Speaker 1: All right, guys, a lot going on this morning that
Speaker 1: we wanted to update you on, at least as best
Speaker 1: as we can tell. So let me move through a
Speaker 1: few of these elements, and again, fog of war. We're
Speaker 1: just getting reports out of Gaza this morning, so we
Speaker 1: don't have the full details of what exactly is just
Speaker 1: unfolded there, but appears from reports from journalists both on
Speaker 1: the ground in Gaza near Gaza and residents on the
Speaker 1: ground that Israel has significantly escalated their strikes and their
Speaker 1: incursion into that area, both in terms of an on
Speaker 1: the ground presence and in terms of a bombing campaign.
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and start with this first element. The
Speaker 1: first sign that we got that a lot was going
Speaker 1: down is they cut the telecoms in internet infrastructure.
Speaker 2: Put this up on the screen.
Speaker 1: This reads this phone call is from a journalist stationed
Speaker 1: at a Gaza hospital. He's able to make a call
Speaker 1: because of data roaming on Turkish simcard translation. We are
Speaker 1: in al Oxa Martyr's hospital. We have no idea what's happening.
Speaker 1: There is no connection, no Wi Fi, no reporters. We
Speaker 1: are cut off from everything. People cannot call ambulance or
Speaker 1: civil defense we were being bombed in an unprecedented manner.
Speaker 1: The sky around us just lights up with explosions. No
Speaker 1: one knows what's going on. You can't reach anyone, even
Speaker 1: if they're only five hundred meters away. Ambulances and medics
Speaker 1: are begging reporters to let them know which streets are
Speaker 1: getting bombarded to go rescue the victims, but the reporters
Speaker 1: themselves do not know where anything is happening because of
Speaker 1: the connection loss. We are trying to report the news,
Speaker 1: but we have no idea what is happening. So initial
Speaker 1: reports telecoms cut off, internet cut off, very difficult for
Speaker 1: reporters to get any sort of intel into what is
Speaker 1: going on in the ground on Gaza. But you did
Speaker 1: have people who were in and around who were able
Speaker 1: to get some communications out and who reported a bombing
Speaker 1: campaign unlike anything that they had seen thus far. And
Speaker 1: we also got official news from the Israelis themselves that
Speaker 1: this was their largest scale raid, but not yet they're
Speaker 1: saying that full ground invasion, but that we've been hearing
Speaker 1: about for so long. We'll talk more about that in
Speaker 1: a moment, but a significant raid into Gaza itself, we
Speaker 1: are just starting to get reports out this morning of
Speaker 1: what the fallout from this is. We have no idea
Speaker 1: in terms of casualty numbers yet. I haven't seen a
Speaker 1: single number floating around as of yet. Go ahead and
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. You can see here
Speaker 1: what is reported to be some of the aftermath of
Speaker 1: this bombing campaign overnight, and that's basically what we know.
Speaker 1: Let me put this last part up. Israeli mechanized forces
Speaker 1: remain inside Gaza Saturday morning at this hour, after launching
Speaker 1: the largest assault of the war last night. This is
Speaker 1: according to an IDF spokesperson. They are also claiming sobern
Speaker 1: that they were able to take out a few Hamas militants.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is this is a very confused situation and
Speaker 3: it's very difficult. You and I were talking a little
Speaker 3: bit before this. I want to lay this out for everyone.
Speaker 3: The IDF, with the mechanized forces that remain inside of
Speaker 3: Gaza at the moment that you and I are speaking,
Speaker 3: are all inside of tanks and they are claiming that
Speaker 3: they have taken zero casualties, which well, there's only one
Speaker 3: real way to take zero casualties, and that's if you
Speaker 3: don't have infantry and ground forces that are rounding those
Speaker 3: tanks that are occupying positions that are taking out militants
Speaker 3: and engaging in ground to ground, in hand to hand.
Speaker 4: Combat, or in small arms fire.
Speaker 3: So that means that they heavily bombarded these three separate
Speaker 3: areas of northern Gaza, based on what we've been able
Speaker 3: to tell during the communications blackout, massive air strikes combined
Speaker 3: with tanks. We also saw a lot of artillery that
Speaker 3: was coming from Israel going into Gaza, So it does
Speaker 3: look like this is a leveling campaign of sort.
Speaker 4: There's a couple of different ways to.
Speaker 3: Read it, which is that they're going in and they're
Speaker 3: blowing up infrastructure so that infantry and ground forces could
Speaker 3: come in, occupy that position, root out any militants, take
Speaker 3: out the tunnels, and then remove any of the obstacles
Speaker 3: in terms of infrastructure.
Speaker 4: That's one way.
Speaker 3: The other way is that this is a massive show
Speaker 3: of force just to say hey, here's what we can do,
Speaker 3: and we're going to take zero casualties in terms of
Speaker 3: the military effectiveness, I mean, we simply have no idea.
Speaker 4: Hamas has not.
Speaker 3: Confirmed any number of casualties. They were bizarre really claiming
Speaker 3: that they had destroyed a number of Israeli tanks like
Speaker 3: a thirty or something like that.
Speaker 4: That's just obviously not true.
Speaker 3: We don't know though, if they took zero or not
Speaker 3: Israeli's claim that they are. I think regardless, what we
Speaker 3: could say is that this is some sort of shaping
Speaker 3: operation of some kind. It could be a massive show
Speaker 3: of force, just like this is what could come to
Speaker 3: you unless you release these hostages.
Speaker 4: It could we be could read it that way.
Speaker 3: We could read it as one way that they're going in,
Speaker 3: they're doing this, and then they can just come out and.
Speaker 4: Be like, look, world, we did it.
Speaker 3: You know, we leveled for whatever, some percentage of the city.
Speaker 3: We took out all the infrastructure. Specifically, a lot of
Speaker 3: these were near the border areas where the strongholds were.
Speaker 3: You know, we can wrap it up, we can declare victory.
Speaker 3: And then the other way is that this is just
Speaker 3: simply a way to make sure that you can make
Speaker 3: it as safe as possible for ground forces to come
Speaker 3: in and then use these as staging operations for a
Speaker 3: full scale invasion into Gaza. But regardless, this is obviously
Speaker 3: a significant operation and with the telecoms this is making
Speaker 3: it incredibly difficult.
Speaker 4: For all of us to you have any idea of
Speaker 4: what the hell is going on.
Speaker 3: We just saw the news break this morning, Crystal that
Speaker 3: starlink elon musk as he will enable starlink access for
Speaker 3: internationally recognized humanitarian aid organizations inside of Gaza. That is
Speaker 3: a great, great step forward because up until this point,
Speaker 3: Israel had not allowed starlink access over any of their territory.
Speaker 3: So this is at least one way where we might
Speaker 3: be starting to get some information dribble out about what's happening.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see the extent of that.
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously you need telecoms for the ordinary residents,
Speaker 1: you need telecoms for the hospitals that are still operating there.
Speaker 1: You need comms for the journalists who are on the
Speaker 1: ground and the media organizations that remained there as well.
Speaker 1: So we'll see how widespread the access here is based
Speaker 1: on his definition of internationally recognized aid organizations. But you know,
Speaker 1: just to keep the focus for a second on the
Speaker 1: human beings who are being impacted here. You've already in
Speaker 1: Gaza had people who've been subjected to bombings over weeks
Speaker 1: at this point, and then you have the additional terror
Speaker 1: of complete blackout and what does that mean. That means
Speaker 1: that if you have someone who's injured or wounded, you
Speaker 1: can't call an ambulance, Medics can't figure out where to
Speaker 1: go and how to help. You have total inability if
Speaker 1: you've you know, your friends and family members to stay
Speaker 1: in touch with them and know if or whether they
Speaker 1: are alive and well. So you couple that with what
Speaker 1: you know journalists both inside of Gaza and nearby to
Speaker 1: Gaza described as another level of bombing campaign alongside of
Speaker 1: the ground incursion, and you can just imagine the absolute terrists.
Speaker 1: I said, we haven't gotten any numbers yet from anyone
Speaker 1: about potential additional casualties, but you can expect that they
Speaker 1: are likely significant given what we're already seeing of the
Speaker 1: level of devastation on the ground. We also have some
Speaker 1: news here from the US which is increasingly sounding these
Speaker 1: notes of like, oh, we're concerned about what's going on.
Speaker 1: Of course they never throw withhold the aid or do
Speaker 1: anything about, you know, trying to change the trajectory of
Speaker 1: what's going on, but their notes of caution are growing
Speaker 1: larger and louder. Soccer, you had Secretary of Defense Lloyd
Speaker 1: Austin speaking with the Israeli Minister of Defense underscoring the
Speaker 1: importance of protecting civilians during the IDF operations in Gaza,
Speaker 1: focusing on the urgency of humanitarian aid delivery for civilians
Speaker 1: in Gaza.
Speaker 2: You know, I think there's been.
Speaker 1: A lot of reporting coming out about how the US
Speaker 1: has been urging the Israelis to not do the full
Speaker 1: ground invasion, that they were sort of horrified that there
Speaker 1: was no real plan in place, that they do not
Speaker 1: think that it will accomplish the objective of destroying Hamas,
Speaker 1: that it could very well easily spark that larger regional war,
Speaker 1: and so you know, these are the types of notes
Speaker 1: that they're sounding at this point. But again, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's all kind of meaningless when you're not actually willing
Speaker 1: to use the leverage you have to shape the outcome
Speaker 1: and shape the operation itself.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fascinating to watch them basically behind the scenes being.
Speaker 4: Like please please, please please, please don't do it. Just
Speaker 4: do surgical strikes, just go in.
Speaker 3: Basically try and recreate US Joint Special Operations Command, which
Speaker 3: goes in helicopter late at night, lands on the roof,
Speaker 3: kills all the militants inside, gets out minimals million casualties,
Speaker 3: you actually take out the leadership of the organization. Israel
Speaker 3: is well equipped to do that. The US obviously is
Speaker 3: incredibly well could easily train them or at least help
Speaker 3: them to do so. That does not appear what they
Speaker 3: want to do or but who knows, I mean, we
Speaker 3: don't know. There's a lot of things inside the Israeli
Speaker 3: war cabinet. Nobody has agreed on anything. I think what
Speaker 3: we can definitely see is that inside of the Biden administration,
Speaker 3: those initial calls on October eighth of Israel can do
Speaker 3: whatever it wants, that's gone.
Speaker 4: That is not the reality anymore.
Speaker 3: And I believe it is because of the extensive experience
Speaker 3: of the United States military has and the US government
Speaker 3: also in these urban warfare combat situations. I mean, I
Speaker 3: actually Crystal went and started reading the Modern War Institute
Speaker 3: from West Point Excellent has done multiple urban warfare case
Speaker 3: studies on the US experience on ISIS and Mosl, the
Speaker 3: US experience, and multiple other urban warfare situations. They also
Speaker 3: wrote something up about Hamas and in Gaza. Everything that
Speaker 3: they're talking about there is that in Mosol, for example,
Speaker 3: Iraqi security forces with US air cover so the most
Speaker 3: sophisticated air force known to man took one to one
Speaker 3: casualties for that every militant that was killed and Iraqi
Speaker 3: soldier was killed.
Speaker 4: And then on top of that, more.
Speaker 3: Civilians were killed than all of the ISIS fighters combined.
Speaker 3: So they took thirty thousand and that's one to one ratio.
Speaker 3: And I've laid this out before. This is with the
Speaker 3: civilian population that did not support ISIS. This is a
Speaker 3: completely different scenario. And we've got fifty thousand fighters instead
Speaker 3: of eight to ten thousand ISIS fighters, the sheer scale
Speaker 3: of the military operation, and even the questions about the
Speaker 3: political capability of the Israelis, I mean, are you ready, Israel?
Speaker 3: Are you ready to take fifty thousand casualties in order
Speaker 3: to accomplish this goal. The polling already out coming outside
Speaker 3: of Israel. I'm sure we'll have a lot of this
Speaker 3: on our Monday show, is that a huge portion of
Speaker 3: their public does not support a ground invasion.
Speaker 4: I think because they can see.
Speaker 3: Reality and these are their sons, these are their brothers,
Speaker 3: these are their sisters, their mothers. I mean, the entire
Speaker 3: half the country or whatever has been called up for service.
Speaker 3: You have some five hundred thousand people. This is a
Speaker 3: no joke military operation if they actually want to go.
Speaker 4: Through with it.
Speaker 3: So all I think reality is all starting to hit
Speaker 3: and we haven't even mentioned the broader war. So let's
Speaker 3: put this up there on the screen. As we had mentioned,
Speaker 3: multiple US targets were hit and have been hit since
Speaker 3: October seven, some twenty one US soldiers have suffered traumatic
Speaker 3: brain injuries. On top of that, the United States has
Speaker 3: now carried out a military operation and airstrikes against IRGC
Speaker 3: affiliated militias in eastern Syria that was on October twenty six,
Speaker 3: two days ago. The President has informed via the War
Speaker 3: Powers Notification Act to Congress saying that the recent air
Speaker 3: strikes against these Iranian militias followed over fifteen drone and
Speaker 3: rocket attacks by militias on US forces in sira in Iraq,
Speaker 3: resulting in the death of an American contractor, as well as
Speaker 3: the injury of at least thirty service members. This letter
Speaker 3: states the United States stands ready to further take action
Speaker 3: as necessary and appropriate to address further threats or attacks. Also,
Speaker 3: we have a new announcement from the Iranian Foreign Minister
Speaker 3: this morning saying that increased incursions mean increased you know,
Speaker 3: military activity or can in the future.
Speaker 4: We don't know yet.
Speaker 3: What that will materialize or look like. There's a lot
Speaker 3: of concern especially with Iranian backed militias obviously Hesbola, but
Speaker 3: also the Huthis in Yemen, their ability to mount multiple
Speaker 3: force attacks against US forces in Iraq and in Syria.
Speaker 4: There are already reports.
Speaker 3: Coming out crystal from the defense press that multiple US
Speaker 3: positions have had to be abandoned forward operating bases because
Speaker 3: they're so vulnerable.
Speaker 4: You know, we're sitting ducks at.
Speaker 3: Our service members a lot of a lot of places
Speaker 3: very very near Iran. Just two three weeks ago, they
Speaker 3: were you know, they had nothing going on, and now
Speaker 3: they're finding themselves like absolutely so vulnerable to attack. So
Speaker 3: there's this is a very very very difficult situation in
Speaker 3: terms of what the military operation is going to look like.
Speaker 4: There's just no question.
Speaker 3: I mean, if the civilian casualty ratio is one to one,
Speaker 3: then you can just do the math for every HUMMAS
Speaker 3: fighter that they claim to kill, that means at least
Speaker 3: one civilian was likely killed, but probably more considering the
Speaker 3: scale of this campaign. And then you know, the Israelis
Speaker 3: themselves have not yet had to suffer any casualties, but
Speaker 3: they will if they want to go in and accomplish
Speaker 3: what they claim that they do.
Speaker 1: To your point about the civilian death toll before this
Speaker 1: latest intensification and bombardment where you know, we have no comms,
Speaker 1: so we really don't know what's going on. Before that,
Speaker 1: you had purported over six thousand people killed in Gaza
Speaker 1: and according to the IDF and what had come out publicly,
Speaker 1: thirteen Hamas militants confirmed dead. So that gives you a
Speaker 1: sense of the disproportionate nature the overwhelming number of civilian deaths.
Speaker 1: And you know, not only is this, as we've said
Speaker 1: many times, an incredibly crowded area and incredibly dense.
Speaker 2: You know, even the area in.
Speaker 1: The south that they told people to flee to is
Speaker 1: also suffering under constant bombardment. And nearly half the population
Speaker 1: are children. So it is a horrific toll that's being
Speaker 1: taken here. And you know, the Israelis are not They're
Speaker 1: not foolish. They have an incredibly sophisticated military and intelligence apparatus,
Speaker 1: even you know, in spite of the failures that they
Speaker 1: you know that we witnessed on October seventh. But I
Speaker 1: think we should stop pretending like the real goal is
Speaker 1: to take out Hamas, because nothing in their actions thus
Speaker 1: far suggests that that's consistent with the goal. I think
Speaker 1: even if they took the actions that you know, the
Speaker 1: counter Intel Special and Jocko Willink and all these people
Speaker 1: are saying they should take, I think it's an impossible goal.
Speaker 1: They clearly have no plan for, you know, if they
Speaker 1: were able to somehow miraculously actually completely remove Hama's leadership,
Speaker 1: what comes next. It seems to me like this is
Speaker 1: just all about retribution. This is what the Israeli public
Speaker 1: wants out of the trauma that you know, in the
Speaker 1: horror that they suffered on October seventh. You see this
Speaker 1: reflected in the statements of you know, supposedly moderate politicians
Speaker 1: like Isaac Hertzog, the President of Israel, who is supposed
Speaker 1: to be like the moderate face of Israel, who's out
Speaker 1: saying there are no innocent civilians. You have other members
Speaker 1: of the Kanesset saying the children of Gaza brought this
Speaker 1: on themselves. I mean, this is the type of commonplace
Speaker 1: rhetoric that you're hearing with very little backlash or opprobrium
Speaker 1: to I mean, much more of the backlash comes to
Speaker 1: anyone who says, hey, you know, let's not just decimate
Speaker 1: the Gaza population. So that gives you the sense of
Speaker 1: where the energy is on the ground among the Israeli public.
Speaker 2: I think part of why there's.
Speaker 1: Been a reluctance at this point and a change in
Speaker 1: opinion from the Israeli public on whether or not to
Speaker 1: do the full ground invasion is fear over IDF casualties
Speaker 1: and also fear about what happens with the hostages. I mean,
Speaker 1: that still remains a major issue, and there's still a
Speaker 1: lot of questions over whether some of the hostages have
Speaker 1: already been killed by the strikes that have occurred. We really,
Speaker 1: you know, we have note there's been some reporting of
Speaker 1: a very little knowledge of what is happening there on
Speaker 1: the ground. So so in any case, you know, I
Speaker 1: think this operation's very clear is just about it's about
Speaker 1: retaliation and this supposed military goal of taking out Hamas.
Speaker 1: I don't think they really believe that that is what
Speaker 1: they're after. I think they're just trying to I Thinknai
Speaker 1: is trying to preserve, trying to save his own butt
Speaker 1: in terms of his political future.
Speaker 2: That's part of.
Speaker 1: Why he's wanted to drag this out, because he says, hey,
Speaker 1: we'll do an inquiry, we'll ask the hard questions, but
Speaker 1: after the war is over. So he has a you know,
Speaker 1: he has all the incentive in the world to drag
Speaker 1: this out and keep this going as long as possible.
Speaker 1: And then you also have, you know, the US, which
Speaker 1: is responding to a growing protest movement here and around
Speaker 1: the world, and understanding that if the images that are
Speaker 1: coming out of Gaza already continue to emerge and the
Speaker 1: brutality and scale of the brutality increases even further, that
Speaker 1: you could very easily end up with this broader regional
Speaker 1: war and backlash to the point of the protest movement
Speaker 1: escalating here in the US. You actually had a group
Speaker 1: of Jewish protesters we can put this up on the
Speaker 1: screen calling for a ceasefire, who kind of took over
Speaker 1: a Grand Central station in New York. They were there,
Speaker 1: you know, the sort of flooded in there. Police were
Speaker 1: trying to close the exits, but people kept coming in.
Speaker 1: Eventually they they said, we don't have an official tally
Speaker 1: from NYPD, but the organizers of the protests said, some
Speaker 1: hundreds of protesters were arrested there. You also have a
Speaker 1: large protest planned for DC in I think it's that's
Speaker 1: next weekend that that is planned for.
Speaker 2: So you can see the backlash.
Speaker 1: Where the American public initially, of course overwhelmingly shocked, overwhelmingly
Speaker 1: sympathizing with the Israelis after the Hamas terror attack, but
Speaker 1: very quickly as people realize, hey, we could get dragged
Speaker 1: into this thing, and seeing the images coming out of
Speaker 1: Gaza being horrified about what's being done there, you know,
Speaker 1: with our backing and with our support, public opinion here
Speaker 1: is shifting very rapidly as well.
Speaker 3: I think it easily could shift quickly. It doesn't take
Speaker 3: a genius. And that's also if that's the Israelis aim,
Speaker 3: then they better wrap it up soon because the more
Speaker 3: that you keep going, and if you're going to keep
Speaker 3: this going for a long time, you're just diminishing support
Speaker 3: in the West is going to increase, the EU already
Speaker 3: changing its position.
Speaker 4: And then on top of all of that.
Speaker 3: You have the broader war fears, and you have a
Speaker 3: growing protest moving here in the US which.
Speaker 4: Cannot be ignored.
Speaker 3: I mean, these are some of the largest anti war
Speaker 3: protests probably what since the Iraq War. Definitely in the
Speaker 3: United States that is not you cannot ignore that, you know,
Speaker 3: hundreds of thousands march again Iraq War. If this continues,
Speaker 3: event especially if US involvement gets on the question, I
Speaker 3: can absolutely see a scenario where it could increase. So
Speaker 3: we're doing our best here just to give everybody the updates.
Speaker 3: If there is a necessary one for tomorrow, we will
Speaker 3: do so.
Speaker 4: But otherwise we've got a Monday show.
Speaker 3: Shout out to the premium subs who enable us to
Speaker 3: be able to do all of this.
Speaker 4: But anything else, Crystal.
Speaker 1: I think that wraps it up as far as we
Speaker 1: can tell, and of course we'll continue to follow whatever
Speaker 1: we can that's unfolding on the ground there.
Speaker 4: All right, We'll see you guys later