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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? No running again? So smoothe so sweet, slipid.

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Speaker 2: Sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that? Shop with mind? Good buddy, and

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Speaker 4: that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drilled bibus how old Earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens? Helloy one and welcome back to Wondergo

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Speaker 1: with the Soccer Betting podcast from the Action Network, presented

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Speaker 1: to you by bet three sixty five. My name is

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Speaker 1: Michael Leebuff and joining me as always are BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 1: and Anthony Bundo. Together the three of us are going

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Speaker 1: to break down the upcoming Premier League slate. It's another

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Speaker 1: big one title race is still on, relegation race, still

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Speaker 1: on a whole lot of other stuff to get to.

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Speaker 1: After we go through each match in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: all ten of them, we'll talk a little Bundesliga Syria

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Speaker 1: a La Liga league and give out our underdog parlay,

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Speaker 1: which is a record setter at five hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: seven to one, and then we'll give out our favorite

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Speaker 1: bets in the Premier League. So it should be a

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Speaker 1: fun show. And to start off, we will go to

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Speaker 1: the top of the table with BJ's Arsenal flying high

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Speaker 1: after a winn in the North London Derby. They are

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Speaker 1: on top of the Premier League as we go into

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Speaker 1: the weekend. They have a one point advantage over City.

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Speaker 1: There're seven goals better in the goal difference department, but

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Speaker 1: City does have the game in hand, so this thing

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Speaker 1: is still neck and neck. Liverpool have fallen well behind

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Speaker 1: now at five points a drift of Arsenal, so we'll

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Speaker 1: couch them for third on the rundown. So Arsenal BJ

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Speaker 1: they are taking on I don't know how to describe

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Speaker 1: Bournemouth now, pesky talented, they're a little bit of everything.

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna this is I think this is a

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Speaker 1: banataskin potential here. They are, of course a massive favorite.

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Speaker 1: This is the seven thirty am kickoff on Saturday as well.

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Speaker 1: You'd have to lay minus five hundred for Arsenal on

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Speaker 1: the three way line, nine to one for Bournemouth. And

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Speaker 1: seven to one for the draw BJ. How do you

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Speaker 1: see this one playing out? Is there any betting value?

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Speaker 3: Well? As a Arsenal fan, I can tell you that

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Speaker 3: of the remaining three matches is the one I'm most

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Speaker 3: worried about by far of any of them. Bournemouth is

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Speaker 3: a very good team. But with that being said, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna couch the thrill of everybody who wants to put

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Speaker 3: on their sneakers and just sprint as fast as they

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Speaker 3: can to the window to bed Bournemouth plus two because

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Speaker 3: the reality is the Bournemouth has some injuries that are

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Speaker 3: pretty concerning with how they're actually gonna set up here

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Speaker 3: against Arsenal. So Semeno is not going to play in

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Speaker 3: this match. Neither a Sinasterra. Tavianierre is also interest. There's

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Speaker 3: three wingers that are essentially out. Kirkeez is still suspended,

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Speaker 3: Zabrani's questionable Memphim, their backup center back is also is

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Speaker 3: also out for this match against Brighton, who will get

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Speaker 3: to later. They've quit on the season. They had to

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Speaker 3: play Owatara and Adam Smith as their two fullbacks. Not

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Speaker 3: the most optimal and ideal situation when you're facing two

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Speaker 3: of the best wingers in the Premier League and are

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Speaker 3: going to have to get them in one v one situations.

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Speaker 3: But I think the most interesting aspect of this game

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Speaker 3: is how effective Bournemouth is with their high press, because

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Speaker 3: Arsenal is not a team that likes to switch the

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Speaker 3: play very often. In fact, they have the third lowest

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Speaker 3: switch plays across the pitch of anybody in the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: They primarily rely on a lot of short passes to

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Speaker 3: get through the opponent's press, which is essentially what Bournemouth

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Speaker 3: wants you to do. So in that aspect it's a

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Speaker 3: tad worrying for Arsenal. But if you look at some

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Speaker 3: of the performances that Bournemouth have had against some of

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Speaker 3: the bigger sides and really good build up sides, they

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Speaker 3: have tended to struggle a little bit and you know,

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Speaker 3: Arsenal is a good enough team and they've showed it

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Speaker 3: over these last couple of matches, especially against Tottenham, that

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Speaker 3: they can play more direct, that they can concede a

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Speaker 3: lot of possession and maybe to make the game more

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Speaker 3: optimal in their favor given the situation. So we saw

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Speaker 3: a lot of long balls from Arsenal against Tottenham, a

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Speaker 3: couple of them were successful as well. So I think

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Speaker 3: that this is worrisome for Arsenal with how good Bournemouth

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Speaker 3: has been, I mean since they have gone in this

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Speaker 3: resurgence essentially, you know, in twenty twenty four they've taken

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Speaker 3: the fifth most points behind you know, the top three

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Speaker 3: in aston Villa. So they're a very good team. But

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Speaker 3: with all these injuries for them, you know, especially missing

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Speaker 3: three wingers, that is a very difficult situation to go

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Speaker 3: into Arsenal and to compete as well. So if Bornemath's

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Speaker 3: going to win this match, it's going to because Arsenal

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Speaker 3: made a couple of mistakes and build up, which they

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Speaker 3: have done recently, like they did it against Autum. They

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Speaker 3: conceded a goal right to them, So without a doubt

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Speaker 3: can happen. But this is still Arsenal that in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four hasn't even conceded ten non penalty expected goals.

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Speaker 3: Like there's still really really good defense. It's like there's

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Speaker 3: this like massive drop off. It's basically what's happened with

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Speaker 3: Arsenal and it just happens to some teams. Is like

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Speaker 3: the huge chances that they can sede are just off

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Speaker 3: of like the dumbest mistakes that we've seen all season long.

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Speaker 3: So counting on that with Arsenal is not really like

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Speaker 3: a suboptimal thing for these smaller teams to do. So

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Speaker 3: I like under three and a half. I think that

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Speaker 3: this match will play out kind of slow. Arsenal's going

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Speaker 3: to slow the pace down. One, it's not this like

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Speaker 3: intense let's press you like, let's get the match played

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Speaker 3: at a very high pace. Like they're actually kind of

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Speaker 3: slow with their pressing, and like when they have the ball,

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Speaker 3: they kind of slow things down as well. So and

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Speaker 3: especially facing a good team build a team like Arsenal,

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Speaker 3: I don't think you're going to see them just go

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Speaker 3: balls to the wall and just leave themselves incredibly exposed.

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Speaker 3: Especially when Arsenal gets ahead, they can definitely kill this

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Speaker 3: game off pretty nicely. So I like under three and

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Speaker 3: a half reject to two point eight goals. So I

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Speaker 3: think there's some value on under three and a half

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Speaker 3: of minus one ten.

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Speaker 4: If you were to squint, you could suggest that the

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Speaker 4: Arsenal defense has taken a significant step back from god

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Speaker 4: tier elite status to just a good defense.

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Speaker 2: And I think there's questions you have to have.

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Speaker 4: Any time a team has been as dominant as Arsenal

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Speaker 4: has been defensively for the large stretch of this season,

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Speaker 4: how sustainable is it to be that dominant? Obviously they

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Speaker 4: can be great, they can be elite, they can be

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Speaker 4: the best in the league, and they can also go

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Speaker 4: from hey, we're maybe not a point five defense, which

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Speaker 4: we were for most of the season.

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Speaker 2: We're more of like a point seventy five defense.

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Speaker 4: And then bj kind of mentioned it when he talked

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Speaker 4: about the mistakes that have kind of creeped into the game.

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Speaker 4: You know, the Byron two legs stick out, the Villa match,

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Speaker 4: which they controlled for large stretches and then lost control

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Speaker 4: of in the second half and conceded twice. Even the

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Speaker 4: Magic against Chelsea. Chelsea got played off the park for

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Speaker 4: large stretches, but they still create over one and a

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Speaker 4: half x G. And then Toddenham, I mean, Spurs scored

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Speaker 4: two off of mistakes, but also could have scored goals

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Speaker 4: off of non missisas. Prior to that too, Romero had

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Speaker 4: multiple big chances that he missed. You know, Van Devens

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Speaker 4: off by a toenail. There were a lot of opportunities

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Speaker 4: for Tottenham in that match. In total, almost one point

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Speaker 4: eight non.

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Speaker 2: Penalty x G in the match.

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Speaker 4: So you look at Arsenal's defense and you say, hey,

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Speaker 4: we know they're the best in the league, we know

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Speaker 4: how great they are, but the cracks have shown up

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Speaker 4: and five of the last six matches. The only exception

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Speaker 4: was the Wolves match, in which we remember this was

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Speaker 4: still the zombie skeleton Wolves who never really posed much

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Speaker 4: of a threat for a month given their personnel issues

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Speaker 4: they had in that time period. So like both teams

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Speaker 4: of score, I do think Bornemuth gets on the board here.

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Speaker 4: We can still have big Dom feeling good about that.

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Speaker 4: Watara is, you know, not a great defensive fullback, but

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Speaker 4: if he has to play fullback, if anything, that puts

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Speaker 4: the onus on them to be more aggressive and push

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Speaker 4: numbers forward because it's his best skill. And Arsenal hasn't

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Speaker 4: had a ton of teams that they're just going to

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Speaker 4: lop it over the press.

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Speaker 2: So I'm interested to see what that looks like.

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Speaker 4: From Borneman's perspective, Arsenal has clearly shown they can dominate

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Speaker 4: team who want to play out against them. They can

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Speaker 4: force those high turnovers. But Bournemouth, since their stylistic shift.

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Speaker 4: We talked about this, you know, back in December. They've

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Speaker 4: gone between more long balls and it's been effective and

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Speaker 4: they've been a top eight team in the league since.

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Speaker 4: And uh, I don't think they'll get a result here,

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Speaker 4: but I think they're certainly live to do so. And

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Speaker 4: leave it to BJ to throw a shout at United

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Speaker 4: a little quick little stray in our conversation about Arsenal more.

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Speaker 3: They'll be more. Trust me, there'll be plenty more on

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Speaker 3: the podcast, so tune in later.

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Speaker 4: You have to understand BJ. That doesn't matter what United's

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Speaker 4: form is their defense. They're going to be at home

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Speaker 4: at Old Trafford on the penultimate week and they're going

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Speaker 4: to be plenty live regardless of how bad they're playing

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Speaker 4: coming into the match. That match and that one, we'll

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Speaker 4: see what don't opening line's probably line up, right, it's

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Speaker 4: probably a.

