1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:23,316 Speaker 1: Bushkin. In C. S. Lewis's famous book The Lion, the 2 00:00:23,356 --> 00:00:27,036 Speaker 1: Witch and the Wardrobe, the Pevensey Children happen upon the 3 00:00:27,076 --> 00:00:30,996 Speaker 1: magical land of Narnia, entering through a secret passage in 4 00:00:31,036 --> 00:00:35,236 Speaker 1: an English country house. When I spoke with Uniwong about 5 00:00:35,236 --> 00:00:38,636 Speaker 1: her own adventures, that story was the first thing she 6 00:00:38,716 --> 00:00:40,716 Speaker 1: brought up until recently. 7 00:00:40,796 --> 00:00:43,316 Speaker 2: The path into war gaming is similar to the path 8 00:00:43,356 --> 00:00:46,796 Speaker 2: to getting to Narnia. You stumble upon it by accident. 9 00:00:46,916 --> 00:00:49,196 Speaker 2: It's not of your own design. You don't even know 10 00:00:49,236 --> 00:00:49,796 Speaker 2: it exists. 11 00:00:50,836 --> 00:00:55,156 Speaker 1: Narnia an imaginary world that teaches us something important about 12 00:00:55,196 --> 00:01:03,396 Speaker 1: the real world. Uniwog zoom background is a steal from 13 00:01:03,476 --> 00:01:06,276 Speaker 1: Star Wars R two D two, standing next to C 14 00:01:06,476 --> 00:01:10,036 Speaker 1: three po. She's part of the group of intellectual scholars 15 00:01:10,076 --> 00:01:15,076 Speaker 1: PhDs strategists who spend their careers helping the Pentagon think 16 00:01:15,076 --> 00:01:19,316 Speaker 1: about how to better wage war and more importantly, how 17 00:01:19,356 --> 00:01:22,516 Speaker 1: to better avoid war, and how do they do that 18 00:01:23,356 --> 00:01:24,516 Speaker 1: by playing games. 19 00:01:29,676 --> 00:01:32,796 Speaker 2: Someone said I should go to the Connection's worgaming conference. 20 00:01:32,916 --> 00:01:35,796 Speaker 2: So that was in twenty eleven. But I walked into 21 00:01:35,876 --> 00:01:39,476 Speaker 2: this room of middle aged men in baseball paths, hunched 22 00:01:39,516 --> 00:01:42,956 Speaker 2: over miniatures, rolling dice, and I suddenly had this sense 23 00:01:42,996 --> 00:01:45,916 Speaker 2: that I had come home and these were my people, 24 00:01:46,236 --> 00:01:48,196 Speaker 2: and this is what I was supposed to have been 25 00:01:48,196 --> 00:01:50,316 Speaker 2: doing all along, and I didn't know it. 26 00:01:50,716 --> 00:01:53,276 Speaker 1: Why was it You walk in that room and you say, oh, 27 00:01:53,316 --> 00:01:56,196 Speaker 1: this is where I belong. Can you explain why you 28 00:01:56,236 --> 00:01:56,876 Speaker 1: had that feeling? 29 00:01:57,556 --> 00:02:02,756 Speaker 2: I think it's the this is the It's the geekdom, right, 30 00:02:02,836 --> 00:02:06,236 Speaker 2: Like geeks recognize each other at a deep level. So 31 00:02:06,316 --> 00:02:10,116 Speaker 2: I recognize this brand of geeks at a deep level 32 00:02:10,156 --> 00:02:11,836 Speaker 2: that I didn't realize existed. 33 00:02:15,556 --> 00:02:18,156 Speaker 1: I'm fascinated by the idea that there's a certain kind 34 00:02:18,156 --> 00:02:20,316 Speaker 1: of insight that you can only get from a simulation. 35 00:02:21,156 --> 00:02:24,676 Speaker 1: Can you explain why is that? Why can't Why can't 36 00:02:24,676 --> 00:02:26,356 Speaker 1: I look at a scenario with a bunch of smart 37 00:02:26,356 --> 00:02:28,476 Speaker 1: people and without a simulation, come up with all of 38 00:02:28,476 --> 00:02:30,796 Speaker 1: the different angles in a dance just on our own. 39 00:02:31,396 --> 00:02:32,476 Speaker 1: Why do we need a wargame? 40 00:02:33,196 --> 00:02:36,756 Speaker 2: I think we will invoke Thomas Shelling as is appropriate 41 00:02:36,796 --> 00:02:40,476 Speaker 2: for nearly all occasions related to deterrence and wargaming and 42 00:02:40,556 --> 00:02:42,236 Speaker 2: anything I think truly imaginative. 43 00:02:42,876 --> 00:02:46,236 Speaker 1: Thomas Shelling was an economist, a Nobel Prize winner, and 44 00:02:46,276 --> 00:02:48,916 Speaker 1: the spiritual godfather of the wargaming world. 45 00:02:49,276 --> 00:02:53,876 Speaker 3: Game theory is merely the study of how rational people 46 00:02:53,956 --> 00:02:58,476 Speaker 3: interact when they know that their decisions impinge on each other, 47 00:02:59,236 --> 00:03:02,476 Speaker 3: when people have to anticipate what another will do or 48 00:03:02,476 --> 00:03:05,796 Speaker 3: what another is already doing, or when people try to 49 00:03:05,876 --> 00:03:09,476 Speaker 3: influence the choices of others through threats and promise and 50 00:03:09,596 --> 00:03:13,636 Speaker 3: various devices to change their expectations of how one will behave. 51 00:03:14,356 --> 00:03:17,916 Speaker 2: He once wrote that no one, no matter how intelligent, 52 00:03:18,036 --> 00:03:19,796 Speaker 2: can make a list of the things that would not 53 00:03:19,876 --> 00:03:21,196 Speaker 2: occur to them. 54 00:03:21,396 --> 00:03:24,316 Speaker 1: And if we've learned anything recently, it is surely that 55 00:03:24,356 --> 00:03:27,796 Speaker 1: there is an ever expanding list of things that have 56 00:03:27,876 --> 00:03:32,396 Speaker 1: not occurred to us. My name is Malcolm Gladwell. You're 57 00:03:32,476 --> 00:03:37,276 Speaker 1: listening to Revisionist History by podcast about things overlooked and misunderstood. 