1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining 5 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: us right now, really for a conversation of the day, 6 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,880 Speaker 1: is Mr Hahn, Dr Hahn. The FDA to be very 7 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 1: direct here when you are a radiologist and oncologist at 8 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: m D Anderson, when you walk in the room, people 9 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: should be silent and listen. Dr Han. We are honored 10 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: to have you with us. Is Washington listening to you 11 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: and your f D A welcome morning, um and yes 12 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 1: absolutely UM. I think particularly around the vaccine UM, we 13 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: have been getting the message out that our terrific career 14 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 1: scientists have been looking critically at all the data and 15 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: made a decision based upon the science and data, and 16 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: we're very confident about the safety and efficacy of these vaccines. 17 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: It's dartr. Stephen Hahn. It comes down to a confidence 18 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 1: and a trust. And it's one thing to see the 19 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,040 Speaker 1: President of elect out being Sean, have you had the 20 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: vaccine yet, sir? I have not and that's not because 21 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,759 Speaker 1: of any lack of trust. I'm waiting for my turn 22 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: based upon risk factors. I do actually have adult children 23 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: who are one child who has received it, and so um, 24 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: that should tell you a lot about my confidence. And 25 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 1: that's for sure. Where do we need to get to 26 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: with the vaccines? Are you in the f d A 27 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: more focused on a broad set of vaccines? Are you 28 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 1: focused on the millions required to get to that hurdle 29 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: rate that is magical? So we're focused on both because 30 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: it's it's it's really important. So we we need to 31 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: get to the point where we have herd immunity in 32 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: the United States frankly around the world to stop the 33 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: spread of this this this virus um and we experts 34 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: think that's seven to the population vaccinator had the disease. 35 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: So there's a multi prom approach. One is working with 36 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: the developers of the vaccines still in development um to 37 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 1: to help get them through the development process, through the 38 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: clinical trials and then an application to US, at which 39 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 1: point we will review the full data package. And then 40 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: also making sure that we're working with the manufacturers of 41 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,399 Speaker 1: the to authorize vaccines to make sure there's as much 42 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: ramp up as possible, and that includes providing information about 43 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: the supply chain, also making sure that there's a high 44 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 1: quality of manufacturing, which we believe there is. Commissioner, how 45 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,239 Speaker 1: do you combat accusations of political interference in the very 46 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:49,359 Speaker 1: medical deliberations of the f d A so um Our 47 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 1: response is to be transparent, as you know. In June 48 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,079 Speaker 1: and then in October, we issued guidance around the vaccines, 49 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: and we've done this for We've issued more guidance this 50 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: year than in than in that period of time, and 51 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: I think we ever had. And the reason for that 52 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: is we wanted everyone out there who is developing medal 53 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: medical products to know what our thinking was, what would 54 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: we need to see in order to do an authorization 55 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 1: for any medical product, now, particularly for vaccines. We put 56 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: those guidances out so that the manufacturers would know what 57 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: information to send to us in an application. We stuck 58 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: to that guidance, We followed that guidance, and we had 59 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 1: unprecedented transparency around our review process with an open public 60 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: discussion of the data. No other regulatory agency in the 61 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: world has done that. I think that provided great confidence 62 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: to the American people. Dr Hahn, We look at Silver 63 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: Spring Maryland and the set of buildings that you have 64 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: up there in the heritage back to how America didn't 65 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: do SOLIDIMID like so many others. And you've dovetail it 66 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: over your career. Dr Fauci's career. Who folks will be 67 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 1: with Broomberg Bloomberg later, the good people at c d 68 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: C as well. Are you confident we can get our 69 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: science back into the system. Oh, I'm a PC confident. 70 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 1: UM I had. It's been such a privilege to work 71 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: with our scientists. UM. I have come in my career 72 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: as an ecologist to depend upon the f d A. 73 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: UM I know that my colleagues in medicine do as well. 74 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,799 Speaker 1: What I can tell you in is that every decision 75 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 1: that we made has been based upon the existing scientists. 