Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. October seventh, twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: one year ago today.
Speaker 2: Very early this morning, Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip
Speaker 2: began shooting thousands of rockets at Israel. Mus fights has
Speaker 2: broke past the Gaza Israel Borda.
Speaker 1: Entering Israel by land, air and sea.
Speaker 2: Taking people hostage, gunning people down in the streets of
Speaker 2: their talents, gunning them down in their.
Speaker 1: Homes, dragging Israelis men, women and children across the border
Speaker 1: with Gaza. It was the culmination of decades of festering tensions.
Speaker 1: Last October seventh, over one thousand Israelis were killed and
Speaker 1: about two hundred and fifty taken hostage, and within hours
Speaker 1: Israel declared war on Hamas, immediately consuming the Gaza Strip
Speaker 1: in violence. Fighting has escalated in the Middle East as
Speaker 1: Israel ramps up its attacks on the Islamic militant group Hamas.
Speaker 1: Palestinian death toll has past for thirty thousand. The hunger
Speaker 1: situation in northern Gaza has become increasingly dark. What was
Speaker 1: once a home and a warehouse sheltering displaced people is
Speaker 1: now a pile of rubble.
Speaker 3: Morgues overflowing families crammed into overcrowded schools, desperate for food
Speaker 3: and water.
Speaker 1: Almost forty two thousand people have been killed by Israel's
Speaker 1: operations in Gaza, according to the Hamas run health ministry.
Speaker 1: The fighting has since drawn in the entire region and
Speaker 1: its animated activists around the world, and things have escalated
Speaker 1: in recent weeks. Iran fired some two hundred ballistic missiles
Speaker 1: on Israel in response to the attacks on Hasbulah and
Speaker 1: the killing of a Hamas leader. The two nations are
Speaker 1: now engaged in direct armed confrontation. Israel also sent troops
Speaker 1: into southern Lebanon last week and is waging an air
Speaker 1: offensive there aimed at Hasbulah. More than fifteen hundred people
Speaker 1: have been killed in Lebanon by Israel's airstrikes in recent weeks,
Speaker 1: and around one million have been displaced, according to local officials. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: Israel and Hamas continue to exchange fire in Gaza.
Speaker 2: The notion that Israel had kind of become comfortable in
Speaker 2: its place with having militias next to it.
Speaker 3: Hamas and Gaza his in Lebanon.
Speaker 2: There was a notion that, okay, they were dangerous, but
Speaker 2: we could take it we're fine, We've got it under control.
Speaker 2: That was all reversed by what happened.
Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerat.
Speaker 1: Today on the show, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Israel Bureau
Speaker 1: chief Ethan Brahner to take us from then to now,
Speaker 1: to reflect on how the October seventh attack has transformed
Speaker 1: the region and to talk about what comes next. Ethan,
Speaker 1: it's been a year since the October seventh attack, and
Speaker 1: a broad question to start, I'm just curious how much
Speaker 1: Israel has changed since then.
Speaker 2: David, I would say that the October seventh attack was
Speaker 2: one of the most impactful acts of terrorism.
Speaker 3: In decades anywhere on the globe.
Speaker 2: Israel became a broken society as a result of what
Speaker 2: happened on October seventh. It fractured the place numerous places
Speaker 2: in numerous ways. It gave the citizens a sense that
Speaker 2: they couldn't trust the contract that they had with their
Speaker 2: state and their army. And it also gave the impression
Speaker 2: around the region that the vaunted Israeli security.
Speaker 3: Apparatus was today a paper tigers.
Speaker 2: So it was absolutely a very very significant event.
Speaker 1: Could people have imagined how wide how broad this military
Speaker 1: campaign has gotten.
Speaker 3: I think that when.
Speaker 2: Israel was penetrated on October seventh, and there was this
Speaker 2: incredible sense of vulnerability and this notion that it was
Speaker 2: time to rethink the strategy of the country.
Speaker 3: Everything was open. There was an.
Speaker 2: Amazing sense of vulnerability, which made it hard to imagine
Speaker 2: too many daring actions right away. But I think that
Speaker 2: the notion that Israel had kind of become comfortable in
Speaker 2: its place with having militias next to it Humas in Gaza,
Speaker 2: his Bellah in Lebanon, there was a notion that, okay,
Speaker 2: they were dangerous, but we could take it. We're fine,
Speaker 2: We've got it under control. There deterred. One phrase that
Speaker 2: you heard is better comas and chaos in Gaza. That
Speaker 2: was all reversed by what happened. All of this became
Speaker 2: a sudden notion that Israel needed to rethink how it
Speaker 2: moved forwards strategically in the region.
Speaker 3: And that's what we've seen.
Speaker 1: We've talked about the effect that this has had on
Speaker 1: Israeli society. Let's look at Palestinian society. How much has
Speaker 1: that been disrupted by what's happened in the last year.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, it has been a horrible year to
Speaker 2: be a Palestinian on the ground. So let's begin with Gaza.
Speaker 2: Israel the same day began bombing very intensively, and then
Speaker 2: within a few weeks brought its true and tanks and
Speaker 2: artillery to bear as well down hard on Gaza. So
Speaker 2: we now have a section of tiny coastal strip with
Speaker 2: two point two or three million people that have lost
Speaker 2: over forty one thousand people as fest we can tell,
Speaker 2: and large portions reduced to rubble, I mean.
Speaker 3: Truly unlivable. This has been a terrible.
Speaker 2: Time to be in godz of people have been uprooted constantly,
Speaker 2: many many, many homes and institutions have been destroyed. In
Speaker 2: the West Bank, where Palestinians had been until the seventh
Speaker 2: of October, a couple of one hundred thousand coming into
Speaker 2: Israel working the economy was actually doing much better than
Speaker 2: in previous years. All of that shut down, there were
Speaker 2: huge numbers of checkpoints, people couldn't move, people couldn't work,
Speaker 2: people couldn't make any money, and settlers, Jewish settlers started
Speaker 2: to express their anger about the Palestinian attack on Israel,
Speaker 2: and there were cars burned and so forth, and the
Speaker 2: fact that this.
Speaker 3: The police force, which.
Speaker 2: Is led by a very right wing member of the
Speaker 2: Israeli government, did little to get in the way of
Speaker 2: those settler activities made it all the worse.
Speaker 3: So it's been a terrible time to be Palestinian.
Speaker 1: I remember, not long after the attack, he wrote about
Speaker 1: how it kind of led to Israel coalescing around what
Speaker 1: a lot of Israeli saw as this existential threat in Gaza.
Speaker 1: How has that sense of unity shifted?
Speaker 3: That is absolutely true.
Speaker 2: Let's remember that before October seventh, the previous eight or
Speaker 2: nine months, the country was deeply divided over plans by
Speaker 2: the Natanyahu government to shift the role of the courts,
Speaker 2: and from the point of view of many who were
Speaker 2: liberals and on the left, it was an attempt to
Speaker 2: reduce the democratic nature of Israeli society. So there was
Speaker 2: an incredible amount of division, and many believed that that
Speaker 2: division offered Israel's enemies the reason to believe that this
Speaker 2: was a.
Speaker 3: Good moment to attack.
Speaker 2: So that happened, and then indeed there was an incredible,
Speaker 2: almost exit stential sense that this is a moment when
Speaker 2: the country needs to come together, and did come together.
Speaker 3: Let's not forget there were two hundred.
Speaker 2: And fifty hostages taken in, there were twelve hundred dead people.
Speaker 2: There was a sense of violation of group fate that
Speaker 2: took over. So that was true for many months. It
Speaker 2: remains to an large extent true. But you know, it's
Speaker 2: been a year and the question of how this war
Speaker 2: should go forward it has started to play again.
Speaker 3: Everyone.
Speaker 1: About a week ago we saw Israel launch this incursion
Speaker 1: into Lebanon, these targeted attacks. What does that say to
Speaker 1: you about the strategy going forward here? How much of
Speaker 1: an escalation is that as you see it.
Speaker 2: Look, anytime you bring in ground troops and tanks, it's
Speaker 2: a massive escalation. It's a very big difference from just
Speaker 2: shooting from the air. But let's remember what Israel believes,
Speaker 2: whether true or not, is another question. It believes that
Speaker 2: sixty five thousand residents in the north who've been internal
Speaker 2: refugees for the last year have not been able to
Speaker 2: live in their homes because of his Bella's firing missiles
Speaker 2: and the fear that his Bela right up against the
Speaker 2: border could actually come in in a similar maneuver of
Speaker 2: the October seventh.
Speaker 3: But Hamastid in.
Speaker 2: The south, so their belief is they need to quote
Speaker 2: unquote clean the area within a few kilometers of the
Speaker 2: border and make it impossible for his Belah to shoot
Speaker 2: and to use that as a staging ground.
Speaker 3: So I don't know how long that will take.
Speaker 2: And of course, if there are soldiers that are taken
Speaker 2: hostage or captured, I mean, anything could happen.
Speaker 3: We really don't know.
Speaker 1: The White House had counseled Israel against this latest incursion
Speaker 1: in Lebanon, an effort to avoid wider conflict that clearly failed.
Speaker 3: After the break.
Speaker 1: What's likely to happen next between Israel and the US
Speaker 1: and where this widening conflict could go from here. About
Speaker 1: a week ago, Israel sent troops into southern Lebanon in
Speaker 1: what it called an effort to combat his Bulah, which
Speaker 1: is considered a terrorist organization by the US and many
Speaker 1: other countries. This incursion was something that the White House
Speaker 1: had counseled Israel against. I asked Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief
Speaker 1: Ethan Bronner, what it means that Israel went ahead with it.
Speaker 2: The truth is that the United States has very rarely
Speaker 2: been able to tell Israel what to do militarily generally,
Speaker 2: I mean, in previous decades it had slightly more influence,
Speaker 2: it might be said. But what's interesting is over the
Speaker 2: last three or four decades, is Israel has become a
Speaker 2: powerful country, an important military force, an important intelligence force
Speaker 2: in the region, and the relationship between Israel and the
Speaker 2: United States has been less.
Speaker 3: Of great power to junior partner.
Speaker 2: Indeed, it remains that, but less of that and more
Speaker 2: of a shared strategic set of goals, and not always shared.
Speaker 3: But in theory broadly shared.
Speaker 2: I think Israel has decided to do what it wants
Speaker 2: to do more and more now. It is also true that,
Speaker 2: for example, although the US urged it not to go
Speaker 2: in on the ground, once it began its maneuvers on
Speaker 2: the ground, then the US said, this is part of
Speaker 2: its legitimate right to self defense. From what I can tell,
Speaker 2: and we'll learn more as the days and weeks go on,
Speaker 2: the US was especially eager to avoid a massive ground incursion,
Speaker 2: to limit it to more small groups, and that seems
Speaker 2: to have been what happened. Whether that's a result of
Speaker 2: American pressure or not, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I lent an ear to a lot of speeches at
Speaker 1: the UN General Assembly last month, and there were many
Speaker 1: world leaders calling for a two state solution, the US,
Speaker 1: of course among them, perhaps more loudly than it has. Ever,
Speaker 1: what do people say in the region about the prospects
Speaker 1: of that happening.
Speaker 3: It seems unlikely in the short term.
Speaker 2: I think that what the regional powers in the United
Speaker 2: States would like to get Israel to do, and so
Speaker 2: far they're not able to, is to talk about the
Speaker 2: expectation that there will be a two state solution down
Speaker 2: the road, preparations for it. This country has not been
Speaker 2: willing to say it. Politically, it's a very unpopular stand
Speaker 2: because there is a belief here that what Hamas did,
Speaker 2: which was cheered by many who are not in Hamas
Speaker 2: among the Palestinians, that actually in the Palestinian political world
Speaker 2: there isn't really a desire to coexist with the Jewish state.
Speaker 3: That is the prevailing view here.
Speaker 2: I think it could shift with some work and some leadership,
Speaker 2: but at the moment it doesn't seem very likely. The
Speaker 2: bigger question, also, though, is if, in fact, in the
Speaker 2: last few weeks Israel's ability to really send a message
Speaker 2: that Hisbella is not as strong as it was, that
Speaker 2: Iran is not as strong as it was, that actually
Speaker 2: Israel is the power again in the region, which some
Speaker 2: people are saying it's still early to say, but some
Speaker 2: people are saying, might that shift the power dynamics again
Speaker 2: so that a country like Saudi Arabia would quietly rebuild
Speaker 2: its relationship with Israel.
Speaker 3: It's not out of the question, Ethan.
Speaker 1: What about the man who's been spearheading this war, Benjamin Netnyah,
Speaker 1: who just give us a sense of how much support
Speaker 1: he has, how unanimous his basive support is in the
Speaker 1: country as this conflict goes into its second ear So.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't call his base of support nanis by any means.
Speaker 2: He has been quite unpopular for a long time. He's
Speaker 2: been in office for fifteen of the last seventeen years
Speaker 2: or something like that, and he does have an important base,
Speaker 2: but he faces fraud and bribery charges.
Speaker 3: People feel that he's been in power too long.
Speaker 2: That said, there is a sense that he's a guy
Speaker 2: who really can be counted on when things matter for
Speaker 2: the big geopolitical questions. Many people view it, not most,
Speaker 2: but many, and his popularity has risen the further we've
Speaker 2: gotten from October seventh.
Speaker 1: Ethan, is there clarity on what it would take for
Speaker 1: this war to end as we see it wide in
Speaker 1: the way that it has. Do we know what the
Speaker 1: endgame is for Israel?
Speaker 2: I think for now the endgame for Israel is to
Speaker 2: have his ballah at least ten kilometers away from the
Speaker 2: border and relatively disarmed, a sort of a notion that
Speaker 2: there's someone else in charge in Lebanon rather than them,
Speaker 2: and Hamas no longer a threat or in power in Gaza.
Speaker 3: And indeed, one thing we haven't mentioned is the return of.
Speaker 2: The one hundred or so hostages. Those I would say
Speaker 2: are the main goals. Return of hostages, return of residents
Speaker 2: to their home, and the dismantling of Hamas and as
Speaker 2: threats to this country.
Speaker 3: That's what they're looking toward. Not an easy set of.
Speaker 1: Goals, Ethan. Thank you very much, my pleasure, David. This
Speaker 1: is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.
Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited
Speaker 1: by Caitlin Kenny, Aaron Edwards, and Eric Gelman. It was
Speaker 1: mixed by Alex Segura, in fact check by Audrean Aa Tapia.
Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Hanso. Our executive producer is Nicole beemster Boor. Sage
Speaker 1: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening. We'll
Speaker 1: be back tomorrow.