WEBVTT - Nvidia Buys $2 Billion of Chip Software Maker Synopsys Stock 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Bloomberg Tech is alive 0:00:13.520 --> 0:00:17.360 from coast to coast, with Caroline Hide in New York 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:19.560 and Eva low In sent frances Go. 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:25.599 This is Bloomberg Tech coming up in video strikes a 0:00:25.680 --> 0:00:28.880 deal to invest two billion dollars in chip design software 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:31.240 makers Synopsis, one of its own suppliers. 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.400 Plus crypto concerns continue amid a wide ranging sell off 0:00:34.400 --> 0:00:37.560 that has Strategy and stable coin Tether in the crosshairs. 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.960 An open Ai is taking an ownership stake in five holdings, 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:45.280 adding to a growing list of circular deals involving the 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:47.720 chat GBT maker and its backers. 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.240 Oh, we're gonna be talking circular deals today, that m 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:52.280 video deal with open Ai. But now we look at 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:54.880 the border market, said, and we're under pressure once again. 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.560 We're only off by three percent on the overall Nasdaq 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.720 one hundred, but remember it had a brutal month of November, 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:01.320 the worst. 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:02.680 Set off that we've seen since March. 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.000 And more broadly, we are starting to reassess these ongoing 0:01:06.080 --> 0:01:09.360 narratives of AI, momentum trades, crypto and the like. We're 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:12.080 seeing Bitcoin off by another seven percent. We trade at 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:13.880 eighty four six hundred and seventy eight. We're going to 0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:15.800 deep dive into that. But if you're going to deep 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:16.720 dive on some single. 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:18.880 Names right now, yeah, are we going to be talking 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:23.080 about circular financing? Maybe in Video shares higher, Synoptis shares 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:26.399 higher but off their session highs. In video investing two 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:29.400 billion dollars buying into Synopsis at four hundred and fourteen 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:31.600 dollars seventy nine cents a share, you can see we're 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:34.840 now pretty far beyond that. What will happen is Synopsis 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.679 will take in videos GPUs and its software library Kuda 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:42.319 X and basically integrated into the number one tool for 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:46.199 designing and validating chips. But on a webcast just now, 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:49.400 Jensen one and Video CEO saying there is no requirement 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:53.560 that Synopsis buy GPUs as part of the deal, and 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.960 actually any chip maker that already does business with Synopsis 0:01:57.320 --> 0:02:00.840 can do so freely. There's no exclusivity here. Still, that 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:01.520 was the reaction. 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:05.360 Circular financing it is, And let's dig into the rationale 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.600 a little bit more deeply. Now, Man Singh is here 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:11.160 with us covers semiconductors of call some Bloomberg intelligence, Mandy, 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.519 what is in it? To solidify a partnership there was 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:15.799 already very strong. 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:17.560 Why take an equity state, do you think? 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:20.880 Well, at this point, I think in Vidia is strengthening 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:25.040 its relationships with all its suppliers, whether it's TSMC and 0:02:25.120 --> 0:02:29.160 the purchase commitments it has with TSMC or for that matter, 0:02:29.240 --> 0:02:33.560 with Synopsis which provides the EDA software. And look, the 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:37.359 ACIC threat, which wasn't really that big of a thread before, 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.919 has really kind of come to the forefront now with 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:44.320 Google TPUs and you know, Broadcom has talked about how 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.000 it has got three or more customers that are taping 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:50.960 out their new chips. So from that perspective, you know, 0:02:51.200 --> 0:02:55.520 the suppliers of Nvidia come to the focus. And on 0:02:55.560 --> 0:02:59.480 the DA side, it's really an oligopoly with you know, Canaan, 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:03.919 SYNOPSI and Semens. So from that perspective, it's not surprising 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:06.519 to see, you know, Nvidia really investing in one of 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:07.480 their suppliers. 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:09.680 I'd like to dig into that last part a little 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:12.000 bit more. Men deep I mean listening to Jensen Wong 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:16.600 and the Synopsis CEA on the call, Basically they're explaining 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:22.200 that engineering tools still largely run on CPU based systems, right, 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:26.600 and EDA Electronic design automation is kind of the next 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:31.280 frontier right for improvement with AI. Is that something you 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:32.600 see as being real here? 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.320 I mean, look, I mean you can talk about how 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:40.800 you know, developers may benefit from, you know, a coding 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:44.520 agent type of functionality when it comes to EDA software tools. 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:47.480 But to my mind, you know, you don't need a 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:52.360 big training cluster for EDIA software. That's not the I 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:55.520 think the sense of what they're doing here. It's more 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:59.080 to do with just strengthening the relationship with their suppliers. 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:01.640 And some of these could a players, I mean, who knows, 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:04.880 And that's where I think having STIGs just give them 0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:05.920 some skin in the game. 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.119 And to be clear, Jensen one saying in a webcast 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:13.120 that's ongoing, there is no requirement that Synopsis uses the 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.040 funds from the investment to buying video GPUs Man deep 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:17.680 seeing the Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:19.200 Appreciate you kicking the show off with that. 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:22.080 Let's get more on what's happening with financial markets right 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:24.599 now for Ernis and coders. Senior analysts from City Index 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:27.160 joined us. It is the first day of December, and 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:29.799 actually a couple of hours ago we started things looking 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.560 pretty bleak and video is turned a corner which has 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:35.799 kind of changed a little bit the tone, but basically 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:39.080 tech lower, crypto lower, and we started December and risk 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:39.720 off mode. 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:44.360 Why yeah, I mean, we had a really solid rally 0:04:44.600 --> 0:04:47.880 last week, you know, on those expectations that the Federal 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:52.039 Reserve will be cutting interest rates in December. But as 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.040 we start off this new week, there's been a turnaround 0:04:55.040 --> 0:04:57.440 in that sentiment. I think the catalyst for that for 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:01.400 me came from Japan. We heard Bank of Japan Governor 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:06.200 Huaida adopting a more hawkish tone, really ramping up sort 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:10.880 of expectations for a December rate hike. Now what does 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:13.320 this mean and why is it important? Basically, there are 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:16.560 concerns now that we might see the unwinding of the 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:20.799 carry trade. So that's when we sort of have institutions 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:25.240 investors borrowing in the low interest yen in order to 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:29.560 invest in higher yielding, riskier assets. Now, if we're seeing 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.480 the Bank of Japan raise interest rates, we've got yields 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:35.640 in Japan tenure yields at seventeen year high. There is 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:37.840 this concern that we're going to start see the repatriation 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:41.120 of those funds back to Japan. Now, this is important 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:46.560 because liquidity changes and those sort of sectors of the 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:49.839 market such as crypto, such as tech, which are really 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:53.760 sensitive to liquidity, or where we're seeing that sort of 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:54.560 risk off. 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:59.640 Come through December historically strong, particularly for technology, right and 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:01.760 when I was on vacation last week, what a week 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:05.640 to pick and we had the Thanksgiving holiday. Circular financing 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:08.000 was a factor in video in particular weighing and the 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:11.440 index level. You just heard the reporting about how the 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:14.960 Synopsis in Video deal is not circular financing. To the 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:17.800 mind of the leaders of those companies, do you buy it? 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:20.040 And how big a factor is that in this market 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:20.479 right now? 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:24.480 Really good question. I mean this is front and central 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.400 I think in a lot of investors' minds at the moment, 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:29.719 particularly as soon as we hear the name and Video 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.120 and Vida's been investing in firms that you know are 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.640 or will be major customers of its products. So you 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:39.880 know that has raised concerns within sort of the markets, 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:42.840 and we've seen that play out in previous weeks where 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.200 and Video really has come under a lot of pressure. 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.080 It does feel like that that is sort of starting 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:50.279 to turn a little bit of a corner. Obviously, those 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:52.880 comments today, I think will help a little bit to 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:55.440 ease those concerns. But at the end of the day, 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:59.359 there is this sort of worries surrounding circular financing, and 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:02.680 they're not going to disappear overnight. And that's because circular 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.880 financing makes an ecosystem fragile. You know, it just takes 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:09.000 one disappointment for the whole loop to fall apart. So 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:11.200 I think it is right that the market does question 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.360 question whether this circular financing could be a problem. 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.320 Meanwhile, Fion, you could think that these are companies that 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:22.000 are strategically thinking of how they can ride extra upside 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:25.160 should the ai wins really come to bear. We're going 0:07:25.200 --> 0:07:27.160 to be digging into how open aiye is backing a 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:30.320 fund of its own VC partner that is looking at 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:34.600 integrating its technology into portfolio companies, into service companies. For example, 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:37.880 it wins not only by adoption of its technology, but 0:07:37.960 --> 0:07:41.280 on seeing some equity upside, Fion, It's what do you 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.640 need to see to vindicate that the productivity gains are there? 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:49.560 Yeah, this is why it's so difficult because I think 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:54.200 sometimes or often, if you're in that bubble and it's 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:57.400 falling apart, you won't often realize when it's actually too late. 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:00.280 So you know, I think the numbers that we been 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:03.800 seeing from Nvidia have been encouraging. You know, the latest 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:08.200 the reports earnings report was extremely positive. There weren't really 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:11.280 any faults there. I think this is just a nervousness 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:12.240 that we're seeing. 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:13.960 But I think at the end of. 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:17.840 The day, we know that AI technology is solid, we 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:21.040 know that it exists, it's going to increase productivity. There 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:26.320 are obviously concerns over monetization, circular funding, revenue, lagging investment, 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:29.400 but I think, you know, longer term, this technology does 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:31.440 have a broad use, and I think that's why over 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:34.600 the longer term this trade is still one that has upside. 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:38.160 You know, if we just think about the horizontally at automation, 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:43.120 R and D customer service, vertically different sectors, and an 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:46.120 infrastructure level as well. So this is a very broad, 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:51.440 broad technology which which sort of helps ease those concerns 0:08:51.440 --> 0:08:52.360 over the bubble fears. 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:54.160 I guess what about crypto? 0:08:56.600 --> 0:09:01.840 Yeah, crypto, I mean what every Monday I feel I 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.640 wake up and something else is happening in crypto. You know, 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:06.880 we saw that rejection at that ninety two there just 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.160 above that ninety two thousand level, which was a pretty 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:12.200 key level. And I think again this is that unwinding 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:16.640 or fears over the unwinding of the yen carry trade. 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:20.640 Crypto is very sensitive to liquidity, and that fear that 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:23.199 there might be a slight reduction in liquidity if that 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:25.640 winding of the carry trade happens is what I see 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:30.160 pulling on crypto. Institutional demand is still very weak. You know, 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:34.120 we saw November ETFs they saw outflows of three point 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.480 four eight billion, so huge outflows, I think, second largest, 0:09:38.000 --> 0:09:41.199 second worst month that we've seen so far. So that 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:43.800 really does need to turn around before we can expect 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:47.000 to see any sort of recovery or solid recovery in 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:48.840 the bitcoin price or crypto prices. 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:52.199 Talking about the broad application of AI and perhaps the 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.720 less broad application in the here and now of crypto, 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:57.679 Fiona Sinkotta, it's great to have some time with the 0:09:57.760 --> 0:10:00.800 senior analyst over at City Index. Meanwhile, let's talk about 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:02.800 data centers for a moment, but when it comes to 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:07.360 financial prices, because data centers do support the CME, for example, 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:10.760 one of the world's largest derivatives exchanges. But we know 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:13.800 that now the data center behind the CME has bolstered 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:17.640 its own backup cooling capacity after overheating last Friday. CME's 0:10:17.640 --> 0:10:20.240 markets were out for more than ten hours after a 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:22.800 failure and cooling system at the facility run by privately 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:24.000 owned cyrus Wan. 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:27.560 Okay, coming up, we're going to dig more into crypto 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.199 markets and what's behind this week's long seller. 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:32.080 That's next, This is Bloomberg Tech. 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:49.440 Cryptocurrency is fell again today, Bitcoin dipping below eighty four 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:53.000 thousand US dollars per token at one point, Ether dropping 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:56.079 more than seven percent to below twenty eight hundred dollars, 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:58.880 joining us now in the crypto markets weeks long sell off. 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:02.600 Bloomberg's senior Digital finance editor, Anna Irrera, we're writing on 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:06.480 the Bloomberg terminal about how we've started December in risk 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.680 off mode, but actually trade is in the crypto space 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:12.240 embracing for even bigger moves lower. 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:13.400 What are the factors behind that? 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.840 So, as you know, cryptos not immune to big price swings, 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:21.360 and you know we've had these before, we're not a 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.480 stranger to it. But what's different this time? It seems 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:25.840 that there's you know, there's not been any big crypto 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.880 event like you know, fraud or something that's very dramatic 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:30.880 that's typical to crypto. It seems like cryptos may be 0:11:30.960 --> 0:11:32.720 starting to mature in a way, and it's starting to 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.880 follow more the macro environment and starting to behave a 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:37.880 bit more like risk assets. So one of the factors 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:40.320 that today was sort of the Bank of Japan, which 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.680 you were talking about before, and how that trade is 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.000 unwinding and people are concerned that there will be less 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:47.760 liquidity and of course than less money to spend on 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:49.240 risk your assets like crypto. 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:52.720 There are some idiosyncratic issues at play here though, Anna, 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:56.280 one of them being perhaps standing a pause, putting out 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.560 a bit of a risk warning on tether, the stable 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.679 coin most widely used one, worrying about its collateralization. 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.040 But then we looked at what's happening in strategy. 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.640 Of course, a big purchaser a bitcoin that shook the 0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:09.080 market by potentially saying it could even sell off that 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:10.200 bitcoin if. 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:11.120 Really forced to do so. 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:13.040 But now they try and come in and temper those 0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.880 fears when news of well, really a reserve fund. Why 0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:19.200 isn't it working, Why isn't pushing strategy back higher again? 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.200 I think, I think again, perhaps everything in crypto tends 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.760 to move together. Still. You know, we had it with 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:29.640 Coinbase for a while when it was the only listed company. 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:32.800 You tend to react to bigcoin even before the ETFs, right, 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.520 it was kind of a gauge on the broader crypto 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.160 market away investors could go in. So I think perhaps 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:40.560 the mood is just risk off in general, and so 0:12:40.720 --> 0:12:43.080 no matter what strategy is saying, investors are still a 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.520 bit concerned, a bit cautious. And again, you know we 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.000 mentioned you mentioned before sort of the big withdrawals and 0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:51.480 redemptions on the ETFs. Again, until that changes and there 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:53.520 is more investment in the ATFS, it's hard to see 0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:55.640 how you know the mark the crypto market will pick 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.720 up again. But you know, crypto's also very strange to predict, 0:12:58.720 --> 0:12:59.240 so you never know. 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:01.080 Tomorrow might be another day in very. 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:04.960 Different well, said Bloomberg's Ana Arera. We thank you very much. 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.160 Let's keep the discussion going. Jilak Jovin Futro is with 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.760 us managing partner at Future Perfect Ventures. It's an early 0:13:10.800 --> 0:13:14.200 stage firm. We focus on blockchain technology, crypto assets and more. 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:16.520 For you, you're about the builders. 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.080 And the companies that are trying to use the underlying technology, Jilac. 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:21.960 But just paint the macro picture right now, what does 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:25.680 bring institutional retail money back into the ETFs or to 0:13:25.720 --> 0:13:26.880 the crypto as they stand? 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.440 Sure, I mean your previous guests have mentioned the Bank 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:35.720 of Japan news which was significant for bitcoin as well 0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:40.560 as the broader crypto markets. And we've seen crypto since 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.839 the ETFs have been issued, and we've seen more institutional 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:48.440 involvement move more in line with other risk assets. Before, 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.400 you know, we saw a decoupling of the price behavior, 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.679 but now you know, we're looking at the macro outlook 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:59.960 and it's challenging for risk assets right now. We are 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:04.440 also have the added challenge of the bitcoin treasuries that 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:06.880 have been built up, and if we start to see selling, 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:10.160 as you know Strategy mentioned they may do, that's going 0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:15.400 to create more downward pressure. However, you know, we still 0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:20.720 believe that there's great global demand for bitcoin specifically, and 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.880 we're going to continue to see ETFs and new products 0:14:23.920 --> 0:14:27.920 develop on bitcoin. That's just going to happen in the 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:29.080 next year or so. 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:34.760 I mean, you're all about the ecosystem, blockshoined, blockchain, dot com, bicco. 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:37.200 Also thinking of course, how you've been in moon pay. 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.320 But when you see warries around stable coins or when 0:14:41.320 --> 0:14:46.120 there's a broader macro downward pressure, does that impact those 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.200 that are trying to build or do they shake it off? 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.480 Well, it certainly impacts in the short term, but a 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.360 lot of these entrepreneurs have been building for years towards 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:59.280 a rewiring of the financial system that is faster, cheaper, 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:04.200 offers access to different types of financial assets, and we 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:07.040 have seen over the years that that trend is not 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.200 going away. There's going to be short term blips as 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:14.320 we're seeing now, but stable coins are going to be 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:18.000 an important part of the new financial order, and we're 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:22.440 seeing companies like Stripe and others start to adopt access 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:23.840 to stable coins. 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:27.720 That is the state of play that you've just summarized. 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:31.160 Everyone is bullish on the long term about the role 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:34.320 of these technologies in the global financial system, and in 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:37.160 the near term we're in risk off mode because of 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:40.000 worries about interest rates and the direction for interest rates, 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.200 and that in the moment is moving markets. 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:43.480 How long does that carry on for? 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:47.360 Well, you know, there's a great amount of uncertainty. I 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:51.600 think through the end of the year and we're you know, 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.520 i'd say, I'm looking towards the early next year. 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:56.920 To have that certainty back. 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.840 We have several companies in our portfolio lined up to 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:05.280 go public on NASDAC. We're probably going to see, you know, 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:08.000 some of the short term delay on that until market 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:10.640 conditions improve, but I do believe that they will improve 0:16:10.680 --> 0:16:11.520 early next year. 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:13.480 This can't help myself. 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:17.120 What is your twenty twenty six year end bitcoin prediction? 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:23.000 Well, I don't believe we're going to see massive kind 0:16:23.000 --> 0:16:25.240 of price movements. I've been invested in the sector, as 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:29.080 you know, since twenty thirteen, specifically in bitcoin, and we 0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:34.120 see massive you know upswings, down swings. What we're seeing now. 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.960 I think there'll be some tight trading. I can see 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.120 it go you know, up to two hundred. I'm not 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:40.840 one of those that's going to predict that it's going 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:41.600 to go to a million. 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:44.000 The reason I asked that I was trying to marry 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:47.320 those two points, the long term bullishness on the underlying 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.280 technology in the short term price volatility. I do find 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.960 it interesting reading the Bloomberg Terminal that the data set 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:56.760 that is giving most concern is lack of inflows into 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:01.200 the ETFs, which you've discussed what would change the psychology 0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:04.480 of people to push inflows in a positive direction. 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.400 Yeah. I think it goes back to certainty. We want 0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:10.760 to see where the interest rates are headed on a 0:17:10.760 --> 0:17:14.560 global basis. You know, the October sell off in the 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:19.240 crypto sector was due to the tariff uncertainty around China. 0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.800 We also saw people taking profits when bitcoin went up 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.320 to one hundred and twenty six thousand, So in the 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:30.080 span of three months or less than three months, we've 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:33.840 seen over a thirty percent drop. That being said, I 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:37.320 don't see a downward spiral because there are going to 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.760 be people who want to get access to the asset. 0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:40.920 I mean, we just came off of. 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:45.160 Thanksgiving in the US and dinner table conversation was all 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:48.639 around crypto. Of course AI also, but crypto was a 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:50.639 big part of it. So there's still a lot of 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:53.720 retail interest and you know, I think they get concerned 0:17:53.760 --> 0:17:56.720 when you just see these big price drops. But we'll 0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:58.200 start to see that reverse. 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.600 J lak Jobum plus sure from Future Perfect Ventures. Great 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:03.760 to have you back on the show. Thank you, Caroy. 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.360 Yeah, now it's time for talking tech and first up, 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:10.560 well we're looking at elon Musk expanding snail Brook, Texas, 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:14.400 the company town tied to the boring company. Correspondence between 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:18.440 muscles and executives and local officials show plans for new housing, 0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:19.880 a science center, and a gym. 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:21.720 It comes as the must tunnel. 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:24.600 Building company negotiates with a county over tax breaks and 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:28.720 environmental concerns. Plus, Australia will become the first democracy to 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.960 ban its youth from popular services like TikTok and Instagram. 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:34.400 That a law requiring platforms to block. 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.160 Under sixteens takes effect to some of the tenth companies 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.679 don't comply, they could be facing fines as high as 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:43.800 three thirty two million dollars, and SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:46.240 says the company would have held onto its Nvidia shares 0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:48.000 if it had unlimited. 0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:49.679 Cash for its next AI investments. 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.760 Soft Bank has doubled down on AI, backing the Stargate 0:18:52.880 --> 0:18:56.119 Data Center project, buying chip designer Ampere, and it plans 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:59.119 to invest more in open Ai by the end of 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:08.840 the year ed open Ai Well, It's agreed to take 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:12.720 an ownership stake in Thrive Holdings, an investment vehicle of 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:16.040 its own VC backer Thrive Capital. It's all about accelerating 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:19.080 enterprise AI adoption, we're told Opening I says it plans 0:19:19.119 --> 0:19:22.440 to boost speed, accuracy, cost efficiency among the companies within 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:23.560 Thrive Holdings. 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:25.720 Newberg Seth Hman joins us now and. 0:19:25.760 --> 0:19:29.360 The latest that some will say again circular AI deals. 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.399 How is this going to be a win win for 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:32.960 open Ai. 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:35.720 Yeah, it does have the appearance of circularity. We'll figure 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.600 out more of the details soon. But OPENINGI is going 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.440 to help the businesses their Thrive Holdings invest in by 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:44.359 embegging its own teams within those businesses to help them 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:47.720 speed up and become more efficient in AI deployment. And 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:49.960 of course, Thrive Holdings is part of Thrive Capital, which 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.800 played a really pivotal role in backing Opening I over 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:55.359 the last couple of years in multiple rounds and making 0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:56.320 it what it goes today. 0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:57.560 So mutual. 0:19:58.840 --> 0:20:02.119 So I think we're both hearing in sort of pushback 0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:05.080 to whether this is or is not circular financing that 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:08.400 there is no exchange of money or funds between open 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:14.680 AI and the holdingspit, which makes it confusing. Basically, Therefore, 0:20:14.760 --> 0:20:17.399 it kind of is like a venture capitalist who's an operator. 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:19.760 It sounds like open AI comes in and goes, we'll 0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:21.800 help you of all these things for zero dollars. 0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:24.360 Yeah, I think we're trying to figure out what the 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:28.520 precise deal terms are here. But regardless, this is opening 0:20:28.600 --> 0:20:33.160 I that was primarily packed by Thrive Capital over multiple 0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:38.560 investment rounds, now having a stake and investing interest in 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.560 seeing this other arm of Thrive, you know, Thrive and 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:47.359 its businesses do well. What dollars changed hands, we don't 0:20:47.400 --> 0:20:49.920 know yet, but it fits into the larger mold here 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:53.600 of a lot of these non traditional arrangements between vcs, 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:57.320 chip makers, cloud providers, and the up and coming AI 0:20:57.440 --> 0:21:00.440 developers who are all kind of bound tightly together. And 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:02.159 I think the industry would say, well, this ensures that 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.280 they all kind of rise up, they all help each other, 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:06.840 and they all do well. But I think those those 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:10.640 interwoven agreements are also a real cause for concern right now. 0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:13.440