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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Schad Milne of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday, Week nine episode where we break down the

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Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exact

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Speaker 1: decision our Simon says, and we will start to narrow

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Speaker 1: down the options for our fave fives to put into

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Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick

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Speaker 1: Them contest. We went three and two this week. We

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Speaker 1: had a strong three to zero start to the day.

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Speaker 1: In the early games, we had a heartbreaking mush mess

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Speaker 1: of a loss with the Bears that a lot of listeners,

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Speaker 1: a lot of viewers got to experience live on Sunday

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Speaker 1: night as the bet and the Bears melted down before

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Speaker 1: my eyes. If you want to see someone almost stroking

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Speaker 1: out in real time on air, feel free to find

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Speaker 1: that clip which has been played numerous times of me

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Speaker 1: watching this game live while we lost the bet after

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Speaker 1: I mistakenly said we're four and oher when the Bears

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Speaker 1: had twenty three seconds left to screw it up. But

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Speaker 1: also had a Cowboys loss that I did not witness

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Speaker 1: because I drunk myself with all sorts of cough medicine

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Speaker 1: and went to bed. Here we are live from our

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Speaker 1: Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always, buy my COEs,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre my professional better sigmon Hu,

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Speaker 1: Hello s I'm in Hello chat.

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Speaker 2: It is a new week. You sound better, you look better.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you're feeling a little better than you were someday.

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Speaker 1: No joke, Brother, I until fifteen minutes ago, was hacking

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Speaker 1: up along. Got even know why I'm not right now.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to look into it. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: try to understand it. I'm just going to appreciate the

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Speaker 1: fact that I'm able to be on the air right

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Speaker 1: now without losing it for this second straight show. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe underdogs of at least seven this year, Simon are

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Speaker 1: nine and eleven straight up most upset wins since two

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Speaker 1: thousand and eight this past week. That included the Browns

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Speaker 1: and the Pats. We've got four of those games this week,

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Speaker 1: all of which we will review. We did have a

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Speaker 1: bit of a return to normalcy this week. Road favorites

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Speaker 1: were well below five hundred after a three week stretch

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Speaker 1: of dominance. Road teams overall performed poorly, but the public

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Speaker 1: did win again This week. They went nine and six

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Speaker 1: against this bread Miami Arizona was a complete fifty to

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Speaker 1: fifty split. Crazy right. I will tell you, the conversation

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Speaker 1: about the Bears in my small, tiny corner of the

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Speaker 1: world has gone from what we wisnessed Sunday night to

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Speaker 1: text chain's galore. Last night, it was my younger son's

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Speaker 1: eighteenth birthday. We went to dinner, me, him and my wife,

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Speaker 1: our older son, you know, is in Phillya College, and

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Speaker 1: half of the conversation was about the Bears, the Hail Mary.

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Speaker 1: The other half, for some reason, was about whether or

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Speaker 1: not Anthony Rizzo deserved a statue at Wrigley Field because

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Speaker 1: he's so popular and the Bears and the Cubs won

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Speaker 1: a World Series with him. I'm like, dude, two sixty

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Speaker 1: hitters aren't getting statues because they win a World Series.

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Speaker 1: But it's you know, it's the exuberance of youth the Bears,

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Speaker 1: dudet you collect all of the coaching mishaps in that game,

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Speaker 1: the poor discipline handing the ball to a backup offensive lineman,

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Speaker 1: the way they manage that Hail Mary. Letting them get

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Speaker 1: that thirteen yards to get even closer, like unwrapping it,

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Speaker 1: It just makes it even worse, simon it really you.

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Speaker 2: Got to sing the song, Chad, let it go, Let

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Speaker 2: it go. You gotta move on. You guys are a

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Speaker 2: one point favorite this week. They got to move on.

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Speaker 2: It's a new week.

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Speaker 1: Are we or are we not? That is the question.

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Speaker 1: In a moment, we'll recap with results the results of

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Speaker 1: week eight and our contest announce the winner of our

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Speaker 1: big weekly cash prize. If you haven't yet, be sure

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Speaker 1: to sign up for the Free Favorites podcast one hundred

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by Bett three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Just visit Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. We

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Speaker 1: are still giving away weekly cash prizes as a reminder,

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Speaker 1: The Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three six five

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Speaker 1: and now new Bet three six five. Customers get two

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Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars a

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At bet three six five. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older. In president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, we're eighteen and older.

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Speaker 1: In Kentucky, gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms condition and

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Congratulations to week eight first place winner Jay

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Speaker 1: Houston GT. Jay Houston went five to zero and missed

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Speaker 1: Monday night football tiebreaker by four, so he takes home

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Speaker 1: our weekly one thousand dollars cash prize. Well done. As always,

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, our producer, has selected his Producer's Cup award

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Speaker 1: to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

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Speaker 1: Have you about the loads and loser? He's a louise

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Speaker 1: about he still kids on try. This week's producer Cup

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Speaker 1: goes to why not Us, who went on to five

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Speaker 1: and missed the tiebreaker by two hundred and nineteen yards.

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Speaker 2: Why not Us?

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Speaker 1: Please email our producer at podcasts at Actionnetwork dot Com

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Speaker 1: to claim your prize. Time go to go to week nine, Simon.

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Speaker 1: Despite the way I sound, I feel really really good.

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Speaker 1: First game up Thursday night. You were all over the

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Speaker 1: Rams last week. You loved the Rams. You loved it

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Speaker 1: so much you had to talk about it on Thursday.

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Speaker 1: It was one of your biggest bets of the week.

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Speaker 1: Houston is visiting the New York Jets. The Jets are

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Speaker 1: now two point favorites.

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Speaker 2: Crazy.

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Speaker 1: They were one point favorites on Sunday night. Your line

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Speaker 1: was this is fishy and that you were going to

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Speaker 1: take the Texans. What in God's name is moving this

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Speaker 1: number right now? You look at the data, all the tickets,

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Speaker 1: all the money on the Texans. Is this like a

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Speaker 1: small group just taking a stand that the Texans have

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Speaker 1: been underperforming and getting lucky and the Jets are good

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Speaker 1: but have just been bad so they have to get better.

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Speaker 1: Why is this line going up?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I think it's a lot of stuff too. Where

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Speaker 2: they we're professionals. They like home teams on Thursday from

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Speaker 2: the get go right because there's no travel in a

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Speaker 2: short week, especially where you know, say which one about

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Speaker 2: the Colts. That Houston game was pretty hard hitting and

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Speaker 2: now it's a short week, we have to travel. We

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Speaker 2: saw it the week before right with the Vikings playing Detroit.

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Speaker 2: It's tough, and you play those grueling divisional games that

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Speaker 2: are close to the end, and then you have to

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Speaker 2: travel in three days to go play a football game.

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Speaker 2: It is pretty crazy. So I'm not gonna be it.

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Speaker 2: To me, it's just the books are trying to scare

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Speaker 2: us off chat. That's what it feels like to me.

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Speaker 2: They're trying to show that there's professional movement here, that

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Speaker 2: professional money's coming in pretty heavy on this Jets team.

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Speaker 2: You could say that every week for the last three weeks,

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Speaker 2: professional money is coming on this Jets team. I mean

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Speaker 2: they've just been betting them and me and you joked

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Speaker 2: about it five weeks ago and it holds true today.

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Speaker 2: What would the Jets be if they just got a

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Speaker 2: different kicker like they'd They've made all these crazy moves

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, doesn't it really just come

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Speaker 2: down to this kicker? I mean, it is football. It's

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Speaker 2: such a simple game, and these teams trying to make

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Speaker 2: it so complicated they need to do all these different

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Speaker 2: things where it's like you're losing these games to the

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Speaker 2: special teams so great, keep moving the number. I'll be

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Speaker 2: the public sucker here with everyone else. I mean, Thursdays

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Speaker 2: have been really good to me this year. I think

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Speaker 2: I'm six and two this year on Thursdays. And you know,

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Speaker 2: usually if this was a Sunday game, I could be

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Speaker 2: talking to the Jets because this is such a pros

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Speaker 2: Verse shows game. But on Thursday, men you talked about

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Speaker 2: we throw that out the window. It's the public wins

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Speaker 2: on Thursdays. It's the truth. So like last week, people

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Speaker 2: are like, oh, you just fading the vikings because it's

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Speaker 2: the public, and it was like, no, you're getting a

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Speaker 2: really good number on a team that's getting healthy. This

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Speaker 2: is not that same spot. And I know Houston's had

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Speaker 2: injuries here, but at what point does a number catch

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Speaker 2: up to that? So we talked Houston's a different team

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Speaker 2: with Joe Mixon in the backfield, and this is a

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Speaker 2: Joe mixing game. Now, he got a little banged up

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Speaker 2: the into the game last week, so I have to

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Speaker 2: look more into that. But as we sit here right now,

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Speaker 2: I have made a bet on this one. I'm gonna

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Speaker 2: bet Houston, though I'm hoping against a two and a

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Speaker 2: half because people know how. I just think that's such

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Speaker 2: a key number. And yeah, this is a bizarre game.

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Speaker 2: I'm actually excited for this game because this number is

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Speaker 2: so bizarre. The movement of this line is so bizarre.

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Speaker 2: But we just talked about like there's there's a professional

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Speaker 2: there's multiple professional groups who just have been betting this

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Speaker 2: Jets team and they're getting caught. And I was one

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Speaker 2: of them. Last week. I had the Jets and a

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Speaker 2: bunch of different teasers. I thought there was no way

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Speaker 2: they dropped that game to the Patriots. And it took

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Speaker 2: a miracle, but they dropped that game. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm in on Houston here, but I'll just wait

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Speaker 2: to get a better number.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting with these Thursday night games that what

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Speaker 1: you would classify as the better team has been winning

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Speaker 1: the games because when you have less prep, the players

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Speaker 1: who are better are the ones that you technically want

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Speaker 1: to back. And last week.

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Speaker 2: We talk about coaching mismatch here, right, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, and that's also a big part of it.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, last.

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Speaker 1: Week was an anomalye with the Vikings and the Rams.

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Speaker 1: You would think that the Rams were the team that

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Speaker 1: was not necessarily the better team. But they got Pukaakua

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Speaker 1: and Cooper cut Back and that championship calculus on that

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Speaker 1: team immediately. And then you've got the better quarterback in

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Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford and a really good coach in McVeigh. There's

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Speaker 1: no one who believes in the Jets coaching staff. Even

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Speaker 1: the Jets don't believe in the Jets coaching staff. So

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Speaker 1: it's a fascinating game. And like you know, there are

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Speaker 1: certain teams and wise guys get stubborn, professionals get stubborn.

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Speaker 1: I know what the model says, I know what the

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Speaker 1: number says. It can't keep going as bad as it is,

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Speaker 1: and yet it's going as bad as it as it is,

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Speaker 1: So I don't mind it. I'm with you. I haven't

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Speaker 1: bet it yet. I'm probably gonna wait until the game time,

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Speaker 1: like I did with the Rams last week.

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Speaker 2: But you're the same thing as me, though, we're just

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Speaker 2: it's such a fishy line. We don't want touch it

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Speaker 2: because we don't understand what's happening.

