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Speaker 2: We're talking about all time highs after the earnings report
Speaker 2: last evening, as the markets dive headfirst into artificial intelligence
Speaker 2: with no looking back here. Apparently, the question is is
Speaker 2: Washington already looking at this in the rearview mirror as
Speaker 2: a missed opportunity. We've seen the administration take swings at AI.
Speaker 2: We've seen attempts by the legislature to tackle AI. Remember
Speaker 2: they had everybody come on in the big executives, from
Speaker 2: Elon Musk to Mark Zuckerberg and so on. Yet there's
Speaker 2: no path here in Congress that can't even figure out
Speaker 2: a way to fund the government. But I'll add this
Speaker 2: news this week, a new swing at the ball bipartisan
Speaker 2: as Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries announced
Speaker 2: together the creation of a twenty four member bi partisan panel.
Speaker 2: This happened just two days ago, tasked with examining how
Speaker 2: Congress should respond to the rise of AI and its
Speaker 2: risks of misinformation, discrimination, copyright infringement, among other potential harms,
Speaker 2: some of which are already creeping into the campaign cycle.
Speaker 2: As we've talked about the deep fakes that could absolutely
Speaker 2: impact the outcome of the election. And that's where we
Speaker 2: start today with Greg Allen. He's the director of the
Speaker 2: wad Wani Center for AI in Advanced Technologies at the
Speaker 2: Center for Strategic and International Studies, with a long career
Speaker 2: in this going back to the Pentagon, and a unique
Speaker 2: sense of how the government is using AI right now.
Speaker 3: Greg.
Speaker 2: It's good to see you, and I appreciate your being
Speaker 2: with us. I'll get more specific with some questions about
Speaker 2: attempts to regulate this, but I guess broadly the question
Speaker 2: is has Washington already missed the opportunity.
Speaker 4: No, I don't think that's the case. The United States
Speaker 4: government does not always jump quickly on every new topic,
Speaker 4: including every new regulatory topic. Sure, but I think there's
Speaker 4: been some genuine speed in this area. And that's true
Speaker 4: both on the congressional side and especially in the executive
Speaker 4: branch side. You know, the White House under the Biden
Speaker 4: administration passed an executive order on AI technology, and we're now,
Speaker 4: you know, past the ninety day mark, and every single
Speaker 4: federal agency, you know, met their deadlines for that ninety
Speaker 4: day period. And I think the House effort should be
Speaker 4: interpreted as the counterpart to what's going on in the Senate.
Speaker 4: And both of these are bip bipartisan initiatives, and both
Speaker 4: of them are aiming at coming up with comprehensive legislation
Speaker 4: sometime this year.
Speaker 2: You sound optimistic, which is great to hear for such
Speaker 2: a fast moving technology and such a slow moving apparatus
Speaker 2: as Congress, as I mentioned, and we can't even figure
Speaker 2: out a funding mechanism right now, never mind helping our
Speaker 2: allies in Ukraine and Israel. What makes you think they
Speaker 2: can get this done?
Speaker 4: Well? Getting it done when, I think would be the
Speaker 4: critical question. In that regard, something is almost certainly going
Speaker 4: to pass, and when that occurs in under what time
Speaker 4: frame is a little bit unclear. It could happen this year,
Speaker 4: although as we get closer to the election, passing big
Speaker 4: pieces of law gets more difficult. It's also possible that
Speaker 4: it could pass during the lame duck period in between
Speaker 4: the election and the inauguration of the next Congress and
Speaker 4: the next president, some folks who will be retiring, you know,
Speaker 4: might be a little bit more open to bipartisan legislation
Speaker 4: and passing stuff that might otherwise be politically difficult. So
Speaker 4: those are passages that could take place in the congressional action.
Speaker 4: On the federal agency action, you're already seeing some movement
Speaker 4: on these areas, you know, after a recent deep fake
Speaker 4: AI generated voice of President Biden that was falsely you know,
Speaker 4: used during a robo call to discourage turnout in one
Speaker 4: of the recent presidential primaries, the Federal Communications Commission has
Speaker 4: already moved to ban the use of AI generated voices
Speaker 4: in electoral robo calls. So some of this stuff can
Speaker 4: move pretty quickly on a piecemeal basis, but on a
Speaker 4: broad basis, you know, going after all foundation models or
Speaker 4: the large sort of general purpose AI systems exemplified by
Speaker 4: products such as chat GPT. You know, of course, developing
Speaker 4: these regulations and developing them in the right way is
Speaker 4: going to take some time.
Speaker 2: To what extent the go to what extent are we
Speaker 2: actually using it already as a government greg you were
Speaker 2: at the Pentagon to see firsthand in the very early
Speaker 2: stages of adopting AI, but I know it can go
Speaker 2: way beyond that. Let's start there though with our Defense department.
Speaker 4: Sure, well, the Department Department of Defenses flagship AI adoption
Speaker 4: initiative originally was something called Project Maven, and that was
Speaker 4: using AI for computer vision capabilities, essentially recognizing what's actually
Speaker 4: taking place in what's present in images and video. Well,
Speaker 4: that got started all the way back in twenty seventeen
Speaker 4: and actually has a great deal to show for its efforts.
Speaker 4: So those types of things in recognizing tanks in satellite
Speaker 4: images or recognizing you know, aircraft in drone images, that
Speaker 4: type of technology is relatively mature at this point for
Speaker 4: certain types of use cases. For the other types of
Speaker 4: AI systems, you know it exemplified as I said by
Speaker 4: chat GPT, the Department of Defense has a task force
Speaker 4: underway called Task Force LIMA that is really studying sort
Speaker 4: of what are the best use cases for this in
Speaker 4: the near term and in the long term.
