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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Odd Lots. I'm Tracy Alloway, Executive

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Speaker 1: editor at Bloomberg Markets, and I'm Joe Wisenthal, Managing editor

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Markets. So, Joe, um, you know, eight times

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Speaker 1: a year, markets kind of go through this ritual where

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Speaker 1: we have policymakers from the Federal Reserve meeting to discuss

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Speaker 1: US monetary policy. And today is actually one of those days. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I'm partial to Jobs Day every month, non farm

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Speaker 1: pay Day, first Friday every month is my favorite day.

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Speaker 1: You know, It's like the Super Bowl twelve times a year.

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Speaker 1: It's my favorite day. But in terms of excitement, the

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Speaker 1: next closest day for me has to be obviously the

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Speaker 1: eight times a year that the FED meets and decides

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Speaker 1: what it's gonna do with monetary policy. And we're recording

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Speaker 1: this on UM. Today is June fifteenth, so it's a

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserved day. We were or to get before the decision,

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Speaker 1: so we don't know what's gonna come after, but today

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about Federal Reserve and monetary policy.

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Speaker 1: A book from a slightly broader perspective, right, so you

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Speaker 1: know what happens on FED days, Right, Everyone goes kind

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Speaker 1: of nuts. We have all the economists piling in making

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Speaker 1: their predictions and then analyzing what actually happens. We have

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Speaker 1: investors who are potentially repositioning their portfolios, analysts, the media.

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Speaker 1: It's all anyone can ever talk about. But was this

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Speaker 1: always the case, or was this degree of FED watching?

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Speaker 1: You know, something relatively new that happened only in the

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Speaker 1: past few years. We are going to speak with one

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Speaker 1: of our all time favorite FED watchers to discuss We

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Speaker 1: are here with Tim Dewey. He's professor at the University

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Speaker 1: of Oregon, writes a fantastic blog basically devoted to watching

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Speaker 1: the FED, and Tim is in studio with us. So

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Speaker 1: welcome Tim, doing well, Thank you very much for having

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Speaker 1: me today. It's a great day in New York and

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Speaker 1: I have been having a great time. Thank you. So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about the beginning right now, or let's take

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Speaker 1: it from the beginning, because we know that FED Day

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Speaker 1: is this huge, essentially market holiday, and there's everyone tries

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Speaker 1: to pick a part the FED statement and look at

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Speaker 1: every word and try to figure out what it means

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Speaker 1: and the dots in the press conference. But was it

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Speaker 1: always like that? It has become more involved over time.

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Speaker 1: I started doing this back in the late ninety nineties,

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Speaker 1: and at that point in time, it was it was

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Speaker 1: still a big deal, but it wasn't the circus that

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Speaker 1: is today, especially because we didn't have statements that were

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Speaker 1: usually as as extensive, we didn't have a press conference

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Speaker 1: to work with h And I think that over the

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Speaker 1: period that I've been looking at it, well, another issue

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Speaker 1: is that the monetary policy has become such a more

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Speaker 1: important part of the economy. As we've transitioned away from,

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Speaker 1: you know, less and less using fiscal policy as a

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Speaker 1: as a stabilization tool, a lot of more emphasis has

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Speaker 1: been put on the federals serve as as a stabilizer

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Speaker 1: for for economic activity. So over that period of time,

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Speaker 1: I think definitely, yes, we have seen much much more

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Speaker 1: interest in the subject. And was there a moment where

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Speaker 1: you kind of realized to yourself that fed watching had

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Speaker 1: become a thing? Uh? Maybe when I started doing it

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Speaker 1: as a job, was the was the time I thought

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Speaker 1: it became a thing? You know? Uh? Again, because I've

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Speaker 1: been doing it for for quite a while, I've been

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Speaker 1: able to see it build and evolve over time, And

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Speaker 1: so for me, there was no one sharp break that

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Speaker 1: it became much more interesting. Although I would say that

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Speaker 1: during the financial crisis, uh, it certainly rose in prominent.

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Speaker 1: It's a great deal because it wasn't then just about

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Speaker 1: interest rates. That's when you went down the road of

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Speaker 1: the alphabet soup of of lending facilities to help ease

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Speaker 1: the financial crisis, for example, you went down the realm

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Speaker 1: of quantitative easing. Uh So, so the nature of the

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Speaker 1: game did change, I think dramatically at that point. Became

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Speaker 1: somewhat more complex too, and you did more direct forward

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Speaker 1: guidance uh to the markets. And so sometime within the

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Speaker 1: last since the financial crisis, I do think there has

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Speaker 1: been a market increase in the attention that we give

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Speaker 1: to the Federal Reserve, and and a lot of that's

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Speaker 1: just due to the broader scope of the activities that

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Speaker 1: it's engaged in. So let's get down to specifics you mentioned. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, the actual Fed statements are longer today than

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Speaker 1: they used to be. There's more words in them. Then

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Speaker 1: they're all these following things. When you first started off,

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Speaker 1: obviously there weren't press conferences. What do you see as

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Speaker 1: having been the most significant changes to the job of

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Speaker 1: watching the Fed over the time, and what do you

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Speaker 1: make of those changes? Have they been for the better

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Speaker 1: or worse? Generally? I think they've been for the better,

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Speaker 1: a couple of big changes. When I started doing this,

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Speaker 1: Alan Greenspan was was the chair, and it was I

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Speaker 1: felt that was a very different environment in a number

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Speaker 1: of respects, one of which is I thought really had

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Speaker 1: to pay much more attention to the governors which were

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Speaker 1: speaking more frequently. Plus you had to recognize that that

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Speaker 1: Alan Greenspan was having a very large driving influence on

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Speaker 1: the direction of policy. So in some sense that made

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Speaker 1: made a little bit easier. I know that there's this

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Speaker 1: view that Alan Greenspan is fairly opaque to understand, but

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Speaker 1: it made it easier in the fact in the in

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Speaker 1: the idea that you only had one person you had

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Speaker 1: to understand UH. And so so that was something we

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Speaker 1: lived with for quite a while. And that's something that

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Speaker 1: I think has changed quite dramatically since the bernanke fed

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Speaker 1: UH and the Yelling fed is that we do have

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Speaker 1: a lot more speaking on the part of the president's UH.

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Speaker 1: There seems to be a lot more influence from some

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Speaker 1: presidents than that maybe I had since in the past. UH.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Another issue is that we don't have

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Speaker 1: as many governors talking as as part of that because

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Speaker 1: we haven't had as many governors has been understaff for

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Speaker 1: for for quite some time, we don't seem to have

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Speaker 1: the the the governor speaking as much as they used

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Speaker 1: to about policy, and that I think is something that

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Speaker 1: is um that's something that's lost. I very much value

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Speaker 1: that that core of the committee coming public on a

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Speaker 1: frequent basis with their views as a guiding direction for

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Speaker 1: the for for policy. And so what to what do

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Speaker 1: you attribute that flip? So, just for those who aren't

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Speaker 1: familiar with that, the presidents are the presidents of the

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Speaker 1: regional federal reserve banks. The governors are in d C.

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Speaker 1: And you said it used to be the governors talked more.

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Speaker 1: Now we hear a lot more from the president. When

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Speaker 1: did that change? And why is that? It seemed that

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Speaker 1: it changed? For me, what I started to recognize it

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Speaker 1: was sometime between that transition between the Greenspans FED and

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Speaker 1: the Bernankee FED, where I thought that really that the

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Speaker 1: voice from from the um the governors was becoming much

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Speaker 1: much more distant. And why did that happen? I think

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Speaker 1: that the governors now do not necessarily view that as

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Speaker 1: as important part of their job as maybe the governors

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Speaker 1: did in the past, that that public outreach aspect of

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Speaker 1: it is something in some sense they seem to be

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Speaker 1: leaving to many of the FED presidents rather than taking

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Speaker 1: them on on themselves. It might also be because they

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Speaker 1: don't want to seem as to be guiding policy, as

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Speaker 1: you know, in the open as much as maybe they

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Speaker 1: are in the background. So it sounds like you have

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Speaker 1: this cacophony of FED voices. Now you also have a

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Speaker 1: sort of a balance of power lacking in the form

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Speaker 1: of the governors. You have all these new monetary stimulus

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Speaker 1: measures that were announced since the crisis. F MC statements

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Speaker 1: are getting long or does that make the job of

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Speaker 1: FED watching more difficult? And what can you do to

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Speaker 1: try to cut through all that noise nowadays? I do

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Speaker 1: think it makes the job more difficult. Like I said earlier,

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Speaker 1: when we just had Alan Greenspan to worry about, that

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Speaker 1: made it I think much easier. But now you really

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Speaker 1: do have to look at each speech, look at each

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Speaker 1: president and see if they are making statements that are

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Speaker 1: reasonably consistent with the rest of the group, and if

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Speaker 1: they're not reasonably consistent. You have to then decide is

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Speaker 1: this something we should just throw out or is this

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Speaker 1: something that's going to be a you know, the way

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Speaker 1: of the future, a change in policy. And it takes

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Speaker 1: a lot of work to go through these speeches on

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Speaker 1: a regular basis and understand where everybody is positioned. And

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Speaker 1: that's you know, I think an increasingly large challenge for

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Speaker 1: for for FED watching in general, and may involve that

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Speaker 1: may reflect some of the confusion that that market participants

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Speaker 1: seem to have about what is the FED really think?

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Speaker 1: What is the Fed's fundamental reaction function? Because we're having

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Speaker 1: a hard time piecing it together from all the individual talks, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's sort of like this big picture question

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Speaker 1: because obviously the FED communicates in all these new ways.

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Speaker 1: So there's a press conference and there wasn't one before,

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Speaker 1: and there's the dot plot and that's an innovation, and um,

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Speaker 1: then there's all this talk, but it still doesn't feel

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Speaker 1: as though the market or anybody really knows what the

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Speaker 1: FED cares about, what its target, what what as as

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Speaker 1: people put it, its reaction function. So does that mean

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Speaker 1: that it's not accomplishing all this extra communication, that it's

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Speaker 1: not accomplishing what it's supposed to. I think Joe is

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Speaker 1: trying to ask nicely, if you think the FEDS communication

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Speaker 1: is effective? No, that's right, Um, I think it's or

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Speaker 1: counter effective and like that, not just not effective, but

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Speaker 1: that all all these things explicitly designed to prove clear

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Speaker 1: they are having the opposite effect. Well, that's the problem

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Speaker 1: is the more you try to clarify what you don't know,

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Speaker 1: the more it's revealed that you don't really know what

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Speaker 1: the future is. And they think that's what we've been

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Speaker 1: falling into is these intense efforts of clarification, really, um,

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Speaker 1: are revealing that the FED doesn't have as much better

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Speaker 1: idea about the future as any of us. And I

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Speaker 1: like to think that creates a more real environment in

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Speaker 1: some sense where we recognize that what what what the

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Speaker 1: FED things are going to do and what they actually

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Speaker 1: do are very different things because they don't really know

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Speaker 1: what the economy is going to do. And it's very

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Speaker 1: difficult to uh in that environment when they're actually being

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Speaker 1: much more open about that, to say, Okay, here's what

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Speaker 1: they said. Why aren't they doing what they said? Well,

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Speaker 1: you really have to go backwards and say what's going on?

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Speaker 1: In the in the economy that that pulls it together.

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Speaker 1: So um has this made it less effective of a

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Speaker 1: communication strategy? It depends what their ultimate goal is. Right,

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Speaker 1: If the ultimate goal of the communication strategy was to

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Speaker 1: make it clear where interest rates are going to be,

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Speaker 1: it's not particularly effective because they can't know it that

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Speaker 1: in advance, and efforts to try to pretend like they

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Speaker 1: know it in advance have not been very effective. And

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Speaker 1: so that's where I think the communication strategy really kinds

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Speaker 1: of falls apart, is when they started insinuate that they

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Speaker 1: have a very good idea of where interest rates are

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Speaker 1: going to be and and they can't get there. But

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Speaker 1: and so another possible goal are actually arguably the real

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Speaker 1: goal of the FED is to have full employment and

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Speaker 1: stable prices. And so sure, sometimes market participants might complain

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Speaker 1: it's like, oh, we don't know what the FED is

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Speaker 1: gonna do, but perhaps that shouldn't be the measure by

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Speaker 1: which we judge the FED, and we should measure them.

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Speaker 1: And you know, unemployment rate has come down a lot

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Speaker 1: since the financial crisis, and arguably inflate prices have been

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Speaker 1: quite stable, so judged by those metrics, maybe it's all working.

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Speaker 1: That's that's I think an excellent point is what do

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Speaker 1: we expect the Federal Reserve to do? Well? It's not

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Speaker 1: necessary to hold our hands through every FED meeting. We

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Speaker 1: expect the Federal Reserve to deliver on its mandates of

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Speaker 1: stable prices and full employment. And the extent that we're

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Speaker 1: moving in that direction, UM quite well in many metrics,

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Speaker 1: by many metrics. Is it really a siinus success for

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Speaker 1: the institution? And the fact that maybe we don't always

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Speaker 1: get what the next interest rate UM call is going

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Speaker 1: to be, we don't always get that right. That's not

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Speaker 1: necessarily a problem for the FED UM or for the

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Speaker 1: economy as a whole. It's certainly a problem for you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe market participants that that that have to worry about that,

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Speaker 1: But that's not what we should be caring about as

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Speaker 1: an eventual outcome of the FED tim We haven't actually

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Speaker 1: talked about this much. But you are based in Oregon,

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Speaker 1: whereas the vast majority of FED watchers are usually on

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Speaker 1: the East coast. Um does that influence the way you

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Speaker 1: work at all or how you analyze the Central Bank? Well?

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Speaker 1: I think it has to two advantages. One is most

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Speaker 1: of the news or a lot of news will come

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Speaker 1: out at eight thirty in the morning when these data

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Speaker 1: points are released, and maybe I'm just rolling out of

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Speaker 1: bed at that point because it's five thirty on the

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Speaker 1: West coast. UH. And the advantage there is that I'm

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Speaker 1: not forced to be instant pundent quite as much. I

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Speaker 1: get to digest maybe the information for a little bit

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Speaker 1: longer before I'm able to comment or think about it.

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Speaker 1: Another advantage is being outside the fray a little bit

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Speaker 1: where I can take maybe a different perspective than UH.

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Speaker 1: Then I'm not getting this sort of I'm not fed

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Speaker 1: with the chatter, constant chatter in the background that might

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Speaker 1: be influencing the way we sort of turned into group think, right,

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Speaker 1: we start to develop a group thank if we're all

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Speaker 1: talking about the same thing a lot, and I get

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Speaker 1: pulled away from that because I'm as um engaged or

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Speaker 1: exposed to you know that that that aspect of the job.

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Speaker 1: So I think those are two advantages that the disadvantages

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Speaker 1: just being a little bit further away from from the

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Speaker 1: from the action, UH and not having quite as much

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Speaker 1: of that um constant dated day UH chatter in the background.

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Speaker 1: Here's another question, Tracy, and I as anyone who's listened

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Speaker 1: to this podcast for a long time. Have a real

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Speaker 1: soft spot for bloggers, uh and people who have made

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Speaker 1: a name for themselves in a different route. I started

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Speaker 1: following you because of your blog and you know, this

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Speaker 1: um resource that exists outside of most media institutions that

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Speaker 1: produced is such a top knowledge work. How significant has

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Speaker 1: that been for you in your career? Uh, to have

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Speaker 1: built this outlet that people come to and you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of making a name for yourself. For me,

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Speaker 1: it's been very significant. I was very very lucky to

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Speaker 1: be able to really re engage in this this policy

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Speaker 1: debate after moving back to Oregon. I think we've been

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Speaker 1: very very difficult to to end up back in this

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Speaker 1: position had I not had the outlet of the blog.

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Speaker 1: And for that I think, uh, you know my fellow

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Speaker 1: blogger Mark Toma for starting his Economist Few blog and

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Speaker 1: me being able to write on that. So I have

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Speaker 1: a question. The more we talk about FED watching, the

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Speaker 1: more I kind of get this vision of a bunch

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Speaker 1: of economists with binoculars like looking at the Central Bank,

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Speaker 1: like the way bird watchers kind of look at birds.

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Speaker 1: What's been the most exciting bit of FED watching? What

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Speaker 1: was the most exciting day for you. You've done this

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Speaker 1: for many, many years now, there has to be one

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Speaker 1: that kind of sticks out in your mind. Wow, there's

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Speaker 1: so many that stick out over the years, like then

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Speaker 1: the the financial crisis, there are so many days in

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Speaker 1: there where we just had no idea what the FED

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Speaker 1: was going to do next. UM And and so that

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Speaker 1: was the was certainly a very exciting part point of time.

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Speaker 1: UM last last fall when Governor Lyle Brainerd started coming

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Speaker 1: on the scene much more aggressively worrying about the international aspects.

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Speaker 1: Though it was a very exciting time for me in

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Speaker 1: recent history of just something very different going on at

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Speaker 1: the FED that people weren't paying attention to. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: so in recent history that's that UM. In in past

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Speaker 1: history or in in during the financial crisis, there are

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Speaker 1: so many days of you know, we're going to cut

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Speaker 1: rates fifty basis points out of nowhere that really resonate

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Speaker 1: UM in my mind. So it's a hard question for me, Tracy,

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Speaker 1: because there's so many of these things that that really

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Speaker 1: stick in my memory now as being really prominent days.

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Speaker 1: And I don't want to say my life, but let's

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Speaker 1: bring it forward to the current era of sort of

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Speaker 1: the FED and central banking. I feel we're at this point.

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Speaker 1: I mean, people have been critical of world central banks

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Speaker 1: quite a bit since the financial crisis, but of late,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing negative interest rates the sort of novel policy tool,

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Speaker 1: more and more central banks around the world. We're seeing

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Speaker 1: more and more people call for the FED to assume

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Speaker 1: a quasi fiscal role. Uh, whether it's explicitly funding monetization

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Speaker 1: of government spending. It feels like we're at sort of

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Speaker 1: this crossroads, or are at this point where people are

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Speaker 1: questioning whether the traditional tools as we knew them of

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Speaker 1: central banks are up to the task. How do you

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Speaker 1: feel about some of these big debates? It does do

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Speaker 1: central banks need to rethink their role in the world

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Speaker 1: economy and what they can do in order to help

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Speaker 1: the economy grow faster and have stable prices and all that. Right,

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Speaker 1: central banks are already really engaged in that process because

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Speaker 1: it's not about just interest rates anymore. For so many years,

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Speaker 1: it was just basis points up, basis points down, something

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Speaker 1: like that that was really guiding the general direction of

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Speaker 1: financial markets and economies. Uh, we don't have that world anymore, right,

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Speaker 1: So many countries are economies are nearer at the zero

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Speaker 1: bound or below it that they do have to be

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Speaker 1: engaged in different ways of thinking. And that's where we

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Speaker 1: saw what where quantitative easing came from. For example, UH

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Speaker 1: that we see in in in a number of central banks.

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Speaker 1: We see very aggressive actions on the Bank of Japan UH.

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Speaker 1: And one interesting, one interesting thing though, is that certainly

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Speaker 1: maybe some of these which we have thought in the

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Speaker 1: past would have been just crazy, you know, super aggressive

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Speaker 1: policies have not always yielded quite the aggressive impacts that

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Speaker 1: we would have thought, and that I think is showing

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Speaker 1: you something about the limits of monetary policy. I know

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Speaker 1: there's essentially two camps on this. One is that monetary

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Speaker 1: policy just needs to get easier, right. We we need

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Speaker 1: to push in the negative rates more deeply, we need

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Speaker 1: more quantitative ease, and we need better forward guidance, and

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Speaker 1: that's really the key. But the other camp I think

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Speaker 1: is is realistic here and that there's there's a real

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Speaker 1: need for fiscal policy that is more coordinated with the

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Speaker 1: monetary policy. Right, it's ten and you still have persistent

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Speaker 1: shortfalls of inflation targets pretty much everywhere in the world,

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Speaker 1: despite the fact that you know, we've had this QUEUEI

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Speaker 1: and all in several places tools which at the time

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Speaker 1: they were announced seemed very radical and people thought it

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Speaker 1: would be dramatic. So where do you fall on this?

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Speaker 1: Do you think that the industry, I guess really doesn't

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Speaker 1: require a rethink about how powerful it is, how powerful

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Speaker 1: it's tools can be. I think that that's correct. It

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Speaker 1: does have to rethink that, and I think it has

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Speaker 1: rethought that. Um And you see central bankers oftentimes saying

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Speaker 1: we could really use some more help from fiscal policy.

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Speaker 1: We certainly saw that during the during the recession, were

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Speaker 1: then UH chair Bernankey would would would say, you know,

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Speaker 1: we could do some more help care And would that

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Speaker 1: have been unthinkable in say the late nineties for UH

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Speaker 1: for a major central banker to say, oh, we need

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Speaker 1: more yea. So so I think that in late at

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Speaker 1: that period of time, they would have been much more

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Speaker 1: confident of their ability to guide the economy into a stable,

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Speaker 1: equaliber in path essentially, and they should then leave fiscal

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Speaker 1: policy to do a fiscal policymakers are supposed to do,

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Speaker 1: which is considered decide what the size of the government

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Speaker 1: is going to be, right, essentially, And that was a

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Speaker 1: fairly easy distinction to make when you're operating, you know,

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Speaker 1: an an acceptable um level of output for the economy. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think it's much harder to make that case, and

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Speaker 1: it's only gonna be harder to make that case if

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Speaker 1: we go into this next recession with interest rates close

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Speaker 1: to zero already. Then we're going to be pushed right

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Speaker 1: back into a realm of of quantity using very quickly.

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Speaker 1: And I think there's going to be quite a bit

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Speaker 1: of discomfort around that. Congress was never really thrilled about

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Speaker 1: the policy to begin with UH, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: I think you know we're in a zone two were

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Speaker 1: simple Bankers are very cautious about being too much of

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Speaker 1: fiscal policymakers, and they'd really like that job to be

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Speaker 1: taken back over by UM the fiscal side of the equation,

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Speaker 1: But fiscal policymakers have been hesitant to do so because

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Speaker 1: quite frankly, you need to rethink about how damaging debt

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Speaker 1: and deficits are, and that's really holding back some of

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Speaker 1: this debate. I don't want to leave our listeners thinking

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Speaker 1: about the impotence of central bank policies and the debt

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Speaker 1: overhang and all these quite sad and intractable problems facing

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Speaker 1: our financial system. So Tim, maybe just to finish off,

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Speaker 1: what are your best tips for people who are watching

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Speaker 1: the FED or who want to improve their FED watching?

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Speaker 1: Gay aim so to speak? So the best tips? Um,

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Speaker 1: I think the most important thing is to remember that

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Speaker 1: it's not about what you would do as a policymaker.

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Speaker 1: It's about what the FED is going to do. So

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Speaker 1: you have to remove your own personal biases from your

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Speaker 1: analysis and your research. You really have to think about wealth.

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Speaker 1: I'm Janet Yellen, I'm Lyle Brainer, I'm you know, a

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Speaker 1: FED president. How am I going to react to this data?

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Speaker 1: Uh not how myself would react to this data or

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Speaker 1: what you know, why I think inflation should be or

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Speaker 1: should not be. So I think that's the number one

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Speaker 1: UM trap that people fall into when they're doing FED

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Speaker 1: watching is they start to think the FED should do

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Speaker 1: what they think they should do, and that's not that's

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Speaker 1: not going to be a productive UM avenue at all,

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Speaker 1: uh to to work with. So I think that's important. UM.

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Speaker 1: Then the next thing is is along those lines, pay

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Speaker 1: attention to what they say and how they read the data,

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Speaker 1: and again try to say that they're reading it wrong

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Speaker 1: or right. UM. When it comes to making that final

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Speaker 1: final decision about where you think they're going to be headed. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And so so those are the the the best tips

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Speaker 1: that I can give as far as really what makes

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Speaker 1: I think a successful FED watcher. All right, Well, on

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Speaker 1: that note, Um, you know, thank you very much for

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Speaker 1: joining us and telling us about the history of your profession.

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Speaker 1: And I don't think that the FED uh is going

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Speaker 1: to become any less important anytime soon. I think FED

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Speaker 1: days are gonna be huge days for as long as

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Speaker 1: we can imagine, and so this will be This is

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Speaker 1: a very useful stuff to keep in mind. There's definite

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Speaker 1: job security here, all right, Thank you very much, Tim

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Speaker 1: doy the University of Oregon. That well, Tracy, I I

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Speaker 1: feel like I'm going to go back and listen to

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Speaker 1: this episode several times in the future because it just

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Speaker 1: seems this the FED is going to continue to play

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Speaker 1: such a central role in the economy and market that

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Speaker 1: understanding all this stuff is not going to go out

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Speaker 1: of stuff. No, I think that's one thing we can

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Speaker 1: say for sure. Um. The thing that struck me the

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Speaker 1: most was that, even for a seasoned central bank watcher

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Speaker 1: like Tim, is the idea that we really are in

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Speaker 1: kind of uncharted territory, getting close to negative rates, lots

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Speaker 1: of talk about physical stimulus. No one really knows what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen in a few months time, a few

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Speaker 1: years time, so it seems like it could once again

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Speaker 1: be very exciting days for FED watchers. I agree. And

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Speaker 1: then on that note, thanks everyone for listening to the

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Speaker 1: Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at the Stalwart, and I'm Tracy Alloway. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tracy Alloway. And also you can follow

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Speaker 1: our guest Tim Deey on Twitter at Tim dot and

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Speaker 1: you can find his stuff on Bloomberg dot com and

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Speaker 1: on his blog, Tim Dowey's fed Walk. Thank you