1 00:00:02,320 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 1: You're listening to Taking Stock with Pim Fox and Kathleen 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: Hayes on Bloomberg Radio. Mondaliz no longer pursuing a combination 3 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: with her. She what a day for breaking news we 4 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: have had today from Apple and Caesar's Entertainment to now 5 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: Mondaliz can she joins us Bloomberg News Bloomberg Intelligence to 6 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:24,919 Speaker 1: tell us we don't know too much yet. Can we 7 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: know that it was down at least ten percent? As 8 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: soon as that news came out postmarket, uh, mondely saying 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,879 Speaker 1: it's discipplined with the outcome. What's going to happen in 10 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: this case? Yeah, Hi, Kathleen, Um, Yeah, today's news certainly 11 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: was a disappointment, certainly for investors who thought that combination 12 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: of her, she and Mondalez as powerful brands, would um, 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: you know, be a strong investment um. And they may 14 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:49,920 Speaker 1: have had a good case there. I mean, they would 15 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: have a leading US share and a very attractive high 16 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: margin grocery category. Um. Without getting into the gory details, 17 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: I mean, we know that her, she is closely controlled 18 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: by the board and they were cool to the to 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 1: the bid her. She's got a strange uh characteristic about it. 20 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: Also in that a deal has to be approved by 21 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: the Attorney General of Pennsylvania. So there's really it's really 22 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: a tough company to acquire, and Mondale's I guess felt that, 23 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: you know, it had enough ways to to get around it. Um. 24 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 1: But investors, we're thinking that the deal was going to 25 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: get done based on how hers She was trading. So yeah, 26 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: it certainly could be a disappointment to hold as a Hershey, yeah, 27 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: what happens? I mean, but can anybody step in on 28 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 1: either side? Right? I mean, I know there's a lot 29 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: of technical, technical and difficult things with hershe Will anybody 30 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: else step up? Now? You know that's such a million 31 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: out of question with her She. I think they you 32 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: know that they think they've probably scared some people off 33 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: in terms of you know, trying to acquire it um 34 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: with Mondale. You know, I think it underscores its need 35 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: to pursue acquisitions to row. You know, it's it's it's 36 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: an emerging markets like China and some attractive markets, but 37 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 1: they're slowing down, and so it feels that it needs 38 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: to diversify better. UM. And it's signaled that by by 39 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,400 Speaker 1: looking at a company with who's essentially US based company 40 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 1: like hershey, but for her, she it's hard to say 41 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: if anyone's going to take a run out of here. Well, 42 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: I'm sure if anybody does, you'll be the first to 43 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: let us know. Ken sh Senior Allies or Food and 44 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: Beverage at Bloomberg Intelligence. Let's get right to Ward McCarthy, 45 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: chief financial economist at Jeffreys a ball market rally today, Ward, 46 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 1: we had consumers spending looking reasonably healthy. Inflation, you're over 47 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: here still lagging the Fed's target by a long shot. 48 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: What's going on? Well, I think what we saw today 49 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: was a couple of things. First of all, UH, the 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: three hours fell off that we saw on Friday afternoon, 51 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 1: UH created some yield levels that looked to be a 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 1: little bit attractive. And keep in mind we're right on 53 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: the threshold of the end of the month as well, 54 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: so UH, there was some institutional investors that were involved 55 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: with extension trades. So I think that's really primarily what 56 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: we're looking at. But when you take a bigger step 57 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: back and you look at last week's big development, which 58 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: of course was Jackson Home, it was really kind of 59 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: a friendly message from the Fed, even though they were 60 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,799 Speaker 1: telling us that they expect to raise short term rates 61 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: UM in the not too distant future. Uh. They also 62 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: said we're not going to raise them a lot, and 63 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: we're going to leave the balance sheet enormous for a 64 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: long time to come. So I think these were probably 65 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: um some company messages as well. So what do you 66 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: take away from Jackson Hole ward? Uh? I think I 67 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: guess you just summed up what you you take away, 68 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: Uh do the bone recompenning attention to governor crota boj 69 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: Governor reiterating and maybe even saying more firmly he's ready 70 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: to do whatever it takes to uh, you know, we 71 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: can the end boost inflation, etcetera. Because it seems like 72 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: get one other big benchro bank, central banks sanking, we're 73 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: gonna have lots of lots of liquidity coming out there, 74 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: lots of stimulus. Well, you know, there were a lot 75 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 1: of messages coming from Jackson Hall, and in fact there 76 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: was so many that it's you know, makes it difficult 77 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: to um, you know, get a very clear picture. But 78 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: it's one thing is quite clear that uh central banks 79 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 1: still want to provide uh stimulus to the economies to 80 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,599 Speaker 1: do what they can, although a lot of them seem 81 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: to think that they may be near the end of 82 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 1: their rope. There's only so much central banks can do. 83 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 1: And one of the important themes out of the Jackson 84 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: Hall Symposium as well is that it's time for the 85 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: politicians to start carrying some of the load UM and 86 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: with some physical policy changes that will promote growth. Okay, word, 87 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: So I guess the question is, then, what does this 88 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: mean for the bond market. We've got okay, got a 89 00:04:54,279 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: kind of a bounce back rally, some nice looking yield levels, 90 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:58,280 Speaker 1: But if it FEDS near the end of its rope, 91 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 1: of it's not going to raise my that would seem 92 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 1: to be bullish. On the other hand, to the physical 93 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: side were to step up, what does that mean? Well, 94 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for the 95 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: physical side to UH to step up. And first of all, 96 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: we have to get through what I think is UM 97 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:19,559 Speaker 1: an election that very few people expected. When you look 98 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: at the UH, the two parties both seem like they 99 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 1: want to spend more money, especially on infrastructure, so that 100 00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,680 Speaker 1: would fit all the type of actions that central banks 101 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: would like. But on the other hand, the two parties 102 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: go in opposite directions on tax policy. The Republicans wanting 103 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 1: to cut taxes, and uh, the Democrats are going in 104 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: the other direction, especially on corporate tax I think, which 105 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: is um, you know, a really significant issue for this country. Um, 106 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 1: because of the inversion issue. UM. And that's really just 107 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 1: a function of the fact that the lad of time 108 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,280 Speaker 1: we changed tactics is thirty years ago and we're high now. 109 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: Oh boy, all right, where McCarthy summing up so much? 110 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: What lies ahead from Jackson Hall as we head toward 111 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 1: that September twenty one Federal Reserve meeting and in September 112 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: twenty one Bank of Japan meeting. And I want to 113 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: thank John Lauder, our technical director today of course, our 114 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 1: producer Sam Linga. I'm Kathleen Hayes, and this is Bloomberg