WEBVTT - The Role Nurses Play in Responding to COVID-19 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 and of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.240 and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, ol Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560 on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:36.320 by searching Bloomberg Global News. Looking forward to our next 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:38.519 guest who has our website points out has served as 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:40.800 senior consultant to the U. S. Government and then includes 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.839 Departments of Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Veterans Affairs, 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:48.240 the Administration for Children and Families, and most recently FEMA, 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:54.040 the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Dr tenort Mima is Professor 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:57.040 of Nursing at Johns Hopkins University of Bloomberg School of 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:59.840 Public Health. The Bloomberg School of Public Health supported by 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:02.200 my Lar Bloomberg founder of course at Bloomberg LP and 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:06.520 Bloomberg Philanthropies, and Dr Venoma joins us on the phone 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.360 from Sara Sota, Florida. Dr Venom, nice to have you 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.680 here on Bloomberg Radio. UM tell us a little bit 0:01:12.680 --> 0:01:15.080 about your world right now. I mean, I really feel 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.440 like it's an interesting time where we're seeing more of 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:21.680 the world reopening, we're seeing more virus cases. UM tell us, 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:25.200 how you see it at this point? Well, thank you 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.039 so much. It's an honor and a privilege to join 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:31.680 you this afternoon and to have the opportunity to comment 0:01:31.800 --> 0:01:36.680 on the ongoing COVID nineteen pandemic and just the incredible 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:40.600 burden and challenges that the pandemic has created for healthcare 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.200 systems and for the people who work within them. And 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:48.280 of course our report really focused on the challenges that 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:52.760 the nursing workforce faced and continue to face in light 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:57.280 of what we're sort of considering a smoldering pandemic that 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:02.160 we're actually seeing increases in certain states. So we have 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:05.920 really learned some early lessons from all of this, and 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:11.800 certainly from uh the the devastating impact that the pandemic 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:15.239 had in the Greater New York and New Jersey metro areas. 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:20.560 The surge and demand for healthcare for those UH increased 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:26.080 numbers of COVID positive patients just required that nurses UH 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:30.560 be able to work UM have had very limited access 0:02:30.639 --> 0:02:35.680 to the appropriate levels of personal protective equipment that they needed. 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:39.919 Many nurses have actually not received the training that one 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:44.000 needs to understand how to safely don and doff that 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:47.679 personal protective equipment. And then, of course, because of the 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:51.440 large number of patients surging as we refer to it, 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:57.680 within the healthcare system, we were forced to redesign workflow 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:03.880 and change staffing pattern and reassigned nurses to COVID positive 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:07.919 patient units where some of those nurses had never worked 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:12.040 with critically care patients before. So we saw a multitude 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:17.160 of challenges. We saw amazing resilience within the nursing workforce 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.440 in terms of being able to respond to those challenges. 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.880 But that led my colleagues and I to co author 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:26.960 the report that really tried to look at what the 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:30.080 issues were, so how do we fix it, because that 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:34.520 seems like you know, medical care one oh one right 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:36.240 to make sure that people first of all, of course 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:38.440 have the equipment. And we saw the problems with that, 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:42.360 you know revealed um as the case is spiked in 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:44.400 the country and certainly in places like New York City. 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:47.520 But how do you make sure that nurses and everyone 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:50.480 certainly within the health care community has the necessary equipment? 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:52.160 And I think training like that just seems to me 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.400 like you've got to make sure everybody knows how to 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:59.720 use it. Absolutely, you raised some excellent questions, and I 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.720 think my answer is that there's a myriad of factors 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:06.640 that really come into play here. Uh. It certainly starts 0:04:06.760 --> 0:04:11.120 fundamentally in in colleges and universities and schools of nursing 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:16.159 in terms of ensuring that pandemic preparedness and public health 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:22.200 emergency preparedness and response content is included in nurse and curriculum, 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.760 which very often it is not. And then so not 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:29.400 only do we really need to make sure that our 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:32.760 our student nurses and our graduate student nurses get this 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:36.720 education in training, but they are competent. They we are 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:40.240 testing their competencies in terms of their skills and abilities 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:44.880 to participate in pandemic response. We're looking down the road 0:04:45.080 --> 0:04:49.359 at the implementation of a national vaccine campaign where we 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:53.120 have you know, over three hundred and fifty million Americans 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:57.360 that will require a vaccine hopefully once it's developed and 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:01.040 manufactured and we're ready to distribute it, and certainly that 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:05.760 will be a very nursing intensive public health event. So 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:10.440 looking at education and preparingness is the right thing. The 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:13.880 other thing is the support of nurses in hospitals and 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:18.120 in healthcare setting in MS, so you know that ongoing 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:23.039 support from hospital administration and participating in disaster drill. Forgive me, 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:24.560 and I want to interrupt only because we only have 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:26.800 about a couple of minutes left here, but I do 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:29.440 wonder because you have worked with so many different departments 0:05:29.480 --> 0:05:32.520 within the government, whether it's FEMA, whether it's Health and 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:37.200 Human Services, Homeland Security, the v a UM in terms 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:41.000 of the government the federal government response, what needs to 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:43.320 be done differently next time around? And I will say 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.440 about the testing and tracing. We keep hearing that we 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:49.320 almost need a military like effort um to make sure 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.039 that we can kind of get out of this and 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.280 that we're kind of we're missing an opportunity. So I'm 0:05:54.320 --> 0:05:59.080 just curious how you see that. Absolutely well, obviously the 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:02.760 Department of Health and Human Services and in particular the 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:06.159 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and then ask for 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:11.120 the assistance Secretary Office of Preparedness and Response. Those are 0:06:11.200 --> 0:06:15.960 the federal agencies that in our report we strongly encourage 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:20.720 them to take time to look at detailed pandemic and 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:25.040 other disaster and public health emergency response plans and look 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:31.960 at the assumptions where having a prepared, competent nursing workforce 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:35.440 is going to be critical for them to execute those plans. 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.599 And so I do believe that the federal government needs 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.359 to take some steps to ensure that we're better prepared 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:44.080 next time. Well, we certainly certainly hope that we've all 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:47.360 learned you know, very obviously harsh lesson unfortunately, but we 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:50.320 do hope we've learned a lesson so that we cannot 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.200 do um and and meet this kind of a stress 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.560 or you know, tragedy in the future in a in 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.880 a much better way. Dr Tenor Venoma she is Professor 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.920 Nursing at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.760 As we mentioned, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.799 founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Radio. On the phone 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:13.000 from Sarasota, Florida, This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:17.240 Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Great cover story 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:18.960 this week. You and I have been talking about it 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:22.000 a lot um in the last day or so. It 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.520 is the remarks in the magazine. It's very timely. It's 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.520 a necessary conversation in light of the protests that have 0:07:27.640 --> 0:07:30.040 erupted over racism in America. And Jason, as we know, 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.120 it delves into the gaps between blacks and whites set 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:35.360 exist on many levels, and it asks a really important 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:40.560 question whether it is time maybe for quotas. Yeah, and 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:44.640 it is a powerful story, a provocative story. We expect 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.160 no less from Rebecca Greenfield. She runs all of our 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:52.760 diversity sustainability coverage here at Bloomberg, focusing on the managing 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:58.080 Diversity team, which is just doing some terrific work. She's 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.360 with us on the phone as a Stue Webber, both 0:08:00.400 --> 0:08:04.400 in Brooklyn. Joll set this up for us. Why the cover. 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:10.960 I think it's probably the most important story in corporate 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.960 America right now. Um, And it was one of these 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.480 ones that Rebecca filed the draft and we thought it 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:18.320 was really good and we started talking to the art 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.560 department about how do we art the story, and the 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:25.640 art department came back with basically the most arresting art 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:30.200 asset that that um that I I saw all week 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:36.079 I think, which was five hundred headshots of Fortune five companies. 0:08:36.240 --> 0:08:40.560 And it reveals that there are four black CEOs in 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:46.320 the country right now and in in leading uh fortuneies, 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:50.240 And that just alone is just shocking when you see it, 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.720 um laid out like we did on the cover. And um, 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:58.520 Rebecca's story is ultimately about quotas, which you know are 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:03.440 practically illegal. And yet when you see this gigantic problem 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:05.880 and it's you know, we put that problem on the 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:09.200 cover of the magazine, UM, it makes you wonder if 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:15.160 there shouldn't be a more radical approach for a solution. UM. So, so, Becca, 0:09:15.280 --> 0:09:18.200 can you kind of walk us through, um, what quotas 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:23.880 might solve in the problems that are associated with them. Yeah, so, 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:27.480 I think you mentioned the main problem, which is how 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:32.080 few black leaders there are. And this is not because 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:34.040 they have There haven't been a lot of efforts to 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:36.360 change the makeup of companies. There have been billions of 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:39.920 dollars that in decades of trying and of companies saying 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:42.480 it's in their best interest to do this, and most 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:46.079 companies one person I quote said so, but it's so 0:09:46.200 --> 0:09:51.000 well said. They look like Plantations. Organizational chart looks like Plantations, 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:52.679 and black folks are at the boss that was a 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:55.560 close to them. I gave me. And that's the reality 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:58.360 and it's and it hasn't changed. So what's what when 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:02.640 what's their own devices? Companies aren't really able to move 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.480 the needle, and it's it's because it's a very complicated 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:10.240 and difficult problem to solve. So, like to mention, I 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:14.160 was wondering if we need something more aggressive or more coercive. 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:19.520 And quotas are very controversial, but they have been proven 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:23.760 to work in that capacity, which is to get more representation. 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:27.320 They don't fix everything, they don't fix racism, but they 0:10:27.360 --> 0:10:30.280 do move the needle more than what company they're doing. 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:32.680 And we know, Rebecca, it has helped move the needle 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:36.840 with women. Correct. Yeah, So there is this law that 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:40.120 was passed in California UM a couple of years ago 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:44.959 that where they required boards there too have at least 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:49.600 one female director UM by last year and then they're 0:10:49.640 --> 0:10:52.000 upping that UM depending on the size of the board. 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:54.520 So there were there's a quota. They've been sued because, 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:58.400 like Jile mentioned, quotas, some are in a legal gray area. 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.760 But it has touched all of these boards of PELO 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:05.120 companies in California to add women, UM, and they were 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.640 worried that they wouldn't be able to find qualified candidates. 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.360 But at the end of the day they did to 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:12.480 comply because if they didn't comply, they had to pay 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:16.600 a hundred thousand dollar fine. Not everyone, there was a 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:20.080 huge I think the California one is a really interesting 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:24.480 UM example of how it might actually feel that there's 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:26.440 a way to make this work. But obviously there's going 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:28.679 to be these legal challenges and what would have been 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:33.400 the basis of the legal challenges so far in California. Yeah, 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:38.080 so quotas. I think the Supreme Court has been weighing 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:40.400 in an affirmative action. That's all comes back todaya of 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.440 affirmative action UM. And when the Supreme Court weighed in 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:48.400 has weighed in, they the Court has tended to not 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:51.640 like quotas. I think the Court thinks they go too far, 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:55.320 but has said that organizations can use affirmative action too 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.680 for their their interests. That's where we get this big 0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:02.199 pusher diversity. UM. So the legal challenges in California are 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:07.040 based in that spirit that quotas are a form of discrimination, 0:12:08.080 --> 0:12:12.559 UM and that it's unconstitutional. But neither of those challenges 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:15.160 have been successful so far. And in the meantime, the 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.840 boards are adding more women. And they don't think if 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:20.120 the laws, you know, knocked down, if they're going to 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:23.439 just fire these women from these boards. UM, I think 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.240 they're going to stick with it. Okay. I also want 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.200 to ask, because California isn't, um, the only place in 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:31.559 the world that is experimented with this. You also kind 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:35.440 of scratch some international UM seems what what what about 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:39.400 outside of the US. How are other countries looking at this? Yeah, 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:43.400 so you know laws are different places to the Norway. 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:48.280 They also have a public company, um law And says I, 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.640 forty person on the boards teach for women, which is high, 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.160 and they are women who hold a little bit over 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.680 forty percent of those positions. But I think it shows 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:59.000 the drawback of quotas or how quotas are limited. Really 0:12:59.000 --> 0:13:01.479 they do what they're so to do they get companies 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.840 to our boards or whoever, to add more of whatever 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:08.080 demographic you want. Even with all those women empowered hasn't 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:11.240 changed the overall makeup of the executive power of the 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.360 companies where there aren't quotas. So I think that kind 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:16.320 of shows their quotas are very powerful what they do, 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.160 and you need them. But also you can't just use 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.640 them in one place and expect you know, the rest 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:25.360 of corporate America to PA Online or or Norway or wherever. Well, 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:28.000 and it's interesting, you know, Becky, you you also bring 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:33.000 up the idea that even talking about them maybe spur action. 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:35.959 I mean, is that a reasonable argument? I mean, what 0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:38.839 do you think of that that? Well, I would say 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:42.360 that so far, a lot of the feedback I think, yeah, 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:46.400 gets a lot of people at set because they don't 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:48.760 like them. I can tell you that from my Twitter mentions, 0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:54.040 you're going to turn for the worst today. Um. But 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:58.719 I think my my motivation or making this argument and 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.040 writing this, and I think about this for a long time, 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:05.360 is that we do need something more radical if there's 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.240 going to be real change, because there is a lot 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:11.800 of you know, millionaise or what I mean, very well 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.320 meaning acting in the area and it doesn't doesn't do 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:19.680 anything right. Um. I think it's also rethinking of what 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:22.720 the front of action or quotas are for I think 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:25.040 some people I talked is that we need to really 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:30.440 think it as this way of counteracting well, not as 0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:34.640 like this representation challenge. Right, And as you said, a 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.920 lot of well meaning and there's a lot of committees 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:39.440 and conversations, but we've been talking for a long time, 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.120 and so maybe we need to rethink the process and 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:42.920 maybe we need something that's a little bit more aggressive. 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.080 I gotta just say it, the cover man, what's wrong 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:49.200 with this picture? It just hits you really, you know quickly. Yeah, 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.520 the picture and the words together are really just remarkable. 0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:54.480 Thank you so much. Rebecca Greenfield leading all of our 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:58.440 diversity coverage managing diversity team here at Bloomberg. She joined us, 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:03.040 as did Joel Webber, the editor of the magazine. You're 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.840 listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.920 Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's talk a little 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:16.000 Business Week economics now, because it's Thursday, and now we 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.960 have gotten unfortunately all too used to, are all too 0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:25.040 accustomed to, maybe I should say, uh, seeing jaw dropping 0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:27.920 numbers every single Thursday when it comes to jobless claims. 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.240 Today was no exception, Let's understand that in the broader 0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:34.240 context of the economy what the Fed has been saying, 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.200 and much more. With Milton as Roddy, he is the 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:42.480 chief economist for Vested. Johnius on the phone from Glenn Mills, Pennsylvania. Milton, really, 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.240 nice to have you here with Carolin myself. Pleasure to 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:48.680 be on. So let's start with the news of the day, 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:52.840 which is those jobless claims, surprising too many that it 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:56.480 remains at that high level. What did you read into it, 0:15:56.640 --> 0:16:01.160 especially as you got into the details. Yeah, well, mostly 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:04.440 what I got out of the numbers were that some 0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:07.800 of the optimism that was implicit in the jobs report 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:11.880 earlier this month in the retail sales overstated the rebounding 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.200 the economy. There are still a lot of people losing 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:18.560 their job. One and a half million applied to unemployment insurance. 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.920 That says to me that J. Powell, when he testified 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:24.680 and said this is going to be a little longer, 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:29.640 a little odder than you think, was correct. Well, you know, Milton, 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:31.800 one of the things I was excited about having you 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.640 on is that you have been in the world of 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.000 finance and economics for I don't know forty years You've 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:41.920 seen a lot of cycles, um, and a lot of 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:47.080 different crises. So this is safe to say unlike any other, right, 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.080 because there's a logical part of us that understands what 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:51.200 the economy shutting down, the impact is going to have 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:55.000 on activity, on the labor market and so on. UM. 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.080 I'm just curious how you see it though. Coming up 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:00.720 on the other side, I think there was hopeful expectations 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:02.960 it was v and we bounce back real quickly. But 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:05.760 it's not that easy. Especially we have so many guests 0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:07.359 that come on and say, listen, we're still in a 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:11.520 health crisis and we still have a lot of problems. Well, 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.439 there's the uncertainty about what's going to happen with the virus, 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.080 and I'm not equipped to do that, uh, to talk 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:19.879 about how the virus will go. But I think the 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:22.399 issue here, and it's one thing that Powell tried to 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:26.560 explain to his testimony before Congress and his press conference 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:30.600 after the f O m C meetings, is that there 0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:33.000 was a lot of damage done. It was fong to 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:35.600 say we're gonna shut down, and everyone gets pent up demand, 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:38.880 everyone wants to get out. But a lot of businesses closed, 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.680 a lot of people will laid off. Yes, these people 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:44.280 will be called back, those people who have the capital, 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.720 all the loans to bridge the gap. But there has 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.480 been a real rise in bankruptcies. Those firms are never 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:53.159 coming back, and I think that that is going to 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:55.240 make this a lot longer. So we may see a 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.720 bounce here, uh the v that everyone's talking about, But 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:00.360 then we're going to deal with the leg can see 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:05.440 these bankruptcies, the legacy of downsizing that did occur, more 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:11.040 permanent downsizing, the just bridging the lockdowns, and it'll the 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:16.480 economy will slow after a happy looking the Yeah, it's 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.720 interesting you say that. And I was telling Carol a 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:21.760 little bit about a conversation I had just while I 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:23.680 was late to the show is catching up with Henry 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:26.679 Kravis over at KKR, and he was talking about the 0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:29.840 CEO is that he's talking to to a person are 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.199 basically saying, my workforce is going to be smaller on 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.320 the other side of this, And even if it's not 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.040 every CEO, if it's a lot of CEOs who are 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.600 saying that, that has a profound effect on the labor 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:47.880 force going forward and ultimately the broader economy. It does. 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:52.040 And we had wonderful employment numbers before the shutdowns and 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.760 the lockdowns. I'm not saying we should have avoided them. 0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:57.679 That's a separate issue, but we're not getting back to 0:18:57.760 --> 0:19:01.240 that for a long time. And I rest the bankruptcies 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.840 because the people who suffered most. J. Pale made a 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:07.920 point of this to the people who suffered most in 0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:13.080 in this these lockdowns, were they undercapitalized small businesses, particularly 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:17.560 in the less advantaged sectors of this economy. And they're gone, 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:20.280 they're they've gone bankrupt. They if they're never coming back. 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.600 So what does it look like then on the other side, Um, 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.880 we've had you know, various economists and even our Bloomberg 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.880 Economics team Milton come on and talk to us and say, 0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:32.359 you know, it's going to be several years before we 0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:36.560 get back to where we were pre COVID nineteen. Well, 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:38.239 I think it will be a long time, and I 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.000 think several years is probably a good estimate. What I 0:19:41.080 --> 0:19:43.200 think is going to be deceptive here is that we're 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:45.720 going to have this bounce. There's a lot of people 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.000 who spent less money and who have incomes because they 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:52.000 could work from home or they were essential workers and 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:54.480 did not have an opportunity to spend money, so you'll 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.000 have this bouncing the economy. They want to get out, 0:19:57.040 --> 0:19:58.879 They want to have a restaurant meal, they want to 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:01.240 see people in the bar. They want to buy clothes 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.800 other than the pajamas they water a month and a half. 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:08.080 They are just for the record, Jason and I have 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:11.720 been dressed every day doing our show in real clothes, 0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:14.320 not in our pajamas, I will think, partially because we 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:16.719 have to look at each other on video conference because 0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:19.480 who's to say what would happen if there were no Ever, however, 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:24.119 our morning planning call, yeah, exactly, and some of the 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:26.960 zoom calls I've done, I've decided on the last clean 0:20:27.000 --> 0:20:29.960 shaven man in America. I think that's right. I think 0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:32.119 you're I think you're right about that. But it's but 0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:34.440 it's it's going to be different, and it's gonna be 0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:37.439 really tough, and it's going to be lasting for for 0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:41.400 many individuals and many small businesses, as you said it is. 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:43.919 And I think the minority groups in this country, not 0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:47.960 because of racism, just because of the undercapitalization in those 0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:50.400 sectors of the economy are going to take the longest 0:20:50.440 --> 0:20:54.280 time coming back. We had best figures for Hispanic workers, 0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:58.960 best figures for Black workers. Full of the shutdowns, it'll 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:00.560 be a long hole for and it will be a 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:03.800 long hole for everybody. We will have this bounce because 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:06.360 people do want to get out, but that will fade 0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:09.359 by the fourth quarter, right, because when we have a 0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:11.560 really tight labor market, that's when the fringes of the 0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:15.240 labor force rights really start to benefit. And they did. 0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.600 We had a very tight labor market and they were benefiting, 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:20.640 but now it's going to be a long road back, 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:24.240 especially to them. Well, and as as you're alluding to, Milton, 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:27.119 I think you know there are some structural issues. We 0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:30.040 talked about them with the CEO of Lendustry yesterday that 0:21:30.119 --> 0:21:33.840 relate to a lot of minority on businesses where if 0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:36.640 they are they may not even be able to survive 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:38.480 to the other side. And there are a lot of 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.720 applications for that as well, Milton. As Roddie, thank you 0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:44.080 so much. Really nice to catch up. The chief economists 0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:47.359 for Vested joining us on the phone from Pennsylvania. Carol, 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:49.720 do you think Ari and Paul have like peee pajamas. 0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:53.879 I don't think so. Ari's in the office. Oh that's right, 0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:57.480 So he's been dressed when he's doing that morning call Paul. Paul, Yeah, Paul, 0:21:58.760 --> 0:22:06.200 maybe could be bunny slippers, little bunny slippers. Yeah, thank 0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:08.760 you are sorry, just confirmed that he isn't. He is 0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:11.680 dressed in our control room. So no, I think there's 0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:14.359 an n C. No comment from Paul. Paul Brandon's in shorts. 0:22:14.680 --> 0:22:19.480 Oh that checks out. That checks out. This is Bloomberg 0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:23.960 Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. 0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:28.639 I like the understated headlines sometimes that Bloomberg Intelligence have. 0:22:29.480 --> 0:22:33.480 Carnival's second quarter results show recovery risks amid cost cuts. 0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:37.560 That is true. Uh, this is a story that we've 0:22:37.600 --> 0:22:39.840 been following very closely. Business Week has been following you 0:22:39.920 --> 0:22:42.920 very closely. Brian Egger, senior Gaming and lodging analysts for 0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:45.640 Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us on the phone from New Jersey. Brian, 0:22:45.680 --> 0:22:47.600 you know, I'm just teasing. I love your research of 0:22:49.320 --> 0:22:52.800 so don't where'd you like? Wait? What? Oh my god? 0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:55.840 What's going on? I mean, this isn't. This is a 0:22:55.920 --> 0:23:00.920 remarkable story in many cases, but by a numbers help 0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:05.119 us understand what's going on at Carnival. Sure, so Carnival basically, 0:23:05.240 --> 0:23:09.480 as did other cruise operators, suspended sailing operations on their 0:23:09.480 --> 0:23:13.240 fleetback in mid mid March. They've been basically in a 0:23:13.280 --> 0:23:16.399