1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then Roudo with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 2: We're talking about all time highs after the earnings report 7 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 2: last evening, as the markets dive headfirst into artificial intelligence 8 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: with no looking back here. Apparently, the question is is 9 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 2: Washington already looking at this in the rearview mirror as 10 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 2: a missed opportunity. We've seen the administration take swings at AI. 11 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 2: We've seen attempts by the legislature to tackle AI. Remember 12 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 2: they had everybody come on in the big executives, from 13 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 2: Elon Musk to Mark Zuckerberg and so on. Yet there's 14 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: no path here in Congress that can't even figure out 15 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 2: a way to fund the government. But I'll add this 16 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 2: news this week, a new swing at the ball bipartisan 17 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 2: as Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries announced 18 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 2: together the creation of a twenty four member bi partisan panel. 19 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: This happened just two days ago, tasked with examining how 20 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 2: Congress should respond to the rise of AI and its 21 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 2: risks of misinformation, discrimination, copyright infringement, among other potential harms, 22 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 2: some of which are already creeping into the campaign cycle. 23 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: As we've talked about the deep fakes that could absolutely 24 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 2: impact the outcome of the election. And that's where we 25 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 2: start today with Greg Allen. He's the director of the 26 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: wad Wani Center for AI in Advanced Technologies at the 27 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,279 Speaker 2: Center for Strategic and International Studies, with a long career 28 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 2: in this going back to the Pentagon, and a unique 29 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 2: sense of how the government is using AI right now. 30 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 3: Greg. 31 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 2: It's good to see you, and I appreciate your being 32 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 2: with us. I'll get more specific with some questions about 33 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 2: attempts to regulate this, but I guess broadly the question 34 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 2: is has Washington already missed the opportunity. 35 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 4: No, I don't think that's the case. The United States 36 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:12,959 Speaker 4: government does not always jump quickly on every new topic, 37 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 4: including every new regulatory topic. Sure, but I think there's 38 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,519 Speaker 4: been some genuine speed in this area. And that's true 39 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 4: both on the congressional side and especially in the executive 40 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 4: branch side. You know, the White House under the Biden 41 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:30,399 Speaker 4: administration passed an executive order on AI technology, and we're now, 42 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 4: you know, past the ninety day mark, and every single 43 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 4: federal agency, you know, met their deadlines for that ninety 44 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 4: day period. And I think the House effort should be 45 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 4: interpreted as the counterpart to what's going on in the Senate. 46 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 4: And both of these are bip bipartisan initiatives, and both 47 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 4: of them are aiming at coming up with comprehensive legislation 48 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 4: sometime this year. 49 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: You sound optimistic, which is great to hear for such 50 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 2: a fast moving technology and such a slow moving apparatus 51 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 2: as Congress, as I mentioned, and we can't even figure 52 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 2: out a funding mechanism right now, never mind helping our 53 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 2: allies in Ukraine and Israel. What makes you think they 54 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 2: can get this done? 55 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 4: Well? Getting it done when, I think would be the 56 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 4: critical question. In that regard, something is almost certainly going 57 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 4: to pass, and when that occurs in under what time 58 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,119 Speaker 4: frame is a little bit unclear. It could happen this year, 59 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 4: although as we get closer to the election, passing big 60 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 4: pieces of law gets more difficult. It's also possible that 61 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,720 Speaker 4: it could pass during the lame duck period in between 62 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 4: the election and the inauguration of the next Congress and 63 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 4: the next president, some folks who will be retiring, you know, 64 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 4: might be a little bit more open to bipartisan legislation 65 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 4: and passing stuff that might otherwise be politically difficult. So 66 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 4: those are passages that could take place in the congressional action. 67 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 4: On the federal agency action, you're already seeing some movement 68 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 4: on these areas, you know, after a recent deep fake 69 00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 4: AI generated voice of President Biden that was falsely you know, 70 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 4: used during a robo call to discourage turnout in one 71 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 4: of the recent presidential primaries, the Federal Communications Commission has 72 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 4: already moved to ban the use of AI generated voices 73 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 4: in electoral robo calls. So some of this stuff can 74 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 4: move pretty quickly on a piecemeal basis, but on a 75 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 4: broad basis, you know, going after all foundation models or 76 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 4: the large sort of general purpose AI systems exemplified by 77 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 4: products such as chat GPT. You know, of course, developing 78 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 4: these regulations and developing them in the right way is 79 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 4: going to take some time. 80 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 2: To what extent the go to what extent are we 81 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: actually using it already as a government greg you were 82 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 2: at the Pentagon to see firsthand in the very early 83 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 2: stages of adopting AI, but I know it can go 84 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 2: way beyond that. Let's start there though with our Defense department. 85 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 4: Sure, well, the Department Department of Defenses flagship AI adoption 86 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 4: initiative originally was something called Project Maven, and that was 87 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 4: using AI for computer vision capabilities, essentially recognizing what's actually 88 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 4: taking place in what's present in images and video. Well, 89 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,479 Speaker 4: that got started all the way back in twenty seventeen 90 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 4: and actually has a great deal to show for its efforts. 91 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 4: So those types of things in recognizing tanks in satellite 92 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 4: images or recognizing you know, aircraft in drone images, that 93 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 4: type of technology is relatively mature at this point for 94 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 4: certain types of use cases. For the other types of 95 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 4: AI systems, you know it exemplified as I said by 96 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 4: chat GPT, the Department of Defense has a task force 97 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 4: underway called Task Force LIMA that is really studying sort 98 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 4: of what are the best use cases for this in 99 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 4: the near term and in the long term. 100 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: Task Force LIMA. We had a conversation with Congressman Seth 101 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 2: Moulton from his view on the Armed Services Committee. He 102 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 2: wrote a not ed that was chilling about the use 103 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 2: of AI in weaponry by the United States and other countries. 