1 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: With the twenty twenty four US presidential election already picking up, 2 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: we're once again hearing big promises from the candidates about 3 00:00:10,880 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: how they'll make life better for you. Guessed it, the 4 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: all important middle class. 5 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: The working class, the middle class. That's who built this country. 6 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 3: And by the way, the middle class build American and 7 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 3: unions built the middle class. 8 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 4: Look at the economy. The Biden administration is doing all 9 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 4: it can to make it harder for the average family 10 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 4: to make ends meet and to attain and maintain a 11 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 4: middle class lifestyle. The bill for the massive borrowing, spending 12 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 4: and debt and record printing of money by the Fed 13 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 4: that's falling on the American people. 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Senior writer Sean Dunnan is back on the show 15 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 1: today to tell us why the middle class isn't necessarily 16 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: such an easy group to pin down or pander to. 17 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 2: The American middle class is one hundred million outs, and 18 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: we often talk about those folks as a kind of 19 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 2: amorphous mass that all share these common traits, and it's 20 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 2: an incredibly diverse population. It's black and white and Latino. 21 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 2: It's older, it's younger, it's a Republican, it's Democrat, it's 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 2: increasingly independent. 23 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: Sean and a team of reporters went out to speak 24 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,040 Speaker 1: to middle class voters about their lives and how their 25 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 1: circumstances will influence who gets their vote. 26 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 5: I've never needed to be the wealthiest person, but I 27 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,040 Speaker 5: need to have enough that I feel secure. 28 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 6: And I have still one child in college. We assist 29 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 6: her with school in housing. I just don't know how 30 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 6: much longer I can do that with prices going up. 31 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: I'm Wescasova today on the Big Take. What does the 32 00:01:53,480 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: middle class really want? Sean. Good to see you again. 33 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 2: It's so wonderful to be here. 34 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 1: So on our very first show, you and I were 35 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 1: talking about the fortunes of the American middle class, and 36 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: we're back again talking about it eight months later. What's 37 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: changed because you've been doing quite a bit of work 38 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: on this. 39 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 2: So we're spending a lot of time looking at what 40 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 2: we think of as the economic health of the American 41 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 2: middle class. And that American middle class is those one 42 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: hundred million people, those hundred million adults who make between 43 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 2: forty five thousand dollars and one hundred and eighty five 44 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: thousand dollars a year or so, and who have wealth 45 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: of just under one hundred thousand dollars in assets to 46 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 2: just over a million dollars in assets. We think that 47 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: covers a pretty good portion of the American economy, and 48 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 2: that's a portion of the American economy that is being 49 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 2: hit by a number of different factors over the last 50 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: year or the last couple of years really through the pandemic. 51 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 2: One is the inflation we've all been watching and feeling. 52 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 2: But they're also being hit by the reaction from the 53 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 2: Federal Reserve in raising interest rates to that inflation as well, 54 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 2: which has hit their wealth, and it's hitting the cost 55 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: of their debt. In that American middle class, as we 56 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: all probably know, has a lot of debt, whether it's 57 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 2: in the form of mortgages, car payments, credit card balances, 58 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 2: or student loans. And so we're watching this American middle 59 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 2: class closely get buffeted by this end of an era. 60 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 2: And that's the end of an era of easy money, 61 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 2: low interest rates that have made life pretty good for 62 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 2: the American middle class for over a decade. 63 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: And even in the time since we last talked about this, 64 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: these wins that are buffeting the middle classes you describe it, 65 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: have picked up and you found some pretty significant increases 66 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: in just what it costs to live. We're all kind 67 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: of feeling it, but you've put numbers on it. Can 68 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: you give us a picture of that. 69 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: The American middle class, the average household in that middle 70 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: class spend eight thousand dollars more each year than they 71 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 2: did before the pandemic on household spending. And that's not 72 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 2: just because it was easy spending and times were good. 73 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 2: A lot of that was on items you can't escape, 74 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 2: like transportation. The cost of owning a car last year 75 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 2: hit over ten thousand dollars annually when you factor in 76 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 2: car payments, insurance, maintenance, ands on. It's according to triple. 