1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg My 5 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: Book of the Summer. His name is Robin Roger. If 6 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:33,920 Speaker 1: you do not know him, he is a Nodding acquaintance 7 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: with India as a former RBI governor, but also a 8 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: dynamo at the University of Chicago. And I can't say 9 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: enough about the Third Pillar. It's March and it's already 10 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 1: my book of the summer. Rockgoo, congratulations on the third Pillar. 11 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: And throughout your book on community as a discussion of education, 12 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: seamlessly throughout four hundred pages. Let me cut to the chase. 13 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: Your Chicago is so lead. These parents out on the 14 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,960 Speaker 1: West Coast weren't even trying to get their kids and 15 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,200 Speaker 1: the professor Roger and Chicago. They were looking at other 16 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: lower schools like that one in Cambridge in Massachusetts as well. 17 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 1: Ruggle just simply your thoughts on the desperation to buy 18 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: academics in America. Well, this is very worrisome, right because 19 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 1: on the one hand, we already have isquing of opportunities. 20 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 1: You have to go to the elite schools to get 21 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 1: those elite jobs and and then you get you know, zillions, 22 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: But for most of us out there, it's very hard 23 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: to even take the first step. And then you read 24 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 1: that it's not just about legacies, it's not just about 25 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: preparation schools, which helps you prepare your applications, but it's 26 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: about buying your way in illegally through corruption. That that 27 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: that's really a blow to the system and we need 28 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: to clean this up as quickly as possible. It's not 29 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: happening you for us. Are you had the most interesting 30 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: childhood in India. I won't go into it all, but 31 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 1: like many others, you traveled around the world with your 32 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: father and diplomacy and enforcement for India as well, and 33 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 1: you are acculiar ware of the path for you through 34 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,919 Speaker 1: university in India and then onto your acclaimed world excellence. 35 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: Is the place those students took. Is it a place 36 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: from someone in the middle class or is it a 37 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 1: place of someone who just went below that level of 38 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 1: whatever school and they just eaked out not going to 39 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: that fancy school. Well, I think it is a concern 40 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 1: that so many people don't get a chance to really 41 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: get into these school schools. First, you need a level 42 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: of ambition in some of these schools outside the big cities, 43 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: which tells you really the way to progress is to 44 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: go to these high these ivy League schools, and from 45 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 1: there get those wonderful jobs. Many students don't even have 46 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 1: the ambition because they don't have access to good college 47 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: counselors who tell them that's out there waiting for you. 48 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: There are lots of scholarships, please do apply. And even 49 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,519 Speaker 1: if they they do, hear that the next step of 50 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 1: doing the college tests, of writing the good applications, of 51 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: getting past those hurdles is very difficult. So when you 52 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 1: hear that there are separate tracks here, I think it 53 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 1: creates a whole lot of new anxiety over and above 54 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: what we already have. Professor, Does this feed populism? Do 55 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: these kind of scandals the idea that actually the elite 56 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: and the rich and get whatever they want will lead 57 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: to people voting to more extreme parties, of course, because 58 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 1: I think the sense that the system is cued, even 59 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: before you add on corruption to it, is already there 60 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: that the elite look after themselves. I call it the UH. 61 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: We have a meritocracy, but it's a hereditary meritocracy. Only 62 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: the children of the successful get a chance at being 63 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 1: successful because of the extreme importance of a really good education. 64 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: So given that, when you add on to that corruption 65 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: and after all, what is populism, it's ultimately the corruption 66 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: of the elite. They're not working for us, they're working 67 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: for themselves. It leads to a significant amount of distrust 68 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: in the system. So my sense is this is one 69 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 1: of those scandals which is which has to be cleaned 70 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: up very very quickly. Professor, again, congratulations on your book, 71 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: which is fantastic, which is both tom and ized book 72 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,119 Speaker 1: of the year. When you look actually at central banks, 73 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: and you said this in the past that you don't 74 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,760 Speaker 1: believe central banks should do any more, Quei if there 75 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: was a downturn around the corner, what do you think 76 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: they should do instead? Well, certainly the the US Central Bank, 77 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: the FED, and UH and and China still have some 78 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 1: room to cut interest rates. I think part of the 79 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 1: normalization was in a sense to create some of that buffer. 80 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: Of course, the problem with both the CB and the 81 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,919 Speaker 1: Bank of Japan, is they already into negative interest rates. 82 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: As far as Quee goes, They've pretty much done what 83 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: they could and whatever modest effect is that it has had, 84 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 1: it's pretty much out there. There's very little more ammunition 85 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 1: in the central bank tank, and so my guess is 86 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 1: we have to look for other instruments in those countries. 87 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: I mean, Professor, this is extraordinary. If you look at 88 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 1: a college like Carleton College in Minnesota, this is an 89 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: acclaim liberal arts institution of the Midwest, just like you're 90 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: in Chicago. Brian Levitt joins us in the early morning 91 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: down here Oppenheimer Severia investment strategies. Brian, let's start that 92 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 1: which treasuries, Yeldner, it's an nineteen loves. What's driving things, 93 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 1: what's driving the lower rates is just to slow down 94 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: in global economic activity. Um, you know this was sort 95 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 1: of we preordain, We sort of expected this. I mean, 96 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 1: you had a lot of stimulus last year, drove rates 97 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: to three five, FED raised rates a couple of times, 98 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: and that starts to slow down economic activity. You see 99 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: rates back down. We've been in the low for long 100 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: camp for a while now. We believe interest rates are 101 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: going to remain low. For a very long period of time. 102 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: That's what happens in a world where there were just 103 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 1: growth stars. So so does equities dovetail in the lower 104 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 1: rates or does a dovetail into slow g d P, 105 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: which means lousy earnings. So earnings are likely to be 106 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: good enough. UM growth is likely to be good enough 107 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: to support corporate earnings. But we're still in an environment 108 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: where rates are so low that stocks are very cheap 109 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: to bonds, and I expect that with modest earnings growth, 110 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 1: some multiple expansion equity market should continue to do. This 111 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 1: is really important, fo Brian, you and I've done this before. 112 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: Let's walk to it again. When a process stocks are 113 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: cheap to bonds, what does that mean on dividend versus 114 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: yield on PE multiple? I mean take that right back 115 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: to Lewis Ruth Kaiser one oh one. I think an 116 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 1: easy way to do it is to just flip the 117 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 1: price earnings ratio over and look at the earnings. He 118 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: has a price to earnings ratio of ten using a 119 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: round number ten divided by one. Right, flip it one 120 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: divided by ten compared to a two, and so one 121 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 1: divided by ten compared to a two and a half 122 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: percent treasury rate and you're gonna you're gonna look pretty attractive. 123 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: So the SMP earnings gilts probably close to around five 124 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 1: percent compared to two six to seven on treasuries. Was 125 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: that too much math now thought that was? That was 126 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: a great stop. Let's let Tom enjoy his food. I 127 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: think there's something that front strates a lot of people 128 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: on Wall straights when people turn around and say, the 129 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,679 Speaker 1: bond market is telling me something. Is there a sinister 130 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: message in the bond market the equity market doesn't know about. 131 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:54,840 Speaker 1: Can we just clear that up right now? Well, the 132 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: bond market is telling you that we're going back to 133 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: an environment of very modest growth but modest inflation, and 134 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,000 Speaker 1: we see that in the inflation numbers, and paradoxically, that's 135 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,640 Speaker 1: actually in a better environment for equity. Jonathan. If you 136 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: remember last year, very good growth, but what we would 137 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: call bad policy, federal reserve raising interest rates, the administration 138 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: fighting a trade war. This year, what the market is 139 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: focused on is slower growth, but better policy. The federal 140 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: reserve is backed off, We're hoping to get some clarity 141 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: on trade, and the market is enthused by that. This 142 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: is a theme for Oppenheimer coming into I've heard it 143 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 1: from you, I've heard it from Christian and multiple times, 144 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 1: and I've had it now for several months. What I 145 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 1: haven't seen yet is the better policy for the markets 146 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 1: at least work for the economy. I haven't seen the 147 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 1: bottoming bottom AUP process come through in China in a 148 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 1: clear weight right yet. Do you see it? Well, you're 149 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: starting to see stabilization in Chinese growth, so you're starting 150 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: to see some credit growth. You have a purchasing manager's 151 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: index that's hovering around forty nine and a half, so 152 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: we're getting closer to that expansion territory perhaps of recent 153 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 1: turn and industrial production. So it looks like we're getting 154 00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,720 Speaker 1: to stabilization and Chinese growth back to my trend level. 