104 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 2: He was calling for an AI Geneva Convention, knowing that 105 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 2: players like Russia are going to seize on this as 106 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 2: soon as they can. Do you worry about this getting 107 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 2: out of control in terms of an AI arms race. 108 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 4: Well, I think the Geneva Convention is actually kind of 109 00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 4: illustrative as the nature of the problem. You know, the 110 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 4: Niva Convention defined the key principles underpinning international humanitarian law 111 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 4: and the law of war, stuff like proportionality in your 112 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 4: response in the use of military force and ensuring that 113 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 4: there is military necessity of attacking a target. Well, when 114 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 4: you've got the Russian military intentionally bombing hospitals in Ukraine, 115 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 4: intentionally bombing civilian infrastructure, they are a signatory to the 116 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 4: Geneva Convention and they're openly, willingly violating it in rather 117 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 4: cavalier terms. So I think the idea that some kind 118 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 4: of convention is going to stop their adoption of military 119 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 4: AI and also to stop their unethical use of military AI, 120 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 4: the prospects are pretty grim, to be frank that said, 121 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 4: I think there is opportunity among democratically aligned nations, those 122 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 4: that share the same values the United States government has 123 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 4: shepherd an initiative around the use of autonomy in weapons 124 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 4: systems and codifying sort of what is the code of 125 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 4: conduct for what constitutes responsible use. Of course, it's possible 126 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 4: to use military AI systems in a way that it 127 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 4: is unethical, but it's also possible to use your fists 128 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 4: in a way that is unethical. Fair enough, and I 129 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 4: think the question sort of then becomes, is there a 130 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 4: way to actually codify what would constitute ethical behavior? And 131 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 4: that's the type of work I was engaged in the 132 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 4: Department of Defense. And now there's more than four dozen 133 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 4: countries who are signing up to the US view on 134 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 4: this topic. 135 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 2: Well, that's fascinating to hear and encouraging, to be honest, 136 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 2: Greg Allen. The knock on this, by the way, is 137 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 2: that any attempt to regulate this technology could set back 138 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 2: the US as a leader in AI. And this is 139 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 2: what lawmakers frequently here when they bring tech executives to 140 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. And it makes you wonder if government is 141 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: going to do this or if it ends up being 142 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 2: a self policing high tech industry. 143 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 4: Well, I think the most advanced regulatory work in the 144 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 4: United States is, of course exemplified by the Biden Administration's 145 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 4: Executive Order. In the European Union, they just recently passed 146 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 4: the European Union's AI Act, which is actually a much 147 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 4: broader set of regulations that covers AI in a much 148 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 4: more horizontal, cross cutting fashion. So they still have to 149 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 4: pass that version of that bill in all of the 150 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 4: European Union's languages across all twenty seven countries, but that'll 151 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 4: probably take place in April, and then various parts of 152 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 4: this law will start entering into force over the next year, 153 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 4: two years, three years. 154 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 2: You know, we cover political campaigns here day in and 155 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 2: day out, Greg, and we're starting to see you mentioned 156 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 2: the Joe Biden and we're starting to see some of 157 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 2: the examsamples of AI creep into at least that part 158 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 2: of campaigning. Some are actually using AI as an organizing tool. 159 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 2: But when it comes to deep fakes and trying to 160 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 2: make a message out of things, I wonder if if 161 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 2: you see that becoming a greater problem between now and 162 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 2: the November. 163 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 4: Election, certainly, and in countries around the world that are 164 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 4: having their elections or have already had their elections, such 165 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 4: as for example, Bangladesh. Deep fakes have already played a 166 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 4: reasonably large role in the electoral politics. Of course, if 167 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 4: you can generate high quality false audio or false video 168 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 4: of the candidate in question doing something controversial or embarrassing 169 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:49,720 Speaker 4: or unethical, you can get that now through social media 170 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 4: or through other channels in front of a lot of 171 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 4: potential voters. And so I think what the US government 172 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 4: and what governments around the world are thinking through is 173 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 4: what is actually available in the legal and regulatory toolbox 174 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 4: to belase this type of activity. You know, some types 175 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 4: of speech you're obviously protected, other types are not in 176 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 4: an elections context, and so they're trying to figure out 177 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 4: what is the what's available in the regulatory toolbox, and 178 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 4: what's actually likely to be affected. 179 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 2: I'm really glad you could come spend some time with us. 180 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 2: Greg Allen a voice of experience on artificial intelligence and 181 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 2: a conversation I hope you'll think about when you hear 182 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 2: reports of Nvidia soaring to all time highs today. This 183 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 2: is the conversation that we're having about this in Washington. 184 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 2: He's the director of the Wadwani Center for AI and 185 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 2: Advanced Technologies, the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Greg, 186 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 2: thank you as we bring it to the campaign trail. 187 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: Now we're just a couple of days out from the 188 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 2: South Carolina primary. I wanted to talk to you, Laura Davison, 189 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 2: who is on the ground in South Carolina preparing for 190 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 2: what could be a very ugly experience for Nicki Haley 191 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 2: in her home state. Laura, it's great to see you. 192 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 2: All of the data, all the polling that we've seen 193 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 2: so far would suggest that Nicki Haley could lose by 194 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 2: anywhere from twenty to thirty points. What's it feel like 195 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 2: on the ground. 196 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:04,559 Speaker 5: You know that really is is the message and kind 197 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 5: of what you're feeling. Obviously, this is Haley's new state. 198 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 5: She's served as governor here for two terms, and she 199 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 5: is popular. She was very popular as governor and remains 200 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 5: to me. But people still want Trump and you see 201 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,439 Speaker 5: that reflected in the pooling. That's not that they dislike Haley, 202 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 5: but they just want Trump more. Haley is really fighting here. 203 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 5: She's on the airway, she's spending lots of money on advertising, 204 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 5: she is criss crossing the state having a bunch of events. 205 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 5: By contrast, you see Trump not even in the state today. 206 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 5: He has an event later in Tennessee which doesn't vote 207 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 5: until Super Tuesday, So that really tells you how both 208 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 5: candidates are feeling about their chances. Trump very confident, making 209 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 5: Haley fighting it out. 210 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 2: She's making news on in vitro fertilization following this ruling 211 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 2: from Alabama's Supreme Court. The headline on our story says, 212 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 2: at all embryos to me are babies, Laura, she's talking 213 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 2: about her own personal experience. Is this resonating locally? 214 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 5: Yeah? This is has been interesting. You know, she has 215 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 5: been very nuanced on abortion of you know, kind of 216 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 5: saying that she is a personally pro life but doesn't 217 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 5: want to judge others who are not, and also looking 218 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 5: at clear that you know, some of these bands in 219 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 5: the federal level just aren't likely you know here in 220 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 5: you know, saying that embryos or baby, she's taking a 221 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 5: little bit more of a conservative tax. But she also 222 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 5: was asked about that later last night and kind of 223 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 5: seemed to walk that back and said, you know, look, 224 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 5: you know that that that she wants parents to be 225 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 5: able to do what they can with you know, in 226 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 5: vitro fertilization and the embryos that they create, much like 227 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 5: she and her husband were able to do to conceive 228 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:31,199 Speaker 5: their children. 229 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:35,319 Speaker 2: You mentioned her husband, Donald Trump's been calling him out. 230 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 2: He's deployed in the military overseas, has been calling him 231 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 2: out for not being present in the campaign. That that 232 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 2: could cut both ways. With the number of active military 233 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 2: and veterans in South Carolina, Laura, are people talking about it. 234 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's something that's gotten a lot of coverage and 235 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 5: you've seen that can really really get you know, emotional 236 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 5: in the campaign trail and asked about that. You know, 237 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 5: this is a very heavily military area. Uh, you know, 238 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 5: there's a there's a lot of folks here. But also 239 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 5: you see time and time again, you know, no matter 240 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,480 Speaker 5: who Trump goes out where people don't dig him as 241 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:08,560 Speaker 5: part of his brand. You know, whether he's going after 242 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,719 Speaker 5: people with you know, mental disabilities or you know, gold 243 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,400 Speaker 5: Star families or you know, deployed in the active military members, 244 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 5: it doesn't really seem to to rub off on him. 245 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 2: That's something. When are we going to find out? This 246 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 2: is gonna, I guess be an early call if we're 247 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 2: talking about a twenty thirty point spread here, Laura. 248 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 5: Yes, we saw early calls both Iowa and New Hampshire. 249 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 5: You know, polls closed in South Carolina at seven pm 250 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 5: Eastern time on Saturday night, and I anticipate will be 251 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,079 Speaker 5: seeing results and perhaps a call very shortly after that, like. 252 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 2: As you say, eight oh one, maybe as we saw 253 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 2: to your point in the two early states, is turnout 254 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: going to be part of this story. 255 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 5: Turnout will be part of this story, but it's not 256 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 5: really the biggest part. You know, there's there will be 257 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 5: some potential, you know, for things like next week we'll 258 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 5: have Michigan where you have again one of those more 259 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 5: open primaries where you know Democrats or independence could vote 260 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,679 Speaker 5: South Carolina. It's really you know, the cake is baked here, 261 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 5: and you know that may be able to be able 262 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 5: to make some of the deficit by having more supporters 263 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 5: come out or have some Democrats who liked her as governor, 264 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 5: but it won't it won't change the game. 265 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: The cake is baked. When Laura Davison says that, you know, 266 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 2: it's real great to see you or appreciate your reporting 267 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 2: and joining us from South Carolina. We'll stay in touch 268 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 2: with Laura as we approach primary day on Saturday, and 269 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 2: we'll be able to distill the results for you. Of course, 270 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 2: on Monday, Laura makes a great point. As soon as 271 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 2: we get back to it. Next week, we're talking about 272 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: the Michigan primary that's on Tuesday, and it's Joe Biden 273 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 2: we're going to be watching this time. 274 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 275 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 276 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: and then royd Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You 277 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 278 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 279 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 2: Welcome to Bloomberg Radio and TV. Here on Balance of Power. 280 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: It is the Thursday edition. I'm Joe Matthew in New York. 281 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 2: Kayley lines with me in Washington, d C. Where Kaylee 282 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 2: Joe Biden has got to be feeling damned if he does, 283 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 2: damned if he doesn't. When it comes to the border, 284 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 2: we're talking about unilateral executive action, which is exactly what 285 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 2: Republicans were calling for following the meltdown of the border 286 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 2: deal on the Hill, and apparently the Speaker doesn't like it. 287 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 2: He's calling it a gimmick. 288 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 6: An election, youre gimmick, specifically considering that, yes, this is 289 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 6: a big problem for an incumbent president in an election year, 290 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 6: knowing he has to deal with the border issue if 291 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 6: he wants to potentially improve his approval on that front. 292 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 6: And what were we hearing from Congressional Republicans when they 293 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 6: were shooting down the deal that sent negotiators had struck 294 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 6: with the White House. It was the idea that the 295 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 6: president already had this authority. He had the authority to 296 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 6: make changes at the border. He just wasn't using it. 297 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 6: And I guess the question is is he going to 298 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 6: be using it now? To help us answer this, Bloomberg 299 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 6: Stordan Fabian is here with me in our Washington, d C. 300 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 5: Studios. 301 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 6: He of course covers the White House for us, So 302 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 6: Bloomberg is reporting, we're looking at the Section twelve, two 303 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 6: hundred and twelve f powers that were used by former 304 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:18,479 Speaker 6: President Trump and now maybe used by his Democratic successor. 305 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 6: What exactly are these things? What is the president looking 306 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 6: to do here? 307 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 7: The administration is looking at a few things, trying to 308 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 7: make it harder for migrants to claim asylum at the border, 309 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 7: and trying to sort of stop the flow if crossings 310 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 7: get to a certain level. 311 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 3: And as you mentioned, it. 312 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 7: Would be quite controversial because those are the same powers 313 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 7: the administration is looking at that Donald Trump used to 314 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 7: invoke the ban on travelers some mostly majority Muslim countries. 315 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 3: And it's a difficult balance for Biden. 316 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 7: On the one hand, he's certainly moved to the right 317 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 7: since twenty twenty one when he promised to take down 318 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 7: Donald Trump's immigration agenda because of the situation this year 319 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 7: and how politically toxic it is for him. At the 320 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 7: same time, he has a lot of voters in his base, 321 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 7: Latino voters, progressives who don't want to see him make 322 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 7: moves like this, So he has to balance those priorities 323 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 7: here going forward. I should mention that it's not a 324 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 7: certainty he does take this executive action right now. It's 325 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 7: something that's just being considered within the administration. 326 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: That's important to note because it's already getting reaction out 327 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:18,199 Speaker 2: of the Speaker of the House. And I wonder what 328 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 2: you make of the pushback here, Jordan. Conservatives have been 329 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: asking Joe Biden to use executive action to deal with 330 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:30,199 Speaker 2: the border. Here the Speaker's calling it an election your gimmick, 331 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 2: as we just said, Is there something further is that 332 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: they want Title forty two back in place. What would 333 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 2: make Capitol Hill. Republicans happy here. 334 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 7: It's an impossible question to answer, Joe. I mean, their 335 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 7: stance on this has been totally bizarre. The goalposts keep 336 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:50,800 Speaker 7: moving up and down the field. To summarize Speaker Johnson's position, 337 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 7: you can't have legislation because the president can do executive action. 338 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 7: And you also can't have executive action because that's an 339 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,880 Speaker 7: election you're gimmick, which, by the way, proves that Joe 340 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 7: Biden can't be trusted to negotiate legislation. I mean, it's 341 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 7: like talking in circles here. So you can see why 342 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 7: the White House is so frustrated with him because their 343 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 7: position is constantly changing. And you know, to your question 344 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 7: of what they want, I don't think they know what 345 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 7: they want either. They might not want anything. They might 346 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 7: want the current situation to remain status quo and use 347 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,760 Speaker 7: the chast of the border as a political weapon against 348 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 7: Joe Biden and Democrats. 349 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 6: Well, but to your point about the messaging we've gotten 350 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 6: from Republicans in the House, to go back to this 351 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 6: idea that they have maintained that the president has this 352 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 6: authority and he wasn't using it. If Biden then decides 353 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 6: to exercise that authority. Isn't he proving their point and 354 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 6: could face blowback for just doing so too late? 355 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 3: He certainly could. I mean you can look at it 356 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 3: that way. 357 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:46,360 Speaker 7: I think you can look at it the other way, 358 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 7: which is that he's exhausted all the options and this 359 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 7: is what he has to do. And look, I mean 360 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 7: both sides I think have changed their position on this 361 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 7: should be mentioned. The House Republicans one of the first 362 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 7: thing they did was past HR two, which was this 363 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:04,159 Speaker 7: extremely hardline border bill, and so that would suggested they 364 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:08,160 Speaker 7: also believe that legislation was necessary to fix the problem. 365 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 3: At the border. 366 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 7: And look, I've covered immigration for a long time. A 367 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,280 Speaker 7: lot of presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump have taken executive action. 368 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 7: What's been proven is always on stronger legal ground to 369 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 7: do legislation because these executive actions get tied up in 370 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 7: lawsuits and a lot of them get struck down. So 371 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 7: that's I think of the point that the President was 372 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 7: trying to make that he needs Congress's authority to make 373 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,400 Speaker 7: these changes permanent and make them real. 374 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 2: There we have it from Jordan Fabian. Good to see 375 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: reporting from the White House for Bloomberg every day in 376 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 2: Washington I'm Joe Matthew and New York Kiley's of course 377 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 2: in Washington with Jordan and Mohammed Yunis. I'm looking forward 378 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 2: to this conversation. Always, we learned something from Mohammad, the 379 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 2: editor in chief at Gallup Kayley, because we're talking about 380 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 2: a number of different angles on Joe Biden right now. 381 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 2: It's not just the border, it's also Israel as he 382 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 2: heads for the primary in Michigan next week. Add the economy, 383 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 2: and we're still looking at underwater approval ratings as actual 384 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 2: voters hit the polls. 385 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's absolutely right. There is a number of issues, 386 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 6: arguably that are working against the incumbent president, not even 387 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 6: to speak of his age, which is something Joe that frankly, 388 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 6: he cannot change. He is an octagenarian and that is 389 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 6: just fact, and the vast majority of voters and consistent 390 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 6: polling we are seeing think he is too old to 391 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 6: serve another term as president. Granted, there are a number 392 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 6: of individuals who also think that former President Trump, the 393 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 6: likely Republican nominee, is too old, but that's not something 394 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 6: you can fix with policy. 395 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 2: It is what it is that's right. As opposed to 396 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 2: the economy, where you can have a policy, and this 397 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,919 Speaker 2: president likes to call it Bidenomics, as he's adopted that 398 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 2: moniker put forth by the Wall Street Journal, and some 399 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 2: folks don't think that's a good thing, Kayley. The consistent 400 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 2: disconnect between the economy and approval ratings and what people 401 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 2: think of Joe Biden's handling of the econom of me 402 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 2: has just been an unavoidable story for a Securit Bloomberg 403 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 2: and it's likely to carry through the campaign. 404 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 6: Absolutely, And so let's carry on the conversation now. Joining 405 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 6: me in studio here in Washington is Mohammad Unis, who 406 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 6: is the editor in chief of gallupt. Mohammed, great to 407 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 6: see you. As always, Joe and I were both really 408 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 6: taken aback to some extent in both Iowa and New 409 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 6: Hampshire these early Republican primary contests where we were on 410 00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 6: the ground finding out that maybe it wasn't the economy 411 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 6: stupid as much as it was immigration as voters were 412 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 6: going to make their selection in the polls. Have we 413 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 6: seen the economy now actually trumped in terms of an issue? 414 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 6: What does Gallup's polling suggest. 415 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:43,040 Speaker 8: Well, historically, and we've had this conversation before the economy 416 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 8: has been kind of the most potent topic. But it's 417 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,400 Speaker 8: interesting that you mentioned immigration because in the next coming days, 418 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 8: what we're going to be doing is releasing our most 419 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 8: important problem question that we ask every month, and right now, 420 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 8: immigration is the open ended answer of the most important 421 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 8: album facing America by twenty eight percent of Americans, and 422 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 8: that is a very significant increase just coming up in 423 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 8: the last several months. So as the situation at the 424 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 8: border gets more critical, I think this topic is going 425 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 8: to absolutely be coming up time and again. The other 426 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,560 Speaker 8: point on immigration that's interesting is when we ask people 427 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 8: why do you disapprove of President Biden, one of the 428 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 8: most important and frequently mentioned subjects is in fact immigration, 429 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 8: second to which only is how he's managing the economy. 430 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 8: So both the economy and immigration I think are going 431 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 8: to be really critical for Americans. They have been in 432 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 8: the past less immigration, but I think what's happening right 433 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 8: now is pretty consistent. And also other data points show 434 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:47,159 Speaker 8: that more Americans, beyond just folks who are traditionally concerned 435 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 8: about immigration, are growing more concerned. 436 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 3: About the situation right now. 437 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 8: Another data point we'll be releasing soon is that right now, 438 00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 8: a majority of Americans I believe it's fifty five percent 439 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 8: of those that are dissatisfied with the state of immigration 440 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 8: in the country want to see less people coming into 441 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 8: the country. And that's also a relative high when you 442 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 8: look at the past several years to a decade. So 443 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 8: immigration is absolutely perking up as a more potent subject 444 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 8: for people as they think about this election. 445 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 2: Well, for voters who are going to be making their 446 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 2: decisions based on the economy, Muhammad, it's not looking good 447 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 2: for Joe Biden. As you wrote recently, political economic indicators 448 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: not promising for the president. Sub fifty percent presidential job 449 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 2: ratings have usually resulted in electoral defeat. So what are 450 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 2: we talking about here. 451 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 3: President Biden? 452 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:43,320 Speaker 8: Right now, looking at historical metrics, and my colleague JFF 453 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 8: Jones did a great run up of all of the 454 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 8: really important five to six metrics that we've looked at 455 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,120 Speaker 8: with previous presidents at similar moments in their presidency seeking reelection, 456 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 8: He's behind almost every single one of them on every 457 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 8: single metric, with the exception of President Carter. 458 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 3: On some of them, he definitely is behind. 459 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 8: And I think that's a really important thing to realize 460 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,959 Speaker 8: and keep in the forefront of our minds as we 461 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 8: look to November. However, we're also seeing now the third 462 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:17,679 Speaker 8: month of continued improvement in American's economic confidence in the 463 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,360 Speaker 8: situation with the economy here at home, So our economic 464 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 8: confidence index as Americans to think about the economy right 465 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 8: now and where do they think it's going, essentially, and 466 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 8: this will be the third month where we've seen an improvement. 467 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,560 Speaker 8: So that's moving in the right direction, But a lot 468 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 8: of these other traditional historic metrics are not promising for 469 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 8: President Biden. His three year average at thirty nine point 470 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 8: eight percent has him behind everybody but Carter at this 471 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 8: point in their presidency. And that number, now we're going 472 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 8: to release later this afternoon, will be thirty eight, which 473 00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 8: is our new number that actually isn't published yet, but 474 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 8: when we come out with that, that means that he's 475 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 8: now almost two points below his own three year average 476 00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 8: at this point in the campaign. 477 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,199 Speaker 6: Raises the question of what he is going to be 478 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 6: able to campaign on or to try to do to 479 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 6: improve his image, What issues can work in his favor. 480 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 6: And I want to ask you about abortion specifically, because 481 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 6: we know that has resulted in very high voter turnout 482 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,160 Speaker 6: in Democratic victories in the midterms and then some other 483 00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 6: special elections across a number of states. And of course 484 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 6: we've seen just within the last week in Alabama the 485 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,880 Speaker 6: Supreme Court there ruling that an embryo is a child, 486 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 6: a life that must be protective protected, calling into question 487 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,200 Speaker 6: IVF treatments, fertility treatments that even conservatives have been very 488 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 6: public about supporting broadly this kind of fertility treatment is supportive. 489 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 6: How do you think that may serve as a catalyst 490 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 6: come this November, when we're even further out from the 491 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 6: overturning of Roe versus Weight, and yet you're still feeling 492 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 6: the effects with new developments like this one. 493 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,200 Speaker 8: It's interesting that this is a topic now that will 494 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 8: be implicated into the public conscience really through local decision making, right, 495 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 8: because that's where a lot of these things happened as 496 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,199 Speaker 8: a situation you just mentioned. Overall, what we found in 497 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 8: our decades old trends. After the Dobbs decision, America has 498 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 8: increasingly become slightly, not dramatically, but more identifying more as 499 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 8: pro choice, and those who are experiencing dissatisfaction with the 500 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 8: state of abortion laws want to see less, not more 501 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 8: restrictive laws in the country. 502 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 3: You know, Roe v. 503 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,560 Speaker 8: Wade was an interesting case in that over six and 504 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 8: ten Americans didn't want it to didn't want to see 505 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:34,560 Speaker 8: it overturned, so it was by nature a uniquely unpopular decision. 506 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 8: What's interesting is that since then, what we've seen is 507 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,520 Speaker 8: a slight cooling of those temperaments. So, for example, people 508 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,240 Speaker 8: identified as pro choice, it was fifty five percent last year, 509 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 8: it's down to fifty two percent this year. So it's 510 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 8: that cooling you see consistently across those metrics. The other 511 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 8: thing that's important to keep in mind is that people 512 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 8: who identify as pro life are also on the uptick now, 513 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 8: So we're kind of a recalibration moment in terms of 514 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 8: public opinion reacting to the Roe v. 515 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 3: Wade overthrow. 516 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 8: But again, the more that these state decisions bring this 517 00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 8: topic back into focus, the more the significant. Now twenty 518 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 8: eight percent of Americans that say that the candidate they 519 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 8: vote were has to share their views, and that's increased 520 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 8: dramatic notably since Roe v. 521 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 3: Wade. Those voters are going to be. 522 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,880 Speaker 8: Mobilized by that national focus and it's going to show 523 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 8: in their vote. 524 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 2: Pretty incredible to think about it, But the State of 525 00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 2: the Union address is two weeks from tonight, Mohammed. In 526 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 2: our remaining moment here, based on your metrics, when the 527 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,400 Speaker 2: President says the state of the Union is strong, while 528 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,680 Speaker 2: the majority of Americans not believe. 529 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 8: Him, well, most Americans have been dissatisfied with the state 530 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 8: of affairs in the United States now for a quite 531 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 8: a long time, for years, and that predates President Biden. 532 00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,240 Speaker 8: So I think that's going to be a hard sell 533 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 8: just for the average public. What's really going to be 534 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,719 Speaker 8: interesting politically is how many of the folks that consider 535 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 8: themselves to be independents will be drawn by his argument 536 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 8: and to what degree outcome or really turnout is going 537 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 8: to determine how this election ultimately goes. 538 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 3: As with all elections, but. 539 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 8: Most Americans are pretty negative on the state of national 540 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 8: politics and national policy on many fronts immigration, abortion. I mean, 541 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,879 Speaker 8: it breaks on each side, but I don't think just 542 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,480 Speaker 8: one speech is going to get that done. 543 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 2: We're always smarter for some time with Mohammad. Units great 544 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,920 Speaker 2: to see you, Mohammad. Thanks for coming by our Washington bureau. 545 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 2: As always, the editor in chief at Gallup, I'm Joe 546 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,760 Speaker 2: Matthew in New York, Kayley Lines in DC. We assemble 547 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 2: our panel next for their take on what we're talking 548 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 2: about here. Lester Munson and Pat Dennis are on the way. 549 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 2: In This is Bloomberg. 550 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 551 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on epocar Play and 552 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: then Prounoro with the Bloomberg Business app demand wherever you 553 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 554 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 6: Welcome back to Balance of Power on both Bloomberg Television 555 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 6: and radio, where we always have our eyes on the 556 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 6: polls on this program as we get closer and closer 557 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 6: to not just the upcoming primary contest in South Carolina, 558 00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 6: but ultimately what's looking likely to be a general election 559 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 6: matchup between Trump and Biden come November. And yet, Joe, 560 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 6: we also have to consider who else might be on 561 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,160 Speaker 6: the ballot come November, because a new Quinnipiac poll that 562 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 6: came out yesterday showed if it's Biden Trump, Biden wins 563 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 6: forty nine to forty five. When you add third parties 564 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 6: into the mix. Guess who gets fifteen percent? 565 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:40,360 Speaker 3: Huh. 566 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 2: This is fascinating to me, our FK Junior, Kaylee. We've 567 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 2: been hearing Democrats and many of them on this program, 568 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 2: Nash teeth ring hands over the idea of a no 569 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:56,480 Speaker 2: labels candidate, and we could still get one, presumably after 570 00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 2: Super Tuesday, but much less chatter about this man fifteen percent. 571 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 2: I don't know if you're reading into these polls to 572 00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 2: the extent that we should be here on a national 573 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 2: poll this early on, but that's a real number, Kley, 574 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 2: and it would put him on stage, I believe, in 575 00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 2: a general election debate, which is something to consider at 576 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 2: this point. That's where we want to start with our panel. 577 00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 2: Lester Munson is with US Republican Strategist b g R Group, 578 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 2: alongside Pat Dennis, Democratic strategist. He's the president of American Bridge. Pat, 579 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 2: of all the things that keep you up at night, 580 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 2: is it No Labels or our RFK junior that could 581 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 2: provide the real nightmare? 582 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 9: It's absolutely both of them, to be clear. Lots of 583 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,520 Speaker 9: things keep me up at night, but they both come 584 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 9: back down to this fundamental Trump math problem, which is 585 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 9: he can't win unless he's able to divide the anti 586 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 9: Trump coalition. And you know, at American Bridge, we've been 587 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:56,320 Speaker 9: digging through rfk's financial filings and it's no surprise that 588 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 9: one of the biggest owners that Donald Trump is also 589 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 9: the biggest owner at RFK Superman, So it is a 590 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,680 Speaker 9: real worry for us. It's something we're taking extremely seriously. 591 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 9: But sort of the nice thing about RFK is voters 592 00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 9: who don't know anything about him tend to be the 593 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 9: ones who have who support him. The second they learn 594 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 9: anything about his positions, his personality, the things he's done, 595 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 9: they flee the RFK train pretty quickly. So that's really 596 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 9: what we're focused on, is being sure people are aware 597 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 9: of his extreme positions. 598 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 6: Well, Lester, it raises the question of people are just 599 00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,080 Speaker 6: pulling and saying, Okay, yeah, I vote for that guy 600 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 6: because he's just the alternative that's there on the piece 601 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 6: of paper, on the list of options that isn't Trump 602 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 6: or Biden. 603 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 10: Yeah. I have to say I find mister Kennedy to 604 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 10: be a little strange and some of his positions to 605 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 10: be a little bit out there, And I think his 606 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 10: success is largely due to the fact that the incumbent 607 00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:59,800 Speaker 10: is so weak and people are looking for alternatives. Mister Kennedy, 608 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 10: I think what is it age seventy two seems to 609 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,440 Speaker 10: have some youthful vigor compared to the other candidates. Maybe 610 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:06,480 Speaker 10: that's a big factor here. 611 00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 2: Well, he's out there doing pushups in the street for 612 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 2: you know, social media videos. Pat, is that what's in 613 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 2: store for Joe Biden? Here more more topless days on 614 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 2: the beach? How does he deal with the age issue? 615 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 9: I mean, the real contrast to make here is whether 616 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,719 Speaker 9: or not you're a serious politician or not. And with RFK, 617 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 9: like we've seen his absolutely disgusting positions on vaccines, really 618 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 9: spreading dangerous misinformation that the vast majority of the country 619 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,080 Speaker 9: absolutely rejects. And then you know, it's just a grab 620 00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,840 Speaker 9: bag of positions across the board that people sort of loath. 621 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 9: So yeah, he wants this to be a campaign about 622 00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,719 Speaker 9: you know, Instagram posts or whatever. But ultimately he has 623 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 9: to run against the natural president who's solving problems for people. 624 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 6: Well, let's talk about the actual president, because we were 625 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 6: just having a conversation in our prior segment about what 626 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 6: he could do when it comes to the border. Pat, 627 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 6: he's talking about or at least the administration is considering 628 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 6: executive action that would bring about similar policies, if not 629 00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 6: the same as what we saw in the Trump administration. 630 00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,800 Speaker 6: And this is a democratic president who came into office 631 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 6: singing a very different tune on immigration in the border 632 00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,720 Speaker 6: issue than he's singing now. Is this just political reality 633 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 6: for him and how's it going to go down with 634 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:27,080 Speaker 6: his party? 635 00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 9: Well, I think the important thing to know here is 636 00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,840 Speaker 9: that the problem with the Muslim band wasn't which section 637 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 9: of law he used. The problem was it was a 638 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:42,760 Speaker 9: non constitutional, racist, xenophobic policy that was completely illegal and 639 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 9: disgusting and a moral Now actually using the laws of 640 00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 9: the United States, as he's been forced to do by 641 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:52,560 Speaker 9: having an intrangent Republican party who refuses to sign legislation. 642 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 9: The American people support using the laws that are on 643 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 9: the books in a way that is ethical and responsible 644 00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 9: and all the things you know, bipartisan that Joe Biden 645 00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 9: has shown you so good at over years. 646 00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,120 Speaker 2: I want to ask you both about what's going on 647 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 2: in Michigan. This is going to be interesting as we 648 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 2: all obsess over South Carolina and it appears to be 649 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,839 Speaker 2: a predetermined outcome here in favor of Donald Trump. Joe 650 00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 2: Biden's kind of worried about what goes on in Michigan. 651 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 2: He's dispatched high level officials from the administration to go 652 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:24,840 Speaker 2: to that state to talk to Arab leaders Arab American 653 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 2: voters who helped to deliver a win in Michigan for 654 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,800 Speaker 2: Joe Biden in twenty twenty. Rashida Talib is now behind 655 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 2: this uncommitted vote next week, encouraging Democrats to not vote 656 00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,440 Speaker 2: for the incumbent. Here, Pat, how much of a problem 657 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,399 Speaker 2: does he have in Michigan? What's this going to look 658 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 2: like on Tuesday? 659 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,200 Speaker 9: Well, you know, the Democratic Party, we're a big, happy family. 660 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 9: And if that's anything like my family, sometimes you throw 661 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,440 Speaker 9: a plate of food across the table at Thanksgiving, but 662 00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 9: you know, everybody comes back to play poker afterwards. At 663 00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,719 Speaker 9: least if you're in my family. Sounds like a fun 664 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 9: Finerald Trump is just oh yeah, Donald Trump is just 665 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,279 Speaker 9: too dangerous. We will come together in November to defeat him. 666 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,839 Speaker 9: And look, Joe Biden's doing the right thing. You need 667 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 9: to take states like Michigan seriously. You know, at American Bridge, 668 00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 9: this sort of the core of our program is focused 669 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,919 Speaker 9: on states like Michigan, also Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because they're 670 00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 9: really gonna decide the election. 671 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,799 Speaker 6: Well, it makes me wonder Lester. Also, as we talk 672 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 6: about voters who may be more reluctant to vote for Biden. 673 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 6: Does that make them more likely to vote for Trump? 674 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 6: Is that really the point to point thing we should 675 00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:37,239 Speaker 6: be drawing, or is it just that this is going 676 00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 6: to be a turnout problem at the end of the day. 677 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,560 Speaker 10: You know, so far it looks a lot like a 678 00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,280 Speaker 10: turnout election. We're only in February, though, and no one's 679 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 10: voting in the general election in February. There's primaries going on. 680 00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 10: As much as the Democrats tried to avoid having one 681 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,439 Speaker 10: at all, they're having to go through that process. Also, once, 682 00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,719 Speaker 10: I presume, at some point here in the summer, once 683 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:03,240 Speaker 10: we're pivot to the conventions and the actual general election, 684 00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 10: that these candidates, mister Biden and presumably mister trumpel though 685 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 10: maybe Ambassador Haley will make a case to those independent 686 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:15,239 Speaker 10: swing voters. I sure would like to see that. The 687 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 10: conundrum for the President in Michigan is very telling. His 688 00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 10: foreign policy is not what he's talking about to a 689 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 10: lot of audiences in the United States. He is basically 690 00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 10: supporting the Israeli government in their actions in Gaza, which 691 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,399 Speaker 10: by the way, I think is the right thing to do. 692 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,439 Speaker 10: That's not what he's saying back home. He's trying to 693 00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 10: kind of have his cake and eat it too here. 694 00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:40,320 Speaker 10: I think people are seeing through that and they're a 695 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:41,920 Speaker 10: little skeptical about what they're hearing. 696 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,920 Speaker 2: Pat, I'm curious what you think about the primary itself. 697 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:48,480 Speaker 2: I know you see Democrats winning Michigan, although it was 698 00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 2: only by one hundred and fifty one hundred and fifty 699 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:54,360 Speaker 2: five thousand votes in twenty twenty, with the vast majority 700 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 2: of the state's two hundred thousand Muslim voters going for Biden. 701 00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,520 Speaker 2: But is there a markin he needs to worry about 702 00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,600 Speaker 2: if that uncommitted vote reaches a certain level, does that 703 00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 2: send a message that makes his life more difficult next week? 704 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,799 Speaker 9: Well, at American Bridge, we think about Michigan pretty much 705 00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:19,920 Speaker 9: every day. Primaries are primaries. It's extremely it's extremely important 706 00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,439 Speaker 9: that we win this in November. And the what Joe 707 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,320 Speaker 9: Biden is doing, you know, sending people focusing on the state, 708 00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 9: focusing on jobs in the audio industry, focusing on infrastructure, 709 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 9: this is all the stuff that's going to win it 710 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,959 Speaker 9: for him. Now, you know, this is a primary. We're 711 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 9: in February. I keep reminding people we're very early in 712 00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:44,040 Speaker 9: the campaign, but ultimately, you know, you need to run 713 00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:46,920 Speaker 9: the campaign, and you need to need to come in strong. 714 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 6: Well, it's early, and at this early stage we do 715 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,600 Speaker 6: see that the president has a very large war chest. 716 00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:57,080 Speaker 6: Once the January figures came in Lester we learned he 717 00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,919 Speaker 6: had raised forty two million dollars, he was now sitting 718 00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,800 Speaker 6: on a pile of about one hundred and thirty million dollars. 719 00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:06,640 Speaker 6: Whereas for the Trump campaign, they spent more than they 720 00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 6: raised and we saw millions of dollars going out the 721 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,480 Speaker 6: door once again to pay for legal fees. As we 722 00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,360 Speaker 6: talk about how it's going to require real investment in 723 00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:17,400 Speaker 6: states swing states like Michigan, how much at the end 724 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,359 Speaker 6: of the day is this going to come to who 725 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:20,840 Speaker 6: has the most money in the bank. 726 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:23,879 Speaker 10: It's going to be a big factor, and I think 727 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,880 Speaker 10: there's no doubt the Democrats are going to be in 728 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,600 Speaker 10: a much more advantageous position when it comes to raising 729 00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,719 Speaker 10: massive amounts of campaign funds. And the Trumpet campaign, let's 730 00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,840 Speaker 10: face it, has a problem with legal fees and a 731 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,480 Speaker 10: lot of that the money that's being raised is going 732 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,239 Speaker 10: straight into his legal fees, which makes the case for 733 00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,200 Speaker 10: Nicki Haley so much better. She doesn't have to worry 734 00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,279 Speaker 10: about that she can spend money on Ashley trying to 735 00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 10: persuade voters. So that kind of gets you pretty quickly 736 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,399 Speaker 10: to who's going to win the free advertising battle? Who 737 00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 10: can go get free media? Former President Trump is, if 738 00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 10: indeed he's a nominee, has demonstrated he can do that 739 00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,719 Speaker 10: pretty well, whether he's sitting in a courtroom or doing 740 00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:03,680 Speaker 10: a press conference right outside the courtroom. And the President 741 00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:07,200 Speaker 10: for some reason, is not taking advantage of free media opportunities. 742 00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,320 Speaker 10: He skipped his opportunity to do an interview with the 743 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,719 Speaker 10: Super Bowl. He hasn't been out there very much, and 744 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 10: when he does get out there, it doesn't go super 745 00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:15,800 Speaker 10: well for him. So I think he needs to address 746 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,080 Speaker 10: that issue if he's going to be as competitive as 747 00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:20,760 Speaker 10: he can be in the general election. 748 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,360 Speaker 6: All right, Lester Munson of BGR Group and Pat Dennis 749 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 6: of American Bridge, thank you so much. 750 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 751 00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,600 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 752 00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,279 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 753 00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:41,560 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 754 00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:43,280 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.