WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: November 8, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.840 --> 0:00:06.199 Live from the Bloomberg Interacted Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:06.280 --> 0:00:09.959 day Break for Tuesday, November eight. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:12.799 Americans go to the polls with control of the House 0:00:12.840 --> 0:00:16.239 and Senate at stake. Racist in Georgia and Pennsylvania could 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:18.840 be key. We're also watching a close contest for New 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:22.439 York governor and Donald Trump. All that confirms another run 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:25.200 for the White House, with an announcement set for next week. 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:28.080 I'll speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks for the first time about 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:30.880 the attack on her husband. Plus a technical issue has 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:34.159 to lay the powerball drawing. I'm Michael Barr. More ahead, 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.120 I'm John Stash. In sports, the Ravens beat the Saints, 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:40.680 the Nets loss, wins for the Knicks, Islanders, and st John. 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:47.240 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven, Treo, 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:51.599 New York, Bloomberg N one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:56.320 oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine St. Francisco, Sirius x 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:59.920 M one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:08.279 to come and via the Bloomberg Business Sad. Good morning. 0:01:08.280 --> 0:01:11.440 I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow and US stock 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:14.440 index futures are higher this morning. We are coming up 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:16.040 to five oh one on Wall Street. I mean check 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.160 the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg, 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.119 SNP Future is up six points this morning. Down Future 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.759 is up fifty four. Nasdack Future is up thirty nine. 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.440 The decks in Germany's up two tenths of a percent. 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.400 Ten year treasury of four thirty seconds yield four point 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:32.560 one nine percent, and they yield on the two year 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:36.240 four point seven zero percent. Nine Max scret oil is 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.200 down one point one percent on a dollar two and 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.640 ninety seventy seven cents of barrel. Nathan Karen, We will 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:43.679 have more on markets in a minute, but first, this 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:46.480 is election day. Control of the Senate hangs in the 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.360 balance as candidates make their final hour pushes for votes. 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:52.280 They're tight races shaping up in at least three states. 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:56.559 Amy Morris has the latest from our Bloomberg newsroom in Washington. 0:01:57.120 --> 0:02:00.080 In Pennsylvania, the Senate race between Democrat John Federal and 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.960 Republican memod Oz is neck and net. That will bring 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.760 change to Washington, so they treat us the way we 0:02:05.840 --> 0:02:08.639 deserve and I'm gonna meet every one of you to 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.800 go out, get your friends, get your families all ready 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:13.880 to vote. And Georgia, a record two and a half 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:17.600 billion votes are already cast. Republican challenger Herschel Walker in 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:21.280 a dead heat with incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnuts. I'll 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:24.080 show up for you for six more years. You got 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.840 a vote with something. If no candidate gets more than 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:29.680 fifty of the vote, he could head to a run 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:32.440 off in December. Be ready for days of counting ballots. 0:02:32.480 --> 0:02:35.480 In Arizona with a race four senator between incumbent Democrat 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:38.639 Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters, and the goober nottorial 0:02:38.720 --> 0:02:42.639 contest between Republican Kerry Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs are 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.720 so tight posters expect those results to come down to 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:48.760 just a few thousand votes. In Washington, I'm Amy Morris, 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:51.400 Bloomberg Daybreak, All right, Aman Banks. So there are several 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:54.560 key races for governor across the country, including a closely 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.120 watched one in New York and bloomberg S Michael Barr 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.720 joins US Live with the latest, Michael, good Morning, And 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:03.760 the race for governor was once considered an easy win 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:08.000 for incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hokel. However, Republican Lee Zelden 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.000 made up ground in the polls to make it a 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:13.880 tight race. Both candidates made their final push to voters. 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:19.320 Governor Hokel campaign in Manhattan. I always run like I'm 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:22.119 the underdog. Makes me work harder. That's what we're gonna 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:26.000 Pocill also campaign last night in her hometown of Buffalo. 