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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News, Sweeney with makeup.

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Speaker 2: I have no makeup, No, as Yard Denny said, I'm

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Speaker 2: not wearing makeup in this hour, mister Yardanny and Studio.

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Speaker 2: A gift for you from Team Surveillance. Dana Telsey on

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Speaker 2: Retail America, Julia Coronado.

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Speaker 3: I think to be the key thing with the FED

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Speaker 3: is now are they going to raise cut raids? But

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Speaker 3: are they going to do it two? Three, four times?

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Speaker 3: A major mystery.

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Speaker 4: I'm looking at the WORP function here. Got an eighty

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Speaker 4: percent chance of a rate cut here in December. That's

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Speaker 4: good enough for I think the market. You'll see what

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Speaker 4: they do in the new year.

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Speaker 2: Futures Futures up eleven now after the CNE squire that

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Speaker 2: we've had this morning, the vix I still have a

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Speaker 2: good print. Yeah, we'll have to see you see if

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Speaker 2: we get under doing a sixteen and Oliver Chen on

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Speaker 2: Madison Avenue Luxury here coming up as well with TD

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Speaker 2: at Cowen right to it for the Interactive Broker Studios

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Speaker 2: for you worldwide.

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Speaker 5: Lisa Mittego, you said a futures Yeah, advancing on this

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Speaker 5: day after Thanksgiving, but it's an early close don't forget.

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Speaker 5: The stock market closes one pm Wall Street time, the

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Speaker 5: bond market open until two pm Wall Street time. SMB

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Speaker 5: Future is rising a tenth of a percent. Same for

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Speaker 5: Dow futures. Nazak Future is up to ten percent. Over

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Speaker 5: to the yield space a two year three point four

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Speaker 5: to seven percent, that's little change, and the yield on

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Speaker 5: the tenure three point nine to nine percent, and that

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Speaker 5: is little change. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index not much

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Speaker 5: movement there. Bitcoin up about one percent at just above

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Speaker 5: ninety two thousand.

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Speaker 4: Few stocks to.

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Speaker 5: Check in with, Alphabet at more than one percent, Amazona up,

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Speaker 5: Amazon up nearly one percent. Black Friday Shopping moving into

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Speaker 5: full swing. That is your Bloomberg business flash. Paul and Tom.

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Speaker 2: Listen, Materia, thanks so much. This is our Thanksgiving gift

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Speaker 2: to you. And it is not only the question of

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Speaker 2: nailing this bull market ed yard.

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Speaker 3: Denny lonely, I'm going to give real fan compora.

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Speaker 2: Joy as well a few octobers ago saying get on board.

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Speaker 2: But it is someone who's taken yell economics and folded

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Speaker 2: it into his strategy for participating in the American experience.

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Speaker 2: No one has done this in the last three four

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Speaker 2: years post COVID, like Edward Jardenny, where ANRETI joins US

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Speaker 2: Center studio today. Are you here just as an excuse

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Speaker 2: before shopping?

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Speaker 4: Shopping?

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Speaker 3: Are we shopping?

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Speaker 4: No?

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, I came just for you. And not

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Speaker 1: only that, I figured it wouldn't be much of a

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Speaker 1: traffic jam on the Islands ways.

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Speaker 3: True.

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Speaker 1: So it's a combination of your requests and as a

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Speaker 1: perfect data commute.

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Speaker 2: How do you extrapolate? The first question for Global Wall

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Speaker 2: Street is to say your Denny as an audacious call

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Speaker 2: that everyone's catching up to SPX is.

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Speaker 3: Now fifty three thousand whatever.

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Speaker 2: What is the ther Denny process to extrapolate out?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think that what we've gotten right over the

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Speaker 1: past few years is the resilience of the economy, which

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Speaker 1: is then of course related to the resilience of the consumer.

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Speaker 1: And I think I sort of had insight information. I'm

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Speaker 1: a baby boomer and I'm seeing all my friends retiring,

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Speaker 1: and then I'm looking at the data from the FED

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Speaker 1: and it shows that the baby boomers have eighty trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars of net worth. It's the wealthiest generation ever to retire.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, And you know, I guess some of them

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Speaker 1: intend to spend it all because the kids didn't listen,

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Speaker 1: you know, they didn't clean up the room, whatever. But

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Speaker 1: it's a lot of money. And I also see a

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Speaker 1: lot of my friends helping out their adult kids with

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Speaker 1: mortgage down payments, with mortgage payments and with the kids,

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Speaker 1: you know, after school activities. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: trickling down going on, and I think the consumer has

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Speaker 1: been residient. I've also been talking about the digital revolution

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Speaker 1: with the technology boom. I mean, it was back in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty that I started to posit that this could

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Speaker 1: very well be the Roaring twenty twenties, and so far,

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Speaker 1: so good.

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Speaker 4: So far, so good. And on that front, I've told

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Speaker 4: my kids the last check I write is going to bounce,

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Speaker 4: so you get to work. So given that backdrop here,

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Speaker 4: what is your view of this economy here? I mean

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Speaker 4: the labor market. People are little concerned about the labor market.

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Speaker 4: How do you think about that?

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Speaker 3: Well, one of.

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Speaker 1: The reasons we talked about the Roaring twenty twenties is

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Speaker 1: we anticipated that there would be a slowdown in the

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Speaker 1: availability of labor. Baby boomers will be retiring, and we

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Speaker 1: also would find that as a result of that, companies

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Speaker 1: would be under a lot of pressure to increase their productivity.

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Speaker 1: And perceived that there are a lot of technologies that

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Speaker 1: existed in not too long ago, in twenty twenty and

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Speaker 1: that we did spotlight that AI could be an important technology.

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Speaker 1: Never expected it would just come out of the blue

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, but it did. And so we

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Speaker 1: think that technologies are there to increase the productivity of workers.

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Speaker 1: And we're seeing that just even now, I mean, second

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Speaker 1: and third quarters looks like real GDPs up almost four

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Speaker 1: percent each of those quarters. At the same time, the

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Speaker 1: BLS has been reducing the forecasts and anticipation of what

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Speaker 1: the labor force will be. That adds up to tremendous productivity,

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Speaker 1: which is great for real purchasing power of consumers.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Edvard Denning with us folks, the celebration

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Speaker 2: is Friday after Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 3: We welcome all of you. Paul help me.

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Speaker 2: One PM is equities, yes, two PM bonds.

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Speaker 3: It's nuts. Why do they do two separates?

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Speaker 4: I don't know who's in charge of this stuff.

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Speaker 2: We welcome all of you across the surveillance Nation on

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Speaker 2: all the ways you listen to us on YouTube, subscribe

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Speaker 2: to Bloomberg Podcast, and of course we welcome Bloomberg Television worldwide.

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Speaker 2: A special good morning Jamana PRESETSI in Dubai, killing it

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Speaker 2: on the horizons.

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Speaker 3: Good morning in the Middle.

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Speaker 2: East on this special day for America. Futures up eleven down,

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Speaker 2: Futures of forty eight ed Yard Denny with us as well.

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Speaker 2: I want to describe as said, because I think it's important.

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Speaker 2: James Tobin came out of Harvard studying under Chumpaer basically

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Speaker 2: the Nobel Prize is your folks, was a Nobel Prize

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Speaker 2: Chumpaider never got went down to his school in New Haven, Connecticut,

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Speaker 2: and under him was Villain Bouder, Edmund Phelps, a young

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Speaker 2: lady Janet Yellen as well.

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Speaker 1: Philim and I were there at the same time getting

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Speaker 1: our graduate degrees.

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Speaker 2: It's just really, really, really austere. In the heart of

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Speaker 2: Tobin and his wonderful eclectic economics of the twentieth century

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Speaker 2: was pay attention to nominal GDP. To me, the great

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Speaker 2: missed call here to bring it over to corporate is

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Speaker 2: animal spirit. Does your bullmarket extrapolation hinge just simply a

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Speaker 2: nominal GDP?

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Speaker 1: Well, it does certainly a nominal GDP runs profits, and

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Speaker 1: profits run nominal GDP and runs revenues runnues at the

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Speaker 1: top of the income statement, right, And you know profits

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Speaker 1: typically lead to companies expanding their operations in both the

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Speaker 1: labor and in capital. In the current situation, as we

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Speaker 1: just discussed as a shortage of labor, so we're seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot more spending on capital to increase the productivity

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Speaker 1: of labor. And it's all good. Productivity is like ferry dust.

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Speaker 1: It makes everything better, It makes real GDP better, it

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Speaker 1: makes inflation lower, and so you still get an increased

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Speaker 1: nominal GDP, but it's the right mix.

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Speaker 3: Let me get one morning here, because Paul's got like

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Speaker 3: eight questions.

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Speaker 2: With that said, when you look at MAG seven, which

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Speaker 2: you have dealed, they're not under the same microeconomics of

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Speaker 2: traditional corporations.

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Speaker 3: Are they discuss that? Well, they have.

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Speaker 1: Some of them have motes around them and it's kind

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Speaker 1: of like game of thrones where you know, whe is

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Speaker 1: rising and another one's falling, and it's a very dynamic situation.

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Speaker 1: But they do account for thirty percent of the market

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Speaker 1: cap of the S and P five hundred, but they

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Speaker 1: also account for something like five percent of the earnings.

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Speaker 2: Paul, can you see Zuckerberg going cue the dragons exactly?

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Speaker 4: So, Yes, as we think about what a lot of

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Speaker 4: people have called concentration risk in this marketplace, is that

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Speaker 4: a risk to you? How concerned are you about it?

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Speaker 1: Well, that's not a concern to me, because these companies

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Speaker 1: are earning a lot of money, and they have a

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Speaker 1: tremendous amount of cash flow, and they also basically have

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Speaker 1: internal investment banking departments where they are able to find

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Speaker 1: small companies that they can leverage up and their businesses.

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Speaker 1: I think it's one of the reasons that smidcap, small

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Speaker 1: and MidCap managers have been frustrated because anytime that they

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Speaker 1: put in the next Microsoft in their portfolio, it gets

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Speaker 1: bought out.

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Speaker 3: Exactly.

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Speaker 4: Well, how about for the small and MidCap investors out there?

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Speaker 4: Presumably lower interest rates should help those companies. Is that enough?

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Speaker 1: I think we can see it in the way things trade.

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Speaker 1: Whenever there's expectations that the federal lower rates, the Russell

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Speaker 1: two thousand that does better. The problem is the Russell

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Speaker 1: two thousand and has what something like forty percent of

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Speaker 1: companies that don't have any earnings. That's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a problem. But when people are excited and you

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Speaker 1: risk on, they're willing to buy those kind of companies.

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Speaker 1: But my preference is I call them the impress of

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Speaker 1: four ninety three. Everybody's focusing on the Magnificent seven. There's

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Speaker 1: four hundred and ninety three companies in the S and

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Speaker 1: P five hundred that are going to benefit are benefiting

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Speaker 1: from what the Magnificent seven are creating. These companies the

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Speaker 1: Magnificent seven aren't going to continue to do well unless

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Speaker 1: the products really do improve productivity for the four ninety three.

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Speaker 1: I think that's happening, and I do expect that the

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Speaker 1: market will broaden out.

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Speaker 4: What is our Federal Reserve going to do here? I

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Speaker 4: think the market's saying December, we're going to get a

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Speaker 4: rate cut. After that?

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Speaker 1: Not sure, Well, the Fed really frustrates me. For the

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Speaker 1: past few years. Every now and then, I've written that

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Speaker 1: I be more than happy to do what the Fed

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Speaker 1: does for half the price, and my condition is a

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Speaker 1: continue if they allow me to work from home. I

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Speaker 1: would regulation or supervision, just macroeconomic policy. But a year

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Speaker 1: ago when they started cutting rates, you know, they're down

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty basis points since September of last year.

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Speaker 1: I said, I don't think that's a good idea because

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Speaker 1: the economy is doing pretty well and inflation is still

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Speaker 1: above three percent. But they just wouldn't listen to me.

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Speaker 1: They did it anyways, and you know what, the bondial

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Speaker 1: went up last year. Remember they cut the FED funds

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Speaker 1: rate by one hundred basis points. My friends, the bond

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Speaker 1: Vigelanis took it up one hundred basis points.

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Speaker 2: So Taylor rule with plugins, I can go eight ways here, folks,

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Speaker 2: on the plugins of Taylor rule. I'm going to say this,

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Speaker 2: doctor you Denny, as clearly as I can. With the

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Speaker 2: pandemic and with this original productivity experiment we're working, they're

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Speaker 2: flying blind if I'm blind, they're making I mean, you

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Speaker 2: know with me, Pharaoh Bramo sitting on the set, the

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Speaker 2: fedicides were making it up as we go.

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Speaker 1: Well, they basically admit admit as much in their fair

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Speaker 1: and their dot plot. In the dot plot, you know,

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Speaker 1: when he asked what is the neutral rates? Oh, on average,

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Speaker 1: we think it's three percent, But then when you look

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Speaker 1: at the dot plot, it's be told between four percent

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Speaker 1: is the kind of range, you guess, So they have

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Speaker 1: no idea what the neutral rate is. I think you

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Speaker 1: have to look at the neutral rate at right post

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Speaker 1: after the fact.

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Speaker 3: I got one final question.

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Speaker 2: Kurt Soup is out in Indianapolis for Creative Financial Group

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Speaker 2: and he's writing up these brilliant mistakes you make in

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Speaker 2: retirement tweets Real value ed. Kurt Soup Supe can't say

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Speaker 2: enough about how he gets you thinking.

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Speaker 3: How is ed? You're Denny saying we.

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Speaker 2: Should invest if we're all going to live forever?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think the baby Boomers especially were raised by Spock,

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Speaker 1: and I know doctor Spock has some influence on our

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Speaker 1: mother's but Spock from Star Trek basically told us live

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Speaker 1: long and prosper and that's what we've been doing. So

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, all investors should assume they're going

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Speaker 1: to live long and along the way should let the

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Speaker 1: magic of compounding really make the retirement very, very prosperous.

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Speaker 2: Michael Barr emails in he's already on the way back

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Speaker 2: to pick up the pieces after the lion's lost.

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Speaker 3: Ed your Denny ask him about his dog? Did you

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Speaker 3: bring your dog today?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: I you know we have four King Charles Cavaliers and

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Speaker 1: Max always likes to take a snooze on my couch

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Speaker 1: in my office. So Max is very, very famous.

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Speaker 2: I watched the Dog Show yesterday, did you great?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: That was great.

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Speaker 4: Yeah yep, so some beautiful dog shined show.

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Speaker 2: I forget I forget that.

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Speaker 1: But it really is true. If you want a friend,

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Speaker 1: get a dog.

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Speaker 2: I put puppy sweaters from Canines Styles Manhattan yesterday. I

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Speaker 2: had to re mortgage the Middle Child.

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Speaker 3: Yep, they're expensive.

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Speaker 1: They are expensive.

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Speaker 3: It's outrageous.

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Speaker 1: If you get if you get a dog, make sure

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Speaker 1: you get health insurance.

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Speaker 3: And short well with Kemelfy. It's hopeless.

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Speaker 2: Edgar Denny, thank you for joining us today.

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Speaker 3: Just a real treat Thanksgiving