1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

3
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

4
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280
Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

5
00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920
Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

6
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

7
00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,240
Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

8
00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960
Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

9
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,000
Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. John, of course, there

10
00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,199
Speaker 2: is a meeting between the Secretary of State and the

11
00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,920
Speaker 2: leader of China. Also a meeting between the China Foreign

12
00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:44,640
Speaker 2: Minister Wang Yu, who accused the US of taking endless

13
00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:48,159
Speaker 2: measures to suppress China's economy. This was a conversation of

14
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,559
Speaker 2: more than five hours over a working lunch, John, do

15
00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,160
Speaker 2: you think the United States has managed to get its

16
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 2: point of view across whereby the Chinese will change their

17
00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:59,560
Speaker 2: mind about some of this language. It's not fair competition,

18
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 2: but can attainment. It's not removing risks but creating risks.

19
00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:07,440
Speaker 3: I mean, the language isn't really the problem here. You've

20
00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 3: got two countries that are clearly on a continued collision

21
00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,640
Speaker 3: course that are going to continue to be each other's antagonists,

22
00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 3: both in the economic sphere but also the geopolitical sphere.

23
00:01:17,600 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 3: So you know, these kinds of conversations should probably be

24
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,640
Speaker 3: seen as positive just because they're happening. But the real

25
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:27,880
Speaker 3: issues here are what Blincoln said and his speech just there,

26
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,160
Speaker 3: that the Chinese continue to support Russian material in its

27
00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:34,560
Speaker 3: war against Ukraine, that they're buying this Iranian oil that

28
00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,280
Speaker 3: the US is okay with for now, but would probably

29
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,960
Speaker 3: prefer to get the Iranian oil off the market, particularly

30
00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 3: if Donald Trump comes back in. And you've got this

31
00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,200
Speaker 3: ongoing threat of tech competition which is sort of looming

32
00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 3: in the background of the relationship, where a lot of

33
00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,600
Speaker 3: American companies are trying to decouple and divest away from

34
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,920
Speaker 3: China because of the increased threat they perceive both in

35
00:01:55,960 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 3: the operating environment in China, but also America's politician's very

36
00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 3: hawkish turn towards China that could lead potentially to a

37
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 3: sudden stop in relations at some point down the road.

38
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,200
Speaker 2: John, let's sit on geopolitics. Then, the amount of influence

39
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,160
Speaker 2: that Beijing has over Iran has over Russia and the

40
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,280
Speaker 2: amount of influenced the US has over China to do

41
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,880
Speaker 2: something about it. How much influence do both sites have.

42
00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,040
Speaker 3: I mean, the US's influence here comes in the form

43
00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,080
Speaker 3: of sanctions. They could sanction Chinese entities that are buying

44
00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:29,920
Speaker 3: Ronnie oil. They could sanction more Chinese entities that are

45
00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:34,520
Speaker 3: supplying dual use goods to Russia. They're not yet in

46
00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,080
Speaker 3: order to preserve their relationship and maintain gas prices, but

47
00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,280
Speaker 3: they have the power to do so. I think the

48
00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 3: Chinese influence over those two countries matters, and there's probably

49
00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 3: things quite a few things going on behind the scenes

50
00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:47,600
Speaker 3: that we don't exactly know about, in terms of how

51
00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,839
Speaker 3: they're supporting Russia, how they're supporting Roan potentially, how they're

52
00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,440
Speaker 3: supporting the regime in Venezuela. There's just things we don't know,

53
00:02:54,040 --> 00:03:00,600
Speaker 3: and that material support, plus the strategic support, probably helps

54
00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,200
Speaker 3: those regimes counter American influence, which is in some ways

55
00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 3: helpful for the Chinese in their long term goals.

56
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,600
Speaker 1: John, how much do you think that this administration in

57
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,840
Speaker 1: China is more willing to work with President Biden because

58
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:14,639
Speaker 1: they prefer him over the alternative.