58 00:03:38,156 --> 00:03:41,516 Speaker 1: This episode is about the idea that the best way 59 00:03:41,636 --> 00:03:45,276 Speaker 1: to prepare for the unexpected is not to make plans 60 00:03:45,756 --> 00:03:52,076 Speaker 1: or predictions, but to play games, not board games. Grand 61 00:03:52,396 --> 00:03:57,036 Speaker 1: theatrical productions costing many thousands of dollars, planned over months, 62 00:03:57,116 --> 00:04:01,396 Speaker 1: stretching for days, experts and specialists playing each role, each 63 00:04:01,636 --> 00:04:04,116 Speaker 1: with the passion of an actor on a Broadway stage, 64 00:04:04,396 --> 00:04:06,716 Speaker 1: with the hope that the rest of us will learn 65 00:04:06,716 --> 00:04:19,636 Speaker 1: from what they found in their elaborate imagine worlds. When 66 00:04:19,636 --> 00:04:21,916 Speaker 1: I was young, we lived in a house by the 67 00:04:22,036 --> 00:04:25,236 Speaker 1: highway with a very long, narrow backyard one hundred and 68 00:04:25,316 --> 00:04:28,196 Speaker 1: fifty yards deep, lined with what must have been more 69 00:04:28,196 --> 00:04:32,276 Speaker 1: than one hundred tall pauper trees. In the fall, when 70 00:04:32,276 --> 00:04:35,436 Speaker 1: the leaves fell, we all realized that raking the leaves 71 00:04:35,476 --> 00:04:39,636 Speaker 1: would be an overwhelming task. So my father through a party. 72 00:04:40,316 --> 00:04:43,036 Speaker 1: He was a math professor and decided to invite all 73 00:04:43,076 --> 00:04:45,956 Speaker 1: of his graduate students in the afternoon. He told them 74 00:04:46,076 --> 00:04:48,556 Speaker 1: they would deal with the leaves. In the evening, there 75 00:04:48,556 --> 00:04:51,476 Speaker 1: would be a big dinner and then party games of 76 00:04:51,516 --> 00:04:55,476 Speaker 1: the sort that eccentric math professors consider appropriate for their 77 00:04:55,476 --> 00:05:00,076 Speaker 1: graduate students. My father students were all from overseas, from 78 00:05:00,076 --> 00:05:03,676 Speaker 1: the top colleges of India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Israel. I 79 00:05:03,716 --> 00:05:06,196 Speaker 1: don't think any of them had ever raked leaves before, 80 00:05:06,716 --> 00:05:09,076 Speaker 1: but my father believed strongly that a day of year 81 00:05:09,116 --> 00:05:12,116 Speaker 1: hard work and playing games was as good as life. 82 00:05:12,116 --> 00:05:19,476 Speaker 1: God and his students picked up on his enthusiasm. The 83 00:05:19,556 --> 00:05:24,116 Speaker 1: leaf raking turned into sport. The games were hilarious, they convoluted, 84 00:05:24,316 --> 00:05:27,236 Speaker 1: and the party proved such a success that Every year, 85 00:05:27,516 --> 00:05:29,916 Speaker 1: a new crop of students would show up, and the 86 00:05:29,996 --> 00:05:34,036 Speaker 1: leaf breakers from previous years would invite themselves back, until 87 00:05:34,036 --> 00:05:38,196 Speaker 1: the party became huge, a united nations of math geeks 88 00:05:38,196 --> 00:05:42,316 Speaker 1: in our backyard, creating huge piles of leaves calling out 89 00:05:42,356 --> 00:05:49,276 Speaker 1: to each other in strange accents. My working definition of 90 00:05:49,436 --> 00:05:53,356 Speaker 1: smart at the age of eight or nine was knowing things. 91 00:05:53,876 --> 00:05:56,156 Speaker 1: But when I listened in on the dozens of Africans 92 00:05:56,156 --> 00:05:59,036 Speaker 1: and Indians in my backyard, it seemed to me that 93 00:05:59,116 --> 00:06:02,636 Speaker 1: they defined themselves by what they didn't know. They would 94 00:06:02,636 --> 00:06:06,076 Speaker 1: never say I just solved such and such problem that 95 00:06:06,236 --> 00:06:10,076 Speaker 1: was boring ancient history. They would say, I'm working on 96 00:06:10,156 --> 00:06:13,676 Speaker 1: a problem. There is something that I don't understand that 97 00:06:13,756 --> 00:06:15,956 Speaker 1: I wish I did, and an even larger group of 98 00:06:15,996 --> 00:06:18,956 Speaker 1: things I don't yet know that I don't know, with 99 00:06:19,036 --> 00:06:22,116 Speaker 1: the clear implication the pleasure of finding out the unknown 100 00:06:22,516 --> 00:06:26,596 Speaker 1: was why they got up in the morning. I hadn't 101 00:06:26,636 --> 00:06:28,796 Speaker 1: thought of the leaf raking party for a long time 102 00:06:29,356 --> 00:06:34,196 Speaker 1: until I started talking to the wargamers, when I realized, oh, 103 00:06:34,716 --> 00:06:37,436 Speaker 1: these people all belonged to the same tribe. 104 00:06:37,876 --> 00:06:41,236 Speaker 4: I think that what wargaming does is by putting people 105 00:06:41,436 --> 00:06:48,676 Speaker 4: in these simulated positions, these realistic but unreal realities. It 106 00:06:48,916 --> 00:06:53,796 Speaker 4: encourages them to and exposes them to things they maybe 107 00:06:53,876 --> 00:06:55,196 Speaker 4: haven't bought up. 108 00:06:55,756 --> 00:06:58,756 Speaker 1: That's David Shlaypak, who was one of the founding directors 109 00:06:58,796 --> 00:07:02,276 Speaker 1: of the Center for Gaming at the RAND Corporation. RAND 110 00:07:02,436 --> 00:07:04,796 Speaker 1: is the big think tank out in Santa Monica that's 111 00:07:04,796 --> 00:07:08,356 Speaker 1: been running wargames for years. Yuniwong worked at RAND, so 112 00:07:08,476 --> 00:07:12,156 Speaker 1: did Thomashef, author of The Wargamer's Creed. One of the 113 00:07:12,196 --> 00:07:15,476 Speaker 1: things Shlaypack started doing in his wargames was to make 114 00:07:15,596 --> 00:07:19,796 Speaker 1: the element of chance tangible. You have one army against another, 115 00:07:20,116 --> 00:07:22,276 Speaker 1: you make a list of the ten different things that 116 00:07:22,396 --> 00:07:26,316 Speaker 1: could conceivably happen, and then you roll the dice. 117 00:07:26,796 --> 00:07:29,356 Speaker 4: And the first time we did that, I was terrified. 118 00:07:30,516 --> 00:07:32,356 Speaker 4: I was thinking, when we go in front of a 119 00:07:32,356 --> 00:07:35,396 Speaker 4: bunch of people who have experienced combat, who have actually 120 00:07:35,396 --> 00:07:39,196 Speaker 4: been fighting real wars for the last fifteen years, and 121 00:07:39,236 --> 00:07:42,916 Speaker 4: we show them that we're going to use dice, they're 122 00:07:42,956 --> 00:07:44,796 Speaker 4: just gonna laugh us out of the room. And we 123 00:07:44,796 --> 00:07:47,596 Speaker 4: had all sorts of arguments prepared about why that was legitimate. 