1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin with our 10 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: top story stocks on pause, with all eyes on Jackson 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 2: Hole traders looking for ray cut clues from fed share 12 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 2: Jay Powell when he speaks tomorrow, Muhammad al Erin of 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 2: Queen's College, Cambridge, saying the stakes are high, writing in 14 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: a Bloomberg opinion piece quote, it is critical for Powell 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: to take advantage of the golden opportunity he has this 16 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: Friday to regain control of the economic and policy narrative. 17 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 2: Muhammed joins us now from more Mohammed, good morning. 18 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 3: It's good to see you. 19 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 4: Good morning, John. 20 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for that is for the next ninety minutes, so 21 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: We've got plenty of time to work through these issues. 22 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 2: I went through the piece on Bloomberg Opinion, pretty extensive, 23 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: and a long list of ours for Chairman Power Tomorrow. 24 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 2: I'm going to go through another quote that you wrote. 25 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 2: It is particularly critical that people come away from Wyoming 26 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 2: with a clearer picture of the new equilibrium policy rate 27 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 2: that neither restraints nor fuels economic activity, the path to 28 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 2: that rate, and what a sustainable two percent inflation target 29 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: means in practice. Now that's what you want you expecting 30 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 2: to get it this week. 31 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 3: I hope I'll get one of those three, if not two, John. 32 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 3: It is critical because, as you and Danny have been 33 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 3: discussing this morning, it's not just about price volatility. It 34 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 3: has been narrative volatility. People have moved violently in terms 35 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 3: of their narrative of the economy in terms of what 36 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 3: the FED should do on the basis of high frequency 37 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 3: noisy data, and that tells you that we're lacking anchors 38 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:57,240 Speaker 3: in this economy. We're lacking a robust growth anchor, lacking 39 00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 3: a robust policy forward guidance, and we're lacking a robust 40 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 3: technical anchor. So we should hope for the fair to 41 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 3: start restoring the policy anchor. The way you do that 42 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 3: is you tell people where you see the destination and 43 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 3: how you think you're going to get there. That's what 44 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 3: I think he should do. Whether he does or not, 45 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 3: I'm not sure. Well, let's talk about what complicates it. 46 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 3: The second anchor, forward guidance. You yourself, this is your 47 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 3: language and your pace. You call it an ocean of 48 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 3: genuine uncertainty. How do you provide forward guidance in an 49 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 3: ocean of genuine uncertainty? The same way we do everything 50 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 3: in life is that you say, this is where I 51 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: think it is right now. This is why I think 52 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 3: our star is as opposed to saying I'm not going 53 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:40,920 Speaker 3: to talk about it. This is why I think it is. 54 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: It is dependent on these variables, and I will modify 55 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 3: it if in mid course correction is needed. 56 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 5: Do you think it's important that they discuss how they 57 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 5: view the size of cuts, how they view twenty five 58 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 5: versus fifty basis points? 59 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 3: I think it is important, but the second order importance, 60 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,080 Speaker 3: So the first one is what is the destination look like? 61 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 3: And secondly, how are we going to get there? It 62 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 3: is problematic in my mind that the market is pricing 63 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 3: in so many weight cuts right now, and Danny said 64 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 3: it right this morning, is that there's this contrast between 65 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 3: what the bond market thinks and what the equity market thinks. 66 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 3: And this notion, and I love the way both of 67 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 3: you have framed it of a hard landing policy response 68 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: to achieve a soft landing that has got to be 69 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,160 Speaker 3: reconciled one way or the other. So I think the 70 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 3: problem the market is overdoing it. I don't think we're 71 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: going to get two hundred basis points of cuts in 72 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 3: twelve months. I don't think we're gonna get a hundred 73 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 3: basis point of cuts this year. I think we're going 74 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 3: to get seventy five and one hundred and fifteen total. 75 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 3: But the market is going to have to adjust at 76 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 3: some point. 77 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 5: A few people looked at the minutes that WILL released yesterday, 78 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 5: and so the fact that several of them discussed cutting 79 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 5: in July, maybe is them implicitly realizing that they are 80 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 5: behind and that they need to be more. Did you 81 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 5: come away with that from with the same idea. 82 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 3: So when I read the notion that several several, not 83 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 3: some several thought that in July cut was plaus and 84 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 3: I thought to myself, what about the press conference? What 85 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 3: happened in the press conference? Why didn't we hear that? 86 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 3: And then when I heard both of you discuss the 87 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 3: fact that a lot of people are discussing is are 88 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,160 Speaker 3: the minutes massage in some way after the meeting to 89 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 3: reflect what has happened, since we won't know until we 90 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 3: get the transcripts. Okay, but it is interesting that they 91 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 3: put that in the minutes. 92 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 2: Well, there's two options. Either the fedschaed does allows each 93 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 2: job of reflecting consensus in the news conference, or they 94 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 2: massage the minutes. You're quite critical, more critical than me 95 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: of this federal reserve, poor forecasting, confusing communication, and lapses 96 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: in bank regulation as well across those three things, and 97 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 2: you think that maybe this could have some really large consequences. 98 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 2: There's a quote in this piece that jumped off the 99 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 2: page to me, Mohammad. The FED could further risk, damaging 100 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,239 Speaker 2: its policy effectiveness and reputation, and countries around the world 101 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,480 Speaker 2: would look for more ways to de risk both their 102 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 2: economies and their financial systems from a FED that no 103 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 2: longer responsibly anchors what is still a dollar dominated international 104 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: monetary system. Now that's not something you just write lighthearted 105 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 2: that's not just you sort of writing that down and 106 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,120 Speaker 2: expecting us to ignore it. That's important. Do you think 107 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 2: that's what's a risk here? 108 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 3: I do, and I really worry about it. John, The US, 109 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 3: at the core of the system, has been able to 110 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 3: inform and influence outcomes all over the world, and it 111 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 3: has been able to lead policy coordination where needed. Why 112 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: Because the US seem to be a responsible steward of 113 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 3: the global economy that started to be undermined in two 114 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 3: thousand and eight, it was undermined even more in twenty seventeen, 115 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 3: has been undermined even more in twenty twenty one twenty 116 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 3: two with the transitory inflation mistake. And what we're seeing 117 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 3: is are people starting to hedge away from the dollar. 118 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 3: Look at the price of gold, record after record after record, 119 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 3: Look at central bank buying of gold around the world. 120 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 3: They're divers flying away from the dollar. So I do 121 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 3: worry that unless we gain policy credibility, that you're going 122 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 3: to start seeing the system fragment, not just for geopolitical reasons, 123 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,559 Speaker 3: which we know is fragmenting, but fragmenting because there's less 124 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 3: trust in the way the system is managed. 125 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 2: Well, that's why I actually wanted to ask you when 126 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 2: that exactly where I wanted to go. Is that driven 127 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 2: by one half of day, say, or the other or both? 128 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 2: And how much of it is driven by one and 129 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 2: maybe not the other, because in my mind another paper's minds, 130 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 2: they might be listening to this and saying, well, that's 131 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 2: about sanctions, that's coming from the government, that's coming from 132 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 2: outside of the world of monetary policy. How much of 133 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 2: it is about that versus say, the things we're talking 134 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 2: about right now. 135 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 3: We have never seen the amount of volatilating the two 136 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 3: year that we have seen recently. The two years supposed 137 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 3: to be anchored by the FED forward policy guidance. The 138 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 3: longer end can do all sorts of things, but at 139 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 3: least you know the which the two to five year, 140 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 3: lots and lots of stuff gets fries off that internationally 141 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 3: and it has been a roller coaster. So jaeopolitics has 142 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,600 Speaker 3: a big influence. But what we have to minimize is 143 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 3: giving you another reason for PEP to diversify away from 144 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 3: the system, because they're diversifying not to another system, they're 145 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 3: diversifying to fragmentation. They're diversifying to a system that builds 146 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 3: little pipes around the center and doesn't solve as well 147 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 3: as it should otherwise, and the world will suffer as 148 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 3: a result. 149 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 5: The things you're talking about, they are structural changes that 150 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 5: central banks are undergoing. And I just wonder if Powell 151 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 5: is able to wrestle back control, if government concerned doesn't 152 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,240 Speaker 5: erode it further. Can it be undone or is this 153 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 5: point we're at, has the damage already been done and 154 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 5: you basically can't put the pace back in the tube. 155 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 3: So I think the economic side can be undone. You 156 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 3: can go back, You can put the pace back into 157 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 3: the tube. As you said it, it's a matter of 158 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 3: being somewhat less backward looking and having the courage to 159 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 3: be strategic as well. We are excessively data dependent. In fact, 160 00:07:53,240 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 3: the FED being excessively data but dependent has led the 161 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 3: analyst community to be excessive data dependent. Look at how 162 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: probabilities are recession have moved on high frequency, noisy data 163 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 3: that shouldn't happen, you said earlier, jobless claims has suddenly 164 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 3: become this incredible number. Anybody who has been following that 165 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 3: series for a long time knows it is incredibly noisy, 166 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 3: and yet it can turn markets, and it can turn narratives. 167 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 5: Are you confident the federal change though, I mean the 168 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 5: language that we've heard it still is one of data dependents. 169 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 5: It still is one of looking for the next payrolls 170 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 5: print to try to get an idea of where they 171 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 5: should go. How much confidence do you have that they'll 172 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 5: actually adopt what you're recommending? 173 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 3: And the word confidence is so important because it's in 174 00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 3: every FED narrative the word confidence. My confidence is growing. 175 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 3: I mean they are now willing to shift their focus 176 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 3: on both elements of their mandate. I think a little 177 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 3: bit worried that the market has forgotten about the inflation 178 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 3: part of the mandate and the market is only worried 179 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 3: about the employment part. So I think they're a little 180 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 3: bit worried about that, but they're willing to shift the man. 181 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 3: I think they're going to get that. I think they're 182 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 3: getting more confidence now that inflation is below three percent 183 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 3: on this CPI, and I know that that's not what 184 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:03,719 Speaker 3: they look at, but that's what everybody else looks at. 185 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 3: So I think they're gaining more confidence. So I am, too, 186 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 3: gaining confidence that they're going to be able to get 187 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 3: out of this phase of excessive data dependence that were 188 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 3: caused by the big policy mistaken. 189 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:27,840 Speaker 2: Twenty twenty one, Victoria Fernandez of Crossmark Global Investments joined us. Victoria, 190 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 2: last time we caught up, you were worried about a 191 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 2: slowdown in the second half. Are you seeing evidence of 192 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 2: that or evidence to the country. 193 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 4: Now. 194 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 6: I think we're still looking at signs that are telling 195 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 6: us a slowdown could be coming. I know that the 196 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 6: idea of a recession has really been taken off the 197 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 6: table for most people, but I think a slowdown in 198 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 6: the economy is there. I mean, look, you've got small 199 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 6: caps outperforming large yesterday, but yet forty percent of the 200 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 6: wrestle two thousand hasn't even. 201 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 7: Had a profit. 202 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 6: They haven't reported a profit over the last twelve months. 203 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 6: You've got the difference between the two year and the 204 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,760 Speaker 6: FED funds at extreme levels typically that you only see 205 00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 6: when you're in a recession. You have saving rates coming 206 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 6: down while delinquencies are going up. We know the consumer, 207 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 6: even though they're spending or being very cautious and what 208 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 6: they're spending. 209 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:19,719 Speaker 7: And I think when we look at the. 210 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 6: Labor market and wages and earnings and margins for corporations, 211 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 6: we could see that start to tighten up a little bit, 212 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:27,559 Speaker 6: and I think a good sign. 213 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 7: You were just talking about the housing market. 214 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 6: Mortgage rates are down eighty basis points and we aren't 215 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 6: even seeing a bump in the housing market. We've seen 216 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 6: refies go up applications, but not home buyers. So I 217 00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 6: still think there's some struggling going on in this economy, 218 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 6: and I think we'll continue to see it in the 219 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 6: second half of. 220 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 2: The year, enough of a struggle to validate what's been 221 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 2: priced into Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. 222 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 6: Look, the Fed, in my opinion, is going to go 223 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 6: very slowly. So your last guest talked about two rate 224 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 6: cuts this year. That's where wes mark are as well. 225 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 6: Twenty five in September, twenty five in December. I don't 226 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 6: think they're going to go more than that, which means 227 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 6: we may see a little bit of a repricing in 228 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 6: the bond market. Two years you were just mentioning a 229 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 6: rite back up close to four percent. We could see 230 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 6: yields start to go back up as some of that 231 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 6: is priced out of the market, some of the cuts 232 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 6: people are expecting. I mean, what are they pricing in 233 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 6: now three and a half four cuts. 234 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 7: It's similar to what we saw. 235 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 6: At the beginning of the year when everyone was expecting 236 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 6: five or six, they had to come back and reprice 237 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 6: the market. So in our fixed income portfolios, we've gone 238 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 6: close to neutral duration. 239 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 7: We're not ready to go long yet at this point. 240 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 5: Victoria's a said that goes slow with data that's getting 241 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 5: weaker but not necessarily weak. Is that also consistent with 242 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 5: gold priced twenty five hundred dollars an ounce? 243 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,960 Speaker 6: You know, it's very interesting data because you're seeing this 244 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 6: differentiation coming now between gold and bitcoin, where they had 245 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 6: been going together for quite a long period of time. 246 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 6: So I think people are going to You're seeing the 247 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 6: dollar come down. I know it had a little bit 248 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 6: of a bounce yesterday, but the dollars down pretty significantly. 249 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 6: If the Fed is starting to lower rates, we'll see 250 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 6: that happen more so people going into gold for a 251 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 6: safe haven play. 252 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 7: And we're seeing a lot of gold buying coming out 253 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:15,439 Speaker 7: of Asia as well. 254 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 6: So not surprised gold is moving higher, not surprised we're 255 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 6: seeing the dollar come down. I think that fits with 256 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:26,120 Speaker 6: a story of a FED slowly removing some of the 257 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 6: tightness that's there. I think one of the things I 258 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 6: like to say is the FED is not really being 259 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 6: a commodative over the next few months. 260 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 7: I think they're just going to be less restrictive. 261 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 5: I just wonder what you think the success is in 262 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 5: doing that. As using gold as a hedge. David Rosenberg 263 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 5: at Rosenberg Research Things, he's it's going to go to 264 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 5: three thousand simply because people don't trust bonds as a 265 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 5: hedge right now. They don't trust central bank policy, they 266 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 5: don't trust the guidance. So gold is where you hide out, Victoria. 267 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 5: Gold hasn't had the best track record of being the 268 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 5: place that you can hold out over long periods of time, 269 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 5: So is it now the time? Can now be the 270 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 5: time that you can you can hold on to Gold 271 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 5: is something that protects you instead of something like bonds. 272 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 6: So it hurts my heart a little bit, Danny when 273 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 6: you say people don't like bonds, because I do manage 274 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 6: taxable fixed income here at Crossmark, So I think you 275 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 6: need to have some allocation to bonds in your portfolio. Look, 276 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 6: it's a cash flow component, right, So maybe it's not 277 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 6: a safe haven in the sense that from the time 278 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 6: of purchase to the time of maturity, you don't. 279 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 7: Have market value volatility. 280 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 6: You will but you get a steady cash flow coming 281 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 6: from that. Is it okay to have a little bit 282 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 6: of gold as a hedge in your portfolio. I think 283 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:37,679 Speaker 6: that's fine. Do you do a huge allocation shift to that. 284 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 6: I think that's a little much. I don't think there's 285 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,560 Speaker 6: anything in the economy that's telling us we have to 286 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 6: make that drastic of a move. 287 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 2: There is one thing that you've been saying, though, that 288 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 2: runs contrary to what we've heard from a lot of 289 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: people in fixed income, and I understand they've got something 290 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 2: to sell. So there is sort of a bias in 291 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 2: all of this too. You're still saying that just sit 292 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 2: there and learn cash, earn money on cash, sit there 293 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 2: at the front end, take you five percent, Victoria. Other people, 294 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 2: as you know, are coming on the program, is saying 295 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 2: you've got to lock in what's available at the long 296 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 2: end right now, because that's not going to be there 297 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 2: in several months time. Why's your approach a little bit different? 298 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 6: Well, I think they need to look at it from 299 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,280 Speaker 6: a Barbell approach, Jonathan. I mean, look, yes, you can 300 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 6: get some of that locked in on the short end. 301 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 6: We know the Fed's going to lower rates. We talked 302 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 6: about the difference between the two year and the FED 303 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,239 Speaker 6: funds being quite extreme. 304 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 7: That's going to have to narrow. 305 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,440 Speaker 6: At some point. So do the short end of the curve, 306 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 6: do those yields come down? Yes, so you get in now, 307 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 6: you get a little bit of price appreciation in that 308 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 6: because you will have lower yields going forward, So lock some. 309 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 4: Of that in. 310 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 7: But I agree, go out a little bit on the curve. 311 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 7: Add some of that on the longer end. 312 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 6: If you can still get four four and a half 313 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 6: five percent in quality investment grade we're talking a double 314 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 6: A rated not even having to go into triple B 315 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 6: rated bonds, go ahead and put that in there as well. Again, 316 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 6: it's part of that cash flow story and sets you up, 317 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 6: especially if you're trying to match liabilities with the assets 318 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 6: in your portfolio, and puts you in a good place 319 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 6: the next five to seven years. 320 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 5: Detoria, I've also got to ask you, because I know 321 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 5: you see wages and how it relates to consumption as 322 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 5: one of the canaries in the coal mine for this economy. 323 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 5: Given that, what did you make of some of these 324 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 5: retail earnings we've gotten the success of a target and 325 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 5: the lack of it for someone like Macy's. 326 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 6: It's an interesting kind of bifurcation that we're seeing. Obviously, 327 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 6: Walmart did really well. I think some of the reason 328 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 6: you're seeing a name like Walmart do well is because 329 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 6: they have captured a much. 330 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 7: Larger audience than they used to have. 331 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 6: We know that a lot of high income spenders have 332 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 6: actually moved into Walmart, so they're gaining traction there. 333 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 7: Target was interesting. We know that they're comps. 334 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 6: They have pretty easy comps because they have been underperforming 335 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 6: for quite a long period of time. Glad to see 336 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 6: them coming back. You're seeing better pricing in some of 337 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 6: those elements. I know they said clothing was up, so 338 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 6: that's good, and they also had a big boost from 339 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 6: e commerce, so again different elements that are helping support. 340 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 6: But Macy's been struggling for a while. They are that 341 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 6: middle income consumer that is really having to pull back 342 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 6: on discretionary spending as some of their more non discretionary 343 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 6: items like food continue to move higher. So definitely a 344 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 6: bifurcation that we're seeing in retail. Some of your low 345 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 6: cost providers are gaining share and doing better, while that 346 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 6: middle income consumer store is really starting to struggle. 347 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 7: It does come down to wages. Wages is the driver of. 348 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 6: Consumption, and I think as we see margins start to 349 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 6: compress and earnings start to come down a little bit 350 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 6: in the next six months or so, we can see 351 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 6: wages start to stagnate. 352 00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 7: That's going to hurt the consumer. 353 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 2: Why did you allat us go to a Macy's, Victoria? 354 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 2: How long ago was it? 355 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 7: It's been a while, We'll say. 356 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 6: I've been to Bloomingdale's across the street from you guys, 357 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 6: but Macy's. It has been quite a few years since 358 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 6: I have stepped foot into Macy's. And it's probably why 359 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 6: they're closing a lot of their stores right now. 360 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, Bloomdale so close you can accidentally fall into it 361 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 2: walking down Avenue. 362 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 4: I get it. I get it. 363 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 2: It's convenient, Victoria, Thank you, Victoria Fernandez cross my global investments, 364 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 2: I feel the same. It's local. 365 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 4: Oh. 366 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 2: For the DNC in Chicago, the main event coming this 367 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 2: evening with a keynote addressed from the Vice President Kamala 368 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 2: Harris at the DNC is am Marie AMH. 369 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 4: Kibonic. 370 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 8: Good morning, John, And ahead of that keynote address from 371 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 8: Kamala Harris, where we know the economy has been the 372 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:33,399 Speaker 8: top ish of this election. I'm now joined by the 373 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 8: chairman of the Senate Finance Community, senior Senator from Oregon, 374 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 8: Senator Ron Wyde, and thank you so much for joining. 375 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 4: Me, Thanks for having me so sing. 376 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 8: Your colleague, Senator Mark Warner called next year twenty twenty 377 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 8: five tax armor, Geddon and you've been working already on 378 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 8: tax issues. Where do you see room for compromise in 379 00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 8: twenty twenty five. 380 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: Well, first of all, we showed in twenty twenty four 381 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: we wanted a bipartisan approach. You know, I put together 382 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 1: a build out, a child tax credit and hundreds of 383 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 1: thousands of units of house and help for small business 384 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: and senior Republicans just didn't want to do it. I mean, 385 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 1: the fact was jd Vance wouldn't even show up for work. 386 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 1: So we had a bill that was fully paid for 387 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 1: according to the Joint Committee on Taxation, would have been 388 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: a big shot in the arm for family sixteen million 389 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: kids would have been helped, four million small businesses, and 390 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: Republicans were just day long. 391 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 4: Well. 392 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 8: Jd Vance was campaigning at the time, and even many 393 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 8: Democrats would say this was a show vote. They knew 394 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 8: they didn't have the votes yet Republicans want to wait 395 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 8: till twenty twenty five. So that is why I think 396 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 8: he would say he didn't. 397 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 4: Show up for that. 398 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 1: I understand that if he had been there, if he'd 399 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:37,520 Speaker 1: shown up, we could have gotten this past. 400 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 4: It would have gone to the President. Would have been 401 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 4: a huge shot in the arm to the economy. 402 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: You know, we're talking about interest rates now looks like 403 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: the Fed's going to lower interest rates. This is something 404 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 1: that would really help families, because you got to understand 405 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 1: that working families when they get these kind of kind 406 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 1: of breaks, they go out and buy food and clothing 407 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,600 Speaker 1: and the like. What do the Republicans want to do? 408 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: They want class war on working people. They want to 409 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: hit them with tariffs, and tariffs are taxes on them. 410 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 8: Okay, so let's talk about what colotentially be renegotiated for 411 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 8: next year. We know Republicans will sign on for an 412 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 8: expansion of child tax credit. Jay Vans Trump, I believe 413 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 8: in that. What about the corporate tax? Kamala Harris is 414 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 8: twenty eight percent? Look, do you think that's the opening salvo. 415 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 1: Let's remember that the Republicans consistently in campaigns talk about 416 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 1: things that they are going to say their interest in 417 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: for working people, and then they go out and write 418 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,679 Speaker 1: these bills that are trickled down economics and give most 419 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: of the breaks to the will to do. Now, let's 420 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: talk about where we are on things like corporate taxes. 421 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: I want to make sure that we have a reasonable 422 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: rate that's going to allow us to compete in tough 423 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 1: global markets. We know this is a challenging economy. This 424 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: twenty one percent Donald Trump pulled out of nowhere. Nobody 425 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: had any discussion about that in the Senate Finance Committee. 426 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: And I can tell you a lot of my colleagues 427 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: on both sides of the aisle, including some Republicans, they 428 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,240 Speaker 1: don't think the twenty one percent fits are definition of 429 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: a reasonable rate. 430 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 4: So what do you think is reasonable? 431 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: I think that Western civilization isn't going to end with 432 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris's proposals. We're going to work in the committee 433 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: to get a reasonable rate and one that will keep 434 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 1: our companies competitive. 435 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 8: Okay, So that sounds to me maybe like twenty five percent, 436 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 8: which I've been hearing as something maybe there could be 437 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 8: a negotiation around twenty five percent. 438 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: There was a lot of interest in twenty five percent 439 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: rate tied to increased opportunities to do business in the 440 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 1: United States. 441 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 4: Look at the big pharmaceutical companies. 442 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: They generate a lot of their sales in the United States, 443 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of senior citizens, and then it 444 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 1: go overseas to get a cheap tax break. 445 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 8: Let's talk about American business. Part of Kamala Harris's economic 446 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 8: plan has been this idea about price gouging, going after 447 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 8: these individuals in the corporate world that are hiking up prices, 448 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,320 Speaker 8: and many are viewing that as potentially is this going 449 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 8: to usher in price controls? What is your take on 450 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 8: this issue and can you name a company that is 451 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:03,120 Speaker 8: currently price gouging. 452 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: I'm glad you asked about this because I think the 453 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: Vice President's moving in the right direction. 454 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 4: We believe in markets. 455 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,719 Speaker 1: I'm the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. I believe 456 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: in markets. I believe in marketplace for since that's always 457 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,959 Speaker 1: the best way to go. But when markets are breaking down, 458 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: you need some guardrails, and that is what the Vice 459 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 1: President is talking about. 460 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 4: Now I'm going to be going home. 461 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: We're going to be flying all night to have town 462 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,719 Speaker 1: hall meetings in rural Oregon. You know what folks are 463 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 1: going to ask me about They're going to ask me 464 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:39,159 Speaker 1: about the biggest grocery merger in American history, you know, 465 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: Kroger's and Albertsons. 466 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 4: Do you think it should go through? 467 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: Well, what I've said is, I think we ought to 468 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: kind of take a time out. I've been part of 469 00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 1: the effort with congress Woman Jayapaul to say let's have 470 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: kind of a recall on this decision for a while and. 471 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 4: Think through how to come up with a fair agreement. 472 00:21:57,440 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: But what I can tell you is, when you know 473 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: milk is four dollars a gallon and a lot of 474 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 1: places meet ten dollars a pound, a lot of people 475 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 1: are saying, get us a fair shake. And the concentration 476 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: and consolidation we've seen in these food markets, I think 477 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: is what we got to deal with. 478 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 8: But prices have come down, Walgreen's Target, all these places, 479 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 8: Walmart slashing their prices. They see hiring consumers actually trading 480 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 8: down to some of their softer prices, and that was 481 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 8: welcomed by the White House. Isn't this all caused by inflation, 482 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 8: not corporate greed? 483 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 1: Well, certainly we're coming out of COVID. There are a 484 00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: bunch of factors, but what I can tell you in 485 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: my state, we're losing choices. For example, even for buying medicine. 486 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,439 Speaker 1: You know, we have only a couple of big pharmacies 487 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 1: now they consolidate, and that's anti consumer. I'm a market's 488 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: oriented democrat. I want to come back to that, but 489 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 1: I think when markets aren't going very well, we need 490 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: to have some guard rails and make sure we protect 491 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: the consumer center. 492 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 8: Ron Widen, thank you so much for Jim for joining 493 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 8: Bloomberg TV. 494 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 4: Jonathan. 495 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 8: Of course, he's also the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. 496 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 8: He will be key to next year's twenty twenty five 497 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 8: tax fate. 498 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 2: I have no idea the people of Oregon with that 499 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 2: interest in anti trust and competitive issues. 500 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 4: Amra, Thank you. 501 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,920 Speaker 2: Mh Aver in Chicago. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, 502 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 2: bringing you the best in markets, economics, an gio politics. 503 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday 504 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 2: mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to 505 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 506 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 2: and as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg 507 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:30,400 Speaker 2: Business app.