76 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: We've had to be pragmatic, We've had to make decisions 77 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 1: based upon limited data sets, but we've always updated them 78 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: as more data came in and we will continue to 79 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: do that, and our decisions are made by career scientists 80 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: at the FDA. I want you to address, for those 81 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: listening and watching right now, Dr Hahn, the shock of 82 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 1: anaphylactric shock or something of that variance. Walk through the 83 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: statistics you have learned about what we see in the 84 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 1: modern media. We go up to Alaska wherever, and someone 85 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: is shocked by the giving of the vaccine. Put that 86 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: in the proper science perspective. Yeah, really important. This is 87 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,279 Speaker 1: such a great question, and it's it's it's I'll put 88 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: my doctor hat on, because when we talk to someone 89 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: about a side effect, if it's uncommon or not, you 90 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 1: put it in plain language. So the way I would 91 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: describe this is the clinical trial data from the vaccines 92 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 1: did not show a serious risk of anaflaxus, that most 93 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 1: serious side effect. But if there is a side effect, 94 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: that's one in a million, let's just use that as 95 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: an example, or one in five thousand. That's you're you're 96 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: less likely to have anaflexus than you are to get 97 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 1: into trouble walking across the street in the crowded road. 98 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 1: And so it's a very low frequency event if it 99 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: does occur. We're monitoring these very closely. Um and as 100 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: you scale up vaccination and you vaccinate millions of people, 101 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: you might see a very uncommon event. It's why people 102 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: have to be observed, it's why we have to have 103 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: the protection. There should allergic event occur. We believe it's 104 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 1: a very uncommon event. We're still looking into some of 105 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 1: these events that have been reported. We take them very 106 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: seriously and we'll can tinue to provide that information to 107 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 1: the American people. Doctor Han, we learned in February and 108 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 1: March the dynamics of a horrific virus. It's a three 109 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 1: form differential equation. Folks. All you need to know is 110 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 1: there's a lot of moving parts. I want you to 111 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:15,719 Speaker 1: go back to Rice University in the math that you 112 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,599 Speaker 1: did years ago on when we can say all clear 113 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: based on the complex moving parts of multiple vaccines, booster shots, 114 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: in the thirst to get the vaccine of America, when 115 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 1: can you say within a window we will be all clear? 116 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: So you know, I learned a long time ago as 117 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: a cancer doctor. I don't have a crystal ball. My 118 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: sincerest toe that in one we will achieve herd immunity 119 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 1: and we can put this pandemic behind us. That was 120 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 1: way too short a question there. I think doctor Hahn 121 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: really didn't want to talk about that. You got out 122 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 1: nicely to two thousand twenty one Johnson and Johnson. I 123 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: believe as a distinction of of of some form of 124 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:04,479 Speaker 1: vaccine without a booster shot, partition vaccines with a booster 125 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: shot and those without one shot efficacy. So this is 126 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: this is all based upon the development process. And in 127 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: the development process you move from developing the vaccine of 128 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: the platform to animals to humans. And it's during that 129 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: development process that a developer would figure out you need 130 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: one shot or two shots to get the sort of 131 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: immunity that you think would protect people. So, as it's 132 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 1: publicly known J and J has a vaccine, that's that's 133 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: one shot not to um If that if that passes 134 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: through the development process and we see great efficacy and safety, 135 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 1: that would be a really terrific event for for us. 136 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: We have to see what the clinical trial data though, 137 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: show to determine whether it's safe and effective. I believe 138 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: the accountable statistic Dr Hann is for offspring. I think 139 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: that's what you've generated here in a wonderful marriage over 140 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 1: x the number of years. How will the Hans handle 141 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: the Christmas social life of a family? As Prime Minister 142 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: John and frankly President Trump are focused on, how do 143 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: the Hans do the holiday season? Well, we socially distant. 144 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: We we normally have a big gathering people we're not 145 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: doing that this year. Immediate family. Um, if we do 146 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: have non immediate family in in the in in the area, 147 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: we're gonna socially distance and were vaccine and which you 148 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: wear masks. But we're gonna keep it very very limited 149 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: this year, and there'll there'll be other Christmas is Um. 150 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 1: What's really important is to protect the most vulnerable and 151 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: to to prevent community spread. We all have a responsibility there. 