1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 3 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal, and I'm Tracy Alloway. 4 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: Tracy US exceptionalist. Like, to my mind, the big question 5 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: for investors is, like we've had this fifteen year plus 6 00:00:34,240 --> 00:00:37,200 Speaker 2: run of where it's like the only game in town 7 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 2: has been you invested in the US, you did not 8 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 2: get paid for diversification. Arguably, you didn't even get paid 9 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 2: for diversification within the US because you should have just 10 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: been in techtocs the entire time. Yeah, but I really 11 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 2: feel like this is the moment where people are asking, like, 12 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 2: is this one trade that's worked out so well? Is 13 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 2: it coming to an end? 14 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 3: You know what? I really like? I like talking about 15 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 3: US exceptionalism in markets because no one immediately starts debating 16 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 3: like the definition of US exceptionalism. That drives me crazy, 17 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 3: right because in the broader realm of like just some 18 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 3: politics or society or life, like, is the U s exciy? 19 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: But in markets it's unambiguous. Yes, in markets it's unambiguous. 20 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: The US assets have just been where you want to 21 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 2: be for a long time. 22 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 3: So not only have US equities outperformed recently, but they've 23 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: really come to dominate the market as a whole, like 24 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 3: as a proportion of the market. So the entire world, 25 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 3: you know, even with US stocks falling recently, the entire 26 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 3: world basically still has an overweight on America. 27 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 2: The world is overweight. No, I mean, it's true, true. 28 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: And if you're a global manager and your benchmark is 29 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: the MSc, i AWS or whatever, you know, it's still 30 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 2: in large party US trade. By the way, I was 31 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: looking at the Bank of America Fund manager survey today, 32 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: which is one of my favorites, and after two straight 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: years of long mag seven being identified by fund manager 34 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 2: Jersey is the perceived most crowded trade and this most 35 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 2: recent month was gold, which was really interesting. 36 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 3: So it's finally changed right after it. Yeah, that was 37 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 3: the thing because like for years and years and years, 38 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: everyone was like, oh fangs like big text, so crowded like, 39 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 3: and the suggestion was don't even bother buying because the 40 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 3: valuation is just so eyewatering at the moment. But in actuality, 41 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,399 Speaker 3: if you wanted to not even outperform, but like meet 42 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 3: your benchmar that was the only trade was by tech. 43 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 2: This is the true pain trade. Right, because it's like 44 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,399 Speaker 2: everybody is log tech, everybody is overweight tech. How could 45 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: you make money buy tech? And yet you still had 46 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 2: to buy tech just to keep up? And so now 47 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 2: there's the question is the pain trade reverse? Because if 48 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 2: there's so many people are so into tech and so 49 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 2: into the US, can they actually make the risk and 50 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 2: take the move of like, you know what, I'm going 51 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 2: to overweigh Germany or I'm gonna buy Chinese stocks or 52 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 2: whatever it is. And these are I think this is 53 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 2: the moment where like you have to get this call right, 54 00:02:58,720 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 2: This is the call of the. 55 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 3: Moment, and you haven't really had to do that before. 56 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 3: Now things are getting interested, right. 57 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 2: We all know the backdrop of all this, so we 58 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 2: don't really have to do that in the intro. But 59 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 2: I'm very excited about our guests. We're still here in London. 60 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 2: We are going to be speaking with Ozon Turman. Here's 61 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 2: the vice chair of Global Macro at Deutsche Bank, and 62 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 2: he talks and thinks about all of these questions with 63 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 2: his clients all the time. They're going to get a 64 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 2: slice of what he's thinking about. Ozon, thank you so much. 65 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 2: Great to be here with you in person. 66 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 4: Wonderful to be here. Honestly, I'm a big fan. I 67 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 4: listen to you guys all the time. My clients and 68 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 4: friends are big fens. Is great to be here. This 69 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 4: is my hometown. 70 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 2: This is very important to us. I say that we're 71 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 2: sorry when no guests say this on the episode. We 72 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 2: hate when they say it before the recording starts. He's like, 73 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 2: that was a total waste. Do you agree with the 74 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 2: premise that I set up that this is essentially the 75 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,920 Speaker 2: big question that everyone has to grapple with right now? 76 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 2: In markets? 77 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 4: We fought with doubts and quite tiringly. 78 00:03:57,320 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 2: Sorry to exhausted, We're exhausted too. 79 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 4: I mean we were very exhausted after deliberation day, but 80 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 4: even before all that, we were exhausted from how wrong 81 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 4: the whole jen to Gen twenty consensus went. Everybody and 82 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 4: their brother were believing SMP would go anywhere between seven 83 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 4: thousand to six thousand, five hundreds and ty US ten 84 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 4: year would go to five percent. It kind of did, 85 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 4: but for all the wrong reasons. And then Eurote the 86 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 4: other right and everybody who's saying parity believe me politely, 87 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 4: deep inside, they were believing zero point ninety five that 88 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 4: dollar CNH would go to eight. I can go on 89 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:37,799 Speaker 4: and on and why right, First of all, this US exceptionalism, 90 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 4: we can go into take it as well, But first 91 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 4: and foremost it was about fiscal expansion. US was the one, 92 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 4: the big one, printing the most, especially after the Homerican 93 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 4: and on top yes, the Magnificent Seven, the wonderful Silicon 94 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 4: Valley story, and belief that Germany, Europe and China, for 95 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 4: different reasons, would never match the same fiscal ambitions. All 96 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 4: these three things I mentioned are completely turned on their heads. 97 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:13,239 Speaker 4: From deep seek to Germany's one in fact one point 98 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 4: one trillion, to China holding onto their currency and choosing 99 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 4: more fiscal all the consensus traits and views are thrown 100 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 4: into the water. 101 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: It is true. In January we recorded that episode with 102 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 3: the ECB's chief economist and it was basically about all 103 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 3: the challenges facing Europe. And then like two months later, 104 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 3: European stocks are surging. Everyone's getting very excited about that market. 105 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 3: I have what I imagine might be a difficult question, 106 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 3: but maybe it's not for you. How much of this 107 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 3: has to do with things being really bad in the 108 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:52,320 Speaker 3: States versus things actually going well in Europe? 109 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 4: I really like that question. It's not a difficult question. 110 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 4: Actually it's a key question. At the very beginning of 111 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 4: the year, it was more about the rest of the 112 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 4: world doing such better than expected. Germany step is a 113 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 4: huge step. After the election, I held a micro dinners 114 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 4: in Frankfurt, as you do, and both are big cheeses. 115 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 4: And some of our key clients really did not see 116 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 4: this coming. Maybe three hundred billion, maybe four hundred billion, 117 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 4: mainly on defense after the shocking mini but infrastructure, health, 118 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,479 Speaker 4: education was hardly mentioned. Something like one point one trillion. 119 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 4: My head of rates trading was throwing that out as 120 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 4: an idea, which was quickly pushed back. Then the Hamburg 121 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 4: local elections happened and right away Merz came up with 122 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 4: that numbers and before the new parliament sets in. That's 123 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 4: sometimes these words hyper bowls are used too much, but 124 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 4: that was a historic step on top of China deep seek. 125 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 4: That was a big, big development. I mean I was 126 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 4: jumping up and down on my Bloomberg on Saturday and 127 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 4: Sunday of that weekend. Whatever you want to believe. I mean, 128 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 4: maybe they'll do it for five, maybe they do it 129 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 4: for fifty. They definitely don't do it for two billion 130 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 4: or one trillion, right, So Deep Seek will change the 131 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 4: world for Magnificent seven and all of us consumers. But 132 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 4: then to Tracy's question, recently it's becoming more about us 133 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 4: hurting itself, us hurting its soft power, US creating a 134 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 4: confidence crisis in a way. With full respect to Scott Bessant, 135 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 4: who's been a dear client friend as well, who's been 136 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 4: to some of my New York mac readiners, when he 137 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 4: says what mag seven goes through a court has got 138 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 4: nothing to do with Mega is more about a deep 139 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 4: seak issue, I would kindly disagree with that. Of course, 140 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 4: Deep Seek, as I told you, has got many factors 141 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 4: to do with it, but Tariff's much more than people expected, 142 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 4: ended up shooting us on its own leg. 143 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 2: Is Deep Seek about deep seak or is it a 144 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 2: metonym for the rise of competitive Chinese tech? 145 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 4: I think more for the letter, But my friends that 146 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 4: I do trust in beyond the market yours from the 147 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 4: start believed that it was It was real. Some things, 148 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 4: it did much better than Chatchibt, and I think us 149 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 4: since it has given me my education as well. The 150 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 4: first reaction to it was the US. I know this 151 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 4: is for real, it may help all of us. Let's compete. 152 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 4: So in that sense it was good for humanity as well. 153 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 4: But yes, that was the first step in the in 154 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 4: this year in which China said hey, I'm here. Then 155 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 4: the second big step was last Wednesday, I mean Joint 156 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:32,679 Speaker 4: Tracey last Wednesday, unfortunately, five six hours before this, when 157 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 4: I woke up to see the China fix to see 158 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 4: if they devalued big or not. And when I was 159 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 4: leave to see they haven't, then I looked at US 160 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 4: ten year as you do, and Euro dollar and then 161 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 4: I didn't unfortunately sleep why. 162 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: Because I didn't sleep that either. I was on my 163 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 2: couch updating my Bloomberg gap on my phone, just looking at. 164 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 4: Ten Imagine imagine if we did this one week, because 165 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 4: US ten year had gone to four to fifty five 166 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 4: and at the same time dollar was weakening. So even 167 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,559 Speaker 4: that Sunday, three days ago, I kind of knew this 168 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 4: was the vibe. Some people were really worried about it, 169 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 4: but I didn't see. I didn't see in two days 170 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 4: dollar melting like that, and at the same time US 171 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 4: long ends being basically lost ten and thirty. That is 172 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 4: my troa. I grew up in emerging markets. My first 173 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 4: responsibility was emerging markets again, no more hyperbole. That was 174 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 4: emerging markets like trading that stage, you know, I almost 175 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 4: wanted to shout out responsibility, like almost like an AMC 176 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 4: to the market. Somebody needs to blink, somebody needs to come. 177 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 4: I thought it could be fed and right that afternoon 178 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:42,719 Speaker 4: President blinked for the first time. Yeah. 179 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,559 Speaker 3: You know what else was very emerging markets e that week, 180 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 3: you know, having policymakers calling for rate cuts when the 181 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 3: dollar was falling and yields were growing up, like that 182 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 3: is classic EM right, Well, I. 183 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 2: Was thinking that if we were classic EM, wouldn't be 184 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 2: IMF peoples be calling for rate hikes and cuts in 185 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 2: that environment? Would they say, oh, you know, you need 186 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:07,199 Speaker 2: an independent central bank that like is committed to orthodoxy. 