WEBVTT - Ed Yardeni Talks Year-End Market Rally

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News, Sweeney with makeup.

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<v Speaker 2>I have no makeup, No, as Yard Denny said, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not wearing makeup in this hour, mister Yardanny and Studio.

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<v Speaker 2>A gift for you from Team Surveillance. Dana Telsey on

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<v Speaker 2>Retail America, Julia Coronado.

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<v Speaker 3>I think to be the key thing with the FED

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<v Speaker 3>is now are they going to raise cut raids? But

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<v Speaker 3>are they going to do it two? Three, four times?

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<v Speaker 3>A major mystery.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm looking at the WORP function here. Got an eighty

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<v Speaker 4>percent chance of a rate cut here in December. That's

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<v Speaker 4>good enough for I think the market. You'll see what

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<v Speaker 4>they do in the new year.

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<v Speaker 2>Futures Futures up eleven now after the CNE squire that

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<v Speaker 2>we've had this morning, the vix I still have a

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<v Speaker 2>good print. Yeah, we'll have to see you see if

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<v Speaker 2>we get under doing a sixteen and Oliver Chen on

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<v Speaker 2>Madison Avenue Luxury here coming up as well with TD

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<v Speaker 2>at Cowen right to it for the Interactive Broker Studios

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<v Speaker 2>for you worldwide.

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<v Speaker 5>Lisa Mittego, you said a futures Yeah, advancing on this

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<v Speaker 5>day after Thanksgiving, but it's an early close don't forget.

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<v Speaker 5>The stock market closes one pm Wall Street time, the

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<v Speaker 5>bond market open until two pm Wall Street time. SMB

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<v Speaker 5>Future is rising a tenth of a percent. Same for

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<v Speaker 5>Dow futures. Nazak Future is up to ten percent. Over

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<v Speaker 5>to the yield space a two year three point four

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<v Speaker 5>to seven percent, that's little change, and the yield on

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<v Speaker 5>the tenure three point nine to nine percent, and that

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<v Speaker 5>is little change. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index not much

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<v Speaker 5>movement there. Bitcoin up about one percent at just above

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<v Speaker 5>ninety two thousand.

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<v Speaker 4>Few stocks to.

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<v Speaker 5>Check in with, Alphabet at more than one percent, Amazona up,

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<v Speaker 5>Amazon up nearly one percent. Black Friday Shopping moving into

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<v Speaker 5>full swing. That is your Bloomberg business flash. Paul and Tom.

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<v Speaker 2>Listen, Materia, thanks so much. This is our Thanksgiving gift

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<v Speaker 2>to you. And it is not only the question of

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<v Speaker 2>nailing this bull market ed yard.

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<v Speaker 3>Denny lonely, I'm going to give real fan compora.

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<v Speaker 2>Joy as well a few octobers ago saying get on board.

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<v Speaker 2>But it is someone who's taken yell economics and folded

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<v Speaker 2>it into his strategy for participating in the American experience.

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<v Speaker 2>No one has done this in the last three four

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<v Speaker 2>years post COVID, like Edward Jardenny, where ANRETI joins US

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<v Speaker 2>Center studio today. Are you here just as an excuse

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<v Speaker 2>before shopping?

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<v Speaker 4>Shopping?

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<v Speaker 3>Are we shopping?

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<v Speaker 4>No?

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<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, I came just for you. And not

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<v Speaker 1>only that, I figured it wouldn't be much of a

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<v Speaker 1>traffic jam on the Islands ways.

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<v Speaker 3>True.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a combination of your requests and as a

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<v Speaker 1>perfect data commute.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you extrapolate? The first question for Global Wall

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<v Speaker 2>Street is to say your Denny as an audacious call

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<v Speaker 2>that everyone's catching up to SPX is.

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<v Speaker 3>Now fifty three thousand whatever.

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<v Speaker 2>What is the ther Denny process to extrapolate out?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think that what we've gotten right over the

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<v Speaker 1>past few years is the resilience of the economy, which

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<v Speaker 1>is then of course related to the resilience of the consumer.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think I sort of had insight information. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a baby boomer and I'm seeing all my friends retiring,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I'm looking at the data from the FED

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<v Speaker 1>and it shows that the baby boomers have eighty trillion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars of net worth. It's the wealthiest generation ever to retire.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, And you know, I guess some of them

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<v Speaker 1>intend to spend it all because the kids didn't listen,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they didn't clean up the room, whatever. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's a lot of money. And I also see a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of my friends helping out their adult kids with

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<v Speaker 1>mortgage down payments, with mortgage payments and with the kids,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, after school activities. So there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>trickling down going on, and I think the consumer has

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<v Speaker 1>been residient. I've also been talking about the digital revolution

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<v Speaker 1>with the technology boom. I mean, it was back in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty that I started to posit that this could

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<v Speaker 1>very well be the Roaring twenty twenties, and so far,

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<v Speaker 1>so good.

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<v Speaker 4>So far, so good. And on that front, I've told

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<v Speaker 4>my kids the last check I write is going to bounce,

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<v Speaker 4>so you get to work. So given that backdrop here,

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<v Speaker 4>what is your view of this economy here? I mean

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<v Speaker 4>the labor market. People are little concerned about the labor market.

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<v Speaker 4>How do you think about that?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, one of.

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<v Speaker 1>The reasons we talked about the Roaring twenty twenties is

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<v Speaker 1>we anticipated that there would be a slowdown in the

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<v Speaker 1>availability of labor. Baby boomers will be retiring, and we

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<v Speaker 1>also would find that as a result of that, companies

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<v Speaker 1>would be under a lot of pressure to increase their productivity.

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<v Speaker 1>And perceived that there are a lot of technologies that

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<v Speaker 1>existed in not too long ago, in twenty twenty and

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<v Speaker 1>that we did spotlight that AI could be an important technology.

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<v Speaker 1>Never expected it would just come out of the blue

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty two, but it did. And so we

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<v Speaker 1>think that technologies are there to increase the productivity of workers.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're seeing that just even now, I mean, second

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<v Speaker 1>and third quarters looks like real GDPs up almost four

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<v Speaker 1>percent each of those quarters. At the same time, the

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<v Speaker 1>BLS has been reducing the forecasts and anticipation of what

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<v Speaker 1>the labor force will be. That adds up to tremendous productivity,

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<v Speaker 1>which is great for real purchasing power of consumers.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, Edvard Denning with us folks, the celebration

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<v Speaker 2>is Friday after Thanksgiving.

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<v Speaker 3>We welcome all of you. Paul help me.

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<v Speaker 2>One PM is equities, yes, two PM bonds.

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<v Speaker 3>It's nuts. Why do they do two separates?

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<v Speaker 4>I don't know who's in charge of this stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>We welcome all of you across the surveillance Nation on

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<v Speaker 2>all the ways you listen to us on YouTube, subscribe

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<v Speaker 2>to Bloomberg Podcast, and of course we welcome Bloomberg Television worldwide.

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<v Speaker 2>A special good morning Jamana PRESETSI in Dubai, killing it

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<v Speaker 2>on the horizons.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning in the Middle.

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<v Speaker 2>East on this special day for America. Futures up eleven down,

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<v Speaker 2>Futures of forty eight ed Yard Denny with us as well.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to describe as said, because I think it's important.

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<v Speaker 2>James Tobin came out of Harvard studying under Chumpaer basically

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<v Speaker 2>the Nobel Prize is your folks, was a Nobel Prize

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<v Speaker 2>Chumpaider never got went down to his school in New Haven, Connecticut,

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<v Speaker 2>and under him was Villain Bouder, Edmund Phelps, a young

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<v Speaker 2>lady Janet Yellen as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Philim and I were there at the same time getting

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<v Speaker 1>our graduate degrees.

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<v Speaker 2>It's just really, really, really austere. In the heart of

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<v Speaker 2>Tobin and his wonderful eclectic economics of the twentieth century

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<v Speaker 2>was pay attention to nominal GDP. To me, the great

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<v Speaker 2>missed call here to bring it over to corporate is

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<v Speaker 2>animal spirit. Does your bullmarket extrapolation hinge just simply a

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<v Speaker 2>nominal GDP?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it does certainly a nominal GDP runs profits, and

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<v Speaker 1>profits run nominal GDP and runs revenues runnues at the

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<v Speaker 1>top of the income statement, right, And you know profits

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<v Speaker 1>typically lead to companies expanding their operations in both the

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<v Speaker 1>labor and in capital. In the current situation, as we

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<v Speaker 1>just discussed as a shortage of labor, so we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a lot more spending on capital to increase the productivity

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<v Speaker 1>of labor. And it's all good. Productivity is like ferry dust.

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<v Speaker 1>It makes everything better, It makes real GDP better, it

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<v Speaker 1>makes inflation lower, and so you still get an increased

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<v Speaker 1>nominal GDP, but it's the right mix.

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<v Speaker 3>Let me get one morning here, because Paul's got like

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<v Speaker 3>eight questions.

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<v Speaker 2>With that said, when you look at MAG seven, which

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<v Speaker 2>you have dealed, they're not under the same microeconomics of

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<v Speaker 2>traditional corporations.

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<v Speaker 3>Are they discuss that? Well, they have.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of them have motes around them and it's kind

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<v Speaker 1>of like game of thrones where you know, whe is

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<v Speaker 1>rising and another one's falling, and it's a very dynamic situation.

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<v Speaker 1>But they do account for thirty percent of the market

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<v Speaker 1>cap of the S and P five hundred, but they

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<v Speaker 1>also account for something like five percent of the earnings.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul, can you see Zuckerberg going cue the dragons exactly?

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<v Speaker 4>So, Yes, as we think about what a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>people have called concentration risk in this marketplace, is that

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<v Speaker 4>a risk to you? How concerned are you about it?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, that's not a concern to me, because these companies

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<v Speaker 1>are earning a lot of money, and they have a

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<v Speaker 1>tremendous amount of cash flow, and they also basically have

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<v Speaker 1>internal investment banking departments where they are able to find

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<v Speaker 1>small companies that they can leverage up and their businesses.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's one of the reasons that smidcap, small

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<v Speaker 1>and MidCap managers have been frustrated because anytime that they

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<v Speaker 1>put in the next Microsoft in their portfolio, it gets

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<v Speaker 1>bought out.

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<v Speaker 3>Exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, how about for the small and MidCap investors out there?

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<v Speaker 4>Presumably lower interest rates should help those companies. Is that enough?

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<v Speaker 1>I think we can see it in the way things trade.

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<v Speaker 1>Whenever there's expectations that the federal lower rates, the Russell

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand that does better. The problem is the Russell

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and has what something like forty percent of

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<v Speaker 1>companies that don't have any earnings. That's a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of a problem. But when people are excited and you

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<v Speaker 1>risk on, they're willing to buy those kind of companies.

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<v Speaker 1>But my preference is I call them the impress of

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<v Speaker 1>four ninety three. Everybody's focusing on the Magnificent seven. There's

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<v Speaker 1>four hundred and ninety three companies in the S and

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<v Speaker 1>P five hundred that are going to benefit are benefiting

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<v Speaker 1>from what the Magnificent seven are creating. These companies the

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<v Speaker 1>Magnificent seven aren't going to continue to do well unless

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<v Speaker 1>the products really do improve productivity for the four ninety three.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's happening, and I do expect that the

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<v Speaker 1>market will broaden out.

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<v Speaker 4>What is our Federal Reserve going to do here? I

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<v Speaker 4>think the market's saying December, we're going to get a

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<v Speaker 4>rate cut. After that?

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<v Speaker 1>Not sure, Well, the Fed really frustrates me. For the

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<v Speaker 1>past few years. Every now and then, I've written that

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<v Speaker 1>I be more than happy to do what the Fed

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<v Speaker 1>does for half the price, and my condition is a

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<v Speaker 1>continue if they allow me to work from home. I

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<v Speaker 1>would regulation or supervision, just macroeconomic policy. But a year

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<v Speaker 1>ago when they started cutting rates, you know, they're down

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred and fifty basis points since September of last year.

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<v Speaker 1>I said, I don't think that's a good idea because

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is doing pretty well and inflation is still

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<v Speaker 1>above three percent. But they just wouldn't listen to me.

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<v Speaker 1>They did it anyways, and you know what, the bondial

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<v Speaker 1>went up last year. Remember they cut the FED funds

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<v Speaker 1>rate by one hundred basis points. My friends, the bond

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<v Speaker 1>Vigelanis took it up one hundred basis points.

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<v Speaker 2>So Taylor rule with plugins, I can go eight ways here, folks,

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<v Speaker 2>on the plugins of Taylor rule. I'm going to say this,

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<v Speaker 2>doctor you Denny, as clearly as I can. With the

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<v Speaker 2>pandemic and with this original productivity experiment we're working, they're

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<v Speaker 2>flying blind if I'm blind, they're making I mean, you

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<v Speaker 2>know with me, Pharaoh Bramo sitting on the set, the

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<v Speaker 2>fedicides were making it up as we go.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they basically admit admit as much in their fair

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<v Speaker 1>and their dot plot. In the dot plot, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when he asked what is the neutral rates? Oh, on average,

0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:02.120
<v Speaker 1>we think it's three percent, But then when you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the dot plot, it's be told between four percent

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<v Speaker 1>is the kind of range, you guess, So they have

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<v Speaker 1>no idea what the neutral rate is. I think you

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<v Speaker 1>have to look at the neutral rate at right post

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<v Speaker 1>after the fact.

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<v Speaker 3>I got one final question.

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<v Speaker 2>Kurt Soup is out in Indianapolis for Creative Financial Group

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<v Speaker 2>and he's writing up these brilliant mistakes you make in

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<v Speaker 2>retirement tweets Real value ed. Kurt Soup Supe can't say

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<v Speaker 2>enough about how he gets you thinking.

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<v Speaker 3>How is ed? You're Denny saying we.

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<v Speaker 2>Should invest if we're all going to live forever?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think the baby Boomers especially were raised by Spock,

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<v Speaker 1>and I know doctor Spock has some influence on our

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<v Speaker 1>mother's but Spock from Star Trek basically told us live

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<v Speaker 1>long and prosper and that's what we've been doing. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, all investors should assume they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to live long and along the way should let the

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<v Speaker 1>magic of compounding really make the retirement very, very prosperous.

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<v Speaker 2>Michael Barr emails in he's already on the way back

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<v Speaker 2>to pick up the pieces after the lion's lost.

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<v Speaker 3>Ed your Denny ask him about his dog? Did you

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<v Speaker 3>bring your dog today?

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<v Speaker 2>No?

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<v Speaker 1>I you know we have four King Charles Cavaliers and

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<v Speaker 1>Max always likes to take a snooze on my couch

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<v Speaker 1>in my office. So Max is very, very famous.

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<v Speaker 2>I watched the Dog Show yesterday, did you great?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>That was great.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah yep, so some beautiful dog shined show.

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<v Speaker 2>I forget I forget that.

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<v Speaker 1>But it really is true. If you want a friend,

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<v Speaker 1>get a dog.

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<v Speaker 2>I put puppy sweaters from Canines Styles Manhattan yesterday. I

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<v Speaker 2>had to re mortgage the Middle Child.

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<v Speaker 3>Yep, they're expensive.

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<v Speaker 1>They are expensive.

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<v Speaker 3>It's outrageous.

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<v Speaker 1>If you get if you get a dog, make sure

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<v Speaker 1>you get health insurance.

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<v Speaker 3>And short well with Kemelfy. It's hopeless.

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<v Speaker 2>Edgar Denny, thank you for joining us today.

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<v Speaker 3>Just a real treat Thanksgiving