124 00:07:47,996 --> 00:07:50,676 Speaker 1: He was going to play the wargame with senior military 125 00:07:50,676 --> 00:07:53,276 Speaker 1: officers and he didn't know how they would react. 126 00:07:53,676 --> 00:07:59,396 Speaker 4: We were ready to defend it, and nobody batted an eyelash. 127 00:07:59,716 --> 00:08:03,836 Speaker 1: The military guys playing Schlapeck's games didn't want things to 128 00:08:03,876 --> 00:08:07,676 Speaker 1: be predictable. Predictable they could do on their own. What 129 00:08:07,756 --> 00:08:10,556 Speaker 1: they wanted was to be forced off the narrow path 130 00:08:10,596 --> 00:08:18,076 Speaker 1: that logic and prior experience would have them follow. Schleepek 131 00:08:18,356 --> 00:08:20,276 Speaker 1: was once involved in a game to test what would 132 00:08:20,276 --> 00:08:25,356 Speaker 1: happen if the Russians invaded the Baltics, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, 133 00:08:25,516 --> 00:08:29,596 Speaker 1: three small countries right next to Russia, all members of NATO. 134 00:08:29,836 --> 00:08:32,636 Speaker 1: If Russia attacked, it would face the wrath of Western 135 00:08:32,636 --> 00:08:36,796 Speaker 1: Europe plus the United States. On paper, the wargame seemed 136 00:08:36,836 --> 00:08:39,596 Speaker 1: to be based on a dumb question. Who would win? 137 00:08:39,836 --> 00:08:40,716 Speaker 1: We would? 138 00:08:41,916 --> 00:08:47,476 Speaker 4: NATO has thirty five times Russia's GDP. Russia is just 139 00:08:47,516 --> 00:08:50,676 Speaker 4: emerging from this demographic crisis that is more severe than 140 00:08:51,476 --> 00:08:55,876 Speaker 4: any that's ever been inflicted on an advanced nation. Their 141 00:08:55,916 --> 00:08:59,196 Speaker 4: military has been on the downslope for twenty five years. 142 00:08:59,796 --> 00:09:02,156 Speaker 4: This is a no brainer. Of course NATO's going to win. 143 00:09:03,636 --> 00:09:06,756 Speaker 1: But the first time they played it, NATO didn't win. 144 00:09:07,156 --> 00:09:11,076 Speaker 1: Russia did now mean Russia would actually win in a 145 00:09:11,116 --> 00:09:14,036 Speaker 1: battle against the Baltics. No, this was a game, an 146 00:09:14,076 --> 00:09:17,916 Speaker 1: active imagination, but it did show everyone involved that an 147 00:09:17,956 --> 00:09:23,676 Speaker 1: absurdly remote possibility had to be taken seriously. Schlapek ran 148 00:09:23,716 --> 00:09:28,156 Speaker 1: the game again and again. Russia always won. 149 00:09:28,436 --> 00:09:32,596 Speaker 4: Russia's always winning, and in fact we eventually started telling people, look, 150 00:09:33,356 --> 00:09:36,316 Speaker 4: we've done everything except go out on the street and 151 00:09:36,356 --> 00:09:40,356 Speaker 4: grab random individuals and ask them to play. And no 152 00:09:40,396 --> 00:09:44,396 Speaker 4: one's done better than X. Can you do better than X? 153 00:09:46,316 --> 00:09:51,036 Speaker 1: The expectations and predictions of experts are useful, but only 154 00:09:51,156 --> 00:09:54,316 Speaker 1: up to a point. The war game is where you 155 00:09:54,356 --> 00:10:13,036 Speaker 1: put those expectations to the test. A few years ago 156 00:10:13,316 --> 00:10:16,556 Speaker 1: I was invited to join Rand's Board of Trustees. It 157 00:10:16,676 --> 00:10:20,276 Speaker 1: requires two meetings a year, one at RAND headquarters in 158 00:10:20,356 --> 00:10:23,196 Speaker 1: Santa Monica, the other at their office near the Pentagon 159 00:10:23,516 --> 00:10:27,556 Speaker 1: in northern Virginia. Half of every board meeting is devoted 160 00:10:27,556 --> 00:10:32,556 Speaker 1: to the kinds of things that nonprofits worry about, budgets, fundraising, hiring. 161 00:10:33,036 --> 00:10:37,836 Speaker 1: The other half is research presentations from RAND staffers, like 162 00:10:38,436 --> 00:10:41,276 Speaker 1: the electricity grid in Puerto Rico has just been wiped 163 00:10:41,316 --> 00:10:43,796 Speaker 1: out by Hurricane Maria. How much would it take to 164 00:10:43,836 --> 00:10:48,276 Speaker 1: fix it? Or do American school children get enough sleep. 165 00:10:49,036 --> 00:10:53,356 Speaker 1: But my favorite presentations are always the war games. Like 166 00:10:53,396 --> 00:10:56,716 Speaker 1: this one. The Army comes to RAND with a question. 167 00:10:57,436 --> 00:11:00,556 Speaker 5: They asked us to do a war game type of 168 00:11:00,596 --> 00:11:04,836 Speaker 5: analysis to understand what it would take to secure loose 169 00:11:04,916 --> 00:11:07,236 Speaker 5: nuclear weapons in a failed North Korean state. 170 00:11:07,716 --> 00:11:11,916 Speaker 1: That's Colonel John Gentia, retired Army former tank commander. He 171 00:11:11,956 --> 00:11:15,276 Speaker 1: did two tours in Iraq. He's a doctorate from Stanford 172 00:11:15,476 --> 00:11:18,476 Speaker 1: and taught history at West Point. He's now a senior 173 00:11:18,596 --> 00:11:21,276 Speaker 1: historian at RAND, and he gave a presentation to the 174 00:11:21,276 --> 00:11:26,676 Speaker 1: board about his North Korean game. Wargames always start with 175 00:11:26,756 --> 00:11:31,036 Speaker 1: a path to war, an imaginary but plausible scenario that 176 00:11:31,156 --> 00:11:35,236 Speaker 1: explains why a conflict might start. In this case, the 177 00:11:35,276 --> 00:11:39,516 Speaker 1: scenario was a sudden spike intentions between North Korea and 178 00:11:39,556 --> 00:11:40,836 Speaker 1: the United States. 179 00:11:42,836 --> 00:11:46,316 Speaker 5: That led to a number of other events where the 180 00:11:46,396 --> 00:11:50,156 Speaker 5: US starts to mobilize forces in the US ground forces 181 00:11:50,396 --> 00:11:53,316 Speaker 5: starts putting him on ships, you know, in the ports 182 00:11:53,356 --> 00:11:56,796 Speaker 5: of Texas in California. North Korea is aware of all 183 00:11:56,836 --> 00:12:01,356 Speaker 5: of this, tells the US to stop, and it doesn't. 184 00:12:01,516 --> 00:12:03,996 Speaker 5: And I think at some point in that road to 185 00:12:04,076 --> 00:12:09,876 Speaker 5: war scenario, we had the North Koreans firing a small 186 00:12:10,436 --> 00:12:14,636 Speaker 5: nuclear round and just know it was a conventional missile 187 00:12:14,956 --> 00:12:17,156 Speaker 5: that hit the US island of guang. 188 00:12:21,036 --> 00:12:24,596 Speaker 1: Just imagine that this had actually happened, a North Korean 189 00:12:24,596 --> 00:12:28,196 Speaker 1: attack on American soil. The world will be in crisis. 190 00:12:28,716 --> 00:12:32,276 Speaker 1: The US would have to respond. But the problem is 191 00:12:32,316 --> 00:12:36,676 Speaker 1: that North Korea is a country with an expanding nuclear program, 192 00:12:36,756 --> 00:12:39,236 Speaker 1: and if a war broke out, a whole lot of 193 00:12:39,476 --> 00:12:43,796 Speaker 1: exceedingly dangerous nuclear material would suddenly be floating around in 194 00:12:43,836 --> 00:12:46,796 Speaker 1: the midst of a whole lot of chaos. The army 195 00:12:46,796 --> 00:12:50,036 Speaker 1: one to know what would happen next, what would it 196 00:12:50,076 --> 00:12:58,156 Speaker 1: take to round up all those stray nukes. Rand spent 197 00:12:58,356 --> 00:13:01,796 Speaker 1: months blending the game. Then Genteel and his team flew 198 00:13:01,836 --> 00:13:04,156 Speaker 1: to South Korea to play it out for the army 199 00:13:04,636 --> 00:13:07,756 Speaker 1: a big conference room a map of the Korean peninsula 200 00:13:07,796 --> 00:13:08,396 Speaker 1: on the table. 201 00:13:09,316 --> 00:13:12,596 Speaker 5: In that game, we did use counters like the little 202 00:13:12,636 --> 00:13:15,236 Speaker 5: square you know wargame that this is a tank brigade, 203 00:13:15,236 --> 00:13:18,916 Speaker 5: this is an artillery battalion or whatever, with numbers on them. 204 00:13:19,436 --> 00:13:22,836 Speaker 1: Do you have one person playing each actor? 205 00:13:23,276 --> 00:13:25,356 Speaker 5: I think we had two separate teams, and we may 206 00:13:25,396 --> 00:13:29,036 Speaker 5: have run two different games, but we had the Army 207 00:13:29,076 --> 00:13:33,316 Speaker 5: colonels play the Blue Military Forces. 208 00:13:33,196 --> 00:13:36,836 Speaker 1: Blue team in wargames speak, is the home team the 209 00:13:36,916 --> 00:13:40,796 Speaker 1: United States and its allies. The colonels were playing themselves. 210 00:13:41,196 --> 00:13:45,796 Speaker 1: One of rand's top East Asia specialists, Mike Mazar, played 211 00:13:45,836 --> 00:13:49,556 Speaker 1: North Korea genteel, and some of his fellow RAND staffers 212 00:13:49,556 --> 00:13:55,276 Speaker 1: served as referees. In the first run, the US and 213 00:13:55,356 --> 00:13:59,556 Speaker 1: South Korean forces attacked across the demilitarized Zone, the border 214 00:13:59,636 --> 00:14:02,836 Speaker 1: that separates North and South Korea, maybe the most dangerous 215 00:14:02,876 --> 00:14:08,396 Speaker 1: border in the world. Land mines everywhere. The result was 216 00:14:08,476 --> 00:14:13,156 Speaker 1: catastrophe losses. In the next version of the game, the 217 00:14:13,276 --> 00:14:15,676 Speaker 1: US and South Korea imagine that they could broke or 218 00:14:15,676 --> 00:14:17,916 Speaker 1: a deal with a faction of the North Korean Army 219 00:14:18,076 --> 00:14:21,116 Speaker 1: to let them across, which got them to the other side. 220 00:14:21,396 --> 00:14:24,156 Speaker 1: But now they had an even bigger challenge. 221 00:14:24,436 --> 00:14:26,876 Speaker 5: I mean, it's freaking hard as hell. I mean, a 222 00:14:26,916 --> 00:14:31,676 Speaker 5: failed North Korean state with a nuclear weapons writ large. 223 00:14:32,076 --> 00:14:37,156 Speaker 5: You know, parts of a nuclear device, delivery systems, records, 224 00:14:37,196 --> 00:14:40,236 Speaker 5: documents of scientists, all those kinds of things to track 225 00:14:40,276 --> 00:14:43,116 Speaker 5: those down in the chaos of a North Korean state. 226 00:14:43,156 --> 00:14:43,916 Speaker 5: It was pretty clear. 227 00:14:44,036 --> 00:14:44,996 Speaker 4: What was your conclusion? 228 00:14:45,156 --> 00:14:46,396 Speaker 1: Was it possible? 229 00:14:47,156 --> 00:14:51,316 Speaker 5: Oh, yes, but it won't take weeks, it won't take months. 230 00:14:51,436 --> 00:14:52,796 Speaker 5: It's gonna take years. 231 00:14:54,156 --> 00:14:57,116 Speaker 1: In the game, it took thousands of soldiers to secure 232 00:14:57,516 --> 00:14:59,876 Speaker 1: even a single North Korean installation. 233 00:15:00,676 --> 00:15:03,956 Speaker 5: It took that long because you just you have to 234 00:15:03,956 --> 00:15:07,236 Speaker 5: secure the outside of it, which requires forces to do that. 235 00:15:07,636 --> 00:15:10,356 Speaker 5: Then you have to move inside of it. Potentially there 236 00:15:10,436 --> 00:15:13,556 Speaker 5: could be North Korean forces that still wanted to fight 237 00:15:13,636 --> 00:15:14,436 Speaker 5: to protect it. 238 00:15:14,916 --> 00:15:18,356 Speaker 1: How many sites do we think they have, oh. 239 00:15:18,236 --> 00:15:20,916 Speaker 5: More than one? And then let's not even take into 240 00:15:20,956 --> 00:15:25,756 Speaker 5: account the chemical weapons, potential biological weapons that North Korea has. 241 00:15:26,436 --> 00:15:31,076 Speaker 5: But we're talking scores and scores and scores of nuclear sites. 242 00:15:31,396 --> 00:15:34,676 Speaker 5: Remember from my Board of Trustees talk, I made the 243 00:15:34,716 --> 00:15:39,116 Speaker 5: point that core nuclear components to one of those nuclear warheads, 244 00:15:39,156 --> 00:15:40,956 Speaker 5: you could put it in the size of your backpack 245 00:15:42,076 --> 00:15:44,396 Speaker 5: and so then you could scurry it off on a 246 00:15:44,476 --> 00:15:46,956 Speaker 5: road with a civilian carrying it. So it just presents 247 00:15:46,996 --> 00:15:48,076 Speaker 5: all kinds of problems. 248 00:15:48,476 --> 00:15:50,436 Speaker 1: It is talked to the ran boat about the game. 249 00:15:50,836 --> 00:15:55,836 Speaker 1: Gentiel also spend a surprising amount of time on traffic jams. 250 00:15:56,316 --> 00:15:58,916 Speaker 1: Because armies aren't the only factor in a military crisis. 251 00:15:59,356 --> 00:16:03,236 Speaker 1: North Korean refugees would start streaming across the border. South 252 00:16:03,316 --> 00:16:06,676 Speaker 1: Koreans would start fleeing their capital, so the US and 253 00:16:06,756 --> 00:16:10,196 Speaker 1: Japanese governments would order the citizens to leave the country 254 00:16:10,436 --> 00:16:12,956 Speaker 1: at the same time as a huge army is trying 255 00:16:12,956 --> 00:16:16,236 Speaker 1: to head towards the border, which adds up to the 256 00:16:16,236 --> 00:16:19,836 Speaker 1: mother of all traffic jams. As I listened to Genteel 257 00:16:20,076 --> 00:16:24,596 Speaker 1: that day at RAND, I remember thinking traffic jams as 258 00:16:24,636 --> 00:16:28,156 Speaker 1: a factor in any war with North Korea. That had 259 00:16:28,156 --> 00:16:30,596 Speaker 1: not occurred to me, and I assumed that was because 260 00:16:30,596 --> 00:16:33,276 Speaker 1: I'm not a military expert. But then I looked around 261 00:16:33,276 --> 00:16:36,716 Speaker 1: the room at the people who were particularly Harold Brown, 262 00:16:37,116 --> 00:16:41,956 Speaker 1: the gray eminence of the American defense establishment, big Leonine Head, 263 00:16:42,436 --> 00:16:46,276 Speaker 1: thick black rimmed glasses, even in his nineties, the smartest 264 00:16:46,316 --> 00:16:49,396 Speaker 1: person in any room he walked into. He had a 265 00:16:49,436 --> 00:16:53,476 Speaker 1: look in his eyes, and I realized, Oh, traffic jams 266 00:16:53,996 --> 00:16:57,396 Speaker 1: had not occurred to him either. Now, what did the 267 00:16:57,396 --> 00:17:00,316 Speaker 1: wargame teach the army. They already knew it would be 268 00:17:00,316 --> 00:17:03,436 Speaker 1: hard to secure nuclear weapons in a failed North Korea. 269 00:17:04,236 --> 00:17:07,076 Speaker 1: The wargame just told them how hard it would be. 270 00:17:07,636 --> 00:17:10,796 Speaker 5: There's people on the road. If you're passing through the DMZ, 271 00:17:11,116 --> 00:17:15,556 Speaker 5: chemical weapons may have been used, so the military forces 272 00:17:16,036 --> 00:17:19,516 Speaker 5: have to put on protective gear to move through a 273 00:17:19,596 --> 00:17:21,196 Speaker 5: chemically contamidated area. 274 00:17:23,516 --> 00:17:26,156 Speaker 1: Everyone in the tanks has to be in full chemical 275 00:17:26,156 --> 00:17:30,396 Speaker 1: protection gear, body suit, mask, rubber gloves, boots, what the 276 00:17:30,476 --> 00:17:33,076 Speaker 1: US military calls MOP for protection. 277 00:17:36,436 --> 00:17:38,676 Speaker 5: Can you imagine what it's like trying to move through 278 00:17:38,676 --> 00:17:42,196 Speaker 5: this kind of terrain where a Bradley commander or a 279 00:17:42,236 --> 00:17:45,436 Speaker 5: tank commander is buttoned up and in MOP for and 280 00:17:45,476 --> 00:17:48,636 Speaker 5: can only look out through the little sites on the 281 00:17:48,636 --> 00:17:52,836 Speaker 5: top of the turret or even through the optics. And 282 00:17:52,876 --> 00:17:56,996 Speaker 5: then bring in the fact that potentially there's combat action 283 00:17:58,276 --> 00:18:04,116 Speaker 5: where US tanks, North Korean tanks, infantry are being destroyed, killed, 284 00:18:05,156 --> 00:18:10,716 Speaker 5: cries for help, blood, anger, all these kinds of thing things, 285 00:18:10,436 --> 00:18:14,316 Speaker 5: the anguish of seeing people on the road freezing to death, 286 00:18:14,436 --> 00:18:17,796 Speaker 5: can't do anything about it. And then there's just the 287 00:18:17,956 --> 00:18:22,396 Speaker 5: anger and the hatred, the desire for revenge, to kill, 288 00:18:23,316 --> 00:18:26,236 Speaker 5: And then you're trying to manage all of that and 289 00:18:26,316 --> 00:18:30,596 Speaker 5: still carry out the mission. It would be easy for 290 00:18:30,636 --> 00:18:34,116 Speaker 5: the North Koreans to build an atomic ied and to 291 00:18:34,196 --> 00:18:37,676 Speaker 5: plot that in a choke point going through a steep valley, 292 00:18:37,996 --> 00:18:40,596 Speaker 5: and to set that off. Then you have that, and 293 00:18:40,636 --> 00:18:44,836 Speaker 5: then the whole larger operational political context of now a 294 00:18:44,956 --> 00:18:47,756 Speaker 5: nuclear weapon has been used, what will be the US response? 295 00:18:47,836 --> 00:18:48,836 Speaker 5: All those kind of things. 296 00:18:57,116 --> 00:19:01,596 Speaker 1: The wargame added detail, color, emotion to the Army's understanding, 297 00:19:01,996 --> 00:19:04,676 Speaker 1: and the army ordered up the wargame because they knew 298 00:19:04,796 --> 00:19:07,756 Speaker 1: enough to know that many of those details would be 299 00:19:07,796 --> 00:19:09,676 Speaker 1: on the long list of things that had ever occurred 300 00:19:09,676 --> 00:19:13,156 Speaker 1: to them. These are the details that clear your mind 301 00:19:13,196 --> 00:19:17,676 Speaker 1: of wishful thinking, of comforting delusions, of the false reassurance 302 00:19:18,276 --> 00:19:19,276 Speaker 1: of overconfidence. 303 00:19:19,836 --> 00:19:23,476 Speaker 5: Sherman said, war's hell, and you cannot refine it. And 304 00:19:23,556 --> 00:19:26,436 Speaker 5: I've said this before. Look, I mean for the US Army, 305 00:19:26,516 --> 00:19:30,396 Speaker 5: US military, Iraq and Afghanistan was not easy, right, and 306 00:19:30,476 --> 00:19:33,036 Speaker 5: it was specially not easy for the populations of those 307 00:19:33,076 --> 00:19:35,476 Speaker 5: two countries. I mean devastating in a lot of ways. 308 00:19:36,436 --> 00:19:40,956 Speaker 5: But this kind of conflict war on the Korean Peninsula 309 00:19:41,396 --> 00:19:45,676 Speaker 5: would make what we did in Iraq and Afghanistan look very, 310 00:19:45,796 --> 00:19:47,916 Speaker 5: very simple in comparison. 311 00:19:48,836 --> 00:19:52,476 Speaker 1: A wargame is a reality check, And I think we're 312 00:19:52,516 --> 00:19:56,356 Speaker 1: willing to test our illusions with reality checks only if 313 00:19:56,396 --> 00:19:59,516 Speaker 1: we practice, if we make it a habit, if we 314 00:19:59,716 --> 00:20:03,756 Speaker 1: keep reminding ourselves that the world outside our imagination is 315 00:20:03,916 --> 00:20:08,196 Speaker 1: much larger than the world inside it. This is what 316 00:20:08,236 --> 00:20:10,716 Speaker 1: the leafreakers tod for all those years ago in my 317 00:20:10,796 --> 00:20:16,516 Speaker 1: family's backyard. They took a chance on an afternoon of 318 00:20:16,596 --> 00:20:19,396 Speaker 1: doing something that they had never done before and which 319 00:20:19,436 --> 00:20:22,476 Speaker 1: did not, at least in the abstract, sound like fun. 320 00:20:23,236 --> 00:20:27,116 Speaker 1: And then afterwards, a twenty something advanced math doctoral student 321 00:20:27,156 --> 00:20:30,276 Speaker 1: from Bangalore would sit down with another math whiz from 322 00:20:30,396 --> 00:20:33,596 Speaker 1: Legos and a third from the West Bank, and they 323 00:20:33,596 --> 00:20:37,596 Speaker 1: would play Charades on a team together. Charades is a 324 00:20:37,596 --> 00:20:41,796 Speaker 1: game that depends on shared cultural understanding, but here it 325 00:20:41,876 --> 00:20:45,796 Speaker 1: was being played by three people with no shared cultural understanding, 326 00:20:46,156 --> 00:20:49,556 Speaker 1: which is what made it fun. The experience of figuring 327 00:20:49,596 --> 00:20:52,556 Speaker 1: it out, of learning what figuring it out felt like, 328 00:20:53,236 --> 00:20:56,796 Speaker 1: was so intoxicatingly unpredictable that they would all come back 329 00:20:56,876 --> 00:20:59,716 Speaker 1: the next year and the year after that, even after 330 00:20:59,716 --> 00:21:03,836 Speaker 1: they had gotten their PhDs and moved far away, only 331 00:21:03,876 --> 00:21:07,836 Speaker 1: to discover when they returned, of course, that Charades had 332 00:21:07,876 --> 00:21:11,436 Speaker 1: been replaced by some brand new and fiendishly impossible game 333 00:21:11,476 --> 00:21:15,396 Speaker 1: of my father's invention. All the leaf breakers knew is 334 00:21:15,436 --> 00:21:18,076 Speaker 1: that they wouldn't know what would happen after the leaves 335 00:21:18,076 --> 00:21:33,036 Speaker 1: were raked, and that was enough one final wargame, one 336 00:21:33,076 --> 00:21:38,076 Speaker 1: that I still can't stop thinking about, designed by Uniwong Okay. 337 00:21:38,676 --> 00:21:41,516 Speaker 2: So the wargame began with sort of China trying to 338 00:21:41,556 --> 00:21:45,156 Speaker 2: exert creater control and signal that they were in control 339 00:21:45,196 --> 00:21:47,396 Speaker 2: of the region and more dominant now in the region, 340 00:21:47,436 --> 00:21:49,956 Speaker 2: and the United States and Japan were really resisting that. 341 00:21:50,636 --> 00:21:53,996 Speaker 1: Yuniwog's scenario was set in the future at a time 342 00:21:54,036 --> 00:21:57,436 Speaker 1: when the world's major militaries have gone all in on 343 00:21:57,596 --> 00:21:58,756 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence. 344 00:21:58,996 --> 00:22:03,196 Speaker 2: There was this premise that AI is going to fundamentally 345 00:22:03,276 --> 00:22:06,276 Speaker 2: change warfare. I propose the idea because I was like, well, 346 00:22:06,676 --> 00:22:08,596 Speaker 2: what happens if all your dreams come true? 347 00:22:08,636 --> 00:22:08,716 Speaker 3: Right? 348 00:22:08,756 --> 00:22:10,676 Speaker 2: There's a lot of work asking whether or not the 349 00:22:10,716 --> 00:22:15,196 Speaker 2: Pentagon can really integrate AI in the way they hoped to, 350 00:22:15,516 --> 00:22:18,036 Speaker 2: But I'm like, well, what if you got everything you wanted. 351 00:22:18,516 --> 00:22:21,556 Speaker 1: The game was held in a conference room at rand's Washington, 352 00:22:21,636 --> 00:22:26,196 Speaker 1: DC office. Someone playing China, another person playing Japan, the 353 00:22:26,316 --> 00:22:31,716 Speaker 1: US North Korea. A senior information scientist from rand's California office, 354 00:22:31,996 --> 00:22:35,756 Speaker 1: a Shandi Shaba, flew in to represent the commercial AI sector. 355 00:22:36,516 --> 00:22:39,956 Speaker 1: Yuniwang was part of what's called white team, part referee, 356 00:22:40,356 --> 00:22:45,516 Speaker 1: part instigator, The road to war was deceptively simple, lots 357 00:22:45,516 --> 00:22:48,796 Speaker 1: of muscle flexing between the US and China, leading to 358 00:22:48,876 --> 00:22:52,156 Speaker 1: Japan and the United States launching a cyber attack on 359 00:22:52,196 --> 00:22:56,636 Speaker 1: a Chinese aircraft carrier. The Chinese responded with a flyby 360 00:22:56,836 --> 00:23:00,076 Speaker 1: near US vessels, and with that the game was off 361 00:23:00,076 --> 00:23:00,516 Speaker 1: and running. 362 00:23:04,796 --> 00:23:07,276 Speaker 2: The U and I States in Japan then went off 363 00:23:07,316 --> 00:23:09,756 Speaker 2: and then consulted with each other and came back announced 364 00:23:09,796 --> 00:23:13,236 Speaker 2: they were holding a large joint military exercise around the 365 00:23:13,276 --> 00:23:14,356 Speaker 2: Sankaku Islands. 