Speaker 1: Single best idea, and today was an extraordinary day on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's surveillance. Our team just did a great job of
Speaker 1: eclectic guess We finished strong with the elliot Ackerman in
Speaker 1: celebration of his new book twenty fifty four with James Travetis.
Speaker 1: I'll have a lot more to say about that. I'm
Speaker 1: thinking in April or may I actually try to read
Speaker 1: the books that I'm big on, and I'll have to
Speaker 1: wait through twenty fifty four about the tensions that are
Speaker 1: military faces. But today was wonderfully eclectic in equities. Tony
Speaker 1: Dwyer was with us with a broad view of the
Speaker 1: linkage of recession and those fears to tepid participation inequities.
Speaker 1: Away from mag seven there were all sorts of others,
Speaker 1: but what we really had was dueling quants. I can't
Speaker 1: say enough. I'm not going to go into it here
Speaker 1: because we're trying to keep this podcast tight, but I
Speaker 1: can't say enough about the development of modern quantitative academics,
Speaker 1: which came out of Imperial College and London with Paul Wilmot,
Speaker 1: with all sorts of workout of other institutions, including foundational
Speaker 1: work at Princeton and particularly Andrew Lowe l Andrew low
Speaker 1: Up at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. We are thrilled to
Speaker 1: bring you today Katherine Kaminski at Alpha Simplex out of
Speaker 1: the MIT combine, but first Amy Wu Silverman of RBC,
Speaker 1: out of the Princeton QUANDT combine. These people are wicked smart.
Speaker 1: They're the ones that got the A in your math class.
Speaker 1: And the answer is they really try to devolve the
Speaker 1: complexities of the Greek letters and what are called cross
Speaker 1: moments down to a mere mortal conversation like you can
Speaker 1: digest on Bloomberg's surveillance. We digressed with Amy Wu Silverman,
Speaker 1: and of course we looked at her cross moments and bitcoin.
Speaker 2: The really interesting thing I would say about bitcoin, because
Speaker 2: you know, you can't dabble in volatility without dabbling and
Speaker 2: crypto a little is the This has historically been a
Speaker 2: risk acid correlation that's actually been positive, even though it's
Speaker 2: been made out not to be. However, we are actually
Speaker 2: seeing that correlation decline. So if you look three years ago,
Speaker 2: the correlation between just the simple equity market and bitcoin
Speaker 2: was fairly positive and it is still positive, to be clear,
Speaker 2: but it's actually come in a lot and so it
Speaker 2: may actually begin to be behaving in the inflation hedge
Speaker 2: slash equity hedge that it was purported to be in
Speaker 2: the beginning.
Speaker 1: Amy was Silverman there with RBC on bitcoin, and of
Speaker 1: course we did talk to her about the broader equity
Speaker 1: market and some of the oddities out there, particularly the
Speaker 1: mass speculation and options in option day trading. I guess
Speaker 1: it's speculation, or maybe it's almost like the roulette wheel
Speaker 1: at a casino. Katie Kaminski is with Alpha Simplex, and
Speaker 1: the heart and soul of what they do, which I'm
Speaker 1: familiar with, is trend following. This is a cottage industry
Speaker 1: which goes back a solid forty years, much of it
Speaker 1: out of the greater New York City area. And the
Speaker 1: idea here is not so much to catch the knife
Speaker 1: in the dark. The idea here is not to get
Speaker 1: right on the bottom of the trend going up or
Speaker 1: the top of the trend going down, but rather just
Speaker 1: to find the trend and monitor it as you invest,
Speaker 1: and not day trading, but invest out weeks, quarters, in months.
Speaker 1: Katie commencing, of course, looking at this extraordinary bull market
Speaker 1: here she is on the quants, the cross moments of
Speaker 1: our equity market.
Speaker 3: When you look right now at where equities have moved,
Speaker 3: the turning point was in October and it's been I mean,
Speaker 3: look at S and P. It's up almost twenty five
Speaker 3: percent since October, so pretty much over any window where
Speaker 3: you measure the strength of the trend, you're seeing a
Speaker 3: pretty strong signal that we're going straight to the moon.
Speaker 3: And so I think that's where, you know, I'm surprised
Speaker 3: at how incredibly resilient this market has been. If you
Speaker 3: told me in January that February is going to be
Speaker 3: as amazing as it was, I would have not believe you.
Speaker 1: Katiekiminski there, and I really want to talk with Alpha Simplex,
Speaker 1: and I really want to talk for a moment here
Speaker 1: about the underlying here in the Bloomberg terminal. All of
Speaker 1: this came out of really a bunch of really really
Speaker 1: smart people working off Sun Microsystems Spark stations way in
Speaker 1: the back. It wasn't PCs and decad Wang and you
Speaker 1: know what Microsoft did with Intel and all that. It
Speaker 1: was more sophisticated right from the get go. And it
Speaker 1: involves Sun microsystem I can't remember the name midframe computers
Speaker 1: I think is what they were called, but they did
Speaker 1: it off Spark station. What Mike Bloomberg and Tom Sekunda
Speaker 1: did to bring some of those mathematical dynamics over to
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal was at the time, and I remember
Speaker 1: this clearly nothing short of an act of God. They
Speaker 1: basically took high powered Sun Microsystem's work and brought over
Speaker 1: those chart dynamics so you could establish a trend for
Speaker 1: those of you that have a Bloomberg. For those of
Speaker 1: you that want to get a Bloomberg, one of the
Speaker 1: major major reasons is what's called stochastic analysis, but far
Speaker 1: far more importantly, and you know I'm on this. I
Speaker 1: think if Chris Verona's strateigue, it's the same way we
Speaker 1: are into trend based following. And you do that with
Speaker 1: moving averages. You do that with all sorts of other
Speaker 1: technical studies, much of them founded by a guy named
Speaker 1: Wells Wilder and brought forward in the quantitative finance space
Speaker 1: of people at Princeton and people at MIT like Amy
Speaker 1: wou Silverman and Katie Kaminski. You can do all that
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg. Check it out. This is single best idea,
Speaker 1: And don't forget you can see us on Apple car Play.
Speaker 1: It's really working out the Bloomberg Business app. It's free,
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Speaker 1: and we were thrilled by the numbers. I actually got
Speaker 1: brief done it this morning. I was like, really, sixty
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Speaker 1: and on YouTube. We're thrilled by the international coverage and
Speaker 1: of course across the nation on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Podcasts
Speaker 1: and you'll find us there. Seven to ten for Wall
Speaker 1: Street Time again, Bloomberg Surveillance, an Apple CarPlay, and on
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