WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: October 13, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.840 --> 0:00:05.960 By from the Bloomberg Interactive Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:09.760 Day Right for Thursday, October two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.039 --> 0:00:13.920 investors praise for this morning's reading on inflation, the International 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:17.720 Energy Agency warrants about global recession, US officials where they're 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:20.840 planning to cap Russian oil prices may backfire, and the 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:23.119 deadline approaches for the Bank of England to end its 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.479 an emergency bond buying program. New York's gunlog it's a 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:30.000 reprieve from a federal appeals court. Plus Russia Acid, Ukraine's 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:34.560 key area by Iranian made kamikaze drones. I'm Michael lar More. 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:37.800 I'm trying stash our in sports, the praise and padres 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:40.960 one of the nationally playoffs. Yankees and Guardians scheduled to 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:46.480 play game two tonight. That's all trading head on Bloomberg 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:51.600 day Break on Bloomberg eleven, TREEO, New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:55.360 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine 0:00:55.400 --> 0:01:00.000 sixties and Francisco Syrius XM one nineteen and around the world. 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:03.040 Old on Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:10.120 Business app. And good morning. I'm Karen Moscow. I'm Nathan Hagar. 0:01:10.160 --> 0:01:12.760 Bloomberg Daybreak is brought to you by SEI. Built on 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:16.399 advanced technologies and fifty years of innovation. SEI offers asset 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:20.399 managers are comprehensive and flexible operations outsourcing platform go to 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:24.000 se i C dot com, slash managers and US stock 0:01:24.080 --> 0:01:26.920 index futures are higher. This morning's five oh one on 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:29.040 Wall Street, and we check the markets every fifteen minutes 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:32.000 throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, SNP futures 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:34.479 are up about fifteen points down, futures of A hundred 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:37.959 twenty eight and NASDAG futures up. Twenty ten year treasury 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:40.560 down four thirty seconds, yield three point nine one per 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:42.800 cent in a yield on the two year four point 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:45.800 three one percent, Nathan Karen, will we wait for today's 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:49.000 inflation reports. Stocks enter this session at their lowest level 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:52.240 since September twenty s and P five hundreds declined for 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:55.720 six straight days now. Victoria Green is chief investment officer 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.400 at G squared Private Wealth. The biggest thing an investor 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:00.840 can do is don't panic or don't dirk on data. 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.000 We've seen wild moves off of some of these data 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:06.560 releases or FED moves, and a lot of times it's 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:08.400 a one or two day move and comes back to trent. 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:10.880 So I would say like one day, one week, does 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:13.400 not a market make like be a little bit patient 0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:16.120 g squared Private Wealth. Victoria Green says she does not 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:19.400 expect the FED to pivot anytime soon. Still, Nathan, the 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:22.480 Fed will be watching today's inflation data closely. The Consumer 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:24.960 Price Indise for September comes out at eight thirty am 0:02:25.000 --> 0:02:26.800 Wall Street time, and we get a free view from 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:31.160 Bloomberg Economics. Corresponded Michael McKee. Only minor progress on inflation 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:34.440 is forecast, with headline CPI rising at a faster rate 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:37.799 in September, while core inflation slows but only to a 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:41.200 still strong level. Housing is the biggest problem. Shelter makes 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:43.600 up about a third of the overall basket of consumer 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:47.000 prices and an even larger share of the core. Overall 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:51.239 Rents have only started to stabilize. Some categories should see pullbacks, 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:55.040 particularly used cars. Retailers are also discounting to clear out 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.120 inventory ahead of the holidays. But the ultimate message to 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.320 the Fed will be keep raising interest rates. Michael McKee, 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:04.679 Bloomberg Daybreak thanks Mike, And speaking of interest rates, more 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:06.640 big hikes are on the way from the Fed unless 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:09.360 there's a significant change in the data. That's according to 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.320 Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. If we do not see signs 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:17.000 that inflation is moving down, my view continues to be 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:20.600 that sizeable increases in the target range for the Federal 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:24.880 funds rate should remain on the table. However, if inflation 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:29.200 starts to decline, I believe a slower pace of rate 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.239 increases would be appropriate, And those comments from Fed Governor 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.920 Michelle Bowman suggests she supports another seventy five basis point 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:38.920 move when officials meet next month. We all eyes are 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.880 on the Fed, Nathan, But starting tomorrow earnings come back 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:45.000 into play too. Bank of America reports on Monday, and 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.080 CEO Bryan moynihan is now with optimistic words ahead of 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.160 the result. He says consumers are in good shape and 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:54.080 his bank only expects us like recession in the US. 