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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. October seventh, twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: one year ago today.

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Speaker 2: Very early this morning, Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip

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Speaker 2: began shooting thousands of rockets at Israel. Mus fights has

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Speaker 2: broke past the Gaza Israel Borda.

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Speaker 1: Entering Israel by land, air and sea.

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Speaker 2: Taking people hostage, gunning people down in the streets of

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Speaker 2: their talents, gunning them down in their.

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Speaker 1: Homes, dragging Israelis men, women and children across the border

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Speaker 1: with Gaza. It was the culmination of decades of festering tensions.

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Speaker 1: Last October seventh, over one thousand Israelis were killed and

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Speaker 1: about two hundred and fifty taken hostage, and within hours

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Speaker 1: Israel declared war on Hamas, immediately consuming the Gaza Strip

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Speaker 1: in violence. Fighting has escalated in the Middle East as

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Speaker 1: Israel ramps up its attacks on the Islamic militant group Hamas.

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Speaker 1: Palestinian death toll has past for thirty thousand. The hunger

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Speaker 1: situation in northern Gaza has become increasingly dark. What was

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Speaker 1: once a home and a warehouse sheltering displaced people is

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Speaker 1: now a pile of rubble.

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Speaker 3: Morgues overflowing families crammed into overcrowded schools, desperate for food

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Speaker 3: and water.

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Speaker 1: Almost forty two thousand people have been killed by Israel's

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Speaker 1: operations in Gaza, according to the Hamas run health ministry.

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Speaker 1: The fighting has since drawn in the entire region and

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Speaker 1: its animated activists around the world, and things have escalated

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Speaker 1: in recent weeks. Iran fired some two hundred ballistic missiles

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Speaker 1: on Israel in response to the attacks on Hasbulah and

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Speaker 1: the killing of a Hamas leader. The two nations are

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Speaker 1: now engaged in direct armed confrontation. Israel also sent troops

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Speaker 1: into southern Lebanon last week and is waging an air

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Speaker 1: offensive there aimed at Hasbulah. More than fifteen hundred people

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Speaker 1: have been killed in Lebanon by Israel's airstrikes in recent weeks,

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Speaker 1: and around one million have been displaced, according to local officials. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: Israel and Hamas continue to exchange fire in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: The notion that Israel had kind of become comfortable in

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Speaker 2: its place with having militias next to it.

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Speaker 3: Hamas and Gaza his in Lebanon.

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Speaker 2: There was a notion that, okay, they were dangerous, but

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Speaker 2: we could take it we're fine, We've got it under control.

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Speaker 2: That was all reversed by what happened.

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Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerat.

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Speaker 1: Today on the show, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Israel Bureau

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Speaker 1: chief Ethan Brahner to take us from then to now,

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Speaker 1: to reflect on how the October seventh attack has transformed

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Speaker 1: the region and to talk about what comes next. Ethan,

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Speaker 1: it's been a year since the October seventh attack, and

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Speaker 1: a broad question to start, I'm just curious how much

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Speaker 1: Israel has changed since then.

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Speaker 2: David, I would say that the October seventh attack was

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Speaker 2: one of the most impactful acts of terrorism.

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Speaker 3: In decades anywhere on the globe.

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Speaker 2: Israel became a broken society as a result of what

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Speaker 2: happened on October seventh. It fractured the place numerous places

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Speaker 2: in numerous ways. It gave the citizens a sense that

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Speaker 2: they couldn't trust the contract that they had with their

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Speaker 2: state and their army. And it also gave the impression

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Speaker 2: around the region that the vaunted Israeli security.

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Speaker 3: Apparatus was today a paper tigers.

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Speaker 2: So it was absolutely a very very significant event.

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Speaker 1: Could people have imagined how wide how broad this military

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Speaker 1: campaign has gotten.

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Speaker 3: I think that when.

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Speaker 2: Israel was penetrated on October seventh, and there was this

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Speaker 2: incredible sense of vulnerability and this notion that it was

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Speaker 2: time to rethink the strategy of the country.

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Speaker 3: Everything was open. There was an.

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Speaker 2: Amazing sense of vulnerability, which made it hard to imagine

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Speaker 2: too many daring actions right away. But I think that

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Speaker 2: the notion that Israel had kind of become comfortable in

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Speaker 2: its place with having militias next to it Humas in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: his Bellah in Lebanon, there was a notion that, okay,

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Speaker 2: they were dangerous, but we could take it. We're fine,

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Speaker 2: We've got it under control. There deterred. One phrase that

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Speaker 2: you heard is better comas and chaos in Gaza. That

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Speaker 2: was all reversed by what happened. All of this became

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Speaker 2: a sudden notion that Israel needed to rethink how it

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Speaker 2: moved forwards strategically in the region.

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Speaker 3: And that's what we've seen.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about the effect that this has had on

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Speaker 1: Israeli society. Let's look at Palestinian society. How much has

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Speaker 1: that been disrupted by what's happened in the last year.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, it has been a horrible year to

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Speaker 2: be a Palestinian on the ground. So let's begin with Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Israel the same day began bombing very intensively, and then

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Speaker 2: within a few weeks brought its true and tanks and

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Speaker 2: artillery to bear as well down hard on Gaza. So

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Speaker 2: we now have a section of tiny coastal strip with

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Speaker 2: two point two or three million people that have lost

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Speaker 2: over forty one thousand people as fest we can tell,

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Speaker 2: and large portions reduced to rubble, I mean.

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Speaker 3: Truly unlivable. This has been a terrible.

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Speaker 2: Time to be in godz of people have been uprooted constantly,

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Speaker 2: many many, many homes and institutions have been destroyed. In

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Speaker 2: the West Bank, where Palestinians had been until the seventh

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Speaker 2: of October, a couple of one hundred thousand coming into

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Speaker 2: Israel working the economy was actually doing much better than

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Speaker 2: in previous years. All of that shut down, there were

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Speaker 2: huge numbers of checkpoints, people couldn't move, people couldn't work,

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Speaker 2: people couldn't make any money, and settlers, Jewish settlers started

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Speaker 2: to express their anger about the Palestinian attack on Israel,

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Speaker 2: and there were cars burned and so forth, and the

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Speaker 2: fact that this.

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Speaker 3: The police force, which.

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Speaker 2: Is led by a very right wing member of the

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Speaker 2: Israeli government, did little to get in the way of

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Speaker 2: those settler activities made it all the worse.

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Speaker 3: So it's been a terrible time to be Palestinian.

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Speaker 1: I remember, not long after the attack, he wrote about

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Speaker 1: how it kind of led to Israel coalescing around what

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Speaker 1: a lot of Israeli saw as this existential threat in Gaza.

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Speaker 1: How has that sense of unity shifted?

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Speaker 3: That is absolutely true.

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Speaker 2: Let's remember that before October seventh, the previous eight or

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Speaker 2: nine months, the country was deeply divided over plans by

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Speaker 2: the Natanyahu government to shift the role of the courts,

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Speaker 2: and from the point of view of many who were

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Speaker 2: liberals and on the left, it was an attempt to

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Speaker 2: reduce the democratic nature of Israeli society. So there was

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Speaker 2: an incredible amount of division, and many believed that that

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Speaker 2: division offered Israel's enemies the reason to believe that this

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Speaker 2: was a.

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Speaker 3: Good moment to attack.

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Speaker 2: So that happened, and then indeed there was an incredible,

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Speaker 2: almost exit stential sense that this is a moment when

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Speaker 2: the country needs to come together, and did come together.

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Speaker 3: Let's not forget there were two hundred.

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Speaker 2: And fifty hostages taken in, there were twelve hundred dead people.

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Speaker 2: There was a sense of violation of group fate that

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Speaker 2: took over. So that was true for many months. It

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Speaker 2: remains to an large extent true. But you know, it's

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Speaker 2: been a year and the question of how this war

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Speaker 2: should go forward it has started to play again.

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Speaker 3: Everyone.

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Speaker 1: About a week ago we saw Israel launch this incursion

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Speaker 1: into Lebanon, these targeted attacks. What does that say to

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Speaker 1: you about the strategy going forward here? How much of

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Speaker 1: an escalation is that as you see it.

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Speaker 2: Look, anytime you bring in ground troops and tanks, it's

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Speaker 2: a massive escalation. It's a very big difference from just

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Speaker 2: shooting from the air. But let's remember what Israel believes,

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Speaker 2: whether true or not, is another question. It believes that

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Speaker 2: sixty five thousand residents in the north who've been internal

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Speaker 2: refugees for the last year have not been able to

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Speaker 2: live in their homes because of his Bella's firing missiles

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Speaker 2: and the fear that his Bela right up against the

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Speaker 2: border could actually come in in a similar maneuver of

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Speaker 2: the October seventh.

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Speaker 3: But Hamastid in.

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Speaker 2: The south, so their belief is they need to quote

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Speaker 2: unquote clean the area within a few kilometers of the

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Speaker 2: border and make it impossible for his Belah to shoot

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Speaker 2: and to use that as a staging ground.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know how long that will take.

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Speaker 2: And of course, if there are soldiers that are taken

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Speaker 2: hostage or captured, I mean, anything could happen.

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Speaker 3: We really don't know.

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Speaker 1: The White House had counseled Israel against this latest incursion

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Speaker 1: in Lebanon, an effort to avoid wider conflict that clearly failed.

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Speaker 3: After the break.

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Speaker 1: What's likely to happen next between Israel and the US

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Speaker 1: and where this widening conflict could go from here. About

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Speaker 1: a week ago, Israel sent troops into southern Lebanon in

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Speaker 1: what it called an effort to combat his Bulah, which

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Speaker 1: is considered a terrorist organization by the US and many

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Speaker 1: other countries. This incursion was something that the White House

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Speaker 1: had counseled Israel against. I asked Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief

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Speaker 1: Ethan Bronner, what it means that Israel went ahead with it.

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Speaker 2: The truth is that the United States has very rarely

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Speaker 2: been able to tell Israel what to do militarily generally,

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Speaker 2: I mean, in previous decades it had slightly more influence,

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Speaker 2: it might be said. But what's interesting is over the

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Speaker 2: last three or four decades, is Israel has become a

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Speaker 2: powerful country, an important military force, an important intelligence force

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Speaker 2: in the region, and the relationship between Israel and the

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Speaker 2: United States has been less.

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Speaker 3: Of great power to junior partner.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, it remains that, but less of that and more

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Speaker 2: of a shared strategic set of goals, and not always shared.

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Speaker 3: But in theory broadly shared.

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Speaker 2: I think Israel has decided to do what it wants

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Speaker 2: to do more and more now. It is also true that,

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Speaker 2: for example, although the US urged it not to go

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Speaker 2: in on the ground, once it began its maneuvers on

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Speaker 2: the ground, then the US said, this is part of

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Speaker 2: its legitimate right to self defense. From what I can tell,

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Speaker 2: and we'll learn more as the days and weeks go on,

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Speaker 2: the US was especially eager to avoid a massive ground incursion,

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Speaker 2: to limit it to more small groups, and that seems

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Speaker 2: to have been what happened. Whether that's a result of

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Speaker 2: American pressure or not, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I lent an ear to a lot of speeches at

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Speaker 1: the UN General Assembly last month, and there were many

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Speaker 1: world leaders calling for a two state solution, the US,

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Speaker 1: of course among them, perhaps more loudly than it has. Ever,

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Speaker 1: what do people say in the region about the prospects

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Speaker 1: of that happening.

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Speaker 3: It seems unlikely in the short term.

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Speaker 2: I think that what the regional powers in the United

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Speaker 2: States would like to get Israel to do, and so

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Speaker 2: far they're not able to, is to talk about the

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Speaker 2: expectation that there will be a two state solution down

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Speaker 2: the road, preparations for it. This country has not been

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Speaker 2: willing to say it. Politically, it's a very unpopular stand

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Speaker 2: because there is a belief here that what Hamas did,

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Speaker 2: which was cheered by many who are not in Hamas

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Speaker 2: among the Palestinians, that actually in the Palestinian political world

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Speaker 2: there isn't really a desire to coexist with the Jewish state.

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Speaker 3: That is the prevailing view here.

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Speaker 2: I think it could shift with some work and some leadership,

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Speaker 2: but at the moment it doesn't seem very likely. The

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Speaker 2: bigger question, also, though, is if, in fact, in the

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Speaker 2: last few weeks Israel's ability to really send a message

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Speaker 2: that Hisbella is not as strong as it was, that

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Speaker 2: Iran is not as strong as it was, that actually

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Speaker 2: Israel is the power again in the region, which some

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Speaker 2: people are saying it's still early to say, but some

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Speaker 2: people are saying, might that shift the power dynamics again

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Speaker 2: so that a country like Saudi Arabia would quietly rebuild

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Speaker 2: its relationship with Israel.

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Speaker 3: It's not out of the question, Ethan.

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Speaker 1: What about the man who's been spearheading this war, Benjamin Netnyah,

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Speaker 1: who just give us a sense of how much support

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Speaker 1: he has, how unanimous his basive support is in the

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Speaker 1: country as this conflict goes into its second ear So.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't call his base of support nanis by any means.

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Speaker 2: He has been quite unpopular for a long time. He's

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Speaker 2: been in office for fifteen of the last seventeen years

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Speaker 2: or something like that, and he does have an important base,

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Speaker 2: but he faces fraud and bribery charges.

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Speaker 3: People feel that he's been in power too long.

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Speaker 2: That said, there is a sense that he's a guy

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Speaker 2: who really can be counted on when things matter for

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Speaker 2: the big geopolitical questions. Many people view it, not most,

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Speaker 2: but many, and his popularity has risen the further we've

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Speaker 2: gotten from October seventh.

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Speaker 1: Ethan, is there clarity on what it would take for

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Speaker 1: this war to end as we see it wide in

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Speaker 1: the way that it has. Do we know what the

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Speaker 1: endgame is for Israel?

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Speaker 2: I think for now the endgame for Israel is to

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Speaker 2: have his ballah at least ten kilometers away from the

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Speaker 2: border and relatively disarmed, a sort of a notion that

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Speaker 2: there's someone else in charge in Lebanon rather than them,

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Speaker 2: and Hamas no longer a threat or in power in Gaza.

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Speaker 3: And indeed, one thing we haven't mentioned is the return of.

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Speaker 2: The one hundred or so hostages. Those I would say

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Speaker 2: are the main goals. Return of hostages, return of residents

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Speaker 2: to their home, and the dismantling of Hamas and as

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Speaker 2: threats to this country.

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Speaker 3: That's what they're looking toward. Not an easy set of.

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Speaker 1: Goals, Ethan. Thank you very much, my pleasure, David. This

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Speaker 1: is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.

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Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Julia Press. It was edited

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Speaker 1: by Caitlin Kenny, Aaron Edwards, and Eric Gelman. It was

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Speaker 1: mixed by Alex Segura, in fact check by Audrean Aa Tapia.

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Speaker 1: Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is

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Speaker 1: Elizabeth Hanso. Our executive producer is Nicole beemster Boor. Sage

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Speaker 1: Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening. We'll

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Speaker 1: be back tomorrow.