59
00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:19,440
Speaker 3: I think they've had a decent relationship with Biden, but

60
00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:21,720
Speaker 3: it hasn't been all great. And if you look at

61
00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,080
Speaker 3: the trajectory of the relationship under Biden compared to President Trump,

62
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 3: it's largely the same. Biden did nothing to reduce the

63
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,200
Speaker 3: tariff complex that was created by the Trump administration, and

64
00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:36,240
Speaker 3: he's gone significantly further than the Trump administration on cutting

65
00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:40,320
Speaker 3: off Chinese access to US semiconductors and other advanced technologies,

66
00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 3: and potentially is setting up to do even more in

67
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,680
Speaker 3: a second Biden administration. Now, the Trump administration is probably

68
00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,800
Speaker 3: going to do a lot of that same stuff. So

69
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,720
Speaker 3: I sort of wonder from the Chinese perspective if they

70
00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:56,240
Speaker 3: really care which of these men wins the White House

71
00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,720
Speaker 3: in November. One thing the Biden administration has done a

72
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 3: little bit differently is been a lot more multilateral. They've

73
00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 3: been able to align a lot of US allies in

74
00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,920
Speaker 3: favor of their initiatives. The Trump administration struggled to do

75
00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 3: that a little bit more. But we have now this

76
00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:15,360
Speaker 3: precedent set where we've got this increasing kind of tech competition,

77
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,720
Speaker 3: this tech cold war happening between these two countries. That's

78
00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:21,520
Speaker 3: likely to continue no matter who wins in November, you.

79
00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:22,600
Speaker 2: Know, we talk about TikTok.

80
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,600
Speaker 1: They didn't discuss it, and yet this specter of horror

81
00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,040
Speaker 1: hangs over a lot of American businesses as well, do

82
00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: when they try to figure out what kind of retaliation

83
00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:34,240
Speaker 1: can they expect from Jijinpang from China if there is

84
00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:38,520
Speaker 1: some sort of TikTok ban or forest investment. Do you

85
00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,440
Speaker 1: see this as something that Jijinping is willing to do

86
00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,120
Speaker 1: to really divorce the relationship between the United States businesses

87
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:45,760
Speaker 1: and China.

88
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,839
Speaker 3: Even more well, on the issue of TikTok. To me,

89
00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,320
Speaker 3: it's really interesting the news yesterday indicates that by Dance

90
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,280
Speaker 3: is willing to let you know, shut down TikTok operations

91
00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,760
Speaker 3: nor in the US if they're forced to divests because

92
00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,039
Speaker 3: of the fact that that operation in such a small

93
00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,240
Speaker 3: share of overall profits. It's also interesting to note that

94
00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,120
Speaker 3: the retaliation in many ways has already occurred. I mean,

95
00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,039
Speaker 3: China has been harassing US tech companies operating inside the

96
00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,159
Speaker 3: country for years. You know, Google, Facebook, They don't really

97
00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,919
Speaker 3: compete if they're in there at all on a level

98
00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,839
Speaker 3: playing field. There is a threat for things like Apple's

99
00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 3: operation or Tesla or other big US companies, but none

100
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,880
Speaker 3: of those really rise to the level of being geopolitically

101
00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,360
Speaker 3: important to the United States, And what I would expect

102
00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:32,880
Speaker 3: to see are further decoupling and further bands of individual

103
00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,919
Speaker 3: companies in both countries in the coming months and years.

104
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:37,680
Speaker 1: What do you make of the increased action in the

105
00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 1: South Asias chief, so, I was trying to see the

106
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:43,359
Speaker 1: fact that people are talking about some potential encourasion in

107
00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,880
Speaker 1: Taiwan in the foreseeable future. Do you think that China

108
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:48,840
Speaker 1: has the appetite to do that at a time or

109
00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,400
Speaker 1: its economy isn't growing as much as they'd like.

110
00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,960
Speaker 3: We think, and something happened on the Taiwan's on the

111
00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,040
Speaker 3: island of Taiwan is very unlikely. It just seems not

112
00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,800
Speaker 3: like it's in China's risk to invade doesn't seem It

113
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,440
Speaker 3: seems like they have a lot to lose, and if

114
00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,839
Speaker 3: things go wrong, they're going to set themselves back significantly,

115
00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:11,800
Speaker 3: both economically but also diplomatically and geopolitically. However, there are

116
00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,120
Speaker 3: a lot of sort of gray zone actions that they

117
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:17,960
Speaker 3: can take short of an actual incursion, including a blockade,

118
00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,120
Speaker 3: which is not on the table right now, but that

119
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:23,680
Speaker 3: would be a significant challenge for Taiwan. They could also

120
00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,159
Speaker 3: start doing more things to harass Taiwani shipments going to

121
00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,600
Speaker 3: the mainland or going to the United States, which could

122
00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:32,800
Speaker 3: end up having a massive disruptive effect on commerce. Even

123
00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,240
Speaker 3: if the Chinese recognize what a huge mistake it would be,

124
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:37,960
Speaker 3: could try to take Taiwan back by force.

125
00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:39,960
Speaker 2: Right now, this is a bigger question I think for

126
00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,279
Speaker 2: the Europeans. John, I believe that someone notable was talking

127
00:06:43,279 --> 00:06:45,080
Speaker 2: about this overnight. It might have been the NATO. Secondly,

128
00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,600
Speaker 2: General I forget, so forgive me, but comments about whether

129
00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,760
Speaker 2: Europeans were making the same mistake with China that they

130
00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:54,480
Speaker 2: made ultimately with Russia and relying too much on profits

131
00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:56,960
Speaker 2: out of China jump, Do they run that risk and

132
00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:58,839
Speaker 2: how big is that risk for the Europeans?

133
00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,440
Speaker 3: Absolutely, who leading edges in both cases, it's Germany. So

134
00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,360
Speaker 3: the Germans have done a lot of work in order

135
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,080
Speaker 3: to integrate their industrial base with China, and China is

136
00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:11,720
Speaker 3: an important uh is an important market, and it's important

137
00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 3: manufacturing hub for Germany as well. And you know, you've

138
00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:16,600
Speaker 3: got all Off Schultz, who seems like he's out of

139
00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,560
Speaker 3: step with the rest of the West and the rest

140
00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 3: of the Europeans in wanting to deepen and continue that relationship,

141
00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:24,080
Speaker 3: so that's entirely possible. I actually think one of the

142
00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,000
Speaker 3: interesting things coming out of a potential second Trump administration

143
00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,560
Speaker 3: would be this alienation between the increasing alienation between the

144
00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,600
Speaker 3: Europeans and the United States on the issue of China.

145
00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,160
Speaker 3: But you know, we can have very different political leadership

146
00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:39,480
Speaker 3: in Germany in a couple of years, then they change

147
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 3: course here, So there's a there's a there's a big

148
00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,360
Speaker 3: risk that they're running right now of getting to reliant

149
00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,840
Speaker 3: on China and losing one of their most important trading

150
00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,280
Speaker 3: and economic partners in the United States.

151
00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:51,640
Speaker 2: One of my men, John, just want to put a

152
00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:53,360
Speaker 2: catch up with you, sir. Thank you John Laba that

153
00:07:53,600 --> 00:08:05,360
Speaker 2: have you write your Let's get to Bruce Cassman of

154
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,200
Speaker 2: JP Morgan. Bruce at least has been quoteing you all morning.

155
00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 2: That quote is the sound that you hear as a

156
00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,800
Speaker 2: narrative cracking. How does this data inform that view?

157
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:17,680
Speaker 4: Well, I think it's pretty supportive of that view on

158
00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 4: a number of fronts. Obviously, the one that people have

159
00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,640
Speaker 4: been most focused on today is the inflation news, and

160
00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:28,400
Speaker 4: certainly we got a more distributed outcome of that surprise.

161
00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,720
Speaker 4: It wasn't all in the March number, but the March

162
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,800
Speaker 4: number at point three one seven on an unrounded core

163
00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,280
Speaker 4: is still pretty darn firm. I haven't seen all of

164
00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:38,560
Speaker 4: the details of how that's distributed. I don't think the

165
00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,480
Speaker 4: supercore services were that were that high, at least what

166
00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,800
Speaker 4: I see. But the basic point here is this is

167
00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:47,120
Speaker 4: no longer something you can explain as just the beginning

168
00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,560
Speaker 4: of the year pop. But I also emphasized.

169
00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:50,840
Speaker 5: Two other things.

170
00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,360
Speaker 4: One is, as you look at the data on income

171
00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:58,280
Speaker 4: and spending here, we're getting very strong wage numbers, and

172
00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,840
Speaker 4: I think there's probably some pressure here on wage inflation

173
00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,040
Speaker 4: as well as there is the strong income numbers. We'll

174
00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,040
Speaker 4: see the Employment Cost Index report for the first quarter

175
00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,000
Speaker 4: next week. And then the other thing here is we

176
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,560
Speaker 4: did have a squeeze on incomes to some degree, both

177
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,160
Speaker 4: for taxes and higher energy prices in Q one, and

178
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,440
Speaker 4: consumers held up pretty darn well. And one of the

179
00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,960
Speaker 4: reasons is the savings rate went down. The savings rate

180
00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:22,120
Speaker 4: is three point two percent in March, and I think

181
00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:24,400
Speaker 4: that's a message that wealth effects are moving here.

182
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:25,280
Speaker 5: So there's both a.

183
00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,160
Speaker 4: Story here about the economy holding up very well with

184
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,600
Speaker 4: high interest rates as well as inflation fresh as being persistent.

185
00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:34,080
Speaker 4: And while I don't think it's right to talk about

186
00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,079
Speaker 4: this from the point of view of FED tightening, I

187
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 4: think the case for a FED easing here is pretty

188
00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 4: is pretty small. Anytime soon, we'll see what we are

189
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,400
Speaker 4: six months from now, but certainly the Fed's going to

190
00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,040
Speaker 4: have to change its tune about it its view that

191
00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,480
Speaker 4: there's a fair amount of easing that's coming down the road.

192
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,480
Speaker 1: I would just add that real personal spending actually increased

193
00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 1: to zero point five percent from zero point four percent,

194
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,960
Speaker 1: even though it's expected to fall Bruce given the fact

195
00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,880
Speaker 1: that we're seeing or hearing that sound of the narrative cracking,

196
00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 1: So what's the new narrative? Is it just no rate

197
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,959
Speaker 1: cuts in your case, well, I think.

198
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,760
Speaker 4: The clear part of the new narrative is high for

199
00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:10,080
Speaker 4: long on raids. The question is where does that take us,

200
00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:12,760
Speaker 4: And we've been actually struggling with that. We have kind

201
00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 4: of two scenarios we think are both reasonable. One we've

202
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,199
Speaker 4: been calling boil the frog, which is high interest rates

203
00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,760
Speaker 4: do weigh on performance. They do start to create vulnerability

204
00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,560
Speaker 4: on balance sheets, particularly the business sector side, and that

205
00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,480
Speaker 4: causes problems for us, not now, but maybe six or

206
00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,160
Speaker 4: twelve months from now. The second one is we find

207
00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,679
Speaker 4: out that we actually can live with higher interest rates,

208
00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:37,240
Speaker 4: that we've had better supply side performance, the economy is

209
00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:41,000
Speaker 4: in an underlying resilient position, and that actually this is

210
00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:43,840
Speaker 4: a new world and we should understand that the economy

211
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,120
Speaker 4: has higher interest rates and is sustainable. Between those two

212
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,880
Speaker 4: right now, I think there's really support for both in

213
00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:51,720
Speaker 4: some of the things we're seeing, and we're not trying

214
00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,120
Speaker 4: to take a strong call on what the new narrative

215
00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:54,680
Speaker 4: is going to be.

216
00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:56,680
Speaker 1: You do, though, think that there is going to be

217
00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:59,000
Speaker 1: a new tone from the Federal Reserve next Wednesday when

218
00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,360
Speaker 1: they give their press conference. What do you think is

219
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,000
Speaker 1: the right way to weigh the risks right now? How

220
00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,960
Speaker 1: much should they shift away from what we saw in December.

221
00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,880
Speaker 4: Well, I think you have to remember that the May

222
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,840
Speaker 4: meeting is not a forecast round meeting. The main meeting

223
00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 4: is not one where we got a lot of new

224
00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,760
Speaker 4: information since the last one. We really get a lot

225
00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,840
Speaker 4: more with two PAYIL reports to CPI reports up to

226
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:23,800
Speaker 4: the June meeting, So I think this is a bit

227
00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,320
Speaker 4: of a waystation. I think what Powell is going to

228
00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 4: do is he's going to basically say he's lost a

229
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,160
Speaker 4: lot of confidence in the views in terms of where

230
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,360
Speaker 4: inflation is going, but they haven't really shifted those views

231
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:37,000
Speaker 4: in a material way. He's going to downplay what the

232
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,800
Speaker 4: SEP in March was telling us we still had three

233
00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:41,719
Speaker 4: cuts for the year, and he's going to look to

234
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,160
Speaker 4: June for the bigger shift in the FED. And obviously

235
00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,480
Speaker 4: we'll see that in the light of what we get

236
00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,840
Speaker 4: in the next two sets of readings on both CPI

237
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 4: and payrolls.

238
00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,760
Speaker 2: Just got to note some reaction this from Inflation Insight.

239
00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,600
Speaker 2: The title of the note is just core pcee few.

240
00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,520
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people feel that way based

241
00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,760
Speaker 2: on the information we got yesterday. There was a risk

242
00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,559
Speaker 2: of a big upside surprise this morning, which is why

243
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,720
Speaker 2: we're basically saying that inline feels like a downside surprise

244
00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,719
Speaker 2: relative to where expectations went to that shift tire and

245
00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,400
Speaker 2: yields yesterday knew heis for twenty twenty four this morning,

246
00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,079
Speaker 2: pulling back particularly on a tenure by four basis points

247
00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,040
Speaker 2: about four sixty six this morning. Bruce, I'm thinking, who

248
00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,079
Speaker 2: else is saying few this morning? It's officials in the

249
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,080
Speaker 2: Ministry of Finance over in Japan. If they're looking at

250
00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,480
Speaker 2: Dolly yen staying up at one fifty six eighty seven

251
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,560
Speaker 2: and approaching one fifty seven, the last thing they needed

252
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,360
Speaker 2: was an upside surprise. Bruce, Can we take this global?

253
00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,480
Speaker 2: What are global central banks finance ministries around the world

254
00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,280
Speaker 2: staring down the barrel of this resilient strong dollar. What

255
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,400
Speaker 2: are they going to do well?

256
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,200
Speaker 4: First point to make here, which I think is really important,

257
00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,960
Speaker 4: is where we're seeing a world in which growth is

258
00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,840
Speaker 4: broadening its base, and I think it is starting to

259
00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,080
Speaker 4: take some of the weak links, including Japan and Western Europe,

260
00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,120
Speaker 4: into a better position. I think in terms of what

261
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,560
Speaker 4: central banks are doing, there is more differentiation. We think

262
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,920
Speaker 4: the European inflation pictures looking a lot better than the US,

263
00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,400
Speaker 4: so I think there is some room for easing. As

264
00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:08,520
Speaker 4: you noted, Minister Finance is probably breathing a sigh of release.

265
00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 4: I'm not sure they're that happy with the way the

266
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:14,080
Speaker 4: boj talked to us overnight. They were considerably more dubbish

267
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,040
Speaker 4: than we expect it in terms of their guidance. But

268
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,400
Speaker 4: I think the basic message here is you're going to

269
00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,280
Speaker 4: get some easing in Western Europe. I think the BOJ

270
00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:24,600
Speaker 4: is going to be patient here, but as you say,

271
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:26,840
Speaker 4: the end is going to continue to be under downward

272
00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:29,440
Speaker 4: pressure relative to the dollar. I think the pressure will build.

273
00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,000
Speaker 4: I think ultimately Japan is going to do more and

274
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,360
Speaker 4: the economy is going to do better than people expect.

275
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,520
Speaker 4: And i'd say that more broadly about the global economy,

276
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:39,760
Speaker 4: that they'll do less on easing, the BOJ is tightening,

277
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,200
Speaker 4: and we'll get better global growth, and people anticipate at

278
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:43,680
Speaker 4: this point.

279
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 1: I know this is a difficult question and everyone has

280
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,200
Speaker 1: a slightly different answer, and some people say it's not

281
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,120
Speaker 1: relevant at all, But where are we in this cycle,

282
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,920
Speaker 1: in the economic cycle if you're talking about a broadening

283
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,240
Speaker 1: out and affirming of Europe of Japan at a time

284
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,280
Speaker 1: when a lot of other people are talking about us

285
00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:02,000
Speaker 1: exceptionalism and the potential for late cycle types of behavior.

286
00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,240
Speaker 4: So I think you can come back to this tension

287
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,360
Speaker 4: on high for long, and I think what's embedded in

288
00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 4: the high forlong is an inflation dynamic.

289
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:12,760
Speaker 5: Even once we've taken out the.

290
00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 4: Highs that we had in twenty one and twenty two,

291
00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:19,600
Speaker 4: and a position in terms of monetary policy labor markets

292
00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:21,360
Speaker 4: that screams late cycle.

293
00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 5: But I think what the.

294
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,920
Speaker 4: Pandemic has done is it's both created that dynamic as

295
00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 4: well as a far more positive dynamic in terms of

296
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 4: where the positioning in terms of leverage, durable spending, profit margins,

297
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 4: things like that that are normally late cycle signals that

298
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:39,600
Speaker 4: type monetary policy.

299
00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:40,200
Speaker 5: Is going to do damage.

300
00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,240
Speaker 4: So I think we're in a kind of a weird

301
00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:46,200
Speaker 4: new world of late cycle inflation in central banks and

302
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,840
Speaker 4: early mid cycle private sector behavior. How that plays out,

303
00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,960
Speaker 4: I'm not feeling very confident right now. As I said,

304
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,440
Speaker 4: I think there's this possibility of the boil the frog

305
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,000
Speaker 4: and we gradually grind to a problem. But there is

306
00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 4: a possibility we can sustain this for for a while longer,

307
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 4: a while being a few years interesting.

308
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 2: Bruce, Thank you, sir, Bruce Caspan There, Emily Rowland of

309
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 2: John Hankel kN Tech driving stocks higher, John Leber of

310
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,880
Speaker 2: Eurasia a secretary blink in meet she in Beijing, and

311
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,360
Speaker 2: Gershen distant found of a Lance Spernstein looking for a

312
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,600
Speaker 2: rally in bonds. We begin with our top story this morning,

313
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 2: Blogbuster tech earnings driving futures higher. Emily Rowland of John

314
00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,200
Speaker 2: Hancock writes in this we have been married to tech

315
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:36,320
Speaker 2: stocks for years. It's been a successful relationship, but it

316
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 2: may be time to date more cyclical parts of the

317
00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,960
Speaker 2: market during this period of reaccelerating inflation growth. Emily, let's

318
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,440
Speaker 2: talk about why you want to cheat on something that

319
00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:50,160
Speaker 2: is treating you so well this morning, Well, after last.

320
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 6: Night's earnings resolved, you know, the narrative is shifted a

321
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,960
Speaker 6: little bit and it almost feels like you're kind.

322
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 5: Of married to mister perfect here right.

323
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 6: You know, we know your company is doing great earnings

324
00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 6: across tech and communications services, coming in around thirty to

325
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 6: forty percent, but the stocks are starting to get a

326
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 6: little flashy.

327
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,600
Speaker 5: We liked them more a few months ago when they

328
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 5: were a bit more humble.

329
00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,560
Speaker 6: So it's really about, you know, thinking about still owning

330
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,080
Speaker 6: these stocks. We're still in a relationship, but you might

331
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:20,880
Speaker 6: want to look around a little bit to see who's

332
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:21,920
Speaker 6: the next up and comer.

333
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:23,760
Speaker 2: Are you saying this red flex.

334
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:28,320
Speaker 6: Not necessarily around the fundamentals. I mean, there's nothing wrong

335
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:31,000
Speaker 6: with tech. The earnings are great and ranks really high

336
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,120
Speaker 6: on our quality metrics, things like return on equity. These

337
00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 6: companies have a ton of cash. It's just everybody's in

338
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:38,720
Speaker 6: love with them, everybody wants.

339
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 5: To be married to them.

340
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 6: So a lot of that's already been reflected in the price.

341
00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 6: We want to diversify away from that and own things

342
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:46,240
Speaker 6: that are actually trading on sale.

343
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 5: And if the economy continues to chug along here, we

344
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 5: think areas on the.

345
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:55,200
Speaker 6: Value complex, specifically the energy sector deserves a look in portfolios.

346
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,080
Speaker 1: If mister perfect is mister perfect, why I leave them?

347
00:16:58,120 --> 00:16:59,800
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, you have to realize that it is

348
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,520
Speaker 1: point if we're not going to get ray cuts, if

349
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,800
Speaker 1: it's not going to look better elsewhere, is it just

350
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:06,879
Speaker 1: sort of to see what else is out there for

351
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,399
Speaker 1: the sake of seeing what else is out there. But

352
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,800
Speaker 1: mister Perfect ultimately is the one to be with.

353
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 6: I got to be careful with this analogy to make

354
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 6: sure my husband's not listening to it.

355
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 5: But you know how these marriages go after a little while.

356
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 6: You guys know, we've been married to tech for a

357
00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,720
Speaker 6: long time and we're going to continue to.

358
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 5: Have that relationship. There's no doubt about it.

359
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 6: Especially given our preference for quality, and given our preference

360
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 6: for US equities over international we simply have the best

361
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 6: earnings here in the United States, and a lot of

362
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,200
Speaker 6: that's been driven by tech. So it's not about abandoning

363
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,400
Speaker 6: the relationship. It's just about looking around a little bit

364
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,239
Speaker 6: to see what areas of the market actually have been

365
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:47,080
Speaker 6: left in the dust and might benefit from this modest

366
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:51,199
Speaker 6: reacceleration we're seeing in economic growth and demand globally, and

367
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 6: we think that on the value side, those stocks have

368
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:54,960
Speaker 6: been ignored.

369
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:56,840
Speaker 1: I'm going to have to bite my tongue and taking

370
00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,800
Speaker 1: this analogy further, so I will leave that there for now.

371
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 1: I am curious, though, at what point this idea of

372
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 1: diversification is really predicated on a rate cutting cycle, even

373
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:06,880
Speaker 1: if it only is one that.

374
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:07,640
Speaker 5: Starts this year.

375
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,159
Speaker 1: Does that idea of diversification working fail if you get

376
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: the idea of no rate cuts this year and potentially

377
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:15,800
Speaker 1: much higher rates for longer.

378
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:17,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think so.

379
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,520
Speaker 6: I mean the idea that we're looking at is that,

380
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,400
Speaker 6: you know, we had this massive momentum fed pivot party,

381
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 6: you know, driven rally, and really tech and growth were

382
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,159
Speaker 6: the biggest beneficiaries of that. At one point, the S

383
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,639
Speaker 6: and P five hundred Growth index is trading at a

384
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 6: forty five percent premium to its long term average, and

385
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 6: really a lot of that was predicated on the idea

386
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,679
Speaker 6: that growth was slowing and that rates were going to

387
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 6: get cut. The higher for longer narrative to us really

388
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:51,000
Speaker 6: speaks to the idea of diversification and seeing some participation

389
00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:54,959
Speaker 6: from areas that really did not participate in that that

390
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 6: momentum driven pivot party rally.

391
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 5: So I think, you know, if in a higher for longer.

392
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,719
Speaker 6: Environment, which it looks like we're here to stay, we

393
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 6: do think that more cyclical areas deserve a look in portfolios.

394
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 2: Well, let's have a look at Energy this morning. So

395
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:10,960
Speaker 2: Exell came out with earnings in the last hour or so,

396
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 2: EPs in at two dollars six cents the estimate two nineteen.

397
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,119
Speaker 2: It's a small mess. The stock is a little bit

398
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:17,920
Speaker 2: lower in the pre market. Is that way you want

399
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 2: to be?

400
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 6: Yeah, we do think it looks like, you know, energy

401
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 6: can can do well here.

402
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 5: You know, those.

403
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 6: Companies in general have a lot more capital discipline. You know,

404
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 6: for years energy companies were just pumping more money into

405
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 6: producing more more oil, and now there's a lot more

406
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 6: use of that capital, whether it's capex, whether it's investment

407
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 6: in or whether it's producing dividends for investors. So we think,

408
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,439
Speaker 6: you know, certainly the portfolio managers that we work with,

409
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 6: the John Hancock have done a great job being active

410
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 6: in that space. And it's you know, feels like a

411
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 6: little bit of a twenty twenty two playbook right now

412
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 6: with the stagflation narrative coming to the forefront. And of

413
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 6: course we know that energy was really the only winner

414
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 6: that year in addition of the US dollar in cash,

415
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 6: and we want to be mindful of that.

416
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: How much weight did you put on the snag flash

417
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 2: and narrative of yesterday.

418
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 6: I think it's, you know, there's whiffs of it, John,

419
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 6: You know, obviously the first reaction and it felt like

420
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 6: a roller coaster ride yesterdays, everybody started digging further into

421
00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 6: the GDP data and deciding it wasn't really all that

422
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 6: bad and inflation wasn't all that bad.

423
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 5: I think that was the gut reaction.

424
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:24,359
Speaker 1: You know.

425
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,879
Speaker 6: The missing piece to this, the twist on the stagflation

426
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 6: argument is that the labor market is so resilient. Everyone

427
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 6: was focused on GDP yesterday, but initial claims came into

428
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 6: two hundred and seven thousand. That is, like the jobs

429
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 6: market saying there's nothing to see here. Of course, the

430
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 6: unemployment rate's still well below four percent, so the economy

431
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 6: is doing okay. You know, you look under the hood

432
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 6: at GDP, final demand was really robust. Consumer and business

433
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 6: spending still doing well. There were some pieces of the

434
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 6: pie that weren't so great. The economy's chugging along here,

435
00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 6: so I think we're still not at stag plation yet,

436
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 6: but there's kind of some whiffs in the air.

437
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: I'm trying to just imagine your investing life. So you're

438
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 1: married to mister perfect, You're dating the hot thing, which

439
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 1: is commodities. How often do you go visit the parents, which.

440
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 5: Is the bond market?

441
00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 1: I mean, basically, where does that fit in to this

442
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:12,320
Speaker 1: whole equation.

443
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,879
Speaker 6: Yeah, so you know that we've continued to emphasize bonds

444
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 6: and portfolios. You know, the fat that you can get

445
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 6: paid to wait in this never ending weight cycle environment

446
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 6: to us is really attractive. We think we'll continue to

447
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 6: see some chop and rates from here as we you know,

448
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,680
Speaker 6: look at how long it's taking to get back down

449
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 6: to the FEDS two percent targeted inflation growth picking up

450
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 6: again modestly here. It's not great, but the fat that

451
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 6: you can earn five plus percent and income owning the

452
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 6: aggregate bond index. That's something that we haven't been.

453
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 5: Able to say in a really long time.

454
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 6: So we think it makes sense to lean into bonds,

455
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 6: get paid to wait because this cycle likely ends the

456
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 6: way that it always does, which something will break.

457
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 5: It's just really hard to see that right now.

458
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 2: Lisa, who are the kids? Phone exchange? Japanese? Yen, it's

459
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 2: just going you're going to make friends this morning on Well?

460
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I just I love it dating the hot

461
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 1: thing commandities. How long can that last? That's sort of

462
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: what everybody loves. He's too perfect, you know, I absolutely

463
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: I want to go I want to go into that. Yeah, exactly,

464
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 1: it's too perfect, which means what exactly that like?

465
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 2: Why don't you want them to, you know, mend the

466
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 2: world over one another.

467
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 1: Baby and honestly a babysit frankly the crypto.

468
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 2: Emily, We're going to go, John Hancock, this is your fault.

469
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: Thank you. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you

470
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 2: the best in markets, economics, antient politics. You can watch

471
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,120
Speaker 2: the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six

472
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: am to nine am. Eastern, Subscribe to the podcast on Apple,

473
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 2: Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on

474
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.