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:58.080 They have this core of positive real GDP next quarter 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:01.120 just above zero positive and three straight quarters of negative 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.480 and so effectively defending what the NVR does you know 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:08.200 that's that's a slight recession, but is shallow. Brian Monahan 0:04:08.320 --> 0:04:11.480 spoke at the Institute of International Finance meeting in Washington. 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.280 Stay tuned for more from Moynahan on Monday, when we 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.040 speak live at the Bank of America's CEO on Bloomberg 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:19.760 Radio and Television. Well, Bank of America only sees a 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:23.520 slight recession, Karen. The International Energy Agency is warning about 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:27.240 a worldwide contraction. The i e A says opec decision 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:30.520 to cut oil production threatens to push prices two levels 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:33.880 that tipped the global economy into a downturn. And checking 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:37.159 prices right now, Nimex crude is moving higher, up six 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:40.160 cents per center fifty one cents at eighty seven dollars 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:42.760 eighty cents of Arril Brent is hired by seven tenths 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:45.799 per cent at ninety three dollars eleven cents. Meantime, Nathan 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:48.640 prisident Biden finds himself walking a tight rope over the 0:04:48.640 --> 0:04:51.279 world's demand for oil and gas and not says the 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:55.200 administration considers a price cap on Russian oil. Bloomberg's Amy 0:04:55.240 --> 0:04:57.760 Morris has a look at the strategy from our nine 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:01.360 on newsroom in Washington. The ideas to keep enough Russian 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:03.800 supplies on the global market to prevent a spike in 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.760 oil prices. But the move by OPEC Plus to slash 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.880 production by two million barrels a day could undermine the plan. 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:13.960 Sources tell Bloomberg that administration officials are worried Russia may 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:17.800 retaliate by cutting off supplies. Russia President Putin has said 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:21.160 he will not sell oil to any nation that participates 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:23.760 in the price cap plan. Still, the US is going 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.440 ahead with it, seen as the best choice among bad 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:30.080 options to curb Russia's oil revenues. In Washington, I'm Amy 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:33.159 Moore as Bloomberg Daybreak, Amy Thanks on Capitol Hill. The 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.360 House January six Committee is getting ready to present new evidence. 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.440 Today's hearing will focus on Donald Trump's state of mind 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.120 the day of the attack at the US Capitol, Bloomberg said. 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.320 Baxter has more. This is the last hearing before the midterms, 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.320 and the committee is endeavoring to reinforce its contention that 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:51.159 Donald Trump remains What they are saying is a clear 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:55.320 and present danger to democracy. Congresswoman Zoe Loughran says what 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:58.440 they discovered through their work this summer make clearer donald 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:03.800 Trump's intentions, what he knew, what he did, what others did. 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:06.480 She says there will be no live witnesses, but they 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:10.560 will have testimony from new witnesses in San Francisco. I'm 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:14.320 at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak, all right. Thanks. Meantime, Google has 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.640 approved Donald Trump's Truth social app for release in its 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.040 Place store. Google had previously declined to distribute the app, 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.320 saying it hosted violent threats and other content that goes 0:06:24.360 --> 0:06:27.520 against Google standards in Europe. This morning, Karen, it is 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:30.320 all about the turmoil in financial markets. The deadline is 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:32.320 hearing for the Bank of England to end its bond 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:34.400 buying program. Let's go live to London and get the 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:36.560 latest with Bloomberg's You and Potts. Good morning you and 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.279 good morning Nathan and Karen. Investors have been watching this 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:42.680 story all week, but tomorrow afternoon, the UK's Central Bank 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:46.320 will finally end its support for the country's bond markets. 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:48.680 Ahead of that deadline, the government now appears to be 0:06:48.720 --> 0:06:51.559 at log aheads with the Bank of England's asked about 0:06:51.560 --> 0:06:54.880 any fresh market turmoil, the government's chance that said that 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.800 would be a matter for the governor in London. I'm 0:06:57.800 --> 0:06:59.880 you in Parts bloom Big Daybreak, all right, new and 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.680 thank you and Incorporate News this morning shares about five 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.960 materials moving lower. The maker of chip manufacturing equipment is 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:09.000 slashing its forecast for a fourth quarter. It says new 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:13.240 export regulations will hurt sales to China. Straight ahead your 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:17.320 latest local headlines, plus a check of sports and this 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:24.800 is Bloomberg And start at five oh seven on Wall Street, 0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:27.360 work sixty two degrees in Central Park on an accident 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.840 headed to JFK southbound Van Wick past Linden Boulevard. Details 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:33.240 coming up the traffic First. Michael Bars here with more 0:07:33.280 --> 0:07:35.240 on what's going on in New York and around the world. 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:38.280 Good morning, Michael, Good morning Nathan. A federal appeals judge 0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:41.120 put on hold a lower court ruling that struck down 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:44.800 many of New York's gun bands in public places as 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:49.440 constitutional judge granted New York Attorney General Letitia James a 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:53.440 temporary order preventing in October sixth decision by US District 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:57.400 Judge Glenn Suttoby and Syracuse from going into effect. A 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:00.200 three judge panel of the same appeal scored must old 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:04.800 decide whether to stay Sotoby's decision for the entire appeal process. 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:08.120 Abortion providers in New York are seeing such an influx 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:11.040 of pregnant women from other states that they are struggling 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.640 financially to meet demand. Governor Kathy Oakle says the state 0:08:14.720 --> 0:08:17.760 is giving more than thirteen million dollars to organizations that 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:21.200 operate clinics throughout New York so they can continue to 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:24.680 serve women regardless of where they live. They include hospital 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:28.480 based providers, independent clinics, as well as many who are 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:31.440 receiving state assistance for the very first time because the 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:35.160 need is that dire. Governor Ocle says the state will 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:38.080 protect a woman's right to a safe and legal abortion. 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:41.600 New York's Health commissioner says monkey Bonts is no longer 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:44.600 the threat to the city that it initially was. Dr 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:47.560 Ashwyn Vassan, we have turned a corner that I hope 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:51.360 indicates that we now have the upper hand on this outbreak. Meanwhile, 0:08:51.480 --> 0:08:55.000 Dr Pisan says as for polio, traces of the disease 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:57.840 were found in wastewater samples across the state, including New 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:00.960 York City. For the fourth day in a residents of 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:04.360 Kiev were awakened to the sound of Air Aid sirens 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:09.240 as Russian bombardment of Ukraine's critical infrastructure continues what he's 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:11.200 saying that a village was hit overnight by a so 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:15.880 called Kama Kaze drone, probably supplied by Iran. A Connecticut 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.160 jury as ordered conspiracy theorist Alex Jones to pay nine 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.000 hundred sixty five million dollars to the relatives of Sandy 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:26.280 Hook Elementary School shooting victims and an FBI agent. They 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:29.320 said Jones tormented their lives by promoting the live that 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:32.520 the rampage was a hoax. Robert Parker lost his daughter 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:36.360 Emily in the shooting. I couldn't be more proud to 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.559 stand here and with all of these people. And I've 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:42.480 really missed my wife and daughters right now and they 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:45.199 can't be here with me. Robert Parker's daughter, who was 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:48.120 one of twenty children and six adults killed in the massacre. 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.040 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:54.520 on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.480 journalists and analyst more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:04.280 Barr and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. Coming up 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:06.040 to five ten on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.200 Sports up Take. Good morning, John stash All Right can 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.360 order Nathan. Unusual scheduling in the American League Division Series. 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.080 Yankees and Guardians, with a night off in between the 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:17.360 two games at the Stadium, schedule to resume their series tonight. 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.880 Rain is in the forecast. They can't play tonight. They'll 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:23.720 play tomorrow with Nestor Cortez going against Cleveland Shane Bieber. 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:26.960 Both n lds tied at one. Atlanta shout out the 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.640 Phillies three nothing behind Kyle Right twenty one game, winning 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.480 the regular season. The Pondres beat the Dodgers by the 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:34.400 same five to three score that l A won the 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.640 opener by Nix and Nets. Getting ready to tip off 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:39.040 those seasons next week. The Nicks lost at Indiana. The 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.840 Nets one in Milwaukee. Ben Simmons acquired last season, but 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:44.680 he never played. He is playing now and wal Simmons 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:47.800 doesn't score much Last night he at tennis Sis eight rebounds. 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:50.439 Can the Giants keep it? Going off to a surprising 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:52.920 four and one start, they host Baltimore Sunday as new 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:56.000 coach Brian Dable continues to be impressed by his quarterback 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:58.840 Daniel Jones. He comes in, he does a great job 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:02.079 with the players around him. Of of leading them of 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:04.440 helping them with the offense. And you know, each week 0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:06.120 I think you get a little bit more comfortable again 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.680 for five weeks into really live competition. Um so, I 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:12.960 think you learn a lot about players, not just Daniel, 0:11:13.000 --> 0:11:15.640 but everybody. And he's done. He's done a good job 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:17.439 for the Jones, led the Giants to the upset, went 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.040 over Green Bay. The Jets visit Green Based Sunday. Aaron 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.920 Rodgers heard his thumb when the Giants hit him on 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:25.040 the last play of that game in London. He didn't practice, 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:26.920 but he is going to face the Jets, as rookie 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.440 Skyler Thompson did last week. Miami's two a tongue below 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.880 remains out with the concussion. The Dolphins are gonna start 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:36.280 Thompson this week. Big game Sunday night, Dallas at Philadelphia Cowboys. 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.040 Expected to stick with Cooper Rush. He's four and oh 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.880 since Dak Prescott's thumb injury. Johns Dash Wear Bloomberg Sports, Nathan, 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:45.920 thank you, john SMP futures right now up seventeen points, 0:11:45.920 --> 0:11:48.320 Staff features up a hundred thirty seven. Nest that futures 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:51.720 are higher by twenty nine points now ten Your treasuries 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:54.679 down to thirty seconds. He'll three point nine zero percent 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.199 ahead of the Consumer Price Index coming out eight thirty 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.400 Wall Street Time. We pre you next with Sarah House, 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:08.240 senior economist at Wells Fargo. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven 0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:10.120 three oh weather, rain and a breeze today with a 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.679 high near seventy degrees, mostly sunny Tomorrow and Saturday with 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:17.160 up for sixties. Clouds will increase on Sunday upper sixties 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:23.480 once again. Right now sixty two degrees. Markets, headlines and 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.880 breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com. 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.559 The Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg Quick Tape is 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:39.760 a Bloomberg business lash and I'm Karen Moscow. Equity is 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.560 extending to clients as caution prevails before highly anticipated US 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:46.719 inflation data later today. The dollar is edging higher. We 0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.280 checked the markets every fifteen minutes to the trading day 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.280 on Bloomberg. Guess and P Future is up down futures 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.800 of A hundred fifty seven and nasday future is up 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.959 thirty eight. The decks in Germany's up eight tenths of 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.920 upper set ten. Your treasury little change your three point 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:02.400 nine percent They yield on the two year four point 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:05.240 three zero percent. Nine X frue oil is up six 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:07.559 tents percent or fifty two cents at eighty seven dollars 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:10.080 seventy nine cents a barrel. Comic schooled up third of 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.880 a percent, or five dollars sixty cents at sixteen eighty three. 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.160 Ten announced the euro point nine seven to three against 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:18.560 the dollar, British ground one point one to eight, and 0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:21.240 the N one forty six point seven nine. And looking 0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:23.240 at bit coin this morning, it's sound three quarters of 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:26.560 a percent. It's at nineteen thousand dollars. The consumer Price 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:28.640 Index at eight thirty Wall Street time, along with the 0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.520 weekly report on initial John List claims and Walgreen, Spoots Alliance, 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.520 and black Rocker among companies scheduled to report earnings today. 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.400 That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.000 Moore on what's going on around the world. Muncle, Good morning, 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:44.679 Good morning, Karen how Select Committees, the members investigating the 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.360 January sixth attack on the Capitol, will hold its final 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:52.840 hearing today. Members are promising substantial new footage and significant 0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:56.800 witness testimony. Since the last hearing, multiple members of Trump's 0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:01.520 cabinet have testified behind closed doors millions of Social Security 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:04.360 recipients was soon learned just how high a boost they'll 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:07.480 get in their benefits next year. The increased to be 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.600 announced today is expected to be the highest and forty years, 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.480 maybe up to nine. In the NHL, the Bruins beat 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:18.560 the Capitols five to Baseball's n l DS playoffs. The 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.400 Braves beat the Phillies three zip to even their series 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.080 at a game of piece. The Padres beat the Dodgers 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.440 five three to tie their series at one. One. Global 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:29.680 News twenty four hours a day on air and on 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:33.840 Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than journalist and analysts, are 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:37.840 more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael bar this is Bloomberg, Nathan. 0:14:37.880 --> 0:14:40.520 Thanks Michael. It's five nineteen on Wall Street Life from 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:44.480 the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak, and 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.920 it's not just a boost in social security benefits. Were 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:49.840 waiting to hear about how much of a boost are 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.600 we gonna get in inflation when the Consumer Price Index 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.920 comes out in just about three hours or so. Joining 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:00.560 us now, Sarah House, senior economist at well Is Fargo. 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.280 Great to speak with you. Sarah, And as we look 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:06.440 at the ECO screen on the Bloomberg terminal, pretty interesting 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:11.640 consensus here from economists that the headline inflation numbers expected 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:15.000 to take down two tenths percent while the core is 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:20.720 expected to take up two tenths percent. What's your view. Yeah, 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.040 so we're looking for a zero point two percent gain 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:25.680 on the headline, so that's in line with the consensus, 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:27.960 and that will help bring the year rear rate down 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:30.880 from eight three to eight one. And like we've seen 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:33.480 the past few months of big factor driving that is 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.200 lower gasoline prices, and we did see them take up 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:37.920 towards the end of the month, but for the month 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.000 on average they were down. But when we step back 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.880 from energy prices, we're still seeing very strong momentum in 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.720 the core component. So we're looking for a slightly strong 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.880 for gain there and what consensus is expecting so a 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.240 zero point five percent monthly increase, which would actually push 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:57.280 the year rear rate on core CPI up to a 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.520 fresh cycle hive at six point six percent. Now it 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.160 sounds like we keep the FED on course for the 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.000 seventy five basis point rate hike that a lot of 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.960 FED speakers have said that they are more than certainly 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:13.200 open to I think, so I think after the minutes yesterday, 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:17.600 the bar is even higher for stepping down to a 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:19.960 fifty basis point increase. So we're still looking for a 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.760 seventy five basis point increase even if you did have 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:26.720 at somewhat of of a downside miss. And I think 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.400 when you look at the core, there are some signs 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.920 of softening, particularly in goods prices, but that services component 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.600 is much slower, slower moving, and is looking like that's 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:39.240 going to remain fair fairly strong over the next few months, 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:40.320 and so I think the Fed is going to be 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.920 pretty hesitant to read too much into a softer print 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.080 to day, so they want to see a spate of 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.960 lower readings, which I just I think it's going to 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.560 take time to manifest. How much time do you think 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:55.040 it will take for higher interest rates to have some 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:59.880 kind of impact on the services component of inflation. Well 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.440 starting to see it now certainly in the housing market, 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.440 but I think that's going to take time to feed 0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.560 into the actual CPI. So the owner's equivalent rent measure 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:12.040 lags what we're seeing in the housing market by almost 0:17:12.080 --> 0:17:15.200 fifteen months. The rental portion of that it's a little 0:17:15.359 --> 0:17:18.000 it's a little bit shorter, and we have seen rent 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:21.240 slow down quite noticeably since the start be here if 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:23.480 you're looking at private sector measures. So I think some 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.440 moderation in the services side is coming. Um. It will 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:29.159 be helped by the fact that we are seeing at 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:32.240 least a slight slow down in wages. We're gonna get 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:35.240 some help from just some some methodology quirks from things 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.440 like health insurance here in October. So I think we're 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:41.120 getting there. But on the services side, it's it's only 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:43.600 going to be incremental improvement. I think where you could 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:47.359 see more meaningful improvement and inflation over the next couple 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:50.000 of months is likely to be core good. Of course, 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:53.359 we did get a higher than expected producer price index yesterday. 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:55.120 Does that have any read through into what we could 0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:58.159 get this morning? Well, I think it's consistent with this 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.720 general story that serves those inflations. Still where you're seeing 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:04.840 the general strength, and we certainly saw that in that 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:08.840 other services component. But where we did see softness was 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:12.240 in things like transportation warehousing costs, so that was down 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:16.159 for a third straight month. We also saw trade services, 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:19.760 so that's a gauge of retail and wholesale margins that 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:22.240 had the smallest increase we've seen in months. So I 0:18:22.240 --> 0:18:26.679 think we are seeing disinflationary pressure coming from the good sector, 0:18:26.760 --> 0:18:29.959 but still strength out of the services side. We got 0:18:29.960 --> 0:18:32.520 about a minute left here, Sarah. We've heard a number 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:35.359 of FED speakers say that there's going to come a 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:38.920 point where we need to sort of wait and see 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.600 what kind of impact higher interest rates is having. When 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:46.520 do you think the FED gets to that point? So 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:48.960 we think that the FED is going to remain pretty 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.600 aggressive here through this year or so, looking for a 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:54.800 SETID five basis point I can November and then stepping 0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:58.199 down to fifty in December, which is still historically strong. 0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:00.960 But we look at where of the side funds rate 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:04.600 is likely to be a positive versus the core PC. 0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:08.480 That's probably more of a fourth quarter even December event. 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:10.919 So that's what's employment our view that we're still going 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:13.600 to see some pretty strong rate hikes from the side 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:16.119 over the next two meetings. Great to speak with you 0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.879 this morning, Sarah. Thanks for this. Sarah House, senior economist 0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:24.360 at Wells Fargo, calling for month over month core inflation 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:28.280 to rise to a half percent. That's slightly higher than 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:31.159 the consensus in the Bloomberg survey as far as the 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:34.280 year over year numbers or consensus calls for eight point 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:38.520 one percent on the headline level six point five h 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.560 for Core cp I, we get the official numbers eight 0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:44.399 thirty am. Wall Street Time. We will break them down 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:48.919 for you completely here on Bloomberg Radio. SMP futures right 0:19:49.000 --> 0:19:51.920 now ahead of all that up a half percent of 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:54.920 nineteen points. Staff futures up a hundred fifty two points, 0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:58.080 and NASTAC futures are higher by thirty six points ten 0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:01.720 your treasury little change the yield three point eight nine percent. 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:08.920 You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg eleven three oh weather, rainy, 0:20:09.000 --> 0:20:12.639 breezy today behind your seventy degrees upper sixties into the 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:17.520 weekend with mostly sunny skies on Saturday, increasing clouds on Sunday. 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:23.600 Right now sixty two in Central Park, broadcasting live from 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:27.440 the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York. Bloomberg E 0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.440 living free to Washington, d C, Bloomberg nine to Boston, 0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:34.800 Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg N 0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:37.880 sixty to the country. Sirius XM to the one nine 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:40.800 team and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business at and 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:50.400 Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak and it's 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.879 my thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar 0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:55.760 and I'm fair in Moscow. We are just about four 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:58.400 hours away from the open of US trading. Let's get 0:20:58.440 --> 0:20:59.879 you up to date on the news you need to 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:02.800 know at this hour. US features are higher headed today's 0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:06.960 inflation report. The SNP five has declined for six straight days, 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:09.159 and stocks entered the session at their lowest levels in 0:21:09.200 --> 0:21:13.640 November of Economist Hugh Johnson tells US it's unclear if 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.400 we're nearing a bottom. If we get into a recession 0:21:16.400 --> 0:21:18.360 in the first and second quarter, which I think we're 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:20.920 gonna do, that's gonna be set up the time in 0:21:21.040 --> 0:21:23.119 which we're gonna start to get better news or news 0:21:23.200 --> 0:21:25.720 that the recession is going to end and the recovery 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:27.800 is going to begin. Maybe news that the Federal Reserve 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:29.359 is going to take its put off the brake, and 0:21:29.440 --> 0:21:32.600 under those conditions you'll get a turn in the stock market. 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.240 And economist Hugh Johnson says he anticipates a hard landing 0:21:36.280 --> 0:21:38.560 at a US recession. That's if the Fed holds to 0:21:38.640 --> 0:21:41.120