1
00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:05,360
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybake here for this Monday, the sixth

2
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:09,039
Speaker 1: of March in London. Coming up today, growing pains, China's

3
00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 1: five percent growth target offers little relief for the global economy.

4
00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,560
Speaker 1: There is a question about the future of the franchise,

5
00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:20,200
Speaker 1: the parting words of Paris Associates CIO, as they reportedly

6
00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,880
Speaker 1: sell their entire credit suite stake making ends meet. The

7
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,480
Speaker 1: Chancellor looks to cap energy prices and freeze fuel duty

8
00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 1: in next week's budget, showing out elsewhere, burning through billions,

9
00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,159
Speaker 1: and a twenty four million dollar question for CEOs. Those

10
00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:37,360
Speaker 1: are the stories we're looking at in today's papers. I'm

11
00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,960
Speaker 1: James Walcock Plus. Is London at risk of losing it's luster?

12
00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:47,760
Speaker 1: Brexit blues hit the capital's investment appeal. That's all straight

13
00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:51,319
Speaker 1: ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. The Business Views you need

14
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,280
Speaker 1: to start your day in just one fifteen minute podcast

15
00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,639
Speaker 1: on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business app and everywhere you

16
00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:05,640
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Good morning. I'm Lizzie Burden and I'm

17
00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,639
Speaker 1: Caroline Hike. Here are the stories that we're following today.

18
00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,959
Speaker 1: China has set its economic growth target for the year

19
00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:15,000
Speaker 1: at a round five percent. The goal was announced during

20
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,440
Speaker 1: the National People's Congress that began on Sunday. Bloomberg's China

21
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,720
Speaker 1: Economy of editor Jill Disis says it's a conservative target.

22
00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,040
Speaker 1: They want to be able to hit their target. I think,

23
00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,960
Speaker 1: you know, somewhere around five percent gives a Beijing quite

24
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,080
Speaker 1: a lot of room to work with. But they also

25
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,360
Speaker 1: want to They don't want to overstimulate the economy. They

26
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,800
Speaker 1: kind of want to keep things on track, and ultimately,

27
00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:38,960
Speaker 1: I think what Beijing is looking for this year is

28
00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,640
Speaker 1: economic growth that's really going to be driven by a

29
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,080
Speaker 1: rebound in demand. We'll be getting more of Jill's thoughts

30
00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,840
Speaker 1: in just a few minutes time. Economists had expected a

31
00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 1: more ambitious target of above five percent in the wake

32
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:56,120
Speaker 1: of rebounding consumer spending. Premier Leka Chang also said the

33
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,600
Speaker 1: government will work to prevent what it calls the unregulated

34
00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,880
Speaker 1: expand of the property market. Now, Harris Associates has reportedly

35
00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:08,480
Speaker 1: sold its entire Staking Credit suiss, ending a decades long relationship.

36
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 1: The investment firms. CIO David Hero told The Financial Times

37
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,120
Speaker 1: that quote, there is a question about the future of

38
00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,960
Speaker 1: the franchise. Those comments follow an interview with hero In

39
00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:22,400
Speaker 1: that Bloomberg did last August, in which he had this

40
00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,400
Speaker 1: warning for the Swiss Lander, but you can't keep doing

41
00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,840
Speaker 1: the same thing as they've been doing over the last

42
00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:32,120
Speaker 1: decade and get zero results. They have to put an

43
00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,080
Speaker 1: end to it. At some point. They either have to

44
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,080
Speaker 1: fix it or to look for other options. That was

45
00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,480
Speaker 1: Harris associates CIO David hero speaking to Bloomberg's Fancy and

46
00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:46,639
Speaker 1: Laqua last August. Harris was the biggest shareholding Credit Suiss

47
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,359
Speaker 1: for many years and halved it's ten percent holding towards

48
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,560
Speaker 1: the end of twenty twenty two to five percent. San

49
00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:57,079
Speaker 1: Francisco FED President Mary Daily says rates need to head

50
00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: higher and stay there for longer. In a speech Atton

51
00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:04,600
Speaker 1: University on Saturday, she had this to say. It's clear

52
00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,519
Speaker 1: there is more work to do in order to put

53
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:11,200
Speaker 1: this episode of inflation high inflation behind us. Further policy

54
00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:16,120
Speaker 1: tightening maintained for a longer period will likely be necessary.

55
00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,919
Speaker 1: Well Daily doesn't vote on policy this year, she is

56
00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 1: part of the fomc's meetings and Discussions. Federal Reserve chair

57
00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:25,440
Speaker 1: During poll heads to Capitol Hill this week, where he's

58
00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,480
Speaker 1: expected to echo her view that more hikes are needed now.

59
00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 1: With just over a week to go to the UK budget,

60
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 1: the chance of Jeremy Hunt faces a range of competing pressures,

61
00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:39,040
Speaker 1: but economic think tanks have warned that there's very little

62
00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:43,800
Speaker 1: headroom for permanent giveaways. Bloomberg Samuel Etienne reports strikes, the

63
00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,240
Speaker 1: cost of living crisis and a dangerously tight labor market

64
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,640
Speaker 1: all calling for physical support. There are no easy answers

65
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,360
Speaker 1: for a cast strapped chancellor. Although UK borrowing is running

66
00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 1: well below official forecasts, a Resolution Foundation and IFS are

67
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,560
Speaker 1: warning the government not to consider policies like fuel duty

68
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:07,000
Speaker 1: or a drop in corporation tax. One think tank estimates

69
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 1: a state will need five billion pounds just to top

70
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 1: up public set to wages by two percent this year.

71
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:18,720
Speaker 1: In London Samuelettian, Bloomberg, Daybreak, Europe SoftBank's arm is seeking

72
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:21,160
Speaker 1: to raise at least eight billion dollars in a US

73
00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,960
Speaker 1: initial public offering. According to Reuters, the British chip designers

74
00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:29,120
Speaker 1: expected to confidentially submit paperwork for its IPO in late April.

75
00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,080
Speaker 1: Companies have been choosing to list outside the UK as

76
00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,840
Speaker 1: higher liquidity, larger access to capital, and better sentiment all

77
00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,440
Speaker 1: prove more attractive than going to London Stock Exchange. Okay,

78
00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,359
Speaker 1: those are a few of our top stories for you

79
00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:44,480
Speaker 1: this morning. So we've got the budget that comes up

80
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,480
Speaker 1: next week. We also have the routers reporting around ARM

81
00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 1: eight billion dollars expected to be raised by soft Bank.

82
00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,599
Speaker 1: But ARM is not going to list in London obviously,

83
00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:56,839
Speaker 1: is going to list in the United States. I think

84
00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,880
Speaker 1: that is a key blow. And there's a big piece

85
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,080
Speaker 1: kind of science and technology and innovation that is supposedly

86
00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,039
Speaker 1: going to be part of the budget next week. Yeah,

87
00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,880
Speaker 1: the aims to make Britain as science superpower by the

88
00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,360
Speaker 1: end of the decade. It's Caroline. I think it might

89
00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,719
Speaker 1: be a case of closing the stable door after the

90
00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:16,760
Speaker 1: horse has bolted. You've seen armscrh. But maybe I'm being

91
00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,920
Speaker 1: a little too gloomy here. Yeah. Absolutely, I think that

92
00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:24,120
Speaker 1: you can't and shouldn't count London out. But having said that,

93
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,440
Speaker 1: it won't be very viassuring that. Also on the terminal

94
00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:30,920
Speaker 1: of this morning, City is planning a new trading floor,

95
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 1: not in London but in Paris, doubling the number of

96
00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,000
Speaker 1: traders that they have in Paris. Yes, they've said London

97
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 1: is still the main hub, but apparently they're going to build, Yeah,

98
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,640
Speaker 1: a much bigger office. And also I thought this was

99
00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:44,560
Speaker 1: quite interesting. It's not going to be the ros and

100
00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:48,360
Speaker 1: rows of trader desks. It's going to be pods, circular desks. Oh,

101
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:50,880
Speaker 1: the post pandemic world, Caroline, Well, it'll be interesting to

102
00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,000
Speaker 1: see whether that development comes up in the discussions between

103
00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,120
Speaker 1: Emmanuel Macon and Richie Sunac when the British Prime Minister

104
00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:01,000
Speaker 1: heads across the channel for discussion as later this week

105
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:05,200
Speaker 1: on Friday, can they reset relations with this windsor framework

106
00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:09,920
Speaker 1: in the bag? Oh, this is this Franco British summit

107
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,800
Speaker 1: that is taking place. I hope you're going to be

108
00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,440
Speaker 1: there on the ground. I have the playing that you

109
00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:18,000
Speaker 1: might be okay up next shelling out elsewhere, burning through

110
00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:22,080
Speaker 1: billions at a twenty four million dollar question for CEOs.

111
00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,600
Speaker 1: Now The Paper review on blue Bird day Break Europe.

112
00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:32,240
Speaker 1: The news you need to know from today's papers. Well, Carolina,

113
00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,040
Speaker 1: as I say, fresh from what looked like a pretty

114
00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:37,120
Speaker 1: good week for Rishie Sonak, he's planning to continue diplomacy

115
00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:41,000
Speaker 1: pushes with France's President Emmanuel mccron later this week. The Guardian,

116
00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,560
Speaker 1: The Times and The Mail all lead on the proposed

117
00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,440
Speaker 1: small boats changes that might come from that meeting, and

118
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,600
Speaker 1: James Wolcock joins us in the studio Bright and Early

119
00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,160
Speaker 1: for a deeper look into some of the business stories

120
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,839
Speaker 1: in the news today. James, let's start off by talking

121
00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:58,200
Speaker 1: about the interview in The Times with Shell's CEO. Yes, Lizzie,

122
00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:59,599
Speaker 1: I mean I want to put an application for a

123
00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,320
Speaker 1: pod where they go away. But Shell, it's the UK's

124
00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,680
Speaker 1: largest company, which made a record forty billion dollars last year,

125
00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,119
Speaker 1: so it's all the more worrying that their new boss

126
00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,560
Speaker 1: wealth to one that said Britain is less attractive and

127
00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 1: investment destination for both the US and Europe because the

128
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,960
Speaker 1: UK is failing to match them on his green energy subsidies. Now.

129
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,040
Speaker 1: So this is fascinating because the UK is always stressed.

130
00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,560
Speaker 1: By leaving the EU, it could have be standing on

131
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,320
Speaker 1: its own two feet, yet now it finds itself caught

132
00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:28,840
Speaker 1: between two juggernauts, the US on one side with three

133
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,440
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy billion dollars incentives and the EU on

134
00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,440
Speaker 1: the other side saying they will match any incentives that

135
00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:38,080
Speaker 1: go to companies that aren't European. The UK and the

136
00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,560
Speaker 1: middle is sort of pushing for this free market ideology.

137
00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,200
Speaker 1: Grant Chaps in Davos called it dangerous. That's the UK

138
00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,200
Speaker 1: Business Secretary. But so the question now is that is

139
00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,480
Speaker 1: an ideological problem. Can they economically back it up? The

140
00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:51,600
Speaker 1: other thing I find fascinating here, it's worth pointing out

141
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,440
Speaker 1: this is a large, multi billion dollars oil company that's

142
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:56,800
Speaker 1: talking about going green and is pushing to try and

143
00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 1: carbon neutralize, and its big push to try and be

144
00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,200
Speaker 1: at the four front of the green transition. The big

145
00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,240
Speaker 1: fear the Shell is saying is they would like to

146
00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:06,880
Speaker 1: invest in the UK, but if there's no money there,

147
00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:08,640
Speaker 1: they will get left behind. And the one thing I

148
00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,000
Speaker 1: want to sort of tease out here is that so

149
00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,560
Speaker 1: one said that the energy profits levy, the windfall tax

150
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,480
Speaker 1: to your government is putting on profits, is disincentivizing investment.

151
00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,320
Speaker 1: Now that is completely different to what the previous CEO,

152
00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,200
Speaker 1: Bernard Looney says. So it's not all sort of you know,

153
00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:26,480
Speaker 1: black and white here. There is some layers of gray

154
00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:30,119
Speaker 1: mixed into. Okay, the ft are talking about a US

155
00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,440
Speaker 1: tech cash crunch. M Now, what is fascinating. Obviously we've

156
00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,240
Speaker 1: been talking about arm Carolina, but it's not all sort

157
00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,280
Speaker 1: of golden sunsets and uppitlets sort of valleys up over

158
00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,640
Speaker 1: in the US. There is a big trap here that

159
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,000
Speaker 1: the ft are reporting on. And the way it goes

160
00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:46,640
Speaker 1: is you go to the US, you look for a

161
00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,280
Speaker 1: higher evaluation, you get it, and then you get a

162
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:50,599
Speaker 1: load of cash and a lot of these sort of

163
00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:53,360
Speaker 1: big tech companies then burned through that cash and the

164
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,679
Speaker 1: ft have run through the company's filings of the ninety

165
00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,240
Speaker 1: one companies that have reported last year and they burned

166
00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,559
Speaker 1: through twelve billion dollars. And the trap is now interest

167
00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,200
Speaker 1: rates are up. If you need a lot more cash

168
00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,000
Speaker 1: because you're still a developing company, how do you get it?

169
00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,320
Speaker 1: And you could be caught into extreme cost cutting. You

170
00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,200
Speaker 1: could be snapped up by private equity, or you could

171
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,760
Speaker 1: take out a pricey loan. One of their sort of

172
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:15,600
Speaker 1: global auditors they spoke to you for the piece, summed

173
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,160
Speaker 1: it up very well. Often when you were private, these

174
00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,199
Speaker 1: kind of things would be sort of behind closed doors

175
00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,880
Speaker 1: and could be done quite sort of gently. Now they're

176
00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:26,320
Speaker 1: having to face public markets when maybe their products wouldn't

177
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,160
Speaker 1: be quite as ready as if they were, say an

178
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,839
Speaker 1: emerging company to three decades ago. And finally, James the

179
00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,840
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal has an interesting story about changes to

180
00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,439
Speaker 1: the way we talk about CEO pay. So normally, Lizzie,

181
00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,360
Speaker 1: when we talk to CEO pay, you get a snapshot,

182
00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:42,880
Speaker 1: you get here's their current salary and maybe here's a bonus.

183
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,280
Speaker 1: But a lot of this is now being tied up

184
00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,160
Speaker 1: in stocks and shares. That's how a lot of them

185
00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,199
Speaker 1: make their money. And so the SEC, the US regulator,

186
00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,680
Speaker 1: has said, actually, we would like to see your compensation

187
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:56,400
Speaker 1: actually paid, and you're calculating how much you're going to

188
00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 1: get back in stocks and shares. Now, for Olivier the Push,

189
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:03,440
Speaker 1: who is the CEO of the oil field services company Slumberge,

190
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,480
Speaker 1: that is a twenty four million dollar difference. He has

191
00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:07,400
Speaker 1: paid a lot more when you take into account the

192
00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,080
Speaker 1: booming oil stocks. And if you go the other way,

193
00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,080
Speaker 1: the fastened out new equity awards for their CEO downiel

194
00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:15,520
Speaker 1: floor and is he lost nearly half his value because

195
00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,120
Speaker 1: of their tanking shares. So it's an interesting new way

196
00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,360
Speaker 1: that the SEC is sort of looking to calculate these things.

197
00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:22,760
Speaker 1: It's often been used by private ants for a very

198
00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,120
Speaker 1: long time, but it's intertantly how traders might react to

199
00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,480
Speaker 1: sort of having that big number in bold next to

200
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:31,120
Speaker 1: the company's results. Yeah, I mean, I think the idea

201
00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:33,440
Speaker 1: has always been that it takes a long time, you know,

202
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,719
Speaker 1: depending on when those stocks and shares you know where, Yeah,

203
00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,840
Speaker 1: when you take them effectively over time, how much they're

204
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,280
Speaker 1: actually worth in reality. So yeah, I think that's quite

205
00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,360
Speaker 1: fascinating that there might be a big red number attached

206
00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,400
Speaker 1: to these CEOs. Thank you so much, James Orcott there

207
00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,160
Speaker 1: with a look at the newspapers are really a very

208
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,080
Speaker 1: interesting round up. Let's also turn our attention though to

209
00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,600
Speaker 1: what happened over the weekend. China has set an annual

210
00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 1: growth target of around five percent, rather than above that level.

211
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,560
Speaker 1: The national budget was released on Sunday, suggests that fiscal

212
00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:09,040
Speaker 1: support will be restrained. Joining us now Aisboomberg's China Economy

213
00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,480
Speaker 1: editor Jill Dices, Jill, good morning, Thank you so much

214
00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,840
Speaker 1: for being with us. The key takeaways them from China's NPC,

215
00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:20,679
Speaker 1: these sort of political in quotes gathering over the weekend. Yes, um, well,

216
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:22,600
Speaker 1: you know we'll start with the growth target and I'll

217
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,840
Speaker 1: also just remind you that it's the NPC is going

218
00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,440
Speaker 1: to continue through this week where I think we're going

219
00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 1: to see a lot more changes, including you know, maybe

220
00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,560
Speaker 1: some big shakeups at the high political you know, executive

221
00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,640
Speaker 1: levels where she's probably going to president. She is probably

222
00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,960
Speaker 1: going to consolidate as power more and sell some more allies.

223
00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,800
Speaker 1: But what we've seen already is that that growth target

224
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,520
Speaker 1: that you mentioned in quite conservative, probably signaling that there's

225
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 1: not going to be a ton of stimulus coming out

226
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 1: of China this year, and we're seeing that kind of

227
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:54,040
Speaker 1: reflected into commodity markets. Right. It's doesn't seem like China

228
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:59,800
Speaker 1: is prepared toduce growth through you know, real estate, infrastructure,

229
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:01,560
Speaker 1: those kinds of things, and instead it is probably going

230
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:06,040
Speaker 1: to rely more on this consumer driven recovery that's already underway.

231
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:09,920
Speaker 1: So what we've seen out of some data, especially in February,

232
00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,400
Speaker 1: is that spending is really picking up now that they've

233
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:16,360
Speaker 1: dropped all those COVID controls. COVID zero's gone. People are

234
00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:18,679
Speaker 1: you know, finally able to leave their houses and spend

235
00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,280
Speaker 1: more money again. Um. And it seems like that's probably

236
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,120
Speaker 1: where China is gonna, you know, hope that that growth

237
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:27,040
Speaker 1: picks up. So yeah, I think probably a bit disappointing,

238
00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,800
Speaker 1: um that this this target wasn't more aggressive, um. But

239
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,400
Speaker 1: that does kind of indicate that uh, um, you know,

240
00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,040
Speaker 1: it's it's it's we're going to be better than last year,

241
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 1: but not is uh you know, not extremely strong. But Jill,

242
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,520
Speaker 1: they missed the target last year. So I wonder how

243
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 1: much of a case of under promising and over delivering

244
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:47,120
Speaker 1: this is trying to restore Beijing's credibility and also how

245
00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,560
Speaker 1: much the hangover effect will be for international investors who

246
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,959
Speaker 1: are hoping to be boosted by Chinese recovery. Oh yes,

247
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:57,640
Speaker 1: I mean absolutely this is on the minds of everybody

248
00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,880
Speaker 1: in Beijing. Like Beijing does not like missing their targets whatsoever.

249
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:02,559
Speaker 1: Last year, as you mentioned, it was a pretty big

250
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,240
Speaker 1: miss um. So I guess what this target does do

251
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 1: is it gives them more flexibility. I mean, if you

252
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,400
Speaker 1: say around five percent, um. You know, China also does

253
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,160
Speaker 1: that thing a lot of the time where it's like, oh,

254
00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,319
Speaker 1: like we'll give you a range of where we want to, um,

255
00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,160
Speaker 1: you know, how we want growth to perform, all that

256
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:17,960
Speaker 1: kind of stuff. And I think that, um, this at

257
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:21,160
Speaker 1: least shows that if you know, the economy does grow

258
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,440
Speaker 1: by five point five percent this year, maybe even you know,

259
00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 1: six percent of things really really pick up, then you know,

260
00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:30,400
Speaker 1: they'll they'll certainly um uh you know, they'll certainly match that.

261
00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,320
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that ultimately it's it's it's just

262
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,400
Speaker 1: kind of shows that maybe, UM, China is also probably

263
00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,480
Speaker 1: a bit worried about what those international risks are looking like.

264
00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, as growth kind of drops off elsewhere,

265
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:46,679
Speaker 1: is demand is waning in places like the US and Europe. Um,

266
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,440
Speaker 1: you know, exports uh, major major contributor to the Chinese

267
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,520
Speaker 1: economy is probably not going to do um, you know,

268
00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,280
Speaker 1: it's probably gonna underperform this year. UM. These officials are

269
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,720
Speaker 1: looking out for those kinds of effects too, UM. And

270
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:00,839
Speaker 1: I think that that's probably presenting some some risks that

271
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 1: they're concerned about as well. He also did mention the

272
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,440
Speaker 1: shake up that could come in terms of those top

273
00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 1: roles under she the regulatory overhang. Those also quite crucial.

274
00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 1: Is she's sort of industry by industry crackdown. Actually overall

275
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,600
Speaker 1: does that continue? Yeah, we'll see. I think we've been

276
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,120
Speaker 1: getting some conflicting ideas about what exactly that's going to

277
00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 1: look like. UM. Now premiere La Kishang. He gave his

278
00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,800
Speaker 1: final address as a premiere yesterday, talking about the GDP

279
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:30,840
Speaker 1: targets and the government work report, and he kind of

280
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,040
Speaker 1: you know, suggested that you know, they're going to be

281
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,480
Speaker 1: regulating real estate for example, Um, they don't want to.

282
00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,840
Speaker 1: They want to prevent like unregulated expansion of the market. Um.

283
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,320
Speaker 1: But ultimately, you know, was saying that they wanted to

284
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,640
Speaker 1: boost market expectations and confidence for private businesses for example,

285
00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,600
Speaker 1: which I think investors have traditionally taken at least over

286
00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:51,280
Speaker 1: the past couple of years as a sign that oh,

287
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:53,960
Speaker 1: maybe they're maybe they're easing off the crackdown. But at

288
00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,480
Speaker 1: the same time, I think back to last week when

289
00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,760
Speaker 1: President she was talking about, you know, um, wanting to

290
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 1: roll up plans for deepening structural reform and you know,

291
00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,280
Speaker 1: tightening things for the financial sector and you know, exercising

292
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,480
Speaker 1: more control over technology and stuff. So it does seem

293
00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,720
Speaker 1: like there is some element of that regulatory overhang that's

294
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 1: still existing there. So I don't know that we're done

295
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 1: with that quite yet, but it does seem that at

296
00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,160
Speaker 1: least the government understands that they need to strike some

297
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 1: kind of a balance between you know, boosting that confidence

298
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,440
Speaker 1: that the market house and them. But then also what

299
00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:30,240
Speaker 1: are they whatever they're doing with the regulatory sector. This

300
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,360
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the stories

301
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,520
Speaker 1: making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. Look

302
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 1: for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apples, Spotify,

303
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:42,880
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also

304
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,800
Speaker 1: listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, the Bloomberg

305
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 1: Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. Our flagship New York

306
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 1: station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just

307
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. I'm Caroline Hitka and

308
00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 1: I'm Lizzie Burden. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

309
00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day right here

310
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,280
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe