WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Winter Olympics, Japan Election

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the

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<v Speaker 1>top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors

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<v Speaker 1>all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>look to the January jobs report and how that could

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<v Speaker 1>affect fed policy. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm callin Hepga in London, where we're discussing snow, ice

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<v Speaker 2>and geopolitics the twenty twenty six Winter Olympics in Italy.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Doug Prisner looking ahead to the snap election in

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<v Speaker 3>Japan and what the outcome means for the Japanese economy.

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<v Speaker 4>That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. I'm Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 4>eleven three year, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC,

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Syrias

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<v Speaker 4>XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio,

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<v Speaker 4>dot Com and the Bloomberg Business Appo.

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<v Speaker 1>Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. Let's take a

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<v Speaker 1>look now at some stocks making news in the week ahead.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nathan Hagar with Mandeep Saying, Global head of Tech

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<v Speaker 1>Research at Bloomberg Intelligence. Great to have you on is

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to be looking ahead to a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>big tech stocks in the week ahead. What are we

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<v Speaker 1>expecting when it comes to earnings from Google parent Alphabet? Mandy?

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<v Speaker 5>Look, I mean what we saw with Meta was you know,

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<v Speaker 5>accelerating top line growth, and in the case of Google,

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<v Speaker 5>both the search business as well as the YouTube business

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<v Speaker 5>have I would say modest expectations going in the quarter,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, low to mid teens growth. So, I mean

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<v Speaker 5>we've felt double digit growth for Alphabet over the last

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<v Speaker 5>few quarters, what was very impressive given you know, the

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<v Speaker 5>threat from Chat GPT, But I think Meta has really

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<v Speaker 5>raised the bar in terms of digital ad growth in

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<v Speaker 5>the fourth quarter. So I would be looking for accelerating

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<v Speaker 5>top line growth at least high teens growth for YouTube

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<v Speaker 5>and you know, low to maintains growth for the core

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<v Speaker 5>search business of Alphabet.

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<v Speaker 1>Since you mentioned meta platforms, we should say that the

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<v Speaker 1>AI spend from Microsoft seemed to spook a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>investors last week. Given that Alphabet has its Google Cloud business,

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<v Speaker 1>could that be a concern for investors there when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to AI spend in the cloud?

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<v Speaker 5>You're right, I mean what Microsoft Sprint has shown is

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<v Speaker 5>you can't really miss the cloud growth numbers. So in

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<v Speaker 5>the case of alphabet expectations, our Google Cloud will have

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<v Speaker 5>at least thirty five percent growth. And based on the

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<v Speaker 5>work that we have done, I mean, Google really has

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<v Speaker 5>had some very impressive, impressive deal wins this quarter in

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<v Speaker 5>their cloud segments, so chances are they should do better.

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<v Speaker 5>And remember Google has their TPUs, so they shouldn't be

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<v Speaker 5>as supply constrained as Microsoft probably was in the quarter

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<v Speaker 5>with the GPU situation. So my guess is Google Cloud

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<v Speaker 5>segment would see sequential acceleration and they should be the

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<v Speaker 5>consensus number handedly And.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you see Google's TPU processors fairing compared to

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<v Speaker 1>the GPUs that we get from Nvidia.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, if there's one theme that we have heard

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<v Speaker 5>so far this earning season is AI infrastructure demand remains

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<v Speaker 5>insatiable and all these companies are wanting to get as

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<v Speaker 5>much you know, compute capacity as they can. So Google's TPUs,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, are used both internally for Google overviews and

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<v Speaker 5>across their family off apps as well as they're used

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<v Speaker 5>on Google Cloud. And so from that perspective, I do think,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, Google should be able to show the most

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<v Speaker 5>efficiency when it comes to AI infrastructure and that should

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<v Speaker 5>get reflected in their growth margins, which I expect to

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<v Speaker 5>be better than the rest of the hyperscalers.

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<v Speaker 1>We're also going to hear from Amazon this week they

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<v Speaker 1>report their earnings. What are you expecting from their cloud

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<v Speaker 1>unit aws?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean you want to see all these cloud

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<v Speaker 5>companies show sequential acceleration. It didn't happen with Microsoft, hence

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<v Speaker 5>we saw that negative reaction, and in the case of Atablus,

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<v Speaker 5>I would say expectations again are like for low twenty

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<v Speaker 5>percent growth. So given they are the largest cloud provider,

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<v Speaker 5>I mean they should be able to beat those numbers.

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<v Speaker 5>But look what we have heard so far is supply

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<v Speaker 5>constraints are real when it comes to AI compute capacity

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<v Speaker 5>and that may have a bearing on whether ada BLUs

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<v Speaker 5>ends up beating those consensus numbers or not.

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<v Speaker 1>Is low twenty percent enough to wow investors?

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<v Speaker 5>No, but you want to see that sequential acceleration. So

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<v Speaker 5>I mentioned about the size of Atablus, So that's almost

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<v Speaker 5>one hundred and thirty five billion dollar dollar rundrate business

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<v Speaker 5>for Amazon. Contrast that with Microsoft, which is more one

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<v Speaker 5>hundred billion, and Google Cloud is like sixty billion rund

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<v Speaker 5>rates so given their size, I mean, low twenty percent

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<v Speaker 5>would be in line, but anything more than that would

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<v Speaker 5>be impressive, and I think that would help those dock.

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<v Speaker 1>And along with Amazon and Alphabet. Another a in big

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<v Speaker 1>tech reports this week advanced micro devices. How's the computer

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<v Speaker 1>chip business looking right now? Mandy?

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, look, Meta just told us they plan to

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<v Speaker 5>spend up to one hundred and thirty five billion dollars

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<v Speaker 5>in CAPEX, which is a seventy percent increase from what

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<v Speaker 5>they spent in twenty twenty five. So we were modeling

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<v Speaker 5>like fifty percent increase in CAPEX from hyperscalers going into

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty six. Chances are that number will be revised upward,

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<v Speaker 5>and so it will trickle down to the likes of AMD,

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<v Speaker 5>which is is the you know, the second biggest GPU

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<v Speaker 5>provider after Nvidia, and so to my mind, AMDs deal

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<v Speaker 5>with open ai and some of the other business that

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<v Speaker 5>they have won over the last few months should help,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, exceed expectations when they print their results.

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<v Speaker 1>Does a m D need to show more market share

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<v Speaker 1>compared to Nvidia.

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<v Speaker 5>I think this is such a big market that everyone

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<v Speaker 5>is realizing that you don't need to, you know, win

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<v Speaker 5>market share from Nvidia as long as you have a

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<v Speaker 5>good product that you know companies are interested in buying,

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<v Speaker 5>and open Ai has that deal with a m D.

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<v Speaker 5>Now that is a big leap of faith in terms

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<v Speaker 5>of MD's capabilities to supply you know, six gigawatts of

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<v Speaker 5>power that has all a m D chips, and I

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<v Speaker 5>think that should help them win more prize business over time.

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<v Speaker 1>Appreciate this man deep as always. That's Mandeep Saying, Global

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<v Speaker 1>head of Tech Research at Bloomberg Intelligence. We move next

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<v Speaker 1>to some key economic data in the US. Our first

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<v Speaker 1>full look at the labor market for twenty twenty six

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<v Speaker 1>so far comes out this Friday at eight thirty Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street time, and we get non farm payrolls for January.

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<v Speaker 1>Ahead of that. We're joined by Michael McKee, our international

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<v Speaker 1>economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg Radio and Television.

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<v Speaker 6>Mike.

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<v Speaker 1>The theme we keep hearing from the data leading up

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<v Speaker 1>to this report is this is a low, higher, low

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<v Speaker 1>fire labor market. So are we expecting to see that

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<v Speaker 1>reflected in the Big Daddy report coming out this week?

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<v Speaker 7>That is what we are expecting to see. The interesting

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<v Speaker 7>thing about this report, of course, is it's the first

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<v Speaker 7>one since the government shutdown ended. That isn't going to

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<v Speaker 7>be distorted by the government shutdown. It's a full month

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<v Speaker 7>of data collected and the normal processing time. So to

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<v Speaker 7>the extent that it tells us something about where the

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<v Speaker 7>labor market is, it should be relatively accurate. The Fed

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<v Speaker 7>last week, in their assessment of the economy at their

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<v Speaker 7>meeting said that while we were still seeing low hiring,

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<v Speaker 7>the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized, so they seem

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<v Speaker 7>to think that things are getting a little bit better.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so how could we see that reflected in the

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<v Speaker 1>data itself. Where are we seeing signs of studying in

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<v Speaker 1>the labor market.

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<v Speaker 7>Well, the biggest is in the unemployment rate. It fell

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<v Speaker 7>last time last month for the December number to four

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<v Speaker 7>point four percent, and we're not expecting that to change.

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<v Speaker 7>According to the economists survey by Bloomberg stays at four

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<v Speaker 7>point four percent, so a sign of stability there. And

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<v Speaker 7>the interesting thing is the December payrolls report was only

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<v Speaker 7>fifty thousand. Obviously we will get some sort of revision,

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<v Speaker 7>but right now we're looking at seventy thousand is the

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<v Speaker 7>forecast by economists for January, so that would be a

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<v Speaker 7>little bit stronger and we saw in the month before.

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<v Speaker 1>But still pretty subdued compared to where we've been historically.

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<v Speaker 1>So what could this mean for the Federal Reserve going forward?

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<v Speaker 7>Well, the FAT doesn't know, and that's one of the

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<v Speaker 7>things that they're going to be looking at. The whole

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<v Speaker 7>question surrounds all of these low numbers. Is it because

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<v Speaker 7>companies don't want to hire right now? Or is it

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<v Speaker 7>because they don't have people to hire? In other words,

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<v Speaker 7>has the administration's cracked down on immigration and the ejection

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<v Speaker 7>of people from the economy and scaring people into staying

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<v Speaker 7>home from work. Does that mean that there are fewer

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<v Speaker 7>people to hire? And that's one of the big reasons

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<v Speaker 7>that we're not seeing the same kind of payroll growth,

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<v Speaker 7>and it's going to take a while to figure that out.

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<v Speaker 7>We do, however, Nathan, get an update on the population estimates.

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<v Speaker 7>This comes once a year in January, and that should

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<v Speaker 7>change that should that will make December and January numbers

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<v Speaker 7>not quite comparable, and it does figure to change the

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<v Speaker 7>labor force participation rate perhaps a little bit. So we'll

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<v Speaker 7>be starting fresh, but also having some sort of idea

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<v Speaker 7>of what's going on.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, there's also the big question about whether artificial intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>is playing a role in labor market dynamics as well.

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<v Speaker 1>We've heard that from a number of Federal Reserve speakers.

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<v Speaker 1>Where's the thinking on that right now?

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<v Speaker 7>Well, the thinking is is that artificial intelligence will take

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<v Speaker 7>a larger and larger share of the labor force, but

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<v Speaker 7>we're not completely clear on where it is. The logical

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<v Speaker 7>answer is that we'll see lower paid, lower skilled people

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<v Speaker 7>lose their jobs to computers. But of course people are

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<v Speaker 7>talking about folks in the finance industry or folks in law,

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<v Speaker 7>especially at the lower ends, the beginning, the interns, they

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<v Speaker 7>would lose their jobs because then the computer can do

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<v Speaker 7>it all. So we are expecting some sort of change,

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<v Speaker 7>but the question is how fast. And that's where some

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<v Speaker 7>people at the Fed are concerned that maybe we're getting

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<v Speaker 7>ahead of ourselves in terms of the in terms of

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<v Speaker 7>the impact on today's jobs reports, because companies are starting

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<v Speaker 7>to adopt this stuff, but they haven't had a lot

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<v Speaker 7>of time to figure out who they don't need anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course there's a lot of question, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of focus at the White House on job growth, the

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<v Speaker 1>whole idea of trade policy coming out of the Trump

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<v Speaker 1>administration is that it's going to boost manufacturing jobs. Are

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<v Speaker 1>we seeing any signs that that is starting to take hold?

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<v Speaker 5>No.

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<v Speaker 7>Since the president came to office, we've lost manufacturing jobs,

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<v Speaker 7>and that's been one of the flaws in their whole argument.

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<v Speaker 7>We are not seeing manufacturing payrolls go up. Now, we

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<v Speaker 7>don't have an estimate yet for the change in manufacturing payrolls.

