1 00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here 2 00:00:03,840 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election. 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade 5 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,720 Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you guys the best independent. 6 00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible. 7 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,279 Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means 8 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. 9 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show. 10 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: Huge developments in the Red Sea. You guys will recall 11 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: that the Huthis have been basically blocking traffic through the 12 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 1: Red Sea. The US has formed this sort of very 13 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 1: weak coalition and a lot of countries haven't wanted to 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,120 Speaker 1: be involved with it. But the UK is standing strong 15 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 1: alongside of US, and so the US and British Naval 16 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: Force is actually shot down twenty one drones and missiles 17 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,479 Speaker 1: fired by Yemen based hoo Thies on Tuesday towards the 18 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: southern Red Sea. We have the scent calm announcement here. 19 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: We can put this up on the screen, so hooth 20 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: the attack on international show shipping, they say. On January ninth, 21 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: at approximately nine to fifteen pm local time, Iranian backted 22 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: hoo Thie's launched a complex attack of Iranian designed one 23 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,639 Speaker 1: way attack UAV's, anti ship cruise missiles and an anti 24 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 1: ship ballistic missile from Houthy controlled areas of Yemen into 25 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: the southern Red Sea towards international shipping lanes where dozens 26 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 1: of merchant vessels were transitting. Eighteen OWA UAVs, two anti 27 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: ship cruise missiles and one anti ship ballistic missile were 28 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: shot down by a combined effort of FA eighteen's from 29 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: USS to whit D Eisenhower, USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason, 30 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 1: and the UK's HMS Diamond. This is the twenty sixth 31 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: Hoothy attack on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea 32 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 1: since November nineteenth. There were no injuries or damage reported. 33 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 1: On January three, fourteen countries, including the US, issued a 34 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 1: joint statement stating the Houthis will bear the responsibility for 35 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 1: the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, 36 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: or the free flow of commerce in the region's critical waterways. 37 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: So that is a bit of a threat there at 38 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: the end. In terms of what the Huthis are saying, 39 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: they said that in a statement that they attacked an 40 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,519 Speaker 1: American ship as part of a quote preliminary response to 41 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 1: the US shooting down three of its ships on December 42 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: thirty one. In that incident, we killed ten people. The 43 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: Houthis carried out a joint military operation with a large 44 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: number of ballistic and naval missiles and drones against the 45 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 1: US ship it accused of providing support to Israel. They 46 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 1: go on to say the many armed forces continue to 47 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: prevent Israeli ships or those heading to the ports of 48 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 1: Occupied Palestine from navigating in the Arabian and Red Seas 49 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: until the aggression stops in the siege of our steadfast 50 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,519 Speaker 1: brothers in the Gaza Strip is lifted. So just making 51 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: it very clear, this is tied to what is happening 52 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 1: in the Gaza Strip. 53 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, and unfortunately, though the escalization ladder continues to climb, 54 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: a lot of these Israeli ships are not actually transitting, 55 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: you know, most of the cargo at this point, it 56 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 2: seems in some ninety percent has been redirected around the 57 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 2: Horn of Africa. The reason that the UK is involved 58 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: here is actually goes back to a lot of their 59 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 2: historical dominance colonialism in the region and their historical pledge 60 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 2: to protect some of this on top of the US 61 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 2: Mission Navy specifically in order to protect the free flows 62 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:06,079 Speaker 2: of commerce. 63 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 3: The big problem here, and we. 64 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 2: Can go ahead and as we saw it with the 65 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 2: British Defense Secretary, is that by telegraphing that we will 66 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: be bombing yemen Y territory, now we are going right 67 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 2: back to the original problem where look, I have no 68 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 2: issue bombing who these if they're going to fire on 69 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 2: a US flag ship. The problem just comes back to 70 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 2: will this actually stop the bombing? And what we've seen 71 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 2: consistently through the Houthi campaign is that Saudi Arabia can drop, 72 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 2: you know, the entire arsenal that the US supplied them 73 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 2: with pretty sophisticated military, who these have no air power, 74 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 2: but they were still capable of amassing all of these 75 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 2: ballistic missiles which were you know, really threatened Saudi territory 76 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 2: in the Saudi military for quite some time, and it 77 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 2: would only more likely lead to some sort of escalation 78 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 2: in the waters in the Red Sea, which would only 79 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 2: dramatically increase the insurance rates, the price of commerce. I mean, 80 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: we're really stuck between a rock and a hard place 81 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 2: because clearly the military. 82 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 3: Action is tied to what's happening in Gaza. 83 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 2: Now we say we're just not going to you know, 84 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: we're not going to do anything about what's happening in Gaza. 85 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 2: So now we're tied into this coalition. The real problem 86 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: I thought with the coalition is that it's not just 87 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 2: the US and the UK, which almost goes back to 88 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 2: like some Iraq war thing. It's like France and all 89 00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 2: of these other countries which have just as much of 90 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: an incentive in order to defend commerce on the high seas. 91 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 2: They don't want to join us in a military I mean, honestly, Crystal, 92 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 2: we had more military support in our Anti Isis coalition 93 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 2: than we do want to something like this is extraordinary 94 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 2: because frankly, there's a way more at stake whenever it 95 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 2: comes to this than whatever the hell was going on 96 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 2: in Syria at the times. Honestly, from a military perspective, 97 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 2: strategic this has been a disaster for US. 98 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: There is essentially no one in the region who has 99 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:50,919 Speaker 1: joined US. Bachering is the only regional ally that is 100 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 1: publicly involved. That's number one. Number two. Some of the 101 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: countries that originally said all right, will help you ount 102 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: back down and did not want to be associated with 103 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 1: this in any regard Number three, I will not be 104 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: the first to point out that the US seems to 105 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: be much more concerned about container shipping than they are 106 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: about the Palestinian babies being massacred in the Gaza strip. 107 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: And number four, yes, they are in a between a 108 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: rock and hard places. You put at Sager. It is 109 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: a position completely of their own making. So, as we 110 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: covered previously in the week, there's all these leaks from 111 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: the defense establishment and the intelligence establishment freaking out about 112 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: the possibility of a regional war and warning that especially 113 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: the escalation with the Huthis, but in particular the escalation 114 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 1: in Lebanon, which we're going to talk about in just 115 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 1: a moment, that this does not end in a good 116 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: place for the US period. And yet, nowhere in this 117 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: coverage does it suggest the very obvious answer that all 118 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: of these hostilities go away overnight if you have a ceasefire, 119 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: and that the US has a lot of say in 120 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: whether or not there is a ceasefire. We know when 121 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: there was even a temple ceasefire, and this is a 122 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,320 Speaker 1: point that doctor Treet de Parsi has been making. We 123 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: know that this is the case because these attacks slowed 124 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:09,919 Speaker 1: in some instances completely stopped during that period of the 125 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: temporary ceasefire. So while they're wing there, Oh my god, 126 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: what do we do and how do we deal with this? 127 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 1: And we don't have this coalition is in backing us, 128 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 1: and maybe we've got to hit Yemen directly, they leave 129 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 1: off the table the very obvious answer to avoiding a 130 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: gigantic war that inevitably pulls US into it, which is 131 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: to push Israel for a ceasefire using our immense leverage 132 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 1: in the region. So I just mentioned we also have 133 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 1: huge escalation. I mean, at this point you can't say, like, oh, 134 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,119 Speaker 1: it might be a multiple front war. The Israelis themselves 135 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: are saying they're at fighting a seven front war and 136 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: taking action on six of those fronts. So they are 137 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: warning these Raelis are now warning hospitals in Israel to 138 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: brace for casualties as a result of the escalation between 139 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: Israel and Hesbela and southern Lebanon. Let's take a listen 140 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:56,279 Speaker 1: to that. 141 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 4: Put this in its proper proportion. Israeli hospitals have and 142 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 4: working with the idea of Home Front Command to drill 143 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 4: these scenarios for years. So the protocol of drilling. It 144 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 4: is not new and they have to be ready for 145 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 4: that kind of scenario because at any time we could 146 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 4: have entered into a full scale war situation with Kasabala. 147 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 4: The timing is of course relevant because we are facing 148 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 4: continuous exchanges of fire with Kibella, and the scenario of 149 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 4: this escalating into a much larger conflict is very much 150 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 4: on the table. 151 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 3: It's possible. 152 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 4: So we don't know what the breaking point is, Okay, 153 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 4: we have to be honest and say we don't know 154 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 4: when that moment will come. When we're going from low 155 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 4: intensity to high intensity, when it's you know, when it's 156 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 4: dozens of rockets or drones to thousands Kisbala. Can you know, 157 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 4: hit northern Israel with ten thousand rockets a day in 158 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,040 Speaker 4: a full scale war situation. It can hit central Israel 159 00:07:49,040 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 4: with at least a thousand rockets a day in a 160 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:54,200 Speaker 4: full scale war situation. We don't know when or if 161 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 4: that moment will come, and it's absolutely the duty of 162 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 4: hospitals and emergency responders and the idea of Home Front 163 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 4: comme man to make sure that if it does come, 164 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 4: that they're ready. 165 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: Net Nyiaho of course, has every incentive to expand this war, 166 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: to keep the war going indefinitely, to try to have 167 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: something that he can bring back to the Israeli people 168 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 1: that he can call a quote unquote victory, especially as 169 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: he comes under increasing pressure within his own coalition and 170 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: also from the Israeli public. And we have one more, 171 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: yet another warning from a prominent official. Put this up 172 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: on the screen. This is War Cabinet member Benny Gantz, 173 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: who is saying the Lebanese government should think about whether 174 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: they are Iran's front shield. If Heswilla continues, we will 175 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: act in southern Lebanon as we act in the northern 176 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: Gaza strip. This is not a threat to Lebanon. It 177 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 1: is a promise to the residents of the north. And 178 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of language to Sager that 179 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 1: has made it very clear that one of the intentional 180 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,319 Speaker 1: goals of the action of the you know, assault on 181 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: Gaza is not this quote unquote hunt for Hamas, but 182 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: it's to show that they are so brutal to act 183 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: as a deterrent to groups like Kazbola. And so that's 184 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: why from the beginning you've had this language of like, hey, 185 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: we could turn Beirut into Gaza City. We could copy 186 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: paste what we did in Gaza to Lebanon. That is 187 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,840 Speaker 1: part of the strategy here is to be as destructive 188 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 1: and as horrifying as possible, so that you know, groups 189 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: like Hezbola and the Lebanese people react and horror to 190 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: the idea that that could be done to them as well. 191 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know, if you look through history, 192 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 2: it's not exactly a novel military strategy certainly has worked, 193 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 2: I guess in the past. The problem that they have 194 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 2: is that Hesbola is not hamas you know, the people, 195 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 2: as he even lays out in there, got thousand rockets 196 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 2: a day. 197 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 3: Rockets are the least of their problems. 198 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 2: They've got actual missiles that would have to deal with 199 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 2: these are you know, missile defense systems and others. Already, 200 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 2: what's happening in the Red Sea that we originally opened 201 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 2: with crystal is a far more technologically advanced war than 202 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 2: what's currently happening in Gaza Gazla is actually much more 203 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 2: of a you know, older style of conflict. Yes, they 204 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,439 Speaker 2: have twenty first twenty first century technology, but only on 205 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 2: one side in Hesbola, where that's not what we're talking 206 00:09:55,040 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 2: about at all. In some military analysts and others that 207 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: I've looked at, including people who are pro Israel, people 208 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 2: who are warning. Jonathan Schanzer we played on our Tuesday 209 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 2: show he would like in the Hesbula military arsenal to 210 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,199 Speaker 2: that of a small European nation. So we need to 211 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 2: understand that the parity of military capabilities and technology is 212 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: so much higher. That was underscored on our Monday show 213 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 2: when one hundred Idea of soldiers were wounded in a 214 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 2: single day, the vast majority of them by Hesbala. So 215 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 2: that shows us that, you know, we can have no 216 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: real hot war, but the mere anti tank missiles that 217 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 2: they have and have been exchanging fire with the Idea 218 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 2: have been enormously destructive. So the overall impact right now 219 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 2: on global shipping, on the global situation and others is 220 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 2: a level of immense charity, and it also shows us 221 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 2: one of the warnings, you know, that there's. 222 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:42,479 Speaker 3: Been a lot of triumphalism. 223 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 2: People have said, oh see, you know, nothing is emerged 224 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 2: into a full blown war. We are only three months 225 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 2: removed from October seventh, and we're just not that far, 226 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 2: frankly into this conflict. Part of the reason why I've 227 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,560 Speaker 2: we're so critical I guess in the beginning is because 228 00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 2: it was so clear I would say October what twentieth 229 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: or so on from the ground invasion. I'm like, okay, 230 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 2: you have just now committed the same mistakes as Iraq. 231 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 2: It took us nine months to a year for us 232 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 2: to reap the reward of our invasion. You know, it 233 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 2: took a long time before we really start to see 234 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 2: the massive strategic follow I would. 235 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:17,319 Speaker 3: Honestly argue that most of what we're seeing today. 236 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 2: Is continuing of that, and that's twenty years or so 237 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 2: after they're removed. So when we think about, you know, 238 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,559 Speaker 2: what the timescale is here and what they have opened 239 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 2: themselves up to, this is just the you know, the 240 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 2: beginning of the beginning. We really have no idea what 241 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,559 Speaker 2: the diplomatic situation, the military situation is. So I think 242 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 2: it is a very very dangerous moment here for the 243 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: United States, specifically with regard to the global shipping standard, 244 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 2: because what we can see there is that that has 245 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 2: the most potential to massively change and impact the overall 246 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 2: US economy. And look, let's I mean, you said, you know, 247 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 2: care more about shipping. I mean, to be honest, we 248 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 2: should care more about shipping, because that's what's going to 249 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 2: affect us directly in our lives, that would actually massively 250 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 2: impact the overall US economy, the glow Mobal situation, And 251 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 2: that's what makes people care. That's what makes people be like, hey, 252 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 2: what is going on here? Why can't I get extra 253 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 2: y or z? It seems from the grocery store. 254 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 1: Letting people care about the images of horror that they 255 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: see coming out above Palestine. It's about what actually funded 256 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: by our taxpayer dollars. And if you don't care about that, 257 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 1: you might care about the fact that you are radicalizing 258 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: millions of people to absolutely hate the United States of 259 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: America because of these thousand pound bombs that. 260 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 2: Are being dropped on But these are not concepts which 261 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 2: directly affect us in the moment. 262 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 3: What I'm saying is that you know, in generally it 263 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:31,000 Speaker 3: does well. 264 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: There are lots of people who are very affected by it, 265 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: but it's not the. 266 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 2: Vast majority of the American public, all right, So the 267 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 2: vast majority of the American public is definitely going to 268 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 2: carry if the majority. 269 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: Of the American public wants the cease fire, but not 270 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: exactly this reason, because they don't want to be party 271 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 1: to atrocities. 272 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 2: There are things that I want. Then there are also 273 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 2: the things that of the there are one hundred things 274 00:12:48,920 --> 00:12:50,960 Speaker 2: that I want, there's maybe one that I'm going to 275 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: act the most on right of that one. That's how 276 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,520 Speaker 2: most people think in terms of priorities. There are a 277 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:57,599 Speaker 2: lot of things on your priority list. Yes, majority of 278 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 2: Americans want to sease fire. I don't disagree with you 279 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 2: at all. But if you were to look, let's say, 280 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 2: at pollium, what is most important to you, it's not 281 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 2: even going to be what I don't know. 282 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: I don't If you ask people, do you care more 283 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 1: about the babies who are being bombed in the Gaza 284 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 1: strip or shipping lanes in the Red Sea right now? 285 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: What do you think they're going to want? 286 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 2: I would flip it and I'd say, do you care 287 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 2: more about what you're paying, you know, at the grocery 288 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 2: store for oil and for that other thing, or for 289 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 2: whatever's going on in a third world conflict which doesn't 290 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 2: affect you. 291 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 3: I would absolutely say number one. I don't think I'm 292 00:13:24,480 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 3: alone in that. I mean, and I think that bears 293 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 3: out the number of. 294 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: People who have said that foreign affairs is their top 295 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: priority in this coming election is effectively unprecedented right now 296 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: because of the concern of what's being done in the 297 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 1: Gaza Strip. 298 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's not Again, the economy is still going 299 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: to be number one. I mean, I'm just all to 300 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 2: what is actually impactful. 301 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: If you actually, if your number one concern is the frickin' 302 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: shipping lanes, then there's a very clear answer here that 303 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: dovetails alongside the concern over the babies who are being 304 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 1: massacred in the Gaza Strip, and that's a ceasefire, and 305 00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 1: that's left out of our government's calculation. You know, there 306 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: was reporting that people in the Biden ministry like they 307 00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: don't even try to make this case to Joe Biden 308 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: because he's basically so obstinately against it, period, end of story, 309 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: that he's willing to risk a massive war in order 310 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: to unconditionally support Israel. It's left out of the media 311 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: context when these articles are written about like, oh my god, 312 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: they don't know what to do and this is so 313 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: bad and the military is really concerned about what's going 314 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: to happen. That context is left out completely. The Hoothi's 315 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 1: have put on statement saying listen, we're upholding our part 316 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: of the Genocide Convention and our obligation to not only 317 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: not participate in genocide, which of the US is doing 318 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: right now, but to try to prevent it. So that's 319 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: the big picture here that I don't want to get lost, 320 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: is that all of these various concerns, which are all important, 321 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: I don't want to diminish the costs that could escalate 322 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: as a result of the Hoothy's actions here, All of 323 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: these various concerns are solved by having a ceasefire in 324 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: the Gaza. 325 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 3: Stress. 326 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: No, I don't think I actually don't disagree with anything 327 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: that you said at all. I'm more talking about in 328 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 2: terms of how it would impact overall US politics, and 329 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 2: so I don't disagree in terms of our obfiscation of 330 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 2: the way that we think and talk about the conflict 331 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 2: and about our overall leverage of Israel. 332 00:15:09,200 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 3: Actually I'm totally in agreement, you know. 333 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 2: If anything, what we have signed ourselves up for is 334 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 2: both unconditional support for Israel and unconditional bearing of all 335 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 2: of the costs, which is what drives me the most 336 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: insane about the entire US relationship with Israeli, a pittily 337 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 2: little country out in the middle of nowhere that somehow 338 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 2: all of US politics has to evolve around, including the 339 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 2: US military, which is nuts, you know, when we think 340 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 2: about it from. 341 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 3: A strategic position. 342 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 2: If anything, you could make a case that Ukraine matters, 343 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 2: and I don't even think that matters more than Israel. 344 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 2: And I don't even think Ukraine matters all that much 345 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 2: to overall US national security. So it's a difference in perspective, 346 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 2: I think, the two ways that we're looking at it, 347 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 2: But regardless, you generally arrive at the same conclusion, which 348 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 2: is that the US is not impacting the situation in 349 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 2: Israel enough, both to its own benefit. There are humanitarian 350 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 2: side effects to that as well. But the problem that 351 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 2: I see right now is that we don't with Biden 352 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 2: in particular, and a lot of the overall US establishments, 353 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 2: they're so whole still committed that they have not even 354 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: allowed themselves to look outside of whatever was, you know, 355 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 2: exists within the overton window of pre October seventh. They're 356 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 2: not updating their thinking and their language in this overall 357 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 2: strategic situation. Frankly, you see the same, you know, in 358 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 2: terms of thinking about Ukraine. It's like everybody thinks it's 359 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 2: like nineteen seventy two in the middle of the Cold Wars, Like, no, 360 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 2: we're living in a totally different global environment. And I think, 361 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,400 Speaker 2: you know, post October seventh, this is something that we're 362 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 2: probably about to get to with the genocide trial happening 363 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 2: right now at the ICJ, we need to really prepare 364 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 2: ourselves for the fact that Israel is not the Israeli before. 365 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 2: Maybe they're okay with that, but I don't think a 366 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 2: lot of people in that country have grappled with that. 367 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 3: And same with this country in terms of our relationship 368 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 3: with Joe. 369 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: Biden still thinks it's like nineteen seventies, that is Reel 370 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 1: Goldenmeyer's Prime Minister. And I mean, in some ways, as 371 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 1: we've said before, and as Darryl Cooper always points out, 372 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: like the right wingers like Netanyahu and Smotrich and Ben Gavie, 373 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: they're the more honest narrators of what Israel actually is 374 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 1: and what the goals really are. So there is a 375 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: difference obviously between Netanyahu and previous prime ministers who are 376 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,959 Speaker 1: actually interested in the Oslo piece process, etc. But a 377 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: lot of the sort of bedrock direction of Israel has 378 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: not really changed. It's just that the US political class, 379 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: and especially Joe Biden, has constructed some fantasy Israel that 380 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: has really never existed in his head and certainly does 381 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: not exist today. So let's move on to the ICJ 382 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 1: hearings which started this morning. So let me explain a 383 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: little bit of how this is going to work in 384 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: a little bit of the context and backstory here. In fact, 385 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: if we can put up the writer's tear sheet first here, guys, 386 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:41,920 Speaker 1: that give some of the contexts, and then I'll get 387 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,000 Speaker 1: to a little bit of playing some of the sound 388 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: from the hearing. So this is via Haretz Reuter's reports 389 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: at South Africa and Israel exchanging allegations on the eve 390 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,920 Speaker 1: of hearings at the UN's Top Court, which will hear 391 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: South Africa's claim that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians 392 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: in the Gaza War. They're going to hold season on 393 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 1: Thursday and Friday in a case brought in late December, 394 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: accusing Israel failing to uphold its obligations under the nineteen 395 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 1: forty eight Genocide Convention. Okay, on the South African side, 396 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 1: they are saying, as a people who once tasted the 397 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:18,119 Speaker 1: bitter fruits of dispossession, discrimination, racism and state sponsored violence. 398 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: We are clear that we will stand on the right 399 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: side of history. And Israeli government spokesperson responded that the 400 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 1: State of Israel will appear before the ICJ to dispel 401 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: South Africa's absurd blood libel as pretoria gives political and 402 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 1: legal cover to the Hamas rapist regime. There will be 403 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: a panel of seventeen judges, including South Africa and Israel 404 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 1: can both appoint one judge themselves. Those are called ad 405 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: hoc justices, and each judge represents a different nation. Actually, 406 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 1: the US judge is sort of leading the proceedings and 407 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: a ruling on the provisional measures could be expected later 408 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 1: this month. So what they're arguing right now is not 409 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 1: the merits of the case, trying to meet a legal 410 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:06,360 Speaker 1: standard of it is plausible that genocide is being committed here, 411 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 1: that it's plausible, And South Africa is pushing for effectively 412 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: an injunction where the ICJ would order Israel to cease 413 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: all activities that are furthering the harm of the Palestinian people. Now, 414 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: Israel is a signatory to the Genocide Convention. The US 415 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: as a signatory to the Genocide Convention, and although our 416 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: complicity here won't be a center of these hearings. You know, 417 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: they're clear follow on ramifications for us since we are 418 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 1: the ones supplying Israel with these bumps, so we are 419 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: not an uninvolved party here. This morning you had South 420 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: Africa presenting their side of the case. I did a 421 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: breakdown over the weekend of the eighty four page filing 422 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 1: that they had submitted to the court giving their analysis 423 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 1: of both the actions that are being taken that they 424 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: say are consistent with violation of the Genocide Convention, as 425 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: well as statements from various minister's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya, 426 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,679 Speaker 1: who various defense ministers as well, and soldiers rank and 427 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,679 Speaker 1: file soldiers on the ground that they say demonstrate genocidal 428 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: intent as well. So that's sort of the backstory here. 429 00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: This morning we got to hear South Africa's case that 430 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 1: they are making for this injunction. Let's take a listen 431 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: to a little bit of that. 432 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 5: In the first three weeks alone following seven October, Israel 433 00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 5: deployed six thousand bombs per week at least two hundred times. 434 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 5: It has deployed two thousand pound bombs in southern areas 435 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 5: of Palestine, designated as safe. These bombs have also decimated 436 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 5: the North, including refugee camps. 437 00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 6: Two thousand pound bombs are some of the biggest and 438 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:59,159 Speaker 6: most destructive bombs available. They are dropped by lethal fighter 439 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,639 Speaker 6: jets that I used to strike targets on the ground, 440 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:09,120 Speaker 6: by one of the world's most resourced armies. Israel has 441 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 6: killed and unparalleled and unprecedented number of civilians with the 442 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 6: full knowledge of how many civilian lives each bomb will take. 443 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,880 Speaker 1: So Saga actually watched these hearings this morning. They had 444 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: a South Africa had a number of different individuals making 445 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: the case. Israel make their case in defense of these 446 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: allegations tomorrow, so I'll make sure to tune into that 447 00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: as well, so we can break that down for you too. 448 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 1: Many of the numbers, statistics, the facts about the percentage 449 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: of the killings that are women and children, the amount 450 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 1: of destruction, the imposition of a siege which has led 451 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: to hunger, starvation conditions, and also the lack of medical supplies, 452 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: the complete collapse of the healthcare system. We've covered a 453 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 1: lot of this extensively on the show, so you'll be 454 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 1: familiar with a lot of the arguments that are laid 455 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 1: out here. They also spent quite a bit of time. 456 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: I'm talking about the various statements that, as I mentioned before, 457 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: they claim establish intent. They spent in particular a lot 458 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 1: of time on comments that we played at the beginning 459 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: of the war when Netnahu himself compared the Palestinians to Amelech, 460 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: biblical foes of Israel, who they are charged with destroying 461 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: in their entirety, including the camel, including the oxen, including 462 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: the suckling, et cetera, et cetera. And then they showed 463 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: how soldiers on the ground took these comments seriously, and 464 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 1: we are told that part of Israel's defense will be 465 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: all these comments. People are just popping off. They don't 466 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,400 Speaker 1: really mean it, you know, this is just populous rhetoric 467 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: that doesn't really mean. They don't really mean what they're saying. 468 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,679 Speaker 1: And yet they showed soldiers who are on the ground 469 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: repeating the words of net Yahoo and then using that 470 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: justification to enact and celebrate war crimes that they're committing 471 00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,679 Speaker 1: they're on the ground. So I thought that connection was 472 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: sort of novel in some thing, that a case that 473 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: I hadn't seen fully flushed down before. 474 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, when I was reading through. So the 475 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 2: Article two of the Convention. I know you went through this, 476 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 2: but the Article two parts C is deliberately inflicting on 477 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 2: the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its 478 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 2: physical destruction in. 479 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 3: Whole or in part. 480 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 2: The biggest problem they have is actually a lot of 481 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 2: this is really fascinating to think because so many turning 482 00:23:19,359 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 2: points happened from October seven prior to the actual invasion 483 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 2: and the implication in the implication of putting on that 484 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 2: siege of all of Gaza and eventually then bargaining about 485 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,719 Speaker 2: right of return for people and exchange for hostages. That 486 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,400 Speaker 2: seems to me like the biggest problem that they're going 487 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 2: to have. We should also, though, be honest here in 488 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,479 Speaker 2: terms of what the ICJ and all that implication is. 489 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 2: They have no enforcement mechanism. So this is the bigger 490 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,119 Speaker 2: problem with the entire United Nations. It's like I was 491 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 2: reading that in two thousand and four, the ICJ said 492 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 2: that the offence between Gaza and Israel needs to be 493 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 2: taken down. 494 00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,719 Speaker 3: Okay, well it's still up. Nobody can do anything about that. 495 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 2: To a certain extent, you know, the UN and international 496 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 2: law and all that other stuff is fake because it 497 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 2: all comes down to the enforcement. But on another extent, 498 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 2: in the rules based technical international order, at least allegedly, 499 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 2: what matters more is becoming a pariah state and losing 500 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 2: your overall trading relationships. 501 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 3: And this is something you and I were talking about 502 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 3: a little bit before. 503 00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 2: But if you do look at the largest top fifteen 504 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 2: trade partners of Israel, number one is the United States, 505 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,639 Speaker 2: but number two is Germany, Number two, number five or 506 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 2: whatever is France. Huge number of G seven nations in there, 507 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 2: and the rest of the G seven, they're very much 508 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 2: more likely to take something like this seriously, specifically because 509 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,960 Speaker 2: if you think about it, the European Union and many 510 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 2: of these other European countries are much more subject to 511 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 2: respecting multilateralism international institutions than the US is. So they 512 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 2: may not lose their number one, but if they, let's say, 513 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,280 Speaker 2: have a forty percent reduction in trade or maybe thirty 514 00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,440 Speaker 2: percent or whatever, it's still devastating to the overall economy. 515 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 2: Not to mention visa rights. You know, Israeli citizens are 516 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 2: all over the world. I mean, what if they're not 517 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 2: able to travel, freedom of you know, moving about and 518 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 2: all that's massive implications. You know, it's an underrated part 519 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 2: of being an Americans. You can mostly just land in 520 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,159 Speaker 2: whatever country you want. But if you're Israeli, I mean 521 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 2: that could be a big problem for you. 522 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, ask a Russian, you know what it's like to 523 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 3: fly through is stun bolt. That's exactly I think. 524 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,119 Speaker 2: That's the big the biggest problem of this. Well, you know, 525 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 2: you can say whatever Yugoslavia, I mean, it took forever 526 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 2: or even try and bring those people to justice, and 527 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 2: their country didn't exist anymore. Or if we think about 528 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 2: Rwanda or some of the other fallouts from there. Israel 529 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 2: is a powerful nation there the sponsorship of the global superpower. 530 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 2: They won't face any real like quote unquote actual consequences 531 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 2: even if they were to be found guilty. But in 532 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 2: the soft power realm, I certainly think this could be. 533 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:44,600 Speaker 3: A bread power. 534 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,399 Speaker 1: My initial reaction when I saw South Africa's filing was like, Okay, 535 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 1: that's nice, but it's not going to matter at all, right, 536 00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,600 Speaker 1: because I mean, we see the US and our allies 537 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: we operate with impunity. We make the rules, we ignore 538 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,639 Speaker 1: them when it's convenient, we try to weaponize them when 539 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: it's convenient, when it's against our adversaries. We see the 540 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 1: way that this plays out, and nowhere is that more 541 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 1: the case than with Israel, as you're pointing out, historically 542 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 1: for many years at this point, what sort of changed 543 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: my thinking about like, oh, this could actually, this could 544 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,440 Speaker 1: have some bite was the Israeli reaction. Yeah, because they 545 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: started putting out these sort of panicked missives, urgent cables 546 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: to their embassies around the world, trying to get countries 547 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: to come on board and issue these statements very similar 548 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,119 Speaker 1: to the statements our government was making about how this 549 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: is meritless and it's antisemitic and et cetera, et cetera. 550 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: So that showed me that they were concerned about it. 551 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,399 Speaker 1: The fact that they're even going to defend themselves shows 552 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 1: a measure of seriousness about it. And then you think 553 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 1: about it, Okay, well, what do they have to lose? 554 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 1: As you SAIDs Are, I mean, France has already said 555 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,879 Speaker 1: they're going to abide by whatever the ruling is here. 556 00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 1: So you know, we're kind of on an island in 557 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 1: terms of our willingness to just flagrantly disregard what the 558 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 1: ICJ rules. And even with us, you know, we have 559 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 1: laws on the book, like the Laky act that are 560 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 1: designed to to prevent US weapons from going to massacre civilians. 561 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,600 Speaker 1: And so even though our State Department is saying like, oh, 562 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:11,959 Speaker 1: we're not going to look into whether there are any 563 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: war crimes here, but we don't think there are, and 564 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: we're just going to continue business as usual. Actually we're 565 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 1: going to expedite these weapons shipments. It gives those who 566 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:23,040 Speaker 1: are dissenting voices a tool to use to try to 567 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: compel and try to pressure the US governmento Biden himself 568 00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:31,160 Speaker 1: and to force a different direction. So it gives US 569 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 1: dissidents a tool to use. And you know, Israel is 570 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 1: a global nation. It is you know, very proud of 571 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 1: its high tech sector. It is very reliant and very 572 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: covetous of foreign direct investment. This has been an incredibly 573 00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: important part of building Israel into a truly, you know, 574 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: first world developed economy. And so for them to face 575 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 1: the prospect of becoming like South Africa was in the 576 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 1: waning days of apartheid, this sort of paria nation where 577 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 1: no longer, this is what they said in Horatz and Anjaretes, 578 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 1: Lit's no longer are people talking about us as occupiers. 579 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 1: They're talking about us as genocide with the words ethnic 580 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: cleensic with the words genocide, like this is a very 581 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 1: different deal. So those things have apparently impressed the Israelis 582 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,719 Speaker 1: as being serious and being significant. We can put up 583 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 1: on the screen this actually list has changed the number 584 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 1: of countries that are supporting South Africa's case here this 585 00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:35,159 Speaker 1: number rose overnight, but as of yesterday you had Malaysia, Turkey, Jordan, Bolivia, Venezuela, Pakistan, Bangladesh, 586 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: the Maldives, Namibia, Nicaragua. You had Brazil join overnight, and 587 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: significantly you had the Arab League, which includes Saudi Arabia, 588 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:49,120 Speaker 1: very noteworthy here joining on to this case. So I 589 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: believe there are thirteen countries individually signing on to the case, 590 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: and then you have the Arab League, and there's another 591 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,959 Speaker 1: Islamic Country Association that includes fifty seven seven different nations 592 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 1: that have signed on as well, and apparently Saga. The 593 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: reason they do it that way is to try to 594 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: avoid the greatest opprobrium from the United States of America. 595 00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,040 Speaker 1: But think about Saudi. I mean this is Israel and 596 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,240 Speaker 1: Saudi have been the bedrock of our Middle Eastern policy forever, 597 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 1: and obviously we have this tight knit relationship with the Saudis. 598 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: We give them tons of money as well. They were 599 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 1: this close to normalizing relations with Israel before October seventh, 600 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 1: and now they're signing on to a case of genocide 601 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 1: against Israel at the ICJ. That is a dramatic turn. 602 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 3: Of the two. 603 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 2: Most important ones are listed. Number one is actually Turkey. 604 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 2: Turkey is one of their largest trading partners. Netanyahu and 605 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,200 Speaker 2: BBS to actually have a decent relationship, and they are 606 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 2: a member of NATO. 607 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 3: That's why that one matters. 608 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 2: I would actually say that probably the most important Saudi 609 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 2: Arabia and the Arab League, is going to be number two. 610 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 2: The reason why is that currently the US plan for 611 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 2: bringing an end to the war is to have Saudi 612 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 2: Arabia normalize relations with Israel officially as a continuation of 613 00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 2: the Abraham Accords, and then also include some sort of 614 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 2: language about a two state solution. So if I mean, 615 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 2: you can't really say that you're going to normalize relationships 616 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 2: with somebody if you say they're also committing genocide. 617 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 3: So it's gonna be a little bit of a difficulty. 618 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 2: I think the problem demonstrates also some of the Gordian knots. 619 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 2: I think that these people are in and to underscore 620 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 2: that I also agree. And before we're about to play this, 621 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 2: it's bbe basically walking back some of the things that 622 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 2: have been said in Israeli society. Is something that encouraged 623 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 2: to me when you were talking is it wouldn't Israel 624 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 2: doesn't even have to become a pariah state. I think 625 00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 2: I have to be sensitive and the way I talk 626 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,200 Speaker 2: about this spill, Let's be honest. The worst thing for 627 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 2: Israel is to them to be a normal state. 628 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:35,720 Speaker 3: What have they always been. 629 00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 2: They've been the home of the Jews post the genocide 630 00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,400 Speaker 2: by the Nazi regime, which has imbued them. I think 631 00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: let's all be honest with special status in the way 632 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 2: that they taught we were talked about in the United 633 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 2: States very very difficult, you know, conflation of saying anti 634 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,719 Speaker 2: Semitism is anti Zionism. 635 00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 3: And one of the things that. 636 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 2: They often reach for is are like, well, our ancestors 637 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 2: were killed by the Nazis, which has imbued them kind 638 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,200 Speaker 2: of with a special character where they've been ab to 639 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 2: brush off criticism I think for some seventy part of 640 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 2: their history. 641 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 3: I know this is very sensitive, but. 642 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 2: I think, you know, we have to be real about 643 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 2: the way that they've been able to have that. You know, 644 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:13,680 Speaker 2: the imbue around them of the post Nazi era was 645 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,320 Speaker 2: such that it gave them almost like a moral standing. 646 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 2: If they're just elevated to what I've always wanted to 647 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 2: treat Israel as, which is any other country, pluses and 648 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 2: minuses of our relationship with anybody else, well, I think 649 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,760 Speaker 2: that's the biggest problem, is that if they're just bumped 650 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 2: down from special status to normal status, well, that's actually 651 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 2: a big change, you know, in their global position for 652 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 2: a long time. And as you said, their economy, I mean, 653 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 2: it's not America. They've got big problems. You know, they're 654 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 2: surrounded on all sides. They Yeah, high tech sector is great, 655 00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:43,960 Speaker 2: but you've got to sell it to somebody, and you 656 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 2: can sell it to America, but America's not the whole world. 657 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 2: You've got to import a lot of oil you have, 658 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 2: you know, obviously, or you've got surrounded by the Red Sea. 659 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 2: They've had hostile partners for quite some time, but they 660 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 2: roughly were able to reach some sort of middle ground. 661 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 2: I think they threw a lot of that away and 662 00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 2: they don't really think about what the what is this 663 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 2: really said he looked like in twenty five years. I 664 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 2: think that is a fundamentally different question post October seventh. 665 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, which is a problem for them. 666 00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 2: But let's play a little bit of what bb Netanyah, 667 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 2: who said yesterday keep this in mind in English, tweeted 668 00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 2: out by the Israel account. Clearly this is targeted to 669 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 2: America and to the world. 670 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 3: Here's what he had to say. 671 00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 7: I would to make a few points absolutely clear. Israel 672 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 7: has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its 673 00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 7: civilian population. Israel is fighting Hamas terrorists, not the Palestinian population, 674 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,960 Speaker 7: and we are doing so in full compliance with international law. 675 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 7: The IDEF is doing its utmost to minimize civilian casualties, 676 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 7: while Hamas is doing its utmost to maximize them by 677 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 7: using Palestinian civilians as human shields. The IDEAF urges Palestinian 678 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 7: civilians to leave war zones by disseminating leaflets, making phone calls, 679 00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 7: providing safe passage corridors, while Hamas prevents Palestinians from leaving 680 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 7: at gunpoint and often with gun fire. Our goal is 681 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 7: to rid Gazza, Ramas service and free hour hostages. Once 682 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:09,000 Speaker 7: this is achieved, guys, it can be demilitarized and deradicalized, 683 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 7: thereby creating a possibility for a better future for Israel 684 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 7: and Palestinians alike. 685 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 2: Pretty shocking actually to hear that in English. I mean, 686 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 2: it's actually hasn't said that in a long time. We 687 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 2: went back and looked, and I don't think it's a 688 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,240 Speaker 2: coincidence necessarily, crystal that it does come the day before 689 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,360 Speaker 2: the beginning of these genocide proceedings. But I also think 690 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 2: a huge part of this is American domestic politics. Is 691 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 2: that Biden apparently behind the scenes. What I was reading 692 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 2: yesterday is that Blinken went there and Jake Sullivan and 693 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,680 Speaker 2: others with a message to Ben Gavie and others like 694 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 2: you guys got to cut this out. Like if you 695 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,000 Speaker 2: guys keep saying this stuff, and especially putting out these 696 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 2: tweets and all that screwing us in English, what are 697 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:47,760 Speaker 2: we supposed to do? I mean, you're causing big problems 698 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 2: for us back in America because everybody knows how to 699 00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 2: use Google Translate and everybody can read. So this was 700 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 2: a message effectively, what is he He's I wouldn't say 701 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 2: he's disavowing per se, because he's the master of saying 702 00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,200 Speaker 2: things in English and saying very different things in Hebrew. 703 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,360 Speaker 2: But it's different. It hasn't said it before. It hasn't 704 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 2: really been something that he said since around October fifteenth, 705 00:34:08,160 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 2: And the reason why is because he has such immense 706 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,920 Speaker 2: pressure from his right flank. Ironically, this type of statement, 707 00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,719 Speaker 2: which probably is better off for Israel in the long 708 00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,360 Speaker 2: run in terms of their international standing, makes his domestic 709 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 2: political situation. 710 00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 3: Much more precarious. 711 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 8: Yeah. 712 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 2: I don't know though, if Ben Giverer and if these 713 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 2: others or Smotrich would be willing to force him out 714 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 2: specifically for them disavowing their stated desire to reoccupy and 715 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 2: settle Gaza. 716 00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very hard to say. We don't know what 717 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 1: he's telling them. The Migapines like Wilsen, I guys, I 718 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,759 Speaker 1: gotta say this. I mean, he famously was caught on 719 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,799 Speaker 1: a hot Michael while ago like I know how to 720 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,239 Speaker 1: handle the Americans, don't worry about it. So in contrast 721 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 1: to these statements, we have a wrath of reporting about 722 00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,880 Speaker 1: how he wants to quote thin out the population of Gaza, 723 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 1: about how the preferred outcome is to push them out 724 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 1: into the Sinai desert about how they want to pressure 725 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 1: the US to leverage our aid dollars to regional countries 726 00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 1: to pressure them into accepting refugees. We have reporting that 727 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: they have been in active talks with the government of 728 00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:10,719 Speaker 1: Congo about accepting refugees. So the reporting that exists, and 729 00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: the statements not just of Smotrich and Ben Gevie, but 730 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 1: other Lakud party members, other ministers in his own government 731 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 1: are directly at odds with these comments. So I would 732 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,160 Speaker 1: not take them all that seriously in terms of their content. 733 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:25,080 Speaker 1: I think the timing of them that you're pointing to 734 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,320 Speaker 1: sober is what's so significant here, Both that you had 735 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:33,640 Speaker 1: the US political class so humiliated and embarrassed by the 736 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 1: fact that Ben Gaverin's Motrich were just so brazen in 737 00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 1: what they're saying and repeatedly saying and making incredibly clear 738 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,880 Speaker 1: that ethnic cleansing is their goal, that they even felt 739 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:44,680 Speaker 1: the need to put out this statement of like, listen, 740 00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:47,640 Speaker 1: we don't support that, but also that's not the stated 741 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,279 Speaker 1: you know, that's not the policy of the Israeli government. Well, 742 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 1: there was no evidence that that wasn't the policy of 743 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,480 Speaker 1: the Israeli government. So perhaps the Israelis were pressured by 744 00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,360 Speaker 1: Blincoln or Biden, who actually hasn't talked to Netniahuo apparently 745 00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 1: in twenty days, but by blinking and others to put 746 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,920 Speaker 1: out some sort of ass covering statement. And then I 747 00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 1: do think the fact that this comes the day before 748 00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,520 Speaker 1: the ICJ trial commences is no accident. I mean, this 749 00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 1: is almost like cramming for the test the night before. 750 00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,640 Speaker 1: And you saw some other comments like this coming out 751 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:19,480 Speaker 1: from Israeli government officials. Us we're crimes, of course not 752 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,279 Speaker 1: of course, we're not at war with the Palestine and civilians. 753 00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 1: Very different from the seed of Amelek. These are human 754 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,560 Speaker 1: animals and they'll be treated as such. This we want 755 00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,279 Speaker 1: knock the twenty twenty three very different from the sort 756 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,839 Speaker 1: of comments that we have heard throughout this conflict, which 757 00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 1: again I think shows that while the ICJ doesn't have 758 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:41,839 Speaker 1: any enforcement mechanism, apparently Israel is at least somewhat concerned 759 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:47,279 Speaker 1: with what they may rule in this case, what might 760 00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,680 Speaker 1: happen here, Because as much as we would love to 761 00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:51,600 Speaker 1: imagine that this court is just going to look at 762 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 1: the case rule on the merits, we all know, just 763 00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:59,839 Speaker 1: like in American context, politics reign supreme, and that's why 764 00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,799 Speaker 1: the big Israeli push prior to this hearing was to 765 00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:07,439 Speaker 1: pressure countries around the world. And so you know, there's 766 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 1: we wanted to present you with both a counter argument 767 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 1: that you know, the ICJ will probably find that Israel 768 00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 1: is not plausibly committing genocide and will rule against South Africa, 769 00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 1: and also an argument that no, we actually think on 770 00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,560 Speaker 1: the merits they are going to side with South Africa 771 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,520 Speaker 1: in this case. Let's see which one of these do 772 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,279 Speaker 1: we have first? Is that Norm we've got up first here? Yes, 773 00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 1: Norm Finkelstein, who we've of course had on the show 774 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 1: multiple times, who is you know, life like his entire 775 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:38,080 Speaker 1: adult life has been spent devoted to this cause. In 776 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 1: understanding the nuances of it, he is actually very pessimistic 777 00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 1: that the ICJ is going to side with South Africa 778 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: because of the politics I was just alluding to. Let's 779 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:48,960 Speaker 1: take a listen to a bit of that. 780 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:53,640 Speaker 9: So on the merits, I would say, they make a 781 00:37:53,680 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 9: plausible case, but these things have never decide by the merits, 782 00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:06,240 Speaker 9: decide by the law. They're decided by politics. They can't 783 00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,720 Speaker 9: get around it. And so what do you have now? 784 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 9: The ICJ consists of fifteen judges. The fifteen judges comprise 785 00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:27,640 Speaker 9: the Security Council and ten other states. So Russia, China, 786 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 9: the US, the UK, and France, okay, the per five 787 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:40,239 Speaker 9: permanent members. They have representatives on the ICJ. So you 788 00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:44,320 Speaker 9: think yourself, oh great, okay, we lose with the US, 789 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 9: for sure, we lose with the UK for sure. France 790 00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,840 Speaker 9: is a question mark given the statements it's been making 791 00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,120 Speaker 9: about what's going on in gods, I would call it 792 00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:01,040 Speaker 9: the question mark. And then we go, oh great, we 793 00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,560 Speaker 9: have one question mark than we have Russia and China. 794 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,640 Speaker 9: And you think, okay, we have Russia and China our side. Well, 795 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 9: Russia is now being challenged. Are accused of genocide in Ukraine, 796 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,600 Speaker 9: and that's a pending case in the ICC, the International 797 00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,719 Speaker 9: Criminal Court. So do they want to open up the 798 00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:24,400 Speaker 9: Pandora's box of that genocide convention which might backfire and 799 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:29,720 Speaker 9: be used against them? Very unlikely. China, well, as everybody knows, 800 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:34,840 Speaker 9: China is being accused of genocide against Ugars. So do 801 00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,600 Speaker 9: they want to open up the Pandora's box of the 802 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 9: genocide Convention and it's used against them? I would say 803 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:49,200 Speaker 9: very unlikely. So right now, we have from one of five, 804 00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:57,560 Speaker 9: which is Friends maybe maybe then Germany's on this year. 805 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,040 Speaker 3: They vote for it. They they were then Israel on it. 806 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,080 Speaker 9: They were for the gender shite. 807 00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:05,840 Speaker 1: So he's doing the mout there and saying based on 808 00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:06,520 Speaker 1: the politics. 809 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,000 Speaker 3: I mean, I think he's right, doesn't look great. 810 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 2: Every single thing he laid out, especially with Russia and 811 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,359 Speaker 2: China and the contravening interest as to why both don't 812 00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:13,440 Speaker 2: want to open yeah thing up. 813 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:14,360 Speaker 3: I think he's startingly. 814 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:18,440 Speaker 1: I mean, the only question on that one is, you know, 815 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,520 Speaker 1: they're not afraid of being the impocritsy either, in plenty 816 00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,480 Speaker 1: of in plenty of instances. So do they see this 817 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,480 Speaker 1: more as a way to thumb their nose at the US, 818 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:29,080 Speaker 1: poke US in the eye? 819 00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 3: You know? 820 00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 1: Do they want to posture like, oh, look, they've you know, 821 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,040 Speaker 1: the US has dropped the ball on being the arbiters 822 00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:39,680 Speaker 1: of international law and standing up for humanitarian rights. So 823 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:40,759 Speaker 1: we're picking up the ball. 824 00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:41,560 Speaker 3: We're the real. 825 00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,880 Speaker 1: Beacons of humanitarianism in the world. I think that's possible. 826 00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,800 Speaker 1: But I also think that norms analysis is very possible 827 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:48,200 Speaker 1: as well. 828 00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,000 Speaker 3: Certainly we have the counter case. 829 00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, so international law expert Francis Boyle. It played this 830 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,200 Speaker 1: on Counterpoints yesterday, but I wanted to highlight it as well. 831 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,320 Speaker 1: He's argued successfully at the ICJ multiple times in fact 832 00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,640 Speaker 1: and specific on the Genocide Convention, so he is like 833 00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,399 Speaker 1: probably the most expert person on this that you could 834 00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: possibly imagine, and he believes quite strongly that South Africa 835 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,839 Speaker 1: will win this order against Israel. Let's take a listen 836 00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:14,120 Speaker 1: to bit of his analysis. 837 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,759 Speaker 8: I was the first lawyer ever to win anything under 838 00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:23,560 Speaker 8: the Genocide Convention from the International Court of Justice that 839 00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:29,040 Speaker 8: goes back to nineteen twenty one. I single handedly won 840 00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:33,360 Speaker 8: two World Court orders for the Republic of Bosnia Herzegovina 841 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:38,040 Speaker 8: against Yugoslavia to cease and desist from committing all acts 842 00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:44,040 Speaker 8: of genocide. And based on my careful review of all 843 00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:47,719 Speaker 8: the documents so far as submitted by the Republic of 844 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:53,200 Speaker 8: South Africa, I believe South Africa will win an order 845 00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:58,200 Speaker 8: against Israel to cease and desist from committing all acts 846 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:03,560 Speaker 8: of genocide against the Palestinians. And under Article one of 847 00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:08,800 Speaker 8: the Genocide Convention, all contracting parties one hundred and fifty 848 00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:14,360 Speaker 8: three states will then be obliged quote to prevent unquote 849 00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 8: the genocide by Israel against the Palestinians. Second, when the 850 00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:25,720 Speaker 8: World Court gives this cease and desist order against Israel, 851 00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:33,680 Speaker 8: the Biden administration will stand condemned under Article three, paragraph 852 00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:41,080 Speaker 8: E of the Genocide Convention that criminalizes complicity in genocide. 853 00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,040 Speaker 1: So he basically makes the case like listen. Based on 854 00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:49,440 Speaker 1: my expert opinion and historic knowledge of the cases, I've argued, 855 00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,399 Speaker 1: this is even more clear cut than the victors. He's 856 00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,400 Speaker 1: victories he's been able to obtain. And Sagera, I think 857 00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,960 Speaker 1: he points on something really important there which is worth underscoring. 858 00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,120 Speaker 1: That is, you know, if there is an order issued 859 00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:04,560 Speaker 1: here from the Court against Israel, that order isn't just 860 00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:07,319 Speaker 1: about what Israel has to do. It's also that all 861 00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,160 Speaker 1: signatories of which we are actually a signatory here, must 862 00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:15,040 Speaker 1: act to try to prevent the genocidal acts. And that's 863 00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:18,320 Speaker 1: I guess the quote unquote enforcement mechanism. It's obviously dependent 864 00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,760 Speaker 1: on those countries actually doing the thing that they're. 865 00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:21,319 Speaker 3: Supposed to do. 866 00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,520 Speaker 1: But that's why they're sort of broader implications here. I 867 00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:29,040 Speaker 1: have no idea. Yeah, right, I am total novice in 868 00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:32,760 Speaker 1: understanding the workings of the ICJ. I have no idea, 869 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:37,120 Speaker 1: just how nakedly political it is, what happens behind the scenes, 870 00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,960 Speaker 1: you know what the precedents are. I really, you know, 871 00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,200 Speaker 1: can only take the opinions of people I respect, like 872 00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,759 Speaker 1: Francis Boyle and Norman Finkelstein. So there you go. Those 873 00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:48,000 Speaker 1: are the cases on either side. 874 00:43:48,040 --> 00:43:52,600 Speaker 2: My cynic's heart is with norm In general, my betting 875 00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:54,880 Speaker 2: on cynicism has worked out well for me in politics 876 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,440 Speaker 2: here everywhere. And I don't know, I don't see a 877 00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,439 Speaker 2: world where anyone allows happen. 878 00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:02,439 Speaker 3: But hey, who that will know, we'll see totally wrong. 879 00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,200 Speaker 1: We will. We will see what happens. And just lasting 880 00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,440 Speaker 1: on this. In terms of the timing, I mean, they're 881 00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:11,560 Speaker 1: having hearings today, tomorrow, some hearings over the weekend, and 882 00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,960 Speaker 1: then the expectation is that they will rule on this 883 00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,759 Speaker 1: temporary injunction in the next couple of weeks. Then there 884 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:18,759 Speaker 1: will be, you know, an argument on the merits that 885 00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,560 Speaker 1: will take multiple years, likely based on how this has 886 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,440 Speaker 1: played on in the past. But we actually should know 887 00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,280 Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks what happens with this specific 888 00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:25,560 Speaker 1: fase