Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host. Welcome to a conference championship edition of
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchy In. My co
Speaker 1: host this week is Brian Johnson. As it has been
Speaker 1: the last several weeks high Brian, you know Scott and Matt. Okay, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm starting to worry about them a little bit, and
Speaker 1: it's uh, I can only I can only presume the worst.
Speaker 1: I'll reach out um to quote the naked gun movies,
Speaker 1: which I just watched a little of last night because
Speaker 1: if I bump into it, it's hard not to watch it.
Speaker 1: Which one went down in a freaked, rigible accident, I
Speaker 1: believe the first naked gun movie with Frank Drebin and
Speaker 1: two and a half. Right, there were there were others.
Speaker 1: There were others. First One's classic and the opening scene
Speaker 1: with O J when he breaks into the ship and
Speaker 1: it's just it's sixty minutes of just raw nonsense hilarity
Speaker 1: that slays me every time I see it. It's hard
Speaker 1: to like o J these days, these decades. But watch
Speaker 1: exactly exactly Nordberg. It's such a funny scene and there's
Speaker 1: so many great just as angers in that movie. Oh man,
Speaker 1: the Zuckers and Pat Proft at the peak of their game.
Speaker 1: I think, now you got me wanted to watch Naked Gun.
Speaker 1: It's been a long time. Yeah, it holds up shockingly well,
Speaker 1: I'm sure it really does. There's there's very few bits
Speaker 1: in that that are really time sensitive, I'm happy to say. So.
Speaker 1: This is a conference championship edition of Fantasy Football Weekly, Brian.
Speaker 1: That means that we're going to concentrate on the two
Speaker 1: remaining games in the NFL schedule, and like last week,
Speaker 1: our focus is on the DFS side. It's something we
Speaker 1: love to talk about what can't normally do, and we're
Speaker 1: doing it because for people who are playing playoff long
Speaker 1: fantasy football, there's not like bench start decisions to make.
Speaker 1: It's like, you know, you're starting everybody. I think the
Speaker 1: people that still have decisions to make right now are
Speaker 1: the people that are playing DFS, and the information will
Speaker 1: certainly certainly be useful for those in the you know,
Speaker 1: where you you pick up you can use a player
Speaker 1: once type pool. I'm in one of those where each
Speaker 1: around you know, you play a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end,
Speaker 1: running back, you don't use them once. So helpful there too,
Speaker 1: for sure. And I'll mention this. The letter grades are
Speaker 1: going to hear are relative to the cost of the player.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes might normally be in a grade, but we'll
Speaker 1: see where Brian grade. Brian's gonna give him. But but
Speaker 1: weighed against his salary, is he in a grade? And
Speaker 1: of course against the other salaries of the other quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: which is relevant as well. We can almost go a
Speaker 1: B C D just for the quarterbacks, to almost because
Speaker 1: there's four of them. Um, all right, I'm gonna let
Speaker 1: you start, Brian. You've got the Bills traveling to the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: UH as to be expected at pretty high over under
Speaker 1: here or around four fifty four points. These teams did
Speaker 1: play in Week six Kansas City one to seventeen and uh. Lastly,
Speaker 1: the weather looking like low forties with a little bit
Speaker 1: of rain in Kansas City, but the winds won't be
Speaker 1: much of a factor under ten miles per hour, So
Speaker 1: there's that. Starting on the Buffalo side Josh Allen six
Speaker 1: point nine k on DraftKings. In that first meeting, he
Speaker 1: had only twenty two passing yards two passing touchdowns. In
Speaker 1: the pick he did have eight carries for forty two
Speaker 1: yards um. The Chiefs before last week had allowed multiple
Speaker 1: passing touchdowns in eight street games. Baker only had one
Speaker 1: passing touchdown. He pretty much had to that one of
Speaker 1: that touch back. Where do you stand on that rule?
Speaker 1: By the gotta change, it needs to change. But what's
Speaker 1: what's your number one solution? Mine is spotted where the
Speaker 1: ball is fumbled and if it goes out of the
Speaker 1: end zone, it's ten yards from there. So in that instance,
Speaker 1: the Browns goal from the ten or the eleven yard line,
Speaker 1: or we can move it back even further. But turning
Speaker 1: over the ball and then given on the twenty exactly
Speaker 1: going yeah, it's it's double, it's double jeopardy. Well, hopefully
Speaker 1: they changed that. But anyway, back to the matchup. Alan,
Speaker 1: because of the health of Mahomes, so we'll talk about
Speaker 1: in a minute, has the highest ceiling on this slate
Speaker 1: with his feet and his arm. In this matchup, it's
Speaker 1: not a great matchup on paper, even though they've allowed
Speaker 1: eight passing touched multiple passing touchdowns in eight straight games
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. That is uh Brashad Brelan wasn't looking like
Speaker 1: he was gonna play with the concussion, but I think
Speaker 1: he practiced all week. I think he's going so they'll
Speaker 1: be at full strength in their secondary. So it's not
Speaker 1: like a super high passing ceiling for Alan, but not
Speaker 1: a very scary floor at all. And when you factor
Speaker 1: in his rushing ability, I think there. I like the
Speaker 1: high ceiling here because I don't think they're gonna run
Speaker 1: at all. No, not much, not much at all. But
Speaker 1: I do respect the secondary, especially with Honey Badger back.
Speaker 1: They're playing out great football. But Alan, I'm gonna give
Speaker 1: him the a. Uh. If I was rolling out one lineup,
Speaker 1: he would probably be the quarterback I go with. Just
Speaker 1: you probably would have been my homes I don't worry
Speaker 1: about the toe. Will get to that in a second.
Speaker 1: So an a for Alan. Over to the receivers. And
Speaker 1: by the way, all the wide receivers on DraftKings way
Speaker 1: under priced this week. There it's very soft. You can
Speaker 1: you can squeeze in a lot of these top past catchers.
Speaker 1: When we're talking top pass catchers will start with Stefon
Speaker 1: Diggs only seven thousand, he should be at least eight
Speaker 1: thousand dollars in my opinion. In the first meeting, he
Speaker 1: had six catches forty six yards and a touchdown. Kind
Speaker 1: of a quiet game dig standards. We've run out of
Speaker 1: good things to say about digs. To fade him UH
Speaker 1: rolling out one line up, it would be uber contrarian.
Speaker 1: At this point, he'll probably be sixty to seventy owned
Speaker 1: in the bigger tournaments. He was listed UH with an
Speaker 1: oblique injury all week, but they took him off the
Speaker 1: injury part on Friday. So again, if Prashad lance him
Speaker 1: out does not sit UH major boon for digs. But
Speaker 1: even if it's official official as it's no, they haven't
Speaker 1: said it's official. He has not said he's cleared the
Speaker 1: concussion protocol, but he practiced all week. He's I think
Speaker 1: he's likely to go. Even though Baker didn't put up
Speaker 1: big numbers, his receivers got open Breland only UH. He
Speaker 1: allowed five catches on six targets. Shar Various Ward gave
Speaker 1: up five catches fifty eight yards in a touchdown on
Speaker 1: six targets. Those are the boundary receiver, so Digs you
Speaker 1: just have to give him an A. But if you're
Speaker 1: running multiple lineups, it would be in your best interest
Speaker 1: to fade him in one or two because if he
Speaker 1: does go belly up, you have a huge edge on
Speaker 1: the field. There, So and A for Diggs and Uh,
Speaker 1: the rest of the receivers gets a little modeled. We'll
Speaker 1: start with John Brown, who had zero catches in the
Speaker 1: wild card week on four and then the wild card game.
Speaker 1: He also had zero catches on four targets when these
Speaker 1: teams met in Week six. But last week big bounce
Speaker 1: back for Smokey as was to be expected. He wasn't
Speaker 1: only ten percent owned in the Millionaire Make It, which
Speaker 1: is kind of a shocker, but at four point three K,
Speaker 1: that is way too cheap for John Brown. We saw
Speaker 1: Richard Higgins operating as the number two receiver last week.
Speaker 1: He had a pretty good game, should have had a
Speaker 1: touchdown basically did so I on gonna give Brown and
Speaker 1: be here. Uh. The only real concern is his ownership
Speaker 1: percentage is going to be through the roof when it
Speaker 1: comes through comes to Bill's receivers, at least probably looking
Speaker 1: at so just to be for Brown, then over to
Speaker 1: Cole Beasley, who just isn't looking right at knee injury. Well,
Speaker 1: they took him off on Friday, so you know, I
Speaker 1: got to assume that. Well, they took him off on Wednesday,
Speaker 1: and then he reappeared on Thursday, so they took him
Speaker 1: off Friday, so hopefully doesn't reappear on Saturday. But Uh
Speaker 1: played of the snaps last week only not only zero
Speaker 1: catches on only two targets. UH at four point one
Speaker 1: k though he if that knee isn't too much of
Speaker 1: a worry, people are gonna be off of him big time.
Speaker 1: Genarius Snead, He's pretty good. He's pretty good. He's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Might be the best matchup though when it comes to
Speaker 1: the wide receiver cornerback for the bill. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: give Beasley. He's not a safe cash game play because
Speaker 1: his flour is scary if he if he gets zero
Speaker 1: catches on two two targets again, but in a from
Speaker 1: a tournament perspective, I'm intrigued by him at that cheap
Speaker 1: price point, and we could see the Beasley of old
Speaker 1: fifteen twenty fantasy points. So I'm gonna give him a
Speaker 1: be at four point one k Um. The Bills have
Speaker 1: a lot of wide receivers, by the way, but they
Speaker 1: may not have Gabriel Davis. He's the most of the
Speaker 1: week's practice. I mean I think I I don't think
Speaker 1: he's gonna go based on the practices that we got
Speaker 1: or lack of there up. Yeah, he heard his ankle
Speaker 1: uh in the divisional round, played forti the snaps before
Speaker 1: getting hurt. He also had zero catches before getting hurt.
Speaker 1: So if I'm gonna guess the one I lay off, yeah,
Speaker 1: if I'm dumpster diving, it's gonna be Isaiah McKenzie. At
Speaker 1: three point one k he played the fewest snaps of
Speaker 1: any wide receiver for Buffalo last week, but he actually
Speaker 1: did have two catches to only eight yards. Of course,
Speaker 1: but at three point one k he he's a punt
Speaker 1: play with a ding up. Davis and Beasley not convinced.
Speaker 1: He's a hundred percent If you're not gonna play Beasley,
Speaker 1: mackenzie might be the guy you want to pair you
Speaker 1: call him a play. He's also a special teams like that,
Speaker 1: and he want to pair it with the defense. You know,
Speaker 1: that's always a favorite angle of mine because if he
Speaker 1: happs to return to kick. Uh, he'll get you get
Speaker 1: the big bonus with the team defense, and the Bills
Speaker 1: did have a do they have two defensive special teams
Speaker 1: touchdowns just one. They had that ninety nine yard interception
Speaker 1: return that was brutal. So yeah, I like Mackenzie as
Speaker 1: a standalone play or your parent with the Bills defense,
Speaker 1: which is not ideal going up against Kansas City, or
Speaker 1: stacking along with Josh Allen and uh Stefan digs would
Speaker 1: be an obvious edition. And you know what, Dawson Knox
Speaker 1: might be a fourth you might want to throw in
Speaker 1: for the Voltron stack at two point eight k Uh
Speaker 1: very touchdown dependent, always has been, but this is a
Speaker 1: very strong matchup. The Browns tight ends did not score
Speaker 1: against Kansas City last week, but they did combine for
Speaker 1: six just seventy five yards on nine targets. It's good numbers.
Speaker 1: And before that game, the Chiefs had surrendered six tight
Speaker 1: end touchdowns over their last seven games. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: talk about the Chiefs in a minute, but it's another
Speaker 1: week where you can go to tight ends very easily.
Speaker 1: With Travis Kelsey being arguably the top option of any players,
Speaker 1: so I almost think you have to start your entire
Speaker 1: your entire DFS portfolio has to start a tight end.
Speaker 1: Am I going Kelsey? Am I going Tony in? Or
Speaker 1: am I going elsewhere? And because though you know there's
Speaker 1: there's Kelsey is super expensive, there's Tony in who's reasonably price,
Speaker 1: and then you're just dumpster diving. And I think that
Speaker 1: to me, that that's the catalyst for my whole all
Speaker 1: the rest of my lineup decisions. Yeah, if you're not
Speaker 1: gonna go to tight ends and you're not gonna go
Speaker 1: elite with Kelsey being the most elade and Tony of
Speaker 1: the second best option, and you can maybe throw a
Speaker 1: gronk in there, but yeah, Dawson Knock certainly in play.
Speaker 1: He might be a little more than just touchdown dependent
Speaker 1: on this one. Uh, we shall see. And lastly to
Speaker 1: the running backs for Buffalo, not a ton to talk about.
Speaker 1: We're really just gonna talk about Devin Singletary at four
Speaker 1: point five K. He was pretty chalky last week at
Speaker 1: this price point, which I was shocked by because we
Speaker 1: just knew he wasn't gonna do anything. And there as
Speaker 1: much get it carried for the whole first quarter, there
Speaker 1: were there was much better options out there, but there's
Speaker 1: not it's under great options at running back this week.
Speaker 1: So despite you know, just ten touches for thirty seven
Speaker 1: scoreless combo yards last week, he only had forty five
Speaker 1: combo yards scoreless combo yards in the first meeting. And
Speaker 1: in that game is Zack Moss only a ten rushing yards.
Speaker 1: Of the running backs did nothing like they have all
Speaker 1: the year basically for the Bills. But at Singletary played
Speaker 1: of the snaps. His thirty three pass routes run led
Speaker 1: all week nineteen running backs. And even though Buffalo is
Speaker 1: not going to run the ball out the the options
Speaker 1: out there are just so brutal and trucked tough to
Speaker 1: pick between. We'll get the four net and Ronald Jones
Speaker 1: and I got a strong I got a strong angle
Speaker 1: in there. Then we'll talk about and we even see
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones continue to get vultured at times by Jamal
Speaker 1: Williams and uh a A. Dylan even got some runs.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna give Singletary a very strong b here.
Speaker 1: He doesn't have a high ceiling, but he is on
Speaker 1: the field. He will be on the field a lot.
Speaker 1: And uh Kansas City did allow the fourth most catches
Speaker 1: to running backs this season, and even though his his
Speaker 1: chalk level will probably pretty high, even though he went
Speaker 1: the bed last week. I like Singletary. I can't say
Speaker 1: I like him, but at that price, he's he's a
Speaker 1: strong b for me. And uh, we're not gonna talk
Speaker 1: about t J. Yelden or any other Buffalo back. All right,
Speaker 1: your side, chief side, I gotta start with Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: Of course, seven point six k uh cleared the concussion protocol.
Speaker 1: He's good to go there. But the the toe foot issue, yeah,
Speaker 1: tursto angle, he's he does not The mobility doesn't look right.
Speaker 1: And Brian, the single best thing that Patrick Mahomes does
Speaker 1: is create big plays when he's out of the pocket.
Speaker 1: And when he if he can't get out of the
Speaker 1: pocket cleanly and he doesn't have the same mobility and Ed,
Speaker 1: I'm I don't know. I think that takes a huge
Speaker 1: weapon out of his arsenal. And he's also he's also
Speaker 1: a rushing touchdown threat. You know, a sport last week
Speaker 1: and you know that that may come off the table
Speaker 1: a bit here too. So for me, I'm out here,
Speaker 1: this is my Homes is my least favorite quarterback on
Speaker 1: the entire slate because of the costs that he comes
Speaker 1: in and my concerns about the ankle yep, and uh,
Speaker 1: you're you're basically alluding to it even when he's outside
Speaker 1: of the pocket. We're not even meaning rushing the ballance
Speaker 1: of the off balance ad hoc throws he can make. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's gonna he's gonna be hampered by that toe. But
Speaker 1: no higher ceiling still for any quarter Like if he
Speaker 1: can manage the pain. Uh, you're looking, he's probably gonna
Speaker 1: come in the third highest one quarterback because of the
Speaker 1: price and because of the toe injury. So I'm still
Speaker 1: gonna give him a B. He would be he would
Speaker 1: just be a plug him in and play him a
Speaker 1: for me if if it wasn't for the two injury.
Speaker 1: But I'm very concerned as our user. Just a B
Speaker 1: for Mahomes at seven point six k um. Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: comes in at eight k tied with I believe Davante
Speaker 1: Adams the priciest player on the slate. Uh. Mark Andrews
Speaker 1: went the bed big time last week. Huge way. They
Speaker 1: threw to Andrews like he's either nine or eleven times
Speaker 1: last week and he had like two catches so I shouldn't.
Speaker 1: And then the first meeting, Kelsey had five catches sixty
Speaker 1: five yards two touchdowns. The Bills have been a money
Speaker 1: matchup for tight ends all season long, h including the
Speaker 1: wild Card round when Indie tight ends totaled like fourteen
Speaker 1: catches a hundred fifty yards in a touchdown. So I
Speaker 1: said fading Stefan Digs would be the most contrarian play.
Speaker 1: Fading Travis Kelsey. I don't. I don't see how you
Speaker 1: can do it again. I'm gonna give you do it,
Speaker 1: but you're right if you're if I'm gonna spend, if
Speaker 1: I'm going to spend big money on somebody, Kelsey's the play.
Speaker 1: The way to get contraring with it is again use
Speaker 1: him as a flex player, or you go to tight ends.
Speaker 1: But you'll see Kelsey because can go to type. I
Speaker 1: can't wait to tell what you have to say tight
Speaker 1: end talk. Uh Tyreek Hill seven point two k way
Speaker 1: too cheap, but he did have He struggled when these
Speaker 1: teams met Week six, just three catches for twenty yards.
Speaker 1: He would have one kerry for five yards. Trade as
Speaker 1: White is a concern by the name, but he's only
Speaker 1: played two of his snaps from the slot. This year,
Speaker 1: he will not be in the slot. Tyreeke has taken
Speaker 1: nearly six of his snaps from the slot, so they'll
Speaker 1: probably see more. Terren Johnson is your slot cornerback, and
Speaker 1: he's probably the worst cornerback they have on the field,
Speaker 1: and he is he is by Profit Ball Focus grade.
Speaker 1: And yeah, the concern here, there's really no concern with Hill.
Speaker 1: I like that he didn't have a big game last week.
Speaker 1: Really didn't have a big game. If people are gonna
Speaker 1: look into the first matchup with Buffalo, but it all
Speaker 1: goes back to Patrick Mahomes, but he would you rather
Speaker 1: have Kelsey your Hill, So you're gonna there, you know,
Speaker 1: you're gonna spend big dollars on one or the other
Speaker 1: as a one off. He would it might be Hill
Speaker 1: because I could see him, you know, running you can
Speaker 1: have a six dr touchdown rush with ease or anything
Speaker 1: like that. You don't have to And so, uh, if
Speaker 1: I had to pick one of the Hill, it would
Speaker 1: be painful to not use Kelsey, but Hill will probably
Speaker 1: be His ownership percentage would probably be half that of Kelsey.
Speaker 1: So I would go Hill, and you also save the
Speaker 1: eight hundred bucks in your your salary cap. So very
Speaker 1: strong be for Tyreek Hill. Definitely not gonna give a
Speaker 1: strong be to Sammy Watkins, even though it looks like
Speaker 1: he will play in this game, which would be a
Speaker 1: revenge game. Don't forget his former team Bills drafted him
Speaker 1: way too high overall pick they did so, I don't know,
Speaker 1: I was much too much revenge favor Robert Woods. Uh,
Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins have gone onto law and successful careers having
Speaker 1: left Buffalo. Ye. Yeah, but that was the old That
Speaker 1: was the old Buffalo. Yeah, that was the old Buffalo.
Speaker 1: There brand new. I mean, there are a lot of
Speaker 1: there are a lot of players who did it. But uh,
Speaker 1: the calf injury has to worry you. With Watkins, the
Speaker 1: kid always aggravate that he could he could, uh you know,
Speaker 1: he forced to sit the rest of the game. But
Speaker 1: again we gotta worry about Mahomes and and his mobility.
Speaker 1: Is how this toe is gonna affect his game? And
Speaker 1: but at three point eight, okay, that's pretty cheap for
Speaker 1: the number two receiver on the Chiefs. And when Watkins
Speaker 1: is healthy, he basically is the number two. There isn't
Speaker 1: a much muddy Waters but the Marcus Robinson and Mikole
Speaker 1: Hardman talk. So I'll give Watkins to see, but I
Speaker 1: don't like starting a guy who I'm not confident is
Speaker 1: gonna finish the game. So he's a very very high risk,
Speaker 1: high reward tournament play. Not I save cash game and
Speaker 1: play at all. And assuming Watkins plays, that really only
Speaker 1: puts to Marcus Robinson into play for me, Mikole Hardman,
Speaker 1: and Byron Pringle when Watkins is healthy. They their role
Speaker 1: does not has not been big enough. They're they're guys
Speaker 1: you might contemplate in like the one game showdown slate.
Speaker 1: So I will give Robinson a very soft sea at
Speaker 1: three point seven K just in under Watkins. I probably
Speaker 1: rather play Robbins and over Watkins because I'm more confident
Speaker 1: he can start the game. So that's it for the
Speaker 1: past catchers. And now you got a whole other headache
Speaker 1: with the running backs, right, So leavy on Bell may
Speaker 1: not go. We have two guys that are basically game
Speaker 1: time decisions, both guys nursing injuries and a running game
Speaker 1: that's been ineffective for most of the season for the Chiefs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the one game Glyde Edwards Layer the player here referencing
Speaker 1: along with Bell, who might not play. It sort of
Speaker 1: seems like he will. But this is one of the
Speaker 1: games where he was very effective in the regular season
Speaker 1: when he had uh the twenty six carries for a
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty one yards and uh he didn't score,
Speaker 1: but he had a monster game on the ground. He's
Speaker 1: at five thousand Bells at four point one K. We're
Speaker 1: just not gonna talk about Lavian Bell. His niece swelled
Speaker 1: up on Thursday's practice and he only played snaps. Also,
Speaker 1: he stinks, he sinks, so he's he's dead. To us,
Speaker 1: it's the rail will Darryl Williams comes in just under
Speaker 1: c e h at four point eight K. He actually
Speaker 1: scored in that first meeting he had he had twenties.
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs ran all over the Bills in that
Speaker 1: first game. Even Darwin Thompson had a few carries. So
Speaker 1: Darryll Williams might be the highest one running back on
Speaker 1: this late this week, especially if Edwards A layers sits
Speaker 1: every las sis, he probably will be. My angle is
Speaker 1: I might go Thompson little if it's just looking like
Speaker 1: Thompson and Williams active and healthy for the Chiefs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: if if Bella is out and out and bell is out.
Speaker 1: Even if he's in, he's you know, but he MUCKs
Speaker 1: up the works for for Thompson. You can't play Thompson
Speaker 1: if c h is active, No, you can't know not
Speaker 1: if if he's inactive, then of course Williams in elite
Speaker 1: level play. But Thompson would definitely be in play for me.
Speaker 1: Uh if c H out Williams is an A despite
Speaker 1: he'll be the highest zone running back on the slate.
Speaker 1: You have to run him, run him out there. The
Speaker 1: Bill or the Ravens running backs combined for an hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty yards on the ground against Buffalo last week.
Speaker 1: So c H in he's a C because he's you
Speaker 1: can't trust him to finish the game. He'd be at
Speaker 1: uber contrarian, high risk YRO Award play. Williams would be
Speaker 1: a B. And then but then if c H out
Speaker 1: Williams A and I give Thompson a pretty safe see.
Speaker 1: I think he would still see ten twelve touches in
Speaker 1: this game. When we come back, we'll go through the
Speaker 1: NFC side. Bucks taking on the Packers another Week six rematch,
Speaker 1: and that one was a one sided demolition of the Packers.
Speaker 1: By the Bucks will tell you what to expect when
Speaker 1: we come back. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charching
Speaker 1: and Brian Johnson with you. We just broke down Chiefs
Speaker 1: and Bills. Now, that was a painstaking process to break
Speaker 1: that game. The Chiefs man with a mess that was
Speaker 1: eighteen minutes of one game. Question marks abound the Chiefs absolutely,
Speaker 1: and for the Bills that Bucks take on the Packers.
Speaker 1: I don't put too much weight in the Week six matchup, Brian.
Speaker 1: It's just so long ago and it was so one sided.
Speaker 1: It was in Tampa and Tampa destroyed him. I don't
Speaker 1: think Davante Adams played. I believe you are correct and
Speaker 1: he was not in that game. Um. The weather is
Speaker 1: usually if factor for Green Bay at this time of year,
Speaker 1: but it's going to be unseasonably warm around thirty degrees
Speaker 1: that kick off. Not really any win to speak of
Speaker 1: a small chance of precipitation right around the freezing mark,
Speaker 1: which could manifest itself as snow, sleet, or sneat. Yes,
Speaker 1: you remember the Ice Bowl from nineteen seven. This could
Speaker 1: be the sneat Bowl. I'm hoping that's the case. The
Speaker 1: all you can sneak buffet I would love it. Let's
Speaker 1: start on the Tampa side and Ronald Jones is my
Speaker 1: favorite play of the week. I love it getting bad
Speaker 1: deja vu from this. Yeah. Now, anytime you're trying to
Speaker 1: guess the Bruce Arians timeshare, it's fraught with danger. Um.
Speaker 1: But it ought to be at Ronald Jones game and
Speaker 1: at I like him here. Now. Jones and Fournette split
Speaker 1: carries almost evenly last week, but Jones was clearly better.
Speaker 1: He averaged a full yard per carry more and Jones
Speaker 1: was the better but runner all year long, you can
Speaker 1: and and I think if we look at what Bruce
Speaker 1: Arians does as opposed to what he says, because he
Speaker 1: lies all the time um in games with both for
Speaker 1: Nette and Jones healthy, for Net only had more carries
Speaker 1: than Jones four times all year. That's it, just four Jones.
Speaker 1: When these guys are both healthy, and that's the case here,
Speaker 1: then Jones is likely to get the work. Now. The
Speaker 1: Packers run defense is improved from where it was early
Speaker 1: in the year, but it's still the easiest way to
Speaker 1: beat the Packers is on the ground, and I think
Speaker 1: that's gonna happen here. Cam Akers put up five yards
Speaker 1: per carry nine yards last week. The prior game, David
Speaker 1: Montgomery one hundred thirty three total yards. Game before that,
Speaker 1: Carolina's rotation of backs topped one hundred yards. We had
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry at nine yards. This almost every team gets
Speaker 1: something done on the ground against Green Bay and back
Speaker 1: to Rojoe versus four net real quick for those that
Speaker 1: don't remember, In the wild card round against Washington, Jones
Speaker 1: hurt himself in pregame warmups. No one had any idea
Speaker 1: and he got scratched late, which screwed over a lot
Speaker 1: of people. But it wasn't like he got benched or
Speaker 1: anything like that. That was injury, that's right, and he
Speaker 1: was coming back from that essentially last week when he
Speaker 1: looked better than four net. In the week six meeting
Speaker 1: between these teams, Jones ran for d yards and two scores.
Speaker 1: I'd like Jones bucks a grade um for four net
Speaker 1: if I you know, if I feel strongly about this,
Speaker 1: strongly about Ronald Jones. Obviously I don't like four net,
Speaker 1: and I'm fading him at fifty three D. He's more expensive,
Speaker 1: and I think that Jones is gonna take too many
Speaker 1: of his touches. And um, I think the only angle
Speaker 1: for four. Net is that he'll probably catch more passes
Speaker 1: because he almost always does. But more passes for him
Speaker 1: is like two yeah. And I'm not saying I think
Speaker 1: this is gonna happen. But if you were a believer
Speaker 1: that the Bucks are gonna win this game, and maybe
Speaker 1: quite convincingly with by running the ball, playing good defense,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be so opposed to starting both Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: running backs because if you believe they're gonna win, control
Speaker 1: of the ball, copair those two with the Tampa defense,
Speaker 1: you don't want a Green Bay running back if your
Speaker 1: belief is Tampa Bay is gonna And then on the
Speaker 1: other in the other game we have talked about, there's
Speaker 1: not many enticing names there, So if you're all in
Speaker 1: on the Bucks, I wouldn't be against playing both that
Speaker 1: it's an interesting strategy. Let's go to the passing game
Speaker 1: for Tom Brady, who comes in at six dollars. He
Speaker 1: is the cheapest of the four quarterbacks here. Green Bay's
Speaker 1: past defense has been terrific, which is a lot of
Speaker 1: why from December forward the Packers are allowing just two
Speaker 1: hundred six passing yards and zero point seven passing touchdowns
Speaker 1: per game. That's it. The best angle for Brady though,
Speaker 1: and there this is a very legitimate angle is the Packers.
Speaker 1: The Packers have one great cornerback, j R. Alexander. Then
Speaker 1: there's a pretty sizeable drop down to their second best
Speaker 1: corner back and that's their their slot corner, Chandon Sullivan.
Speaker 1: And then there's a massive drop down to Kevin King,
Speaker 1: who may not even go. They just signed Traymont Williams
Speaker 1: as a free agent. They may have to play him
Speaker 1: and start him in this game. I mean, this is
Speaker 1: a disaster. This is an extremely thin set of receivers.
Speaker 1: Here comes Brady with arguably four good wide receiver targets
Speaker 1: by himself, and that's with Antonio Brown Out, Mike Evans,
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin, Tyler Johnson, Scottie Miller. I mean, they've got
Speaker 1: because of the depth of targets that Brady's got, He's
Speaker 1: always got somebody to find. So I like, I like
Speaker 1: Tom Brady at um jaire Alexander probably shuts down Mike Evans.
Speaker 1: And that's why I've only got to see great. By
Speaker 1: the way've got a B grade on Tom Brady, segrad
Speaker 1: and Mike Evans at fifty undred bucks um. He is
Speaker 1: the fourth most expensive wide receiver on the board. He
Speaker 1: had one catch last week, and he's gonna draw the
Speaker 1: most of Jaire Alexander. Now, Alexander is not a shadow
Speaker 1: they have sometimes they shadowed with him more at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the year, but really second half of the
Speaker 1: year he mostly played one side, but that is Evans
Speaker 1: is most common side. So I think Evan's gonna get
Speaker 1: more of Jaire Alexander, and that's the that's the trouble
Speaker 1: for Evans. You're really you're just you're shooting for a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Is one catch last week was a touchdown. He's the
Speaker 1: most targeted receiver from inside the ten yard line, so
Speaker 1: you're hoping for a touchdown with Evans, But I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't like banking on low volume, uh touchdown dependent guys,
Speaker 1: and Mike Evans fits that Bill C grade. For Chris
Speaker 1: Godwin's far more interesting. He's been a drop machine in
Speaker 1: the playoffs, so six drops in two games, and at
Speaker 1: some point you worry a little bit if he's lost
Speaker 1: Brady's confidence. But with Antonio brown out, I think he's
Speaker 1: still got to throw to Chris Godwin and he's got
Speaker 1: a somewhat favorable match up against the middle of the
Speaker 1: pack cornerback Chandon Sullivan over the past three games. Sullivan
Speaker 1: has a lot of his passes, the passes in his
Speaker 1: coverage to be completed. So I like Godwin. I've got
Speaker 1: to be grade on Godwin, and I would I would
Speaker 1: play him at less money than Evans. I would play
Speaker 1: him over Evans. I like that called potential future packer
Speaker 1: Chris Godwin might treat this as an audition, maybe Bay
Speaker 1: I have a lot of fun with Adams and Rogers.
Speaker 1: With Antonio Brown ruled out, Let's talk about Tyler Johnson
Speaker 1: bare minimum price of three grand. He will most often
Speaker 1: line up on the side of the field that's got
Speaker 1: either a hobbled Kevin King or a depth cornerback. That's
Speaker 1: a that's a sneaky play. Now you're I don't think
Speaker 1: he's gonna get big volume because he almost never does
Speaker 1: get big volume. But he might be able to turn
Speaker 1: three four five catches into something half decent against against
Speaker 1: the rattist of the Packers cornerbacks. I like it. And
Speaker 1: for those who don't know Tyler Johnson out of Minnesota,
Speaker 1: so weather it won't be a factor for him, and
Speaker 1: the hatred for Wisconsin is, so I like that we're
Speaker 1: leaving both of the tight ends on the bench, Gronkowski
Speaker 1: and Break. They're cheap, but they cannabalize each other. Break
Speaker 1: getting more targets, Gronks running more routes. I don't want
Speaker 1: to touch it. Let's go to the green Bay side.
Speaker 1: I have a series of a great for the Packers,
Speaker 1: and I want to be in there all in the
Speaker 1: passing game. Let's begin with Aaron Rodgers at the third
Speaker 1: highest price out of the four quarterbacks and a full
Speaker 1: thousand dollars less than Patrick Mahomes. But I like him
Speaker 1: here at Green Bay runs what is normally a balanced offense,
Speaker 1: but Tampa see's the highest passing rate in the NFL.
Speaker 1: All plays are passes, and this is not that complicated.
Speaker 1: Rogers is the m v P. It's very hard to
Speaker 1: run on the Bucks, and the Buccaneers are far easier
Speaker 1: to pass on, especially right and he just got done
Speaker 1: torching the Rams far better secondary. So I think I
Speaker 1: think Rogers is an A grade. If I were gonna,
Speaker 1: if I were gonna build one lineup, it would be
Speaker 1: built around Aaron Rodgers. Um, let's go to Davante Adams
Speaker 1: at eight thousand You'll have to pay a very heavy
Speaker 1: premium here, but I think Adams is probably worth it.
Speaker 1: He just put up a solid game against a dramatically
Speaker 1: better ram secondary and he'll he'll see both of the
Speaker 1: corners that Tampa's got, Jamal Deane and Carlton Davis. Between them,
Speaker 1: they've allowed eleven touchdowns on the season. That is a lot.
Speaker 1: Dean allowed seventy yards in the wild card game. Davis
Speaker 1: has allowed seventy two and ninety two yards in the
Speaker 1: two playoff games. Those are bad numbers for any one cornerback.
Speaker 1: So I I like Adams here, and if you're gonna
Speaker 1: splurge on one expensive player, I think Adams has got
Speaker 1: to be in that conversation. He did play in this game.
Speaker 1: It was his first game back from injury. He had
Speaker 1: six catches for sixty one yards on ten targets in
Speaker 1: weeks he got hurt in week two, came back for
Speaker 1: this game and we got it um and then he
Speaker 1: scored in every other game afterwards. Essentially, Adams is not
Speaker 1: my only a grade in the passing game, though, Alan
Speaker 1: Lazard at forty two hundred dollars is one of my
Speaker 1: favorite players of the week. He runs predominantly from the slot.
Speaker 1: Rematches up against Sean Murphy Bunting, he has allowed seven
Speaker 1: touchdowns in his coverage. Only one cornerback in the entire
Speaker 1: league allowed more than seven touchdowns in his coverage. Sean
Speaker 1: Murphy Bunting allowed seven. The passer rating on ball thrown
Speaker 1: in his coverage on twenty seven for Sean Murphy Bunting,
Speaker 1: the path of least resistance runs right through the slot
Speaker 1: to Alan Lazarus. Then should have had two touchdowns. Last
Speaker 1: week the Alligator armed a long one that he should
Speaker 1: have had before a monster game. Then another great play
Speaker 1: and I think the only other play if you're not
Speaker 1: gonna go Travis Kelsey for half the price hundred bucks.
Speaker 1: Robert Tonyan love him here. He had twelve touchdowns on
Speaker 1: the season. He's been fantasy relevant in seven of the
Speaker 1: past eight games. Since December, the Bucks have given up
Speaker 1: big games to Logan Thomas. Last week IRV Smith Hayden
Speaker 1: Hurst hated Nurst again. This is justin since December, the
Speaker 1: Bucks are bottom seven in tight end catches and bottom
Speaker 1: seven in tight end touchdowns allowed during the regular season.
Speaker 1: I think Tanyan is your is the other place to
Speaker 1: pivot to tight end. So would you rather have Tonyan
Speaker 1: at thirty six hundred or are you spending on Kelsey Man?
Speaker 1: Tony is way too cheap. He's so wrongly priced at
Speaker 1: It's not like you really need to struggle to save salary.
Speaker 1: But if you don't, if you take Tonyon over Kelsey,
Speaker 1: you certainly can throw a lion together with Adams, Digs
Speaker 1: and probably Tyreek kill all in there. Right, that's so
Speaker 1: compelling for me. So that's why I'm playing Tonyon. Uh
Speaker 1: market last receiver I'll mentioned he gets just a C
Speaker 1: grade Marcus Velda scantling as you're all or nothing guy.
Speaker 1: When he doesn't score, you basically get nothing. He's very
Speaker 1: lightly targeted, and so he's got to turn a couple
Speaker 1: of catches into something special. Um, it's possible he will.
Speaker 1: This team, as I mentioned, does give up a lot
Speaker 1: of wide receiver touchdowns, so maybe he will. But thirty
Speaker 1: nine hundred bucks to me can be spent better places. Um,
Speaker 1: not that it's a lot of money. Then let's go
Speaker 1: to the running backs. Aaron Jones is one of my
Speaker 1: least favorite plays of the week. He is the most
Speaker 1: expensive runner on the entire slate, and he has the
Speaker 1: hardest matchup. Now, you may look at Alvin Kamara's eight
Speaker 1: I've rushing yards last week and go, well, that's eighty
Speaker 1: five yards against Tampa's defense. Boy, don't read into that.
Speaker 1: It's a trap. Tampa was number one rushing yards allowed,
Speaker 1: number one in rushing yards per carry allowed. And keep
Speaker 1: in mind for Kimara, no Latavius Murray, so he got
Speaker 1: all that extra work. Now, Aaron Jones last week I
Speaker 1: sat here in this podcast and said, they've been saving
Speaker 1: him from the playoffs, are gonna run him like crazy?
Speaker 1: Well he's still ended. He ended up. He they still
Speaker 1: only gave him forty three percent of the carries, which
Speaker 1: is bizarre. But he still got to like ninety yards.
Speaker 1: He had a good game and whenever he said and done.
Speaker 1: But the fact that they still didn't use him that
Speaker 1: way was was really weird. That they didn't use him
Speaker 1: a lot. I noticed. And then to see A J.
Speaker 1: Dillon even before Jamal Williams and the like the second
Speaker 1: drives like, oh man, strange. Right, Now here's the other
Speaker 1: recent you don't want Aaron Jones. So Alvin Camara finds
Speaker 1: his way to eighty five rushing yards last week Saints
Speaker 1: Los by double digits. The only other team that ran
Speaker 1: successfully on Tampa all year long were the Vikings with
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook. They lost by double digits. It doesn't pay
Speaker 1: to one on the Bucks. There's no upside to it.
Speaker 1: You lose by double digits if you go through whatever
Speaker 1: it takes to establish the run against the Bucks. So
Speaker 1: don't do it. Um and Aaron Jones is a bench
Speaker 1: grade for me as the most expensive runner on the board.
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams is a C grade at He'll be tempting
Speaker 1: because he's affordable, And if A. J. Dylan misses the game,
Speaker 1: I think Dylan's gonna go. Then maybe Williams gets like
Speaker 1: half the work. But still, for all the reasons I
Speaker 1: mentioned before, if I don't like Jones, I can't much
Speaker 1: like Williams, even if he is cheaper. Four teams is
Speaker 1: not a lot. Two games is not a lot for
Speaker 1: a sleep. But this is probably the worst running back
Speaker 1: menu I've ever seen. It's pretty pretty brutal. I'd put
Speaker 1: air I, I would put Ronald Jones on my menu.
Speaker 1: I think I think are out there. I think that's
Speaker 1: the guy. That's the guy I'm gonna take. And uh again,
Speaker 1: I'm worried about if I had to, just like, if
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stack one of these games, it's probably the
Speaker 1: NFC side. I fear the a f C game being
Speaker 1: more defensive, more defensive, little scoring that the over under
Speaker 1: is a little bit higher, and uh yeah then just
Speaker 1: like Singletary and the Buffalo defense seems like a nice
Speaker 1: pairent to go along with Rod Joe. I think that
Speaker 1: is a where i'd start my lineup build if I
Speaker 1: had one lineup. Yeah, it's like those two backs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: as much as you can. But he'll be on the
Speaker 1: field though, that's all you know. He's gonna be. I
Speaker 1: kind of like your Jones for net angle but for
Speaker 1: nets awfully price, Yeah, that's a little too high. I
Speaker 1: think it is too high. I don't I don't love it. Um,
Speaker 1: thank you for listening. We will do We will do
Speaker 1: this same breakdown in two weeks for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: We'll have a show in between there that won't be
Speaker 1: this this kind of breakdown, but we'll talk about you know,
Speaker 1: all you know various things over bow. You have Pro
Speaker 1: Bowl Fantasy for Pro Bowl, gross, I don't even what,
Speaker 1: I don't even know what the format is This year
Speaker 1: they're not playing a game. Obviously, I don't have no idea.
Speaker 1: I don't either. It's probably for the best that we
Speaker 1: don't know. Thank you for listening. Appreciate everybody that has
Speaker 1: made it to the end of thirty five minutes of
Speaker 1: breaking down two games. Very impressive. Normally during our show,
Speaker 1: every game is four to six minutes of breakdown. So yeah,
Speaker 1: once ago, about like four minutes, I started to look around.
Speaker 1: I'm like, I kind of shut up now exactly. We
Speaker 1: just we're at the thirty five ish minute mark and
Speaker 1: we did too of two games. People are clinging to
Speaker 1: their football. They won't mind. I think you're right about that.
Speaker 1: Talk to you a week everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is
Speaker 1: a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from
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