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Speaker 1: So I haven't I haven't heard enough. Yeah, Denver at Baltimore.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is now a nine point favorite. Crazy This opened

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Speaker 1: at eight and a half on Sunday, went to nine,

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Speaker 1: back down Tate and a half back to nine. It

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Speaker 1: was pretty evenly split between tickets and money in the

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Speaker 1: early going. Now slightly more tickets on the Ravens a bit,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, slightly more tickets on and money on the

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Speaker 1: Broncos then on the Ravens. Look, the Broncos rushing offense

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Speaker 1: is terrible. They will not be able to run on

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Speaker 1: the Ravens, which have the top ranked rushing d I

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Speaker 1: think that's actually an advantage for the Broncos' you're laughing

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Speaker 1: at me, but let me explain. They like to let

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Speaker 1: it loose. Sean Payton has not treated bo Nicks like

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Speaker 1: a rookie at all. He's basically said to him, figure

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Speaker 1: it the fuck out, dude, like you're throwing deep. We're

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Speaker 1: doing trick plays. I'm not limiting the playbook. And that Ravens'

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Speaker 1: secondary is just out of sorts. You know. Ross Talker,

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Speaker 1: our good friend Ross Talker talked about this in the

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Speaker 1: broadcast last week. They have so many drives and so

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Speaker 1: many plays where they look confused and they don't know

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Speaker 1: what they're doing as the ball is snapped. And he's

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Speaker 1: like it shows up on film every single week and

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Speaker 1: the fact they are giving up the most points in

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Speaker 1: the NFL in the second half. Nine is just a

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Speaker 1: big number for a Broncos team that has proven this

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Speaker 1: year they're going to keep playing, keep going, take every

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Speaker 1: rep as a as a possibility for the future of

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Speaker 1: Bonnick's being better. Even in this Panthers game, they kept

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Speaker 1: throwing the ball so kind of lean Broncos here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think Humphreys is supposed to be out,

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Speaker 2: and so's Nate Wiggins, which, you know, as much as

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Speaker 2: we want to bash this Ravens secondary, those two guys

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Speaker 2: have been really good this year. They've just faced really

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Speaker 2: tough competition. And we saw last week with Jamis you know,

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Speaker 2: he almost almost got to the end there that Kyle

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Speaker 2: Hamilton should have should have picked it. But overall in

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Speaker 2: that whole game, he was great and there was open

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Speaker 2: receivers streaking down the field. And you know, not only

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Speaker 2: did the injuries catch up to the Ravens there, we talked,

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Speaker 2: I just don't trust their coaches to make adjustments. And

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Speaker 2: what happened that second half they got blown out Like

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Speaker 2: the first half they played so well, and then the

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Speaker 2: adjustments were made by Cleveland. There was no counter by

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Speaker 2: the Ravens, And that's been my whole take. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you keep talking every week about the Ravens have given

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Speaker 2: up the most second half points in the league, right,

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Speaker 2: I feel like we've talked about that where oh yeah, totally,

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Speaker 2: they've struggled.

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Speaker 1: I I just said it, how do we not.

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Speaker 2: Take the Broncos here? So this is another game where

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Speaker 2: I need to look more into it because I don't

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Speaker 2: get this line. I make this line seven. It's always

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Speaker 2: past the key number of seven and a half, eight and

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Speaker 2: a half up to nine. Now it's I'll take it

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Speaker 2: like I'm gonna take this number. And just because I

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Speaker 2: get the Ravens are gonna bounce back here, I understand

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Speaker 2: they'll be able to move the ball, and you know

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Speaker 2: we're betting on bone knicks on the road in this position.

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Speaker 2: But Jadd just said it like this kid isn't treated

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Speaker 2: like a rookie, and I'm trying not to treat him

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Speaker 2: as one. We've seen him. I mean, they had that

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Speaker 2: run there, they went to Tampa, they won on the road,

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Speaker 2: and I think they went up to New York. I

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Speaker 2: know it was a fluky because the Jets again miss

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Speaker 2: field goals, but they kept that game close and won

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Speaker 2: that game, like this is a team that's not has

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Speaker 2: not been scared, especially with bon Knicks go on the

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Speaker 2: road and win these games. And as dominant the Ravens

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Speaker 2: have been offensively, you know Denver's defense, no just walk over,

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Speaker 2: their defense actually played me. Yes, I agree, and I

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Speaker 2: just think this is way too much, way too much

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Speaker 2: number not to take a plus nine. I wanted to

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Speaker 2: avoid this game just because we are so due for

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Speaker 2: a Ravens just to roll a team by thirty points

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Speaker 2: and Denver to play bad right, I mean, they're literally

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Speaker 2: half a game away from hitting their win total. We're

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Speaker 2: not even at the midway point. Like this is a

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Speaker 2: team that has overachieved so much, and we have a

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Speaker 2: team in the Ravens that are a veteran team coming

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Speaker 2: off a brutal divisional loss. This is usually where they

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Speaker 2: kill a team like this, especially with the rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 2: So yes, just being weary, not guaranteed to be one

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Speaker 2: of our five. But man am I I mean I'm

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Speaker 2: betting this right now, like literally bet it before it

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Speaker 2: came on the air. A couple books are back up

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Speaker 2: to nine. I'm gonna bet it again just because it's

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Speaker 2: crossed that key number again. So very interesting to see

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Speaker 2: what the pros have to say about this one, because

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Speaker 2: right now I love it. But there must be something

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Speaker 2: I'm missing here just because this number is so high.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, you nailed it on the adjustments and that

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Speaker 1: is something that Sean Paate and excels at. Right Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's one of the best coaches in the NFL in

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Speaker 1: twenty years at making adjustments at halftime to improve his

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Speaker 1: team's chances to win in the second half. And if

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Speaker 1: we're talking about the Broncos defense, is it is a

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Speaker 1: legit top five defense, right They're front four. They have

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Speaker 1: the best passing defense in the league in passing efficiency,

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Speaker 1: they're third in pressure rate. No one really stops Lamar.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind backing Denver on the promise of a

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Speaker 1: big second half from bow Knicks. Jamis like tore that

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Speaker 1: defense apart in the second half when he threw his

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Speaker 1: touchdown pass to win the game. It was the twenty

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Speaker 1: first completion of twenty five or more yards given up

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Speaker 1: by Baltimore, which leads the NFL. So I do not

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Speaker 1: worry about backing Denver here right now? Yeah, right now,

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas Cincinnati, this is a game that we talked

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Speaker 1: about on Sunday night a little bit. Yeah, it opened

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Speaker 1: at seven and a half, got up to eight and

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Speaker 1: a half while we were recording. Actually it got up

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Speaker 1: to eight and a half and then dropped back down

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Speaker 1: almost to the minute when we were discussing that the

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Speaker 1: Raiders were our early lean. I read this week that

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Speaker 1: Desmond Ritter may get some snaps, some snaps because Gardner Minshew,

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Speaker 1: who we love, cannot hold on to the ball. Another

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Speaker 1: costly turnover against the Chiefs which almost cost us our cover.

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Speaker 1: They have the most turnovers in the league, the most

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Speaker 1: fumbles in the league, the second most I in T's

322
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Speaker 1: they could win the turnover triple Crown simon. So this

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Speaker 1: makes it a very hard to bet on them in

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Speaker 1: a non spot situation. Right, we did last week against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, and the Bengals are free falling, But like,

326
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Speaker 1: what's the status with t Higgins? To me, that's the

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Speaker 1: difference between maybe this is a play and maybe this

328
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Speaker 1: isn't to play at all.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, But honestly, though, if that doesn't ridder news is true,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch this game. I'll probably end up having

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Speaker 2: a little just thrown on the money. Line of Vegas here,

332
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Speaker 2: just because this Bengals team. I mean, let's be honest,

333
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Speaker 2: like even talking about last week, you know, who are

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Speaker 2: they to be that big of a favorite at home

335
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Speaker 2: when they haven't won a home game yet this season.

336
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Speaker 2: And you can get the Raiders at plus three hundred

337
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Speaker 2: right now against this Bengals team that they could just

338
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Speaker 2: implode and fold in on themselves at any moment. But

339
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Speaker 2: I talked about last week. They seem like the type

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Speaker 2: of team that they can beat up on bad teams

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Speaker 2: and they struggle against good teams. We both agree Raiders

342
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 2: are a bad team, not just because of the injuries,

343
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Speaker 2: not just because of the coaching mishaps. But end of

344
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Speaker 2: the day, it's the quarterback, right Minshew's been bad this year.

345
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Speaker 2: I don't think it's me any better when they turn

346
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Speaker 2: to their backup. So this is a game I wanted

347
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Speaker 2: to bust a bet, especially when I was eight and

348
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Speaker 2: a half. Now there's other lines I've kind of fallen

349
00:18:58,480 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 2: in love with and I like more than this one,

350
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Speaker 2: So I have no issue passing on this one here.

351
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Speaker 2: It's just so tempting to take the money line of

352
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Speaker 2: the Raiders. But man, if it's Desmond Rader, Me, Me

353
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Speaker 2: and Chad already went through this last year. There's just

354
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Speaker 2: I can't invest a lot of money into this guy

355
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Speaker 2: at quarterback.

356
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Speaker 1: I'm surprised that Broncos at plus nine was not your

357
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 1: Simon says. We've got assignment says, and an exec decision

358
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 1: still to come. New England at Tennessee. It's another one

359
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,200
Speaker 1: that you pegged on ya as liking New England as

360
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,120
Speaker 1: the three point dog. It got bet down to two

361
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 1: and a half, immediately went back up to three. Look,

362
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 1: the Patriots are trash. The Titans are trash, and the

363
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,639
Speaker 1: Titans defense actually isn't terrible, right, Like they're second against

364
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 1: play action in the NFL. First against the deep ball, third,

365
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 1: win a quarterback is not facing any pressure. Third against

366
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Speaker 1: rushing inside the tackles. Like rushing inside the tackles that

367
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Speaker 1: might be the only thing the Patriots can do. Yeah,

368
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Speaker 1: I really really wanted to bet on the Titans coming

369
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 1: off a blowout. You know, it just feels like when

370
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Speaker 1: you want to back that kind of team, that scenario

371
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 1: is not in. The Titans favor home faves after a

372
00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 1: loss of thirty plus points forty two percent against the spread.

373
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Speaker 1: Yep since two thousand and three, both tickets and even

374
00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:34,359
Speaker 1: more money on New England. Right now, New England is

375
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 1: feeling more and more like the side feels like you

376
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 1: kind of nailed it on Sunday night.

377
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, And honestly though I've I've talked to some professionals.

378
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: You do like the Tennessee side, and I'm with you.

379
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 2: I think they're just blindly bending because they just got

380
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:47,919
Speaker 2: blown out in a game which it was all special teams, right,

381
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,520
Speaker 2: It wasn't the offensives fault, it wasn't the defensive fault.

