Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea with really really good conversations today. Thank
Speaker 2: you for David Gura, just in from Aspen where he
Speaker 2: was at the Defense Conference, interviewing Robert Gates, Robert Zellick
Speaker 2: and Michael Frohman. The two together, Zellick and Frohman on
Speaker 2: trade is just exquisite. Look for that out at the
Speaker 2: Big Take. It's really really an important interview. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: I'll dub it right now. It's the interview of July
Speaker 2: across all of Bloomberg, Zellick and Frohman with David Gera
Speaker 2: on the Big Take. Our interview at the moment was
Speaker 2: Stuart Kaiser at City Group. I think we're in a bullmarket.
Speaker 2: He writes these really complex pro future forward, lots of
Speaker 2: mumbo jumbo jargon stuff. And I asked him about the quants,
Speaker 2: the guys with a black box.
Speaker 3: On the quant side. These are folks that you know
Speaker 3: are really investing very systematically in box. Some I mean
Speaker 3: they wouldn't tell you they understand the box. You know
Speaker 3: from a distance, we don't. Why are they, you know,
Speaker 3: having some trouble. I would say that the s and
Speaker 3: P five hundred, realized volatility is below ten percent right now,
Speaker 3: so the S and P is not moving very much.
Speaker 3: The factors that are quant my trade style stocks, value stocks,
Speaker 3: grow stocks, those have been incredibly volatile, much more violatile
Speaker 3: than the S and P five hundred itself. So if
Speaker 3: quants are under pressure, it's because the market isn't moving
Speaker 3: very much, but the tools they use are and that
Speaker 3: sort of dislocation can be really tricky for them.
Speaker 2: Start Kaiser and let me pause there and talk about
Speaker 2: the idea. And when I came to Bloomberg got shocked
Speaker 2: by this. Where all economists are the same, They're not.
Speaker 2: I think we sort of understand it. Academic economists people
Speaker 2: like Adam Posen at a think tank, or Ken Rogoff
Speaker 2: up at.
Speaker 4: Harvard, and others.
Speaker 2: Market economists that are very different, like Michael ferole on
Speaker 2: today from JP Morgan on the strategist side, and particularly
Speaker 2: he's strategist.
Speaker 4: Again, there's all different shades. There's twenty eight flavors of
Speaker 4: equity strategy. In Stuart Kaiser is on a trading desk
Speaker 4: with risk in play, wicked short term. It's City Group.
Speaker 4: It's sort of like that TV show. Industry in London
Speaker 4: or even like Billions. It's like sort of like what
Speaker 4: you see Hollywood fake at It's City Group, except with
Speaker 4: Stuart Kaiser it's a real deal. So he's looking at
Speaker 4: incredible short term ideas. Brian Belski is a different flavor.
Speaker 4: It helps at Belski's been incredibly right about a bull market,
Speaker 4: but Brian Belski is looking much more long term, at
Speaker 4: the understanding that people have long term investment and they
Speaker 4: may have short term speculation, which is a trade of
Speaker 4: six months or a year or dare I say long
Speaker 4: term for Belski's maybe an eighteen month view. Here Brian
Speaker 4: Bell's SI of Bemo Capital Markets on the moment at hand.
Speaker 1: Well, because it is emotion it's not based on the facts.
Speaker 1: You want to buy these companies that are masterful in
Speaker 1: their craft, that have amazing management teams, that have great
Speaker 1: cash flow, and have I would say binary decisions made
Speaker 1: about them that everybody agrees on, I e. We're never
Speaker 1: gonna use Search again, which is which is ridiculous and oh,
Speaker 1: by the way, searches up in the quarter. We actually
Speaker 1: double down on Google and we added it to our
Speaker 1: value portfolio because we love to buy broken growth. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: but when the stock was down in April, we put
Speaker 1: it in our value portfolio. Why because it's a broken.
Speaker 4: Growth see Apple of Broken Growth story.
Speaker 1: No, I think Apple is a cash machine. You never
Speaker 1: want to ever bet against the US consumer. And let's
Speaker 1: let's put a semi coal in space and you never
Speaker 1: want to bet against Apple.
Speaker 4: Brian Belski for too short a visit.
Speaker 2: We'll get him in for a much, much longer visit
Speaker 2: here in the coming days and weeks. I'll be honest, folks,
Speaker 2: Like the banks, I was interested tech was like, yeah, okay,
Speaker 2: big deal. After what I saw from Google yesterday, I
Speaker 2: am really to what we're going to see in technology
Speaker 2: in the coming ten days. With the leadership of Caroline
Speaker 2: Hyde and Ed Ludlow on Bloomberg Technology, it's a podcast
Speaker 2: across the nation on Apple, on Spotify, and on YouTube podcasts.
Speaker 2: It's single best idea.