Speaker 2: Task Force LIMA. We had a conversation with Congressman Seth
Speaker 2: Moulton from his view on the Armed Services Committee. He
Speaker 2: wrote a not ed that was chilling about the use
Speaker 2: of AI in weaponry by the United States and other countries.
Speaker 2: He was calling for an AI Geneva Convention, knowing that
Speaker 2: players like Russia are going to seize on this as
Speaker 2: soon as they can. Do you worry about this getting
Speaker 2: out of control in terms of an AI arms race.
Speaker 4: Well, I think the Geneva Convention is actually kind of
Speaker 4: illustrative as the nature of the problem. You know, the
Speaker 4: Niva Convention defined the key principles underpinning international humanitarian law
Speaker 4: and the law of war, stuff like proportionality in your
Speaker 4: response in the use of military force and ensuring that
Speaker 4: there is military necessity of attacking a target. Well, when
Speaker 4: you've got the Russian military intentionally bombing hospitals in Ukraine,
Speaker 4: intentionally bombing civilian infrastructure, they are a signatory to the
Speaker 4: Geneva Convention and they're openly, willingly violating it in rather
Speaker 4: cavalier terms. So I think the idea that some kind
Speaker 4: of convention is going to stop their adoption of military
Speaker 4: AI and also to stop their unethical use of military AI,
Speaker 4: the prospects are pretty grim, to be frank that said,
Speaker 4: I think there is opportunity among democratically aligned nations, those
Speaker 4: that share the same values the United States government has
Speaker 4: shepherd an initiative around the use of autonomy in weapons
Speaker 4: systems and codifying sort of what is the code of
Speaker 4: conduct for what constitutes responsible use. Of course, it's possible
Speaker 4: to use military AI systems in a way that it
Speaker 4: is unethical, but it's also possible to use your fists
Speaker 4: in a way that is unethical. Fair enough, and I
Speaker 4: think the question sort of then becomes, is there a
Speaker 4: way to actually codify what would constitute ethical behavior? And
Speaker 4: that's the type of work I was engaged in the
Speaker 4: Department of Defense. And now there's more than four dozen
Speaker 4: countries who are signing up to the US view on
Speaker 4: this topic.
Speaker 2: Well, that's fascinating to hear and encouraging, to be honest,
Speaker 2: Greg Allen. The knock on this, by the way, is
Speaker 2: that any attempt to regulate this technology could set back
Speaker 2: the US as a leader in AI. And this is
Speaker 2: what lawmakers frequently here when they bring tech executives to
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. And it makes you wonder if government is
Speaker 2: going to do this or if it ends up being
Speaker 2: a self policing high tech industry.
Speaker 4: Well, I think the most advanced regulatory work in the
Speaker 4: United States is, of course exemplified by the Biden Administration's
Speaker 4: Executive Order. In the European Union, they just recently passed
Speaker 4: the European Union's AI Act, which is actually a much
Speaker 4: broader set of regulations that covers AI in a much
Speaker 4: more horizontal, cross cutting fashion. So they still have to
Speaker 4: pass that version of that bill in all of the
Speaker 4: European Union's languages across all twenty seven countries, but that'll
Speaker 4: probably take place in April, and then various parts of
Speaker 4: this law will start entering into force over the next year,
Speaker 4: two years, three years.
Speaker 2: You know, we cover political campaigns here day in and
Speaker 2: day out, Greg, and we're starting to see you mentioned
Speaker 2: the Joe Biden and we're starting to see some of
Speaker 2: the examsamples of AI creep into at least that part
Speaker 2: of campaigning. Some are actually using AI as an organizing tool.
Speaker 2: But when it comes to deep fakes and trying to
Speaker 2: make a message out of things, I wonder if if
Speaker 2: you see that becoming a greater problem between now and
Speaker 2: the November.
Speaker 4: Election, certainly, and in countries around the world that are
Speaker 4: having their elections or have already had their elections, such
Speaker 4: as for example, Bangladesh. Deep fakes have already played a
Speaker 4: reasonably large role in the electoral politics. Of course, if
Speaker 4: you can generate high quality false audio or false video
Speaker 4: of the candidate in question doing something controversial or embarrassing
Speaker 4: or unethical, you can get that now through social media
Speaker 4: or through other channels in front of a lot of
Speaker 4: potential voters. And so I think what the US government
Speaker 4: and what governments around the world are thinking through is
Speaker 4: what is actually available in the legal and regulatory toolbox
Speaker 4: to belase this type of activity. You know, some types
Speaker 4: of speech you're obviously protected, other types are not in
Speaker 4: an elections context, and so they're trying to figure out
Speaker 4: what is the what's available in the regulatory toolbox, and
Speaker 4: what's actually likely to be affected.
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could come spend some time with us.
Speaker 2: Greg Allen a voice of experience on artificial intelligence and
Speaker 2: a conversation I hope you'll think about when you hear
Speaker 2: reports of Nvidia soaring to all time highs today. This
Speaker 2: is the conversation that we're having about this in Washington.
Speaker 2: He's the director of the Wadwani Center for AI and
Speaker 2: Advanced Technologies, the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Greg,
Speaker 2: thank you as we bring it to the campaign trail.
Speaker 2: Now we're just a couple of days out from the
Speaker 2: South Carolina primary. I wanted to talk to you, Laura Davison,
Speaker 2: who is on the ground in South Carolina preparing for
Speaker 2: what could be a very ugly experience for Nicki Haley
Speaker 2: in her home state. Laura, it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: All of the data, all the polling that we've seen
Speaker 2: so far would suggest that Nicki Haley could lose by
Speaker 2: anywhere from twenty to thirty points. What's it feel like
Speaker 2: on the ground.
Speaker 5: You know that really is is the message and kind
Speaker 5: of what you're feeling. Obviously, this is Haley's new state.
Speaker 5: She's served as governor here for two terms, and she
Speaker 5: is popular. She was very popular as governor and remains
Speaker 5: to me. But people still want Trump and you see
Speaker 5: that reflected in the pooling. That's not that they dislike Haley,
Speaker 5: but they just want Trump more. Haley is really fighting here.
Speaker 5: She's on the airway, she's spending lots of money on advertising,
Speaker 5: she is criss crossing the state having a bunch of events.
Speaker 5: By contrast, you see Trump not even in the state today.
Speaker 5: He has an event later in Tennessee which doesn't vote
Speaker 5: until Super Tuesday, So that really tells you how both
Speaker 5: candidates are feeling about their chances. Trump very confident, making
Speaker 5: Haley fighting it out.
Speaker 2: She's making news on in vitro fertilization following this ruling
Speaker 2: from Alabama's Supreme Court. The headline on our story says,
Speaker 2: at all embryos to me are babies, Laura, she's talking
Speaker 2: about her own personal experience. Is this resonating locally?
Speaker 5: Yeah? This is has been interesting. You know, she has
Speaker 5: been very nuanced on abortion of you know, kind of
Speaker 5: saying that she is a personally pro life but doesn't
Speaker 5: want to judge others who are not, and also looking
Speaker 5: at clear that you know, some of these bands in
Speaker 5: the federal level just aren't likely you know here in
Speaker 5: you know, saying that embryos or baby, she's taking a
Speaker 5: little bit more of a conservative tax. But she also
Speaker 5: was asked about that later last night and kind of
Speaker 5: seemed to walk that back and said, you know, look,
Speaker 5: you know that that that she wants parents to be
Speaker 5: able to do what they can with you know, in
Speaker 5: vitro fertilization and the embryos that they create, much like
Speaker 5: she and her husband were able to do to conceive
Speaker 5: their children.
Speaker 2: You mentioned her husband, Donald Trump's been calling him out.
Speaker 2: He's deployed in the military overseas, has been calling him
Speaker 2: out for not being present in the campaign. That that
Speaker 2: could cut both ways. With the number of active military
Speaker 2: and veterans in South Carolina, Laura, are people talking about it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's something that's gotten a lot of coverage and
Speaker 5: you've seen that can really really get you know, emotional
Speaker 5: in the campaign trail and asked about that. You know,
Speaker 5: this is a very heavily military area. Uh, you know,
Speaker 5: there's a there's a lot of folks here. But also
Speaker 5: you see time and time again, you know, no matter
Speaker 5: who Trump goes out where people don't dig him as
Speaker 5: part of his brand. You know, whether he's going after
Speaker 5: people with you know, mental disabilities or you know, gold
Speaker 5: Star families or you know, deployed in the active military members,
Speaker 5: it doesn't really seem to to rub off on him.
Speaker 2: That's something. When are we going to find out? This
Speaker 2: is gonna, I guess be an early call if we're
Speaker 2: talking about a twenty thirty point spread here, Laura.
Speaker 5: Yes, we saw early calls both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: You know, polls closed in South Carolina at seven pm
Speaker 5: Eastern time on Saturday night, and I anticipate will be
Speaker 5: seeing results and perhaps a call very shortly after that, like.
Speaker 2: As you say, eight oh one, maybe as we saw
Speaker 2: to your point in the two early states, is turnout
Speaker 2: going to be part of this story.
Speaker 5: Turnout will be part of this story, but it's not
Speaker 5: really the biggest part. You know, there's there will be
Speaker 5: some potential, you know, for things like next week we'll
Speaker 5: have Michigan where you have again one of those more
Speaker 5: open primaries where you know Democrats or independence could vote
Speaker 5: South Carolina. It's really you know, the cake is baked here,
Speaker 5: and you know that may be able to be able
Speaker 5: to make some of the deficit by having more supporters
Speaker 5: come out or have some Democrats who liked her as governor,
Speaker 5: but it won't it won't change the game.
Speaker 2: The cake is baked. When Laura Davison says that, you know,
Speaker 2: it's real great to see you or appreciate your reporting
Speaker 2: and joining us from South Carolina. We'll stay in touch
Speaker 2: with Laura as we approach primary day on Saturday, and
Speaker 2: we'll be able to distill the results for you. Of course,
Speaker 2: on Monday, Laura makes a great point. As soon as
Speaker 2: we get back to it. Next week, we're talking about
Speaker 2: the Michigan primary that's on Tuesday, and it's Joe Biden
Speaker 2: we're going to be watching this time.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: Welcome to Bloomberg Radio and TV. Here on Balance of Power.
Speaker 2: It is the Thursday edition. I'm Joe Matthew in New York.
Speaker 2: Kayley lines with me in Washington, d C. Where Kaylee
Speaker 2: Joe Biden has got to be feeling damned if he does,
Speaker 2: damned if he doesn't. When it comes to the border,
Speaker 2: we're talking about unilateral executive action, which is exactly what
Speaker 2: Republicans were calling for following the meltdown of the border
Speaker 2: deal on the Hill, and apparently the Speaker doesn't like it.
