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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree? Did you agree? I got five dollars? This

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Speaker 1: is a rain.

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Speaker 2: Happy trackle kit one man play. You're saying that humans

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Speaker 2: need fantasy to make life.

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Speaker 3: Bearable, humans need fantasy to be human? My goodness, that

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Speaker 3: miss good.

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Speaker 2: You guys are prose best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, baby, bless there.

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Speaker 2: What's up everybody, and welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond of the Action Network, and

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Speaker 2: this is our running a back one Fantasy preview episode

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Speaker 2: for twenty twenty three. Here to break it down with

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Speaker 2: me one of my fellow top five weekly rankers from

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Speaker 2: last year at Fantasy Pro, Shawn Kerner, Sean the odds maker.

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Speaker 3: What's going on up?

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Speaker 1: Hope you had to have before? Hopefully you're like at

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Speaker 1: the beach for the last five days.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was in it out, Yeah I was having

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Speaker 3: I was having a good time.

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Speaker 2: I was over there by the ocean. Always nice to

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Speaker 2: take it in. But it's about to be grind time.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, well we can still go to the beach

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Speaker 1: every once in a while, you know, hang out, but Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's about to be grind time.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, for everyone out there, what we're gonna do

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Speaker 2: in this episode, We're gonna go through all the running

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Speaker 2: backs with the top twelve eightyp and uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: for this episode, because we're dealing with highly drafted running backs,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna kind of focus on potential bus factors, risk factors,

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Speaker 2: things like that, because there's only so much good you

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Speaker 2: can say. And I think everyone knows why these guys

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Speaker 2: are being drafted where they are. But I always say,

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Speaker 2: in the first few rounds, you don't want to lose

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Speaker 2: your draft. So the more busts obviously you can avoid

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Speaker 2: early on the better, and then you take your shots

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Speaker 2: once you get outside those those high leverage rounds. But

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Speaker 2: sean to start us off before we get into the

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Speaker 2: running backs, just more of a real question, where are

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Speaker 2: you taking your first running back generally in draft this year?

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Speaker 3: Where do you think the sweet spot is? You know,

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Speaker 3: is it round one or round two? A month? Are you?

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Speaker 3: Are you waiting longer?

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Speaker 1: What are you doing? Well? You know, as always, I'm

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Speaker 1: typically somebody that likes drafting receivers or getting Travis Kelcey earlier,

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Speaker 1: but I think the market has adjusted. So you know,

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Speaker 1: this year we see a ton of receivers going in

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Speaker 1: round one, which I think makes sense. You know, when

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at my running back projections, you know I

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Speaker 1: have McCaffrey and Eckler top two, they're very close, they're

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Speaker 1: in a tier of their own, and then running backs

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Speaker 1: three through like nine I have separated by about four points.

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Speaker 1: So the fact that you can get some of these

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Speaker 1: backs in tier two as I would call it, like Derek, Henry,

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Speaker 1: Nick Chubb towards the end of round two, it makes

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Speaker 1: a ton of sense to just keep attacking wide receiver

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Speaker 1: in round one once McCaffrey and Eckler off the board.

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Speaker 1: So I'm usually getting a receiver in round one and

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Speaker 1: less have a chance to get McCaffrey or Eckler. So

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Speaker 1: that's kind of how I'm approaching it. Because wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: you know, there's a bunch of tiers and stuff, but

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Speaker 1: it does drop off pretty fast and it's a less

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Speaker 1: fragile position. So just the way it's shaping up, like

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Speaker 1: I said, the fact that a guy like Henry or

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Speaker 1: Chubb to make it back to you and you get

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Speaker 1: an elite receiver makes it very enticing to draft receiver

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Speaker 1: or Travis Kelson run one this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that the receiver drop off is key

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Speaker 3: for me. You know, it comes a little earlier.

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Speaker 2: It's like, one minute, you're drafting a guy like you know,

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Speaker 2: Mike Evans, who okay as a wide.

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Speaker 3: Receiver three you're not expecting too much.

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Speaker 2: But then you're getting into like juju territory real quick,

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Speaker 2: a guy who we don't even know where he is

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Speaker 2: in the pecking order, and you know, a lot of

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Speaker 2: rookies and things like that, just guys not much certainty there.

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Speaker 2: So I think, you know, the running back one tier,

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Speaker 2: you know you mentioned it, that second tier of guys

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Speaker 2: after McCaffrey and Ecker, who will talk about in a minute,

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Speaker 2: you know, bark Wee, Henry, Nick Chubb. I've been able

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Speaker 2: to get those guys weight round two as well, sometimes

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Speaker 2: even into round three. So I think that to me

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Speaker 2: is the sweet spot because when you compare with guys

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Speaker 2: like McCaffrey and Eckwer to the top receivers, you always

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Speaker 2: have to factor in that running backs are gonna miss

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Speaker 2: on average one to two more games than a wide receiver,

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Speaker 2: So you know that it's not like these guys McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: and Eckwer are bona fide like twenty five touch guys

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Speaker 2: like they're they're carrying, you know, twelve to fourteen times,

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Speaker 2: they getting a ton of receiving work.

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Speaker 3: But there is some variance with that.

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Speaker 2: So I do think that the sweet spot is you

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Speaker 2: know that Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Nick, Chubb range. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: usually the five through seven range in ADP. But let's

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Speaker 2: let's go through these guys are the adyp's McCaffrey's RB one,

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Speaker 2: Ekword two, Robinson three, Tailor four, Barkley five, Derrick Henry,

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Speaker 2: the King is six, Chubb, Jacob's Pollard, Harris, Ramandre Stevenson,

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Speaker 2: and Breese Hall around up.

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Speaker 3: The top twelve.

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Speaker 2: So McCaffrey overall RB one, you said you have him

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Speaker 2: as the RB one as well. I guess my question

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Speaker 2: for you two questions, like the only average about fourteen

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Speaker 2: carries a game with San Francisco, and you know, is

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Speaker 2: that enough to be the overall RB one in you know,

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Speaker 2: with the Shanahan backfield and the fact that there's always

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Speaker 2: some uncertainty. And number two, age twenty seven is usually

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Speaker 2: when a running back has peaked and starts to go

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Speaker 2: the other way.

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Speaker 3: Any concern there with with the.

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Speaker 1: Age, Yeah, the age is a concern and maybe not

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Speaker 1: seeing you know, a ton of twenty plus carries is

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Speaker 1: a concern, But the same goes for us Neckler, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: who's a year older. But they're kind of the same

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Speaker 1: player where yeah, they might not see a ton of

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Speaker 1: they might not see any games with twenty plus carries

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Speaker 1: this year, but they're getting all the more valuable touches.

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Speaker 1: You know, they're going to be the goal line back,

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Speaker 1: they're getting the receiving work. So they're very similar in

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Speaker 1: that regard. So we're just comparing apples to apples here.

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Speaker 1: So I'm giving the edge of McCaffrey because again he's

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Speaker 1: when you're younger. You know, we have one of the

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Speaker 1: best running backs in the game now and one of

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Speaker 1: the best schemes for running backs in the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 1: He was the RB one last year from Week eight

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Speaker 1: on once he became a full time starter for the Niners.

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Speaker 1: So plus, you know, having a full off season to

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Speaker 1: become even more entrench in this offense can't hurt. But

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Speaker 1: like I said, like I have these running backs very close,

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Speaker 1: just a couple points apart. I don't think many people

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Speaker 1: have Eckler being almost like a coin flip for the

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Speaker 1: RB one, but I do, and I think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: come down to brock Purdy. Honestly. You know, if brock

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Speaker 1: Purdy is healthy and starting week one, I like McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: as my RB one, but if there starts to be

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Speaker 1: you know, some rumors or news that Purdy might not

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Speaker 1: be ready week one, might not be ready by week three,

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Speaker 1: and we're having Trey Lance or Sam Darnold, you know,

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Speaker 1: starting week one. That might make it even or even

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Speaker 1: have Eckler leap program in my rankings. That's how close

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Speaker 1: it is. So I think this QB situation in San

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Speaker 1: Francisco could dictate his final ranking, But as of now,

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Speaker 1: he's my RB one, and.

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Speaker 2: You know, going right into Echer because I think these

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Speaker 2: two guys are interesting to compare. I think the question

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Speaker 2: for me is how much touchdown regression can he handle?

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Speaker 2: Because he's scored what is it, thirty Devin, I believe, like,

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Speaker 2: let me double check this. He has scored thirty eight

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Speaker 2: thirty eight touchdowns over his last thirty three games in

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Speaker 2: the past two seasons. Now, we've talked about this offense

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Speaker 2: under Kellen Moore. It was the fastest in the league

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Speaker 2: essentially with the Cowboys. The Chargers are already fast, but

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Speaker 2: you know the pace could go up. But Ekwer's never

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Speaker 2: averaged more than twelve point nine carriage per game in

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Speaker 2: a year. So you know, is is there even going

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Speaker 2: to be touchdown regression? I mean they're aways is yeah,

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Speaker 2: or I means we should expect it, But you know,

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Speaker 2: how much can he handle? And you know he's twenty eight,

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Speaker 2: how much any factor in that in with Ekwer?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean obviously you know, can't project them, can't

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Speaker 1: project his median for eighteen total touchdowns this year, but

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Speaker 1: I have thirteen, which which is really good. You know,

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Speaker 1: he's getting the goal line work. That's the most important thing. Uh.

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Speaker 1: He saw six touchdowns on eleven rush attempts inside the five,

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Speaker 1: so I having about a touchdown and a half of

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Speaker 1: regression potentially coming there. You know, again, he has such

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Speaker 1: a high floor CELINGD combo with just the receiving where

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Speaker 1: he gets the goal line usage.

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Speaker 3: So even with.

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Speaker 1: Touchdown agression, I still have him getting thirteen total. The

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Speaker 1: only concern I could say for Eckler is the fact

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Speaker 1: that you know he's coming off career highs and targets

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Speaker 1: with one hundred and twenty seven and receptions one oh seven.

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Speaker 1: And if you just remember making projections for him last year,

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Speaker 1: normally Keenan Allen and or Mike Williams was out, so

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Speaker 1: he was always getting a spike in targets. As a result,

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Speaker 1: both receivers only healthy for four games, so just considering

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Speaker 1: we will likely see improved health from both of them.

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Speaker 1: They also added a first round talent in Quinton Johnson.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's just gonna be tough for Eckler to

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Speaker 1: maintain that massive target share. Obviously, he's going to be

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Speaker 1: one of the best pass catching backs in the league still,

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Speaker 1: but last year was probably going to be, you know,

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Speaker 1: his career high. So that's the only concern I think

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Speaker 1: in terms of regression is just in receptions overall. And

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Speaker 1: obviously you know, not being able to duplicate eighteen touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: but not many running backs can. So having said that,

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Speaker 1: he's still my RB two and nearly my RB one

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Speaker 1: just because we can bank on him getting all those

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Speaker 1: high value targets and touches around the goal line. So

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Speaker 1: just after all that, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: you still have an elite high end RB one and

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Speaker 1: Austin Eckler.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think, you know, the circumstances are still there

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Speaker 2: for the touchdowns. I mean it should be a fast

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Speaker 2: paced the Chargers offense should be healthier.

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Speaker 1: Better than possibly better.

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Speaker 3: You know, Kevin Moore probably opens it up a little bit.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not overly concerned.

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Speaker 2: I do think again, I don't think this is necessarily

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Speaker 2: the sweet spot for running backs. I still rather have

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Speaker 2: a receiver. We're Travis Kelcey this high in the draft,

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Speaker 2: but I want's move on to number three. Bijon Robinson.

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Speaker 2: You know how many touches per game are you expecting

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Speaker 2: him to have? How many does he need per game?

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Speaker 2: Do you think to pay off this EIGHTP because RB three,

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Speaker 2: I mean there's.

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Speaker 3: Really no room for ever now.

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Speaker 2: It's you know, you're kind of drafting him at you know,

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Speaker 2: to see I mean, the ceiling is overall RB one,

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Speaker 2: but you're pretty much there already without seeing him play

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Speaker 2: it down in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So this is this is where the running back

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Speaker 1: position opens up in my opinion, and I haven't met

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Speaker 1: RB four. I don't think you're crazy at all if

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Speaker 1: you take him as a third running back like you said,

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Speaker 1: he has RB one overall upside as soon as this year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's a generational talent. He landed in a

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Speaker 1: fantastic spot. I mean, the Falcons were already ranked third

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Speaker 1: in DVA and rushing last year, and now they have

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Speaker 1: Bijon in that offense. So they also drafted Matthew berger

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Speaker 1: On in the second round, who was like a first

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Speaker 1: round talent in terms of like run blocking. He should

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Speaker 1: be really good. So it's clear that the Falcons are

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Speaker 1: gonna lean on the run again, especially Bijon. So I

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Speaker 1: have him averaging around you know, sixteen to seventeen rush

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Speaker 1: of teps a game. Now he's capable of being like

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Speaker 1: a five catch a game back, but this offense unfortunately

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Speaker 1: doesn't throw much, especially the running back, so I have

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Speaker 1: him around three catches a game. I think that's where

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Speaker 1: the floor might come into play. So he has all

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Speaker 1: the tools to be the RB one overall, but just

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Speaker 1: certain things like that might set him back. Plus Tyler

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Speaker 1: Algier could command enough touches, you know, to possibly around

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Speaker 1: the goalline, who knows, to kind of lower Jon's weekly projection.

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Speaker 1: But you know, he has RB one overall upside. So

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Speaker 1: if there were a time if there were back to

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Speaker 1: kind of take early, it would be him. But again,

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Speaker 1: like I said, this is the time I think I'm

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Speaker 1: still drafting receivers because you can get a guy like

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Speaker 1: Henry or Chubb, who I'm projecting about the same as

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Speaker 1: Bijon nearly around later. So it's just in terms of

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Speaker 1: my draft strategy, the flow of the draft, someone in

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Speaker 1: your draft is gonna love Bejeon enough to take him

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Speaker 1: inside the top nine. So it's hard to get too much.

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Speaker 1: And while I'm not saying don't fade him completely, he

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Speaker 1: just doesn't fully you know, enter my draft strategy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Like if I had one draft, I'm probably not

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Speaker 2: taking I'm I'm probably not taking any of the top

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Speaker 2: four running backs. Oh yeah they are because Jonathan Taylor

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Speaker 2: is number four, and you know with Bijon, I mean

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Speaker 2: I think, I think, yeah, I think that's the concern

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Speaker 2: is we don't truly know, you know, we're kind of

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Speaker 2: looking at you know, past data for running backs drafted

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Speaker 2: is high. Yes, they put up a lot of touches.

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Speaker 2: You know, in year one running backs don't take time

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Speaker 2: to really develop. They're usually good right away. So he's

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Speaker 2: got all that working in his favor, but this is

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Speaker 2: still a Falcons team that they they're kind of loading

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Speaker 2: up our running backs.

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Speaker 3: They like to run them out.

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Speaker 2: So there, you know, there could be some someone, you know,

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Speaker 2: some kind of volatility week to week, especially if we

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Speaker 2: don't if he has kind of like an undefined role

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Speaker 2: in the passing game. I've heard they want to put

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Speaker 2: him out in the which could be good. But that's

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Speaker 2: I think the question, which is, you know, like, what

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Speaker 2: do you think the floor is for Robinson in terms

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Speaker 2: of his like what would be the carry floor?

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Speaker 1: You think not per game fourteen carries. I mean his

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Speaker 1: floor is still like probably a top ten running back

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Speaker 1: in this offense, So I think he has a high floor,

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Speaker 1: high ceiling combo. I think Saquon Barkley probably still has

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Speaker 1: a higher floor just because he's getting pretty much every touch.

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Speaker 1: But there's there's enough volume to go around where Tyler

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Speaker 1: Algier could be a top forty back and Bijon is

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Speaker 1: still a top five back, so I don't really think

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Speaker 1: he has that level floor. Again, I think it does

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Speaker 1: come back to his receiving usage. If you look at

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Speaker 1: weeks one through thirteen last year, when Marcus Mariota was quarterback,

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Speaker 1: they averaged three targets again their runningbacks total. You know,

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Speaker 1: that's with Cordella Patterson there, and then weeks fifteen through

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Speaker 1: eighteen with Desmond under center, it was closer to seven

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Speaker 1: targets a game. So it was encouraging at least to

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Speaker 1: see Ritter, you know, be more willing to throw it

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Speaker 1: to running backs. Now, granted, Kyle Pitts was out bringing

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Speaker 1: that stretch, so that could have something to do with that.

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Speaker 1: But I think at the end of the day, it

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Speaker 1: comes down to, you know, how many receptions will Robinson

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Speaker 1: get a game. I think his flour for carries, like

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Speaker 1: I said, is fourteen plus. But if he can average

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Speaker 1: more than three catches a game, now we're talking potential,

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Speaker 1: you know, top three range. So that that's kind of

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Speaker 1: where the questionable projection for me with Robinson is. And

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Speaker 1: I do think he'll be the goal line back. But again,

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Speaker 1: Tyler Algier was legit last year, so I don't want

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Speaker 1: to be shocked if Algier, you know, snipes a couple

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Speaker 1: of touchdowns from him. So those are just the concerns.

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Speaker 1: But as a talent, I mean, he could be the

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Speaker 1: best running back in the league this year. It's just

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Speaker 1: those those other factors make me think that he's closer

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Speaker 1: to you know, RB four, RB five, Yeah, exactly like

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Speaker 1: he's He's not.

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Speaker 3: He's a great player. It's just a slam dunk, Like

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Speaker 3: none of these guys feel like a slam dunk.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Running back Jonathan Taylor's next up. He's R before.

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Speaker 2: You know, twenty one essentially just twenty two touches per

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Speaker 2: game two years ago, twenty per game last year. You know,

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Speaker 2: it kind of seemed like a down year, but now

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Speaker 2: you switch to Shane Steichen and a new offense. Frank

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Speaker 2: Reich is gone, Saturday's gone. Do you think Taylor continues

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Speaker 2: to see similar usage in the last couple years where

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Speaker 2: he's getting upwards of twenty touches a game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's possible, but he has to to

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Speaker 1: warrant this ADP. And what I gather, what you're saying

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Speaker 1: is you're kind of just holding out at running back

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Speaker 1: to begin with. And while I'm saying I'm doing the

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Speaker 1: same thing, I'll all sprinkle in some McCaffrey, Eckler, certainly

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Speaker 1: Barkley and Dijon, But like Taylor R before, if somebody's

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Speaker 1: taken in there, I'm not taking him. He's got a

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Speaker 1: fall like outside of the top six or seven for

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Speaker 1: me to consider him. You know, last year he had

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Speaker 1: that ankle injury that really just derailed his season. He

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Speaker 1: was RB twenty five in points per game, and he

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Speaker 1: was RB twenty one in weeks one through four when

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Speaker 1: he was presumably healthy. So you know, he's too talented

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Speaker 1: not to bounce back. He's also super durable, so it's

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Speaker 1: hard to like label him as like an injury risk.

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Speaker 1: But you know, the Colts offense is going to be

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Speaker 1: featuring likely a rookie quarterback this year in Anthony Richardson.

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Speaker 1: Who's you know, a rushing quarterback. So I just don't

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Speaker 1: see the upside in drafting Taylor as a top five back.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he just doesn't offer the same receiving upside

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Speaker 1: that like a lot of these backs have. So I

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Speaker 1: think he needs like a perfect bounce back to warrant this,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not even sure we can count on that. So,

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Speaker 1: especially in this range, I'm not taking Taylor this hide.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the thing.

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Speaker 2: About Taylor is, you know, this division, even though they

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Speaker 2: I mean they could for all intensive purposes, finished in

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Speaker 2: last place, but I mean the schedule still is not

342
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Speaker 2: too hard, but I agree, I think there I think

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Speaker 2: the guys going after him offer the same, if not

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Speaker 2: more value in terms of their ceiling floor combination, you know,

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Speaker 2: than a guy in a new offense that could be

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Speaker 2: bad with you know, either Minshew or Richardson at quarterback.

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Speaker 2: You know, we don't and you know, there was talk

348
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Speaker 2: this offseason, you know, Taylor himself said, hey, you know,

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Speaker 2: I got I'm probably gonna have to focus more on

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Speaker 2: efficiency this year, which tells me that, you know, they

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Speaker 2: might not give him the same workload that he was

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Speaker 2: getting under Frank Right, because I mean that that year

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Speaker 2: under Frank Right, especially two years ago, was just, you know,

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Speaker 2: everything kind of went right for them. And last year,

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Speaker 2: you know, you had Rik and then you had another

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Speaker 2: coach who was into the run in Saturday. And I

357
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Speaker 2: think Stichen will be as well. But remember, you know,

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Speaker 2: he he kind of rotated three guys in there with Philly.

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Speaker 2: You know, he kind of oversaw that last year with

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Speaker 2: Miles Sanders not really happy in the in a lead role.

361
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,680
Speaker 2: So it's possible Tailor is used a little bit more

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Speaker 2: like that than than the true you know, twenty twenty

363
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 2: two touch per game guy he's been so for me, like,

364
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 2: I see a less chance of that happening with the

365
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 2: next guy, which is Saquon Barkley. He did have three

366
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty two touches last year, but that was

367
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Speaker 2: his first time with three hundred qus since his rookie year.

368
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Speaker 2: He's still only twenty six. Do you think he can

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00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 2: hold up to for another year of his high end usage,

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Speaker 2: because if he does, I think he I think he

371
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 2: has a running back overall, one overall upside and he

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Speaker 2: may get more snaps than any of the other guys

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Speaker 2: we've we've talked about so far.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, And you know he's he's twenty six, so

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Speaker 1: I would consider the tail end of his prime. I

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Speaker 1: think we have one more potential RB one overall type

377
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,239
Speaker 1: of upside with him. And last year it wasn't too

378
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 1: surprising that he bounced back because he was fully healthy.

379
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 1: He's still one of the best running backs in the game.

380
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Speaker 1: When healthy, He's gonna see a ton of usage on

381
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Speaker 1: the ground and through the air, more so than McCaffrey

382
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 1: and Eckler, where if you just combine his rush attempts

383
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,520
Speaker 1: and receptions, like he could see the most volume out

384
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Speaker 1: of these packs. So he's my RB three right now,

385
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Speaker 1: and again it comes down to draft strategy. There's some

386
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 1: times where you can get him at the turn. I

387
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,199
Speaker 1: think that's when it's ideal to get him. You can

388
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,400
Speaker 1: pair him up with the top receiver. So the fact

389
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 1: that you can get him with one of those tier

390
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:22,679
Speaker 1: two receivers is very enticing. So he just goes at

391
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,359
Speaker 1: like a great spot to target running back early because

392
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 1: like I said, he's my RB three. It's close between

393
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 1: RB three and RB nine, but I think he goes

394
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 1: in that sweet spot. So yeah, we still might have

395
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 1: I haven't seen his best season yet. They still only

396
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 1: have Matt Brida and they added Eric Gray who's okay

397
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,119
Speaker 1: as a prospect, so he doesn't have much competition, so

398
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,640
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna lean on him heavily this year.

399
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 1: So he just has a very high floor and one

400
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 1: of the highest ceilings at the position. So I think

401
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 1: he makes a ton of sense.

402
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 2: RB five, Yeah, I think he's a He's a guy

403
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 2: that makes me feel fine about, you know, skipping out

404
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 2: on running back in the first round because you know,

405
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 2: like he's a guy who I would target, you know,

406
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 2: early second if I'm drafting weight wait in the first

407
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 2: or you know, made if he gets back. But I

408
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 2: think I agree, I think he should be the RB

409
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: three because, like you said, the volume, I think he

410
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: you know, three hundred and fifty two touches last year.

411
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 2: You know that's going to project out for significantly more

412
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,359
Speaker 2: than McCaffrey and Eckwery. Now there they should be a

413
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 2: little more efficient, but at the end of the day,

414
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 2: a lot we're trying to eliminate the risks and you know,

415
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 2: a lot of the stuff, you know, Eckward depends on

416
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 2: touchdowns a lot.

417
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 3: McCaffrey were just kind.

418
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 2: Of hoping he continues to get these touches in the

419
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 2: right places in this offense because channay he will kind

420
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 2: of swap guys out. But Barkley, there's really no question

421
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 2: marks other than will we sign this, you know, will

422
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:49,680
Speaker 2: they get a long term deal, will be playing a

423
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 2: franchise tag?

424
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,640
Speaker 3: What's going on? That's really the only thing with him

425
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 3: in the health.

426
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think he's a little safer than definitely

427
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:02,199
Speaker 2: than tailored than than Bijon as well. And then Derrick Henry,

428
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 2: he's RB six and he's another guy I think. I mean,

429
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 2: you know, people look at him, Okay, age twenty nine,

430
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,240
Speaker 2: and yeah, that's a concern that's passed running backs prime.

431
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 2: But you know, looking at Henry, he's still getting the

432
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: twenty plus carries a game. I don't see any reason

433
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 2: that Tennessee's going to go off him. So when I

434
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: when I'm drafting guys, now I'm saying, Okay, you know,

435
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 2: which of these guys can be the overall RB one?

436
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 2: And you know, I think Barkley and then Henry have

437
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: probably a better shot at being that overall RB one

438
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,720
Speaker 2: than Taylor Vijon Due. And I don't think the risk

439
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 2: is that different because we know Henry is going to

440
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 2: continue to get twenty nine, you know, twenty plus carries

441
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: as long as he can handle it.

442
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,719
Speaker 3: Now can he handle it? We I mean last year

443
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 3: he did. You know, he got the injury of the

444
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: year before last year he did.

445
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 2: So how are you kind of looking at at Henry

446
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 2: and expecting him to hold up in his age twenty

447
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 2: nine season.

448
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, so he's twenty nine and this is this is

449
00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 1: around the time I said we should see him start

450
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: to really decline. But he's still going to see a

451
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,440
Speaker 1: ton of volume. He still has double digit touchdown upside,

452
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: and it was nice to see he saw an uptick

453
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: in you know, receiving usage last year, which is nice.

454
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: But you know the Titans, you know, they have arguably

455
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: the worst offensive line heading in the season, which could

456
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 1: be a concern. So Henry's going to have to really

457
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 1: earn all his yards and possibly have fewer positive game

458
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: scripts than usual. You know, the Titans have you know,

459
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 1: went total closer to seven. And I guess there's a

460
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: there's still a chance that he gets traded in season

461
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 1: right or by the end of the season. So if

462
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: that were to happen, it would likely be to a

463
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 1: better situation, kind of like Christian McCaffrey last year. I mean, imagine,

464
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,440
Speaker 1: just I'm hypothesizing here, but if like Nick Chubber to

465
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: go down, the Browns could maybe you know, pry Henry away,

466
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: and now Henry's playing as the workhorse back behind an

467
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 1: elite offensive line, you know, Like, I think a potential

468
00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 1: trade only enhances his ceiling rather than her. So again,

469
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: I think it comes down to where he's going is

470
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,959
Speaker 1: like the sweet spot for running backs in my opinion,

471
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: because he's going mid to late round two and some drafts,

472
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 1: so you're able to get Kelsey or tier two receiver

473
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: like Cooper Cup and then Hunter Henry or Derrick Henry

474
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 1: and round yeah, could you imagine? And then Derrick Henry

475
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: and round two, like, sign me up for that. However,

476
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 1: there is a chance there's some times where I do

477
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 1: lean Nick Chubb. It's more of a fifty to fifty

478
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: split of Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry in that range

479
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 1: for me, because I do think Nick Chubb is one

480
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: of those backs that does have RB one overall upside

481
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: as well. But at the end of the day, these

482
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: two backs are going mid to late second round, which

483
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: is I think is criminal. I think that's when I

484
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 1: like taking my first running back.

485
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look at Henry, you know more in terms

486
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: of the things he can control. His yards after contact

487
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 2: last year was three point six. For his career it's

488
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: three point seven, so he's still pretty efficient. His yards

489
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: before contact has been low each of the you mentioned

490
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: the old line. It's been around one or below each

491
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 2: of the last two years, which is bad, usually around

492
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: one to three on average.

493
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: Not his fault, not his fault.

494
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, But like at the end of the day, I

495
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 2: don't know his offensive line can get much worse. So

496
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: you still you still are projecting him for around still

497
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 2: a little bit above the league average in terms, you know,

498
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 2: around four and a half yards per carry. Uh, And

499
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 2: we know he's capable more and nothing really has to

500
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 2: change with the way he's being used, and he could

501
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: finishes the number one running back. So I love him

502
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: in this spot. You know, he could just four straight

503
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 2: years of twenty plus carries. It's gonna end sometime. But

504
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: we know all running backs are injury risk, and there's

505
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 2: that many running backs that would get this kind of

506
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 2: are you know, not even if somebody got hurt, we'd

507
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 2: get this kind of usage that Derreck Henry gets. See,

508
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: I love Henry where he's going. I'll take him all

509
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 2: day as my number one running back. Nick Chubb RB seven.

510
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 2: You mentioned him seventeen point eight carries per game last year,

511
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: one point six catches per game. There's his role change

512
00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 2: at all. Kareem Hunt as as far as we know,

513
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: not going to be back on this team and not

514
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 2: signed to not on a contract. So Chubb, you know,

515
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 2: could I guess increase on that but waiting projecting, Yeah.

516
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 1: I mean he could be in line for his best

517
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: season yet. You know, even at age twenty eight. He's

518
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: still elite. You know, He's average over five yards per

519
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: carry every year of his career, gets to play behind

520
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: one of the best offensive lines in football still, and

521
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 1: this offense could be much better this year if you

522
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: think Deshaun Watson's gonna you know, bounce back to even

523
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 1: close what we saw in Houston. So I think without

524
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 1: cream Hunt, you know, we could see a bigger workload,

525
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 1: especially in the passing game. I think at the end

526
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: of the day, they're always going to try to limit

527
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,239
Speaker 1: Chubb to a certain extent. You know, I don't think

528
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: they're gonna let him run, you know, three hundred and

529
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 1: fifty times. But he still has a ton of upside

530
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 1: this year with no Cream Hunt backing him up. You know,

531
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 1: I do like Jerome Ford, but he's nowhere near Kareem Hunt.

532
00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to carve out a role

533
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: quite like we saw cre Hunt over the years. So

534
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,920
Speaker 1: I think, again, this is the perfect time to take

535
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: a back like Nick Chubb, who I'm projecting similarly similarly

536
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 1: to Derrick Henry. So the fact that you can get

537
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 1: you know, Travis Kelcey or an elite receiver like Cooper

538
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: cup In round one and then still get Nick Chubb

539
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 1: in round two from that draft slot is very enticing.

540
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 1: So I think Nick Chubb, you know, again, he still

541
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: has a very high floor ceiling combo for a late

542
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: round two running back. So I think this is the

543
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: time I like to get a running back because it

544
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: does start to fall off after these guys. But again,

545
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: I think he really does have number one overall upside

546
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: if he inherits you know, more of this passing down work.

547
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, because he's another guy.

548
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: I mean, just you look at the backfields and say, okay,

549
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 2: you know who's a guy who could have like a

550
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs here where they you know, they used to

551
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 2: take him out some passing as but they just don't

552
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:53,959
Speaker 2: as much. That could be Nick Chubb this year. I mean,

553
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 2: Jerome Ford is you know, he's a nice little deep sleeper.

554
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, I don't think he's I don't think the

555
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 2: Browns Coachesta is losing sleep a night figuring out how

556
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 2: to get forward more touches.

557
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 3: Anything like that. So but I mean, you know, Chubb

558
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 3: is twenty eight as well, and he concerned about the age.

559
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 2: But I feel like a lot of other guys, you know,

560
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 2: kind of getting discounted for their age a little bit.

561
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: Chubb doesn't seem to be really at all, but.

562
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: He's twenty eight now, he's got a pretty heavy workload

563
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 2: is for his five years in the week, Any any

564
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: thoughts on his age, Yeah.

565
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 1: To a certain ex you know, with him, you know,

566
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: we're not banking on a ton of like eighty yard

567
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: runs things like that. I mean with him, he's such

568
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: a good pure runner, arguably the best pure runner in

569
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 1: the game still at this age. Again, it comes down

570
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 1: to offensive line. The scheme is really how you know,

571
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 1: we get to We're projecting him over five yards of carry,

572
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: so I think he would you know, if there is

573
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 1: any sort of decline, it could be offset with just

574
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: this offense being better, setting him up for easier touchdowns.

575
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: So he's out the kind of player that I think

576
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: we're really banking on, you know, him being super explosive

577
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: because he's in his prime. I think he's just a

578
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: quality running back that reads his blocks well, has a

579
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: really good offensive line. So he's the guy I would expect,

580
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: you know, a slower decline, and you know, especially at

581
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: twenty eight, he's not going to fall off a cliff.

582
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: Maybe twenty nine to thirty, that's when he'll start to

583
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: fall off. But I think right now he still has

584
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: that upside just based on the scheme, his offensive line,

585
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 1: his running style, and just his his sheer talent. So

586
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 1: I think he can hold off that decline for another

587
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 1: year or two at least.

588
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

589
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, and offensive line is is very good in Cleveland.

590
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: I do expect this offense to be to be good

591
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 2: with an offseason of for Watson, and it's really not

592
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: many week winks on this offense. Josh Jacobs is the

593
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: Rbaight's He's a guy that worries me. I'm you know,

594
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 2: wondering where your risk level with him is. He he

595
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 2: had the you know, more than three hundred and twenty

596
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: carries last year. That's been kind of a curse since

597
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 2: twenty thirteen, excluding Wayveon Bell who sat out the next year,

598
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 2: been five backs that have carried that much, and they've

599
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 2: averaged seven miss games the next year. They've decreased a

600
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: full yard per carry the next year. And you know,

601
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: Jacob's not really gonna be in camp much. There's still

602
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 2: the issue with his contract, you know, going to a

603
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: new quarterback going to the I mean just nothing's really

604
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: worked in this McDaniel era outside of Jacob's last year.

605
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 2: But like, I think that was a little bit of

606
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: a perfect storm. So I'm a little worried about him

607
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 2: heading into this year.

608
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: I think the greatst could be really bad. What about you?

609
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree, And that's the best way to

610
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: put it. It was just a perfect storm last year

611
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: for him, And honestly, the time to get him was

612
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: last year he was a league winner, obviously went around

613
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 1: RB twenty. Now you kind of have to buy him

614
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 1: near his ceiling. You know, he's coming off three hundred

615
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: and seventy five touch season, so i'd be careful about that,

616
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: plus the potential holdout. Also, you know, this Jimmy g

617
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: situation could go south pretty quick. The Raiders season could

618
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 1: get ugly real fast. So that's a potential floor for

619
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: him that's kind of out of his control. So there's

620
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 1: a lot more pass for him hitting his floor than

621
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: other running backs in this tier. That's why he's at

622
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 1: the bottom of my tier two at running backs. So

623
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: I would actually take Tony Pollard over him. If Tony

624
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: Power's off the board, all these other running backs are

625
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: off the board and I can get Josh Jacobs at

626
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: the end of round two, before there's a drop off

627
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 1: at the position. That's the only time I could see

628
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: myself taking him, But usually that's not the case. So

629
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: I think Jacobs is the guy I'm kind of shying

630
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 1: away from because again, I rather have Henry Chubb, who

631
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 1: are going around this time, or even Tony Pollard. So

632
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 1: Jacobs is the guy I'm usually avoiding unless he falls

633
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 1: to me at the end of round two or the

634
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: beginning of round three.

635
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, because you know, kind of talked about the perfect storm.

636
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 3: It's last year.

637
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 2: Even though the Raiders lost eleven games they had I

638
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 2: believe nine of them were by one score, so they

639
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 2: were in a lot of games, Whereas I don't see

640
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 2: the defense getting a ton.

641
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 3: Better this year, if at all.

642
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 2: And you know, with the quarterback situation, I mean, they

643
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 2: could be starting somebody that's not even on the roster,

644
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 2: Brian Hoyer or rookie.

645
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 3: Agent O'Connell might have to make starts. Who knows.

646
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: I mean, Jimmy Garoppolo, even if he's healthy for Week one,

647
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 2: not likely to play a full season. He almost never does,

648
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 2: so yeah, I think I think there's some significant concerns.

649
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: I think the floor for Chubb is a lot higher,

650
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 2: and the floor for Chrubb and the guys above Jacobs

651
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 2: is a lot higher than Jacobs, and then you know

652
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 2: guys going down.

653
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 3: But let's talk about Pollard.

654
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 2: Just over twelve carriers per game last year, just under

655
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 2: two and a half catches, but he only played fifty

656
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 2: three percent of the snaps.

657
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 3: How much do you expect his role to grow this season?

658
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's gonna grow a lot. And I've

659
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 1: been waiting for this moment, similar to when you know,

660
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: the Titans had DeMarco Murray, Dion Lewis. I was waiting

661
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: for them to get out the way for Derrick Henry.

662
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: Similar to you know, Dallas Godd play behind zach Ertz,

663
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 1: so we finally get you know, Tony Pollard without Zeke

664
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 1: in the mix. So you know, I love his upside.

665
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: You know, he was with the RB seven last year

666
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: with Zeke there, you know, healthy for most much of

667
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: the season. And you know, Pollard has top five, top

668
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: three upside without Zeke. You know, some of the legit

669
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: concerns taking him early would be just the fact that

670
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: the Cowboys could bring Zeke back or just another bigger back.

671
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 1: You know, right now, he doesn't have much competition, so

672
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 1: that could change. They might be waiting to see how

673
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 1: healthy is you know, heading into Week one. That's that's

674
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: a mild concern as well. Plus the other concern is

675
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: just the fact that you know, Pollard scored nine rushing

676
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 1: touchdowns last year, only two came inside the five. You

677
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: don't want a running back to rely on long touchdowns,

678
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: which which he certainly did last year. But you know,

679
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: Zeke's leaving behind nineteen carries inside the five, So if

680
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: he's able to pick up that, that's where I think

681
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: he unlocks his top three upside because we already know

682
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: he's a good pass catching back. You know he can

683
00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: handle fifteen plus carries a game. But if he also

684
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: gets that goal line work that Zeke is leaving behind,

685
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 1: that's where I think he's a top three type of back.

686
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 1: And I think right now, you know, even at RB nine,

687
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: I think you're getting some value. He's my RB five

688
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 1: right now. Not saying you should draft him five because

689
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 1: a you don't have to. He typically does last until

690
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: the end of the second round, but be you know,

691
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 1: the Cowboys might bring in running back, so you have

692
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: to factor that in. But as of right now, I

693
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: think getting you know, Pollard at the end of round

694
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 1: two with the ninth running back off the board is

695
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: a steal.

696
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 2: And how do you think about you know, him holding up,

697
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 2: because I think that's probably the biggest go with one

698
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 2: of these concerns, because I like in college is more

699
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 2: of like a wide receiver's high I believe was just

700
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: under one hundred and twenty touches for a college season,

701
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 2: and then last year two hundred and thirty two touches

702
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 2: was as high.

703
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 3: But of course he gets injured at the end of it,

704
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 3: more of a freak injury.

705
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: But any concerns there with his durability, yeah, certainly, you know,

706
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: there was never a concern where you know, if Zeke

707
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 1: was out for game or two, you know he could

708
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: handle twenty plus touches. But you never know if you know,

709
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: a bat can hold up an entire season like that.

710
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: If anything, you know, maybe it becomes like a McCaffrey

711
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: echo situation where they kind of limit him to the

712
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: most valuable touches, you know, like the passing network, goal

713
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 1: line work, and they give like Ronald Jones or Mink Davis,

714
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: you know, those between the twenties carries. If that were

715
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: to happen, they'd be fine with me. I still think

716
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: he has top five upside, but yeah, that I think

717
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: that is a fair point, just wondering if he can

718
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: you know, endure a full workload for a full season.

719
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 1: But again, he finished RB seven last year even in

720
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: a semi limited role, so I think just expanding that

721
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 1: at all just offers massive upside, and I think he can't.

722
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 1: He could certainly handle you know, over two hundred carries

723
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: in a season, so I think that's a fair concern.

724
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: Maybe that means he doesn't have RB one overall upside.

725
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: I think you're just still getting a ton of upside

726
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 1: at RB nine right now.

727
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do feel better about him than Josh Jacobs

728
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 2: at RB eight, but I still do like Chubb Henry

729
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 2: Barkley over him.

730
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Naji Harris's RB ten.

731
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: He averaged eighteen about eighteen and a half touches per

732
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 2: game last year, but the Steers went super run heavy

733
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: and David Warren was cutting into Harris's you know, percentage

734
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 2: based workload in terms of the snaps and the routes

735
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 2: running the passing game. So do you think Harris can

736
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: maintain you know, those eighteen plus touches per game this year.

737
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: Do you think that's gonna trend down?

738
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: I think he could, But again, just having that doubt

739
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: kind of loses the appeel for him, because the appeal

740
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: for Harris has always just been massive volume, and you

741
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: know he's not gonna have the most efficient metrics. You

742
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: could just bank on volume, but the fact that Jalen

743
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: Warren is making a push to make this more of

744
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 1: a committee. He already did last year in terms of

745
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: you know, receiving usage. But you know he could start

746
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:08,759
Speaker 1: eating in his carries as well. You know that. That's

747
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: why I'm kind of shining away from Harris. Plus we'll

748
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 1: get to this later, but you know, I just have

749
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: a ton of Jalen Warren chairs in general, so that

750
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 1: his ceiling is kind of nage here is missing sometimes,

751
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:23,320
Speaker 1: So I'm trying to shy away from Harris. But you

752
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: know where nause is going. This is where the running

753
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 1: back position starts to drop off. Where started to have

754
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,479
Speaker 1: a lot of concerns with some of these other backs

755
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,280
Speaker 1: that are being drafted as high as RB thirteen fourteen.

756
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 1: So I think he still is a safe, you know,

757
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: low end RB one play, but just with Jalen Warren

758
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: there that does cap his upside and exposes him to

759
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 1: have a lower floor than I think we realize.

760
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree.

761
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: I think a lot of it last year was, you know,

762
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 2: down the stretch, Pittsburgh was able, they kind of recommitted

763
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 2: to the run and they were able to run the

764
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,839
Speaker 2: ball up. But you know a lot of good game

765
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: scripts and that could continue this year. But you know,

766
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 2: there's still projected to be last place in that division.

767
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: Things it hasn't come quite as easy for them. So

768
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 2: you could see a downtick in his usage, you know,

769
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 2: just based on the percentages because they were kind of

770
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 2: going down from you know where he was earlier in

771
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: the season in terms of this percentage of the team

772
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 2: carries and whatnot. You know, over his last six games

773
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 2: he had just about fifty seven percent of the backfield carries,

774
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: you know, just over just over half, which but because

775
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 2: Fifthburg was in a lot of you know, good game

776
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,720
Speaker 2: scripts or whatnot, that still came out to like nineteen

777
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:38,240
Speaker 2: a game, which is very unrealistic for a guy getting fifteen.

778
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 2: You know, if you're projecting fifty seven percent, if you're

779
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 2: projecting forward, you're more likely looking at you know, ten

780
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: to twelve carries per games. So I do think, yeah,

781
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 2: there's a pretty significant floor here, especially because I think

782
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 2: Warren did outplay him in a bunch of areas. Warren

783
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 2: out played him in the passing game, blocking as well.

784
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I think I think he has a

785
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 2: pretty pretty low floor for RBT. And that's that's like

786
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: I said, I think the sweet spot is, you know,

787
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 2: kind of that that mid range RB one, you know,

788
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,800
Speaker 2: the bark we the the Henry's, the Chubbs, the Polls,

789
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 2: those guys. Once I get to Jacobs, I kind of

790
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 2: get worried. Harris the same thing. Romandre Stevenson's RB eleven,

791
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 2: he averaged sixteen and a half touches per game. But

792
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 2: now we're going to this Bill O'Brien offense, and it

793
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 2: never seemed like like they always kind of had another

794
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 2: back and it just seemed like Romandre wud get his

795
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: biggest usage when Damien Harris was out. So you know,

796
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 2: this year we have the quote from him saying I'm

797
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: kind of the guy and you know, just unproven guys

798
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 2: behind him or you know, older veterans like Time Montgomery.

799
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 2: So where are you projecting Stevenson's kind of workload in

800
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 2: this new offense.

801
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's really tricky because you know he's my

802
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: RB ten. I still like him. Last season, he definitely

803
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 1: had similarroy you said with Josh Jacobs. Stevenson definitely had

804
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 1: the perfect storm of factors lead to his breakout. You know,

805
00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:59,879
Speaker 1: James White retire, time Montgomery got injured. I think Monk

806
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: could have been a bigger factor in the passing game,

807
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 1: and Damien Harris was injured a ton of games, so

808
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 1: you know, he was the RB ten from week six on.

809
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: And you know, I think a lot of those factors

810
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: are still there. You know, James White is still retired,

811
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 1: Damien Harris is now on the Bills, and I'm not

812
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 1: as worried about Ty Montgomery, even Pierre Strong. You know, factoring,

813
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,919
Speaker 1: you know enough to matter. So I think Stevenson still

814
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 1: has some sneaky top ten upside. He's actually like in

815
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: tier three by himself. I have n't bet a tier

816
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,439
Speaker 1: above Naji Harris because this offense should be better under

817
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien. I mean, it can't be much worse than

818
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: having Matt Patricia trying to figure out on the fly

819
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: last year. But Bill O'Brien, you know, He's leaned on

820
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 1: workhorse backs in his career, with Aaron Foster, Lamar Miller,

821
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 1: even Carlos Hyde, So I'm not as worried as like

822
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 1: the Belichick always needs to have a committee thing. I

823
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 1: think Stevenson, like you said, like he said, should be

824
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 1: the guy this year. Some other reasons to be excited

825
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 1: is just you know, Mac Jones loves dumping it off

826
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 1: to his running backs. The Pats had the second highest

827
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 1: running back target percentage last season. You know, Stevenson could

828
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 1: also see some pretty significant positive touchdown regression. He had

829
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 1: the worst red zone luck in my model, where he

830
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 1: only scored two touchdowns on twelve rush attempts inside the five,

831
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 1: So he lost about three touchdowns you know, on just

832
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 1: you know, bad luck. I guess you'd call it. But

833
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 1: he could be a you know, decent goal lineback going forward,

834
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 1: so I think he could possibly you know, score eight

835
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 1: to ten touchdowns on the ground. So there are some

836
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 1: things to like that he could improve on this year

837
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: while maintaining some of thesees we saw last year. So well,

838
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 1: there are some concerns. I still think he's just on

839
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 1: that brink of a top ten back. So in certain situations,

840
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 1: if I miss out on a Tier one or two

841
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 1: running back, you can get him in round three. I

842
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: think it does make sense.

843
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I look at him compared to a guy

844
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 2: like Najie Harris. When I see Najie Harris getting his

845
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 2: work would cut into Whereas Stevens is another one of

846
00:40:57,560 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 2: those guys that you know he could have like that

847
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 2: Jacob season where he just doesn't come off the field

848
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 2: this year very much because there's not much behind him.

849
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think he has a better floor steiling

850
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 2: combo than a guy like Nagi in this Patriots offense,

851
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 2: which also should just be I mean, I still think

852
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 2: there's concerns on your line and whatnot, but should be

853
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 2: better than last year under Matt Patricia and Joe Judge

854
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 2: or whatever that was. Yeah, whatever that was, and then

855
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:30,399
Speaker 2: brisall rounds out the top twelve another guy I'm concerned about.

856
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 2: I mean, how healthy do you expect him to be

857
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 2: in week one? How long do you expect him to

858
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: take to ramp it up?

859
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 1: I mean, it sounds like he's going to be healthier

860
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: than we thought like a month ago, because he had

861
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 1: a just a pretty clean ACL tear. That's it. Whereas

862
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: you know someone like Javonte Willilliams is dealing with all

863
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 1: these other issues surrounding the torn ACL, So I think

864
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,359
Speaker 1: Bristol sounds like he might be close to one hundred

865
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 1: percent by week one. You know, this could also turn

866
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 1: into JK. Dobbins of last year, where you know they

867
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: ease him in the first you know, a few weeks,

868
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 1: which was fine, I guess for JK. Dobbins because you're

869
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 1: drafting him, you know, outside of the top twenty. But Brisaw,

870
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: you're drafting inside of the top twelve, so you kind

871
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:15,879
Speaker 1: of need even to be healthy out of the gate.

872
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 1: So I wouldn't go all in on him, but I

873
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: think there are, you know, some spots you got to

874
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 1: take him because you know, the easiest time I guess

875
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: to survive, you know, running back maybe not being one

876
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: hundred percent would be the first few weeks, you know,

877
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: especially in a redraft league. That's why you know, if

878
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 1: I'm drafting Breese Hall, I usually pair him up with

879
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: a guy like Jamal Williams who could see an early

880
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 1: season spike, with Alvin Kamara potentially suspended, or even smaj

881
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 1: ap Ryan with Javonte maybe not even playing the first

882
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 1: few games, So there are ways to kind of work

883
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: around Resol's injury, but I think he does have top

884
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: five upside in this offense. And one of the things

885
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: I was looking at was just his receiving usage. Last year,

886
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: he averaged two point seven receptions per game. Only seventy

887
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: six percent of his targets were catchable, which is the

888
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 1: third lowest out of seventy backs last year. If you

889
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: look like three of the top ten roll Jets players,

890
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 1: Tay Johnson had the lowest, Michael Carter's fifteen lowest, so

891
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: it might have had something to do with their quarterback

892
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 1: situation last year. So having a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers

893
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: will help significantly in that area. So based on you know,

894
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 1: Hall's eight out of five point three, which is pretty

895
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: high for running back, just having an average QB, he

896
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: would be averaging closer to three point four receptions per game,

897
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: which is an average quarterback. So Aaron Rodgers could add

898
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: plus you know, plus point seven receptions game, if not more,

899
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 1: just with more accurate passes out of the out of

900
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: the backfield. So I think Haul's upside is massive with

901
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 1: Rogers there, so I think that I wouldn't go all

902
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 1: in on him at RB twelve, but you have to

903
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 1: mix him in because he does have so much upside.

904
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 1: And if you do take him, you have to get creative,

905
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,360
Speaker 1: like I said, and take some backs late on that

906
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 1: will peak likely and you know, the first couple of

907
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 1: weeks to kind of make up for Bristol maybe getting

908
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: easy in.

909
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm I don't have Bristol's the top twelve back.

910
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 2: I think I think there's still too many questions marks.

911
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 2: I mean, for one, this team, the Jets are one

912
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 2: of the favorites to land Dalvin Cook. You know, if

913
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 2: I know, they're not as high as the Dolphins, but

914
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: there's there's definitely an interest I think there. Uh we

915
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 2: have a quote from the GM Joe Douglas saying we

916
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 2: got to protect him from himself. Uh So, I just

917
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 2: think he's gonna I don't think he's gonna necessarily see

918
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 2: the usage we want, or the usage of a top

919
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 2: twelve running back for the entire season. And you know,

920
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: twenty one percent of his total yards did come on

921
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 2: two touches last year, so you know, we who knows

922
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 2: how the a cl and it was in Week seven.

923
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 3: Who knows how that kind of affects him this year?

924
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 2: He is young, and he's very talented, but I would

925
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 2: I think there's a significant downside to taking him in

926
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: the in the top twelve between you know, this could

927
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: turn into a committee they could, uh, you know, he

928
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: could He's an injury risk, you know.

929
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 3: I just and the on line was not very good

930
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 3: last year. It was dead last and adjusted vineyards. Now.

931
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 2: I think it'll be healthier and better this year than that,

932
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:12,360
Speaker 2: but I still see a lot of downside risk. And

933
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 2: you know, for like, I think there's other guy young

934
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,239
Speaker 2: guys like who will talk about in the next pod,

935
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 2: but like ETN and Walker, you know, guys who have

936
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 2: similar concerns are about the workload, but health doesn't really

937
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 2: mixed in with those concerns. So that that's why I

938
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,479
Speaker 2: prefer a bunch of other guys over over Breesehall because

939
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: I think, you know, there's health factors kind of mixed

940
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 2: in with the uncertainty workload uncertainty.

941
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that makes a ton of sense, just

942
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:43,359
Speaker 1: because he's going early enough where the flour does come

943
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 1: into play. You don't want to take a guy RB

944
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 1: twelve and then you know he doesn't play that much,

945
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 1: So that makes sense. But if Dalvin Cook signs with

946
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: the Dolphins and Breesehall is still being drafted RB twelve,

947
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:56,439
Speaker 1: you'd be more interested.

948
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 3: In them, No, I think I would have to.

949
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 2: I still I still feel better about like etn uh

950
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 2: pretty much Walker, even a guy like Joe Mixon.

951
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think there's the.

952
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 2: Workloads of those guys because you know, we're kind of

953
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 2: depending on Briest to be very efficient too.

954
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 3: That's why we love the upside.

955
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 2: You know, kind of like a Pollard kind of guy,

956
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 2: and you know that's all well and good, but you know,

957
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 2: if he's if there's injury risk at you know where

958
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 2: he's going, I could just get a guy that doesn't

959
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,800
Speaker 2: have injury risk that projects for a similar amount of

960
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 2: yards and touchdown.

961
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, especially for best ball, because I know you

962
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: have obviously you know you don't want to be missing

963
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: games there. I think this is maybe more for redraft,

964
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,320
Speaker 1: where the most valuable time for a back would be

965
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 1: fancy playoffs. Like I'm comfortable knowing I can make the

966
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: fancy playoffs, so I'm more willing to take him here

967
00:46:48,239 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: in redraft, I would say, because he'll likely be one

968
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 1: hundred percent, I would say by that time, so I'm

969
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 1: more interested in that upside. But certainly Bestball, like you're saying,

970
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: you know, mixing eats again more likely to give you

971
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: seventeen quality games than briefs Hall. So I think I'm

972
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: more likely to take him and redraft than best Ball.

973
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:09,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, and again just the guy.

974
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: We have to monitor and see how the house is

975
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 2: actually doing as we had toward the season. But yeah,

976
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 2: that's going to wrap it up for our running Back

977
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 2: one pod here on the Fantasy Flex. If you want

978
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 2: to hear us talking break it down each of the

979
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:27,760
Speaker 2: division's team by team with all the fantasy relevant players.

980
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 3: All of those episodes are out.

981
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:31,280
Speaker 2: You can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore ods Maker,

982
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 2: met at Chris Raybond and rete those same handles on

983
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app.

984
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 3: And so next time, let's get thish money.

985
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:47,919
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

986
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

987
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

988
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:54,920
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