155 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 1: But remember policy moves take some time to work through 156 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: the economy, so we would expect to see that second half. 157 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,199 Speaker 1: This is why, quite frankly, the US is slowing. We 158 00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: raised rates and that's working its way through the system. 159 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: When John trades, it's like a three day trade as 160 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: a long term trade, and I would suggest here Lappenheimer funds, 161 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 1: you know a long term trade is like five years 162 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: or even ten years. In two months we're up eleven 163 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: point four s. How do you Christian and the rest 164 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: of your team, how do you answer the question? Wait 165 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: a minute, I'm up double digit go to cash? Well, look, 166 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: first of all, we had a very difficult fall in winter, 167 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 1: so we've been recovering ground from what was a pretty 168 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: nasty correction. You're gonna take to do your compare and 169 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 1: contress well, right, And the reality is, I mean, investors 170 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: can try and trade, they can try to move into cash, 171 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 1: but they've got to make multiple decisions, right, They've got 172 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 1: to know when to get into cash. They got to 173 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: know when to get out of cash. The realities, I 174 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 1: believe we're in a secular bowl market. I've I've been 175 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 1: told you get three secular bull markets in your life. 176 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: The first one I was too young, the next one 177 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: I'm likely to be. I'm just saying we've got a 178 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 1: live audience here, and everyone's face is just We're like, 179 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:17,119 Speaker 1: what is he talking about? It's sort of like imus, 180 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,959 Speaker 1: you know, it's like it's a hotel full of people 181 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: here right now. It's a beautiful thing. It's it's just 182 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: I'm happy to have it. Car. Does that make me Bernard? Yes? 183 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 1: So so anyway, um, this is the one. This is 184 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: the middle secular bull market in my life, at least 185 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: as I view it. And you know, secular bull markets 186 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: are ultimately going to end with either extreme excess in 187 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:42,439 Speaker 1: the system, valuations that are incredibly excessive, or a policy mistake, 188 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: and none of those seem apparent. Let's talk about your 189 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: regional bus right now. What would it be? Well, I 190 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: would favor in the United States, I would favor true growth. 191 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: I'm favoring Cleveland this morning. Can we can we wait? 192 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: Can we wait? Region? Because let's just wait. We've got 193 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,440 Speaker 1: a bit of time later today this Can I just 194 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: say that my eleven year old daughter that Mr what's 195 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: his name? Beckham Beckham jam Jr. Not the soccer player 196 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: football moved from Giants to Brown's. Everyone is shocked, continued 197 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: his daughter devastated. But Jabrill Peppers, Michigan guy coming in 198 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: New York. So she gonna change her Giants tattoo to 199 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 1: a Brown's tattoo. She did ask for Beckham Brown's jersey 200 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: for a birthday. What did the Giants get in return? 201 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: What did they get? Mr? Mannigan returned? So they get 202 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 1: the number seventeen pick in this draft, The number pick 203 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: in this draft and Jabrill Peppers, the safety who came 204 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 1: out of Michigan Patterson Catholic High School. But it's interesting, 205 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 1: and is it really would you suggest that, folks, this 206 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 1: really goes to all the sports, including John we'll talk 207 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: about Juventus, Juve, Juventus, we'll talk about there when yesterday. 208 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: But Brian, it goes to the management trying to call 209 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: a locker room and they think they're gonna do that 210 00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 1: by moving this gifted wide receiver. Well, I suspect that's 211 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 1: that's what they're thinking. Um, it's also a check on 212 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: the surveillance locker room. I suppose it's a team that 213 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: thinks they need to rebuild, and so that's this is 214 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: talking about Blimberg surveillance giants. I'm just trying to work 215 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 1: that we talk about a real sport. Can we talk 216 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: about Uventus a real sport. Christian Christiano Ronaldo needs to 217 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: score three goals. That's exactly what he does. Juventus wins. 218 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 1: They can to score three goals and win three nil. 219 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: Ronaldo scores all three stunning comeback over in Turin in Italy. 220 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:40,719 Speaker 1: The stock this morning Juventus up sixteen percent, just up 221 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 1: sixteen percent, just off that win. And the market can 222 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: move off the back of it the equivalent of two 223 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: times what the club paid for him. Two times what 224 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 1: the club paid for him, We're up about two d 225 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: forty million euros in market cap on the day. Does 226 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: Manchester City have the same dynamics with a year they're 227 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: having so Manchester City and events, I think probably the 228 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: vor it's for the for the tournament. Now an outside 229 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: Barcelona like to Cleveland Browns. What can I tell you 230 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: my regional view? Now? Can you seconds? Thirty seconds? Week? 231 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: We're very favorable on the emerging markets. Last year was 232 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: the US above trend, China below, China stabilizing US slowing 233 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: policy accommodative around the world. That should be supportive for Nocoba. 234 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: This is really important. We'll come back and talk about 235 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: the international expertise of Oppenheimer Funds and Brian Levitt's view 236 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: on emerging markets as well. It is a joy to 237 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 1: be at Oppenheimer Funds with our expertise in the international investment. 238 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 1: Of course, those of us have a certain vintage. Remember 239 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: Oppenheimer Funds from a few years ago with definitive equity 240 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: and particularly growth equity at work as well and hosting 241 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: is today Christian MoManI, head of the shop here. Wonderful 242 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: day have you here, and you get surveillance yeoman's duty today. 243 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,880 Speaker 1: We're gonna give that to Francis like wa freezing on 244 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: the green at Westminster. I think for our audience we 245 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: sort of perceive New York to Istanbul, which is not 246 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: quite as far as New York to Buenos series. You 247 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: just flew in from Argentina and you had a brilliant insight. 248 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: Christians always their bankrupt pastos at forty two and the 249 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: hotels are packed. How can that be? Well? So, I 250 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: think that's very interesting. That is they have a crisis, 251 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: and it was a crisis created by the Machrie government 252 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: by depending too much to fund the fiscal deficit from 253 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: external sources. Beyond that, I think there is the draw 254 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: down in the economy is relatively modest. If Makri can 255 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: win the win the election, and there's decent chance for 256 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: that despite the economic debacco, he can implement lots of 257 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: structural changes. The most in instinct thing that I observed 258 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: there is Argentina uses Venezuela more than anybody else. I 259 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: think that is one of the REASONSOS know what they're 260 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: saying is well, if Christina comes back, Kush Nurse come back, 261 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: then we will be another Venezuela as well. So that 262 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: is a that is a good election platform. Bottom line is, 263 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 1: you know the country is going through an adjustment. They 264 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: are in a sort of a recession. But I don't 265 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 1: think the recession is as deep as people suspect. Is 266 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 1: there opportunity there for traditional investors or is it the 267 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: prevailance a fancy alternative fund people that know more than 268 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 1: I do. No. I think the companies are dirt cheap. 269 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: If we've met an agricum company and they generated almost 270 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: ninety million dollars in free cash flow in dollar terms, 271 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 1: because they exports its dollars trading at seven hundred seven 272 00:15:56,680 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: hundred seventy million dollars in market cap, that's a ashaan 273 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: cash yield, which is significantly, significantly cheaper than anywhere else 274 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: in the world. So how do you think about Latin 275 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 1: American in general? I mean, do you really need to 276 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: break it down country by country, company by company, or 277 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: do you have a macro view of Latin America that 278 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: you need to be longer or unexposed. I think the 279 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 1: thing in Latin America is important, but the larger context 280 00:16:21,760 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: is emerging markets. Valuations in emerging markets, as Argentina and 281 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: other places show valuations and emerging markets are very cheap 282 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 1: relative to the developed work, especially the US, and that's 283 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: the primary reason why we want to be in in 284 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: emerging markets. And as as the company that I was 285 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 1: talking about, it's really not about Argentina as much as 286 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: it is about a dollar exporter in Argentina who has 287 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: significant cost advantages. So emerging market investing for US has 288 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: always been about companies rather than geographies or countries. How 289 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: about also in the context of your emerging mark CA thesis, 290 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: as you just stated, how concern are you bout just 291 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: slowing global economy something specifically China, and then also you 292 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 1: know Europe as well, Um, how is that impacting kind 293 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 1: of your view of emerging markets. Well, so global economy 294 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: is slowing down for sure, I mean US is slowing down, 295 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 1: China will slow down, Europe has definitely slowed down. Having 296 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: said that, the slowdown is not catastrophic, So China is 297 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 1: not going to go to four percent, It's gonna be 298 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 1: still be higher than six percent, and Europe hopefully stabilizes 299 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: around you know, for the whole year around one percent 300 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: US probably too. So the global economy is slowing down, 301 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 1: but it is not slowing down catastrophically. Policy, on the 302 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,399 Speaker 1: other hand, is going to be meaningfully more supportive in 303 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,160 Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen than it had it was in two 304 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 1: thousand and eighteen, and that's what gets the markets higher 305 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 1: very quickly. My idea of international investment used to be 306 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: to buy a case of Molson Golden Nail out of Canada. 307 00:17:57,960 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 1: It's changed a little bit. Christian say the least, do 308 00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: you just go into e M now and let you 309 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: guys allocate, or you have to be supple and go 310 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: in and out. So you missed two thousand eighteen and 311 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: try to get two thou well. So I think if 312 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: you are a long term investor and you're looking for 313 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 1: growth in your portfolio for the next two or three decades, 314 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 1: which is a lot of people need, the real growth 315 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 1: in the world is only going to come from emerging market. 316 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: You just have to lean and say, you know, you'll 317 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: have the five year period that we have had over 318 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: the last five years, it's been a very subpar, but 319 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: that's not the context. The context is you want to 320 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 1: be in this market for the long term growth we're 321 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,959 Speaker 1: gonna come back. He's got so many frequent flyer miles 322 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 1: on the surveillance credit card that we're gonna bring Christian 323 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:50,080 Speaker 1: money back just in fluent from Buenos Aires. That doesn't 324 00:18:51,080 --> 00:19:07,399 Speaker 1: doesn't failed at that, you know, House Democrats. Uh, Now 325 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: they're obviously back in control of the House, and they're 326 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: actually taking another stab at legislation protecting young undocumented immigrants, 327 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 1: while at the same time expending those protections to immigrants 328 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: that are covered by other programs. To help us kind 329 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 1: of breakdown this story, we're joined by Laura Francis, Laura's 330 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:28,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Law senior legal editor. Laura, thanks so much for 331 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: joining us. Um What is the status of this latest 332 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 1: iteration of immigration legislation. So it was just introduced yesterday, 333 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: there was a lot of fanfare by the Democrats, so 334 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: we'll have to see kind of where it's going to 335 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 1: go from here. I would imagine that with the Democrats 336 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 1: and control of the House, they're really going to make 337 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: a push to get this bill through committee and onto 338 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,919 Speaker 1: the House floor. Is there any Republican support either in 339 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 1: the House or the Senate for this There has not 340 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,400 Speaker 1: been vocalized publican support. I think there are some Republicans 341 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 1: who are willing to work with the Democrats to expand 342 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,399 Speaker 1: this bill and kind of add some provisions that maybe 343 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 1: include border security, interior enforcement, that kind of thing. They're 344 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: not willing to throw it out, but I don't think 345 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,399 Speaker 1: they want to see it pass in its current form. 346 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 1: But but okay, I get that. But essentially anything the 347 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: House proposes is dead on a rival, right, I mean, 348 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: this is the definition of grid luck. It can be 349 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: especially with immigration. Any immigration bill introduced by either party 350 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:39,679 Speaker 1: and either side of Congress, it faces an uphill battle. 351 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: So how do you handle that every day? Do you 352 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 1: medicate every morning before you go into the land of 353 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 1: grid luck? I can't speak from members of Congress, UM, 354 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 1: it's it's a perpetual challenge with any immigration legislation UM, 355 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 1: because immigration bills have not moved in Congress in so 356 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: many years. Anything that gets introduced is mired in all 357 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:09,439 Speaker 1: these complicated factors. Is the bill going to be too small? 358 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,919 Speaker 1: Is the bill going to be too big? And it 359 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 1: kind of puts everyone at a standstill until something finally 360 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 1: kind of breaks that political logjam. So so, Laura, is 361 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,479 Speaker 1: is there some middle road here where we could uh 362 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 1: or the Congress kid bringing some you know, some money, uh, 363 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 1: some language about border security, about a wall or just 364 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: border security broadly defined, to help push this legislation through. 365 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 1: Is there any middle ground there? I think there could 366 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 1: be this time around. In past congresses, Republicans have insisted 367 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 1: on we need enforcement first before we provide any kind 368 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: of legalization to undocumented immigrants. This time there they change 369 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 1: your tune a little bit where they're saying, we still 370 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 1: need that enforcement, but we are willing to attach it 371 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: to legalization. So I think that may be a ground 372 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: for them to work together on, not this exact bill, 373 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,200 Speaker 1: but maybe using this as a jumping point to something 374 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: more comprehensive. To a grizzled pro like you. When you 375 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 1: see a new number eight point six jillion dollars to 376 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: build another X feed of wall, translate that for the 377 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: jaded on Capitol Hill, what does that actually mean? So, 378 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 1: what what you're seeing is the president's budget proposal, and 379 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,159 Speaker 1: that's really just kind of his wish list for what 380 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 1: he wants to see happen. It's very rare that Congress 381 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 1: gives him anything that close to what he's asking for, 382 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: and especially with the wall, which has already been the 383 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: subject of so much contention. Um, it's it's highly unlikely 384 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 1: that that's actually going to pass through Congress. Laura Francis, 385 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciate the budget wish list 386 00:22:50,480 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: conversation in Washington. Paul Swunian, time king with Oppenheimer Funds. 387 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:12,400 Speaker 1: We do this once a year and it is spectacular. 388 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 1: We thank them for their hospitality and a good food. 389 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: To say the least. I'm a little shaky right now, Paul, 390 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,120 Speaker 1: after the avocado toast, I mean, after the second tray 391 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 1: of it. I think this is the interview of the 392 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: day for about all this investment stuff. Christina Boris with 393 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 1: this head of client research at Oppenheimer Funds, which means 394 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: know your client, which is actually go out and talk 395 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: to people about their fears. Now, we could rip up 396 00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: the script and spend the entire uh interview talking about 397 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: how to get into college. But that'll be a theme 398 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 1: maybe for another time with you. I'm sure people walking 399 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,240 Speaker 1: to go I gotta get my kid into slippery rocket? 400 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: What do I do? But forget about that. What's the 401 00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 1: biggest fear right now of high net worth people? Okay, fear, um, 402 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 1: I would say, just uncertainty. About the current political environment. 403 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 1: That's something we actually asked about last year. And yes, 404 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,439 Speaker 1: what about the idea of I've got you mean the 405 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,359 Speaker 1: masks says I've got to put this amount of money 406 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: on because I mean, Paul's too young to remember this, 407 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: But there's the idea of if I don't make I 408 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 1: can't get it forward and the hurdle rates come down 409 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 1: and return over the years. Is there a panic among 410 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: the people you interview in sight, a true panic that 411 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,040 Speaker 1: that we're in an area where we've got to put 412 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: aside a lot more money than we ever thought we 413 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: had to. Well not. In terms of the latest survey results, 414 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,040 Speaker 1: which we just wrapped up last month. UM, what we 415 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: found is that high net worth investors are really focused 416 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,959 Speaker 1: on the long term. Even in the week of the 417 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: recent market volatility in the back half of many investors 418 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 1: said they actually didn't do anything. They didn't make any 419 00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 1: changes to their investment portfolios. They stay, they kept calm 420 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 1: and carried on. That seems to be the Yeah, I 421 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,880 Speaker 1: was whipping a portfolio trying to catch the last So 422 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's interesting. What we've heard from UM 423 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,160 Speaker 1: a lot of asset managers is that their clients, are 424 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,840 Speaker 1: you know, asking more about E s G and which 425 00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: is environmental sustainability and governance? I guess and those are 426 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 1: becoming more important issues. Is that we find in your 427 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 1: survey work as well. Yes, absolutely, we do ask that 428 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: in the survey, and we do see that E s 429 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: G investing is on the rise with high net worth 430 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:33,400 Speaker 1: investors UM. As of this latest survey, almost of those 431 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,360 Speaker 1: who are invested in sustainable and E s G UM, 432 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: almost half of their portfolio is made up of those 433 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: types of investments. And what we're also seeing is that 434 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 1: there's an opportunity for advisors to really help their clients 435 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: design their portfolios around the causes that are near and 436 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 1: dear to. Okay, fine, I mean I I get the 437 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,200 Speaker 1: immediacy of the causes in E s G. What percentage 438 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,920 Speaker 1: of stocks are precluded from E s G. If I 439 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: if I walk in and say I want to do 440 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:02,879 Speaker 1: E s G with OT, but I'm er funds or 441 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 1: any other major institutional house, what percent of the market 442 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,520 Speaker 1: am I walking away from by doing E s G. 443 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,400 Speaker 1: I'm not really an expert on that. I'm not sure 444 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: you could pretend to be it all the time. We 445 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: do it all the time. If you don't know the answers, 446 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,399 Speaker 1: just bluff your way through. It'll be great. Okay, you 447 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,159 Speaker 1: don't you don't know, okay the answers, Paul, I'm going 448 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: to take a reach here. Philip Morris isn't on the 449 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,359 Speaker 1: exactly exactly. I'm a good stray with that anyway. So 450 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 1: but when I go into when I think about a 451 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: financial advisor, you know, and I'm selecting a financial advisor, 452 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,440 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, all I really care 453 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: about is performance? UM is that changing? Not really for 454 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,119 Speaker 1: the high net worth investor? We ask that. So we 455 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 1: ask you know, when you're looking to work with an advisor, 456 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,160 Speaker 1: what are the top qualities that you're seeking? And by 457 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 1: far and away, UM good absolute performance, absolute performance and 458 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 1: working with an advisor who really understands their long term goals, 459 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 1: meaning like what they ultimately we want to achieve with 460 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: their wealth and their money are the top two things 461 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 1: that investors are looking for. And that hasn't changed here 462 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 1: over year. What does give us an example of E 463 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: S G investment? I mean I think of like somebody 464 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: comes in and says, I don't want any dairy products, 465 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 1: I only want almond milk. Let's go right, that's not 466 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 1: what it is, right, right, right. So we in the survey, 467 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 1: you know, we ask first of all, are you UM 468 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 1: investing in E s G type investments? And if they 469 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: say yes, then we give them a whole list of 470 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: different categories like clean energy, clean technology, gender equity, UM 471 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 1: and you know, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and we asked them to 472 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:39,320 Speaker 1: select which categories subcategories they're invested in, and we also 473 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: ask them which ones they're interested in, so that we 474 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 1: can kind of get a read on maybe future investment 475 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 1: in different areas. It's interesting E s G you know, 476 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: just you know, on the Bloomberg terminal, there's more and 477 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 1: more E s G data being put on the Bloomberg terminal, 478 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: more and more because our Bloomberg customers are asking for there, 479 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,679 Speaker 1: they're they're demanding it. So that's kind of reflective of 480 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 1: what you're seeing. Is there a sense of how E 481 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 1: s G. If I'm I don't know, if I'm do 482 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 1: I go in and say I'm overweight s G or 483 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: if I just want to representative percentage of my portfolio 484 00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 1: and s G type investments, how's the performance of those 485 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 1: types of investments you get? What's the Appenheimer data show UM. Well, 486 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 1: the e t F that we the E s G 487 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 1: E t F that we have UM. The way we 488 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: look at it is we want to invest in companies 489 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,360 Speaker 1: that have exceptional and UM environmental, social and governance standards 490 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: UM and our E t F fund actually UM invest 491 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 1: in companies that have superior scores as described or defined 492 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 1: by sustain analytics. So that's one way that we look 493 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 1: at it. You also deal with I would guess something. 494 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 1: You get to these high net worth families and there's 495 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: personal issues. I mean, the advisors have to deal with 496 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 1: all of that stuff when in addition to just putting 497 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 1: up good performance. Yes, well, we do ask about money 498 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 1: related conflicts in the family, just trying to understand, like 499 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 1: what are the biggest conflicts that families are dealing with 500 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: around money and to advisors. So it's like a high 501 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: net worth question, would we do I need the third 502 00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: lacrosse stick? Is that like part Well, what we found 503 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,840 Speaker 1: this year is that discretionary spending has bubbled up to 504 00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: the top. Is the top money related conflicts? Break? This 505 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 1: is too important? So how do you respond to the 506 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: the afterthought that says I need a third lacrosse tack. 507 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: What do you say a Appenheimer, Well, I mean it's difficult. 508 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: I guess it just depends on how, um, you know, 509 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: how the family is feeling, you know, especially with you know, 510 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: if you're seeing losses in your investment portfolio and you's 511 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 1: learned about the economy, maybe you know, I think investors 512 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: might be thinking about pulling back a little bit on spending. 513 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: You know. Les dot Com was laughing at me as 514 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: I bought the next Brian I think it was under 515 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,120 Speaker 1: what's it called from Baltimore under Armour? Under Armour brought 516 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 1: an under Armour lacrosse stick in yellow. There you go. 517 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: Yellow was a key thing and he probably did you 518 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,800 Speaker 1: bite on Amazon have delivered an hour. You had to 519 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: go to a specialist like cross Place so that you 520 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 1: can kill me on the shipp Okay, that's the kind 521 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 1: of thing you do. This has been wonderful Christina Boors, 522 00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: thank you so much, greatly appreciate it with really important research. 523 00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,880 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 524 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:20,280 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 525 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. Before 526 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.