Speaker 2: He's calling it a gimmick.
Speaker 6: An election, youre gimmick, specifically considering that, yes, this is
Speaker 6: a big problem for an incumbent president in an election year,
Speaker 6: knowing he has to deal with the border issue if
Speaker 6: he wants to potentially improve his approval on that front.
Speaker 6: And what were we hearing from Congressional Republicans when they
Speaker 6: were shooting down the deal that sent negotiators had struck
Speaker 6: with the White House. It was the idea that the
Speaker 6: president already had this authority. He had the authority to
Speaker 6: make changes at the border. He just wasn't using it.
Speaker 6: And I guess the question is is he going to
Speaker 6: be using it now? To help us answer this, Bloomberg
Speaker 6: Stordan Fabian is here with me in our Washington, d C.
Speaker 5: Studios.
Speaker 6: He of course covers the White House for us, So
Speaker 6: Bloomberg is reporting, we're looking at the Section twelve, two
Speaker 6: hundred and twelve f powers that were used by former
Speaker 6: President Trump and now maybe used by his Democratic successor.
Speaker 6: What exactly are these things? What is the president looking
Speaker 6: to do here?
Speaker 7: The administration is looking at a few things, trying to
Speaker 7: make it harder for migrants to claim asylum at the border,
Speaker 7: and trying to sort of stop the flow if crossings
Speaker 7: get to a certain level.
Speaker 3: And as you mentioned, it.
Speaker 7: Would be quite controversial because those are the same powers
Speaker 7: the administration is looking at that Donald Trump used to
Speaker 7: invoke the ban on travelers some mostly majority Muslim countries.
Speaker 3: And it's a difficult balance for Biden.
Speaker 7: On the one hand, he's certainly moved to the right
Speaker 7: since twenty twenty one when he promised to take down
Speaker 7: Donald Trump's immigration agenda because of the situation this year
Speaker 7: and how politically toxic it is for him. At the
Speaker 7: same time, he has a lot of voters in his base,
Speaker 7: Latino voters, progressives who don't want to see him make
Speaker 7: moves like this, So he has to balance those priorities
Speaker 7: here going forward. I should mention that it's not a
Speaker 7: certainty he does take this executive action right now. It's
Speaker 7: something that's just being considered within the administration.
Speaker 2: That's important to note because it's already getting reaction out
Speaker 2: of the Speaker of the House. And I wonder what
Speaker 2: you make of the pushback here, Jordan. Conservatives have been
Speaker 2: asking Joe Biden to use executive action to deal with
Speaker 2: the border. Here the Speaker's calling it an election your gimmick,
Speaker 2: as we just said, Is there something further is that
Speaker 2: they want Title forty two back in place. What would
Speaker 2: make Capitol Hill. Republicans happy here.
Speaker 7: It's an impossible question to answer, Joe. I mean, their
Speaker 7: stance on this has been totally bizarre. The goalposts keep
Speaker 7: moving up and down the field. To summarize Speaker Johnson's position,
Speaker 7: you can't have legislation because the president can do executive action.
Speaker 7: And you also can't have executive action because that's an
Speaker 7: election you're gimmick, which, by the way, proves that Joe
Speaker 7: Biden can't be trusted to negotiate legislation. I mean, it's
Speaker 7: like talking in circles here. So you can see why
Speaker 7: the White House is so frustrated with him because their
Speaker 7: position is constantly changing. And you know, to your question
Speaker 7: of what they want, I don't think they know what
Speaker 7: they want either. They might not want anything. They might
Speaker 7: want the current situation to remain status quo and use
Speaker 7: the chast of the border as a political weapon against
Speaker 7: Joe Biden and Democrats.
Speaker 6: Well, but to your point about the messaging we've gotten
Speaker 6: from Republicans in the House, to go back to this
Speaker 6: idea that they have maintained that the president has this
Speaker 6: authority and he wasn't using it. If Biden then decides
Speaker 6: to exercise that authority. Isn't he proving their point and
Speaker 6: could face blowback for just doing so too late?
Speaker 3: He certainly could. I mean you can look at it
Speaker 3: that way.
Speaker 7: I think you can look at it the other way,
Speaker 7: which is that he's exhausted all the options and this
Speaker 7: is what he has to do. And look, I mean
Speaker 7: both sides I think have changed their position on this
Speaker 7: should be mentioned. The House Republicans one of the first
Speaker 7: thing they did was past HR two, which was this
Speaker 7: extremely hardline border bill, and so that would suggested they
Speaker 7: also believe that legislation was necessary to fix the problem.
Speaker 3: At the border.
Speaker 7: And look, I've covered immigration for a long time. A
Speaker 7: lot of presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump have taken executive action.
Speaker 7: What's been proven is always on stronger legal ground to
Speaker 7: do legislation because these executive actions get tied up in
Speaker 7: lawsuits and a lot of them get struck down. So
Speaker 7: that's I think of the point that the President was
Speaker 7: trying to make that he needs Congress's authority to make
Speaker 7: these changes permanent and make them real.
Speaker 2: There we have it from Jordan Fabian. Good to see
Speaker 2: reporting from the White House for Bloomberg every day in
Speaker 2: Washington I'm Joe Matthew and New York Kiley's of course
Speaker 2: in Washington with Jordan and Mohammed Yunis. I'm looking forward
Speaker 2: to this conversation. Always, we learned something from Mohammad, the
Speaker 2: editor in chief at Gallup Kayley, because we're talking about
Speaker 2: a number of different angles on Joe Biden right now.
Speaker 2: It's not just the border, it's also Israel as he
Speaker 2: heads for the primary in Michigan next week. Add the economy,
Speaker 2: and we're still looking at underwater approval ratings as actual
Speaker 2: voters hit the polls.
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's absolutely right. There is a number of issues,
Speaker 6: arguably that are working against the incumbent president, not even
Speaker 6: to speak of his age, which is something Joe that frankly,
Speaker 6: he cannot change. He is an octagenarian and that is
Speaker 6: just fact, and the vast majority of voters and consistent
Speaker 6: polling we are seeing think he is too old to
Speaker 6: serve another term as president. Granted, there are a number
Speaker 6: of individuals who also think that former President Trump, the
Speaker 6: likely Republican nominee, is too old, but that's not something
Speaker 6: you can fix with policy.
Speaker 2: It is what it is that's right. As opposed to
Speaker 2: the economy, where you can have a policy, and this
Speaker 2: president likes to call it Bidenomics, as he's adopted that
Speaker 2: moniker put forth by the Wall Street Journal, and some
Speaker 2: folks don't think that's a good thing, Kayley. The consistent
Speaker 2: disconnect between the economy and approval ratings and what people
Speaker 2: think of Joe Biden's handling of the econom of me
Speaker 2: has just been an unavoidable story for a Securit Bloomberg
Speaker 2: and it's likely to carry through the campaign.
Speaker 6: Absolutely, And so let's carry on the conversation now. Joining
Speaker 6: me in studio here in Washington is Mohammad Unis, who
Speaker 6: is the editor in chief of gallupt. Mohammed, great to
Speaker 6: see you. As always, Joe and I were both really
Speaker 6: taken aback to some extent in both Iowa and New
Speaker 6: Hampshire these early Republican primary contests where we were on
Speaker 6: the ground finding out that maybe it wasn't the economy
Speaker 6: stupid as much as it was immigration as voters were
Speaker 6: going to make their selection in the polls. Have we
Speaker 6: seen the economy now actually trumped in terms of an issue?
Speaker 6: What does Gallup's polling suggest.
Speaker 8: Well, historically, and we've had this conversation before the economy
Speaker 8: has been kind of the most potent topic. But it's
Speaker 8: interesting that you mentioned immigration because in the next coming days,
Speaker 8: what we're going to be doing is releasing our most
Speaker 8: important problem question that we ask every month, and right now,
Speaker 8: immigration is the open ended answer of the most important
Speaker 8: album facing America by twenty eight percent of Americans, and
Speaker 8: that is a very significant increase just coming up in
Speaker 8: the last several months. So as the situation at the
Speaker 8: border gets more critical, I think this topic is going
Speaker 8: to absolutely be coming up time and again. The other
Speaker 8: point on immigration that's interesting is when we ask people
Speaker 8: why do you disapprove of President Biden, one of the
Speaker 8: most important and frequently mentioned subjects is in fact immigration,
Speaker 8: second to which only is how he's managing the economy.
Speaker 8: So both the economy and immigration I think are going
Speaker 8: to be really critical for Americans. They have been in
Speaker 8: the past less immigration, but I think what's happening right
Speaker 8: now is pretty consistent. And also other data points show
Speaker 8: that more Americans, beyond just folks who are traditionally concerned
Speaker 8: about immigration, are growing more concerned.
Speaker 3: About the situation right now.
Speaker 8: Another data point we'll be releasing soon is that right now,
Speaker 8: a majority of Americans I believe it's fifty five percent
Speaker 8: of those that are dissatisfied with the state of immigration
Speaker 8: in the country want to see less people coming into
Speaker 8: the country. And that's also a relative high when you
Speaker 8: look at the past several years to a decade. So
Speaker 8: immigration is absolutely perking up as a more potent subject
Speaker 8: for people as they think about this election.
Speaker 2: Well, for voters who are going to be making their
Speaker 2: decisions based on the economy, Muhammad, it's not looking good
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden. As you wrote recently, political economic indicators
Speaker 2: not promising for the president. Sub fifty percent presidential job
Speaker 2: ratings have usually resulted in electoral defeat. So what are
Speaker 2: we talking about here.
Speaker 3: President Biden?
Speaker 8: Right now, looking at historical metrics, and my colleague JFF
Speaker 8: Jones did a great run up of all of the
Speaker 8: really important five to six metrics that we've looked at
Speaker 8: with previous presidents at similar moments in their presidency seeking reelection,
Speaker 8: He's behind almost every single one of them on every
Speaker 8: single metric, with the exception of President Carter.
Speaker 3: On some of them, he definitely is behind.
Speaker 8: And I think that's a really important thing to realize
Speaker 8: and keep in the forefront of our minds as we
Speaker 8: look to November. However, we're also seeing now the third
Speaker 8: month of continued improvement in American's economic confidence in the
Speaker 8: situation with the economy here at home, So our economic
Speaker 8: confidence index as Americans to think about the economy right
Speaker 8: now and where do they think it's going, essentially, and
Speaker 8: this will be the third month where we've seen an improvement.
Speaker 8: So that's moving in the right direction, But a lot
Speaker 8: of these other traditional historic metrics are not promising for
Speaker 8: President Biden. His three year average at thirty nine point
Speaker 8: eight percent has him behind everybody but Carter at this
Speaker 8: point in their presidency. And that number, now we're going
Speaker 8: to release later this afternoon, will be thirty eight, which
Speaker 8: is our new number that actually isn't published yet, but
Speaker 8: when we come out with that, that means that he's
Speaker 8: now almost two points below his own three year average
Speaker 8: at this point in the campaign.
Speaker 6: Raises the question of what he is going to be
Speaker 6: able to campaign on or to try to do to
Speaker 6: improve his image, What issues can work in his favor.
Speaker 6: And I want to ask you about abortion specifically, because
Speaker 6: we know that has resulted in very high voter turnout
Speaker 6: in Democratic victories in the midterms and then some other
Speaker 6: special elections across a number of states. And of course
Speaker 6: we've seen just within the last week in Alabama the
Speaker 6: Supreme Court there ruling that an embryo is a child,
Speaker 6: a life that must be protective protected, calling into question
Speaker 6: IVF treatments, fertility treatments that even conservatives have been very
Speaker 6: public about supporting broadly this kind of fertility treatment is supportive.
Speaker 6: How do you think that may serve as a catalyst
Speaker 6: come this November, when we're even further out from the
Speaker 6: overturning of Roe versus Weight, and yet you're still feeling
Speaker 6: the effects with new developments like this one.
Speaker 8: It's interesting that this is a topic now that will
Speaker 8: be implicated into the public conscience really through local decision making, right,
Speaker 8: because that's where a lot of these things happened as
Speaker 8: a situation you just mentioned. Overall, what we found in
Speaker 8: our decades old trends. After the Dobbs decision, America has
Speaker 8: increasingly become slightly, not dramatically, but more identifying more as
Speaker 8: pro choice, and those who are experiencing dissatisfaction with the
Speaker 8: state of abortion laws want to see less, not more
Speaker 8: restrictive laws in the country.
Speaker 3: You know, Roe v.
Speaker 8: Wade was an interesting case in that over six and
Speaker 8: ten Americans didn't want it to didn't want to see
Speaker 8: it overturned, so it was by nature a uniquely unpopular decision.
Speaker 8: What's interesting is that since then, what we've seen is
Speaker 8: a slight cooling of those temperaments. So, for example, people
Speaker 8: identified as pro choice, it was fifty five percent last year,
Speaker 8: it's down to fifty two percent this year. So it's
Speaker 8: that cooling you see consistently across those metrics. The other
Speaker 8: thing that's important to keep in mind is that people
Speaker 8: who identify as pro life are also on the uptick now,
Speaker 8: So we're kind of a recalibration moment in terms of
Speaker 8: public opinion reacting to the Roe v.
Speaker 3: Wade overthrow.
Speaker 8: But again, the more that these state decisions bring this
Speaker 8: topic back into focus, the more the significant. Now twenty
Speaker 8: eight percent of Americans that say that the candidate they
Speaker 8: vote were has to share their views, and that's increased
Speaker 8: dramatic notably since Roe v.
Speaker 3: Wade. Those voters are going to be.
Speaker 8: Mobilized by that national focus and it's going to show
Speaker 8: in their vote.
Speaker 2: Pretty incredible to think about it, But the State of
Speaker 2: the Union address is two weeks from tonight, Mohammed. In
Speaker 2: our remaining moment here, based on your metrics, when the
Speaker 2: President says the state of the Union is strong, while
Speaker 2: the majority of Americans not believe.
Speaker 8: Him, well, most Americans have been dissatisfied with the state
Speaker 8: of affairs in the United States now for a quite
Speaker 8: a long time, for years, and that predates President Biden.
Speaker 8: So I think that's going to be a hard sell
Speaker 8: just for the average public. What's really going to be
Speaker 8: interesting politically is how many of the folks that consider
Speaker 8: themselves to be independents will be drawn by his argument
Speaker 8: and to what degree outcome or really turnout is going
Speaker 8: to determine how this election ultimately goes.
Speaker 3: As with all elections, but.
Speaker 8: Most Americans are pretty negative on the state of national
Speaker 8: politics and national policy on many fronts immigration, abortion. I mean,
Speaker 8: it breaks on each side, but I don't think just
Speaker 8: one speech is going to get that done.
Speaker 2: We're always smarter for some time with Mohammad. Units great
Speaker 2: to see you, Mohammad. Thanks for coming by our Washington bureau.
Speaker 2: As always, the editor in chief at Gallup, I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew in New York, Kayley Lines in DC. We assemble
Speaker 2: our panel next for their take on what we're talking
Speaker 2: about here. Lester Munson and Pat Dennis are on the way.
Speaker 2: In This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 6: Welcome back to Balance of Power on both Bloomberg Television
Speaker 6: and radio, where we always have our eyes on the
Speaker 6: polls on this program as we get closer and closer
Speaker 6: to not just the upcoming primary contest in South Carolina,
Speaker 6: but ultimately what's looking likely to be a general election
Speaker 6: matchup between Trump and Biden come November. And yet, Joe,
Speaker 6: we also have to consider who else might be on
Speaker 6: the ballot come November, because a new Quinnipiac poll that
Speaker 6: came out yesterday showed if it's Biden Trump, Biden wins
Speaker 6: forty nine to forty five. When you add third parties
Speaker 6: into the mix. Guess who gets fifteen percent?
Speaker 3: Huh.
Speaker 2: This is fascinating to me, our FK Junior, Kaylee. We've
Speaker 2: been hearing Democrats and many of them on this program,
Speaker 2: Nash teeth ring hands over the idea of a no
Speaker 2: labels candidate, and we could still get one, presumably after
Speaker 2: Super Tuesday, but much less chatter about this man fifteen percent.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you're reading into these polls to
Speaker 2: the extent that we should be here on a national
Speaker 2: poll this early on, but that's a real number, Kley,
Speaker 2: and it would put him on stage, I believe, in
Speaker 2: a general election debate, which is something to consider at
Speaker 2: this point. That's where we want to start with our panel.
Speaker 2: Lester Munson is with US Republican Strategist b g R Group,
Speaker 2: alongside Pat Dennis, Democratic strategist. He's the president of American Bridge. Pat,
Speaker 2: of all the things that keep you up at night,
Speaker 2: is it No Labels or our RFK junior that could
Speaker 2: provide the real nightmare?
Speaker 9: It's absolutely both of them, to be clear. Lots of
Speaker 9: things keep me up at night, but they both come
Speaker 9: back down to this fundamental Trump math problem, which is
Speaker 9: he can't win unless he's able to divide the anti
Speaker 9: Trump coalition. And you know, at American Bridge, we've been
Speaker 9: digging through rfk's financial filings and it's no surprise that
Speaker 9: one of the biggest owners that Donald Trump is also
Speaker 9: the biggest owner at RFK Superman, So it is a
Speaker 9: real worry for us. It's something we're taking extremely seriously.
Speaker 9: But sort of the nice thing about RFK is voters
Speaker 9: who don't know anything about him tend to be the
Speaker 9: ones who have who support him. The second they learn
Speaker 9: anything about his positions, his personality, the things he's done,
Speaker 9: they flee the RFK train pretty quickly. So that's really
Speaker 9: what we're focused on, is being sure people are aware
Speaker 9: of his extreme positions.
Speaker 6: Well, Lester, it raises the question of people are just
Speaker 6: pulling and saying, Okay, yeah, I vote for that guy
Speaker 6: because he's just the alternative that's there on the piece
Speaker 6: of paper, on the list of options that isn't Trump
Speaker 6: or Biden.
Speaker 10: Yeah. I have to say I find mister Kennedy to
Speaker 10: be a little strange and some of his positions to
Speaker 10: be a little bit out there, And I think his
Speaker 10: success is largely due to the fact that the incumbent
Speaker 10: is so weak and people are looking for alternatives. Mister Kennedy,
Speaker 10: I think what is it age seventy two seems to
Speaker 10: have some youthful vigor compared to the other candidates. Maybe
Speaker 10: that's a big factor here.
Speaker 2: Well, he's out there doing pushups in the street for
Speaker 2: you know, social media videos. Pat, is that what's in
Speaker 2: store for Joe Biden? Here more more topless days on
Speaker 2: the beach? How does he deal with the age issue?
Speaker 9: I mean, the real contrast to make here is whether
Speaker 9: or not you're a serious politician or not. And with RFK,
Speaker 9: like we've seen his absolutely disgusting positions on vaccines, really
Speaker 9: spreading dangerous misinformation that the vast majority of the country
Speaker 9: absolutely rejects. And then you know, it's just a grab
Speaker 9: bag of positions across the board that people sort of loath.
Speaker 9: So yeah, he wants this to be a campaign about
Speaker 9: you know, Instagram posts or whatever. But ultimately he has
Speaker 9: to run against the natural president who's solving problems for people.
Speaker 6: Well, let's talk about the actual president, because we were
Speaker 6: just having a conversation in our prior segment about what
Speaker 6: he could do when it comes to the border. Pat,
Speaker 6: he's talking about or at least the administration is considering
Speaker 6: executive action that would bring about similar policies, if not
Speaker 6: the same as what we saw in the Trump administration.
Speaker 6: And this is a democratic president who came into office
Speaker 6: singing a very different tune on immigration in the border
Speaker 6: issue than he's singing now. Is this just political reality
Speaker 6: for him and how's it going to go down with
Speaker 6: his party?
Speaker 9: Well, I think the important thing to know here is
Speaker 9: that the problem with the Muslim band wasn't which section
Speaker 9: of law he used. The problem was it was a
Speaker 9: non constitutional, racist, xenophobic policy that was completely illegal and
Speaker 9: disgusting and a moral Now actually using the laws of
Speaker 9: the United States, as he's been forced to do by
Speaker 9: having an intrangent Republican party who refuses to sign legislation.
Speaker 9: The American people support using the laws that are on
Speaker 9: the books in a way that is ethical and responsible
Speaker 9: and all the things you know, bipartisan that Joe Biden
Speaker 9: has shown you so good at over years.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you both about what's going on
Speaker 2: in Michigan. This is going to be interesting as we
Speaker 2: all obsess over South Carolina and it appears to be
Speaker 2: a predetermined outcome here in favor of Donald Trump. Joe
Speaker 2: Biden's kind of worried about what goes on in Michigan.
Speaker 2: He's dispatched high level officials from the administration to go
Speaker 2: to that state to talk to Arab leaders Arab American
Speaker 2: voters who helped to deliver a win in Michigan for
Speaker 2: Joe Biden in twenty twenty. Rashida Talib is now behind
Speaker 2: this uncommitted vote next week, encouraging Democrats to not vote
Speaker 2: for the incumbent. Here, Pat, how much of a problem
Speaker 2: does he have in Michigan? What's this going to look
Speaker 2: like on Tuesday?
Speaker 9: Well, you know, the Democratic Party, we're a big, happy family.
