WEBVTT - Why One Of The Most Successful Quant Funds Decided To Create Its Own Video Game

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of The Thoughts Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal. So, Joe, I

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<v Speaker 1>think we have to come clean about this particular episode.

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<v Speaker 1>We do have to come clean before we get into

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<v Speaker 1>the discussion. There's a big, what pound gorilla in the

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<v Speaker 1>room that we have to address. Yeah, So the gorilla

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<v Speaker 1>is that last week we recorded an amazing podcast all

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<v Speaker 1>about technology and its role in finance and the broader world,

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<v Speaker 1>and uh, then we were hit by our own technological snaffoo.

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<v Speaker 1>It's right, So we recorded the greatest episode in the

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<v Speaker 1>history of the entire podcast. It was amazing, one of

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<v Speaker 1>a kind, the kind of conversation that you dream of,

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<v Speaker 1>and then unfortunately the audio was bad and the entire

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<v Speaker 1>thing was ruined. Yes, something happened with the computer. The

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<v Speaker 1>computer said no, we're still trying to figure out what

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<v Speaker 1>the exact issue was. But we learned an important lesson

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<v Speaker 1>about the pitfalls of technology, which gives us an excuse

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<v Speaker 1>to have our guest come on and try to have

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<v Speaker 1>the conversation all over again. So here we go. And

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<v Speaker 1>since this episode is kind of about the relationship between

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<v Speaker 1>technology and finance, we can at least pretend that there's

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<v Speaker 1>some lesson here and what happened to us that's relevant

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<v Speaker 1>to the episode. But really, like as we, I wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>really exaggerated when I said it was a great conversation,

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<v Speaker 1>and it would have been so hard to It would

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<v Speaker 1>have been very hard to try to replicate that or

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<v Speaker 1>to try to pretend we were just doing it again

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<v Speaker 1>for the first time. So just in the spirit of

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<v Speaker 1>honesty and recreating spontaneity, we wanted to get it out

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<v Speaker 1>of the way and be honest with our listeners that

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<v Speaker 1>this is a take two of that conversation. Who knows,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe it will be even better the second time around.

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<v Speaker 1>The important thing is we learned a lesson about backup

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<v Speaker 1>systems and tech. All right, So so here goes, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we can't yes, but we can't now pretend to do

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<v Speaker 1>our stick where we don't know. We're like, what are

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<v Speaker 1>we going to talk about this time? Is that would

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<v Speaker 1>really be contrived? After that? No, No, I wasn't going

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<v Speaker 1>to Okay, I'm going to just bring our guests on.

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<v Speaker 1>Our guest for today for the second time is Alfred Specter.

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<v Speaker 1>He's the chief technology officer of Two Sigma. He's also

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<v Speaker 1>a former engineer at Google, and he was also at

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<v Speaker 1>IBM for a very long time. He's an extremely well

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<v Speaker 1>known name in the realm of technology and also in

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<v Speaker 1>quant driven finance, and he's been nice enough to join

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<v Speaker 1>us yet again on odd lots. So thank you, Alfred,

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<v Speaker 1>really appreciate it. It's my pleasure to be here. And

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, the probability that there's a failure and

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<v Speaker 1>a technology system is somehow proportional to the seniority of

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<v Speaker 1>the person that's involved, So if we ever give a

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<v Speaker 1>demo to like a really seenior person, it's much more

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<v Speaker 1>likely to fail. I'm afraid I engendered the failure. No,

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<v Speaker 1>not at all. But you know, Tracy introduced you as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the CTO at Too Sigma. You don't seem

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<v Speaker 1>like a guy very who's very busy or anything. So

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure it was very easy for you to reschedule

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<v Speaker 1>your time just come back in for a second day,

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<v Speaker 1>very easy, indeed. But no, seriously, thank you very much

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<v Speaker 1>for coming back in and recreating last last week. The

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<v Speaker 1>way we started our conversation last week, and really the

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<v Speaker 1>first thing we discussed is that your firm, to Sigma,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a very well known Quantitative Hedge Fund is known

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<v Speaker 1>for having a game. You've created a video game and

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<v Speaker 1>created a competition for people all around the world to

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<v Speaker 1>come and design programs to master the game. So tell

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<v Speaker 1>us what is this game that you have people do

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<v Speaker 1>and why do you have people tried to upbeat it?

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<v Speaker 1>So a couple of years ago we introduced a game,

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<v Speaker 1>a programming competition game where first we within the company

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<v Speaker 1>and then eventually members of the general public got a

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<v Speaker 1>chance to write computer programs that would try to win

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<v Speaker 1>some strategy game. So in fact, it isn't really a

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<v Speaker 1>game of people, but it's a game of programming where

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<v Speaker 1>you program something to try to win. The game was

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<v Speaker 1>really successful internally and excited our engineers and got them

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<v Speaker 1>to think really deeply about algorithms and about how to

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<v Speaker 1>structure situations and game theoretic ways. And we decided to

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<v Speaker 1>launch it thinking that it would attract many programmers that

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<v Speaker 1>would then hear about two Sigma. Some of them might

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<v Speaker 1>actually decide they want to work with us. It would

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<v Speaker 1>also educate people because it requires very sophisticated and clever

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<v Speaker 1>programming to win these games, and we're really interested in

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<v Speaker 1>educating more and more people in tech it was sufficiently

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<v Speaker 1>successful the first year that we did it again, and

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<v Speaker 1>this year there were about six thousand players that wrote

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<v Speaker 1>bots as we call them, to play from about a

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<v Speaker 1>thousand organizations a hundred countries. In the top ten, there

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<v Speaker 1>were six nations represented, and in the top ten winners

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<v Speaker 1>of this two of them were high school students, amazingly enough,

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<v Speaker 1>one of them from Brooklyn and one from Argentina. So um,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to rethink all my questions from last week. No,

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<v Speaker 1>no new questions, okay, fresh questions. We we hear a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about the competition for talent in technology. You obviously

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<v Speaker 1>have all these financial firms that want programmers, um coders,

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<v Speaker 1>people like that, and they're competing with tech firms in

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<v Speaker 1>Silicon Valley. How intense is that competition And what's the

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<v Speaker 1>benefit of trying to attract competition through something like this

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<v Speaker 1>game versus more traditional enticements to the financial industry, like

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<v Speaker 1>just offering people say a lot of money. Well, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>first and foremost, what we're seeing is technology playing a

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<v Speaker 1>bigger and bigger role in almost every industry. I refer

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<v Speaker 1>to that as CS plus X for all X. So

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<v Speaker 1>the innovation is occurring at that intersection of computing and X.

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<v Speaker 1>It's certainly happening now in finance, but I think what

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<v Speaker 1>comes first is technological excellence. So we see ourselves as

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<v Speaker 1>having to play in exactly the same markets for talent

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<v Speaker 1>then tech companies in many domains, and I think that

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<v Speaker 1>will occur even beyond finance and healthcare and education, etcetera

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<v Speaker 1>in the future, this kind of a global technology community.

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<v Speaker 1>We try to appeal to that in having a culture

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<v Speaker 1>internally that values technology, that values algorithms, and values careful thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>values terrific engineering, and we try to portray that externally

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<v Speaker 1>so that people know that's the kind of firm they're joining.

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<v Speaker 1>So tell us about the game specifically, what kind of

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<v Speaker 1>game is it? So the game is a turn based

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<v Speaker 1>strategy game. So there this year somewhere either two or

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<v Speaker 1>four players on the game. When the game starts, the

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<v Speaker 1>players have three ships each and outer space, and the

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<v Speaker 1>goal is to have the ships take over a large

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<v Speaker 1>number of planets and basically take over the galaxy that

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<v Speaker 1>they're part of. Uh. It's really simple in a way

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<v Speaker 1>that the ships can really do only three things. They

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<v Speaker 1>can move a certain number of positions, they can land

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<v Speaker 1>on a planet, and they can take off from the planet,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's some things that happen when they encounter other ships,

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<v Speaker 1>and when they get on the planet, how they gain strength,

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<v Speaker 1>and when more ships are created. But there are only

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<v Speaker 1>three commands to do it. On the other hand, there

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<v Speaker 1>are many, many possible positions in the galaxy, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>what makes the game interesting. There is a huge combinatorial explosion,

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<v Speaker 1>as we say, of moves that you can make at

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<v Speaker 1>any given time. So, but it's extremely challenging to write

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<v Speaker 1>a program to win in this galaxy. Compare the complexity

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<v Speaker 1>of this game to a sort of move based game

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<v Speaker 1>like we would like chess, for example. So in chess,

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<v Speaker 1>the thing we think about, despite all the complexity of

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<v Speaker 1>doing it, is that there's only one piece you move

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<v Speaker 1>at a time, and that piece, depending upon the piece,

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<v Speaker 1>can do different kinds of things. But we call it

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<v Speaker 1>a branching factor of thirty five. At each move in

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<v Speaker 1>the game, you can do about thirty five things, and Haylight,

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<v Speaker 1>the branching factor is ten, followed by zeros, so a

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<v Speaker 1>very very large number of moves. So it's essentially impossible

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<v Speaker 1>for human to play, but a bot can play it

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<v Speaker 1>really well because computers, as we know, are pretty fast.

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<v Speaker 1>So people are playing this game, which bots have been

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<v Speaker 1>most successful and what types of strategies have they been pursuing.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a really interesting question. In the game. You

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<v Speaker 1>might think that the approach should be that people should

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<v Speaker 1>sit down. Players should sit down and think hard about

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<v Speaker 1>should they go to a near planet that's very large,

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<v Speaker 1>should they go to a distant planet that's smaller. Should

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<v Speaker 1>they hide out in a corner and wait for other

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<v Speaker 1>players to interfere with each other and the like. That's

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<v Speaker 1>an algorithmic approach to the game. Or there's the question

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<v Speaker 1>of should we be doing what say the deep mind

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<v Speaker 1>people in that Google subsidiary in London are doing and

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<v Speaker 1>building AI programs that play the game against each other

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<v Speaker 1>and learn the right approaches by essentially trial and error

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<v Speaker 1>and by seeing which wins both approaches are used in

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<v Speaker 1>the game. The top players, the top say thirty or

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<v Speaker 1>forty players used algorithmic approaches where they really thought things through. However,

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<v Speaker 1>now this year some of the top players in the

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<v Speaker 1>top fifty or sixty actually built very simple bots with

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<v Speaker 1>very small amounts of code that actually learned by playing

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<v Speaker 1>the game. Millions and millions of times, and it's quite

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<v Speaker 1>interesting that that actually is working in a world which

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<v Speaker 1>is this difficult. And of course you mentioned the Google

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<v Speaker 1>deep Mind endeavor. It's important in the history of chess computers.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the two different approaches. So back in the

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<v Speaker 1>nineties when we think of Cass pro Verse deep Blue

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<v Speaker 1>Deep Blue at the whole library of games and all

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<v Speaker 1>these grand masters training it, and the new generation just

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<v Speaker 1>learns chess from day one and it teaches itself without

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<v Speaker 1>any GMS or anything. And these days that new approach

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<v Speaker 1>is what works. But well, you're saying in this game,

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<v Speaker 1>you've seen some success from both approaches. That's right. In

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<v Speaker 1>the recent Alpha Go program that that deep Mind did,

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<v Speaker 1>they learned to be a world champion in chess in

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<v Speaker 1>four hours of play without much background. Really remarkable. This

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<v Speaker 1>game is considerably harder. So if we think about artificial intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>some artificial intelligence is just to try to duplicate what

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<v Speaker 1>people do. So like an early problem in AI was

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<v Speaker 1>digit recognition. Could you read, say, the numbers on a

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<v Speaker 1>check automatically? That was AI just a few years back.

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<v Speaker 1>That was a very hard problem. Now then another problem

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<v Speaker 1>in AI is to do something that humans do, but

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<v Speaker 1>do it better. So that's like self driving cars. You

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<v Speaker 1>can easily imagine that it should be possible. Maybe it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to build a self driving car because we can

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<v Speaker 1>do it pretty well. Then there are these questions of

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<v Speaker 1>things which we can't even do, and that's a game

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<v Speaker 1>like hay Light. Can we get a I s to

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<v Speaker 1>do that? And there are implications of course in financial

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<v Speaker 1>markets were all kind of challenged by predictions and optimization

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<v Speaker 1>and financial markets. Maybe it's very much the case that

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<v Speaker 1>these AI systems, in the fullness of time, will do

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<v Speaker 1>things we ourselves can't even think of doing today, and

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<v Speaker 1>in making a better economic system. So I'm always curious

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to these bots that are essentially self

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<v Speaker 1>learning the game, how good are they dealing with spontaneity

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<v Speaker 1>or the unpredictability of other people's decisions or say, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>just a human playing the game who might make a mistake.

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<v Speaker 1>Do they always assume that the other players are a

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<v Speaker 1>rational or can they react in some some way to

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<v Speaker 1>the unexpected. I guess I think it's a really good question.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know the answer, and I think it's a

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<v Speaker 1>subject of research now. To understand that. Two things come

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<v Speaker 1>to mind. One is I saw some of the early

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<v Speaker 1>newscasts on the early go playing programs, and people thought

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<v Speaker 1>they were really creative and doing things that hadn't been

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<v Speaker 1>seen before. I'm not a go aficionado, but I believe

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<v Speaker 1>that to be true. The second is, it's certainly the

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<v Speaker 1>case that many think that great creativity is kind of

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<v Speaker 1>serendipity or almost a kind of randomness that happens. And

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<v Speaker 1>of course, if we think that, and we think that

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<v Speaker 1>great creativity comes of kind of the random ideas that

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<v Speaker 1>maybe one of our strange colleagues might have some days

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<v Speaker 1>that can be programmed. So obviously, humans can't play this game, heylite,

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<v Speaker 1>It's way too complicated. Can humans appreciate the game like

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<v Speaker 1>in the same way like if you watching two bods

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<v Speaker 1>play against each other? Is it understandable enough so that

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<v Speaker 1>someone could look at the game and sort of grasp

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<v Speaker 1>what they're doing? Absolutely. A couple of things about that.

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<v Speaker 1>Number one is that if humans are going to want

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<v Speaker 1>to program bots for the game, they have to find

0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.640
<v Speaker 1>it entertaining. So it has to be an interesting objective

0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.080
<v Speaker 1>that they're trying to achieve, and they have to be

0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.640
<v Speaker 1>able to watch and understand what their body is doing,

0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:45.120
<v Speaker 1>and it's quite exciting, so you need that for the game.

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:48.559
<v Speaker 1>And then secondly, we in fact saw that in reality,

0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 1>many people have put up plays of the game on

0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:54.840
<v Speaker 1>YouTube and other places where you can watch really interesting

0:13:54.880 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 1>games and how they unfold, and you get to see

0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:01.160
<v Speaker 1>the strategy. For example, what may happen is a player

0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:03.599
<v Speaker 1>a players bought have to be careful. How I say this,

0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 1>A players bought may realize that it has very little

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.840
<v Speaker 1>chance of winning, but perhaps if it goes hides in

0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 1>a corner, the other players may defeed each other and

0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.960
<v Speaker 1>it might come in second. And that's a strategy that

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:20.600
<v Speaker 1>happened in the first round of the game. That bot Yeah, well,

0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 1>the in fact you do. We do tend to personify

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.600
<v Speaker 1>these things over time, which is another interesting aspect of

0:14:26.640 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 1>how humans deal with computers. But we we didn't see

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.840
<v Speaker 1>this behavior until the last week or so of Halight

0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.320
<v Speaker 1>version one, and then all of a sudden, we call

0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:39.480
<v Speaker 1>it an emergent behavior. It emerged from the game. We

0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:43.320
<v Speaker 1>never anticipated that that happened. And there are other other

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 1>kinds of strategies that also occur as well in the game.

0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.680
<v Speaker 1>So you've been running, uh, two rounds of this game

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:54.960
<v Speaker 1>now Halight right, Um, you're in your second iteration. Have

0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 1>you ever recruited anyone that was playing the game? Has

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:03.640
<v Speaker 1>it actually translated into tangible recruitment benefits for you? Yes,

0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:07.120
<v Speaker 1>happy to say that we have a tremendous employee that

0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.000
<v Speaker 1>came out of Halight, one who's working with us on

0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 1>our London office, and we have many more people that

0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.720
<v Speaker 1>remind us that they know about two Sigma because of Halight.

0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 1>So it's valuable from a marketing perspective as well. So

0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 1>I think it's something that will be around and helping

0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.920
<v Speaker 1>us for a long term. In fact, I met a

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>college intern who did Halight as a high school student

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.640
<v Speaker 1>and said that she knew about two Sigma because she

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 1>did it as a high school student. I want to

0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 1>turn to more just the you know, talk about UH

0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:43.760
<v Speaker 1>quantitative finance and some of the lessons you've learned before

0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 1>we do though, and before we move off the game.

0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.720
<v Speaker 1>When we in our first attempt at recording this episode,

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:50.920
<v Speaker 1>at the end, you said, oh, you wanted to talk

0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:52.960
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more about some of the high school

0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:57.000
<v Speaker 1>students who had done so well in the game, and

0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:58.920
<v Speaker 1>so I don't want to forget to do that this time.

0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 1>Tell us a little bit more out how high school

0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.320
<v Speaker 1>students are able to who they are, how can they

0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 1>compete with the top computer scientists in programming at So

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.200
<v Speaker 1>let's just start with one thing first. So you have

0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:13.320
<v Speaker 1>to design a game so that it's easy to get

0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 1>started with. Right. That's a nice thing about Checkers, right

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.080
<v Speaker 1>for little kids. You can learn the rules quickly, and

0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.040
<v Speaker 1>yet it's pretty sophisticated to play it. Well, the same

0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.840
<v Speaker 1>thing happens here. You want to build a game that's

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.800
<v Speaker 1>easy to get started with, but that has a really

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:31.440
<v Speaker 1>really long path, maybe in essentially an infinite path towards perfection,

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:33.760
<v Speaker 1>so maybe there can be no absolute perfection. You can

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 1>play a very very long time, then it's a much

0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:39.960
<v Speaker 1>better game. So we even wrote a paper about how

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 1>to design these games, called the Design and Implementation of

0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:47.760
<v Speaker 1>Modern Online Programming Competitions. So, again going back to the

0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:51.360
<v Speaker 1>ease of starting, we realized that since they're easy to

0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:55.400
<v Speaker 1>start playing, they're accessible to high school students. So we

0:16:55.440 --> 0:16:57.840
<v Speaker 1>went out and did a bunch of hackathons around the

0:16:57.880 --> 0:17:00.720
<v Speaker 1>New York City area and some other places and had

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:03.040
<v Speaker 1>quite a bit of acceptance. We had almost a thousand

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 1>high school students doing this worldwide, and we learned about

0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 1>it because a teacher in Texas initially wrote to us

0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:12.960
<v Speaker 1>and said that it was a great opportunity for members

0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:16.280
<v Speaker 1>of his class to start programming. And we think that

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:18.919
<v Speaker 1>early outreach is very important. It's also a core value

0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:21.400
<v Speaker 1>of the firm because the co chairs of the firm

0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:25.359
<v Speaker 1>are very involved in mathematics education for young kids and

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 1>also for programming educations via the M I T. Scratch

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:33.840
<v Speaker 1>initiative for middle schoolers and uh and high school students.

0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:36.720
<v Speaker 1>So just one last thing on that one. I gotta

0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:39.960
<v Speaker 1>just mentioned. So this, this this kid in Brooklyn actually

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.679
<v Speaker 1>had an article written about him in the Brooklyn newspaper.

0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.440
<v Speaker 1>So that was very exciting. I was called Brooklyn High

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.439
<v Speaker 1>Schooler takes on the World. We'll have to check that

0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>one up well, link to it when we post this. Yeah.

0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:56.919
<v Speaker 1>Uh So, widening the conversation out to finance and tech,

0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.000
<v Speaker 1>we were referring to Two Sigma earlier as a very

0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:04.600
<v Speaker 1>all known quant fund. I'm wondering what makes a quant

0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.480
<v Speaker 1>fund a quant fund, given that nowadays it feels like

0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.960
<v Speaker 1>pretty much every fund has some sort of systematic or

0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:16.600
<v Speaker 1>programmatic trading actually happening. Right, So two SIGMAS a tech

0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 1>firm that looks at many places where we can apply

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:24.120
<v Speaker 1>technology to optimize outcomes and finance. So we're also in insurance,

0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.520
<v Speaker 1>and we're in venture capital, etcetera. But certainly one of

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:30.440
<v Speaker 1>the things we do is investment management. As you mentioned,

0:18:30.840 --> 0:18:34.320
<v Speaker 1>I think what differentiates us is number one, the deep

0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:38.240
<v Speaker 1>and long term technical talent that we've had. After all,

0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:40.879
<v Speaker 1>we were started by an m I T pH D

0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.439
<v Speaker 1>and AI about fifteen or more years ago. David Siegel

0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:48.680
<v Speaker 1>and John Overdeck, the other co chair, is a real

0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:53.439
<v Speaker 1>expert mathematician, silver math OLYMPIAD and a statistician. So the

0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.560
<v Speaker 1>two of them really brought this to the firm quite

0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:59.959
<v Speaker 1>a while back and it's everywhere in the firm. Second

0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:02.320
<v Speaker 1>is we do have scale in this. We've been doing

0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:05.000
<v Speaker 1>it a long time, and I think that scale is

0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:09.680
<v Speaker 1>really something that differentiates us from many of our competitors,

0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:13.640
<v Speaker 1>right because, as we know, we've all heard every bank

0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.120
<v Speaker 1>CEO these days or at times they say, oh, we're

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:19.399
<v Speaker 1>really a software company that does banking, or really a

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:23.360
<v Speaker 1>tech company. But you have a long experience with companies

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:28.200
<v Speaker 1>that are undisputably tech companies. Google and IBM, one of

0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:31.560
<v Speaker 1>the biggest differences in terms of culture that you see

0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:36.040
<v Speaker 1>at a place like two Sigma versus your experience at Google,

0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:41.800
<v Speaker 1>I think probably if you could name one, it's that

0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 1>technology is viewed at least as the equal, if not

0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:51.119
<v Speaker 1>the driver, of the core business. So at our firm,

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 1>there's no question that those of us that do computer science,

0:19:54.880 --> 0:20:00.199
<v Speaker 1>mathematics and statistics are viewed by almost everyone as the

0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:03.040
<v Speaker 1>basis of the firm's success. Now, of course we need

0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:05.000
<v Speaker 1>and we're very happy to have the folks that do

0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:07.840
<v Speaker 1>compliance and legal and all the other activities that are

0:20:07.880 --> 0:20:10.960
<v Speaker 1>needed in the firm, but it's really a technology and

0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:14.520
<v Speaker 1>math and statistics first operation. I think the same thing

0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 1>is true at the really successful tech companies as well,

0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:20.679
<v Speaker 1>and became frankly less true at the tech companies that

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.840
<v Speaker 1>didn't do so well. It is kind of interesting that

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:28.760
<v Speaker 1>if you think at places where algorithms and programmatic strategies

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.560
<v Speaker 1>might be really interesting to do, uh, the finance companies

0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:38.200
<v Speaker 1>should theoretically be really really intriguing, because banks and insurers

0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.679
<v Speaker 1>have these realms and reams of data that should be

0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:45.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting for anyone with the technology background. But it almost

0:20:45.760 --> 0:20:48.280
<v Speaker 1>feels like it's taken a little bit of time for

0:20:48.320 --> 0:20:50.440
<v Speaker 1>people to catch on to that, and it's only now

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:52.800
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of the financial firms are making this

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:56.879
<v Speaker 1>really big push. Why do you think it's taken a

0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.719
<v Speaker 1>bit of time. So one is, of course, finance use

0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:04.200
<v Speaker 1>technology very early on, right, It was among the earliest

0:21:04.280 --> 0:21:07.840
<v Speaker 1>users just to computerize account records and transfers and such.

0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:12.040
<v Speaker 1>So perhaps it's the case that because finance used a

0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:16.919
<v Speaker 1>lot of technology, there became kind of a installed base

0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:21.760
<v Speaker 1>of old technology that actually acted as an impediment to modernization.

0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:25.199
<v Speaker 1>So I think that is one fact. So those of

0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:28.160
<v Speaker 1>us that are newer in the business have an advantage.

0:21:28.200 --> 0:21:31.200
<v Speaker 1>An example, of course, if you look at say online advertising,

0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:33.960
<v Speaker 1>it didn't exist more than a couple of decades ago.

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.640
<v Speaker 1>That's when it all began, so there can't be an

0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:40.040
<v Speaker 1>installed base from the nineteen sixties. So I think we

0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:44.119
<v Speaker 1>didn't have, if you will, negative inertia in new fields,

0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 1>and we we did have some of that in finance.

0:21:46.680 --> 0:21:49.760
<v Speaker 1>The second is, I think it's important to understand what

0:21:49.840 --> 0:21:53.720
<v Speaker 1>we should be doing in finance, and that's making financial

0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:58.600
<v Speaker 1>systems economic systems work better. So all of us like capitalism,

0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:02.120
<v Speaker 1>we like decentralization, and we like optimization of the firm,

0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:03.800
<v Speaker 1>and we all hope that it will lead to pray,

0:22:03.880 --> 0:22:07.920
<v Speaker 1>to optimality and an efficient operation of society that produces

0:22:07.960 --> 0:22:10.680
<v Speaker 1>lots of goods and services for all. But we all

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:14.560
<v Speaker 1>know that if we're not careful, inventories build up, or

0:22:14.600 --> 0:22:17.880
<v Speaker 1>prices get out of whack, or people have irrational exuberance

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:21.600
<v Speaker 1>and the like. I believe with the proper application of data,

0:22:21.720 --> 0:22:25.119
<v Speaker 1>the proper application of mathematics and statistics, we can do

0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:28.960
<v Speaker 1>a better job of running these economic systems. It's not easy,

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:31.199
<v Speaker 1>but I think that's really exciting. And I have a

0:22:31.200 --> 0:22:34.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of success in attracting technical people to the firm

0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.920
<v Speaker 1>because that's what I think we're doing. Do you proactively

0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:41.520
<v Speaker 1>think about exactly what you said about building up some

0:22:41.600 --> 0:22:44.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of legacy code base or some sort of legacy

0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:47.280
<v Speaker 1>set of systems that ten years from now you'll still

0:22:47.480 --> 0:22:49.359
<v Speaker 1>be hewing too, even if it's not the state of

0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:52.840
<v Speaker 1>the art. I worry about it all the time. All

0:22:52.880 --> 0:22:56.640
<v Speaker 1>of us in technology worry or should be worrying about

0:22:57.000 --> 0:23:00.640
<v Speaker 1>the legacy that we will create. And it's a very

0:23:00.640 --> 0:23:03.639
<v Speaker 1>difficult problem. If you think in the United States, they're literally,

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:07.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, millions and millions of programmers writing computer code

0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:10.680
<v Speaker 1>all the time. All of that code will someday get old,

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 1>and I'm afraid it will look like the substructure underneath

0:23:14.080 --> 0:23:17.200
<v Speaker 1>Lexington Avenue out here sometime and make it very difficult

0:23:17.240 --> 0:23:19.760
<v Speaker 1>to build the next subway. But in banking, you still

0:23:19.840 --> 0:23:23.400
<v Speaker 1>hear stories about some of the banks having, um, how

0:23:23.400 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 1>do you say coble or cobble This programming language from

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:29.119
<v Speaker 1>that stemmed from I think it was World War two,

0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:32.840
<v Speaker 1>basically invented in the nineteen forties and nineteen fifties. And

0:23:32.880 --> 0:23:35.680
<v Speaker 1>if you're one of the programmers who can still actually

0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:40.520
<v Speaker 1>code in this ancient, ancient software language, apparently you can

0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:43.080
<v Speaker 1>earn big money. So it does seem to be something

0:23:43.119 --> 0:23:47.920
<v Speaker 1>of an issue. So common business oriented language COBAL. Yeah,

0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:51.720
<v Speaker 1>I think it comes probably from late fifties and sixties. Uh,

0:23:51.880 --> 0:23:54.400
<v Speaker 1>not World War two, but you're on the right track there.

0:23:55.080 --> 0:23:57.959
<v Speaker 1>And yeah, there's a lot of cobaal code around and

0:23:58.160 --> 0:24:02.520
<v Speaker 1>some of it was written by employees who retired, maintained

0:24:02.560 --> 0:24:05.919
<v Speaker 1>by the employees they trained who have now retired, and

0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:08.639
<v Speaker 1>the next generation is maintaining that. And you can just

0:24:08.680 --> 0:24:11.120
<v Speaker 1>think of the engineering challenge do you rewrite it all?

0:24:11.800 --> 0:24:13.760
<v Speaker 1>But do you even know what it does. It's a

0:24:13.840 --> 0:24:16.880
<v Speaker 1>real challenge for organizations to deal with that. I don't

0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 1>believe we have any coball. In fact, I'm certain we

0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:24.280
<v Speaker 1>have no coball co ball free. One of the things

0:24:24.320 --> 0:24:27.280
<v Speaker 1>you hear a lot uh Silicon Valley people talk about

0:24:27.359 --> 0:24:30.480
<v Speaker 1>is the importance of culture as the enduring mode or

0:24:30.520 --> 0:24:34.359
<v Speaker 1>the enduring sustainable advantage, and that with whatever else that

0:24:34.400 --> 0:24:36.720
<v Speaker 1>goes on, as long as they have a superior culture,

0:24:37.440 --> 0:24:40.720
<v Speaker 1>that that allows them to beat the competition. How do

0:24:40.760 --> 0:24:44.840
<v Speaker 1>you guarantee that that's in place at two sigma? And

0:24:44.920 --> 0:24:47.440
<v Speaker 1>when you think about all of these new funds or

0:24:47.520 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 1>legacy funds that sort of want the new quant unit,

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:52.440
<v Speaker 1>or banks trying to get into quant stuff, how much

0:24:52.440 --> 0:24:55.800
<v Speaker 1>do you see that as an advantage towards competitors who

0:24:55.840 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 1>would otherwise want to modify what you're doing. I think

0:24:59.600 --> 0:25:03.320
<v Speaker 1>in all of our organizations, talent is the first and

0:25:03.359 --> 0:25:08.480
<v Speaker 1>most important thing. So the talent today is possessing of

0:25:08.520 --> 0:25:13.400
<v Speaker 1>many opportunities because there's so many applications of advanced computer

0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:16.840
<v Speaker 1>science and machine learning and AI and the like. So

0:25:17.080 --> 0:25:20.680
<v Speaker 1>we really feel that that that culture is really important,

0:25:20.680 --> 0:25:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and the culture is it's hard to pin down exactly

0:25:23.440 --> 0:25:26.959
<v Speaker 1>what it is. Certainly, it's clear objectives for the business.

0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:30.160
<v Speaker 1>Certainly it's clear understanding of what we do for our

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:32.439
<v Speaker 1>clients and we have to understand what to do and

0:25:32.440 --> 0:25:35.600
<v Speaker 1>feel good about doing that really well. But it's also

0:25:36.000 --> 0:25:38.880
<v Speaker 1>soft and other things. Just if you think about the

0:25:39.040 --> 0:25:42.719
<v Speaker 1>boards where people were talking about Haylight, um, you know

0:25:42.760 --> 0:25:44.720
<v Speaker 1>you read them if you're an employee and you feel

0:25:44.720 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 1>good about working at the firm. One of them said,

0:25:47.200 --> 0:25:51.119
<v Speaker 1>it's an absolute blast discussing strategy, sharing replays and getting

0:25:51.119 --> 0:25:53.840
<v Speaker 1>excited about the games with friends. That's a great place

0:25:53.880 --> 0:25:57.080
<v Speaker 1>to work when you're doing that for the world. Last question,

0:25:57.160 --> 0:26:00.960
<v Speaker 1>unless Joe has more, what's your taught up tip when

0:26:01.000 --> 0:26:05.120
<v Speaker 1>it comes to avoiding technological errors such as the one

0:26:05.240 --> 0:26:08.800
<v Speaker 1>we experienced last week. Well, my original career as a

0:26:08.840 --> 0:26:13.919
<v Speaker 1>professor at Carnegie Mellon was in reliable distributed systems, and

0:26:14.000 --> 0:26:17.320
<v Speaker 1>that means that you have to have duplication at many

0:26:17.440 --> 0:26:20.320
<v Speaker 1>levels of the system. So how do you make sure

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:24.000
<v Speaker 1>you have two of everything in the chain. That's important

0:26:24.000 --> 0:26:27.280
<v Speaker 1>in financial markets, so that we have capacity to keep operating.

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:31.119
<v Speaker 1>That's probably important in games. We had many servers that

0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:33.800
<v Speaker 1>could run Haylight, so if one of them, god forbid,

0:26:33.840 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 1>had a problem, another one would keep running. In fact,

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:39.359
<v Speaker 1>we ran maybe tens or hundreds of servers simultaneously to

0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:41.920
<v Speaker 1>deal with the load. It's probably important in radio and

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:45.880
<v Speaker 1>podcast two. On that note, a perfect tip for all

0:26:45.920 --> 0:26:48.560
<v Speaker 1>of us to remember in all endeavors of our lives.

0:26:49.000 --> 0:26:51.640
<v Speaker 1>Alfred Spector, thank you very much for joining us. It's

0:26:51.680 --> 0:27:05.400
<v Speaker 1>my pleasure. I enjoyed doing it again, so I really

0:27:05.400 --> 0:27:07.439
<v Speaker 1>hope we don't have to bring Alfred in for a

0:27:07.480 --> 0:27:10.640
<v Speaker 1>third time. But it was really I like, I disagree.

0:27:10.680 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 1>I really I was gonna say, wait, wait, wait, I

0:27:13.840 --> 0:27:16.440
<v Speaker 1>was gonna say, it was really enjoyable speaking to him

0:27:16.520 --> 0:27:19.199
<v Speaker 1>for another thirty minutes. Agree, And if we have to

0:27:19.240 --> 0:27:20.879
<v Speaker 1>do it a third time, I'm looking forward to that

0:27:20.960 --> 0:27:23.960
<v Speaker 1>as well. But in all seriousness, I think we did

0:27:24.000 --> 0:27:27.320
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good job sort of recreating the magic of

0:27:27.359 --> 0:27:29.480
<v Speaker 1>that first one. No, I really I love that, and

0:27:29.560 --> 0:27:31.560
<v Speaker 1>I love like you know, we talk a lot about

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:35.520
<v Speaker 1>quantitative finance in our work, and we'll talk about various

0:27:35.560 --> 0:27:40.320
<v Speaker 1>well known strategies, momentum strategies and other uses of alternative data.

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:42.960
<v Speaker 1>We talked about that all the time and in our reporting,

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:46.080
<v Speaker 1>but we don't talk about the sort of what it

0:27:46.280 --> 0:27:48.639
<v Speaker 1>what needs to happen for people to come up with

0:27:48.680 --> 0:27:51.320
<v Speaker 1>that stuff, and the idea of that this stuff has

0:27:51.359 --> 0:27:54.560
<v Speaker 1>to happen through recruitment and culture and academic study. So

0:27:54.600 --> 0:27:58.399
<v Speaker 1>I feel like this is a interesting, unexplored facet of

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:00.760
<v Speaker 1>all this. Yeah, I absolutely agree. And I have to

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:02.960
<v Speaker 1>say some of the machine learning that we were talking

0:28:03.000 --> 0:28:06.560
<v Speaker 1>about this notion that bots, once they realized that they

0:28:06.800 --> 0:28:09.199
<v Speaker 1>were probably not going to win, or they didn't have

0:28:09.240 --> 0:28:11.280
<v Speaker 1>a good chance of winning, they went and they hid

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 1>in some obscure corner of the haylight galaxy. That kind

0:28:15.520 --> 0:28:18.399
<v Speaker 1>of strategy is just really fascinating, and it's amazing to

0:28:18.480 --> 0:28:23.159
<v Speaker 1>think that high schoolers potentially are coding that kind of

0:28:23.240 --> 0:28:25.639
<v Speaker 1>learning into the system. And the fact that in the

0:28:25.720 --> 0:28:28.000
<v Speaker 1>early rounds of the game they weren't doing that and

0:28:28.040 --> 0:28:32.040
<v Speaker 1>that they learned that sort of adaptive approach over time

0:28:32.119 --> 0:28:34.960
<v Speaker 1>is really fascinating. Does it make you think of Skynet?

0:28:35.160 --> 0:28:39.080
<v Speaker 1>Makes me think of skynet a little bit, definitely. Okay,

0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:42.120
<v Speaker 1>all right, this has been another edition of the Odd

0:28:42.160 --> 0:28:45.160
<v Speaker 1>Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on

0:28:45.200 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Tracy Alloway, and I'm Joe Why isn't all.

0:28:48.360 --> 0:28:51.080
<v Speaker 1>You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart and

0:28:51.120 --> 0:28:55.200
<v Speaker 1>be sure to follow our hard working producer Topur Foreheads

0:28:55.680 --> 0:28:58.640
<v Speaker 1>at foreheads T, as well as the head of podcast

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:02.959
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg, princesco be at Francesca today. Thanks for listening.