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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen houndy, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the.

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Speaker 2: Chick As Block the College Football World Standard. Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 2: he stumbled and football the lateral turn a counter on

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Speaker 2: the inside, get you the leading.

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Speaker 4: Table up the deal to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 2: It's the size of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 4: Week twelve college football betting preview. I'm stucky enjoining me

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Speaker 4: as always mister Collin Wilson for the Lovely tin Horn Weekend.

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Speaker 2: I love tin horn. I love shit running through a

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Speaker 2: ten horn. I think Saban loves it too.

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Speaker 3: You all don't remember the Georgia Southern game, do you?

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Speaker 3: I don't think we had a guy on that field

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Speaker 3: that didn't play in the NFL. And about four or

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Speaker 3: five of them were first round draft picks, and they

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Speaker 3: run through our ass like shit through a tin horn, man,

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Speaker 3: and we could not stop them.

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Speaker 4: We have a lot to get to. We'll go through

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Speaker 4: rapid fire cover a bunch of games. We have four

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Speaker 4: marquee matchups to get to. We'll even talk some tin

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Speaker 4: horn matchups. FC Yes or now makes its return have

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Speaker 4: some trash as always, so let's start with a little

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Speaker 4: before we get to the market match up. Let's get

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Speaker 4: to a little look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot.

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Speaker 4: Is it time to look ahead or look away? So

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Speaker 4: let's start with the the egg Bowl next week, which

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Speaker 4: will always be one of my favorite games, regardless of

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Speaker 4: even where the teams stand. Missippi State is way down

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Speaker 4: Ole Misses out of all the races, but the game

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Speaker 4: will still be fun in an island spot Thanksgiving night,

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Speaker 4: as it is every year. Before those teams get to

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Speaker 4: the egg Bowl, Ole miss will host ULM. They are

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Speaker 4: thirty seven and a half point favorite, Mississippi State fourteen

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Speaker 4: point favorite over suddenly re rejuvenated Southern miss squad. Anything

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Speaker 4: in either of these home battles for Mississippi teams.

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Speaker 2: And under in both these games all the way. I'll

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Speaker 2: start off with Old Miss Lane. Kiffin says we have

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Speaker 2: a lot to play for. We want to be undefeated

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Speaker 2: at home, and then he says, you would like to

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Speaker 2: have your players have a lower snap count, get more

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Speaker 2: guys experience. That tells me that they're not all in

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Speaker 2: on the game. They won is you know, running plays.

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Speaker 2: They're going to get some experience into some of the freshmen.

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Speaker 2: Then you flip over to Terry Bowden, the head coach

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Speaker 2: at ULM. He's like, I'm trying to get a competitive

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Speaker 2: balance of being competitive in this game and I want

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Speaker 2: to head start on next year. And he said the

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Speaker 2: freshman quarterback Blake Murphy, he's not going to play in

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Speaker 2: this game. It would be his fourth appearance. He's saving

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Speaker 2: that for next week so he doesn't burn his red shirt.

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Speaker 2: He's going to play against Louisiana next week. So this

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Speaker 2: is a game where red shirt management becomes paramount. To

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Speaker 2: Terry Bowden, and he says, you have to give your

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Speaker 2: upper classmen a chance to play and do the best

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Speaker 2: they can and honor them and let them play. So

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Speaker 2: some of the seniors that he hasn't wanted to play,

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Speaker 2: not a part of the first string, He's going to

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Speaker 2: let them play here. So both coaches saying they're going

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Speaker 2: to do things a little bit differently and just try

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Speaker 2: to get it out of Dodge. Same thing with Southern

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Speaker 2: missis miss State, I mean Missis State. First off, Missie

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Speaker 2: State hasn't scored two touchdowns in a game since Well

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Speaker 2: Western Michigan on October seventh. And Greg Knox gets the

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Speaker 2: interim tag after being an analyst this year. He served

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Speaker 2: in the same role the twenty seventeen tax Slayer Bowl,

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Speaker 2: the vaunted Keton Thompson thirty one to twenty seven win

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Speaker 2: over Lamar Jackson. And he's a former running back coach

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Speaker 2: at miss Stake, Florida under Dan Mullen and then in

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Speaker 2: the MAC He was with Buffalo last year. And I

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Speaker 2: think all of this is to say I tried to

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Speaker 2: find a connection between him and Will Hall. Well, Will

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Speaker 2: Hall found it right. He says, I know Greg Knox,

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Speaker 2: I know him well. Him and my dad are really

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Speaker 2: good friends. I knew him when I was young, and

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Speaker 2: I think the world of him, and he's always been

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Speaker 2: good to me. There is no chance either one of

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Speaker 2: these guys want to blow each other out. Now that

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Speaker 2: isn't Knox talking, but Knox has known Will Hall since

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Speaker 2: he was a kid. There's just there's no chance in

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Speaker 2: Mississippi State's going to blow this game out. Everybody wants

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Speaker 2: to get out of Dodger play next week. Yeah, and

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Speaker 2: they haven't even scored two tds, so this is under

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Speaker 2: They don't.

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Speaker 4: Know if Rodgers is going to play, and Marx too,

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Speaker 4: they're starting running back and Will Rodgers have been out

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Speaker 4: for a while. We don't know the status of either.

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Speaker 2: Can Southern Miss win this game?

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Speaker 4: Sure? I mean, look, Southern Miss, they made some schematic changes.

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Speaker 4: They you know, the they upset Louisiana, they beat you

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Speaker 4: on Monroe by seventeen. Go back to the app State game.

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Speaker 4: They were leading in the fourth quarter. So that's all

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Speaker 4: after they got thumped by South Alabama fifty five to three,

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Speaker 4: and then Will Hall basically came out and said, you know,

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Speaker 4: we're changing everything. So the defense is still bad. I mean,

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Speaker 4: just to give you a lens into this ul Monroe

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Speaker 4: team that plays all miss, Southern Miss beat them twenty

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Speaker 4: four to seven. I mean, that is the only time

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Speaker 4: this Southern Miss defense is really held up this year.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, they're they're playing better overall over the last

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Speaker 4: three weeks. Southern Miss could have some success and they

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Speaker 4: can just they can control the clock here, like it's

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Speaker 4: just gonna be what they basically have done that they've

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Speaker 4: just they've just fed Frank Gore over the past few weeks.

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Speaker 4: I mean Frank Gore, who was a stud Over the

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Speaker 4: past three weeks. He had twenty four for two forty seven,

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Speaker 4: twenty four for one thirty one, and the last we

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Speaker 4: get thirty three carries for one hundred fifty eight yards.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, if this is Mike Wright, Southern missis gout

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Speaker 4: a shot. So keep an eye on the statuses of

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Speaker 4: Will Rogers and Mars for Mississippi State. One final look

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Speaker 4: ahead or look away connection. Obviously, we have the game

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Speaker 4: next week between Michigan and Ohio State, which I think

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Speaker 4: is probably gonna break every year that's the most watched

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Speaker 4: regular season college football game. It'll I think this year

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Speaker 4: if they're both undefeated, assuming that they are, I think

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Speaker 4: this will break the record by a wide margin. That's

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Speaker 4: gonna be a ratings bonanza. But before we get to

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Speaker 4: the big rivalry game next week, minute Ohio State will

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Speaker 4: host Minnesota. They're twenty seven and a half point favorites,

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Speaker 4: and Michigan will travel to Maryland. They are then sitting

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Speaker 4: around nineteen nineteen and a half point favorites. One interesting

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Speaker 4: nugget here since two thousand and five Michigan and Ohio

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Speaker 4: State are just twelve twenty one to one against the

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Speaker 4: spread the week before the game, failing to cover by

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Speaker 4: about four points per game on average, and that includes

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Speaker 4: a five and thirteen against the spread record when favored

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Speaker 4: by double digits. I'm semi interested in both dogs. I'm

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Speaker 4: going to play Maryland unreluctantly. I'm sure they'll be down

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Speaker 4: fifty fifty five to nothing in the second quarter. But

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Speaker 4: I don't really expect much from Michigan here. There is

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Speaker 4: no reason. It's just a terrible spot too. They have

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Speaker 4: that emotional game last week at Penn State. You play

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Speaker 4: your second trade row game noon kick in College Park

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Speaker 4: with Ohio State game on deck, so they could come

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Speaker 4: out a little flat and this Maryland team could move

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Speaker 4: the ball. They can move the ball, you know pretty

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Speaker 4: much on anyone. You know. You saw them up at

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Speaker 4: the half at Ohio State. They just killed themselves with turnovers.

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Speaker 4: You have to hope that this game doesn't go like

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Speaker 4: it did two years ago at Maryland when Maryland just

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Speaker 4: gave Michigan fifty short fields, a punper Triverer touchdown, a

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Speaker 4: pick six and it got out of hand. But last

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Speaker 4: year they only lost by seven at Michigan. Italia had

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Speaker 4: some success throwing the ball. Their offensive line is pretty

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Speaker 4: good in pass protection. I think Maryland can score enough

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Speaker 4: to get seventeen to twenty here to cover this number,

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Speaker 4: which I make closer to to around fifteen ish, and

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Speaker 4: then throw in the spot, and then throw in the

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Speaker 4: fact that I just don't think that Michigan is going

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Speaker 4: to risk much or show much, especially once they build

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Speaker 4: a lead. And then same with Ohio State. Ohio State,

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Speaker 4: and it's not a team I love as a big favorite.

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Speaker 4: Would love to get a twenty eight year with Minnesota.

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Speaker 4: I don't know who's gonna cover Harrison, and that Minnesota

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Speaker 4: offense just sometimes can vomit. So like I trust the

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Speaker 4: Maryland offense more, even though it's a little bit of

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Speaker 4: a shorter number. And even just looking at the market,

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Speaker 4: Penn State closed a seven point favorite at Maryland a

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Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago. Now granted they rolled, but Maryland

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Speaker 4: took massive money, closed the seven point favorite. Now Michigan

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Speaker 4: in a terrible spot. And you know, a team that

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Speaker 4: plays super slow is a nineteen and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 4: That's a twelve and a half point difference. That's not

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Speaker 4: I mean last week we saw Michigan as a four

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Speaker 4: to four and a half point favorite against Penn State,

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Speaker 4: so I think this is a little inflated. I like

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Speaker 4: Maryland lean to Minnesota, might throw a little bit on them,

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Speaker 4: But we'll be on Maryland just waiting to see up

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Speaker 4: at twenty pops and where the market gootes because it's

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Speaker 4: in a dead rage. You have any thoughts on either

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Speaker 4: of these games.

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Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers.

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Speaker 4: Avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 1: Let's check in with Bodog Jim.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I make Michigan seventeen, so I think it is

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Speaker 2: a little too high. I'm not going to get involved

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Speaker 2: with this one because I think we mentioned it two

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Speaker 2: years ago. Is the exact same spot Maryland was between

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Speaker 2: Penn State and Ohio State and Michigan beat him fifty

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Speaker 2: nine to eighteen. And Harbaugh is saying things that like,

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Speaker 2: I don't want to be any part of being on

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Speaker 2: the opposite side of it, mister Bowdog Jim, mister I

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Speaker 2: don't associate with gamblers, says this week. The mission last

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Speaker 2: year was a happy mission. This year it's a mission

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Speaker 2: of faith. It's a mission about speaking truth to power.

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Speaker 2: It's a mission on playing each other as playing with

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Speaker 2: each other as a band of brothers. When the hell

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Speaker 2: did Jim Harbaugh become so biblical the mission of faith? Like,

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Speaker 2: I'm just I'm not going to get involved with this

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Speaker 2: guy talking out of both sides of his mouth. But

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Speaker 2: on the other game, I do have a play. I

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Speaker 2: took a Marvin Harrison junior two plus tds at plus

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Speaker 2: one seventy five as a prop, and so the thinking

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Speaker 2: is like, I make the side in the total spot

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Speaker 2: on with the projection. So I'm not going to get

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Speaker 2: a play in there. But if Ryan Day is going

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Speaker 2: to keep up in this Heisman conversation, he's got to

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Speaker 2: have it in the touchdowns. Now, I veered for the

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Speaker 2: touchdowns and not the yards. Why look at the last

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Speaker 2: three weeks. He's had two touchdowns every game, but he's

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Speaker 2: had ten targets one hundred and twenty three yards against Wisconsin,

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Speaker 2: seven targets twenty five yards against Rutgers. That's it, twenty

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Speaker 2: five yards and then Michigan statey had nine targets for

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Speaker 2: one forty nine and again two tds in all of

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Speaker 2: those games. So he's going to get targeted seven to ten.

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Speaker 2: But the yardage is really fluctuated from twenty five up

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Speaker 2: to one hundred and twenty five. But the deal is

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Speaker 2: is it's the only place they can throw, it's the

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Speaker 2: only place they're efficient. It's the only place they're making

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Speaker 2: explosive plays. And that's Marvin Harrison Junior.

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Speaker 4: Minnesota's good safeties. Their corners are not good. Right, All right,

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Speaker 4: good stuff there. Before we get to the market matchups

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Speaker 4: reminder BBOC podcast presented by bet On GM use bonus

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Speaker 4: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. All right, let's

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Speaker 4: get to the marquee matchups of the day.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 2: betting for Week twelve.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's start in Let's start in the SEC

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Speaker 4: where Georgia will travel to Knoxville to take on Tennessee.

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Speaker 4: Reeling after that embarrassing loss against Missouri. Georgie is sitting

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Speaker 4: at ten and zero Tennessee seven and three. Georgia ten

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Speaker 4: and a half point favored. Here under has taken some

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Speaker 4: money down to fifty eight and a half. Tennessee, They're

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Speaker 4: a hard not for me to crack. Obviously, one of

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Speaker 4: the best rushing attacks in the country, and then you

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Speaker 4: throw the variants of Joe Milton in there, right, so'll

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Speaker 4: have these good flashes and bad flashes. Is just so inconsistent.

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Speaker 4: The surprise that Tennessee couldn't run it. I wasn't surprised

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Speaker 4: that Tennessee couldn't run it well against Missouria. Missouri's run

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Speaker 4: defense very good, but I thought they would have a

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Speaker 4: little bit more success and their defense. That was the

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Speaker 4: most surprising aspect to me last week is their defense

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Speaker 4: just couldn't do anything. I mean, they couldn't they run, pass,

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Speaker 4: you name it. Georgia's offense is rolling right now, hitting

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Speaker 4: their stride at the right time, getting healthier across the

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Speaker 4: board as well. Defense is definitely a step down from

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Speaker 4: the unit that we saw over the past two years.

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Speaker 4: You can run on them a bet. They're not really

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Speaker 4: getting a ton of pressure. The secondary is an elite now. Look,

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Speaker 4: it's still one of the best defenses in the country,

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Speaker 4: but it's not an unit that's gonna completely shut down teams.

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Speaker 4: It's pretty logical they lost a ton of NFL talent.

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Speaker 4: The question is ken Tennessee take advantage. I think that

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Speaker 4: they'll have some success on the ground. What can Milton

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Speaker 4: do is can he be consistent enough? Can he hit

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Speaker 4: some deep balls? It's a tough game for me to crack.

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Speaker 4: What do you see here in Georgia Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: I took the under. I split my bet on a

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Speaker 2: first half under in a full game under here. Both

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Speaker 2: head coaches came out of their press conferences this week

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Speaker 2: and talked about how they need to establish the run.

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Speaker 2: Josh Iipel starting off saying that the best way to

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Speaker 2: keep pressure off of Joe Milton is to simply stay

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Speaker 2: on schedule and get the acquired yards in first and

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Speaker 2: second down. Easier said than done. Right, So, you know

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Speaker 2: they have Jalen Right and Jabari Small, you would think

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Speaker 2: they'd be able to take the load, and he's the

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Speaker 2: pressure off Joe Milton, who's averaged up the target as

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Speaker 2: lowest of his career. You would think that that's the path. Okay,

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Speaker 2: well let's go down there and say that Tennessee wants

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Speaker 2: to do that. The way that you beat Georgia. I

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Speaker 2: keep saying this over and over and over every week

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Speaker 2: is outside zone. Peyton Thorn ninety yards. It's because of

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Speaker 2: outside zone. You look at Jackson Dart how successful they were.

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Speaker 2: The problem was is Old miss ran out of healthy tackles,

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Speaker 2: healthy everything in that game. They were running thin on health.

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Speaker 2: But the way to attack Georgia, it's all in the

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Speaker 2: run concept metrics is outside zone. Tennessee does not run

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Speaker 2: outside zone at all fifteen snaps this season. They run inside,

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Speaker 2: they run outside zone. Their entire life is inside zone.

283
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Speaker 2: Georgia defense, even with a light box showing six in there,

284
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Speaker 2: they have been able to tear that apart. So I

285
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,080
Speaker 2: don't think Tennessee's going to be able to run the ball.

286
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Speaker 2: I think there is going to be long down in

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00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:47,840
Speaker 2: distances and third down for Joe Milton, and that's going

288
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Speaker 2: to be a very inefficient day for him going up

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Speaker 2: against that quarters coverage of Georgia. Now on the other side,

290
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Speaker 2: Kirby Smart said the key to to playing on the

291
00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,840
Speaker 2: road in the SEC is to be able to establish

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Speaker 2: the run at the very first part of the game.

293
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Speaker 2: He says, we have to be more physical at the

294
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Speaker 2: line of scrimage. We have to dominate them at the

295
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Speaker 2: line of scrimmage. So, you know, the Tennessee run defense,

296
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Speaker 2: it's it's like you said, like they were excellent prior

297
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Speaker 2: to the Missouri game. They were excellent and stopping inside

298
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Speaker 2: and outside zone, which is what George is going to

299
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Speaker 2: try to put on them. So if the Tennessee defense

300
00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:20,800
Speaker 2: steps up, I'm looking good with my full game under,

301
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,840
Speaker 2: my first half under. At some point, I do believe

302
00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,280
Speaker 2: Carson Beck's going to start hitting explosives downfield. Now we

303
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 2: you know, have seen that Lad McConkey has heard again

304
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,440
Speaker 2: brock Bowers is working back in. But if it is

305
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Speaker 2: brock Bowers, it's shorter passing and not long bombs that

306
00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,720
Speaker 2: are going down the field. So I like the under

307
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Speaker 2: here fifty nine being second biggest key number in totals,

308
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Speaker 2: so I try to get on the right side of that.

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Speaker 4: Any feel on the side.

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Speaker 2: Well, I make the number eight and a half, and

311
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Speaker 2: so Sunday I was sitting around thinking, I've got to

312
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Speaker 2: take a Tennessee number at ten and a half. I

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Speaker 2: have to just as a numbers perspective alone. So then

314
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,080
Speaker 2: the fact that Joe Milton does not run off tackle

315
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Speaker 2: or Jalen Writer Jabari Small don't run off tackle, which

316
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:02,960
Speaker 2: you can do against Georgia because they have a light

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Speaker 2: box and they allow it. And we've seen quarterbacks do

318
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Speaker 2: it to them before. Brady Cook did it, Peyton Thorn

319
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Speaker 2: did it. Tennessee doesn't do it, and so I just

320
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Speaker 2: I can't do it, even though the number is higher,

321
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Speaker 2: I can't do it because the inevitable Georgia two score lead.

322
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Speaker 2: I'm not get in front of the death star. Right

323
00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,200
Speaker 2: it is Georgia death star mode late November. I'm not

324
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Speaker 2: getting in front of it. When you can't do the

325
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Speaker 2: one thing that they have trouble with.

326
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Speaker 4: I think that they're going to be in it or

327
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Speaker 4: only I just don't know if Milton can make enough plays.

328
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Speaker 4: I don't know if you'll be able to do so.

329
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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the Big twelve with

330
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,160
Speaker 4: a couple teams stolen contention in the wild Big Twelve

331
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Speaker 4: race Kansas State will head to Lawrence to take on

332
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Speaker 4: in state rival Kansas. Kansas State is a eight and

333
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Speaker 4: a half point favorite here over under fifty six and

334
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:56,000
Speaker 4: a half. I don't know out about this game personally,

335
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Speaker 4: because I don't know it's gonna get quarterback for Kansas.

336
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,920
Speaker 4: There's three listed as a or you know, Jayden Daniels.

337
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 4: I don't think it's gonna play again this year, but

338
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Speaker 4: we see. Then you have Jason Bean, who got knocked

339
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Speaker 4: out of the game last week against Texas Tech. Yeah,

340
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,719
Speaker 4: you know Lance Lappel, who he came out and said

341
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,159
Speaker 4: he took a lot of reps of practice today yesterday.

342
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,320
Speaker 4: This was yesterday. And then you have the third string

343
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,120
Speaker 4: Connor Ballard is that his name, who came in. He's

344
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Speaker 4: not really as athletic as Bean or Daniels. Let some

345
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:33,919
Speaker 4: scoring Colbalard he led some scoring drives last week, but

346
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,160
Speaker 4: it was ugly like there was a lot of third

347
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,920
Speaker 4: down well tush versions. Yeah, so there's gonna be a

348
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:45,439
Speaker 4: big drop off between Bean and indoor Daniels and then

349
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Speaker 4: down to the true freshman Ballard. So it's very hard

350
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 4: for me to get a feel for this because I

351
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:55,160
Speaker 4: don't have any intel or strong feeling as to who

352
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,680
Speaker 4: was actually gonna go for Kansas. What do you see here?

353
00:17:59,520 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 4: Do you have?

354
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Speaker 2: I have a respected source on Sunday that said it's

355
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,919
Speaker 2: not looking good for Bean. That was Sunday. It is

356
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:08,399
Speaker 2: my plan to do.

357
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,680
Speaker 4: You think live Bult's playing some games here?

358
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah?

359
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:11,439
Speaker 4: I do.

360
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:13,560
Speaker 2: I see a lot of quarterbacks coming back from a

361
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,359
Speaker 2: lot of things, but not when it involves the head.

362
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:17,640
Speaker 2: And if it's not him, and it's Cole Ballard, this game,

363
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,640
Speaker 2: this game right now, So I power rate the six

364
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:20,959
Speaker 2: and a half, this line is time.

365
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 4: I would like Kansas fully healthy eight and a half.

366
00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 4: I would like Kansas State if it's Ballad.

367
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's the whole thing. Is I make

368
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 2: the six and a half with Bean without him, I

369
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 2: think it should be like eleven. So the market's telling

370
00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,679
Speaker 2: me that Bean is highly doubtful in this game. You

371
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 2: know the Kansas defense has Kansas is not gonna be

372
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,240
Speaker 2: able to do what they do on offense. But they're

373
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 2: heavy motion, their pistol, crazy counter concepts going on. They're

374
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,320
Speaker 2: not gonna be able to do that with Cole Ballard.

375
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 2: He was not able to throw the ball nine of

376
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:50,639
Speaker 2: twenty last week. You can throw the whole Kansas offense

377
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,359
Speaker 2: out the window. If Bean is out. Now when you

378
00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,439
Speaker 2: go to the other side of the ball, it's it's gross.

379
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 2: I don't know what the Kansas defense is going to

380
00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 2: be able to do here, Like it is the worst

381
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 2: you could put to that. Sheets up Kansas State offense,

382
00:19:01,600 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 2: especially running against the Kansas defense.

383
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 4: Vanas's going to dilate a lot of scrimmage. Heare move

384
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,880
Speaker 4: the ball at will. If path Kansas is healthy being

385
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 4: and they have to keep off, they're not going to

386
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:11,880
Speaker 4: get many stops.

387
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,560
Speaker 2: Well, can Kansas even limit drives? No, they're one hundred

388
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,919
Speaker 2: and fifteenth in quality drives. They are dead last. You know,

389
00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 2: I didn't even know this, they're dead last. And red

390
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,560
Speaker 2: zone and red zone scoring opponent red zone scoring. Forty

391
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,199
Speaker 2: of forty one trips to the Kansas red zone have

392
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,639
Speaker 2: all been scores. You know what that one team was,

393
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 2: Oh you baby, that's right, it was OU and the

394
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,160
Speaker 2: first damn trip to the red zone. So no, all

395
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 2: the rest of them have all been scored. So Kansas State,

396
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 2: you flip to the other side. Kansas forty of fifty

397
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 2: red zone attempts have been tds, fourth highest nationally. I

398
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,719
Speaker 2: played Kansas State team total over thirty three and a half,

399
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 2: and that was based on the fact that Kansas's red

400
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,880
Speaker 2: zone allows everybody to score tds, Kansas State scores tds,

401
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 2: and Kansas State will get no resistance at the line

402
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: of scrimmage on every single offensive possession they have. Now

403
00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,640
Speaker 2: that being said, the spread might come down with being

404
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 2: being announced out, I would expect the spread to go

405
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 2: from fifty six down to maybe fifty four and a

406
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 2: half across that key and you can get a better

407
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 2: Kansas State team total over because I'm not sure team

408
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 2: total wise who they're going to take those points off of. Now,

409
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: last thing I'll say about this game, I desperately want

410
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,639
Speaker 2: to bet Kansas State. But there's one book right now

411
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 2: that I do a lot of action at. That is

412
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,360
Speaker 2: holding a seven and a half minus one fifteen. I'm

413
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 2: thinking about just buying the hook, put it at minus

414
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 2: one twenty five, letting it go. But that's a little

415
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 2: rich for my blood. But uh, Kansas State should absolutely

416
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 2: dominate in this game, no matter if being's playing or not.

417
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, the difference is Kansas just has no shout of

418
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,439
Speaker 4: keeping up. I don't think without being all right, let's

419
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 4: move to the Pac twelve for our final two marquee games.

420
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 4: Will save the one with the most implications for next

421
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 4: in Washington at Oregon State. But let's first head down

422
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 4: to Tucson.

423
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 2: No long lost.

424
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 4: Down USA.

425
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 2: So this time the balls.

426
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 4: Choose where Arizona will host Utah. Arizona is I think's

427
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 4: still sitting around a one point favorite here over under

428
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:22,440
Speaker 4: forty five. Believe it, Arizona has a pretty simple path

429
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 4: to the Pack twelve championship. I mean it's not likely,

430
00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,880
Speaker 4: but they need Oregon State to beat Oregon and they

431
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 4: just need to win out and if that happens, they

432
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 4: go to the Pac twelve Championship. They play obviously Utah

433
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 4: and then Arizona State next week. Obviously. I mean, I

434
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 4: don't need to This isn't breaking news. I'm on Arizona here.

435
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 4: Arizona's been just a machine at home. For what it's worth,

436
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 4: I think this is a really good matchup for Arizona.

437
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 4: Number one, very balanced offense with a great line. And

438
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 4: we talked about this similar price range against Ucla. What

439
00:21:55,560 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 4: is the strength of UCLA's defense that defensive line, right,

440
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 4: they got just studs across the defensive line. What can

441
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 4: Arizona do pass protect and that they can neutralize this

442
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 4: Utah defensive line short passing attack like this game plays

443
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 4: out to me very similar to that UCLA game because

444
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 4: then you look at the UCLA offense can't really throw

445
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 4: it heavy rush that's kind of Utah's offense, and they

446
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 4: don't really have great receivers on the outside. What's Arizona's

447
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 4: strength on defense, it's defending the run. So I just

448
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 4: don't think that Utah, especially with the injuries the tight end,

449
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 4: they just can't take advantage like the middle of the

450
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 4: field with short passes, and I think Arizona can. They're

451
00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 4: short passing attack, ground game. So I think this is

452
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 4: a really good matchup for Arizona Utah second straight road game.

453
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 4: After that, you know Max effort in Washington, they're basically

454
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 4: pretty much eliminated from going back to the Pac twelve

455
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,520
Speaker 4: title again. I think this Arizona team will be hyped

456
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 4: at home where they've been great all year. And I

457
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 4: think that the Utah look Utah just Kyle Winningham is awesome.

458
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 4: I do think that Utah is still a little overvalued

459
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 4: in the market. I know they covered last week, they

460
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 4: had no business covering this Podcat has been cursed by

461
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 4: team's not being able to get through a past the

462
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 4: goal line. You get a goal line, a ball dropped

463
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,959
Speaker 4: at the one, and then you get a field goal

464
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 4: kicked into someone's ass at the end. But then if

465
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 4: you look back, Utah, they've had so many injuries, that's

466
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 4: just it was just a curse season for them. They

467
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 4: almost lost a bailor backup quarterback making his first start.

468
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 4: Then they played you know, UCLA freshman Dante Moor's first

469
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 4: hostile environment start, Graham Mertz his first start in a

470
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 4: brand new scheme, you know, freshman Mendoza for Cal making

471
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 4: his first career start, and he left with an injury.

472
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 4: Arizona State had to play their four string quarterback Jacob Conover,

473
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 4: who is horrendous with a decimated offensive line, playing true

474
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 4: freshman Like that's five of their data points, which I

475
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 4: think have inflated some of their numbers. So yeah, I

476
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 4: think uh and Barnes. Like Barnes this year, four big

477
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 4: time throws, nine turnover worthy plays. I just don't think

478
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 4: he has the chops to beat this Arizona secondary. And

479
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 4: I think this very well schemed Arizona offense with caling

480
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 4: healthy enough to back. He left with an injury, but

481
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 4: he's healthy and we'll play. And Bokvaki suny Vaki was

482
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 4: providing this Utah offense with this huge spark. He's not

483
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 4: even getting any carries anymore, as you alluded to a

484
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,240
Speaker 4: couple of weeks ago, which just came to fruition and

485
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 4: Arizona only allowed three point two yards per carries, sixteenth

486
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 4: in the country. So bare down. Give me the Arizona team.

487
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 4: Good matchup here, good run dy, good offensive line to

488
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 4: pass protech against that Utah front. You agree or you

489
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 4: want to go ahead to that again.

490
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 2: I haven't made a decision whether I'm going to play

491
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,399
Speaker 2: this game. I think it's a terrible spot for Utah

492
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 2: and the number of high profile games they've played and

493
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: then escaping Washington with a cover. It was a joke

494
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 2: last week. It soured me on them a little bit.

495
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: But you know, and then when I look at Arizona,

496
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: you really have to I watched that whole game on

497
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 2: PAC twelve network, which I can't wait to be buried

498
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 2: so I don't have to go through the hoops of

499
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 2: watching that damn channel, you know, And we talked about

500
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 2: it all. It was all punts. Field position on punts

501
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 2: average starting field position of Arizona was at the twenty

502
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: Colorado was at the thirty six. They were granted a

503
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 2: lot of advantages in that game. Arizona was still able

504
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 2: to pull it out on the road. Good for them,

505
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 2: but you know they dominated on the ground. They originally

506
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 2: eight yards of carry and Jonah Coleman averaged sixteen yards

507
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 2: per Carrie on eleven attempts. He's amazing. Arizona does run

508
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: and even split of outside and inside zone. Utah has

509
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 2: been very good against outside zone. So I'd expect if

510
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 2: Arizona is going to have some explosive plays on the ground,

511
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: it's all going to come from inside zone and Jonah Coleman,

512
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 2: which they were completely capable of doing. I think where

513
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: I get tripped up and I want the underend this game.

514
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 2: There's just no pass explosives here whatsoever. Both these teams

515
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 2: are bottom fifteen in the country and pass explosives and

516
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 2: we know no if Afita has averaged up to targets,

517
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 2: you know, one of the lowest in the country.

518
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 4: That's how you want to attack Utah.

519
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know exactly. The short passing is where you

520
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,719
Speaker 2: want to get them not downfield, but what are they

521
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 2: going to do when they get down into the red zone,

522
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 2: which Utah has fallen outside the top fifty and defensive

523
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 2: finishing drive, so I can I definitely see the case

524
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 2: for Arizona. I don't like the spot for Utah. I

525
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:19,959
Speaker 2: was really kind of more warm to the under but

526
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,400
Speaker 2: we'll see what. We'll see what I play coming up.

527
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 4: For what it's worth, Arizona absurd at home against ranked

528
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 4: opponents since two thousand and five, twenty two to ten

529
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:34,360
Speaker 4: against the spread, sixty nine percent, nice covering by over

530
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 4: a touchdown per game. Only Auburn has been more profitable

531
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:43,200
Speaker 4: in that role. That includes Arizona nineteen six and one

532
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 4: against the spread as an underdog against ranked opponents seventy

533
00:26:47,280 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 4: six percent against the spread. With that Tucson magic, John,

534
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 4: but let's stay in the Pac twelve and go to

535
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 4: our final marquee game, and it's a big one. Washington

536
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 4: will look to maintain their perfect season when they travel

537
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 4: to Corvallis to take on the eight and two feisty Beavers.

538
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 4: Washington obviously controls its own destiny. Win this game, win

539
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 4: the Apple Cup, win the Pac twelve championship. Not only

540
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 4: are they packed twel championships, but they are going to

541
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 4: the College Football Playoff would be their second appearance this line.

542
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 4: Oregon State has taking some money Oregon State. It's not

543
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 4: up to two and a half point favorite over under

544
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 4: totals up to about sixty two and a half. I

545
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 4: agreed with the money coming in on Oregon State. I

546
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 4: played Oregon State, would play them up to two and

547
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 4: a half. Look, this Washington team has been flirting with

548
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 4: disaster for weeks. I mean, Arizona State should have lost

549
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 4: that game if they had a kicker, you know, you

550
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 4: should have lost the Oregon But you get all the

551
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 4: fourth down variants. You're in battles with Stanford USC games,

552
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 4: back and forth, changes on a fourth down and fumble

553
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 4: at the end of the first half. I mean they

554
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 4: have it's been just hey, we're getting out of dodge.

555
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 4: The offense is still great. You know, you could get

556
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 4: a little bit more McMillan. You could get some McMillan

557
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 4: at receiver. They're going to move the ball through the air.

558
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 4: Oregon State's defense metrically, they're actually been, you know, pretty

559
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 4: decent against the pass. But they have really good safeties.

560
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I love their safeties. Their corners aren't that great.

561
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 4: That's the biggest weakness in my opinion on their defense.

562
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 4: So they're not going to really be able to stick

563
00:28:55,040 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 4: with the Washington receivers on the outside. So I think

564
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 4: Washington will move the ball. On the other side, I

565
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 4: think Oregon State, which has arguably the best offensive line

566
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 4: in the country, and I think they're getting their star

567
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 4: center back this week. They have two amazing running backs

568
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 4: and Damian Martinez Deshaun Fenwick. They can run the ball

569
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 4: on anybody, and they're going up against one of the

570
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 4: worst run defenses in the country. So you know, like

571
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 4: I mean, you look at this Washington defense, I mean

572
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 4: some of the the stats, I mean it is, it's bleak.

573
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 4: They are bottom six nationally and stuff right lineyards and

574
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 4: success rate on rush plays yep, that's and the Beavers

575
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 4: number two in the country in rushing success rate. So

576
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 4: I just think Oreganstone's gonna be able to move the

577
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 4: ball down the field. So I think both teams gonna

578
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 4: be able to do the ball. Where is the difference,

579
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: And by the way, for what it's worth, Oregon State

580
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 4: fifteenth in the country asking downs exposedness. I think they're

581
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 4: gonna be able to move the chains, bring the safeties up,

582
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,479
Speaker 4: and the Washington defense just isn't the same, especially that

583
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 4: they've had some injuries at safety and other places. They

584
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,160
Speaker 4: just don't have a lot of depth on defense. And

585
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 4: then I think Oregon State, I'll play action, is going

586
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 4: to hit a couple of deep shots here, but I

587
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 4: think the biggest difference and maybe I should let you

588
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 4: just do this because this is I'm gonna sound like

589
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 4: you is going to come and finishing your eys. Oregon

590
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 4: State is elite in both on offense and defense. Offense

591
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,440
Speaker 4: makes sense. They can run the ball as well as anybody.

592
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 4: They can finish drives in a number of ways, and

593
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 4: they're always going to finish in with touchdowns and against

594
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 4: this Washington defense shouldn't be any different. And for and

595
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 4: then Washington they're still very good, but their offense just

596
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 4: isn't as elite when the field shrinks because they're just

597
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 4: not that much space and they're running the ball a

598
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 4: little bit better. But and then on defense, they've they've

599
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 4: struggled in that department. To put some numbers to it,

600
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 4: points per opportunity Oregon State sixth on offense, twenty third

601
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 4: on defense, Washington thirteenth on offense, sixty eighth on defense.

602
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 4: I think that's the difference. I think Oregon State gets

603
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 4: more touchdowns at the red zone than Washington. Look for

604
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 4: a couple plays by my guy Oladappo, that's their safety

605
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 4: who I love him and Arnold are really good pair

606
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 4: back there. But I think both teams moved the ball

607
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 4: pretty consistently. I think it comes down to finishing drives.

608
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 4: And you know what the trump card is. Corvallis right.

609
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 4: I couldn't believe this. Oregon State over the past three seasons.

610
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 4: Not only are they far and away the most profitable

611
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 4: team at home, they are including FCS games seventeen to

612
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 4: one against the spread in their past eighteen home games,

613
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 4: covering by ten points per game. Give me the cravallis magic.

614
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 4: Washington goes down, give me the beefs you agree.

615
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: I can't even call it an upset because Oregon State

616
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: is favored, which everybody on TV is going to say

617
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: it's an upset.

618
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 4: Is not.

619
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: No, I mean you you nailed it all except for

620
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 2: one thing. There's one other aspect of working in Oregon

621
00:31:57,800 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: State's favor, but no, you nailed man. Reeser has been

622
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 2: a house of horrors for opponents, especially considering last year

623
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: they chopped the damn field in half and only twenty

624
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 2: five thousand fit on one side and Oregon States still

625
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: covered everything no reason like their third string quarterback. Yeah. Yeah,

626
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: So this is a really tough place to play. And

627
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 2: I think one other thing there is precipitation coming in

628
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: seventy percent chance of presip coming in win should be

629
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 2: below ten miles an hour, so I'm not really worried

630
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: about that. But when you get wet field conditions generally

631
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 2: will help the team that is running and not the

632
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 2: team that is throwing, and so that should be Oregon State.

633
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: So a little slight note there for them. But you're right,

634
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 2: this ground game of Oregon State is dominating. Teams. Damian Martinez,

635
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: Deshaun Fenwick, and dju Ungalley are unstoppable. I wouldn't be

636
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 2: surprised if they average eight yards per carry here. And

637
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 2: you say that sounds a little high, well, Oregon State

638
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: trails LSU is the best rushing team in the nation.

639
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 2: Just put it this way. Utah, with the troubles they've

640
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,720
Speaker 2: had outside of trying to find someone to run the ball,

641
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 2: Utah posted double the national average and success rate in

642
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: twenty seven rushing attempts against Washington. Suff You mentioned all

643
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 2: the bad metrics that Washington has as far as defending

644
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 2: the rush, they're bad, they're worse when you go into

645
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 2: the run concepts. It looks even better for Oregon State here.

646
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: But the more important aspect is what happens down around

647
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 2: the goal line, which you touched on with finishing drives.

648
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 2: If you go into red zone, Washington's defense is one

649
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: hundred and fifteenth in red zone rushing touchdowns. So I

650
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 2: broke it up. I was like, doesn't get past menishing

651
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 2: drives in red zone. Let's look at how often how

652
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: well you're defending the rush, because that's what's coming for

653
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 2: you from Oregon State in the red zone one hundred

654
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 2: and fifteenth and rushing touchdowns allowed. Oregon State second nationally

655
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 2: in rushing red zone in red zone rushing td So

656
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 2: it's such a bad combination. Washington has to create explosives

657
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: through the air. As you mentioned that the corners are

658
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 2: a problem for Oregon State, but you know mistackles are

659
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: also a big part of those. So do you double

660
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 2: up on the outside not worry about Jayalen McMillan and

661
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 2: the slots and the crossers over the middle. I think

662
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 2: you're exactly the right stuck. There's way too many advantages

663
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 2: for the team that can run the ball, control the clock,

664
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 2: limit possessions. On the other side for a team that

665
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: is finesse and just likes to throw the ball. When

666
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 2: you consider what Oregon State does defensively in the red zone,

667
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 2: this is all Oregon State. It's probably going to shock

668
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 2: everybody the national media that's on our TV. It won't

669
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:25,879
Speaker 2: shock this podcast at all.

670
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,800
Speaker 4: All right, good stuff there on four marquee games. Let's

671
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 4: get to we'll cover, Let's get the seven more a little.

672
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: Rapid fire, rapid fire.

673
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 4: I don't know what which way you're gonna go with this.

674
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 4: Let's start Florida at Missouri, Florida catching eleven and a

675
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 4: half on the run. I played Florida, you're telling me

676
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 4: last week? I know Missouri dominated. Missouri closed a three

677
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 4: point home underdog to Tennessee. Now they're laying two touchdowns

678
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 4: more at home against Florida. I mean, Tennessee's not two

679
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 4: touchdowns better than Florida last time. Fire recall correctly, Florida

680
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 4: also ran Tennessee out of the building in a game

681
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 4: that they closed as a four point underdog at home.

682
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 4: This lie two high. Missouri also back to back emotional

683
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 4: games like like Georgia really close blow out Tennessee. You

684
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 4: Eli talking at the end of the game. Florida, you

685
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 4: got to norder to move the ball, Missouri, you got

686
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:25,319
Speaker 4: to efficiently pass it. Florida can do that here, and

687
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 4: you got underdog king Billy Naper got unlucky last week,

688
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 4: but he was trying to cover right util the end,

689
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 4: got to the goal line. He's nineteen and eight against

690
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,439
Speaker 4: the spread as an underdog, covering by seven points per game,

691
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 4: eight and three and catching double digits five and one

692
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 4: against teams inside the top fifteen. Give me the Gators here.

693
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 4: I think they keep this within like seven, seven to ten, probably.

694
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 2: At ten, I'm buying Missouri. At eleven and a half,

695
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 2: I'm buying Florida. It's that narrow of a margin for

696
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 2: me for where I make the number. Florida can absolutely

697
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 2: score here. You consider what they do offensively, twelve and

698
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 2: finishing drives and seventeenth and quality drives, a better strength

699
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 2: of better strength of schedule than Missouri. Considering who Missouri's

700
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: played Florida's gonna be able to get downfield. They're going

701
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: to be able to get points up against a leaguey

702
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 2: Missouri defense. Now, I know we saw something different against Tennessee,

703
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 2: but how much of that was Tennessee just giving up?

704
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: Of course, you're finishing drives, didn't That game was.

705
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 4: Really close the end of the first half of recall

706
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 4: before it was.

707
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 2: I mean, Tennessee didn't score any drive past the forty

708
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 2: Their one score or one touchdown was an explosive from

709
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 2: like the forty eight. Missouri still has issues on defense,

710
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,359
Speaker 2: especially when teams are in scoring position. So I think

711
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: Florida can keep up. But for me, it's all about

712
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 2: the number eleven and a half. I'd want with Florida

713
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,719
Speaker 2: ten I would want to if I back Missouri. Well, maybe

714
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 2: i'll play this live. I we'll see.

715
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, Missouri could be down there, two starting linebackers, everything,

716
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 4: that's one for the season, burden. I don't think it's

717
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 4: hundred percent. Give me the Gators here and I'll go

718
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 4: to war with sun Bell Billy Louisville at Miami. This

719
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 4: is probably the game I spent the most amount of

720
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 4: time on this week. Hours I was looking into this

721
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 4: game Yeah, a normal person might just sleep to rest

722
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 4: up and recover from the flu. But I'm looking into

723
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:07,479
Speaker 4: Miami Louisville. So I ended up playing Miami plus one.

724
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 4: I came away very confident in it. I went from

725
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 4: thinking I leaned Miami in the spot I was afraid of.

726
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 4: Let's say they're still catching one. Total is down to

727
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,359
Speaker 4: forty six and a half. Would lean the under there,

728
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 4: but the numbers pretty much beat out of it. I

729
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 4: think Miami's eventually gonna close. It's like a one and

730
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 4: a half two point favorite. So this Louisville team, they

731
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 4: get credit for being nine to one, I think they're

732
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 4: a fraud. I mean they've played one top thirty team

733
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 4: for my power ratings, Notre Dame, in the spot of

734
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,800
Speaker 4: the year, with beat up receivers and rotating offensive lineman.

735
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 4: I mean, and they turned it over five times. I mean,

736
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 4: let's look at the rest of the Louisville resume. They're

737
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 4: four and oh one possession games. Either one could have

738
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 4: what they all could have hit went either way. They

739
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 4: play NC State, who vomited the game of wayl Virginia,

740
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 4: I mean Virginia, and they alsost A Virginia at home

741
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 4: of the week was lost to Indiana before all the Indiana

742
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,439
Speaker 4: changes when Indiana was bad. Kind of have a goal

743
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,799
Speaker 4: line stand, Georgia Tech. You know, all these teams have

744
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 4: like changed quarterbacks and coordinators since that. Since that game,

745
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 4: they played three games outside of Louisville, one on a

746
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 4: neutral against Indiana. You need a goal line stand to

747
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 4: win the other at NC State should have lost. They

748
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 4: win thirteen to ten, and then they get dump trucked

749
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 4: by the Corpse of Pitt. They haven't played anyone with

750
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 4: a pulse on the road. I remember how bad that

751
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 4: NC State offense was with Armstrong earning in the season coo,

752
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 4: and they should have lost that game. I So when

753
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 4: I look when I look at this team, and you

754
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 4: might say, oh, well, they're struggling early with bron who

755
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 4: I think is going to turn around the program. And

756
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 4: I mean he already has in some ways. But then

757
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 4: did you go back to that Virginia effort, I mean,

758
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 4: what was that? So they're also dealing with injuries to

759
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 4: ord Jordan isn't fully healthy, Thrash, the number one receivers

760
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 4: in healthy, their number one corner he might not play

761
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 4: again Brownly, So they're not fully healthy and Plumber can't

762
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 4: move immobile, and his numbers under pressure are horrifying. And

763
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 4: you know who gets pressure Miami, and you know who's

764
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 4: gonna bring Blitzer from everywhere, Lance gidgrit I think Miami

765
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 4: and Miami's defense has been great all season. I mean,

766
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 4: and Miami's been the opposite of Louisville. This is a

767
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 4: Miami team that could have nine wins. They've losed that

768
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 4: they've lost every act they beat. You know, they beat Clemson,

769
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 4: and they've played I think four or five teams in

770
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 4: the top thirty. They've had a much harder schedule, but

771
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 4: krystal Ball's cost him two wins. Doesn't take an evers.

772
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 4: Georgia Tech against NC State calls a time out and

773
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 4: fourth downhen they had an easy touchdown and then they

774
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 4: come out and they run it and then c State

775
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: stops them. Two losses right there. They've also dealt with

776
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 4: a hurt quarterback and other quarterback injuries, so Van Dijke

777
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 4: will get the start on Williams is out for the season,

778
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:39,720
Speaker 4: and there's been a lot made about his turnover worthy

779
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 4: throws and his interceptions. I think he has eleven in

780
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 4: his last five games. Teams are dropping eight against him.

781
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 4: He just has made some bad throws, but he's been

782
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 4: also unlucky. Every one of his big times, every one

783
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 4: of his turnover worthy plays has turned it into an interception.

784
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 4: He hasn't been great. He also was dealing with an

785
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:55,160
Speaker 4: injury for some of those games. What I've gathered is

786
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 4: going to be healthier this this week Ja Curry Brown,

787
00:39:57,280 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 4: You're gonna see some pass some running packages for him.

788
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 4: He started a couple of last week's still limited as

789
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 4: a passer. But the Miami offensive line has been great.

790
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 4: One of the most underrated units in the country is

791
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 4: this Miami offensive line. And their receivers are good. They'll

792
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 4: have a fully healthy running back room. It's just been

793
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 4: the quarterback and the coach which have really held them back.

794
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 4: This Miami defense is going to show up. This is

795
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 4: their super Bowl. Was a little worried about what they

796
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 4: had left in the tank after last week. You could

797
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 4: have beat Florida State with their backup quarterback. But from

798
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 4: everything that I've read and gathered, I think that they're

799
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,920
Speaker 4: going to be fired up for this game. And you

800
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 4: don't really see Miami as a home dog often, but

801
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 4: they are eleven and six against the spread as a

802
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 4: home dog since two thousand and five. Also, last point

803
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 4: I'll make this is one of my favorite They ended

804
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 4: up being one of my favorite bets. Miami top three

805
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 4: special teams unit per My numbers, Louisville seventy eighth. Miami

806
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 4: takes out Louisville and makes the acc race more interesting.

807
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 4: Do you agree or disagree?

808
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 2: No? I agree my issue all week when wanting to

809
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,080
Speaker 2: lay a bet on this is the motivation, right, Like

810
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 2: I thought that Miami was kind of looking forward to

811
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 2: playing Florida State. Now the week after Florida State, do

812
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 2: they show up here? Do they care? I mean they

813
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 2: cared against Florida State. But all the advantages there that

814
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 2: you spoke of, Like Louisville, they want to run the

815
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 2: ball first, fifty eight percent run pass ratio starting with

816
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,440
Speaker 2: the run. Miami has a great run defense top fifteen,

817
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: and rushing success rate third in the nation and stuff

818
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: rate defensively, so that's going to be something for Louisville

819
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: to try to overcome. And you're right, they've played the

820
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 2: softest schedule. I don't think the overall records show what

821
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: these two teams are. It's more important about does Miami

822
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: have the motivation to play in this game. If they do, yeah,

823
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,400
Speaker 2: they absolutely I think they. I've got this projected. But

824
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 2: for them to win by two, I agree with you.

825
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: Miami is the side.

826
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it'll help. Like Louisville having one

827
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 4: loss and if they win, they clinch, So I think

828
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 4: that'll get Miami fire up. They can basically spoil their

829
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 4: ring season. Let's move on to a big one in

830
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 4: the AAC. SMU, my Mustangs.

831
00:41:52,520 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Stone Age.

832
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 4: I like it, have a future on them. I'm a

833
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 4: big in the Stone Age. I'm a big SMU fan.

834
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 4: I love their defense. I mean, some of the additions

835
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,319
Speaker 4: that they added through the portal have really beefed up

836
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 4: that unit. I mean, I remember the embarrassing defenses that

837
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 4: SMU has had. They've always had a good offense. Sure, eight

838
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 4: and a half point favored here in the Liberty Bowl

839
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 4: against Memphis. Both these teams are eight and two. The

840
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 4: way the AAC race will shake out, if Memphis wins,

841
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 4: they'll be right back in the mix because they'll have

842
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 4: one loss. SMU will have one loss, and then UTSA

843
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 4: and Twulane they're undfeated. They play each other next week,

844
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 4: so if Memphis wins, you're probably gonna get a three

845
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 4: way tiebreaker. Is gonna come down like a computer composite

846
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 4: ratings could get messy. SMU is so much better than Memphis.

847
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 4: It's stupid. But I can't lay eight and a half.

848
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 4: I'll be rooting for them for my futures. I think

849
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 4: they're gonna win the conference as long as they get

850
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 4: to the title game. This Memphis team now seth Henikan.

851
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 4: He can get hot, and this offense has some juice.

852
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,880
Speaker 4: They can't defend, they can't stop a nosebleed, and this

853
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 4: team's been getting so luck They beat North Texas by

854
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 4: three on like a thirty yard bomb to end the game.

855
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 4: They beat South Florida fifty nine to fifty, and then

856
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 4: last week they need overtime to beat Charlotte forty four

857
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 4: to thirty eight. I mean, they've pulled out all of

858
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 4: these close games all season. They beat Navy twenty eight

859
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 4: twenty four. They should have lost a Navy. They beat

860
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,760
Speaker 4: Boise thirty five thirty two because of block field goal returned.

861
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:26,879
Speaker 4: I mean, it's Memphis been one of the luckiest teams

862
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:30,320
Speaker 4: in the country. You know, they could be four and six,

863
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,440
Speaker 4: but they'll be feisty here. I'm a little afraid, like

864
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 4: Memphis always pulls off one of these upsets every year,

865
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 4: it seems in the Liberty Bowl, but I just don't know.

866
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 4: Get stops and SMUs defense is so much better. I'm

867
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 4: confident SMU will win without fuckery. But Memphis been getting

868
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 4: fuckery all year. And this line at eight and a half,

869
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:48,759
Speaker 4: I can't lay eight and a half. What do you

870
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 4: see here?

871
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: I like Memphis in the spot I wrote it up

872
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 2: for Action that got published. You guys can go read

873
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:55,879
Speaker 2: it now. I put the bed into the app. I've

874
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,320
Speaker 2: really kind of been waiting for these dead numbers to

875
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 2: play around all week before I try to get the

876
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,200
Speaker 2: best of that. I did miss out on nine, but

877
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 2: I will take eight and a half. And you're right

878
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 2: stuck like that. Memphis has some serious issues of the

879
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 2: stat sheet, but I think they're going to be able

880
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 2: to keep up here now. Preston Stone he played against

881
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 2: North Texas, even though he had a couple of tout

882
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 2: services out there saying play SMU against North Texas because

883
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,240
Speaker 2: Preston Stone is not going to play. He did play.

884
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 2: You know, they were able to pull away at the

885
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: end and shut down North Texas and then injury with

886
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 2: Seth hen Again, we didn't know if he was going

887
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 2: to make the trip to Charlotte. He was on the flight.

888
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 2: You don't make a flight on Memphis road games unless

889
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,280
Speaker 2: you're actually playing. Turns out he did. They won an overtime,

890
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 2: but it wasn't because of the offense. It's because of

891
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:36,760
Speaker 2: the defense. The defense could not stop the ground attack

892
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: from Charlotte whatsoever. So when you look at SMU and

893
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 2: what they run, they dominate with on the ground with

894
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 2: inside outside zone of Jalen knighton L J. Johnson, I

895
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 2: do expect SMU to get into scoring position. I expect

896
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 2: them to get their points. I expect them to have

897
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 2: as many opportunities as Memphis. But standard downs explosives is

898
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 2: the name of the game here. These offenses are about

899
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 2: fortieth and success threight, they're about fourteenth and twenty fourth

900
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: and explosives on early downs. That's where Memphis really has

901
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 2: an advantage against this SMU defense. Memphis has one of

902
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 2: the highest rates of efficiency passing on first down, there's

903
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 2: seventh nationally and throwing on first down. They love to

904
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 2: throw on first down, and SMU has one of the

905
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 2: lowest efficiencies On first down against the pass, they run

906
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 2: a three three five really light in the box. That's

907
00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 2: exactly where Memphis is going to throw. Needless to say,

908
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 2: this one feels like a tennis match of serve bots.

909
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 2: I think Memphis is able to stay up possession by

910
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 2: possession even if they're down two possessions. I think they

911
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 2: can backdoor cover here. Give me the Tigers.

912
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, huge, huge backdoor ability in this game. I can't

913
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 4: play SMU, but I probably would look at me at

914
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 4: like six six and a half, not ever a touchdown, right,

915
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 4: so don't necessarily disagree with you. Let's go to the

916
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 4: Pac twelve for a matchup that many thought would have

917
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 4: had more juice before the season started. Not now two

918
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 4: four lost teams in Los Angeles, when UCLA will take

919
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 4: on USC USC six and a half point favorite here

920
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 4: over under sixty five and a half. Look, UCLA, if healthy,

921
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,359
Speaker 4: they should just be able to run all just down

922
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 4: USC's throat like everyone does the entire game USC. Maybe

923
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 4: the UCLA defensive line could give USC's offensive line some problems.

924
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 4: So this feels a little rich to me, But I

925
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 4: don't know, Like, what's like chip CU is going to

926
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 4: get fired. What's going on there? Who's going to be

927
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 4: the quarterback for UCLA? I have no idea what's going

928
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 4: on with this UCLA program? Do you have anything here?

929
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 2: I do want Ucla. The problem is I have an

930
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 2: over eight on their win total. They have to have

931
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,880
Speaker 2: this game after, you know, really blowing it as a

932
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 2: heavy favorite. Ucla desperately needs a boost on the offensive

933
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 2: side of the ball. It's a good thing that USC

934
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 2: is on the schedule because they make everybody's offense look

935
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:40,239
Speaker 2: really good. You know, they need to be able to

936
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 2: take care of it. Their turnover margins is just way

937
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 2: too high. And we don't know who is going to

938
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:45,800
Speaker 2: be the quarterback here. I mean, Dante Moore hasn't logged

939
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 2: more than seven dropbacks. We haven't known all year since

940
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 2: the summer, who the starting quarterback is going to be

941
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 2: from game to game. Who knows who's playing quarterback. The

942
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 2: bigger issue is play calling, an execution and scoring opportunities.

943
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 2: You want to know why Chip Kelly, I don't know

944
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 2: why people are reporting that he's fired. See anybody verify

945
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 2: it out there. But he's going to get fired, I guess.

946
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 2: But they are one hundred and twentieth an offensive finishing drives.

947
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 2: That is really odd for a Chip Kelly team, just

948
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 2: averaging three point one points on drives beyond forty It's

949
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 2: very unlike the Bruins. Usily is dead last in red

950
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 2: zone efficiency. They've only scored twenty eight times in forty

951
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 2: four trips. They've only had twenty two tds. Only half

952
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 2: their drives past the twenty have been a touchdown. That's

953
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 2: a real problem. I mean, I can understand Chip Kelly

954
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 2: being under the gun for that, because that's supposed to

955
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 2: be your forte. I think the question is did the

956
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: firing of Alex Grinch help the defense against Oregon? Not really?

957
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,800
Speaker 2: I mean the Ducks had five hundred and fifty two yards. Yeah,

958
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: USU should win this game. I just don't know what's

959
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 2: going on with Chip Kelly in the red zone play calling,

960
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 2: because it's bad. They're one of the worst in the nation.

961
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:47,719
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, some of the calls of him horrendous, which

962
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 4: wouldn't If they can run the balls, you would think

963
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 4: they'd be better. But nope. All right, let's move on

964
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 4: to everybody's favorite segment. FC Yes or No makes its.

965
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:09,719
Speaker 1: Return Southland or SEC Big Sky or Big ten, it's

966
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 1: time to play FC yes or no?

967
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 4: All right, tin Horn weekend, we got to talk a

968
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 4: little bit about at least a couple of these games.

969
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 4: Chattanooga at Alabama.

970
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 3: Why did you push yourself?

971
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 4: What did I see Alabama like a forty five point favorite?

972
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 4: I think I saw that out there somewhere.

973
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 2: Our FCS power ratings.

974
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, Chattanooga they have They have a they have a

975
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 4: kid who's on like the UCLA Speaking of Chip Kell,

976
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 4: he's on like the UCLA scout team for four years,

977
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 4: transferred to Chattanooga. They have a couple of good receivers.

978
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 4: Uh saving as he always does with hyping the during

979
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 4: tin Horn week of hyping the Chattanooga offense saying that

980
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 4: they have all all their receivers could start in the SEC.

981
00:48:56,480 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 4: But they they run like an RPL. That offense don't

982
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,439
Speaker 4: really run the ball efficient league. They could throw it around.

983
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 4: They they do have some talented receivers. The problem is

984
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 4: offensive lines. I'll go to hold up here, so it's

985
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 4: hard for me to see how they'll score. The good

986
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:10,799
Speaker 4: news is if you want to back Chattanooga, is that

987
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 4: like mil Row. I mean, they're gonna get a lead

988
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 4: and then probably pull them and then Alabama's backup quarterbacks

989
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 4: even against Chattanooga. I mean, I doubt Albat's gonna want

990
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,480
Speaker 4: to show much. Maybe second half under here for me,

991
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:22,959
Speaker 4: what do you got here?

992
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:23,879
Speaker 2: I think?

993
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 4: And first it could be like Ty Simpson and the

994
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 4: second half handing it off.

995
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 2: So if you go on history like you'd want the

996
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 2: first half under right and ten horn weekend games against

997
00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 2: non conference teams. Saban is two and six against the

998
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 2: spread in his last eight. The two that have covered

999
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 2: were twenty seventeen Mercer, they were up thirty five to

1000
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 2: zero half, they.

1001
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:42,880
Speaker 4: Were losing the Citadel at the half that was.

1002
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:47,080
Speaker 2: They were tied to ten ten and a half. But

1003
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:49,800
Speaker 2: you know they're recent teams that they played Austin p

1004
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 2: Western Carolina twice, Tennessee Chat right here, and the Citadel.

1005
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 2: I mean, these are teams that have all covered in

1006
00:49:57,320 --> 00:49:59,240
Speaker 2: the first half in this spot and u T. Chat's

1007
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 2: coming off a three three point loss to Furman. Firman

1008
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 2: is like they're second in FCS top twenty five, and

1009
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 2: Chattanhoo has beaten teams like Mercer, who's in the top

1010
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 2: twenty five, and a short loss to Western Carolina who

1011
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 2: might win the FCS national title. You know, their offense

1012
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:17,840
Speaker 2: is twenty third and FCS they averaged thirty one points

1013
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 2: per game and their defense is twenty second. They allow

1014
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 2: it's a good team. It's not a pushover. So I

1015
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 2: think all that to be said because of history and

1016
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: the way Alabama treats these games, and they don't cover

1017
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 2: in the first half whatsoever. I want the first half

1018
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 2: on the MOX. They haven't released it as we were

1019
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,439
Speaker 2: talking about this right now that I would take twenty four.

1020
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 2: We'll see what the number is going to be. It's

1021
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 2: sitting around forty five right now, the full game spread.

1022
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to release halves B maybe

1023
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 2: untill Saturday morning, but I would definitely take first half

1024
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 2: twenty four in the MOX.

1025
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:50,760
Speaker 4: The Lions of North Alabama, they are not a decent

1026
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 4: SCS team. They will face their first FBS team on

1027
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 4: the road since the fifties when they played vanderd They

1028
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 4: will travel to Florida State. Florida State is, you know,

1029
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 4: a really interesting team just in general, because you know,

1030
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 4: they haven't played a ton of good teams. They've been

1031
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 4: so inconsistent. They're up and down. But they also have

1032
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 4: a lot of starters that have been hurt, and then

1033
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 4: they sit a bunch of starters like they rest guys

1034
00:51:17,400 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 4: a lot more than some of these top teams. So

1035
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 4: the data points for Florida State are really interesting. All Right,

1036
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:23,920
Speaker 4: They're not gonna matter in this game. I'll tell you

1037
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 4: that North of Alabama can't stop, and I know believe

1038
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 4: they are. I mean, you want to talk about ship

1039
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:36,320
Speaker 4: passing through a tin horn. North Alabama has no defense whatsoever.

1040
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 4: They have an intriguing offense. Your guy Brett Brett Deerman,

1041
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:48,239
Speaker 4: remember offensive former offensive coordinator at Kansas. Yeah, yeah, right right,

1042
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,720
Speaker 4: books on offense. He's the head coach there. Their offense

1043
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,799
Speaker 4: can like move the ball, bet but it's they just

1044
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 4: like turn it over all the time. They're inefficient in

1045
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 4: the red zone. They get a ton of penalties, and

1046
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 4: they can't stop anybody. But the offense like has you know,

1047
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 4: it's a well schemed offense. It's been a bit unlucky.

1048
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:08,479
Speaker 4: They've lost a ton of fumbles. The interesting part about

1049
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 4: this game North Alabama, who I think they just they

1050
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 4: lost it. They just lost a game like fifty two

1051
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:14,799
Speaker 4: to fifty. They can't if you look at all their

1052
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,320
Speaker 4: defensive metrics at the FCS level, they're all outside the

1053
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:21,520
Speaker 4: top hundred defense. So if Florida State cares, even if

1054
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 4: they don't care, they might they might get to sixty

1055
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 4: or seventy. Here, you'll probably have like Jordan Travis py

1056
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 4: pulled in the second quarter. It's senior day. There's a

1057
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 4: kid in Florida City at celebrating his third senior Day.

1058
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:34,279
Speaker 4: It's like, it's crazy. Their second string is better than

1059
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 4: FCS teams, Like they should be able to score it will.

1060
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:39,839
Speaker 4: The interesting part is like, what so I might look

1061
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 4: at the over here, like there's a chance Florida State

1062
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 4: would score seventy seven in this game, depending on how

1063
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 4: long their starters are in. I just don't see how

1064
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 4: North Albama was gonna get any stops. The interesting part

1065
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,800
Speaker 4: to me, though, is what is this North Alabama? What's

1066
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 4: Brent Deerman going to cook up? I mean, does he

1067
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 4: was he spent was he writing books? Was he writing

1068
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 4: chapters of books during the past week? Because they had

1069
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 4: by They're not going anywhere. This is their last game.

1070
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 4: I might look over here, but it's tough in the

1071
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 4: handicapp what do you got here?

1072
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 2: I was going to say, I think that so first

1073
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 2: off our numbers are FCS power rating numbers. We're going

1074
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 2: to make this fifty two and a half. If you

1075
00:53:15,200 --> 00:53:16,439
Speaker 2: go out and look at sound, I'm.

1076
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,400
Speaker 4: Going to guest fifty five, and I don't price these

1077
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,160
Speaker 4: lower tier yeah teames.

1078
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 2: If you go out to Sagarn, who does make totals

1079
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 2: between FCS and FBS crossovers, they make it fifty eight

1080
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 2: point eight. So I would play the over. I will

1081
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:32,200
Speaker 2: play the over with you at fifty nine or better.

1082
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: Absolutely on the open, I'll play that.

1083
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 4: Hell.

1084
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:36,520
Speaker 2: I might make it a best bet because it doesn't

1085
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 2: seem like I think we're there. Red Deerman can get

1086
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 2: the ball moved up and down the field. Now, Florida

1087
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 2: State doesn't seem like they want to play until they're challenged.

1088
00:53:48,160 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 2: And you know the other thing that's scary is that

1089
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 2: they have not gone over the total of fifty nine

1090
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 2: points since they played Boston College in Week three and

1091
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 2: they scored sixty. I mean, these games have been low.

1092
00:53:58,600 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 2: I would say that this is going to go over.

1093
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 2: We're only because maybe in North Alabama for two or

1094
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 2: three series is doing some crazy shit like not punting,

1095
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 2: going for it in their own territory or your spotted

1096
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 2: field position that like you're thirty or your forty sod.

1097
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 4: They turn it over. Yeah, yeah, I just don't How

1098
00:54:12,600 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 4: does Florida State not score it even if they're just late,

1099
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 4: Like North Alabama's d is so bad that like just

1100
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 4: the town Florida State is gonna break so many runs

1101
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:22,839
Speaker 4: and like, right, so.

1102
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 2: We need seven from North Alabama. I think we need seven,

1103
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 2: maybe ten.

1104
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 4: I think here's a time, but I think there's a

1105
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 4: chance that Florida State gets like seventy, like if they

1106
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 4: if they care from the jump.

1107
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 2: Well, if Norville is if he cares about his position

1108
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 2: in the college football Playoff, you're gonna need as many

1109
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:40,360
Speaker 2: style points as possible.

1110
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 4: All right, let's get to some trash.

1111
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:47,359
Speaker 2: The trash man pick of the week. I'm the trash man.

1112
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

1113
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,799
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependable it that's it.

1114
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 4: You've been told off. How do you like that?

1115
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:55,800
Speaker 1: Good?

1116
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 4: By the way, to our producer, he sent me a

1117
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 4: trash man uniform that I I cannot find the package.

1118
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 4: I don't know if my wife took it. We can't

1119
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:06,280
Speaker 4: find it. Another one got stuck in a Halloween.

1120
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 5: Box, stuck this producer Matt. I'd say, I can't believe

1121
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:12,839
Speaker 5: you lost the goddamn trash outfit that I sent you.

1122
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 5: But I did actually go to your house last year

1123
00:55:16,680 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 5: for Breeders Cup, And although there were many indelible images

1124
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:25,120
Speaker 5: left of actually seeing your home, the one that has

1125
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 5: burned into my consciousness is I have never in my

1126
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:34,760
Speaker 5: fucking life seen so many packages left on a front door.

1127
00:55:35,520 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 5: It was just a random Friday night, and there were

1128
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 5: thirty deliveries on your front steps. It looked like a

1129
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 5: fucking Salvation Army drop off. There were so many packages,

1130
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:49,439
Speaker 5: none of which we brought in when we went into

1131
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 5: your house. So if you ever send stuck you something,

1132
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:55,399
Speaker 5: make sure you know it's a singing telegram or something

1133
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:59,480
Speaker 5: where he has to physically interact with the delivery, or

1134
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 5: it's a going to be stolen or slowly dissolve into

1135
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 5: a snowbank in a year. So shame on you for

1136
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 5: losing that package, But shame on me. I should have

1137
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 5: known better.

1138
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 4: This week, only three trash picks. Let's go.

1139
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 2: Let's start with uh.

1140
00:56:14,920 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 4: I'll get everyone riled up on the group of five.

1141
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 4: Shout out the group of five pockets. Make sure we

1142
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 4: check that out their episodes out now always do a

1143
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 4: great job. Let's start by fading the Ponzi scheme. Pavia

1144
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 4: in New Mexico State, oh Man playing it with Auburn.

1145
00:56:32,280 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 4: I know they have Alabama on deck, but let's take

1146
00:56:35,360 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 4: a look. This is the same spot for Auburn every

1147
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:42,359
Speaker 4: single year they have a clown Week twelve and then

1148
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 4: they play Alabama. Usually they play like Georgia the week

1149
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 4: before this. It's usually a huge sandwich spot. Over the

1150
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 4: past five times they played a group of five or

1151
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 4: FCS team in this week, they've won them all by

1152
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 4: twenty four plus average margin of victory forty two, including

1153
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:57,839
Speaker 4: two games against Conference SAY schools. They blow out teams

1154
00:56:57,880 --> 00:56:59,719
Speaker 4: in this spot usually just like a get right wear

1155
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 4: anger since two thousand and five. For what it's broth,

1156
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,399
Speaker 4: Hugh Freeze twenty six, twelve and one against the spread

1157
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:07,360
Speaker 4: as a favorite of more than two touchdowns, most profitable

1158
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:11,919
Speaker 4: coach college football history as a favorite of two plus touchdowns,

1159
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 4: and he has a lot of familiarity with this team.

1160
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 4: He was at ne Mexico State, he was at Liberty

1161
00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 4: last year. He's a lot of familiar with Pavia. His

1162
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 4: Pavilla's legs are everything in this offense. I don't think

1163
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:23,560
Speaker 4: he's gonna play, So their quarterback is going to be out.

1164
00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,480
Speaker 4: They say he's questionable and he's limited. He's a hamstring injury.

1165
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 4: Why in God's name would you play Diego Pavilla at

1166
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:34,680
Speaker 4: Auburn with a hamstring injury. You already have locked into

1167
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 4: a bowl already or locked into the conference championship, and

1168
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 4: it's a hamstring and tweak it. He's done for the year.

1169
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 4: You're not winning this game. Why would you play anyone

1170
00:57:44,320 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 4: that you could think of that you want to rest

1171
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,280
Speaker 4: to rest up for the conference championship? You were asked here.

1172
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 4: Usto State has nothing to play for at all. The

1173
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:54,920
Speaker 4: talent mismatch in this game is so big it's ridiculous.

1174
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 4: I mean, look, you gotta give credit. I give credit

1175
00:57:57,080 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 4: in Mexico State, and they've cost me money three times

1176
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 4: since I faded them successfully three times. To start the year,

1177
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 4: New Mexico State lost a home to UMass who lost

1178
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:08,760
Speaker 4: by fifty at Auburn. Auburn's offense finally starting to find

1179
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 4: some rhythm, as you would expect with a Hugh Freeze offense,

1180
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,200
Speaker 4: brand new scheme, starting to find some things late in

1181
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 4: the year in Mexico State. This isn't in such a

1182
00:58:17,360 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 4: big step up in class. Their strength to schedule if

1183
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:23,640
Speaker 4: you go by Sager and ranks FCS teams is one

1184
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 4: fifty Southern Utah has a harder schedule. The next hardest

1185
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,680
Speaker 4: schedule in FPS one thirty three Liberty. Also in Conference USA.

1186
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 4: I mean, the Conference USA is such a joke. Auburn

1187
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 4: top thirty schedule just well out class to Mexico State here,

1188
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:39,439
Speaker 4: and I don't think the Mexico States quarterback's going to play,

1189
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 4: and I think they're going to send other starters. Give

1190
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:43,320
Speaker 4: me Auburn war Eagle. Freeze is a big favorite as

1191
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 4: always money.

1192
00:58:44,720 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you go back to the twenty fourteen,

1193
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen old Miss teams, whenever they would

1194
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:51,640
Speaker 2: have positions like this, because I wanted to find a

1195
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,840
Speaker 2: correlation between Hu Freeze coaching and SEC team and letting

1196
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: teams of this nature come in. I mean, if it's

1197
00:58:58,320 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 2: pretty ugly, right, press Terry in twenty fourteen forty eight

1198
00:59:01,680 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 2: to zero, U T. Martin twenty fifteen, Ole Miss beat

1199
00:59:05,120 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 2: him seventy six to three, and then next week beat

1200
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:09,880
Speaker 2: Fresno seventy three to twenty one. Twenty sixteen, That Ole

1201
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:12,440
Speaker 2: Miss team wasn't very good. It was just thirty eight

1202
00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:16,880
Speaker 2: to thirteen against Watford. Hugh Freeze takes these games extremely serious.

1203
00:59:16,880 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 2: He doesn't take the week off. Diavid doesn't play. I'm

1204
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 2: not sure how they get over eleven and a half,

1205
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:22,880
Speaker 2: which is their team total. But I agree with you

1206
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 2: all run all the way here.

1207
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:26,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it will be fade in the Mexico stated again next week.

1208
00:59:27,400 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 2: Did you see the payout though? Did you see what

1209
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 2: New Mexico State's getting paid out here?

1210
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 4: What?

1211
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:34,120
Speaker 2: One point eight million dollars? I mean, just take that check,

1212
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:36,560
Speaker 2: put in the pocket, get on the plane. I'm out.

1213
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 4: Newon Eastern CBS Sports Hour, my favorite time. Slow. Let's

1214
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 4: go to the Army. Army plus the points against Coastal.

1215
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 4: Here's another team. I don't think Coastal shows up. He

1216
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 4: us trash trash trash. Coastal has nothing to play for here.

1217
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:52,440
Speaker 4: They can clinch the division in the COFEN Championship next

1218
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 4: week against James Madison is giving nothing. Non conference matchup

1219
00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:58,920
Speaker 4: noon kick against a triple option. You know you need

1220
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:01,760
Speaker 4: when you face triple option, a focus, peak of practice

1221
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:04,520
Speaker 4: and a team that care. Like again, I think they'll

1222
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 4: sit all their hurt quarterbacks. I think that anyone else

1223
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 4: that's hurt, you probably sit here. And Coastal Carolina is

1224
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:14,360
Speaker 4: rundy stinks. Ninety eighth ne yards, ninety fifth rush play

1225
01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 4: success rate, one hundred and twentieth, power success rate, ninetieth

1226
01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 4: yards per carry allowed. That's not good against Army. Army

1227
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 4: needs this game to get the Bowl eligibility, so Army

1228
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 4: always shows up here their dog. I mean, for what

1229
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:32,400
Speaker 4: it's worth. Jeff munkin underdog more than a field goal

1230
01:00:32,640 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 4: twenty eight to thirteen and one against the spread, covered

1231
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:39,320
Speaker 4: by touchdown per game, fifth most profitable coach as a

1232
01:00:39,400 --> 01:00:41,680
Speaker 4: underdog of more than a field goal in college football history,

1233
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 4: talking out of seven hundred coaches since two thousand, I

1234
01:00:45,040 --> 01:00:48,240
Speaker 4: should say, yeah, give me a Army great spot here.

1235
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 4: I don't think Coastal gets off the bus and it's

1236
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 4: a good master for Army.

1237
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let you go down this road by yourself.

1238
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 2: I see it in the numbers, there's no doubt in that.

1239
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 2: But what the sam hell is going on with Coastal

1240
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 2: right now? Beating Marshall Old Dominion, Texas State Ethan Vasco

1241
01:01:03,880 --> 01:01:07,840
Speaker 2: is the quarterback, and it's not bad. I don't know

1242
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 2: what's going on in Coastal, like they're they're pulling rabbits

1243
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 2: out of that every week. So I'm gonna sit back.

1244
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:13,880
Speaker 2: I'll make sure this has a screen for some viewing.

1245
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,400
Speaker 2: I gottaigure out what's going on Coastal because they're doing

1246
01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 2: things they shouldn't be doing without Grayce and McCall.

1247
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:21,040
Speaker 4: Let's go one final one which might be the trashiest

1248
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:22,720
Speaker 4: of all season, but we're gonna back to data. You

1249
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:24,479
Speaker 4: know what the funniest thing is, we're about taking Houston

1250
01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 4: plus seven Nlwonku. They're really good. Defensive tackle might be

1251
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 4: out which is for nose tackle, which might be is concerning,

1252
01:01:31,080 --> 01:01:33,720
Speaker 4: but Houston's run day since getting healthier, is actually decent.

1253
01:01:33,840 --> 01:01:37,120
Speaker 4: They can't stop anyone through the air, but I mean

1254
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:40,400
Speaker 4: it's Alan Bowman and these receivers, so I think they

1255
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:42,520
Speaker 4: could do enough to slow down Holly Gordon and this.

1256
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 4: You never know who you're getting with Houston, Like just

1257
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:48,560
Speaker 4: every like they almost beat Texas and every other week

1258
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 4: they somebody who did just look like they never played

1259
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 4: football before. And in some weeks they look like they're

1260
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 4: a top twenty team. I mean, who knows what's going on.

1261
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 4: They need this game for probably Dana's job to get

1262
01:01:59,840 --> 01:02:03,560
Speaker 4: to a bowl. It's also their super Bowl and Senior

1263
01:02:03,640 --> 01:02:08,280
Speaker 4: Day brew in Oklahoma State season, and I think they

1264
01:02:08,280 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 4: match up pretty well. You just hope you get the

1265
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 4: good version of Donovan Smith. They and look I talked

1266
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 4: about Oklahoma State. They went, they won five in a row,

1267
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:22,760
Speaker 4: four of them were at home, and their opponents went

1268
01:02:22,800 --> 01:02:24,600
Speaker 4: one of twelve on fourth down with a negative eight

1269
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:28,280
Speaker 4: turnover margin. They had multiple non offensive scores, multiple short fields.

1270
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 4: They were just go back to that West Virginia game.

1271
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 4: That's the only game they won on the road in

1272
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 4: the Big twelve during that five game winning streak. The

1273
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:40,760
Speaker 4: game was even statistically, and then West Virginia just vomited

1274
01:02:40,760 --> 01:02:42,880
Speaker 4: in the fourth quarter to give it away. Defense is

1275
01:02:42,880 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 4: still vulnerable Oklahoma State. We saw that last week against UCF.

1276
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,400
Speaker 4: I think Smith can take advantage. And do you want

1277
01:02:48,400 --> 01:02:51,800
Speaker 4: to hear the biggest regression stat matchup of the season.

1278
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:54,800
Speaker 4: Number one team in the country on fourth down defense

1279
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 4: is Oklahoma State. Teams have only converted three out of

1280
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:04,439
Speaker 4: twenty fourth downs. You know, it's dead last in fourth

1281
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:07,959
Speaker 4: down conversion rate on offense, Houston, who has converted four

1282
01:03:08,000 --> 01:03:12,200
Speaker 4: of twenty on fourth downs. My prediction Houston goes three

1283
01:03:12,240 --> 01:03:15,760
Speaker 4: of three on fourth down, gets turnover look and beats

1284
01:03:15,800 --> 01:03:19,080
Speaker 4: Oklahoma State because there is nothing that would make me

1285
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 4: laugh more and be more fitting for Oklahoma State. Then

1286
01:03:22,680 --> 01:03:25,280
Speaker 4: the Big Twelve changes the rules to get them into

1287
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 4: the conference championship this weekend and they lose to Houston

1288
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 4: to bow out Coog's outright.

1289
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:33,000
Speaker 2: Okay, so I like Houston. I'm probably going to play

1290
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 2: this with you. Probably should grab it at seven before

1291
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:36,840
Speaker 2: he gets down to six and a half. The stat

1292
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 2: that I look for immediately when Oklahoma State is playing

1293
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 2: is are you good at standard downs containing explosives because

1294
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 2: that's where Olli Gordon has all his runs? And how

1295
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 2: are you when it comes to yards after contact and misstackles?

1296
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:56,080
Speaker 2: Houston is twelfth and standard downs explosive on defense, that

1297
01:03:56,240 --> 01:03:59,160
Speaker 2: is definitely an avenue to keep Olli Gordon from having

1298
01:03:59,240 --> 01:04:02,280
Speaker 2: explosive runs. And then what caught my eye this week

1299
01:04:02,400 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 2: is that Houston's defense somehow is eight and broken tackles

1300
01:04:06,480 --> 01:04:10,640
Speaker 2: allowed amazingly. You know, day we give Dana shit for

1301
01:04:11,160 --> 01:04:15,880
Speaker 2: you know, being loose in penalties, some sloppiness not discipline games.

1302
01:04:16,040 --> 01:04:18,440
Speaker 2: They're actually a very buttoned up group on defense when

1303
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 2: it comes to tackling. So I'm with you here, I

1304
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:23,320
Speaker 2: there's something is more wrong with that team to just

1305
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:24,360
Speaker 2: hang over from bedlam.

1306
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:26,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, second stary road game here, I think this numbers

1307
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:29,720
Speaker 4: have been inflated all right before we get to three

1308
01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:33,720
Speaker 4: and out colin on San Diego State totals been hot

1309
01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:36,080
Speaker 4: on these all year, unlike last.

1310
01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 2: Year as techovers.

1311
01:04:38,280 --> 01:04:41,040
Speaker 4: So this is you like these as texts. They were

1312
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:45,640
Speaker 4: taking on a surging Santase State Spartans team lines fourteen

1313
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 4: and a half totals forty nine and a half. The

1314
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:51,720
Speaker 4: San Diego State rundy is embarrassing. I mean it is

1315
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 4: so bad. Any metric is them and UAV or just poverty.

1316
01:04:55,960 --> 01:04:58,919
Speaker 4: So you would think Robinson and Cordera the santas A station,

1317
01:04:58,960 --> 01:05:01,440
Speaker 4: got'll run all over them. Everyone. Tonoise State's defense is

1318
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:04,080
Speaker 4: also improving. What do you see here over under?

1319
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:08,040
Speaker 2: The market is going down fast forty A being key,

1320
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 2: I'll take it over. If we get to forty eight.

1321
01:05:09,840 --> 01:05:11,439
Speaker 2: San Jose State's going to be able to get down

1322
01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 2: the field with their heavy rush attacks. Santo States one

1323
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty second defensively and rushing success rate. They're

1324
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:20,840
Speaker 2: going to get ran over, steam rolled here. And by

1325
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 2: the way, San Jose State's really hot right now. I

1326
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:25,480
Speaker 2: think the question is is will San Diego State be

1327
01:05:25,520 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 2: able to contribute. They run a lot of inside zone,

1328
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,200
Speaker 2: outside zone and man concepts, and San Jose State has

1329
01:05:31,240 --> 01:05:34,560
Speaker 2: been horrific against inside zone a man. They only have

1330
01:05:34,600 --> 01:05:37,919
Speaker 2: a forty percent success rate in stopping that. That's really bad.

1331
01:05:37,960 --> 01:05:40,240
Speaker 2: It's will blow national average. I'm not saying they're going

1332
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:42,360
Speaker 2: to convert into points. Really, when I take totals, it's

1333
01:05:42,360 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 2: about how many scoring opportunities are you going to create.

1334
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 2: San Diego State's going to have them in this game.

1335
01:05:47,320 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 2: Not saying they're going to convert them. It's been a

1336
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 2: little bit of a problem this year, but they are

1337
01:05:50,560 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 2: going to create opportunities. San Jose State is actually going

1338
01:05:53,240 --> 01:05:55,040
Speaker 2: to steam roll them on the offensive side of the ball.

1339
01:05:55,120 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 2: So here's the reason why you got to take the over.

1340
01:05:57,240 --> 01:05:59,880
Speaker 2: San Jose State is dead last in the nation and

1341
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:03,880
Speaker 2: red zone TD rate like twenty five of twenty eight, Yeah,

1342
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:06,120
Speaker 2: twenty five and twenty eight red zone attempts have been

1343
01:06:06,160 --> 01:06:08,880
Speaker 2: a touchdown. Twenty eight's on a lot of red zone attempts.

1344
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:10,960
Speaker 2: But man, when people get past the twenty, they're getting

1345
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:13,920
Speaker 2: touchdowns against Santase stayed, So I want you over here,

1346
01:06:13,960 --> 01:06:16,480
Speaker 2: but I am watching the market. Forty eight is the key.

1347
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:18,560
Speaker 4: And one final game before we got th right now,

1348
01:06:19,040 --> 01:06:21,720
Speaker 4: can't talk a lot of trash, some xds or now

1349
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 4: some ten horns, some shit passing through ten horns. But

1350
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 4: we have to save the absolute smelliest rubbish until last.

1351
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 4: Arkansas in the Corpse Bowl. The Corpse of Arkansas will

1352
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:41,880
Speaker 4: host the Corpse of FIU. Arkansas is a twenty nine

1353
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:45,000
Speaker 4: and a half point favorite over under his fifty games

1354
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 4: at seven thirty Eastern in primetime. One. Are you going to?

1355
01:06:49,400 --> 01:06:50,160
Speaker 4: Are you watching?

1356
01:06:51,560 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 2: Woo pick Sully?

1357
01:06:54,320 --> 01:06:56,080
Speaker 4: Absolute dumpster fire dumps for fine.

1358
01:06:56,120 --> 01:06:57,480
Speaker 2: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1359
01:06:57,480 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 2: of the year.

1360
01:06:58,120 --> 01:06:59,240
Speaker 4: Just blow the program up.

1361
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:04,960
Speaker 2: Give us a debt. Collins talking razorback football. One. I

1362
01:07:04,960 --> 01:07:08,600
Speaker 2: have my press credentials. I'm not going two. I am

1363
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:10,960
Speaker 2: definitely watching. I'm gonna have money on it. BET's got

1364
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:14,240
Speaker 2: to be Floria International. I mean, look, Arkansas. First off,

1365
01:07:14,280 --> 01:07:15,760
Speaker 2: the number is way too high. The numbers should be

1366
01:07:15,760 --> 01:07:19,840
Speaker 2: twenty six here's Arkansas's motivation, right, Pride, well that hasn't

1367
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:23,160
Speaker 2: shown up at all yet this year, and getting your

1368
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:26,040
Speaker 2: personal film ready for the portal. Piman talked this week

1369
01:07:26,080 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 2: about how all the play essentially said everybody's sitting the

1370
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,520
Speaker 2: portal after the Missouri game, like, we expect a lot

1371
01:07:31,520 --> 01:07:33,919
Speaker 2: of activity in the transfer portal after the Missouri game. Yep,

1372
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:36,400
Speaker 2: this is going to be a mass exodus for this team.

1373
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:39,000
Speaker 2: So I think the motivation for players on Arkansas themselves

1374
01:07:39,120 --> 01:07:41,640
Speaker 2: is to generate good film for the portal. I don't know.

1375
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:43,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what you're playing for. There's

1376
01:07:43,640 --> 01:07:45,800
Speaker 2: no bowl. Your coach could be out the door. If

1377
01:07:45,840 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 2: he's sticking around, do you want to play for him?

1378
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 2: The program is in complete disarray. It's not Chad Morris disarray.

1379
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:53,160
Speaker 2: Our producer doesn't need to cut it and add it

1380
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:54,919
Speaker 2: to that little excerpt, but it's bad.

1381
01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 4: Please.

1382
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:03,560
Speaker 2: But Mike McIntyre and his press conference this week spoke

1383
01:08:03,720 --> 01:08:06,320
Speaker 2: very highly of Sam Pitman said, we're old friends. They

1384
01:08:06,320 --> 01:08:08,800
Speaker 2: were never on staff together anywhere, but they're old friends,

1385
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:11,120
Speaker 2: and he's pulling for Sam in the situation. He's in

1386
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 2: all the good stuff that you would expect to hear

1387
01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:15,240
Speaker 2: from two guys that are actually friends. So the under

1388
01:08:15,360 --> 01:08:17,200
Speaker 2: an FIU is the player. It's going to be an

1389
01:08:17,280 --> 01:08:19,920
Speaker 2: ugly ball game. I will find a quadrant in my

1390
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:24,160
Speaker 2: sixteen screen grid to get Arkansas on, but it's it's

1391
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 2: so gross. Just we need the season to end. Oh,

1392
01:08:26,320 --> 01:08:28,679
Speaker 2: by the way, do you know who hates Arkansas? Drink

1393
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,360
Speaker 2: and Missouri. We've only beat Missouri once since Drink's been

1394
01:08:32,400 --> 01:08:32,919
Speaker 2: at Missouri.

1395
01:08:33,000 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 4: Like, well, I don't show up for that game.

1396
01:08:34,960 --> 01:08:37,320
Speaker 2: No, no, but Drink.

1397
01:08:37,600 --> 01:08:40,640
Speaker 4: Uh so Drink. Let's run it out before we get

1398
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:43,400
Speaker 4: out of here. Let's go right out.

1399
01:08:43,720 --> 01:08:45,880
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1400
01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:48,719
Speaker 4: All right, first down, Friday night lights.

1401
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:53,880
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts. Let's go play some.

1402
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 4: Fall The speaking of corpses, the corpse of Washington State

1403
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 4: was ranked in four and out. They've lost six straight

1404
01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:04,479
Speaker 4: and they won't even go to I guess they could

1405
01:09:04,520 --> 01:09:06,920
Speaker 4: go to a bowl. They gotta win out against Colorado

1406
01:09:06,920 --> 01:09:09,639
Speaker 4: and Washington four and a half point favorites here over

1407
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:12,920
Speaker 4: under sixty two and a half. Colorado has been covering

1408
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:14,840
Speaker 4: machine of late. Even though they're not winning games, they're

1409
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:18,120
Speaker 4: also four and six. Need to win out against Washington

1410
01:09:18,120 --> 01:09:21,000
Speaker 4: State and UCLA, it's a little more. I guess they

1411
01:09:21,000 --> 01:09:23,960
Speaker 4: have a better chance of Washington State because who knows

1412
01:09:23,960 --> 01:09:26,360
Speaker 4: what's going on excuse me Utah. They go to Utah,

1413
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:29,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, I doubt it. Sorry, Colorado fans. Will Colorado

1414
01:09:29,200 --> 01:09:32,479
Speaker 4: drop eight? They do, they'll slow down Washington State. The

1415
01:09:32,520 --> 01:09:34,920
Speaker 4: problem is like Colorado can't really run it, but will

1416
01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:36,640
Speaker 4: they just run it more? Anyone could just run on

1417
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:39,760
Speaker 4: Washington State. It's interesting match up there. I guess i'd

1418
01:09:39,800 --> 01:09:41,920
Speaker 4: lean Colorado. I don't think if you could Washington Washington

1419
01:09:41,960 --> 01:09:45,280
Speaker 4: State really lank points to anybody. What do you see here?

1420
01:09:45,280 --> 01:09:47,240
Speaker 4: You've been the Colorado whisper all year? What do you say?

1421
01:09:47,479 --> 01:09:50,080
Speaker 2: I know, I know. And the thing that popped off

1422
01:09:50,080 --> 01:09:52,519
Speaker 2: the page for me here is an under. I did

1423
01:09:52,560 --> 01:09:56,000
Speaker 2: take an under, took it earlier today. Sixty two is key,

1424
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:57,880
Speaker 2: fifty nine is key, So see what you can get.

1425
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:01,760
Speaker 2: But you know, I could go through all the notes

1426
01:10:01,760 --> 01:10:04,120
Speaker 2: in the game, which kind of lead me to want

1427
01:10:04,120 --> 01:10:07,280
Speaker 2: to take a Wazu side. When you consider what cal

1428
01:10:07,320 --> 01:10:09,840
Speaker 2: did to Washington State, it was all jade, not all

1429
01:10:09,880 --> 01:10:14,120
Speaker 2: of the running turnovers. Cam Ward's you know, throw an interception,

1430
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:16,840
Speaker 2: he can't hold onto the ball, and none of that

1431
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:18,360
Speaker 2: is what Colorado is going to be able to do

1432
01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:20,479
Speaker 2: to them, because Colorado throws behind the line of scrimmage

1433
01:10:20,479 --> 01:10:23,280
Speaker 2: and expects explosives to happen there. And I'm not sure

1434
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:25,040
Speaker 2: that that's what the formula is going to be here.

1435
01:10:25,080 --> 01:10:28,120
Speaker 2: But the most important thing and also Colorado does not

1436
01:10:28,360 --> 01:10:31,680
Speaker 2: generate any havoc whatsoever. If you want cam Wore to implode,

1437
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:33,400
Speaker 2: you have to generate a little bit of havoc. That

1438
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:36,040
Speaker 2: Colorado has no tackles for loss. They've only forced seven

1439
01:10:36,040 --> 01:10:39,120
Speaker 2: fumbles this year and they're ninetieth in PBUs. So a

1440
01:10:39,200 --> 01:10:42,000
Speaker 2: cam Moore get healthy game, this could probably be it.

1441
01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:44,160
Speaker 2: But I think this game's under all the way. And

1442
01:10:44,320 --> 01:10:45,800
Speaker 2: one thing that I've kept my eye on is since

1443
01:10:45,800 --> 01:10:47,640
Speaker 2: they made the announcement that Pat Shermer was going to

1444
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:50,160
Speaker 2: come in and take over the offense and remove Sean Lewis. Well,

1445
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:52,760
Speaker 2: Sean Lewis is the inventor of the flash fast. Sean

1446
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:56,080
Speaker 2: Lewis wants plays to happen every nineteen seconds, So I've

1447
01:10:56,120 --> 01:10:59,320
Speaker 2: been watching the clock ever since this was announced against

1448
01:10:59,400 --> 01:11:03,320
Speaker 2: UCLA twenty four seconds per play. Now, at that point,

1449
01:11:03,360 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 2: Colorado had average about twenty two and a half seconds

1450
01:11:05,400 --> 01:11:07,720
Speaker 2: per play. They fell down to twenty four last week

1451
01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:11,479
Speaker 2: against Arizona. Twenty nine seconds per play. And I'm watching

1452
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:13,400
Speaker 2: the game and I'm seeing them walk up to the

1453
01:11:13,439 --> 01:11:17,160
Speaker 2: line of square. There's no haste, no urgency. Twenty nine

1454
01:11:17,240 --> 01:11:20,000
Speaker 2: seconds per play. They are now slower than Washington State.

1455
01:11:20,040 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 2: If that keeps up this week, I took an under.

1456
01:11:22,120 --> 01:11:24,840
Speaker 2: The offensive pace isn't going to be there. The explosiveness,

1457
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:26,639
Speaker 2: sure shit, ain't going to be there. When your average

1458
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:29,360
Speaker 2: depth of targets like three yards. I don't expect Washington

1459
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:32,639
Speaker 2: State to score against his defense. Colorado is actually really

1460
01:11:32,640 --> 01:11:35,680
Speaker 2: good defensive finishing drives. So I'm taking the under in

1461
01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:38,599
Speaker 2: this game. I think this Colorado offense is way slower

1462
01:11:38,600 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 2: than it has been through the first half.

1463
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:42,439
Speaker 4: Of the year. All right, good stuff there, Colin has

1464
01:11:42,479 --> 01:11:44,479
Speaker 4: been the Colorado whisper. I was going to second on

1465
01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:47,280
Speaker 4: our favorite overdog. For those new here, that's just our

1466
01:11:47,280 --> 01:11:48,120
Speaker 4: favorite favorite.

1467
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:50,320
Speaker 2: It's called the Overdogs Parlay.

1468
01:11:50,240 --> 01:11:52,679
Speaker 4: The next week. We will have all of our content

1469
01:11:52,760 --> 01:11:56,280
Speaker 4: for NFL fantasy and college football out for you by

1470
01:11:56,320 --> 01:11:59,920
Speaker 4: Wednesday morning, So pray for us and our producers next week.

1471
01:12:00,439 --> 01:12:02,920
Speaker 4: But the favorite favorite. I'll start to go to Auburn already

1472
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:05,559
Speaker 4: talked about it earlier. I don't think Hobby is going

1473
01:12:05,600 --> 01:12:07,640
Speaker 4: to play. But even if he does, huge step up

1474
01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:09,400
Speaker 4: in class here in Mexico say nothing really to play

1475
01:12:09,400 --> 01:12:13,160
Speaker 4: for Hugh Freeze the big favorite. Go give me Auburn.

1476
01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:13,720
Speaker 4: Where you going?

1477
01:12:13,920 --> 01:12:16,559
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do Texas against Iowa State. The question is

1478
01:12:16,640 --> 01:12:19,840
Speaker 2: can Texas survive the Matt Campbell three three to five stack.

1479
01:12:20,080 --> 01:12:22,200
Speaker 2: Because Jonathan Brooks is out, the running game is going

1480
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:24,040
Speaker 2: to lean on CJ. Baxter, but more it's going to

1481
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:26,280
Speaker 2: be about quinn Ewers his arm, and the answer is yes,

1482
01:12:26,320 --> 01:12:30,000
Speaker 2: they can absolutely survive. Youwers saw this Iowa State defense

1483
01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 2: last year was the first time he had seen a

1484
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 2: three three five stack. In twenty twenty two. In Week seven,

1485
01:12:34,200 --> 01:12:36,479
Speaker 2: he threw three tds, no I iNTS. He just had

1486
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:39,439
Speaker 2: a single throwing mistake that day. At the back of

1487
01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:42,040
Speaker 2: that three three five for Iowa State is a quarters coverage.

1488
01:12:42,320 --> 01:12:45,400
Speaker 2: Quinn Ewers sixty percent success rate against quarters this year

1489
01:12:45,400 --> 01:12:49,160
Speaker 2: and a positive explosive number from an EPA perspective. So

1490
01:12:49,840 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 2: when you flip over the other side, rock Obeck, it's

1491
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:54,080
Speaker 2: going to be all on him because Eli Sanders is

1492
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:56,120
Speaker 2: no juice running the ball whatsoever, and you're not going

1493
01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:58,559
Speaker 2: to have any juice against this Texas front seven. And

1494
01:12:58,560 --> 01:13:00,559
Speaker 2: then rock Obeck is going to be expected. In the past,

1495
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:03,240
Speaker 2: Texas also runs a lot of quarters and coverage. Rock

1496
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:06,719
Speaker 2: Obeck has struggled against that all season long. Gimme Texas.

1497
01:13:06,760 --> 01:13:08,639
Speaker 2: I know they're on the road. People are gonna try

1498
01:13:08,640 --> 01:13:13,160
Speaker 2: to tell you aims, but schematically, viewers dominates this three three,

1499
01:13:13,240 --> 01:13:14,639
Speaker 2: five stacks, So let's keep it going.

1500
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:16,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just don't think this inefficient Iowa State offense

1501
01:13:17,000 --> 01:13:20,719
Speaker 4: can either can consistently do anything also against this Texas

1502
01:13:20,800 --> 01:13:23,479
Speaker 4: d All right, let's move on to third down, and

1503
01:13:23,840 --> 01:13:27,360
Speaker 4: that's our money line underdog parlay.

1504
01:13:29,040 --> 01:13:32,360
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1505
01:13:32,880 --> 01:13:35,440
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1506
01:13:36,560 --> 01:13:40,200
Speaker 4: All right, favorite money line underdogs. I'll start Army already

1507
01:13:40,200 --> 01:13:42,400
Speaker 4: talked about this earlier. I don't think Coastal really shows

1508
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:45,200
Speaker 4: up here, and their run D is bad revenge here

1509
01:13:45,200 --> 01:13:47,840
Speaker 4: for Army. Also, maybe the Black Knights as a dog.

1510
01:13:47,880 --> 01:13:48,360
Speaker 4: Where you going?

1511
01:13:48,600 --> 01:13:52,799
Speaker 2: Speaking of triples, let's go go go UNLV here elevation

1512
01:13:52,920 --> 01:13:55,800
Speaker 2: and four collins a problem. Probably not UNLV went to

1513
01:13:55,880 --> 01:13:58,240
Speaker 2: Reno they went to Albuquerque, they won on the road

1514
01:13:58,240 --> 01:14:00,360
Speaker 2: there about the same elevation, so I don't see that

1515
01:14:00,400 --> 01:14:02,960
Speaker 2: being a problem against air Force. The place to attack

1516
01:14:03,000 --> 01:14:05,439
Speaker 2: the UNL that be on defense is with the pass.

1517
01:14:05,520 --> 01:14:07,519
Speaker 2: That's just not going to happen with air Force. You're

1518
01:14:07,560 --> 01:14:09,679
Speaker 2: going to go into the best part of unl's defense,

1519
01:14:09,720 --> 01:14:12,280
Speaker 2: which is the run. Barry Odom runs that three three

1520
01:14:12,360 --> 01:14:16,120
Speaker 2: feet three three five stack himself. He is all about

1521
01:14:16,160 --> 01:14:20,479
Speaker 2: max protect against explosive plays. There's seventeenth in defending rush explosives,

1522
01:14:20,479 --> 01:14:22,160
Speaker 2: So I don't expect air Force to be able to

1523
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:24,559
Speaker 2: gash and get anything down the field. There's no real

1524
01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:26,400
Speaker 2: stats for UNLB to say they're going to stop the

1525
01:14:26,439 --> 01:14:28,639
Speaker 2: fullback dive, they're going to stop pulling Lineman. I mean,

1526
01:14:28,720 --> 01:14:30,960
Speaker 2: who's really seen that. Hawaii hadn't seen it. They did

1527
01:14:31,040 --> 01:14:33,920
Speaker 2: just fine. But in UNLV's got to create a little

1528
01:14:33,920 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 2: bit of have it. But really this is all about

1529
01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:36,840
Speaker 2: what they do on the other side of the ball

1530
01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:37,559
Speaker 2: with that go go af.

1531
01:14:37,600 --> 01:14:39,599
Speaker 4: The Air Forces quarterback is probably out by the way.

1532
01:14:39,640 --> 01:14:41,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that Air Force sack larrier is going to

1533
01:14:41,720 --> 01:14:43,400
Speaker 2: be out here. And then when you get to Jensen

1534
01:14:43,520 --> 01:14:47,160
Speaker 2: Jones Jones, their new quarterback. He was not good last

1535
01:14:47,160 --> 01:14:49,400
Speaker 2: week running that offense. He cannot protect the ball, he

1536
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:52,360
Speaker 2: can't run the play action. The triple was a real

1537
01:14:52,439 --> 01:14:55,759
Speaker 2: problem for him. So Air Force's offense is just broke.

1538
01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:57,880
Speaker 2: I mean, ten turnovers the last two weeks to Army

1539
01:14:57,880 --> 01:14:59,840
Speaker 2: and Hawaii. It's really taking them out of the mountain,

1540
01:14:59,840 --> 01:15:03,800
Speaker 2: we out of the conversation everywhere. The UNLV offense. If

1541
01:15:03,840 --> 01:15:05,719
Speaker 2: you have not seen, if you're listening to this podcast

1542
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:07,280
Speaker 2: and you listen to the G five and you haven't

1543
01:15:07,320 --> 01:15:09,719
Speaker 2: seen this Brendon Marion offense. It's coming to a Power

1544
01:15:09,760 --> 01:15:12,280
Speaker 2: five conference soon, three heads ahead of it.

1545
01:15:12,280 --> 01:15:14,559
Speaker 4: Remember I was so excited about this at a Hawaii

1546
01:15:14,640 --> 01:15:16,000
Speaker 4: and then they just never went to it.

1547
01:15:16,040 --> 01:15:19,200
Speaker 2: Fully, Yeah, people just didn't want Brendan Mariyan Like I

1548
01:15:19,200 --> 01:15:21,680
Speaker 2: don't know, people think that it's a gimmicky offense. I

1549
01:15:21,720 --> 01:15:23,519
Speaker 2: am dying to see this at the Power five level.

1550
01:15:23,560 --> 01:15:26,320
Speaker 2: And the reason why two hundred and sixty six snaps

1551
01:15:26,320 --> 01:15:28,719
Speaker 2: in twenty one, two hundred and fifty snaps and eleven

1552
01:15:28,920 --> 01:15:32,120
Speaker 2: seventy eight snaps in twelve, and my favorite forty five

1553
01:15:32,160 --> 01:15:34,799
Speaker 2: snaps in twenty two and thirty three snaps in twenty

1554
01:15:35,120 --> 01:15:38,040
Speaker 2: you're gonna get two tight end sets, two running back sets,

1555
01:15:38,160 --> 01:15:40,960
Speaker 2: and sets with two running backs and two tight ends

1556
01:15:41,000 --> 01:15:43,880
Speaker 2: all mixed in all over the place. They're three headed

1557
01:15:43,960 --> 01:15:47,719
Speaker 2: running back monster of Vincent Davis, Jayden Thomas, Donovan Lester.

1558
01:15:47,760 --> 01:15:51,360
Speaker 2: They're all averaging near three yards after contact. They've each

1559
01:15:51,360 --> 01:15:54,879
Speaker 2: busted five explosives. They've combined to create fifty eight missed tackles.

1560
01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:58,679
Speaker 2: And their quarterback Jaden Maeva, he is finally running the ball.

1561
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:02,040
Speaker 2: He had his most carries against Wyoming last week, two

1562
01:16:02,080 --> 01:16:05,240
Speaker 2: touchdowns on the ground. These guys are a juggernaut to

1563
01:16:05,240 --> 01:16:07,880
Speaker 2: put up with. When you talk about Kansas State and

1564
01:16:07,920 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 2: their counter and their motion, and they're what they do

1565
01:16:10,240 --> 01:16:12,800
Speaker 2: in the pre snap that confuses everybody with their formations.

1566
01:16:13,320 --> 01:16:15,479
Speaker 2: That's what Brenda Maryon and the UNLV offense does. I

1567
01:16:15,479 --> 01:16:18,400
Speaker 2: can't wait to see it. Air force is broke. Let's

1568
01:16:18,439 --> 01:16:19,000
Speaker 2: go UNLV.

1569
01:16:19,479 --> 01:16:21,200
Speaker 4: And you don't even mentioned Ricky White, who's the best

1570
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:24,160
Speaker 4: receiver in the conference, Michigan State transfer. He's over one

1571
01:16:24,160 --> 01:16:28,000
Speaker 4: thousand yards. He's an absolute monster on the outside. Yeah,

1572
01:16:28,000 --> 01:16:30,160
Speaker 4: I agree with this one. And you finally learned that

1573
01:16:30,200 --> 01:16:32,360
Speaker 4: the last week, so you can call him money line

1574
01:16:32,400 --> 01:16:37,120
Speaker 4: dog against the Service Academy as a favor son parlay

1575
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:40,600
Speaker 4: Service Academy as an underdog and an underdog against the

1576
01:16:40,640 --> 01:16:44,040
Speaker 4: Service Academy. All right, that'll do it for us. Thanks

1577
01:16:44,320 --> 01:16:46,640
Speaker 4: as always to Colin and our producers on the back end.

1578
01:16:46,680 --> 01:16:50,160
Speaker 4: Most importantly, thanks to all of you for tuning in

1579
01:16:50,280 --> 01:16:53,760
Speaker 4: and listening and supporting the pod or video ten thirty

1580
01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:56,919
Speaker 4: eight Eastern Saturday. We'll be back for BBOC Live recap

1581
01:16:57,000 --> 01:16:59,320
Speaker 4: show be out by Monday morning with a quick look

1582
01:16:59,360 --> 01:17:01,439
Speaker 4: at the week twelve. Don't forget up the voicemails nine

1583
01:17:01,479 --> 01:17:03,840
Speaker 4: to five to nine Bad Beat group of five guys.

1584
01:17:03,840 --> 01:17:05,360
Speaker 4: Make sure you check them out. Their episodes already out

1585
01:17:05,400 --> 01:17:08,160
Speaker 4: every Wednesday. They'll be back next week. We will also

1586
01:17:08,200 --> 01:17:10,479
Speaker 4: be back and everything will be out by Wednesday morning

1587
01:17:10,520 --> 01:17:15,880
Speaker 4: for you for a glorious weekend of football, starting with

1588
01:17:15,920 --> 01:17:19,479
Speaker 4: some action on Wednesday into Thanksgiving and then throughout the weekend.

1589
01:17:20,160 --> 01:17:23,559
Speaker 4: So we appreciate you guys all tuning in, So we

1590
01:17:23,600 --> 01:17:26,320
Speaker 4: want to make sure that you have all the content

1591
01:17:26,400 --> 01:17:29,559
Speaker 4: you need to consume before Wednesday morning. So I up.

1592
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:32,439
Speaker 4: People have crazy holiday schedule. Save travels to everyone traveling

1593
01:17:32,439 --> 01:17:35,240
Speaker 4: for the holiday. Make sure you subscribe on subscribe subscribe,

1594
01:17:35,520 --> 01:17:37,240
Speaker 4: tell a friend, tell Adami know the drill, leave a

1595
01:17:37,280 --> 01:17:38,760
Speaker 4: review five star review that really helped us with a

1596
01:17:38,760 --> 01:17:40,720
Speaker 4: bunch of good ways. Last week, we'll do some more

1597
01:17:41,080 --> 01:17:42,679
Speaker 4: five for us to go find some last minute winters.

1598
01:17:42,720 --> 01:17:44,679
Speaker 4: We'll see y'all on Saturday morning. Cheers.

1599
01:17:44,960 --> 01:17:57,800
Speaker 2: Peas out.

1600
01:17:57,920 --> 01:18:02,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please please gamble responsibly. If you

1601
01:18:02,360 --> 01:18:05,120
Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1602
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