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:30.440 Both candidates need votes not just from Independence or Republicans, 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:34.360 but Democrats as well, something Zelden knows. It wasn't until 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.440 New Yorkers United in early nineties that they decided that 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.880 they were going to take back our streets. Zelden campaign 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:42.960 at the scene of a subway stabbing in New York 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.720 City and is pushed to fight crime in New York 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:49.160 Michael Barr, Bloomberg Radio, Nathan Michael thank you. Voters are 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:52.080 also weighing at least sixty six billion dollars of state 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.840 in local bond measures today to finance projects like new 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:58.000 schools and climate resiliency efforts. We get that story from 0:03:58.000 --> 0:04:02.760 Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. The proposed borrowing is more than double 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:06.400 the twenty seven billion dollars on ballots of this time 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:09.840 last year, and among the highest volume of bonds up 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:12.280 for a vote since at least two thousand nine. This 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:16.240 according to a Bloomberg analysis of a preliminary tally of 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:20.400 bond measures compiled by I h S Market. The increase 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.320 comes of states and cities have been collecting better than 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:26.440 expected revenue in the last fiscal year, shoring up the 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:30.520 budgets after a period of financial uncertainty at the onset 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:35.080 of the coronavirus pandemic in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.839 day Break Right, Charley, thank you. While Americans head to 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:40.640 the polls, Donald Trump is ramping up hints that he'll 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:43.600 run for the White House in four The former president 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:45.960 all but confirmed the move at a rally last night 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:51.000 in Dayton, Ohio. I'm going to be making a very 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:58.400 big announcement on Tuesday, November at Bar Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.880 Former President Trump has been teasing a run for months. 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:06.279 Advisors have long urged him to hold off on an 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:09.000 announcement until after the mid terms. All right, Karen, Now, 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.560 let's take a look at some news outside today's elections. 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:14.880 Beginning in Europe as the war between Russia and Ukraine 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:18.600 rages on, sanctions continue piling up on Moscow. But now 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:20.919 Bloomberg News has learned the White House wants banks like 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.680 JP Morgan and City Group to keep doing business with 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:26.720 some strategic Russian firms. We're told it's part of a 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.160 behind the scenes effort to limit the adverse impact of 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:31.960 Russian sanctions on the global economy, even as some in 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:35.080 Congress found the table for stronger steps well on well 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:37.880 straight Nathan stocks have rallied for two straight days ahead 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:40.320 of the mid terms. Mark and Stanley's Mike Wilson says 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.080 polls that show Republicans claiming at least one chamber of 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:46.680 Congress could provide a catalyst for equities. We're getting close 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:48.360 to the end of the bear market. We're not there yet, 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:49.880 but you know, what you want to what you want 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:52.599 to try and figure out is what outperforms in the 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:55.480 last leg down, because that will tell you what's going 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:57.760 to outperform in the next leg up eventually when we 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:00.359 get there, and that's been industrial financials and some of 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:03.839 the commodity complex and Morgan Stanleys Mike Wilson says companies 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:06.400 will need to bring down expenses before he becomes more 0:06:06.440 --> 0:06:09.680 optimistic on equities. Another key market for the event for 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:11.720 the Market's Karen comes on Thursday, when we get a 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:15.560 reading on consumer prices. Richmond FED President Thomas Barkin says 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.200 the Central Bank will persist in efforts to bring inflation 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:21.760 under control. Inflation should come down, but don't expect it's 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:25.080 drop to be immediate or predictable. We've been through multiple shocks, 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:28.839 as I discussed, and significant shocks simply take time to dampen. 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:32.040 Richmond FED President Thomas Barkin says one key lesson from 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:36.400 inflation in the seventies is not to declare victory premature late. Well, Nathan, 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.240 we turn our attention to the big climate change summit 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:41.880 in Egypt. Now, the World Bank has announced the Climate 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:44.320 Trust Fund for poorer countries, and we got up to 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.120 the President of the World Bank, David moult Pass. The 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.960 war in ukramed, but also the giant amounts of government 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.320 spending that we're done on covid UH and so that 0:06:53.320 --> 0:06:56.520 that is putting upward pressure on prices around the world, 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.960 and that hits the poorest the hardest. World Bank President 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.200 David Malpass spoke with Bloomberg at the COP seven summit 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:06.120 in Egypt. Catch more of that conversation coming up later 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:09.960 in our program. Futures are higher with SMP futures of 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:12.920 eleven points this morning, down futures of eighty one, NASDAG 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:16.320 futures of fifties six straight. I had your latest local headlines, 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:23.400 plus a check of sports, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:25.920 pared five oh seven on Wall Street forty degrees in 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:28.920 Central Park. Got a car fire Southount Garden State Parkway, 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:32.520 egs at more coming up in traffic First. Michael Barr 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:34.520 is back with more on what's going on in New 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:37.560 York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.320 There are other races being watched in the Tri state 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:44.040 area as well. In Connecticut, Democratic Governor Ed Lamont is 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:48.600 up against Republican challenger Robert Stefanowski. LaMotte spoke earlier with 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:51.440 Bloomberg about the issues in the campaign. I think the 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:56.360 economy front and center. Uh. Here in Connecticut, we've been 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:58.960 flat as a pancake for thirty years. We hadn't added 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:01.680 a new job in two years. Uh, and we were 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:04.640 going from physical crisis to fiscal crisis. It was a 0:08:04.640 --> 0:08:08.800 pretty lousy story and the last you know, four or 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.600 five years were beginning to turn things around. In the 0:08:11.680 --> 0:08:15.000 U S. Senate, Democrat Richard blymhal is up against Republican 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:18.600 Leora Levy. How Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the attack on 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:21.120 her husband Paul would be a factor in deciding your 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:25.320 political future and expressed dismay that Donald Trump and others, 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:29.040 including Elon Musk, had cast down on the attack. Pelosi 0:08:29.160 --> 0:08:32.000 told CNN last night, you see what the reaction is 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:34.320 on the other side to this, to make a joke 0:08:34.400 --> 0:08:38.160 of it, and really that is traumatizing too. U S. 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.600 Supreme Court justices have signaled they may open new avenues 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:44.680 that could weaken the cloud of the Securities and Exchange 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:48.800 Commission and Federal Trade Commission. Bloomberg said maxter as the story. 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:52.800 The justices are considering cases regarding claims going directly to 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:57.160 federal court. The two regulatory agencies have been very busy. 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:00.079 The SEC file more than seven hundred and forced my 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:03.120 actions in the flash fiscal year and one judgments and 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:07.280 orders worth six point four billion dollars. The FTC is 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:11.079 seeking to break up meta platforms and investigating Amazon, among 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:15.160 other initiatives. Returned two point four billion of consumers last year. 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.400 It is a conservative court and it could decide the 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:22.840 question of the value of regulation visa v. More free commerce. 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:26.199 In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter, Bloomberg Gay Break. The 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:29.280 Multi State Laundry Association sat in the statement that the 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:33.240 powerball drawing was delayed last nine and the official results 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:36.040 won't be known until later. The record breaking one point 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:40.319 nine billion dollar powerball drawing was delayed because of participating 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:44.959 lottery had issues processing sales. Global News twenty four hours 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:48.079 a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:52.000 more than journalist analysts and more than a hundred twenty countries. 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.360 I'm Minchael bar this is Bloomberg Naven. All right, Michael, 0:09:54.400 --> 0:10:01.240 Thanks five oh nine All Street time for the Bloomberg 0:10:01.240 --> 0:10:04.320 Sports Day. Prosy by Tri State Autie. Good morning, John Stashi, 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:06.960 Good morning, Nathan Busy. Night of Basketball Open the Night 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:11.120 in the College gave the entire preseason top twenty five played. 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:13.880 They all won, including Duke and new coach John Shire 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:17.040 Villanova for new coach Kyle Neptune. They replaced the Hall 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:19.280 of Fame coaches Mike and Chefft and Jay Right st 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.600 John's one its opener by twenty five over Mary Mack. Also, 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.839 fifteen NBA games were the message at all of them 0:10:25.880 --> 0:10:28.080 to a mind fans to vote. That's why the NBA 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:31.720 will not play any games tonight. Nixon Minnesota scored seventy 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.480 six points in the first half and one one oh 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:37.040 seven thirty one point for Julius Randall. He made eight 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:40.400 three pointers. The Nets lost in Dallas nineties ninety four. 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.000 Luke dons it's thirty six points of the mass Kevin 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:46.280 Duran twenty six for Brooklyn. Milwaukee lost for the first 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.959 time Cleveland for just a second time. The Lakers lost 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:51.880 by twenty three at Utah. The Lakers are two and eight. 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:54.680 The Jazz traded their two best players in the off season, 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:57.920 yet they are a surprising nine and three. Islanders made 0:10:57.920 --> 0:10:59.720 it five of their last six. They beat Calgary four 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:02.840 three over Time Well the Night Football Ravens and St. 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.439 Jackson's chief of fights in the right looking to owe 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:10.040 now he loves a time. Kenny town Man Towns, I 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:13.800 JA unlikely look behind of the secondary. I have the 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.920 ravings trink first in New Orleans, j l The Call 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:19.520 Ravens went on to win twenties seven to thirteen. They 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.000 stay in first place. AFC North at six and three. 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.439 The Colt sevenly three wins, and they fired coach Frank 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.400 Reich replaced them with former Indianapolis center Jeff Saturday. He 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:33.120 has no previous NFL coaching experience. Giants Safety's Davier McKinney, 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.080 one of their top defensive players, spent his bye week, 0:11:36.120 --> 0:11:38.720 and Cabo hurt his hand in an a TV accident. 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:42.839 He'll miss a month. John Stash Doward, Bloomberg Sports, Nathan Okay, John, Thanks. 0:11:42.840 --> 0:11:45.320 On this election day, futures are pointing at touch higher. 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.360 SMP futures are up ten points down, futures up seventy five, 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.840 NASTAC futures up fifty four points ten. Your treasuries up 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:55.080 four thirty seconds, the yield four point one nine percent. 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:57.440 We'll look at what's at stake for markets on this 0:11:57.480 --> 0:12:01.880 election day. Terry Haynes, founder of GIA Policy, joins us. Next, 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:09.120 this is Bloomberg. Bloomberg Sports is brought to you by Audie. 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.080 Don't let someone else drive off in the outie model. 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.360 You've always wanted to visit your local price state autie 0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:15.120 dealer to get behind the wheel of yours today, or 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:23.440 visit autie Offers dot com for more information, markets, headlines 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.439 and breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.840 dot com, The Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quicktake, 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:39.000 This is a Bloomberg Business lash and I'm Karin Moscow. 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:42.280 US Dock Index futures are steady as investors await the 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.760 results of today's midterms as well as Thursday's inflation report. 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.360 And we checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the 0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:52.040 trading day on Bloomberg Guess and P futures. Everybody points down. 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:55.160 Future is of sixty two nasday futures of fifty. The 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.920 decks in Germany's up three tenths of a per cent ten, 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.240 your treasury of four thirty seconds, you have four point 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:02.199 one nine percent, and the yield on the two year 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:05.920 four point seven zero percent. NIMEX Screwed oil is down 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:08.080 one point one percent on ninety six cents at ninety 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.080 eighty four cents of barrel comes go down four tenths 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:13.959 percent or six dollars ninety cents at sixteen seventy three 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:18.640 fifty announced. The euro point against the dollar, the British 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.240 pound one point one four seven nine a yen one 0:13:21.320 --> 0:13:24.640 forty six point to five and bitcoin is down four 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.079 point four percent and nineteen thousand, seven hundred seventy dollars 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:31.040 Watching shares have Take two Interactive Software down more than 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.000 eighteen percent this morning after it reduced its forecast for 0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:36.880 net bookings, and while Disney is among companies schedule to 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.120 report earnings today, that's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.920 Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael, 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:46.240 good morning, Good morning Karen. It is election day. The 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.280 nation has its eye on several key races that could 0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:52.640 change the balance. In Washington, thirty five Senate seats are 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:56.319 on the ballot. Former President Trump, speaking in Dayton, Ohio, 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.160 says he will make a big announcement on November fifteen. 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.120 That is moral go a state Trump had been teasing 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.080 for months Heed to run again me While President Biden 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:09.840 traveled campaign in Maryland, Biden acknowledged Democrats face a tougher 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:13.040 challenge holding the House than the Senate. In the NBA 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:16.000 the next one, the Nets lost the Celtics, Wizards and 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:19.640 Warriors all one. NHL, the Islanders one in ot against 0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.680 the Flames for three. The Bruins and Capitals one in 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:27.800 Monday Night Football, the Ravens beat the Saints twenty seven globally, 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:31.480 twenty four hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quickdake, 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:34.480 powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.640 more than twenty countries. Michael barn This is Bloomberg, Nathan. 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.840 Thanks Michael, five nineteen on Wall Street Line from the 0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:43.120 Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak on this 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.800 election day. We're joined by Terry Haynes, the founder of 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.040 Pangia Policy, to take a look at where things could 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:51.040 shake out after tonight. Terry, good morning. As we just 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:53.440 heard from Michael bar there and the news, President Biden 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.320 is acknowledging it's gonna be tough for Democrats to hold 0:14:56.320 --> 0:15:00.840 onto the House. So what's your final forecast? U, Good morning, Nathan. 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:05.880 I've you know, I've find myself usually pushing back against 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.840 UH in elections, against the kind of huge red wave, 0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:13.560 huge blue wave stories that the swampas every two years, 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:18.800 I find myself uncomfortably consensus. This year, I think i'm 0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:22.480 I'm I'm about six UH that we have an all 0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:26.480 Republican majority Congress. But but I think very small majorities 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:30.280 likely to result in a split Congress, which would be 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:34.960 a Democratic Senate Republican House, and only ten percent likely 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:38.440 to maintain the all Democratic House. What I've been cautioning 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:41.640 markets is a couple of things. One is that you 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.960 shouldn't expect a definitive result for days. Uh. You know, 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.440 the market seemed poised to kind of want to break 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:50.040 out on the upside on some news, and they're not 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:53.400 going to get that news for a while. Uh. Secondly, 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:57.160 I think that what we have here is uh no 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:01.320 control of media. No sense I'd like to say that 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.760 one party another control Congress, when in fact is you 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:08.320 and I have discussed a lot. Uh. These parties are 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.120 really coalitions of different people, and they find it very 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:15.200 difficult to cobble themselves around particular policies that will continue 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:20.080 with Republicans. So, uh, the reality of policy change won't 0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:23.400 won't quite match whatever the election results are. Well, what 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.120 could it mean for policy if we do get divided government? 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:29.880 The return of divided government in Washington? What could it 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.280 mean for either party to get an agenda move forward? 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:38.120 Very broadly speaking, Uh, the status quo by think what 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:41.160 you get is you get the domestic policy grid luck 0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:45.120 with the one party in the White House checking off 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:49.440 against the other party in the Congress. Firstly, Uh. Secondly, 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:53.000 I think you get uh. You do get fiscal stability. 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.800 There's been fiscal stability for the last decade. I think 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.320 that continues. I don't think you get another kind of 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.600 get get another kind of COVID spend or inflation reduction 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:06.880 sort of spend, though, which is probably helpful in the markets. 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.080 And thirdly, you you get continued unanimity in foreign policy. 0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.760 And if there's any area where the transition from the 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:19.280 previous administration to this one has been remarkable, it's that 0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.080 foreign policy has remained largely the same and largely supported 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:25.520 by both parties. And I think that continues. Is there 0:17:25.520 --> 0:17:28.399 a risk for market volatility if, as you say, we 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:32.080 don't know the results of some key races after tonight. 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:36.800 I think it's uh. I think it's a spice. Yeah. 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:39.240 I think a lot of a lot of people in 0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:44.560 markets a kind of understand or are understanding, that you're 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:47.840 not going to get an instantaneous result. Markets are are 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:52.159 as you know better than I, very much interested in 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:54.520 instant gratification one way or the other and they're not 0:17:54.560 --> 0:17:57.280 going to get that. Um, so there'll be a little 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:58.920 bit of that, but you know, in the middle of 0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:00.840 everything else that's going on, I don't think it will 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:04.160 be a major driver. Is what what is the message 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:08.520 for Democrats for President Biden? If the polls come out 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.600 the way or the results come out the way the 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:14.399 polls are indicating, and we do get a pretty strong 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:17.959 result for Republicans after this evening, well, what the message 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:21.240 should be for both parties is that you know what 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:27.360 you're doing, whether it be uh kind of overstating the yeah, 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:33.080 overstating policy differences to the sort of apocalyptic rhetoric that 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.520 that's been featured in many states over the past several months, 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:39.920 isn't working in that what people want or problems solving 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.960 and reaching across the aisle, and frankly that the vast 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.840 majority of problems can be can be solved that way. 0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.760 Not not every one, of course, but the vast majority 0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:52.800 of problems can be and uh, that's not happening. What 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:58.000 concerns me is that neither party takes away from this election, 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:03.040 whether it be Democrats losing or Republicans not winning that much. Uh, 0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:05.719 you know, kind of the humility they need. Uh. Peggy 0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:08.479 Noonan's column last week, I think said very well that 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:13.640 democracy doesn't survive without humility, and uh, you know our 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.800 politics could use a great, a great dose of more 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.879 of it. Thanks as always, Terry, good to get your thoughts, 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:24.360 especially on the morning before the polls open across the country. 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:28.440 Terry Haynes, founder of Pangea Policy with us on this 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:31.399 election day. Looking ahead to the market open this morning, 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.560 UH futures are poised for a slide gain on Wall Street, 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.600 with SMP futures right now up five point STOW futures 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:42.800 up forty three, NAZDAC futures leading the gains higher by 0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:45.960 thirty seven points. At the moment, the tenure Treasury is 0:19:46.040 --> 0:19:48.639 up three thirty seconds, yield four points to zero percent, 0:19:48.880 --> 0:19:51.679 yield on the two year four point seven zero percent, 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:54.760 and looking at NIMEX screwed right now it is lower 0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:57.320 on the session, down one point four percent at ninety 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:01.640 dollars fifty two cents a barrel. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:09.560 Daybreak Bloomberg eleven three oh weather sunny, much cooler today. 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:12.960 Highs today and tomorrow in the mid fifties, will be 0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:16.800 in the low sixties, with another sunny day expected on Thursday. 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:23.520 Right now, forty eight degrees in Central Park, broadcasting live 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:27.639 from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg 0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:31.760 E Living Free to Washington, d C, Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:31.840 --> 0:20:35.240 Bloomberg one oh six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg nine 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:38.520 six to the country, Sirius XM to the one nine team, 0:20:38.520 --> 0:20:41.680 and around the globe the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg 0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:50.960 Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and it's final 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:53.919 thirty on Wall Street. Good morning, I'm camerin Moscow. I'm 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:56.600 Nathan Hagar. Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you by SEI. 0:20:56.720 --> 0:20:59.760 Built on advanced technologies and fifty years of innovation, SEI 0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:02.879 off for his asset Managers, a comprehensive and flexible operations 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:06.400 outsourcing platform. Go to se i C dot com slash managers, 0:21:06.840 --> 0:21:09.200 and we're just about four hours away from the open 0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.000 of US trading. Let's get you up to date on 0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:13.320 the news you need to know at this hour. It's 0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:16.600 election day, Americans go to the polls to decide control 0:21:16.720 --> 0:21:19.280 of Congress. Just to get Taylor, editor with the Cook 0:21:19.320 --> 0:21:23.119 Political Report tells us momentum is on the Republican side. 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:26.320 The House looked further gone in the Senate. The Senate 0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:29.119 is still going to be very, very close. But the 0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:32.080 closer it gets to election day, the more worried Democrats 0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:34.560 that I've talked to have gotten, and the more bullish 0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:38.119 Republicans try to just have gotten. Jessica Tailor of the 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:41.600 Cook Political Report, spoke with our Washington correspondent Joe Matthew 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:44.880 on Bloomberg sound On Catch the program weekdays at five 0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:48.080 pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. Some of those close Senate 0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:52.840 contests Karen include Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, and Arizona. Arizona's race 0:21:52.880 --> 0:21:55.680 for governor is also expected to be close. In New York, 0:21:55.720 --> 0:21:58.600 Republican Lee's Elden could deliver a shocker in a race 0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:01.080 that was once thought to be a shoo in for Democrats. 0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:05.280 We need to hire more law enforcement Les Elden has 0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:07.680 made crime one of his main talking points. In New York. 0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:12.080 Governor Kathy Hoco campaigned in her hometown of Buffalo last night. Meantime, Nathan, 0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:15.440 former President Trump, is not so subtly hinting at another 0:22:15.520 --> 0:22:18.639 White House bid. He's scheduling an announcement once the midterms 0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.960 are over. I'm going to be making a very big 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:29.399 announcement on Tuesday, November. The former president made that announcement 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:33.480 last night at a rally for Ohio Republican Senate candidate JD. Vance. 0:22:33.680 --> 0:22:36.359 Let's turn to markets now. Karen Stocks have rallied for 0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:38.840 consecutive days ahead of the mid terms, but Bloomberg macro 0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:42.040 strategist Cameron Christ does not believe control of Congress will 0:22:42.080 --> 0:22:46.120 change much for investors. People tend to overestimate the significance 0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:51.480