WEBVTT - Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we're gonna mostly

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<v Speaker 2>talk about a Sorry.

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<v Speaker 1>No, I'm laughing because you, Nate, you got this. Today

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<v Speaker 1>on the show, we're mostly talking.

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<v Speaker 2>About tariffs and the I think you can call it

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<v Speaker 2>now a crash that we've seen in the market since then,

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<v Speaker 2>although as we're recording this on Tuesday, the eighth markets

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<v Speaker 2>I believe are up there at least up in the

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<v Speaker 2>pre market trading. And we'll also ras Maria about what

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<v Speaker 2>happens when you support Duke in your bracket.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why I had started laughing at our introduction, because

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<v Speaker 1>I yeah, I knew it was coming. I knew it

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<v Speaker 1>was coming. Let's just get it out of the way, Nate.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's let's start with that. I lost. I was gonna say,

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<v Speaker 1>I graciously admit defeat, but no fucking way, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be gracious about it. Monty, and I challenge you

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<v Speaker 1>to a rematch for next year.

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<v Speaker 2>Accepted.

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<v Speaker 1>I was completely I mean, it was a route, it

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<v Speaker 1>was a route. I was rooting for Duke. Everyone, everyone

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<v Speaker 1>I rooted for lost but not only that, Nate, you

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<v Speaker 1>chose Florida out of spite and who won?

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<v Speaker 2>What can you say? I actually had money on Houston

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<v Speaker 2>last night, so Florida was just the icy on the cake.

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<v Speaker 2>But like, look, did you watch the game? It was

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<v Speaker 2>spectacularly it was funny, Shoddenfruda. If you're a Duke hater, yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>the golden boy, Cooper Flag will live with this for

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<v Speaker 2>the rest of his life. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>The Duke game, I was like, what's going on? I

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<v Speaker 1>had to text Monty. I was like, what has happened

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<v Speaker 1>right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Why?

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<v Speaker 1>Why is this happening?

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<v Speaker 2>I was down at the hard Rock Seminal casino. I

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<v Speaker 2>had just ended the day of a poker tournament and

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<v Speaker 2>got to watch it with a bunch of drunk for

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<v Speaker 2>Lauderdale Arie bros. Who also seem to be reading for Houston.

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<v Speaker 1>Sometimes that's the best way to watch games, right, both

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<v Speaker 1>both Duke and Florida, And like big games, there's an

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<v Speaker 1>energy watching them during poker tournaments. There really is because basically,

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<v Speaker 1>I think over half the room I think it's fair

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<v Speaker 1>to say, usually has money on the game.

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<v Speaker 2>So the is very hot. Yeah, by the way, the

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<v Speaker 2>tournament didn't go great. Other well, I mean it's hard

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<v Speaker 2>to like, it's hard to play poker when you're distracted

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<v Speaker 2>by big things that are happening. And so every moment

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<v Speaker 2>I'm playing. I cashed one K, and then the two

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<v Speaker 2>main tournaments that came for I didn't cash, which is normal,

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<v Speaker 2>but still it's like hard to play poker when you

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<v Speaker 2>feel like the world. Let me be careful about this, right,

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<v Speaker 2>this is not like of the magnitude of like the

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<v Speaker 2>start of the pandemic, for example, But we're gonna spend

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<v Speaker 2>the bulk of time talking about is a huge story.

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<v Speaker 2>It's like gonna be remembered as one of the events

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<v Speaker 2>at least in line with like the nineteen eighty seven

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<v Speaker 2>stock market crash I think. I mean, this is like

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<v Speaker 2>a fundamental change in the United States's relationship with the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of the world. Right, people now think a recession

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<v Speaker 2>is fifty percent or more likely, and that's and that's

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<v Speaker 2>a big deal.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a big deal. It's a huge shift. Congratulations on

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<v Speaker 1>cashing one tournament night.

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<v Speaker 2>You know I did. I will give myself credit for this.

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<v Speaker 2>I literally mean cashed. I was the first player in

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<v Speaker 2>the money. I literally played for thirty seconds after I

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<v Speaker 2>made the money, So that was that was ideal and

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<v Speaker 2>then uh, and then and then but meanwhile the economy

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<v Speaker 2>is falling apart, So let's talk about let's talk about

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<v Speaker 2>terrorist Mariya. This might be a little bit streaming of consciousness,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's a big story obviously of the of the week,

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<v Speaker 2>if not the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's a huge story. I mean as of now.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think we always try to be very careful

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<v Speaker 1>to say one we're taping, but with this story, I

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<v Speaker 1>think you have to be extra careful because there's so

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<v Speaker 1>much volatility, so much movement. So we are taping. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>on the West coast, Nate is on the East coast.

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<v Speaker 1>So for me, it's eight am on Tuesday, And as

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<v Speaker 1>of now, markets are down I think eighteen percent from

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<v Speaker 1>peak in February, right, So that's that's huge. And global

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<v Speaker 1>markets are down right now. We have tariffs across the board,

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<v Speaker 1>including on penguins, and China is threatening retaliatory tariffs and

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<v Speaker 1>we're saying, well, fuck you, China, We're gonna give even

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<v Speaker 1>more teriffs to China. And like it's just evolving into

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<v Speaker 1>this madness. And people who were supporting Trump, like very vocally,

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<v Speaker 1>even some of those voices have come out and said, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>whoa hold on a second, like the Bill Ackmans of

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<v Speaker 1>the world, right, who have been just like go go Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>or all of a sudden like whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa,

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening to the economy? What are you doing? Maybe

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<v Speaker 1>it's time to take a step back, slow down, take

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<v Speaker 1>a pause. And those voices actually have been so loud

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<v Speaker 1>that there was even a fake fake news yesterday where

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<v Speaker 1>Evan Reuter's ran a headline that market started trading on

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<v Speaker 1>that there was going to be a ninety day pause.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, a guy named whose last name is Bloomberg, like

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<v Speaker 2>Walter Bloomberg, like twet tweets and all like if your

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<v Speaker 2>name was like Johnny Reuter's or I am look this up.

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<v Speaker 2>The surname nyt like I don't know night or how

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<v Speaker 2>you pronounce it is apparently the rare Cambodian surname. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>So if you're the last name knit, right, you can

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<v Speaker 2>be like knit mit tariffs to be rescinded tomorrow and

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<v Speaker 2>then and then cause that major disruption in the stock market. Yeah, look,

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<v Speaker 2>there are parts of the center are funny. I always

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<v Speaker 2>believe in kind of keeping your wits about you, and

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, let me contextualize first, like these market swings,

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<v Speaker 2>so as tapping this, the SAB five hundred is up

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<v Speaker 2>two and a half percent today, so that reduces the

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<v Speaker 2>game from peak in early February or the loss to

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<v Speaker 2>about twenty percent from twenty three or whatever it was.

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<v Speaker 2>It's at least twenty three percent is the average tariff

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<v Speaker 2>right now that we're imposing on the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 2>But still a really bad swing, especially considering that, like

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<v Speaker 2>investors assume that Trump would be good for the market,

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<v Speaker 2>and they assume that he probably would implement some terriffs,

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<v Speaker 2>certainly on China, probably some ten percent dish tariffs across

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<v Speaker 2>the board, with lots of cronyism and loopholes. Right, but

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<v Speaker 2>this is like on top you know, markets have assumed

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<v Speaker 2>for a long time that Republicans are good for Actually

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<v Speaker 2>it's a little more complicate than that. Right in twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 2>the market thought overnight that Trump winting would be bad

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<v Speaker 2>for stocks, the reverse course, literally overnight. So like the

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<v Speaker 2>market after Trump one in twenty sixteen went from being

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<v Speaker 2>way down to way up in fact the next day.

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<v Speaker 2>But now Wall Street has completely lost confidence in Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>And as you mentioned, I mean Elon, who literally a

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<v Speaker 2>few days ago was pictured in a hat saying Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is right about everything, is now kind of publicly subtweeting Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>critiquing Trump advisors like Peter Navarro and reportedly corn To the

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<v Speaker 2>Washington Post is also working behind the scenes to try

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<v Speaker 2>to get Trump to reverses hera So credit credit to Elon, Right,

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<v Speaker 2>it changes a lot for him to see that shit's

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<v Speaker 2>going wrong. But like, but you know, if he's reversing

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<v Speaker 2>course and Bill Lackman is reversing course and like very

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<v Speaker 2>little elite support and the few like Silicon Valley VC

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<v Speaker 2>types who are defending Trump looked fucking ridiculous, right, You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I could name names if I wanted to, but you

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<v Speaker 2>guys are fucking idiots. That's the only only way to

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<v Speaker 2>put it. Anyway. How do you feel, Maria, Well, I

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<v Speaker 2>mean you check your investments you have yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, no, I mean that this is one

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<v Speaker 1>of those moments where you know, usually the the right

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<v Speaker 1>answers don't actively trade. Right, you're not you are not

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<v Speaker 1>a day trader, and that's I think true for for

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<v Speaker 1>most people. Right, if you're not a professional, just let

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<v Speaker 1>it ride right. Look for the long term, this is

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<v Speaker 1>really I hate using the word unprecedented, right, because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had major economic downturn moments like this, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think it is unprecedented, at least a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>experts are saying it is in the sense that it's

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<v Speaker 1>completely self cost. Right. There's no external thing that is

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<v Speaker 1>actually precipitating this market crash, which is what has happened

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<v Speaker 1>every other time, you know, during COVID nineteen eighty seven,

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<v Speaker 1>like all of these times, the seventies oil shocks, right,

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<v Speaker 1>all of these shocks were kind of huge global events

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<v Speaker 1>that ended up doing tremendous damage to the stock market

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<v Speaker 1>in the short term. This is something that doesn't didn't

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<v Speaker 1>need to happen, right, Like, this is something that is

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<v Speaker 1>entirely self cost. It's just Trump making this decision. And apparently,

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<v Speaker 1>according to some of his advisors who are speaking anonymously,

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<v Speaker 1>he is in his I don't give a fuck stage

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<v Speaker 1>where he's not listening to advisors. He's golfing, and he's saying,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what, this is what I want to do,

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<v Speaker 1>and this is what I'm going to do, and I

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<v Speaker 1>don't care if all of my closest advisors are telling me,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm taking the economy, which is a huge, huge shift

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<v Speaker 1>right from Trump Part one, right where he really cared

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<v Speaker 1>about the market and was really sensitive to what the

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<v Speaker 1>market was saying. And it's also a shift from what

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<v Speaker 1>we saw in the early days of his presidency in

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<v Speaker 1>Trump Part two, where you know, he was actually threatening

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs and then going back and we even had you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a Risky Business episode where we were talking about kind

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<v Speaker 1>of what kind of game theory is this right where

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<v Speaker 1>you where you where you threaten something and then people

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<v Speaker 1>give fake concessions that aren't really concessions and you're like, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>just kidding, Like I've asserted my dominance. Let's continue on.

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<v Speaker 1>And now he's like, you know what, No, Like, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to do this for real. I'm going to do

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<v Speaker 1>this big. I don't care about the math. Obviously, we

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<v Speaker 1>know Trump never likes to say he's wrong, so he's

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<v Speaker 1>not going to say he's wrong this time around. They're

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<v Speaker 1>people He's like, oh, they just need to acknowledge the mistake. No,

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<v Speaker 1>he's never going to do that. But it seems like

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<v Speaker 1>there's been some sort of fundamental shift in the way

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<v Speaker 1>he's thinking about the strategically where he's just like, fine,

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<v Speaker 1>I'll tank the economy, no paid, no gain, but we

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<v Speaker 1>don't even know what the gain is. No.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I'm reading this book on Joe Biden called Fight

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<v Speaker 2>by Jonathan Allen and Amy Parns. It's a new book

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<v Speaker 2>that's out. That's very a very good book about how

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<v Speaker 2>people all around Joe Biden saw how Biden was losing

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<v Speaker 2>his fastball and his curveball and his breaking pitch and

0:10:47.404 --> 0:10:49.444
<v Speaker 2>his change up and everything else, right, and he was

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<v Speaker 2>really not performing very well at all. But Democrats got

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<v Speaker 2>stuck in a position where he was you know, he

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<v Speaker 2>was going to be the nominee anyway. But the point

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<v Speaker 2>is that, like when you get old and Trump is

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<v Speaker 2>the same age, now somebody as Biden was at the

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<v Speaker 2>start of his first term, you get even more stubborn.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Can I be honest, Maria, you can. I

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<v Speaker 2>kind of miss Jared Kushner. I kind of miss.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not where I thought that sentence was gonna go.

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<v Speaker 2>I kind of miss having these more or less normal

0:11:24.644 --> 0:11:28.604
<v Speaker 2>Republicans right who who were close to Trump and trying

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<v Speaker 2>to steer them the digression and hey, you want to

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<v Speaker 2>win reelection, Hey you don't want to like undermine because

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<v Speaker 2>I think now, like all the other stuff that Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is trying to do, the cultural backlash and whatever else

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<v Speaker 2>right where. You know, I might agree with parts of

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<v Speaker 2>it and disgree with other parts of it, but like,

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<v Speaker 2>that's all gonna be jeopardized if people are like, you

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<v Speaker 2>won an election on inflation, and now you're tanking the economy,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly through by the way, people have this weird abstract

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<v Speaker 2>discussion online about like, okay, well, who has investments in

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<v Speaker 2>the stock market. Actually, by the way, about sixty percent

0:11:57.324 --> 0:12:00.004
<v Speaker 2>of people do have investments in the stock market, so

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<v Speaker 2>it's a pretty common thing. But also, like, you're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>about to make a bunch of shit much more expensive.

0:12:05.204 --> 0:12:08.044
<v Speaker 2>Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're

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<v Speaker 2>made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are

0:12:10.484 --> 0:12:14.244
<v Speaker 2>heavily taraffed. Right, you want to furnitu your home. A

0:12:14.284 --> 0:12:17.684
<v Speaker 2>lot of furniture is made abroad. You want to you know,

0:12:17.964 --> 0:12:20.284
<v Speaker 2>buy some yard, I mean all this stuff. You want

0:12:20.284 --> 0:12:23.364
<v Speaker 2>to buy avocados for your fucking burrito, right, Like all

0:12:23.404 --> 0:12:26.764
<v Speaker 2>this stuff comes from like foreign countries. I think actually

0:12:26.804 --> 0:12:29.044
<v Speaker 2>Canada and next come, now, have some of the more

0:12:29.164 --> 0:12:31.964
<v Speaker 2>exemptions in other countries. But like, it's gonna make stuff

0:12:32.244 --> 0:12:35.884
<v Speaker 2>notably more expensive to have people love the idea of

0:12:36.124 --> 0:12:40.804
<v Speaker 2>you love to have your nice American manufactured nikes, right, Well,

0:12:40.804 --> 0:12:44.244
<v Speaker 2>they're gonna cost a hundred bucks instead of one hundred bucks, right,

0:12:44.444 --> 0:12:46.844
<v Speaker 2>I can afford that, you know, I have a partner

0:12:46.844 --> 0:12:50.724
<v Speaker 2>who is a fan of nice shoes. Right. But, like,

0:12:50.804 --> 0:12:54.684
<v Speaker 2>this is gonna hit consumers hard. And although Silicon Valley

0:12:54.724 --> 0:12:57.684
<v Speaker 2>stocks are down more than the consensus, so are a

0:12:57.724 --> 0:13:01.404
<v Speaker 2>lot of consumer staples. It looks very recessionary. Booze and

0:13:01.404 --> 0:13:04.524
<v Speaker 2>tobacco stocks are up though, which is also a sign

0:13:04.564 --> 0:13:09.484
<v Speaker 2>of like despair. McDonald's is up, Taco bill.

0:13:09.644 --> 0:13:12.364
<v Speaker 1>Up right now, When you when you see that those

0:13:12.404 --> 0:13:15.324
<v Speaker 1>are the stocks that are up, you start being nervous.

0:13:15.324 --> 0:13:16.924
<v Speaker 1>And then when you see things like the price of

0:13:16.964 --> 0:13:19.764
<v Speaker 1>copper is down, right, Like that is a very good

0:13:19.844 --> 0:13:22.604
<v Speaker 1>marker of recession as well, because it means that demand

0:13:22.644 --> 0:13:25.244
<v Speaker 1>has is going is going to go down. You know,

0:13:25.284 --> 0:13:28.444
<v Speaker 1>we've also seen in the last week with the kind

0:13:28.444 --> 0:13:31.204
<v Speaker 1>of the FED conference and the FED announcements that like,

0:13:31.844 --> 0:13:34.284
<v Speaker 1>you know, the FED isn't a really tough spot as well, right,

0:13:34.844 --> 0:13:38.124
<v Speaker 1>because like what what do you do right when when

0:13:38.124 --> 0:13:41.604
<v Speaker 1>inflation is going to go up? And you know you

0:13:41.884 --> 0:13:45.284
<v Speaker 1>but you, but you've got this person in the White

0:13:45.324 --> 0:13:49.564
<v Speaker 1>House who's making these decisions about tariffs, where like what

0:13:49.644 --> 0:13:51.684
<v Speaker 1>do you do? It's like a rock and a hard place, right,

0:13:51.764 --> 0:13:55.044
<v Speaker 1>Like keep rates the same, lower them, raise them, Like

0:13:55.044 --> 0:13:57.804
<v Speaker 1>there's there's no good answer here, and the FED is

0:13:57.844 --> 0:14:01.204
<v Speaker 1>supposed to kind of come in and try to stabilize

0:14:01.244 --> 0:14:04.004
<v Speaker 1>things and try to calm the worries. And there's you know,

0:14:04.244 --> 0:14:06.244
<v Speaker 1>if when we're talking about the game theory, when we're

0:14:06.284 --> 0:14:08.524
<v Speaker 1>talking about like the long run and what is the

0:14:08.524 --> 0:14:11.924
<v Speaker 1>strategic thinking here? I don't know, right, Like this is

0:14:11.964 --> 0:14:15.124
<v Speaker 1>one of those where like there's no good choice, right,

0:14:15.204 --> 0:14:19.244
<v Speaker 1>like which box are we trying to get to while

0:14:19.284 --> 0:14:21.524
<v Speaker 1>the tariffs are at this height? Like I don't think

0:14:21.564 --> 0:14:23.204
<v Speaker 1>we're just in a part of a game tree that

0:14:23.284 --> 0:14:26.084
<v Speaker 1>like I don't know how to resolve it. Well, maybe

0:14:26.084 --> 0:14:29.124
<v Speaker 1>there's some brilliant economists out there who does. But all

0:14:29.124 --> 0:14:32.404
<v Speaker 1>the brilliant economists I've been reading have no idea how

0:14:32.404 --> 0:14:34.604
<v Speaker 1>to get out of this mess. If Trump does not

0:14:34.684 --> 0:14:35.404
<v Speaker 1>back down.

0:14:38.004 --> 0:14:50.804
<v Speaker 2>We'll be right back after this message. Yeah, Maria, I

0:14:50.844 --> 0:14:55.444
<v Speaker 2>think that we're in a real pickle, right, you know,

0:14:55.524 --> 0:14:58.004
<v Speaker 2>in part because like i mean, Trump claims this is

0:14:58.004 --> 0:15:03.844
<v Speaker 2>for negotiating leverage. And by the way, Zimbabwe did rescind

0:15:04.884 --> 0:15:07.724
<v Speaker 2>it's tariffs. It's relatively minor terriffs in the United States,

0:15:07.804 --> 0:15:09.604
<v Speaker 2>if we're starting at the back of the eye off

0:15:09.604 --> 0:15:12.484
<v Speaker 2>a bit and moving upward. But like, but there are

0:15:12.484 --> 0:15:15.484
<v Speaker 2>a few things here, what is that, Like this tariff

0:15:15.484 --> 0:15:19.404
<v Speaker 2>policy may literally have been implemented by an intern using

0:15:19.484 --> 0:15:23.804
<v Speaker 2>chat GPT. If you ask chat GPT or other large

0:15:23.884 --> 0:15:26.644
<v Speaker 2>language models, hey, come up with a quick formula to

0:15:27.124 --> 0:15:30.404
<v Speaker 2>determine tariff rates. Right, It'll sometimes just say, oh, let's

0:15:30.404 --> 0:15:32.684
<v Speaker 2>just look at the trade deficit. This is actually very stupid,

0:15:32.764 --> 0:15:35.564
<v Speaker 2>Like we have a big trade deficit with Vietnam because

0:15:35.604 --> 0:15:39.804
<v Speaker 2>they're a kind of lower middle class economy relative to

0:15:39.804 --> 0:15:43.564
<v Speaker 2>the rest of the world, where fairly productive about producing

0:15:44.244 --> 0:15:47.524
<v Speaker 2>toys and electronic equipment and you know, and certain types

0:15:47.524 --> 0:15:49.764
<v Speaker 2>of food stuffs, and there are things which we then import.

0:15:50.084 --> 0:15:52.404
<v Speaker 2>But the GDP per capita is I'm just gussing, like

0:15:52.444 --> 0:15:54.604
<v Speaker 2>four thousand bucks a year or something, and so like

0:15:55.364 --> 0:15:57.924
<v Speaker 2>not a big market for American made consumer goods. They're

0:15:57.924 --> 0:16:01.964
<v Speaker 2>also near China, Thailand, Japan, Korea, et cetera, where cheaper

0:16:01.964 --> 0:16:04.524
<v Speaker 2>to import, right and so like, so like you know,

0:16:05.084 --> 0:16:07.764
<v Speaker 2>that's a win win the unless you're concerned about unfairly

0:16:07.764 --> 0:16:10.564
<v Speaker 2>ebor practices, which is usually not the price of the right. Right,

0:16:11.524 --> 0:16:14.324
<v Speaker 2>that's a win win that they make stuff, We pay

0:16:14.324 --> 0:16:15.764
<v Speaker 2>for this stuff, We give them jobs. They do not

0:16:15.884 --> 0:16:17.804
<v Speaker 2>buy that much of our stuff. But that's okay, right,

0:16:17.844 --> 0:16:20.724
<v Speaker 2>I mean Trump literally doesn't realize that, like a trade

0:16:20.764 --> 0:16:23.764
<v Speaker 2>def it's not inherently a bad thing. So it's the

0:16:23.804 --> 0:16:26.604
<v Speaker 2>clumsiness of that rather than like if you had said

0:16:27.524 --> 0:16:31.724
<v Speaker 2>we're gonna have fifteen percent tariffs across the board, right,

0:16:32.244 --> 0:16:34.764
<v Speaker 2>the market would have reacted to that, but not so

0:16:34.844 --> 0:16:37.924
<v Speaker 2>negatively as these haphazard things. And by the way, the

0:16:38.004 --> 0:16:40.764
<v Speaker 2>fact that like this terraffs are these are going to

0:16:40.844 --> 0:16:44.164
<v Speaker 2>cause us so much pain, give us less leverage beyond

0:16:44.164 --> 0:16:47.164
<v Speaker 2>a certain point, right, because that it kind of becomes

0:16:47.164 --> 0:16:50.324
<v Speaker 2>a game of chicken where we have to like prove

0:16:50.644 --> 0:16:54.644
<v Speaker 2>that we have removed the steering wheel and now can't unflinched.

0:16:54.644 --> 0:16:57.684
<v Speaker 2>By the way, notwithstanding that they're contradictory rationales. So or

0:16:57.724 --> 0:17:00.244
<v Speaker 2>you'll see the Peter Navarro fucking idiot types I'm sorry,

0:17:00.284 --> 0:17:04.164
<v Speaker 2>Peter Navarro. You know, you'll see idiots like Peter Navarro

0:17:04.204 --> 0:17:06.124
<v Speaker 2>who are like, we actually need this for America's long

0:17:06.204 --> 0:17:08.124
<v Speaker 2>term growth or whatever else, and others say no, just

0:17:08.164 --> 0:17:11.284
<v Speaker 2>a negotiating ploy right, which are different. One is kind

0:17:11.284 --> 0:17:12.964
<v Speaker 2>of considering these are bad, but we want to actually

0:17:13.004 --> 0:17:14.884
<v Speaker 2>lower tariffs, and ones say no, tariffs are gonna be

0:17:14.924 --> 0:17:18.924
<v Speaker 2>want reshoring of American enterprise will through some kocamane scheme,

0:17:19.204 --> 0:17:21.084
<v Speaker 2>we will reduce deficits, even though if we go into

0:17:21.124 --> 0:17:25.284
<v Speaker 2>recessions that entails more spending and worsening the fiscal picture

0:17:25.644 --> 0:17:28.924
<v Speaker 2>long term. But it's contradictory and other countries to be like,

0:17:28.964 --> 0:17:33.484
<v Speaker 2>you know what, fuck you Donald Trump, right, we think

0:17:33.524 --> 0:17:36.724
<v Speaker 2>that eventually you'll be forced to blink by the market,

0:17:37.004 --> 0:17:41.404
<v Speaker 2>or eventually by Congress, which does is supposed to have

0:17:41.444 --> 0:17:46.684
<v Speaker 2>in the constitution authority for tariff policy specifically and for

0:17:46.924 --> 0:17:52.204
<v Speaker 2>funding the government generally. Now Congress also being idiots like

0:17:52.284 --> 0:17:54.204
<v Speaker 2>not quite in the same way that per Navarro is,

0:17:54.244 --> 0:17:57.724
<v Speaker 2>but like has delegated more and more authority to the executive.

0:17:57.724 --> 0:18:00.404
<v Speaker 2>It's occurred under both democratic and Republican administrations. Right, And

0:18:00.444 --> 0:18:03.044
<v Speaker 2>so there are lawsuits to stop Trump's tariffs. I'm not

0:18:03.044 --> 0:18:05.724
<v Speaker 2>a legal scholar. I don't know whether most of it

0:18:05.804 --> 0:18:08.684
<v Speaker 2>is legal and some of it violence principles. But Congress

0:18:08.724 --> 0:18:11.884
<v Speaker 2>does have the power to pass a lot saying stop this.

0:18:12.044 --> 0:18:16.844
<v Speaker 2>They will ultimately need two thirds majorities because Trump has

0:18:16.884 --> 0:18:20.524
<v Speaker 2>threatened and I think I believe would detail these threats.

0:18:20.564 --> 0:18:22.804
<v Speaker 2>They also need, by the way, to get on the

0:18:22.844 --> 0:18:26.804
<v Speaker 2>floor in the House, because the floor of the House

0:18:26.884 --> 0:18:31.284
<v Speaker 2>is more partisan. Right, the House Speaker Mike Johnson doesn't

0:18:31.324 --> 0:18:32.324
<v Speaker 2>want to put to me on the floor. You have

0:18:32.324 --> 0:18:35.044
<v Speaker 2>to do what file. It's called a discharge petition where

0:18:35.084 --> 0:18:37.564
<v Speaker 2>it takes thirty days. You get to get a bunch

0:18:37.564 --> 0:18:40.444
<v Speaker 2>of signatures, and then you're required to do that, right,

0:18:40.484 --> 0:18:44.804
<v Speaker 2>And that usually happens when the opposition party Democrats almost

0:18:44.804 --> 0:18:47.524
<v Speaker 2>have a majority in the House, but not quite, and

0:18:47.564 --> 0:18:51.084
<v Speaker 2>then a small number of sanaders or representers rather in

0:18:51.124 --> 0:18:53.564
<v Speaker 2>the governing party sign on. Then you're forced to like

0:18:53.604 --> 0:18:55.364
<v Speaker 2>actually take a measure to the floor. Right, and so

0:18:55.404 --> 0:18:58.284
<v Speaker 2>that would be at best like three days away. But yeah,

0:18:58.404 --> 0:19:02.844
<v Speaker 2>the economy goes into a recession, then I don't know, right.

0:19:02.844 --> 0:19:04.844
<v Speaker 2>People would say it's a high risk, high reward, bet,

0:19:04.844 --> 0:19:06.244
<v Speaker 2>I'm not sure what the reward is.

0:19:06.404 --> 0:19:08.564
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's that's kind of the other part of it,

0:19:08.604 --> 0:19:10.404
<v Speaker 1>like what is the reward? But I was gonna I

0:19:10.444 --> 0:19:12.364
<v Speaker 1>was going to ask what you think that because to

0:19:12.404 --> 0:19:14.724
<v Speaker 1>me it seems like a pipe dream, this whole congressional

0:19:14.804 --> 0:19:18.404
<v Speaker 1>action thing, Like, yes, technically Congress can do something, but

0:19:19.244 --> 0:19:22.644
<v Speaker 1>do you have any kind of thoughts on how likely

0:19:22.684 --> 0:19:24.484
<v Speaker 1>that actually is, because to me, it seems like there's

0:19:24.484 --> 0:19:26.284
<v Speaker 1>just no way they're going to get sixty seven right

0:19:26.524 --> 0:19:28.204
<v Speaker 1>in the Senate. There's no way that the House is

0:19:28.244 --> 0:19:29.924
<v Speaker 1>going to work. Like. It seems to me like I

0:19:29.924 --> 0:19:32.364
<v Speaker 1>don't know what has to happen for Congress to actually

0:19:32.404 --> 0:19:35.044
<v Speaker 1>like get its shit together and be like, no, this

0:19:35.204 --> 0:19:36.044
<v Speaker 1>is not going to stand.

0:19:36.964 --> 0:19:38.924
<v Speaker 2>I think the Senate is not. So You've already had

0:19:39.044 --> 0:19:43.524
<v Speaker 2>some Republicans sign on to different resolutions in the Senate

0:19:44.204 --> 0:19:49.524
<v Speaker 2>disapproving of Trump's tariffs, either generally or on canademics so specifically, right, Like,

0:19:49.644 --> 0:19:53.004
<v Speaker 2>I don't think sixty in the Senate, which would at

0:19:53.084 --> 0:19:55.364
<v Speaker 2>least pass a filibuster, is so hard. I'm not even

0:19:55.444 --> 0:20:00.004
<v Speaker 2>sure sixty seven is that hard. Right, It's the House.

0:20:00.044 --> 0:20:04.644
<v Speaker 2>It's the House where you know the first one third

0:20:04.804 --> 0:20:07.964
<v Speaker 2>of districts are really read because of jerrymandering and population

0:20:08.724 --> 0:20:11.924
<v Speaker 2>self sorting. Right, the House leader has not been on

0:20:12.004 --> 0:20:14.884
<v Speaker 2>board with this, although you know, you did have some

0:20:15.084 --> 0:20:19.684
<v Speaker 2>races last week, two special elections where Democrats outperformed Trump

0:20:19.764 --> 0:20:23.804
<v Speaker 2>numbers by about like seventeen points, right, the loss. But

0:20:23.884 --> 0:20:26.884
<v Speaker 2>these are districts that are extremely red in rural parts

0:20:26.884 --> 0:20:30.484
<v Speaker 2>of Florida. And so if that's true, then like, you know, look,

0:20:30.484 --> 0:20:33.884
<v Speaker 2>you'd be talking about like an epic route. I don't

0:20:33.884 --> 0:20:35.684
<v Speaker 2>want to put numbers on it and then get quoted

0:20:35.724 --> 0:20:38.924
<v Speaker 2>or misquoted later on. But like if you're like a

0:20:40.484 --> 0:20:43.444
<v Speaker 2>business deciding whether you know your restoration hardware, which I

0:20:43.484 --> 0:20:46.044
<v Speaker 2>mentioned because it's a bougie stock, but also the company

0:20:46.164 --> 0:20:49.164
<v Speaker 2>was hit hardest the first day after the tarif announcement, right,

0:20:49.364 --> 0:20:50.844
<v Speaker 2>their supply change is very big.

0:20:51.804 --> 0:20:54.004
<v Speaker 1>During the call, during.

0:20:53.804 --> 0:20:57.524
<v Speaker 2>The call, he also, you know, it's also like I said,

0:20:57.524 --> 0:20:59.124
<v Speaker 2>it's kind of bougie. You know, I don't really you

0:20:59.124 --> 0:21:02.284
<v Speaker 2>don't really need anything for restoration harder. Let's be honest, right,

0:21:02.284 --> 0:21:03.684
<v Speaker 2>it's not a store for necessities.

0:21:03.764 --> 0:21:04.804
<v Speaker 1>I have a couch from there.

0:21:06.444 --> 0:21:10.364
<v Speaker 2>You do good? I did. We can afford some rah furniture.

0:21:10.404 --> 0:21:14.004
<v Speaker 2>But like, if you're in a recession, those extensive couches,

0:21:14.444 --> 0:21:17.124
<v Speaker 2>you know, are as important as your Marlboro Reds and

0:21:17.204 --> 0:21:19.844
<v Speaker 2>bud Lights and McDonald's. And I'm somewhat joking, but like

0:21:19.884 --> 0:21:23.684
<v Speaker 2>you do see downshifting in consumer preferences from the upper

0:21:23.684 --> 0:21:25.604
<v Speaker 2>middle brow to the upper lower brown kind of everything

0:21:25.964 --> 0:21:28.724
<v Speaker 2>everything in between, and the luxury in for that matter too. Right,

0:21:29.844 --> 0:21:31.964
<v Speaker 2>So sorry, I lost between of foot what we're talking about.

0:21:31.964 --> 0:21:33.644
<v Speaker 1>We were talking about that. We were talking about the

0:21:33.684 --> 0:21:36.804
<v Speaker 1>house and how likely it is that we can actually

0:21:37.764 --> 0:21:39.524
<v Speaker 1>get something down there. You were saying that one third

0:21:39.564 --> 0:21:41.564
<v Speaker 1>of the districts are incredibly conservative.

0:21:42.044 --> 0:21:44.964
<v Speaker 2>If you're talking if your company planning for Okay, let's

0:21:45.084 --> 0:21:49.364
<v Speaker 2>let's reshore our supply chain restoration hardware. Let's find a

0:21:49.364 --> 0:21:54.124
<v Speaker 2>bunch of artisanal furniture makers in Knoxville, Tennessee, and Williamsburg,

0:21:54.164 --> 0:21:57.244
<v Speaker 2>Brooklyn in place like that, and long term will get

0:21:57.284 --> 0:21:58.684
<v Speaker 2>some costs down and it'll be good.

0:21:58.804 --> 0:21:59.004
<v Speaker 1>Right.

0:21:59.484 --> 0:22:02.364
<v Speaker 2>The problem is that like these terraffs could be rescinded

0:22:02.404 --> 0:22:06.924
<v Speaker 2>at any time, If not now, then in twenty twenty

0:22:06.964 --> 0:22:10.404
<v Speaker 2>six after the midterms. If not then then in twenty

0:22:10.484 --> 0:22:12.924
<v Speaker 2>twenty eight, when at this point I think I'd consider

0:22:13.564 --> 0:22:16.404
<v Speaker 2>Democrats a little bit over fifty percent to retake the

0:22:16.444 --> 0:22:20.124
<v Speaker 2>White House, right, So like, it's not like the sort

0:22:20.164 --> 0:22:23.044
<v Speaker 2>of long term stability that you would want. And in fact,

0:22:23.564 --> 0:22:25.484
<v Speaker 2>the public is against this policy and it might lead

0:22:25.524 --> 0:22:28.684
<v Speaker 2>to fewer tariffs in the very long run, but an

0:22:28.724 --> 0:22:33.644
<v Speaker 2>abdication of reliable American leadership and responsibility. So it's just

0:22:34.044 --> 0:22:36.524
<v Speaker 2>it's just kind of a mess.

0:22:36.884 --> 0:22:39.124
<v Speaker 1>It is a mess. We were also talking about kind

0:22:39.164 --> 0:22:41.644
<v Speaker 1>of what the long term is. Now. There's one theory

0:22:41.684 --> 0:22:46.444
<v Speaker 1>that I've seen that seems at least worthy of consideration.

0:22:46.524 --> 0:22:49.364
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to say, you know, plausible, but worthy

0:22:49.364 --> 0:22:53.564
<v Speaker 1>of discussion, and that's that the long term here is

0:22:53.764 --> 0:22:59.164
<v Speaker 1>just like an autocratic poaragram, right, that the idea is

0:22:59.244 --> 0:23:01.924
<v Speaker 1>like we tank everything and then we give concessions to

0:23:01.964 --> 0:23:03.204
<v Speaker 1>the people who are nice.

0:23:02.964 --> 0:23:06.004
<v Speaker 2>To think you've been nice. I don't buy this at all.

0:23:06.124 --> 0:23:06.844
<v Speaker 2>So I was wondering.

0:23:06.844 --> 0:23:09.964
<v Speaker 1>That's why I said, I'm not going to say plausible. Yeah,

0:23:10.004 --> 0:23:11.844
<v Speaker 1>that's why I phrased it the way I did.

0:23:12.244 --> 0:23:16.604
<v Speaker 2>I buy that Trump has strong autocratic tendencies. I buy

0:23:16.604 --> 0:23:19.644
<v Speaker 2>that some of the stuff he's doing on immigration and

0:23:19.684 --> 0:23:24.964
<v Speaker 2>free speeches, you know, autocratic. Right, And there was January sixth,

0:23:25.004 --> 0:23:27.364
<v Speaker 2>of course, right, I don't think this is a strategy

0:23:27.644 --> 0:23:30.244
<v Speaker 2>that you'd implement if you wanted to gain I mean,

0:23:30.244 --> 0:23:32.884
<v Speaker 2>I think this jeopardized the whole Trump agenda, right, and

0:23:32.884 --> 0:23:35.244
<v Speaker 2>this is at least going to have, like Congress habits

0:23:35.364 --> 0:23:37.884
<v Speaker 2>back up and the markets have its back up. And

0:23:37.924 --> 0:23:41.924
<v Speaker 2>you know, I've rarely seen everyone from maybe there are

0:23:41.924 --> 0:23:43.564
<v Speaker 2>a few people on the left that have eccentric views

0:23:43.564 --> 0:23:45.884
<v Speaker 2>about terrorists. They can go discuss some one blue sky.

0:23:45.964 --> 0:23:48.124
<v Speaker 2>That's fine with me, right, But like, you know, I

0:23:48.164 --> 0:23:51.644
<v Speaker 2>haven't seen the kind of what I call the Obama

0:23:52.004 --> 0:23:56.084
<v Speaker 2>base right, which is like everyone from the center right

0:23:56.124 --> 0:23:59.004
<v Speaker 2>who is pissed off at Bush to the left as

0:23:59.084 --> 0:24:03.404
<v Speaker 2>united against something as they are against Trump right now, right,

0:24:03.444 --> 0:24:06.164
<v Speaker 2>And like those are elites, those aren't rank and file voters.

0:24:06.244 --> 0:24:08.884
<v Speaker 2>Yet We've seen some decline in Trump's popularity ratings, but

0:24:09.004 --> 0:24:11.164
<v Speaker 2>like it will take some time for that to cycle through,

0:24:11.444 --> 0:24:14.244
<v Speaker 2>and maybe they can be averted if we somehow avoid

0:24:14.324 --> 0:24:20.804
<v Speaker 2>an economic downturn. But like this weakens Trump's powers a lot. Right,

0:24:20.804 --> 0:24:22.924
<v Speaker 2>people are willing to go along with a lot when

0:24:23.404 --> 0:24:27.844
<v Speaker 2>you're providing for them, right, and your checks are cashing

0:24:28.044 --> 0:24:30.964
<v Speaker 2>and goods are cheap and things like that, Right, even

0:24:31.004 --> 0:24:36.444
<v Speaker 2>in autocracies, economic crises can topple dictators, right. I think

0:24:36.564 --> 0:24:39.964
<v Speaker 2>the people who are worried about democratic backsliding are correct

0:24:39.964 --> 0:24:41.484
<v Speaker 2>to be worried about it. About I think the theory

0:24:41.524 --> 0:24:43.844
<v Speaker 2>is kind of the opposite of what this is likely

0:24:43.884 --> 0:24:44.124
<v Speaker 2>to do.

0:24:44.644 --> 0:24:47.124
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. No, I think that that is people trying to

0:24:48.484 --> 0:24:53.604
<v Speaker 1>impart a goal and kind of an intentionality here where

0:24:53.604 --> 0:24:57.844
<v Speaker 1>there's none right, where it's just like a kid being like,

0:24:58.004 --> 0:24:59.644
<v Speaker 1>I want to do this. I want to be I

0:24:59.684 --> 0:25:01.604
<v Speaker 1>want to be the bully, and I'm going to do

0:25:01.644 --> 0:25:03.724
<v Speaker 1>this and you can't stop me. You try to stop

0:25:03.764 --> 0:25:06.484
<v Speaker 1>me right now. So I tend to agree with you

0:25:06.644 --> 0:25:09.364
<v Speaker 1>that that it seems a little bit too far fast,

0:25:09.964 --> 0:25:14.004
<v Speaker 1>that this is one of those levers and we'll be

0:25:14.084 --> 0:25:27.564
<v Speaker 1>back right after this. I'd love to shift the lens

0:25:27.604 --> 0:25:31.764
<v Speaker 1>a little bit, so so Trump. I think we've talked

0:25:31.804 --> 0:25:34.404
<v Speaker 1>about the fact that this it's very difficult to know

0:25:34.404 --> 0:25:36.804
<v Speaker 1>what the long term game theory of this is and

0:25:36.964 --> 0:25:40.484
<v Speaker 1>probably none right that he's just taking the economy doing

0:25:40.524 --> 0:25:43.204
<v Speaker 1>this and kind of inflicting a lot of damage. But

0:25:43.364 --> 0:25:45.484
<v Speaker 1>what about kind of the the other end of it,

0:25:46.244 --> 0:25:49.644
<v Speaker 1>Us as consumers or people who actually have power talked

0:25:49.644 --> 0:25:53.564
<v Speaker 1>about what Congress can do. But in this case, like obviously,

0:25:53.844 --> 0:25:55.804
<v Speaker 1>you never, you know, to take a poker analogy, you

0:25:55.804 --> 0:25:58.204
<v Speaker 1>never want to make decisions when you're tilted right, when

0:25:58.244 --> 0:26:01.244
<v Speaker 1>you're kind of when you're really upset, when you're suffering

0:26:01.284 --> 0:26:04.964
<v Speaker 1>big losses. You know, if you're looking at your portfolio

0:26:05.044 --> 0:26:08.564
<v Speaker 1>going down downtown, you know, these are things that are like,

0:26:08.964 --> 0:26:10.884
<v Speaker 1>you know, you've lost a big poker hand, your your

0:26:10.924 --> 0:26:13.964
<v Speaker 1>chips are dwindling, and that's not usually the time to

0:26:14.004 --> 0:26:18.084
<v Speaker 1>make big swings and to try to think logically. But

0:26:19.044 --> 0:26:22.724
<v Speaker 1>in this particular case, like this is one of those

0:26:22.724 --> 0:26:25.604
<v Speaker 1>things where not panicking and just kind of also sitting

0:26:25.644 --> 0:26:28.244
<v Speaker 1>back down and just letting it all play out might

0:26:28.284 --> 0:26:32.804
<v Speaker 1>not be the right strategy either, right, they kind of

0:26:32.844 --> 0:26:36.964
<v Speaker 1>don't just don't just do something. Stand there types of things.

0:26:37.204 --> 0:26:39.164
<v Speaker 1>But how do we you know, how do we kind

0:26:39.164 --> 0:26:43.284
<v Speaker 1>of square that circle? And how do we react without

0:26:43.364 --> 0:26:47.204
<v Speaker 1>tilting right, without overreacting? How do we try to navigate

0:26:47.244 --> 0:26:50.564
<v Speaker 1>this environment where there's just extreme uncertainty? And as I

0:26:50.564 --> 0:26:52.764
<v Speaker 1>think you're making a really good point when you said,

0:26:52.804 --> 0:26:55.844
<v Speaker 1>like we don't know, right if we knew for with

0:26:55.924 --> 0:26:58.124
<v Speaker 1>one hundred percent certainty, these tariffs are going to stay

0:26:58.124 --> 0:27:00.444
<v Speaker 1>for the next two years at least. Okay, then you

0:27:00.484 --> 0:27:02.484
<v Speaker 1>can make decisions in that context. But we don't know

0:27:02.964 --> 0:27:05.084
<v Speaker 1>right Like as of now, we know that Trump says

0:27:05.124 --> 0:27:07.284
<v Speaker 1>he's not backing down, but we don't actually know what's

0:27:07.284 --> 0:27:09.164
<v Speaker 1>going to happen. We don't know what the reactions are

0:27:09.164 --> 0:27:11.524
<v Speaker 1>going to be. We see certain signs, we see Europe

0:27:11.564 --> 0:27:13.844
<v Speaker 1>banding together, you know, we see the rest of the

0:27:13.844 --> 0:27:16.084
<v Speaker 1>world actually trying to figure out what do we do now?

0:27:16.924 --> 0:27:19.244
<v Speaker 1>But how do you think about it? Right? How do

0:27:19.284 --> 0:27:21.204
<v Speaker 1>you think about it when you're trying to make your

0:27:21.244 --> 0:27:23.244
<v Speaker 1>own decisions and try to be a good player as

0:27:23.244 --> 0:27:24.564
<v Speaker 1>opposed to a tilted player.

0:27:25.764 --> 0:27:28.684
<v Speaker 2>Practice your Canadian accents that when you travel to Vancouver

0:27:28.804 --> 0:27:31.964
<v Speaker 2>or whatever. Oh sorry, they don't think you're an American.

0:27:32.084 --> 0:27:33.004
<v Speaker 2>I guess it's part of it.

0:27:34.004 --> 0:27:36.644
<v Speaker 1>I can start my a's at the end of sentences.

0:27:37.204 --> 0:27:40.724
<v Speaker 2>No, I think you know. Look, if you're a business

0:27:40.724 --> 0:27:43.124
<v Speaker 2>that relies on a heavily domestic supply chain, I guess

0:27:43.164 --> 0:27:46.724
<v Speaker 2>you're somewhat okay. You know, Goodyear Tire because they're very domestic,

0:27:47.484 --> 0:27:49.764
<v Speaker 2>has seen their stock price too well, but also because

0:27:50.244 --> 0:27:52.564
<v Speaker 2>people replace their tires a Good Year when they're not

0:27:52.564 --> 0:27:55.164
<v Speaker 2>replacing their cars, right and so like, even like the

0:27:55.204 --> 0:27:59.644
<v Speaker 2>bullish cases are barish and like, you know, it's very

0:28:00.724 --> 0:28:02.884
<v Speaker 2>very broad based. Yeah, I don't know if they are

0:28:03.084 --> 0:28:10.084
<v Speaker 2>good protections. I mean, you know, look, sometimes in a

0:28:10.684 --> 0:28:15.924
<v Speaker 2>recession things become cheaper at least I mean, it might

0:28:16.044 --> 0:28:19.764
<v Speaker 2>not be a terrible time in X months to look

0:28:19.804 --> 0:28:23.044
<v Speaker 2>at housing if you don't own well, because housing is

0:28:23.084 --> 0:28:25.404
<v Speaker 2>something where people are it's cyclical and like people are

0:28:26.804 --> 0:28:29.884
<v Speaker 2>you know, really reluctant to make like big ticket purchases

0:28:29.884 --> 0:28:33.684
<v Speaker 2>and like a downturn and you know, should not be

0:28:33.764 --> 0:28:37.804
<v Speaker 2>substantially affected by foreign goods, right. I mean, I'm sure

0:28:37.804 --> 0:28:41.204
<v Speaker 2>you're importing some building materials from abroad, but like you know,

0:28:41.804 --> 0:28:44.644
<v Speaker 2>most lumber we're cutting down right here in the United States, Maria,

0:28:45.644 --> 0:28:48.684
<v Speaker 2>so like, But apart from that, I mean, I think

0:28:48.724 --> 0:28:53.724
<v Speaker 2>you're like a little bit defenseless, apart from like having

0:28:53.764 --> 0:28:57.004
<v Speaker 2>to reason with yourself about like, oh am I a

0:28:57.044 --> 0:29:02.084
<v Speaker 2>person who is annoyed because this cuts into my retirement savings.

0:29:02.084 --> 0:29:04.004
<v Speaker 2>But I basically can live my life as I want to.

0:29:04.164 --> 0:29:06.524
<v Speaker 2>Or if you're someone where like it kind of has

0:29:06.844 --> 0:29:09.804
<v Speaker 2>causes a threat at short term time horizon is right,

0:29:09.844 --> 0:29:13.844
<v Speaker 2>if you're a small business owner that relies on imported

0:29:13.924 --> 0:29:17.524
<v Speaker 2>goods of different kinds, and or middle class customers who

0:29:17.564 --> 0:29:20.484
<v Speaker 2>are seeing their pocket books pinched. Then like, it's not

0:29:21.004 --> 0:29:24.004
<v Speaker 2>it's not great right now, right, I mean, probably should

0:29:24.004 --> 0:29:27.164
<v Speaker 2>shift you to having more of a long term focus,

0:29:27.164 --> 0:29:28.884
<v Speaker 2>I guess. But the long term provides a lot of

0:29:29.004 --> 0:29:29.804
<v Speaker 2>uncertainty too.

0:29:30.404 --> 0:29:32.524
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well, even some you know, I was actually looking

0:29:32.604 --> 0:29:34.844
<v Speaker 1>at some supply chains because I was very curious about this,

0:29:35.044 --> 0:29:38.764
<v Speaker 1>and see, even some domestic seeming products actually have components

0:29:38.804 --> 0:29:42.204
<v Speaker 1>that that you wouldn't think about that are imported. Like

0:29:42.644 --> 0:29:46.444
<v Speaker 1>some domestic water have plastic manufacturers for their water bottles

0:29:46.764 --> 0:29:49.364
<v Speaker 1>that are not in the United States. So even things

0:29:49.364 --> 0:29:51.724
<v Speaker 1>that are you know, good old American water, like good

0:29:51.724 --> 0:29:56.084
<v Speaker 1>old American this, the supply chains are incredibly complicated. And

0:29:56.564 --> 0:30:00.004
<v Speaker 1>you know, the people saying that, oh, well, bring manufacturing

0:30:00.044 --> 0:30:01.604
<v Speaker 1>to the US, I don't think they realize what that

0:30:01.644 --> 0:30:05.404
<v Speaker 1>actually means, right, Like, there's a reason that that manufacturing

0:30:05.644 --> 0:30:08.164
<v Speaker 1>has shifted. I don't think people want a factory in

0:30:08.204 --> 0:30:10.524
<v Speaker 1>their backyard. I don't think people want to be working

0:30:10.564 --> 0:30:13.764
<v Speaker 1>a lot of those factory jobs. I mean, I don't

0:30:13.804 --> 0:30:17.284
<v Speaker 1>think that those supply chains, and even if all those

0:30:17.284 --> 0:30:21.444
<v Speaker 1>things are like, yes, absolutely, let's change the supply chains.

0:30:21.644 --> 0:30:24.844
<v Speaker 1>How long does that take? Right, like in the immediate term?

0:30:24.924 --> 0:30:27.404
<v Speaker 1>Like that that is not that is not something that

0:30:27.444 --> 0:30:31.164
<v Speaker 1>we can do right away. So as individuals, like we're

0:30:31.324 --> 0:30:35.284
<v Speaker 1>relatively powerless, not powerless, but we just there is no

0:30:35.404 --> 0:30:37.364
<v Speaker 1>good advice in the sense that we don't know what's

0:30:37.364 --> 0:30:39.844
<v Speaker 1>going to happen. Do you think that there are people

0:30:40.084 --> 0:30:42.644
<v Speaker 1>who can do something right? Like, who are the people

0:30:42.644 --> 0:30:45.804
<v Speaker 1>who might be able to influence something other than Elon Musk?

0:30:45.884 --> 0:30:49.484
<v Speaker 1>Maybe unless kind of this result in Elon Musk being

0:30:49.524 --> 0:30:53.644
<v Speaker 1>thrust out of the inner circle because he's subtweeting Trump

0:30:53.804 --> 0:30:56.164
<v Speaker 1>and talking about how he thinks that we should have

0:30:56.204 --> 0:30:59.604
<v Speaker 1>free trade. So who are people who might actually make

0:30:59.644 --> 0:31:02.804
<v Speaker 1>a difference where they're decision making right now actually matters.

0:31:03.764 --> 0:31:05.644
<v Speaker 2>The one hundred members of the United States Senate and

0:31:05.684 --> 0:31:07.924
<v Speaker 2>the fourhund and threety five members of the United States House.

0:31:07.964 --> 0:31:10.804
<v Speaker 2>I mean, or but I always am a little bit

0:31:10.884 --> 0:31:15.084
<v Speaker 2>reluctant to like have calls to activism. But you know, look,

0:31:15.124 --> 0:31:21.204
<v Speaker 2>if you're a person, whatever your political orientation, sitting in

0:31:20.964 --> 0:31:25.484
<v Speaker 2>a Senate or House seat where there's a relatively safe

0:31:25.484 --> 0:31:28.004
<v Speaker 2>Republican member or for the matter, there's a Democrat who's

0:31:28.004 --> 0:31:31.164
<v Speaker 2>being a little you know, oh terrorist, maybe it's good.

0:31:31.404 --> 0:31:33.764
<v Speaker 2>I don't know, I don't know. You know, call your

0:31:33.804 --> 0:31:37.084
<v Speaker 2>fucking congress person, right and say, like, especially if you're

0:31:37.084 --> 0:31:40.124
<v Speaker 2>somebody who's donated, or if you're somebody who runs a

0:31:40.164 --> 0:31:42.844
<v Speaker 2>small business in that district, say this is gonna fuck

0:31:42.924 --> 0:31:44.364
<v Speaker 2>me up. Where this is not going to help the

0:31:44.844 --> 0:31:46.724
<v Speaker 2>working class, right, this is not going to help the

0:31:46.804 --> 0:31:51.804
<v Speaker 2>middle income consumer. Yeah, I mean, let you know, let

0:31:51.844 --> 0:31:54.404
<v Speaker 2>Congress know. To be honest, I think they probably do

0:31:54.964 --> 0:31:57.884
<v Speaker 2>know that, frankly, but like because they are aware of

0:31:57.884 --> 0:31:59.524
<v Speaker 2>what's going on in their district and this is not

0:31:59.684 --> 0:32:03.884
<v Speaker 2>some abstract cultural warfight. But Congress is responsive to to

0:32:04.484 --> 0:32:06.524
<v Speaker 2>don't call somebody not in your district, right, Yeah, pick

0:32:06.604 --> 0:32:09.404
<v Speaker 2>up the phone with the person who's who represents you

0:32:09.804 --> 0:32:11.844
<v Speaker 2>and let them know how you feel.

0:32:12.364 --> 0:32:14.084
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. No, I think this is this is definitely a

0:32:14.084 --> 0:32:16.884
<v Speaker 1>moment for a call to action. There have been others,

0:32:16.884 --> 0:32:18.844
<v Speaker 1>but this is one where it could actually be effective.

0:32:19.164 --> 0:32:19.284
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:32:19.364 --> 0:32:22.444
<v Speaker 1>It's it's not particularly effective to you know, call your

0:32:22.644 --> 0:32:28.604
<v Speaker 1>Republican Senate or a representative, like if you're a Democrat

0:32:28.644 --> 0:32:30.684
<v Speaker 1>and it's a democratic talking point, but something like this,

0:32:30.844 --> 0:32:33.804
<v Speaker 1>like I actually think that this could really be effective

0:32:33.884 --> 0:32:37.164
<v Speaker 1>because you know, they they worry, they need to be

0:32:37.764 --> 0:32:40.844
<v Speaker 1>they need to be supported within their districts as well.

0:32:41.164 --> 0:32:43.364
<v Speaker 1>And this is one moment where I think that across

0:32:43.364 --> 0:32:48.084
<v Speaker 1>the board, we're seeing people, you know, people really not happy,

0:32:48.444 --> 0:32:50.364
<v Speaker 1>and this is I think this is also actually an

0:32:50.364 --> 0:32:54.524
<v Speaker 1>interesting opportunity to try to reach kind of the everyman

0:32:54.724 --> 0:32:57.244
<v Speaker 1>and say, look, you know, Trump isn't working for you,

0:32:57.324 --> 0:33:00.284
<v Speaker 1>because this is something where I think you can actually

0:33:00.324 --> 0:33:04.124
<v Speaker 1>reach a lot of people across the divide and say, hey, look, no,

0:33:04.284 --> 0:33:07.484
<v Speaker 1>this is not this is not good for your average American.

0:33:07.604 --> 0:33:12.684
<v Speaker 1>This is not good for like bottom line of Joe

0:33:12.884 --> 0:33:18.684
<v Speaker 1>from from where from Where's Joe from Pennsylvania? Okay, Joe

0:33:18.724 --> 0:33:22.524
<v Speaker 1>from Pennsylvania. That this is not good for his for

0:33:22.604 --> 0:33:25.444
<v Speaker 1>his pocket for his bottom line, for his retirement, for

0:33:25.524 --> 0:33:28.004
<v Speaker 1>his ability to buy food, that that this is just

0:33:28.084 --> 0:33:30.324
<v Speaker 1>not good all around. And so that might be one

0:33:30.404 --> 0:33:34.084
<v Speaker 1>silver lining if people actually do finally mobilize and get

0:33:34.164 --> 0:33:36.204
<v Speaker 1>Congress to get off their ass and do something and

0:33:36.244 --> 0:33:39.244
<v Speaker 1>stand up to Trump and say, look, these tariffs are

0:33:39.284 --> 0:33:41.244
<v Speaker 1>not good for the country and not good for the

0:33:41.284 --> 0:33:44.044
<v Speaker 1>global economy. And if we want America first. You know,

0:33:44.124 --> 0:33:45.844
<v Speaker 1>you don't want you don't want to have to have

0:33:45.924 --> 0:33:48.924
<v Speaker 1>America alone and everyone else against us.

0:33:50.124 --> 0:33:51.644
<v Speaker 2>Marie, I think we need to wrap this up because

0:33:51.644 --> 0:33:55.324
<v Speaker 2>I literally have a train to catch on going to Philadelphia.

0:33:55.524 --> 0:33:57.564
<v Speaker 1>Are you going to Philadelphia for poker night?

0:33:58.324 --> 0:34:02.524
<v Speaker 2>Not for poker, no poker, for an event at of Pennsylvania.

0:34:02.604 --> 0:34:04.844
<v Speaker 1>Okay, we'll have a wonderful event, and if you want

0:34:04.884 --> 0:34:07.244
<v Speaker 1>to join me in Philadelphia in two weeks, I'll be

0:34:07.284 --> 0:34:11.284
<v Speaker 1>going there for poker. For the poker so.

0:34:10.284 --> 0:34:13.604
<v Speaker 2>See if the partner gives poker permission. We'll see about that.

0:34:13.844 --> 0:34:15.724
<v Speaker 2>The series is coming up, which I intend to spend

0:34:16.084 --> 0:34:19.124
<v Speaker 2>a fair bit of time at, so we'll see maybe.

0:34:19.244 --> 0:34:21.404
<v Speaker 1>All right, well, well that sounds good. Have a very

0:34:21.444 --> 0:34:23.924
<v Speaker 1>safe trip to Philadelphia, and I hope that we'll have

0:34:23.964 --> 0:34:26.924
<v Speaker 1>better news for our listeners next week when it comes

0:34:26.964 --> 0:34:29.004
<v Speaker 1>to the markets. But at this point hope doesn't get

0:34:29.084 --> 0:34:35.884
<v Speaker 1>us very far. Let us know what you think of

0:34:35.924 --> 0:34:38.924
<v Speaker 1>the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business at

0:34:38.924 --> 0:34:42.044
<v Speaker 1>Pushkin dot fm. And by the way, if you're a

0:34:42.084 --> 0:34:45.084
<v Speaker 1>Pushkin Plus subscriber, we have some bonus content for you.

0:34:45.564 --> 0:34:48.684
<v Speaker 1>We'll be answering a listener question each week that's coming

0:34:48.764 --> 0:34:49.924
<v Speaker 1>up right after the credits.

0:34:50.404 --> 0:34:53.644
<v Speaker 2>And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for

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<v Speaker 2>You get access to all that premium content and ad

0:34:59.124 --> 0:35:01.964
<v Speaker 2>for listening across at Pushkin's entire network of shows.

0:35:02.324 --> 0:35:05.884
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.

0:35:05.244 --> 0:35:07.604
<v Speaker 2>And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co

0:35:07.684 --> 0:35:11.324
<v Speaker 2>production of Pushkin Industries and Heart and Media. This episode

0:35:11.364 --> 0:35:14.604
<v Speaker 2>was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel

0:35:14.684 --> 0:35:18.044
<v Speaker 2>Hunter Chang. Sally Helm is our editor, and our executive

0:35:18.084 --> 0:35:21.004
<v Speaker 2>producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.

0:35:21.484 --> 0:35:23.924
<v Speaker 1>If you like this show, please rate and review us

0:35:23.924 --> 0:35:26.284
<v Speaker 1>so other people can find us too. Thanks so much

0:35:26.284 --> 0:35:26.804
<v Speaker 1>for tuning in.