382
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 2: It really was their special team's fault. And I view

383
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: it as I'm just playing the number here. I get

384
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 2: all that other noise, but you can get three and

385
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 2: a half right now in New England as well, Like

386
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: there's a couple of books out there and a half.

387
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,680
Speaker 2: How do I not take that's that's just too too

388
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: much for this Tennessee team that I mean, we can

389
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: go back through a chad We've had so many weeks.

390
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,680
Speaker 2: We avoided this because we didn't like the nine line

391
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 2: with Tennessee, where you know, I think they are like

392
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites or they are three

393
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: point favorites, and it's like it didn't really make sense

394
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,159
Speaker 2: and we just stayed away from it and they end

395
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,920
Speaker 2: up getting like blown out or they lose those games.

396
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 2: So I had the same view here. It's like the books.

397
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 2: The professionals for some reason all year have liked this

398
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 2: Tennessee team, have respected this Tennessee team, and I'm just

399
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,119
Speaker 2: not there. So another game, this is three and a

400
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: half in our contest the dogs this week. This is

401
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: one of the dogs. I like, I would not be

402
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 2: shocked at me and you put this in our contest.

403
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,720
Speaker 2: It's just too many points for a Tennessee team that

404
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: if they won by three, I think that'd be a

405
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 2: great game from Tennessee. And on the flip side of

406
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,920
Speaker 2: the Patriots team, as bad as they've been this year,

407
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 2: they've been much better than Tennessee. Like they rarely do

408
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,879
Speaker 2: get blown out. They usually do hang into games. Like

409
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 2: the only game I can early think of was that

410
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,040
Speaker 2: Houston game where they really did a dominator from the

411
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 2: first snapped to the end of the game. We talked

412
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 2: about Houston's a really good team, Like even on the

413
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 2: weeks they don't have it all put together. We know

414
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,160
Speaker 2: once that offense gets rolled that they're pretty unstoppable. Sam

415
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 2: can go for you know, a bunch of teams that

416
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 2: Tennessee's played this year, but overall, to me, Tennessee has

417
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 2: just struggled, especially against bad teams this year. And you know,

418
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 2: it's just it's to me another coaching game where either

419
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 2: side of the ball, I don't trust the coaches on

420
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 2: either side. I don't know if you have the same

421
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 2: feeling here, but it's really just about the spread. And

422
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: you know, it would be great if it was Brussette,

423
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't let Drake May being in there throwing

424
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 2: me totally off. There's things he can do that Brusett

425
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 2: can't do that I actually like about Brussette. So yeah,

426
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 2: that's This is a tricky number right now because we

427
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 2: don't have a lot of info and the injuries with

428
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 2: both sides, But three and a half I'll grab that

429
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: right now just in case it does go back down

430
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: to three to two and a half?

431
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,439
Speaker 1: Right, Is it gonna be? Will Levis? Is it gonna be? Yeah,

432
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 1: Drake May. I just keep thinking of an image of

433
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 1: Ryan Callahan just clapping into the void, like trying to

434
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 1: maintain some enthusiasm on Sunday against the Lions and it's

435
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: just I feel for these guys.

436
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 3: I do.

437
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: I do because like your dream in any profession, your

438
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:25,920
Speaker 1: dream is for a lot of people get to the top,

439
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: be able to run something in your profession, you believe

440
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: you can do it better than the person who's doing it.

441
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 1: Where you're at, You've got ideas about how you want

442
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 1: to run it, how you're going to treat the people

443
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: on your team, how you're going to manage creatively. And

444
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 1: these jobs don't come up that often, and then you

445
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 1: got to take it. And you're taking the freaking Titans job. Yeah,

446
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: he's got Will Levice and a deconstructed roster and now

447
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 1: they're buyer sailing in the middle of the season, or

448
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: you're taking the Panther's job. We'll get to that game

449
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 1: into Saints, and it's just it's freaking devastating.

450
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 2: Really, it's like the old saying, no, there's only thirty

451
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: two of these jobs in the world. But it's like, yeah,

452
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 2: but you don't need to take one of the thirty

453
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 2: two jobs in the world. You can be patient, you

454
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 2: don't have to take these jobs.

455
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 1: Well, look at Ben Johnson right with the line, he's

456
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: nailing it. He's like assiduously avoided taking the first job

457
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: that comes along, even to his detriment, maybe in the

458
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: head coaching search along the way. But then again, you

459
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: keep firing up an offense, you keep getting your team

460
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 1: closer and closer to the Super Bowl. They're not gonna care.

461
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: You're gonna have your pick New Orleans at Carolina. Carolina

462
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: is a seven point home underdog.

463
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 2: Listen, Saints or nothing.

464
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 1: I mean, thank god you said that.

465
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: Well, Honestly, me and Matt Mitchell joking last week, Chad,

466
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 2: I told him, I've just been putting the Panthers in

467
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 2: my contest just since that whatever I think it was,

468
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 2: the Bengals game was my last time I gave the

469
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers a chance, and they got rolled in that

470
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 2: Bengals game. And I've literally gone to the viewpoint of

471
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,080
Speaker 2: this guy who just keeps just the record. I just

472
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 2: keep saying to myself, he's right. This is the worst

473
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: team in my lifetime I can remember. Honestly, I think

474
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 2: this team is worse than the zero to sixteen Lions

475
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 2: team from years ago. Like that team at least covered

476
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 2: with Dania Rolaski because they were undervalued in the market

477
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: and they would just lose. These funky, weird games under

478
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 2: the games right, it was just really about a bad

479
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,679
Speaker 2: team with bad coaching that was unlucky. This is not

480
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 2: an unlucky team in the Panthers. This is simply a

481
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 2: bad team with bad coaching that I've had horrible injury luck.

482
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 2: That was the only thing I think they've had is

483
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: really bad injury luck. Like their best defenders have gotten

484
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 2: hurt ave injuries to the offensive line. I mean last

485
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: week they are basically down to their three and four receiver,

486
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 2: which is already a team that they're one and two's

487
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: aren't one and twos. So it's just all bad for

488
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: Carolina and Chad knows how hard this when we do

489
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,439
Speaker 2: because I love home divisional dogs. I love them, but

490
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: this ain't one of them. Like, this is not the

491
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 2: time to take this Panthers team, especially with Derek Carr

492
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 2: coming back, so a game I might force it in.

493
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,919
Speaker 2: There's other favorites I do like more than this. But

494
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 2: if this is six and a half in contest, how

495
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,640
Speaker 2: do we not take it? Who are this Panthers team

496
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,479
Speaker 2: to be catching this Logan number? Like again, I think

497
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 2: the books they've adjusted this year right where Okay, maybe

498
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 2: the Broncos. You know, four years ago should have been

499
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 2: plus ten against this Ravens team, this Panthers team. This

500
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: should be like a thirteen spread. They've not adjusted at

501
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 2: all this season to this team. Like every week I

502
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: keep thinking we're gonna see some huge, massive spread. Even

503
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: last week, I think they opened at ninth against the Broncos.

504
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 2: Then once all the injury news came out, you know,

505
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 2: Andy Dalton getting her and everything like that, it moved

506
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 2: up to eleven and a half, and for some reason,

507
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 2: my stupid fucking brain, I was like, oh, well, now

508
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 2: the value's gone. I liked that nine and a half.

509
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 2: Now I don't like it eleven and a half, as

510
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 2: if that matters with this team. I think they lost

511
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 2: by whatever it was, fourteen. They're just terrible in every way,

512
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 2: So I like it. I like New Orleans now Derek

513
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 2: Carr back, just because I think this is a spark

514
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 2: this team needs after such dreadful QB play, Like you

515
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: could just see this getting this team back around, and

516
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 2: this is the perfect game for them to get right.

517
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 2: I mean, they put up what fifty points the first

518
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: time they played against each other. Obviously this is not

519
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 2: the same team, right, They've had major injuries to the

520
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: Saints team, but at the same time, some of the

521
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 2: Panthers they've only gotten much worse since that Week one.

522
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's rare for me to take a huge

523
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 2: favorite on the road, a divisional game like this, But

524
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: that's how bad this Panthers team is right now.

525
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: Home division dogs this year by the way, six ten

526
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: and one last two seasons since the beginning of twenty

527
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: twenty three. Uh against the spreads. So not like, not

528
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 1: terrible to take a road division favorite. Andy Delton's status

529
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 1: still to be determined. Derek Carr, Like you said, we'll

530
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 1: be back enough set about this game, like we're not.

531
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 1: We're not gonna get crazy Dallas at Atlanta. This is

532
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: a tricky game, very very tricky game. Like I want

533
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: to be on the Cowboys here. It feels it feels

534
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 1: very trappy to bet the falcon Remember last week when

535
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: I was all over the Bengals at minus two, minus

536
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: two and a half and you kept trying to warn me,

537
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: and I'm like, now, come on, this is this is

538
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: the way to go here, Like it's not the exact same,

539
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: but the number is the same. The Cowboys they're not

540
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: a good team and Dak looks terrible. Actually, you know,

541
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: we called him mal Santa and convinced me this week

542
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 1: because Kerner had him at under seven and a half

543
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 1: rushing yards because he just doesn't leave the pocket, and

544
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: you could see it on plays negative one rushing yard,

545
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: but two and a half Like this Falcons stem there's

546
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: something that's like, there's something not quite right about them.

547
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: They're top three in the offense in the NFL. That's

548
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: mainly because Kirk Cousins has played the Bucks twice and

549
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: thrown for a million yards and seven hundred touchdowns. Right,

550
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: So it's either to me Cowboys or nothing. It feels

551
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 1: pretty well lined right now.

552
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the other side. I do like a

553
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 2: landing here. It's just because I agree with you. The

554
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: Cowboys just they seem lost right now, not just because

555
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 2: of all the injuries, but it's the coaching too. I mean,

556
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 2: you're up whatever that was. I feel like it was

557
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 2: ten to six whatever the number score was on the

558
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 2: road against the forty nine ers, and then you give

559
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: up twenty one straight in the third quarter, like they

560
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 2: got completely blown out against that foreign I as seeing

561
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 2: that third quarter and it was just all it's all

562
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 2: about the adjustments like Foreign Iris made great adjustments. You

563
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,239
Speaker 2: came out. I think Dak threw a pick on his

564
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 2: first possession in that second half, and it's just like

565
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 2: you said to me, I tried to fall back too

566
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 2: much because he is he is putting it all on

567
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: his shoulders and this, you know, Jerry Jones. I feel

568
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: like they're all failing Dak right now, a guy who

569
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 2: they just gave all that money to in a bunch

570
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: of different ways. But uh yeah, the Atlanta one is

571
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 2: interesting because last week again we didn't put it in.

572
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 2: I like Atlanta's side. The professionals love the Bucks, Like

573
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 2: that number got up to three and then went all

574
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: the way down to one right before kickoff, like big

575
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 2: money came in on that Bucks team. For what Chad

576
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 2: just talked about. People just do not trust this Falcons team.

577
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: A lot of the stuff they do this year is fluky.

578
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 2: They're inconsistent. Their defense as your defense, their defense.

579
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 1: That's that is why it's not about their offense. Like

580
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins is playing great, Kyle Pitts is actually looking

581
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: like the guy that they spent the final overall pick on,

582
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,479
Speaker 1: Like Bijon is running people over and duking people at

583
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: the same time, like Darryl Mooney looks amazing, right, but

584
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: their defense is like they not get to the quarterback.

585
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 2: No, and that that's gonna be obviously a bonus is

586
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: this Dallas team. And I wanted to be on Dallas

587
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 2: because they're obviously gonna be more desperate team here. But

588
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 2: I'm sadly I've ended up on the Falcons here just

589
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: because of the number I make this number three. It's

590
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 2: two and a half, so I'm gonna end up taking

591
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 2: the Falcons. But this game, like I wouldn't bet it

592
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 2: a lot of money on it, just because it feels

593
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 2: like just seeing that I had the feeling with the

594
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 2: buck seam, whoever the ball last is gonna win this game, right,

595
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 2: It's gonna be a close, close game just because neither

596
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: defense is good, right they they neither defense can close

597
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 2: games out. So that that's the thing here where it's like,

598
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 2: all right, I have other games I like more to bet,

599
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: but Chad's right where his initial thought of the Cowboys,

600
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: I think most professionals are gonna come into the Cowboys.

601
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 2: So I'm not rushing to bet this a landa number

602
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: right now, but that that right now, is the side

603
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 2: I'm showing value on.

604
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: Unfortunately, I don't want to say you fool the way

605
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 1: you know, hurt my feelings when I picked the Bengals

606
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: last week.

607
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 2: I'm your friend. I'm trying to I was trying to

608
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: help you, of Chad.

609
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: You know what the problem was last week I was

610
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: not feeling great, Like I.

611
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 2: Know, I just can't believe you took a favor the

612
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,239
Speaker 2: where you had these dogs you loved and there were

613
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:11,719
Speaker 2: great picks and you didn't pick them.

614
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: It was just I actually thought about this this morning,

615
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: Like last week, we loved the Browns, we loved the Raiders,

616
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 1: we loved you loved the Jags. I didn't love the.

617
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 2: Colt sell which was again that was a sharp number.

618
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: That was a shark the Colts. I think I had

619
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 1: the Colts that it was my exac decision. I felt

620
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 1: not to like double up on my exact decision and

621
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: my screw roulette and like normally I try to prepare

622
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 1: on Thursdays and like, okay, what's my Scoots Roulette pick

623
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,239
Speaker 1: gonna be? And I'll make notes on it, And for

624
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: some reason I didn't do it on Thursday. And then

625
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,360
Speaker 1: I saw Cincinnati and like had circled it and like

626
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: I just loved Joe Burrows so much, we all did

627
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: him so much. I got I got caught, I got got,

628
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: I got got. As they say, all right, I mentioned

629
00:32:58,680 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: at the top of the show that we are coming

630
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: you live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. Great games

631
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:09,000
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639
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 1: Miami at Buffalo, Buffalo's a six and a half point favorite.

640
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: I loved it on Sunday night when it was at six.

641
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 1: I bet it at six. You can see that in

642
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 1: the Action Network app too. It is two and ten

643
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:55,719
Speaker 1: straight up, three eight and one against the spread, away

644
00:33:55,760 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: from home versus winning teams. In his NFL career year

645
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: before this season begins, Evan Abrams director of research. Everyone

646
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:11,720
Speaker 1: loves him. He gives like massive packets. If you read

647
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 1: his story on a weekly basis, you can see all

648
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: the day to the has So he gives all this

649
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: information on quarterbacks, coaches, teams, trends, and then I'll like

650
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 1: make my notes and I'll pull them aside and I'll

651
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: make my own little packets for individual things. So I

652
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 1: have been waiting for two way to go to the

653
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 1: Bills so we could talk about this game because he's

654
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 1: been especially bad against the Bills. Oh and seven straight

655
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: up one and six versus Josh Allen. I just have

656
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 1: no reason not to bet the Bills here.

657
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 2: I will never forget we had a cover where basically

658
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: the Bills I'll gain the Miami by like three hundred

659
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 2: yards in Miami. I mean you still covered that Miami bet.

660
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,879
Speaker 2: So I am shocked they didn't win that game as well.

661
00:34:55,920 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: But this is we had this one circle. I didn't

662
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 2: care if the professionals are coming on Miami and that

663
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 2: they were going to try to bully us again this week.

664
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: There is no way this isn't one of our five.

665
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 2: Like I love this favorite, I bet this favorite. I

666
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 2: will have this in a ton of teasers. I am

667
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 2: happy to lose money on this type of bet just

668
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 2: because Josh Allen has been so good to me in

669
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 2: these type of spots, in this exact kind of game

670
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 2: where it's his team first, a bad team. That's I

671
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 2: get it. They're desperate. This is for their season, Josh Allen,

672
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 2: coming off a huge road win, you expect them to

673
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 2: have a let down game. I don't think so. I

674
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 2: think they view this as a divisional game with a

675
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,239
Speaker 2: team they do not like, and a game they know.

676
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: If they win this, they basically close out their division

677
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 2: for the most part midway through this season. I mean,

678
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 2: they're about to close out their division on whatever it

679
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 2: is November third, November seven, which has just got to

680
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: be the greatest feeling ever as a fan. So yeah,

681
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 2: I love this for the Bills. It's a statement game.

682
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 2: It's a great number right now, especially a couple of

683
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 2: books showing six still. I mean, I love that. Maybe

684
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 2: me and you will get lucky and we'll get a

685
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: five and a half come Thursday in our contest with

686
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,160
Speaker 2: just be an absolute gift. So yeah, the matchup wise,

687
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 2: there are ways that Miami can attack this Bill's defense.

688
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 2: We've seen that the Bills defense does have some weaknesses,

689
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 2: but overall, offensively, I love this matchup for the Bills,

690
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 2: Like I just I can't see them punting more than

691
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: them twice in this entire game. Like there's just so

692
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 2: many ways for them to attack it and we've seen

693
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 2: it time and time again. Like even going back to

694
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 2: that game they played earlier in the year. Sure was

695
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 2: a little fluky, right because two had those really bad

696
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,239
Speaker 2: turnovers and then got banged up, But they were again

697
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: donating a bunch of different ways in that game, like

698
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: they're forcing to in no uncomfortable positions because they've just

699
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: seen that offense so many times at this point, right.

700
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 2: I Mean that's the thing withou be in the same division,

701
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 2: and there is no defense for Josh Allen. Like when

702
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: Josh Allen's on, you can't beat him. And he did't

703
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: even had that grave of a game last week. It

704
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 2: was really about this new identity right with Joe Brady,

705
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:50,879
Speaker 2: and they can run the ball down your throat, which

706
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 2: is what they could do here against this Miami team.

707
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, you know they got Cook Ray Davis, whoever

708
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:58,360
Speaker 2: it is the running back on this team right now,

709
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter, right as long as you have Josh

710
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 2: Allen back there, and that counts for another defender in

711
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,280
Speaker 2: the box. It has to watch Josh Allen. That's always

712
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 2: gonna be advantage to the running back. So yeah, clearly

713
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 2: people can tell I love this matchup with this Bill's team.

714
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 1: I'm on this number, Simon, I'm making it my executive decision.

715
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:22,320
Speaker 3: There you go, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.

716
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 2: Are your execute number executive decision.

717
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 1: In two games this year, two has played you know,

718
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 1: two and a half games, one of those games against

719
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: the Bills when he got knocked out. He has struggled

720
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 1: to barely beat the Jags, not a very good team,

721
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: and lost to the Cards, a mediocre team. To me,

722
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: that makes the Dolphins a middling to not very good team. Yeah,

723
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: and the Bills dominate middling to not very good teams.

724
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,360
Speaker 1: They are not a team that plays down to their opponent.

725
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: Even when they are losing in the first half, they

726
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: find a way to get on that street and they

727
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 1: go four five scores in the second half. A bigger

728
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: ish number just does not worry me. With Josh Allen.

729
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 2: Now, we talk luck all the time. We will need

730
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 2: to get unlucky to not cover this number. Honestly, like,

731
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 2: we would need josh On to have two turnovers and

732
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: to have the game of his life for us not

733
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 2: to cover this number. Just that's how much I think

734
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 2: of the MISMATCHSS is for the Bills of Miami team.

735
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: All right, exec decision is in Buffalo Bills. I liked

736
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: it a minus six six and a half Los Angeles

737
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 1: Chargers at the Cleveland Browns. This one has come down

738
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 1: a lot since the games ended on Sunday night. It

739
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: was Cleveland, it was the Chargers minus three and a half,

740
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:49,320
Speaker 1: now down to two. Yeah, more money on the Browns

741
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: than she gets, which is interesting to me. This to

742
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:58,800
Speaker 1: me feels like in overreaction to the Browns, like people

743
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 1: are either deciding, Okay, the Browns are finally going to

744
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: be the Browns that we expect them to be. Their

745
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 1: defense is getting healthy, they're going to be dominant, and

746
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: Jamis is going to play the way Kevin Stefanski, who

747
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 1: I think is a great coach and has just gotten

748
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 1: kind of screwed with this Deshaun Watson bullshit. He finally

749
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: gets a guy who's closer to what he needs. I'm

750
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 1: going to go back to two plays Jamis fumble from

751
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: a sack late in the first half gives the Ravens

752
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: the lead ten to six. In that game, Jamis overthrowing

753
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: receiver Kyle Hamilton, just dropping the ball that would have

754
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 1: ended the Browns chances to win that game. I am

755
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: worried I will get that Jamis in any closer game.

756
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can afford those kind of mistakes.

757
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a professional early money, though, was smart.

758
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 2: It was the right side. They should have taken Jamis

759
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 2: as a three point dog or a three and a

760
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 2: half point dog at home against his Chargers team. That

761
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 2: I agree with you. Their whole identity is we wait

762
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:05,439
Speaker 2: for you to make the mistick and that's how we win.

763
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: Like they just they don't make the mistakes. They hang

764
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: in these games, these ugly games, and then eventually they

765
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 2: get you because they have a great running attack and Herbert,

766
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 2: do we know, is one of the better quarterbacks in

767
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 2: the league. He's just inconsistent. But this year they can

768
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 2: hide that. With a great running offense. You don't need Joe,

769
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,439
Speaker 2: you know, justin Herbert to be a top five guy

770
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 2: right now. That's the Chargers' identity is like, okay, we

771
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 2: don't need to have the ball in this guy's hands

772
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 2: all the time. We can rely on other guys and

773
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 2: a little bit of a little bit of gimmick, right,

774
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 2: A lot of their offense because they don't have great receivers,

775
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 2: It's a lot of gimmick offense, a lot of motion,

776
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 2: a lot of just trying to get their third tight

777
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 2: end wide open for five yard completion. Like that's what

778
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: their identity has been and it's been working. So you're

779
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: right to me that the numbers come down enough now

780
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: where I could be on this Charger side, But I'm

781
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: not in a rush to bet it. I think the

782
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 2: public will keep coming in with the professionals on this

783
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:58,760
Speaker 2: Cleveland side, just because these are pretty honestly, pretty evenly

784
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 2: matched teams. Chad, Like, when I break this down, you know,

785
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 2: I have this number at Chargers minus one, So right

786
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 2: now I am showing value on the Browns. But you

787
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: just nailed it. I feel like I got away with

788
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 2: them last week with James, Like there was just a

789
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 2: couple of plays, like you said, and that was the

790
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: best game we could get from Jamis. He threw for

791
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: over three hundred yards. He was just locked in in

792
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 2: that second half, and you know that dropped by Cole Hamilton.

