1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast name m Keene, jay Leie. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Place 5 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: to say, We're in Newport Beach, California, at Pimcoe's global 6 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: headquarters alongside me as the CEO Money Roman and the 7 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: c i O Dan Iverson. Guys Greater to catch up 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: with you both. What a day to be speaking about 9 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 1: the global bond market. I actually want to begin though 10 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 1: in Q four the equity markets crater in the credit 11 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: market arguably is seizing GARB, and pretty much every single 12 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: one of the major funds here at Pimco delivers positive returns. 13 00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: How do we arrive at that moment? Monny Well, I 14 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: would say that's the occasion to show we get tested, 15 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,600 Speaker 1: and we get tested in difficult markets, and we had 16 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 1: a view thanks too down on value and what the 17 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: right position was to have before QUE four. I wouldn't 18 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: say we saw that coming, but proper risk management and 19 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: proper liquidity medic avoid the problem and we're quite pleased 20 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: about the result in QUE four defensive arguably twelve months 21 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: ago down going into the key final quarter, coming out 22 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: of it and deciding to re risk is a different proposition. 23 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: De risking is one thing than having the I guess, 24 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: enthusiasm confidence to say now is the time to re risk, 25 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: that's a different question. You approached that by saying now 26 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 1: is the time to re risk, slightly buy some of 27 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 1: the weakness what we three, what you actually did coming 28 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: into the new year. I think that's right. That you know, 29 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: in response to an environment in the fourth quarter where 30 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: we did sense that markets were overshooting fundamentals, we decided 31 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: as a firm in across these strategies to add risk 32 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: in liquid more liquid areas of the market, as more 33 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 1: of a tactical view, uh, not trying to be too 34 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,919 Speaker 1: overconfident and looking at time bottoms and markets, but usually 35 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: the opportunity where others needed liquidity at that point in 36 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: time to add risk on the margin and look to 37 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: generate a bit more total return, at least during the 38 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 1: first half of the year. So many people talk about 39 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,399 Speaker 1: the process and how the process is different. It doesn't 40 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: matter what asset manager I speak to, they say, our 41 00:02:25,120 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 1: process is different. That gives us our ridge. What is 42 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: so special about the process here down We have a 43 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: large team, we have a global footprint. I think that 44 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: it starts there um, so we have access to different 45 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: areas of the markets that certain firms do not. And 46 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: then I think the other key theme, and one of 47 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: the reasons we're here discussing the secular outlook today is 48 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: that we take a long term orientation. We don't try 49 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: to time markets over different quarters, you know, even over 50 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 1: the course of you know, a one year period. With 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: that longer term orientation, you know, we try to protect 52 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: our clients from areas of the market where from the 53 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 1: ellups and where the ingredients are there for work extreme underperform. 54 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: What do you think that froth is right now, there's 55 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: froth you know, across different areas of the market, But 56 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: by far the area of most concerned for us here 57 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 1: at PIMCO is in the credit markets and specifically relating 58 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: to corporate credit risk. That's an area where you know, 59 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 1: we've had about a decade now, are very low yields 60 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 1: in an area where we're getting you know, a lot 61 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: more concerned about fundamentals. And it's course spader spading, and 62 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: it's been a great time for week issuers to issue 63 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: paper in Europe and in the US who was very 64 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: weak covenant, and it's been good for them. And I 65 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: think we've shy away from morning disposition. And when things 66 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: get worse, do you think we'd have many opportunity to 67 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: buy them cheap? You think things aren't gonna get worse 68 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: for sure? On the on the week on the weak 69 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 1: high credit was weak covenant in business which are cyclical. 70 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 1: Of course, what was interesting about spending the day with 71 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: you guys is actually how bearish you sound around corporate credit. 72 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: But we bond managers were always barish, right well, typically 73 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: that's the store, sorry, but but much more so relative 74 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: to your competition. I speak to bond investors on a 75 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: daily basis. I have to say I've been struck by 76 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: just how bearished down the firm seems to be on 77 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: corporate credit right now. It's a it's a subtle point. 