152 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 1: One final question, Dr Han. Of course, the news if 153 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 1: fiser in some form of many millions of new vaccines 154 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: for America, when do we say fully vaccinated or at 155 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: least mostly vaccinated for the elderly, their true aged and 156 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:53,200 Speaker 1: also for the essential workers in our hospitals. So the 157 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: CDC and the A C A P Committee has labeled 158 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: this one A, one B, one C and one A 159 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,200 Speaker 1: M one B fits from us to those folks that 160 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: you're talking about. And um, I believe the schedule at 161 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: this point is that we can get almost all of 162 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:08,599 Speaker 1: those people vaccinated by the first quarter, so by the 163 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: end of March, maybe sooner um. And so we're working 164 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: really hard at f D a UH with hand in 165 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: hand with CDC to try to get as many vaccines 166 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 1: out there as possible, and work with the manufacturers to 167 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: ramp up manufacturing. Thank you so much. Talk greatly appreciated 168 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 1: today Stephen Hahn of the FDA and a commissioner here, 169 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: as they've had a hugely successful week rolling out the vaccine. 170 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,439 Speaker 1: The President blowing up the dialogue last night in the 171 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: seven o'clock hour, What is so important here? And I 172 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 1: listen to the entire four minute video. I believe the 173 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 1: President led with the cuts he needs or the complaints, 174 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: I should say, starting with the funding of Cambodia. There 175 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: are others out there worried about the good that is 176 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: within the bill. We heard that from, among other Senator 177 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 1: Schumer of New York orc and let's cut to the chase. 178 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: Is it about Cambodia or is it about the end 179 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: train to Coney Island? Patrick Foyd joins us. Who knows 180 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,719 Speaker 1: about the end train to Coney Island? To be clear here, 181 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 1: Mr Foy and the m t A. You're funded within 182 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: this present bill, So the end train runs to Coney Island, 183 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 1: right morning, Tom, That's exactly right. Thanks to Center Schumer's intervention, 184 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 1: the bill that was passed by the Senate in the 185 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,000 Speaker 1: House earlier in the week provides over four billion dollars 186 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: of funding for the m t A. It's critically needed. 187 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: The effect of that is it will cover almost all 188 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,959 Speaker 1: of our deficit, and the drastic service cuts that we've 189 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: been talking about on subways, buses, commuter rails and laying 190 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: off of the ten thousand of our collegues will be avoided. 191 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: At least. If the lawyer from Fordham and Scatt and 192 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: Arms gets a cup of coffee this morning with the 193 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 1: President of the United States, how do you straighten him out? Look? 194 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,559 Speaker 1: I I think the American people need relief. States and 195 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: cities need relief, Transit agencies need relief. In the mt 196 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: A definitely needs relief. The bill that was passed earlier 197 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: in the week is incredibly important for the m t A, 198 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: and the m t A is critical to the economic 199 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: recovery of New York City. Not having to make reductions 200 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 1: on subways and busses up the service reductions of fifty 201 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: on the commuter rails and avoiding laying off ten thousand 202 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: of our colleagues is incredibly important to the New York economy. 203 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: N y US Rooting Center said that we could lose 204 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: up the four hundred and fifty thousand jobs in the region. 205 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: If we had to make these cuts in about sixty 206 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 1: billion of gross the regional product, that's a national issue. 207 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:46,599 Speaker 1: This bill gets it done. President eleg Biden's right, that 208 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: will be a need for additional negotiations and legislation and 209 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: relief next year. But that's next year. This bill, it's really, 210 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: from an mt A point of view, a matter of 211 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 1: critical urgency. And just to give you some numbers be 212 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 1: hind it. Fourteen billion dollars of aid was committed for 213 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: public transit in the bill, at least four billion dollars 214 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: of that going toward the m t A. How much 215 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: time pat does that buy you before traffic on the subways, 216 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: on the buses really has to pick up back to 217 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: something that resembles pre pandemic LISA. It buys us a year, 218 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 1: it buys us all one. It covers UH. The four 219 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: billion plus covers the mt A deficit. One will need 220 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: more relief then, But to get us through this year, 221 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: is it extraordinarily important. We won't have the layoff ten 222 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 1: thousand people and we'll be able to continue and grow 223 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: the service that we're providing for the essential workers. At 224 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: first responders and office workers as they returned to wide 225 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: New York. So there's a concern about whether people will 226 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 1: have the same confidence in public transportation post pandemic, just 227 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: because of the incredible response and the potential for transmission 228 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 1: of disease. What are you finding How are you convincing 229 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 1: people that it's not a vector of disease and that 230 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: they will be safe coming back to the subway even 231 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: after the vaccine. Great question. So a couple of things. 232 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: One is we're disinfecting, not cleaning, but we're disaffecting every 233 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 1: subway station and subway car, same on commuter rail, same 234 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: on our paratransit vehicles multiple times a day. UH. We 235 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: are innovating in terms of air exchange, anti microbials, ultra violet, 236 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: sealight UH and and other products, some of which are 237 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: in place, some of which are being piloting, some of 238 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 1: which we're experimenting with government agencies around the world. No 239 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: vector of the Corona virus nineteen has been identified with 240 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: mass transit. Governor Cromos reported recently that about seventy nearly 241 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: seventy transmissions occur as in private gatherings and homes transit 242 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 1: all of our passengers have to wear a mask as 243 00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: a matter of state law as a result of the 244 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 1: Governor's executive order, and compliance is extraordinarily high, well over 245 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 1: mass compliance. What have you seen in the last couple 246 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: of weeks, Pat four in the statistics are people you 247 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: know what I mean? Frankly after nine eleven without immense 248 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: fear of getting on trains? Is the fear receding? I 249 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: think the fearies of receiving the The ridership declines are 250 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 1: worse than the Great Depression and the worst days March 251 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 1: and April. Subway riders shifferences was now it's now down 252 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: about seventy that's a huge drop, but still it's a 253 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: great improvement on subways and busses were close to carrying 254 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 1: three million passengers a day. Makes us the largest transit 255 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: system in the country. Comparing our peers to pre pandemic levels. Well, 256 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: we've got We've got a long way to go. And 257 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 1: writers writership is increasing and I believe will continue to increase. 258 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: Mr Foy, whant you to speak right now to the 259 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: cities across this nation listening on radio and TV. You 260 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: know what, they're not New York. They don't have the 261 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: transportation grid, they're stuck in traffic out on some highways somewhere. 262 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: Speak of how year world overlays with people stuck on 263 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg radio and some traffic jam right now in Dallas 264 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: or in San Francisco. Well, first Alice in San Francisco 265 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: have mass transit systems, and there's more transit system around 266 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: the country than is commonly perceived. We're obviously the largest, 267 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: but what I tell your listeners, for instance, in Nebraska, 268 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: tong is that there are two thousand Americans working in Lincoln, 269 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: Nebraska building cars for Kawasaki, for New York City, for 270 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: the New York City subways from Metro North and Long 271 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,320 Speaker 1: Island Railroad. Our Capitol Plan fifty one and a half 272 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: billion dollars, which is on cause, touches nearly every state 273 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: in the country. And that's why the Routing Center indicated 274 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: that that the that the this national effect if we 275 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: had to cut service and our capital plan. A good update, 276 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: Petrick Foyd, thank you so much. I've really looked forward 277 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: to this because with all the distraction of Washington, we're 278 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: observing to see if Mr Trump tweets out after the 279 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: bombshell announcement last night of his reticence of stimulus, all 280 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: that's going in Europe with Brexit, and of course with 281 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: France and England. You know what, nothing matters right now 282 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: across radio and TV and this American economy. Diane Swank 283 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: has been following this for decades or wonderful work at 284 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 1: Bank One and onward and now at Grant Thornton as 285 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: their chief economists. Diane thrilled to have you on with 286 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: us today. In the slew of economic data, what matters 287 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: to you. What matters is that we're seeing that consumer 288 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: spending is pulling back or slowing down at a time 289 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: when we should be ramping up. And that's because of 290 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: the surgeon COVID cases. We've been much less of the 291 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: declines and the blow because of the surgeon COVID cases 292 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: has been much less than in the past. There's three 293 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: key reasons for that that I think we need to 294 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: keep framed in the economy today. And that's one is 295 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: mitigation measures by states have not been as severe California 296 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: and outlier there where their cases have overwhelmed hospitals. Now too, 297 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: is that we're coming off a lower base. Remember, you know, 298 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: as we look at these unemployment claims, they're still disastrous, 299 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 1: but off of an idea that we've already had such 300 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: huge losses out there. That's important to remember as well, 301 