793
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 2: That that's why our money line hit on this Browns team,

794
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 2: like they should not have won that game. The guy

795
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 2: literally caught that three different times. He caught it three

796
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 2: different times and still somehow dropped it. So you're right,

797
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,919
Speaker 2: Like I got to put my biases as side because

798
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 2: I do want to take the Browns here. It's like,

799
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 2: I feel like they have a whole new rujuvenation here

800
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 2: and they know they can kind of not get their

801
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 2: season back, but they can like there is a path

802
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 2: for them to somehow get to a wild card, and

803
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: to get there they have to win this game. So

804
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 2: you know, I wanted to be on the Browns, but

805
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 2: You're right, the numbers probably moved too, even though I'm

806
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 2: still showing value on the Browns here. It's it's gonna

807
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:05,800
Speaker 2: hit up pointhere. It's like I'm gonna feel more confident

808
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 2: comfortable taking the Chargers team. So I'll just be patient here,

809
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 2: wait for this number to keep coming down. I'll take

810
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,239
Speaker 2: the Chargers team that makes you make mistakes, and this

811
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 2: is the perfect opportunity for them to play against a

812
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 2: team with Jamis Winston.

813
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:19,720
Speaker 1: I'm glad you say that because in the notes here,

814
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,840
Speaker 1: I wrote at this point, I'm starting to lean Chargers,

815
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 1: like I haven't bet it yet, but I look at

816
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: the Chargers and I just feel like they're competent. You know,

817
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: they're not making the game changing mistakes. They're winning the

818
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 1: games they're supposed to win. Don't listen, mcconkis.

819
00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 2: But if they're the type of team too, if they

820
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 2: get down ten here, you know they're dead. Yeah, okay,

821
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 2: but I.

822
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 1: Think it's I think it'd be really hard for them

823
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: to get down ten.

824
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

825
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:57,280
Speaker 1: The Ravens defense and the Ravens secondary is the perfect

826
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 1: antidote to Jamis wins in craziness, you know, like he

827
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: can look great against the secondary like that. I don't

828
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 1: think that it'll be the same outcome playing against the

829
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 1: Chargers defense. So I'm leaning Chargers. But we're not there yet.

830
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 1: They're not there yet, So it was a simon, says Washington.

831
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 1: And the New York Giants another dreadful performance last night

832
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 1: against the Steelers. They were six six and a half

833
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: point dogs. Every model, every trend, everything said take the Giants,

834
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 1: Take the Giants, Take the Giants. I was waiting on

835
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: that game because I felt like it was going to

836
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 1: get back to six and a half, so I hadn't

837
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 1: bet it. And then my wife and I took our

838
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 1: son out to dinner, and dinner went much longer than

839
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,479
Speaker 1: I expected, and so I just forgot about the game

840
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 1: like we were at dinner. So I never bet it.

841
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 1: And I'm like, thank freaking God, because that would have

842
00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: been an excruciating game to bet. Wow. I know you

843
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 1: talked about wanting to be on the Giants on Sunday night.

844
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 1: God Andrew Thomas is not playing. The home Dogs are

845
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 1: terrible this year. The Giants continue to look like during

846
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:18,240
Speaker 1: a free fall. Explain to me, just tell.

847
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 2: Me, yeah, And I shocked in the eye. It's rare

848
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 2: that I don't watch a football game, but I basically

849
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 2: took Pittsburgh's money line whatever it was, say it was

850
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 2: minus two fifty, and I go, all right, I have

851
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 2: zero interest watching this game. I'm just gonna watch the

852
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 2: World Series. And even though the World Series game wasn't great,

853
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 2: I'm so happy I watched it rather than watching this game,

854
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: just because I think at halftime it was nine to

855
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 2: nine and there was like three different touchdowns were called

856
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 2: back on on weird penalties and a bunch of different stuff,

857
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 2: and I just that game. I can't believe that Giants

858
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 2: didn't honestly cover, like they had the ball at end

859
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,799
Speaker 2: of the game, they're driving to score the back door

860
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: cover and of course Daniel Jones throws an interception because

861
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 2: it is Daniel Jones. So I'm with you. Like we've

862
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,839
Speaker 2: talked about this year, the bad teams are bad. They

863
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 2: are just really bad right now. And if this was

864
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 2: three four years ago, Chad, this would be a no brainer.

865
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:18,400
Speaker 2: Hammer this commanders off of Hell Mary now on the

866
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 2: road in a divisional game against a team that once

867
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 2: again did not cover. You're right, It's like, you know,

868
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: this is not for the faint of heart. This is

869
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: this is what the professionals do. This is what I do.

870
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 2: I have to take this number, so I'm not going

871
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 2: to force it in. There's another game I like more

872
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 2: that I'm gonna try to force it on you, but

873
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 2: this is not the one. But I will see it

874
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 2: come Thursday if you've come around on this one. But

875
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 2: it's like, this is how I make my living these

876
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 2: type of games. This is such an incredible spot to

877
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 2: fade this commander's team, especially where Daniel Jones only plays

878
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 2: good against one team. Me and you joke about this,

879
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 2: it's the damn truth. If you go through his history,

880
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 2: it's the Commanders, like he plays well against them. Those

881
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 2: matter if it's on the road at home. The Giants

882
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 2: historically matchup well with the Commanders as well, not just

883
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 2: defensively but offensively as well. So there's a lot to

884
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:08,879
Speaker 2: like here. But I get where you're coming from. They're

885
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 2: just they're so bad right now, this Giants team. And

886
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 2: I think though you saw it last that game against Pittsburgh,

887
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 2: they did make adjustments for being down key guys in

888
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,719
Speaker 2: the offensive line, right, I mean, as great as CJ.

889
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 2: Watt is, they kind of neutralized them in that game. Right.

890
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 2: They kept going away from him to the other side,

891
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 2: and anytime they knew he was gonna come up field,

892
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: they put a tight end out there, block him down,

893
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 2: then just run right through that huge gaping hole that

894
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 2: TJ was giving up. So I do think, you know,

895
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 2: they do have some great coach and the Giants that

896
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 2: they can make these adjustments. But the biggest one is

897
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 2: just I want to fade this Washington team so bad. Chat,

898
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 2: it's just they got so lucky last week. I know

899
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 2: people think the Bears got lucky. Even though they had

900
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 2: a walk in touchdown, they fumbled at the one and

901
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 2: then drove the field again and scored another touchdown. People

902
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 2: are like, oh, you guys were just lucky to even

903
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 2: be in that position. Were we Were we the lucky

904
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 2: ones being on Chicago? Or should they have been up

905
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,399
Speaker 2: twenty one to twelve at the end of that game?

906
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,479
Speaker 2: So I'm not better. People can tell I'm not better

907
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,719
Speaker 2: at all. But yeah, there's a hard one for me

908
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 2: because I really want to fade this Commander's team, but

909
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 2: I'm not going to force our listeners to take these

910
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:16,360
Speaker 2: shitty divisional dogs just because I historically love this spot.

911
00:47:16,560 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 1: Wait, the Bears lost that game against the Commanders because

912
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 1: I blacked out in the final twenty three seconds of

913
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:24,479
Speaker 1: the game.

914
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:27,399
Speaker 2: Smart man, keep looking forward, So I.

915
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 1: Don't know what you're talking about. I have no memory

916
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 1: of that whatsoever. I think you can actually see the

917
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 1: blackout happening live if you go through and look for

918
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 1: our question.

919
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 2: Well, my favorite thing is people that watched that video,

920
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 2: they were like, They're like, there's no way Simon Bett's

921
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 2: real money on this games. Look how he'd barely even reacted.

922
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 2: If you really lost a ton of money, you'd be

923
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 2: so much more upset. That was even the worst thing

924
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 2: that happened to me this past week. People were subset

925
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 2: and overreact to it. It's just like guys, I've seen

926
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: it all. I mean, it brought back a memory my

927
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 2: worst bet. I didn't want to bring it up to

928
00:47:54,880 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 2: you on Sunday night, but to me, are still worst

929
00:47:57,360 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 2: bet ever. Even that was awful. Was one time me

930
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,600
Speaker 2: and Chad had the Cardinals minus two and a half

931
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 2: and they threw a hell Mary pass. They won the game,

932
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 2: and Chad called me up to celebrate. I said, well,

933
00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 2: they didn't kick the extra point yet, we haven't covered anything,

934
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 2: and they kneeled. You remember this, every was gonna kneeled

935
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 2: the ball down, didn't kick the extra point, and me

936
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 2: and him lost by half a point. To me, that's

937
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 2: still even though this was terrible, that forever was why

938
00:48:22,080 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 2: I was just forever burned by this whole thing with

939
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:26,399
Speaker 2: you know, just been the two and a half. It's

940
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 2: such a key number.

941
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 1: I do remember, having now known professional betters for twenty

942
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:33,839
Speaker 1: five years, I don't know any betters who freak out

943
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 1: when they lose a big game. And I don't know

944
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:37,919
Speaker 1: any betters who freak out when they win a big game.

945
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 1: Like when I was freaking out, I was freaking out

946
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 1: as a fan, not as someone who had the game right,

947
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,959
Speaker 1: Like I could give a shit about the bet I made.

948
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,719
Speaker 1: I just was like apoplectic that this team that I love,

949
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 1: that I invest so much energy in that I am

950
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: like growing more and more attached to as I get

951
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: older and I have no kids in the house soon

952
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 1: to be anymore, Like you know, you have memories of them,

953
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: and it's like a connection and it keeps me connected

954
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 1: to friends and family and like it's something we talk about.

955
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 1: So I just want them to do well. I've been

956
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: with betters when they win one hundred thousand dollars. You

957
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 1: know what they do, They put the money back in play.

958
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,080
Speaker 2: That reaction is how professionals react to those type of things.

959
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 2: It's just another day, another day at the fucking office

960
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 2: losing that type of bet I.

961
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: Don't mind the defensive line of the Giants against Jadan Daniels,

962
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 1: like the Bears have a similar passage, similar coverage capabilities,

963
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 1: and Daniels had a pretty terrible game except for that

964
00:49:40,600 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 1: one career defining play, So I don't hate this I

965
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,800
Speaker 1: understand all the logic. I just worry about the trend

966
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 1: right now with backing bad quarterbacks on bad teams is

967
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:52,959
Speaker 1: not in our favorite.

968
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 2: I'm with you, it's not fun. This is not a

969
00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 2: little better.

970
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: It was a little better last week, right, Jags.

971
00:49:58,239 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 2: We went three and oh technically.

972
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:04,719
Speaker 1: Backs Colts, but four no Jags, Colts, Brown's Raiders, Like

973
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 1: the Raiders weren't in the contest, but we were on them.

974
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 1: So it's coming back our way with the record. This

975
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 1: is likely to be a luck rankings game favoring the

976
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 1: Giants definitely. All right, Chicago at Arizona. We talked about

977
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: the Bears. You can actually track the change in the

978
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 1: line in the action app with the end of the

979
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 1: Bears game last night. End of the Bears game two

980
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 1: nights ago, the Cars were one point dogs at six

981
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:32,360
Speaker 1: forty six, when the Bears were still down twelve to nothing.

982
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 1: At seven pm, they were half point dogs. At seven

983
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 1: thirty pm, the Bears were one point the Cars were

984
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 1: one point favorites, and at seven thirty four, about when

985
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: the Bears scored the goal had touchdown, there were one

986
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 1: point dogs again. As soon as the game ended, the

987
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:51,120
Speaker 1: Cars were favorites. Again, this is a pros Joe's game

988
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:55,800
Speaker 1: right now with the pros on the Bears. So their defense,

989
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:58,720
Speaker 1: despite the hail mayor of fiasco, it's really good oppression

990
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 1: in the quarterback, really good in the red zone.

991
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bears are the better team. They should be favored

992
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 2: in this game. I want nothing to do with this game.

993
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 2: I want to see how the Bears team reacts to

994
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 2: that type of thing we already talked about. This is

995
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 2: either gonna rail their season or this is gonna make

996
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: their season. They're gonna be in a wildcard team and

997
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 2: like that, that's a defining game, sopecially for Kayleb Williams,

998
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:19,320
Speaker 2: where I don't know if you saw the video of

999
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,879
Speaker 2: him into that game. Not the best look, but again,

1000
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 2: he's a young kid who's gonna have to learn how

1001
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 2: to lose in life. Like he's been a winner his

1002
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 2: whole life. I guess he did lose a little bit

1003
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: at USC, but overall he's just the guy who always wins,

1004
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 2: and now we have to see how he can handle

1005
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:36,439
Speaker 2: these brutal losses because you know, as a Bears fan,

1006
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 2: this is just the beginning. Brother, It's like that meme

1007
00:51:39,280 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 2: first time, Like he's got to get used to this.

1008
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 2: The Bears are suffering franchise. They have losses like this,

1009
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 2: It's just how it is with this team. Certain teams

1010
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 2: are just built this way. And Arison on the flip side,

1011
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 2: how do they handle winning two straight Chad like this

1012
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 2: is a team now in total control of this division.

1013
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 2: If they if they can win this game and keep

1014
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:01,240
Speaker 2: it going, who's this say they can't win this division

1015
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: like they do. You know, we and you talked before

1016
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 2: the year. We loved Kyler and the talent they surrendered

1017
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 2: with an offense. Our question was their defense, which still

1018
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 2: is pretty bad. So matchup wise, the Bears should be favorite.

1019
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:18,879
Speaker 2: The professional money should be coming on them because they're

1020
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 2: not like me and you. They're not getting drowned into this.

1021
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 2: How these teams can react to this. So they're just

1022
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 2: simply playing their model, and the model is going to

1023
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 2: say the Bears are the better team. They should probably

1024
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 2: be minus two minus two and a half on this

1025
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 2: Bears team. But yeah, I'm too close this one. I

1026
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 2: want to take Arizona, but I'm just going to stay

1027
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:37,160
Speaker 2: away from this game. I'll probably en up betting Arizona

1028
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 2: if it does get up to Tube. But right now.

1029
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 2: I have no role read on this one.

1030
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:46,000
Speaker 1: That's interesting. I thought, like my instinct immediately bet the Bears.

1031
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 1: I had no concerns with that whatsoever. And it's not

1032
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 1: because I think eber Flus is a great coach, you know.

1033
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 1: I think the Bears should have let him go and

1034
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 1: they should have given Caleb, you know, some stability with

1035
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 1: a coach who they believed would be there for several years.

1036
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:00,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1037
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be pushing him out after one

1038
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 1: bad year because he's already proven he can't do it.

1039
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 1: I just feel like it's a it's a good spot,

1040
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:09,760
Speaker 1: like the Bears should not be underdogs in this game.

1041
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:12,120
Speaker 1: If it got to Bears plus two, I would be

1042
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 1: very comfortable playing the Bears as underdogs.

1043
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:15,040
Speaker 2: Here.

1044
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 1: Jags at Philly, you were leading Jags. Jags are seven

1045
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs, you were leaning Jags on

1046
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 1: Sunday Night.

1047
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 2: How come I just got through the numbers too big?

1048
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:28,800
Speaker 2: And then I found out that basically the whole Jaguars

1049
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 2: where I receiving corps is just gone. You know. Christian

1050
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 2: Kirk done, my guy, Brian Thompson Jr. My miss two

1051
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 2: to four weeks. That reflects this line and the movement

1052
00:53:40,600 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 2: like this, to me, the number is gonna be too big.

1053
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 2: And now it's like, okay, this actually makes perfect sense

1054
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 2: now because you know Trevor Lawrence, as bad as he's been,

1055
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:52,839
Speaker 2: he does have some great He did have some great

1056
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 2: weapons on the outside, and a lot of that has

1057
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 2: been on him. He's even said it so himself. He's

1058
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 2: been inconsistent this year. Then they gotta have Ingram's back,

1059
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 2: which is a huge deal. This tight end is just

1060
00:54:02,560 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 2: a monster, and you know Trevor Lawrence knows how to

1061
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:06,480
Speaker 2: throw to them. It's like, all right, put the ball

1062
00:54:06,520 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 2: up higher than anyone else. Van Ingram's incredible at high

1063
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 2: points in the ball. I don't know if Eva's going

1064
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 2: to make up for them losing their number one, number

1065
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:15,600
Speaker 2: two receiver though, And that that to me is what

1066
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: stand out here. So a game I'm happy to avoid

1067
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 2: now because it's so big. If you want to tease

1068
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: the Eagles, I'll tease them with you, like this is

1069
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: a good teaser number. Eagles are gonna win this game.

1070
00:54:25,480 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 2: I just could see with this Jacks team keeping it close.

1071
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 2: Because this Eagles team, I mean, last week was a

1072
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: breakaway from the norm. They actually blew a team out,

1073
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 2: but they have not been that team. And a couple

1074
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 2: of professionals view is this is that this Eagles team

1075
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:42,359
Speaker 2: they went to that bye week, you know, Fangs made

1076
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 2: adjustment to the defense. The guys seem like they got

1077
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 2: more comfortable. These rookies have been playing better for the

1078
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 2: Eagles defensively and the just everyone seems like they know

1079
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 2: that system more and then offensively, Kurts has not turned

1080
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 2: the ball over. That's been the difference for them, right,

1081
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:57,399
Speaker 2: He's not making the stupid turnovers. When he does throw

1082
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,799
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty balls downfield, it's fit fifty fifty where

1083
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:02,759
Speaker 2: his guy's gonna catch it or no one's catching it. Right.

1084
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 2: He's kind of figured out what he needs to be

1085
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:08,279
Speaker 2: this season, and they're the number two team right now

1086
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 2: in the NFL and rushing obviously, the Ravens are way

1087
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 2: ahead of them. They're ahead of everyone. They've been incredible

1088
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: running the ball, but we've seen Saquan and Hurtz have

1089
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,360
Speaker 2: kind of figured this thing out, right, They've really figured

1090
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 2: out how to run it with both these guys, and

1091
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 2: this is a nice matchup first Aquon against this team

1092
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: and the Jaguars that cannot stop the run. So I

1093
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 2: get why this numbers moved up so much, and I'm

1094
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 2: happy to pass on the chat. It's just I have

1095
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 2: no faith betting the Jaguars again, like you said last week.

1096
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 2: Kind of got away with them last week, so I'm

1097
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 2: not trying to roll the dice once again on this

1098
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 2: Jaguars team.

1099
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: And by the way, none of us are immune for

1100
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 1: mistakes in our very limited PTI segment earlier today, I

1101
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 1: said Darryl Mooney, I meant Darniel Mooney. Simon just said

1102
00:55:51,680 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 1: Brian Thompson. He meant Brian Thomas, receiver for the Jacks.

1103
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 1: The La Rams at Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night. You

1104
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:06,360
Speaker 1: loved the Rams at plus one and a half. It

1105
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 1: almost immediately moved to Rams plus one, and then they

1106
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 1: were favorites pretty quickly after that. It has bounced around.

1107
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 1: Some books have the Rams as dogs right now, others

1108
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 1: have them as faves. The pro seem to be on

1109
00:56:24,400 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 1: the Seahawks right now. Teams coming off a loss of

1110
00:56:30,080 --> 00:56:34,720
Speaker 1: three touchdowns or more the following week fifty six percent

1111
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:39,240
Speaker 1: against the spread since twenty eighteen. Do we still love

1112
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 1: the Rams here?

1113
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 2: Still love them? I'd still bet them because it's under

1114
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:45,279
Speaker 2: the key number, which you always talk about two. So

1115
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 2: right now the highest I'm seeing in Los Angeles minus

1116
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 2: one and a half at a couple books still love

1117
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 2: the Rams. I just don't think the books have updated

1118
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 2: their line enough to having Pooka and Cooper cup back

1119
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:58,960
Speaker 2: to me, they didn't adjust to it last week, they

1120
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:00,719
Speaker 2: haven't adjust to it this week week as well, So

1121
00:57:00,760 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 2: I'm still getting value here. And I don't think they've

1122
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 2: downgraded the Seahawks team enough where you know, coming too

1123
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 2: the year, people thought they were gonna be much better

1124
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 2: defensively just because of the head coaching higher and then

1125
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 2: another year of Geno in this offense should be better.

1126
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 2: Gino has been passing, has incredible passing yards, but he

1127
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: struggled in the red zone this season. Defensively, this is

1128
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 2: a team that just can't stop the run. And you know,

1129
00:57:23,960 --> 00:57:25,720
Speaker 2: as much you want to talk about how great the

1130
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 2: Rams are through the air, their whole identities built through

1131
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 2: the run and everything they do is predicated off of that.

1132
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 2: So unless there's some bad weather coming into this one,

1133
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:36,360
Speaker 2: and I'm missing this right now because so early in

1134
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 2: the week, how do you not love the Rams to

1135
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball against them, like the

1136
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 2: weapons they have. I think we both agree that Vikings

1137
00:57:43,240 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 2: defense is much better than that Seahawks defense, and especially

1138
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 2: all the exotic blicks packages that the Vikings defense did,

1139
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 2: all the different looks they can give you. The Stafford's

1140
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 2: don't mean to it. He's seen it all. That's why

1141
00:57:54,320 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 2: I talked about I think better in quarterbacks had a

1142
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:59,120
Speaker 2: huge advantage playing against that Vikings team. Guys who have

1143
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:01,320
Speaker 2: seen it all. They don't get flustered by those type

1144
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:03,560
Speaker 2: of looks. Sam, you can go for the Seahawks. I

1145
00:58:03,560 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 2: don't know what the Seahawks defense can do attack wise

1146
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,919
Speaker 2: to stop this offense in the LA and the flip side.

1147
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 2: This Rams team, I mean, Aaron Donald was a huge loss.

1148
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 2: Their front four has actually been pretty good this year,

1149
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 2: Like they're not that terrible that people thought they were

1150
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 2: going to be coming to the season. Like their real

1151
00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 2: weaknesses their young secondary. But I think the Seahawks are

1152
00:58:22,240 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 2: still gonna bebout DK Metcalf, which we saw last week

1153
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,840
Speaker 2: was a big deal. Like there was a noticeable difference

1154
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 2: of them not being able to tack the ball downfield

1155
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 2: and the Bills instead of having to have both safeties back.

1156
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,160
Speaker 2: They only only had to have one drop back and

1157
00:58:34,160 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 2: they could stack the box against Keneth Walker, which is

1158
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:38,920
Speaker 2: a big deal. Like the Seahawks want to feed him,

1159
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 2: they want to run the ball. When you take that

1160
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:43,320
Speaker 2: away and put on Gino, we see that that just

1161
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 2: doesn't work. He's not that type of quarterback. So still

1162
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 2: like this number, it's still under two. I'll still bet

1163
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,720
Speaker 2: the Rams, obviously. I hope everyone listens Sunday night because

1164
00:58:52,720 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 2: it's just it's nice you get the plus one and

1165
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:56,920
Speaker 2: a half. It's such a key number, especially with this

1166
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 2: Rams team.

1167
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, everything you're saying makes total sense. I think we

1168
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:05,000
Speaker 1: asked ourselves last week. We thought the Bills Seahawks was

1169
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 1: a statement game for the Seahawks in that are they

1170
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 1: going to to be defined as a good team or

1171
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 1: a mediocre team? And the Bills, We've said they struggle

1172
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:22,240
Speaker 1: against the good teams, and they dominate the mediocre teams.

1173
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 1: And they dominated. They dominated so badly that the Seahawks

1174
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:31,600
Speaker 1: were fighting with each other on the sidelines. So the

1175
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:37,120
Speaker 1: Rams are steady, their veteran they have a really good offense.

1176
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 2: It's the turning point of their season, right, don't you

1177
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 2: feel the same way, it's the turning point of their season.

1178
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:44,960
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford doesn't get rattled like you said. We love Stafford,

1179
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 1: We've loved Kyrine Williams. Kyron Williams. Between the tackles is

1180
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:53,320
Speaker 1: really really good. So yeah, I think we still like

1181
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:56,680
Speaker 1: the Rams. Rams are on the list. Rams are on

1182
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 1: the list this week.

1183
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:01,760
Speaker 2: People are all our favorite see we can change.

1184
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: Yeah right, well, the Rems they may be dogs like

1185
01:00:04,760 --> 01:00:08,640
Speaker 1: we don't know yet, that's true. Detroit a green Bay

1186
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 1: we haven't had, as Simon says, yet Detroit a green Bay.

1187
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 1: Green Bay is plus three and a half. Obviously. Jordan

1188
01:00:14,760 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 1: Love is the question here. He's day to day with

1189
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 1: a grin growing injury. Shout out Sam Malone to all

1190
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 1: the old heads out there.

1191
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 3: My guy like me who knows what it's like to

1192
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 3: have it grownn.

1193
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 1: If not for that, we would want to bet green Bay.

1194
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: Perfect fates bought for the Lions. They just dropped fifty two,

1195
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: one of the two best teams in the NFL, the

1196
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:42,800
Speaker 1: best ATS team in a generation. They're outside, which isn't

1197
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 1: a strength for them. The public loves them. Part of

1198
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 1: me says, we don't even wait for the news on

1199
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 1: Love like, here we go, maybe we get the Packers

1200
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 1: at the biggest number we can.

1201
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 2: Simon says, right now, packers plus three and a half.

1202
01:00:57,800 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 2: Sim says, do it? We say.

1203
01:01:02,720 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 1: Wow?

1204
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:07,600
Speaker 2: And honestly, it's because the MRI came back negative this year.

1205
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 2: As I saw that news, I was just there's no

1206
01:01:10,400 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 2: way unless Jordan Love's really that banged up he misses

1207
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 2: this game. Like people don't understand how insane a competitor

1208
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:18,560
Speaker 2: a lot of these people are. And Jordan Loves right

1209
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 2: up there. Whether he is so competitive you think he

1210
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,240
Speaker 2: wants to miss this game where he knows this is

1211
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:26,560
Speaker 2: going to decide the division, Like this is a must

1212
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 2: win for Green Bay if they want to win this division,

1213
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 2: must win. And you nailed it, Detroit. How can we

1214
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 2: Is there a team we could sell higher on right now?

1215
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 2: This is like the peak of all peaks, Like they've

1216
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 2: been incredible. Everything's clicking. They're the best team in football,

1217
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 2: they have the best offensive football. People know we are

1218
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 2: not doting that any way. This is the game where

1219
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 2: Aiden Hudgerson not being there matters. This is the difference.

1220
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 2: And you know, to me, there's a way to attack

1221
01:01:54,800 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 2: this Detroit defense. And that's why I don't mind if

1222
01:01:57,640 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 2: it's Malik Willis, because it is the run game. If

1223
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 2: it is him and they're having to do that read

1224
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 2: option that he's done so perfectly this season. I mean,

1225
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,520
Speaker 2: whatever little Floor did with this kid, Like we talked

1226
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 2: about the time, how important coaching is. This right here

1227
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 2: is the definition of this kid was lost. He was

1228
01:02:13,120 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 2: out of the league pretty much. What do you get

1229
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 2: traded for seventh round pick to Green Bay and he's

1230
01:02:18,080 --> 01:02:20,439
Speaker 2: come in now. I think you can say even last

1231
01:02:20,440 --> 01:02:22,560
Speaker 2: week he counted for that win. He's won them three

1232
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 2: games this year, which.

1233
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 1: Is just he had a fifty one yard pass on

1234
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:28,919
Speaker 1: their drive. It's incredible he only threw for fifty six

1235
01:02:29,000 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 1: yards in the game.

1236
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:33,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, cause again the Floor knows that like this guy,

1237
01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 2: either you can scheme it up where he gets people open,

1238
01:02:36,360 --> 01:02:38,080
Speaker 2: or you can just do that read option. He's such

1239
01:02:38,080 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 2: a good runner that once he gets in there, it's

1240
01:02:40,720 --> 01:02:43,680
Speaker 2: just their offense takes on a whole different attitude. So

1241
01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:46,840
Speaker 2: I don't care who the quarterback is. I'm making, Sime says,

1242
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:49,600
Speaker 2: because I do think if Love is cleared by Thursday,

1243
01:02:49,600 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 2: I could easily see this number getting down to three

1244
01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 2: and not get off the ski number because, like we

1245
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 2: talk all the time, there's certain games every week that

1246
01:02:56,200 --> 01:02:58,960
Speaker 2: are trap games. This feels like a trap game, Like

1247
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:00,600
Speaker 2: the public is going to come in so heavy on

1248
01:03:00,600 --> 01:03:05,040
Speaker 2: this Detroit team without realizing that golf is different outdoors,

1249
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 2: this team's personality is different outdoors. And how much regression

1250
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 2: are they do for offensively? Like they can't keep this

1251
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 2: up statistically, It's impossible to keep doing what they've done.

1252
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 2: I mean, me and you have been around long enough,

1253
01:03:17,760 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 2: we know all the numbers. Teams just don't do what

1254
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,800
Speaker 2: they do every week. Right. Eventually they do come back

1255
01:03:22,840 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 2: down to earth, and this is the perfect prime spot

1256
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:28,520
Speaker 2: for that. So a nice by low spot on green Bay. Right,

1257
01:03:29,600 --> 01:03:31,160
Speaker 2: Betters are pissed off of them. I think they have

1258
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:33,600
Speaker 2: the same view as Chad of Like if you had

1259
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 2: that minus three and a half ticket last week on

1260
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:37,479
Speaker 2: Green Bay, you were pissed at this team. They should

1261
01:03:37,480 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 2: have won that game and every which way. That rookie

1262
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:42,200
Speaker 2: running back, I think he's a rookie. He laid down

1263
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 2: instead of walking it in. Right, Jaguars are gonna let

1264
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 2: him score a walk in touchdown. He was smart enough

1265
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 2: to lay down. Betters don't think that way. They're pissed off.

1266
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:52,560
Speaker 2: So not only does Detroit have a ton of love

1267
01:03:52,560 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 2: from the public side, they probably have some love from

1268
01:03:54,760 --> 01:03:56,520
Speaker 2: professional sides who are a little pissed off of this

1269
01:03:56,600 --> 01:03:59,440
Speaker 2: Green Bay team. And that's where I swoop in. Now

1270
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 2: I am pissed. This number did get up to four

1271
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 2: four and a half and a couple of books, and

1272
01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:06,240
Speaker 2: we saw after the Mri Jordan love it moved the

1273
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:08,160
Speaker 2: whole point. It came back down to this number here

1274
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: at three and a half. So obviously wish we had

1275
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:14,040
Speaker 2: gotten the best possible number four and a half. I'm

1276
01:04:14,080 --> 01:04:15,600
Speaker 2: still so happy taking this at three and a half.

1277
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:17,640
Speaker 2: I make this number two and a half, So getting

1278
01:04:17,640 --> 01:04:20,000
Speaker 2: a full point of value, especially it costs two key

1279
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 2: numbers and this type of matchup, I love this for us,

1280
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 2: for listeners, it's just this is what this show is

1281
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 2: built on. Bet in this type of spot here where

1282
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 2: we know comes Sunday, it's going to be ninety percent

1283
01:04:32,560 --> 01:04:35,680
Speaker 2: of the money, ninety percent of the tickets all on Detroit.

1284
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,760
Speaker 2: The sports books need Green Bay to have a winning day,

1285
01:04:38,800 --> 01:04:41,760
Speaker 2: all that nonsense, But that's the stuff we ling into

1286
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:43,440
Speaker 2: you because we're getting a free point of value here.

1287
01:04:43,560 --> 01:04:46,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love green Bay in this spot.

1288
01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 1: Your enthusiasm is infectious. I hope the line doesn't move

1289
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:53,000
Speaker 1: so much before off the air that I can't get

1290
01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:56,360
Speaker 1: this number. But we're green Bay three and a half.

1291
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 1: Simon says, green Bay plus three and a half. Time

1292
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:01,919
Speaker 1: to fade the boys from Village City, who we love,

1293
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:05,040
Speaker 1: no disrespect. I think they're going to the super Bowl.

1294
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:07,000
Speaker 2: We're just riding the waves.

1295
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:10,560
Speaker 1: Riding the wave Indian Minnesota, Minnesota's six point favorite.

1296
01:05:12,120 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 3: Heads up quick producer's note. This was recorded just before

1297
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:21,440
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco was announced the indie starter for Sunday, so

1298
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:25,360
Speaker 3: it will not be Anthony Richardson. It should be Joe

1299
01:05:25,440 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 3: Flacco under center. So just be advised during this conversation.

1300
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 1: I don't really have a read on this one yet. No, no,

1301
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 1: oh my god.

1302
01:05:36,320 --> 01:05:39,440
Speaker 2: Gotta love the vikings here. Anthony Richardson against Brian Flores.

1303
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 2: Holy shit, talk about a mismatch. Terrible, terrible matchup for

1304
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:46,680
Speaker 2: this Colt team. And it's funny too, because I know

1305
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:49,320
Speaker 2: some professionals who love the Colts. They've come in on

1306
01:05:49,320 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 2: the Colts. They like the number. They think Minnesota is

1307
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:54,960
Speaker 2: about to go right down the other side of the hill. Right,

1308
01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:56,919
Speaker 2: they rode the hill all the way up. Now they're

1309
01:05:56,960 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 2: ready to fade this Minnesota team and come back down

1310
01:05:59,240 --> 01:06:02,680
Speaker 2: their side. So I'm getting a Minnesota team awful loss

1311
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:05,959
Speaker 2: with extra time against a quarterback that has the same

1312
01:06:05,960 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 2: completion percentage as who's a Ryan fucking Leaf names you

1313
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 2: were given out last week and again if you go

1314
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:14,200
Speaker 2: throw the tape on though, Anthey, Richard is not as

1315
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:16,160
Speaker 2: bad as people perceive, Like a lot of this stuff

1316
01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:19,400
Speaker 2: is out of his control, but he is bad, Like

1317
01:06:19,440 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 2: there is no denying that he is bad. Right now,

1318
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:23,280
Speaker 2: and me and you talk coming to the year, this

1319
01:06:23,360 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 2: is this kid's rookie year. I know it's not to

1320
01:06:24,920 --> 01:06:27,920
Speaker 2: say that on paper, but it is. He just needs

1321
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 2: more repetition, more starts.

1322
01:06:29,600 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 1: Only.

1323
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:32,840
Speaker 2: That's why people calling for Joe Flacco the cults are

1324
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:34,600
Speaker 2: not trying to just win this year. They're trying to

1325
01:06:34,600 --> 01:06:36,560
Speaker 2: win for the next ten years. It does no good

1326
01:06:36,600 --> 01:06:39,080
Speaker 2: to s Anthony Richardson. You need him to suffer and

1327
01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:41,560
Speaker 2: go through these reps. This is a game he's gonna

1328
01:06:41,560 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 2: need to suffer through. Like I just I can't imagine

1329
01:06:44,440 --> 01:06:46,400
Speaker 2: him trying to deal with everything Brian Floors is gonna

1330
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 2: throw at him. In this matchup, especially with extra time

1331
01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 2: to prepare. So this number is a number I'm not

1332
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 2: gonna rush to bet just because I know there are

1333
01:06:54,360 --> 01:06:56,920
Speaker 2: professional smart groups out there coming in on Minnesota, but

1334
01:06:57,400 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 2: I mean on the Colts. But if this does dip

1335
01:06:59,720 --> 01:07:01,840
Speaker 2: the five five and a half at any book, I'm

1336
01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:03,720
Speaker 2: gonna grab it right away on Minnesota. I just I

1337
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,040
Speaker 2: like them in this spot, like the number, and like

1338
01:07:06,080 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 2: the matchup for them, especially offensively. They can not only

1339
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:11,240
Speaker 2: run the run the ball down this Colt Steam's throat.

1340
01:07:11,640 --> 01:07:13,560
Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to scheme guys open. We know

1341
01:07:13,640 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 2: this Colts defense is not that well like no, I

1342
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:18,760
Speaker 2: mean last week they had guys open. It was just CJ.

1343
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:20,800
Speaker 2: Not that he was flustered. He was just kind of

1344
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:23,800
Speaker 2: missing guys right, That was just a game that he

1345
01:07:23,880 --> 01:07:26,960
Speaker 2: wasn't in his best debt. So I know it's it's

1346
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:29,200
Speaker 2: tough for me to take someone that's such a big

1347
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:31,400
Speaker 2: favorite in this type of spot. But I am I

1348
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:33,640
Speaker 2: uncomfortable just because of floor is in this defense.

1349
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:36,240
Speaker 1: See the reason why I had no read on it

1350
01:07:36,280 --> 01:07:42,240
Speaker 1: is because the Colt rush offense is so elite, yeah,

1351
01:07:42,440 --> 01:07:46,120
Speaker 1: so dominant. I worry that they'll just figure out ways

1352
01:07:46,160 --> 01:07:48,640
Speaker 1: to keep the ball out of Richardson's hands, and we.

1353
01:07:48,640 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 2: Talk about it's Minnesot's weakness, right running the ball down there. Running.

1354
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 1: That's that's why I'm sort of like something here, like

1355
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:58,560
Speaker 1: Minnesota struggling. They're getting exposed a little bit.

1356
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 2: They are. We we talked. I don't if you're talking

1357
01:08:01,000 --> 01:08:05,560
Speaker 2: about about other guys, but Minnesota. You've probably seen this

1358
01:08:05,680 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 2: them on script. Sam Darnold offensively is incredible, right, That's

1359
01:08:10,200 --> 01:08:13,160
Speaker 2: why they've been dominating these first quarters. Once it goes

1360
01:08:13,200 --> 01:08:15,960
Speaker 2: off script, we've seen them kind of struggle now these

1361
01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:18,160
Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. So I get where're coming from

1362
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:20,240
Speaker 2: with that. But my whole view of is if we

1363
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 2: can get the Viking scene we've known this year and

1364
01:08:22,320 --> 01:08:25,640
Speaker 2: they get up ten to nothing or fourteen nothing, that

1365
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 2: to me, that would be game over because by then

1366
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 2: the Colts would have to ban their run. So you're

1367
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:31,519
Speaker 2: right for your hesitation here. Obviously, there's other favorites I

1368
01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:33,800
Speaker 2: like more. It's just it's rare for me to really

1369
01:08:33,840 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 2: like a big favorite like this, and I do like

1370
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 2: Minnesota in the.

1371
01:08:36,120 --> 01:08:39,360
Speaker 1: Spot Tampa Bay visiting Kansas City. Kansas City is a

1372
01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:43,519
Speaker 1: nine point favorite all I'll say, is I like the

1373
01:08:43,520 --> 01:08:43,960
Speaker 1: Bucks here?

1374
01:08:44,560 --> 01:08:46,600
Speaker 2: Yeah? I know. I don't want to do it to

1375
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:48,200
Speaker 2: our fans, though I don't know if I can do

1376
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 2: it to them and make them take this one. Because

1377
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 2: I was getting a lot of messages about the Raider,

1378
01:08:52,560 --> 01:08:54,639
Speaker 2: especially when they were down by fourteen and people are

1379
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 2: just losing their mind. I just said, be patient, we'll

1380
01:08:57,200 --> 01:08:58,640
Speaker 2: get there. But in the back of mine, I was like,

1381
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:01,479
Speaker 2: are we gonna get there? I'm banking a lot on

1382
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:04,559
Speaker 2: Gordon Minshew here to get us there. Sam goes for

1383
01:09:04,600 --> 01:09:08,559
Speaker 2: this Bucks matchup. We know the deal, like they're a

1384
01:09:08,560 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 2: totally different team without Mike Evans. We saw it last

1385
01:09:10,840 --> 01:09:13,240
Speaker 2: week and Baker can only do so much. You can

1386
01:09:13,280 --> 01:09:14,760
Speaker 2: only run the ball so much. I throw it to

1387
01:09:14,760 --> 01:09:17,360
Speaker 2: your running backs and tight end so much. So I

1388
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:19,160
Speaker 2: don't know. Check the number is huge. I'm with you

1389
01:09:19,240 --> 01:09:21,479
Speaker 2: that it's too big. I make it seven. It's eight

1390
01:09:21,520 --> 01:09:23,080
Speaker 2: and a half. So yes, I'll be on the Bucks.

1391
01:09:23,120 --> 01:09:25,280
Speaker 2: But I just I cannot make this one of our five.

1392
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna have to discuss it again

1393
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:31,160
Speaker 1: on Thursday. To me, the big difference, like I don't

1394
01:09:31,160 --> 01:09:33,880
Speaker 1: want to be fooled by what Baker did against the

1395
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 1: Falcons when they can't get any pressure, and so he

1396
01:09:38,280 --> 01:09:41,679
Speaker 1: has sort of those safety valves to the running backs,

1397
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:43,960
Speaker 1: to the tight end. Kate Atton had an amazing game.

1398
01:09:45,640 --> 01:09:51,720
Speaker 1: The Chiefs defensive backs much better than the Falcons. The

1399
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:56,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs pressure much much better than the Falcons. They're getting

1400
01:09:56,120 --> 01:09:59,760
Speaker 1: John Uja from the Patriots. So like, there are things

1401
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 1: that bring me hesitation. So I don't want to get

1402
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:06,160
Speaker 1: too enthusiastic about the Bucks, but from a number side,

1403
01:10:06,160 --> 01:10:07,800
Speaker 1: it's it's the Bucks or nothing.

1404
01:10:09,000 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 2: It is. But again, it's another game where if you

1405
01:10:11,120 --> 01:10:14,120
Speaker 2: if you just tease the Chiefs down, I feel like

1406
01:10:14,160 --> 01:10:15,559
Speaker 2: that's just a smarter move.

1407
01:10:15,479 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 1: In this one is you know what. I'm not even

1408
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 1: gonna put it on the list for Thursday. Good it's

1409
01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 1: off the list. We got ten other games we can

1410
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:26,200
Speaker 1: talk about on Thursday. Simon says, is Green Bay plus

1411
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:28,479
Speaker 1: three and a half get it before Jordan Love is

1412
01:10:28,479 --> 01:10:32,160
Speaker 1: officially confirmed as playing. Even if he's not, we still

1413
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:35,679
Speaker 1: like it. We both like it. Exec Decision Buffalo Bills

1414
01:10:36,000 --> 01:10:39,080
Speaker 1: taken onto a in Buffalo minus six if you can

1415
01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:42,320
Speaker 1: get it. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

1416
01:10:42,360 --> 01:10:44,760
Speaker 1: by bet three sixty five and now new Bet three

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Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,

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Speaker 1: and more or whatever the moment. It's never ordinary at

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older

1424
01:11:04,680 --> 01:11:08,839
Speaker 1: in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

1425
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

1426
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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Simon

1428
01:11:20,479 --> 01:11:22,600
Speaker 1: and I will return with the next episode of The

1429
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:26,400
Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, eleven a m.

1430
01:11:26,520 --> 01:11:31,400
Speaker 1: Eastern to cover our week nine best bets. Downloads some Spotify,

1431
01:11:31,439 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 1: Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe,

1432
01:11:34,600 --> 01:11:37,760
Speaker 1: use five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

1433
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:49,679
Speaker 1: Until next time, Love you. Action Network reminds you please

1434
01:11:49,720 --> 01:11:53,120
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

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