78 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 1: I think when we look at the world today, we 79 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: see some near tournament certainty that could be resolved, at 80 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: least to some degree, tremendous mental liquidity combinative central banks, 81 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 1: so within the credit sector, spreads can certainly go tighter 82 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 1: over the short term but this is the signal area 83 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: of the financial markets that are prone to overshooting to 84 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: the downside when people's views towards economic growth change, and 85 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: as many said, as primarily fixed income managers, the most 86 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: important task that we need to focus on is avoiding 87 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: permanent capital impairment or the type of downside volatility that's 88 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,559 Speaker 1: likely to take place when people begin to fear credit 89 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: risk once again money. You mentioned some of the excesses 90 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: that we've experienced over the last couple of years. It's 91 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: being with some members of the team. They think maybe 92 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: things could get a whole lot more excessive in the 93 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: coming years. There was a comparison used earlier on It's 94 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 1: way now in the period approaching the mid two thousand's. 95 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: Is that historical parallel that you're thinking about increasingly in 96 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 1: the coming years. I think we do. I think I 97 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,720 Speaker 1: think we will both say it's very hard to call 98 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: the turn of the market. But what you want to 99 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: have is a framework where you think of value and 100 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: you say, given us enario, what are you going to do? 101 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: What are the things you want to buy? And make 102 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: sure that we do what we say we're going to do. 103 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 1: So you know, why do we take pride in what 104 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 1: of funds offered because in times of turbanent market, when 105 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: equity go down, we need to perform. We are the 106 00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: building block in people's portfolio where they want to count 107 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 1: on us to perform in difficult markets, and the last 108 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: thing they need is us to be overweight in lazy 109 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: credit where the credit drops fifteen points and we haven't 110 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: done property or work. Within the secular outlook, number five 111 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: is the one that really stuck out. So make financial 112 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: or market vulnerabilities the idea that the market no longer 113 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: absorbs the news, it makes the news. Dan, talk to 114 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: me a little bit more about that. How concerned are 115 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: you about this financial market vulnerability that you've highlighted in 116 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: the report. We're quite concerned. Now again, you know this dynamic. Uh. 117 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 1: It may take some time for this dynamic to rear 118 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: it's ugly head, but we're concerned about the markets being 119 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: able to facilitate risk transfer when investor mindsets change. Uh. 120 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: We saw a preview of that in the fourth quarter. 121 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 1: So as an active manager, you need to be prepared 122 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: for market overshooting and ideally, if you're prepared, you could 123 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: profit from that. The keyword there many active UM. I 124 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: imagine the argument for active is a whole lot stronger 125 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: over the last twelve months that it once was were 126 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: active for fixed income. So I think I think we 127 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: have a very different view than most waiving active fixed 128 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: income management, that it is the good and it's as 129 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: simple as this, and there are reason why this is 130 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: the case. They are structural reason in terms of how 131 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: the indices are computed. There are behavior reasons why some 132 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: agents in the market have none company non economic reason 133 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,760 Speaker 1: to buy papers. Think of the Central Bank. I think 134 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: sometimes of insurance company who have servency issues. And so 135 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: we think we can deliver constituentally axcess return of a 136 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: benchmark in a much easier way than equity managers can. 137 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: And so when I hear about active versis passive, I said, 138 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: don't talk to us. We've delivered a good on a one, 139 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: three or five, an ten year basis. But there are reasons, 140 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: and our job is somehow easier than equity managers, and 141 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 1: I think we we acknowledge this. But it's a lot 142 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: of tools we can do. Imagine a company. A company 143 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: always has two hundred bonds outstanding, some trading dollars, some 144 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: trading years. You can serve them back there's so many 145 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: things we can do. We can use derivative, there's so 146 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: many things we can do to enhance value and deliver better. 147 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 1: It sounds to me like, do you think you can 148 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: avoid the right of department phase? You won't be part 149 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 1: of that. We won't be part of this. You need 150 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: to stigment your offering. You need to say this is 151 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: a value proposition. We're never going to be the cheapest. 152 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: We're trying to add value day after day. We want 153 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: to be there when things are difficult, and we want 154 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: to be too, you know, we need to invest into 155 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: our business and have other things to offer which go 156 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: beyond simple performance. Well, do do you think that's unique 157 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:30,239 Speaker 1: to PIMCO or just unique to fixed income bond investors? 158 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: To to manage point quite clear that there's a big 159 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 1: difference between the equity investor and the fixed income investors 160 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: as specific to PIMP or specific to fixed income investing. 161 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: But I think the advantages that we have relate to 162 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: the fact that we're operating in the fixed in camacy 163 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:48,719 Speaker 1: class where you have noneconomic players that work, you know, 164 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: literally every day that trading markets are open. I would 165 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: uh and do believe that PIMCO has some advantages at 166 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: this stage of the cycle. We've had about a decade 167 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: of convergence in terms of beta compensation. Going forward, we 168 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be much more challenging environment and environment 169 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 1: with lower base case returns but much higher volatility. And 170 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 1: in that type of environment, Pimpco should excel given the 171 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 1: depth and breadth of our resources across markets and size matters. 172 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 1: I mean, the reality is we have a lot of 173 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 1: people who helped them delivers the performance from you know, 174 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: seventy credit analysts to a hundred quant and these people 175 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:31,599 Speaker 1: matter in terms of long term sustainable returns. So what 176 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: what often people don't see is the need for investment 177 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: inside the kitchen and the need for investment is growing. 178 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: One way, if you needed twenty people twenty years ago, 179 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 1: you need two hundreds today. Let's talk about that further. 180 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: I have so many people say I need a bigger team, 181 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: We need to invest in technology more digdator as the future. 182 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: Help me understand what you guys are actually doing right now, 183 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 1: how that you create alpha developed that story by investing 184 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: in tech, investing in people actually can be so real. 185 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:04,439 Speaker 1: Examples down how does it work? There are one areas technology, 186 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:10,360 Speaker 1: technology and analytics, acquiring larger data sets, UH, utilizing those 187 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: data sets, you know, understanding key drivers of return. We 188 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: even use this big data for economic forecasting, UH, coming 189 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: through a lot of offerings as well. So that's one area, 190 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: you know, the highly technical aspects of data collection. Another 191 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: area that we've been spending a lot of time and 192 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: many has been quite helpful in this arena is in 193 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 1: behavioral finance, UH, working with this research to make better 194 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: personal decisions when we look to retract. And we've got 195 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: a tough in amera. I mean, I mean the the 196 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 1: the biggest problem of fund management is other confidence. And 197 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 1: so we signed this partnership with University of Chicago. Why 198 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: because we wanted to have a way to rationally see 199 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,079 Speaker 1: how we make decision, what we do well, what we 200 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: do less well, how we optimize risk and a portfolio, 201 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 1: and be able to back that with data. Can you 202 00:10:57,840 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 1: give us a real life example of how this is 203 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 1: how in the last twelve months I've done sure. We 204 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: literally have teams that look at senior portfolio managers how 205 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 1: we make decisions across markets relative to what's optimal. So, 206 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: for example, do we tend to hold out to losers 207 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: a little bit longer than we should do. We run 208 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: with trades that are working out on behalf of investors 209 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 1: long enough. Uh, we get that information. It's sometimes puts 210 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:27,439 Speaker 1: us a little bit of an uncomfortable area because it 211 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 1: reminds you of how the brain is playing tricks. But 212 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, it leads to better 213 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,599 Speaker 1: structure where we can understand our own tendencies and biases, 214 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 1: even within the PIMCO group, ideally learned from it, and 215 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 1: then make better decisions going forward. And this is a 216 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,679 Speaker 1: type of research stream that we intend to continue for 217 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: many years to come. You've acted on these conclusions, Manti, Yes, 218 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: we do, we do, and I think I think it's 219 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 1: a constant evolution. Right, There's plenty of things we learned, 220 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 1: you know, we we were just were is welcome, Richard 221 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: THEATO is a consultant, you know, to think about a retirement, 222 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: but also to think of how we may decision. You know. 223 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: Then there's something great in the I. C is always 224 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: the last one to talk, so everyone has a chance 225 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: to opine, and the most senior guy is not the 226 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: one who lecture everybody for ten minutes before everyone has 227 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: a chance to talk with Guess what you know? People 228 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,839 Speaker 1: usually don't disagree with the buss once it's talk for 229 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,839 Speaker 1: ten minutes and so and so you need to have 230 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: a process and you need to think about the process, 231 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,719 Speaker 1: so everyone has a voice from other portfolio managers to 232 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: quant to behavior, finance and be able to kind of 233 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 1: combine all of this together to you know, make the 234 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 1: best possible portrait, even in the new office outside of 235 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: the comfort of the West coast. How's that going and 236 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:40,440 Speaker 1: how does that attract the kind of talent Ultimately one 237 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 1: of attracts at them card. So we thought, I mean, 238 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 1: I think Dan and I an executive committee, thought that 239 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: we needed an office to be able to hire talent 240 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:52,319 Speaker 1: and technology. And I think it's fair to say than 241 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: when it comes to hire tech people, we compete against 242 00:12:56,040 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 1: other financial companies, but we also compete against big tech 243 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: company and also startup And we looked at six different 244 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:11,959 Speaker 1: locations and concluded that Austin, given the university, was the 245 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:14,319 Speaker 1: best place for us over the next twenty years to 246 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: hire significant amount of talent and technology. And then we're 247 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,719 Speaker 1: going to move, you know, some small part of the 248 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,719 Speaker 1: businesses which makes sense to be in Texas, and so 249 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: that was quite attractive and we did a quite in 250 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 1: depth study and and and and you know, so far 251 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: we have a better hundred people down there. You've been expanding, 252 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: you've expanded in some municiples as well. What's left any 253 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: gaps here at PIMCOW that you're looking to fill and 254 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: it holds that you'd like to fill out the next 255 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 1: coming years. I think the main thing is not so 256 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: much what you need to feel, is whether you know 257 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: something about it and how you're going to grow it. 258 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,319 Speaker 1: And I think we are of the view that we 259 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: want to grow organically and that from time to time 260 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: there may be small things we can do and bring 261 00:13:55,520 --> 00:14:00,319 Speaker 1: to the PIMCO organization, but by large, it's hurrying people, 262 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: and it's make sure that we understand what we're good 263 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 1: at and what we're not good at, and and and 264 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:08,439 Speaker 1: and there's a lot of introspection which comes into this 265 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 1: and making sure that we do that well. And a 266 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: lot of what we're trying to do is anticipate the 267 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,599 Speaker 1: next investment opportunity for our clients. So, you know, we 268 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 1: talked about credit, credit issuance, development of markets. A lot 269 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: of that's a credit outside the United States with an 270 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: emerging markets across Asia. You know, even in pockets of Europe. 271 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 1: So a lot of our growth areas are focused on 272 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: where we anticipate there to be the best return. In 273 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: this business, you have to start sometimes multiple years before 274 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: that opportunity actually is out there and ready to be 275 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: realized upon. So that's one of the key areas of 276 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 1: our focus resources with a slight tilt towards credit outside 277 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: the United States, let's talk about private credit markets. Is 278 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: that an opportunity money that you'd like to ded what 279 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: it is? An opportunity and it's something that we've been 280 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 1: doing for limited that right, eleven years and it's an 281 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: opportunity and it's going to become even more attractive when 282 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: the business cycle turns. How scalable is it, Well, it's 283 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: never going to be as scalable as what PIMCO does 284 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: on the liquid side, and you know what, it doesn't matter. 285 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: But what we do think is that there are opportunity 286 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: because of what banks used to do that they don't 287 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: do anymore, for us to do various things. And it 288 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: goes from lending against real estate to buying securities in housing, 289 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: to being able to opportunistically do direct lending, to do 290 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: various private credit transaction which if managed properly and constructed 291 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: the right way, should deliver ten to twelve of the 292 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: business cycle, never fit and and and and that's the 293 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: opportunity for us and for other people and then big returns. 