1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe for this Tuesday, the eleventh 2 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:10,000 Speaker 1: of April in London, coming up today below one percent, 3 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: The IMF says rates will eventually refer it to ultra 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,599 Speaker 1: low levels. The only way is down. Bank of America's 5 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:22,079 Speaker 1: hardness urges clients to offload equities amid peak rates. A 6 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: presidential visit, Biden heads to Belfast to mark the twenty 7 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: fifth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. US profits set 8 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: to slump, taking stock while in Congress, and junior doctors 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: walk out. Those other stories we're looking at in today's papers, 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: And I'm Leanne Kern's plus Winkle Lass. Billionaire twins Tyler 11 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 1: and Cameron support their Gemini crypto exchange with a one 12 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 1: hundred million dollar loan. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg 13 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: Daybreak Europe. The business news you need to start your 14 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: day in just one fifteen minute podcast on Apple, Spotify, 15 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App, and everywhere you get your podcasts. 16 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Stephen Carroll. Here are the stories we're 17 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: following today. The International Monetary Fund says ultra low interest 18 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: rates will make a comeback and its latest global outlook. 19 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 1: The IMF argues that aging populations and sluggish productivity will 20 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 1: push rates back below one percent. Managing Director Chrystalina Georgieva 21 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: says the next few years will be tough on growth, 22 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:35,680 Speaker 1: despite the remarkable resilience of consumer spending in the United States. 23 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: In Europe, despite the uplift from China's reopening, global growth 24 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: would remain below three percent as we projected it earlier 25 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: this year, and what is more concerning, it would remain 26 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: around three percent for the next five years. Georgieva and 27 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: the IMF also warned that lower neutral rate will limit 28 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: the ability of central banks to stimulate their economies. But 29 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: that's not off you shared by everyone. Former US Treasury 30 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 1: Secretary Larry Summers says government borrowing and the transition to 31 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: net zero will keep rates closer to two percent in 32 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: the coming years. Now sell the last hike. That's the 33 00:02:19,200 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 1: view of Bank of America's Chief investment strastus Michael Hartnett, 34 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: is telling clients to offload equities amid peak rates. Hartnett 35 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 1: says investors are too optimistic about possible rate cuts and 36 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 1: not pessimistic enough about the risk of a recession. His 37 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: comments come as a New York Fed President, John Williams 38 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: says market expectations don't factor into his thinking. Do I 39 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: worry of market expectations expect us through lory interest rates 40 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: by urin in a significant nature? I think my answer 41 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: is I don't really worry about it. John Williams also 42 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: rejecting the idea that aggressive rate increases are to blame 43 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: for the recent banking crisis that Joe Biden arrives in 44 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: Northern Ireland today to mark twenty five years of the 45 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: Good Friday Peace Agreement. While the deal largely ended decades 46 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: of sectarian conflict, the Parasharing government had created has frequently 47 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: been suspended due to disputes among the parties. Former Irish 48 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: government minister lizz o'donald, who helped negotiate the agreement in 49 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety eight, says some of the hopes for the 50 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 1: deal have yet to be realized unfortunately since the Good 51 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: Friday Agreement, because there still has been political instability and 52 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: the institutions of governance in Northern Ireland have only sat fitfully. 53 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: I think the great promise of the economic dividend has 54 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: not yet been achieved, but I do believe there is 55 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: As we come to the final element of post brexit 56 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: arrangements for trade. That economic dividend is there for the taking. 57 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: That's former Irish government minister Lizzodonald speaking to us on 58 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Joe Biden will meet Ritchie Sunak when he 59 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: arrives in Belfast. Later, consumer price inflation in China slowed 60 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: even as economic activity picked up, suggesting room for more 61 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,760 Speaker 1: growth and looser monetary policy. CPI slow to point seven 62 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: percent in March, missing economists estimates of one percent. It 63 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: comes as some in China accuse the US of trying 64 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: to limit its economic growth. The US Treasury's top international official, 65 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: Jay Shamba, says, there aren't plans to decouple from China. 66 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 1: We obviously need to be able to work together, and 67 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: I think that's something you've heard from the leaders when 68 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: they had the summit in Bali, that they charged their 69 00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 1: teams to communicate and work together, and in particular work 70 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: together on global challenges. So they said, you know, the 71 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: world expects us to be able to work together on 72 00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: some of these big challenges, whether it's climate or debt 73 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: or things like that. US Treasury Undersecretary for International Affairs, 74 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: Jay Shamba, was speaking to Bloomberg as Treasury officials will 75 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: be talking to their Chinese counterparts this week about issues 76 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: including debt restructuring for developing countries. Now, the Pentagon says 77 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: a recent leak of documents on social media poses a 78 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: very serious risk to national security. The documents include details 79 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 1: of US spying on allies and an assessment of weaknesses 80 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: in Ukraine's military. Bloomberg's at Baxter has the details. Both 81 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: Defense and DJ involved. Now. The Department of Defense has 82 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: referred this to the Department of Justice for a criminal investigation, 83 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: and I certainly wouldn't free to them, but I'm not 84 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: aware that they've come to any conclusions at this point 85 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 1: about where they're coming from. White House spokesmen John Kirby 86 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: says they don't know how much is out there and 87 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: whether more will be posted. We're going to get to 88 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: the bottom of this, and then if there's actions that 89 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: need to be taken as we learn more about the 90 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: extent of what happened here, we'll obviously take those. Kirby says, 91 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: hard to tell at this point how much damage has 92 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 1: been done. He says Defense officials are talking to allies 93 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 1: in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter. Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. But 94 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: those are some of our top stories on the program 95 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: this morning. One of the commodities in the markets that 96 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 1: we're watching this morning is Bitcoin, up over thirty thousand 97 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 1: dollars in trading early this Tuesday. Interesting to watch a 98 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: story coming out of the space, though, to do with 99 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 1: the Winklevoss twins. This is Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss having 100 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,840 Speaker 1: to dip into their own pockets to support their crypto exchange, 101 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: Gemini Trust. They've lented one hundred million dollars, according to 102 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: sources who have been speaking to Bloomberg people familiar with 103 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: the matter. This is at a time that Gemini has 104 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: been facing a whole range of challenges, partly linked to 105 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: the broader challenges in the crypto space, things like the 106 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 1: collapse of FTX, which had hurt the crypto lender Genesis Global, 107 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: which went under that was Gemini's partner in its urn 108 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: lending product, posing redemptions on ourn accounts, left nine hundred 109 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,599 Speaker 1: million dollars of customer money in limbo at Gemini. Led 110 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: to a heated spat between the Link Winklevoss twins and 111 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: Barry Silbert, who's the CEO of the digital currency group 112 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: with the Genesis parent company and essentially the parties of 113 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 1: reaching agreement and principle to resolve the dispute. Gemini though 114 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: still needing extra money, although this hundred million dollars won't 115 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: go towards that particular issue, but it's going to fund operations. Look, 116 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: this is an illustration of some of those big challenges 117 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: really being faced in the cryptospace by many companies, the 118 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: Winklevosses stepping into support their own part of that business 119 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: at a time that you know they're facing legal the 120 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: company rather, Gemini is facing legal actions from the SEC 121 00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 1: over the collapse of Genesis, and the CFTC is also 122 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: suing Gemini over allegations it was misled over plans to 123 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: launch the first US regulated bitcoin futures contracts. So an 124 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: interesting illustration of some of the challenges in that space 125 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 1: as well. Let's turn back though to the interest rate 126 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 1: story today and those comments from the International Monetary Fund 127 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: that says that rates will come back to ultra low 128 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: levels once inflation has been tamed. Our chief rights correspondent, 129 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: Garfield Drennals has with us for more now. Garfield, unsurprisingly, 130 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: there are plenty of diversion opinions on where interest rates 131 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: will go. The you know, we've got the IMF on 132 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: one hand saying that rates will come back to those 133 00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: ultra low levels. Larry Summers, for example, saying that things 134 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:01,600 Speaker 1: will higher than they are one and a half to 135 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: two percent is what he's talking about. What do you 136 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 1: make of the imas forecast on this, Well, you know, 137 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: the IMF is looking at the global growth outlook and 138 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: is very concerned and it's assuming that slow growth means 139 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: inflation goes away. That's, you know, the general assumption from 140 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,960 Speaker 1: most people, probably even Larry Summers. It's just that people 141 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:33,119 Speaker 1: have different your horizons for how rapidly they think inflation 142 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: will come down. Now, the big concern that has to 143 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 1: be out there, which people mostly don't want to discuss 144 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: too much, is what if you get the sort of 145 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 1: slow growth the IMAPH is talking about, but you also 146 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 1: get the kind of elevated inflation that Larry Summers is 147 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,559 Speaker 1: talking about. And in that case you kind of get 148 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: the worst of both worlds. You will have to have 149 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: higher interest rates than you might expect, and those interest 150 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: rates will all have difficulties, you know, coming down rapidly 151 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: if you do get a slow down. But they'll also 152 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: struggle to bring inflation down as fast as super might expect. Yeah, 153 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 1: so a complicated picture lying ahead. In the more immediate future, 154 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: we're getting USCPI tomorrow, we're expecting to see slowdown in 155 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: the headline race. Economists estimates five point one percent, but 156 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: the core rate could tick up slightly from five point 157 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: five to five point six percent. The numbers from March 158 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: also the FAD minutes to come to what are markets 159 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 1: watching out for? Well, markets seemed to be very you 160 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: nervy about the prospect that the CPI release will be 161 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: similarly a surprise to the upside the way that the 162 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: labor market release was at the end of last week. 163 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: And if you've got that, then you would get your 164 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: absolute confirmation of the idea that the FAD is going 165 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: to hike in May. That's after it's not that long 166 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: ago that that was seen as being a fifty fifty 167 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: or slightly less than fifty fifty proposition. But you know, 168 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 1: we've had a decrease in the concerns about the banking sector, 169 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: we've had that strong labor market data. If we get 170 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 1: probably even just inline CPI, with some of the comments 171 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: that have been coming out of the Fed with their 172 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: ongoing concerns about inflation and adopt plots, saying they expect 173 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: to go above five percent before they peek out. Yeah, 174 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 1: you would need a significant downside surprise to get the 175 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: market saying okay, maybe the Fed will hold next month. Garfield, 176 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: the word too. On Japan. We heard from the Bank 177 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: of Japan governor of the new Bank of Japan Governor 178 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: has Awada yesterday, no signs of a sudden change to 179 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: monetary policy. What should we take away from his comments 180 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 1: and what's been the market reaction? While the market reaction 181 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: has been to sell again. You know, his comments were 182 00:10:55,880 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 1: definitely seen as being dubbish. No sudden moves real, nothing 183 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: there to encourage the yen bulls and bond bears who've 184 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: been expecting that there's a chance that a new governor 185 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 1: might mean I moved towards ending yield curve control. That's 186 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: been quashed fairly strongly at least so far, and so yeah, 187 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 1: down goes the yen. And the big concern for the 188 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: authority student in Japan has to be if that end, 189 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 1: if those yender clients extend too far, which might happen 190 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: if we do get a more hawk is fed, then 191 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: do they get back to the sort of the clients 192 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: we saw in the yen end of last year that 193 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: actually caused a lot of difficulties both politically and economically 194 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: in Japan because it got the levels that really the 195 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,319 Speaker 1: local population were not at all comfortable with. Yeah, and 196 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,720 Speaker 1: interesting to see the end just up by two times 197 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 1: one thing yesterday after that fall that we saw two 198 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 1: times one to day rather after the fall we saw yesterday, 199 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: as well as the markets continuing to think about how 200 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: those comments point us towards what Casuwada does next. Our 201 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 1: TIEF Rates correspondent Garfield Reynolds, thank you very much for that. 202 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: Up next, US profits set to slump, taking stockwell in Congress, 203 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: and junior doctors walk out. Now the paper review on 204 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: Blue Birthday, break Europe, the news you need to know 205 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: from today's papers, and Bloom Brigley and Garons is with 206 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 1: us with a review of this morning's papers. LeAnn, let's 207 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 1: start with the Financial Times. The headline their US companies 208 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: face biggest decline and profits since COVID shutdowns. Yes, indeed, Stephen, 209 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: good morning to you. So ahead of those first quarter 210 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: earning seasons that we're expecting, which begins with a trio 211 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: of big banks. We've got City Group, Wills, Fargo, and 212 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 1: JP Morgan all reporting their results on Friday. But Stephen, 213 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 1: the outlook does appear super gloomy at the moment. According 214 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 1: to Wall Street Forecast, Corporate Americas facing its sharpest drop 215 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: in profits and that's actually since the early stages of 216 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: the coronavirus pandemic. Now they're saying the ft that this 217 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 1: is due to high inflation squeezing margins and fears of 218 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 1: a looming recession which is really holding back a demand 219 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: for things over in the US. And according to estimates 220 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: by fact Sheet, companies on the SMP five hundred are 221 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: expected to report a six point eight percent decline and 222 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 1: first quarter innings compared to the previous year the same 223 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: period a year earlier. Basically of the eleven sector, Stephen 224 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:39,599 Speaker 1: in the SMP five hundred, it's report of that materials 225 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 1: is expected to take the worst earnings hit. But something 226 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: did surprise me. Despite the recent turmoil in the UK bank, 227 00:13:48,080 --> 00:13:51,760 Speaker 1: the US banking industry apologies that we have seen, the 228 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,199 Speaker 1: financial sector is actually expected to report a two point 229 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: four percent increase in profit and lead all sectors in 230 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: the revenue growth. And that's despite the fallout we saw 231 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank over in the US. Yeah, 232 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: that is interesting. It'll be interesting to watch as we 233 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 1: start to get those numbers out of the US how 234 00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: they match up to those expectations. Let's go to the 235 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal. Actually on the headline there, lawmakers trade 236 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: bank stocks while working in US bank failure fallout. Yes, indeed, 237 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: so two lawmakers have reported trades and bank stocks as 238 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: they worked on these efforts by the government to address 239 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: the fallout from two of the largest bank failures in 240 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: US history, which I just mentioned, Silicon Valley Bank and 241 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: also Signature Bank. Now the disclosures, disclosures by a New 242 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: York Republican and also an Oregon Democrat, is the latest 243 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: instant instance of congressional stock trading crossing over with official business. 244 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: But Stephen, it's important to say that lawmakers aren't required 245 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: to disclose the time at which they trades were actually made, 246 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: so this makes it impossible to determine how much money 247 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: they made or lost on these stock trades. So the 248 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 1: Republican Nicole Molo Tacus bought stock in a regional bank 249 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: before an agreement was made to take over Signature bank 250 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: deposits following its closure. And it's just saying that she 251 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 1: actually bought the stock after she met with financial regulators 252 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 1: to discuss the bank's closure and Earl Bluminata also reported 253 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: three trades and bank stocks in the wake of bank failures. Now, 254 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: these trades could intensify the pressure on Congress to restrict 255 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: stock trading by lawmakers. But there we are, Stephen, the 256 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 1: debate once again opens. If this is something that can 257 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: continue the interesting story there from the Wall Street Journal, 258 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: Let's go to the Times next, Leanne here in the 259 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: UK four day junior doctor strike set to disrupt NHS 260 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: for a month. Yes, indeed, so junior doctors in England 261 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: will walk out for ninety six hours. And that says 262 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: the union. The BMA calls for this thirty five percent 263 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: pay rise. Now ministers will say this is completely unrealistic 264 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: the requests for such a bump in they wages. It 265 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: has also been described as the most dangerous and disruptive 266 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: strike action yet in the health service, and health chiefs 267 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: are urging the public Stephen to avoid any risky behavior 268 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: because this walkout will also affect A and E and 269 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: while over three hundred thousand operations and appointments could be 270 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 1: canceled due to this walkout, so big disruption in the 271 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 1: NHS for the next four days. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, 272 00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 1: your morning brief on the stories making news from London 273 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: to Wall Street and beyond. Look for us on your 274 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you 275 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning 276 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: on London Dab Radio, Bloomberg Business App, and Bloomberg dot Com. 277 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 278 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa device. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 279 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow for all the 280 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: news you need to start your day right here on 281 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:06,399 Speaker 1: Bluebirg day Break Europe.