Speaker 9: And if that's anything like my family, sometimes you throw
Speaker 9: a plate of food across the table at Thanksgiving, but
Speaker 9: you know, everybody comes back to play poker afterwards. At
Speaker 9: least if you're in my family. Sounds like a fun
Speaker 9: Finerald Trump is just oh yeah, Donald Trump is just
Speaker 9: too dangerous. We will come together in November to defeat him.
Speaker 9: And look, Joe Biden's doing the right thing. You need
Speaker 9: to take states like Michigan seriously. You know, at American Bridge,
Speaker 9: this sort of the core of our program is focused
Speaker 9: on states like Michigan, also Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because they're
Speaker 9: really gonna decide the election.
Speaker 6: Well, it makes me wonder Lester. Also, as we talk
Speaker 6: about voters who may be more reluctant to vote for Biden.
Speaker 6: Does that make them more likely to vote for Trump?
Speaker 6: Is that really the point to point thing we should
Speaker 6: be drawing, or is it just that this is going
Speaker 6: to be a turnout problem at the end of the day.
Speaker 10: You know, so far it looks a lot like a
Speaker 10: turnout election. We're only in February, though, and no one's
Speaker 10: voting in the general election in February. There's primaries going on.
Speaker 10: As much as the Democrats tried to avoid having one
Speaker 10: at all, they're having to go through that process. Also, once,
Speaker 10: I presume, at some point here in the summer, once
Speaker 10: we're pivot to the conventions and the actual general election,
Speaker 10: that these candidates, mister Biden and presumably mister trumpel though
Speaker 10: maybe Ambassador Haley will make a case to those independent
Speaker 10: swing voters. I sure would like to see that. The
Speaker 10: conundrum for the President in Michigan is very telling. His
Speaker 10: foreign policy is not what he's talking about to a
Speaker 10: lot of audiences in the United States. He is basically
Speaker 10: supporting the Israeli government in their actions in Gaza, which
Speaker 10: by the way, I think is the right thing to do.
Speaker 10: That's not what he's saying back home. He's trying to
Speaker 10: kind of have his cake and eat it too here.
Speaker 10: I think people are seeing through that and they're a
Speaker 10: little skeptical about what they're hearing.
Speaker 2: Pat, I'm curious what you think about the primary itself.
Speaker 2: I know you see Democrats winning Michigan, although it was
Speaker 2: only by one hundred and fifty one hundred and fifty
Speaker 2: five thousand votes in twenty twenty, with the vast majority
Speaker 2: of the state's two hundred thousand Muslim voters going for Biden.
Speaker 2: But is there a markin he needs to worry about
Speaker 2: if that uncommitted vote reaches a certain level, does that
Speaker 2: send a message that makes his life more difficult next week?
Speaker 9: Well, at American Bridge, we think about Michigan pretty much
Speaker 9: every day. Primaries are primaries. It's extremely it's extremely important
Speaker 9: that we win this in November. And the what Joe
Speaker 9: Biden is doing, you know, sending people focusing on the state,
Speaker 9: focusing on jobs in the audio industry, focusing on infrastructure,
Speaker 9: this is all the stuff that's going to win it
Speaker 9: for him. Now, you know, this is a primary. We're
Speaker 9: in February. I keep reminding people we're very early in
Speaker 9: the campaign, but ultimately, you know, you need to run
Speaker 9: the campaign, and you need to need to come in strong.
Speaker 6: Well, it's early, and at this early stage we do
Speaker 6: see that the president has a very large war chest.
Speaker 6: Once the January figures came in Lester we learned he
Speaker 6: had raised forty two million dollars, he was now sitting
Speaker 6: on a pile of about one hundred and thirty million dollars.
Speaker 6: Whereas for the Trump campaign, they spent more than they
Speaker 6: raised and we saw millions of dollars going out the
Speaker 6: door once again to pay for legal fees. As we
Speaker 6: talk about how it's going to require real investment in
Speaker 6: states swing states like Michigan, how much at the end
Speaker 6: of the day is this going to come to who
Speaker 6: has the most money in the bank.
Speaker 10: It's going to be a big factor, and I think
Speaker 10: there's no doubt the Democrats are going to be in
Speaker 10: a much more advantageous position when it comes to raising
Speaker 10: massive amounts of campaign funds. And the Trumpet campaign, let's
Speaker 10: face it, has a problem with legal fees and a
Speaker 10: lot of that the money that's being raised is going
Speaker 10: straight into his legal fees, which makes the case for
Speaker 10: Nicki Haley so much better. She doesn't have to worry
Speaker 10: about that she can spend money on Ashley trying to
Speaker 10: persuade voters. So that kind of gets you pretty quickly
Speaker 10: to who's going to win the free advertising battle? Who
Speaker 10: can go get free media? Former President Trump is, if
Speaker 10: indeed he's a nominee, has demonstrated he can do that
Speaker 10: pretty well, whether he's sitting in a courtroom or doing
Speaker 10: a press conference right outside the courtroom. And the President
Speaker 10: for some reason, is not taking advantage of free media opportunities.
Speaker 10: He skipped his opportunity to do an interview with the
Speaker 10: Super Bowl. He hasn't been out there very much, and
Speaker 10: when he does get out there, it doesn't go super
Speaker 10: well for him. So I think he needs to address
Speaker 10: that issue if he's going to be as competitive as
Speaker 10: he can be in the general election.
Speaker 6: All right, Lester Munson of BGR Group and Pat Dennis
Speaker 6: of American Bridge, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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