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<v Speaker 7>That'll come later in the week as we get close

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<v Speaker 7>to the release. But in December we lost eight thousand

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<v Speaker 7>manufacturing jobs. So there's still a lot of concern about

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<v Speaker 7>where this all goes and whether or not we're going

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<v Speaker 7>to see an increase in manufacturing jobs, because what tends

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<v Speaker 7>to happen is that if a company builds a new factory,

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<v Speaker 7>they put a lot of machines and robots and things

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<v Speaker 7>in there, and so you don't get the additional jobs

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<v Speaker 7>that you thought you might.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for this, Mike, As always, that's Michael McKee, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>International Economics and Policy correspondent, head of the non farm

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<v Speaker 1>Payrolls Report for January. This Friday at eight thirty Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street Time, and coming up on Bloomberg Day Break weekend,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll look ahead to the twenty fifth Winter Olympic Games

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<v Speaker 1>in Italy. I'm Nathan Hagert, and this is Bloomberg. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead at

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<v Speaker 1>the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Nathan hager in Washington. Up later in our program, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>look ahead to a general election in Japan and we'll

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<v Speaker 1>focus on a policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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<v Speaker 1>But first, the twenty fifth Winter Olympic Games kickoff in

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<v Speaker 1>Italy in the next few days. Though the event promises

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<v Speaker 1>fireworks on the sporting stage, could diplomatic tensions between the

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<v Speaker 1>US and Europe threaten to upstage the proceedings for more.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak europe

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<v Speaker 1>Banker Caroline Hepger.

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<v Speaker 2>Nathan, I'm tempted to say that delivering the Milano Cortina

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty six Winter Olympics maybe as tricky as pulling

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<v Speaker 2>off one of those wild stunts in the freestyle big

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<v Speaker 2>air competition. The Olympics is meant to be unifying, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>but it can also serve to highlight geopolitical tensions between

0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:55.520
<v Speaker 2>countries with concerns often about sportswashing. Then there's the issue

0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 2>of delivering the event, including all the venues in the Alps,

0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 2>on time and in some ways sustainably. For this Olympics,

0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.720
<v Speaker 2>which begins on the sixth of February, followed by the

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:11.239
<v Speaker 2>Paralympics a month later in March, there has been considerable

0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:15.000
<v Speaker 2>attention and protests by Italian officials over US plans to

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:19.720
<v Speaker 2>deployed some ICE staff to this year's event. Bloomberg understands

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.240
<v Speaker 2>that ICE agents will be in Italy as part of

0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 2>the security details for the Vice President JD Vance and

0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 2>Secuy of State Marco Rubio, according to an official from

0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:33.760
<v Speaker 2>the US Secret Service, but the agency's role in an

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.479
<v Speaker 2>immigration crackdown at home is stirring opposition overseas.

0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:38.440
<v Speaker 7>Now.

0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:41.600
<v Speaker 2>This year's Olympics is also said against the backdrop of

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 2>increasing division between the United States and Europe. Recently, the

0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 2>NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter told the European Parliament that

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 2>the Transatlantic Alliance is vital to the region's survival.

0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 6>So when President Trump is doing good stuff IV operation,

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.840
<v Speaker 6>and I don't mind him publishing text messages, and if

0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:06.400
<v Speaker 6>anyone thinks here again that the European Union or europerson

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:09.680
<v Speaker 6>Hall can dissent itself as out to us, keep on dreaming.

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 6>You count, we count, We need each other.

0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 2>That was NATO's Mark Rutter speaking there so well. Italy's

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 2>Winter Olympics feature more ice than they bargained for. Joining

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:25.040
<v Speaker 2>me now to discuss is Bloomberg's Milan bureau chief Tomaso

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:29.080
<v Speaker 2>eb Haarts. Tomaso, let's start by thinking about these Winter

0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 2>Olympics taking place in the Alps in the next few days.

0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 2>I suppose the first big question, and maybe it's always

0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:40.240
<v Speaker 2>the case for the Olympics, are all the venues going

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:41.040
<v Speaker 2>to be ready?

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:45.440
<v Speaker 8>So those games will be spread all over the north

0:15:45.520 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 8>of Italy, not just on the Alpso the main city

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:53.440
<v Speaker 8>where the opening ceremony will be Friday is Milana. And

0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.920
<v Speaker 8>then you're going to have the different sports to be

0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 8>held in different locations. Fortina where you're going to have

0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:05.479
<v Speaker 8>the women's ski races, You're going to have in Lombardy, Bormeo,

0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 8>You're going to have games also in the Suti Role region.

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:15.080
<v Speaker 8>So what is interesting is that somehow to reduce the

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 8>cost of the Olympics, they have been spread ref location

0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:23.040
<v Speaker 8>where essentially most of the venues were already built and ready.

0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:28.480
<v Speaker 8>For example, the Vietnam will be held in anter Holz,

0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:31.880
<v Speaker 8>which is already one of the most famous locations in

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 8>the Alps for this kind of sport. There are some

0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 8>new venues, especially one Milan for highs hockey, which was

0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:41.480
<v Speaker 8>just completed. There were just some criticism about how is

0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 8>it built, about the quality of the eyes, but it

0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:47.200
<v Speaker 8>looks like it's almost ready. If you walk around the

0:16:47.240 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 8>city in Milan, you see a lot of temporary building

0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.760
<v Speaker 8>that will be used for the Olympics. While what I'm hearing,

0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:57.800
<v Speaker 8>for example that in Cortina Adam Pazza on the Alps,

0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:00.920
<v Speaker 8>not all everything that was meant to be built for

0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:05.600
<v Speaker 8>the Olympic is rady, but for sure the infrastructure there

0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.480
<v Speaker 8>was a huge investment in infrastructure. This is what probably

0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:12.400
<v Speaker 8>was the most important investment for those Olympics.

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 2>It's also really interesting Olympics because it's one of the

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:18.880
<v Speaker 2>first times in a long time that a Winter Olympics

0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:22.919
<v Speaker 2>is going to be sort of within easy reach of

0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 2>US scheduling. And yet maybe a lot of the build

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.960
<v Speaker 2>up to the Winter Olympics is going to have been

0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 2>dominated by this spat, this disagreement around ice agents maybe

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:44.959
<v Speaker 2>or staff being involved in the Winter Olympics somehow, maybe

0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.879
<v Speaker 2>just to protect high ranking US officials who are going

0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:50.320
<v Speaker 2>to be visiting. But there's been quite a lot of

0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:54.200
<v Speaker 2>pushback about it. Can you describe how the Italian government's

0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:55.080
<v Speaker 2>been handling it?

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:57.960
<v Speaker 8>In the last week was a high hab on the

0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 8>debate in Italy the involvement of ICE in the Olympics.

0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:07.440
<v Speaker 8>There were some Italian official or protested but vigorously, including

0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:12.760
<v Speaker 8>Milian Mayor Giusepe Sala who, following the latest involvement of

0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:16.600
<v Speaker 8>ICE in the US I, said they're not welcome in Milan.

0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:22.439
<v Speaker 8>Then for days Italian official somehow tried to keep the

0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:26.480
<v Speaker 8>situation under control until there was a meeting between the

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.560
<v Speaker 8>Italian Interior Minister and the US embassy in Rome. After

0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:35.280
<v Speaker 8>that it was clear that ICE agents will be involved

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:40.280
<v Speaker 8>just within their domestic offices, so that means they will

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:44.800
<v Speaker 8>be deployed in the US consulate and this somehow as

0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:45.760
<v Speaker 8>a calme a.

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 5>Little bit attention.

0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:52.040
<v Speaker 8>Some Italians are protesting clearly, and the Italian government had

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 8>larified which will be the involvement of ice in the

0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:58.879
<v Speaker 8>in the Olympics, And I have to say that clearly.

0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:02.840
<v Speaker 8>The news great a lot of attention.

0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:06.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and Georgia Maloney of course, that the Prime Minister

0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:12.120
<v Speaker 2>is often seen as a Trump ally. I suppose there's

0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:16.920
<v Speaker 2>also maybe a question that whilst the Olympic officials want

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 2>to present this, want to present sports, as is so

0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:23.640
<v Speaker 2>often the case, as a kind of unifying message, there's

0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:27.479
<v Speaker 2>a danger that it will highlight the divisions between Europe

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:31.480
<v Speaker 2>and the US that we've seen, you know, geopolitically. That's

0:19:31.560 --> 0:19:34.160
<v Speaker 2>going to be surely quite hard to handle.

0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:38.439
<v Speaker 8>Clearly, Maloney is seen as one of the European leader

0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:42.480
<v Speaker 8>closer to Trump. She is a key figure at the

0:19:42.520 --> 0:19:49.439
<v Speaker 8>moment in europea also because of the hair closer ties

0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 8>and other with the Trump. That doesn't mean that they

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:55.840
<v Speaker 8>are always on the same bench. For example, on Greenland,

0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.560
<v Speaker 8>Maloney was aligned with the rest of the European leaders

0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:04.000
<v Speaker 8>while answering to Trump's request. I think that what you

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:08.360
<v Speaker 8>said is clearly an interesting aspect during Olympics, not only

0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:10.720
<v Speaker 8>the Olympic committee, but you know, the buzz should be

0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:14.720
<v Speaker 8>on sport and not on a geopolitical tension. But you know,

0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:19.160
<v Speaker 8>we're living quite i would say, a very interesting time

0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:21.720
<v Speaker 8>in terms of geopolitical news. If you want to call

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:24.760
<v Speaker 8>them interesting and so clearly this is part of the

0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.440
<v Speaker 8>public debate and will be also during the Olympics. For sure,

0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:31.080
<v Speaker 8>the eyes of the world will be on Milan for

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:35.040
<v Speaker 8>the opening ceremony and then on the out for the Olympics.

0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.200
<v Speaker 2>No doubt, I'm sure people are also getting very excited

0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:40.800
<v Speaker 2>about it to watch. I mean, what are usually just

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:45.240
<v Speaker 2>spectacular events, aren't they The acrobatics and the kind of

0:20:45.320 --> 0:20:48.600
<v Speaker 2>area display snowboarding and skiing and so on, which sort

0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:53.840
<v Speaker 2>of brings me to snow. The other aspect of this

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:58.640
<v Speaker 2>is that climate change is affecting the Alps so deeply,

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:01.680
<v Speaker 2>and there's been a lot of anticipation about how much

0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:06.080
<v Speaker 2>snowfall has been arriving. You know that there's been in

0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:09.120
<v Speaker 2>the days leading up to this, and the creation obviously

0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:12.440
<v Speaker 2>of fake snow you know where you kind of generate

0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:15.479
<v Speaker 2>it for the ski slopes. Climate change is also huge

0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:16.760
<v Speaker 2>good news.

0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:20.800
<v Speaker 8>In the last couple of week there has been heavy

0:21:21.440 --> 0:21:24.680
<v Speaker 8>snow falls on the Alps and on the Dolomites that

0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:30.200
<v Speaker 8>were still start in summer mood until a few days ago,

0:21:30.440 --> 0:21:33.199
<v Speaker 8>So there will be white Olympics. It's quite happy, but

0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:37.720
<v Speaker 8>for sure, as it happens nowadays quite often in the

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:41.800
<v Speaker 8>Alps that most of the snow which was prepared for

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:46.920
<v Speaker 8>the Olympics was the snow that is also been prepared

0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.280
<v Speaker 8>for tourists, because you know, the ski industry and the

0:21:50.320 --> 0:21:55.720
<v Speaker 8>tourist industry is crucial. The atmosphere is changing, the altitude,

0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:59.800
<v Speaker 8>snow is usually expected and it has some costs because

0:21:59.800 --> 0:22:01.960
<v Speaker 8>if you want to ski and the reason not no,

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:04.359
<v Speaker 8>then you have to make the investment. And this is

0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:08.399
<v Speaker 8>clearly a consequence of the higher temperatures we are seeing

0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:09.840
<v Speaker 8>lastly Tomas.

0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:13.120
<v Speaker 2>So what do you expect in terms of the economic

0:22:13.280 --> 0:22:19.159
<v Speaker 2>impact of the games. There's also been this idea of sustainability.

0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.960
<v Speaker 2>How do you make the Olympics every four years, whether

0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:25.479
<v Speaker 2>it's frankly winter all summer, a bit more sustainable. You've

0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:28.080
<v Speaker 2>sort of talked about that with the reuse or the

0:22:28.240 --> 0:22:31.960
<v Speaker 2>using of current venues, but the economic impacts, what do

0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:32.479
<v Speaker 2>you think?

0:22:33.440 --> 0:22:36.719
<v Speaker 8>So one of the main aspects of these Olympic Games,

0:22:37.200 --> 0:22:42.920
<v Speaker 8>this winter edition is that to avoid building new venues

0:22:43.040 --> 0:22:46.240
<v Speaker 8>just for the Olympics that you won't be used anymore.

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:51.600
<v Speaker 8>That's why the games will be held in almost ten

0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:56.639
<v Speaker 8>different locations where you already had the infrastructure ready in Italy.

0:22:56.680 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 8>We headed the Olympics, the Winter Olympics in two thousand

0:22:59.119 --> 0:23:03.080
<v Speaker 8>and six in a Turin and the Piedmont region, and

0:23:03.119 --> 0:23:06.320
<v Speaker 8>there are some venues, especially one for the bob was

0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:11.280
<v Speaker 8>not being used since those Olympics. So the plan has

0:23:11.359 --> 0:23:14.480
<v Speaker 8>been since the beginning to avoid this reason. That's why

0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 8>you're going to have the games in very different locations,

0:23:17.520 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 8>so the cost will go down, and there is also

0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:22.640
<v Speaker 8>a matter of sustainability. The impact of the games. We're

0:23:22.640 --> 0:23:26.679
<v Speaker 8>talking about five billion euros revenue and investment for the Games.

0:23:26.760 --> 0:23:31.040
<v Speaker 8>The impact in this country is that essentially the Games

0:23:31.320 --> 0:23:35.720
<v Speaker 8>were used to create new infrastructure, for example, road infrastructure

0:23:35.760 --> 0:23:38.479
<v Speaker 8>to go to Cortinada and pets. A couple of new

0:23:38.520 --> 0:23:41.080
<v Speaker 8>chunnels were just in agreat a few days before the

0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:46.080
<v Speaker 8>Olympics are starting. So it's a way somehow to boost

0:23:46.119 --> 0:23:48.760
<v Speaker 8>infrastructure in Italy, which is one of the main issues

0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 8>of the country.

0:23:50.840 --> 0:23:55.119
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, absolutely great. Britain sending fifty three athletes the United

0:23:55.160 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 2>States more than two hundred. Italy has actually got close

0:23:58.160 --> 0:24:00.000
<v Speaker 2>to two hundred athletes are going to be going there.

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:02.800
<v Speaker 2>But as you say, tourism numbers will be something that

0:24:02.840 --> 0:24:06.639
<v Speaker 2>will be watched closely. It's a huge platform, isn't it

0:24:06.680 --> 0:24:09.040
<v Speaker 2>for Italy. Tomaso, thank you so much for being with

0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:13.320
<v Speaker 2>me being interesting few weeks. Thank you, Jow Bloomberg's Milan

0:24:13.359 --> 0:24:16.960
<v Speaker 2>Buia chief Tamaso Ebhart, and we'll be bringing you any

0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 2>interesting news stories from the Olympics sixth of February to

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:23.479
<v Speaker 2>the twenty second of February, of course, in the coming

0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:26.479
<v Speaker 2>few days. I'm Caroline Hepka here in London. You can

0:24:26.520 --> 0:24:29.560
<v Speaker 2>catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You at

0:24:29.600 --> 0:24:32.320
<v Speaker 2>beginning at six am in London. That's one am on

0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:32.960
<v Speaker 2>Wall Street.

0:24:33.080 --> 0:24:36.840
<v Speaker 1>Nathan, Thanks Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend,

0:24:36.880 --> 0:24:39.639
<v Speaker 1>we'll look to Japan, where a general election is set

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:43.800
<v Speaker 1>for February eighth. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg.

0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:57.440
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg day Break weekend. Our glob will look

0:24:57.480 --> 0:25:00.359
<v Speaker 1>ahead at the top stories for investors in the coming week.

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. We go to Japan next,

0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:06.760
<v Speaker 1>where a general election is set for February eighth. Prime

0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Minister Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party is likely to increase seats

0:25:10.800 --> 0:25:13.399
<v Speaker 1>and gain a majority in the lower House. For a

0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 1>look at what the outcome could mean for the Japanese economy.

0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:18.680
<v Speaker 1>Let's go to Bloomberg's Doug Krisner, host of the Daybreak

0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:20.680
<v Speaker 1>Asia podcast Nathan.

0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:25.040
<v Speaker 3>In late January, Japanese Prime Minister take Ichi dissolved parliament

0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 3>and called for a lower house election. It is now

0:25:28.160 --> 0:25:31.720
<v Speaker 3>set for February eighth. Now, markets have already expressed a

0:25:31.760 --> 0:25:34.560
<v Speaker 3>bit of unease. To help us understand what's at play,

0:25:34.880 --> 0:25:37.399
<v Speaker 3>let's bring in Bloomberg's Paul Jackson. Paul as a member

0:25:37.440 --> 0:25:40.240
<v Speaker 3>of the Eco gov team looking at Japan in South Korea.

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:42.520
<v Speaker 3>Thank you for being here. Can we begin with a

0:25:42.560 --> 0:25:46.200
<v Speaker 3>backstory on how we got here and why take Ichi

0:25:46.280 --> 0:25:47.399
<v Speaker 3>called for this snap election.

0:25:48.280 --> 0:25:51.960
<v Speaker 9>The ruling party in Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party, has

0:25:52.000 --> 0:25:56.160
<v Speaker 9>been struggling to hold on to power in recent elections.

0:25:56.680 --> 0:26:01.200
<v Speaker 9>Votess are very unhappy about inflation. It's the first time

0:26:01.240 --> 0:26:04.800
<v Speaker 9>they've been experiencing inflation in a generation. It's putting a

0:26:04.800 --> 0:26:09.119
<v Speaker 9>lot of pressure on households and they're wanting the government

0:26:09.200 --> 0:26:12.199
<v Speaker 9>to kind of take control of this. Also, we have

0:26:12.280 --> 0:26:18.320
<v Speaker 9>a country that's surrounded in Asia by various security concerns,

0:26:18.720 --> 0:26:22.360
<v Speaker 9>and since she became prime minister just three months ago,

0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:26.080
<v Speaker 9>she's been riding high in the opinion polls. Now you

0:26:26.119 --> 0:26:28.359
<v Speaker 9>could think it's a bit cheeky to go straight to

0:26:28.400 --> 0:26:33.719
<v Speaker 9>the electorate when less than a quarter through your leadership,

0:26:34.000 --> 0:26:38.080
<v Speaker 9>but she's clearly trying to take advantage of those high

0:26:38.080 --> 0:26:42.160
<v Speaker 9>opinion poll ratings and the idea that look, I am

0:26:42.200 --> 0:26:46.439
<v Speaker 9>a leader with identity. I can be more assertive as

0:26:46.480 --> 0:26:50.000
<v Speaker 9>a leader in Japan, and I can make Japan more assertive,

0:26:50.080 --> 0:26:54.879
<v Speaker 9>give more identity to Japan, and really Takeichi is gambling

0:26:55.320 --> 0:26:59.000
<v Speaker 9>on this personal appeal to the electorate in the style

0:26:59.080 --> 0:27:04.600
<v Speaker 9>of formerly like Shinzo Abbe and Junicio Koizumi, to appeal

0:27:04.720 --> 0:27:09.000
<v Speaker 9>directly to the electric rather than through the party and

0:27:09.119 --> 0:27:13.280
<v Speaker 9>get people to vote for her. And she's put her

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:17.159
<v Speaker 9>career on the line because imagine if she doesn't extend

0:27:17.640 --> 0:27:19.919
<v Speaker 9>a razor thin majority that she's got at the moment.

0:27:20.240 --> 0:27:23.679
<v Speaker 9>I mean, she's she's literally one seat majority at the

0:27:23.680 --> 0:27:27.000
<v Speaker 9>moment on two three three in the more powerful lower house,

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:30.520
<v Speaker 9>and she said that the goal is to extend that majority,

0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:33.560
<v Speaker 9>and if she doesn't, then she's likely to step down.

0:27:33.640 --> 0:27:37.880
<v Speaker 3>So among her objectives you mentioned how inflation is affecting

0:27:37.920 --> 0:27:41.639
<v Speaker 3>the average consumer in Japan. She has proposed a tax

0:27:41.720 --> 0:27:43.920
<v Speaker 3>cut on food. Is that right? Is that a part

0:27:43.920 --> 0:27:44.719
<v Speaker 3>of the strategy?

0:27:45.400 --> 0:27:47.439
<v Speaker 9>That is a part of the strategy. And the ruling

0:27:47.560 --> 0:27:52.040
<v Speaker 9>party has been very reluctant to go down this path

0:27:52.240 --> 0:27:55.960
<v Speaker 9>in previous elections, even though pretty much all the opposition

0:27:56.119 --> 0:27:59.919
<v Speaker 9>parties have been calling for this or something similar related

0:27:59.880 --> 0:28:04.280
<v Speaker 9>to the sales tax. Instead, she's embracing it and saying no, no,

0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:07.000
<v Speaker 9>let's do this. We'll do it temporarily, We'll do it

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:09.640
<v Speaker 9>for two years, and it's to reduce an eight percent

0:28:09.720 --> 0:28:13.119
<v Speaker 9>tax on food down to zero during that time. Now

0:28:13.280 --> 0:28:15.879
<v Speaker 9>that sounds okay so far. There's going to be a

0:28:15.880 --> 0:28:18.719
<v Speaker 9>loss of revenue. This is not on the scale of

0:28:18.760 --> 0:28:21.800
<v Speaker 9>some kind of like the former UK Prime Minister Liz Trust.

0:28:22.200 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 9>It's not that kind of scale of loss of revenue

0:28:25.680 --> 0:28:28.399
<v Speaker 9>or tax breaks, but it is a significant amount of

0:28:28.400 --> 0:28:30.159
<v Speaker 9>It's five trillion. How are you going to pay for that?

0:28:30.440 --> 0:28:30.640
<v Speaker 6>Now?

0:28:30.680 --> 0:28:33.680
<v Speaker 9>The problem is for two years that doesn't sound too bad.

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:38.600
<v Speaker 9>But can you then politically raise or return the tax

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:42.320
<v Speaker 9>back to eight percent? Now that's something policymakers have had

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:44.840
<v Speaker 9>difficulty doing in the past, and I think that's why

0:28:44.920 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 9>markets have been on edge about the outcome of this.

0:28:48.360 --> 0:28:50.920
<v Speaker 3>Election, So you alluded to a little bit of the

0:28:51.080 --> 0:28:54.360
<v Speaker 3>geopolitical tension in the neighborhood. Right now, I'm thinking of

0:28:54.400 --> 0:29:00.800
<v Speaker 3>Takiichi's comments regarding Taiwan and how that offended Beijing. When

0:29:00.800 --> 0:29:03.760
<v Speaker 3>it comes to the issue of military spending, I know

0:29:03.840 --> 0:29:07.400
<v Speaker 3>that Japan has a passivist constitution. Is this something that

0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:09.960
<v Speaker 3>we should look for that there may be a little

0:29:09.960 --> 0:29:12.160
<v Speaker 3>bit more money allocated to defense.

0:29:12.640 --> 0:29:17.240
<v Speaker 9>I think it's certain that Takeichi, she wins, will continue

0:29:17.280 --> 0:29:20.800
<v Speaker 9>to ramp up defense spending in Japan. One of the

0:29:20.840 --> 0:29:24.120
<v Speaker 9>first things she did when she became Prime Minister was

0:29:24.160 --> 0:29:28.120
<v Speaker 9>to bring forward a target of making defense spending a

0:29:28.240 --> 0:29:31.880
<v Speaker 9>two percent of annual GDP. Now that figure is based

0:29:31.880 --> 0:29:34.800
<v Speaker 9>on twenty twenty two GDP, so it's a little bit

0:29:34.800 --> 0:29:37.240
<v Speaker 9>out of date, but she brought forward that target by

0:29:37.280 --> 0:29:41.280
<v Speaker 9>two years, so she's already ramped up defense spending and

0:29:41.440 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 9>is essentially promising more. We've just had elbertge Colby in town,

0:29:47.400 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 9>and obviously he's one of the main advocates for US

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:55.720
<v Speaker 9>allies ramping up their spending, and the kind of message

0:29:55.760 --> 0:29:59.280
<v Speaker 9>that Takaichi has been delivering is kind of music to

0:29:59.360 --> 0:30:02.760
<v Speaker 9>the ears to the current US administration. I'd say, what.

0:30:02.800 --> 0:30:07.040
<v Speaker 3>About the issue of immigration and the growing presence in

0:30:07.160 --> 0:30:09.160
<v Speaker 3>Japan of non Japanese.

0:30:09.800 --> 0:30:14.320
<v Speaker 9>Well, we have a record number of foreigners now working

0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:17.680
<v Speaker 9>in Japan. The numbers have gone up again, and this

0:30:17.880 --> 0:30:20.600
<v Speaker 9>is a concern for those pockets of Japan where you

0:30:20.680 --> 0:30:25.800
<v Speaker 9>have large concentration of foreigners working either in manufacturing as

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:30.200
<v Speaker 9>also much wider use of foreign workers in retail as well.

0:30:30.640 --> 0:30:33.800
<v Speaker 9>And for some voters this has put them in a

0:30:33.840 --> 0:30:37.760
<v Speaker 9>position of uncomfortableness. The sudden influx of people from other

0:30:37.840 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 9>countries while they're feeling that their kind of take home

0:30:42.480 --> 0:30:45.400
<v Speaker 9>pay with the inflation, and that the costs of that

0:30:45.600 --> 0:30:49.320
<v Speaker 9>are running the households each month is getting tougher and tougher,

0:30:49.640 --> 0:30:52.560
<v Speaker 9>and yet people are coming in from abroad and getting work.

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 9>So for a certain segment of Japan's population is making

0:30:56.760 --> 0:31:00.600
<v Speaker 9>them feel very uncomfortable and beleaguered and like, hey, wait

0:31:00.640 --> 0:31:02.960
<v Speaker 9>a minute, what's going on. Don't forget We've also got

0:31:03.040 --> 0:31:07.880
<v Speaker 9>forty two million people visiting Japan last year, a record

0:31:08.040 --> 0:31:10.600
<v Speaker 9>number of foreigners entering the country and go to all

0:31:10.640 --> 0:31:13.040
<v Speaker 9>the tourist sites and clogging up some of the main cities.

0:31:13.440 --> 0:31:16.760
<v Speaker 9>For some Japanese, this make them feel really awkward, and

0:31:16.840 --> 0:31:20.240
<v Speaker 9>they've been voting for some other parties, including the far

0:31:20.360 --> 0:31:25.400
<v Speaker 9>right Sanseto on that specific issue. So TAKH has been

0:31:25.440 --> 0:31:29.240
<v Speaker 9>giving some more robust kind of policy views on what

0:31:29.360 --> 0:31:33.880
<v Speaker 9>to do in terms of regulations and rules concerning entry

0:31:34.080 --> 0:31:38.280
<v Speaker 9>and foreigners in Japan and also the key element of

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:41.800
<v Speaker 9>regulations on buying property by foreigners in Japan.

0:31:42.040 --> 0:31:44.680
<v Speaker 3>Is there a robust debate when it comes to how

0:31:44.760 --> 0:31:46.840
<v Speaker 3>tourism can benefit the economy.

0:31:47.480 --> 0:31:50.920
<v Speaker 9>I think that since both the time of Koizumi and Abbe,

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:55.080
<v Speaker 9>the idea that an increase in tourism Japan can help

0:31:55.120 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 9>the economy has been one of the key kind of

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:02.120
<v Speaker 9>elements as a growth, not the main one, but certainly

0:32:02.120 --> 0:32:06.600
<v Speaker 9>a significant one, and we've seen that really escalate in

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:07.560
<v Speaker 9>recent years.

0:32:07.720 --> 0:32:09.680
<v Speaker 3>Paul will leave it there. Thank you so very much

0:32:09.920 --> 0:32:14.000
<v Speaker 3>for helping us preview the election in Japan. Bloomberg's Paul Jackson.

0:32:14.040 --> 0:32:16.200
<v Speaker 3>He is a member of the ECOGUV team looking at

0:32:16.240 --> 0:32:19.480
<v Speaker 3>Japan in South Korea. So the other event on our

0:32:19.560 --> 0:32:22.480
<v Speaker 3>radar for the week ahead is the policy decision for

0:32:22.600 --> 0:32:26.400
<v Speaker 3>the Reserve Bank of Australia. To provide some insights, let's

0:32:26.440 --> 0:32:29.800
<v Speaker 3>bring in Bloomberg's James McIntyre James as an economist for

0:32:29.880 --> 0:32:34.280
<v Speaker 3>Australia and New Zealand at Bloomberg Economics. Thanks for being here.

0:32:34.720 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 3>Can we set the stage by looking at the story

0:32:37.160 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 3>on inflation down Under in the last week, the market's

0:32:40.760 --> 0:32:42.960
<v Speaker 3>got a very hot reading on CPI. Do you think

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:45.400
<v Speaker 3>that's going to impact the thinking of the RBA.

0:32:45.680 --> 0:32:48.680
<v Speaker 10>We've got a very very strong CPI outcome that came

0:32:48.720 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 10>through for the final quarter of twenty twenty five. What's

0:32:53.240 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 10>been happening in Australia is that the Statistics Bureau was finally,

0:32:57.360 --> 0:33:01.280
<v Speaker 10>after many many years of effort, moved to a monthly CPI.

0:33:01.640 --> 0:33:05.000
<v Speaker 10>But we've got a transition going on in this data

0:33:05.040 --> 0:33:08.200
<v Speaker 10>and it's resulting in a lot of very volatility and

0:33:08.240 --> 0:33:10.000
<v Speaker 10>sticky moves. So it's going to be a tough one

0:33:10.240 --> 0:33:13.400
<v Speaker 10>for the RBA to analyze and take on board. But

0:33:13.480 --> 0:33:15.360
<v Speaker 10>what they do if we look at the headline figures

0:33:15.360 --> 0:33:18.400
<v Speaker 10>out of it, especially this trimmed mean measure, which is

0:33:18.800 --> 0:33:21.360
<v Speaker 10>taking out some of the volatility out of the data,

0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:24.560
<v Speaker 10>and it's the measure that the RBA has reinforced that

0:33:24.560 --> 0:33:26.760
<v Speaker 10>they will be looking at the quarterly trimmed mean measure

0:33:26.760 --> 0:33:29.920
<v Speaker 10>for the RBA came in at zero point nine quarter

0:33:29.960 --> 0:33:32.560
<v Speaker 10>on quarter in three point four year on year, and

0:33:32.600 --> 0:33:36.600
<v Speaker 10>that's above the top of the RBA's target band. Two

0:33:36.600 --> 0:33:39.960
<v Speaker 10>to three percent is inflation angling for two and a

0:33:40.000 --> 0:33:43.680
<v Speaker 10>half percent midpoint is what the RBA is targeting, and

0:33:43.720 --> 0:33:46.560
<v Speaker 10>inflation has come in at three point four percent. Instead

0:33:46.560 --> 0:33:50.920
<v Speaker 10>of gradually moving back, it's ticked up. It's resulted in

0:33:50.960 --> 0:33:55.360
<v Speaker 10>market pricing and expectations shifting from maybe the RBA entertaining

0:33:55.360 --> 0:33:58.880
<v Speaker 10>a hike. At this meeting, we're a little bit more cautious,

0:33:59.080 --> 0:34:01.680
<v Speaker 10>but that's really set the scene for what the decision

0:34:01.720 --> 0:34:04.160
<v Speaker 10>is going to be at the RBAS for every meeting.

0:34:04.320 --> 0:34:07.680
<v Speaker 3>So, James, what was driving the increase in inflation in

0:34:07.800 --> 0:34:10.640
<v Speaker 3>terms of the factors here involved? Can you kind of

0:34:10.640 --> 0:34:12.840
<v Speaker 3>pinpoint a couple of the key problem areas.

0:34:13.800 --> 0:34:16.920
<v Speaker 10>One bucket of problem areas within the inflation basket is

0:34:16.920 --> 0:34:22.000
<v Speaker 10>the thing that local Australian economists refer to as administered prices.

0:34:22.480 --> 0:34:23.200
<v Speaker 1>So what is that.

0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:26.719
<v Speaker 10>Well, it's prices within the economy that are influenced by

0:34:26.760 --> 0:34:31.120
<v Speaker 10>government decisions and regulatory dictates and the like, So things

0:34:31.200 --> 0:34:35.759
<v Speaker 10>like electricity prices, school fees, these sorts of things are

0:34:35.800 --> 0:34:39.359
<v Speaker 10>sort of set either quarterly or annually. You know, the

0:34:39.400 --> 0:34:42.360
<v Speaker 10>cost of a posted stamp. They're regulated by the government.

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:44.680
<v Speaker 10>And what we're seeing here is that we're seeing market

0:34:44.719 --> 0:34:48.080
<v Speaker 10>driven inflation, the parts of the inflation basket that are

0:34:48.200 --> 0:34:51.120
<v Speaker 10>a bit more responsive to private decisions and supply and

0:34:51.160 --> 0:34:54.960
<v Speaker 10>demand within the economy that's continuing to edge downward, but

0:34:55.160 --> 0:34:59.000
<v Speaker 10>a lot of these government related or administered prices really

0:34:59.080 --> 0:35:01.760
<v Speaker 10>spiking up. And so what's happened in the third quarter

0:35:02.040 --> 0:35:04.000
<v Speaker 10>and in the fourth quarter is that we've seen a

0:35:04.040 --> 0:35:07.319
<v Speaker 10>bit of a bump. The RBA referred to it as transitory,

0:35:07.400 --> 0:35:09.560
<v Speaker 10>but it's going to test their patients. We've seen a

0:35:09.560 --> 0:35:12.600
<v Speaker 10>bump in electricity prices, We've seen a bump in property rates,

0:35:12.880 --> 0:35:15.200
<v Speaker 10>and a couple of other things that have really pushed

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:17.960
<v Speaker 10>that administraive prices basket way up.

0:35:18.200 --> 0:35:21.439
<v Speaker 3>So if there is now greater risk of perhaps a move,

0:35:21.640 --> 0:35:24.680
<v Speaker 3>maybe not next week, but at some point in the

0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:27.520
<v Speaker 3>near future, that we could see a rate hike from

0:35:27.560 --> 0:35:31.279
<v Speaker 3>the RBA, what might that do to the overall performance

0:35:31.320 --> 0:35:32.640
<v Speaker 3>of the Australian economy.

0:35:33.600 --> 0:35:35.840
<v Speaker 10>Well, if the RBA does decide that they want to

0:35:35.880 --> 0:35:38.760
<v Speaker 10>react to this and take out what could be described

0:35:38.760 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 10>as an insurance hike to make sure that the inflation

0:35:42.320 --> 0:35:45.399
<v Speaker 10>genie does sort of go back into the bottle, because

0:35:45.440 --> 0:35:47.080
<v Speaker 10>it looks like it's poking its head out just a

0:35:47.120 --> 0:35:49.400
<v Speaker 10>tiny bit. What it would mean is it would see

0:35:49.680 --> 0:35:53.759
<v Speaker 10>a renewed, I guess, suppression of the recovery on the

0:35:53.760 --> 0:35:56.520
<v Speaker 10>private sector side of the economy. But what an RBA

0:35:56.640 --> 0:35:58.439
<v Speaker 10>hike would do is it would just put a little

0:35:58.440 --> 0:36:01.080
<v Speaker 10>bit of a wet blanket on that another thing that's

0:36:01.080 --> 0:36:04.399
<v Speaker 10>potentially weighing a bit or dampening the economy. It might

0:36:04.440 --> 0:36:06.400
<v Speaker 10>be one of the reasons the RBA might be a

0:36:06.440 --> 0:36:09.279
<v Speaker 10>little bit circumspect and be prepared to look through what

0:36:09.320 --> 0:36:13.080
<v Speaker 10>it sees as this transitory inflation spike is the currency.

0:36:13.480 --> 0:36:15.799
<v Speaker 10>It's the Aussie dollar has shot up quite a bit

0:36:16.200 --> 0:36:18.400
<v Speaker 10>some of it. You know, there is this big divergence

0:36:18.400 --> 0:36:21.480
<v Speaker 10>between market pricing for the RBA and market pricing for

0:36:21.520 --> 0:36:25.520
<v Speaker 10>the FED, and the currency is responding to that along

0:36:25.640 --> 0:36:30.360
<v Speaker 10>with the general US dollar story underway. Commodity price is

0:36:30.360 --> 0:36:32.760
<v Speaker 10>a little bit firm. Gold price Australia is the largest

0:36:33.040 --> 0:36:36.959
<v Speaker 10>third largest i should say, gold exporter. You know, these

0:36:36.960 --> 0:36:39.759
<v Speaker 10>things are all a bit supportive, whether it's interest rate

0:36:39.760 --> 0:36:43.960
<v Speaker 10>toferential commodity prices or the overall tone within global markets

0:36:43.960 --> 0:36:46.560
<v Speaker 10>when it comes to the US dollar and all of

0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:48.560
<v Speaker 10>that's going to put some you know, a bit of

0:36:48.560 --> 0:36:50.719
<v Speaker 10>a dampener on demand in the economy, but also a

0:36:50.760 --> 0:36:55.120
<v Speaker 10>dampener on inflation imported prices. Australia does import a lot

0:36:55.160 --> 0:36:58.799
<v Speaker 10>of goods. A stronger Australian dollar is going to put

0:36:58.840 --> 0:37:00.960
<v Speaker 10>some downward pressure on those and so it really is

0:37:01.000 --> 0:37:03.400
<v Speaker 10>adding to the story here that this could be something

0:37:03.440 --> 0:37:05.080
<v Speaker 10>that the ABA does look through.

0:37:05.520 --> 0:37:07.879
<v Speaker 3>Okay, James, we'll leave it there. Thank you so very much.

0:37:08.000 --> 0:37:13.160
<v Speaker 3>James McIntyre, economist for Australia and New Zealand for Bloomberg Economics,

0:37:13.320 --> 0:37:15.520
<v Speaker 3>and I'm Doug Chrisner. You can catch us weekdays for

0:37:15.560 --> 0:37:19.640
<v Speaker 3>the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast.

0:37:19.840 --> 0:37:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Nathan, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition

0:37:22.960 --> 0:37:26.120
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at

0:37:26.120 --> 0:37:28.800
<v Speaker 1>five am Wall Street Time for the latest don markets,

0:37:28.800 --> 0:37:31.520
<v Speaker 1>overseas and the news you need to start your day.

0:37:31.800 --> 0:37:35.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us. Top stories and global

0:37:35.040 --> 0:37:38.040
<v Speaker 1>business headlines are coming out right now.