful for the next generation of nurses and forty

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:50.120
<v Speaker 1>six percent would actually not recommend a career in nursing. Um.

0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 1>When asked about, you know, staffing shortages, ninety three percent

0:12:55.360 --> 0:13:00.520
<v Speaker 1>of the respondent said that they expect they are experiencing

0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:04.439
<v Speaker 1>the nursing shortage getting even worse and so and they

0:13:04.480 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 1>have all set over seventy percent have pointed to inadequate

0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:12.559
<v Speaker 1>staffing being one of their top concerns. What I'm wondering about, Oh,

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>I was curious about as far as what could be

0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 1>done to help healthcare workers feel more supported. Yeah, there's

0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 1>there's quite a bit that all of us can that

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:26.320
<v Speaker 1>all of us can do for for the hospital executives

0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.479
<v Speaker 1>in particular, they can definitely invest more in career advancement,

0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.360
<v Speaker 1>that more training opportunities for nurses so they're encouraged to

0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:36.040
<v Speaker 1>stay in their health system. There's also quite a bit

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 1>more work that needs to happen with providing more flexible scheduling,

0:13:39.960 --> 0:13:42.920
<v Speaker 1>so allowing nurses to pick pick not just full time roles,

0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 1>but also part time roles, and not only twelve hour

0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 1>shifts but also four hours and eight hour shifts and

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 1>weekend shift options, just so they can fit work into

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:53.240
<v Speaker 1>their into their into their lives a little easier. And

0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 1>then you know there of course, like the other big

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:57.800
<v Speaker 1>trend that we're seeing is with wages. You know, wages

0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 1>has increased overall. We're seeing a fourteen percent increase in

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 1>sign on bonuses, in the use of sign on bonuses overall,

0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 1>and the actual amount of sign on bonuses has also

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.440
<v Speaker 1>was that ever a thing. Years ago. I had a

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>sister who was a nurse. I don't remember her. I

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.880
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about a sign on bonus. It wasn't a

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.439
<v Speaker 1>thing at all. We've also seen the actual hourly rate increase.

0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 1>I think the reason it's become a thing is because,

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a huge supply shortage here right There's

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 1>a huge demands supply demand and balance, and as a result,

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:28.480
<v Speaker 1>because we don't have enough workers, wages will go up.

0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 1>So as far as kind of piecing all of this together.

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 1>Are there more nurses that are planning now to actually

0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.960
<v Speaker 1>stay in this rule a year from now versus obviously before,

0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 1>because you were explaining all those statistics now, So if

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.880
<v Speaker 1>they are planning to stay, does that potentially bode well, Yeah,

0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>it bodes well that they're more likely to stay. Now,

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 1>keep in mind the turnover still high, right, the turnover

0:14:56.280 --> 0:15:00.600
<v Speaker 1>annually is at twenty two percent, but thankfully much smaller

0:15:00.600 --> 0:15:03.600
<v Speaker 1>percentage of nurses are looking to leave the field altogether.

0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:07.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, one of the things that I remember, doctor

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.000
<v Speaker 1>obvious Dade from I think we talked last time, what's

0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 1>the average I hate that word, what's the average nurse make?

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:16.120
<v Speaker 1>But what's the average salary in nursing? It's about ninety

0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>three thousand naturally okay, natural average obviously varies dramatically by state. Yeah, no,

0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:25.320
<v Speaker 1>I right, lots of variations. And I know we've talked about,

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 1>as you said, there's not necessarily a lot of people

0:15:28.160 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>coming into this profession. Once again, is it, you know,

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.560
<v Speaker 1>opening up immigration and I know we've talked about this

0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:37.960
<v Speaker 1>in the past. Is that the fix? What's the fix

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:41.640
<v Speaker 1>in terms of encouraging people to enter and I often

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>find that it's a lot of people from other countries

0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 1>that are nursing. So there's two keyball nucks that are

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.720
<v Speaker 1>happening in the US. Number one is that nursing school.

0:15:49.920 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 1>So there's there's tens of thousands of Americans on wait

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 1>lists to get into nursing schools, but the nursing schools

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:58.920
<v Speaker 1>cannot handle more capacity, and so we need to expand

0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.360
<v Speaker 1>nursing full capacity in this country and train more nurses.

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:04.680
<v Speaker 1>And then there's another ball in that happening right after

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 1>nursing school. And then there's not enough programs at hospitals

0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 1>and other other employers that train nurses to become more specialized.

0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:15.280
<v Speaker 1>And so both of those are the two huge ball

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>in next that we have just got about thirty seconds.

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 1>We've talked with you about this before. Any progress that

0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.320
<v Speaker 1>we're making on this, Are you seeing it? Not? Honestly,

0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.560
<v Speaker 1>not yet not it's not showing up in the data yet.

0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:28.400
<v Speaker 1>But I know, I know that many nursing leaders and

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.360
<v Speaker 1>HR leaders and nursing education leaders are actively working on it.

0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:33.760
<v Speaker 1>They have to be stressed out because if you think

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:35.840
<v Speaker 1>about an aging population, we're all going to just need

0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:41.080
<v Speaker 1>more of certainly healthcare services overall, but definitely nursing in particular. Eman,

0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:43.440
<v Speaker 1>good to check in with you again. Doctor iman Abu's age.

0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 1>She's co founder and chief executive officer at Incredible Health

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 1>JOININGSVA Zoom from Austin, Texas. Yeah, I mean, I think

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:54.400
<v Speaker 1>about it, right. We just know that an aging population

0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 1>is just going to need a lot of healthcare going

0:16:56.360 --> 0:16:59.120
<v Speaker 1>foe and you do wonder whether the doctors will be there,

0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the nurses will be there, absolutely, but then hearing about

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:06.679
<v Speaker 1>the wage gains signing bonuses, will that be enough to

0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:08.960
<v Speaker 1>continue to get workers in that field as long as

0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.359
<v Speaker 1>the pool of workers right there? All right, you're listening

0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 1>and watching Bloomberg Business Week. This is Bloomberg Radio. You're

0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 1>listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live

0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:23.359
<v Speaker 1>weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.840
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen

0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:30.119
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:35.879
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. Okay, I'm just

0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>gonna say it. This is one of my favorite stories

0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:38.919
<v Speaker 1>of the day. It's one that will be in the

0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 1>new issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek on newstands later on this week,

0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.720
<v Speaker 1>already online at Bloomberg dot com Sash Business Week, and

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:46.800
<v Speaker 1>it's of course on the Bloomberg terminal. It's about how

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:50.640
<v Speaker 1>China has become the lender of last resort for developing countries.

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:53.959
<v Speaker 1>Why you should care because it has lots of implications

0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.320
<v Speaker 1>geopolitically and more. With more, let's head to Washington, DC.

0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>That's where we find Sean don And is Bloomberg News

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:03.919
<v Speaker 1>senior economics writer. He is on zoom and then in

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.840
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg a director broker studio, we have Bloomberg Business

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.280
<v Speaker 1>wee get or Joel Webber. Joel. I feel like China's

0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:12.280
<v Speaker 1>involvement around the globe, especially in the developing world, has

0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:13.840
<v Speaker 1>grown a lot. We know a lot of it by

0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 1>way of its Belt and Road initiative. This story by

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.720
<v Speaker 1>Sean now takes it up a notch. Yeah, and it

0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 1>actually looks at sort of the soft power and you're

0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:28.080
<v Speaker 1>right about this epic project building spree that China has

0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.760
<v Speaker 1>been been on. This is a little different and it

0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:36.040
<v Speaker 1>actually shows that basically China has been in a quiet

0:18:36.080 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 1>little fight with IMF and and the amount of money

0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:45.640
<v Speaker 1>here is really the crazy part. So, Sean, what how

0:18:45.680 --> 0:18:48.159
<v Speaker 1>did you find this story and what stands out to

0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.959
<v Speaker 1>about these numbers. Yeah, look, this is really the results

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:55.959
<v Speaker 1>of some really great work by some economists at an

0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.520
<v Speaker 1>outfit called AID Data, which is at William and Mary

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:02.440
<v Speaker 1>in Virginia, the World Bank, the Keel Institute in Germany,

0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:05.159
<v Speaker 1>and Carmen Reinhardt up at Harvard, who is one of

0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.560
<v Speaker 1>the world's leading experts on the kind of history and

0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>politics of debt and their impact on crises. They did

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:18.639
<v Speaker 1>this amazing work where they dived into really central bank

0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:22.960
<v Speaker 1>records and other records around the world and identified this

0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:26.480
<v Speaker 1>two hundred and forty billion dollars that had been loaned

0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:31.879
<v Speaker 1>out by China over the last twenty years to twenty

0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.800
<v Speaker 1>two countries. And these are twenty two countries in the

0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.199
<v Speaker 1>developing world. And this is a different kind of lending

0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:40.919
<v Speaker 1>from China in that what we've grown used to is

0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 1>China financing big infrastructure projects like ports in the developing world.

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:49.400
<v Speaker 1>This is actually what we would call rescue lending. These

0:19:49.400 --> 0:19:52.840
<v Speaker 1>are bailouts to countries that have gotten into trouble, to

0:19:54.040 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>their central banks to try and help them ride out crises.

0:19:56.680 --> 0:20:00.679
<v Speaker 1>And that takes China into a whole different area of

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:04.560
<v Speaker 1>lending and, as you say, starts to establish it in

0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:08.119
<v Speaker 1>its central bank as a lender of last resort in

0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the global economy and the potential rival to institutions that

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:15.280
<v Speaker 1>have been around for since the end of World War two,

0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:18.879
<v Speaker 1>really like the International Monetary Fund and that have become

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:23.119
<v Speaker 1>the normal way that we respond to crises. So you

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:29.040
<v Speaker 1>write that exact comparisons are difficult, but China's one hundred

0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:31.680
<v Speaker 1>and eighty five billions surpassed one hundred and forty four

0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:34.879
<v Speaker 1>billion dispersed by the IMF over this same period. What

0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 1>period are we talking in? Why is it so difficult

0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:43.200
<v Speaker 1>to compare? Yeah, So, look, the IMF gives out concessional

0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 1>emergency loans with a lot of conditions attached, requiring reforms.

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:52.439
<v Speaker 1>The type of lending that we're talking about in this period,

0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:55.280
<v Speaker 1>which is between two thy sixteen and twenty twenty one,

0:20:55.359 --> 0:20:59.440
<v Speaker 1>which catches the lead up too in the first couple

0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:03.199
<v Speaker 1>of years pandemic and some of the economic turmoil that

0:21:03.240 --> 0:21:05.840
<v Speaker 1>we've seen since then. The type of lending you get

0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:10.639
<v Speaker 1>from the People's Bank of China comes via these swaps

0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:16.200
<v Speaker 1>to central bank reserves and it sometimes comes from state

0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:21.200
<v Speaker 1>owned banks with higher interest rates and different ten years.

0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:25.840
<v Speaker 1>The kind of terms of lending are difficult to compare,

0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:28.119
<v Speaker 1>and that's what we're talking about there. But the total

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:30.280
<v Speaker 1>sum that we're talking about there, and this is the

0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 1>amount that's drawn down on credit lines rather than the

0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:38.280
<v Speaker 1>amount that's committed by either China or the IMF, means

0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:41.000
<v Speaker 1>that the one hundred and eighty five billion dollars that

0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:45.119
<v Speaker 1>China sent out over that period these just these twenty

0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:48.000
<v Speaker 1>two countries, remember, is comparable to the one hundred and

0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 1>forty four billion dollars that the IMF sent out dispersed

0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:56.480
<v Speaker 1>to member countries that we're dealing with various economic crises

0:21:56.480 --> 0:21:59.919
<v Speaker 1>in the same period. Okay, Sean, So what kind of

0:22:00.200 --> 0:22:03.199
<v Speaker 1>countries are we talking about here and what do we

0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:08.400
<v Speaker 1>know about why they've needed it? And turned to China. Yeah,

0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.440
<v Speaker 1>so look, we're talking about countries like Pakistan, We're talking

0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:16.760
<v Speaker 1>about countries like Argentina, Sri Lanka. We're talking largely about

0:22:16.840 --> 0:22:22.359
<v Speaker 1>the poorer countries in the world and countries that have

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:26.080
<v Speaker 1>run into debt problems over the years. Some critics would

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:28.560
<v Speaker 1>charge that a lot of those debt problems have come

0:22:28.600 --> 0:22:31.040
<v Speaker 1>as a result of Chinese lending. In fact, that's what

0:22:31.160 --> 0:22:35.560
<v Speaker 1>the Biden administration and previous administrations would claim. This kind

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:39.400
<v Speaker 1>of this this incredible flow of funds that's come out

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:43.000
<v Speaker 1>through the Belton Road Initiative into the developing world to

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:48.720
<v Speaker 1>help build infrastructures, sometimes at terms that were, in hindsight,

0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:54.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe too generous or irresponsible. This is and these are

0:22:54.960 --> 0:22:57.280
<v Speaker 1>debts that have built up and as we hit the pandemic,

0:22:57.560 --> 0:22:59.879
<v Speaker 1>As we hit the term, a lot of countries ran

0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:04.440
<v Speaker 1>into trouble and they want to bolster their foreign exchange reserves.

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:07.240
<v Speaker 1>They need to bolster their government budgets to try and

0:23:07.359 --> 0:23:10.479
<v Speaker 1>ride the stuff in the past. These are things that

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:13.720
<v Speaker 1>they would go to the IMF for or other land.

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:19.920
<v Speaker 1>How much of it, too, is about the Chinese currency,

0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:25.159
<v Speaker 1>because we know that the Chinese would love for the

0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:28.040
<v Speaker 1>Chinese currency to be the world reserve currency and not

0:23:28.080 --> 0:23:30.560
<v Speaker 1>the US dollar, and they've tried to kind of put

0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:34.159
<v Speaker 1>it out there. This is all about influence, right and

0:23:34.359 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 1>currency is out there are are about influence as well.

0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:40.679
<v Speaker 1>This is about a great geopolitical battle. A lot of

0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:43.080
<v Speaker 1>these swap lines that were set up by the PBOC

0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 1>over the last twenty years were set up with the

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:49.200
<v Speaker 1>idea of financing trade and getting the world to use

0:23:49.280 --> 0:23:52.200
<v Speaker 1>the Chinese currency, the rand named a lot more. But

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:54.600
<v Speaker 1>in what we've seen in this case, and what they

0:23:54.640 --> 0:23:57.119
<v Speaker 1>really document in the study, is that these swap lines

0:23:57.119 --> 0:24:00.320
<v Speaker 1>that were set up for that purpose in fact ended

0:24:00.400 --> 0:24:03.479
<v Speaker 1>up being used for kind of emergency rescues and in

0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:07.560
<v Speaker 1>some cases, you know, ended up as as dollar funds

0:24:07.640 --> 0:24:10.840
<v Speaker 1>going into the foreign reserves are being transferred into dollars

0:24:10.880 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 1>and kind of you know, bolstering the dollar system in

0:24:13.560 --> 0:24:15.920
<v Speaker 1>a way and in a funny way. But the whole,

0:24:16.080 --> 0:24:18.639
<v Speaker 1>the whole game here is really you know, when we

0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:21.600
<v Speaker 1>talk about the US and China and growing rivalries and

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:24.040
<v Speaker 1>in this Cold War, we often focus on the trade

0:24:24.080 --> 0:24:28.800
<v Speaker 1>wars or the battles over technology and things like semiconductors. Well,

0:24:28.800 --> 0:24:30.880
<v Speaker 1>this is a whole other side that we really need

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 1>to start paying it to more attention to. And that's

0:24:33.160 --> 0:24:35.240
<v Speaker 1>debt and what is happening in the world where a

0:24:35.280 --> 0:24:38.080
<v Speaker 1>lot of poor countries are getting into increasing problems and

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:41.480
<v Speaker 1>they need rescues. And here's China riding to the rescue

0:24:41.640 --> 0:24:44.600
<v Speaker 1>alongside the International Monetary Fund and some of those US

0:24:44.720 --> 0:24:47.919
<v Speaker 1>led or US backed institutions that have been the tradition,

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:51.679
<v Speaker 1>the traditional responders and sean when you're talking about these

0:24:51.720 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>swap lines. Obviously, when we think about the Federal Reserve,

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 1>it's so crucial when they have this to obviously prevent

0:24:56.680 --> 0:24:59.280
<v Speaker 1>liquidity problems, and they've done some measures in the last

0:24:59.320 --> 0:25:02.200
<v Speaker 1>few weeks with other central banks to expand the frequency

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:05.240
<v Speaker 1>of that. But when we're talking about China's currency swap

0:25:05.240 --> 0:25:08.280
<v Speaker 1>agreements kind of set this up, and how exactly could

0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:11.159
<v Speaker 1>all of this play out, and what's different about this

0:25:11.320 --> 0:25:15.800
<v Speaker 1>compared with when you're looking at these other global central banks, right, So,

0:25:15.840 --> 0:25:19.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the FED swap lines are with fairly they've

0:25:19.240 --> 0:25:23.120
<v Speaker 1>become this crisis responsible since the two thousand and seven

0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:26.440
<v Speaker 1>eight global financial crisis, but there was a pretty limited

0:25:26.680 --> 0:25:31.080
<v Speaker 1>set of central banks. These are largely rich world central banks,

0:25:31.080 --> 0:25:33.679
<v Speaker 1>the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the

0:25:33.720 --> 0:25:37.840
<v Speaker 1>Bank of Japan and so on, and they're really about,

0:25:38.880 --> 0:25:42.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, getting emergency liquidity into the dollar system. They're

0:25:42.480 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 1>always be incredibly transparent. You can go out to the

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:47.840
<v Speaker 1>New York Federal Reserves website and you can look at

0:25:47.920 --> 0:25:51.960
<v Speaker 1>individual transactions and who has drawn down and the tenor

0:25:52.000 --> 0:25:55.800
<v Speaker 1>of those transactions, the interest rate that's that's being paid.

0:25:56.000 --> 0:26:00.200
<v Speaker 1>The Chinese here are doing something different. They're using these

0:26:00.240 --> 0:26:05.960
<v Speaker 1>swap lines as more traditional or different kind of rescue loans.

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:08.840
<v Speaker 1>And look, their defenders say, and they're doing something that's

0:26:08.920 --> 0:26:11.240
<v Speaker 1>needed in the world, and that they're helping out these

0:26:11.240 --> 0:26:16.120
<v Speaker 1>central banks in developing countries. These are banks that central

0:26:16.160 --> 0:26:18.600
<v Speaker 1>banks that don't have access to the FED swap lines,

0:26:18.840 --> 0:26:20.720
<v Speaker 1>and they're helping them at times when they really need

0:26:20.720 --> 0:26:25.480
<v Speaker 1>to help. Hey, Sean, is this, though, in essence, perhaps

0:26:25.600 --> 0:26:30.960
<v Speaker 1>really a Chinese bank bailout? Well, that's the suspicion of

0:26:31.000 --> 0:26:34.120
<v Speaker 1>the authors, and Carmen reinharden I had this fascinating interview

0:26:34.119 --> 0:26:37.880
<v Speaker 1>and when she says, look, I think part of this

0:26:38.440 --> 0:26:44.000
<v Speaker 1>is the PBOC bailing out Chinese banks that got into

0:26:44.040 --> 0:26:47.480
<v Speaker 1>trouble as a result of Shijianpings Belt and Road initiative

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:50.040
<v Speaker 1>that ended up with these bad loans and developing countries.

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:53.320
<v Speaker 1>And if you look, there's a correlation between where these

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:57.800
<v Speaker 1>these swap lines are being drawn down and the bad

0:26:57.840 --> 0:27:00.679
<v Speaker 1>debts that are out there for China um or the

0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:05.560
<v Speaker 1>high levels of indebtedness to China. But she also says

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:08.400
<v Speaker 1>she can't prove that. Then again she also says it

0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:11.680
<v Speaker 1>doesn't matter because money is fungible, and if you get

0:27:11.720 --> 0:27:14.639
<v Speaker 1>money in central bank reserves that frees up money elsewhere

0:27:15.600 --> 0:27:19.679
<v Speaker 1>on government balance sheets. It can help. Uh, you know,

0:27:20.640 --> 0:27:25.120
<v Speaker 1>governments use her bolster budgets and uh. And the overall

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:29.479
<v Speaker 1>economic position in a country to the US, I amf

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:35.400
<v Speaker 1>looking at this. Suddenly there number two or distant more

0:27:35.400 --> 0:27:38.280
<v Speaker 1>distant than that. How do how does this play out? John?

0:27:39.920 --> 0:27:43.160
<v Speaker 1>I think from we got to watch. Uh, it's hard

0:27:43.200 --> 0:27:45.560
<v Speaker 1>to watch because it's opaque. This is you know, again,

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:48.639
<v Speaker 1>the genius of this study is that they've they've told

0:27:48.720 --> 0:27:50.919
<v Speaker 1>us about this, they've documented these something. These are not

0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:55.119
<v Speaker 1>things that we can look at easily on the PBOC website. Um.

0:27:55.320 --> 0:27:57.920
<v Speaker 1>And so we really needed to watch and see where

0:27:58.080 --> 0:28:03.200
<v Speaker 1>where China established itself in the world and where it

0:28:03.840 --> 0:28:07.320
<v Speaker 1>sends this money, whether it is just to bail out

0:28:07.440 --> 0:28:09.879
<v Speaker 1>Chinese banks, in which case that's going to be something

0:28:09.920 --> 0:28:12.119
<v Speaker 1>that wraps up in just a couple of years, or

0:28:12.119 --> 0:28:16.879
<v Speaker 1>whether they're establishing themselves as a longer term beneficent power

0:28:17.119 --> 0:28:20.520
<v Speaker 1>that comes in to help rescue the world's poorer countries

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:24.199
<v Speaker 1>and does so for generations to come. Well, it is

0:28:24.240 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 1>kind of interesting and I just think it just shows

0:28:26.720 --> 0:28:29.240
<v Speaker 1>you how China is just playing on a very very

0:28:29.280 --> 0:28:34.360
<v Speaker 1>different level here Sean. You know, in terms of these markets,

0:28:34.400 --> 0:28:36.439
<v Speaker 1>many of them that they're playing into in the emerging world,

0:28:36.520 --> 0:28:39.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they have things that China wants to tap into,

0:28:39.520 --> 0:28:43.400
<v Speaker 1>whether it's raw materials, raw minerals, if you will. And

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:49.520
<v Speaker 1>I just feel like the relationship becomes much more intertwined. Absolutely. Look,

0:28:49.880 --> 0:28:54.040
<v Speaker 1>as we said earlier, this is all about influence in geopolitics,

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:58.480
<v Speaker 1>and we're going to be watching this for many years

0:28:58.520 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 1>to come. We talked about how this could potentially help

0:29:02.160 --> 0:29:05.760
<v Speaker 1>out these poorer economies, but what would be the consequences

0:29:05.760 --> 0:29:08.760
<v Speaker 1>for the global economy with this? Give it the nature

0:29:08.800 --> 0:29:13.880
<v Speaker 1>of it. Yeah, look, it's there is You know, Carmen

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:16.840
<v Speaker 1>Reinhardt is among the skeptics when when she talks about

0:29:16.840 --> 0:29:21.600
<v Speaker 1>helping out these poorer economies. You're providing money. But in

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:24.080
<v Speaker 1>some ways, one of the things we've seen with China

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:29.000
<v Speaker 1>is that they've been reluctant to restructure aircats on debts

0:29:29.160 --> 0:29:32.160
<v Speaker 1>to really ease the debt burden on a lot of

0:29:32.200 --> 0:29:35.840
<v Speaker 1>poor countries. And we could get into a cycle where

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:41.280
<v Speaker 1>some of these countries just get stuck in debt traps,

0:29:41.480 --> 0:29:45.240
<v Speaker 1>and that the Chinese while they're they're funneling this money,

0:29:45.240 --> 0:29:49.160
<v Speaker 1>they're they're keeping things ticking along. These these countries maybe

0:29:49.200 --> 0:29:52.360
<v Speaker 1>paying the bills day in and day out, but they

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:55.360
<v Speaker 1>may not be getting out from under these debt piles,

0:29:55.400 --> 0:30:00.840
<v Speaker 1>which drags on their economies, which has social consequences for

0:30:00.880 --> 0:30:03.640
<v Speaker 1>their people, and they have consequences for people in the

0:30:03.760 --> 0:30:06.720
<v Speaker 1>rich world as well as we see you know, we've

0:30:06.760 --> 0:30:08.560
<v Speaker 1>we've seen this at our southern border here in the

0:30:08.640 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>United States, people from troubled economies in Central America coming

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:17.040
<v Speaker 1>north and you could pay out of Africa and other

0:30:17.080 --> 0:30:22.200
<v Speaker 1>parts of you know, you mentioned economic problems. You mentioned

0:30:22.200 --> 0:30:26.160
<v Speaker 1>Sri Lanka there, and that also exact exact example of that,

0:30:26.240 --> 0:30:30.000
<v Speaker 1>where you have a stable country, stable economy, and all

0:30:30.040 --> 0:30:32.440
<v Speaker 1>of a sudden it finds itself with you know, just

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:37.320
<v Speaker 1>astronomical amounts of debt that's also linked to China. Um

0:30:38.000 --> 0:30:40.040
<v Speaker 1>When you think through some of those other names that

0:30:40.040 --> 0:30:42.880
<v Speaker 1>we've rattled through here, genre there any other ones that

0:30:43.000 --> 0:30:44.880
<v Speaker 1>jump out to you that we'll be talking about who

0:30:44.880 --> 0:30:47.960
<v Speaker 1>are linked in the same research. Look, when it comes

0:30:48.000 --> 0:30:49.840
<v Speaker 1>to debt problems that are very live and the people

0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 1>are looking at right now. It's Sri Lanka, it's Zambia

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:55.640
<v Speaker 1>and Africa. It's Ghana, where debt restructuring talks were just

0:30:55.680 --> 0:30:59.320
<v Speaker 1>getting started. And then there's the one that gives a

0:30:59.360 --> 0:31:02.280
<v Speaker 1>lot of people. That is Pakistan, which obviously is a

0:31:02.720 --> 0:31:07.240
<v Speaker 1>nuclear power, and it also has some incredible debt problems

0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:10.960
<v Speaker 1>and some big Chinese debt problems that it needs to

0:31:10.960 --> 0:31:12.600
<v Speaker 1>sort out in the years to come. Hence what we

0:31:12.600 --> 0:31:15.560
<v Speaker 1>said at the beginning, some you know, potentially this all

0:31:15.600 --> 0:31:19.480
<v Speaker 1>has implications when it comes to geopolitics. Sean, great story

0:31:20.200 --> 0:31:23.480
<v Speaker 1>and I'm must read. Sean Donnan is senior economics writer

0:31:23.600 --> 0:31:26.760
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News via zoom from Washington, d see our

0:31:26.840 --> 0:31:29.280
<v Speaker 1>thanks to him as well as Jill Webber, editor of

0:31:29.320 --> 0:31:31.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. He's in our studio this story. By

0:31:31.720 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 1>the way, it's going to be the upcoming new issue

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:36.320
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week. It'll be out on newstands on Thursday.

0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:38.920
<v Speaker 1>Already on the Bloomberg terminal, but you can also find

0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:42.840
<v Speaker 1>it at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Really really

0:31:42.920 --> 0:31:45.920
<v Speaker 1>important and certainly sign of our times, definitely, and especially

0:31:45.920 --> 0:31:49.360
<v Speaker 1>when we're talking about these currency swap agreements, specifically with

0:31:49.520 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>China and how that differs when you're thinking about these

0:31:51.640 --> 0:31:55.040
<v Speaker 1>other central banks globally. It's really fascinating to see potentially

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:56.800
<v Speaker 1>how this plays out, as well as when we talked

0:31:56.800 --> 0:32:00.080
<v Speaker 1>about these poorer economies that potentially need this help, and

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:02.560
<v Speaker 1>then also the potential consequences there. I love how it's

0:32:02.720 --> 0:32:05.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of like a sly way to get everybody to

0:32:05.160 --> 0:32:08.520
<v Speaker 1>use the Chinese currency. Rachelburn just you know, hey, look

0:32:08.520 --> 0:32:10.200
<v Speaker 1>at this. Look at this. We have a we have

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 1>an app for that too. How did that happen? You're

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:18.400
<v Speaker 1>listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live

0:32:18.480 --> 0:32:22.120
<v Speaker 1>weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg

0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 1>dot com, the iHeart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business app,

0:32:25.880 --> 0:32:35.160
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube. I'm rum journal. But

0:32:35.320 --> 0:32:37.440
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no, no, who's

0:32:37.480 --> 0:32:42.760
<v Speaker 1>going home? Honey? Please? I'll do the riding gravels. I

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:51.600
<v Speaker 1>want to drive. It's good question. This is the drive

0:32:51.680 --> 0:32:56.800
<v Speaker 1>to the clothes than well, jog down on Bloomberg Radio.

0:32:57.080 --> 0:32:59.240
<v Speaker 1>All right, everybody, let's get to it. You've got about

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:03.240
<v Speaker 1>eighteen minutes left today's trading session, getting ready to wrap

0:33:03.360 --> 0:33:06.080
<v Speaker 1>up the trading day. Thank you lower that, Thank you

0:33:06.160 --> 0:33:09.800
<v Speaker 1>very much. All Right, equities bouncing around. We're definitely off

0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:12.520
<v Speaker 1>our best levels of the session, a little bit lower

0:33:12.760 --> 0:33:14.800
<v Speaker 1>on each of those major equity averages, as you just

0:33:14.840 --> 0:33:18.520
<v Speaker 1>heard from Charlie Tech the most down on a percentage

0:33:18.520 --> 0:33:21.959
<v Speaker 1>basis among those big three indexes. As for the two

0:33:22.000 --> 0:33:25.000
<v Speaker 1>year note, we're looking at it at four point zero three.

0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:28.040
<v Speaker 1>Sustain above that four percent marker, right at it. Let's

0:33:28.040 --> 0:33:29.120
<v Speaker 1>get to it. We want to talk a little bit

0:33:29.120 --> 0:33:31.400
<v Speaker 1>about the fixed income world. Brian Allen is director of

0:33:31.440 --> 0:33:35.720
<v Speaker 1>fixed income at the institutional investment manager cs McKey Asset Management.

0:33:35.720 --> 0:33:38.400
<v Speaker 1>They've got over seven point nine billion dollars in assets

0:33:38.400 --> 0:33:41.240
<v Speaker 1>as of the end of last year, based in Pittsburgh,

0:33:41.360 --> 0:33:44.640
<v Speaker 1>and he joins us via zoom from Jacksonville, Florida. Hey, Brian,

0:33:44.720 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 1>good to have you here with us, right person to

0:33:46.560 --> 0:33:49.280
<v Speaker 1>have Considering what's been going on in the financial markets,

0:33:50.520 --> 0:33:52.920
<v Speaker 1>what do you make of the environment and your expectations

0:33:52.920 --> 0:33:54.720
<v Speaker 1>for the fixed income world over the next six to

0:33:54.760 --> 0:33:57.040
<v Speaker 1>twelve months. Do you have clarity, first of all, or

0:33:57.080 --> 0:34:02.200
<v Speaker 1>transparency in terms of what comes next? Frankly, no real clarity.

0:34:02.240 --> 0:34:04.200
<v Speaker 1>It was certainly the events of the last few weeks

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:07.719
<v Speaker 1>pointed out that we've come a long way with respect

0:34:07.720 --> 0:34:11.160
<v Speaker 1>the FED funds and general market interest rates frankly a

0:34:11.200 --> 0:34:14.000
<v Speaker 1>little too high. The concern was always the Fed would

0:34:14.040 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 1>raise rates until something broke, and it seems we've reached

0:34:17.200 --> 0:34:22.160
<v Speaker 1>that threshold. We had quickest moved down in rates over

0:34:22.280 --> 0:34:25.040
<v Speaker 1>a short term time frame that we've seen in at

0:34:25.080 --> 0:34:28.640
<v Speaker 1>least since nineteen eighty seven. So I think going forward

0:34:29.280 --> 0:34:31.279
<v Speaker 1>we may see one more rate high from the Fed,

0:34:31.360 --> 0:34:33.640
<v Speaker 1>and I don't expect to see the three or four

0:34:33.760 --> 0:34:37.080
<v Speaker 1>rate cuts the markets discounting, but I think it's safe

0:34:37.080 --> 0:34:39.839
<v Speaker 1>to say that the Fed will be done after another

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:42.040
<v Speaker 1>rate high pick and we'll wait to see what the

0:34:42.120 --> 0:34:46.000
<v Speaker 1>ripple effects of the banking Not crisis, but concerns we

0:34:46.120 --> 0:34:51.799
<v Speaker 1>have right now how they play out. Not a crisis, Yeah,

0:34:52.440 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 1>okay TBD Brian. With all of this uncertainty that's swirling around,

0:34:59.239 --> 0:35:02.040
<v Speaker 1>how are you advis clients to position in this type

0:35:02.080 --> 0:35:07.319
<v Speaker 1>of environment. For our clients in particular, we are very

0:35:07.360 --> 0:35:10.799
<v Speaker 1>much quality and liquidity focus that certainly will serve them well.

0:35:10.880 --> 0:35:14.520
<v Speaker 1>Now we have concerns about the rising odds of a

0:35:14.600 --> 0:35:18.279
<v Speaker 1>ridge session and what that may do to credit, not

0:35:18.320 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 1>only to the consumer, the borrowers. But the performance of

0:35:22.239 --> 0:35:27.759
<v Speaker 1>corporate credit for our investments. One thing one I guess

0:35:27.760 --> 0:35:31.040
<v Speaker 1>blessing in disguise from the spike and volatility we've seen

0:35:31.239 --> 0:35:35.560
<v Speaker 1>as a deep discount and very attractive spread levels on

0:35:35.760 --> 0:35:42.080
<v Speaker 1>agency issues that frankly now are yielding comparable to investment

0:35:42.120 --> 0:35:46.239
<v Speaker 1>great treasuries without the same economic cyclicality exposure that our

0:35:46.280 --> 0:35:53.200
<v Speaker 1>corporate credit has the same type of risk. There well,

0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.839
<v Speaker 1>you certainly have exposure to volatility, and a little more

0:35:55.920 --> 0:36:00.040
<v Speaker 1>so than you find in corporate credit when you're just

0:36:00.160 --> 0:36:03.319
<v Speaker 1>focused on market volatility. We've seen such a spight, though

0:36:03.320 --> 0:36:06.120
<v Speaker 1>we've now gone back. We've exceeded the levels seen during

0:36:06.200 --> 0:36:09.080
<v Speaker 1>the first quarter of twenty and twenty with COVID, and

0:36:09.239 --> 0:36:11.480
<v Speaker 1>we were on par with the worst levels. The highest

0:36:11.520 --> 0:36:13.719
<v Speaker 1>levels in volatility is seen in two thousand and eight,

0:36:14.080 --> 0:36:16.719
<v Speaker 1>So that really has chief in those securities and made

0:36:16.719 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 1>them very attractive. And the one thing you can bet

0:36:19.560 --> 0:36:23.600
<v Speaker 1>the beds obviously desire is to bring inflation under control,

0:36:24.040 --> 0:36:28.719
<v Speaker 1>but to certainly do their part to establish liquidity in

0:36:28.760 --> 0:36:31.759
<v Speaker 1>the markets and market function, and therefore we think it's

0:36:31.800 --> 0:36:34.040
<v Speaker 1>a safe bet that market volatility won't stay at these

0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:37.759
<v Speaker 1>unusually elevated levels for too long. Hey what about real estate?

0:36:37.760 --> 0:36:40.560
<v Speaker 1>And I bring it up something just crossed on Twitter.

0:36:40.880 --> 0:36:42.759
<v Speaker 1>This is from the Real Deal, which follows the real

0:36:42.880 --> 0:36:46.319
<v Speaker 1>estate sector, but they talk specifically about dead on Blackstone

0:36:46.360 --> 0:36:49.040
<v Speaker 1>buildings forty seven percent more than the portfolio's worth. This

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:51.759
<v Speaker 1>is coming from Moodies. The rating agency downgrades the debt,

0:36:51.760 --> 0:36:56.000
<v Speaker 1>setting eleven properties quote declining performance. And they're just talking

0:36:56.000 --> 0:36:59.239
<v Speaker 1>about a couple of months after Blackstone secured a two

0:36:59.360 --> 0:37:02.760
<v Speaker 1>hundred and seventy million dollars loan secured by eleven Manhattan

0:37:02.800 --> 0:37:07.920
<v Speaker 1>multi family buildings went to special servicing. So Moody's downgraded

0:37:07.920 --> 0:37:10.560
<v Speaker 1>the CMBs debt, citing cash flow that wouldn't cover the

0:37:10.560 --> 0:37:14.120
<v Speaker 1>debt service. How are you looking at real estate specifically,

0:37:14.120 --> 0:37:18.279
<v Speaker 1>which we all keep wondering post pandemic, certainly here in

0:37:18.280 --> 0:37:20.320
<v Speaker 1>the United States, a lot of people are still working

0:37:20.360 --> 0:37:22.480
<v Speaker 1>from home. I look at a major city like New

0:37:22.560 --> 0:37:24.400
<v Speaker 1>York and there are still a lot of empty buildings.

0:37:24.719 --> 0:37:31.360
<v Speaker 1>How are you looking at commercial real estate specifically? A

0:37:31.520 --> 0:37:33.840
<v Speaker 1>very small portion of the universal the securities that we

0:37:33.880 --> 0:37:36.280
<v Speaker 1>look at and in years past, certainly post two thousand

0:37:36.280 --> 0:37:39.279
<v Speaker 1>and eight, we're very heavily invested in the evaluations were

0:37:39.640 --> 0:37:42.120
<v Speaker 1>rock bottom at that point in time. I do have

0:37:42.200 --> 0:37:45.080
<v Speaker 1>concern now about the elevated prices. One of the benefits

0:37:45.080 --> 0:37:48.640
<v Speaker 1>are now risks that came from unusually historically low interest

0:37:48.719 --> 0:37:52.000
<v Speaker 1>rates for so long. And the real concern, frankly, is

0:37:52.040 --> 0:37:58.000
<v Speaker 1>not only but downrays that have occurred to funds like

0:37:58.080 --> 0:38:01.040
<v Speaker 1>black Rock, but the refire risk when these bonds come,

0:38:01.480 --> 0:38:04.759
<v Speaker 1>when loans come due, whether they can underwrite them at

0:38:04.760 --> 0:38:07.480
<v Speaker 1>anywhere near the same value they have before. Certainly the

0:38:07.880 --> 0:38:10.400
<v Speaker 1>terms won't be as attractive, and we certainly know the

0:38:10.440 --> 0:38:13.239
<v Speaker 1>interest rate levels are much higher than they have been

0:38:13.560 --> 0:38:16.600
<v Speaker 1>the last three or four years. So it's a challenge.

0:38:16.640 --> 0:38:19.080
<v Speaker 1>In the office space historically was one that you could

0:38:19.120 --> 0:38:22.239
<v Speaker 1>bet on. Frank they had concerns about twenty twenty. It

0:38:22.360 --> 0:38:25.279
<v Speaker 1>was really a hotel space, then a man travel and

0:38:25.360 --> 0:38:28.600
<v Speaker 1>leisure related but now long term effects. Certainly one of

0:38:28.640 --> 0:38:32.600
<v Speaker 1>the largest subcomponents of the commercial real estate market is

0:38:32.640 --> 0:38:35.240
<v Speaker 1>office space, and it's I think you'd be very selective

0:38:35.280 --> 0:38:39.440
<v Speaker 1>and look more towards suburban and sunbelt properties then in

0:38:39.640 --> 0:38:42.719
<v Speaker 1>downtown New York Chicago, some of the old Brian can

0:38:42.760 --> 0:38:45.000
<v Speaker 1>I just ask you, is it a manageable problem in

0:38:45.120 --> 0:38:49.919
<v Speaker 1>your view or maybe not, but I think it'll take

0:38:50.440 --> 0:38:54.399
<v Speaker 1>equity infusion. Certainly. I think the properties continue to come

0:38:54.480 --> 0:38:57.080
<v Speaker 1>back over time. I think places like New York do

0:38:57.320 --> 0:39:00.640
<v Speaker 1>have a sort of migration problem, if you will, certainly

0:39:00.680 --> 0:39:04.520
<v Speaker 1>seen a number of Wall Street firms and locates on

0:39:04.600 --> 0:39:08.120
<v Speaker 1>the back office in Florida and Texas. And then of

0:39:08.200 --> 0:39:10.920
<v Speaker 1>the years have gone by the last two years joined

0:39:10.960 --> 0:39:15.319
<v Speaker 1>by more of the sales side trading side moving out

0:39:15.360 --> 0:39:19.120
<v Speaker 1>of New York, either again for tax reasons, why the reasons, certainly,

0:39:19.800 --> 0:39:23.040
<v Speaker 1>and evaluations in New York and in Chicago, I think

0:39:23.080 --> 0:39:25.799
<v Speaker 1>will continue to be pressured. And there's only I think

0:39:25.880 --> 0:39:28.759
<v Speaker 1>only so much conversion they con from office space into

0:39:28.800 --> 0:39:31.920
<v Speaker 1>residential and the sort of teenat in Pittsburgh. But at

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:35.040
<v Speaker 1>some point they saturated the market with respect to new

0:39:35.120 --> 0:39:39.759
<v Speaker 1>residential modifications to old office space. Brian, we only have

0:39:39.840 --> 0:39:41.680
<v Speaker 1>about a minute left, but I want to ask you

0:39:41.800 --> 0:39:45.440
<v Speaker 1>do you think the FED should raizor rates, pause or

0:39:45.480 --> 0:39:50.680
<v Speaker 1>cut rates at its next meeting in May about fifty fifty.

0:39:50.760 --> 0:39:52.680
<v Speaker 1>I frankly think they want to send a message of

0:39:52.800 --> 0:39:56.120
<v Speaker 1>inflation really is their first concern. They have to be

0:39:56.239 --> 0:39:57.960
<v Speaker 1>in the offs are aware of what's going on. In

0:39:58.000 --> 0:40:02.160
<v Speaker 1>the banking world. I do think that ultimately, whether they

0:40:02.239 --> 0:40:06.400
<v Speaker 1>do or don't, the message will be relatively clear that

0:40:06.480 --> 0:40:09.520
<v Speaker 1>they're done or at least on pause after the May meeting.

0:40:09.840 --> 0:40:13.040
<v Speaker 1>And again, I do think that the financial conditions industries

0:40:13.080 --> 0:40:16.480
<v Speaker 1>they pay attention to, they've seen now. Credit card balances

0:40:16.520 --> 0:40:20.080
<v Speaker 1>have gone up, loan delinquencies have certainly be under rise,

0:40:20.920 --> 0:40:25.000
<v Speaker 1>debt to income ratios on mortgages. There is definite signs

0:40:25.040 --> 0:40:28.239
<v Speaker 1>of the consumer is tapped out and have really worked

0:40:28.280 --> 0:40:31.960
<v Speaker 1>through the majority of not all, of the excess income. Yeah,

0:40:32.840 --> 0:40:37.839
<v Speaker 1>well feels like a sober or sober in tone. Brian,

0:40:37.960 --> 0:40:40.200
<v Speaker 1>great to check in week you. Brian Allen, the director

0:40:40.200 --> 0:40:43.880
<v Speaker 1>of fixed Income at Csukey Asset Management based in Pittsburgh,

0:40:43.920 --> 0:40:47.880
<v Speaker 1>were joining SPASO from Jacksonville, Florida. These is the Bloomberg

0:40:48.000 --> 0:40:52.279
<v Speaker 1>Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else

0:40:52.320 --> 0:40:56.319
<v Speaker 1>you get your podcast. Listen live week afternoons from three

0:40:56.360 --> 0:41:00.000
<v Speaker 1>to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app,

0:41:00.239 --> 0:41:02.799
<v Speaker 1>Tune In, and The Bloomberg Business and you can also

0:41:02.880 --> 0:41:06.239
<v Speaker 1>watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on

0:41:06.320 --> 0:41:07.360
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Jerminal