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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Mark Moss Show,

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Speaker 1: where we talk about, of course, the decentralized revolution, which

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Speaker 1: is the way the world is breaking apart. Of course,

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Speaker 1: we look at it through the lens of politics, finance,

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Speaker 1: and technology, so we can bring context to what's going

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Speaker 1: on in the world. If you look at him in isolation,

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Speaker 1: it seems confusing. When you look at him together, it

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Speaker 1: paints a very clear picture. Of course, technology changes the

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Speaker 1: way the world works, change the way we organize and communicate,

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Speaker 1: and of course the technologist driving change is Bitcoin, the

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Speaker 1: decentralized protocol that's changing the world. You know. I like

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Speaker 1: to bring to you some education so you can learn

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Speaker 1: to look at these situations differently. So latest breaking news

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Speaker 1: and of course some interesting guests. You don't have to

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Speaker 1: listen to me talk all the time. And that's what

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Speaker 1: I got for you today. I am sitting down with

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Speaker 1: returning guest and a good friend, James Lavish, and we

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Speaker 1: are coming to you from Jackson Whole, Wyoming, where we

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Speaker 1: are here for a Bitcoin ski Week. Pretty fun event. James,

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Speaker 1: thanks for taking the time sit down with me. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: of course, thanks for having me. Mark. Always good to

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Speaker 1: talk to you. I know, I pulled you out of

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Speaker 1: those means over there anything good going on over there today?

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Speaker 1: All I could say is there's a lot of signal here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's like the exact opposite of the FED

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Speaker 1: meeting in the spring, right, Yeah, Yeah, we have what's

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Speaker 1: been imposed is Chatham House rules, which means sort of

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Speaker 1: like fight club first rule about fight clubs. Don't talk

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Speaker 1: about fight club and so we're not supposed to talk

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Speaker 1: about what's going on in there. You know, we kind

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Speaker 1: of have this privacy as a couple hundred people of

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Speaker 1: some of the you know, movers and shakers in the

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Speaker 1: industry would just say that, and so we kind of

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Speaker 1: have this, We have this kind of privacy things we

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Speaker 1: can't really talk about what's going on, but there is

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Speaker 1: a lot of signal, you know. It's it's good to

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Speaker 1: see all the things that are being developed and built

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Speaker 1: and kind of see the progress that's going on. But

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, I gave a talk yesterday at TVP,

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Speaker 1: which is a channel Venture Partners is a venture capital fund,

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Speaker 1: and they wanted me. They told me what they want

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Speaker 1: me to talk about, and they said it was the

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Speaker 1: uncertainty of the global macro economic picture and I gave

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Speaker 1: a talk and I said, you know what, you wanted

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Speaker 1: me to talk about the uncertainty, but I'm want to

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Speaker 1: talk about the certain of the act the macro economic picture.

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Speaker 1: I see where you're going, you know, I said, I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about the certainty of that. And so

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Speaker 1: I said, you know, there's no sustaining as life as certainties.

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Speaker 1: There's probabilities, but this is about as close to probabilistic

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Speaker 1: certainty that we have. And so I gave this kind

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Speaker 1: of talk, which mirrors a talk that you gave it

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Speaker 1: in Cabo a few weeks ago. And I started off

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Speaker 1: first because I was talking to this room of VC

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Speaker 1: sorry venture capitalist investors as well as developers building on that,

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Speaker 1: and I said, what are we all doing here? Are

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Speaker 1: we building a road to nowhere? Like okay, we're building

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Speaker 1: all this stuff, but like will it go anywhere? And

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Speaker 1: so let's talk about the certainty of that. And so,

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Speaker 1: like I said, I used some of the couple data

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Speaker 1: points that you you had given in that talk. I

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Speaker 1: started with talking about how the FED has been fighting inflation,

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Speaker 1: and they went from not thinking about thinking about raising

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Speaker 1: raids too. Then it's going to be transitory to oh, crap.

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Speaker 1: We have a problem, and now they're committed to crushing

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Speaker 1: demand to bring inflation down. But the problem is they

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Speaker 1: haven't brought inflation down and instead they've crushed the treasury. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: is that kind of what was happening here? That's absolutely fair.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look that the US is not alone. All sovereigns,

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Speaker 1: all FIAT backed by sovereigns they have, they have a

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Speaker 1: debt problem, they have they have a spending problem. But

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Speaker 1: if we just focusing on the US, you know, the

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Speaker 1: issue is that quite honestly, exactly what you said is

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Speaker 1: this is a certainty. And the if if the United

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Speaker 1: States Government, if the Treasury was a public company trading

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Speaker 1: on the New York Stock Exchange, we would define it

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Speaker 1: as a zombie company. And the reason for that is

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Speaker 1: that they do not generate enough revenues, okay, to pay

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Speaker 1: off the debt that they have on their balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: They don't generate enough revenue annually to pay the interest

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Speaker 1: on their debt. The only way for them to pay

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Speaker 1: that interest off and pay that that gap off is

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Speaker 1: to issue more debt, which only makes the problem worse.

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Speaker 1: It's a zombie company. If they would, they would be

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Speaker 1: rated junk status and h and be struggling to issue

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Speaker 1: that debt. Now you should that they don't make enough

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Speaker 1: revenue to cover the interest on the debt. They make

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Speaker 1: enough revenue if they didn't pay other expenses. Well, well,

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Speaker 1: first you'll agree with me on this. The US government

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Speaker 1: doesn't really make any revenue. They collect it. They collect

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Speaker 1: from the productive citizens of the United States, right, so

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Speaker 1: now they're collecting these revenues through taxes and uh. And

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Speaker 1: it's exactly what you said. And so basically if you

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Speaker 1: look at and you break it down there, you know

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Speaker 1: there's three main mandatory expenses that you have for the

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Speaker 1: for the US treasury. One of them is your your entitlements,

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Speaker 1: which is like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and all that. Well,

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Speaker 1: that adds up to three point eight tillion dollars okay annually.

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Speaker 1: And this this just came out in a credit in

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Speaker 1: a that's mandatory expensive. These are this is mandatory, they're

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Speaker 1: signed into legislation. This is this just came out in

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Speaker 1: the in the Congressional Budget Office, and they put out

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Speaker 1: a report um semi periodically. Just a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: they put out the report that that defines what their

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Speaker 1: projections are and let me let me say these projections

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Speaker 1: are they're they're pretty optimistic. Yeah, as bad as they are.

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Speaker 1: They're super optimistic, which is super troumbling. So the government's report,

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Speaker 1: the CBO, Congressional Budget Office, this is the government's own report, right,

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Speaker 1: So it's super troubling. Right. So okay, so you got

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Speaker 1: three point eight million trillion dollars of entitlements spending. That's

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Speaker 1: that's written into law for this year. That's money they

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Speaker 1: owe to people. That's a retirement pensions, Medicare, Medicaid, yeah,

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Speaker 1: and expected unemployment costs all that, right. And then you've

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Speaker 1: got eight hundred billion dollars of defense spending. And this

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Speaker 1: is what has been earmarked for defense. This isn't including

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Speaker 1: any extra expenses for Ukraine or anything else that's going on, right,

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Speaker 1: So this is just marked for it. But those are

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Speaker 1: long term contracts. They can't get out of them. They

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Speaker 1: have to pay them, right. So that's the second thing.

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Speaker 1: So now we're at what four point six trillion dollars.

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Speaker 1: Then you've got what they expect to be this year.

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Speaker 1: Remember this is this was just put out and they

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Speaker 1: expect the net interest to be seven hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: on the debt that the Treasury has has issued. So

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Speaker 1: so the government owes thirty one and a half trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars to the FED, and they have to pay interest

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Speaker 1: on that thirty one and a half trillion. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: to the Fed, and and to private citizens, to whoever

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Speaker 1: is exactly so. And so now now add that all up,

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Speaker 1: and we're at five point three trillion dollars of expenses.

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Speaker 1: What does the US Treasury expect to take in in

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Speaker 1: in tax revenues this year four point eight trillion. So

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Speaker 1: you don't have to be a math genius. And as

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Speaker 1: our good friend Greg Foss likes to say, it's it's

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Speaker 1: not even a great eleven math. This is like great

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Speaker 1: four math, right elementary school. These are mandatory expenses. So

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Speaker 1: then when you add in all the other expenses on

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Speaker 1: top of it, so you're at you're at a five

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Speaker 1: hundred billion dollar hole. But when you add in all

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Speaker 1: the other expenses market you're at one point four trillion.

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Speaker 1: That's expected this year. We're expected to to to have

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Speaker 1: a deficit of one point four trillion dollars then, and

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Speaker 1: that's based off of their expectations of how much money

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Speaker 1: they expect or I should say hope and pray to

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Speaker 1: receive exactly. And so that's also based off of the

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Speaker 1: interest being what it is and not going to higher.

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Speaker 1: That's right, that's right. And so but when you when

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Speaker 1: you when you add in certain when you add in

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Speaker 1: certain adjustments and UH and programs and UH, and then

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Speaker 1: you add in the major problem is what you what

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Speaker 1: you defined before, is that the Fed is putting the

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Speaker 1: Treasury in a very difficult position. Why is that, Well,

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Speaker 1: the Treasury issues their debt okay, at um, and we

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Speaker 1: have about thirty one point five trillion dollars outstanding and

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Speaker 1: to keep it simple, about fifth percent of that debt

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Speaker 1: is being retired in the next one to three years. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So what does that mean, Well, that that debt matures. Well,

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Speaker 1: how do they that matures then, because because for everyone listening,

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Speaker 1: what that means is that the debt isn't just all

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Speaker 1: owed next year or in thirty years. It's six months,

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Speaker 1: two years, five years, ten years, thirty years, etc. Different maturity.

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Speaker 1: And as it matures, they have to give the debt owner,

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Speaker 1: the one who bought the debt, they have to give

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Speaker 1: them the principal back. Well, the Treasury doesn't have that money,

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Speaker 1: So what do they do to give the principal back.

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Speaker 1: They issue more debt, so essentially they're replacing that old

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Speaker 1: debt with new debt. The problem is the interest rates

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Speaker 1: on the new debt are about three to four percent

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Speaker 1: higher than the old debt. So it is creating this

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Speaker 1: massive hole in the balance sheet of the treasury because

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Speaker 1: now that now they are owing way more interest than

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Speaker 1: they owe just last year because of the higher interest

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Speaker 1: cost on the new yet so it just becomes a

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Speaker 1: self fulfilling spiral. It's called the debt spiral. And this

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Speaker 1: is what we're in. If you're just tuning in, you're

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Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Moss Show, coming to you from

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Speaker 1: Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I'm sitting down with James Lavish. You

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Speaker 1: can check him out on Twitter at James Lavish. Check

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Speaker 1: out the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund as well. You can google that.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about the inevitability of what's going to happen

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Speaker 1: with the global macroeconomic picture, some of the interesting stuff.

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Speaker 1: You don't want to miss this. We're gonna uncover this

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Speaker 1: and unpack it more. Don't go away, We're gonna be

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Speaker 1: right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tuning in.

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Speaker 1: You are listening to the Mark Moss Show. Of course,

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Speaker 1: we're always talking about the decentralized revolution, and right now

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Speaker 1: we're talking about the way the money is decentralizing because

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Speaker 1: it's breaking up hearts as the FED is trying to

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Speaker 1: crush inflation. It's going nowhere, but instead they're crushing the government.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting down with James Lavish. You can check him

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Speaker 1: out on Twitter at James Lavish. Also he writes an

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Speaker 1: amazing newsletter, The Informationist. It's free. I think you still

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Speaker 1: have a free version. There's a free version. There's a

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Speaker 1: free version. You should definitely check it out, packed with information.

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Speaker 1: Check that out and check out the Bitcoin Opportunity Dot

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Speaker 1: Fund as well. But James, so we are going through

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Speaker 1: basically how the treasury has to pay interest on the debt.

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Speaker 1: But some of the interest is some of the debt

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Speaker 1: needs to be rolled over or turned over in the

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Speaker 1: next year, and someone has to be in thirty years.

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Speaker 1: But the problem is when does it have to be

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Speaker 1: refinanced and at what rate and what will that do

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Speaker 1: to the amount that's owed. Exactly, So, the current yield

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Speaker 1: on the average yield on all the treasures that are

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Speaker 1: outstanding right now is one point seven percent. As you

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Speaker 1: retire that debt which was issued most of it was

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Speaker 1: issued earlier, which means it's lower rate. Okay, so it's

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Speaker 1: under that average. Well, fifty percent of that matures the

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Speaker 1: next three years. You have to replace that with new debt,

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Speaker 1: and now you're talking about replacing it somewhere between three

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Speaker 1: and a half and five percent. Problem, let me ask

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Speaker 1: you a question about that. First of all, fifty percent

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Speaker 1: in the next three years sounds really bad. What's even

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Speaker 1: worse is it's thirty percent in one year. Yeah. Now,

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Speaker 1: when you say it has to get it'll get a

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Speaker 1: new rate of between three and a half to five percent.

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Speaker 1: Will it be at the rate of what the Fed

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Speaker 1: funds rate is? So right now it's going to be

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Speaker 1: five percent. Where do you get to three and a

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Speaker 1: half to five Yeah, exactly. So the short term, you know,

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Speaker 1: anywhere from three months, six months, one year, two years

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Speaker 1: would be much higher rates. And then as you go

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Speaker 1: flurt the route you go to the five year, ten year. Okay,

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Speaker 1: they're at they're at lower rates. So but it's and

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Speaker 1: here's the problem, to simplify it for everyone, It's like

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Speaker 1: a single parent who is has their mandatory expenses. You've

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Speaker 1: got your more reagi, get your car payment, You've got

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Speaker 1: food you've got to put on the table for the kids.

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Speaker 1: You've got to pay your energy bill. You want to

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Speaker 1: keep the heat on. These are things that you have

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Speaker 1: to pay. Right. So, if you're if you're working two jobs,

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Speaker 1: you don't have any more time to work and you're

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Speaker 1: just not meeting the margin, what do you do? Well,

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Speaker 1: you take out a credit card. And it's an obvious thing,

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Speaker 1: you know. So you take out the credit card and

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Speaker 1: you start charging food and some gas and other expenses

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Speaker 1: on your credit card. And let's say hypothetically that's you

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Speaker 1: get like this introductory low interest rate, and then the

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Speaker 1: low interest rate goes away, and suddenly it spikes up

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Speaker 1: from zero percent or five percent up to you know,

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Speaker 1: you're seventeen eighteen, twenty two, twenty eight percent, right, okay?

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Speaker 1: So and then eventually your interest payments on that credit

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Speaker 1: card are so big that now you've maxed out that

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Speaker 1: credit card, and you what do you have to do?

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Speaker 1: You take out another credit card, and it happens, and

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Speaker 1: then you take out another credit card. The problem is

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Speaker 1: as you take out more and more credit cards. Your

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Speaker 1: credit score goes down, the interest rate on all those

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Speaker 1: credit cards goes up, the problem comes becomes worse, and

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Speaker 1: that's the debt spiral. That's simply what we're doing the

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Speaker 1: United States. And I'm not saying that the United States

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Speaker 1: is going to go it's going to go bankrupt, and

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Speaker 1: I mean it is bankrupt, but it's not it's not

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Speaker 1: going to disappear the default. It's not paying. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: not going to default. You can't. It wouldn't default because

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Speaker 1: we can print our own money and we can buy

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Speaker 1: our own bonds. And that's the inevitability. And that's the inevitability.

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Speaker 1: So that's the point, right. So I saw I saw

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Speaker 1: President Biden or whoever writes his tweets I think it

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Speaker 1: was yesterday, said the US has never defaulted on its debt.

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Speaker 1: Let me be clear, you know, we're not going to default.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get this debt ceiling raised or whatever, something

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Speaker 1: to that effect. I don't remember exactly. And I was

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Speaker 1: going to reply to it, actually, I might started saying

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Speaker 1: to my drafts, but I was like, someone should probably

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Speaker 1: tell him, maybe he maybe just tell him that they

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Speaker 1: have we have defaulted. Yeah, that's what I was gonna say, like, hey,

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Speaker 1: someone should probably tell him, like we've already actually defaulted,

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Speaker 1: Like if you have to take on more debt to

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Speaker 1: pay old debt, like I thought that was like a

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Speaker 1: Ponzi or something. You kind of like that. Yeah, So,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's pretty simple. You operating a deficit, You

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Speaker 1: issue debt to cover that deficit at higher interest rates,

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Speaker 1: causing larger deficits, leading to more debt, leading to higher

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Speaker 1: interestry payments, leading to larger deficits, and then more debt.

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Speaker 1: It's just a spiral you can't get out of. And

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Speaker 1: that's where we are. So so to frame this up,

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Speaker 1: the inflation got out of control, so the FED decided

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Speaker 1: to jack the rates higher and faster than timent history.

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Speaker 1: They've done that, and they haven't really had much of

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Speaker 1: an effect on inflation, but with the interest rates going

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Speaker 1: up so high, they have caused the treasure to pay

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Speaker 1: more interest on the debt, which they can't afford to do.

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Speaker 1: On top of that, and I don't think you talked

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Speaker 1: about this yet, I mean, but on top of that,

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Speaker 1: by what they're trying to crush demand. What they've done

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Speaker 1: is trying to crush demand, make people poor and they've

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Speaker 1: done a pretty good job with that. And when people

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Speaker 1: are poor, then they don't spend as much, which means

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Speaker 1: there's not as much tax income coming into the treasury. Right,

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Speaker 1: and that's exactly right. So as we're seeing some indicators

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Speaker 1: and they're kind of mixed. But when if you if

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Speaker 1: you tighten credit enough, you will run into an issue

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Speaker 1: where you're going to go into a recession. It means

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Speaker 1: that your your productivity contracts, which means that you're the

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Speaker 1: revenues generated for the company's contract and the multiples on

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Speaker 1: those securities that trade, and the stock market contract. Everything

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Speaker 1: just feeds on itself and so it just equals less

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Speaker 1: tax revenue for the government. Okay, So again, like what

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Speaker 1: are their choices? What can they do? They're trying to

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Speaker 1: get inflation down because they can't let it get out

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Speaker 1: of control because if inflation is out of control then

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Speaker 1: and what what sane investor is going to buy a

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Speaker 1: bond that's based in a in a currency that's deflating, inflating,

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Speaker 1: meaning it's debasing um in perpetuity and at a rate

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Speaker 1: that it just doesn't make sense. It's it's called a

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Speaker 1: negative interest rate, a negative real rate. So but what

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Speaker 1: are their choices, like, what are the what are the

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Speaker 1: government's choices? Right, So you can either have austerity, yeah,

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Speaker 1: which means live on a budget, live within your means. Right,

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Speaker 1: so you can cut programs, you can cut spending, you

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Speaker 1: can cut government spending. That's a political suicide. Noe. Neither

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Speaker 1: party is going to do that, you know, both parties

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Speaker 1: going to try to get the other one to do it.

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Speaker 1: It's a trick, you know, um no, no, no one's

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Speaker 1: ever going to be elected running on a campaign to

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Speaker 1: take money away from people. Correct. And or you could

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Speaker 1: raise taxes also not you know, politically it was only

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Speaker 1: so high. You can go exactly and a fifty percent

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Speaker 1: about it, and then the people revolt. People revolt, and

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Speaker 1: it actually ultimately worsens your It lowers GDP, it impacts

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Speaker 1: your productivity negatively, and so you get the same result.

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Speaker 1: You're going to have lower tax revenue. And or there's

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Speaker 1: a third option is issue more debt, which is the

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Speaker 1: obvious one, which which is what we've been doing, debasement.

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Speaker 1: But there that's the fourth option. Right, So the fourth

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Speaker 1: option is to two one one is the default, right,

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Speaker 1: or you're not going to default, right, you're going to

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Speaker 1: issue more debt. Okay. So, but and then one derivative

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Speaker 1: from that is your point is debasement, which is allow

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Speaker 1: inflation to run hotter than they admit to. Imagine that

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Speaker 1: you know, the CPI. We've seen how the CPI is

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Speaker 1: is has been You've done videos about that. Sow the

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Speaker 1: CPI is manipulated. How they're kind of lying about how much, um,

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Speaker 1: how they just change the way they calculated. They're kind

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Speaker 1: of hiding how much. But the point is that it

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Speaker 1: allows them to generate a GDP, generate revenue that the

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Speaker 1: government can collect taxes on that's at a higher It's

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Speaker 1: just it's just more dollars, right, because it's inflated. And

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Speaker 1: then they pay down old debt, that debt that they're

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Speaker 1: paying down there, they're paying down old debt with cheaper dollars. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So it's it's called debasement, and it's called inflating away

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Speaker 1: the debt. And they're going to do this for as

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Speaker 1: long as they possibly can. And that's the point that

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Speaker 1: why this all matters is that money is being taken

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Speaker 1: out of people's pockets every day in order to keep

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Speaker 1: this ponzi going. Period. Yeah, why does it matter. That's

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Speaker 1: like always a question I try and come back to

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Speaker 1: and to me, why it matters is trying to get

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Speaker 1: the direction right. Trying to get the direction right because

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Speaker 1: I think if we zoom out, we'll figure that out.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, there's so much to dig into. I can't

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Speaker 1: wait to dig in more. If you're just tune in

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Speaker 1: and you're listening to the Mark Moas Show, I'm sitting

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Speaker 1: down with James Lavish. Check them out on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: James Lavish and check out Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund for

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Speaker 1: more info there as well. I want to dig into

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Speaker 1: some of the constraints and the walls that we're gonna hit.

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Speaker 1: We're already seeing that a whole lots of unpack. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna be back with more in a minute. Don't go away,

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Speaker 1: We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're

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Speaker 1: just tune in, you are listening to the Mark Moss Show,

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting down with James Lavish and we are talking

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Speaker 1: about the certainty in life. There's no such thing as certainty.

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Speaker 1: Is there's probabilities, but the probability is very high that

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Speaker 1: we know which direction we're going. And we're talking about that.

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Speaker 1: You know, as we break this down, just kind of

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Speaker 1: think about, like we're trying to think about the direction

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Speaker 1: things are going. So this doesn't tell us what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen next week or next month, but I feel

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Speaker 1: pretty good about what is going to happen over the

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Speaker 1: next five years. Right, And so the longer you zoom out,

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Speaker 1: I think that the clearer the picture gets. And so

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Speaker 1: we want to be right directionally, So just kind of

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Speaker 1: think about that. And I think it's also one reason

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Speaker 1: why you see even though Jeroan Powell keeps going, hey, markets,

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Speaker 1: you don't understand pain, pain, pain, We're gonna crush you.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna come down. But the markets are like, yeah, right,

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Speaker 1: we know where that limit is. And so every time

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Speaker 1: time um inflation comes in hotter than they expected it too,

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Speaker 1: it's more sticky than they wanted. The unemployment rate is

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Speaker 1: staying low, wages are staying high, all these things. All

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Speaker 1: the people on TV are like, well, higher, they got

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Speaker 1: a high higher higher, higher, for longer higher. It's like

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Speaker 1: this parrot, right, higher, higher, higher, But like how high

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Speaker 1: and how long can it really go? That's right? I mean,

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Speaker 1: if they can. There's a lot of calls that have

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Speaker 1: been going around over the last number of months, and

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Speaker 1: and you hear Chairman Powell talk about he's kind of

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Speaker 1: invoking them the Vulcar era, and he's going to be

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Speaker 1: Vulcar like. He's kind of wants to embody that he's

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Speaker 1: wants to be seen as the hawk that that tamed inflation.

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Speaker 1: And the reality is that was at a time where

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Speaker 1: debt to GDP was a fraction of what it is now, right,

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Speaker 1: So what does that mean? That means that our debt

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Speaker 1: was thirty percent of our GDP now it's one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty percent. So he can't he literally cannot do

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Speaker 1: that without distres drawing the treasure. We would have to

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Speaker 1: we would have to debate so rapidly, we would have

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Speaker 1: to print so much. He can't do that because of

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Speaker 1: exactly what we just said. Raise if you raise rates, okay,

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Speaker 1: if you raise rates to ten percent or twelve percent

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Speaker 1: or fifteen percent, there's no way you could get to

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Speaker 1: twenty percent. It's just not it's it's mathematically um it's

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Speaker 1: a mathematical suicide for the currency. We would we would

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Speaker 1: destroy the currency. So again, what's their choice just to

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Speaker 1: just to keep inflation running a little bit hotter? Than

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Speaker 1: they may want to admit to. Maybe a lot hotter,

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Speaker 1: maybe a lot hotter, and uh and and inflate away

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Speaker 1: that debt. That's that's what it is. But look, Mark,

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Speaker 1: we have we've raised the debt limit twenty two times

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Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety seven, and we're gonna do it again.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do it again and again and again. That's

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Speaker 1: an absolute certainty. We're gonna keep doing it. The Treasury

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Speaker 1: put out a chart. It's crazy. This is the craziest thing.

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Speaker 1: They actually put out a report recently. And the report

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Speaker 1: was it was titled um uh, it was titled an

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Speaker 1: Unsustainable Fiscal Path. Yeah, the US Treasury put this out

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Speaker 1: and they put out this this um this chart of

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Speaker 1: what they what they think the percentage of debt um

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Speaker 1: held by the public is going to be right, And uh,

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Speaker 1: it looks like a hockey stick. As a percentage of GDP,

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Speaker 1: it looks like an absolute hockey stick. So like when

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Speaker 1: you get in out to years twenty, twenty fifty, twenty sixty,

425
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: it's like we're nearing a thousand percent. They're expecting the debt,

426
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: the debt to just keep going and it's goes straight up.

427
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 1: It's it's actually it's unnerving to see that they First

428
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 1: of all, they that they admitted it. They see it,

429
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 1: they know it. But this proves that they know there's

430
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 1: just no way out. They as there's just no way out,

431
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 1: and so eventually the US will likely be the last

432
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 1: currency to fail. But this just there's just no way

433
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: for them to get out of this problem. Yeah, so

434
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 1: and a couple other things. So there's no way to

435
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,199
Speaker 1: get out of the problem. The only way they can

436
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: keep service in the debt is to take on more debt.

437
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: Biden tweets as much they I mean, he says it

438
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 1: in his tweets that they put their reports out and

439
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,640
Speaker 1: they tell us that, So like, this is not James

440
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,920
Speaker 1: and I sitting here and we're thinking speculation. This is

441
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 1: what they're saying. And this is the math, right, And

442
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: then you throw in things like well, printing more money

443
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: causes inflation, so there's gonna be more inflation, and they're

444
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 1: having to print at the same time, which is a problem.

445
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: But then if we even look globally, and the one

446
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 1: thing I want to jump from is that, and I

447
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 1: think you had talked about this. This is not just

448
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 1: a United States problem. This is a global problem. Yeah, right,

449
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 1: all the governments of the world, in central banks of

450
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: the world are in the same basic predicament. Yeah, I

451
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: mean you can see the cracks appearing all over the place,

452
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 1: Like Japan. Japan's an interesting one because they they've they've

453
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: been they've been running a high debt to GDP for

454
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 1: a very long time. They have a different decker demographic.

455
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 1: Theyre a net exporter, we're net import It is a

456
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: different beast. However, what they've been doing recently is they've

457
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: been trying to get inflation hotter. Well why are they

458
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 1: doing that? They keep saying, we need inflation, we need inflation,

459
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 1: we need inflation. Well, because their debt to GDP is

460
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty percent already. Remember US is only

461
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 1: running about one hundred and thirty percent. There's two hundred

462
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 1: and fifty already, only one hundred and thirty. Really, the

463
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 1: the kill zone if you're a climbing Mount Everest, I

464
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: think they call it the kill zone if you could

465
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: go above it, and the kill zone is like ninety percent.

466
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 1: So we're way above the kill zone. Yeah, way above

467
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 1: so um. But in Japan, they they've had they've gotten

468
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: to the point where they're they're holding their ten year

469
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 1: treasury at at a fifty basis point yield, which means

470
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 1: that they're standing there and buying as many treasures as

471
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 1: anybody's selves to be sure that that interest rate doesn't

472
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,880
Speaker 1: go over fifty basis points. So they're monetizing their own debt.

473
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: What are they doing. They're printing in and buying bonds.

474
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 1: And now the Bank of Japan is the largest owner

475
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: of all issued jgbs Japanese government bonds in the world. Yeah,

476
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: so if we look at it like the globe, the

477
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 1: globes having the same problem. And then if you look

478
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 1: at this, then we have wars going everywhere. So now

479
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: the US is trying to get into war with China

480
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: and Russia and Ukraine, and war is very inflationary. Supply

481
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 1: chains breakdown even more. And I wouldn't say that most

482
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: of our inflation that we had is not demand side,

483
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 1: which is why the Fed's losing its supply side, and

484
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 1: so war is going to create more problems and supply side,

485
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 1: it's also going to create more demand as well. Right, So,

486
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: now we saw the US doesn't have enough communitions for

487
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 1: one week in the Taiwan straight and so we were

488
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 1: running out of munitions to send the Ukraines. We have

489
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: to resupply. And I think what we're seeing is Zoltan

490
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,680
Speaker 1: Posar had this theory of going back to this commodity

491
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 1: based money, and so where people don't want to hold dollars,

492
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: they want to rather hold the commodities in the ground.

493
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: I saw this week Russia said they're going to reduce

494
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: their oil production because they'd rather keep the oil in

495
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 1: the ground. It makes sense, and that pushes the price

496
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: of oil up, which is more inflation. Yeah. Energy, like

497
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: every all productivity relies on energy, right, Um, we go,

498
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: just put it all the pieces together. Debt in itself

499
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: is not inherently bad. You can pull future productivity into

500
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: the now. But when you when you issue too much

501
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: debt and again you get over your ski tips as

502
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 1: we say, um in the investment world. Then I'm a

503
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: dirt biker. We say over the handlebars, and you get

504
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 1: over there. You go. I like that even better, you

505
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: get over your handlebars. And but that's the problem. Um

506
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 1: and uh so yeah, so that that and they're they're

507
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: in lies the issue, right, So exactly what you're saying,

508
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: Ludwig von Misas arguably the godfather of the Austrian school

509
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: of economics. He calls it the crack up boom, and

510
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: he says, and then suddenly everybody realizes inflation is both

511
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 1: intentional and permanent, and then nobody wants it, and so

512
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 1: they're quickly trying to exchange it for goods and services

513
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: as fast as they can, and that leads to this

514
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 1: hyperinflationary boom. And so I think we're seeing that. You know,

515
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: back to Russia, they'd rather keep the oil on the ground.

516
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: Central banks bought the most gold on record last year.

517
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 1: So the last couple years have been buying more than

518
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: since nineteen twenty one. No, now they bought the most

519
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 1: on record. General Motors invested six hundred and fifty million

520
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 1: in the US lithium. Mind, they'd rather have the lithium

521
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: in the ground than the money Volvo did, LG did.

522
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 1: And so this is like a really really really strong

523
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: trend that's happening. Now. I want to kind of talk

524
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: about what do we do about all this? What do

525
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: we do about it this? So the first thing is

526
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: if we look at a couple of examples. I use

527
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:39,040
Speaker 1: this chart in my in my presentation yesterday. If you

528
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: look at the Zimbabwe stock market from twenty twelve to

529
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:47,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. It kind of it kind of meandered down

530
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: a little bit and then it shot up like a skyrocket.

531
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,479
Speaker 1: We know if if the Turkish lira has lost eight

532
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: ninety percent of its value to the US dollar over

533
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: the last five years. So if we were in Turkey

534
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,200
Speaker 1: five years ago, if we had a time machine, what

535
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: would we have done, Yeah, you buy your turket stocks.

536
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: We would have not wanted to hold Turkish lira. We

537
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 1: would have wanted to get into something else, and then

538
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 1: maybe we'd want to take debt. Yeah, exactly. So then

539
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: you would go, well, the well, I'm gonna tell you

540
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: the rest. We gotta take a break. I'm gonna leave

541
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 1: you on a cliffhanger there. We're gonna talk about what

542
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: we should do with the benefit of hindsight and what

543
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 1: options and opportunities we have available to us today. If

544
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: you just tune in and listening to the Mark Moas Show,

545
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: I'm sitting down with James Lavish. Check him out at

546
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 1: James Lavish and I'm at one Mark Moss check us out.

547
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 1: Check out Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund for more info on that.

548
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: We're gonna be back with more and tell you what

549
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: we should do with the benefit of hindsight. Will be

550
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: back with all that and more in a minute. Don't

551
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 1: go away, We're back, all right, Welcome back. If you

552
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 1: just tune in, you're listening to the Markmas Show and

553
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,880
Speaker 1: you have missed a lot, so you better go back

554
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 1: and listen to it on the podcast. Just search Mark

555
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: Mos Show on your favorite podcast player, or go to

556
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 1: the Market Disruptors YouTube channel and you can come out

557
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: over there. I'm sitting down with James Lavish when we're

558
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: talking about the inevitability of the global financial system, the

559
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 1: United States and every other government, and I was making

560
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 1: the case what we want to do is we want

561
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: to look at other experiences where we were in a

562
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: similar time frame, or other time frames where we're in

563
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 1: a similar experience, and what we would have done with

564
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: the benefit of hindsight. And so we see the Turkish

565
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: lira over the last five years lost ninety percent of

566
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 1: its value, So we would have not wont to hold

567
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: Turkish lera. We'd rather hold like US dollars, and so

568
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: we don't. Now today we can see the US dollars

569
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 1: lost sixty five percent to the sp five lost forty

570
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 1: five percent to the median real estate. So the dollars

571
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,959
Speaker 1: also doing the same thing. So probably just what central

572
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 1: banks are doing, just what GM, Volvo and LG just did,

573
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: what Russia is deciding to do. We probably don't want

574
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: to hold fiat and we'd rather hold commodities. Well, one

575
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: of the biggest mistakes people make in these countries is

576
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: they can't get out of their fiat, right, so what

577
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: do they do? They go into the stock market. So

578
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: you play that, you know they'll buy that stock. You'll

579
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 1: see the stock market kind of melt up. Why because

580
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: it's the easiest thing for them that they can buy

581
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: fire fractions of things. They don't have to buy real estate.

582
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: They can just buy a little bit of stock, and

583
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: so you see the stock market run. But what happens

584
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: when they need their money out They sell that and

585
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: they get what Yeah, exactly, so and that's that they're

586
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: in lies the issue. But if you get your money

587
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 1: out of lira, yeah, so you know, uh, these companies

588
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: GM bought a lithium mine. UM I can't buy a

589
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: lithium mine. The problem with commodities is that UM commodities

590
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: are very hard to own. I mean, you can own

591
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: some gold. If you have too much gold, you can't.

592
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 1: You have to have someone stored for you. Obviously, I

593
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: can't date delivery of a barrel of oil. I can't

594
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: have uranium in my house like right, And so commodies

595
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: are very hard to own. Um the best commodity in

596
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 1: the world, and best is a relative term. But I

597
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: like bitcoin, right. Bitcoin is a commodity. And Gary Ginsler,

598
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 1: the head of the SEC, has been coming out and

599
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 1: repeating over and over and over with increasing frequency that

600
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: bitcoin is a commodity and nothing else. And I saw

601
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence put out a piece last year and they

602
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: said that bitcoin they expected bitcoin to move into a

603
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: risk off asset, and I think we're starting to see

604
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: that in some regards. And so I think about bitcoin

605
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 1: as a commodity one that's going to be in massive demand.

606
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: If this thesis is true, which let's actually not say

607
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: the thesis. If what the government and the Treasury and

608
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 1: the CBO is telling us is true, which I believe,

609
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: then they're gonna print lots of money. And so then

610
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: we want to not hold that we want to hold commodities.

611
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:28,959
Speaker 1: Bitcoin might be the best commodity and we can take

612
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: custody of it and all those things, and potentially we're

613
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 1: starting to move into this risk off asset which looks

614
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: like it could be happening. So yeah, let's let's talk

615
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: about that. So, um, first of all, going back to

616
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: your your your main point, which is you want to

617
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: own assets. Right, So, using some of Lyndall Alden's recent research,

618
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 1: if you had, if you want to buy one barrel

619
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: of oil back in nineteen thirteen, would have cost you

620
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: just under a dollar, right, so that today one barrel

621
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 1: of oil will cost you about eighty dollars. So if

622
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 1: you had to held a barrel of oil all those years, right,

623
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:08,240
Speaker 1: you would exactly so. Or if you if you had

624
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: an ounce of gold, it would have bought you about

625
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 1: twenty two barrels in nineteen thirteen of oil, and today

626
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: one ounce of gold would buy you about twenty four.

627
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 1: So we kept your value. But there are so many

628
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 1: problems with gold. Like you said, I have nothing against gold,

629
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: but it's not the ultimate store of value, and it's

630
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: it's not easily transferable. You can't transport it very easily,

631
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: you can't cross borders with it very easily. But in

632
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 1: an exact opposition to that, Bitcoin you, it's decentralized, it's

633
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 1: it's immutable, it's scarce, it's easily transferable, and possibly most

634
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: important of all, it's censorship resistant. Possibly, I would say

635
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: it probably is. Now. I've been a commodities investor, mostly

636
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 1: precious metals and energy for a long time. But again,

637
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: like I can't really take a barrel of oil delivery,

638
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: and so, like you know, I'm not I'm not the

639
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,719
Speaker 1: super advanced options traders, so I'm not playing a lot

640
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: of gold, I'm sorry, oil futures things like that. But

641
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: I like to invest through the oil ecosystem. So I

642
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: like to buy pipelines and tankers. I like to buy drilling. Uh,

643
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 1: you know, manufacturers are creating new drilling technologies things like that,

644
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 1: and through the ecosystem. Um. Same with you know, other

645
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: commodities and things like that. Um. It seems like the

646
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: way the bitcoin is kind of setting up, we're starting

647
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: to see this ecosystem full of opportunities as well. Yeah,

648
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: it's massive, and you've you've talked about this before, and

649
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: you hit on this really hard in Cabo, and it's

650
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: about bitcoin being the sixth technological revolution, you know, and

651
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: and you know we've we've had our hydro power. We

652
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,719
Speaker 1: had our steam power, you had electric power. You had

653
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 1: um combustion, which the cars and automobiles and airplanes. Um.

654
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: And then you had communicating and storing information. You had

655
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 1: the microchips, UM, you had in tell Microsoft software the

656
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: things the Facebook, yeah, and and uh in the Internet, yeah,

657
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 1: in the Internet. And now with bitcoin you have something

658
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 1: that that communicates in stores of value. And that's and

659
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: that is the that's the the revolution that will create

660
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 1: all of the end will disrupt, it will it will

661
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: disrupt and create new areas and industries and sectors. And

662
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: so like you're saying, you you invest not just in

663
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: oil and not just in bitcoin, but you invest in

664
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: oil drillers, you know, oil services, tanks, tankers, anything that's

665
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: that's around that business, and you diversify your investment and

666
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: you can do the exact same thing in bitcoin. Yeah. Yeah,

667
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 1: there's so many opportunities that are popping up. So I know, um,

668
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: you know something I've been working with you on and

669
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: a couple other people you mentioned Greg Foss earlier, Greg

670
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 1: Foss and learn of the Part and Corey Clipston, David Foley,

671
00:33:56,400 --> 00:34:00,120
Speaker 1: we're working on kind of trying to create well not

672
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: create take advantage of opportunities that have been created based

673
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: off of where we're at in the market cycle. Things

674
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: like that. I want to talk about ways that maybe

675
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 1: there's ways to get opportunities in the bitcoin space that

676
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 1: you're kind of thinking about or focusing on. Yeah, I

677
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: mean this last year mark, we've seen a tremendous amount

678
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: As you and I have talked about quite a bit,

679
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: we've seen a tremendous amount of damage done to the

680
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: cryptocurrency world because of market cycles, market cycles, and but

681
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 1: there was some there was some nefarious activity, there were

682
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 1: and there was bad or no risk management, and that's

683
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 1: bled into the bitcoin ecosystem just purely through contagion. Right, So,

684
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: whether it's in finance or payment solutions, or social apps

685
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: or wallets or nodes off whatever it in Lightning network,

686
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: whatever it may be. There are these startup companies that

687
00:34:52,680 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 1: are starting to build out all of these disruptive technologies

688
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: on off of that bitcoin based layer that have gotten

689
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 1: themselves into um into financial trouble. And they're called distressed companies.

690
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 1: And some of these are great companies, they just again

691
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: got over their handlebars and uh, and now they're in

692
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: need of cash. They're trying to raise their next round

693
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 1: of capital, whether it's a Series B or whatever it

694
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 1: may be. And or there's some distressed miners that are

695
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 1: publicly traded, some are privately traded. There's just a lot

696
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:29,240
Speaker 1: of opportunity in the space and there's there are ways

697
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 1: that we can and that's why we started this whole fund.

698
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: We literally started this Bitcoin Opportunity Fund in order to

699
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: not just uh, not just take advantage of these opportunities,

700
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: but they help these companies that we believe in that

701
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: that need capital and will be vital going forward. And

702
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: and that's it's just you're in that cycle right now,

703
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 1: and the timing is right. So yeah, you know, Um,

704
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 1: the saying is and you've all heard it. I mean

705
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: there's variations of it, by when there's blood in the street,

706
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: and um, you know, by when people are when people

707
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 1: are sell when people are greedy, by when people are fearful.

708
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: The problem is is, um, you know, when you see

709
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: that there's a Black Friday seal, you're willing to wait

710
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:09,719
Speaker 1: in line all night to go get that discount. Right,

711
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: people get trampled, literally, people get trampled and die trying

712
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: to get a discount. But yet when a TV. Yeah,

713
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 1: on a TV, right, But when financial assets go on sell,

714
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 1: people send to tend to be afraid. So um, think

715
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,359
Speaker 1: about that. If you're interested in learn any more about

716
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 1: the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, check out Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund.

717
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 1: You can check that out. You can request more information

718
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 1: if you want to check it out, But either way,

719
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: think about what bitcoin is going to do in this

720
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: type of environment of what I would call almost certainty

721
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,640
Speaker 1: when when the government, the FED, the CBO, the Treasury

722
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 1: tells us what is coming next, and that is lots

723
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: of money printing in dbasement and you better figure out

724
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: what type of lifeboat you want to be in when

725
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 1: this inflation tide comes to wipe everybody out. I know

726
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: which boat I'm in. I'm in the bitcoin boat. I'm

727
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 1: in the Bitcoin ecosystem boat. So check that out. Check

728
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,720
Speaker 1: out at James Lavish, follow him, check out his Informationist newsletter.

729
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 1: Of course, I am at one Mark Moss. If you

730
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 1: missed any of this, you'd better go listen to the

731
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 1: whole thing. You can check it out on the podcast

732
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: just search the Mark Moss Show on any of your

733
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 1: favorite podcast players. You can check it out on YouTube.

734
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 1: Also at the Market Disruptors Channel, and that's what we got.

735
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening today, Get on that lifeboat

736
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 1: till next time. Thanks for having me Mark