WEBVTT - How to Invest During a Trump Presidency 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:06.360 Bokner Trillions. 0:00:06.360 --> 0:00:10.879 I'm Joel Webber and I'm Eric Belchunas. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.240 Eric, I started to see this flurry of research notes 0:00:15.240 --> 0:00:19.200 from Bloomberg Intelligence and one or two I was like, oh, 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:20.800 that's kind of interesting, And then all of a sudden 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:23.959 it was like, wait a second, there's like something to 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:29.160 this that I think warrants an episode of Trillions, And 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:33.440 most of it happened to be coming from Athanasio Sara 0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.160 Fagus on the BI team. What has he been writing about? 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:40.839 Yeah, so Athanasios, you know that like on sometimes on 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:43.839 ESPN when they'll tell you like, hey, you know the 0:00:43.880 --> 0:00:46.559 Detroit Tigers are actually like zero and three when it's 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:48.639 raining at night on a Tuesday afternoon. 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:52.280 Yeah, like much valued research insights right there. 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.400 Yeah. I didn't know I needed that, But that is interesting. 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.440 That's Ethan for our team, and he's always unearthing these 0:00:58.480 --> 0:01:00.400 really interesting data points, and a lot of them have 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.640 to do with how the markets are behaving under a 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:07.760 Trump regime. I mean, it is a unique situation. I 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:11.160 think everybody who's gone through it realizes it seems like 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:13.959 there's a lot of chaos. Every other day, the sky's falling, 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:17.240 and the media is just goes bananas, and a lot 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:19.160 of times they're very negative. It's like, oh my god, 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:22.720 it's finally the markets are going to crash. Finally things 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:25.760 are bad, and then it isn't. I mean, I have 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.640 the numbers here. In Trump one point oh stocks one 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:33.480 up eighty percent during that four years. That's a sixteen 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:35.880 percent annualized return, so that's a little better than average 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:39.040 average is like ten. And in Trump two point zero, 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:43.200 stocks are up twenty five percent and that's sixteen percent annualized, 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:47.520 So you've gotten sixteen percent annualized return. However, what you've 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:50.440 had to have done is just sort of ignore a 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:54.880 couple really extreme situations and a more twitchy market. And 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:57.360 Vanguard investors I think have done a good job of that. 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.240 Not everybody. I think, honestly, some of the pros might 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:03.800 be actually lagging because if you've taken the bait, you 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:07.120 haven't done well. But supposedly, if you are a really 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.359 good trader, has been opportunities now and then. An Ethan 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:13.480 has really found some data in the ETFs and the 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.200 market that I think really help put numbers behind what 0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:21.040 everybody's feeling being a trader or an investor under a 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:21.960 Trump presidency. 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:26.880 So to wade us through these years of anxiety that 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:31.480 we've all endured to come to trading versus investing insights 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:35.800 under President Trump is Athanasio Sera Vegas, who's a research 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:42.040 analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, this time on trillions. How to 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:46.680 invest during a Trump presidency? Ethan welcome back to trillions. 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.200 Hey, nice to be backs intro. 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:51.639 Eric. Yeah, it's like STATUSY. 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:53.400 Didn't know you needed you needed? 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:59.320 Okay, So March happened and I noticed, you know, there's basketball, 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:03.520 so March madness. But there's been a number of things 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:07.679 that happened during Trump presidencies in March. Break that down 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:08.079 for us. 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:10.640 Yeah, if that's how it kind of came to me, 0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:12.640 It's like, didn't we go through this last March? So 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:16.200 we had obviously the Iran conflict this year. Last year 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:19.560 was Tariff's under his first presidency, was COVID that wasn't 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:21.640 really one's fault, but just happened to be towards March. 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:25.320 So if you actually look at seasonality under Trump, March 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:28.079 is really bad and normally the market's up in March, 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:32.639 so it just tends to be really bad under his administration. 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:35.880 So I think this is the bigger story here is 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:38.080 like just seasonality tends to be a little bit different 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:40.280 under Trump's because you don't necessarily know what he's going 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:41.720 to do, but he. 0:03:41.760 --> 0:03:42.800 Might not know what he's gonna do. 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.440 Yeah, you don't know what something's gonna happen in March. Yeah, 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:47.480 just so I don't know what next March will look like. 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:50.920 But that said, April then tends to be really really 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:54.480 strong under Trump, right because then he either backs off 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:57.240 or the issue gets resolved into the market's rip, So 0:03:57.280 --> 0:03:59.760 they tend to be better than it normally under him. 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:03.200 So I think just some things investors should pay attention 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.240 to is that seasonality might break down under this administration. 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:10.080 If you're sort of used to, you know, months performing well, 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.040 he might completely throw a wrench in this whole you know, 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:14.480 seasonality analysis. 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:16.320 Eric, Are you really going to take that to the bank. 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.520 Yeah, look, this could be noise. I mean the data 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.880 is really telling and the seasonality, I mean, February is 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:26.760 a little bit bad, but marches are really bad. Rest 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.600 of the year's pretty good, and the summers are great. 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:33.720 Under Trump, I think the bigger takeaway is that there 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:37.360 is a it's quick like when things seem to happen 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:40.480 under Trump, they're very quick. Like remember twenty twenty two 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:42.720 the Fed rays rates. That was like a year long affair. 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:44.760 You know, it was just bad for a year. It 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.960 seems like under Trump things are like really bad for 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.320 a minute and then they go up back up again. 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:53.400 And I think that's sort of what the vanguard type 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:57.480 investors are learning to ignore and the traders. I think 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.400 the algos are trying to get ahead of of both 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.600 the drop and the comeback up. And so there's Algos 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:07.000 doing that and then Vanguard doing nothing. But I think 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.440 where the tricky part comes in is Trump will do 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.120 or say something. Then the media is like, oh my god, 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.040 if you know, if these tariffs happen, like everything's screwed up, 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:18.279 and they really hammer that and it seems like the 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.080 market's now going to go down for the next year, 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:23.520 and it doesn't. And I think this also brings in 0:05:23.560 --> 0:05:27.960 that idea of Trump is I think watching the market, 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:29.960 and the market I think has been a governor on him. 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:32.120 So like whether there was the tariffs or Iran, it 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:35.039 seems like every time the SMP got two down, he 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:36.320 would like give good news. 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:37.880 Yeah, there's like a check. 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.440 Yeah, it looks like a check on him, because at 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.599 the end of the day he wants to brag about 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:44.840 the stock market, I think, and so I think that's 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:48.240 the ultimate takeaway is his bark is sometimes worse than 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.880 his bite. He does this as a negotiating style, and 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.599 it's showing up in the data. Now why March, I 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:55.800 don't know. I mean, we live in the Northeast. This 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.280 month is the worst month in the year in my opinion. 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.200 I mean, the Super Bowls over all, the holidays are over, 0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:03.520 and it's still cold, and you're like, I am so 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:05.960 over it. Like so, I don't know if it's like 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:09.920 literally the seasonality of the season, but there is some 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:11.599 some kind of voodoo going on in March. 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:14.520 There used to be three branches of governments. Now there's 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:16.720 a fourth. It's called markets. And it's just that that's 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:19.600 the check on Trump. Okay, So based on what you're saying, 0:06:19.640 --> 0:06:23.320 then if March February is bad, March is way worse. 0:06:23.680 --> 0:06:26.839 April comes back. So maybe I should stay out of 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:30.919 things on March, double down, three X, leverage everything in 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:33.960 April and then you know, according to conventional wisdom, here, ehn, 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:36.720 I sell in May and go a how's that hold up. 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:39.000 Oh, that's another one that doesn't work. 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:39.760 You know. 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:42.520 It's these old technicians. They have like these old terms 0:06:42.560 --> 0:06:43.000 that they. 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:44.200 This one goes way back. 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:45.920 Yeah, I read the history of it goes back to 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:49.679 actually London even before like the SMP existed with horse races. 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:52.839 So basically the premise here is you sell in May 0:06:53.200 --> 0:06:55.400 and you go come back in October because it's such 0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:57.600 a week period. But then we looked at the last 0:06:57.600 --> 0:06:59.400 ten years. Do you know, by the way, that sounds great, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.400 but I think for a vacation it sounds good. But 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:04.520 for investing it actually hasn't worked. 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.720 That's normal for Europe. 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:09.320 Yeah, that's all right, Maybe it works there. 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:13.160 Our big motto in the team troll is invest in 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:15.400 the US so you can retire in Europe. 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.000 Okay, yeah, I think that's the move. 0:07:19.160 --> 0:07:21.480 Well, Ethan's working on that. He's Greek, so you know, 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:23.520 you know it's where to end up. So the what 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:26.720 is the data show so about selling in May and 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:27.120 going away. 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:28.760 Let's say if you did this over the last ten years, 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.440 do you know how many years it was down there 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:32.800 in this period? Can you guess? 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:38.160 Uh, things have just kind of like trucked upward. I 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.040 guess one one year, one year. 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:42.520 Yeah, and even last year actually you would have missed 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:45.280 out on a twenty two percent gain in the market. 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:47.760 So I think let's sell, right, I'm not just not 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:50.360 invested in general, but it's just it's tough. This adage 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:53.360 doesn't seem to work. And then even if you did sell, 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:55.400 so what would you do Probably go into bombs, right, 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:57.920 So let's just compare stocks first bonds. Only in a 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.400 handful of years that bombs actually do better than stocks 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.400 during this period. So I don't know why people still 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:06.000 bring this up, right, it just seems like nothing there 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:08.520 supports that you should be out of the market for 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.760 six months. How far back did you go in your 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:14.000 research because we're doing ETFs, I went back to using spy, 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:16.920 which is thirty three or so years, which I think 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:19.440 is pretty you know, I think a pretty. 0:08:19.200 --> 0:08:20.040 Solid data set. 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:23.840 Yeah, and again only a handful of years was it 0:08:23.880 --> 0:08:25.360 actually down during this period? 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:25.680 Right? 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:28.960 If anything, sell in March, come in April. That might 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:31.800 be the takeaway so far, don't sell in May, especially 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.040 because the sommer months under Trump are also very good. 0:08:34.440 --> 0:08:36.640 But I think, like Ethan said, like just don't sell, 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:39.360 and I think that's what the Van Guardians have figured 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:42.080 out because every time there's the sell off, the most 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.679 of the money into cheap beatis still comes in. One 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:46.560 other interesting thing, and this is where I come to 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:50.200 my intro of like, you know, whether the Detroit Tigers 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:52.680 are like what the record is at night? You know 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.280 on a Tuesday, is that you have a stat here 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:59.960 days of the week under Trump, So you have Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.160 Every single day of the week is up above the 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:08.160 average except one which is way below the average. Again, 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:09.959 this is like the day of the week version of 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:14.160 the months, and that day is Thursday. So there's just 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.800 something going on with Thursdays where it's just awful under Trump. 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.080 Every other day, fine, what is that? 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:23.000 I think the first one we talked about Marx, that's 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:25.280 just coincidental. This one, I think actually has a little 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:27.360 bit more merit. I know it sounds ridiculous or like 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:32.040 days of the week, but honestly, under Trump, it's exhausting, right, 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:33.680 you don't know what he's going to say, what's going 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:35.760 to happen during the weekend. So I think what is 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:38.199 happening is people don't want to hold over the weekend. 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:40.960 They want to sell their positions a d risk before 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:42.839 they go into Friday and over the weekend. So I 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:46.520 think that's why there's more downloaded pressure on SAT on Thursdays. 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:48.199 Just like I don't know what's going to happen. I 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.120 don't want to be exposed to all this risk, and 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.160 what tends to happen is not all the trading happens 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.360 in the middle of the week Tuesday and Wednesday. So again, 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:58.200 I know it sounds kind of ridiculous, but I think 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:01.160 that is why there's a lot of de risking happening 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:01.880 towards the end of. 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.600 The week so that we can have a decent Friday. 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.959 Yeah, I just enjoy your weekend started working on a Friday. 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:12.040 So Thursdays, if you're gonna be trading, Thursdays the ones 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:13.000 to watch out for. 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.280 I nen though there's twenty four hour trading, but it's like, 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:30.200 I don't know, that's exhausting. They're gonna be checking your 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.640 accounts on the weekends, so if I don't know, you 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:34.959 gotta get away from it for a little bit. So 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.240 I think that's what's happening with this Thursday phenomenon. 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:41.040 Talk to me about night moves now, I don't want 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:42.880 to know everything about your night moves. But just like 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:45.760 how it really the trumpet, I mean those night moves, 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:48.520 the g version please. 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:53.240 I think very similar to the Thursday phenomenon, and I 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.560 think it works with a couple acid classes. So the 0:10:55.679 --> 0:11:00.520 night move is you would only hold the positions over right, 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:02.559 so you buy it the clothes and then sell it 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.079 the open. If you look at that relative to what 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.280 the SMP is doing intra day like normal market hours, 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.600 it's actually been better to hold overnight, but it's also 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:13.440 been a lot more viold. And I think this feeds 0:11:13.440 --> 0:11:15.600 in again to the trump You know, you don't want time. 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:17.600 He's not going to tweet between nine thirty and four. 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.000 You might tweet whenever, so you tend to have these 0:11:20.040 --> 0:11:24.120 really violent moves overnight, a pop up or down. I 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:26.640 think this phenomenon is kind of catching on because now 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.640 there's a bitcoin ETF that does this, and that one 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.600 kind of makes sense, this twenty four hour trading and bitcoin. 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:35.679 So I think, again similar to the Thursday thing, people 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.400 don't want to hold overnight, so they'll be selling during 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:40.680 the day, and then there's a move that happens, you know, 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.680 before the open, and you know and that seems to 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:44.200 be working. 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:46.280 And now bring it back to your research, like, what 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:48.120 what is the tangible takeaway here? 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.400 Don't hold the market during market hours, don't hold the 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:53.480 S and P which is ridiculous, right, Like, I don't 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:55.679 know how how much long jeopardy there is to it, 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:59.440 but it just seems that this holding it overnight has 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.080 been better been holding it during the day or more 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.040 of the returns have come overnight. This doesn't always work, 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.360 like there's been years where this doesn't work, but under Trump, 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:10.000 it seems that this is more like. 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:14.760 Profound yeah, or just again hold the whole time. 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.360 Yeah, I don't overthinking. 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.240 We talk about that a lot on the team. It's 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.040 like you know that midwit meme where there's like the 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:26.400 dumb dumb and then the Jedi, and then there's the 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:28.480 guy up at the top in the middle of the 0:12:28.480 --> 0:12:31.480 bell curve who's like, oh, we're gonna sell here by 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:33.800 here do this, and all these numbers and greeks are 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:37.000 coming out of his mouth, and like, honestly, like just 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:40.560 whole good things are really the simple way to do this. 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:45.439 It's interesting about Athen's overnight study. He also found, unrelated 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.439 to Trump, that bitcoin actually did better outside of US hours. 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.360 In fact, almost all the returns since the ETFs came out, 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:56.680 we're off of overnight sessions. And they actually now have 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.920 an ETF that does that, called the night I forget 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:01.720 what it's called night owl. 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.000 Yeah yeah, cooin one. Yeah. 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.240 By the way, so his research found the data to 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.199 be true, but then since the ETF has come out, 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.760 it's underperforming the regular one. 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.720 Yeah, and this is the danger with this kind of stuff, right, 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.720 and yeah, we can find cool stats and anomalies, but 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:24.000 you know, sometimes they don't necessarily translate into good investment ideas. 0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:29.440 Okay, what you are describing throughout here kind of makes sense, 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.760 Like just keep buying good stuff, hold it, don't make 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:37.360 dumb decisions. Also, don't take you know, may till October 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:42.360 off right rational? Uh, it does feel just as a 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.560 civilian through all of this that there's a lot more freakouts. 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.960 Is that does that? Is that real? Uh? 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:51.120 Definitely? Again, going back to you don't know what he's 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.680 going to tweet. I think it's two things. One, just 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.400 the growth of ETFs. They're becoming a bigger part of trading, 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.439 so the numbers will go up. You know, we probably 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:04.280 should inflation the justices, but nonetheless under Trump. So last 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:07.200 year and then this year, we like to use sixty 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:09.319 billion as a number, like if the SMP trades more 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:11.719 than this, spy, this is sort of what we call 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:16.160 like a freak out level. It's a really aggressive threshold. 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.000 Happened something like twenty plus times last year. It's a 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:22.120 daily number, daily number, and this year is already a 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.320 record and we're only in April, right, and a lot 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:29.040 of times normally this happens during down markets, but with 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:32.720 him there's also a lot of trading with upside too. 0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.640 So again I think it's just whether people are tense 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.960 under him, or they feel maybe the market's more fragile 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:42.440 in general. Anytime there's like something comes out of his mouth, 0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.760 there's this quick trigger that people want to sell. There's 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.640 a lot of rebalancing going on, maybe some profit taking. 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.200 So there's definitely this elevated tension in the market than 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.600 there were in years when he's not in his president. 0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:59.400 In March this year, Jual the all ETFs traded nine trillion. 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.720 That is far a record. It's almost like forty percent 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:07.280 over the record, and it is just extraordinary. So I 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:09.720 think a inflation like a trillion isn't what it used 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.480 to be. But I do think again also the popularity 0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.160 of ETFs, people lean on them more when there's a problem. 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:18.800 But I think in general, I think what you have 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.720 is a lot of algos set up that like literally 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.280 are linked to his Twitter and like his press conferences. 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:26.840 I remember this from Trump one point zero, and I 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:30.560 just think that algos go wild trying to again front 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.240 run a quick sellof and then front run the buyback, 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.800 and so you have just machines fighting each other based 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.920 on his tweets and whatnot. Because the ETF flows into 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:44.840 like regular stuff, it's pretty consistent, and so I think 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.760 a lot of this selling is like algos, and obviously 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.320 ETFs becoming more popular and even used by some of 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.520 the hedge funds based on these algos. So but that's 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:56.800 why ETFs broke the volume record last year and are 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.360 probably a shoe in to break it this year. There Joel, 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:03.160 the ETFs may trade close to one hundred trillion dollars 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:06.320 in volume this year. I'm old enough to remember when 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.200 like twenty thirty trillion was a record year, and they're 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:11.760 going to break the record. Last year, the record was 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:14.360 set at fifty five sixty they're on pace for like 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:17.920 ninety two ninety five trillion. It's unbelieved when we're going 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:23.520 to pass last year's mark, I mean probably like August 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:27.080 September at this rate, all right, which is wild. Yeah, 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:29.760 it's it's crazy. But I think Trump's part of that. 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:31.200 I think the other part of it is just as 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:35.000 way more products and way more people using ETFs. Even 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.000 some of the bigger fish that have come around and 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.880 use them for certain things. They when they trade, they 0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:41.680 had trade with a lot of money, and so the 0:16:41.960 --> 0:16:43.960 dollar volume number definitely gets inflated by them. 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:48.120 Spy makes for a really great proxy for research like this, 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.120 But I'm curious because it's kind of not the same 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.720 thing that it used to be, right as like it's 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.120 still you know, if you're looking at trading like it's 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.200 it's still number one, but you've got like VU an 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.880 IVV that have really starting to like erode some of 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:07.960 that number one feeling. You have to account for that 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.720 by like you know, broadening your s and P five 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:12.040 hundred research a little bit. 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:14.680 I think eventually we're gonna have to. Then. I think 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:17.480 with that, the fact that it still reaches these thresholds 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.680 is still impressive. Because it's competing with more products now, 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:22.720 but I agree. I think at some point we're probably 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.119 gonna have to look at an aggregate of a bunch 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.679 of smp ets just because the growth of the I mean, 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:31.200 the VO is about to hit a trillion dollars, so 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.000 you know that's significant, not nothing, So it needs to 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:34.760 be accounted for. 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.720 Eric says, trillion is not anything anymore like now that 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:39.600 we now that we have inflation. But I you know, 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:42.560 I apologize in advance that I just made your research 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:43.640 a little bit more complicated. 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:45.480 You're gonna have to change the name of this podcast. 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.720 Inflation adjusts that eventually trillions Moss. 0:17:49.560 --> 0:17:53.280 Okay, your final insight. Don't fight the Fed or the 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:54.640 White House. What's that about? 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.080 Man? Okay, So this is not our idea. But this 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:59.960 was a NETF that was filed called the Government Griff 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:08.320 GRFT Creative. It's from Tuttle. Uh So basically this was soccer. Yeah, 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:12.000 this was to buy companies that are closely tied to 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:17.280 the government's current administration. And so you know, we there's 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.479 some you know, no one wants to list it. That's 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:22.960 the problem. That's why it's still in filing. So we 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:25.840 tried to recreate it, and for the most part you 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.600 can get some real it's pretty simple, like the government 0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:32.040 is taking steaks in these certain companies. Trump Intel's one, 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:35.480 Oh yeah, that's been a good one, or he's literally 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:37.840 putting tickers in his tweets. Right, So, if let's say, 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.240 if we were to build a portfolio of this, it 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:42.440 would have done really well, right compared to the S 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:44.440 and P. Even if you bought it after you don't 0:18:44.480 --> 0:18:46.879 know when they're going to take these positions. Even if 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.159 you buy it after, it's done way better than the 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.639 S and P five hundred. So just we had this idea, 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:55.040 it's just sometimes don't overthink it, right however you feel 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:58.720 about government taking states, steaks and companies, but all the 0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:01.240 most if you built this basket, well most of them 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:03.760 have been up ever since they took a stake in it. 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.080 And there's something that exists out there. There's one that 0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:10.320 tracks picks from Democratic candidates and Republican candidates, so those 0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:13.320 names would probably be in this portfolio as well. But yeah, 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.240 just instead of you know, don't fight what they're going 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.639 to buy, they're literally telling you what tickers they're buying, 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:21.200 and that just for now has been a strategy that's 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:23.959 paid off if you ended up falling into those same tickers. 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:26.200 All right, Joel, let me read some of the stocks 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:29.560 that Ethan put in his basket and why so, Intel, 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:35.920 MP Materials, Lithium, America's Trilogy Metals, and USA Rare Earth. 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:39.520 Those are all literal government stakes, and all of them 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:41.879 are up a ton, except Trilogy is about flat. But 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:49.000 that's you got in retrospect. How obvious Navidia and AMD 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:53.200 are revenue sharing. They're both up palenteered down. That was 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:56.600 one where he just endorsed it, and then there's some 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:00.359