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Speaker 2: So honored Ted Wade Lee with us here in an
Speaker 2: historic week.
Speaker 3: Always in diplomacy.
Speaker 2: She is a black rock and a wonderful think of
Speaker 2: their chief investment strategist Wally. This is not Nixon to China.
Speaker 2: This is not Henry Kissinger's secretly hanging out of the
Speaker 2: Piece hotel in Shanghai to get things started. If this
Speaker 2: is not Nixon to China, what is this visit?
Speaker 4: Well, the summit points to a push to preserve near
Speaker 4: to stability. There are incentive on both sides to manage
Speaker 4: tension given the deep supply disruption in the Middle East
Speaker 4: and also the interconnectedness in global trade right and of
Speaker 4: course technology remains at the center of the strategic competition.
Speaker 4: You know, with what's happening in the China AI models.
Speaker 4: They are catching up in terms of performance of those
Speaker 4: in the US, and they are also competing on cost
Speaker 4: and efficiency. The energy system, power system in China is
Speaker 4: large and less constraint, so lots going on, and I
Speaker 4: think some of that is reflected in markets as well well.
Speaker 5: Ye, we just had the S and P just have
Speaker 5: its best April Vois twenty twenty, and the backdrop is
Speaker 5: kind of strong earnings here. What do you make of
Speaker 5: this market, this earning cycle we're seeing and these valuations.
Speaker 4: Well, valuations look more attractive compared to this time last
Speaker 4: year because of the very strong earnings that have been
Speaker 4: coming through. And I would say that the backdrop is
Speaker 4: a is an interesting backdrop, right, because the strait of
Speaker 4: Hormus is still closed in terms of the accrude damage.
Speaker 4: We're talking about zero point five to global GDP this
Speaker 4: year and pushing up inflation higher as well. That also
Speaker 4: have been pushing up rates. But when it comes to
Speaker 4: valuing risk assets, it's a discounting.
Speaker 6: Future cash flow.
Speaker 4: So even though R is going higher, if g is
Speaker 4: going faster and higher, still we can still have a
Speaker 4: rosy market, which is what we have had so far.
Speaker 4: But it's very concentrated up until now. In tech, right
Speaker 4: you look at attach those large type earnings in terms
Speaker 4: of delivery for this quarter, it's tracking three times higher
Speaker 4: versus expectation at the beginning of the quarter. So the
Speaker 4: AI theme is off setting, in fact more than offsetting
Speaker 4: in risk market the disruption from the Middle East.
Speaker 5: So we did have wayley it's certainly in the US
Speaker 5: broader market. It's kind of a rotation late last year
Speaker 5: maybe out of some of those tech names into some
Speaker 5: more evaluation.
Speaker 6: Areas.
Speaker 5: Small and mid cap stocks even had some good performance.
Speaker 5: Was that just a short term trade and now we're
Speaker 5: back to kind of where we've been for many years,
Speaker 5: which is a tech driven, AI driven marketplace.
Speaker 4: Well, we saw a bit of rotation, and I think
Speaker 4: that came also of the back of worries about the
Speaker 4: unprecedented kopex spent. If you look at the speed of
Speaker 4: copex spent by these hyperscalers word tracking actually even faster
Speaker 4: than Industrial Revolution, right, so you look at the contribution
Speaker 4: of AI related spent to GDP, I mean, it's all
Speaker 4: AI right now for Q one, So they would worry
Speaker 4: about the regional investments for this kopex spent, which is
Speaker 4: why tech was taking a back seat and underperforming and
Speaker 4: the rest of the market were catching up. But if
Speaker 4: you look at kind of revenue ramp I'm not just
Speaker 4: talking about the earnings of big tech companies that have reported,
Speaker 4: but also the model builders. You look at Anthropic, they're
Speaker 4: arr revenue ramp at the end of last year was
Speaker 4: nine billion, and you know in March got to thirty
Speaker 4: billion dollars a year and now tracking forty two forty
Speaker 4: four billion.
Speaker 6: Dollars a year.
Speaker 4: So this speed of revenue ramp is also unprecedented one hundred.
Speaker 4: That's that's why I'm feeling a bit more comfortable.
Speaker 2: Really, you're prodigious mathematics and also a sense of history.
Speaker 2: Do you have an analog to this tech dominant moment?
Speaker 2: We're all living in the halves of tech and the
Speaker 2: have nots. Is there a wayly analog besides maybe you
Speaker 2: brush against ninety ninety two thousand and one, or do
Speaker 2: you go back further?
Speaker 4: I would say that this is not quite ninety nine
Speaker 4: in two thousand, because the revenues are coming through and
Speaker 4: earnings are coming through. Evaluations are not as stretched as
Speaker 4: things were looking back then. And I would also say
Speaker 4: that if history is anything to go by, it would
Speaker 4: be too early to call who are the automate winners
Speaker 4: versus the automate losers of the AI transformation. In fact,
Speaker 4: the winners and losers may not even be in public
Speaker 4: market just ye it right. And I say that because
Speaker 4: if you think about kind of the application of AI
Speaker 4: in other sectors, I think it's still unclear if it
Speaker 4: is the provider of compute and model on the one hand,
Speaker 4: that are going to win, or if it is the
Speaker 4: provider of data IP and patterns that are going to win.
Speaker 4: So it's still too early to say, even though market
Speaker 4: narratives swing wildly, as you know.
Speaker 2: Really, thank you for the brief for the black Rock
Speaker 2: this morning. Greatly, greatly appreciate that. Stay with us. More
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Speaker 3: YouTube in studio.
Speaker 2: Today, one of our leaders in thinking about the messes
Speaker 2: we are in Leslie vin Ja Murray, joins as President's
Speaker 2: CEO of Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Speaker 3: You wrote an intelligent.
Speaker 2: Blurb for a book that is absolutely spectacular. Iran's Grand
Speaker 2: Strategy Valley Nasa. You're going to hear a lot about
Speaker 2: this book from me, folks. Iiken Green's book on currencies,
Speaker 2: my book of the summer, but Vali NASA's book is
Speaker 2: outstanding as well. What's the number one thing in that
Speaker 2: book that we misunderstand about Iran?
Speaker 7: I mean, I think that you know, the eyes on
Speaker 7: the prize is that you know, you've got to kind
Speaker 7: true that's thinking very strategically about its future. And I
Speaker 7: think this is you know, if you if you look
Speaker 7: at Valley Nassar's analysis of the of the current conflict,
Speaker 7: you know, it's very clear Iran's got its eyes on
Speaker 7: the prize. It's in a winning position, It's used its
Speaker 7: leverage very effectively. What we thought was very asymmetric has
Speaker 7: turned to feel less asymmetric than you might think. And
Speaker 7: we're seeing that. And you know, as those as President
Speaker 7: Trump sort of throws up his hands and says that
Speaker 7: the deal's not good enough or he doesn't like what
Speaker 7: they what they wish to have, Iran looking unfortunately quite powerful,
Speaker 7: and the US, as President Trump goes to China looking
Speaker 7: not very strong.
Speaker 5: What do you think the best the US can get
Speaker 5: out of any type of negotiated piece with Iran is
Speaker 5: at this point.
Speaker 7: You know, I think that the real concern is that
Speaker 7: that's straight, that leverage that Iran has is going to
Speaker 7: continue to hover over President Trump's head over all of US.
Speaker 7: I guess the best deal would be to, you know,
Speaker 7: sort of maybe not have a deal, but to get
Speaker 7: some sort of ongoing cease fire and some sort of
Speaker 7: opening of that straight. Kick the can down the road
Speaker 7: on negotiating a deal when it comes to the nuclear issue,
Speaker 7: because that's not going to be resolved anytime soon. But
Speaker 7: if you know, if he could perhaps offer to lip
Speaker 7: some sanctions tough thing to do, unblock some assets for
Speaker 7: in exchange for a deal in which you know this
Speaker 7: UK French led proposal to help open the straight, keep
Speaker 7: the straight open. You know, I think for the US
Speaker 7: president the number one thing is really the straight, not
Speaker 7: the nuclear issue, which you know, let's be fair, it
Speaker 7: hadn't been a big issue in reality leading up was open.
Speaker 7: The straight was open ten weeks ago. Decades it has
Speaker 7: now the game has fundamentally changed in the straight of Hormus.
Speaker 2: Can can I ask a dumb question. We put a
Speaker 2: man on the moon, why are we having trouble with this.
Speaker 8: What is the where we have an adversaries?
Speaker 6: What is it?
Speaker 3: I mean, I feel like Robert D. Kaplan.
Speaker 2: What's the geographical constraint for us applying what we need
Speaker 2: to do to open the straight other than our will?
Speaker 7: Yeah, look, they're there, We're very far away. It's a
Speaker 7: tiny little passage way. They have all the will in
Speaker 7: the world. It's their one source of leverage.
Speaker 3: Didn't we know this?
Speaker 7: Of course we did. Our foreign policy experts have gamed
Speaker 7: this out for a very long time. They were very
Speaker 7: well aware that this was the scenario to be aware of.
Speaker 7: And this US administration has simply not been taking that advice.
Speaker 7: It hasn't been thinking through I think President Trump, I
Speaker 7: mean we know this by now, he thought.
Speaker 6: He could go in. He could you remove the to
Speaker 6: your ships.
Speaker 7: You could create then, you know, the US and to
Speaker 7: be fair and Israel thought they could create the conditions
Speaker 7: that would allow the people of Iran to rise up.
Speaker 7: Clearly a very shallow analysis of this regime. And it's
Speaker 7: you know, it's its embeddedness across the entirety of the country.
Speaker 5: You just have relocated from London. Give us just a
Speaker 5: sense of how our and I can use air quotes here.
Speaker 5: Our allies are traditional allies view the US now simply
Speaker 5: in the context of this Iran venture here.
Speaker 7: I mean, we know it's not good, but you know,
Speaker 7: you can you can separate it out right. Obviously, British
Speaker 7: and European elites are struggling to engage and try to
Speaker 7: diversify away from their dependents on the US because they're
Speaker 7: i think so ongoing shock but realization that the US
Speaker 7: under this leadership and even going forward, isn't coming back.
Speaker 8: But look at the people.
Speaker 7: Sixty eight percent of Brits pold last month thought that
Speaker 7: the US was, you know, doing doing nothing good for
Speaker 7: the world. To put it in a nutshell, you go pulling.
Speaker 7: I mean that's extraordinarily high. It was up eleven percent
Speaker 7: month from the month previously. So our soft power, our
Speaker 7: public diplomacy. But the elites, right, the foreign policy elites
Speaker 7: and leaders in our allied countries in Europe are really
Speaker 7: trying to find ways to not have to work with
Speaker 7: US and to not be dependent on us. But what
Speaker 7: they are doing, they're meeting today the UK and the
Speaker 7: French and forty other nations to try and come up
Speaker 7: with a proposal so that if there is a deal,
Speaker 7: they can enforce, help to enforce, you know, and and
Speaker 7: ensure an opening of that straight So that is you know,
Speaker 7: that's a win.
Speaker 6: If it happens, it's going.
Speaker 3: To be very spending Leslie Vnja Murray.
Speaker 2: Where this is Chicago Council and Global Affairs with all
Speaker 2: our work in England, I have to ask, I've been
Speaker 2: bringing this up just to get our guests to get
Speaker 2: the room ras.
Speaker 3: S up as well. Are we going to have Prime
Speaker 3: Minister Farage?
Speaker 7: I mean, look, it was not it's not been a
Speaker 7: good few days for the Labor Party. Cure Starmer is
Speaker 7: you know.
Speaker 2: Should thread and should step aside.
Speaker 7: Politics is never about a single choice. It's always about
Speaker 7: an alternative. And this is the main reason that he's
Speaker 7: still there, that that you know, there hasn't been an
Speaker 7: effective leadership challenge yet you know, wait and see what
Speaker 7: happens today and tomorrow. Is that there's there's not a
Speaker 7: clear alternative. Andy Burnham's not got to you know, people
Speaker 7: talk about him. He's not got a seat in Parliament. No,
Speaker 7: and folks don't want to see you know, they don't
Speaker 7: want to seeatives.
Speaker 3: So you didn't answer. This is a typical.
Speaker 7: I don't think so. And remember the general elections in
Speaker 7: the UK are still several years out. This is not
Speaker 7: a short term thing. And you know, you know the
Speaker 7: phrase Tom a week is a long time in politics.
Speaker 7: The question is how long we're going to have Stormer?
Speaker 7: I don't think this Prime Minister sadly gets you know,
Speaker 7: stays in position very much longer. And what does the
Speaker 7: next person do?
Speaker 2: Can they?
Speaker 7: Can they meet the challenge of you know that what
Speaker 7: we saw in the local elections were you know, we're
Speaker 7: not happy people going for the Lib Dems, but especially
Speaker 7: going for Reform and the Green Party. We're not happy,
Speaker 7: but we didn't see a consolidated opposition.
Speaker 2: What's it like is a brit out of Wesleyan University caecut?
Speaker 7: I am, by the way, until citizen now.
Speaker 3: Very dubul Okay, what is it like?
Speaker 2: As Paul mentioned earlier, parachuting into Chicago, White Sox are Cubs.
Speaker 7: Look, you never choose my daughter's white Sox. You know
Speaker 7: my first game was white Sox versus Cubs. The Pope
Speaker 7: is white Sox, and I love the Pope to speak
Speaker 7: at the Chicago Council. But I'll tell you Tom, the
Speaker 7: fascinating thing about Chicago. World class economists and elected representatives,
Speaker 7: deeply concerned about the stability of our international trade order,
Speaker 7: about these tariffs now the bread basket of the world,
Speaker 7: deeply concerned about the impact of the closure of the
Speaker 7: Strait on food, on fertilizer prices, and so, you know,
Speaker 7: many things to watch, but we're all watching US and China.
Speaker 7: This meeting coming up, and whether you know President Trump's
Speaker 7: efforts to lean on g will do anything to get
Speaker 7: that straight.
Speaker 3: Did she did she answer a question?
Speaker 8: Never answer a question.
Speaker 7: The Chicago Council is independent and partisan, you know, sport based.
Speaker 7: So never take a sign and.
Speaker 3: One of these to see you in the studio.
Speaker 2: Leslie Vengerburi or President's CEO at Chicago Council of Global Affairs.
Speaker 3: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
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Speaker 3: He's a Pinata on Wall Street. He's also been right.
Speaker 2: Dan Ives joins US Global head of tech research at
Speaker 2: Webbush Securities. Daniel, I lifted your call on Apple. I
Speaker 2: believe it was on Friday. I saw that tweet as
Speaker 2: you listed it went through compliance.
Speaker 3: The tweet.
Speaker 2: Is well state to us how the persistency has developed
Speaker 2: at Apple, the persistency of cash flow that allows for
Speaker 2: share buybacks. Where in their machinery does that come from.
Speaker 9: I mean, look, to some extent, I don't think there's
Speaker 9: been a tech company, or maybe a company in the
Speaker 9: world that's don a better job from a cask flow
Speaker 9: capito allocation perspective than Apple. Now you know, if you
Speaker 9: look at it, I think the criticism would be cap
Speaker 9: backs and what they've done from an AI perspective. And
Speaker 9: tom My whole point is they are now going to
Speaker 9: be in the winner circle when it comes to ascension, monetizing,
Speaker 9: the consumer AI revolution that all starts to WWDC when
Speaker 9: they unvol their strategy.
Speaker 2: Okay, they're going to unveil their strategy, but everything sudden.
Speaker 2: It's our strategy is to avoid the capex build up
Speaker 2: that we've seen in AI. How smart are they that
Speaker 2: they're not forced to do a euro Canadian yen debt
Speaker 2: issuance like Google.
Speaker 9: Look they're so because right now they're in a position
Speaker 9: of strength, and I think when you look at Turnus
Speaker 9: now as CEO, I think the big focus is going
Speaker 9: to be doubling down services, but it's going to be
Speaker 9: about unleashing the AI strategy because it's my view, it's
Speaker 9: a trillion dollars of incremental value when it's all said done,
Speaker 9: seventy five hundred dollars per share.
Speaker 6: As they mindize AI, that.
Speaker 9: Could be fifteen billion per year annually services and it
Speaker 9: starts off what's going to be probably an AI enabled
Speaker 9: phone as we go into next year or two.
Speaker 5: Dan, I think I'm like the rest of the market.
Speaker 5: I don't know what Apple's AI strategy is. What do
Speaker 5: you think it is?
Speaker 9: I mean, Paul, in my view, and you have one
Speaker 9: point five billion iPhones and two point five billion iOS devices.
Speaker 9: It's now laying out what essentially will be a subscription service.
Speaker 6: I mean, you're going to be able to have models.
Speaker 9: Gemini will be the first one that they'll talk about WWDC,
Speaker 9: You'll have Claude, You'll have you know, Chat, GPT. It's
Speaker 9: going to really become the foundation for consumers. You'll have
Speaker 9: the models in there. The apps are going to get developed,
Speaker 9: you know, from an AI perspective, over the next.
Speaker 6: Year, they're going to get a slice of the pie.
Speaker 6: I mean that's that's really the key.
Speaker 9: I mean the services perspective, they'll be the storage, they'll
Speaker 9: be the consumer foundation for AI. That's twenty percent of
Speaker 9: consumers in the world will access AI through an Apple device.
Speaker 5: Is that what we're going to see at the developer
Speaker 5: conference or is this something that is going to be
Speaker 5: an announced or develop over time.
Speaker 6: Well, I think it starts off.
Speaker 9: I mean, finally, all the Apple intelligence features that they'll
Speaker 9: actually veil, JEM and I will be the first in
Speaker 9: terms of what we talk about as the big partnership.
Speaker 6: And it's all gonna plug in.
Speaker 9: When you think about the next version of iOS, I mean,
Speaker 9: this is really gonna plug in to the Apple ecosystem.
Speaker 9: Everything we've been waiting for the last two years is
Speaker 9: now here. The enterprise AI revolution has been here, the
Speaker 9: consumer hasn't been and now it starts.
Speaker 5: So will this be you know, chat ept Claude, whomever
Speaker 5: it is saying Apple saying hey, if you want to
Speaker 5: be on my system, I'm going to take a cut
Speaker 5: of any subscription revenue.
Speaker 8: Is at the model.
Speaker 9: Well, I think at first that's not gonna be it, right,
Speaker 9: but eventually the storage.
Speaker 6: The thing about the amount of storage, that's ultimately going
Speaker 6: to mean the where's that's going to go through. It's
Speaker 6: going to go through the cloud.
Speaker 9: It's gonna you're gonna see in Essentially, apps develop their
Speaker 9: AI enabled on the app store, Apple gets a peace.
Speaker 9: So what starts to happen is as more consumers around
Speaker 9: the world world start to use AI in everyday setting,
Speaker 9: it's going to happen through an Apple device, and that
Speaker 9: is how they're going to monetize on AI.
Speaker 5: So is this does this suggest that they will, you know,
Speaker 5: unlikely make the types of large language model investments and
Speaker 5: data center investments that we've seen some other technology companies.
Speaker 8: That is not going to be their model. They're going
Speaker 8: to do an asset light model.
Speaker 9: And it's an asset lives not because they don't need
Speaker 9: to do it, because they have the install based they're
Speaker 9: not a hyperscaleur right, I mean, they're not spending that
Speaker 9: type of hours and this some extent.
Speaker 6: By them not spending like that, they now are in a.
Speaker 9: Position of strength to finally execute on the strategy. And
Speaker 9: that's why I think the baton's getting handed to turn
Speaker 9: is at this time, especially you know as you you
Speaker 9: basically have the surprise upgrade cycle that's helped them this year.
Speaker 3: How does this end?
Speaker 2: I mean it denies as we stagger through this, I
Speaker 2: mean the narrowness here, there's no analog to what we've
Speaker 2: seen here. Does this broaden out into other AI stocks?
Speaker 2: Do I have Apple with a fifty multiple? Where are
Speaker 2: we heading.
Speaker 6: It broadens out?
Speaker 4: Look?
Speaker 6: It's my look. We're top of the third.
Speaker 9: Inning, one out man on second in terms of AI game,
Speaker 9: and I think what's going to happen is it's going
Speaker 9: to expand out to software, expand out on the consumer side.
Speaker 9: You've obviously seen the expansion within chips in terms of
Speaker 9: Intel and others. And then I think it's going to
Speaker 9: expand to energy and we talk about you know, other
Speaker 9: sort of subsectors. That's why it's our view we'll be
Speaker 9: talking NAZAC thirty thousand by the end of the.
Speaker 5: Year, Dan, Microsoft's been one of the names that you've
Speaker 5: talked about for a long time.
Speaker 8: What's the current call on MSFT.
Speaker 9: It's the most undervalued large cap technique out there, am
Speaker 9: I view? I mean, just given where my view on prize,
Speaker 9: what's happened on Azure.
Speaker 6: I think in.
Speaker 9: Terms of the execution, it's one where investors, you know,
Speaker 9: have definitely significant dismounted relatively what's happening with Google and others.
Speaker 9: I think the two you'll get Apple and Microsoft, or
Speaker 9: the two table pounders on large cap relative to where
Speaker 9: they're trade today.
Speaker 3: I look Dan at the the AI upheaval.
Speaker 2: And I'll be honest, folks, I really don't follow all
Speaker 2: this executive stuff. Is must gonna win in all this?
Speaker 2: I mean, Dan, do you have eight thousand shares? I
Speaker 2: mean you know the IPO? I mean are you front
Speaker 2: running this? I mean, does Musk win in all this?
Speaker 9: I think in the case, I think ultimately all I think,
Speaker 9: I don't think must wins against all men in open A.
Speaker 9: I mean there could be some wins, but I think
Speaker 9: it scrapes and bruises. Open AI does not get significantly
Speaker 9: transformed because of the case. But thing about SpaceX, think
Speaker 9: about eventually it's going to be a Tesla merger.
Speaker 6: It speaks to it's an arms trace happen right now.
Speaker 9: And Musk Alman, obviously everything happened at Google and Anthropic
Speaker 9: I mean it's it's just starting in terms of whether
Speaker 9: there's playing out and guess what that's bullish for broader attack.
Speaker 5: Hey Dan, do we have any more guidance on the
Speaker 5: potential IPOs of the Anthropic and maybe chat GPT. You know,
Speaker 5: thinking was it is going to be a twenty twenty
Speaker 5: six event.
Speaker 8: What do we know now?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 9: I think by I mean between in the fall mid
Speaker 9: to eight. I think this all happens this year Anthropic
Speaker 9: Open AI and of course space X in the summer.
Speaker 3: Wow.
Speaker 6: And I think that's bullish for tech.
Speaker 9: Some could say it's you know, Oxygen's steal in terms
Speaker 9: of from mag seven. Other I disagree. I think it's
Speaker 9: good to have those public. It's good transparency wise, and
Speaker 9: I think it just showed two more years of a
Speaker 9: tech bull run.
Speaker 2: Jenn, I thank you so much with webbers stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Joining sta mar Brick, Chuddar and joined us from the
Speaker 2: Texas out of Paris as well. It's just a grind
Speaker 2: over in France. I mean there's almost no American equivalent.
Speaker 2: What was it like getting the degree sorbone daffine e
Speaker 2: NSA in all, No, there's no other equivalent in the world.
Speaker 10: I would suggest, well, thank you for this invitation. We
Speaker 10: have a strong tradition with I mean quante and mathematics,
Speaker 10: summon studies. And you mentioned the National School of Statistic
Speaker 10: en say, which is my school? Actually I did you
Speaker 10: mentioned Pari Dufin And I do agree there is no equivalent, mean.
Speaker 3: There's no equivalent.
Speaker 10: We have this strong tradition I mean using I mean mathematics,
Speaker 10: statistic studying, I mean these I mean these fields and
Speaker 10: apply them in these fields to different fields like finance
Speaker 10: and economics. And this is exactly what we are doing
Speaker 10: at the University of barudu Fin and this is what
Speaker 10: we're doing in the National School of Statistic.
Speaker 2: Take the macro view right now in a Texas then
Speaker 2: what is your measurement of risk of the American system
Speaker 2: right now?
Speaker 10: Well, so when we look I mean there are different
Speaker 10: parameters of course we are looking at. But when we
Speaker 10: look at the pure economic cycle in the US in
Speaker 10: our opinion, there is no risk so far. Why we're
Speaker 10: saying that because based on our measures, based on the
Speaker 10: models where we are looking at, and based on the
Speaker 10: market perception also the business cycle. So far, the US
Speaker 10: economy is still strong. So we are in the middle
Speaker 10: of the war. Of course, in the media of East
Speaker 10: there are concerns regarding inflation, concerns regarding the purchasing.
Speaker 3: Power for our households.
Speaker 10: But at the end of the day, one of the
Speaker 10: the must track things were looking at we are seeing
Speaker 10: when it comes to the US, is this economy has
Speaker 10: the capability that we don't have in Europe to surprise
Speaker 10: to the upside. We were talking about I mean a
Speaker 10: couple of years ago, a couple of quarters ago, about
Speaker 10: I mean soft lending of the economy whatever, blah blah blah,
Speaker 10: and what happened then the economy has still continued to surprise.
Speaker 10: So we we are still confident on the fact that
Speaker 10: growth is still there and here's to stay in the US.
Speaker 3: Blah blah blah. I read I learned that dual lingo
Speaker 3: that's French blah blah blah exactly.
Speaker 5: But Brooke talk to us about the impact on Europe
Speaker 5: and the UK from this war because your energy dependence
Speaker 5: is greater than that.
Speaker 3: Of the US.
Speaker 8: So you guys are how are you guys thinking about
Speaker 8: the effects now? What are you seeing and what could
Speaker 8: happen towards the end of they We.
Speaker 10: Have seen already in some effects taking place in Europe
Speaker 10: because if you look at the French growth I mean
Speaker 10: growth is at zero for the first quarter and this
Speaker 10: and this is clearly a man of problem link connected
Speaker 10: to these energy crisis. We do think that, uh, the
Speaker 10: coming quarters could be tough for for the European growth
Speaker 10: and for European countries and with and because we are
Speaker 10: more depending on these energy competited to the US. US
Speaker 10: is the first supply of energy in the world. Uh,
Speaker 10: there is clearly more better, greater sensitivity too of the
Speaker 10: European country to this energy shock. Will be a man
Speaker 10: negatively affected via the private consumption via growth, and these
Speaker 10: clearly will need I mean an additional support from the
Speaker 10: fiscal policy. However, we don't have the room of maneuver
Speaker 10: to a main support or economy via the fiscal policy.
Speaker 2: You're in meetings with institutions in Europe, have they wavered
Speaker 2: under commitment to marginal investment in America.
Speaker 10: Well, I think I mean clearly that there is a
Speaker 10: need I mean for Europe to to to diversify these
Speaker 10: I mean this investment and continue to invest in America
Speaker 10: another too, to be in to lower or I mean
Speaker 10: their energy dependency to the Middle East. And this is
Speaker 10: absolutely fundamentally and crucial to continue to collaborate and to
Speaker 10: expand I mean our investment to the US. So I
Speaker 10: mean at the end of the day, I mean investment
Speaker 10: is crucial and one of the big feature of with
Speaker 10: a big difference between Europe and the US. We are
Speaker 10: not investing a lot and enough sorry, in our economy,
Speaker 10: and we are not investing enough period compared to the
Speaker 10: US corporates.
Speaker 8: How about I mean, AI seems to be a US maybe.
Speaker 5: An Asian story in terms of where the money is
Speaker 5: being invested. It feels like, you know, Europe missed tech
Speaker 5: broadly defined. Are they running the risk of missing AI?
Speaker 10: I think the risk is already I mean as already materialized.
Speaker 3: Okay, when we look at I.
Speaker 10: Mean there is only one or two core companies that
Speaker 10: are involved in these AI stories, which is I mean
Speaker 10: the case I mean when it comes to the US
Speaker 10: or you mentioned emerging Asian country and we have not
Speaker 10: invested in this field. We are late, and we are
Speaker 10: we can say that we are in the middle of
Speaker 10: nowhere when it comes to tech and AI. Seriously, I
Speaker 10: mean when we look, I mean off, when we look
Speaker 10: just at the CAPEX spend spend expectations for this year
Speaker 10: in the US, I mean this is there is no
Speaker 10: comparision between Europe and the US.
Speaker 2: Remember, thank you so much, don't be a stranger, Thank
Speaker 2: you so much for jelling and Robert not showing with
Speaker 2: us in the Texas of Paris.
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