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Speaker 3: Line up or now we'll get to that you know

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Speaker 3: later maybe, but but yeah, no, I'm not This is

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Speaker 3: probably famous house words, but I'm not afraid of you,

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Speaker 3: like at all.

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Speaker 4: Right now, Well, you know, Arsenal United went to Arsenal

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Speaker 4: And in the fall and uh needed well they needed

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Speaker 4: a late goal.

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Speaker 2: To win it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but they talk like Arsenal was completely dominating the

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Speaker 4: match prior they hadn't most of the chances, yes, but

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Speaker 4: they weren't like overwhelming them with chance of the chance

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Speaker 4: of chance. No line up yet on this is we'll do.

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Speaker 3: We'll do Casamiro at center back and has no midfielders available,

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Speaker 3: so no.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just vibes.

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Speaker 1: We'll do next week's podcast next week for this one.

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Speaker 1: I like. I like the bourn with first half money line.

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Speaker 1: This is something I did with Liverpool and Crystal Palace

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Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. There's a couple of things

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Speaker 1: that play into what I like here. While the splits

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Speaker 1: are definitely not as strong for Arsenal as they were

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool when I was betting that, it's not like

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Speaker 1: this team just like storms teams out of the gate

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Speaker 1: right Arsenal's got into the break tied fifteen times. They've

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Speaker 1: been behind at four and ahead six sixteen, so it's

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Speaker 1: been more likely than not that like every other team

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Speaker 1: basically except for City, that they go into the break

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Speaker 1: drawn or level the worst. So but the what I

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Speaker 1: like here is is kind of what BJ was talking

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Speaker 1: about right, like it could take some time for Arsenal

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Speaker 1: to adjust to the all action style that that Bournemouth

216
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Speaker 1: is going to throw throw at them. You'd expect if

217
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Speaker 1: either of these sides is going to be tight, it

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Speaker 1: would be arsenal coming out of the gates. Given the

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Speaker 1: stakes here, Bourne myth it's a free hit, right. It's

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Speaker 1: cliche to say it, but it is. They get the

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Speaker 1: chance to play in a super Bowl, in a game

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Speaker 1: that can decide a title on the road, so that

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Speaker 1: I think helps here too. But mostly yeah, it's like

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Speaker 1: what you were talking about BJ. It's this this press

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Speaker 1: from from Bournemouth, the way Ariola has them playing, the talent,

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Speaker 1: the fact that they do have a clinical finisher top.

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Speaker 1: I think that this is a good opportunity to take

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Speaker 1: a shot on that first half money line, and at

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Speaker 1: seven and a half to one plus seven and fifty,

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Speaker 1: I think it's absolutely worth the we're the shot, So

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Speaker 1: that's where I will be going for that one. The

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Speaker 1: other title contender, Manchester City, also with a tricky one here.

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Speaker 1: The odds won't tell you that, and the odds will

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Speaker 1: tell you it's not tricky. But this Wolves team, man,

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Speaker 1: they just have a way. They just have a way

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Speaker 1: of finding themselves in this exact kind of situation. I

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Speaker 1: feel like every season where they get a get a

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Speaker 1: crack at one of the two teams in a tight

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Speaker 1: title race, and they are a massive underdog at Man City.

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Speaker 1: This is the twelve thirty kickoff on Saturday at Bettery

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Speaker 1: six's five. We have Wolves at fourteen to one, Cities

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Speaker 1: laying minus one thousand in the draw is eleven to one.

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Speaker 1: I think that this has a city to win from

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Speaker 1: behind field to it BJ that's my link here. I'm

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Speaker 1: probably gonna be on the Wolves money line because if

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Speaker 1: I think that Wolves can get on the board and

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Speaker 1: get ahead here, it's these odds, it's worth it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's some big numbers out there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So for context, about less than a month ago,

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Speaker 3: I think it was City took on Lutontown at home,

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Speaker 3: and it was a Loutontown team that obviously wasn't a

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Speaker 3: bad run. They had no available center backs to play

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Speaker 3: for them, and City closed that minus one thousand. And

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Speaker 3: now we're sitting with Wolves, whose injury situation isn't that

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Speaker 3: bad anymore. It's just Nato is essentially the only guy

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Speaker 3: that is out for them. Otherwise they're completely healthy, and

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Speaker 3: City is essentially laying the same line that's must win tax.

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Speaker 3: People like that is a title race they need to win.

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Speaker 3: Wolves doesn't have anything to play for a tax that's

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Speaker 3: being put on that. I mean, Wolves is just coming

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Speaker 3: off good forms against Lutontown and then the previous one

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Speaker 3: against Arsenal, and I know they lost to nothing, but

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Speaker 3: they were actually pretty good in that match, and I

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Speaker 3: was actually very impressed with how they were able to

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Speaker 3: play in their low block, how they were able to

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Speaker 3: actually build out of the back successfully through the middle

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Speaker 3: of the pitch. Against Arsenal, they just didn't have Kunya

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Speaker 3: and they had a very injured Twang playing up top.

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Speaker 3: Now both Plang and Cunya are healthy. They have outlets

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Speaker 3: that they can get to through city here and this

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Speaker 3: is a Wolf's defense that is well drilled under Gary O'Neil.

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Speaker 3: He's one of the best tactical managers in this league,

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Speaker 3: and he's gone through a lot given his situation at Wolves,

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Speaker 3: with injuries, players being sold in everything to get them

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Speaker 3: to this point. Yes, they have overperformed at this point,

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Speaker 3: but they are a very well drilled tactical team and

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Speaker 3: they're very good in their low block. Last seven matches,

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Speaker 3: they've only conceded two big scoring chants. They've concealed a

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Speaker 3: ton of shots and they're going to concede a ton

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Speaker 3: of shots in this match, there's no doubt about that.

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Speaker 3: But they're not allowing high quality chances. And what we've

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Speaker 3: seen from City, I mean you would think after that

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Speaker 3: Nottingham Forest match that like they're completely unbeatable, right, like

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Speaker 3: they got they should not have won. They actually probably

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Speaker 3: should have lost that match. I mean, if you look

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Speaker 3: at the final XG it was two to zero point eight.

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Speaker 3: They took advantage of, you know, credit City, they took

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Speaker 3: advantage of the one weakness that are obviously for us

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Speaker 3: as many weaknesses, but their main weakness, which is defending

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Speaker 3: set pieces. They conceded another goal off a set piece,

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Speaker 3: so there you go. But Wolves is incredible defense at

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Speaker 3: defending set pieces. They're actually very good offensively on set pieces,

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Speaker 3: which is another thing that City has kind of struggled with.

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Speaker 3: I know they've only conceded two goals off them all

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Speaker 3: season long, but they conceded about six expected and they're

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Speaker 3: actually twelve the next cheop or six set piece allowed

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Speaker 3: and the transition defensive problems are still there, like it's

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Speaker 3: not getting any better anytime soon, and Pep obviously knows this.

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Speaker 3: He's one of the best manners of all time. He

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Speaker 3: realizes that their only way that they can actually effectively

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Speaker 3: break down all of these low blocks is to push

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Speaker 3: for push Rodri push Cavardiole and to push, whether it

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00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:25,920
Speaker 3: be Kovachish or in the Stones roll and push them

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Speaker 3: farther forward so that they can overload the teams playing

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Speaker 3: in a low block. And so, yes, he has conceded

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Speaker 3: the fact that they're going to get into three B

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Speaker 3: three situations in transition if that's just going to happen.

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Speaker 3: But he believes, and it's probably true, that the probability

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Speaker 3: is better of them scoring with having all these guys

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Speaker 3: in the box and then the other team's playing in transition.

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Speaker 3: But guess what, we'll speed them last time, primarily from

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Speaker 3: beating them in transition. So I think this line is crazy.

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Speaker 3: I think Wolves is definitely live here to win. I

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Speaker 3: like them plot on the spread plus two and a half,

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Speaker 3: and I like them to score in this match. You

316
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Speaker 3: know you need the highest plus one twenty five, which

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Speaker 3: I think is also crazy. That Lowtontown was higher to

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Speaker 3: score against City on the road than Wolves was, so

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Speaker 3: I think this is a slam dunk spot here for

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Speaker 3: Wolves and just a ton of must win tax on City.

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Speaker 4: Agree Wolves team total over is my bet here to

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Speaker 4: score plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I don't really understand it.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you mentioned the X chief from the last

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Speaker 4: match it was two to point eight four Nottingham Forest,

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Speaker 4: which is important to mention him. If you watch that match,

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Speaker 4: at no point did City have any control of it.

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Speaker 4: And I thought it was really fascinating. At halftime, they're

329
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Speaker 4: up one nil, Guardiola opted to sit Dooku and sub

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Speaker 4: him out and bring on Covidchic and I said to

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Speaker 4: my friend, I said, that's an interesting sub, like he

332
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Speaker 4: really wants control of the match. Let's see how that works.

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Speaker 4: And in the first five minutes of the second half

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Speaker 4: Niam Forrest had two excellent chances to.

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Speaker 2: Score on the break. It didn't matter.

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Speaker 4: And I think this City team we're seeing right now

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Speaker 4: is kind of similar to what we saw at the

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Speaker 4: end of last year, where they keep winning. So everybody's

339
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Speaker 4: kind of papering over it and ignoring the cracks. But

340
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Speaker 4: remember the Everton match. They got out play, you know, defensively,

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Speaker 4: they really fell off after they clinched the title.

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Speaker 2: Okay, you can excuse that.

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Speaker 4: Then they went into those two cup finals as heavy

344
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Speaker 4: heavy favorites against Man United and against Inter and they

345
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 4: were not good in either match relative to what we'd

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Speaker 4: expect from City, and they really limped in. And like

347
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Speaker 4: I said, they limped in. I'm saying this while acknowledging. Yes,

348
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Speaker 4: they won the trouble, but City was not at their

349
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Speaker 4: best at the end of last season. They looked agast

350
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Speaker 4: and they still look pretty fatigued to me. I understand

351
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Speaker 4: they had a beat down win against Brighton because Kevin

352
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Speaker 4: Debrunna did the Van Percy leaping header, the flying Dutchman,

353
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Speaker 4: the flying Belgian, and they had a couple of nice finishes,

354
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Speaker 4: but the weekend performance was not great. I do think

355
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Speaker 4: Hollin probably starts here, but I think their defense remains

356
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Speaker 4: very vulnerable and they'll probably win this two.

357
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Speaker 2: To one, three to one.

358
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Speaker 4: But I think the total on Wolves to score at

359
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Speaker 4: plus one twenty five is crazy. I had this closer

360
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Speaker 4: to minus one fifteen.

361
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Speaker 3: I think it's important that you note that Brighton match

362
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Speaker 3: because what Brighton did at the match was suicidal. They

363
00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 3: went manned man across the pitch yeah, hardly did it.

364
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 3: And City you like ripped them apart, and yes, they

365
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,159
Speaker 3: had a couple of good finishes. And then we go

366
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Speaker 3: right back to the weekend and from open play they

367
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 3: do nothing against the low block, and so now they're

368
00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 3: going to face another low block here when we're just

369
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Speaker 3: coming off in FA Cup semi final where they failed

370
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Speaker 3: to create over one expectacle. It's Chelsea who was also

371
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 3: playing a little So the struggles are still there and

372
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:21,680
Speaker 3: they're gonna play a very well drilled one here. So

373
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Speaker 3: why are we laying close to two and a half

374
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Speaker 3: goals on a really really good defense.

375
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Chelsea is another match where City was not

376
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:29,480
Speaker 4: at its best. You know, you just look across the board. Now,

377
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 4: the real Madrid loss you can probably excuse that, you know, penalties, whatever,

378
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 4: But the FA Cup win. You know, it's funnycause we're

379
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 4: talking about this in wins. But remember we're comparing City

380
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,520
Speaker 4: to like this incredible power rating that they're getting here

381
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 4: and I don't really see it. I think they win this,

382
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 4: but I bold of me to say, but uh.

383
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really trust that's a favorite to it.

384
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,160
Speaker 2: I don't really trust Wolves defensively. That's what I'm turn here, but.

385
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 1: I think that the thing you touched on is the

386
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,959
Speaker 1: most important is the fatigue, right, Like you're not getting

387
00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 1: a full this this power rating that the odds here

388
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 1: are telling you that, like you're getting City at its best,

389
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 1: not getting City at its best even close to its best.

390
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,359
Speaker 1: You're getting a City team that's played a ton of soccer.

391
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:09,600
Speaker 1: And I think part of the reason why this line

392
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 1: maybe has looks a little or is inflated is because

393
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,680
Speaker 1: they're not playing in the Champions League this past week, right,

394
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 1: so they get a little bit of a breather, but

395
00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 1: they get one midweek match off. Come on, like it's

396
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 1: not this has been a ton of soccer for this team.

397
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 1: The manager knows that. He's been talking about it in

398
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,439
Speaker 1: the media, like he's not the only one obviously, but

399
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,639
Speaker 1: they they mention it. It's a problem. And now you're

400
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,959
Speaker 1: gonna take on a really pesky side. I think that,

401
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 1: and like I'm I'm gonna ask you, Anthony, if you're

402
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 1: gonna bet them to score here, I still think that

403
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,119
Speaker 1: you might as well just take there's twenty four to

404
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 1: one out there, Like, yeah, this that line is crazy

405
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 1: to me. If bringing up with Bija did like we

406
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 1: remember how we were talking about the for for a

407
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 1: few weeks during the the kind of beginning stages of

408
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:51,640
Speaker 1: the stretch run for the title contenders. We're like, we're

409
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: getting these numbers on Sheffield United and Lowtontown and uh,

410
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,320
Speaker 1: you know other terrible teams in the Premier League. Bay

411
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,760
Speaker 1: Like we're getting like sixteen eighteen to one. Wolves is

412
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 1: so much better than those teams, and they're getting a

413
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,400
Speaker 1: city team that's not as good as they were when

414
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: you know those lines are coming out, So I think

415
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 1: that this is uh yeah, we spent too much time

416
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 1: talking about these this match, but race, yes, it's exactly.

417
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 2: Went down the wire.

418
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 3: This is like this is like Isner who ray on Itch,

419
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:27,399
Speaker 3: Like everybody's just holding serve here.

420
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 1: Everyone's holding serve. Okay, I will talk about our excuse me,

421
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,200
Speaker 1: we'll talk about Liverpool next. They are Sunday eleven thirty

422
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: am kickoff hosting Spurs. This is a tough one for Anthony,

423
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 1: his favorite team Liverpool taking on his tech team Tottenham

424
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,879
Speaker 1: Liverpool for too. Yeah, tough one for Ange too, yeah.

425
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 4: Tough one for Ar Yeahar had a real mayor last meeting.

426
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Speaker 1: Anyways, Liverpool at Fortress Anfield is minus two hundred Spurs

427
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 1: traveling to Fortress Enfield at four to one, and the

428
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 1: draw is plus four fifty at Fortress Anfield.

429
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 3: Anthony Amore, is it just Anfield?

430
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 4: It's still a fortress In my heart, Arnie will be

431
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:17,360
Speaker 4: in town in July to reinforce the fortress. He's bringing reinforcements.

432
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 1: From the Yeah, I mean it's Spurs for me here too.

433
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,199
Speaker 1: I mean it's just this is a spot play. Like

434
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 1: you're not only getting a team in Liverpool that is

435
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 1: playing it, that has also played a ton of soccer

436
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 1: like the other ones, but they're showing it in terms

437
00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: of their results and they're going to pick themselves up

438
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 1: for what is now. I mean it's not meaningless, but

439
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: it essentially is, especially because they're going to know the

440
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,360
Speaker 1: two results beforehand, and if the odds hold the way

441
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 1: that we think it's going to be an eight point

442
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 1: gap between them and and Arsenal, they'll be done. They're done,

443
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,360
Speaker 1: so dead, Robert match, It's not. I think that the

444
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 1: spot I'd be afraid to bet against them would be

445
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,080
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks when they the season ends

446
00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 1: and it's clops last time to you know, fist at

447
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: Anfield when they tie West Brom or whatever. But like this,

448
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: this one, to me looks you're getting a really good

449
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 1: Tottenham team for all their flaws, they're still good. They're

450
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 1: they're up there in the top four race for a reason,

451
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 1: or we're in the top four race. I guess they

452
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 1: still are with the games at hand. But it's it's

453
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: Spurs here for me, because I just I don't trust

454
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: Liverpool to be at their best either, and Spurs can

455
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 1: pick a peen part like that. The matchup stylistically could

456
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:27,479
Speaker 1: be a nightmare for Spurs, though.

457
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 4: Anthony genuinely hilarious that over three and a half is

458
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 4: minus one fifty. Thought we were gonna get like an

459
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 4: even money minus one ten opener on three and a

460
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 4: half and I was just say, yeah, we're gonna bet

461
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 4: the over again.

462
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 1: It feels like the time to bet a nil nil.

463
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 2: Actually yeah, the total is almost four.

464
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 4: I have this at three eight seven, so I'm pretty

465
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 4: much in line with the market on both the side

466
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 4: and the total here. I think it is tricky for

467
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 4: Tottenham right because they do have the Thursday away match

468
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 4: at Chelsea. Then they have the Thursday away match or

469
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 4: Sunday away match at Liverpool, so it is a back

470
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 4: to back awayer. Fortune has been out of use for

471
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: a while. I mean Liverpool just played four straight away

472
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 4: matches and all competitions.

473
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 2: They haven't played at home since the Palace defeat.

474
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 4: UH and thus you know they return home and get

475
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 4: a whole week off, which you know should help them.

476
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 4: But you know, given just the lack of control they've

477
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,160
Speaker 4: been able to exert on matches, I think it's risky

478
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 4: delay spreads with them. So this one, you know, it's

479
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 4: exciting for me, but I think it's past I am

480
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 4: in should to see with Tottenham if they choose to

481
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 4: start with Charleston. I thought the attack was much better

482
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 4: once they pushed Son out wide and moved with Charlotton

483
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 4: up top. I'd hope they had started the derby with

484
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 4: that on Sunday, Saturday, Sunday, whatever day the derby was,

485
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 4: I wish they had started it with that because I

486
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 4: think it's their best attacking lineup when they push Son

487
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 4: out wide and get more shots from R.

488
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 2: Charlaston and.

489
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 3: They didn't.

490
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 4: But either way, you know Tottenham's set piece defensive issues.

491
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 4: Both teams have set piece defensive issues that this game

492
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 4: just has all the makings of a wide open, back

493
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 4: and forth defending optional kind of match of which I

494
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 4: want no part of the under.

495
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 3: It's a fun, live thinning game quite frankly. You know, obviously,

496
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 3: like you said, it's going to be very back and

497
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 3: forth whatever team goes ahead, and none of them have

498
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 3: really been able to control matches or hold leads. Both

499
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 3: of them are going to go for it, so you

500
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 3: know you could always bet Todd them coming out of

501
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: the second half where they've scored seven billion goals. So yeah,

502
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: I mean, like you said, I'm I'm pretty close in

503
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 3: line with the market here. I have Liverpool at minus

504
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: one sixty four in the total at three point eight,

505
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,959
Speaker 3: so there's really just no value for me. Liverpool's obviously

506
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,400
Speaker 3: falling apart at the seams, Michael, which is very sad

507
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 3: to see. We got solid clop arguing on the touch line.

508
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 3: Noonias is clearly not healthy because it keeps coming off

509
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 3: the bench in like the eightyeth minute, like there's just

510
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:48,439
Speaker 3: joke them. I think it's still out as well. So

511
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 3: it's just the case that is the case for Spurs,

512
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 3: and I think that if you were if you made

513
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 3: me play aside here, I would definitely play them, but

514
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 3: I think it's just a lot more fun of a

515
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: match too that whoever goes behind and just you know,

516
00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: that's the story of the Premier League, the story the

517
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 3: Premier League. So let's planned with.

518
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 1: It, or or maybe neither of them go behind. Maybe

519
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: it's a nil. Note you can bet what, Michael, do

520
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: you want to you want to get inder a guess.

521
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: I'll go, oh, eighteen to one.

522
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 2: Twenty two to one.

523
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: Oh boy, if that's where you guys think it should be.

524
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: Is that where if you think it should be uh

525
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: eighteen or or or twenty two to one. Uh, you

526
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: guys are gonna want to bet the Neil Mill it's

527
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 1: thirty three to one. It's actually I think it's actually

528
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: well there.

529
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 3: Parlay that with Wolves and there you go.

530
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: Yep, you have an lethal combination for Liverpool here, which

531
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 4: is their team has forgotten how to kick the ball

532
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 4: into the net and now they're facing one of the

533
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 4: best goalies in the league.

534
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 2: From a shot stopping perspective.

535
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 4: So you know, maybe if the Acario Allison boasted on

536
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:54,879
Speaker 4: their head and it's one of those like Liverpool Chelsea

537
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 4: Cup finals where there's three and a half XG.

538
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: But it's nil nil going into extra time.

539
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 3: You know, the kick the ball in that that seems

540
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 3: suboptimal to be to be good as soccer, So maybe

541
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 3: you should maybe should Liverpool should start doing that a

542
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 3: little more.

543
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 4: Sorry, Arnie's Arnie's notorious for coaching up teams to do that.

544
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 4: So I think I was insufferable this year with Liverpool

545
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 4: getting Arnie slot in. That's just so perfect and he

546
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 4: has no chance of living.

547
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 2: Up to the club.

548
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll be fired by the impossible job.

549
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 4: He'll be fired off the twenty matches. But those twenty

550
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 4: are going to be magical stuff.

551
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 1: See.

552
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 3: I have a zero zero projected a little under three

553
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 3: percent for Liverpool Tottenham.

554
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 2: So thirty three to one is value.

555
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 3: Thirty three to one is a little bit of value.

556
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 1: It sounds like a good grouper. Lutontown and everettened up next.

557
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 1: This one a couple of weeks ago looked like it

558
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 1: was going to be one of the biggest matches of

559
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: the season, and then Ever didn't beat Liverpool, and then

560
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: they went again over the weekend. This is high times

561
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 1: for Dewey Crow for Everdon. Right now, if this game

562
00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 1: is essentially pick them at Lutontown had it plus one

563
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: fifty five on the three way line, Everton the slightest

564
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: of underdogs, plus one sixty, and the draw is plus

565
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: two sixty. You could say, oh, Everton might be on

566
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: the beach and Loutontown is fighting for its Premier League life.

567
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: It's Friday night, it's under the lights. I do think

568
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 1: I would play Evert in here, just in terms of

569
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: just a gap between these two teams is pretty wide.

570
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: So and I don't think you're going to see this

571
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: everdon team, you know, take its foot off the pedal

572
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: here PJ.

573
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 3: So looks looks like a bet on the Toffees. Once again,

574
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,719
Speaker 3: you mentioned that gap. So overall for the season, if

575
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 3: we're just going purely expect a goal differential, Loutontown's at

576
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 3: minus point nine to four for ninety minutes. Everton's at

577
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 3: minus point zero four. So essentially there's a not a

578
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: point nine goal gap on underlying numbers between these two teams.

579
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 3: And even if we go from the beginning of February,

580
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 3: Loutontown is at minus two point one six, expect a

581
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,679
Speaker 3: gold differential per ninety minutes while Everton's around even. So

582
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 3: you like you mentioned the gap is very, very wide

583
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 3: between these two teams. It's just the fact that Everton's

584
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 3: safe and Loutontown has to win. That's why this line

585
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 3: is what it is. But I actually think's a pretty

586
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 3: good match up here for Everton because Everton is the

587
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 3: better version of what Loutontown wants to be. Honestly, Loutontown

588
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 3: wants to be a team that can play a good

589
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 3: aggressive mid to high block and actually win balls and

590
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,959
Speaker 3: press teams effectively. They haven't been able to do that.

591
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:25,919
Speaker 3: The inter situation is getting a little bit better for

592
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 3: the louton Town. They'll have you know, two or three

593
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 3: available center backs for this match, which is good for them.

594
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 3: But if you look at what they have done defensively

595
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 3: this season against the two things that Everton does does well,

596
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 3: which is sending crosses and score goals off at set pieces,

597
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 3: Loutontown is in the bottom half of the Premier League

598
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: an next cheaper set piece allowed and they're fifteenth at

599
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 3: defending crosses. So the two they've faced Everton twice this season,

600
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: one they beat Everton hilariously too to one, and Everton

601
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 3: created almost three expected goals, which is like the classic

602
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 3: average and performance and then they played them in the

603
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 3: FA Cup beat them to one again, which was a

604
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 3: little bit of a closer match. But over those two matches,

605
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 3: Everton created three point nine expected goals when he scored twice.

606
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 3: Lutontown created a little over two expected goal and scored

607
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 3: four times, so they weren't better than them and really

608
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 3: either match. So you're just getting a bunch of must

609
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: win tax here on Everton and who will play hard

610
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 3: under Sean Ditch hopefully shows up in the track suits

611
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: so we can get the fourth win under there. But yeah,

612
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 3: I think this is just there's like you said, Michael,

613
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 3: there's just such a far gap between these two teams.

614
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 3: And from a motivational standpoint, yes, Everton is safe, but

615
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: Loutontown has to win. They can't draw this match like,

616
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 3: they have to go for it and they have to win.

617
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: They got to put pressure on Nottingham Forest, who's gonna

618
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 3: play Sheffield this week. So if they have to play

619
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 3: aggressively and they have to press Everton, that's gonna leave

620
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 3: a lot of space for some long balls in behind

621
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 3: for Everton. So I like the top eest John, I

622
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 3: bet you can get them as low as around even

623
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 3: money on that so Everton once again.

624
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, second straight week where it's a huge motivational mismatch

625
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: for Lootontown over their opponent. Lootontown outplayed and lost at Wolves.

626
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 4: I think they're gonna struggle here too. I mean, it's

627
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 4: just a pure numbers play for me. I hate to

628
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 4: hop on the Evergon bandwagon and ruin the fun after

629
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 4: I did not bet them myself in any of the

630
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 4: three matches they actually won, not Iam Forrest Liverpool. You

631
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: know we had the money line, dog spot Spot, but

632
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 4: and then Renford this weekend. It really just comes down

633
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 4: everything Beach you just said.

634
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: I can't.

635
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 4: I don't want to just repeat it for the sake

636
00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 4: of time. So I agree entirely with BJ's point. The

637
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 4: number makes no sense, and thus I will bet the

638
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 4: Toffees once again and lead them to the slaughter.

639
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 3: No no, no, no no, no, slaughter will be good.

640
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 2: It doesn't even matter anymore. They stayed up.

641
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 4: Also, another three points for Everton. I said this last

642
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 4: week on the show, like forty three points.

643
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: If you take out the pat the bands.

644
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 4: I mean, imagine if I told you before the season,

645
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 4: look at Leeba, if they're gonna have forty three points by.

646
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 2: The three matches to play.

647
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, that's it. Sounds like Roberto Martinez

648
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: is evident good I've been used to for pre far

649
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: hut most shii. Okay, Anthony, you're the only one with anything.

650
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: For the next match, we'll talk about Brentford, also safe

651
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: on the beach taking on another team on the beach

652
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: in a beach bowl. With the Bee sitting plus one

653
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: ten at home Fullham plus two twenty and the draw

654
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: is plus two eighty.

655
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, plus one ten, one fifteen out there

656
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 4: on Brentford.

657
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 2: I have the minus one ten in this match.

658
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 4: So just again a peer numbers plague and trust my

659
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 4: numbers here. You know, Brentford hasn't had the best year,

660
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 4: but they still have like a pretty healthy crop of

661
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 4: attacking players available. Fulham away from home this year, you know,

662
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 4: we talked about their home away splits a bunch on

663
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 4: this show. It's been pretty ugly. Their set piece defense

664
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: remains pretty poor. I think that Brentford is the better

665
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 4: team and at home, so I'm going to take the

666
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 4: Bees anything plus money.

667
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 1: Okay. That moves us on to Burnley and Newcastle up next.

668
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 1: Burnley at home plus two fifty, the Magpie traveling hodds

669
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: On minus one of six and the draw here paced

670
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: out three to one. This is a pretty easy pass

671
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: for me. I don't really see this one having any value.

672
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: I guess you can talk about the motivational angle here

673
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: BJ for the last guest for Burnley, they're still within

674
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: touching distance of the stay staying alive and getting another

675
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: season in the Premier League. But outside of that, I

676
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: got really nothing interesting to say.

677
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: I think Newcastle is kind of interesting here. I would

678
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: maybe want to play their team total rather than on

679
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 3: the money line here as a as a road favorite there.

680
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 3: I mean Newcastle is still motivated, like they want to

681
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 3: play in the Europa League instead of the Conference League,

682
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: so they will be definitely motivated here. I mean Burnley

683
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 3: got into a for most of the match, got back

684
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 3: into a back and forth transitional battle with United and

685
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 3: it was and turned up being suboptimal for them and

686
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 3: they created two expected goals. But getting into that back

687
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 3: and forth transitional type match with Newcastle still having all

688
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,640
Speaker 3: of their attackers or at least they're good ones available,

689
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 3: and this new Newcastle that is, you know, starting Harvey Barnes,

690
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 3: Anthony Gordon, and e Shock. It's a very dangerous combination

691
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: to play against those. Burnley it's the goalkeeper situation. You know,

692
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 3: they started Trafford to begin the year and then they

693
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 3: went back to Murritch who was their goalkeeper in the

694
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 3: Championship of last year, and he's gone through this like

695
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 3: incredible shot stopping run, so you know he's due to

696
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 3: regress just a little bit from that. But yeah, Burnley

697
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 3: has to go for it right like they need to win,

698
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 3: like there's no there's no drawing here, like it's it's

699
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 3: it's full throttle. It's going to have to be back

700
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 3: and forth, transitional. Newcastle's teams lit all over one and

701
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 3: a half. You can find a minus one fifty out there.

702
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 3: I don't hate that if you wanted to try to

703
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 3: go for a bigger number over two and a half.

704
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 3: At at two to one, I think there's decent value

705
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: here on Newcastle. I am projecting a little bit value

706
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: on their money line, but the entries across their back

707
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 3: line and how they're playing, it's just it's not really

708
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,680
Speaker 3: suboptimal to to backing them as a road favorite. So

709
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 3: I could very well see the stat and match aning

710
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 3: in something like a two two draw or something like that.

711
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 3: So Newcastle team total over one and a half minus

712
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: one fifty would be my play here if to play anything.

713
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 4: Callum Wilson coming off the bench too last week, you know,

714
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 4: him getting back to fitness is just another boost. I

715
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 4: mean they played Es SoC for sixty minutes and they

716
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 4: bring on Wilson and for thirty and it's like pretty

717
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 4: good attacking production.

718
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,479
Speaker 3: Also, I might have to say this Golden boot race

719
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 3: has turned to heat up. And I'm not going to

720
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 3: say that e Shak is live, but he might be live.

721
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: What were his preseasonids forty for.

722
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 4: Wow, Yeah, he's two behind right now, but he has nineteen.

723
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 3: He has nineteen. He got two against United, Sheffield.

724
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: United, Holland's at twenty one.

725
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: Holland's at twenty one, Palmer's at twenty. It's live and

726
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 3: I will say this Newcastle one more thing I want

727
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 3: to mention. I put it out on Twitter and I

728
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 3: won't I oh't bore the people. But I did play

729
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 3: Newcastle top six a plus one ten. If you look

730
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 3: at their schedule to finish the season, it's actually not

731
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 3: as bad comparatively to what United is also a game

732
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 3: in hands, so that's another future if you want it.

733
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 4: Those teams will play each other at Old Trafford correct

734
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 4: in the final midweek of the year makeup match.

735
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 1: So correct that brings us to a massive game for

736
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest, it's at Sheffield United, who are already relegated.

737
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 1: The Blades are plus three seventy five. The Tricky Trees

738
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: are a big minus one fifty four favorite. On the

739
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,280
Speaker 1: three way line to draw here is plus three twenty

740
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 1: lean various We like, kind of genuinely generally like what

741
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 1: Forrest has been doing from a prospect underlying perspective that

742
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 1: hasn't changed really, but this looks like too big a

743
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: price to pay Anthony.

744
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: One hundred percent.

745
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean now it's fun because Sheffield hasn't, you know,

746
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 4: nothing to play for it. It's pretty it is over,

747
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 4: but you know the market knows that, and the market

748
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 4: is kind of adjusted accordingly. There's a full goal difference

749
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 4: and true quality between these teams could even make it.

750
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: Closer to a quarter and a half a goal going quarter.

751
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 2: Excuse me, so.

752
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 4: You know the number I have around minus one forty five,

753
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 4: So I like, you know, Forrest's attack is just not

754
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 4: good enough to warrant laying this much of a price,

755
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 4: especially given that Sheffield as bad as their defense is,

756
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 4: and they're probably going to cross the one hundred goals

757
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 4: in this match conceded, they're at ninety seven. They have

758
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 4: a good chance to get to one hundred here. If not,

759
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 4: they will next match. Their attack has not been terrible recently.

760
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 4: I mean they got multiple goals that United, They got

761
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,879
Speaker 4: a bunch of chances against Newcastle. Barrington Diaz and has

762
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,239
Speaker 4: given them some spark. Commers been decent, like they've gotten

763
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: good production. They've shuffled through attackers so much to sea

764
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 4: that they found some semblance of an attack. But you know,

765
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 4: maybe they maybe they're interesting to score, but the force

766
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 4: they're just not explosive enough to warrant. This price is

767
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 4: a huge road favorite and a desperation spot where all

768
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 4: of the pressure.

769
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: Is on them.

770
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 4: That's the thing too, you know, you talk about motivation.

771
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 4: It works in both ways too though, because it's pressure

772
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 4: and sometimes teams don't perform up too well up to

773
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 4: par under under those you know, pressure situations.

774
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: You got anything here, b J four me.

775
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,720
Speaker 3: No, I agree with everything Anthony said. Just an inflated

776
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 3: price on a team that needs to win. But yeah,

777
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 3: it is. It's uh, it's definitely tricky for Nottingham for us,

778
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 3: but we could put the they could they honestly just

779
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,839
Speaker 3: could put the relegation battle to bed this week if

780
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 3: they just win and loot and loose.

781
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 4: They win in Newcastle wins, then it gets pretty and

782
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,879
Speaker 4: and Everton that it's pretty much over. But the thing

783
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 4: is they go to Burnley on the final day and

784
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 4: that's gonna p I mean, Burnley's what two points behind

785
00:36:56,440 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 4: them and Burnley's gonna play newcast So Burnley doesn't get

786
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 4: a result this weekend, they're gonna need to win to

787
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,720
Speaker 4: have any shot. But if they're within the point range,

788
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 4: they're going to have a chance the final weekend to

789
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 4: just beat them at home.

790
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:11,920
Speaker 2: That could happen. Then you know, one match anything can happen.

791
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 3: So yeah, Burnley's two points behind and they finish with

792
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 3: Newcastle at Tottenham and then at home against Forest, while

793
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,760
Speaker 3: Forrest finishes with obviously Sheffield this weekend then they host

794
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 3: Chelsea and obviously the match so Sty goes.

795
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: To west Ham host Fulham.

796
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 4: So you know, there's not really any like this team

797
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:36,879
Speaker 4: has no chance of getting a result. Here points left

798
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 4: for the three teams but not even Forest not only

799
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 4: has the extra point and two points over Lowton and Burnley,

800
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 4: but they also have the goal difference which is pretty

801
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 4: much clinched. So it would take something I think dramatic

802
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 4: to happen, especially if Forrest just takes care of business

803
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 4: this weekend.

804
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: Which brings us to a perhaps I guess, the most

805
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: unappealing from just like a stakes perspective match of the

806
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 1: of the week, that is, Chelsea and west Ham. Chelsea

807
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: mightus won sixty three at home west Ham traveling plus

808
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 1: three seventy five. The draw is plus three fifty for

809
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: this one. We are recording this before Chelsea and Tottenham

810
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,400
Speaker 1: on Thursday, so just keep that in mind. Nonetheless, I

811
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,439
Speaker 1: think I just think that this game plays out as

812
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 1: all of us think it will, which is there will

813
00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 1: be a lot of goals and mistakes and just kind

814
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: of weird stuff going on. I could see I could

815
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 1: see a route like a like a five to one

816
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: score line. I could see it being like three to three,

817
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 1: but another one where you could probably just sit back,

818
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: relax and live.

819
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 3: Bet at BJ Yeah, I like over three and a

820
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 3: half plus one twenty. We'd like to see what Chelsea

821
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 3: looks like. Against Tottenham on Thursday. But unless that match

822
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 3: just plays out an absolute snoozer, which I don't really

823
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,359
Speaker 3: expect it to do, Yeah, it should be a very

824
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,359
Speaker 3: back and forth match because you know, West west Ham

825
00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 3: can exploit the one main weekens for Chelsea, which is

826
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,759
Speaker 3: defending in transition right and if you look at what

827
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 3: Chelsea's injury situation is like right now, it's not that

828
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 3: great across their back line there and Zo Forna is

829
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,439
Speaker 3: done for this season, Gusta's out, thiagoa Silva has done,

830
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 3: Ben Chilwells out, Levi cole Well is out and the

831
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 3: obviously reached James has been out for a long time

832
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 3: as well. Over their last twelve matches, Chelsea has conceded

833
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:27,480
Speaker 3: one point nine to five expected goals per ninety minutes

834
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 3: and the ballcarriers with Poketa Kudus Bowen, I mean, they

835
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 3: can definitely exploit and get at this Chelsea defense. The

836
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: flip side though is and it's it still remains true

837
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: and nothing's changed that West Ham just they don't defend anymore.

838
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 3: They're a horrible low block. They have since since the

839
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 3: calendar turned to twenty twenty four. They are allowing two

840
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: point to eight expectacles per ninety minutes. If it was

841
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 3: not for Lutontown, that would be the worst mark in

842
00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: the Premier League. So should be very up and down,

843
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 3: back and forth type match. We know Chelsea's a lot

844
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 3: better playing in transition, so this match kind of favors

845
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 3: them in a way. Obviously west Ham will be sitting

846
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,239
Speaker 3: back in the situation that west Ham is in, and

847
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 3: same thing with Chelsea is they really need to go

848
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 3: for this if they want to get to seventh place

849
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,759
Speaker 3: in a Europa Conference League spot. Because Newcastle has a

850
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 3: game in hand on them and they're up by four points.

851
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 3: So what does west Ham have to lose other than

852
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 3: just going for it and trying to win this match.

853
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: Absolutely nothing to lose. So I like over three and

854
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 3: a half projected close to this match, closer to three

855
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 3: point six three point seven, So decent value on the over.

856
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,320
Speaker 4: Michael, you said, no stakes, I mean Chelsea wins on Thursday,

857
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 4: They're going to be in the top six race.

858
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 1: Here, thank you. I mean, yeah, you're right.

859
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: They win.

860
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 4: I guess like they win both of these matches, they

861
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:50,439
Speaker 4: get to fifty four.

862
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 2: United loses to Palace Newcastle a.

863
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 1: Lot, I should say a lot. It could end up

864
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: just be if it could end up being just as

865
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 1: complete Doud. Yes, And I think that's.

866
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 4: Also west Ham bottom half tickets that some of us

867
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 4: we're trying to get to the window here and we're

868
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 4: grasping a cross because we're running out of teams to

869
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:09,919
Speaker 4: catch them.

870
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 2: It's gonna come down to wolves.

871
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 4: So we're not feeling too great about that. But yeah,

872
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 4: I agree with BJ again. We have a lot of

873
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 4: agreement this week, which is always scary but also always

874
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 4: fought because we're all.

875
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 2: Gonna be rout for the same teams this weekend.

876
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 4: And I have over three and a half goals projected

877
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 4: for this match and don't really understand these Chelsea totals

878
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 4: continuing to just show that this defense is any good,

879
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 4: which is not and continues to be bad.

880
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: Okay, that brings us to our last two matches for

881
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,240
Speaker 1: the match week. I will go nine a m. Eastern

882
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,959
Speaker 1: time Brighton and Villa Brighton plus one ninety at home.

883
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 1: His Beaches said, it does look like this is a

884
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 1: team that is on the beach clearly and has been

885
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 1: on the beach for a little while. Villa plus what

886
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: thirty on the road high is plus two seventy five. Yeah, nothing, Anthony,

887
00:41:57,920 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 1: I mean this.

888
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 2: Total is over three should it be? I don't think so.

889
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 3: If bright go suicidal man to man like, Yeah.

890
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 4: They're still at home though it's still in spary situation.

891
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 4: It's still a Brighton at home and it's still a

892
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 4: Brighton team that has now scored one goal in five

893
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 4: matches and the goal came because the goalie whifted at

894
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 4: the ball on a back pass. And you can even

895
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 4: go further back. They scored an own goal against Forrest.

896
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 4: They scored a first minute screamer from well back against Liverpool.

897
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 4: So that means that they had a three no loss

898
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 4: to Fulham, four no loss to Roma. They had own goal,

899
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 4: they had a real goal against Roma, a real goal

900
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 4: against Liverpool, and then one goal in five matches. They

901
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 4: have failed to create more than one point one x

902
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 4: G in any league match since March second against Fulham,

903
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:50,800
Speaker 4: a three no loss. What's the case for this total

904
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 4: being three point two five? I mean Brighton totals have

905
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 4: been inflated. You bet the under three and a half

906
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 4: last week. I would bet the under again in the

907
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 4: City match given how it played out. We had the

908
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 4: Burnley under, we had the Arsenal and I had the

909
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 4: Brentford Brighton under Liverpool Brighton under. I mean just back

910
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 4: to the well. This team is completely cooked. They're out

911
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 4: of ideas an attack. They don't have anyone who's making

912
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 4: it work, and a Stupidyan is a big loss to

913
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 4: their attack. And that's very evident I think too when

914
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 4: you watch them play and how little they're getting from

915
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 4: their full backs going forward. That was the way to

916
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 4: make up for the fact that their best wingers were hurt.

917
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 4: And now they're both out, and now the fullbacks are out,

918
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,760
Speaker 4: and it's just a whole lot of mediocrity from Brighton.

919
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 4: They passed the ball around, they play nice football, and

920
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 4: then they eventually lose possession before they ever get in

921
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,240
Speaker 4: any dangerous area. It's very Potter Brighton at the beginning

922
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 4: of the season before he left, and then they became

923
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,120
Speaker 4: the super nova under Deservee.

924
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 2: But Villa's not really gonna press them into a ton

925
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 2: of mistakes.

926
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, you combine Villa not pressing

927
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 4: with Brighton not having the talent to exploit Villa's defense.

928
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:50,720
Speaker 2: This total is too high?

929
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 3: Is des Herby like It seems like that he's been

930
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 3: linked to what every job so far, and it seems

931
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 3: like that this you know, relationship with him and Brighton

932
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,279
Speaker 3: is kind of coming to an end. But all of

933
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 3: these jobs keep getting managers hired to them other than him. Well,

934
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 3: is he going to be the manager of Brighton again

935
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 3: next year, because it feels a lot.

936
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 4: Of jobs open or the open cough cough Wood man United,

937
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 4: Hi Roberta to de Derby.

938
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 3: It sounds like they got their heart set on on

939
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 3: Tucul right now. Is from all all the reports that

940
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 3: we've seen, which would make sense, right given what he

941
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 3: you know, obviously he had a bad season at Brighton

942
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 3: quote unquote bad season when Brighton had the best actually

943
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 3: differential for ninety of anybody in Europe. So it seems

944
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 3: like they have their heart set on him. So it's

945
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:43,800
Speaker 3: it's a very fascinating situation because yeah, it definitely feels

946
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 3: like with Brighton right now that this relationship with Derby

947
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 3: has kind of run its course, like at least how

948
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 3: they're playing over the second half of the season here,

949
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 3: and who knows, maybe they'll get an influx of new

950
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,719
Speaker 3: talent and youth next season and we'll be saying, oh

951
00:44:57,760 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 3: my gosh, this Brighton team looks good, but the injury

952
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 3: have just kind of done them in right, like Matumba

953
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 3: being out first and being out, Billy Gilmour being out.

954
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:07,439
Speaker 3: Now Van Hecky is out as well, So like it's

955
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 3: just it's very difficult with this, you know, Brighton team

956
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 3: given all their injuries. But it's a terrible spot for

957
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 3: Villa too, Like they're coming off a match on Thursday

958
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:20,920
Speaker 3: against the Liviiakos. They're terrible on the road, were venturing

959
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 3: towards them being a road favorite here. So yeah, if

960
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 3: I would agree with Anthony and maybe flaying under here

961
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 3: if anything, But like it's a very difficult match to

962
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 3: figure out which side you want to take, So for me,

963
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 3: I'm passing on it.

964
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:38,799
Speaker 4: Let me throw out a dark horse for Deservey Dortmund.

965
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 4: If Doorman doesn't make the final here, which I don't

966
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 4: think they will. We're recording this before the PSG first leg.

967
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 4: If they don't make the final, Urasik His resume is

968
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 4: like they finished fifth in Germany, they made the Champions League.

969
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 4: In the back door, they haven't been good most of

970
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 4: the year. He goes upstairs to a more you know,

971
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 4: like managerial role and they bring in Deserby as the manager.

972
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 4: That's my my prediction, my boat, my underdog story or

973
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 4: like you know, underdiscussed story where he lands makes a

974
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 4: lot of sense if he doesn't end up like United.

975
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: A smalan is also interesting as well. Yes, Michael, back

976
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 3: to Italy, that's probably the answer.

977
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 2: Yes.

978
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: That brings us to the conclusion of our Premier League

979
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:29,279
Speaker 1: section with Manchester United and Crystal Palace. This is gonna

980
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:33,439
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun. The Palace trained baby, it's

981
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: it's it's been a lot of fun. We were all

982
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 1: on them in the perfect situation last last week, the

983
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 1: bye high Palace mode. We bought high and we were

984
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:51,399
Speaker 1: dealt the draw against Fulham one. Yeah, Man pre league,

985
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 1: Premier League winner Jeff Schlupp. But guess what we have

986
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: to kind of have more fun with Palace. Uh just

987
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: a couple of days later, they are plus one forty

988
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 1: favorites at home on the three way line, uh Man

989
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 1: United traveling plus one seventy five. The draw is plus

990
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 1: two seventy five. I would love to know if this

991
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 1: is the first time Crystal Palace has ever been favored

992
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: in a match against Manchester United.

993
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: I would be a lot of money it is.

994
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 1: I would have to imagine that The answer to that

995
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 1: is yes and.

996
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 2: Weeks ago.

997
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, So this is beautiful stuff to see and uh,

998
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 1: it's I think it's a lot of fun to bet

999
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,799
Speaker 1: on this match, and I don't think and that might

1000
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: sound counterintuitive given that Palace is a favorite, so the

1001
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 1: market is obviously adjusted, but I'll tell you why I

1002
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,160
Speaker 1: think it's fun. I think that this match could absolutely

1003
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,200
Speaker 1: be a route in favorite Palace. I think that this

1004
00:47:45,239 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 1: could be an you'd almost imagine it to say it

1005
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: the other way, right, like where oh Manchester United verse

1006
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace United can name it like, I think Palace

1007
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,239
Speaker 1: can name it here, like they could absolutely yet to

1008
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 1: three or four. The over under here set like if

1009
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 1: you want to bet there to be at least three

1010
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: goals in this match, are laying minus one eighty eight

1011
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:11,280
Speaker 1: and that is an indictment on the United defense.

1012
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 3: Right.

1013
00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: We know that United is going to be able to

1014
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 1: score against basically anybody in the Premier League with some

1015
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 1: of their talent and et cetera, their ability and transition.

1016
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: But I think Palace might be able to get to

1017
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: four on their own. So I like Palace on on

1018
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 1: like an alt line here minus one and a half

1019
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 1: at plus three twenty. I'll say it's like my official endorsement,

1020
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 1: because you know, I don't want to get too crazy,

1021
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,479
Speaker 1: but that's where I'm going here. I think Palace can

1022
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: could do something hilarious on Monday Night football. Anthony.

1023
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:41,960
Speaker 4: There's a comparison I think right now that that keeps

1024
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 4: popping into my head, and it's a couple of years ago.

1025
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 2: Brighton played Man United. It was the end of the

1026
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 2: Ragnick era. He was a lane duck.

1027
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 4: They had already been knocked out of the Champions League

1028
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 4: and they were starting to fade into the.

1029
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 2: Finish and they went to Brighton.

1030
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 4: I think it was a Sunday match and the line

1031
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 4: was a pick and we were making jokes like we

1032
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 4: look at how far United is fall and they're pick

1033
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:04,479
Speaker 4: them against Brighton and.

1034
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 2: This was a Brighton team.

1035
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 4: So remember Brighton had that really weird year where they

1036
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,240
Speaker 4: were like sixteenth but their underline numbers were like seventh.

1037
00:49:10,600 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 4: And the following year was Brighton made a clear leap

1038
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 4: into the top half, but they were they were not

1039
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,880
Speaker 4: really in the picture for Europe, but they were like eighth, ninth, tenth,

1040
00:49:19,920 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 4: and Brighton beat the living hell out of them because

1041
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 4: United was on the beach, they didn't care, and they

1042
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 4: were on the road and Brighton was kind of riding

1043
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:29,880
Speaker 4: high into the finish.

1044
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 2: And I think that's kind of similar to.

1045
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 4: What we're seeing here where United is done. You know

1046
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 4: for top four, Top F you're Champions League. They could

1047
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 4: still get Europa League. They probably still will, but ten

1048
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:45,439
Speaker 4: Hog is on danger here and they had this cup

1049
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,840
Speaker 4: final that's really going to determine probably his job in

1050
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 4: their season at the end of the month. So you know,

1051
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 4: when you combine that with all the defensive woes, which

1052
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 4: we've discussed every week on the show, I don't need

1053
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 4: to go into it. Palace team total and I think

1054
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 4: this is a good play to look for some alllines

1055
00:49:58,680 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 4: as well.

1056
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:07,359
Speaker 3: So United against Burnley played Christian Erickson and Maynu as

1057
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 3: their double pivot, and what kept happening is Ericson would

1058
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,239
Speaker 3: always come up and press the opposing midfielder, which would

1059
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 3: just leave Menu on a complete island in the middle

1060
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,920
Speaker 3: of the pitch. And if you've watched Crystal Palace the

1061
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 3: last few weeks, we don't know if ESA's going to play.

1062
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 3: He is questionable for this match, but I would assume

1063
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 3: Olisse would play along with you, is that both they're

1064
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,960
Speaker 3: two number tens in this three four to two one

1065
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 3: continually drop into the half space that has essentially been

1066
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 3: vacated by ericson and they're going to get that ball

1067
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 3: time and time again, and they're gonna play one twos Mateta,

1068
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 3: who's the hottest striker on the planet right now, and

1069
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 3: they are going to run roughhouse on them. I mean

1070
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 3: he said it, Michael. This can get really embarrassing for

1071
00:50:52,120 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 3: United here, like really really embarrassing with how bad they

1072
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 3: have been defensively. Again, they just played a non controlling

1073
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 3: match against Burnley. They got into a back and forth battle.

1074
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 3: Burnley almost scored inside the first thirty seconds of the

1075
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 3: match on just like a simple ball over the top.

1076
00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 3: And like the injuries are still there, there's still no Varan,

1077
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,319
Speaker 3: there's still no Martinez, there's still no Luke Shaw. Like

1078
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 3: it's gonna be Casambiro and Harry maguire again as as

1079
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 3: a double pivot. And guess what this Palace team now presses.

1080
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 3: They counterpressed, and they do it incredibly effectively. So they

1081
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 3: can win balls off United high. They can beat them

1082
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 3: building out of the back, they can beat them in

1083
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:32,959
Speaker 3: transition they got. I said they got an incredibly hot

1084
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:36,520
Speaker 3: striker on their hands right now, so I mean under

1085
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:39,799
Speaker 3: glassner there. Palace is averaging close to one point eight

1086
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:42,960
Speaker 3: expected goals per ninety minutes and as we've seen from United,

1087
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 3: I don't need to go through the stats again, but

1088
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 3: they've held two opponents under one expected goal in twenty

1089
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 3: twenty four. They still only have one clean sheet in

1090
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 3: the Premier League and they have conceded now the third

1091
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 3: most expected goals behind West Ham and Lowtontown. So why

1092
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 3: not just keep fat them until we reached the end

1093
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 3: of the season. Al's team total over one and a

1094
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 3: half For me as well.

1095
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 4: Are just gonna put it out there that the odds

1096
00:52:06,560 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 4: that I have money on United in some capacity in

1097
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:13,319
Speaker 4: the Cup final are astronomically high, probably just team total,

1098
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 4: but they're gonna be so live in that match.

1099
00:52:16,680 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 2: It's gonna be really funny, all right.

1100
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 1: So that does it for the Premier League Before we

1101
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 1: get to the rest of the Europe A reminder that

1102
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 1: wonder goal is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five

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1104
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1105
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00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:34,520
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Speaker 1: three sixty five boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays,

1108
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1109
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,440
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1110
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:45,280
Speaker 1: Check out the boost and see why it's never ordinary.

1111
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 1: Bet three six five disclaimer. You must be twenty one

1112
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: or older. You must be president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1113
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:55,959
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older

1114
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 1: in Kentucky. If you have a gambling problem or you

1115
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 1: know anyone who does and wants help, he's called Wedne

1116
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 1: hundred gambler or Wedne hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms,

1117
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 1: conditions and restrictions apply onto the Bundesliga. You both have

1118
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 1: plays here bj We'll start with you.

1119
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 3: Freiberg gronobat plus one twenty on the road against Cologne.

1120
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:20,479
Speaker 3: Cologne season is pretty much done here, like they're going

1121
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 3: to get relegated. They needed to win against Mines over

1122
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 3: the past weekend. They failed to do that. They drew them.

1123
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:29,919
Speaker 3: But that match against Mines that's just the fourth time

1124
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 3: the season that they've won the expected goals battle and

1125
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 3: thirty some matches in the Bundesliga. There really hasn't been

1126
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:38,600
Speaker 3: like a consistent run of performances here that would get

1127
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:41,359
Speaker 3: them to essentially being, you know, a plus one twenty

1128
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 3: five favorite against a Friburg team that's still battling for

1129
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 3: a Europa League spot, and it's a Fribury team that's

1130
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 3: been playing pretty good over the recent matches. They just

1131
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:52,239
Speaker 3: lost to Wolfsberg over the weekend, created over two expected goals,

1132
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 3: should have won that match, So this is a pretty

1133
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 3: simple team that needs to win to get out of

1134
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 3: relegation zone tax against a team that's still playing for something,

1135
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 3: So you know the obviously, the underlying numbers for Freiberg

1136
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 3: are significantly better than Clone over the full season. So Freiburg,

1137
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 3: John Obett plus one twenty.

1138
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:11,400
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take verta Bremen against my Glodbach boys at

1139
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 4: plus one thirty verte Remen for me projected as the

1140
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:17,919
Speaker 4: better team, much better defensively than glodboch Claud back away

1141
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 4: from home this year have been a train wreck defensively,

1142
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,759
Speaker 4: conceding more than two expected goals, per match and they

1143
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:27,359
Speaker 4: have a minus point seven to seven actually difference per

1144
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,879
Speaker 4: ninety minutes. Really alarming stuff from Glad back away from home,

1145
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 4: and it still.

1146
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:34,320
Speaker 2: Could get them relegated.

1147
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,760
Speaker 4: Probably won't, but they're only four points clear of Mines

1148
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 4: with three matches to play. If they were to lose

1149
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 4: and Mines picked up a couple of wins, Unan plays

1150
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 4: Bokum like, the race could get interesting down there if

1151
00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 4: Mines is able to get a win or really they're

1152
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 4: gonna need two and Mines does play Heidenheim, Wolfsburg Dortmund,

1153
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 4: so we'll have a chance that some wins there. As

1154
00:54:56,239 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 4: far as this match goes, though, I have this like

1155
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 4: plus one fifteen, so at plus one thirty, I'm gonna

1156
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 4: take Verte Bremant at home to UH to get all

1157
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,320
Speaker 4: three points again after they came through for US against

1158
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 4: Osburg last weekend.

1159
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:12,840
Speaker 1: Okay, Italy, Syria, Anthony, you're you're expecting a barn burner

1160
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:14,400
Speaker 1: between Roma and Juve.

1161
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:16,839
Speaker 4: Real quick, though. It's kind of funny. In Germany, there's

1162
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 4: a game this weekend, b JA. I'm sure you saw it,

1163
00:55:19,239 --> 00:55:22,799
Speaker 4: Stutgart versus Bayern Munich. Yes, Stutgart is a plus one

1164
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:26,240
Speaker 4: ten home favorite. I was really excited to bet stutgardters

1165
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 4: to pick him at home and like a beautiful spot.

1166
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 4: I was like, oh, like Byron in the Champions League

1167
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 4: wedge Stutgart you know, kind of finishing strong here even

1168
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 4: though they should have beat Leverkusen and choked it late

1169
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:40,240
Speaker 4: and then they opened as a plus one ten favorite.

1170
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 2: So and clocks, I kind of want to bet Byron.

1171
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 3: I do too. I might end up vtting Byrons.

1172
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 2: Like I don't think Kane's gonna sit.

1173
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 4: Kane never sits, man, that's the thing about him.

1174
00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:53,839
Speaker 2: So Byron is interesting to rest.

1175
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:57,319
Speaker 3: He's not saving his job, so like exactly, So yeah, no,

1176
00:55:57,480 --> 00:56:00,359
Speaker 3: I mean yeah, it's a hilarious line. It's probably, like

1177
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 3: I would say, one of the bigger edges I've ever

1178
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 3: seen in my numbers. This Why is this is this weekend?

1179
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:09,360
Speaker 3: This Byron match? Because obviously the situation they're in. But yeah,

1180
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 3: I mean I I was very tempted to take Real

1181
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 3: Madrid against Associate AD on Friday. Didn't end up doing it,

1182
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 3: but like they went close to plus a half and

1183
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 3: they won, like they played a rotated lineup, but like

1184
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:22,759
Speaker 3: the rotated guys still want to prove themselves. They want

1185
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:24,479
Speaker 3: to play right like, it's not like they don't care.

1186
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:26,399
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll probably end up betting Byron.

1187
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna chase a plus money under Roma Juve.

1188
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 4: Uh, this is one where I do expect Roma to

1189
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 4: rotate through some of its top guys. Attacking wise, Juventus,

1190
00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 4: you know, they play the most boring brand of soccer

1191
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 4: of any of the good teams in Europe, and we

1192
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 4: just saw that last weekend with Milon. They played a

1193
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 4: nil nil out with them, and really for Youuve, like

1194
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 4: they're they're not really playing for anything either, like a

1195
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 4: Leegury seems to be a lame duck. Their attack or

1196
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:54,839
Speaker 4: their defense rather is the by far the best in in.

1197
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 2: All of Italy. Italy.

1198
00:56:57,080 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 4: They can see nothing in terms of big chances, and

1199
00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:01,759
Speaker 4: you saw oh last weekend, even against the Milan team

1200
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 4: that has had major defensive woes, only one one XG

1201
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 4: and a nil nil draw.

1202
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:11,160
Speaker 2: They can see nothing either. So I like under two

1203
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 2: it plus money.

1204
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 4: I think that at most this gets to two unless

1205
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:14,720
Speaker 4: you gives some crazy finishes.

1206
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like a little Friday snoozer. Ter Reino Bologna

1207
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 3: both teams to score No. Minus one thirty five to

1208
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 3: the better defensive teams. Honestly, they played both teams. Teams

1209
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 3: play pretty passively, like they'll play in a mid block

1210
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 3: and they'll kind of press out of it. But like

1211
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 3: in general, this is not going to be a very

1212
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:33,240
Speaker 3: high pace, back and forth type match. Bolognia is very

1213
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:35,320
Speaker 3: slow with their build up out of the back, so

1214
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:38,720
Speaker 3: both teams are conceding zero point eight to two non

1215
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 3: penalty XG for ninety minutes to Reno hasn't scored for

1216
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 3: three matches. Last nine matches. They've only created over one

1217
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 3: expecta gole twice and that was against Nimpoli and Manza.

1218
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 3: They've played matches against Juventus, against Napoli, against all the

1219
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 3: top teams and they failed to create every one expected goals.

1220
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 3: I don't expect them to do that here against Bologna

1221
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:58,520
Speaker 3: and I projected this closer to minus two hundred, So

1222
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 3: both team to score no. Minus three five.

1223
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 1: Okay, we can go to La Liga now Beja, you're

1224
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 1: the only one with anything in stan.

1225
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, how about some more relegation. Tax Al Maria plus

1226
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:15,720
Speaker 3: one on the road against Vacano. Technically Viacano is not

1227
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 3: safe yet from relegation, but they are there eight points

1228
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 3: clear with five matches here to play. But if you

1229
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 3: look through what Viacano has done this season, they don't

1230
00:58:26,640 --> 00:58:30,720
Speaker 3: profile really well as a favorite. There's only been three

1231
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 3: instances where they have created more than one expected goal

1232
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 3: against their opponents. One came against Alabase where they were

1233
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:40,280
Speaker 3: aided by a penalty, another one against Catafe where Katafa

1234
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 3: hit three red cards, and then a snoozey Monday night

1235
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 3: match against Saltaigo who did nothing offensively and Viacona I'm

1236
00:58:46,840 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 3: taking like twenty shots and creating just like one point

1237
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 3: two expected goals. So it's not a great scenario for

1238
00:58:51,800 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 3: them as a favorite, especially laying a full goal here

1239
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 3: at home. People. Through their recent performances, they haven't really

1240
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 3: blown anybody out. And I mean, the thing about these teams, Michael,

1241
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,080
Speaker 3: that have already been relegated is like, yes, you could

1242
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,280
Speaker 3: say they don't care, but all of these guys are

1243
00:59:07,280 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 3: battling for jobs, whether it be in La Liga, Bundesliga,

1244
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 3: whatever it might be, throughout the next season, Like they

1245
00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 3: don't want to go down and play in the second division.

1246
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:17,360
Speaker 3: So I like Almeria here plus one, I think it's

1247
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:20,080
Speaker 3: an inflated line for a team that's already been relegated

1248
00:59:20,320 --> 00:59:22,920
Speaker 3: playing a team that quote unquote needs to win.

1249
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 1: That brings us to league ooh and once again pass yeah.

1250
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:30,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Lil minus one fifteen at home against Leon. You know,

1251
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 3: it's funny how results can kind of skew your perception

1252
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 3: of teams, because if you look at leone, they had

1253
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:40,560
Speaker 3: this horrible start for the season where they're in the

1254
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:44,280
Speaker 3: relegation zone. They'd only won one match really through essentially

1255
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 3: until we got to December. Then from December tenth on

1256
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:49,439
Speaker 3: they have taken the most points of anybody in League

1257
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 3: un behind only PSG or excuse me with PSG, But

1258
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 3: if you look over that timeframe, they only have around

1259
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 3: a plus four non penalty expected gole differential, where as

1260
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 3: LIL it is double that. They're like a plus eight

1261
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:05,960
Speaker 3: point five. So the performances the results have been good

1262
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 3: for Leone, but it's a team that just doesn't defend.

1263
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 3: If you watch their match against PSG, they just got

1264
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 3: rough house, basically just got pinned in their own final

1265
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 3: third layon Lil can do that to them. They're a

1266
01:00:15,400 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 3: really good pressing team, but the best defensive team across

1267
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 3: league in terms of giving up shots, box entries, all

1268
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:24,520
Speaker 3: that good stuff. So I think it's a suppressed line

1269
01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:26,760
Speaker 3: here for a Lay owned team that has played much

1270
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:30,120
Speaker 3: better but in terms of results, but the underlying metrics

1271
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:32,000
Speaker 3: have not been better than their opponents they're facing.

1272
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I always love Leo. We need to win here

1273
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 2: for our top four.

1274
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 1: We do have all right good news that brings us

1275
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 1: to our three. Like underdog Parlay, the season is winding down,

1276
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 1: so we're going to make sure that these are worth

1277
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:46,160
Speaker 1: your while from here at out and Baja, you're doing

1278
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 1: the heavy lifting here. It is a massive, massive ticket

1279
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 1: that will almost certainly win. Five hundred and fifty five

1280
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:56,920
Speaker 1: to one is what this thing is going to come

1281
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 1: out to or thereabout.

1282
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 3: So this is how we won our two hundred one, right,

1283
01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:03,880
Speaker 3: We had to take a giant shot against Manchester City.

1284
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 3: So that's what I'm doing here, and it's Wolves twenty

1285
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:08,800
Speaker 3: five to one. I already spoke about it earlier, but

1286
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 3: we are getting a must win tax inflated line on

1287
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 3: Manchester City against the Wolves team that is really good

1288
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:17,640
Speaker 3: and the injury situation has actually been improving. Pedro NATO's

1289
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 3: really the only notable guy that's going to miss this match.

1290
01:01:20,840 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 3: They have all of their great defenders and midfielders, good

1291
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:26,400
Speaker 3: ball stoppers in the middle of the pitch, and what

1292
01:01:26,440 --> 01:01:29,640
Speaker 3: we've seen from Manchester City is that they've struggled against

1293
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 3: good low blocks recently. You know, even if we go

1294
01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 3: back to the match against Arsenal, like Arsenal played a

1295
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 3: lot of game, basically handed them a ball, played a

1296
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:38,640
Speaker 3: good mid block and they failed to career, won't expect

1297
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:42,040
Speaker 3: a goal. Same thing against Chelsea, same thing against Nottingham Forest.

1298
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 3: So I think Wolves is definitely live here. They beat

1299
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:49,520
Speaker 3: City this season primarily exploiting their one weakness, which is

1300
01:01:49,560 --> 01:01:52,320
Speaker 3: defending in transition. So Kunya and Hwang will definitely be

1301
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 3: live to score in this match. So let's do it.

1302
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:56,960
Speaker 3: Wolves twenty five to one.

1303
01:01:57,160 --> 01:02:01,320
Speaker 4: Myerica has only conceded thirteen goals at home all year

1304
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:04,240
Speaker 4: sixteen matches. They have the second best underlying defensive numbers

1305
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 4: at home. It's the island, man, it's tough to go

1306
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:09,160
Speaker 4: play there, and they are a plus two eight at

1307
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:12,560
Speaker 4: home against Atletico Madrid there. I think their defense when

1308
01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:14,560
Speaker 4: playing at home is so good that they turn every

1309
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 4: match into just like decided by a set piece or two.

1310
01:02:17,600 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 4: And they're not a very explosive team, but I think

1311
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 4: they're live at home against a Letti as the season

1312
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:24,240
Speaker 4: winds down at Letty's like pretty safe for top four.

1313
01:02:24,280 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 4: They're a little inflated, I think because of that top

1314
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 4: four chase.

1315
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:28,320
Speaker 2: But I like my Orca.

1316
01:02:28,600 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 1: All right, Wolves, Majorca and I'll go Spurs here. This

1317
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:34,600
Speaker 1: is just a shot against the Liverpool team I think

1318
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:38,080
Speaker 1: might be at the end of their rope, fatigue, just

1319
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:40,880
Speaker 1: lack of stakes. I guess it's going to be set again.

1320
01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:43,160
Speaker 1: And Spurs are a really good team, so I think

1321
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:47,080
Speaker 1: that even on the road, Tottenham is worth a shot

1322
01:02:47,080 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 1: here to give us a parlay that pays out five

1323
01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:53,200
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty five to one, So would be a

1324
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 1: nice hit at the very to say the very least.

1325
01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:58,400
Speaker 1: All Right, not to our favorite bets for the Premier

1326
01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:00,480
Speaker 1: League this weekend, Anthony, you can go for here.

1327
01:03:00,840 --> 01:03:03,400
Speaker 4: Wolves team total over a half at plus one twenty

1328
01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 4: five against Manchester City. We've seen this for the last

1329
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 4: few weeks. The City defense is vulnerable. They will be

1330
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 4: conceding goals down the stretch run and even if they

1331
01:03:11,160 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 4: outscore everybody and still going to win the title, it's

1332
01:03:13,640 --> 01:03:15,600
Speaker 4: not going to be easy. Because their pressing is off

1333
01:03:16,280 --> 01:03:18,880
Speaker 4: and they look a little bit leggy, and they're struggling

1334
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:21,400
Speaker 4: to keep control, and you're seeing Guardiola even make tactical

1335
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:24,760
Speaker 4: in match tweaks to try to regain control and still

1336
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:26,520
Speaker 4: failing to do it. So I think Wolves are live

1337
01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:29,160
Speaker 4: to score here. They're getting healthier. I think they lose,

1338
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:30,280
Speaker 4: but they score all right.

1339
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 1: For me, I like the Crystal Palace all line of

1340
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:37,200
Speaker 1: minus one and a half at plus three twenty. I

1341
01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:39,440
Speaker 1: think if Palace wins this game against Manchester United, it's

1342
01:03:39,440 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 1: because that they just overrun that incredibly leaky defense that

1343
01:03:43,680 --> 01:03:46,320
Speaker 1: the Red Devils have. This is a team that has

1344
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 1: very very confused it said, very confusing signals throughout the

1345
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:53,400
Speaker 1: entire season United and the way Palace has been trending

1346
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 1: up under the new manager Oliver Klaschner, I do think

1347
01:03:56,000 --> 01:04:00,160
Speaker 1: that they have the kind of tax the tactician to

1348
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:04,840
Speaker 1: get the most out of their talented playmaking and finishing

1349
01:04:05,240 --> 01:04:07,800
Speaker 1: players in the ranks. So I think that they actually

1350
01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:09,720
Speaker 1: have a chance to go to three, four, maybe even

1351
01:04:09,760 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: five goals against this United defense on Monday Night football.

1352
01:04:13,160 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 1: So minus one and a half on Palace for mebj.

1353
01:04:15,400 --> 01:04:18,600
Speaker 3: Everton drawn O Bett even Money on the road Friday

1354
01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:22,240
Speaker 3: afternoon against Loutontown. Essentially, Everton's just a better version of

1355
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:25,160
Speaker 3: what Luton Town wants to be. And the situation that

1356
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:27,479
Speaker 3: Loutontown is in right now is they can't draw this match.

1357
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 3: They have to win, so that means they're going to

1358
01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 3: have to be more aggressive. They're gonna have to press

1359
01:04:30,600 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 3: Everton high, and Everton's going to send a ton of

1360
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 3: long balls over the top against them and win all

1361
01:04:35,280 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 3: of those duels. That's how Sean Diisch beat Liverpool. That's

1362
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 3: how Everton is sut has become such a good team

1363
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:44,480
Speaker 3: in terms of all their underlying metrics. Speaking of underlying metrics,

1364
01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:47,320
Speaker 3: overall for the season, Loutontown has had a minus point

1365
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:49,680
Speaker 3: nine to four expected gold off frenchal per ninety minutes.

1366
01:04:49,880 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 3: Everton's at minus point zero four and even you know,

1367
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:55,040
Speaker 3: if we take from February, Loutontown's got the worst expected

1368
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:57,480
Speaker 3: gold of French in the Premier League comparatively with Everton,

1369
01:04:57,480 --> 01:05:01,360
Speaker 3: who's round even money. Lutontown defensively doesn't do very well.

1370
01:05:01,400 --> 01:05:02,960
Speaker 3: The two things that they're going to need to defend

1371
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:06,040
Speaker 3: Everton here, which is defending crosses. They've allowed the fifteenth

1372
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 3: most into their penalty area in the Premier League, and

1373
01:05:08,960 --> 01:05:11,680
Speaker 3: they are also twelve in actually per piece allowed, so

1374
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 3: that's two knocks against them. We're just getting a must

1375
01:05:15,080 --> 01:05:18,360
Speaker 3: win tax on a relegation team here, so I like

1376
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 3: to play the other side. I like Everton John about

1377
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:21,160
Speaker 3: it even money.

1378
01:05:21,240 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: All right, that does it for this episode of Wondergo.

1379
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: We'll be back from more through the Champions League, at

1380
01:05:27,080 --> 01:05:29,520
Speaker 1: the end of the season, the Euros, et cetera. So

1381
01:05:30,400 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 1: Strap strap in, we're not done just yet. We might

1382
01:05:33,320 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 1: be if we win the five hundred and fifty five

1383
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 1: to one one hundred dog parlay. Then there's no guarantee

1384
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 1: that any of us, including you, will be back listening

1385
01:05:41,000 --> 01:05:43,000
Speaker 1: to podcast, because we'll be rich somewhere on an island,

1386
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 1: maybe MAJORCA. But until then, for Anthony bj best left

1387
01:05:46,880 --> 01:05:48,360
Speaker 1: with all your bets. Thank you to our producer no

1388
01:05:48,480 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 1: and thank you to our sponsors to bet three six five.

1389
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:02,560
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1390
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1391
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 4: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler