1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,840 Speaker 1: US Treasury Secretary Jenny Allen. She joins Bloomberg News in Washington, 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: d C. For a conversation around the economy, moderated by 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:10,320 Speaker 1: our Washington Bureau Chief Peggy Collins. 4 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 2: I think we'll start off with the economic data that 5 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: came out this morning, third quarter GDP showing a robust 6 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 2: four point nine percent growth rate a pace in the 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 2: third quarter. When you look at those figures, do you 8 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: think we've likely avoided a recession or do you think 9 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: it's too good to be true because inflation is still 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 2: so high. 11 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 3: Well, it's a good, strong number, and it shows an 12 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 3: economy that's doing very well. Let's remember it is just 13 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:44,279 Speaker 3: one quarter's number, and I'm not expecting a growth at 14 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 3: that pace to continue. But we do have good, solid growth. 15 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 3: You know, probably the year will come in close to 16 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 3: two and a half. I wouldn't be surprised if we 17 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 3: see that we have solid job creation, a low unemployment rate, 18 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 3: increased engagement in the labor force. Labor force participation is strong, 19 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: more people want to work, and inflation's coming down, and 20 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 3: you don't really see any sign of recession here. 21 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 4: I have to say I've been. 22 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 3: Saying for a long time that I believed there was 23 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 3: a path to bring inflation down in the context of 24 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 3: a strong labor market. Frankly, it's only it's about a 25 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: year ago since I believe a Bloomberg model predicted that 26 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 3: by October of twenty twenty three. Now, namely that you 27 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: saw at the odds of recession at one hundred percent, 28 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 3: I don't think we have that. You know, what we 29 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 3: have looks like is soft landing with very good outcomes 30 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 3: through the US economy. 31 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 4: So I think there's a lot to be pleased about. 32 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 3: And you see good strong consumers spending, consumers still have 33 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 3: substantial wealth, it's substantially since the pandemic. 34 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 4: I think it's. 35 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:15,079 Speaker 3: Supporting good, strong spending and the economy is doing well, 36 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 3: and I think US growth is making a contribution to 37 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 3: stronger global outcomes as well. 38 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 2: So you just pointed to a number of things that 39 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 2: are positive about the US economy. But we've done a 40 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 2: lot of reporting in recent months that here at Bloomberg, 41 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,880 Speaker 2: who sent reporters out all across the country, and what 42 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,119 Speaker 2: we're hearing from people on the ground is that when 43 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:38,399 Speaker 2: you ask them about their personal finances, they feel pretty good. 44 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: For a lot of the reasons you just mentioned the 45 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: labor market, their ability as consumers to spend, But when 46 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 2: you ask them about the direction of the US economy, 47 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 2: the sentiment is much more downbeat. So what can you 48 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 2: do to close the gap on the positive side in 49 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: terms of how people feel about the US economy, especially 50 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 2: as we head into an election year. 51 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 3: So I think Ricans have been through a lot with 52 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 3: the pandemic and the lockdown for almost two years than 53 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 3: a period of high inflation. And as you say, they 54 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 3: do seem to feel good about their own personal finances. 55 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 3: Surveys of job satisfaction suggests people feel good about their 56 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 3: work too. We've rarely seen higher numbers on job satisfaction, 57 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: but they seem very worried about the economy and that 58 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 3: things are not doing well. You know, the US economy 59 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: has suffered from structural problems from a. 60 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 4: Very long time. 61 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 3: For a very long time, A significant share of the population, 62 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 3: particularly those who haven't had a college education, who have 63 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 3: really not seen meaningful growth in their real income and 64 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 3: have seen a decline in job opportunities over really approaching 65 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 3: fifty years. And I think what Americans need to know 66 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 3: is that the Biden Harris administration is really decisively changing 67 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 3: that we are investing in America. 68 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 4: We have passed three a. 69 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 3: Trifecta of legislation that people will increasingly see who've been 70 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 3: suffering from a shortage of job opportunities. I think they're 71 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 3: really going to see things change. First of all, we're 72 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 3: spending an enormous amount to repair America's infrastructure, and increasingly 73 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 3: people are going to see their roads that they get 74 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 3: hung up on every day. It's hard to commute with 75 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 3: potholes everywhere. It's going to be fixed, Bridges are going 76 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 3: to be improved. Reports, people are going to within the 77 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 3: next several years, virtually every American will have access to good, 78 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 3: good internet, so improving digital economy. And we've seen an 79 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 3: enormous set of investments announced in response, largely to the 80 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 3: Chips and Semiconductors Act and to the Inflation Reduction Act 81 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 3: in clean energy, and jobs are being created. What we 82 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 3: see in this past year is that a disproportionate share 83 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 3: of the jobs that are being created are in communities 84 00:05:45,440 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 3: that have had less economic opportunity, communities with below average 85 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 3: incomes and with a below average share of people who 86 00:05:56,279 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 3: have a college education. So this means that uppportunity will 87 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 3: increasingly come to people who really haven't in a sense, 88 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: gotten a fair shake over the last fifty years, as 89 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 3: they've seen jobs disappear. And you know, President Biden and 90 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 3: Vice President Harris and I really believe that you ought 91 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 3: to have access to a good job, even if you 92 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 3: don't have a college education. And increasingly I think people 93 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 3: will see that good opportunities are being created. Certainly, the 94 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 3: President is trying to go out and explain to people 95 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 3: what this longer term, medium term agenda. He would say, 96 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 3: it's a matter of growing the economy from the bottom up, 97 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 3: in the middle out. What we've had is too much 98 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:53,840 Speaker 3: of trying to grow the economy to trickle down from 99 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,279 Speaker 3: the going with gains going to the top with a 100 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 3: hope that it will trickle down. And I think we 101 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 3: beginning to see the fruits of these investments begin beginning 102 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 3: to pay off. So I think the Americans have a 103 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 3: lot to look forward to and beginning to see this 104 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 3: in their daily laws. 105 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 4: So we were just. 106 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 2: Talking about americans perception of the economy. 107 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: But another thing we follow. 108 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 2: Closely here at Bloomberg globally is investors perception of the economy. 109 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: So I want to ask you a little. 110 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 2: Bit about the rise in yields that we've seen. We've 111 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 2: seen yields surging over the last few weeks. The ten 112 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 2: year treasury rose above five percent earlier this week. What's 113 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 2: your view on what is driving that surgeon yields and 114 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 2: how much of it is connected to investors' concerns about 115 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 2: the US deficit. 116 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 3: Well, I don't think much of it is connected to that. 117 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 3: This is a global phenomenon in advanced countries. We're seeing 118 00:07:54,040 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 3: yields go up in most advanced countries of the world, 119 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 3: and largely I think it's a reflection of the resilience 120 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 3: that people are seeing in the US economy. That we're 121 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 3: not having a recession, that consumer spending and demand continue 122 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 3: to be strong. The economy is continuing continuing to show 123 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 3: tremendous robustness, and that suggests that interest rates are likely 124 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,840 Speaker 3: to stay higher for longer, and so part of the 125 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 3: increase in yields I think is simply a reflection of 126 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 3: the strength of the economy, the notion that interest rates 127 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 3: will be higher for longer. 128 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 4: Now, whether or not that's. 129 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 3: Really true, if we look at five or ten years, 130 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 3: what are interest rates likely to do? Honestly, for a 131 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 3: very long time we've felt that interest rates over decades 132 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 3: had been coming down real interest rates, and that there 133 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 3: were deep structural reasons for that, in part relating to 134 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 3: demographics and those underlying trends. They're still there, they're still 135 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 3: in force. So I think it's perfectly possible that we 136 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 3: will see longer term yields come down, but nobody really 137 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 3: knows for sure. But I see the higher yields as 138 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,599 Speaker 3: certainly importantly a reflection for stronger economy. 139 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 2: So when you think about the deficit, I think one 140 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 2: of your preferred metrics for assessing US fiscal stability is 141 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: to look at the net interest outlay as adjusted test relation. 142 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 2: And right now, I think you've said that those levels 143 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 2: seem good to you, but there are. 144 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 3: In real terms, it's about one percent a little bit 145 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 3: under that. 146 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 2: So that's helpful in terms of kind of the next 147 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 2: figure I was going to mention is several economists out 148 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 2: there are forecasting that that figure by twenty thirty could 149 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 2: be well north of two percent. So at that level, 150 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 2: would you be alarmed? In terms of the sustain fhysical sustainability. 151 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 3: Let me just say, fiscal sustainability is really critical, and 152 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 3: President Biden is committed to putting forward a fiscal plan 153 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 3: that shows fiscal sustainability and uncertainty about interest rates. Interest 154 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 3: rates do influence what the path of that real net 155 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 3: interest is going to be. There's a bigger challenge if 156 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 3: the interest rate path stays higher. President Biden has already 157 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 3: supported deficit reduction measures in the Pact, raising the dead 158 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 3: ceiling and other legislation. In the Inflation Reduction Act, there's 159 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 3: a trillion dollars of deficit reduction, and he proposed a 160 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 3: budget that both invests in America continues to do that 161 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 3: and also has riffin you raising measures that would result 162 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 3: in another two and a half trillion dollars of deficit 163 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 3: reduction over the next decade. So, yes, we have to 164 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 3: put forward fiscal plans that will keep the deficit manageable 165 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 3: and keep this real net interest cost I would say 166 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 3: well below two percent. So the higher the interest rate path, 167 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 3: the more that we need to do. 168 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 2: I want to take a moment a secretary and turn 169 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 2: to the global outlook. With the Israel Hamas war happening 170 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 2: in the Middle East, I think there's a concern by 171 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 2: some that the war could spread or expand to broader 172 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 2: in the region. 173 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: I know that that's not your base case. 174 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 2: But if that was to happen, could you walk us 175 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 2: through your wrist scenario for what that might mean to 176 00:11:58,400 --> 00:11:59,439 Speaker 2: the global economy. 177 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 3: So I guess I have to say my focus is, 178 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 3: I look now at what's happening to the Middle East. 179 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 3: Really is the tragedy, the human tragedy that's taking place 180 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 3: with the Israelis have suffered, and of course we're worried 181 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 3: about casualties in Gaza as Israel, you know, pursues its 182 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 3: war against Thomas and so it's really the human suffering 183 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:35,720 Speaker 3: that I think should be our focus in countering terrorism. 184 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 3: We're monitoring the economic consequences carefully. I so far, I 185 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 3: would say we've not yet seen much that has global consequences. 186 00:12:54,679 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 3: Oil prices are largely flat. What could happened if the 187 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 3: war expands. Of course there could be more meaningful consequences, 188 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 3: but I think it's premature to speculate against about those, 189 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 3: and I think our focus should be keeping miscontained and 190 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 3: not spreading. 191 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: So on Hamas. 192 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 2: I know the Treasury Department has taken further moves in 193 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: the last few weeks to restrict financing to Hamas, and 194 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: your under secretary Brian Nelson is actually in the Middle 195 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 2: East right now. 196 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: Do you think there's room for further. 197 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 2: Restricting or limiting financing to Hamas and if so, can 198 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 2: you tell us what might be some of the next steps. 199 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 3: So I can't comment on any specifics concerning sanctions we 200 00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 3: have not yet put in place, but what I can 201 00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 3: say is we have taken a large number of steps 202 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:59,439 Speaker 3: just over the last year to put in place sanctions 203 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:06,119 Speaker 3: to try to reduce the avenues for financing of Hamas, 204 00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 3: and in the aftermath of this attack last week, we 205 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 3: put additional sanctions in place. My Undersecretary, as you mentioned, 206 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 3: will be in the Middle East and Deputy Secretary Ademo 207 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 3: is leaving tonight for a trip to Europe to also 208 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 3: discuss working with our allies on sanctions. And we are 209 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 3: certainly looking at further opportunities we see to try to 210 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 3: reduce this flow of financing to Himas where all over 211 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 3: this and are likely to do more. 212 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 4: So. 213 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 2: One final question on the Middle East before before we 214 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: turn to other topics on Iran, can you help us 215 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 2: understand are the six billion dollars in Iranian oil proceed 216 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 2: assets the US treasury from access by Iran right now 217 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: as they sit in a Katari account. 218 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:09,800 Speaker 3: I guess all I can really tell you is that 219 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 3: not a penny of that money has been touched. The 220 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: Trump administration agreed to allow Iran to sell oil, and 221 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 3: the sales were largely to Korea, and the proceeds were 222 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 3: held in a Korean bank account and only permitted to 223 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 3: be used for humanitarian purposes, without any direct funding ever 224 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 3: going to Iran. And those proceeds were moved from Koreer to. 225 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 4: Kitar. They still sit there. 226 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 3: They can only be used for humanitarian purposes. 227 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 4: They have not been used. 228 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 3: And I don't feel comfortable saying more about diplomatic conversations 229 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 3: that are taking place, but Iran has not touched those phones. 230 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: We just as mentioned diplomacy, and so much of your 231 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 2: role as secretary has been actually traveling around the world. 232 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 2: We often think of the Treasury Department as so domestic, 233 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: but so much of what you've done is international, and 234 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 2: you're seen as a liberal economist supportive of free trade. 235 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: I wondered your. 236 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 2: Thoughts on how concerned are you that some of the 237 00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 2: Biden policies may be sealing a mistrust of globalization that 238 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 2: was ramped up in the Trump administration. 239 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 1: And whether that's actually good for the US economy. 240 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:39,280 Speaker 4: Well, I think that's a great question. 241 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 3: I've talked about concept I call friendsuring. So I think 242 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 3: it's a consequence partly of the pandemic and partly Russia's 243 00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 3: invasion of Ukraine. We've come to the realization that our 244 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 3: supply chains, America's supply chains are not secure, and in 245 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 3: some cases we're overly dependent on countries like China. And 246 00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 3: what we need to do is to take steps as 247 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 3: a country to reduce our vulnerability and to diversify our 248 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 3: supply chains. And to some extent that involves reassuring things 249 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 3: to the United States and doing more here, and certainly 250 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 3: in the area of clean energy. The Inflation Reduction Act 251 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:43,439 Speaker 3: has incentives to do more in the United States, and 252 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 3: the desire there, in part is to create good jobs 253 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 3: in industries that are likely to be drivers of future growth, 254 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 3: whether it's semiconductors or clean energy. But we don't want 255 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 3: to forego the benefits of globalization and trade, and so 256 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 3: the idea of friendshuring is that we want to be 257 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 3: able to rely on a broader set of countries to 258 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 3: do trade and investment. To deepen our trade and investment 259 00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 3: relationships with countries that we feel are trustworthy that can 260 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:29,960 Speaker 3: be reliable parts of a global supply chain that we 261 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 3: take part in. And part of what I've been doing 262 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 3: is traveling around the world talking to countries about developing 263 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 3: our supply chain relations And of course we're very close 264 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:48,240 Speaker 3: partners with Europe, with Canada, Mexico, other countries with whom 265 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 3: we have free trade areas, but many more countries. We're 266 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 3: deepening our relationships with India, with Vietnam, So we want 267 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 3: this to be broad. We understand and that the international 268 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:07,480 Speaker 3: division of labor with countries taking advantage of the benefits 269 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 3: of comparative advantage, doing what you're most efficient at, relatively 270 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 3: efficient at that this is a great set of benefits 271 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:22,200 Speaker 3: both for the United States and also countries that are 272 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 3: given the opportunity to trade and that contributes to their growth. 273 00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,920 Speaker 3: So we don't want to forego that, and we do 274 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 3: want to maintain the benefits of globalization, but without the 275 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 3: vulnerability that comes from a undue reliance on a few 276 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 3: countries that may restrict trade for political or other reasons. 277 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 2: So you mentioned broadening our network of friends that we 278 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 2: can have partnerships with, but also China I know you 279 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 2: took a trip to China and to Beijing this summer. 280 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: You've been talking about how our policy should really be 281 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 2: around de risking or diversifying rather than decoupling. But what 282 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 2: do you think is the current status of that. Do 283 00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 2: you think the Chinese have adopted that and feel like 284 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 2: they can trust us on that front, or do you 285 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 2: think they still really think that we're in a competition 286 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 2: with them first and foremost. 287 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 3: So, I mean we've particulated a strategy. As you said, 288 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:29,679 Speaker 3: it involves de risking in some areas where we're overly 289 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:34,720 Speaker 3: dependent on China, and clean energy is a good example. 290 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 3: We also intend to focus on national security. That's an 291 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 3: area that we're not willing to compromise on, and so 292 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 3: we do have export controls. We continue to review them. 293 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 3: We're working on a set of restrictions on outbound and 294 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 3: vestment to China. We've discussed this with them and put 295 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,400 Speaker 3: out a proposal that's in the public domain. I think 296 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 3: comments just closed on it. But our objective there is 297 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 3: to target what we do as narrowly as possible so 298 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,719 Speaker 3: that it really focuses on national security. That it is 299 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 3: not an intention in that to harm the prospects of 300 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 3: Chinese economic development and the welfare of the Chinese people. 301 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 3: So we intend to have healthy competition and mutually beneficial 302 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 3: trade and investment with China in many areas. I've tried 303 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 3: to make this clear. And then importantly, the third prong 304 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 3: of it is we need to work together on global problems. 305 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,719 Speaker 3: Debt relief is one of those problems. Climate changes another, 306 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 3: but there are many examples. So that's what we're trying 307 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 3: to do in terms of our strategy. You know, President 308 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 3: Biden and President she met in Bali. I guess it's 309 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 3: just over a year ago. I was at that meeting. 310 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 3: In more or less two over two years, almost no 311 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 3: senior level contact had taken place during the pandemic between 312 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 3: China and the United States, and I think that was 313 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 3: a dangerous situation. And especially when there are disagreements, it's 314 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:31,440 Speaker 3: actually important to be able to discuss them, to talk through, 315 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 3: to see the other country's point of view, and to 316 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 3: discuss areas where you're not in sync. And it was 317 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,760 Speaker 3: recognized by both sides that we needed to talk more 318 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 3: to deep in our discussions, exchange of information, and particularly 319 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:59,640 Speaker 3: in economic areas macroeconomic performance, financial markets, where our behavior 320 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:04,639 Speaker 3: has spillovers a back and forth to one another, and 321 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 3: also our decisions affect the global outlook as a whole. 322 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 3: And that's what I tried to begin in my meetings 323 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,360 Speaker 3: that I had in China, and things have continued very 324 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 3: positively from there. We've formed two working groups. They report 325 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 3: to me and my Chinese counterpart of Phone. One concerns 326 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 3: economic matters, the other financial matters. The working groups met 327 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 3: earlier this week. 328 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 4: Both of them. 329 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 3: Met and we now have a set of very constructive 330 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 3: and deepening discussions about areas of mutual concern. And it's 331 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 3: good to have contacts throughout our chain. It levels below 332 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 3: Secretary staff low full discussions and channels of communication where 333 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,199 Speaker 3: when the problem arises, each side can pick up the 334 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 3: phone and discuss it before it rises to the level 335 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:17,360 Speaker 3: of a real, really serious disagreement. So I think this 336 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:22,120 Speaker 3: agenda is working. We certainly will continue to deepen our 337 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 3: economic relationship and discussions, and I'm feeling very good about 338 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 3: how things are going there. 339 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:33,199 Speaker 2: Turning back to the US Secretary Yellen, you've described the 340 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 2: Biden administration's economic policies as something you referred to as 341 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 2: modern supply side economics. 342 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 1: And with those policies. 343 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: They're aiming to increase the productive capacity in the US. 344 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: That's right, Well, that's a pretty good big goal. 345 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,440 Speaker 2: So can you talk to me a little bit about 346 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,439 Speaker 2: how long do you think it's going to take for 347 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 2: some of those policies to become entrenched enough that they 348 00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 2: stick and have a real impact people. 349 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: And the reason I'm asking is because I'm looking ahead 350 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: to next year. The election is coming up. 351 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 2: What's at stake if the Democrats don't retain the White 352 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 2: House in terms of the ability for some of those 353 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:12,240 Speaker 2: policies to take hold. 354 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 3: So, yes, modern supply side economics, it's in part of 355 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 3: growth strategy, and this is something Republicans and Democrats I 356 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 3: think share. A desire to see real wages and incomes increase, 357 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 3: to see economic welfare for the broad set of Americans 358 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 3: to improve over time, and an economic growth or quote 359 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 3: supply side strategy. This isn't a matter of demand management. 360 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:53,160 Speaker 3: It's a matter of improving our economy's ability to produce 361 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,200 Speaker 3: goods and services. 362 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 4: Over the medium to long term. 363 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 3: I think agree on that it's widely accepted. The Republican 364 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 3: strategy has been, as I said, largely a trickle down 365 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:11,400 Speaker 3: strategy of giving tax breaks or deregulation to the rich 366 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 3: and corporations in the expectation or hope that benefits would 367 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 3: trickle down. More broadly, I see that as a failed 368 00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 3: strategy and one that has really not been successful it 369 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 3: creating broad shared prosperity. And I see modern supply side 370 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,399 Speaker 3: economics as having the same objective but proceeding in a 371 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 3: different way. And there are many factors that are inputs 372 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 3: into growth besides private investment. For too long we ignored infrastructure. 373 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 3: So investing in America's infrastructure as a return produces benefits. 374 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 4: R and D. 375 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 3: You know, we're now really after having decades in which 376 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:06,639 Speaker 3: US spending on research and development, certainly at the federal level, 377 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 3: had fallen to very low levels. 378 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 4: Were no longer one of. 379 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 3: The leading countries in terms of the resources we devote 380 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 3: to R and D. That we've stepped that up substantially 381 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,159 Speaker 3: in the legislation that's been passed. And what we want 382 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 3: is also growth. It's equitable, so addressing inequality as saying, 383 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 3: for over fifty years, essentially the median American really saw 384 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 3: very little growth, little or no growth in their real income. 385 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:43,879 Speaker 4: We want to change that. 386 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 3: We want to make sure that opportunities are created, especially 387 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 3: for those who don't have a college education and live 388 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,959 Speaker 3: in places. You know, we've had so much growth on 389 00:27:55,000 --> 00:28:00,199 Speaker 3: the coasts, but many parts of the country geographies that 390 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 3: it seems progress is passed by. And so if you 391 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 3: look at the legislation that's been passed and the investment 392 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,199 Speaker 3: plans that have been announced, we've seen over six hundred 393 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 3: billion dollars in new investments that have been announced. Now, 394 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 3: it takes a while to get those in place, but 395 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 3: look at where are those investments occurring. There are occurring 396 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 3: in parts of the country that have not seen that 397 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:33,640 Speaker 3: kind of investment. And you know, we're seeing electric vehicle 398 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 3: production and battery production in many parts of the country 399 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 3: that have been sorely hurting for good jobs. 400 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 4: And so it will take a while. 401 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 3: For Americans to see the benefits of this. But even now, 402 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 3: I think many Americans can see the good jobs are 403 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 3: being created in manufacturing, which is not done well over 404 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 3: decades in the United States. So I believe that opportunities 405 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 3: will be created and people will be able to see 406 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 3: that over time in their daily lives. 407 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 2: No matter what secretary you've been in public service nearly 408 00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:17,960 Speaker 2: five decades now, holding. 409 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 4: The it's a long time. 410 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 1: It's a lot of working years. 411 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,959 Speaker 2: As you show the labor economists, I will say that 412 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 2: you've held the top economic posts across the CEA, FED 413 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 2: and now Treasury. But you're also known as a technocrat 414 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 2: and a policy maker rather than a political animal. 415 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 4: Per se. 416 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 2: When you look at the divisiveness in Washington, and we've 417 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 2: just seen the past few weeks, even just on Capitol Hill, 418 00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,600 Speaker 2: are you concerned that there's less and less room for 419 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 2: a person like you to come into government in Washington 420 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 2: and make a notable difference at the highest levels if 421 00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 2: you're not as politically driven as policy driven. 422 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 3: I guess I see that we have a government that 423 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:18,640 Speaker 3: is filled with people who are professional, technically proficient, and 424 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,520 Speaker 3: dedicated to good policy. 425 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 4: And we are trying. 426 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 3: To put in place good, sound, technically solid government policy 427 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 3: in almost everything we do. And in spite of the 428 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 3: difficult political environment that we're in, President Biden and Vice 429 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 3: President Harris, in the time they have been in office, 430 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 3: have succeeded in a bipartisan way in having a great 431 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,000 Speaker 3: deal of meaningful legislation passed. 432 00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 4: The Treasury Department. 433 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 3: I spend a good share of my time working with 434 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 3: very capable people in our tax policy Department. We're charged 435 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,880 Speaker 3: with writing all of the rules that are governing of 436 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 3: the tax incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act. Those that 437 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 3: will are really creating enormous opportunities in connection with clean energy, 438 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 3: and we've gotten an allocation of funds to restore the 439 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:37,800 Speaker 3: Internal Revenue Service, to restore their ability to both serve 440 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 3: American customers who deserve to have somebody answered the phone 441 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:46,520 Speaker 3: when you when you call and have been missing that 442 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 3: for a long time, and also to actually collect the 443 00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 3: taxes that our tax code says people owe. And when 444 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 3: you think about the fact that over over ten years, 445 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 3: that gap, namely the quantity of tax revenue that's due 446 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 3: but not paid, is estimated it's seven trillion dollars. We're 447 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 3: in the process of restoring all of that. And the 448 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:18,520 Speaker 3: people who are doing this are a largely a civil 449 00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:27,000 Speaker 3: service that is tremendously competent, professional and dedicated to making 450 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 3: the United States function well. 451 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 4: So I think there's plenty. 452 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 3: Of scope for good policy, and I hope we're in 453 00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 3: the process of doing it in spite of some of 454 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 3: the what seems like political dysfunction in our country. 455 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,600 Speaker 2: Well Secretary Yellen, Thank you so much for joining us 456 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 2: today and giving us so much of your time and 457 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:47,680 Speaker 2: sharing your insights. 458 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 4: It's a true pleasure. Thank you so much. Thanks for 459 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 4: having that. Thank you, the Secretary of the US Treasury. 460 00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 2: They are Jannet Yellen, speaking with our very own Peggy 461 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 2: Collins and our Washington Bureau