187 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 2: You got a hike at these. 188 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 4: Environment that, my friend, you guys are in London, We're honored. That, unfortunately, 189 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 4: is the trust moment. We went through that in this 190 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 4: island just three years ago. But even then, at the 191 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 4: height of the panic, when quite justifiably somewhere calling for 192 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 4: a hike, Bank of England instead chose que. At that 193 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:30,720 Speaker 4: time as well, people said, oh that may be inflation 194 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 4: at the end, et cetera. But that ended up calming 195 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 4: things down. I do believe, first of all, last week, 196 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 4: if President didn't blink and tan year and thirty content 197 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 4: to sell off with the dollars selling off em style, 198 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 4: I think FED would have come definitely, and the QT 199 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 4: I mean that we can talk about that. I think 200 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 4: that they will do that right away in May anyway. 201 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 4: But I think they would do q E as well, 202 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 4: not cut. I think probably doesn't want to cut because 203 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 4: of all the inflation growth dynamics, but they would have 204 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 4: done that. And I don't agree with some of my 205 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 4: dear client friends who say even QE inflationary wouldn't long 206 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 4: and react to that even more. Maybe they are kindly 207 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,719 Speaker 4: talking their book if we have. If you go through 208 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 4: that kind of episode, a QE may calm things down. 209 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 4: But Trump blinked two or three times, so I'm not 210 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 4: too sure. Famous last words, we'll go through that fat 211 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 4: QI stage. Now. There's a big, big, big debate already 212 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,959 Speaker 4: in the market. Even though my dear friends are tighter 213 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 4: than and wounded, do you play for the next leg 214 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 4: to come one more quote unquote attack towards four fifty 215 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 4: and higher in US ten year much more importantly five 216 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 4: percent and higher in thirty years. Or do recession warriors 217 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:51,720 Speaker 4: and growth warries always outweigh Is it now when warriors peak? 218 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 4: Is it now time to receive I kind of have 219 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 4: a lean towards this the letter, and it has won 220 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 4: by twenty five base points as I speak, So something 221 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 4: may have become. 222 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 3: One of the reasons we wanted to talk to you 223 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 3: is because you are constantly speaking and arguing over these 224 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:26,320 Speaker 3: trading ideas with your clients. And I guess I'm curious 225 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 3: about the arguing. Yes, I guess I'm curious. Is anyone 226 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 3: buying the Trump administration argument that like, Okay, we're taking 227 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 3: some short term pain in exchange for longer term better 228 00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 3: economic growth. Is that something that people like are actually 229 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,120 Speaker 3: positioning for. Is that resonating at all with your clients? 230 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 4: Again, very good question. Up until mid February end of February, 231 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 4: a lot of them did. Now, we don't think about it, 232 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 4: but you know, you're at one, thirteen, one fifteen back 233 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 4: then told even one ten year old was like, come on, 234 00:12:59,520 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 4: you know, calm down, et cetera. Because people did believe 235 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 4: tariffs have to be inflationary. Market is not believing market 236 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 4: is not pricing it, that's why it's not happening, et cetera, 237 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 4: et cetera. Then credibility started to become an issue when 238 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 4: you start with Canada and Mexico, and when you don't 239 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 4: mention China that much, then you decide to do something 240 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,959 Speaker 4: on Canada and Mexico even though market and most economists 241 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 4: are revolting. You immediately step back, delayed for one month. 242 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 4: You start losing credibility. Then people start relaxing about deliberation. 243 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 4: Day you come up with this big sign with very 244 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 4: you know, let's say creative way of calculating it, and 245 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 4: you hit China and Asia the most. Then people say 246 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 4: there's a credibility year. 247 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 2: Actually this reminds me because you and I met for 248 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,680 Speaker 2: coffee in New York City like three or four weeks ago, 249 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 2: and I think one of the comments at the time 250 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 2: and now that this seems like ancient history, but the 251 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 2: thinking at the time was like, oh, it's interesting. Trump 252 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: is hammering care in Mexico a lot more rhetorically than 253 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 2: he has China. Maybe he's gonna go easy on China. 254 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 2: And I had forgotten that that was actually in the 255 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 2: discourse even like three weeks ago. 256 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 4: I do remember our conversation as well, and you made 257 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 4: me think too because when I said, I still believe, like, look, 258 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:19,119 Speaker 4: I think for this year, this yours, us ex exceptions 259 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 4: in trade is here to stay. It's not just a 260 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 4: one quarter thing. Because that I heard a lot as well, 261 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 4: was on good call. We like your blue mega hat, 262 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 4: but it's just one month, it's just two months. This 263 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 4: is just three months. Yea, well now it's one fifteen, 264 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 4: et cetera. But then you told me, look, China, they're 265 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 4: doing a lot better in ev and solar, they're tried 266 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 4: starting to do better in in tech, in fiscal, so 267 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 4: maybe we are not that exceptional after all you had 268 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 4: told me. And then also on that going easy on China, 269 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 4: he was trying to hide these cards. Then he went 270 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 4: seventh years. But China is playing a good one if 271 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 4: a lot of people back to that Wednesday when we 272 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 4: didn't sleep, a lot of people fear that either that 273 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 4: Wednesday or that Thursday, China would be value big. To 274 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 4: be fair to both my research and trading Perry Malica, 275 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 4: we really believe that people shouldn't exaggerate. They would hold 276 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 4: they would hold the ground. And it was to their 277 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 4: advantage to choose fiscal more so far so right that, 278 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 4: and that also proving making things quite difficult for the president, 279 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 4: Like even this morning, right I opened up, Okay, it's 280 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 4: more colorful for Tracy and Joe. Not wonderful, but SMP 281 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 4: down seventeen as back down three hundred and fifty. And 282 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 4: then as I was walking to the tube, China may 283 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 4: talk to you, guys if you show respect immediately smally 284 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 4: seventy points. 285 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:41,040 Speaker 2: By the way for listeners. We were recording this Wednesday, 286 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 2: April sixteenth. It is ten fifty eight London time, five 287 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 2: fifty eight New York City time. We always have to 288 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 2: get these in. 289 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. 290 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 3: I think it's so funny. We actually have to include 291 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 3: the exact time now, which we didn't have to do before. 292 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 4: You usuld just do days. Yeah. I like that before ECB, 293 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 4: before Pubble sticks in Chicago. 294 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. Well, okay, So on the tech front, one 295 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 3: thing I don't get is so much of the American 296 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 3: exceptionalism trade has been about AI enthusiasm and this idea 297 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 3: that America has a head start and no real competitors, 298 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 3: at least up until the unleashing slash arrival of Deep 299 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 3: Seek in Europe. We still haven't really seen a real 300 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 3: contender in the AI space. I think that's fair to say, 301 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 3: And there has been this long running disappointment that Europe 302 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 3: is just not where other places like the US and 303 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,160 Speaker 3: China are when it comes to cutting edge technology. That 304 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 3: hasn't changed as far as I can tell, but it 305 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 3: seems like investors are kind of willing to overlook that. 306 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 3: Or maybe they think that US isolationist political policy and 307 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 3: the idea that Europe is going to have to come 308 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 3: together to fight Russia and you make up for a 309 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 3: less active US. Maybe that's going to be the thing 310 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,480 Speaker 3: that sparks technological advance a. 311 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 4: Bit of both. I think, first of all, especially Germany, 312 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 4: about Europe can invent itself. That's going to take a 313 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 4: little bit of time. In the meantime, things like ARNI media, 314 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,880 Speaker 4: so things like lvmh airms have to carry outs which 315 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 4: didn't happen yesterday because of what's going on with China, 316 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 4: so it will need time. At the moment, Europe does AI, 317 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 4: but does the chips, like the part of the chips 318 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 4: that helps the asmls and tsmcs of the world. Germany 319 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 4: doesn't necessarily have its own asml SO. But at the 320 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 4: same time, yeah, this is a country, at least the 321 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 4: country Germany, but overall continent that has shown that it 322 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 4: can reinvent itself. It's not going to happen in two 323 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 4: three months. But all these for the pass, all these 324 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:46,719 Speaker 4: unforced errors America is making, is giving the old continent sometime. 325 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 2: Europe is arguably now the leading I mean with that 326 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:57,640 Speaker 2: clearly the most advanced place in the world for aerospace technology. 327 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 2: And we had those headlines today. Are sorry yesterday about 328 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,959 Speaker 2: China halting deliveries of Boeing. Already Boeing was falling behind 329 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 2: airba Is, largely due to operational problems. There is clearly 330 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 2: still some just sort of like classical industrial might on 331 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 2: the continent. Much of an aerospace probably you know, engines, 332 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 2: other parts that feel like areas for potential further growth. 333 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 4: Agreed. Look, I go back and forth between three categories. 334 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 4: Two categories. Category one is you know, after having a 335 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 4: great four month, I'll be wrong. US exceptionalism will be 336 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 4: fully back. This was all a joke America, America. Yeah. 337 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 4: Category two for reasons like you outlined, Europe European industrialism, 338 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 4: China will continue to lead the lead the pack. To 339 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 4: be honest, it's going much better than I would have taught. 340 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 4: This much outperformance didn't happened since nineteen eighty, et cetera. 341 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 4: It's going to be continued team and Category three USA 342 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 4: in America will take everything down. It will be such 343 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 4: a sea is confidence the market crisis that with all 344 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 4: the respect to European aerospace, is that the Danish. 345 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 2: Kill Globar place. 346 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 4: I go back on how can you not you go 347 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 4: back and forth these three or two categories. My gut 348 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,879 Speaker 4: feel and reasoning still is that category to the broad 349 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 4: team of twenty twenty five will win because why I 350 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,919 Speaker 4: think President will continue to blink. And also I have 351 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 4: a backstop now. I do believe if things get very 352 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 4: ugly five percent and more US thirty or ugly in 353 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 4: US said will come with with Q At this Collins 354 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 4: last Friday, she gave a hint. She said the one 355 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 4: more world fear ambitiously whatever the world. She didn't just 356 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 4: say watching We're definitely what she was the first one 357 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,680 Speaker 4: to give. Most investors believe that they could come with 358 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 4: more steps. And then Waller. I know that now Waller 359 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 4: people are half joking about is he really saying it 360 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 4: or is he love being for the job? Yeah, yeah, 361 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 4: but he's you know, he's I think he does believe it. 362 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 4: He's a respected man, and he did hint that cuts 363 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 4: can be frontloaded if things get uglier. So, first of all, 364 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 4: I believe blinks will continue from the White House. But 365 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 4: even if they don't, I think we have the backing 366 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 4: of the of the FED. 367 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 3: You know, I mentioned in the intro this idea that 368 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 3: the world has sort of de facto overweight the US 369 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 3: just because of the it's the market size and it's 370 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: waiting in a bunch of different benchmarks. Does that provide 371 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 3: like some cushion for US equities selling off, like the 372 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 3: fact that you do have index investors, passive investors that 373 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 3: have to be hugging a certain benchmark which happens to 374 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 3: be filled with a lot of American equities. 375 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 4: Completely agreed exactly, Tracy. In a simple way of putting it. 376 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 4: I was discussing with a senior colleague yesterday. This is 377 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 4: great because let's go right into that real location, the 378 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 4: big team. Right, if big players were really in the 379 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 4: big sense of the world with a big r reallocating 380 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 4: away from the US, there will be a lot of 381 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 4: circuit breakers in a SMP. I don't want to sound, 382 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,479 Speaker 4: but that is the know it would be. I'm not 383 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 4: sure how SMP would open tomorrow morning. So there's a 384 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 4: difference between even these big real money so well funds 385 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 4: trading in their own time zone and making much bigger, 386 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 4: much longer dated decisions. So I think this letter it's more. 387 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 4: We do want headlines, especially of emerging markets effects people. 388 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 4: We do get excited, but through through through big reallocation, 389 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 4: I don't think we're there yet. That being said, there 390 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 4: are trades, so this big it's not just my wonderful 391 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 4: dhe funds friends fast money getting what's the world trump 392 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 4: us queasy, It's beyond its yippy, it's it's it's more 393 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 4: serious than that. 394 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, No, Tracy wrote a great note about that yesterday 395 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: or the day before. I can't track. It's like there's 396 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 2: like real money, real money actually moving away. 397 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 4: You know. 398 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:07,480 Speaker 2: Everyone looks for analogies to pass experiences, and this like 399 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 2: is this like great financial crisis? Is there like a 400 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 2: run element? Is this like COVID where it's a supply shop? 401 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 2: Next element is this like the Liz Trust. A moment 402 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 2: where I don't really like the term because I don't 403 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 2: like insulting people. But you hear that term more on 404 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 2: risk premium exists. The other you know, when when you 405 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,160 Speaker 2: describe okay, what if the FED comes into backstop. Another 406 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 2: possibility is a Brexit analogy in which there's not an 407 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 2: immediate crisis. Really is just the start of a slow 408 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 2: degradation of the economy. It sounds like when you're in 409 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,199 Speaker 2: that number two spot where it's like, okay, there's some 410 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:49,199 Speaker 2: blinking going on, there's some FED backstopping going on. That 411 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 2: it may be that is the analogy perhaps that we 412 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:52,920 Speaker 2: should be thinking. 413 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 4: I mean, soft powerty is being eroded my alma mater. 414 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 4: I'm biased on the issue about Harvard headlines, right, that 415 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 4: doesn't help the global perception, whatever your politics is. So 416 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,879 Speaker 4: in that sense. In fact, when I was trying to 417 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 4: get some sympathy from some clients while you know, forwarding 418 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 4: around the Harvard headlines, one of them did say, did 419 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 4: say immediate answered US's breaks it moments to your point. 420 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 4: So for it to get more cious, uglier and GFC 421 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:25,679 Speaker 4: like that than that is the big world. DM credits 422 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 4: them credit that needs to shake for it to become 423 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 4: you know that For a bit more online length. 424 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 3: What's the trade Because we can all sit here and 425 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 3: talk about these big macro themes like American exceptionalism, but 426 00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 3: like you know, given some of the restrictions on large investors, 427 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,199 Speaker 3: and given the reality of trading in certain markets, like 428 00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 3: you know, Chinese assets, what exactly do you do here? 429 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 4: I think, Look, first of all, I do believe forty 430 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,440 Speaker 4: eight fifty in SMP may may have been a base 431 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 4: of floor. Even if I'm wrong on that, if we 432 00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 4: go down towards that very fast, more fate blinking and 433 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 4: c will come very fast. So I think it will 434 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 4: bounce very very fast that I will forget that I 435 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 4: was wrong. I continue to believe Europe and China has 436 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 4: a lot of fiscal rooms. So I feel at the 437 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 4: moment quite confident that Ducks MDX, the medium caps and 438 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,160 Speaker 4: China take will continue to weigh out for utperformed us 439 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 4: on race we had started discussing with Joe. I do 440 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,640 Speaker 4: have sympathy that receivers from here. On the long end, 441 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 4: it will work that maybe that may be a big trade. 442 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 4: Actually talking about despite tiredness and wound wounds, a crowded trade, 443 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 4: scheapness still crowded because on paper, it does make sense, 444 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 4: you know, for different reasons for US and Europe. But 445 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 4: short end may may stay, may stay lower, and long 446 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 4: end may get may get sold off more on that one. 447 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 4: So I think flattened at that certain stage may give 448 00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 4: pain to people. ECB for example, Okay, she will cut tomorrow, 449 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 4: but I don't think there's so many unknowns right how 450 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 4: the tariff negotiations will go, et cetera. On June. She 451 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 4: will not blink. She will not give you the hint 452 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 4: that this will continue on June. And if people started 453 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 4: getting worried about the June skip there you go. That's 454 00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 4: not gonna help your steepener. Our official call is that 455 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,399 Speaker 4: terminal rate in Europe is all the way down to 456 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 4: one point five my excellent chief economists marked world does 457 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,920 Speaker 4: get pushed back from that in Spains and Italy is 458 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 4: of the world, even before the recent developments and even 459 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,800 Speaker 4: before you went to one thirteen soft dollars. Look, we're 460 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 4: talking big levels on on euro on end, on on swissy, 461 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 4: on gold. But my bias is still to sell any 462 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 4: dollar allies. 463 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 2: So we're talking about that Wednesday night when dollar was telling. 464 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 4: Off morning Wednesday morning, las Wednesday morning actually was for me. 465 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,199 Speaker 2: It was Tuesday night, but I mean it spends tesday night, 466 00:25:58,600 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 2: Tuesday night. 467 00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,479 Speaker 4: We all know, we all know what's luckier to you. 468 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I was upload that was the that was 469 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 2: the Tuesday night. I didn't get any sleepy. And as 470 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 2: you said, this is you're like, this is em style trading, 471 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 2: right when you see all three equities, treasuries and the 472 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:20,239 Speaker 2: dollar going down. If we were actually talking about the 473 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 2: US as an em if you're an analyst, as a 474 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 2: you know, uh, cell set talk, there would be a 475 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 2: lot more you know, there'd be a lot of talk 476 00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 2: about politics and how politics works. And you know what 477 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 2: is it is? There is there an independent central bank, 478 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 2: et cetera. Like how much of the conversation is really 479 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:45,160 Speaker 2: becoming about stability of just like the sort of internal workings. 480 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 3: Political order, institutional strength again, radiated elements. 481 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 4: I mean, in that kind of sense, if we half 482 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 4: revisits that your Tuesday night and if President sends five 483 00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 4: more tweets about foot cut right away, not good. Some 484 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 4: people even believe on the Friday speech, I don't know 485 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 4: now two weeks before, if President didn't tweet five minutes 486 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 4: before the guy spoke, I mean conspiracy theory, but maybe 487 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 4: he wouldn't. He wouldn't prefer inflation that much over growth. 488 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 4: So if you create that kind of fed independency question mark, 489 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,719 Speaker 4: it's not gonna help your It's not gonna help your 490 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 4: trade at this moment, talking about them. If this thing 491 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 4: goes like this, America needs friends, America finance needs friends. 492 00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 4: Powell and Bestent when they auction need friends. So talking 493 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 4: about the m right whenever the president these days, things 494 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 4: can change. As a very successful political person, needless to say, 495 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,959 Speaker 4: but as of now, whatever the topic is, from tariffs 496 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 4: to Powell to Harvard, when he talks and writes too 497 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,679 Speaker 4: much about an issue, it doesn't help with this capital 498 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 4: Tracy's capital allocation situation. Real money sells dollars mathematics, and 499 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 4: at the moment he needs real money to buy his dogs. 500 00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 3: I'm not going to say that the US is an 501 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 3: emerging market, but I am going to ask you, with 502 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 3: all of your emerging market experience, what advice do you 503 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 3: have for people who are trying to trade the US 504 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 3: at the moment. 505 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:39,400 Speaker 4: I mean, watch the three key people, Trump, Powell, She 506 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,080 Speaker 4: who's going to blink when I think that would be 507 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 4: my advice? Even a week ago, Trump already showed that 508 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,040 Speaker 4: maybe he has less cars. He's blinking. Then the second 509 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 4: thing is, you know, I mentioned Collins, I mentioned Wohlers 510 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 4: and not Cuts. But I do believe that Qis is 511 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,479 Speaker 4: out there, so I think we have the backing off 512 00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 4: the Fed. And then finally she even though okay, he 513 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 4: has the cards, but this is not good. Right, at 514 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 4: some stage they need to talk even the basic what 515 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 4: we quote unquote expected after this, after the president rallies 516 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 4: last year ten percent for everyone else, sixty percent China 517 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 4: even that's much better than this. So at some stage 518 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,479 Speaker 4: there will be that summit between between them and we 519 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 4: will be at a better stage. So this all, this 520 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 4: all makes sense. That that's why I'm not category three. Yeah, 521 00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 4: that's why I'm You know, we will be okay, maybe 522 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 4: fourty eight fifty will hold, but the rest of the 523 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 4: world and Europe will do better. If I believe that 524 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 4: Trump wouldn't blink because of ideology, whatever, If I believe 525 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 4: that power will say your problem, not even q E, 526 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 4: and if I believe that China would play a very 527 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 4: very even even a tougher hand, then I would fear, Yeah, 528 00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 4: I would fear breaks it or owe it like seeings 529 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 4: more I don't. 530 00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 2: I just have one last question. It's kind of a curveball, 531 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 2: and I'm certainly not asking you to like make your 532 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 2: call or trade. 533 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:01,760 Speaker 4: You know. 534 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 2: One thing that I've noticed though over the last couple 535 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:09,400 Speaker 2: of weeks is that bitcoin has not actually been as 536 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 2: tech stock likes it. I used to joke that bitcoin 537 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,760 Speaker 2: traded like three tech stocks in a trench code. And 538 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 2: I'm wondering, when you talk to people, we all know 539 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 2: it's a speculative trade whatever, that's my point, But when 540 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 2: you talk to people, particularly in ems, do you get 541 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 2: the sense that people take it for real as a 542 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 2: monetary asset, that they want to have some allocation to 543 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 2: it that's separate from all of this. 544 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 4: Can I answer that and then add one more team 545 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 4: that I wanted? Yeah, So bitcoin answer is it was 546 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,240 Speaker 4: just going to It was about to become even more 547 00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 4: serious in a good sense. It was becoming even more 548 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 4: of a digital goal. Not just my some of my 549 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,680 Speaker 4: dear client friends and their big PA portfolios, but some 550 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 4: institutionalization was taking place because of what they believed Trump 551 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 4: would bring to the table. But then my answer to 552 00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:00,160 Speaker 4: Tracy on credibility on time, there's the reason why all 553 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 4: these you know, if he did these China Canada tariffs 554 00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 4: on Gen twenty, we would probably want to trade first 555 00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,640 Speaker 4: at one or two euro dollar. Now we're trading at 556 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 4: one fifteen because crediblity is gone. Yeah, a little bit 557 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,320 Speaker 4: similar now with the whole bitcoin situation, back to the 558 00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 4: back of the class. If you're a big believer on 559 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 4: a big bounce in the market, maybe you would you know, 560 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,120 Speaker 4: trade it in your own portfolio, etcetera, et cetera. But 561 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 4: some of the funds getting by and seutside getting more 562 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 4: serious about it as an asset in an institution site. 563 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 4: I think that took a hit this other team that 564 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 4: I want to bring up so that I don't regret 565 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 4: tax cuts. So you know that again talking about a 566 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,920 Speaker 4: big veteran, you know, one of us big marketplayer best. 567 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 4: And there's the reason why he's saying, literally saying to 568 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 4: your colleague Hordern, this whole year has been tariff start 569 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,120 Speaker 4: of tariffs. We need to talk, you know, it's all. 570 00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 4: We need to talk tax cut, tax cut, the regulation, 571 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 4: the reregulation. Well you're the man, you're going to change 572 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 4: the errative to that. So he's claiming that they're moving 573 00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 4: fast on that, like in Tromp one point zero. That's 574 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 4: going to be important. Whether it's going to be just 575 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 4: the extension of the existing tax cuts or will he 576 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 4: beyond tips and stuff? Will he bring something new to 577 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,479 Speaker 4: the table. We can discuss whether that's good or not, 578 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 4: whether this thing, this economy is morphisic cleansing. But yes, 579 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 4: if they beyond words, if they can succeed on changing 580 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 4: the narrative from tariff madness to more the how tax 581 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 4: cut deregulation, how fast it is going passing, can it 582 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 4: be done before July fourth, et cetera. And that's going 583 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 4: to help the very not the not well, not what 584 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 4: the screens are telling you now, but that would help 585 00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 4: a SMP and. 586 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 3: NASA even there though we're getting confused mixed signals. 587 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: Right. 588 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 3: We had a story overnight where the Trump administration was 589 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,080 Speaker 3: said to be looking at tax hikes for people earning 590 00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 3: more than a million dollars a year. So I can 591 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 3: see why people have forgotten like that part of the narrative, 592 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 3: because it is a little bit confused. 593 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,840 Speaker 4: If you look for Trump two point zero, it has 594 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 4: been for the economy team, it has been a stumbling stock, 595 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 4: stumbling start, Like they. 596 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,960 Speaker 3: Haven't a stumbling start and a stumbling stock exactly. 597 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 4: It hasn't be on the statement, It hasn't been a 598 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:02,720 Speaker 4: Michael Phelps stuck. 599 00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 2: It was InterMine. Thank you so much for coming on 600 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 2: odd looks. This is like the perfect moment, perfect guest. 601 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 2: Really appreciate it. 602 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 3: Thank thanks so much. 603 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:11,160 Speaker 4: That was fun. 604 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 2: It was a lot of fun. That was a fun conversation. 605 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 2: I like the sort of the three the three scenarios 606 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 2: that he laid out. And you know, I don't like 607 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: everyone else. You know, I changed my view now that 608 00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 2: anyone should ever listen to my view because I've never 609 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 2: gotten anything right. But whatever I feel like usually like 610 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,320 Speaker 2: changes by the hour at this point, Yeah. 611 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 3: Which I think is fair, right, Like, that's the reasonable 612 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 3: response to the flood of news headlines that we're getting. 613 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,600 Speaker 3: I should I feel like we should just add odd 614 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,479 Speaker 3: lots does not provide any trading again US right, this 615 00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:00,080 Speaker 3: is our disclaimer. But that said, I do like one 616 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 3: thing that seems certain to me really is the higher 617 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 3: term premium in the treasury market and the idea of 618 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 3: a steepener also because like I think the US is 619 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 3: just gonna have to issue like even more short term 620 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,359 Speaker 3: over time for a variety of reasons, one of which 621 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,720 Speaker 3: could be foreign investors stepping away from the treasury market 622 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 3: more than they have already been doing. So that's one 623 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,319 Speaker 3: to watch. And then just on the Bitcoin point that 624 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,279 Speaker 3: you were making, I've been thinking about this too over 625 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,360 Speaker 3: the past couple of weeks, Like I have been eagerly 626 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,879 Speaker 3: waiting to see what the next big bitcoin talking point is, 627 00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 3: because this is one of the one of the real 628 00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 3: strengths of bitcoin is it always comes up with a 629 00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,359 Speaker 3: new narrative, right and like, well. 630 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 2: It can't be Yeah, it's kind of people have called 631 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 2: it gold. 632 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,240 Speaker 3: Kind of digital goal, and it's like. 633 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 2: People should look at the chart. It's not trading as 634 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 2: bad and as nazdak like as it had been fun yeah, 635 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,880 Speaker 2: which makes me wonder if it's a little bit acclaring 636 00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:57,760 Speaker 2: to some of those save had properties people supposedly claim. 637 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:01,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, but it needs something like pithy for Trump tariff world, 638 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 3: and we're still waiting for that. But I'm sure there 639 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,120 Speaker 3: are people working on it right now. 640 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 4: You Know. 641 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,240 Speaker 2: The other thing is when I think about all of these, 642 00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 2: so there's two things that I think about. One is 643 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 2: there is this scenario that I don't think gets talked 644 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,120 Speaker 2: about as much, which is like the global depression trade 645 00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,400 Speaker 2: or the global recession trade, right, And so the idea 646 00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 2: that it's so disruptive and the US is so important 647 00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 2: that the idea of it just being like a sort 648 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 2: of US recession, which many people obviously think, it actually 649 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 2: not that it actually is something. 650 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,080 Speaker 3: Which seems like a realistic possibility. 651 00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,840 Speaker 2: And then the other thing is that like when everything 652 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 2: looks sort of bleak and there really isn't much cutting 653 00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:45,400 Speaker 2: edge tech in Europe and US is maybe shooting itself 654 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,040 Speaker 2: in the foot, and there are limits to the degree 655 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 2: to which anyone can really invest in China. It's not 656 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 2: surprising that gold is now perceived like that's the one thing, right, 657 00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 2: Like the one thing that will be there for you 658 00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:03,360 Speaker 2: is if you have a yellow, shiny metal in your safe, 659 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,080 Speaker 2: and it's not surprising that that's railing. 660 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,359 Speaker 3: Plus gold is just shiny as you really nice, right, Yeah, 661 00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 3: it has that physical attraction, that sense of comfort in 662 00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,279 Speaker 3: times of uncertain Well, you know. 663 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,520 Speaker 2: We went to the jewelry the jewelry store, I guess 664 00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,600 Speaker 2: that was like February or March or whatever, and I 665 00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,920 Speaker 2: would try it on that seventy five thousand dollars gold necklace, and. 666 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 4: I regret I get really dumb not. 667 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 2: Buying it because a bunch of people told told me 668 00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,920 Speaker 2: it look good on me. But be more importantly, that'd 669 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,120 Speaker 2: be like an eighty five thousand dollars gold necklace today. 670 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,759 Speaker 3: Joe, you know we're not that far from one of 671 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,000 Speaker 3: London's jewelry districts. We can we can go shopping right 672 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:38,560 Speaker 3: after this. It's about ten minutes away. 673 00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,360 Speaker 2: I'm really underweight gold, Tracy, so I might actually I. 674 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:42,239 Speaker 4: Might have to do that. 675 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 3: All right, shall we leave it there? 676 00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 4: Let's leave it there. 677 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. 678 00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,520 Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 679 00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:52,400 Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 680 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 2: Get more of Ozone's thoughts, check out his LinkedIn ozon 681 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 2: Tarman check him out there. Follow our producer's Carmen Rodriguez 682 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:03,560 Speaker 2: at Carmel Erman, Dashel Bennett at Dashbot and Kelbrooks and Keilbrooks. 683 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:07,360 Speaker 2: Thank you to our London producer Moses Ondam More Oddlovs 684 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,160 Speaker 2: Coontent Go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd lots, where 685 00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,279 Speaker 2: we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes, 686 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,560 Speaker 2: and you can chout about all of these topics twenty 687 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 2: four to seven in our discord discord dot gg slash 688 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 2: odd Lots. 689 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 3: And if you enjoy odd Lots, if you like it 690 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,800 Speaker 3: when we talk about trading the end of US exceptionalism, 691 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,320 Speaker 3: then please leave us a positive review on your favorite 692 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,920 Speaker 3: podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, 693 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,080 Speaker 3: you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. 694 00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 3: All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel 695 00:37:36,120 --> 00:38:00,320 Speaker 3: on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. 696 00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 4: Eight