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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out show. I'm sitting up to cash stop.

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Speaker 4: That's well. See, most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 4: they go to win.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible, big bank small, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabar you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybound.

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Speaker 5: NFL Week number six is here, and today I'm joined

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Speaker 5: by one of the most accurate rankers in the game,

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Speaker 5: Sean Kerner. I am joined by Touchdown Savant Jill Gallant,

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Speaker 5: and we are going to give you touchdown bets for

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Speaker 5: every game on the Sunday's late and the Monday's late,

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Speaker 5: including the early Denver Jets game out in London.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna start with that, But Cournel, I'll come to

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Speaker 1: you in a second.

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Speaker 5: But Jill, how are you feeling heading into this week?

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Speaker 5: You know you always ask these thoughtful questions when we're

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Speaker 5: doing Action Playbook lives, So you know, how does your

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Speaker 5: touchdown process kind of change as we get into you know,

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Speaker 5: week six?

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Speaker 2: Here?

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Speaker 1: Now we're like a third of the season three.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you guys hit it on the head

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Speaker 3: when we talk about this in Action Playbook Live in

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Speaker 3: the intro about more data. It just only helps to

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Speaker 3: be able to determine, you know, tendencies angles that we

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Speaker 3: could find. And you know, we're in week six now.

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Speaker 3: Some of these teams they're just battered with injuries. So

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Speaker 3: now there's even more opportunity. Maybe down the depth chart

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Speaker 3: we could find some more better touchdown odds. That kind

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Speaker 3: of stuff wasn't really available to us that you know,

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Speaker 3: in week one and week two, So now where we're

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Speaker 3: at in week six, I think just there's even more

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Speaker 3: opportunity in the anytime touchdown market for all of us.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And Sean, is there anything kind of special that

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Speaker 1: you do?

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Speaker 5: I know you kind of have like a lot of

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Speaker 5: different processes, anything kind of catch your eye?

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Speaker 2: Here? Are you?

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Speaker 5: Are you buying low on guys? Are is the daity

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Speaker 5: just kind of crystallizing things?

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Speaker 1: What's going on with you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I mean we're we're in mid season form right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: so I got some BILO opportunities here. And if if

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Speaker 4: you're wondering why I have the Carson Wentz outfit here

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Speaker 4: with the Giants hat the Mac Jones jersey. I swore

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Speaker 4: to everybody that if Mac Jones came back from the

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Speaker 4: dead last Thursday Night Football and cleared his passive tap prop,

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Speaker 4: I would buy a mac Jones jersey and I would

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Speaker 4: wear it as soon as it came in. So it

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Speaker 4: just came in to there. Take that.

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Speaker 2: Nobody believed me, but yeah, uh.

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Speaker 3: He's my favorite.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but that was a legendary performance by Mac last week,

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Speaker 4: so I owed it to him to buy this jersey.

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Speaker 3: So that's that.

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Speaker 2: Hence the Carson Wentz get up here.

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Speaker 5: I mean, why wouldn't they believe me? Of course, if

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Speaker 5: you're you, you want to bet that's it's just like

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Speaker 5: a free proven prove everyone wrong.

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Speaker 1: Nothing to come back.

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Speaker 4: He was at twenty I had over thirty one and

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Speaker 4: a half past teps. He was down on the ground

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Speaker 4: in pay. He already had that PCL injury heading in,

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Speaker 4: down on the ground in pain at twenty five pass

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Speaker 4: attempts and he threw what twenty four more the rest

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Speaker 4: of the game.

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Speaker 2: For them to have that win with.

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Speaker 4: You know, everybody was out legendary performance a we can

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Speaker 4: go to today. So to commemorate that again. I'm wearing

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Speaker 4: the mac jersey today.

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Speaker 1: All right, We're.

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Speaker 5: Gonna get into the NFL Week six slate and we'll

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Speaker 5: kind of alternate, giving our favorite players from each game.

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Speaker 1: To find the end zone.

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Speaker 5: We will also get some part ways set up for

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Speaker 5: Sunday and Monday Night Football that will track any Partly

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Speaker 5: Express account on the Action Network app, so be sure

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Speaker 5: you had that downloaded and be sure you are following

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Speaker 5: that account as well.

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Speaker 1: Before we get into all these.

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Speaker 5: Touchdowns, I will toss it over to myself for a

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Speaker 5: word from our sponsor. The Action Network podcast is sponsored

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Speaker 5: by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings, we'd like to

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Speaker 5: tell you that the next great touchdown is coming.

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Speaker 1: The crown is yours, all right, man.

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Speaker 5: Probably the least and most exciting thing that happens in

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Speaker 5: the middle of the NFL season every year when you

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Speaker 5: work in this industry is there's football super early, but

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Speaker 5: you got to get up and really be on top

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Speaker 5: of rankings. And this week we have, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 5: the Broncos and the Jets, Jets the loan.

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Speaker 1: Win with team jail.

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Speaker 5: Where you're looking in Jets Broncos, I think, did we

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Speaker 5: just have this last year?

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Speaker 1: I feel like deja vu?

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, well, the one player who was not

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Speaker 3: involved in that game was Justin Fields, and I think

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Speaker 3: we have to go right back to him on the

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Speaker 3: Jets side. I don't really I think there's much else

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Speaker 3: that you can really expect of him other than to scramble.

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Speaker 3: Now he's got three rushing touchdowns this year. Didn't score

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Speaker 3: last week versus the Cowboys, but it wasn't really a

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Speaker 3: good matchup for him to scramble, mainly because the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: really neutralize that they play a ton of zone, whereas

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Speaker 3: on the flip side, the Broncos this week play the

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Speaker 3: most man coverage in the NFL, which obviously just leads

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Speaker 3: to more quarterback rushing upside. And this year, if you

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Speaker 3: look at who Fields is scored against, it's versus teams

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Speaker 3: that play more man coverage Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins. Also

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Speaker 3: our guy Nick Giffen, he loves this bet. He gave

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Speaker 3: me this nugget to give out on the show fields.

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Speaker 3: His only face man defense on sixteen point three percent

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Speaker 3: of his dropbacks. Well, his adjusted net yards per dropback

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Speaker 3: are nearly triple when he faces man compared to zone.

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Speaker 3: So now we've got the Denver Broncos who play it

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Speaker 3: on a man coverage. So I love the upside on

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Speaker 3: justin fields to rush for a touchdown on this defense

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Speaker 3: on the Broncos side. This guy, whenever I bet him,

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Speaker 3: it never feels good. I will say this, but it's

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Speaker 3: Evan Angram just because of the history that we've had

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Speaker 3: with him with New York and the Jacksonville. But I

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Speaker 3: think that this is a system in Denver where he's

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Speaker 3: going to be used even more as a pass catching threat.

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Speaker 3: Because he scored last week versus the Eagles. It looks

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Speaker 3: to be fully recovered from that calf injury that came

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Speaker 3: back in Week two. He's second on the team in

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Speaker 3: targets in both games since he came back, and the

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Speaker 3: Jets have been awful versus tight ends. This year, they

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Speaker 3: ranked last in defensive d V A way versus the position.

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Speaker 3: They've given up four touchdowns to tight ends in just

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Speaker 3: the last two games, two to Darren Waller, two to

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Speaker 3: Jake Ferguson, And just rereading some of the coach speak,

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Speaker 3: Sean Payton talked about that game, but also as Evan

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Speaker 3: Ingram wanting him to play him in kind of that

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Speaker 3: more joker, you know, Jimmy Graham role in this offense,

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Speaker 3: and I mean to bring anybody back to what Jimmy

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Speaker 3: Graham was in that offense, just a touchdown machine. Now,

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to put him in that same realm.

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Speaker 3: But Evan Ingram right now is around plus three seventy five.

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Speaker 3: So that's the guy who I'm looking at on the

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Speaker 3: Broncos side, and Justin Fields on the Jets side.

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Speaker 5: Oh Man, Evan Ingram, Turner already knows what I would

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Speaker 5: have to do to be Evan Ingram. I would have

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Speaker 5: to also hedge by betting Adam Trautman and that you

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Speaker 5: were longer odds, because I'm telling you it's just never

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Speaker 5: the tight end you think with Sean Payton period.

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Speaker 3: And if I could nominate a guy who will be

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Speaker 3: the Ady Mitchell or Amari demccardo Ingram I feel like

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Speaker 3: is gonna maybe wow kick me and kick me in

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Speaker 3: the behind on that one. This is hardy not to

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Speaker 3: kind of I'll take the under on that.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna say it's not one of those for another

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Speaker 5: at least four, four or five years, I say.

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Speaker 2: No years.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, It's it's so weird how common it actually is.

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Speaker 4: You would think that, like everybody would just collectively go,

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Speaker 4: let's stop doing that. But you're just in the moment.

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Speaker 4: Sometimes you don't know where the goal line is. I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna take under. You're giving me even odds.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I know happened what three times in

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Speaker 5: the past two seasons with that like an out liar.

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Speaker 4: So I don't know it's team this week. Yeah, every

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Speaker 4: team has to have a meeting about it this week.

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Speaker 4: So I bet it'll cool off, hopefully the next few weeks.

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Speaker 4: But I bet I bet we see another one of

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Speaker 4: the next four years.

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Speaker 1: He's never learned that. I mean, that's just worst. I

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Speaker 1: can't like.

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Speaker 3: Oh Man, all right.

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Speaker 5: Uh cowboys at the Carolina Panthers and gotta go with

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Speaker 5: Ryan Flinoy for the Cowboys. I know there's still some

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Speaker 5: uncertainty is what his role is gonna be. I expect

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Speaker 5: Ceedee Lamb and Comante Turpin to be held out or

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Speaker 5: severely limited for this week. That's what they've kind of

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Speaker 5: been talking up. So I think Illinoy now kind of

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Speaker 5: put himself in a position where he may even jump.

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Speaker 5: Jay went Tobert for snaps. I mean, he was just

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Speaker 5: so good, had over one hundred yards in the first

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Speaker 5: half alone. Tolbert was still taking certain situational snaps over Flinoy,

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Speaker 5: like red zone, but you know he's run I think

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Speaker 5: twenty four routes and zero catches on three targets in

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Speaker 5: the red zone for Tobert this year. He's been good

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Speaker 5: in the past there, but I wouldn't be surprised if

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Speaker 5: you see things kind of flip here. So I just

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Speaker 5: want to get ahead of this. And you're also getting

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Speaker 5: potentially a rush attempt or too, which is always helpful

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Speaker 5: in these touchdown markets because a lot of times those

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Speaker 5: are designed to kind of spring a guy into the

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Speaker 5: end zone. So like Flanoy on the Cowboys side, and

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Speaker 5: then for the Panthers similarly Murky, but with this.

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Speaker 1: Guy, I think if he does, if he's.

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Speaker 5: For some reason not gonna be one of the top

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Speaker 5: five wide receivers, which I've kind of played with this

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Speaker 5: in my head. I think he's probably just gonna be

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Speaker 5: a healthy scratch, and that's Jimmy Horn Junior.

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Speaker 1: But he's eight to one, and.

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Speaker 5: I want to get ahead of this because I think

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Speaker 5: there's a possibility that even if Jalen Kober is activated

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Speaker 5: and comes back, that they could potentially cut like a

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Speaker 5: guy like Renfro or deactivate him because we saw them

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Speaker 5: cut him early to start the year and they said

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Speaker 5: they want to give Horn a bigger role now after

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Speaker 5: his play last week, you know, he's one of the

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Speaker 5: few guys on that team with speed.

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Speaker 1: They were giving him rush attempts.

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Speaker 5: So another guy that I expect to be active as

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Speaker 5: the fifth receiver getting about twenty five thirty percent of

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Speaker 5: the of the dropbacks, just kind of like a Bryson

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Speaker 5: Tremaine type and some gadget some gadget books. So like

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Speaker 5: Horn at eight to one and Fllinoy at three to one.

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Speaker 5: This is truly an old school shot shout drug guy

225
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Speaker 5: now here at the company more. But Chad Millman probably

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Speaker 5: doesn't know who either of these guys are. Jill, No, Kurner,

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Speaker 5: you're up next. Who are you looking at here?

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Speaker 4: I don't know if everybody knows who this guy is,

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Speaker 4: but I'm going to go with Allie Gordon for the

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Speaker 4: Dolphins at plus four forty, six foot two two twenty

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Speaker 4: five pound rookie running back.

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Speaker 2: You know, h Han really isn't a power back.

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Speaker 4: So heading in this season, I thought it'd be you know,

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Speaker 4: Gordon or Alexander Madison, you know, competing to be the

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Speaker 4: goal line back. And then once you know, Madison suffered

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Speaker 4: that season ending injury in preseason, I kind of figured

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Speaker 4: it was Gordon's job to lose, and you wouldn't know

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Speaker 4: it because it's the Dolphins and they've only had three

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Speaker 4: rush attempts inside the five guard line this year, but

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Speaker 4: two of those were from Gordon, so I think it's

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Speaker 4: safe to say he's.

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Speaker 2: The preferred goal line back.

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Speaker 4: He scored on one of those rush attempts, and usually,

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Speaker 4: you know, go lin back shouldn't be priced over plus

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Speaker 4: four hundred, no matter how horrible the offense is. So

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Gordon here on the Dolphins side

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Speaker 4: at plus four to forty, and then on the Chargers side,

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Speaker 4: I really wanted to go back to the well on

249
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Speaker 4: Miranda Gatson the second, but he's plus four hundred and

250
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Speaker 4: Will Disley's back this week, so Raybond, I know, we've

251
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Speaker 4: been talking about this really unsure how this tight end

252
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Speaker 4: room's gonna kind of sort itself out with Disley back

253
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Speaker 4: in action. So I'm gonna take a week off of

254
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Speaker 4: Gatson scoring here, and who knows, maybe he'll be the

255
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Speaker 4: one that drops the ball on the inch line this week,

256
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Speaker 4: so good thing. I'm not betting on him if that's

257
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Speaker 4: the case. But I'm going to go with Ladd McConkey

258
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Speaker 4: here at plus two ten. You know, Lad's been hurt

259
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Speaker 4: a ton this year with Quinton Johnson's mega breakout season,

260
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Speaker 4: and you know Quinn Johnson's always been kind of Herbert's

261
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Speaker 4: preferred target in the end zone anyway, but also having

262
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Speaker 4: Keenan Allen back in the mix, you know, Herbert still

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Speaker 4: loves targeting him. You know, the Ladd's sometimes the third

264
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Speaker 4: target in this wide receiver room, which is crazy because

265
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Speaker 4: he's still one of the best, you know, up and

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Speaker 4: coming receivers out there. He's in year two, so I

267
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Speaker 4: think it's it's a potential bi lo spot for him

268
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Speaker 4: at plus two ten. And this is a matchup against

269
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Speaker 4: the Dolphins where you know the Chargers they lost Amaron

270
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Speaker 4: Hampton to the ir so he's out four plus games.

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Speaker 4: They might be able to throw three or four touchdowns here,

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Speaker 4: so everybody might get a touchdown. So I like getting

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Speaker 4: Lad here at plus two ten. I just think it's

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Speaker 4: a good time. It's kind of by low on him here.

275
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Speaker 5: Yeah, and not to mention, Lad got a punt return

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Speaker 5: touchdown called back, and the Dolphins special teams has not

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Speaker 5: been great either. Think of that game against the Patriots

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Speaker 5: where they gave up a turn touchdown. So yeah, a

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Speaker 5: lot of ways for the lad to get get it

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Speaker 5: done here for us. All right, who got up next?

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Speaker 2: Jill?

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Speaker 5: I'm going to you Seahawks at Jags. This should be

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Speaker 5: a good game, a lot better game than maybe some

284
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Speaker 5: people thought heading into the year. What are you looking

285
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Speaker 5: at in this spot?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I locked this in Tuesday morning pretty much as

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Speaker 3: soon as I watched Kareem Hunt run for two touchdowns

288
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Speaker 3: on the Jags defense, I was like, Yep, that's who

289
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Speaker 3: I'm getting the next game. And that's our guy, Zach

290
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Speaker 3: Sharpine here right now. He's around plus two hundred touchdown

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Speaker 3: in three or four games. I think one thing that

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Speaker 3: I'm really surprised with Charbo. I know, Kerner, you wouldn't be,

293
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Speaker 3: but I guess I was the more I dug into

294
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Speaker 3: his data, just that Kenneth Walker is only averaging like

295
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Speaker 3: one point two more carries a game. Like right now,

296
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Speaker 3: it is really a running back by committee in the

297
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Speaker 3: in Seattle, and despite playing one less game, he still

298
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Speaker 3: leads the Seahawks and red zone carries and nearly doubles

299
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Speaker 3: Walker in touches inside the ten yard line and the

300
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Speaker 3: five yard line. So I think it's just a great

301
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Speaker 3: matchup for I mean, I think both of them can score,

302
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Speaker 3: but I just think when they get inside the ten

303
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Speaker 3: yard line, they have shown that they're going to give

304
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Speaker 3: Sharbo the ball over Kenneth Walker. So that's who I

305
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:23,040
Speaker 3: like on the Seattle side. On the Jag side, naturally,

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00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:28,240
Speaker 3: once we got rid of the Brenton Strange issue here

307
00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,960
Speaker 3: that happened over the weekend with him and the ir Sitch,

308
00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,360
Speaker 3: I think we've got to go with Hunter Long. He's

309
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Speaker 3: around now with like plus four hundred Seahawks run defense.

310
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Speaker 3: They've just been really tough, So I'm not going to

311
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Speaker 3: talk about how I like Travis at ten or Trevor

312
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:47,200
Speaker 3: Lawrence again to score these touchdowns, because really the passing

313
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Speaker 3: defense has actually been where the Seahawks I think have struggled,

314
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 3: mostly especially with some of the injuries that they've had.

315
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Speaker 3: They've given up eight passing touchdowns this year, three to

316
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Speaker 3: tight ends. So right now, the backup from Brenton Strange

317
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Speaker 3: is Hunter Long and he's playing the second most snaps,

318
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Speaker 3: he's running the second most routes of any Jags tight end.

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Speaker 3: He's got two end zone targets so far so far.

320
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Speaker 3: And the the Seahawks as well their defense, they play

321
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Speaker 3: zone eighth highest rate. Long actually caught his only touchdown

322
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Speaker 3: this year against zone. So when looking at the touchdown

323
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Speaker 3: odds for this game and just the way that the

324
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Speaker 3: data points match up, you could make a case for

325
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Speaker 3: Johnny Munt at like ten to one, But I just

326
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Speaker 3: think Hunter Long when you're getting the starting tight end

327
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Speaker 3: at four to one, I still like those odds against

328
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Speaker 3: the defense that I think they can't score on. So

329
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Speaker 3: Hunter Long at four to one and Zach Sharbona at

330
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Speaker 3: two to.

331
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Speaker 1: One, Sure you got against Breton Strange, you just like

332
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Speaker 1: threw him aside. I yeah, he's that.

333
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Speaker 3: If you were on social at all all over the

334
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Speaker 3: weekend and just muted all I just say, is I

335
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Speaker 3: muted the word void. I'll just say that, yes, and.

336
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Speaker 1: Yeah you should. You should listen to the fantasy facts.

337
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Speaker 5: I think that was like a weekly pointed discussion like

338
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Speaker 5: early in the years, like oh yeah, this sharvionee UCJ.

339
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Speaker 5: He's I think he's the I think he's the ideal,

340
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Speaker 5: like he's their ideal back. Even that Walker rushing touchdown,

341
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Speaker 5: I want to say it was against the Steelers. It

342
00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,600
Speaker 5: was like a walk off third and nineteen that it

343
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,400
Speaker 5: was like an Amari Devocado touchdown.

344
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Speaker 1: Ridiculous.

345
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Speaker 5: Just say so, yeah, don't don't even feel like you

346
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:21,800
Speaker 5: gotta like it's always Charbonnade. He's always the answer to

347
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,400
Speaker 5: that question. Who's going to score in the Seattle backfields?

348
00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:29,160
Speaker 1: All right? Browns at Steelers?

349
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,840
Speaker 5: This is It doesn't look like an exciting touchdown game

350
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 5: on paper, but I do think it presents a lot

351
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:40,080
Speaker 5: of interesting opportunities. Because the Steelers are coming off this

352
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 5: by they kind of looked at some things and decided

353
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Speaker 5: they want to mean more into yards after the catch

354
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 5: and running the football and keeping Alan Rodgers, you know,

355
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 5: able to get the ball out. They also might be

356
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 5: down Calvin Austin. So I'm gonna go with Darnel Washington

357
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 5: here at nine to one, and I have to we

358
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 5: all have you know why, because he played on eighty

359
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 5: five percent of the passing snaps last week.

360
00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,639
Speaker 1: This is what Arthur Smith does. I don't think that

361
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:09,040
Speaker 1: it'll be that high this week.

362
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,119
Speaker 5: But you know, for a guy to have a sixty

363
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 5: five percent team leading route rate, you have to look

364
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 5: at him because they they just kind of been wanting

365
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:17,399
Speaker 5: to get him.

366
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Speaker 1: On the field because it's just less of a tail. Uh.

367
00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,560
Speaker 5: You know, Johnny Smith and Friar Mooths are kind of

368
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 5: skew more into just pure pass catchers, so you don't

369
00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,840
Speaker 5: they don't usually like having both of them in their

370
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 5: two tight end sets. So they're gonna play a lot

371
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 5: of two tight end sets, especially if Austin can't go

372
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 5: even three tight end sets. So Washington has a chance

373
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 5: to replicate you know, that eighty five percent passing that rate,

374
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 5: in that sixty five percent route rate, he will you know,

375
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 5: chip a couple of times and all that kind of stuff.

376
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 5: But still I think these odds are uh, not really

377
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 5: pricing in what would happen before the bye. And then

378
00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 5: for the Cleveland Browns, I'm actually gonna talk about both

379
00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:57,400
Speaker 5: of their tight ends because Fan and Junior the Steelers,

380
00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,480
Speaker 5: they buets at the highest rate in the league in

381
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:02,639
Speaker 5: the red zone. Now, we don't know if the Browns

382
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,120
Speaker 5: are gonna get in the red zone, but Dylan Gabriel

383
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 5: did give him some life against a pretty tough defense

384
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:11,440
Speaker 5: to play against in the Vikings last week, and I

385
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,720
Speaker 5: think we might end up seeing something similar play out

386
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:19,480
Speaker 5: because Fannin and Nadjoku are just the targets when teams

387
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 5: blitzed them, especially in the red zone. Fannin's touchdown last

388
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 5: week came on a red zone blitz, and then there

389
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 5: were four targets Najok who got two of them, so

390
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,320
Speaker 5: he got fifty, Fanning got another one, and then Isaiah Bond,

391
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 5: so Fannin is plus five fifty on DK and then Najok,

392
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 5: who know his production went up.

393
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,720
Speaker 1: He's got the most targets overall.

394
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,879
Speaker 5: Against the blitz this year, in or out of the

395
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,360
Speaker 5: red zone, and last week as well, five targets.

396
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 1: Against the blitz from Dylan Gabriel.

397
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,159
Speaker 5: So I just think that this is another one of

398
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 5: those spots where you could see both of these guys

399
00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:58,479
Speaker 5: potentially even catch a touchdown, So I don't mind parlaying them.

400
00:18:58,480 --> 00:18:59,679
Speaker 1: If you go Fannin and.

401
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 5: Oku, you could get a forty four to one, But individually,

402
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 5: like these bets, I show value on both of them.

403
00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 5: So hopefully this is a big, tight end touchdown game

404
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 5: and not just a horrible, you know, divisional clash that's

405
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 5: like seven to six. So with that said, Kerner, we're

406
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 5: back to you for an interesting matchup. Rams coming across

407
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 5: the country to face the reeling Baltimore Ravens, who are

408
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:26,720
Speaker 5: looking at in this spot.

409
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,240
Speaker 4: Yes, the Rams side, I'm gonna have to go with

410
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 4: Kien Williams to not score once but twice at plus

411
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,440
Speaker 4: three hundred. This is just a smash spot for Kyron,

412
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 4: who faces you know, a Ravens defense that's dealing with

413
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 4: a ton of injuries. Linebacker Roquan Smith yet to return

414
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 4: to practice. Well, I haven't seen any reports today, but

415
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 4: not looking good for him, which makes the matchup potentially

416
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,880
Speaker 4: even better for Kiren. But also Lamar Jackson has yet

417
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 4: to practice, and you know, with Cooper Rush under center

418
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 4: or Tyler Huntley, either way, just the Ravens offense won't

419
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 4: be able to put up as many points and you know,

420
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 4: put pressure on the posing offense to keep throwing. So

421
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 4: it just sets up to be a really run heavy game.

422
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 4: Script after quorum fumble last week, who knows if Sean

423
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 4: McVay is gonna let him touch the ball here, So

424
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,400
Speaker 4: Kyron could have a twenty twenty five plus carry game.

425
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 4: And he's actually scored three touchdowns through the air this year,

426
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 4: which is really crazy when you consider how often you know,

427
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 4: Stafford doesn't check down to his running backs, so he's

428
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 4: probably due for some positive touchdown regression running the ball.

429
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 4: So I just think this is a spot to bet

430
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,639
Speaker 4: on Kyron at double dong here at plus three hundred

431
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 4: and on the other side, I have no clue. I

432
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,360
Speaker 4: don't think the Ravens are going to score a touchdown.

433
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 4: I looked at defense special team.

434
00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:45,479
Speaker 3: I got them.

435
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 1: I took him on the spread, So I hope they do.

436
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: Oh Rams wins seven to three.

437
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 4: I'll root for that for you, But I was looking

438
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 4: at defense Special team at five to one.

439
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 2: I don't even like that. Again, they don't have anybody

440
00:20:58,960 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 2: healthy on defense.

441
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 4: Josh Cardy, their Rams kicker, has perfected the knuckleball kick,

442
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 4: so no one can return touchdowns on him. But I'm

443
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,920
Speaker 4: gonna go with Isaiah Likely at plus six Hunter winnd out.

444
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 4: I love goal with Likely hair, but you know, their

445
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 4: potential touchdown this week probably won't be an explosive touchdown.

446
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 4: It will probably be something you know in the red

447
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 4: zone where they're running heavier personnel with both Mark Andrews

448
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 4: and Isaiah Likely on the field. So I just think

449
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 4: Likely is more likely pun intended to be on the

450
00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 4: field when they do score. So I think getting him

451
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 4: at six to one here makes a ton of sense

452
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 4: not showing value on it if I'm being honest, But

453
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 4: if I had to pick any Raven at at price,

454
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 4: it'd be Isaiah, likelib six to one here.

455
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's there's gonna be a lot of variance in

456
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 5: this game too, because I heard Harbart saying like, we're

457
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 5: gonna we might think of changing some personnel. So this

458
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 5: is one of the spots to also watch for your

459
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 5: like like Keaton Mitchell slash.

460
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 2: We Situ.

461
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 1: I think that that might actually hit for being honest

462
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 1: if they get Patrick is.

463
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 4: Our guy Patrick Ricard finally making his season debut, because

464
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 4: if he is sign me up for fifty to one

465
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 4: or whatever.

466
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 3: I don't.

467
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 1: I don't, I don't. I don't think he actually exists.

468
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 2: I think they just a sigment, imagine.

469
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.

470
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 3: And what personal changes are they gonna do defensively, because

471
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,880
Speaker 3: it doesn't really matter, Like they're just gonna allow another

472
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: forty points again this week. Like that's the thing. I

473
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 3: don't really know what I mean.

474
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 5: Well, they made to trade Jill first of all. Second

475
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 5: of all, they added j Garner Johnson, so they did

476
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 5: make some they did make some changes.

477
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: All right, Well I'll let Justice dvo a projections.

478
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 1: Then it's gonna be like forty to seven. I'm just

479
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 1: trying to.

480
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 2: All right, Jill Ravens, Right yeah, I mean I feel.

481
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 3: The Rams do that.

482
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah yeah.

483
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 2: Last this time last week they lost to the depleted Niners.

484
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:09,719
Speaker 3: So and then a favorite, right yeap, y yeah, Cardinals

485
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: at Colts.

486
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 2: I mean this is this is like the.

487
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,160
Speaker 1: Amari Democrata revenge game. Right Yeah.

488
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, speaking of depleted, I can't

489
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 3: think of a team that is more down or defeated.

490
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,159
Speaker 3: Like obviously they're not going to be like bottom of

491
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 3: the luck rankings from Nick. But the Arizona Cardinals right

492
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 3: now it's rock bottom after last week. Yes, Giants, Browns,

493
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 3: I don't know, man, there's two games like that. I

494
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 3: think of that Panthers game where they almost cough that up,

495
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 3: and then last week it's just for me, the Cardinals

496
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 3: are just completely in. And then also Kyler Murray right

497
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 3: now missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, not sure if

498
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 3: he's going to play. So now we're probably gonna see

499
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 3: Jacoby Brissett play this week. So you know, there's zero

500
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 3: passing touchdowns probably coming from a Cardinals standpoint. So we're

501
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 3: gonna go with Michael Carter. We had him last week.

502
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 3: We're going to go back to him again. He's around

503
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 3: plus two zh five. Anything over plus two hundred, I

504
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 3: think it's fine because again again we're getting a running

505
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 3: back one at plus two hundred or better. So to

506
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 3: me in that spot, that's usually an auto bet. But

507
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 3: again scored in week five played most of the snaps.

508
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 3: Colts to their defense a little overrated on the run

509
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 3: defensive standpoint, because they've gotten out to these blowouts and

510
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 3: these teams in the second half they don't run anymore.

511
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 3: They try to throw on them. That's why they're fourth

512
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 3: in defensive DVA versus the pass, but they're sixteenth versus

513
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: the run. Now Again, a lot of this depends, like

514
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 3: if Kyler Murray is playing. I really like Michael Carter,

515
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 3: but again I'm not completely out of sorts if it's

516
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 3: Jacobe Prissett. When I went back, like even Jacoby last year,

517
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: who's never really been somebody that you would count on

518
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,640
Speaker 3: from a passing touchdown standpoint, six appearances for the Patriots

519
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 3: last season running back, one scored, and four of them

520
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 3: two passing touchdowns total in that stretch, So I don't

521
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 3: expect a lot of downfield passes or anything like efficient

522
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 3: in the red zone. I think the other thing too,

523
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 3: from a Cardinal's standpoint, they don't really play in blowouts

524
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 3: like they've kind of been. Their defense has been able

525
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:06,920
Speaker 3: to kind of keep it close, and so they haven't

526
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 3: really had any games where they're, like, you know, ten

527
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 3: points down. Everything has been a lot of neutral scripts.

528
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 3: So I just see a lot more running coming from

529
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 3: the Cardinals and Michael Carter if you can get him

530
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: at two to one. That's where we go. On the

531
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 3: Colt side, though, I think it's Josh Downs turn to

532
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 3: score a touchdown this week. The Cardinals defense has actually

533
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 3: been pretty good against the run, not saying that Jonathan

534
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: Taylor won't score, but just they're going to make it

535
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: a little more difficult. But their pass defense just very suspect.

536
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 3: A lot of zone coverage, a lot of Cover three

537
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 3: downs leads the Colts, and targets per Rent run and

538
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 3: yards per Rent run versus his own defenses. He's seeing

539
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 3: a higher target share win facing Cover three and Alex

540
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 3: Pearce is expected back. Did see a full practice from

541
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 3: him both on Wednesday and Thursday back from the concussion.

542
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,480
Speaker 3: And if that's the case, then you're not going to

543
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 3: probably see much of a Donny Mitchell or Ashton Doolan.

544
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 3: So that means that Josh Downs will probably swallow up

545
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 3: a little bit more of those snaps. So that is

546
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 3: who I like, Josh Downs to get the first touchdown

547
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: of the season against the Cardinals defense and Michael Carter

548
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 3: to keep the good vibes going for the Cardinals and

549
00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 3: hang on to the ball as he crosses the goal line.

550
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: Anybody con is the end of the bus?

551
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 3: I like, is the problem?

552
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 1: I was holding it all together?

553
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 5: Yeah?

554
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 4: Is anybody interested in a de Mercado eighty Mitchell touchdown

555
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 4: parlay in this game. This is the uh multi celebratory

556
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 4: on principle better. Yes, I look, it's twenty four to one.

557
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:33,920
Speaker 4: It probably needs to be two hundred and one for

558
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 4: me to consider it, but.

559
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 3: I think to score.

560
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know this is that you have to do

561
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 5: this here like this is just the You don't have

562
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,360
Speaker 5: to tell anybody who did, but especially anyone who bet

563
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 5: on those guys last week. Whatever, yeah, you got you

564
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 5: gotta do. You're gonna especially if one scores.

565
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 4: Gannon had to apologize like he can't bench the mccado

566
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 4: now after what happened, he got fined. He almost has

567
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 4: to give the murcatto more work here. Pierce looks like

568
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 4: he's going to return. So this is when aighty Mitchell

569
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 4: scores when I'm not on him. So yeah, I would

570
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 4: do it at twenty four to one.

571
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: Sign me up.

572
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 3: I put over undrawn total snaps played at twenty four

573
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: between those two before.

574
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 2: There. I'm hammering on that.

575
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 5: All right, all right, I could kind of join you guys.

576
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 5: I think it was the Action playbook show and not

577
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 5: this show. But Ashton doing also got a touchdown calling back,

578
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 5: so it's just yeah, so this is partly all three

579
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 5: of those guys together because AWD Pearce is back and

580
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:40,159
Speaker 5: we'll just catch all the long touchdowns. Yeah, but honestly,

581
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 5: that's usually the answer. It's just usually Avid Piers, Are

582
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 5: we kidding?

583
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 4: All? Right?

584
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 5: Patriots at Saints and I'm going right back to this

585
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 5: guy because he just disappeared last week. I don't know

586
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 5: where he was, but I wanted to score a touchdown.

587
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 5: I don't think you got target he was. He was

588
00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,120
Speaker 5: like a Cardio King and I was Austin Hooper. I'm

589
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 5: going back to him at plus seven fifty. Underlying metrics

590
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 5: in terms of the usage, still exactly where we want

591
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 5: him to be. The Patriots have kind of shifted to

592
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 5: more of a heavy personnel team. You know, Mac Collins

593
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 5: and Pop Douglas just aren't getting as many snaps, and

594
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 5: Kyle Williams isn't making up the difference either, So I

595
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 5: think this continues. The Saints have been a bit vulnerable

596
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 5: to opposing tight ends, and this is always when I

597
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 5: want to, you know, not be scared to come back

598
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 5: to a guy when he's like, you know, looked like

599
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 5: a good bet and then he's coming off like a

600
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,719
Speaker 5: complete shutout, just no catches.

601
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: You don't. You gotta look all over the box score, you.

602
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 5: Can't find him. This is the time to bet on

603
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 5: Austin Hooper, just like she was talking about with a

604
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 5: D and Amaris. So on the other side, this is

605
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 5: gonna be a little bit spicier. Devone veiway at seventeen

606
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 5: to one. That's too high because last week we started

607
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 5: to see them, you know, cut down on Brandon Cook's

608
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 5: playing time, and I did expect that to eventually happen,

609
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 5: especially with you know, Camara kind of getting the same treatment.

610
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 5: Those guys just don't really fit on the team if

611
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 5: they're you know, gonna be a one and four Spencer

612
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 5: Ratler team. So I think Veyley continues to kind of

613
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 5: trend up. Remember this is the guy that they traded for,

614
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 5: uh and he was already taking the few steps that

615
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 5: he was taking away from Cooks. Tended to happen in

616
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 5: the red zone, So would not be surprised if Vayley

617
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 5: was able to get into the end zone here and

618
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 5: his Patriot offense. It's it's proved to be good enough

619
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 5: to kind of push the issue here, and it is

620
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 5: an indoor game.

621
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:33,959
Speaker 1: So I like Veayway.

622
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 5: I know a first first guy went to look at

623
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 5: was Taysom Hill and he was like, oh, probably triple

624
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 5: what his odds.

625
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: Should have been hes two hundred or so.

626
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 5: I'm like what, Yeah, he played like seven snaps like

627
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 5: oh man, So I wanted to take Taysum, but the

628
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 5: value is on de von Vayway, which is a lot

629
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 5: less fun unless he hits. And that's why we do it.

630
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 5: So seventeen one for Biley, seven and a half to

631
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 5: one for Hooper is.

632
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: Valle gonna be a full unit from you in the app?

633
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 5: Everything is yeah, every The only ever reason I didn't

634
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 5: Donovan was that it was an actual head Yeah. I

635
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 5: was like, oh wait, I've been so hard on Carter's

636
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 5: whole weekend, and it's I started to hear like it's

637
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 5: very possible it's a hot hand approach. So I'm like, oh, well,

638
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 5: if it's a hot hand approach, it's not like Carter's

639
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 5: more than two to one. I think I got him

640
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 5: on like plus one fifty.

641
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: So I had to kind of do it that way.

642
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm just gonna I'm just gonna let it.

643
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: Rip was gonna let her it.

644
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 2: Why it's crazy, he's seventeen to one.

645
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, and there's a wide range of odds for

646
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 3: ble two right now, guys like, right now, twelve to

647
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 3: one I'm seeing. I'm seeing a seventeen to one right now.

648
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 3: On another spot, I'm seeing twenty to one right now

649
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 3: for Devon Bailey. So again, just lots of opportunity if

650
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 3: you think Devon Bailey's is. And the other thing too

651
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: with the Patriots defense. You look at the touchdowns they've

652
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 3: given up over the last few weeks, a lot of

653
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: them to the slot. You know, you will tremble and

654
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 3: Evan even Keyon Coleman was lining up in the slot,

655
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 3: in and out on those spots. So again, that's where

656
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 3: Bailey usually makes his money, right is in the slot

657
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 3: over the middle.

658
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 4: So oh real quick, Gray about housekeeping. Note, we falsely

659
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 4: gave Austin Hooper the cardio King of War last week.

660
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 4: It was actually somebody on Monday night, and it might

661
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 4: have been the guy that you were thinking it was.

662
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 2: Noah Gray.

663
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 4: We had twenty three routes without a target, so he

664
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 4: had seven more routes than Hooper. I feel like Warren

665
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 4: Beatty when he gave out Moonlight for Best Picture that

666
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 4: was incorrect. Noah Gray was the cardio king. Austin Hooper

667
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 4: just had a normal zero target game. It was Noah Gray.

668
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 5: Yes, I usually just manually entered the routes run like

669
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 5: those games. So yeah, yeah, I didn't realize it. But

670
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 5: did he not get a touchdown callback or something? I

671
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 5: feel like I saw him catch a pass and then yeah,

672
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 5: that had to be what happened, right, Maybe I'm thinking

673
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 5: about before.

674
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 2: That wouldn't count as a target anyway.

675
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 1: But yeah, oh great, remember when he used to be

676
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: like relevant?

677
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, two games last year with two touchdowns and back

678
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 3: to back weeks.

679
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 5: I guess they'll probably they'll probably get to that at

680
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 5: some point. They got a lot, got a lot going

681
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 5: on now, they got they got they finally our receivers.

682
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 5: So it's clicking up in Kansas City. But far less

683
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 5: intriguing game than the Chiefs game that we'll talk about in.

684
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:35,239
Speaker 1: A bit is Titans at Raiders Kerner we got.

685
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 4: I think this game's intriguing from a you know, touchdown

686
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 4: value standpoint. Uh And for the Titan side, I know

687
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 4: you like this, garybon Gunner. Helmyeah plus eight fifty sign

688
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 4: me up for this because he's you know, their fourth

689
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 4: round pick. He's been playing behind Chig Aquonko all season long,

690
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 4: but last week he saw a huge jump in terms

691
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 4: of usage, with the season high fifteen fifty percent routes

692
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 4: run rate, just a tad lower than Chigg, who had

693
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 4: a sixty percent routes run rate.

694
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 2: But you know that's telling that they're starting to ramp

695
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: up his usage. And they won. So whenever you have

696
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: a losing team like this win and they you.

697
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: Know, they see what they did differently, maybe they'll see, ah,

698
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,239
Speaker 4: maybe we should be running Gunnerhill a little bit more,

699
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 4: who had his best game by far, four catches thirty four.

700
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 2: Yards, so his stocks going up.

701
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 4: I think it's a good time to buy in at

702
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 4: pause fifty before he does score his first touchdown, which

703
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 4: could be, you know, in the next few weeks. Here

704
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 4: with this usage, you just can't bank on that many

705
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 4: touchdowns from the Titans at this point, but Titans raiders,

706
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 4: who the hell knows.

707
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 2: So give me Gunner Helmet plus a fifty.

708
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 4: On the other side, I'm going to go with another

709
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 4: tight end here, Michael Mayer at plus three ten. It

710
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 4: looks like he's been cleared to return from his concussion

711
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 4: He's missed the last couple of games, which is unfortunate

712
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,479
Speaker 4: because Bowers miss last week, and it sounds like Bowers

713
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 4: is more week to week. I'd be shocked if he

714
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 4: suits up this week. So we could see Michael Mayor

715
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 4: be the lead tight end for the Raiders. I don't

716
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 4: see why he wouldn't be. You know, he's a very

717
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 4: high end tight end prospect. His dynasty stock just took

718
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 4: a hit just because you know, Brock Bowers ended up

719
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 4: in Vegas. But you know he would start for a

720
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 4: handful of teams easily, So this is a real good

721
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 4: spot for him to step up be the lead tight end.

722
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 4: So I like Michael Mayer plus three ten and like

723
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 4: I was saying, Chip Kelly allowed Ashton Genty to go

724
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 4: back to his Michael Myers stands the last couple of weeks.

725
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: So give you a you know, Halloween.

726
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 4: Parlay with Michael Mayer and Michael Myers Ashton Genty. I

727
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 4: don't know if those out to pay, but nice way

728
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,919
Speaker 4: to kind of boost up Ashton Gentsy's touchdown on odds.

729
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,760
Speaker 4: But I'm sure minus in this spot with a Michael

730
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 4: Mayor Michael Myers a little combo.

731
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, yeah, I think I, like, you know,

732
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 5: the Gente call adding him to that, because the Titans,

733
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 5: they should have given up another touchdown that was the

734
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 5: beemercatowin they would have had a ten five games for

735
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 5: running back.

736
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 1: As it stands they have nine. So yeah, Genti's probably

737
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 1: as as good a bet as ever to get in.

738
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 5: But yeah, like the Mayor call, you just don't know

739
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 5: what the hell is happening in this Raider tight end

740
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,480
Speaker 5: room half the time. And I mean it's just been

741
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 5: there's just been so many odd things with the offense

742
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 5: in general, and you know, red zone possessions, cut short,

743
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 5: ridiculous turnovers. So I do think the Raiders at some

744
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:28,839
Speaker 5: point are gonna have some touchdown regression. I would think

745
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 5: it would be this week, but I've thought that for

746
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 5: a couple of weeks now, so I'm just gonna kind

747
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,959
Speaker 5: of lay off that, Jill.

748
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: I'm excited about this game.

749
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 2: I know it.

750
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 5: You know, might might be some guys out on both sides,

751
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 5: but I still always think these teams give high quality

752
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 5: efforts and intend to be entertaining.

753
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 1: That's the Niners and the Bucks.

754
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 5: It looks like it's gonna be just another one of

755
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 5: these like who's who's the quarterback, who's playing receiver type

756
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 5: of games?

757
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: Who you're going with in this spot?

758
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I guess full disclaimer, just to give a

759
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: peek behind the curtain. I tried for a good thirty

760
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 3: minutes to try to justify a long shot bet or

761
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 3: find even a long shot bet on the Bucks side

762
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 3: that I liked. And right now every Bucks touchdown score

763
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 3: is just shaded right now, Payne Durham, you can't get

764
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 3: higher than plus four seventy five. You can't get Sterling

765
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 3: Sfferd for better than plus three fifty. They got Kate Odden,

766
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 3: who has what one end zone target and maybe five

767
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 3: targets total. They have him at plus two to fifty. Like,

768
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: I can't do it, So guys, I'm gonna have to

769
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 3: do it. We're doing a Mecca Buka. We're just taking

770
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 3: in my plus one thirty five and we're moving on

771
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 3: all right, because he's essentially taken over the Mike Evans

772
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 3: roll in this offense. In two games without Evans seventeen targets,

773
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 3: three end zone targets, two touchdowns. The Niners are just

774
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 3: weaker versus the pass and the brun play a lot

775
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 3: of his own a lot of Cover three well, Buka.

776
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 3: He leads the Bucks four touchdowns versus own defense, leads

777
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 3: the team in fantasy points for run versus Cover three.

778
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,240
Speaker 3: So if you guys want to try to justify somebody

779
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,879
Speaker 3: down the line, I'm into it. But if I can't

780
00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 3: get somebody like Tesz Johnson higher than seven to one,

781
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 3: then I'm not gonna I'm not gonna force it. We're

782
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 3: going to take a booka. So that's on the Bucks side.

783
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: On the Niner side, I think is where there's more

784
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 3: injury because of the fact that we're not really sure

785
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 3: if Ricky Piersall or Juwan Jennings are going to play.

786
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: Now.

787
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 3: Ricky Piersol did miss practice Wednesday and Thursday. Jennings did

788
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 3: come back for a limited fashion today on Thursday. But

789
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 3: even if he does play, I think he's just going

790
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 3: to be on a limited playing And if that's the case,

791
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,359
Speaker 3: then I think we got to take DeMarcus Robinson. He's

792
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 3: around plus four to twenty five. When they signed him

793
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: in the offseason, John Lynch even mentioned that they signed

794
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 3: him to be their wide receiver three, and he was

795
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 3: fully expected to take over that role. After his suspension

796
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 3: and then obviously injuries have kind of elevated him a

797
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 3: little bit, but seven touchdowns last year with the Rams,

798
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 3: one of two Niners to see an end zone target

799
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 3: in that Week five game when everybody was out right,

800
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 3: the other being Jake Tongus, who Sewan hit for an

801
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: any time touchdown last week. So and then also Kendrick Bourne,

802
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 3: even though he had you know, ten ten receptions, even

803
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 3: he he is down to like plus two fifty four

804
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,279
Speaker 3: at any time touchdown for odds. So I mean, if

805
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 3: you're gonna give me DeMarcus Robinson, who I know is

806
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 3: gonna play probably eighty percent of snaps, is as touchdown

807
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 3: pedigree in this league at four to one or better

808
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 3: than that. So I'm gonna take so DeMarcus Robinson at

809
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 3: plus four to twenty five and we're gonna keep it

810
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 3: nice and safe. A Mecca Abuka at plus one forty.

811
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 5: No, I can't believe they're not even giving us tense

812
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 5: because that would be that would have been the guy

813
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 5: that I would have thought, Okay, he could be a

814
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 5: little under the raider, but I guess he played too

815
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 5: many snaps last week.

816
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 1: So I like THEBA.

817
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 5: I think there's a chance that Abuka is better than

818
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 5: Mike Evans, Like he just he looks so good, like

819
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 5: the Bucks might have hit on another one and just.

820
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: Kind of seen the current version of Mike Evans or like.

821
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's what I was a career, like he could

822
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 5: he could have that trajectory as good as he looks

823
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 5: in these first five weeks. And I mean, we've seen

824
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 5: this before from guys like oh Noll backup, who've kind

825
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 5: of tapered off, uh, Antonio Brown. But I'm well, Antonio

826
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:58,399
Speaker 5: Brown didn't start that fast. But you know, like I'm

827
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 5: just saying, as of now, I have not disqualified Abuka

828
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 5: from better than Mike Evans Hall of Famer in my

829
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 5: football analysis.

830
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 1: Mind. Yet that's that's all I'm saying. That's all I'm saying.

831
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 1: The flat you got another Flaco against the Packers. We

832
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 1: just had this. But of course the Bengals are not

833
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: your average stupid team. They are. I guess the Browns

834
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,399
Speaker 1: are kind of rubbing off on them. So I don't

835
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 1: know what's going on here, but.

836
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 3: Maybe to work.

837
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,360
Speaker 5: I don't it's worked before for teams, so like a

838
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:32,800
Speaker 5: couple of weeks, so uh, I'm gonna just keep it simple.

839
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 5: Jamar Chase plus two fifty. When it looked at my spreadsheet,

840
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 5: I haven't met plus two hundred. So whatever they're doing

841
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 5: with this trade, I think it helped because Jamar Chase

842
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:46,439
Speaker 5: and maybe it's just coming off the two touchdown game,

843
00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 5: but you have this huge spread fourteen points, you have

844
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 5: a total that might be selling it short a little

845
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 5: bit because I don't think the Packers are necessarily going

846
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 5: to just go in a shell and run the ball

847
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 5: the way they have in years past. I think they're

848
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 5: still going to try to play their game and let

849
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:07,880
Speaker 5: Jordan Weves sling it and you know they'll always be

850
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 5: able to run the ball. But I think that this

851
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 5: total could end up, you know, being selling them short.

852
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 5: So I think this could be another kind of like

853
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 5: the Lions Bengals matchup last week, where it's just a

854
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 5: lot of points, whether it's garbage time or otherwise.

855
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 1: So like Chase here at plus two fifty, show value

856
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 1: on him.

857
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 5: And then for the Packers' they have so many guys

858
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 5: that are kind of similar it's hard to pick between them.

859
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 1: But I think the safest guy is Josh Jacobs.

860
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:34,960
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go two touchdowns at plus two thirty just

861
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 5: because we want the You know, this is a spot

862
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 5: when you have a big spread, you do expect the

863
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 5: running backs to kind of get more chances games from

864
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 5: from a great games gripped per perspective, and you know

865
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 5: Josh Jacobs has had multiple two touchdown games with his

866
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 5: Green Bay Packer offense, so like him to score twice

867
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 5: in this spot. Of course, if you're parlaying, you know

868
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 5: you could still get decent ons by doing it with

869
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 5: a single touchdown, but I tend to think those are

870
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 5: a little bit more overpriced in the market.

871
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 1: So give me two touchdowns down.

872
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 5: For Jacobs and we will get into our favorite Sunday

873
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 5: anytime daytime touchdown parlay. But before we continue, do not

874
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 5: forget to sign up for Action Pro for real time

875
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:24,360
Speaker 5: pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, Joe Glant, myself,

876
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 5: the entire Action Network squad.

877
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: Plus you can access our pro.

878
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 5: Projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just

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882
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883
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884
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,239
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885
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Speaker 5: Action Pro. All right, before we get into our Sunday

886
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 5: Night and Monday Night parlays, and there's two Monday night

887
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 5: games this week, we do want to start it off

888
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 5: with our favorite Sunday Daytime Anytime Touchdown parlay presented by

889
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 5: Draft Kings.

890
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 1: Will each give our favorite player to find.

891
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 5: The end zone for this Sunday's slate parlay, all three

892
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 5: of them together over on Draft Kings.

893
00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 1: Jill, I'm starting with you.

894
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Zach Sharbonay. I like him

895
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 3: to score a touchdown against that Jaguars run defense.

896
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go guy we mentioned earlier, Ashton Gense.

897
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 5: This Titans run defense is just or this running back

898
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 5: defense with the Titans with nine touchdowns should be ten

899
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 5: just well hanging fruit for me.

900
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: So give me genty Kerner where you go.

901
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Kyro Williams to not only

902
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 4: score one, but two touchdowns at three to one against

903
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 4: this depleted Ravens defense.

904
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 5: All right, so you parlay Zach Sharbonnay anytime touchdown Ashton

905
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:07,839
Speaker 5: genty anytime touchdown Kyron Williams two touchdowns and you get

906
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 5: better than fourteen to one odds on DraftKings plus fourteen

907
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 5: forty four. That was our favorite anytime touchdown parlay presented

908
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 5: by DraftKings. All right, let's get to Sunday night football.

909
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 3: Schedulers.

910
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 1: I'm not mad at them.

911
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 5: They consistently had these interesting matchups and kind of scattered

912
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 5: out early enough in the year that we're still excited

913
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 5: and still don't know exactly what's gonna happen, and this

914
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 5: is one of them.

915
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: I think Lions at Chiefs.

916
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 5: Chiefs are a short home favorite after even off you

917
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 5: loss against Jacksonville. Jill, I'm gonna start with you first.

918
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 5: This is a game with the highest total of the

919
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 5: week around. Looks like it's still around fifty two and

920
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:57,239
Speaker 5: a half where you looking, because there could be a

921
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 5: lot of touchdowns if the market is correct.

922
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 3: And I think we have to start with them. On

923
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 3: Ross Saint Brown, Chiefs played a ton of man coverage

924
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 3: right now. Amon Ross Saint Brown I think has graded

925
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:11,280
Speaker 3: out through five weeks as the best wide receiver against

926
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 3: man coverage, So why not keep taking him in this matchup?

927
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 3: Love him.

928
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:18,399
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think the coverage matters. I think

929
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: he's just the top top.

930
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 5: Five receiver in this league, So I do You don't

931
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 5: have to tell me what they're how they're gonna cover him,

932
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:26,479
Speaker 5: because the ain't they ain't.

933
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 1: That's the point, Uh, I want to go if Xavier Worthy.

934
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 5: He's still kind of looking for that true breakout with

935
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 5: the touchdown and all that, he's plus one thirty five.

936
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 5: I actually have him projected at plus one ten and

937
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 5: the Lions are giving up times for the third most

938
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 5: touchdowns two wide receivers.

939
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 1: Worthy.

940
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 5: It is continuing to see that high target for route

941
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 5: rate at twenty six percent, and he's continuing to get

942
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 5: carries as well, and he's seen some work down the

943
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 5: field as well. And Thornton's kind of, you know, drawing

944
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 5: some coverage now too, which also helps. So a lot

945
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 5: of things I think working a worthy favor, including the

946
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:07,000
Speaker 5: fifty two and a half point total. I can't lie though, Sean,

947
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 5: I was about to go with the guy you're going

948
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 5: to talk about, yes, telling yeah.

949
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, anybody the bet that I'm going to be

950
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 4: giving Isaac Tislaw here at minus two thousand can cash

951
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:22,919
Speaker 4: that boom because I'm going with Isaac Tislaw at plus

952
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 4: five fifty. I mean, heading out of the season, I

953
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 4: just want to invest in his upside, mainly his touchdown

954
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,439
Speaker 4: upside because he's not out there much and he has

955
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 4: two touchdowns on three catches and five targets. I think, yeah,

956
00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 4: all three of his catches have been just highlight real

957
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 4: worthy plays. The main issue with him obviously is just

958
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: being under you know, Jamiir Gibbs, a, Monra Jamo and

959
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,440
Speaker 4: Sam Laporta and the target pecking tree. Other than that,

960
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 4: he's really good and his main competition for the wide

961
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 4: receiver three Khalif Raymond left last week's game with an

962
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 4: end and he's yet to practice, so I think this

963
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 4: game we could see to slat fully unleashed as their

964
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,400
Speaker 4: number three wide receiver, so even more chances for him

965
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 4: to be out there scoring touchdowns. So give me to

966
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 4: slot plus fight fifty.

967
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, this number could look silly because it initially sounded

968
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:19,320
Speaker 5: like Khalif was gonna be okay, But now I'm not

969
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 5: too short and you could get just entire game of TESLAA.

970
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 5: I would be like, what like a seventy eighty percent

971
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 5: unless they go with more Brock right, So yeah, this.

972
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,800
Speaker 2: Could chance city scores?

973
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 5: Is that you? Oh of course, I mean obviously it's

974
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 5: always touch has been last touchdowns too. I almost wonder

975
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 5: I'm probably gonna sprinkle from my last touchdown and then too. Yeah,

976
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 5: but yeah, no, I think you might get the start

977
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 5: the way it's looking like. But for this, uh Parlay Lions,

978
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 5: Chiefs a manra anytime touchdown worthy, anytime touchdown to slow,

979
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 5: anytime touchdown. All three zeros together on draftings thirty two

980
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,879
Speaker 5: to one. So that's a nice juice you want there.

981
00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 5: Monday Night Football Bills at Falcons, Jill.

982
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 1: This is an interesting one.

983
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 5: Teams coming off these early buys tend to it tends

984
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 5: to do a lot of good for them. But the

985
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 5: Bills are coming off a loss, and they don't do

986
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:23,400
Speaker 5: that very often either. So it's kind of an interesting

987
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 5: matchup where you and I should point out that this

988
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,480
Speaker 5: is like what you're about to do is both of

989
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 5: you guys actually, but what both of you guys are

990
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 5: about to do is takes a lot of cahonis.

991
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: I'll tell everybody why after so I won't. I wrote

992
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 1: ruine it.

993
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:40,919
Speaker 3: So Jill starts off, Okay, Well, I didn't know taking

994
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 3: the guy who leads the Bills and end zone targets

995
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 3: was a far leap, I guess, But I will do that,

996
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 3: and I will take Dalton Kincaid for an any time touchdown.

997
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 3: And a big reason isn't just that, is because of

998
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 3: the defense that they're going to face against this Falcons

999
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,040
Speaker 3: defense who play a ton of zone and their top

1000
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 3: three rate in Cover three and right now, Kincaid that's

1001
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 3: where he's been making his Hey, he's actually leads a

1002
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 3: team of Fantasy points per route run, has scored a

1003
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:06,920
Speaker 3: touchdown against Cover three. So that's who I like against

1004
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 3: his Falcons defense.

1005
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gonna go with his teammate Josh Allen, and

1006
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,479
Speaker 5: hopefully this doesn't mess anything up because you can count

1007
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 5: on either Allen or.

1008
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 1: James Cook usually to scored on the ground.

1009
00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:24,080
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with Allen in the spot because if

1010
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 5: you look at just Allen's career, he has a ridiculous,

1011
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 5: just utterly absurd uptick in scoring when he goes against

1012
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 5: the NFC on the ground compared to the AFC.

1013
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 3: So I can pull this up.

1014
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 5: So Josh Allen has played eighty four games against AFC opponents,

1015
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 5: he has scored on the ground thirty nine times, not

1016
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:54,800
Speaker 5: even a half a touchdown per game. Against the NFC,

1017
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 5: He's played thirty two games and scored twenty nine times.

1018
00:48:59,040 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 5: He's basically scoring double the touchdowns on the ground. And

1019
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 5: it might have something to do with the fact that

1020
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 5: a lot of these NFC teams that he doesn't play

1021
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 5: very often play indoors.

1022
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 1: Josh Allen has only played.

1023
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 5: Nine games in his career in a dome. He's played

1024
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 5: one hundred and one outdoors. In those hundred and one games,

1025
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 5: he's run for fifty four touchdowns, which pretty good, right.

1026
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 5: In those nine dome games, he's run for twelve touchdowns.

1027
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 5: He's averaging like one point twenty five touchdowns. So this

1028
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 5: is just a spot where it's usually gonna be cooked

1029
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 5: for me. He didn't come through last week, but I

1030
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 5: think this is a spot for Alan.

1031
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: The Falcons do play a lot of man coverage. They do,

1032
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 1: they do, they do.

1033
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,959
Speaker 5: They are very good defense against the pass and the runs.

1034
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 5: So I think Allen may have to do more of

1035
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 5: it himself. And I think teams are going to continue

1036
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:53,920
Speaker 5: to try to do what the Patriots did and just

1037
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 5: you know, press these outside.

1038
00:49:56,080 --> 00:50:00,400
Speaker 1: Receivers and Coleman Palmer, may you know.

1039
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:03,800
Speaker 5: Curtis Samuel and Josh Allen's just gonna be like, f it,

1040
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 5: I need to I need to just take take back

1041
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 5: control here, So go Allen mius one twenty five Kerner.

1042
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 1: Who you at in this matchup?

1043
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: Well, I'm curious to hear why this is a risky play.

1044
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 2: I'm guessing.

1045
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 4: I'm guessing you're gonna say because Michael Pennox Junior probably

1046
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 4: won't throw a touchdown and you might write against a

1047
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 4: run funnel Bills defense, and they have arguably the best

1048
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 4: running back duo in the game. And he Morris said

1049
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 4: they don't need load management. They do that in practice

1050
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 4: by just resting occasionally. But I can't wait to hear

1051
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 4: your actual reason. But I'm gonna go with Kyle Pitts

1052
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,320
Speaker 4: here at plus three fifty. I just think he's in

1053
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:42,279
Speaker 4: the middle of a breakout season. I mean, we've been

1054
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:45,480
Speaker 4: joking about this coming for years now, but I think

1055
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,959
Speaker 4: it's happening. You know, he's run a round on ninety

1056
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 4: six percent of dropbacks twice this year. We never got

1057
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:55,239
Speaker 4: to see that kind of usage ever until this year,

1058
00:50:56,200 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 4: and he tends to get more playing time and usage

1059
00:50:58,600 --> 00:51:00,960
Speaker 4: in trailing game scripts. That could be the case here

1060
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 4: against the Bills. So I'm gonna go with Kyle Pitts

1061
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 4: here at plus three fifty.

1062
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 5: And full disclosure, I show value on him as well.

1063
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:12,240
Speaker 5: The reason I was laughing was because I think anyone,

1064
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 5: anyone who's like a fantasy head will get this. But

1065
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 5: the Bills and the Falcons right now are the two

1066
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 5: pans down best teams in the league in terms of

1067
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,000
Speaker 5: limiting production to tight ends.

1068
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 1: Now, a lot of it is, you know, it's it's

1069
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 1: opponent base.

1070
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 5: But the Bills have allowed eleven catches all year to

1071
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:31,800
Speaker 5: tight ends for one hundred and thirteen yards, and that

1072
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 5: would that would usually be good enough through five weeks

1073
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 5: to run away with the league. But the Falcons in

1074
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,879
Speaker 5: four games have allowed eight catches for sixty nine yards.

1075
00:51:40,360 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 5: So yeah, it's combined. These teams don't even equal like

1076
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:46,279
Speaker 5: one tight end. So it's funny that we're going with

1077
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 5: two and then and then and then it's quarterback. Also,

1078
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 5: one of their quarterbacks also has to run one in.

1079
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 2: But I like it.

1080
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 5: I feel like, this is this is what you gotta do.

1081
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 5: I don't I don't put too much stock into you know,

1082
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 5: early season DVP. I think the you know, kind of

1083
00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 5: lying scheme that Joe mentioned is a lot more irrelevant

1084
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:06,879
Speaker 5: at this point, but it was funny. It wasn't lost

1085
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 5: on me that we both we have two of those

1086
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:12,760
Speaker 5: in our in our and there's the bottom two in fantasy.

1087
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:18,520
Speaker 5: But Kinka anytime touchdown, out anytime touchdown, Pitts anytime touchdown,

1088
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 5: twenty four to one at DraftKings. The second Monday night

1089
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 5: game at a true Monday night time is Bears Commanders,

1090
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 5: a rematch.

1091
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 1: Of oh Man.

1092
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:35,240
Speaker 5: Probably my worst beat until that Rams field goal block

1093
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 5: this year with that hail Mary, because I definitely had

1094
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 5: I think it was Chicago moneyliner in that spot. So

1095
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 5: I don't like to think about that, but I do

1096
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 5: like to think about who you're about to give out, Joe,

1097
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 5: because this guy's been money all year.

1098
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I don't think that this one is unsafe

1099
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 3: at all. Romadonsay right now, I plus one seventy five,

1100
00:52:56,719 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 3: mainly just because a lot of man covers that they're

1101
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 3: to see from the Commanders. I probably will be matched

1102
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 3: up with Lattimore, who I think has just been not

1103
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 3: good at all this year in his time as a commander.

1104
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:11,479
Speaker 3: So I think right now, anytime we can get Rome

1105
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:13,839
Speaker 3: over plus one fifty, and especially in a matchup against

1106
00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:16,239
Speaker 3: man coverage where he is just crushed so far this year,

1107
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:17,239
Speaker 3: that's what we take.

1108
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, I went to in the dock to pick Roma

1109
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,640
Speaker 5: dune today, I think, and so I'm taking.

1110
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:27,360
Speaker 3: That beat you to the bunch.

1111
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, man, but I like my guys, Well, I'm gonna

1112
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 5: go with I want to go with Alamide is the

1113
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 5: keys here? Actually know, No, let's do it because I

1114
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:41,839
Speaker 5: have two guys written down, and now that I see

1115
00:53:41,840 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 5: who you're going, I think this actually might be negatively

1116
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 5: correlated if I goes to Kias. So let me go

1117
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 5: with Krossky merit here, because you know, he's even money.

1118
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 5: And I was surprised to look at my projections and

1119
00:53:52,600 --> 00:53:55,480
Speaker 5: have him projected for even better than that. But then

1120
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,879
Speaker 5: I realized that he's going up against this Chicago Bear

1121
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 5: defense and they really are looking to kind of give

1122
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 5: him that that feature back role.

1123
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 1: They made him earn it.

1124
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 5: But uh, you know, he is a guy that he

1125
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:08,719
Speaker 5: can He's one of the few running backs I think

1126
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 5: that can score from you know, not just the red zone.

1127
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 1: But he's also I.

1128
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 5: Gonna get continue to get that heavy usage that we

1129
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 5: saw last week against just a terrible Bears run defense,

1130
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 5: and you got Washington home favorite here.

1131
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:27,840
Speaker 1: Their receiving corps a little have been banged up.

1132
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:31,160
Speaker 5: Who knows if Danis is truly one hundred percent healthy,

1133
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 5: But I think, you know, we kind we kind of

1134
00:54:33,040 --> 00:54:34,719
Speaker 5: saw that this they can kind of hit a new

1135
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 5: gear here in terms of running the football. So give

1136
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 5: me give me ja Bill here at even money with

1137
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,520
Speaker 5: the Bears haven't given up six touchdowns and running backs

1138
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:46,880
Speaker 5: in four games.

1139
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 1: So that's what that's a that's a spot. You know,

1140
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 1: maybe Nick Nichols can.

1141
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,120
Speaker 5: Mix in Rodriguez too, and we still get home. But

1142
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 5: Turner out of respect for the guy who I like

1143
00:54:56,920 --> 00:55:00,320
Speaker 5: more just as a player. But uh, I'm I was

1144
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:02,840
Speaker 5: gonna take the keys, But tell me why I shouldn't,

1145
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 5: because we're gonna take somebody else's stead Yeah.

1146
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 4: Well, I went to the doc to take Roma dunesday too,

1147
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:11,879
Speaker 4: or Bill Krofsky, he took him both. I guess that's

1148
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 4: what I get from checking the outline out an hour

1149
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 4: before we record. But I'm going to go with Luther

1150
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 4: Burden a third here at six to one, And I

1151
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,879
Speaker 4: was so close to hitting him to score the first

1152
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:24,719
Speaker 4: touchdown a couple of weeks ago at fifty to one,

1153
00:55:25,239 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 4: he scored the second touch on, of course, on that

1154
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 4: flea flicker. So you know, coming out of the bye,

1155
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:34,840
Speaker 4: you know, I think Ben Johnson could get creative just

1156
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 4: in general, but especially with a rookie Luther Burden Ray.

1157
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 4: But I know you like taking rookies following the bye

1158
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,839
Speaker 4: because that's their first chance to really, you know, get

1159
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 4: a week off and see what's working, what's not, and kind.

1160
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 2: Of integrate and better in the offense. So this could

1161
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 2: be Burden's time to shine.

1162
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 4: So you know, I think after we saw DeAndre Swift

1163
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:00,120
Speaker 4: run that fake fleet flicker, they might bring back the

1164
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 4: real one this week again and throw it to burdon.

1165
00:56:02,800 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 4: Who knows, but I think Ben Johnson's gonna come up

1166
00:56:05,440 --> 00:56:08,919
Speaker 4: something creative here in prime time, potentially to Burden again.

1167
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:10,920
Speaker 2: So I like him here at six to one.

1168
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I like it too.

1169
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:14,320
Speaker 5: I was just kind of trying to go with the

1170
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 5: contrarian angle with the key is because that's that's what

1171
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:19,239
Speaker 5: you gotta gotta do sometimes too.

1172
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:20,239
Speaker 1: But I totally agree.

1173
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 5: I think Burden probably sees an uptick and Loveland if

1174
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 5: he's back as well, but you know, and and Mananjai

1175
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:31,839
Speaker 5: the rookie back, so like it's there's a lot going

1176
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 5: on there, but yeah, love me, some Burden ended up

1177
00:56:34,160 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 5: betting on his. I think I've catched a Burden bet

1178
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 5: the last two weeks before is by, so I might

1179
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:41,320
Speaker 5: have to join you on this, Harlay or not. But

1180
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 5: for the part way, we got Roma Doon Day anytime

1181
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 5: touchdown from Jill Bill Crossy Merritt for me and then

1182
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:53,399
Speaker 5: Lucier burdon the third from Kerner. So that is two

1183
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:56,320
Speaker 5: rookies and a second second year guy. So yeah, but

1184
00:56:56,480 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 5: real young in this one. And it is twenty three

1185
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:03,480
Speaker 5: to one on Draft Kings. If you wanted to get

1186
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 5: really crazy and goes to Kis and Burden, which I

1187
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 5: mean that would be that would be kind of negatively correlated,

1188
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 5: but you see, we see weirder things, it would be

1189
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 5: seventy to one.

1190
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 1: So just just throwing that out there, a little bit.

1191
00:57:13,719 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 3: Of a revenge game spot for him too, I guess.

1192
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, and then even think of that angle.

1193
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:22,400
Speaker 5: All right, well, we gotta sign out of here because

1194
00:57:22,440 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 5: we do want to see Saquon Barkley's not non revenge game,

1195
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 5: but hopefully he gets in for us on our Thursday.

1196
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 5: But as I mentioned, we'll add these two anytime touchdown

1197
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 5: parways in the Party Express account and the Action apps

1198
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 5: will go follow Parlay Express. If you have not already,

1199
00:57:40,360 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 5: have some fun with us on some of these longer shots.

1200
00:57:42,840 --> 00:57:45,439
Speaker 5: And while you're looking at Party Express in the Action app,

1201
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 5: don't forget to sign up for Action Pro. It is

1202
00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 5: the only way for you to get the best bets

1203
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:55,720
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1204
00:57:55,800 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 5: experts post their picks. You can get twenty dollars off

1205
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,720
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1206
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 5: D two zero when you sign up for a year

1207
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 5: of Action Pro. And believe me, you do want those

1208
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 5: alerts because when Kerner posts a prop or Jill posts

1209
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 5: a touchdown, these lines do move, so you want to

1210
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 5: always get the best numbers, So be sure to turn

1211
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 5: on those alerts if you have not already.

1212
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.

1213
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 5: For our NFL Week six Touchdown show here on the

1214
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 5: Action Network podcast presented by DraftKings for Sean Kerner and

1215
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 5: Jill Gallant.

1216
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:29,800
Speaker 1: I am Chris Raybond.

1217
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 5: If you want to tell some of the bets we discussed,

1218
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 5: just go find a quick slip link in the podcast

1219
00:58:35,120 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 5: at video description or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now.

1220
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 1: You can also use at playbook on X to build

1221
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:45,080
Speaker 1: a bet slip.

1222
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 5: Shawn is on X at the end of scribes Maker,

1223
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 5: Jill is on X at g d a WG five

1224
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:55,760
Speaker 5: zero zero zero, and I'm Actress Raybon.

1225
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:57,640
Speaker 1: You can find us at those same handles on the app.

1226
00:58:58,160 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 1: Until next time, Let's get this money.

1227
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 3: Plologies probilities, probability, put fastibilities, Proun fastology,