366 00:23:14,876 --> 00:23:18,236 Speaker 1: The US and Japan put their missile defense on full auto, 367 00:23:18,836 --> 00:23:23,116 Speaker 1: meaning they programmed the artificial intelligence systems running the missiles 368 00:23:23,476 --> 00:23:28,596 Speaker 1: to respond automatically and immediately to any hostile act. They 369 00:23:28,596 --> 00:23:31,436 Speaker 1: did that to send a message to China, don't do 370 00:23:31,676 --> 00:23:36,476 Speaker 1: anything rash. But then out of the blue, North Korea 371 00:23:36,516 --> 00:23:39,236 Speaker 1: decided to join in by firing off a missile on 372 00:23:39,276 --> 00:23:50,836 Speaker 1: its own, aimed at a major Japanese city. Luckily, the 373 00:23:50,876 --> 00:23:54,516 Speaker 1: missile was intercepted before it could do any damage. What 374 00:23:54,556 --> 00:23:57,356 Speaker 1: are they doing, They're signaling that they're standing with China. 375 00:23:58,596 --> 00:24:02,556 Speaker 2: Yes, so sometimes I say China has one ally and 376 00:24:02,596 --> 00:24:04,876 Speaker 2: it's the worst ally in the world, and it's North Korea. 377 00:24:05,356 --> 00:24:07,756 Speaker 2: So that is a very complicated relationship. But in the game, 378 00:24:07,796 --> 00:24:10,996 Speaker 2: they did not pressure them. This was just North Korea 379 00:24:11,036 --> 00:24:13,196 Speaker 2: decided they would try to be helpful and this was 380 00:24:13,196 --> 00:24:13,596 Speaker 2: the result. 381 00:24:14,076 --> 00:24:17,836 Speaker 1: But remember in this wargame scenario, the US and Japan 382 00:24:18,116 --> 00:24:22,156 Speaker 1: had their defense systems on full auto, programmed to respond 383 00:24:22,476 --> 00:24:27,076 Speaker 1: automatically and immediately to any provocation. Did the US and 384 00:24:27,196 --> 00:24:30,156 Speaker 1: China in the game. It just never occurred to them 385 00:24:30,396 --> 00:24:32,516 Speaker 1: that if North Korea weighed in and they were on 386 00:24:32,596 --> 00:24:35,436 Speaker 1: full auto, we might end up dragging North Korea into 387 00:24:35,476 --> 00:24:36,036 Speaker 1: the conflict. 388 00:24:36,396 --> 00:24:39,316 Speaker 2: Correct, it was the focus was on signaling to China 389 00:24:39,396 --> 00:24:42,676 Speaker 2: and nobody thought about potential North Korean behavior. 390 00:24:42,876 --> 00:24:46,156 Speaker 1: So North Korea does this thing, the AI fires back 391 00:24:46,156 --> 00:24:46,876 Speaker 1: at North Korea. 392 00:24:46,996 --> 00:24:47,196 Speaker 6: Yes. 393 00:24:47,316 --> 00:24:52,036 Speaker 2: China then responded with a limited blockade of Japan. So 394 00:24:52,076 --> 00:24:56,196 Speaker 2: they announced the blockade, and the AI sent a single 395 00:24:56,276 --> 00:24:59,836 Speaker 2: destroyer to a single Japanese port to enforce this blockade. 396 00:24:59,956 --> 00:25:03,836 Speaker 2: This is where the plays for South Korea and Japan said, well, 397 00:25:03,956 --> 00:25:06,196 Speaker 2: that was a failure. But the United States team was 398 00:25:06,236 --> 00:25:09,356 Speaker 2: really extremely confused and said, wait, we like, I don't 399 00:25:09,436 --> 00:25:11,196 Speaker 2: understand what's going on here. I don't understand what the 400 00:25:11,276 --> 00:25:12,036 Speaker 2: AI is doing. 401 00:25:12,636 --> 00:25:15,156 Speaker 1: God knows what the North Koreans will do next. The 402 00:25:15,276 --> 00:25:17,876 Speaker 1: US is running around trying to figure out what the 403 00:25:17,996 --> 00:25:22,236 Speaker 1: Chinese artificial intelligence systems are up to. Japan is under 404 00:25:22,276 --> 00:25:25,876 Speaker 1: a partial blockade. Oh and there's a cargo ship at 405 00:25:25,916 --> 00:25:28,676 Speaker 1: the bottom of the sea. The Chinese blew you up right. 406 00:25:29,196 --> 00:25:31,276 Speaker 6: The Chinese blow yet because they were trying to enforce 407 00:25:31,316 --> 00:25:33,236 Speaker 6: a blockade on Japan. 408 00:25:33,276 --> 00:25:37,596 Speaker 1: I believe that's RAND specialist Ashandi Shaba who flew into 409 00:25:37,596 --> 00:25:41,436 Speaker 1: play the role of a commercial AI system running container shipping. 410 00:25:41,636 --> 00:25:45,876 Speaker 1: So you just kept sailing into port. You didn't stop 411 00:25:45,916 --> 00:25:46,556 Speaker 1: and turn away. 412 00:25:47,156 --> 00:25:49,756 Speaker 6: No, no, I was trying to keep my market open, 413 00:25:49,916 --> 00:25:52,516 Speaker 6: like serve everybody as much as possible. That that was 414 00:25:52,556 --> 00:25:55,476 Speaker 6: the idea there, and I figured by being compliant, I 415 00:25:55,516 --> 00:25:57,556 Speaker 6: could I could keep both sides happy. 416 00:25:57,716 --> 00:25:59,836 Speaker 1: Every one of these wargames that people talked to me about, 417 00:26:00,556 --> 00:26:01,956 Speaker 1: it's always a mess. 418 00:26:02,316 --> 00:26:05,596 Speaker 6: The artists are strategic insight from the mess, and some 419 00:26:05,596 --> 00:26:08,716 Speaker 6: people doing better than others. It's always a mess. Everything 420 00:26:08,796 --> 00:26:09,116 Speaker 6: is a mess. 421 00:26:10,876 --> 00:26:13,236 Speaker 1: At the end. The RAND team put out a report 422 00:26:13,276 --> 00:26:17,476 Speaker 1: on the game with the following lesson In conclusion, current 423 00:26:17,556 --> 00:26:20,876 Speaker 1: planning efforts have not kept pace with how to handle 424 00:26:20,876 --> 00:26:27,076 Speaker 1: the potentially destabilizing or escalatory issues associated with these new technologies. 425 00:26:28,076 --> 00:26:33,796 Speaker 1: End quote. The wargame said, don't fool yourself. There's going 426 00:26:33,836 --> 00:26:37,876 Speaker 1: to be chaos, but with luck we can learn from 427 00:26:37,876 --> 00:26:44,196 Speaker 1: the chaos. When you made your remark about how everything's 428 00:26:44,236 --> 00:26:47,516 Speaker 1: a mess and yet we continue on, that's like the 429 00:26:47,516 --> 00:26:49,836 Speaker 1: most Nigerian thing you could possibly. 430 00:26:50,516 --> 00:26:52,476 Speaker 6: I grew up in the heart of chaos. Legos is 431 00:26:52,996 --> 00:26:54,836 Speaker 6: the most chaotic place on Earth. 432 00:26:55,716 --> 00:26:58,516 Speaker 1: I was going to say, you were well prepared for this. 433 00:27:00,876 --> 00:27:03,836 Speaker 6: I have Legos to thank for lots of things that 434 00:27:04,196 --> 00:27:05,116 Speaker 6: I've done in my life. 435 00:27:05,116 --> 00:27:12,676 Speaker 1: Basically one moment from Uniwong's wargame, several days in the 436 00:27:12,756 --> 00:27:15,596 Speaker 1: United States and Japan began hunting the Sea of Japan 437 00:27:15,796 --> 00:27:19,596 Speaker 1: for Chinese submarines to figure out which ports the Chinese 438 00:27:19,716 --> 00:27:23,636 Speaker 1: were planning to blockade next. Emotions were running high. 439 00:27:23,996 --> 00:27:27,636 Speaker 2: The player for China said he couldn't tell whether the 440 00:27:28,556 --> 00:27:33,316 Speaker 2: US and Japanese anti submarine warfare assets were looking for 441 00:27:33,356 --> 00:27:36,756 Speaker 2: his submarines to just track them or destroy them, so 442 00:27:36,796 --> 00:27:41,596 Speaker 2: he ordered a submarine to destroy an autonomous anti submarine 443 00:27:41,636 --> 00:27:46,956 Speaker 2: warfare plane, and then player for Japan felt that they 444 00:27:46,956 --> 00:27:49,676 Speaker 2: had shown restraints so far, but they could no longer 445 00:27:49,756 --> 00:27:52,516 Speaker 2: show restraint if the player for China was going to 446 00:27:52,556 --> 00:27:56,356 Speaker 2: take kinetic action. So the United States in Japan at 447 00:27:56,356 --> 00:28:01,516 Speaker 2: this point respond and they sink a manned Chinese submarine. 448 00:28:01,556 --> 00:28:04,436 Speaker 2: So these are the first human casualties of the game. 449 00:28:04,796 --> 00:28:08,996 Speaker 2: And at this point it escalates significantly. So the players 450 00:28:08,996 --> 00:28:10,716 Speaker 2: were Japan and the United States go off to a 451 00:28:10,756 --> 00:28:13,396 Speaker 2: separate room, and then they're trying to figure out a 452 00:28:13,396 --> 00:28:16,156 Speaker 2: way of offering the Chinese off ramps right like they 453 00:28:16,236 --> 00:28:19,156 Speaker 2: seriously wanted to de escalate at this point. The player 454 00:28:19,156 --> 00:28:21,996 Speaker 2: for China at this point says, no, they got one 455 00:28:22,036 --> 00:28:25,516 Speaker 2: of mine. I'm gonna get one of theirs and launch 456 00:28:25,596 --> 00:28:28,716 Speaker 2: his missiles at the combined US and Japanese fleet, and 457 00:28:28,756 --> 00:28:31,596 Speaker 2: we end the game there. But we believe that there 458 00:28:31,596 --> 00:28:35,476 Speaker 2: would have been human casualties aboard the US and Japanese fleet. 459 00:28:35,676 --> 00:28:38,876 Speaker 1: Wait, why do you guys call the game just at 460 00:28:38,916 --> 00:28:42,996 Speaker 1: the moment when China is launching missiles at the US 461 00:28:43,036 --> 00:28:46,276 Speaker 1: and Japanese fleet. Isn't that It's like stopping the movie 462 00:28:46,316 --> 00:28:48,196 Speaker 1: with ten minutes left. Don't you want to know what 463 00:28:48,276 --> 00:28:49,916 Speaker 1: happens after that point? 464 00:28:51,276 --> 00:28:54,756 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, some of it was we ran out 465 00:28:54,796 --> 00:28:57,396 Speaker 2: of time. We only had the conference room for a week, right, 466 00:28:57,436 --> 00:28:59,196 Speaker 2: and we only had people in town for a week, 467 00:28:59,676 --> 00:29:02,116 Speaker 2: So that is sometimes the unfortunate nature of these things. 468 00:29:04,036 --> 00:29:06,716 Speaker 1: It was only a game, after all, not real life. 469 00:29:07,356 --> 00:29:11,316 Speaker 1: People had to leave Narnia and go home, and the 470 00:29:11,316 --> 00:29:14,796 Speaker 1: game of Dennet's work hadn't it raised a possibility that 471 00:29:14,956 --> 00:29:18,796 Speaker 1: might not have occurred to anyone otherwise, a warning that 472 00:29:18,876 --> 00:29:22,756 Speaker 1: might come in handy one day, or who knows, maybe 473 00:29:22,756 --> 00:29:31,276 Speaker 1: already has Yuna. You would have loved the Leafreaking Party. 474 00:29:36,596 --> 00:29:40,156 Speaker 1: Revision's history is produced by me LaBelle, Lee men Giestou 475 00:29:40,276 --> 00:29:44,796 Speaker 1: and Jacob Smith, with Elouise Linton and on a naim Our. 476 00:29:44,956 --> 00:29:49,236 Speaker 1: Editor is Julia Barton. Original scoring by Luis Guerra, mastering 477 00:29:49,236 --> 00:29:54,396 Speaker 1: by Flonon Williams and engineering by Martin Gonzalez. Fact checking 478 00:29:54,436 --> 00:29:57,476 Speaker 1: by Amy Gaines, and special thanks to the Pushkin Crew. 479 00:29:57,876 --> 00:30:03,156 Speaker 1: Had a Fame Carl Migliori, Maya Knig, Danielle Lacan, Maggie Taylor, 480 00:30:03,356 --> 00:30:09,036 Speaker 1: Eric Sandler, Nicol Morano, Jason Gambrel and of course Jacob Westberg. 481 00:30:10,236 --> 00:30:28,756 Speaker 1: I'm Malcolm Gladmow. Don't forget my latest book, The Bomber Mafia, 482 00:30:29,076 --> 00:30:32,196 Speaker 1: which is an expansion of several episodes, from the last 483 00:30:32,196 --> 00:30:35,356 Speaker 1: season of Revisionist History. You can find it wherever books 484 00:30:35,356 --> 00:30:39,956 Speaker 1: are sold, but by the audiobook at Bombermafia dot com 485 00:30:39,996 --> 00:30:42,396 Speaker 1: and you'll get a bonus listener's guide, and you can 486 00:30:42,436 --> 00:30:44,796 Speaker 1: listen in the podcast app you're using now