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: and it mitigates the declines from here on out. I 302 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 1: think the other important issue is we've seen a shifting 303 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: consumer behaviors. Not only are they less skittish than they 304 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: were in the spring before we ever had lockdowns where 305 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 1: they pulled back ahead of that, they've been actually somewhat 306 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: jubilant in the response to the vaccine we're seeing in 307 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: behavioral economics. A study that shows that people are actually 308 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 1: more risk taking because of vaccine is out there, even 309 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: though that is making contagion worse. And what we really 310 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,919 Speaker 1: worry about now is what's going to happen in the 311 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: wake of the Christmas holiday and how much travel we 312 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: see and what that does two cases through the worst 313 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 1: of the winter, which are supposed to crust in January. 314 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 1: So that's a really important thing, is that we still 315 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 1: have momentum, but we are losing momentum at a critical time, 316 00:17:57,640 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: and you know, we have to step back before we 317 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: too stuffs back, before we get forward again and unleashed 318 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: this pent up demand. We're not out of the woods, 319 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: that is for sure, just to bring you some more 320 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 1: numbers as they roll out. We're getting revised initial jobless 321 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,679 Speaker 1: claims for last week. Uh, that is revised upward. That 322 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: is not good. Up is bad to eight hundred from 323 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,439 Speaker 1: the eight hundred and eighty five thousand that were initially reported. Uh. 324 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: That does taint a little bit the better than expected 325 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: initial jobless claims of eight hundred uh and three thousand 326 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,680 Speaker 1: this week. I will say, Diane, to your point about 327 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: personal income and personal spending, the decline, the bigger than 328 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: expected decline that we saw in this week's data to me, 329 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 1: stands out even more than the initial jobless claims. Is 330 00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:45,080 Speaker 1: this being driven by support programs running off and people 331 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 1: not getting as much unemployment aid? Or is this because 332 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,399 Speaker 1: people with higher wage jobs are getting laid off in 333 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: greater numbers. Well, actually, it's interesting because we saw a 334 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,199 Speaker 1: major slowdown unemployment gains in a month of November. It's 335 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: slowed to a year crawl. That's important, and what little 336 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: we did get tended to be lower wage employment. Games. 337 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: We have seen a slowdown in hiring of higher wage jobs, 338 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,720 Speaker 1: which had done much better up until we got into 339 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 1: October and November. So I think that's important as well. 340 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: We also know from the high frequency data that we 341 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 1: saw a sharp deceleration in spending in the second half 342 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: of November, which included that week of Thanksgiving, and the deceleration, 343 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: although we saw declines by low wage and middle wage 344 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: household um in that number, the biggest deceleration, although it 345 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 1: was still positive in the number, was by high wage households. 346 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,919 Speaker 1: And we know from earlier in the crisis that the 347 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 1: behavior of high wage households really matters. Not only did 348 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,640 Speaker 1: their incomes and adding of those jobs slowed down quite 349 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 1: dramatically in the month of November, but we also saw 350 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: their behavior change and that has ripple effects for middle 351 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 1: and low age jobs. We know in New York, for instance, 352 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: in the highest wage areas where the highest income was 353 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: as consumers pulled back on their spending, it meant layoffs 354 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 1: in the service sector jobs in those highwage areas. So 355 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 1: that's what we're watching, is this sort of domino effect 356 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: you tend to get, and that's what we're worried about 357 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,120 Speaker 1: going forward. Well, Diana, it's a heritage of your Michigan economics, 358 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: which is a good study of history of economics, and 359 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: so much of that is wage flatness and even outright 360 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 1: wage deflation, whether nominal or real. How close are we 361 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:29,199 Speaker 1: to this great great fear of some form of wage deflation. 362 00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 1: I think we're still not to wage deflation, although it 363 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: is notable, and I wouldn't be surprised to see as 364 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 1: we look into some of the data that in the 365 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 1: height of the crisis, many firms in the spring saw 366 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,680 Speaker 1: this as a temporary event, and as a temporary event 367 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 1: actually did temporary wage cutch is something we never saw before, 368 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,720 Speaker 1: even in high income households, and I wouldn't be surprised 369 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 1: as we see, um we saw many economies abroad shutdown 370 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 1: and go into lockdown much more aggressively on their contagion 371 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: measures than in the US, that there is some of 372 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: that behavior as well. I think we're still not into 373 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 1: a wage deflation scenario, but it really underscores the PC 374 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,919 Speaker 1: numbers taking down a busin as well that the fears 375 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: that people had of this being an inflationary supply chain 376 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: surge which is not showing up. I think is important 377 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,640 Speaker 1: that this is more of a disinflationary event, not deflationary, 378 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: but disinflationary, and that's what the FEDS word. I've got 379 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 1: like thank you. I've got like eight ways to go here, folks. 