77 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: A and that's the first time ever. 78 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 2: That's the first time ever. It's cross that lot the 79 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: median house. If you want to go out and buy 80 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 2: it today. Before in twenty twenty one, that would have 81 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 2: cost you a monthly payment about twelve hundred dollars. That's 82 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 2: not twenty four hundred dollars. That's a doubling in the 83 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 2: monthly payment that we've seen as interest rates have gone up. 84 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 2: We've seen the Federal Reserve and its most dramatic tightening 85 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 2: raising of interest rates since the nineteen eighties. In response 86 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 2: to inflation that was at its highest level in forty years. 87 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:09,840 Speaker 2: It makes sense, but you know, you can talk about 88 00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:12,360 Speaker 2: that in these kind of vague terms that make economic sense, 89 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 2: but when you bring it down to the household level, 90 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 2: there were just all of these costs. The household budgets 91 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:21,719 Speaker 2: have just been reordered, and that's really hard to escape. 92 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: And we've talked quite a bit on the show about 93 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 1: how hard it is to find an affordable place to live, 94 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: whether you're renting or buying a house. And one thing 95 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: your research also showed is that how people are taking 96 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 1: money out of their houses. 97 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: Again, right, so we're seeing people tap their home equity again. 98 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 2: Over the last ten fifteen years, a lot of American 99 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 2: middle class families that own homes have made a lot 100 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 2: in terms of home equity, and they were refinancing during 101 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 2: the pandemic. Well, now as costs have risen and they're 102 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 2: trying to keep the household running and pay for new 103 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 2: expenses like kids going off to college, or healthcare expenses 104 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 2: or maintenance on the house, they're tapping that equity at 105 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 2: a much higher level. And that is some people think 106 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 2: often a sign of financial stress. 107 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: And in recent years, people were able to offset some 108 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: of these pressures because their investments were doing well. The 109 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,600 Speaker 1: marcus were really high, and that too has given us 110 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: all a reality check. 111 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:25,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, the American middle class was getting wealthier 112 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 2: over the last fifteen years in a really dramatic way. 113 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 2: In fact, in a pretty historic way. Over the last 114 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 2: year and a bit. Since the Federal Reserve started raising 115 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 2: the interest rates in March twenty twenty two, the American 116 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,160 Speaker 2: middle class has lost somewhere between two and three trillion 117 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 2: dollars in wealth as an overall class. That's those hundred 118 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 2: million people. Bring that down to the individual level, and 119 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 2: that's somewhere between twenty five and thirty thousand dollars in 120 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 2: lost wealth over that time, which is significant if you're 121 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 2: talking about adults that are earning between forty five and 122 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 2: one hundred eight thousand dollars a year. It's a big 123 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: chunk to take. People say that's paper wealth. Well, paper 124 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 2: wealth is also what you borrow against, right, It's also 125 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: the thing that helps you finance the longer term investments 126 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 2: like your kid's education. So many American families draw on 127 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 2: home equity and their wealth to pay for their kids college, 128 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 2: for example. 129 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: And to add to this, list of challenges is also 130 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: that we're starting to see more layoffs across industries, whereas 131 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: in the last several years that job market has been 132 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: incredibly strong. 133 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 2: If you believe the economists, we are on the cusp 134 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 2: of what's very likely to be a recession, certainly a 135 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 2: slowing in the economy. Whether we actually get a contraction, 136 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 2: we don't know yet, but we're starting to see layoffs 137 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 2: in the tech sector, in finance, anything associated with mortgages. 138 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 2: We are starting to see manufacturers do some laying off 139 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 2: as well. And we've just described until now, you know, 140 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 2: their rising household costs, that decline and wealth. That's all 141 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 2: in the past. What's ahead is pretty frightening as well, 142 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 2: potentially or anxiety inducing certainly for the American middle class. 143 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 2: And that's a possible recession, possibility of job losses. And 144 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: one of the features we've seen in these job losses, 145 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 2: a lot of them have been white collar jobs so far. 146 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: And so here we are talking about this now at 147 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: the very beginning of another long, contentious presidential election, and 148 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: that gives it an extra layer of urgency too. 149 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 2: Absolutely, Look, there's an economic reason we're interested in the 150 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 2: American middle class. Those hundred million adults are at the 151 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 2: center of a consumer driven US economy. There are the 152 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 2: people out there in the shops making the big purchases. 153 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 2: They keep the American economy humming along. Those hundred million 154 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 2: adults are also at the core of the American electorate. 155 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 2: How they feel about the economy and how they feel 156 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 2: about whether it's Joe Biden's manager of the economy and 157 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: his vision for the economy, or whether it's his Republican 158 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 2: opponent's dueling vision for the American economy. That is going 159 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: to be one of the fundamental issues in this campaign. 160 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:13,400 Speaker 2: So it's one of the reasons we're going to be 161 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 2: tracking the American middle class from here to forever. 162 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,200 Speaker 1: I feel like, let's talk about what you did in 163 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: a story, which was to take these big economic numbers 164 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: and bring them to a personal level by talking to 165 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: individual Americans in the middle class and what their experience 166 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: has been like. 167 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 2: We are, and we're going to be running this through 168 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:38,679 Speaker 2: the election next year. Have teamed up with Harris the Posters, 169 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 2: and they are running out a poll every quarter for us, 170 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 2: and we're able with their cooperation to target this actual 171 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:48,480 Speaker 2: middle class, to make it a poll of the middle class, 172 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 2: not just of the broader electorate or registered voters, which 173 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 2: most posters do, and working with Harris, we've also been 174 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 2: able to link up with some of these people that 175 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 2: they're talking to. We did about two dozen interviews with 176 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 2: people in the middle class. We're also bringing in people 177 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 2: who we as reporters have met along the way. We've 178 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 2: spent a lot of time on the road. We've all 179 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 2: met characters in that middle class who we have stayed 180 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:13,959 Speaker 2: in touch with, and we're going to be coming back 181 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 2: to them and liaising with them. And look, you know, 182 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 2: the four people who we feature in this story are 183 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 2: really emblematic of a broader class, and there's a couple 184 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 2: of different themes that we can talk about. 185 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: And each of these people really exemplified one or more 186 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,640 Speaker 1: of these pressures that you were just talking about. 187 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,319 Speaker 2: As you go through the American middle class, everyone has 188 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 2: individual experience in terms of the Economist's part of the 189 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 2: reason we're reaching out to all these people. 190 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 3: Being middle class in America today is not the same 191 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 3: that it was ten years ago. 192 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 7: Middle class kind of tends sometimes to be in that 193 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,720 Speaker 7: range where you can afford some things, but you're still, 194 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 7: you know, not able to maybe get everything you want. 195 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,359 Speaker 2: We have been talking to folks in Florida and Minnesota 196 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 2: and up in Michigan and New York State, all over 197 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:06,480 Speaker 2: the country, and what we're trying very hard to do 198 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 2: is to make sure that we have diversity in terms 199 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 2: of not just politics there's Republicans, Democrats, and a whole 200 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 2: lot of independence out there right now, but also in 201 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 2: terms of race and age and so on. What's very 202 00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 2: clear when we talk about the American middle class and 203 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 2: we talk about this big population, is that there's a 204 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 2: lot of different factions within that mass. 205 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 1: After the break, what do middle class Americans themselves have 206 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 1: to say about all this? One of the middle class 207 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: Americans who tells about her experience in this story is 208 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: Lori Blumstein. Our Collie Claire Valentine spoke to her, and 209 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: let's listen to some of what she had to say. 210 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 3: My name is Laurie Blumstein. I'm sixty four years old. 211 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 3: Was born in Brooklyn, New York, but had been living 212 00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 3: in Florida for the last forty years. My main profession 213 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 3: for the last forty years was in the finance mortgage business. 214 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 3: Started out in banking as a tailer and worked my 215 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: way up and then was a mortgage loan processor and 216 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:21,080 Speaker 3: mortgage a loan closer. 217 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,600 Speaker 2: If you want to look at how the end of 218 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 2: this era of easy money is hitting the American middle class, 219 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 2: then Lawya is a pretty vivid example of that. She 220 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 2: is white retiree in Florida. She was laid off last 221 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 2: August from her job working in the mortgage industry because 222 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: the mortgage industry just shut down, essentially. 223 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: Something that nobody would have thought just a few years ago. 224 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and you know, even just a year before that 225 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 2: was really booming. She's gone from living on a salary 226 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 2: of roughly one hundred thousand dollars a year to living 227 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 2: on just under two thousand dollars a month in Social 228 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 2: Security payments. 229 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 3: So security is the greatest thing to live on and 230 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,199 Speaker 3: healthcare is not the greatest to have. Once I finally 231 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 3: can get on healthcare, that is. 232 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 2: She's moved out of a three bedroom house into a 233 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 2: smaller condo. She has reset her life in a very 234 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 2: different way. She's loved to get back to work, but 235 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 2: she says, I only know one thing, and that's the 236 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 2: mortgage industry, and right now it's in the toilet. 237 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: And yet what I found interesting about her story too, 238 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: was that she felt like even though her fortunes had 239 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 1: changed dramatically, she still felt like she was okay and 240 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: plans to take a couple of cruises this year. 241 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: And that's kind of crucial thing that we need to 242 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,560 Speaker 2: keep in mind as we talk about the American middle class. Right, 243 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 2: being a member of the American middle class means having 244 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 2: a measure of economic security. It means that when tough 245 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 2: times hit, you have an ability to write it out. 246 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 2: And Laurie has reset her life, but she also has 247 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 2: plenty stashed away so she can have those cruises and 248 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:55,319 Speaker 2: has a fairly comfortable life. 249 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: And Sean Lourie Blumstein is, it's just one of many people. 250 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: You say, you spoke to it, and you tried to 251 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: get a pretty diverse cross section of American middle class people. 252 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: Absolutely, the American middle class is one hundred million adults, 253 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 2: and we often talk about those folks as a kind 254 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 2: of a morphous mass that all share these common traits, 255 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 2: and it's an incredibly diverse population. It's black and white 256 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 2: and Latino, it's older, it's younger. It's a Republican, it's democrat, 257 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 2: it's increasingly independent. So we are trying very hard to 258 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 2: make sure that we hear from all the different factions 259 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 2: within that middle class. 260 00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 1: Sean. Another person in the story is Ron Davis, and 261 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: you spoke to him. What did he have to say? 262 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,000 Speaker 2: Ron Davis is a white man married to a black woman, 263 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 2: living in the suburbs of Minneapolis. He is a business executive, 264 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 2: and he's a business executive whose fortunes really tell the 265 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 2: story of the last few years for the American middle class. 266 00:14:58,680 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 1: And here he is. 267 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 5: My name is Ron Davis, and my age is fifty five, 268 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 5: soon to be fifty six. 269 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:07,160 Speaker 2: And how do you feel about that? 270 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 5: Turned it's better than the alternative, So you know, it's 271 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 5: getting old is not necessarily fun, but it beats not 272 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 5: getting old. 273 00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 2: He used to run the loyalty program for North and 274 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 2: South America at Radison, the hotel group. When the pandemic hit, 275 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 2: he was laid off from them. At the end of 276 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, for the first time in his career. 277 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: He found himself unemployed and looking for a job, and 278 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 2: he was a pandemic victim. Well, he found a job 279 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 2: in the tech industry. He found a job with GoDaddy, 280 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 2: where he was running a loyalty program for them. And 281 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 2: in February this year, he was told that he had 282 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 2: been laid off by them as well, so he's a 283 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 2: victim of tech layoffs as well. 284 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 5: Loyalty is not just about customers to a brand and 285 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 5: brand love. Loyalty's also about employees, because no one's going 286 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 5: to be loyal to a brand that their employees aren't happy. 287 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 2: Ron is a relentlessly cheery person. Despite all of this, 288 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 2: he will also tell you that he's been lucky and 289 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 2: that he's managed to stash some money away over time. 290 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 2: He and his wife, he'll tell you, slightly sheepishly, drive 291 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 2: his and hers Mercedes. They just bought their twenty one 292 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 2: year old daughter a Mini. They are in a pretty 293 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 2: comfortable place as well. But what's interesting with Ron is 294 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 2: when you talk with him, you also get a sense he's, 295 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 2: for the first time in his career, perhaps encountered the 296 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 2: vulnerability that's there in the American middle class. 297 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 5: Middle class. To me, I guess I would define it 298 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 5: as somebody who is able to have shelter and food 299 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 5: and healthcare and those those type of things and be 300 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 5: able to afford it, but not to the point that 301 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 5: they're no longer worried about money. 302 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 2: At all, it's been an uncomfortable few years for him, 303 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 2: as a man in his fifties being laid off in 304 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 2: an economy that tends to trend younger. 305 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 5: I kind of tested retirement at this time and found 306 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 5: that it's not necessarily for me for a couple of reasons. 307 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 5: One is I think I would drive my wife nuts, 308 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 5: and then second of all, I think I still have 309 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 5: more to give and more to give back. 310 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: Let's talk about another person too, and that's Mail Mills. 311 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 2: In many ways, he is emblematic a certain new black 312 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 2: professional middle class that we're seeing in America. 313 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 1: Our Kellie Claire also spoke to him. 314 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 7: My name is Mail Mills. I'm thirty seven years old 315 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 7: from Detroit, and I'm a digital marketer. I'm also an author, 316 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 7: so going to be doing a lot of promotion for 317 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 7: a coming book launch. 318 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 2: If you talk to him again, you scratch the surface. 319 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 2: He's watched his investments take a hit this year. 320 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 7: I think being middle class in America today means being 321 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 7: able to afford a kind of a certain lifestyle, right, 322 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 7: and so you're in the better neighborhoods with the better schools, 323 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 7: Maybe you have a degree or things of that nature. 324 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 7: A fence, a nicer car, certain amenities, and certainly in 325 00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:13,800 Speaker 7: terms of just economically, probably not living paycheck to paycheck. 326 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 2: He will tell you that his grocery bill each month 327 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 2: is hired and it's ever been. And he will also 328 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 2: talk through how he uses five or six different credit 329 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 2: cards to make ends meet each month and to keep 330 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 2: the household running. 331 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: You also spoke to a retired former police officer in Texas. 332 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 1: Let's listen to what she had to say. 333 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 6: My name is Tammy Reno and I'm fifty six years old. 334 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 6: I am from Temple, Texas. I retired after thirty years 335 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 6: in law enforcement. 336 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 2: She's a white woman, a retiree who lives in Granbury, Texas, 337 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 2: which is in the outskirts of Fort Worth, with her husband. 338 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 2: She is, I think it's fair to say, an out 339 00:18:56,000 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 2: and out Republican supporter of Donald Trump. And when she 340 00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,919 Speaker 2: talks about the economy, she does it through a partisan lens, 341 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:08,400 Speaker 2: but also when you think about her personal situation, She's 342 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 2: watched her retirement savings take a big hit in the 343 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 2: markets over the last couple of years. 344 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 6: The one thing that I feel the most on is 345 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 6: our retirements the stock market, and you know, our mutual 346 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 6: funds and things like that have gone way down. I 347 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 6: experienced over a twenty percent drop in my retirement funds, 348 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 6: and I'm worried about it. 349 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 2: She also talks about going out to the grocery store 350 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 2: and she's clipping coupons and looking to save and buying 351 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 2: in bulk and freezing lots of stuff. 352 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 6: We started changing some of our lifestyle. We don't travel 353 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 6: near as often, we don't eat out as often. I've 354 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 6: always been a thrifty person, which helped me save quite 355 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 6: a bit over the years. I was a single mother 356 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 6: that was imperative. What it means to me middle class 357 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 6: in America, I think is the middle class is getting squeezed. 358 00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 6: There's programs for people with less means, there's a lot 359 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 6: of tax cuts for you know. 360 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:16,440 Speaker 1: High earners. 361 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,679 Speaker 6: But in the middle we're having to pay all of 362 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 6: our taxes. We're having to you know, purchase groceries, We're 363 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 6: having to purchase gas, which it's going high in price. 364 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 2: She's someone who feels the squeeze in retirement and is 365 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 2: quite angry about it. 366 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: Then we come back, many fed up middle class voters 367 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: are ditching party affiliations and calling themselves independent Sean as 368 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 1: we talked about at this start. All the stories we're 369 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: hearing right now are going to prominently figure into people's 370 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: decisions about who to vote for in the twenty twenty 371 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: four presidential elections, Who to vote for for Congress. What 372 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 1: are you hearing about, how these different pressures people are 373 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: feeling are affecting the way they vote. 374 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 2: We're entering in a really interesting election in that Joe 375 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: Biden as president has pitched pretty much every policy that 376 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 2: he does, whether it's economic policy, industrial policy, even foreign policy, 377 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 2: has aimed at the American middle class and making sure 378 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 2: that it benefits the American class. American presidents are always 379 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 2: obsessed with the American middle class because the American middle 380 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 2: class tends to vote a little bit more than some 381 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 2: other classes. But Joe Biden is pretty unique in having 382 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 2: pitched his entire presidency as being about the American middle class. 383 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 2: Joe Biden, also, when you zero in on his economic policy, 384 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 2: has really tried very hard to rebuild American manufacturing through 385 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 2: industrial policy, to create incentives to have new electric vehicle plants, 386 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 2: new battery plants, semiconductor plants. All of those are aimed 387 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 2: at building, as he will tell you, new middle class jobs. 388 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 2: Into the American economy bringing home a lot of those 389 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 2: jobs that have been out sources, but those are also 390 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,040 Speaker 2: long term projects. A lot of those factories are being 391 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 2: built now, but they may not be in place before 392 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 2: the election. In many ways, the election in twenty twenty 393 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 2: four is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden 394 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 2: in the American middle class and how it's doing and 395 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 2: right now. If you look at how the American middle 396 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 2: class feels about the economy, the polls show that they're 397 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:40,400 Speaker 2: feeling pretty anxious. Our poll with Harris showed anxiety and 398 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,479 Speaker 2: stress topping the list of emotions for middle class folks 399 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 2: when they look out at the US economy. We also 400 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 2: see only about a third of middle class people that 401 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 2: we pull think that things are going to get better 402 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 2: in the year ahead in terms of their personal financial situation. 403 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 2: That's not a good starting point if you're a president 404 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,639 Speaker 2: who's pitching to the American middle class. There is a 405 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 2: partisan divide in that Republicans tend to view the economy 406 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 2: as being worse than and to be more stressed about 407 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 2: the economy than Democrats, but still only about forty percent 408 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 2: of Democrats say they think that things are going to 409 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 2: get it better in the yearhead Again, that's not a 410 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 2: great starting point for a Democratic president. What we hear 411 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 2: over and over again, also from people in the middle class, 412 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 2: is that they're waiting to make a judgment. Lourie Blumstein 413 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 2: will tell you that she is going to vote for 414 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 2: Joe Biden no matter what. Tammy Pearson will vote for 415 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: Donald Trump or whoever the Republican candidate is, no matter what. 416 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: But we also have a much bigger mass of independence 417 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 2: in America today. There's a Gallop Tracking poll that shows 418 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 2: that forty nine percent of Americans now identify as independents. 419 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 2: Used to be roughly a third Democrats, third independent, third Republicans. 420 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,480 Speaker 2: That's changed over the last few years. And that's true 421 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 2: of the middle class. And so we're going to wait 422 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 2: and see how they swing. It's too early to call it. 423 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 2: But this is the reason we are tracking the economic 424 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 2: health of the American middle class, because we know that 425 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,360 Speaker 2: American voters care about pocketbook and household budgets. 426 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 1: Well, what you said earlier is important. The idea that 427 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: despite the fact that people are uncertain about the economy, 428 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,639 Speaker 1: most Americans have hardened their views on who they blame 429 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: for almost anything. But it's that section in the middle. 430 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: And one person who I thought was really interesting was 431 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: mel Mills, who seem to have a very broad view 432 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 1: of who he might vote for. 433 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, and so does Ron Davis, by the way, you know, 434 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 2: and this is a you know, white man in the 435 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 2: suburbs of Minneapolis and the black man in the suburbs 436 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,600 Speaker 2: of Detroit, right, two very different people in different parts 437 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 2: of America, and both of whom feel disenchanted with the 438 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 2: regular parties and feel like the regular politicians, the Democrats 439 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 2: and Republicans aren't really speaking to the American middle class. 440 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: Which is really interesting because both of those parties are 441 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 2: trying very hard. 442 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: And both of them signal that they may not vote 443 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: for the ultimate Republican candidate or for Joe Biden, and 444 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: may go looking elsewhere. 445 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 2: Right, which is another thing that we may see in 446 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 2: terms of third party candidates popping up in the election 447 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 2: next year, and maybe they will bleed off some of 448 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 2: the votes from the middle class, which could have a 449 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 2: significant impact on the election. 450 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,879 Speaker 1: We've talked about several of the people you spoke to, 451 00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: but you spoke to many more. How do the politics 452 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 1: line up among people you're talking about? How many people 453 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,000 Speaker 1: are saying they don't want the Democrat or the Republican. 454 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 2: The common theme you hear from folks is the economy 455 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 2: and what I'm seeing and the squeeze that I'm feeling 456 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 2: is causing me to look harder at my political decisions. 457 00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,959 Speaker 2: The second thing you hear is I haven't made up 458 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 2: my mind yet. You hear that a lot. I'm going 459 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,640 Speaker 2: to wait and see who the Republicans decide on as 460 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 2: a candidate. And then the third thing you hear is 461 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 2: just this anxiety and stress about the economy and frustration 462 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,200 Speaker 2: out there. There's a lot of policies being aimed at them, 463 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:07,280 Speaker 2: but the middle class doesn't necessarily think it's feeling the benefits. 464 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: The old cliche in American politics was always that people 465 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 1: vote their pocket books. That if the economy is good, 466 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 1: the incumbent wins. The economy is bad, they try somebody else. 467 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: But lately, with culture wars and other issues coming to 468 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,960 Speaker 1: the fore, that's not so true anymore. That sometimes people 469 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 1: will actively vote against their economic interest because a candidate 470 00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 1: is attractive to them for another reason. 471 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, now, looking absolutely like I'm an economics reporter at 472 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:36,199 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News, a financial news service, I am conscious of 473 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:37,920 Speaker 2: the fact that I spend a lot more time thinking 474 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 2: about the economy and economics and all of that data 475 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 2: than a lot of people do, and that there are 476 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 2: other issues out there. And we certainly saw that in 477 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 2: the midterm elections right where a lot of people thought 478 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 2: that inflation was going to fuel a red wave that 479 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 2: was going to see the Republicans seize control of Congress, 480 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 2: possibly even the Senate. That didn't happen. Why didn't it 481 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 2: happen because these culture wars and other issues like abortion rights, 482 00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 2: guns even enter the debate, and so we certainly are 483 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 2: likely to see that next year. 484 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 1: So ultimately, do you think that all of these things 485 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: we're talking about are the thing that swing the election 486 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 1: or is it just one important thing that goes into 487 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 1: a big swirling pot. And it's hard to tell whether 488 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 1: the economy will be one of the most important things 489 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:28,480 Speaker 1: that people make their choice on. 490 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 2: I'm going to vote for the big swirling pot. But 491 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 2: I also think that in some ways, the economy is 492 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 2: the stock, it's the broth, it's the foundation of that soup. 493 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: And of course, Sean, we're talking about the picture that 494 00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 1: we have in front of us now, and one of 495 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 1: the reasons you're tracking this over time is it could 496 00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 1: look very different a few months from now if we 497 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 1: should go into a recession. 498 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 2: We've already seen the story shift from household budgets and 499 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 2: the impact of inflation on how househole budgets to now 500 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,679 Speaker 2: the impact of the fight against inflation and those higher 501 00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:08,560 Speaker 2: interest rates on household budgets, whether it's mortgage payments, auto payments, 502 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 2: credit card payments, student loans, and so on. And I 503 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,040 Speaker 2: think the next shift that we're going to see, we're 504 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 2: likely to see is the impact of a slowing economy 505 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 2: and what many economists still expect could be a recession 506 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 2: either in the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three or 507 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 2: the first half of twenty twenty four, that election year, 508 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 2: and that is going to change the picture for the 509 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,640 Speaker 2: middle class. Yet again, one of the numbers I really 510 00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 2: keep in mind is one percent, and that is a 511 00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 2: one percent shift in the unemployment rate equals one point 512 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 2: six million people in the US losing their jobs. We 513 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 2: are now at historic lows in terms of unemployment, around 514 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 2: three to three and a half percent. If we shift 515 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 2: to four and a half five percent, maybe even five 516 00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 2: and a half six percent, we're going to see millions 517 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 2: of people lose their jobs. What we've seen so far 518 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 2: is that a lot of those people have been white collar, 519 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,120 Speaker 2: middle class workers, and we may see a lot more 520 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 2: of that to. 521 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 1: Come, Sean, Just so you don't leave us in despair, 522 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:13,760 Speaker 1: is there another scenario? 523 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the other scenario is that the US economy 524 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 2: does what it has done so far, it's fair to 525 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 2: say it this year, and that it's been remarkably resilient, 526 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 2: and that the labor market and the jobs picture for 527 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 2: a lot of folks holds up, and that we emerge 528 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 2: next year from the pandemic and the economic damage that 529 00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 2: we've seen and all of the turmoil that we've seen 530 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 2: in a much happier place, both of the American middle 531 00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 2: class and for America as a whole. 532 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 1: Sean, I was great to talk to you. Thanks for 533 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: coming on the show. 534 00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:52,200 Speaker 2: It's always wonderful to be here. 535 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to us here at the Big Take. 536 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 1: It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. For more 537 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 1: shows from my Heart Radio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, 538 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 539 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: Email us questions or comments to Big Take. At Bloomberg 540 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,480 Speaker 1: dot Net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is 541 00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 1: Vicky Bergolina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Rebecca Shasson 542 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: is our producer. Our associate producer is Sam Gebauer. Raphael 543 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,239 Speaker 1: mcili is our engineer. Our original music was composed by 544 00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,960 Speaker 1: Leo Sidron. I'm West Kasova. We'll be back tomorrow with 545 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: another Big Take.