294 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: And they key question is other people. I mean, it's 295 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: an incredibly competitive environment right now. And we've talked about 296 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 1: areas whether it might be froth. Is that an area 297 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 1: down where that might be a better froth? Well, again, 298 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: you know, consistent with our views are corporate credit on 299 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: the public side. That's where we see the froth in 300 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: terms of direct corporate credit issuance. Outside the financial space. 301 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 1: We look at areas like commercial real estate, residential real estate, 302 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: private or public, we continue to see considerable opportunity. That's 303 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 1: a sector that, despite the global financial crisis being eleven 304 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: years past, where we still see frictions and markets where 305 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: we still see opportunities for investors on the private side 306 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: as well as the public side. And that's really been 307 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: our focus for now looking at the harvest opportunities within 308 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 1: that space. How important is that alquidity premium so to speak, 309 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: that you can get out of private credit markets money, Well, 310 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: it's it's two fold. I think I think we were 311 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: just written a paper on this. It's probably a couple 312 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: of percent and and and I'm I'm so over simplifying 313 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 1: what the paper is about. But people get compensated for 314 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: holding eloquent securities and and and there are people who 315 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: can very easily hold this kind of paper. I think 316 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: offensition plan for example, who don't need the liquidity you 317 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: think of insurance company. And so there are people who 318 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 1: can own this. And clearly it's one of the most 319 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 1: interesting risk preming. But more importantly, it's also a way 320 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,920 Speaker 1: to structure transaction where you think you have an edge 321 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 1: and where you understand an industry better than most. And 322 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: we're going to find part of what we're currently doing 323 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 1: very very attractive and some other things not so attractive. 324 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: And I think we we're quite cognizant of that. We're 325 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: recognizing the liquidity is one thing. The liquidity illusion in 326 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: public markets down is something you've talked about in the past, 327 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: and I'd like to talk to you about it now. 328 00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 1: Do you think enough people are focused on that You've 329 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: talked about financial market vulnerability is the potential for more 330 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: gaping markets. It's a market that's got bigger participation, arguably 331 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 1: is increased over the last several years. And yet fundamentally, 332 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: just in term sort of structure, it's a market that's 333 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 1: got weaker. Just makes sense of that for people, Well, 334 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: people talk about it, people are aware of the risks. 335 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: Then you'll have a volatility event like the fourth quarter 336 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: last year. When you look at returns, it appears that 337 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: people are more exposed to this. Uh. These less liquid 338 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,040 Speaker 1: areas of the market then would be suggested from the rhetoric, 339 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 1: but we haven't been tested yet. Volatilities have been relatively 340 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: low the last several years. UM. You just have to 341 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: take a look and feel the markets from a day 342 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 1: to day trading perspective to know that when views shift, 343 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: there's going to be overshooting. Uh. And we don't necessarily 344 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 1: mean that this is going to lead to another financial 345 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: crisis per se. We do think it's gonna lead a 346 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: disappointment in the form of overshooting. You'll constantly in and 347 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: out of the market. What's changed in the last five years? 348 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: What is it that has changed that you can identify 349 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: just in terms of being in and out of the market. 350 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: What's different it's really been the last decade. UM. There's 351 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: less willingness for market participants to step in and provide 352 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: a buffer when investor views change. More often than not, 353 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 1: in the type of markets we operate in today, it's 354 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 1: about lining up a buyron seller on the other side. 355 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: If that buyer does it happen to be there or 356 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: seller does it happen to be there, you end up 357 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: with this overshooting dynamic. So liquidity management from the standpoint 358 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 1: of an active asset manager needs to be top of 359 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 1: mind today and I think that that's going to be 360 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 1: likely one of the route awakenings that we referred to 361 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 1: in our in our more recent secular out And I 362 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: think generational experience also matters, and that's one of the 363 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 1: things that we've explored in terms of behavioral finance, the 364 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 1: fact that that when you've seen different business cycle you 365 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: sort of recognize pattern. You know, this looks like nineteen 366 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: one and this looks like nine, And I think what 367 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: has changes. You have a whole generation of people who 368 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 1: basically sort of greatest boolmarket since two dozand and nine 369 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: and us keep on going up really steadily for a 370 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: very very long time. When you have the committe's meetings, 371 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 1: do you see the difference in terms of investor buses 372 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: within PIMCO based on the age, based on the demographics. 373 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: Is that something you see quite clearly, we noticed differences 374 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: of you. Now, whether that's I s or perspective is 375 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: always tough to up front. I think it's a little 376 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: bit of both. From time to time, it is a 377 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: worry that it's been a long long time since people 378 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 1: have gone through a period of heightened volatility or have 379 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: gone through a credit cycle. And that's why sometimes you know, 380 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: as an active asset manager, it's best to sit back, 381 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: be patient and read economic history books as opposed to 382 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: be on your terminal trading every day. I mean, it 383 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 1: gives you Bloomberg come on money one bias and give 384 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: you one bias one biases. You know, we do like 385 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: company who eventually makes money. Now, it's okay to lose 386 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 1: money for a while. It's even okay to lose money 387 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 1: for a long time if you're acquiring a lot of customers. 388 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, we're sort of 389 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 1: hoping that there will be an at some point in 390 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 1: time and people do make money. So you guys, I 391 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: think that's that's that's there's a generation of people who 392 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 1: clearly think it doesn't matter. Essentially, you guys, then therefore 393 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 1: looking to be what you called liquidity providers and not 394 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: liquidity demanders. There's a period of time that you're waiting 395 00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: for that's building a moment where you want to keep 396 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: this dry powderforn have senced it all day speaking to you, guys, 397 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: I mean this could be several years away. Are you 398 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: willing to sit out the period of excess that could develop? 399 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: I've prepaired us a couple of years. Then are you 400 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,239 Speaker 1: willing to want to perform what say some of your 401 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: payers could be delivering in terms of gains by being defensive? 402 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,919 Speaker 1: The answer is yes. The good news is there's been 403 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: enough localized volatility dislocation over the last couple of years 404 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: where you can be defensive, you can be patient, you 405 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:32,280 Speaker 1: can be relatively liquid and still generating incremental return. If 406 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 1: you get to a point like we were in back 407 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: in two thousand five or two thousand six, where there's 408 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: a direct trade off between short term performance UH and 409 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: being defensive, we absolutely willing to do that. It's absolutely 410 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,360 Speaker 1: essential as an active manager and perfectly consistent with generating 411 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 1: strong returns open It's not just something you're willing to do, 412 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 1: it's something you're anticipating happening, isn't it. That's correct? And 413 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: I think that you know, maybe you see a boxers 414 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,640 Speaker 1: analogy that this is a counterpunching type market. Um, sit back, 415 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 1: be patient, and wait for others in the market to 416 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: ask for liquidity and then provided, assuming you're getting sufficiently compensated. 417 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 1: So it's subtle, but it means be defensive, the patient, 418 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: be more liquid, look for lots of little trades along 419 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 1: the way that hopefully can generate some incremental return, and 420 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: then strike when you have these bouts of volatility. We 421 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 1: haven't had that much of that the last decade, but 422 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: going forward the next five or ten years, we think 423 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: it's a type of environment where that style of active 424 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 1: management's going to win out in the end. No, I 425 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: very much agree, and I think I think that we 426 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: were sort of hoping for more difficult environment and and 427 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,879 Speaker 1: and once again, whether it happens in six months so 428 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 1: in in two years, it's very hard to chord it. 429 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 1: But um, but I think we're going the firm for 430 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 1: more to mature of this market and and and making 431 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: sure we have the resources and we have a game bran. 432 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: And I think having a game bran and sort of 433 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 1: thinking about various options and various opportunities is what we 434 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: get paid to do. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 435 00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interview us on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 436 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 437 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: Tom Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 438 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio