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Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on

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Speaker 1: the next year is going to be an ugly election

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Speaker 1: year in which you can expect very little to get done,

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Speaker 1: to debt to it to become a fernitia political tool,

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Speaker 1: which doesn't help you the party. Bloomberg Sound on Politics,

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Speaker 1: Policy and Perspective from DC's top name for confident at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day that the Senate is gonna

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Speaker 1: put American families first. Thirty million Americans are expecting and

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Speaker 1: waiting for us to move the ball forward and get

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Speaker 1: stuff done. And when that doesn't happen, in his frustration,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. It's

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Speaker 1: the fastest hour in politics, and we are not slowing

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Speaker 1: down between now on the end of this year. We're

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Speaker 1: just having too much fun here inside the bubble. Right

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Speaker 1: this hour, we survey the landscape in a gray and

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Speaker 1: chilly Washington today with insights on the Biden agenda and

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Speaker 1: how it might play against the backdrop of the mid

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Speaker 1: term elections. With Bill Hoagland, Senior vice president at the

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Speaker 1: Bipartisan Policy Center, longtime operative on Capitol Hill. He'll be

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Speaker 1: with us in just a moment later, we'll explore the

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Speaker 1: geo political stories that helped define the Biden administration's foreign

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Speaker 1: policy this year. A lot of them are tough, and

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Speaker 1: we'll take a look at what that might mean about

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Speaker 1: the year ahead with Bill Ferries, Bloomberg's National Security team

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Speaker 1: leader here in the nation's capital. And we start this

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Speaker 1: hour with breaking news from Delaware rohob With Beach, of course,

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Speaker 1: where President Biden is spending the rest of this week

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Speaker 1: with family and where he will ring in the new year. No,

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Speaker 1: we don't have any word on the FED here, but

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Speaker 1: they did lift the lid on news. It got everyone's attention,

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Speaker 1: a big fire drill here inside the Beltway, and for

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Speaker 1: good reason, I can now tell you that the President

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Speaker 1: went for a walk today on the beach. The Democrats

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Speaker 1: may need a visit from Santa Claus when they come

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Speaker 1: back to Washington after walking away from the President's Build

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Speaker 1: Back Better plan before Christmas us And well, there's no

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Speaker 1: real direction right now on the way forward. So we

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Speaker 1: get into it with Bill Hogland, senior vice president at

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Speaker 1: the Bipartisan Policy Center, spent years as director of the

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Speaker 1: Senate Budget Committee, and we get to take his brain

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Speaker 1: from time to time bill, Welcome back is your view

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Speaker 1: on this matter? Build back better, the soft infrastructure, whatever

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Speaker 1: you want to call it. Evolved since Senator Joe Manchin

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Speaker 1: said no, is this effort dead? First all, thanks for

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Speaker 1: having me back. Has it evolved? It's basically, I think

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Speaker 1: it was pretty clear from the outset that this was

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Speaker 1: going to be a difficult lift in the Senate. I

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Speaker 1: think Mr Senator Mansion had made those his points very clear.

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Speaker 1: Has it evolved? I still think there is a slight possibility.

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Speaker 1: I'm still in camp that something still can get out

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Speaker 1: of the Senate. Uh. It will be streamline, it will

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Speaker 1: be cut back, it will be not nearly what the

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Speaker 1: progressives in the House want, and maybe a question as

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Speaker 1: to what or not the House can pass it. But

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Speaker 1: you mentioned it in the opposite you mentioned it in earlier.

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Speaker 1: This is an election year. We're moving into election year,

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Speaker 1: and from my perspective, the House and the Senate vote

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Speaker 1: control is clearly at state here. Uh. It's Uh, it's

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Speaker 1: very possible that that there could be a change of

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Speaker 1: control in the in the Congress next year, and I

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Speaker 1: think that will have a work. It will work to

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Speaker 1: incentivize Democrats to try to get something done, uh, as

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Speaker 1: best they can from the agenda on the argument that

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Speaker 1: if Republicans do take back control of the Congress next

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Speaker 1: and and try to undo some of that, at least

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Speaker 1: the president will be there to veto that legislation. So

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Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a strong push here on

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Speaker 1: the part of the Democrats to get something out of

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Speaker 1: the out of the Congress here. Uh, the build back

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Speaker 1: better is not finished. It's still in the Senate. We

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Speaker 1: go to the second session of the seventeen Congress, it

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Speaker 1: can carry over us still bringing this up for a

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Speaker 1: vote in the Senate. I am you know, that's a

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Speaker 1: real good question. I can't see bringing up something you

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Speaker 1: know it's going to fail, and so it's time to

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Speaker 1: rebrand this thing and rewrite this thing. It sounds like yes,

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Speaker 1: and I think I think they'll try to. I still

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Speaker 1: believe that you will see work underway. Now. One thing

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Speaker 1: that's going to be very difficult here is uh uh.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the Majority leader, Mr Schumer. He has indicated

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Speaker 1: that the first thing he's going to do when we

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Speaker 1: come back into session on the second session begins here

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Speaker 1: on game they are generally fourth, is that he's not

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Speaker 1: going to go to the Build Back Better, he's going

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Speaker 1: to go back to the HR one, which is the

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Speaker 1: for the People Act, the voter form legislative. Yes, and

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Speaker 1: there aren't votes for that either. Bill Well. I raised

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Speaker 1: that because I do think he's made it. He's signaled

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Speaker 1: pretty strongly that he's willing to change the rules of

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Speaker 1: the Senate in such a way that it would allow

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Speaker 1: for that that legislation to be considered with a simple majority,

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Speaker 1: not sixty. And I guess I raised this on the

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Speaker 1: argument that if that is his agenda, and if he's successful,

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Speaker 1: there is some possibility that he could get around the

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Speaker 1: filibuster by changing the rules specific to this type of legislation.

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Speaker 1: I think that will only further uh, polarize the Senate

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Speaker 1: going forward, and make his work even harder when it

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Speaker 1: comes time to do Build Back Better. Well, it could

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Speaker 1: make life a lot more difficult. Uh, if and when

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Speaker 1: Republicans take the majority, uh, you know, whether it's this

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Speaker 1: time around or later on, anything that's passed under that

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Speaker 1: mechanism can be quickly reversed. Of course, And isn't that

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Speaker 1: why Joe Manchin again is the obstacle there. He is

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Speaker 1: the obstacle there. I think there are some thoughtful uh

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Speaker 1: moderate Democrats to realize that if you do with the filibuster,

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Speaker 1: you better be prepared. What goes around will come around,

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Speaker 1: as you just mentioned, and be careful what you wish

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Speaker 1: were as as as they had found out as it

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Speaker 1: relates to the changes that Majority Leader Harry Reid did

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Speaker 1: many years ago that set up a simple majority vote

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Speaker 1: for appointments to the United States uh, federal judges. Later

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Speaker 1: becomes in the Supreme Court. So no, this is going

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Speaker 1: to be Uh, I think there's gonna be. I will

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Speaker 1: point out one thing that hard to even talk about this,

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Speaker 1: but the president has a requirement under the law, whether

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Speaker 1: it happens or not, to submit his new budget is

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Speaker 1: the comedy portion of the program bill. Right, Well, Uh,

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Speaker 1: it is important that something and I guess what I'm

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Speaker 1: getting at here is there is a possibility that we

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Speaker 1: just dropped this whole thing and begin all over with

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Speaker 1: a new budget resolution for fiscal year twenty red, and

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Speaker 1: that they could get together and start working on putting

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Speaker 1: that together. Uh here in the in the in the

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Speaker 1: winter months when they're supposed to be putting together the

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Speaker 1: budget for fiscal twenty three. Then that's the sound of

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Speaker 1: the Senate Parliamentary and riding off into the sunset right now.

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Speaker 1: One last thing I just want to mention is we

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Speaker 1: have a continuing resolution that's right February eighteenth, Bill. What's

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Speaker 1: going to happen that day? Well, that's why I want

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Speaker 1: to get to it. The chair of that committee, Senator Leahy,

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Speaker 1: and the ranking member, Mr. Senator Shelby are both retiring.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna want to finish this, and that CR could

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Speaker 1: become a basis upon which some of the things that

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Speaker 1: are not in Built Back Better could then be linked

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Speaker 1: into that CR going forward. So we've got a lot

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Speaker 1: going on here. Um, But to your fundamental, fundamental question,

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Speaker 1: I still think it's possible that something we'll get done

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Speaker 1: on build back Better. And I don't mean to be

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Speaker 1: a painter or full around here, but you knows, as

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Speaker 1: you know better than most. It's been a generation, I believe,

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Speaker 1: since an actual budget that went through all the full process,

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Speaker 1: all the committees, went through full debate and was passed. It.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's been It's it's another life. Is the

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Speaker 1: child tax credit? The motivator here? Bill Hogan? When when

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Speaker 1: progressives come back, you know those checks aren't going out

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Speaker 1: January unless they pass something. Yeah, well, I think it's

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Speaker 1: absolutely correct. I think that child tax credit is the

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Speaker 1: real motivating factor here. Remember, even if it is, it's

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Speaker 1: the hip We don't extend the current child tax credit

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Speaker 1: that was put in place back in the spring with

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Speaker 1: the American Recovery plant. There still is a child tax credit.

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Speaker 1: It's just not as rich and it's not delivered in

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Speaker 1: the same way that the current money is. So it's

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Speaker 1: to say that the child tax credits going away is

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Speaker 1: is false completely. However, to your point, yes, it is

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Speaker 1: a rich h enrichment of the child tax credit that

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Speaker 1: is a major motivating factor. I think that. I think

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Speaker 1: the factors that are really going to come down if

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Speaker 1: there is a final build back, but it will be

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Speaker 1: the child tax credit, will be something on prescription drugs

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Speaker 1: and something in the energy area on those will be

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Speaker 1: the three things. Everything else so we set aside for

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Speaker 1: another day, and those would be as a part of

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Speaker 1: a single piece of legislation, not standalone bills. I think

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Speaker 1: it's they would be part of what I'm still thinking

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Speaker 1: would be a single bill, like a reconciliation bill that

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Speaker 1: would pass with yes, boy, I'll tell you what though

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Speaker 1: you already brought up the issue. Uh, this thing goes

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Speaker 1: back to the House in a very different form than

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Speaker 1: it passed. You've got some very I mean, i'll say

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Speaker 1: angry progressive, very upset about the way this has gone,

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Speaker 1: and they feel burned. They were promised that this would

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Speaker 1: happen if they voted for the infrastructure bill and they

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Speaker 1: all went home for Christmas with nothing. Yes, well as

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Speaker 1: I uh, Promela Jappaua, the leader. Yes, I am typically

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Speaker 1: saying her name as the leader of the Congressional Progressive

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Speaker 1: Caucus has a has an article out today where she

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Speaker 1: says the President should do a lot of this executive order.

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Speaker 1: So I think part of the deal would be able

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Speaker 1: to come back. They'll hold their nose and vote for

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Speaker 1: the Senate, but she's going to press and they're going

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Speaker 1: to press to do whatever the president can do through

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Speaker 1: executive or I don't think there's a lot he can

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Speaker 1: do through executive order that's him built back better. I

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Speaker 1: think it still requires legislation, but there will be some

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Speaker 1: behind the scenes. What can we do through executive order

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Speaker 1: that we didn't get in build back better. I'm glad

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Speaker 1: you brought it up because she was saying that on

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Speaker 1: the Sunday shows as well, after after seeing the incredible,

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Speaker 1: i'm assuming historic number of executive orders that came out

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Speaker 1: of the Trump administration. And I don't know if Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden has a sharpie as big as Donald Trump here,

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Speaker 1: but didn't didn't we learn that that doesn't work. At

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Speaker 1: least things can be reversed just as easily as they

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Speaker 1: are implemented. Absolutely, Uh, but remember what I said at

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Speaker 1: the that Mr Biden has present Biden has three more years. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Here you still and you get this stuff at least

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Speaker 1: to put in place for for three more years if

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Speaker 1: if you can do it through exactly. But I'm back

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Speaker 1: to there, there are real limitations on executive orders, and

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Speaker 1: it's at the margin, and but I can see it

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Speaker 1: as possibly a face saving device for the progressives to say,

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Speaker 1: we're going to vote for whatever we can get out

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Speaker 1: of the Senate, but we're going to continue to work

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Speaker 1: behind the scenes. And by the way, even as I said,

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Speaker 1: even if we if I can assure you they will

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Speaker 1: there will be another I've been told by some of

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Speaker 1: the speak of Pelosi staff that there will be another

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Speaker 1: budget resolution, another They're going to be another Biden as

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Speaker 1: Apple Unfortunately, as you say, the four parliamentarian is gonna

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Speaker 1: pull our hair out again. But imagine how the CBO

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Speaker 1: is feeling right about now. Yeah, later, another drink coming up,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have more with Bill Hogman of the Bipartisan

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Speaker 1: Policy Center, talk about how this child tax credit might

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Speaker 1: be resolved, and look at more on what you expect

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Speaker 1: here inside the nation's capital in the new year. We're

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Speaker 1: just getting started on a Tuesday. We'll check traffic and

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Speaker 1: the markets on the way. Latest from Charlie Pellett coming

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Speaker 1: straight up, and we'll be back with Bill Hoglan here

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Speaker 1: on sound On. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Sound

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Speaker 1: On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. So we don't

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Speaker 1: have to talk about the debt ceiling again until after

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Speaker 1: the mid terms. What a gift. But as Bill Hoglan

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Speaker 1: reminded us just a couple of moments ago, we do

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Speaker 1: have to pay for government operations and that money we'll

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Speaker 1: run out on February. It sort of seemed like a

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Speaker 1: long ways off when they passed the latest cr but

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Speaker 1: maybe not. And Bill Hogland is back with a senior

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Speaker 1: vice president Bipartisan Policy Center. Bill, it sounds like You've

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Speaker 1: got a kind of a bigger idea going here is,

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Speaker 1: as you illustrated on the here, that this might not

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Speaker 1: just be another kick the can scenario come February, but

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Speaker 1: maybe a concerted effort to have a real budget or

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Speaker 1: maybe at least set the stage for one later in

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Speaker 1: the cycle. What's the best way to handle that in

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Speaker 1: your view? You spent enough time on Capitol Hill to understand,

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Speaker 1: you spent enough time in the Senate to understand how

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Speaker 1: difficult this conversation can be. And we're going to be

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Speaker 1: in the throws by then mid to late February of

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Speaker 1: some actual mid term campaigning. How difficult will it be

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Speaker 1: to keep the lights on? I think the You're right,

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Speaker 1: this is a conundrum as to how you put various

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Speaker 1: pieces together here. But the President yesterday signed the Defense Authorization.

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Speaker 1: Go it's an authorization, doesn't fund the money, it's that

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Speaker 1: subject appropriation. Right before they left, there was an indication

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Speaker 1: that finally, because the President, because that have been sent

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Speaker 1: to the President, he signed it yesterday. We now know

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Speaker 1: the top line for defense that should kick the can

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Speaker 1: uh in a way that allows them to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and now and put together the final appropriation bills for

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Speaker 1: the current fiscal year. We're in two, so I don't

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Speaker 1: think this will be another. I think they're the negotiations

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Speaker 1: now are underway for twenty UH to finish up the

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Speaker 1: appropriation bill, so there's no government shutdown or anything like

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Speaker 1: that in February. And I believe what I guess I'm

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Speaker 1: angling at here is there are many things that were

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Speaker 1: in Build Back Better. I don't want to get into

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Speaker 1: the weeds of this, but there are many things and

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Speaker 1: Build Back Better that were normally would normally have been

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Speaker 1: subject to appropriations uh UH, and they pushed it over

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Speaker 1: into Build Back Better and made it an entitlement. What

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Speaker 1: I'm arguing for is that there's a way we don't

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Speaker 1: have what we call caps anymore for twenty for the

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Speaker 1: current fiscal years, so a lot of those things that

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Speaker 1: were in Build Back Better that we would normally be

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Speaker 1: subject approve so one year appropriation they can put those

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Speaker 1: things over into at CR and and at least hmiliate

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Speaker 1: some of the criticisms that the progressives have about the package,

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Speaker 1: and then do in the UH in a streamline build

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Speaker 1: Back Better the things that have to set some priorities here.

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Speaker 1: But you mentioned it earlier. I think the child tax

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Speaker 1: credit is the big thing that people that the progressives want.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have to give up on their

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Speaker 1: ideas of expansion of Medicaid benefits or Medicare benefits, or

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Speaker 1: even the expansion of the Affordable Care Act benefits. They're

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Speaker 1: going to have to really set some priorities here. And

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Speaker 1: I do believe that this is there's an outside possibility

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Speaker 1: that you can combine a streamline build back better UH

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Speaker 1: build and a continuing resolute a appropriation bill excuse me

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Speaker 1: for twenty two that includes a number of those elements,

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Speaker 1: and that that might be a solution come February going forward.

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Speaker 1: It's a really interesting idea. What that have to be

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Speaker 1: reconciliation though, or we're talking to bipartisan bill. You're talking,

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Speaker 1: first of all, you're talking about a reconciliation streamline reconciliation bill,

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Speaker 1: UH limited bill, not not nearly what was of the

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Speaker 1: three point five or even the one point seven five

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Speaker 1: that people have been talking about. You're talking about US

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Speaker 1: one bill that's that's that would be passed with a

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Speaker 1: simple majority UH in the Senate. And you're then you're

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Speaker 1: talking about appropriation bill that's a separate that would be

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Speaker 1: a separate Technically it could be twelve appropriation bills, but

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Speaker 1: they probably will bundle it all up in one appropriation.

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Speaker 1: But that one. That one, Yes, that one could be

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Speaker 1: subject to a filibuster in the Senate, but I doubt

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Speaker 1: it because, uh, we're what already, it would be almost

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Speaker 1: six months into the fiscal year. Let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: finish up the fiscal year with an appropriation bills for

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Speaker 1: a political motivation to do that for Republicans in a

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Speaker 1: mid term election year, to to effectively appear to be

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Speaker 1: helping Democrats, even though it's likely for the better of

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Speaker 1: the country. Well, yes, I think there's a motivation here

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Speaker 1: for nothing else. Number One, I think that it's a

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Speaker 1: pox on both houses, if you both parties, if you

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Speaker 1: have a government shutdown. I don't think by once that

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Speaker 1: number two Republicans are on those appropriation uh committees. They

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about them as earmarks, that there are things

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Speaker 1: in there that they can take back to their districts

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Speaker 1: and say that they got for them. So there's a

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Speaker 1: motivation there, particularly in the House, for those members that

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Speaker 1: are up in tight races, to be able to say

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Speaker 1: that certain appropriations will benefit their particular community or their

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Speaker 1: particular UM community that they're district they're representing. So yes,

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Speaker 1: I think there's a real motivation to get this done.

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Speaker 1: I would also, as I mentioned, also you mentioned it,

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Speaker 1: it's an election year. Um. There are a number of

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Speaker 1: senators that are retiring on the Republican side, is uh

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Speaker 1: particularly And my guess is that, you know, I hate

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Speaker 1: to say this, they don't have to worry about what

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Speaker 1: they can do what's right for the country, not necessarily

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Speaker 1: what's what's for their party by moving toward its account

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Speaker 1: on the retirees, sort of a mantra for the country

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Speaker 1: right now in a lot of ways, we only have

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Speaker 1: a minute left. Bill, what's your read on the midterms

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Speaker 1: right now? From from your perch at the Bipartisan Policy Center,

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Speaker 1: do you see Capitol Hill as a whole going to

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party or might we have a split where

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Speaker 1: DEM's lose the House keep the Senate. Right now, I

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Speaker 1: would say that I think that's that the probability is

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Speaker 1: very hardh that the House will switch. I think the

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Speaker 1: Senate is still likely to It's going to be a fit,

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Speaker 1: it's going to be very There's ten races in the

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Speaker 1: Senate that are really up and close. My guess is

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Speaker 1: right now, Uh, I'm going to go out on a

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Speaker 1: limb here. I'm going to that it's possible that both

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Speaker 1: the House and Senate will switch. You heard it from

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Speaker 1: Bill Hogman. We'll have a chance to ask him again

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Speaker 1: as we get closer from the Bipartisan Policy Center. Bill,

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Speaker 1: thanks for all your insights this year, and happy New Year.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk with Bill Ferries foreign policy next on sound On.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Welcome back to Bill Ferries. A pleasure

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Speaker 1: to bring Bill back. He leads our national security team

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Speaker 1: here in Bloomberg's Washington Bureau. Bill, welcome back to sound On.

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Speaker 1: H Thanks a lot for having me. Good to be here.

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Speaker 1: We spent an enormous amount of time talking about President

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Speaker 1: Biden's economic agenda over the past year, the accomplishments and

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Speaker 1: discord within the Democratic Party, domestic issues. But it's actually

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Speaker 1: been a very important year, a critical one for geopolitics

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Speaker 1: and for national security. And you've been a very busy guy,

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Speaker 1: beginning with the end of America's longest war, add rising

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Speaker 1: tensions with two of our biggest adversaries, and there's a

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Speaker 1: lot to consider about one and the new year that

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Speaker 1: we're rolling into Bill, I'd like to start with Afghanistan.

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Speaker 1: It's off the front pages, but there are major problems

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Speaker 1: to manage there, and I wonder how long you think

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Speaker 1: it will take to fully understand the repercussions of our withdrawal, Right, Joe,

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Speaker 1: So you know, as you remember President Biden took office

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Speaker 1: then he he had inherited this peace agreement that the

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Speaker 1: Trump administration signed with the Taliban and UH which called

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Speaker 1: for the full American withdrawal by I think it was

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Speaker 1: May at the time, and he did announce in April,

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Speaker 1: as we started wondering, you know, are we going to

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Speaker 1: stick with that plan, he announced that he would delay

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Speaker 1: it a little bit further UH, and they gave themselves,

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Speaker 1: i think, an extra three or four months to try

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Speaker 1: to try to get on top of the the withdrawal

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Speaker 1: and try to get people out of the country. And

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Speaker 1: it ended up being one of the real black eyes

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Speaker 1: I think for this administration when you when you look

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Speaker 1: at what's happened over the past year. And it was

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Speaker 1: a surprising turn of events because as you remember President Biden,

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Speaker 1: you know, he was the former chairman of the Senate

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Speaker 1: Foreign Relations Committee. He really came in himself and a

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Speaker 1: team steeped in foreign policy and UH, and that withdrawal

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Speaker 1: really kind of I think it shocked a lot of allies.

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Speaker 1: I think it shocked a lot of Americans. We had

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Speaker 1: a tragedy of thirteen service members killed there at the

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Speaker 1: very end, and it's still this ongoing issue that, as

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Speaker 1: you said, has fallen off the front page is so

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Speaker 1: to speak. But there are still people who worked with

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Speaker 1: the US military during our twenty years there who are

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Speaker 1: still trying to get out that The administration says that

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Speaker 1: they've gotten all the Americans out, UM, but the economy

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Speaker 1: there is really in free fall. The Taliban have have

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Speaker 1: taken control but don't have access to a lot of

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Speaker 1: the the central bank reserves a lot of the asset

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Speaker 1: that the previous UH civilian governments had built up. And

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Speaker 1: there's a real question about how bad a famine and

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Speaker 1: the humanitarian disaster there will be this winter. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we're not talking about we're not projecting in the future.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about right now. The urgency UH surrounding the withdrawal.

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Speaker 1: Those weeks when we were in the midst of the airlift,

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Speaker 1: trying to get girls in women out of country, trying

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Speaker 1: to protect our allies, the interpreters, the drivers who helped

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Speaker 1: us wage war for the better part of twenty years.

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Speaker 1: That has died down. Bill. I just wonder, now, is

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Speaker 1: this more about a risk to our credibility or a

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Speaker 1: risk to our security in the new year. Well, I

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Speaker 1: think there's a little bit of both. I think the

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Speaker 1: risk to our credibility. I mean, I think we've seen

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Speaker 1: some damage to the credibility even with our allies on

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Speaker 1: how how that withdrawal was and how how poorly the

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Speaker 1: US did in terms of predicting that Taliban takeover. A

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Speaker 1: lot of people thought, listen, a year from now, two

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Speaker 1: years from now, the Taliban will keep fighting and then

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Speaker 1: they'll have a chance against this Afghan government. But nobody

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Speaker 1: said it was going to be, you know, the middle

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Speaker 1: of August that you would have Taliban retaking couple um

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Speaker 1: and then the withdrawal that was done. You had even

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Speaker 1: American allies saying, please, let's extend this deadline, let's go

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Speaker 1: into September, October, let's get to the winter. And in

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Speaker 1: the US held firm on that, and I think they

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Speaker 1: they said that, you know, their view was we have

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Speaker 1: to get out now. Uh, we have basically a working

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Speaker 1: agreement with the Taliban that will fall apart if we

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Speaker 1: don't and and in that case will be at war UM.

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Speaker 1: But then I think, you know, the UH, the threat

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Speaker 1: picture is very murky right now. Even before the US left,

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Speaker 1: you had al Qaeda cells that were operating in Afghanistan.

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Speaker 1: They were fighting the Taliban, they were fighting the Americans,

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Speaker 1: and the US priority, I think is to make sure

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Speaker 1: that al Qaeda and any other terrorist groups, including former

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Speaker 1: remnants of ISIS, aren't able to rebuild their the way

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Speaker 1: al Qaeda did in the nineteen nineties and ultimately struck

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Speaker 1: US with the two thousand one terror attacks. And that

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Speaker 1: is an ongoing fight and the US UH, I think

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Speaker 1: is struggling to convince. I think the administration is struggling

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Speaker 1: to confense Republicans and other allies that we have the

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Speaker 1: ability to keep those groups down. So the whole question,

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Speaker 1: the conversation about Afghanistan becoming a staging ground for terror

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Speaker 1: against the US has really yet to be answered. It

431
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 1: has yet to be answered, that's right. I think. I

432
00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 1: think the US does have some what they call over

433
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: the horizon capabilities. We do have an ability to go

434
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 1: strike an attack, you know, if we see the camp

435
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 1: there um. But in terms of the ability of the

436
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 1: groups there to hit US interests, you know, in the

437
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: United States or elsewhere, I don't think we've seen whether

438
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: that's possible yet. I think it's more the fear that

439
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: as Afghanistan falls into more chaos, as the economy crumbles further,

440
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,239
Speaker 1: that that will be a right breeding ground for for

441
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: international terrorism. Again, I haven't heard the term over the

442
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 1: horizon for a couple of months. Bill, Russia knows a

443
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: lot about leaving Afghanistan in a position of weakness. How

444
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 1: did our departure, if at all, impact our relationship with Moscow?

445
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: You know, there's there's a lot of different ways to

446
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: read that. I think you the Russians, uh, the Russians

447
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: and the Chinese and other countries that are basically in

448
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 1: that periphery, I think they in some ways benefited from

449
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 1: that American present, uh. And you know, with the Americans

450
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 1: keeping a lid a bit on on the terrorism there

451
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 1: and some of the fighting. That said, I think they

452
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 1: all viewed it as a as a geopolitical wind to

453
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 1: see the US getting beat up that way. Eager to

454
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: fill the vacuum, Vladimir Putin was eager to fill the

455
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: vacuum when we left. Eager, yes, eager to fill that vacuum.

456
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: I think a lot of other countries have interests there. Uh.

457
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 1: You know, for for the US to have a such

458
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 1: a big presence in Afghanistan, that was, you know, an

459
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 1: advantage for US to look in a little bit on

460
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,159
Speaker 1: things in China and Russia and the former Soviet states

461
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: there that that are still allied with with Russia um

462
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 1: and and I think they just they I think there

463
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 1: was you know, I don't know if it would be

464
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: shod in Freud, but you know there was they they

465
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 1: were happy in some ways to see the US take

466
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: a bruise um and you know, give them a little

467
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 1: bit more of a buffer space. And I think there's

468
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 1: you know, you can read into whether the American withdrawal

469
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: basically at all costs was was a lesson that US

470
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: adversaries are going to try to see if it carries

471
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: over to places like UH, Taiwan to uh to Ukraine.

472
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,800
Speaker 1: The back and forth we see now between NATO, Russia,

473
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: the United States and Ukraine. Bill Vladimir Putin has gotten

474
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,479
Speaker 1: more face time with President Biden than most world leaders

475
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 1: can claim. Yeah, I don't think anyone would have thought

476
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: that most of the bandwidth would have been taken by

477
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden's first year. But I think

478
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: it says a lot about Putin's ability to dominate the

479
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 1: conversation and to and to dominate the agenda when, especially

480
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 1: when the Biden administration keeps saying they want to look

481
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: towards China, they want to move the focus to Asia,

482
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 1: you keep getting you have to keep turning your head

483
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: back to what's going on with Russia and Vladimir Putin.

484
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: He knows how to play his cards very well. I

485
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 1: don't think we uh, I don't think the U S

486
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: could argue that it's gotten a whole lot besides crisis

487
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: management from the relationship with Putin. Now, Um, when Russia

488
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 1: built up troops in Ukraine in the spring, that was

489
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,400
Speaker 1: really what what prompted the Biden administration and the President

490
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 1: to reach out and have that first phone call with

491
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: with Vladimir Putin. I think there's a few things Putin

492
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 1: likes more than than being taken seriously on the world stage. Um.

493
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: You know, Russia is no means having its glory days

494
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: right now, but it still has a tremendous amount of influence.

495
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 1: It always gets a seat at the table, and we're

496
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: seeing that now after there was not a lot achieved

497
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: at the first phone call, in the first summit, Putin

498
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: has has rebuilt his forces again in Ukraine and we're

499
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: heading into the new year with people talking about the

500
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 1: prospect of war. Well, let's talk about that. The last

501
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: time President Biden and Vladimir Putin met by video conference,

502
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,439
Speaker 1: Ukraine was the big topic. It was really driving the

503
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: news at that point as we saw gosh, an excess

504
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: of a hundred thousand Russian troops massed along the border.

505
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 1: We understand that in some cases they were even strafing,

506
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 1: they were they were running drills to carve a path

507
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 1: for a potential invasion. But I wonder what you think

508
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: about this bill. Are threats to Ukraine by Vladimir Putin

509
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 1: real or an opportunity to get leverage and get a

510
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: sit down meeting with someone like Joe Biden. I think

511
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: there's I think there's both aspects to this. But I

512
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: think uh, I think Putin and UH and the Russian

513
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: leadership has has long been very alarmed at, you know,

514
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 1: the West growing ties with Ukraine. I think they want

515
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 1: to put a stop to that right away. I think

516
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 1: they view Ukraine falling too much into the Western orbit

517
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: as basically an existential threat. They do not want they

518
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: have NATO troops on the Russian border in other countries,

519
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: but I think Ukraine culturally has I think there's a

520
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 1: strong pull there for for many Russians, and they just

521
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: do not want to see US or NATO troops drilling

522
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 1: in Ukraine regularly, and they don't want to see Ukraine

523
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: basically trying to take back either Crimea or even these

524
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: contested parts of the don Bus region. Now, is there

525
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,719
Speaker 1: a difference Bill when we talked about the US versus NATO.

526
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 1: Is there a concern about our bilateral relationship or that

527
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: Ukraine someday joins the Alliance? You know, I don't think.

528
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: I don't think anyone was seriously considering having Ukraine joined NATO,

529
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: and I think that has not really been on the

530
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: table for a long time. I think there was always

531
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: talk about how can we work with them more, how

532
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: can they how can we have them be a partner

533
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: but not a full alliance member? And I think Russia

534
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: wants to put a stop to that as well. They

535
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: would like to see Uh, they would like to see,

536
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: you know, the end of US shipments of arms, even

537
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: if they're arguably defensive arms to Ukraine. They want a

538
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: very compliant, uh and malleable Ukraine their border. Um, that

539
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 1: is something that they can have more control of. And

540
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: I think the West is wants to draw the line

541
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: and we're not going to totally leave but NATO. Ukraine

542
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 1: is not going to be a NATO member the way

543
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: the way Poland or or the Baltic states are, but

544
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 1: as Russia prepared to go to war over it. So

545
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:24,239
Speaker 1: I think, well, arguably Russia already has been you know,

546
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: in a conflict with Ukraine now since when it when

547
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: it took over Crimean, annexed and then moved uh some

548
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: covert forces into the Donbus region. I mean, that's still

549
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: an active conflict. I don't think Vladimir Putin wants to

550
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: retake Kiev and and have his troops trying to hold

551
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: the whole country. I think he wants to have a

552
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: little periphery where there's uh, shifting battle lines, shifting lines

553
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: of control. Ultimately, the Russian military is far more powerful

554
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: than than anything Ukraine could field at this point. Um,

555
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 1: but I think he wants to keep I think he

556
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: wants to keep the water boiling with with Ukraine a

557
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: bit um and and keep their government a little bit

558
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: uh a weekend and undercut by what he's able to

559
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: do in other parts of their country. But I don't

560
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 1: think he wants to absorb the rest of Ukraine the

561
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: way he has tried to absorb Premia. Then there's President

562
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: she Bill Ferries. Is Russia or China the greater threat

563
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 1: to the US as we move into the new year, Well,

564
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: I think you know, China is. China is the issue

565
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: that's always on medium boil now for the Biden administration,

566
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 1: and I think for the US it is always there.

567
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: Sometimes the heat will get turned up, sometimes it will

568
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: get turned down, but that is that's going to be

569
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 1: the constant. Whereas other issues, whether it's whether it's Russia Ukraine,

570
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: or whether the it's the Uran nuclear deal, all these

571
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: other things may flare up and then and then burn out.

572
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 1: China is going to be the constant. And I think

573
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: longer term, the US has recognized the real economic and

574
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 1: security challenge is probably going to be coming from China. Um,

575
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: they don't have the nuclear arsenal that Russia has, but

576
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: they have, particularly in their region UM, where they see

577
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: themselves as the main power. They want to have a

578
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 1: stronger foothold. So we've seen what happened in in Hong Kong.

579
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: They are effectively eroding a lot of the rights there. Uh,

580
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:23,280
Speaker 1: they're making more advances on Taiwan. President she in two

581
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,719
Speaker 1: will be going after his his third term as as

582
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: Communist Party chairman, and I think he wants to make

583
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 1: sure that goes very smoothly. So I don't think there's

584
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 1: a risk of a big conflict in the immediate on

585
00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 1: the immediate horizon, UM, I think she has his his priorities.

586
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: He doesn't want to spark a war. UM. He wants

587
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 1: to keep COVID under control. But that's gonna be the main,

588
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: the main challenge. But like I said, it's it's always

589
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: gonna be. It's gonna be this medium boiled thing that's

590
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: that's always on the stove. You always have to tend

591
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: to it and uh, and it's gonna take a lot

592
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 1: of work. And I think the Biden administration UM came

593
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: into office knowing that, but I think living it and

594
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: figuring out the policies, whether it's trade, whether it's Taiwan,

595
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: I think that, um, they've found that to be very difficult.

596
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: We're boycotting the Olympics, or half boycotting the Olympics, at

597
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: least in terms of government officials. Do you do you

598
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 1: see a scenario in two in which Biden and She

599
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 1: actually sit down in the same room to meet. I

600
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: think that's going to depend almost entirely on President She.

601
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 1: He hasn't left the country, um and well over I

602
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: think well over two years now, I knows days because

603
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: of COVID UM and also because he's really trying to

604
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: cement this legacy there politically and uh, you know, in

605
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: a country like China, the politics it really is in

606
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: a lot of ways all local. I think the biggest

607
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: one of the biggest threats to him, and I think

608
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: the Olympics are part of that, is the degree to

609
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 1: which they can maintain this COVID zero policy um amid

610
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 1: the delta a variant amid amicron. If I think it

611
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,640
Speaker 1: will be, it will be a very bad look for

612
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: Jining if if COVID really takes off and and and

613
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 1: ripped through a big swath of China, and particularly if

614
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,880
Speaker 1: you see if you see a lot of people dying

615
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 1: from that it's it's not clear that the Sino Vack

616
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 1: vaccine is as effective as other vaccines in fighting the

617
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 1: different variants. And I think she's going to keep a

618
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: tight little things and he's not gonna want to go

619
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,880
Speaker 1: out and meet people. Uh. If there's any risk that

620
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 1: he's going to be or he is, his team would

621
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,399
Speaker 1: be bringing back something. So UM, I think if we're

622
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,320
Speaker 1: talking about a Biden she thing, it is probably later

623
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 1: in or going to be past the Olympics. We might

624
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: be past that Communist Party chairmanship meeting. Bill. I'm always

625
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: concerned about the stories that we're not thinking of. And

626
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: I know you certainly are as one of the leaders

627
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: in our newsroom. What's the story that keeps you up

628
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 1: at night? What's the story that surprises everybody when it

629
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,760
Speaker 1: comes to national security, geo politics, the stuff that's difficult

630
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 1: to prepare for. I think I've been very surprised by

631
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: how little we've heard from North Korea this year. Uh.

632
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 1: And and I don't know if that is also a

633
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: COVID related issue. UM. You know, they're always they're always

634
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: very secretive, so it's it's hard to know what's going

635
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:12,359
Speaker 1: on there. But um, and listen in a couple of days. UH.

636
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 1: Kim Jong oon always gives a January first UH speech

637
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: that has often been used to uh, you know, launch

638
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: launch a new uh I CBM or something like that.

639
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: But I think the Biden administration has gotten a lucky

640
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: path so far that North Korea hasn't been more active. UM.

641
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: There's a lot on the President's plate and I don't

642
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 1: think he wants that. And I think the big another

643
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 1: big question out there is what happens with Iran. UM.

644
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 1: They've been advancing their nuclear program very quickly. UM. I

645
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: think the Israelis are losing a lot of patients with

646
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: the slow pace of the the Iran nuclear talks. And

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Speaker 1: so you head into twenty two wondering, you know, will

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Speaker 1: will the Israeli be so tired of of waiting and

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Speaker 1: watching Iran build up there they're enriched stockpile of uranium

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Speaker 1: that they take a proactive strike on on facilities that

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Speaker 1: sparks more of a regional conflict. Bill Ferries, National Security

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Speaker 1: Team leader here at Bloomberg News in our Washington bureau.

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Speaker 1: Many thanks for the insights. Bill, It's been a heck

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Speaker 1: of a year. Thanks for having me, Joe. That's wishes

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Speaker 1: for the New Year, Happy New Year. It's been a

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Speaker 1: long year, even when it feels like the time is flying.

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Speaker 1: Here on the fastest hour in politics. So thanks to

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Speaker 1: the bills today, Hoagland and fairies, and we'll get back

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Speaker 1: together here tomorrow. Talk about one of the biggest unresolved

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Speaker 1: issues for the Biden administration after build Back Better, that

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Speaker 1: would be the FED three open seats for President Biden.

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Speaker 1: Of film, most of us thought it would be done

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Speaker 1: by now. You might remember Brian d saying on this

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Speaker 1: program last month an announcement was likely in early December.

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Speaker 1: Now appears unlikely to early January. If that, we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about who's on the shortlist, what option the president has,

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Speaker 1: as he's certainly thinking about this in Delaware this week

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Speaker 1: chief Economists for the amor because at Natixas Joe Lavornia

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Speaker 1: will be with us, former chief economist the National Economic Council.

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Speaker 1: We'll have Rick and Jeannie with us too. I'm Joe Matthew.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg