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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot? They're up for running

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Speaker 2: a game.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 1: Sisting just glorious execution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shop of mine?

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Speaker 1: God buddy, And that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 4: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up.

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Speaker 4: I'm trying again.

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Speaker 5: The wall, It's left too, the wide eyed drill pibus,

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Speaker 5: How Old Earth, Big time Happens. Hello everybody, and welcome

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Speaker 5: back to Wondergo, the Sacerbating podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 5: My name is Michael Lee Buff and joining me today

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Speaker 5: are my friends and colleagues, BJ Cunningham coming to us

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Speaker 5: from Iowa, Anthony da Bundo. He's on assignment in England

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Speaker 5: for this one, so having some fun over there watching

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Speaker 5: some Premier League stuff. But our focus will shift away

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Speaker 5: from the Premier League into the Champions League for the midweek.

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Speaker 5: We got two semi final first legs and we will

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Speaker 5: start with Man City and Real Madrid. This is the

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Speaker 5: Tuesday kickoff at three pm City, our home favorites minus

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Speaker 5: two hundred, Real Madrid plus five fifty. The draw here

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Speaker 5: on the three way money line is plus three fifty

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Speaker 5: two Advanced City minus two forty five, Madrid coming back

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Speaker 5: plus one ninety five. I think this is going to

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Speaker 5: be a completely different challenge for Real Madrid compared to

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Speaker 5: what they just had to deal with against PSG and

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Speaker 5: then Chelsea. It's just you're playing City is just such

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Speaker 5: a different beast. You're not gonna see much of the ball.

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Speaker 5: They're gonna work, They're gonna pass you to death. But

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Speaker 5: Real Madrid should be in theory comfortable in those situations.

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Speaker 3: But I think City also.

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Speaker 5: Had the kind of luxury of playing Atletico Madrid before

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Speaker 5: this one too, which is like a decent tune up

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Speaker 5: for Real Madrid.

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Speaker 3: I'm assuming Real Madrid will sit.

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Speaker 5: Back and relax and try to absorb as much pressure

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Speaker 5: as possible and then hope Benzima connicct them a goal

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Speaker 5: or two here and get back to the burn and

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Speaker 5: bow in decent shape, which does kind of feel like

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Speaker 5: a you know, slow moving game here BJ. I think

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Speaker 5: That's where I'd go, maybe a bet on the draw,

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Speaker 5: but I'd be looking at the unders. Maybe maybe even

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Speaker 5: some like alt lines under minus one and a half

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Speaker 5: or something, because it does feel like this one is

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Speaker 5: going to be lumbering towards the final whistle.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, It's it's interesting because I would say

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Speaker 1: right now, I don't really know what to make of City,

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Speaker 1: like I wouldn't say that they're just incredibly dominant side

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Speaker 1: right now after especially after drawing with Liverpool, losing to

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Speaker 1: them three to two in the FA Cup semi finals,

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Speaker 1: and then obviously that second half over the second leg

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Speaker 1: against Athletico they were not the better side. So going

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Speaker 1: up against Real Madrid, I'm very very interested to see

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Speaker 1: how Real Madrid is going to set up. Are they

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Speaker 1: going to set up like they did in the first

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Speaker 1: leg against ps and try and play ultra defensive and

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Speaker 1: struggle to get out and transition because City is a

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Speaker 1: fantastic pressing team and can really suffocate you inside your

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Speaker 1: own inside your own final third that the way Chelsea

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Speaker 1: really can't. So I mentioned to see how Real Madrid

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Speaker 1: is able to react that because if you go back

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Speaker 1: to that first leg against Chelsea, they started out pretty poor,

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Speaker 1: like Chelsea was all over at the beginning. They got

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Speaker 1: one counter attack going forward and they got a Benzima

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Speaker 1: miracle header goal, and they were like, well, not really

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Speaker 1: a miracle, but you know, a very nice heading goal.

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Speaker 1: And they're like, oh, we can actually go out and counter,

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Speaker 1: like we can actually get out and transition and cause

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Speaker 1: some problems. And I'm wondering if they're gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to do that here because I mean, Pep, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what he's talking about. Injury crisis. I mean John

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Speaker 1: Stone's and Kyle Walker out, like, you know, everybody's going

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Speaker 1: through injuries at this point. But I just really don't

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Speaker 1: know where real Madrid is gonna do with this. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they were pretty lucky, honestly to get to this point.

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Speaker 1: I mean they've scored four point seven expected goals off

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Speaker 1: of eight and then allowed six off of six point five,

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Speaker 1: so essentially minus one point eight expected goal dif fronial

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Speaker 1: over four matches against PSG and Chelsea, and they're in

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Speaker 1: the semifinals because Kareem Benzema is just on an unbelievable

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Speaker 1: finishing run. I do have some projective value on the

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Speaker 1: over I have three point zero seven goals projected, so

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Speaker 1: over three goals is at plus one ten. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: wait a little bit to see how the market kind

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Speaker 1: of reacts if I can get a better price on

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Speaker 1: over two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think I might end up playing that.

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Speaker 1: Because I could see a scenario where Real Madrid just

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Speaker 1: comes out and says, you know what, we have confidence

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Speaker 1: because we were able to counterattack Chelsea, so why can't

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Speaker 1: we just go do it to Real Madrid.

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Speaker 2: But then again, I can also see a scenario where

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Speaker 2: they do what Diego Simeoni did in the first.

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Speaker 1: Leg and just put ten guys behind the ball and

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Speaker 1: just try and get a result and get it back

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Speaker 1: to Madrid.

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Speaker 2: So it'll be interesting. I might wait, try to play

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Speaker 2: something live.

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Speaker 1: I'm not really sure at this point because I'm not

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Speaker 1: really sure what kind of tactics both these managers are

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Speaker 1: going to set up in.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting.

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Speaker 5: This is I think of all the knockout round matches

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Speaker 5: so far, I think this one is kind of the tough,

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Speaker 5: just one to call.

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Speaker 3: It's line tight.

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Speaker 5: I think City are deserving of their price, and it's

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Speaker 5: just it's you know exactly what Real Madrid's their path

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Speaker 5: to success is, you know, and it's just can they

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Speaker 5: keep repeating it it's against Man City. It becomes a

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Speaker 5: little bit of a trickier situation. I should know Liverpool

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Speaker 5: and City are the two favorites right now to win

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Speaker 5: the Champions League, both at plus one fifteen Real Madrid

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Speaker 5: six and a half to one, via Real out there

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Speaker 5: at twenty three to one, Anthony, do you see this

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Speaker 5: in a similar fashion of PJ as a as a

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Speaker 5: match that you know could maybe one of these teams

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Speaker 5: that surprise us and takes the hands off the brakes

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Speaker 5: here and we see some goals.

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Speaker 4: I don't see a lot of goals, to be totally honest.

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Speaker 4: I think this is interesting because I do believe that

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Speaker 4: Real Madrid was a bit fortunate to get here, right,

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Speaker 4: And I think we all agree on that. And I

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Speaker 4: think they're kind of similar to PSG last year. Right.

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Speaker 4: So PSG last season, let's go back, they thrashed Barcelona

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Speaker 4: in the in the round of sixteen. We had a

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Speaker 4: lot of question marks about Barcelona, SI were to how

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Speaker 4: held out of question marks about PSG. This year, they

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Speaker 4: get to the quarterfinals, they play Bayern, who were the

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Speaker 4: defending champs. They get quite a bit fortunate in terms

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Speaker 4: of finishing variants get past them. But really it was

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Speaker 4: Inbappe and Neymar stealing the show, counter attacking Byron, controlling

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Speaker 4: the match, but getting beat on transition. And that's exactly

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Speaker 4: what happened in the two legs that Real Madrid beat Chelsea.

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Speaker 4: It was Real Madrid was not the better side necessarily,

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Speaker 4: but had the better moments. They had the best players

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Speaker 4: in the best moments, making big plays, and that's all

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Speaker 4: you need in a Champions League knockout. Now they get

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Speaker 4: to the Semis, and what happened to PSD in the

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Speaker 4: Semis last year? Pep struggle balled it like they kept

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Speaker 4: ball the entire match. Seemingly they kept you know, two

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Speaker 4: guys on Imbappe pretty much the entire match and then

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Speaker 4: suffocated Nymar out with their possession and pretty much took

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Speaker 4: away all transition opportunities. And so I think City is

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Speaker 4: going to do the exact same thing, at least attempt

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Speaker 4: to do it in this match. Jo Cancelo is suspended.

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Speaker 4: I think it's the big loss for the attack for City.

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Speaker 4: I know he's a he's a right back slash left back.

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Speaker 4: He's actually second in the prem in regressive passes this season,

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Speaker 4: behind only Trent Alexander Arnold, so he's clearly very important

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Speaker 4: to moving the ball up the pitch and getting into

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Speaker 4: these big areas, into these key areas and playing passes forward.

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Speaker 4: So then they're gonna be a little worse at that

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Speaker 4: without him. And I'm just not sure what they're gonna

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Speaker 4: do defensively either. BJ mentioned the injuries. We don't know

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Speaker 4: if Kyle Walker's playing. I think he's questionable. Is he

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Speaker 4: Is he out? If he doesn't play, that makes them

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Speaker 4: even more conservative, I think, because Pep is going to

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Speaker 4: be terrified of Venetius, and I think they're going to

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Speaker 4: play this very similarly to the first leg of the

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Speaker 4: UTLETI match if Walker is out, because Walker's kind of

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Speaker 4: their safety. He's like a free safety in football, to

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Speaker 4: put it in terms, right, He's the guy at the

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Speaker 4: sweeper as they use in soccer, and he's their pace

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Speaker 4: guy who can man mark and kind of pick up

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Speaker 4: the loose pieces, you know when teams try to play

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Speaker 4: in behind their high line. And so I think he's

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Speaker 4: a huge loss. Same with Johnstone, who's pretty mobile, you know,

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Speaker 4: compared to some of their other center backs. So I

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Speaker 4: lean toward the under the numbers not there for me either.

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Speaker 4: I want to see if I can't get a bit

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Speaker 4: number on the three minus one forty one thirty five.

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Speaker 4: If it got done to like one twenty one twenty five,

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Speaker 4: that's where I would go. I just don't see Real

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Speaker 4: Madrid being particularly aggressive here in the first leg on

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Speaker 4: the road, knowing that if they do that they could

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Speaker 4: get caught out. And really I do think they'll get

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Speaker 4: at least one shot though, by the way, but anyway,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with the under is my lean here for

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Speaker 4: this match.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a lie.

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Speaker 1: This is definitely a live under game that we talk about,

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Speaker 1: you know, these type of things, because if either side

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Speaker 1: goes up, they're gonna hunker down and be very good.

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Speaker 1: If Man City goes up, they're going to control possession,

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Speaker 1: they're going to hold the ball, and they're going to

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Speaker 1: try to make it essentially.

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Speaker 2: Like a one one they'll win.

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Speaker 1: And if Real Madrid scores, I mean, they're just gonna

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Speaker 1: pack it in ten guys behind the ball and let's

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Speaker 1: just hope we can see this game out. So I

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Speaker 1: guess now I'm leaning towards a live under. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's it's really interesting. I could, I honestly could see

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Speaker 1: a scenario where Real Madrid says we have nothing to

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Speaker 1: lose let's just go out there and and press them

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Speaker 1: and go for it.

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Speaker 2: But again it's it's difficult for me to see what's

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Speaker 2: going to happen.

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Speaker 4: And one more thing, you know what happened that in

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Speaker 4: the semifinal, right, I did the kind of the PSG comparison.

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Speaker 4: PSG went in to the semifinals. They actually scored early

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Speaker 4: on a set piece Martinos fifteenth minute header, but the

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Speaker 4: game was very dead. I mean there was only one

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Speaker 4: point seven expected goals. City won at two to one.

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Speaker 4: They had two kind of fish goals. One was a

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Speaker 4: free kick deflected I believe, and then they scored from

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Speaker 4: outside the box I think mares. So there were some

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Speaker 4: bluky ish goals in a game that didn't have a

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Speaker 4: ton of chances. I mean, neither team created a full

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Speaker 4: expected goal. And you just see that these teams they

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Speaker 4: tighten up and they don't play nearly as open as

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Speaker 4: you'd see in you know, a regular group stage match

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Speaker 4: or even a round of sixteen. You know, you tend

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Speaker 4: to just get teams to tighten up in these bigger matches,

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Speaker 4: and especially the first leg, where I think teams have

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Speaker 4: a tendency to be more conservative, and we've just seen

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Speaker 4: this so much from pep. He's going to pep this

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Speaker 4: and not take any chances.

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Speaker 5: Similar to what we talked about with the the second

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Speaker 5: leg of the City at Letty match, there's only so

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Speaker 5: many different ways this game feels like it can go too,

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Speaker 5: So it's not a bad one to take a shot

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Speaker 5: on an exact score a prop.

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Speaker 4: Right, we go back to the other half again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we said said before, said before that match.

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Speaker 5: You know zero zero at twelve to one is a

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Speaker 5: good bet because it probably comes through much more often

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Speaker 5: than those odds imply. And I think, you know, if

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Speaker 5: you're looking at you know, one nil City zero zero

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Speaker 5: one Nilal Madrid, anything like that, those are seem like

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Speaker 5: the most likely outcomes here.

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Speaker 4: And it would really be the run here for goalless.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not a it's not a bad bet at all,

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Speaker 5: So that might be where I'm going, or you know,

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Speaker 5: even like a nil nail first half, one nil City

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Speaker 5: exact score prop something like that. Let's go on to

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Speaker 5: the next match though, via real our boys on the

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Speaker 5: Yellow Submarine traveling to anfield Liverpool or minus three ninety

244
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Speaker 5: in the first like via reel eleven to one, the

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Speaker 5: draws four plus four eighty. Liverpool's coming off a win

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Speaker 5: over Everydent in which I think the Toffees kind of

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Speaker 5: showed further flaws that Liverpool has, that City kind of

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Speaker 5: exploited in a much more prolific way in there to

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Speaker 5: to draw. Like if you can beat that, you can

250
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Speaker 5: beat that Liverpool high line with pace, especially out wide,

251
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Speaker 5: and if you can get Alexander Arnold one to one,

252
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Speaker 5: you will get chances. Everydent didn't take them. They didn't

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Speaker 5: get a penalty. Liverpool no penalties conceded this whole year,

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Speaker 5: so go figure. But yeah, the Reds are deserving minus

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Speaker 5: five hundred favorites to advance with vi Ariel plus three sixty.

256
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Speaker 5: But I do think this game really sets up well

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Speaker 5: for a bet on our boys.

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Speaker 3: Una.

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Speaker 5: I am Maurice Yellow Submarine. They just held Byron Munich

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Speaker 5: to two point six expected goals across two legs, and

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Speaker 5: what's most important of that number is they held them

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Speaker 5: to one point four in a game that Bayern Munich

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Speaker 5: needed to win at home in Bavaria, Right, So this

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Speaker 5: is that's an.

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Speaker 3: Incredible performance across two legs.

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Speaker 5: And it's also you know, sort of what I was

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Speaker 5: talking about with City playing at Letty and then Real Madrid.

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Speaker 5: Byron's pretty much a poor man's Liverpool, right, Like you

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Speaker 5: if you can beat Byron, if you can play up

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Speaker 5: to Byron, like you should be able to fancy yourself

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Speaker 5: against a team like Liverpool too. And they've stepped up well.

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Speaker 5: They beat Juventus in the first knockout stage. Step up

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Speaker 5: in competition gets Byron handle themselves really well. Step up

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Speaker 5: in competition again a big one. You know, you're talking

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Speaker 5: about one of the best two teams in the world

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Speaker 5: right now.

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Speaker 3: But eleven to one.

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Speaker 5: I mean, this team has shown over the past two

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Speaker 5: years they are just very very good at hanging in ties,

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Speaker 5: dragging better teams deep into the night. And if they

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Speaker 5: can get a goal off a counter, and they do create,

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Speaker 5: like they've created enough against these both Juventus or even

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Speaker 5: you know, even going back to the group safe, they're

284
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Speaker 5: creating chances that they're not fluking their way here. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I mean, I don't think there's any way any of

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Speaker 5: us are gonna be looking away from from Ria Real here.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, back on who Minamory? Can you get it

288
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Speaker 5: done again?

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Speaker 3: Anthony?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the market's finally like catching up to

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Speaker 4: this team a little bit with the way it's moved.

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Speaker 4: I mean we talked about this for the first match

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Speaker 4: against Byron, like how are they plus five sixty? We

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Speaker 4: had our question marks about Byron. I have fewer questions

295
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Speaker 4: about Liverpool. But now they're only plus four fifty against

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Speaker 4: Liverpool to advance that is. And I don't know about

297
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Speaker 4: you guys, but I thought it was pretty clear prior

298
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Speaker 4: to that match that Liverpool was better than Byron, and

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Speaker 4: I think it's even more clear after Byron barely didn't

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Speaker 4: get by vi Real and then you know they've had

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Speaker 4: their issues. So now we're only plus four to fifty

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Speaker 4: here on the two advance line. Will not be betting that,

303
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Speaker 4: but so you know you're finally getting the market respect

304
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Speaker 4: for Virea. I think that's one thing that you have

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00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,599
Speaker 4: to note here, right they were plus two with a

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Speaker 4: little bit of juice and minus one twenty eight it

307
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Speaker 4: was or minus one twenty five BJ and I know

308
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Speaker 4: you bet it in the same like against Byron up goal.

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Speaker 4: Now they're only plus one and a half at even

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Speaker 4: money here, So I think the market is kind of

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Speaker 4: is kind of right on this. And I have Liverpool

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Speaker 4: by one point two six, so I do still show

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Speaker 4: value on Vireal, but I'm going to split my bet

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Speaker 4: here and I'm going to go more on the first

315
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Speaker 4: half plus a half plus one ten, and then I'm

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Speaker 4: going to take a little bit just on the plus

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Speaker 4: one and a half for the game as well, because

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Speaker 4: I do I don't. First of all, the reason I

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Speaker 4: like the first half more, I think Liverpool's pressure and

320
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Speaker 4: counterpressing ability is just better than Byron's. They're better in transition.

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Speaker 4: Tiago and Fabinho and Henderson as a midfield are much

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Speaker 4: more resistant to counters than the Byron group is. And

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Speaker 4: I'm worried about subs. I think Byron didn't really have

324
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Speaker 4: guys off the bench, like they start all their good players,

325
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Speaker 4: and they don't have a ton of depth, and it's

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Speaker 4: like Mucila's good, but there's not like a game changing

327
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 4: sub or two that Byron can really go to. And

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Speaker 4: they're pushing for a goal Liverpool, and this has been

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Speaker 4: I think the biggest difference between them and years past.

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Speaker 4: They finally have depth. Diaz may even start, but Dias

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Speaker 4: Mane Sala Formino Jota. Right, there's like the big five,

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Speaker 4: so they can play three of them and then you know,

333
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Speaker 4: bring two more on if they need them, and so

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Speaker 4: they also have some midfield depth too, So I think

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Speaker 4: what may happen is v Real does start to wear

336
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Speaker 4: down under the pressure on the Rhododan field, that Liverpool

337
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Speaker 4: might be able to break away here in the second

338
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Speaker 4: half be my only fear, and that's the reason that

339
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Speaker 4: I'm I'm gonna play more on the first half plus

340
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Speaker 4: a half. We kind of saw it today, you know.

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Speaker 4: I thought Rigi really changed the game against Everton. He

342
00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,800
Speaker 4: was really impressive in his limited time. But in the

343
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Speaker 4: first half, I mean, Liverpool didn't do squat at home.

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Speaker 4: So I think I think you're kind of I'm gonna

345
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Speaker 4: get a little cute. I'm gonna throw, you know, a

346
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Speaker 4: little more on the first half than I am on

347
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Speaker 4: the full game.

348
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Speaker 5: Yeah, And I think what you're gonna see for via

349
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Speaker 5: Real is very similar to what you saw from everytton,

350
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Speaker 5: especially in that first half, like just a much better

351
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Speaker 5: version of being you know, ship housing their way through

352
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Speaker 5: as long as they can, putting as many guys behind

353
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Speaker 5: the ball and finding a way out of trouble and

354
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Speaker 5: finding outlets on the wings and hoping that uh, you know,

355
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Speaker 5: if there are those fifty fifty calls.

356
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Speaker 3: They go their way or they get a little luck.

357
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Speaker 5: We have talked about Liverpool's running been running hot defensively

358
00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,600
Speaker 5: similarly forever now. So it just seems like this, this

359
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 5: team has earned via Real, has earned the right to have,

360
00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 5: like for us to believe in them.

361
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 3: And then at eleven to one, like I said, I just.

362
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Speaker 5: Think there's there's gonna there's a lot of you know,

363
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,040
Speaker 5: reality or you know universe is out there where this

364
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 5: game is nil nil or one nil, you know via

365
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 5: Real in like the sixty seventieth minute. So I'm gonna

366
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Speaker 5: take my chances here at a big number, at a

367
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,240
Speaker 5: team that just continues to prove us right.

368
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 3: At big numbers. So why would you stop now? BJ

369
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:17,160
Speaker 3: what do you have?

370
00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 2: Yeah? I love Vireal plus one plus one and a half.

371
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 1: It's at plus one o five right now to answer

372
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 1: your question about the odds, And I think what's interesting

373
00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,640
Speaker 1: is Bayern Munich was minus four hundred at home in

374
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Speaker 1: a game they needed to win. Liverpool opened at minus

375
00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 1: four hundred and now they're down to minus three fifty.

376
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 1: So the market is clearly respecting Vireal as they should

377
00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 1: have essentially before the tie against Byron because like this

378
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 1: is no fluke like Vireal one hundred percent deserved to

379
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,520
Speaker 1: go through against Byron. They to echo your point, Michael,

380
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,040
Speaker 1: not only were they did they win a match or

381
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,320
Speaker 1: buy they hold Byron to two point six expected goals

382
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 1: over two legs, especially in the second leg.

383
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 2: When they you know, Byron needed to win, but.

384
00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 1: Veriel scored in the eighth minute and essentially held Byron

385
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 1: from that point on is to one goal and two

386
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:09,440
Speaker 1: point six expected Like that's incredibly impressive performance. So now, obviously,

387
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,439
Speaker 1: like Anthy mentioned, Liverpool is better than Bayern Munich. But

388
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,160
Speaker 1: what Virial has the ability to do with a lot

389
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,560
Speaker 1: of these other sides I think, or smaller sides I've

390
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 1: gone up against Liverpool and failed, is they have the

391
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,280
Speaker 1: tactical flexibility to play the way they did in the

392
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 1: first leg against Byron, where they come out, they press them,

393
00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:28,360
Speaker 1: they say you know what, we're taking the game right

394
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 1: to you. And they also have the ability, like they

395
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 1: did in the second leg, to sit back in a

396
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 1: four to four two, play two low blocks and play

397
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:35,240
Speaker 1: incredibly defensive.

398
00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 2: So I have no doubt that Uniamory is going to

399
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 2: be able to.

400
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 1: Just on the fly to whatever Liverpool is type doing,

401
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 1: because early on in the Premier League season, Liverpool did

402
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,880
Speaker 1: struggle against teams that pressed them at a high rate.

403
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 1: So Viil comes and he says, you know what, We've

404
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:52,560
Speaker 1: got nothing to lose. We're taking it right to you.

405
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 1: There's a chance that Liverpool could essentially crumble under that pressure.

406
00:17:57,160 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 1: So Vireel's ability to also play through pressure was really

407
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 1: evident against Byron Munich in that first leg. They had

408
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: so many counter attacking opportunities. We said it when we

409
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,160
Speaker 1: talked about it last time that they could have won

410
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,359
Speaker 1: like four five nothing given the opportunities they had on

411
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:15,040
Speaker 1: the encounterable. Byron and Liverpool played very similar styles with

412
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,879
Speaker 1: that high line, and Liverpool's gonna be way more aggressive

413
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 1: than essentially a team like if they were going to

414
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 1: play Manchester City. I would be a little more hesitant

415
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 1: on Virial, but Vireal is an unbelievable counter attacking team

416
00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,879
Speaker 1: that can really cause Liverpool some problems. So really this

417
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,359
Speaker 1: I mean, we've talked about how Liverpool can rotate their squad,

418
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 1: but this is their ninth match in twenty five days,

419
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,119
Speaker 1: Like at some point, at some point it has to

420
00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:39,359
Speaker 1: kind of catch up with them, and you saw it

421
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 1: kind of today. They were pretty sluggish in the first

422
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 1: half against Everton. Virial La legoes off this weekend for

423
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 1: the Copador raight finals, so Vireal is at eight days

424
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 1: of rest for this match, so they will be much

425
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 1: more fresh than Liverpool.

426
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 2: So in terms of spots, this is fantastic for Viereal.

427
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:56,639
Speaker 2: So I am on them.

428
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,439
Speaker 1: Plus one and a half at plus one five at Liverpool.

429
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 1: Spread projected around minus one point one, so I'm a

430
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 1: little lower on Liverpool than Anthony is, but either way,

431
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,800
Speaker 1: there's definitely value on be a Real and this leg,

432
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,360
Speaker 1: and I might take a shot on eleven to one

433
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,679
Speaker 1: as well, Michael, because I can't. I just love this

434
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 1: team so much, and at some point, Liverpool, I know

435
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,120
Speaker 1: they're pretty much one of the best teams in the world,

436
00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:23,120
Speaker 1: but at some point, this run of games of high pressure,

437
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 1: high stakes over weeks and weeks and weeks, it's gonna

438
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 1: catch up with you at some point. And what better

439
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: spot against an incredible counter attacking team like Brial.

440
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 4: I feel like he's saying that when they win the

441
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,280
Speaker 4: Champions League's you know Liverpool is gonna be gassed at

442
00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,399
Speaker 4: some point and then they win the Champions League. But

443
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 4: I'll leave with one stat and it's, uh, you know,

444
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,160
Speaker 4: people look at shots and they're like, oh, Buyern twenty

445
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 4: four shots Viria four shots, second length one point five

446
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:49,719
Speaker 4: expected goals on twenty four shots is hilariously bad shot quality.

447
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,359
Speaker 4: So you know, it's just another reason we use expected goals.

448
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 5: And I mean people were complaining about Everton his first

449
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 5: half today, but they held Liverpool what point went two

450
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 5: expected goals on like four or five shots, So it's

451
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,640
Speaker 5: like it's like it's in a weird way, they did

452
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 5: really show that this strategy can work. It's just you

453
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:09,919
Speaker 5: need better players to pull it off. Over ninety minutes,

454
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 5: I can already hear Irgen Klopp complaining about via Real

455
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 5: getting the weekend off before this while they continue to

456
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 5: have to play.

457
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 4: And might have a big game. But I know, Dan

458
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 4: Jim and.

459
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 5: One other point I want to make is is in

460
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 5: a in a weird way, you know this obviously of

461
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 5: the four teams remaining, you know, the other three teams, Madrid, City, Liverpool,

462
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,239
Speaker 5: like they would have said via Real, everyone will say

463
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,919
Speaker 5: via Real that's probably the easiest path to the final.

464
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 5: But in a weird way, via Real like like bj

465
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 5: was mentioning like this is probably their best chance of

466
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,679
Speaker 5: the of the teams left because City and you know,

467
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 5: I guess Madrid would be the easier, easier route, but

468
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 5: like those two teams would be more than happy to

469
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 5: kind of uh, you know, they won't play at that

470
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 5: kind of high risk, high reward style that Liverpool does,

471
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 5: that that via Real can take advantage of. So yeah,

472
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 5: really interesting one and it just is not as straightforward.

473
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 5: I don't think as this line. I think like you

474
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 5: guys were saying, like the market clearly respects Uniamori's side

475
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 5: as they should, especially in these tournaments.

476
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 3: Finally, yeah, over the past.

477
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 5: Two years, right, like we've been beating this drum too,

478
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 5: that they won the Europa League last year, they beat Arsenal,

479
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 5: they beat Man United to in semi final and then

480
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 5: a final.

481
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 3: This is a small.

482
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 5: Club too, like they they took care of business there

483
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 5: and now they've beaten Juventus and Bayron Munich. They got

484
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 5: out of a group that had Atalanta who and United

485
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 5: like this, this has been a really impressive run and

486
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 5: they just Uniamori has shown.

487
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 3: That he can handle these situations.

488
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 5: So there's just there are enough signals here that I

489
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 5: think a bed on via Real is well worth it,

490
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 5: especially at the numbers, even even if the market is

491
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 5: catching on. All right, let's move to the Europa League,

492
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 5: also in the semi finals. Both of these matches, though,

493
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 5: will will take place on the same day Thursday, three

494
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 5: pm Eastern time. West Ham minus one ten at home

495
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 5: hosting Frankfurt out of the Bundesliga.

496
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 3: The draw here is plus two fifty.

497
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 5: Frankfurt been largely mediocre in domestically this season ten ten

498
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 5: and eleven win draw, loss, a minus two excuse me,

499
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 5: minus two goal differential forty two scored, forty four against,

500
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 5: but a minus eleven expectacle differentials nearly thirty nine created

501
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 5: and fifty allowed. However, they just got baldy Barcelona, who

502
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 5: were red hot in the Champion of the Europa League

503
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 5: quarter finals. So it's tough, I mean, and we've talked

504
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 5: about this West sam team has has looked shaky. They

505
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 5: win one, they lose one, they draw one, They've they've

506
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 5: just been up and down, and I think a lot

507
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,239
Speaker 5: of it is because they they're basically putting all their

508
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 5: eggs into this basket and focusing on the Europa League.

509
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 5: Coming off the wins over Leone across the two legs,

510
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 5: So I think this game like it's it looks right.

511
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 5: I would be interested in maybe an over here because

512
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:56,800
Speaker 5: I think both of these defenses are pretty susceptible to

513
00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 5: giving up big chances. BJ what do you have here?

514
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:01,360
Speaker 4: Yeah?

515
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 2: I like the over as well.

516
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 1: Ahead in my notes, it was like very interesting that

517
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: we have basically two teams that have seemingly fallen off

518
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 1: a cliff in their domestic leagues but somehow got through

519
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: against like Leyon was by far a better team than

520
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 1: west Ham at that given juncture, and obviously Barcelona was

521
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 1: in red hot form.

522
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 2: But you know west Ham we've talked about it. There

523
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 2: an injury.

524
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 1: Crisis, I mean Kurt Zuma and he said diapp are

525
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 1: still out up Craig Dawson is going to be you know,

526
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 1: they basically had to play at back three today against

527
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: Chelsea and then Craig Dawson got a red card, so

528
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 1: he's going to be out against Arsenal. I'd really have

529
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 1: no idea what they're going to do in that match,

530
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: but we'll talk about that next week. But what it

531
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: does is it brings west Ham out of their typical

532
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 1: four two three one that they've had so much success in,

533
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: so it's very difficult for me to see how they're

534
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: not going to concede quite a bit here to Frankfurt,

535
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 1: I mean, even in the quarterfinals against Leon they allowed

536
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 1: one goal over the two legs, but Leone created three

537
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 1: point seven, so they really weren't that good defensively. And Frankfurt,

538
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 1: I mean they were good offensively against a Barcelona team

539
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:14,719
Speaker 1: that was unbelievable, like at an unbelievable defensive run under shabby,

540
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,160
Speaker 1: and they created three point one over those two legs.

541
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: But you know, in the Bundesliga they haven't been that great,

542
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, like one point three expected goals per match,

543
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 1: but throughout the Europa League they're averaging around one point

544
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: six expected goals per match, so they've obviously been much

545
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 1: better in these type of competitions. But I mean defensively

546
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: in the Bundesligae this year they are fifteenth in big

547
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 1: scoring chances to allow, they're conceding one point seven to

548
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,479
Speaker 1: four per match. And west Ham offensively, you know, they

549
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: haven't been great, like we've mentioned since the calendar turned

550
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,239
Speaker 1: at twenty twenty two, but they have done a good

551
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 1: job all season at creating base scoring chances, they average

552
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 1: about one point three per match. But really today against Chelsea,

553
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: they rested mcal Antonio, they rested Jared Bowen and then

554
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 1: Declan Rice for most of the match. So yeah, I

555
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 1: have two point nine to five goals per ject for

556
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: this match. So over two goals that even Wanni I

557
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: think is a decent price for two defenses that are

558
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: very very shaky right now.

559
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm curious for you, Anthony, because I feel like

560
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 5: you like to bet against both of these teams in

561
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 5: their domestic leagues quite a bit.

562
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's a mid off, you know, and

563
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 4: for lack of a better term, this, like the leaves

564
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 4: Europa League finals are pretty underwhelming when you consider some

565
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,200
Speaker 4: of the matchups we've had in past years and just

566
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,479
Speaker 4: the general quality of the conference. League ones are actually

567
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 4: far more enticing to me. But these are two pretty

568
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 4: overrated teams that I've been kind of fading often, not

569
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 4: as much Frankfurt because I think the market's pretty wrong

570
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 4: or pretty right on them, and then that they're you know,

571
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 4: just I've got them tenth I think in the Bundesliga

572
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 4: and they are tenth, and they've kind of played that

573
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 4: way for most of the season, but west Ham has

574
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 4: finally come down to earth. I mean it's been a slow,

575
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 4: progressive slide into the mud. And today I didn't get

576
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 4: a chance to watch the match, but twenty five shots

577
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 4: for Chelsea, two and a half expected goals. It was

578
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 4: a pretty concerning, concerning performance. And I understand the flat

579
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 4: spot idea, like they just have a look ahead to

580
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 4: this match of their season, biggest west Ham match in

581
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 4: many many years on Thursday. Okay, fine, you can be flat,

582
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 4: but they got what looks like trucked. So two teams

583
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 4: I'm looking to play against, so that doesn't make me

584
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 4: love either side generally, and my numbers relatively close. I

585
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 4: make west Ham right around the number actually plus one ten,

586
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,639
Speaker 4: so I leaned toward Frankfurt just because I generally like

587
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 4: the dog in situation. And the first leg on the road,

588
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 4: and we talked about Leon three and a half three

589
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 4: point seven expected goals created over two legs. West Ham's

590
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 4: defense was getting very, very fortunate both legs. I think

591
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 4: they hit the post twice in the first leg, if

592
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,479
Speaker 4: I'm recalling correctly. Leon did in west Ham they were

593
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 4: much better side. There was a red card involved, but

594
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 4: Leon really deserved more from that, so I would lean

595
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 4: toward Frankfurt on the road here, but don't really love

596
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 4: either side.

597
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 5: The other semi final features RB Leipzig, fresho off of

598
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 5: a loss to Unyan Berlin over the weekend which we

599
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 5: were all on their mist do sixty hosting Rangers out

600
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 5: of Scotland plus seven hundred to draw here.

601
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 3: Is plus three eighty.

602
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 5: It's an interesting matchup because we've been talking about Leipzig

603
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 5: overperforming relative to their to their data for a long time,

604
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 5: like they've been running hot offensively by fifteen goals or so.

605
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 5: Finally caught up to them a little bit. In the

606
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 5: lust to Unyan Berlin. They still scored more than more

607
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 5: goals than their HG right zero point six created one

608
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 5: scored they scored on their first shot of course.

609
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 3: But then you look at Rangers.

610
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,479
Speaker 5: It's kind of hard to judge Scottish teams just because

611
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,439
Speaker 5: they're the division they're playing in is so top heavy, right,

612
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 5: you usually get Ranger Celtic and then one of you

613
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 5: know Hearts or you know Aberdeen, who whoever like kind

614
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 5: of pops this year I think it's Hearts and Dundee

615
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,439
Speaker 5: like have been decent in terms of domestic form, so

616
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 5: and the data is just not that good because they're

617
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 5: they're playing against bad teams and then the league splits

618
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 5: and it's just it's a completely different animal than a

619
00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 5: lot of these other leagues. So it's hard to kind

620
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 5: of just judge just how good this Rangers team is.

621
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 5: And they're clearly going to be stepping up in competition

622
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 5: on the road against Leipzig lip six minus three seventy

623
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 5: five two advanced Rangers plus two eighty five.

624
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 3: Just because of the overperformance.

625
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 5: Like I don't hate a bet on Rangers at seven

626
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 5: to one, but it does seem like Leipzig are probably well,

627
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 5: you know that they're deserving of these prices considering the

628
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 5: opposition and BJ what do you think.

629
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: I think chaos was written all over this entire time.

630
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: The good news about it you mentioned with the data

631
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: with Scotland. The good news is we have two legs

632
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: of Rangers playing Dortmund in the Europa League knockout playoffs,

633
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: I believe is what they're called, and that was just

634
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 1: complete chaos.

635
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 2: I believe there were.

636
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 1: Ten goals over the two matches, eight point two expected

637
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 1: goals total for those and I understand that Lipzig is

638
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: overperformed offensively, but Dorman and Leipsig play very very similar

639
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 1: uptempo type styles, and what I saw from Rangers over

640
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 1: those two legs is they are not afraid at all

641
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: to get out on the counter and send guys forward.

642
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 1: Because you know, we've talked about all the time, but

643
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: teams like this, who play in lower leagues where they

644
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: dominate possession all the time, they have to come to

645
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: these European competitions and play against sides who are going

646
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: to dominate possession there. I mean Rangers throughout this in time,

647
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: they've got it a pretty easy path. Let's be honest

648
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: that once they got by Dormant, they got to play

649
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: Red Star bell Grade and then they got Braga out

650
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: of Portugal, so I am expecting chaos.

651
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 2: I'm expecting an over here.

652
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: I love over two and a half goals at minus

653
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: two and a half given Rangers up tempo style, their

654
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 1: ability to counterattack, and seemingly the game just to be

655
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 1: incredibly open. I mean, throughout the Europa League, Rangers matches

656
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 1: have been incredibly open. Eight point two over two legs

657
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,040
Speaker 1: against Dortmund, six and a half over two legs against

658
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: Red Star bell Grade. And then I understand there were

659
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: two red cards in there and there was some extra time,

660
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: so you.

661
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: Have to put this little caveat bit.

662
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: They created six point one expected goals against Braga in

663
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 1: the second leg, which is I think maybe the biggest

664
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: expectable output I've seen this season. Somebody might have to

665
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 1: correct me on that one, but I have three and

666
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: a little over three and a half goals projected for

667
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 1: this match, So over two and a half at minus

668
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: one thirty five I think is a really really good

669
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: price for a match that is going to be incredibly open,

670
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 1: And honestly, I do not mind a bet on Rangers

671
00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 1: at all because if they play similarly, because they can

672
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 1: set up similarly to how Leon Berlin did this past weekend,

673
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 1: there is no doubt in my mind that they can

674
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: torch RB Leipsig on the counter, because they have struggled

675
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: on the counter at times this season, especially early on,

676
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: and they haven't really played a team that's gonna punish

677
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: them on the counter like the like a team like

678
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: Rangers is going to be able to do. I mean,

679
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: Adelanta was definitely the better side against them in the last,

680
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: you know, first leg, and then.

681
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: RBI Leipsig you know, kind of took over and then

682
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 2: the second leg.

683
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Rangers is definitely live to advance

684
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: here and get to the final. Given the RB Leipsig

685
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: overperformance in the negative aggression that we saw against arn Blener,

686
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: I think it's going to continue to come here in

687
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: this first.

688
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 5: Leg, Anthony, You're going to a different route here. You've

689
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 5: got a big picture of view of Leipsick. It's big

690
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 5: pictures you can get when it's the semi finals.

691
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the numbers are great in terms of

692
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 4: like you know, we're getting a big number on Lipzig

693
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 4: doin the Europa League. But I am stunned it's plus

694
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 4: one twenty. I think, you know, I've talked about you know,

695
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 4: they're minus three seventy right to get to the final,

696
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 4: which is to advance over two legs, and to be honest,

697
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 4: from a matchup perspective, Rangers scares me about as much

698
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 4: as as west ham a Einntrack Frankfurt AD in terms

699
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 4: of their one that's very difficult road environment. So the

700
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 4: fact that we get it over two legs I like

701
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 4: because I think that's the one that has higher variance

702
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 4: because we're expecting you know, a lot of back and

703
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 4: forth in that match, so I like it I get

704
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 4: the better team over two legs in that situation. In

705
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 4: one legged final against Einn Trak Frankfort, I mean they

706
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 4: played Frankfort twenty this year. Frank stole two draws. None

707
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 4: of those matches were competitive. I believe it was four

708
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 4: point five, two point three and expected goals over two

709
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: matches at and home against Frankfort. So if it's Frankfurt,

710
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 4: I feel really good about our plus one twenty, and

711
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 4: even against West Ham, a team that has been clearly

712
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,960
Speaker 4: sliding and a team that now has injuries. I think

713
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 4: Leipzig is by far the best team left in the

714
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 4: tournament and they're going to win the tournament. So at

715
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 4: plus one twenty, I love them to win Europe League.

716
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 4: I'm not betting this match though, I think it's like

717
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 4: Beta said, I would lean toward the over, but I

718
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 4: think I'm just gonna take the plus one twenty to

719
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 4: win this whole tournament, and hopefully we don't get Soccered

720
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 4: in the final.

721
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 3: I think that's real quick.

722
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 5: Europa Conference League semi finals as well, fayan Ord taking

723
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 5: on Marseilles and then Leicester City and Roma a really

724
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 5: interesting one. I think that if you asked UEFA when

725
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 5: they came up with this new competition for whatever reason,

726
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 5: if they could pick a couple of teams that they'd

727
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 5: want to meet in this situation, I think Leicester City

728
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 5: and Romeo would probably at the top of their list because.

729
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 3: They're you know, biggish clubs and it will mean something too.

730
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 5: Leicester for sure, and Roma I guess you know, Mareno

731
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 5: gets to talk about trophy he won if they do.

732
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 3: What do you guys have here? We'll start with you

733
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 3: BJ real quick.

734
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, how do you.

735
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: Not love Roma in this spot? I mean, Lester is

736
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,959
Speaker 1: a slight favorite at home. I do not know how

737
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: they are favorites at home right now. I mean I

738
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: understand that Jose Reno has been just lost to enter

739
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: this past weekend, but Romo was eleven matches unbeaten before

740
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: that with a plus twelve point eight expected gold differential

741
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 1: over that run. Since the beginning of March, we've talked

742
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: about it, Lester plus two actual goal differential minus five

743
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: point four expected gold differential. Now, they were impressive in

744
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: the second leg against PSB. With their backs against the wall,

745
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: they got two late goals created about two point seven expected,

746
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: so feather in their cap for that. But with that

747
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: being said, overall for the season, Lester has a minus

748
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: eleven point two expecting gold differential Roma's at.

749
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: Plus twenty two.

750
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: That is a what very very wide gap that the

751
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: competition level from the Premier League to Syria A cannot

752
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: make up. I mean lesser defensively is sixteenth in the

753
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 1: Premier League in non penalty expected goals in eighteenth in

754
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: shots per ninety. Roma is third in Italy in both

755
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: those categories. And I just don't see how Leicester is

756
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 1: a favorite here.

757
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: So I love Rama. It's a bit pricey.

758
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: Roma plus half a goals minus one fifty right now,

759
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 1: you can play them on the money line.

760
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: I do believe that they're going to be able to

761
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,240
Speaker 2: just I just don't understand how Lester.

762
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 5: Is a favorite in this tie, Anthony, you're seeing a

763
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 5: similar tune here.

764
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I make Roma minus one ten on the draw,

765
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 4: no bet. So I've got them as a favorite, not

766
00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 4: by a ton, but you know, on the road here

767
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 4: of course, in the first leg, and I took them

768
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 4: plus a quarter goal at minus one ten, so I

769
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 4: think I'm getting a pretty good number there. And what

770
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 4: I think should really be pretty close to a toss up.

771
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 4: I'm getting the court goal, I'm going to take it.

772
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 4: I think this match may well end in a draw

773
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 4: and then Roma will go home and win. I'm still

774
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 4: looking for prices on the two advanced lines. I have

775
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 4: not been able to find any yet. I'm hoping as

776
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: we get closer to Thursday that we're going to get

777
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 4: those posts. I'm gonna be playing Roma to advance. I

778
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 4: don't know the number, of course, but I think based

779
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 4: on the lines that we have the first match, I

780
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 4: can pretty much tell that we're gonna get a good

781
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 4: Roma to advance numbers. So I think they should be

782
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 4: solid favorites to advance over two legs, over sixty percent

783
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 4: in my opinion. And you know, they were the second

784
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 4: best team coming into this competition behind Spurs. Five thirty

785
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 4: eight still thinks they are. I have no reason to

786
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 4: believe they're not the second best and the best team

787
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 4: remaining in this field. So I'm taking Roma and again

788
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 4: the other match. You know, we've talked about Marseille and

789
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 4: BJ hates them and I kind of like them for

790
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 4: you know, fun reasons, and I think they're a lot

791
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 4: of fun. But in terms of you know, from a

792
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 4: regression point of view, I like Fineord's match up here.

793
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 4: I don't love them in the first leg, but I'm

794
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 4: gonna be looking for them to advance too. I think

795
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 4: we're gonna get a dog price on fine Ord to advance.

796
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 3: UH.

797
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 4: Marseille one of the slowest build up teams in all

798
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 4: of Europe one point one to nine direct speed uh

799
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 4: from the analysts, that's the slowest in all of France's

800
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 4: second most passes per sequence. They're expected goals, they're only

801
00:35:58,400 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: like fit the sixth in France though in terms of

802
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 4: actual quality of this season they're fifth and expected goals

803
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 4: allowed from open play only seventh from expected goals four.

804
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 4: As we're recording this, they've taken two shots in the

805
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 4: first half at reams, so they're really not an impressive

806
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 4: attack for me, and it really comes down to a

807
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 4: lot of piet magic to overcome that, and he can

808
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 4: do that. But I think Fine Oorid matches up pretty

809
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 4: well with their ability to counter attack on the road

810
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 4: here in the second leg. So I'm gonna be looking

811
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 4: to bet in the second leg straight out, but I

812
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 4: also will be looking to bet fine Or to advance again.

813
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:26,839
Speaker 4: We don't have number. I haven't been able to find

814
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 4: a number yet, but I like fine or all right.

815
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 5: And there is a Preier League match over the mid week.

816
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 5: It's a Thursday one and it's hilarious. It's Man United

817
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 5: plus two twenty five against Chelsea plus one twenty The

818
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,839
Speaker 5: draw here is plus two sixty. I mean we say

819
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 5: it every week, like, what number would you need to

820
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 5: Betman United in this in this match? With what they're

821
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 5: kind of putting out there, not not in terms of

822
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 5: their lineup, but just in terms of their effort and

823
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 5: their complete lack of cohesion and the kind of the

824
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 5: just stuff that's swirling around this club right now. It's

825
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 5: tough to imagine Chelsea should be fully.

826
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 3: Up for this one.

827
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 5: You're always up for a Man United match, and they

828
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 5: can basically make sure it's one hundred percent done and

829
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 5: dusted that they finished in the top four with three points. Here.

830
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 5: They're coming off a win over west Ham on the weekend,

831
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 5: a late winner from Christian poolasicch after Georgino with one

832
00:37:16,680 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 5: of the worst penalties ever. Meanwhile, Man United they got

833
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:26,239
Speaker 5: thrashed by BJ's Arsenal after being thrashed by Liverpool after

834
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 5: being a lucky winner against Nowich and after losing the

835
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 5: everord and so what a run here from Ralph Rang

836
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 5: It's Manchester United. I mean I think the number is crazy,

837
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 5: like across the board, unplayable. It's a pretty easy one

838
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,320
Speaker 5: for me to pass on. It's the only game which sucks.

839
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:44,399
Speaker 5: But so you will always want to play those those

840
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 5: island games. But I got nothing in terms of betting

841
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 5: standpoint for United and Chelsea BJ.

842
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 1: What do you have?

843
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm probably gonna end up passing as well.

844
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 1: I have Chelsea projects at plus one twelve and the

845
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 1: over runner at two point seventy five, So not much

846
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: value on me. Over under the y Olbers at minus

847
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 1: went twenty price at minus went twenty.

848
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 2: Five, So easy pass me. I mean United, you have

849
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 2: to question motivation with them right now. They're clearly out

850
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 2: of the top four.

851
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 1: They could care less if they're in the Europa Conference League,

852
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: of the Europa League, you have a new manager coming in.

853
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 1: It's I mean Ronaldo. Once against you know, essentially almost

854
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: saved them, like with a great movement that first one

855
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: and then you know a bad penalty by Juno Ferinance.

856
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 1: But once Arsenal went up to nothing, I thought United

857
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 1: was played a little bit more inspired. It's just they

858
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 1: came out very, very flat, so you could see it

859
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: another scenario like that here. I think it was a

860
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 1: fun game to potentially play live because if United scores first,

861
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: I think I'll probably should be jumping in on Chelsea

862
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 1: because if you remember the last time these two teams met,

863
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 1: I believe it was in the middle either the end

864
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: of the old Gonness Soul shar era or just after

865
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 1: it just just Michael Carrick.

866
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:03,920
Speaker 2: Was in charge, but good season when United basically.

867
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,399
Speaker 1: Just packed it in for ninety minutes and they got

868
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 1: one breakaway that they put away and they tied one

869
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 1: to one.

870
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 4: So think Virginia was slipped right, Yeah it was Yeah,

871
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 4: it was off they fell.

872
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 2: It was off a corner. They like, United cleared it.

873
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 2: Somebody slipped and you know, I think it was Sancho

874
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 2: who got the breakaway.

875
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, one on one.

876
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 2: So I mean we couldn't see a similar scenario like that.

877
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 1: I think this is just a fun live betting game,

878
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 1: especially if United goes up, because I don't know where.

879
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: With Chelsea winning today, I mean they're pretty much secure

880
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: and they were I mean they were secure before today.

881
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: But winning today really clinched third place for them, so

882
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: you have to question motivation with them as well. So

883
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 1: I mean you get up for it, like you said,

884
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: likely you get up for a match against one of

885
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: the big six.

886
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 2: But I like, I agree with you.

887
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 3: This is an easy pass for me antony anything here

888
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: before we move on to our favorite bet for the week.

889
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:58,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't have much either, be Jay said plussed

890
00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 4: one twelve. I just looked at mine and pussed one eight,

891
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 4: So I show you know, the tiniest value on the

892
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 4: Blues on the road. I don't hate the idea of

893
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 4: fading United again if you want to, if you want

894
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 4: to have fun with this, I mean, I'll be watching

895
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 4: the Conference League, but because you know, when you can

896
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 4: watch Europeoak Conference League, why would you watch the prem.

897
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 2: But yeahs watch Rangers and right, I.

898
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 4: Mean Galosso Show I think is gonna paramount plus Glosso

899
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 4: Show is going to be doing all four matches simultaneously,

900
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 4: so that will be where I will be tuned in

901
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 4: on Thursday. But uh, you know, from this match point

902
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 4: of view, I think if you want to bet Chelsea,

903
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 4: you could look toward all lines because they did you know,

904
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 4: pretty impressively today, and I do think that they have

905
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 4: a chance to kind of make a statement here and

906
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 4: and you know, rub some dirt on man United and

907
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 4: clearly Liverpool and Arsenal look to do the same. Although

908
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 4: you know, United really did have some good moments against Arsenal.

909
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 4: I thought I was encouraged by that. But you know,

910
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:51,839
Speaker 4: you think if they're gonna give a good effort, it's

911
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 4: going to come at home. So that is another another

912
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 4: indicator maybe you're looking towards. But at this point in

913
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 4: the year, I am no interest in backing Manchester United.

914
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 4: Quest that about Gladbach they covered this weekend.

915
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 5: But all right, we'll close this one out with our

916
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 5: favorite bets for this week Champions League, Europa League all

917
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 5: over the place. It should be a fun week, BJ Anthony,

918
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 5: I think this is the first time since we've started

919
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 5: the show that all three of us are on the

920
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 5: same side for our best bet, So we'll let you

921
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 5: started off BJ.

922
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 2: Yep vi Real plus one and a half at plus

923
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 2: one oh five.

924
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 1: I mean, this is, like we've already mentioned, it is

925
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 1: no fluke that via Real is here held Byron to

926
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: two point six expected goals over two legs when they

927
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 1: actually went up in the first leg up in the

928
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: eighth minutes, so they've essentially held one of the best offenses.

929
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: In the world to a very very low amount over

930
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 2: those two legs.

931
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 1: The ability of vi Real to play through pressure on

932
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,200
Speaker 1: the to go out on the counter attack is going

933
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 1: to be very, very crucial in this matchup against the

934
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 1: Liverpool's side that can really suffocate you if you're not

935
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 1: able to.

936
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 2: Play through that kind of pressure.

937
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 1: And they showed in the first leg against Byron that

938
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 1: they have the ability to get out and counter attack

939
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: and put pressure on Liverpool's high line.

940
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 2: I mean, Liverpool, the spot for them is not that great.

941
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: This is their ninth match in twenty five days of

942
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:13,399
Speaker 1: just constant high pressure playing United, playing in Emergencide, Darby

943
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 1: aginst Everton twice against Manchester City. Vireal has had eight

944
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 1: days ar rest. La Lega was off this weekend, so

945
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 1: they will be fresh and ready for this one. They tactically,

946
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 1: they can set up incredibly defensive and play two low blocks.

947
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: They can come out, they can put pressure on you

948
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: and cause a lot of problems. So I mean, from

949
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 1: projection standpoint, I have Liverpool spread projected at minus one

950
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: point zero six, So I love the value on Virel

951
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 1: plus one and a half at plus one oh five.

952
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,280
Speaker 5: Sticking with the same team, going a different direction eleven

953
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 5: to one Virel on the money line at anfield like

954
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 5: we're saying they're impressive, Champions League are and continued with

955
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 5: a shocking result. It gets Byron, but it's only shocking

956
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 5: if you haven't been paying attention or if you haven't

957
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 5: been listening to the show this That result was coming,

958
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 5: especially after an impressive two leg win over Juventus. So

959
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 5: this team has already defeated Arsenal, man United, Juventus and

960
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,359
Speaker 5: Bayron Munich in the past two years in Europa League

961
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 5: or Champions League knockout ties, So why not Liverpool. Virial

962
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,359
Speaker 5: has already paid off for us at big numbers. I'm

963
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:18,439
Speaker 5: not gonna start downing them now, no matter the team.

964
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 5: And as bj said, at some point all these games

965
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 5: should catch up to the Reds and it could happen

966
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 5: on Wednesday night against a team that is suited to

967
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 5: play in this time of environment. Anthony, what about you?

968
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 4: You know we've found three different ways to back vi

969
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 4: Real here because he just got the spread, you've got

970
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 4: the money line. I'm gonna take the first half spread

971
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,720
Speaker 4: plus a half plus one ten. I think vi Real

972
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,439
Speaker 4: is finally getting priced correctly in the market in terms

973
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 4: of this match. When you compare their numbers when they

974
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 4: played Byron three weeks ago when they're playing now against Liverpool,

975
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 4: they're being priced a little bit shorter against Liverpool, who

976
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 4: is clearly a better team. So the market is clearly

977
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 4: starting to catch up on the Yellow Submarine. But and

978
00:43:57,880 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 4: I do worry about Liverpool depth. That's the main reason

979
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 4: I'm not playing the full game here. I think Liverpool

980
00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:04,280
Speaker 4: has the chance to make a lot of high impact

981
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 4: subs and bring guys off the bench to really change

982
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 4: the game. We saw that with a Rigi today against Everton,

983
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 4: and we've seen that in the past, even the games

984
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 4: against inter Milan, the first leg into Tomlan, the first

985
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 4: leg against Benfica when they went to the subs is

986
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 4: when they really started to separate a little bit and

987
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 4: created more chances against you know, the tired first eleven

988
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 4: of the opponent. And I think that could happen here.

989
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 4: It's a little bit of a concern for me. So

990
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 4: I'm going to take Vireal in the first half to

991
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 4: have a great defensive game plan to park the bush

992
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 4: and to effectively keep Liverpool out of transition here and

993
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 4: keep them away from a goal, hopefully in the first

994
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 4: half or maybe VI realit even sneaks one when we

995
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,319
Speaker 4: get the plus a half in that way, all.

996
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:44,240
Speaker 5: Right, that'll do it for a very yellow Submarine episode

997
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 5: of Wonder Goal for b J Couneham and Anthony Debundo.

998
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,399
Speaker 5: I'm Michael Leeboff, wishing you with the best of luck

999
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 5: with your soccer bets and we all live a yellow submarine.