380 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 1: This conversation is so important. But Diana, I'm just gonna 381 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 1: partition right over to the gross question. As Olivier Blanchard 382 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: has provided leadership on, there has to be an overt 383 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: policy to reflate. Do we have an overt policy to reflate? 384 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 1: Not yet, not unless we get a lot more fiscal stimulus. 385 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: This fiscal stimulus that we're talking about now, and we 386 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,919 Speaker 1: have to see stimulus is the wrong word relief. Although 387 00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: there is some things in there that are for transit, 388 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 1: a mass transit that keeps people going to low age jobs, 389 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 1: and for schools, which I think is very important, but 390 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: really important, not in that relief bill which has yet 391 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: to be signed. Um. I think it's very important to 392 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 1: point out there's not the state and local spending that 393 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: we need the transfers to the states, and that means 394 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,920 Speaker 1: as we unleashed pent up demand, we're not going to 395 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 1: really be able to fully recoup all the employment losses 396 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: we lost because state and local governments will still be cutting. 397 00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: Also important is after we get through that initial surge 398 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: in economic activity, is the idea that we have to 399 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: not only recoup what we lost and get back to 400 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: the previous peak in economic activity, which was the fourth 401 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 1: quarter of two thousand nineteen. We don't expect to hit 402 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 1: that until the second half. If we're lucky with herd 403 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: immunity of one, that's two years lost in economic activity. 404 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: But also remember we also are lost what would have 405 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 1: been absent COVID, and we were generating about two hundred 406 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: thousand jobs a month by February. That will be another 407 00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: two point four million in the whole on job gains 408 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: that didn't happen because of this crisis. There's an article 409 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: in Bloomberg Business Week, the headline it's been a great 410 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 1: year for stocks and a bear market for humans. We 411 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: get these numbers, their dire markets do nothing. They're up 412 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: tremendously over the past couple of months. Does that worry you? 413 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 1: It does worry me. But I do think there is 414 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 1: a fundamental break between what's happening on Wall Street and 415 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: what's happening on main street. Wall Street is long technology 416 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 1: and the sectors of the economy that have benefited the 417 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,920 Speaker 1: most from this perverse environment. The SMP five only accounts 418 00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: for about of employment in the US, is hardly reflective 419 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 1: of the U s economy and less reflective than it 420 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: ever has been. At one point in time, the Dow 421 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 1: Jones accounted for about fifty of employment the US economy. 422 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 1: That just isn't the case anymore. While Main Street is 423 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: long discretionary services and low wage jobs. And what we're 424 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: seeing is the persistence of the losses of those low 425 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: wage jobs, a slowdown and hiring of high wage jobs. 426 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,959 Speaker 1: And that's leaving Main Street at a from place than 427 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: Wall Street. Good go all morning. We can't Diane Swank, 428 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: thank you so much with Grant Thornton off of a 429 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: wall of economic data. One thing that I'm struck by 430 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,640 Speaker 1: is that the unprecedented has become mundane, and I think 431 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,879 Speaker 1: markets have been shrugging off an increasing number of unprecedented development's. 432 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 1: President Trump's release on Twitter perhaps among them. And Julie 433 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: Norman has been covering a precedent and history and really 434 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,679 Speaker 1: studying it from the university college where she is at 435 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: Political Science Professor, University College London, and Julie, I'm wondering 436 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,360 Speaker 1: if you could paint a picture from a historical perspective 437 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 1: of how unusual it is for a president of the 438 00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,199 Speaker 1: United States to come in at the last minute and 439 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: threatened to put a kaibash on a deal that was 440 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: struck so perilously close to the deadline with bipartisan support. 441 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 1: Well least, I mean, some of the words that we're 442 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 1: hearing from Washington this morning are that Trump's winging his 443 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,480 Speaker 1: like a stunic boom, It's like a cannon all into 444 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 1: calm waters. That's it's pretty much whatever explosive image you 445 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: can come up with. And and that is just because 446 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: it's so uncommon for a president to do this at 447 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,719 Speaker 1: something that's so last minute, but also something that's so 448 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: high stake. This is not only a bill that will 449 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 1: bring coronavirus relief, but also is the appropriations bill as well, 450 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 1: and uh, not having this go forward could result in 451 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: the government shutdown within a week, So very high stake bill. 452 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 1: The president even comprising his own aids with his common Yesterday, 453 00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: Tom Keino has been talking all morning about this person 454 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: who we occasionally see on the television. He's been talking 455 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 1: all morning about the presidential power. How much power does 456 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 1: Trump have to come in and single handedly stym me 457 00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 1: this deal. What's your sense of that. What's the significance 458 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 1: of this move? Tool Well, it's significant in that with 459 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,719 Speaker 1: us with such an achievement to have this bipart as 460 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: an effort finally go forward after the back and forth 461 00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: between both parties. And what is notable about this bill 462 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,760 Speaker 1: was that it passed quite strongly in both the House 463 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 1: and the Senate, the Senate passing at nine two to six. 464 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 1: And so even if Trump were to veto it, the 465 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: Trump the bill itself is proof, um but that would 466 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: take weeks longer, and again most of the country doesn't 467 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:23,439 Speaker 1: have weeks to wait for that relief. And again we 468 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,639 Speaker 1: have this government shutdown pending as well. So um. So 469 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,600 Speaker 1: it is very significant. And again we haven't heard from 470 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,880 Speaker 1: Trump exactly that he will vito it, but just that 471 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,920 Speaker 1: there's that potential and we're monitoring that right now, folks, 472 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 1: as we go into the morning in Washington, Professor Norman, 473 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 1: what is so important here is the idea of Okay, 474 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 1: the President makes comments and they are domestic, his criticisms 475 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 1: of pork, but a huge amount of it was directed 476 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: at foreign aid. He's lead, i believe, with comments on Cambodia. 477 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 1: What is the level of an isolationist America that you gauge, 478 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: and particularly the ice so relationalism of President elect Biden. Well, Tim, 479 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 1: to me, this is going to be a really interesting 480 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 1: thing to watch with how Biden's team puts together there 481 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: foreign policy. Even though a lot of the team came 482 00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 1: from the Obama era, they just won't be able to 483 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 1: go back to the same globalization agenda that you know, 484 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,960 Speaker 1: typical kind of fifteen years ago. And I think we'll 485 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: see a bit more of a pivot to more inward 486 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,639 Speaker 1: thinking policies, still taking a much more multilateral approach, but 487 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:35,320 Speaker 1: one that is not overstressing the US overseas. You went 488 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: right where I wanted to go. I mean, what are 489 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,960 Speaker 1: we pivot to? What are we going to pivot to? What? 490 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:43,639 Speaker 1: In two thousand twenty one, Well, I think that Biden 491 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: will be trying to find some kind of third way 492 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 1: in between you know, Trump's more populous messaging and again 493 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 1: more of the globalization agenda from before. And I think 494 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 1: that would mean a still engaging strong than terms of 495 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,119 Speaker 1: diplomatic efforts in terms of working with with allies, with 496 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: international institutions, but in terms of just free reign with 497 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 1: free trade agreements and some of the enthusiasm behind that 498 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: that we've seen in the past, a bit more attention 499 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:13,199 Speaker 1: to what that would mean for American workers, American industries, 500 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,640 Speaker 1: and trying to keep some focus their rhetorically for sure, 501 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,360 Speaker 1: but hopefully on policy as well. Help How difficult will 502 00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 1: it be for Biden to re establish some of the 503 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 1: ties with allies that perhaps have been fraid over the 504 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:28,439 Speaker 1: past four years. Well, it'll be a little bit of 505 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 1: a challenge, but honestly, um, you know, many other our allies, 506 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,840 Speaker 1: especially European allies, are quite keen to see the Biden presidency. 507 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 1: Were very quick to congratulate and welcome President elect. So 508 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 1: a lot of those ties will move forward, and especially 509 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 1: as countries know that's in their best interests to keep 510 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:51,120 Speaker 1: those positive relations going with this administration. Julie Norman, thank 511 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 1: you so much for the briefing this morning. Just an 512 00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 1: extraordinary Wednesday. Good to speak to you with u Cel 513 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,960 Speaker 1: in London. Thanks for listening to The Bloomberg's Annas podcast. 514 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 515 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 516 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 517 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio