1 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: One day the state was there, and the next it wasn't. 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: The cops and soldiers those who were left all pulled 3 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: out in the night. Even now, months later, you weren't 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: really sure why they left. The rumor mill called it 5 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: a strategic retreat, brought on by heavy losses from insurgent 6 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: attacks in the hills and the fighting in the capital. 7 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: For whatever reason, the government considered your city dispensable. You 8 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: heard their trucks that night, armored vehicles and tanks rolling 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: out towards the highway. Most of the police evacuated with 10 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: their families, scared of reprisals. You assume they'll be rehomed 11 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,879 Speaker 1: somewhere in regime controlled territory. The first morning after the 12 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 1: government left was weird and kind of scary. You and 13 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: your surviving neighbors all gathered together on the roof of 14 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: your building to see if anything was burning down. You 15 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 1: expected looting, mass of violence, some form of chaos. But 16 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: that first day was quiet, and so was the second 17 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: day and the third. It wasn't until the fourth day 18 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 1: that representatives from the separatist side of town made it 19 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: to your neighborhood. Some of them looked like the private military. Contrast, 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: actors that the government had hired before, burly bearded dudes 21 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: with huge black rifles and tattooed arms, but most of 22 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: them just looked like regular civilians. They brought food with them, 23 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: the first fresh produce you'd seen in months. Someone told 24 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: you they'd converted a couple of the old bank buildings 25 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: downtown into urban farms. You also heard they'd struck a 26 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 1: deal with some of the separatists out in the country, 27 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,199 Speaker 1: sending them manufactured drone parts in exchange for eggs and potatoes. 28 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,720 Speaker 1: The food did a lot to buy your goodwill, but 29 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 1: it came with strings attached. You were told, rather matter 30 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: of factly that your neighborhood was now part of their 31 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: municipal alliance, and you'd be expected to take part in 32 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: a weekly local council. You figured it'd be boring as hell, 33 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 1: like a forced PTA meeting, but now a few weeks in, 34 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: you kind of like it. Most of you had been 35 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: technically unemployed for a while, but now everyone had something 36 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 1: to do, preparing food, keeping the lights on, scavenging equipment 37 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: from abandoned office buildings. For the first time since the 38 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,639 Speaker 1: fighting started, some semblance of normal life returned. The power 39 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: was more regular. Some of the cafes and restaurants reopened. 40 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: A few people with projectors set up regular movie and 41 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: TV nits. Now folks gather to watch old episodes of 42 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: the Office or Marvel movies, rather than doing it alone 43 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: in their apartments. There's less food than there was before 44 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: the war, of course, but no one's starving anymore. Coffee 45 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: is still a distant memory, but a few of your 46 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: neighbors busted into an old energy drink factory and liberated 47 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 1: several crates of the stuff, so at least you have 48 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: caffeine again, And right as you start to feel optimistic 49 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: about the world, once more, mortars start landing just a 50 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 1: few blocks from your door. You and your neighbors take 51 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: to the rooftops again. As the angry chatter of gunfire 52 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: pops up once more, you're able to spot the culprits, 53 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 1: not the government forces as you'd expected. It appears to 54 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: be another militia driving up armored pickup trucks and captured 55 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,119 Speaker 1: police vehicles. You don't know who they are, but they're 56 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 1: pushing into your town from the suburbs. With your neighbor's telescope, 57 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: you could just barely make out the logo and blastomed 58 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:49,119 Speaker 1: on their vehicles, a single fiery cross war as health. 59 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: That's obvious, right. We've all seen horrifying videos of air 60 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: strikes and street to street fighting in places like Syria, 61 00:02:55,800 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: Leveled cities and hollow wide refugees. It's undeniably terrible. Here's 62 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: the thing, though, War doesn't always make everything worse, or 63 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: at least it doesn't make everything worse for everybody. Do 64 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: you struggle with depression, anxiety, overwhelming and almost crippling self loading, 65 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: there is a shockingly good chance that war might actually 66 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 1: come as a relief. In the years before World War Two, 67 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: military planners all around the world realized that the bombing 68 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: of cities by airplanes was going to be a major 69 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: feature of the next war. As the British government watched 70 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: Nazi Germany rise and rise and boil over its borders 71 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,119 Speaker 1: into Western Europe, they knew the Luftwaffa would soon fly 72 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: over their shores, and that meant that war was coming 73 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 1: to London. Aside from a few blimp attacks in the 74 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: last war, no modern state had ever dealt with the 75 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: problem of a dense civilian population being suddenly exposed to 76 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: the inferno of total war. Most planners instantly assumed it 77 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 1: would be a nightmarish disaster. People would be driven instantly 78 00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 1: mad from the bombing. They expected four million people at 79 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: least would suffer from complete psychiatric breakdown in the face 80 00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: of the horrors of war. Instead, literally the opposite happened. 81 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: Roughly two Londoners per week showed up in hospitals with 82 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: cases of bomb neuroses. The people they had worried about 83 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 1: the most, the chronically ill, and the fragile often reported 84 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: feeling better than ever. According to Sebastian Younger's Tribe quote, 85 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 1: psychiatrists watched and puzzlement as long standing patients saw their 86 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: symptoms subside during the period of intense air raids. Voluntary 87 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 1: admissions to psychiatric wards noticeably declined, and even epileptics reported 88 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: having fewer seizures. Chronic neurotics of peacetime now drive ambulances, 89 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,559 Speaker 1: one doctor remarked. Another ventured to suggest that some people 90 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 1: actually did better during wartime. The positive effects of war 91 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: on mental health were first noticed by the great sociologist 92 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: Emil Durkheim, who found that when European countries went to war, 93 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 1: suicide rates dropped. Psychiatric wards in Paris were strangely empty 94 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: during both World Wars, and that remained true even as 95 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: the German army rolled into the city. In nineteen forty. 96 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: Researchers documented a similar phenomenon during the Civil Wars in Spain, Algeria, Lebanon, 97 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 1: and Northern Ireland. In Germany, where millions of teachers, in 98 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: patricians and bakers and waitresses and children suddenly found themselves 99 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: subjected to the burning hell of daily Allied bombardment, the 100 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: same phenomenon rang true. Normal people with no military experience 101 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: held up incredibly well under the horrors of conflict. Charles fitz, 102 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: a captain with the United States Army Air Corps, was 103 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: posted in England during the war. He saw a lot 104 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: of this first hand, and it inspired him to put 105 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: together a massive study after the war. By nineteen fifty nine, 106 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 1: fits in a team of n o RC researchers had 107 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:30,920 Speaker 1: collected testimonies for more than nine thousand people and studied 108 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:32,799 Speaker 1: every piece of data they could find on the mental 109 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:36,279 Speaker 1: health impacts of other large scale disasters. He used this 110 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 1: data to put together a paper in nineteen sixty one, 111 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: Disasters and Mental Health Therapeutic Principles drawn from disaster research. 112 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: It opened with the line why do large scale disasters 113 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,920 Speaker 1: produce such mentally healthy conditions? Fits His conclusions, all rooted 114 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: in hard data and impeccable science, found that disasters created 115 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: what he called a community of sufferers. Rather than being 116 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 1: made worse by the rigors of war, the violence and 117 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 1: starvation and suffer ring people banded together with their neighbors 118 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: to find food, dig survivors from rubble, and make sure 119 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: everyone had a place to sleep at night. He concluded, 120 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,040 Speaker 1: quote as social animals, people perhaps come closer to fulfilling 121 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: their basic human needs and the aftermath of a disaster 122 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: than at any other time, because they develop a form 123 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 1: of life highly compatible with these needs. This conception of 124 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: the fulfillment of the utopian prototypic image of society helps 125 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 1: to explain many otherwise inexplicable phenomena of disaster behavior. Time 126 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 1: and time again over the decades, sociologists and disaster researchers 127 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: have come to the same conclusions as Charles fitz In 128 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: his book Tribe, which I can't recommend enough. Sebastian Younger 129 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: quotes from a nineteen seventy nine paper by an Irish 130 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: psychologist named Lands. He found that during the Belfast riots 131 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,160 Speaker 1: in nineteen sixty nine and seventy suicide rates fell by 132 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: and the paper Lions published on his research. He noted, quote, 133 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: when people are actively engaged in a cause, their lives 134 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 1: have more meaning with resulting improvement in mental health. It 135 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 1: would be irresponsible to suggest violence as a means of 136 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: improving mental health, but the Belfast findings suggest that people 137 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: will feel better psychologically if they have more involvement in 138 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: their community. Now, this is something you have to talk 139 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: carefully about. The last thing I want to do is 140 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: suggest second Civil War as treatment for all of our 141 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: ongoing mental health issues. But there is a good chance 142 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 1: that many people would find life during that conflict to 143 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: be more meaningful than their current day to day existence. 144 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: On May tenth, two thousand eighteen, NBC published an article 145 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: based on Blue Cross Blue Shield data on the reach 146 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: of major depression nationwide. The title pretty accurately sums up 147 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: the information major depression on their rise among everyone. NBC 148 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: interviewed doctor Laurel Williams, chief of psychiatry at Texas Children's Hospital. 149 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: Williams explained, quote, many people are worried about how busy 150 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: they are. There's a lack of community there's the amount 151 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: of time that we spend in front of screens and 152 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: not in front of other people. If you don't have 153 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: a community to reach out to, then your hopelessness doesn't 154 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: have any place to go. Now. I've asked you all 155 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: to imagine quite a lot over the course of this podcast, 156 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: but I don't think it will be a struggle for 157 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: many of you to imagine working at a job you 158 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: don't really love, living alone in a small apartment and 159 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: feeling disconnected from many of the people around you. If 160 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: you've ever gone a few weeks without seeing your friends 161 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: or family socially because you just had so much ship 162 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: to do, you get how easily that can contribute to depression. 163 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: If that's your life, too much time alone at work, 164 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: in a pervasive feeling that an awful lot of what 165 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: you do doesn't matter, well, then our hypothetical civil war 166 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,800 Speaker 1: might present you with an opportunity for some meaning. You 167 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: don't have to be a fanatic on one side or 168 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: the other out of strong political beliefs you're willing to 169 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: die for and Kiev, the Maidan protest camp was kept 170 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 1: alive by a network of activists who provided food, medical supplies, 171 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: and other perishables to the activists in the camp. I've 172 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: mentioned this before, but I'd like you to imagine what 173 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: it would feel like to be involved in something like that. 174 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: You wouldn't need to support one side or the other 175 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: in the civil war. You just need to have friends 176 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: over there, hungry and scared and fighting against the state 177 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:50,959 Speaker 1: that feels less worth supporting every single day. Sometimes it 178 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 1: would be terrifying, but it might be fun too. My 179 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: friend Alexander, a young Ukrainian man whose prior relevant experience 180 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: included volunteering to help set up burning Man at night 181 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: after night delivering hot soup to activists manning barricades meant 182 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 1: to block police from directly assaulting the main camp. He 183 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 1: described it as immensely satisfying work, a clear and moral 184 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:11,479 Speaker 1: choice he could make in the midst of a confusing 185 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: and frightening conflict. Alexander didn't set out to be a revolutionary, 186 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: but on one of those visits out to provide soup 187 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: to the troops, he wound up fighting against a line 188 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 1: of heavily armored riot police. A decision to cook soup 189 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: for his hungry friends led to him taking up arms 190 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: against the state and ultimately helping to overthrow his nation's 191 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: head of state. We don't imagine finding yourself gradually, through 192 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 1: bits and pieces of minor activism, drawn into an armed 193 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: and fortified camp of activists resisting the government. You may 194 00:09:49,240 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: believe wholeheartedly in their demands, or you might just think 195 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,559 Speaker 1: the violence the police and soldiers have deployed against protesters 196 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 1: is unconscionable. Regardless of why you'd do it, you probably 197 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: would find it more fulfilling than another day at the office. 198 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: But what if you're further from the action, in a 199 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: town or city that doesn't wind up an open rebellion 200 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: against the state. For a while, your life might not change, 201 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: at least not for the better. Food would grow more expensive, 202 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: of course, law enforcement would become more authoritarian. But if 203 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,120 Speaker 1: this thing keeps going, if separatist succeed in choking the 204 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: food supply, if the economy collapses, if the state is 205 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 1: pushed to the brink, you might actually see the government 206 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: retreat from your life. There are only so many cops 207 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: and soldiers, and only so much money in the government 208 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 1: store box. After two or three years of escalating conflict, 209 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: perhaps even less, you and your neighbors might find yourselves 210 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: sitting outside the state's protection. That probably sounds terrifying to you. 211 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 1: During the Blitz, Londoners still had the government functioning, trying 212 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: its best to protect them. What would happen without that? 213 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: We have relatively few examples that might tell us how 214 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: a large group of modern day Americans would react to 215 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 1: the temporary collapse of organized government. One of the few 216 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,959 Speaker 1: clear case studies would have to be Hurricane Katrina. If 217 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,040 Speaker 1: you just followed the mainstream news during that whole mess, 218 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: you probably know it wasn't exactly the state's finest hour. 219 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: Most reports at the time described the city after the 220 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: hurricane as a lawless waste land. On September one, two five, 221 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: the Associated Press wrote, quote, storm victims were raped and beaten, 222 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: fights and fires broke out, corpses lay out in the open, 223 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: and rescue helicopters and law enforcement officers were shot at. 224 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: As flooded out New Orleans descended into anarchy. Today, news 225 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 1: anchors described hotels is overrun with gangs. New Orleans police 226 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: chief at a compass, stood before the cameras and told 227 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: lurid stories of desperate gunfights between overwhelmed cops, dangerous gangsters, 228 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: and mad snipers. For a very long time, it was 229 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: taken as a given that Hurricane Katrina had brought anarchy 230 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 1: in its wake, and actually that is sort of true, 231 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: But the reality of the situation is that anarchy isn't 232 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: always terrible. Louisiana National Guard Colonel Thomas Barron showed up 233 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: at the Superdome five days after Katrina made landfall. He'd 234 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: been primed by dozens of horrifying headlines to expect piles 235 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: and piles of corpses. His convoy included a refrigerated eighteen 236 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: wheeler and three doctors to work as a makeshift Morgan 237 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: process the dead. He arrived expecting at least two hundred bodies. 238 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 1: He found six. Four had died of natural causes, one 239 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: from an overdose and the other from a suicide. No 240 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: one had been killed inside the Superdome. There was very 241 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,079 Speaker 1: little evidence of any violence there at all. I found 242 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: this in a great rite up by NOLA dot com. 243 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: They interviewed a National Guard sergeant who commented on the 244 00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 1: stories of nightmarish violence in the wake of Katrina. Quote, 245 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:25,480 Speaker 1: I think it is bullshit. Don't get me wrong. Bad 246 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: things happened, but I didn't see any killing and raping 247 00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: and cutting of throats or anything of the people in 248 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 1: the dome were very well behaved. Orleans Parish d a 249 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: Eddie Jordan confirmed four murders in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. 250 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: This meant that nightmarish week was no more violent than 251 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: normal week in the city. Those stories the police chief 252 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,319 Speaker 1: told about cops getting into multiple gunfights with gangsters that 253 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: never happened either. Quote. Security was non existent at the 254 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 1: convention Center, which was never designated as a shelter. Authorities 255 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: provided no food, water, or medical care until troops secured 256 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: the building a Friday after the storm. While the convention 257 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: Center saw plenty of mischief, including massive loot in an 258 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: isolated gunfire, and many inside coward and fear, the hordes 259 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 1: of evacuees, for the most part, did not resort to 260 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:08,320 Speaker 1: violence as legend has it. There was quite a lot 261 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: of looting, of course, both of food and alcohol, but 262 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: Jimmy four, one of the few government employees who stayed 263 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: in the Superdome, did not see a single violent crime committed. 264 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: There was one report of a man trying to sexually 265 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: assault a young girl one report, but he was beaten 266 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: up by civilians and turned into the police. There were 267 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: a number of gangsters at the Superdome, of course, but 268 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:29,800 Speaker 1: according to Major David Baldwin, they tended to help rather 269 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: than hinder the rescue work. He noted that once the 270 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: convoy arrived and started treating people and handing out supplies, quote, 271 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: some of these guys look like thugs with pants hanging 272 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: down around their asses, but they were working their asses off, 273 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 1: grabbing litters, and running with people to the New Orleans Arena. 274 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: That reality is very much out of line with what 275 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:48,440 Speaker 1: the mainstream media might lead you to expect. But the 276 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 1: simple fact of the matter is that most people in 277 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: most situations want things to be nice and reasonable. Even 278 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 1: when resources are strained, when danger lurks at every corner, 279 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: and when all familiar forms of order collapse, the majority 280 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: of human beings are more likely to work together than 281 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: turn into shrieking, violent madmen raping their way through post 282 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 1: apocalyptic ruins. There is an extraordinary amount of data on 283 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: this phenomenon. I found a study published by the International 284 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: Institute for Environment and Development back in two thousand seventeen. 285 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 1: It gathered data from disasters all around the world and 286 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: showed Fitz's findings have not gotten any less relevant over 287 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: the years. Most current research suggests that if you find 288 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: yourself in the wake of a calamity, spontaneously organized civilian 289 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: groups won't be more likely to help you out than 290 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: the state, local, or federal government. Here's a quote from 291 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: that two thousand seventeen report quote. In Kathmandu, after the 292 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: April two thousand fifteen earthquake, local residents were the first responders, 293 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 1: rescuing family members and neighbors from collapsed buildings, erecting temporary 294 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: tent shelters for those who had lost their homes, providing 295 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: food to survivors, distributing relief packages when these arrived, and 296 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: raising funds online. In the first days after the nineteen 297 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: Marmor earthquake in Turkey, which killed more than seventeen thousand 298 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: people and caused widespread damage and disruption, state and other 299 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: official agencies were initially unable to deliver or core innate 300 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 1: humanitarian assistance. Relief and rescue activities were carried out mainly 301 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 1: by neighbors, relatives, spontaneously formed volunteer groups, and some NGOs. 302 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: In one survey, thirty four percent of earthquake victims interviewed 303 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: said that they received most help immediately after the earthquake 304 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: from family members and neighbors, as well as through their 305 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: own efforts. Only ten point three percent mentioned help from 306 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 1: state authorities. There is also evidence of such emergent activity 307 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: in several countries after the two thousand four Indian Ocean tsunami, 308 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 1: Surveys in Indonesia and Sri Lanka showed the predominant influence 309 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: of private citizens and local communities and relief assistants such 310 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 1: as rescue, burying of the dead, and provision of food, water, 311 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: and clothing. In Sri Lanka and Thailand, almost all life 312 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: saving and immediate relief activity in the first one two 313 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: days after the tsunami was by local people from neighboring areas. Now. 314 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: This report also noted that while media tends to focus 315 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: on panic and looting in the wake of disasters, and 316 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: emergency planners generally assumed that's how folks will react, that 317 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 1: kind of behavior, while not unknown, is not typical. Quote 318 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: groups and individuals typically become more unified, cohesive, and ultru 319 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: whist dick in such events. It is also a myth 320 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: that affected communities essentially are passive in disasters, waiting for 321 00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: help from emergency organizations and are unwilling to become involved 322 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 1: in response work. Disasters put enormous strain on societies and organizations, 323 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: but they also stimulate civilians to halt their everyday activities 324 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: and take on new roles and responsibilities in relief and recovery. 325 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: The desire to help any crisis is very strong. It 326 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: is often a compelling need to do something. When do 327 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: you think you'd feel compelled to do something? The answer 328 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 1: to that question is different for everyone listening. Some of 329 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: you would take to the streets as soon as the 330 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: protests started. Others would be like my friend Alexander, sympathetic 331 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: to one side or the other at the beginning, but 332 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: only gradually dragged from providing moral support to actively resisting 333 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: the state. It's hard to predict when any given individual 334 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: will do when chaos and war up into the routines 335 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: of daily life. I'm going to guess that most of 336 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,160 Speaker 1: you would not choose to take up arms, one way 337 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 1: or the other. Most people in most countries during most 338 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: civil wars do not take it upon themselves to fight, 339 00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: But past a certain point, there would be no staying 340 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 1: truly neutral either, especially if you happen to reside in 341 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,120 Speaker 1: a part of the country where government control collapsed and 342 00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: or a rebel group took control. Millions of Syrians have 343 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: already found themselves in that exact situation. Some group, like 344 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: the Free Syrian Army or job At al Nusra would 345 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 1: wind up in control of their neighborhood. Generally, constellations of 346 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 1: loosely allied and often conflicting groups wound up running a 347 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,240 Speaker 1: city or a province, roughly equivalent to a state. Being 348 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 1: militant groups, the rebels sort of had their hands full 349 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: fighting against their dictator and against each other. In many 350 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: parts of Syria, this left the responsibility for governing in 351 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 1: the hands of the area's civilians. Enter the local councils 352 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 1: next time. Going to quote from an International Review article 353 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 1: on this phenomenon, quote, individuals have sought to provide basic 354 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 1: needs and stability to their communities by creating local councils. 355 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 1: Local councils mostly exist in rural towns, but have also 356 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: formed around neighborhoods, in cities and at the governorate level. 357 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: Estimates for the number of local councils in Syria vary 358 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 1: from four hundred sixteen in late two thousand fifteen to 359 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: four d twenty seven in early two thousand sixteen to 360 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: four hundred four following the fall of Aleppo. According to 361 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: a two thousand sixteen survey by the Omran Center for 362 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 1: Strategic Studies of a hundred and five local councils and 363 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 1: opposition held territory, fifty seven percent of local councils were 364 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 1: formed through consensus and thirty eight percent were formed through elections, 365 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 1: with lack of security and legal expertise cited as the 366 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: major reasons why more elections were not held. This claim 367 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: is supported by other surveys as well. The majority of 368 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: these councils were created in two thousand, twelve and thirteen 369 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 1: and go through restructuring on average once a year now. 370 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,959 Speaker 1: These local councils handled most of the day to day 371 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: work necessary for keeping an area livable. Big of US 372 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: an idea of how American communities might handle the retreat 373 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: of the state. In some cases, councils and their work 374 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 1: were funded by wealthy expats and foreign aid organizations. In 375 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 1: other areas, councils became dominated or heavily influenced by elected 376 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: officials who represented various rebel groups, from extremest Islamist organizations 377 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: like r R al Sham to more secular groups like 378 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: the f s A. Obviously Islamist Shura councils aren't the 379 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: sort of thing we'd likely see in the United States, 380 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,120 Speaker 1: but in many communities, the most powerful non governmental organizations 381 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: are churches. In urban areas, churches are often own the largest, 382 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 1: most solid legal real estate in the area. They also 383 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: tend to be the sort of buildings that military forces 384 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 1: and extremists would be less likely to target from an 385 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: optics point of view. On the benevolent end of things, 386 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: it's not hard to imagine many churches and local religious 387 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: organizations taking the responsibility for helping to feed and provide 388 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: basic medical care to people in their area of influence. 389 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: I can picture churches, particularly large networks of cash rich churches, 390 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: as able to provide potential islands of sanity and compassion 391 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,639 Speaker 1: through the food shortages, electrical outages, and people hit are 392 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 1: made homeless in the crossfire. But I can also picture 393 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: things getting darker in some parts of the country we don't. 394 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 1: Christian dominionists believe that the entire nation should be run 395 00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: by and according to the rules of a very specific 396 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: subset of Christian Pentecostalism. Raphael Cruz, father of Ted Cruz, 397 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: is one prominent American dominionist, according to a political research 398 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: Associal Each report on the dominionist movement. Quote during a 399 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 1: sermon at the New Beginnings Church in Bedford, Texas in 400 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: two thousand twelve, Rafael had described his son senate campaign 401 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:11,200 Speaker 1: as the fulfillment of biblical prophecy that God would anoint 402 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,960 Speaker 1: Christian kings to preside over an in time transfer of 403 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: wealth from the wicked to the righteous. According to his father, 404 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: New Beginnings pastor Larry hutch Ted Cruz is anointed by 405 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: God to help Christians and their efforts to go to 406 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: the market place and occupy the land and take dominion 407 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: over it. Rafael continued, this in time transfer of wealth 408 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: will relieve Christians of all financial woes, allowing true believers 409 00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: to ascend to a position of political and cultural power 410 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: in which they can build a Christian civilization. When this 411 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: Christian nation is in place or back in place, Jesus 412 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: will return. Now, it's hard to say how large the 413 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 1: dominionist movement is precisely right now, they mostly focus on 414 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,880 Speaker 1: gaining power in legitimate ways by election. But if legitimate 415 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,640 Speaker 1: power collapses in large areas, what then? I can't imagine 416 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 1: Ted cruze taking up arms and ruling as some sort 417 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 1: of bearded warlord. Although I will admit that premise would 418 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: make a great graphic novel. But dominionists are heavily represented 419 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 1: among the American militia movement. Power hungry adherence to that 420 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 1: belief system would try to build their violent fiefdoms. Some 421 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:13,959 Speaker 1: of them would succeed. Now, if Sirious experiences any kind 422 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: of guide, these extremist groups would probably have trouble exercising 423 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: total control over a very large area, especially if they're 424 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: engaged in regular struggle with the state. Many Americans would 425 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: find themselves forced into the kind of devil's bargain. Millions 426 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,920 Speaker 1: of Syrians know all too well co operating with violent 427 00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 1: extremists in order to protect themselves from an even worse fate. 428 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 1: This often means working with people who you know are 429 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: doing something terrible just not to you, or it can 430 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: just be sort of awkward and weird. I found an 431 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 1: article on pbs dot com that included interviews with a 432 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: bunch of Syrians living and participating in these local councils. 433 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,040 Speaker 1: One of these subjects, a fellow identified as Yasin Kasam, 434 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: said this, there are members who are liberals and Democrats, 435 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: and then the more moderate sort of Islamist as well 436 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 1: has been involved, and then nationalists and ex bothists and 437 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: so on, but in a way it's not been so important. 438 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 1: In general, they're non ideal, logical bodies, particularly at the 439 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,199 Speaker 1: local level, which in a way looks like a way forward. 440 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if one guy is a leftist and 441 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 1: the guy next to him as an Islamist. They're there 442 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 1: because one of them knows something about how to get 443 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 1: the water system working, and another knows something about education, 444 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: and they're working about practical things for the sake of 445 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: the community. Now, the best case scenario, and the event 446 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: that the state falls where you happen to live probably 447 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: looks something like Rohava in northern Syria. Roughly three million 448 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 1: people live in the region, and they manage their affairs 449 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: with a system called democratic confederalism. At the local level, 450 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: it looks sort of like the best case scenario with 451 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 1: local councils. Their word for these structures translates roughly to 452 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: commune or municipality. Three thousand issue of these councils handle 453 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 1: basic services and security for most of the three million 454 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 1: people in Rohava. These bodies do a lot of the 455 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: basic grunt level work of what we rely on the 456 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: government for here, but they cannot legislate. Higher level administrative 457 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: functions are performed by the Northern Democratic Federation of Syria 458 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 1: or in DFS, an umbrella organization created by the p 459 00:22:56,880 --> 00:23:00,080 Speaker 1: y D or the Democratic Union Party of Syria. The 460 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,560 Speaker 1: p y D was originally a political party, although it 461 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: was essentially formed out of aspects of a very old 462 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: Kurdish separatist and militant tradition that existed in the region, 463 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: just not in Syria. You're not here for Syrian politics, 464 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 1: and I'm not an expert in them. The important thing 465 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 1: is there are aspects of the Rahavan phenomenon that are 466 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,959 Speaker 1: inherently rooted in Kurdish culture and local history, and there 467 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: are big aspects of it that could potentially be replicated 468 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: in the United States Democratic confederalism. The ideology behind the 469 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: ind f S and Rohava was cooked up by a 470 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:31,640 Speaker 1: guy named Abdola Oshlon Ashlan is by most descriptions, a terrorist, 471 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: although he's one of those terrorists that an awful lot 472 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: of people would rather call a freedom fighter. You can 473 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: make a strong case for both. He's been in a 474 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 1: Turkish prison for a while now, but he's been able 475 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 1: to keep writing books. Ashlon did not dream up democratic 476 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 1: confederalism entirely on his own, though his work was based 477 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 1: partly on the ideas of an American anarchist philosopher, Murray 478 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:53,399 Speaker 1: book Chin. Now. Extreme participatory local government is the idea 479 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 1: that undergirds Rohava. These communes contribute council members to coordinate 480 00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,879 Speaker 1: functions on a higher level and manage the lives of 481 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,479 Speaker 1: millions alongside the region's military force, the YPG. The YPG 482 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: or People's Protection Units, are the largest chunk of the 483 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,719 Speaker 1: Syrian democratic forces, who are the folks the US has 484 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 1: thrown most of its recent military aid and Syria towards. 485 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,080 Speaker 1: One reason I find Rohava fascinating is that for the 486 00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: most of the Syrian Civil War, they haven't directly opposed 487 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: the government, and in fact, they've received a lot of 488 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: criticism from other groups in the area for working with 489 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,120 Speaker 1: the Assad regime at times. But I think Rohava represents 490 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,199 Speaker 1: the kind of movement that would have better odds of 491 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,920 Speaker 1: capturing the sentiments of millions of Americans than a hardcore 492 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: communist or religious extremist movement. In fact, Rohava first came 493 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 1: to world prominence and established itself as a power in 494 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,360 Speaker 1: the region when it carried out a desperate and ultimately 495 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 1: successful battle against its local religious extremists. Isis most people 496 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 1: listening to this would probably be more likely to find 497 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 1: themselves swept up in a movement like this as opposed 498 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: to something more extreme and initially ideological. If it started 499 00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: in America, it would start with a lot of people 500 00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 1: volunteering to keep their local communities safe. Not taking up 501 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,359 Speaker 1: arms against the state, but manning barricades and chef points 502 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,919 Speaker 1: to ensure bad actors don't enter the area and people's 503 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,439 Speaker 1: safety is respected. Coordinating with other neighborhoods to grow and 504 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 1: transport food, pooling medical knowledge, and defensive resources in order 505 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: to keep things as nice as possible while the government 506 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: retreats and the extremists make their bids for power. It's 507 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 1: probably not a huge stretch to imagine yourself taking part 508 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 1: in something like this, at least is a short term thing. 509 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 1: If you watched footage of the flooding in Houston in 510 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 1: two thousand seventeen, you saw lots of examples of community 511 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 1: members organizing search parties and gathering food and supplies for 512 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:32,400 Speaker 1: each other spontaneously. As I stated earlier, overwhelming evidence says 513 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 1: this is normal human behavior in the face of any 514 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: kind of calamity. Organization on a larger than neighborhood scale 515 00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: is just sort of a given if things last long 516 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 1: enough that the state loses enough power. Most people don't 517 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 1: live in areas where it's possible to grow enough food 518 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: to sustain the population, at least not in the immediate term, 519 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 1: although a number of urban planners have noted that the 520 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 1: increasingly vacant big box stores that litter America's urban and 521 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: suburban spaces could be turned into giant indoor farms with 522 00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,960 Speaker 1: a sufficient amount of elbow grease. But in the immediate term, 523 00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: America's urban and suburban areas where most of us live, 524 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 1: would be unable to feed themselves without extensive, wide ranging 525 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: cooperation with their neighbors, including the rural communities that provide 526 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 1: most of our food In the North and Northeast United States, 527 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 1: roughly eighty percent of food is important areas like the 528 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 1: rural Midwest in the Pacific Northwest would be less vulnerable 529 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 1: to starvation, But any kind of conflict, particularly one that 530 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 1: saw Central California's water supply throttled, even temporarily, would lead 531 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,199 Speaker 1: to soaring food prices. Urban and rural America currently have 532 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 1: pretty extreme political divides, but both also have a lot 533 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,760 Speaker 1: of things that the other wants and needs. The benefit 534 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 1: of a system like the one in Rohava is that 535 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: it would allow local areas to handle their own ship 536 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,159 Speaker 1: and live their own way, while still cooperating on a 537 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 1: larger scale to make sure food and goods get where 538 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: they need to go. In Syria, where this system actually 539 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,879 Speaker 1: does work, albeit imperfectly, local communities there have still have 540 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,200 Speaker 1: massive religious and cultural differences. Political radicals who evangelize a 541 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:57,200 Speaker 1: shared far left, radically egalitarian ideology are able to coexist 542 00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 1: and mostly cooperate with deeply religious tribal communities of different 543 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 1: races and religions. According to an Atlantic Council report on 544 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: Rohava and the in d f S quote, the structure 545 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 1: allows for some local autonomy, but within the confines of 546 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 1: INDIFS control and SDF command. Essentially, the p y D 547 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 1: and its affiliates have introduced an entirely new political system 548 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 1: to ensure the security of areas they have taken from Isis, 549 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: While the underlying socio political dimensions of these localities remain 550 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 1: unchanged for now. The best chance for Arabs to gain 551 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: political access within the Kurdish dominated structure appears to be 552 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,640 Speaker 1: to run for local councils at the commune level, join 553 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 1: municipal civilian protection units, or join the SDF, which is 554 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:38,120 Speaker 1: increasingly recruiting Arabs. Revolutionary politics, particularly of the far left valariety, 555 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 1: often rely too much on pie in the sky visions 556 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,600 Speaker 1: of complete social reorganization, the kind of thing that can 557 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,160 Speaker 1: only be achieved by a mass revolution an enormous top 558 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,199 Speaker 1: down state control see the U S s R. The 559 00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: reason I think the Rohavan model might be popular in 560 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 1: parts of the United States is that it allows for 561 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 1: substantial local autonomy will still getting shipped done on a 562 00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 1: larger scale. This model of economic organization doesn't require are 563 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 1: everyone to read a lot of political theory. It's what 564 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 1: we call a municipalized economy. Janet Beale, a political theorist 565 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 1: who wrote a book on libertarian municipalism, explained it this way. 566 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 1: Libertarian municipalism advances a form of public ownership that is 567 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 1: truly public. The political economy it proposes is one that 568 00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 1: is neither privately owned, nor broken up into small collectives, 569 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,800 Speaker 1: nor nationalized. Rather, it is one that is municipalized, placed 570 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 1: under community ownership and control. Could you organize the economic 571 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 1: lives of tens or hundreds of millions of people this way? 572 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 1: Nobody really knows, but it's worked for a couple of 573 00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 1: million people for several years so far, And in my opinion, 574 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 1: the impulses that lead people to organize such as system 575 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: are instinctive and basic enough that I could see big 576 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,200 Speaker 1: chunks of this country that are more inherently able to 577 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 1: sustain themselves, like the Northwest and Midwest, and chunks of 578 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: the South and Southeast embracing similar situations in order to 579 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: make up for the retreat or collapse of federal power. 580 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 1: There are people in the United States right now who 581 00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,520 Speaker 1: are preparing for this world too. While there are dominionist 582 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,440 Speaker 1: militiamen preparing to fight for what they believe in, groups 583 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: like Mutual Aid Disaster Relief have started building national networks 584 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 1: dedicated to community self defense, making sure people have the 585 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,800 Speaker 1: things they need in the wake of hurricanes and tornadoes. 586 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: Mutual Aid Disaster Relief has its genesis in a group 587 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 1: called the Common Ground Clinic, which provided necessary medical care. 588 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: In the immediate wake of Hurricane Katrina. Common Ground was 589 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 1: a complex organization. There were stories of FBI infiltration and 590 00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 1: things got kind of messy. But as I talked about 591 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,040 Speaker 1: in the first episode, the more than ten years since 592 00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: this have led to a lot of growth and evolution 593 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 1: in America's protest and resistance infrastructure. Mutual aid disaster relief 594 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 1: is just one outgrowth of that. There are hundreds of 595 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: people around the country right now who are learning to 596 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 1: coordinate and communicate to make sure at risk communities have 597 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,800 Speaker 1: the supplies they need. It's a seed like the DOMINIONUS 598 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 1: preppers loading a rs and carving crosses in the butt 599 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,360 Speaker 1: stocks of their rifles. It's possible neither of those seeds 600 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 1: will sprout. It's also possible that both will rain but 601 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 1: sto like a streak Anywhere match like a Streak Anywhere match, 602 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: Like a streak Anywhere match, waiting for the sparker started 603 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,960 Speaker 1: like a strike anywhere match. They building condors while you sleep, Mama, 604 00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 1: up goes another as we speed my man and by 605 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: them time you out. If she's my man. They ever 606 00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 1: placed every dead building on your street, Mama, Every single 607 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: look the same to me. Mit sdiocrity, class, concrete and 608 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 1: strong and happens privately. Better get in now before they 609 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,440 Speaker 1: price you at your privately or reinforcing doors, lay and teuble, 610 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: love that lock and key. What's starting to light? Luxury? 611 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 1: What's starting this taste like God? Really justus? Love ugly? 612 00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,680 Speaker 1: Or he never just listened to you? How long in 613 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 1: the street term lady, absolutely come from you. Women in 614 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: Roy just came coming in. Then the voling play for you, 615 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 1: get the violing stay in tune? What's strong gonna break 616 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: your back? Boy? You turn your ass into something new? 617 00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 1: What's your thing gonna act? Boy? Until they take it 618 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 1: all right back? I remember that, and I'm just exhausted 619 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 1: from reading all of that. You can find me on 620 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,920 Speaker 1: Twitter at I right okay. You can find this show 621 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 1: on Twitter at happen here pod, and you can find 622 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 1: this show online at it could happen here pod dot com. 623 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: Our music, as always, is from Four Fists