1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,604 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,644 --> 00:00:30,164 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and. 3 00:00:30,044 --> 00:00:33,844 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. Today on the show, we're gonna mostly 4 00:00:33,844 --> 00:00:38,684 Speaker 2: talk about a Sorry. 5 00:00:37,284 --> 00:00:41,084 Speaker 1: No, I'm laughing because you, Nate, you got this. Today 6 00:00:41,124 --> 00:00:42,804 Speaker 1: on the show, we're mostly talking. 7 00:00:42,524 --> 00:00:46,884 Speaker 2: About tariffs and the I think you can call it 8 00:00:46,924 --> 00:00:49,924 Speaker 2: now a crash that we've seen in the market since then, 9 00:00:49,964 --> 00:00:54,324 Speaker 2: although as we're recording this on Tuesday, the eighth markets 10 00:00:54,324 --> 00:00:56,124 Speaker 2: I believe are up there at least up in the 11 00:00:56,124 --> 00:01:01,004 Speaker 2: pre market trading. And we'll also ras Maria about what 12 00:01:01,204 --> 00:01:04,844 Speaker 2: happens when you support Duke in your bracket. 13 00:01:06,084 --> 00:01:09,124 Speaker 1: That's why I had started laughing at our introduction, because 14 00:01:09,164 --> 00:01:12,724 Speaker 1: I yeah, I knew it was coming. I knew it 15 00:01:12,764 --> 00:01:14,924 Speaker 1: was coming. Let's just get it out of the way, Nate. 16 00:01:15,044 --> 00:01:22,364 Speaker 1: Let's let's start with that. I lost. I was gonna say, 17 00:01:22,364 --> 00:01:25,164 Speaker 1: I graciously admit defeat, but no fucking way, I'm not 18 00:01:25,164 --> 00:01:27,564 Speaker 1: gonna be gracious about it. Monty, and I challenge you 19 00:01:27,604 --> 00:01:29,164 Speaker 1: to a rematch for next year. 20 00:01:30,244 --> 00:01:30,804 Speaker 2: Accepted. 21 00:01:31,204 --> 00:01:33,964 Speaker 1: I was completely I mean, it was a route, it 22 00:01:34,004 --> 00:01:37,604 Speaker 1: was a route. I was rooting for Duke. Everyone, everyone 23 00:01:37,644 --> 00:01:42,124 Speaker 1: I rooted for lost but not only that, Nate, you 24 00:01:42,284 --> 00:01:44,924 Speaker 1: chose Florida out of spite and who won? 25 00:01:46,564 --> 00:01:48,684 Speaker 2: What can you say? I actually had money on Houston 26 00:01:48,764 --> 00:01:52,284 Speaker 2: last night, so Florida was just the icy on the cake. 27 00:01:52,364 --> 00:01:54,724 Speaker 2: But like, look, did you watch the game? It was 28 00:01:54,764 --> 00:02:00,604 Speaker 2: spectacularly it was funny, Shoddenfruda. If you're a Duke hater, yeah, 29 00:02:00,724 --> 00:02:04,244 Speaker 2: the golden boy, Cooper Flag will live with this for 30 00:02:04,284 --> 00:02:05,484 Speaker 2: the rest of his life. Yeah. 31 00:02:05,524 --> 00:02:07,404 Speaker 1: The Duke game, I was like, what's going on? I 32 00:02:07,404 --> 00:02:09,404 Speaker 1: had to text Monty. I was like, what has happened 33 00:02:09,644 --> 00:02:10,084 Speaker 1: right now? 34 00:02:10,364 --> 00:02:10,644 Speaker 2: Why? 35 00:02:10,724 --> 00:02:11,964 Speaker 1: Why is this happening? 36 00:02:13,364 --> 00:02:15,764 Speaker 2: I was down at the hard Rock Seminal casino. I 37 00:02:15,804 --> 00:02:19,204 Speaker 2: had just ended the day of a poker tournament and 38 00:02:19,404 --> 00:02:22,524 Speaker 2: got to watch it with a bunch of drunk for 39 00:02:22,724 --> 00:02:26,964 Speaker 2: Lauderdale Arie bros. Who also seem to be reading for Houston. 40 00:02:27,204 --> 00:02:30,084 Speaker 1: Sometimes that's the best way to watch games, right, both 41 00:02:30,204 --> 00:02:33,484 Speaker 1: both Duke and Florida, And like big games, there's an 42 00:02:33,604 --> 00:02:37,884 Speaker 1: energy watching them during poker tournaments. There really is because basically, 43 00:02:37,924 --> 00:02:39,644 Speaker 1: I think over half the room I think it's fair 44 00:02:39,684 --> 00:02:41,164 Speaker 1: to say, usually has money on the game. 45 00:02:41,964 --> 00:02:45,124 Speaker 2: So the is very hot. Yeah, by the way, the 46 00:02:45,164 --> 00:02:47,604 Speaker 2: tournament didn't go great. Other well, I mean it's hard 47 00:02:47,644 --> 00:02:51,764 Speaker 2: to like, it's hard to play poker when you're distracted 48 00:02:51,844 --> 00:02:54,324 Speaker 2: by big things that are happening. And so every moment 49 00:02:54,404 --> 00:02:57,444 Speaker 2: I'm playing. I cashed one K, and then the two 50 00:02:57,484 --> 00:03:00,324 Speaker 2: main tournaments that came for I didn't cash, which is normal, 51 00:03:00,404 --> 00:03:02,524 Speaker 2: but still it's like hard to play poker when you 52 00:03:02,564 --> 00:03:04,764 Speaker 2: feel like the world. Let me be careful about this, right, 53 00:03:04,804 --> 00:03:07,564 Speaker 2: this is not like of the magnitude of like the 54 00:03:07,564 --> 00:03:10,564 Speaker 2: start of the pandemic, for example, But we're gonna spend 55 00:03:10,564 --> 00:03:13,284 Speaker 2: the bulk of time talking about is a huge story. 56 00:03:13,364 --> 00:03:16,564 Speaker 2: It's like gonna be remembered as one of the events 57 00:03:16,604 --> 00:03:18,884 Speaker 2: at least in line with like the nineteen eighty seven 58 00:03:19,444 --> 00:03:21,484 Speaker 2: stock market crash I think. I mean, this is like 59 00:03:21,964 --> 00:03:26,284 Speaker 2: a fundamental change in the United States's relationship with the 60 00:03:26,284 --> 00:03:29,444 Speaker 2: rest of the world. Right, people now think a recession 61 00:03:29,564 --> 00:03:32,924 Speaker 2: is fifty percent or more likely, and that's and that's 62 00:03:32,964 --> 00:03:33,484 Speaker 2: a big deal. 63 00:03:34,004 --> 00:03:37,004 Speaker 1: It's a big deal. It's a huge shift. Congratulations on 64 00:03:37,084 --> 00:03:38,604 Speaker 1: cashing one tournament night. 65 00:03:39,204 --> 00:03:41,204 Speaker 2: You know I did. I will give myself credit for this. 66 00:03:41,444 --> 00:03:45,124 Speaker 2: I literally mean cashed. I was the first player in 67 00:03:45,164 --> 00:03:48,444 Speaker 2: the money. I literally played for thirty seconds after I 68 00:03:48,444 --> 00:03:50,604 Speaker 2: made the money, So that was that was ideal and 69 00:03:50,684 --> 00:03:53,764 Speaker 2: then uh, and then and then but meanwhile the economy 70 00:03:53,804 --> 00:03:55,844 Speaker 2: is falling apart, So let's talk about let's talk about 71 00:03:55,924 --> 00:03:58,804 Speaker 2: terrorist Mariya. This might be a little bit streaming of consciousness, 72 00:03:58,844 --> 00:04:01,844 Speaker 2: but it's a big story obviously of the of the week, 73 00:04:01,884 --> 00:04:02,604 Speaker 2: if not the year. 74 00:04:02,844 --> 00:04:06,004 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a huge story. I mean as of now. 75 00:04:06,084 --> 00:04:08,804 Speaker 1: So I think we always try to be very careful 76 00:04:08,804 --> 00:04:10,644 Speaker 1: to say one we're taping, but with this story, I 77 00:04:10,684 --> 00:04:13,284 Speaker 1: think you have to be extra careful because there's so 78 00:04:13,444 --> 00:04:17,084 Speaker 1: much volatility, so much movement. So we are taping. I'm 79 00:04:17,124 --> 00:04:19,284 Speaker 1: on the West coast, Nate is on the East coast. 80 00:04:19,324 --> 00:04:23,764 Speaker 1: So for me, it's eight am on Tuesday, And as 81 00:04:23,844 --> 00:04:27,564 Speaker 1: of now, markets are down I think eighteen percent from 82 00:04:27,804 --> 00:04:32,684 Speaker 1: peak in February, right, So that's that's huge. And global 83 00:04:32,724 --> 00:04:36,844 Speaker 1: markets are down right now. We have tariffs across the board, 84 00:04:36,884 --> 00:04:41,764 Speaker 1: including on penguins, and China is threatening retaliatory tariffs and 85 00:04:41,804 --> 00:04:44,844 Speaker 1: we're saying, well, fuck you, China, We're gonna give even 86 00:04:44,844 --> 00:04:48,804 Speaker 1: more teriffs to China. And like it's just evolving into 87 00:04:48,844 --> 00:04:53,364 Speaker 1: this madness. And people who were supporting Trump, like very vocally, 88 00:04:53,684 --> 00:04:56,284 Speaker 1: even some of those voices have come out and said, hey, 89 00:04:56,524 --> 00:04:58,684 Speaker 1: whoa hold on a second, like the Bill Ackmans of 90 00:04:58,724 --> 00:05:01,724 Speaker 1: the world, right, who have been just like go go Trump, 91 00:05:01,764 --> 00:05:04,084 Speaker 1: or all of a sudden like whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, 92 00:05:04,124 --> 00:05:07,164 Speaker 1: what's happening to the economy? What are you doing? Maybe 93 00:05:07,164 --> 00:05:10,204 Speaker 1: it's time to take a step back, slow down, take 94 00:05:10,244 --> 00:05:12,724 Speaker 1: a pause. And those voices actually have been so loud 95 00:05:12,764 --> 00:05:16,084 Speaker 1: that there was even a fake fake news yesterday where 96 00:05:16,124 --> 00:05:19,364 Speaker 1: Evan Reuter's ran a headline that market started trading on 97 00:05:19,644 --> 00:05:21,284 Speaker 1: that there was going to be a ninety day pause. 98 00:05:21,484 --> 00:05:24,564 Speaker 2: Well, a guy named whose last name is Bloomberg, like 99 00:05:24,644 --> 00:05:27,084 Speaker 2: Walter Bloomberg, like twet tweets and all like if your 100 00:05:27,124 --> 00:05:30,604 Speaker 2: name was like Johnny Reuter's or I am look this up. 101 00:05:31,844 --> 00:05:35,404 Speaker 2: The surname nyt like I don't know night or how 102 00:05:35,404 --> 00:05:38,444 Speaker 2: you pronounce it is apparently the rare Cambodian surname. Right, 103 00:05:38,484 --> 00:05:40,684 Speaker 2: So if you're the last name knit, right, you can 104 00:05:40,724 --> 00:05:44,284 Speaker 2: be like knit mit tariffs to be rescinded tomorrow and 105 00:05:44,324 --> 00:05:47,084 Speaker 2: then and then cause that major disruption in the stock market. Yeah, look, 106 00:05:47,244 --> 00:05:50,884 Speaker 2: there are parts of the center are funny. I always 107 00:05:50,924 --> 00:05:54,244 Speaker 2: believe in kind of keeping your wits about you, and 108 00:05:54,324 --> 00:05:56,764 Speaker 2: I mean, let me contextualize first, like these market swings, 109 00:05:56,764 --> 00:05:59,604 Speaker 2: so as tapping this, the SAB five hundred is up 110 00:05:59,644 --> 00:06:02,084 Speaker 2: two and a half percent today, so that reduces the 111 00:06:02,164 --> 00:06:05,724 Speaker 2: game from peak in early February or the loss to 112 00:06:05,764 --> 00:06:08,964 Speaker 2: about twenty percent from twenty three or whatever it was. 113 00:06:09,164 --> 00:06:12,364 Speaker 2: It's at least twenty three percent is the average tariff 114 00:06:12,444 --> 00:06:14,804 Speaker 2: right now that we're imposing on the rest of the world. 115 00:06:15,764 --> 00:06:18,564 Speaker 2: But still a really bad swing, especially considering that, like 116 00:06:18,964 --> 00:06:21,084 Speaker 2: investors assume that Trump would be good for the market, 117 00:06:21,124 --> 00:06:23,884 Speaker 2: and they assume that he probably would implement some terriffs, 118 00:06:23,964 --> 00:06:28,124 Speaker 2: certainly on China, probably some ten percent dish tariffs across 119 00:06:28,124 --> 00:06:31,324 Speaker 2: the board, with lots of cronyism and loopholes. Right, but 120 00:06:31,364 --> 00:06:33,644 Speaker 2: this is like on top you know, markets have assumed 121 00:06:33,644 --> 00:06:37,444 Speaker 2: for a long time that Republicans are good for Actually 122 00:06:37,444 --> 00:06:39,444 Speaker 2: it's a little more complicate than that. Right in twenty sixteen, 123 00:06:40,404 --> 00:06:43,964 Speaker 2: the market thought overnight that Trump winting would be bad 124 00:06:44,084 --> 00:06:48,644 Speaker 2: for stocks, the reverse course, literally overnight. So like the 125 00:06:48,644 --> 00:06:50,684 Speaker 2: market after Trump one in twenty sixteen went from being 126 00:06:50,724 --> 00:06:53,084 Speaker 2: way down to way up in fact the next day. 127 00:06:54,004 --> 00:06:56,804 Speaker 2: But now Wall Street has completely lost confidence in Trump. 128 00:06:56,884 --> 00:07:00,324 Speaker 2: And as you mentioned, I mean Elon, who literally a 129 00:07:00,324 --> 00:07:03,364 Speaker 2: few days ago was pictured in a hat saying Trump 130 00:07:03,484 --> 00:07:10,764 Speaker 2: is right about everything, is now kind of publicly subtweeting Trump, 131 00:07:11,124 --> 00:07:14,884 Speaker 2: critiquing Trump advisors like Peter Navarro and reportedly corn To the 132 00:07:14,884 --> 00:07:18,284 Speaker 2: Washington Post is also working behind the scenes to try 133 00:07:18,324 --> 00:07:21,764 Speaker 2: to get Trump to reverses hera So credit credit to Elon, Right, 134 00:07:22,164 --> 00:07:24,324 Speaker 2: it changes a lot for him to see that shit's 135 00:07:24,364 --> 00:07:28,844 Speaker 2: going wrong. But like, but you know, if he's reversing 136 00:07:28,884 --> 00:07:32,604 Speaker 2: course and Bill Lackman is reversing course and like very 137 00:07:32,844 --> 00:07:37,604 Speaker 2: little elite support and the few like Silicon Valley VC 138 00:07:37,764 --> 00:07:41,364 Speaker 2: types who are defending Trump looked fucking ridiculous, right, You know, 139 00:07:41,364 --> 00:07:43,644 Speaker 2: I could name names if I wanted to, but you 140 00:07:43,684 --> 00:07:46,004 Speaker 2: guys are fucking idiots. That's the only only way to 141 00:07:46,044 --> 00:07:50,484 Speaker 2: put it. Anyway. How do you feel, Maria, Well, I 142 00:07:50,484 --> 00:07:54,924 Speaker 2: mean you check your investments you have yeah. 143 00:07:54,924 --> 00:07:56,804 Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, I mean that this is one 144 00:07:56,844 --> 00:08:01,124 Speaker 1: of those moments where you know, usually the the right 145 00:08:01,164 --> 00:08:05,004 Speaker 1: answers don't actively trade. Right, you're not you are not 146 00:08:05,124 --> 00:08:08,804 Speaker 1: a day trader, and that's I think true for for 147 00:08:08,884 --> 00:08:11,924 Speaker 1: most people. Right, if you're not a professional, just let 148 00:08:12,004 --> 00:08:14,324 Speaker 1: it ride right. Look for the long term, this is 149 00:08:14,604 --> 00:08:19,644 Speaker 1: really I hate using the word unprecedented, right, because you know, 150 00:08:19,684 --> 00:08:23,164 Speaker 1: we've had major economic downturn moments like this, but I 151 00:08:23,164 --> 00:08:25,964 Speaker 1: think it is unprecedented, at least a lot of the 152 00:08:26,004 --> 00:08:27,884 Speaker 1: experts are saying it is in the sense that it's 153 00:08:27,924 --> 00:08:33,364 Speaker 1: completely self cost. Right. There's no external thing that is 154 00:08:33,404 --> 00:08:37,004 Speaker 1: actually precipitating this market crash, which is what has happened 155 00:08:37,044 --> 00:08:40,164 Speaker 1: every other time, you know, during COVID nineteen eighty seven, 156 00:08:40,204 --> 00:08:42,844 Speaker 1: like all of these times, the seventies oil shocks, right, 157 00:08:43,124 --> 00:08:46,804 Speaker 1: all of these shocks were kind of huge global events 158 00:08:47,324 --> 00:08:51,284 Speaker 1: that ended up doing tremendous damage to the stock market 159 00:08:51,284 --> 00:08:55,364 Speaker 1: in the short term. This is something that doesn't didn't 160 00:08:55,404 --> 00:08:58,444 Speaker 1: need to happen, right, Like, this is something that is 161 00:08:58,804 --> 00:09:05,124 Speaker 1: entirely self cost. It's just Trump making this decision. And apparently, 162 00:09:05,124 --> 00:09:08,084 Speaker 1: according to some of his advisors who are speaking anonymously, 163 00:09:08,404 --> 00:09:11,124 Speaker 1: he is in his I don't give a fuck stage 164 00:09:11,444 --> 00:09:15,164 Speaker 1: where he's not listening to advisors. He's golfing, and he's saying, 165 00:09:15,164 --> 00:09:17,084 Speaker 1: you know what, this is what I want to do, 166 00:09:17,244 --> 00:09:19,844 Speaker 1: and this is what I'm going to do, and I 167 00:09:19,884 --> 00:09:22,284 Speaker 1: don't care if all of my closest advisors are telling me, 168 00:09:22,324 --> 00:09:24,604 Speaker 1: I'm taking the economy, which is a huge, huge shift 169 00:09:24,684 --> 00:09:28,764 Speaker 1: right from Trump Part one, right where he really cared 170 00:09:28,764 --> 00:09:31,404 Speaker 1: about the market and was really sensitive to what the 171 00:09:31,404 --> 00:09:33,524 Speaker 1: market was saying. And it's also a shift from what 172 00:09:33,564 --> 00:09:37,124 Speaker 1: we saw in the early days of his presidency in 173 00:09:37,164 --> 00:09:42,444 Speaker 1: Trump Part two, where you know, he was actually threatening 174 00:09:42,484 --> 00:09:44,684 Speaker 1: tariffs and then going back and we even had you know, 175 00:09:44,724 --> 00:09:47,764 Speaker 1: a Risky Business episode where we were talking about kind 176 00:09:47,764 --> 00:09:50,884 Speaker 1: of what kind of game theory is this right where 177 00:09:50,924 --> 00:09:54,404 Speaker 1: you where you where you threaten something and then people 178 00:09:54,444 --> 00:09:57,564 Speaker 1: give fake concessions that aren't really concessions and you're like, Okay, 179 00:09:57,644 --> 00:10:00,604 Speaker 1: just kidding, Like I've asserted my dominance. Let's continue on. 180 00:10:01,004 --> 00:10:03,284 Speaker 1: And now he's like, you know what, No, Like, I'm 181 00:10:03,324 --> 00:10:04,844 Speaker 1: going to do this for real. I'm going to do 182 00:10:04,884 --> 00:10:07,604 Speaker 1: this big. I don't care about the math. Obviously, we 183 00:10:07,644 --> 00:10:09,604 Speaker 1: know Trump never likes to say he's wrong, so he's 184 00:10:09,604 --> 00:10:11,284 Speaker 1: not going to say he's wrong this time around. They're 185 00:10:11,284 --> 00:10:13,484 Speaker 1: people He's like, oh, they just need to acknowledge the mistake. No, 186 00:10:13,524 --> 00:10:15,804 Speaker 1: he's never going to do that. But it seems like 187 00:10:15,844 --> 00:10:18,044 Speaker 1: there's been some sort of fundamental shift in the way 188 00:10:18,044 --> 00:10:21,644 Speaker 1: he's thinking about the strategically where he's just like, fine, 189 00:10:21,644 --> 00:10:24,444 Speaker 1: I'll tank the economy, no paid, no gain, but we 190 00:10:24,484 --> 00:10:26,524 Speaker 1: don't even know what the gain is. No. 191 00:10:26,604 --> 00:10:30,804 Speaker 2: Look, I'm reading this book on Joe Biden called Fight 192 00:10:30,884 --> 00:10:33,764 Speaker 2: by Jonathan Allen and Amy Parns. It's a new book 193 00:10:33,764 --> 00:10:37,964 Speaker 2: that's out. That's very a very good book about how 194 00:10:38,244 --> 00:10:43,764 Speaker 2: people all around Joe Biden saw how Biden was losing 195 00:10:43,804 --> 00:10:46,444 Speaker 2: his fastball and his curveball and his breaking pitch and 196 00:10:47,404 --> 00:10:49,444 Speaker 2: his change up and everything else, right, and he was 197 00:10:49,484 --> 00:10:52,884 Speaker 2: really not performing very well at all. But Democrats got 198 00:10:52,924 --> 00:10:55,324 Speaker 2: stuck in a position where he was you know, he 199 00:10:55,404 --> 00:10:57,284 Speaker 2: was going to be the nominee anyway. But the point 200 00:10:57,324 --> 00:11:01,964 Speaker 2: is that, like when you get old and Trump is 201 00:11:01,964 --> 00:11:03,884 Speaker 2: the same age, now somebody as Biden was at the 202 00:11:03,884 --> 00:11:06,964 Speaker 2: start of his first term, you get even more stubborn. 203 00:11:07,284 --> 00:11:10,524 Speaker 2: You know, Can I be honest, Maria, you can. I 204 00:11:10,644 --> 00:11:15,444 Speaker 2: kind of miss Jared Kushner. I kind of miss. 205 00:11:16,364 --> 00:11:18,324 Speaker 1: That's not where I thought that sentence was gonna go. 206 00:11:21,884 --> 00:11:24,604 Speaker 2: I kind of miss having these more or less normal 207 00:11:24,644 --> 00:11:28,604 Speaker 2: Republicans right who who were close to Trump and trying 208 00:11:28,644 --> 00:11:29,964 Speaker 2: to steer them the digression and hey, you want to 209 00:11:29,964 --> 00:11:32,604 Speaker 2: win reelection, Hey you don't want to like undermine because 210 00:11:32,644 --> 00:11:35,524 Speaker 2: I think now, like all the other stuff that Trump 211 00:11:35,564 --> 00:11:38,564 Speaker 2: is trying to do, the cultural backlash and whatever else 212 00:11:38,604 --> 00:11:40,484 Speaker 2: right where. You know, I might agree with parts of 213 00:11:40,484 --> 00:11:42,164 Speaker 2: it and disgree with other parts of it, but like, 214 00:11:42,244 --> 00:11:44,724 Speaker 2: that's all gonna be jeopardized if people are like, you 215 00:11:45,004 --> 00:11:48,564 Speaker 2: won an election on inflation, and now you're tanking the economy, 216 00:11:48,604 --> 00:11:51,324 Speaker 2: particularly through by the way, people have this weird abstract 217 00:11:51,364 --> 00:11:55,084 Speaker 2: discussion online about like, okay, well, who has investments in 218 00:11:55,084 --> 00:11:57,324 Speaker 2: the stock market. Actually, by the way, about sixty percent 219 00:11:57,324 --> 00:12:00,004 Speaker 2: of people do have investments in the stock market, so 220 00:12:00,044 --> 00:12:02,284 Speaker 2: it's a pretty common thing. But also, like, you're gonna 221 00:12:02,284 --> 00:12:04,964 Speaker 2: about to make a bunch of shit much more expensive. 222 00:12:05,204 --> 00:12:08,044 Speaker 2: Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're 223 00:12:08,084 --> 00:12:10,444 Speaker 2: made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are 224 00:12:10,484 --> 00:12:14,244 Speaker 2: heavily taraffed. Right, you want to furnitu your home. A 225 00:12:14,284 --> 00:12:17,684 Speaker 2: lot of furniture is made abroad. You want to you know, 226 00:12:17,964 --> 00:12:20,284 Speaker 2: buy some yard, I mean all this stuff. You want 227 00:12:20,284 --> 00:12:23,364 Speaker 2: to buy avocados for your fucking burrito, right, Like all 228 00:12:23,404 --> 00:12:26,764 Speaker 2: this stuff comes from like foreign countries. I think actually 229 00:12:26,804 --> 00:12:29,044 Speaker 2: Canada and next come, now, have some of the more 230 00:12:29,164 --> 00:12:31,964 Speaker 2: exemptions in other countries. But like, it's gonna make stuff 231 00:12:32,244 --> 00:12:35,884 Speaker 2: notably more expensive to have people love the idea of 232 00:12:36,124 --> 00:12:40,804 Speaker 2: you love to have your nice American manufactured nikes, right, Well, 233 00:12:40,804 --> 00:12:44,244 Speaker 2: they're gonna cost a hundred bucks instead of one hundred bucks, right, 234 00:12:44,444 --> 00:12:46,844 Speaker 2: I can afford that, you know, I have a partner 235 00:12:46,844 --> 00:12:50,724 Speaker 2: who is a fan of nice shoes. Right. But, like, 236 00:12:50,804 --> 00:12:54,684 Speaker 2: this is gonna hit consumers hard. And although Silicon Valley 237 00:12:54,724 --> 00:12:57,684 Speaker 2: stocks are down more than the consensus, so are a 238 00:12:57,724 --> 00:13:01,404 Speaker 2: lot of consumer staples. It looks very recessionary. Booze and 239 00:13:01,404 --> 00:13:04,524 Speaker 2: tobacco stocks are up though, which is also a sign 240 00:13:04,564 --> 00:13:09,484 Speaker 2: of like despair. McDonald's is up, Taco bill. 241 00:13:09,644 --> 00:13:12,364 Speaker 1: Up right now, When you when you see that those 242 00:13:12,404 --> 00:13:15,324 Speaker 1: are the stocks that are up, you start being nervous. 243 00:13:15,324 --> 00:13:16,924 Speaker 1: And then when you see things like the price of 244 00:13:16,964 --> 00:13:19,764 Speaker 1: copper is down, right, Like that is a very good 245 00:13:19,844 --> 00:13:22,604 Speaker 1: marker of recession as well, because it means that demand 246 00:13:22,644 --> 00:13:25,244 Speaker 1: has is going is going to go down. You know, 247 00:13:25,284 --> 00:13:28,444 Speaker 1: we've also seen in the last week with the kind 248 00:13:28,444 --> 00:13:31,204 Speaker 1: of the FED conference and the FED announcements that like, 249 00:13:31,844 --> 00:13:34,284 Speaker 1: you know, the FED isn't a really tough spot as well, right, 250 00:13:34,844 --> 00:13:38,124 Speaker 1: because like what what do you do right when when 251 00:13:38,124 --> 00:13:41,604 Speaker 1: inflation is going to go up? And you know you 252 00:13:41,884 --> 00:13:45,284 Speaker 1: but you, but you've got this person in the White 253 00:13:45,324 --> 00:13:49,564 Speaker 1: House who's making these decisions about tariffs, where like what 254 00:13:49,644 --> 00:13:51,684 Speaker 1: do you do? It's like a rock and a hard place, right, 255 00:13:51,764 --> 00:13:55,044 Speaker 1: Like keep rates the same, lower them, raise them, Like 256 00:13:55,044 --> 00:13:57,804 Speaker 1: there's there's no good answer here, and the FED is 257 00:13:57,844 --> 00:14:01,204 Speaker 1: supposed to kind of come in and try to stabilize 258 00:14:01,244 --> 00:14:04,004 Speaker 1: things and try to calm the worries. And there's you know, 259 00:14:04,244 --> 00:14:06,244 Speaker 1: if when we're talking about the game theory, when we're 260 00:14:06,284 --> 00:14:08,524 Speaker 1: talking about like the long run and what is the 261 00:14:08,524 --> 00:14:11,924 Speaker 1: strategic thinking here? I don't know, right, Like this is 262 00:14:11,964 --> 00:14:15,124 Speaker 1: one of those where like there's no good choice, right, 263 00:14:15,204 --> 00:14:19,244 Speaker 1: like which box are we trying to get to while 264 00:14:19,284 --> 00:14:21,524 Speaker 1: the tariffs are at this height? Like I don't think 265 00:14:21,564 --> 00:14:23,204 Speaker 1: we're just in a part of a game tree that 266 00:14:23,284 --> 00:14:26,084 Speaker 1: like I don't know how to resolve it. Well, maybe 267 00:14:26,084 --> 00:14:29,124 Speaker 1: there's some brilliant economists out there who does. But all 268 00:14:29,124 --> 00:14:32,404 Speaker 1: the brilliant economists I've been reading have no idea how 269 00:14:32,404 --> 00:14:34,604 Speaker 1: to get out of this mess. If Trump does not 270 00:14:34,684 --> 00:14:35,404 Speaker 1: back down. 271 00:14:38,004 --> 00:14:50,804 Speaker 2: We'll be right back after this message. Yeah, Maria, I 272 00:14:50,844 --> 00:14:55,444 Speaker 2: think that we're in a real pickle, right, you know, 273 00:14:55,524 --> 00:14:58,004 Speaker 2: in part because like i mean, Trump claims this is 274 00:14:58,004 --> 00:15:03,844 Speaker 2: for negotiating leverage. And by the way, Zimbabwe did rescind 275 00:15:04,884 --> 00:15:07,724 Speaker 2: it's tariffs. It's relatively minor terriffs in the United States, 276 00:15:07,804 --> 00:15:09,604 Speaker 2: if we're starting at the back of the eye off 277 00:15:09,604 --> 00:15:12,484 Speaker 2: a bit and moving upward. But like, but there are 278 00:15:12,484 --> 00:15:15,484 Speaker 2: a few things here, what is that, Like this tariff 279 00:15:15,484 --> 00:15:19,404 Speaker 2: policy may literally have been implemented by an intern using 280 00:15:19,484 --> 00:15:23,804 Speaker 2: chat GPT. If you ask chat GPT or other large 281 00:15:23,884 --> 00:15:26,644 Speaker 2: language models, hey, come up with a quick formula to 282 00:15:27,124 --> 00:15:30,404 Speaker 2: determine tariff rates. Right, It'll sometimes just say, oh, let's 283 00:15:30,404 --> 00:15:32,684 Speaker 2: just look at the trade deficit. This is actually very stupid, 284 00:15:32,764 --> 00:15:35,564 Speaker 2: Like we have a big trade deficit with Vietnam because 285 00:15:35,604 --> 00:15:39,804 Speaker 2: they're a kind of lower middle class economy relative to 286 00:15:39,804 --> 00:15:43,564 Speaker 2: the rest of the world, where fairly productive about producing 287 00:15:44,244 --> 00:15:47,524 Speaker 2: toys and electronic equipment and you know, and certain types 288 00:15:47,524 --> 00:15:49,764 Speaker 2: of food stuffs, and there are things which we then import. 289 00:15:50,084 --> 00:15:52,404 Speaker 2: But the GDP per capita is I'm just gussing, like 290 00:15:52,444 --> 00:15:54,604 Speaker 2: four thousand bucks a year or something, and so like 291 00:15:55,364 --> 00:15:57,924 Speaker 2: not a big market for American made consumer goods. They're 292 00:15:57,924 --> 00:16:01,964 Speaker 2: also near China, Thailand, Japan, Korea, et cetera, where cheaper 293 00:16:01,964 --> 00:16:04,524 Speaker 2: to import, right and so like, so like you know, 294 00:16:05,084 --> 00:16:07,764 Speaker 2: that's a win win the unless you're concerned about unfairly 295 00:16:07,764 --> 00:16:10,564 Speaker 2: ebor practices, which is usually not the price of the right. Right, 296 00:16:11,524 --> 00:16:14,324 Speaker 2: that's a win win that they make stuff, We pay 297 00:16:14,324 --> 00:16:15,764 Speaker 2: for this stuff, We give them jobs. They do not 298 00:16:15,884 --> 00:16:17,804 Speaker 2: buy that much of our stuff. But that's okay, right, 299 00:16:17,844 --> 00:16:20,724 Speaker 2: I mean Trump literally doesn't realize that, like a trade 300 00:16:20,764 --> 00:16:23,764 Speaker 2: def it's not inherently a bad thing. So it's the 301 00:16:23,804 --> 00:16:26,604 Speaker 2: clumsiness of that rather than like if you had said 302 00:16:27,524 --> 00:16:31,724 Speaker 2: we're gonna have fifteen percent tariffs across the board, right, 303 00:16:32,244 --> 00:16:34,764 Speaker 2: the market would have reacted to that, but not so 304 00:16:34,844 --> 00:16:37,924 Speaker 2: negatively as these haphazard things. And by the way, the 305 00:16:38,004 --> 00:16:40,764 Speaker 2: fact that like this terraffs are these are going to 306 00:16:40,844 --> 00:16:44,164 Speaker 2: cause us so much pain, give us less leverage beyond 307 00:16:44,164 --> 00:16:47,164 Speaker 2: a certain point, right, because that it kind of becomes 308 00:16:47,164 --> 00:16:50,324 Speaker 2: a game of chicken where we have to like prove 309 00:16:50,644 --> 00:16:54,644 Speaker 2: that we have removed the steering wheel and now can't unflinched. 310 00:16:54,644 --> 00:16:57,684 Speaker 2: By the way, notwithstanding that they're contradictory rationales. So or 311 00:16:57,724 --> 00:17:00,244 Speaker 2: you'll see the Peter Navarro fucking idiot types I'm sorry, 312 00:17:00,284 --> 00:17:04,164 Speaker 2: Peter Navarro. You know, you'll see idiots like Peter Navarro 313 00:17:04,204 --> 00:17:06,124 Speaker 2: who are like, we actually need this for America's long 314 00:17:06,204 --> 00:17:08,124 Speaker 2: term growth or whatever else, and others say no, just 315 00:17:08,164 --> 00:17:11,284 Speaker 2: a negotiating ploy right, which are different. One is kind 316 00:17:11,284 --> 00:17:12,964 Speaker 2: of considering these are bad, but we want to actually 317 00:17:13,004 --> 00:17:14,884 Speaker 2: lower tariffs, and ones say no, tariffs are gonna be 318 00:17:14,924 --> 00:17:18,924 Speaker 2: want reshoring of American enterprise will through some kocamane scheme, 319 00:17:19,204 --> 00:17:21,084 Speaker 2: we will reduce deficits, even though if we go into 320 00:17:21,124 --> 00:17:25,284 Speaker 2: recessions that entails more spending and worsening the fiscal picture 321 00:17:25,644 --> 00:17:28,924 Speaker 2: long term. But it's contradictory and other countries to be like, 322 00:17:28,964 --> 00:17:33,484 Speaker 2: you know what, fuck you Donald Trump, right, we think 323 00:17:33,524 --> 00:17:36,724 Speaker 2: that eventually you'll be forced to blink by the market, 324 00:17:37,004 --> 00:17:41,404 Speaker 2: or eventually by Congress, which does is supposed to have 325 00:17:41,444 --> 00:17:46,684 Speaker 2: in the constitution authority for tariff policy specifically and for 326 00:17:46,924 --> 00:17:52,204 Speaker 2: funding the government generally. Now Congress also being idiots like 327 00:17:52,284 --> 00:17:54,204 Speaker 2: not quite in the same way that per Navarro is, 328 00:17:54,244 --> 00:17:57,724 Speaker 2: but like has delegated more and more authority to the executive. 329 00:17:57,724 --> 00:18:00,404 Speaker 2: It's occurred under both democratic and Republican administrations. Right, And 330 00:18:00,444 --> 00:18:03,044 Speaker 2: so there are lawsuits to stop Trump's tariffs. I'm not 331 00:18:03,044 --> 00:18:05,724 Speaker 2: a legal scholar. I don't know whether most of it 332 00:18:05,804 --> 00:18:08,684 Speaker 2: is legal and some of it violence principles. But Congress 333 00:18:08,724 --> 00:18:11,884 Speaker 2: does have the power to pass a lot saying stop this. 334 00:18:12,044 --> 00:18:16,844 Speaker 2: They will ultimately need two thirds majorities because Trump has 335 00:18:16,884 --> 00:18:20,524 Speaker 2: threatened and I think I believe would detail these threats. 336 00:18:20,564 --> 00:18:22,804 Speaker 2: They also need, by the way, to get on the 337 00:18:22,844 --> 00:18:26,804 Speaker 2: floor in the House, because the floor of the House 338 00:18:26,884 --> 00:18:31,284 Speaker 2: is more partisan. Right, the House Speaker Mike Johnson doesn't 339 00:18:31,324 --> 00:18:32,324 Speaker 2: want to put to me on the floor. You have 340 00:18:32,324 --> 00:18:35,044 Speaker 2: to do what file. It's called a discharge petition where 341 00:18:35,084 --> 00:18:37,564 Speaker 2: it takes thirty days. You get to get a bunch 342 00:18:37,564 --> 00:18:40,444 Speaker 2: of signatures, and then you're required to do that, right, 343 00:18:40,484 --> 00:18:44,804 Speaker 2: And that usually happens when the opposition party Democrats almost 344 00:18:44,804 --> 00:18:47,524 Speaker 2: have a majority in the House, but not quite, and 345 00:18:47,564 --> 00:18:51,084 Speaker 2: then a small number of sanaders or representers rather in 346 00:18:51,124 --> 00:18:53,564 Speaker 2: the governing party sign on. Then you're forced to like 347 00:18:53,604 --> 00:18:55,364 Speaker 2: actually take a measure to the floor. Right, and so 348 00:18:55,404 --> 00:18:58,284 Speaker 2: that would be at best like three days away. But yeah, 349 00:18:58,404 --> 00:19:02,844 Speaker 2: the economy goes into a recession, then I don't know, right. 350 00:19:02,844 --> 00:19:04,844 Speaker 2: People would say it's a high risk, high reward, bet, 351 00:19:04,844 --> 00:19:06,244 Speaker 2: I'm not sure what the reward is. 352 00:19:06,404 --> 00:19:08,564 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's kind of the other part of it, 353 00:19:08,604 --> 00:19:10,404 Speaker 1: like what is the reward? But I was gonna I 354 00:19:10,444 --> 00:19:12,364 Speaker 1: was going to ask what you think that because to 355 00:19:12,404 --> 00:19:14,724 Speaker 1: me it seems like a pipe dream, this whole congressional 356 00:19:14,804 --> 00:19:18,404 Speaker 1: action thing, Like, yes, technically Congress can do something, but 357 00:19:19,244 --> 00:19:22,644 Speaker 1: do you have any kind of thoughts on how likely 358 00:19:22,684 --> 00:19:24,484 Speaker 1: that actually is, because to me, it seems like there's 359 00:19:24,484 --> 00:19:26,284 Speaker 1: just no way they're going to get sixty seven right 360 00:19:26,524 --> 00:19:28,204 Speaker 1: in the Senate. There's no way that the House is 361 00:19:28,244 --> 00:19:29,924 Speaker 1: going to work. Like. It seems to me like I 362 00:19:29,924 --> 00:19:32,364 Speaker 1: don't know what has to happen for Congress to actually 363 00:19:32,404 --> 00:19:35,044 Speaker 1: like get its shit together and be like, no, this 364 00:19:35,204 --> 00:19:36,044 Speaker 1: is not going to stand. 365 00:19:36,964 --> 00:19:38,924 Speaker 2: I think the Senate is not. So You've already had 366 00:19:39,044 --> 00:19:43,524 Speaker 2: some Republicans sign on to different resolutions in the Senate 367 00:19:44,204 --> 00:19:49,524 Speaker 2: disapproving of Trump's tariffs, either generally or on canademics so specifically, right, Like, 368 00:19:49,644 --> 00:19:53,004 Speaker 2: I don't think sixty in the Senate, which would at 369 00:19:53,084 --> 00:19:55,364 Speaker 2: least pass a filibuster, is so hard. I'm not even 370 00:19:55,444 --> 00:20:00,004 Speaker 2: sure sixty seven is that hard. Right, It's the House. 371 00:20:00,044 --> 00:20:04,644 Speaker 2: It's the House where you know the first one third 372 00:20:04,804 --> 00:20:07,964 Speaker 2: of districts are really read because of jerrymandering and population 373 00:20:08,724 --> 00:20:11,924 Speaker 2: self sorting. Right, the House leader has not been on 374 00:20:12,004 --> 00:20:14,884 Speaker 2: board with this, although you know, you did have some 375 00:20:15,084 --> 00:20:19,684 Speaker 2: races last week, two special elections where Democrats outperformed Trump 376 00:20:19,764 --> 00:20:23,804 Speaker 2: numbers by about like seventeen points, right, the loss. But 377 00:20:23,884 --> 00:20:26,884 Speaker 2: these are districts that are extremely red in rural parts 378 00:20:26,884 --> 00:20:30,484 Speaker 2: of Florida. And so if that's true, then like, you know, look, 379 00:20:30,484 --> 00:20:33,884 Speaker 2: you'd be talking about like an epic route. I don't 380 00:20:33,884 --> 00:20:35,684 Speaker 2: want to put numbers on it and then get quoted 381 00:20:35,724 --> 00:20:38,924 Speaker 2: or misquoted later on. But like if you're like a 382 00:20:40,484 --> 00:20:43,444 Speaker 2: business deciding whether you know your restoration hardware, which I 383 00:20:43,484 --> 00:20:46,044 Speaker 2: mentioned because it's a bougie stock, but also the company 384 00:20:46,164 --> 00:20:49,164 Speaker 2: was hit hardest the first day after the tarif announcement, right, 385 00:20:49,364 --> 00:20:50,844 Speaker 2: their supply change is very big. 386 00:20:51,804 --> 00:20:54,004 Speaker 1: During the call, during. 387 00:20:53,804 --> 00:20:57,524 Speaker 2: The call, he also, you know, it's also like I said, 388 00:20:57,524 --> 00:20:59,124 Speaker 2: it's kind of bougie. You know, I don't really you 389 00:20:59,124 --> 00:21:02,284 Speaker 2: don't really need anything for restoration harder. Let's be honest, right, 390 00:21:02,284 --> 00:21:03,684 Speaker 2: it's not a store for necessities. 391 00:21:03,764 --> 00:21:04,804 Speaker 1: I have a couch from there. 392 00:21:06,444 --> 00:21:10,364 Speaker 2: You do good? I did. We can afford some rah furniture. 393 00:21:10,404 --> 00:21:14,004 Speaker 2: But like, if you're in a recession, those extensive couches, 394 00:21:14,444 --> 00:21:17,124 Speaker 2: you know, are as important as your Marlboro Reds and 395 00:21:17,204 --> 00:21:19,844 Speaker 2: bud Lights and McDonald's. And I'm somewhat joking, but like 396 00:21:19,884 --> 00:21:23,684 Speaker 2: you do see downshifting in consumer preferences from the upper 397 00:21:23,684 --> 00:21:25,604 Speaker 2: middle brow to the upper lower brown kind of everything 398 00:21:25,964 --> 00:21:28,724 Speaker 2: everything in between, and the luxury in for that matter too. Right, 399 00:21:29,844 --> 00:21:31,964 Speaker 2: So sorry, I lost between of foot what we're talking about. 400 00:21:31,964 --> 00:21:33,644 Speaker 1: We were talking about that. We were talking about the 401 00:21:33,684 --> 00:21:36,804 Speaker 1: house and how likely it is that we can actually 402 00:21:37,764 --> 00:21:39,524 Speaker 1: get something down there. You were saying that one third 403 00:21:39,564 --> 00:21:41,564 Speaker 1: of the districts are incredibly conservative. 404 00:21:42,044 --> 00:21:44,964 Speaker 2: If you're talking if your company planning for Okay, let's 405 00:21:45,084 --> 00:21:49,364 Speaker 2: let's reshore our supply chain restoration hardware. Let's find a 406 00:21:49,364 --> 00:21:54,124 Speaker 2: bunch of artisanal furniture makers in Knoxville, Tennessee, and Williamsburg, 407 00:21:54,164 --> 00:21:57,244 Speaker 2: Brooklyn in place like that, and long term will get 408 00:21:57,284 --> 00:21:58,684 Speaker 2: some costs down and it'll be good. 409 00:21:58,804 --> 00:21:59,004 Speaker 1: Right. 410 00:21:59,484 --> 00:22:02,364 Speaker 2: The problem is that like these terraffs could be rescinded 411 00:22:02,404 --> 00:22:06,924 Speaker 2: at any time, If not now, then in twenty twenty 412 00:22:06,964 --> 00:22:10,404 Speaker 2: six after the midterms. If not then then in twenty 413 00:22:10,484 --> 00:22:12,924 Speaker 2: twenty eight, when at this point I think I'd consider 414 00:22:13,564 --> 00:22:16,404 Speaker 2: Democrats a little bit over fifty percent to retake the 415 00:22:16,444 --> 00:22:20,124 Speaker 2: White House, right, So like, it's not like the sort 416 00:22:20,164 --> 00:22:23,044 Speaker 2: of long term stability that you would want. And in fact, 417 00:22:23,564 --> 00:22:25,484 Speaker 2: the public is against this policy and it might lead 418 00:22:25,524 --> 00:22:28,684 Speaker 2: to fewer tariffs in the very long run, but an 419 00:22:28,724 --> 00:22:33,644 Speaker 2: abdication of reliable American leadership and responsibility. So it's just 420 00:22:34,044 --> 00:22:36,524 Speaker 2: it's just kind of a mess. 421 00:22:36,884 --> 00:22:39,124 Speaker 1: It is a mess. We were also talking about kind 422 00:22:39,164 --> 00:22:41,644 Speaker 1: of what the long term is. Now. There's one theory 423 00:22:41,684 --> 00:22:46,444 Speaker 1: that I've seen that seems at least worthy of consideration. 424 00:22:46,524 --> 00:22:49,364 Speaker 1: I don't want to say, you know, plausible, but worthy 425 00:22:49,364 --> 00:22:53,564 Speaker 1: of discussion, and that's that the long term here is 426 00:22:53,764 --> 00:22:59,164 Speaker 1: just like an autocratic poaragram, right, that the idea is 427 00:22:59,244 --> 00:23:01,924 Speaker 1: like we tank everything and then we give concessions to 428 00:23:01,964 --> 00:23:03,204 Speaker 1: the people who are nice. 429 00:23:02,964 --> 00:23:06,004 Speaker 2: To think you've been nice. I don't buy this at all. 430 00:23:06,124 --> 00:23:06,844 Speaker 2: So I was wondering. 431 00:23:06,844 --> 00:23:09,964 Speaker 1: That's why I said, I'm not going to say plausible. Yeah, 432 00:23:10,004 --> 00:23:11,844 Speaker 1: that's why I phrased it the way I did. 433 00:23:12,244 --> 00:23:16,604 Speaker 2: I buy that Trump has strong autocratic tendencies. I buy 434 00:23:16,604 --> 00:23:19,644 Speaker 2: that some of the stuff he's doing on immigration and 435 00:23:19,684 --> 00:23:24,964 Speaker 2: free speeches, you know, autocratic. Right, And there was January sixth, 436 00:23:25,004 --> 00:23:27,364 Speaker 2: of course, right, I don't think this is a strategy 437 00:23:27,644 --> 00:23:30,244 Speaker 2: that you'd implement if you wanted to gain I mean, 438 00:23:30,244 --> 00:23:32,884 Speaker 2: I think this jeopardized the whole Trump agenda, right, and 439 00:23:32,884 --> 00:23:35,244 Speaker 2: this is at least going to have, like Congress habits 440 00:23:35,364 --> 00:23:37,884 Speaker 2: back up and the markets have its back up. And 441 00:23:37,924 --> 00:23:41,924 Speaker 2: you know, I've rarely seen everyone from maybe there are 442 00:23:41,924 --> 00:23:43,564 Speaker 2: a few people on the left that have eccentric views 443 00:23:43,564 --> 00:23:45,884 Speaker 2: about terrorists. They can go discuss some one blue sky. 444 00:23:45,964 --> 00:23:48,124 Speaker 2: That's fine with me, right, But like, you know, I 445 00:23:48,164 --> 00:23:51,644 Speaker 2: haven't seen the kind of what I call the Obama 446 00:23:52,004 --> 00:23:56,084 Speaker 2: base right, which is like everyone from the center right 447 00:23:56,124 --> 00:23:59,004 Speaker 2: who is pissed off at Bush to the left as 448 00:23:59,084 --> 00:24:03,404 Speaker 2: united against something as they are against Trump right now, right, 449 00:24:03,444 --> 00:24:06,164 Speaker 2: And like those are elites, those aren't rank and file voters. 450 00:24:06,244 --> 00:24:08,884 Speaker 2: Yet We've seen some decline in Trump's popularity ratings, but 451 00:24:09,004 --> 00:24:11,164 Speaker 2: like it will take some time for that to cycle through, 452 00:24:11,444 --> 00:24:14,244 Speaker 2: and maybe they can be averted if we somehow avoid 453 00:24:14,324 --> 00:24:20,804 Speaker 2: an economic downturn. But like this weakens Trump's powers a lot. Right, 454 00:24:20,804 --> 00:24:22,924 Speaker 2: people are willing to go along with a lot when 455 00:24:23,404 --> 00:24:27,844 Speaker 2: you're providing for them, right, and your checks are cashing 456 00:24:28,044 --> 00:24:30,964 Speaker 2: and goods are cheap and things like that, Right, even 457 00:24:31,004 --> 00:24:36,444 Speaker 2: in autocracies, economic crises can topple dictators, right. I think 458 00:24:36,564 --> 00:24:39,964 Speaker 2: the people who are worried about democratic backsliding are correct 459 00:24:39,964 --> 00:24:41,484 Speaker 2: to be worried about it. About I think the theory 460 00:24:41,524 --> 00:24:43,844 Speaker 2: is kind of the opposite of what this is likely 461 00:24:43,884 --> 00:24:44,124 Speaker 2: to do. 462 00:24:44,644 --> 00:24:47,124 Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I think that that is people trying to 463 00:24:48,484 --> 00:24:53,604 Speaker 1: impart a goal and kind of an intentionality here where 464 00:24:53,604 --> 00:24:57,844 Speaker 1: there's none right, where it's just like a kid being like, 465 00:24:58,004 --> 00:24:59,644 Speaker 1: I want to do this. I want to be I 466 00:24:59,684 --> 00:25:01,604 Speaker 1: want to be the bully, and I'm going to do 467 00:25:01,644 --> 00:25:03,724 Speaker 1: this and you can't stop me. You try to stop 468 00:25:03,764 --> 00:25:06,484 Speaker 1: me right now. So I tend to agree with you 469 00:25:06,644 --> 00:25:09,364 Speaker 1: that that it seems a little bit too far fast, 470 00:25:09,964 --> 00:25:14,004 Speaker 1: that this is one of those levers and we'll be 471 00:25:14,084 --> 00:25:27,564 Speaker 1: back right after this. I'd love to shift the lens 472 00:25:27,604 --> 00:25:31,764 Speaker 1: a little bit, so so Trump. I think we've talked 473 00:25:31,804 --> 00:25:34,404 Speaker 1: about the fact that this it's very difficult to know 474 00:25:34,404 --> 00:25:36,804 Speaker 1: what the long term game theory of this is and 475 00:25:36,964 --> 00:25:40,484 Speaker 1: probably none right that he's just taking the economy doing 476 00:25:40,524 --> 00:25:43,204 Speaker 1: this and kind of inflicting a lot of damage. But 477 00:25:43,364 --> 00:25:45,484 Speaker 1: what about kind of the the other end of it, 478 00:25:46,244 --> 00:25:49,644 Speaker 1: Us as consumers or people who actually have power talked 479 00:25:49,644 --> 00:25:53,564 Speaker 1: about what Congress can do. But in this case, like obviously, 480 00:25:53,844 --> 00:25:55,804 Speaker 1: you never, you know, to take a poker analogy, you 481 00:25:55,804 --> 00:25:58,204 Speaker 1: never want to make decisions when you're tilted right, when 482 00:25:58,244 --> 00:26:01,244 Speaker 1: you're kind of when you're really upset, when you're suffering 483 00:26:01,284 --> 00:26:04,964 Speaker 1: big losses. You know, if you're looking at your portfolio 484 00:26:05,044 --> 00:26:08,564 Speaker 1: going down downtown, you know, these are things that are like, 485 00:26:08,964 --> 00:26:10,884 Speaker 1: you know, you've lost a big poker hand, your your 486 00:26:10,924 --> 00:26:13,964 Speaker 1: chips are dwindling, and that's not usually the time to 487 00:26:14,004 --> 00:26:18,084 Speaker 1: make big swings and to try to think logically. But 488 00:26:19,044 --> 00:26:22,724 Speaker 1: in this particular case, like this is one of those 489 00:26:22,724 --> 00:26:25,604 Speaker 1: things where not panicking and just kind of also sitting 490 00:26:25,644 --> 00:26:28,244 Speaker 1: back down and just letting it all play out might 491 00:26:28,284 --> 00:26:32,804 Speaker 1: not be the right strategy either, right, they kind of 492 00:26:32,844 --> 00:26:36,964 Speaker 1: don't just don't just do something. Stand there types of things. 493 00:26:37,204 --> 00:26:39,164 Speaker 1: But how do we you know, how do we kind 494 00:26:39,164 --> 00:26:43,284 Speaker 1: of square that circle? And how do we react without 495 00:26:43,364 --> 00:26:47,204 Speaker 1: tilting right, without overreacting? How do we try to navigate 496 00:26:47,244 --> 00:26:50,564 Speaker 1: this environment where there's just extreme uncertainty? And as I 497 00:26:50,564 --> 00:26:52,764 Speaker 1: think you're making a really good point when you said, 498 00:26:52,804 --> 00:26:55,844 Speaker 1: like we don't know, right if we knew for with 499 00:26:55,924 --> 00:26:58,124 Speaker 1: one hundred percent certainty, these tariffs are going to stay 500 00:26:58,124 --> 00:27:00,444 Speaker 1: for the next two years at least. Okay, then you 501 00:27:00,484 --> 00:27:02,484 Speaker 1: can make decisions in that context. But we don't know 502 00:27:02,964 --> 00:27:05,084 Speaker 1: right Like as of now, we know that Trump says 503 00:27:05,124 --> 00:27:07,284 Speaker 1: he's not backing down, but we don't actually know what's 504 00:27:07,284 --> 00:27:09,164 Speaker 1: going to happen. We don't know what the reactions are 505 00:27:09,164 --> 00:27:11,524 Speaker 1: going to be. We see certain signs, we see Europe 506 00:27:11,564 --> 00:27:13,844 Speaker 1: banding together, you know, we see the rest of the 507 00:27:13,844 --> 00:27:16,084 Speaker 1: world actually trying to figure out what do we do now? 508 00:27:16,924 --> 00:27:19,244 Speaker 1: But how do you think about it? Right? How do 509 00:27:19,284 --> 00:27:21,204 Speaker 1: you think about it when you're trying to make your 510 00:27:21,244 --> 00:27:23,244 Speaker 1: own decisions and try to be a good player as 511 00:27:23,244 --> 00:27:24,564 Speaker 1: opposed to a tilted player. 512 00:27:25,764 --> 00:27:28,684 Speaker 2: Practice your Canadian accents that when you travel to Vancouver 513 00:27:28,804 --> 00:27:31,964 Speaker 2: or whatever. Oh sorry, they don't think you're an American. 514 00:27:32,084 --> 00:27:33,004 Speaker 2: I guess it's part of it. 515 00:27:34,004 --> 00:27:36,644 Speaker 1: I can start my a's at the end of sentences. 516 00:27:37,204 --> 00:27:40,724 Speaker 2: No, I think you know. Look, if you're a business 517 00:27:40,724 --> 00:27:43,124 Speaker 2: that relies on a heavily domestic supply chain, I guess 518 00:27:43,164 --> 00:27:46,724 Speaker 2: you're somewhat okay. You know, Goodyear Tire because they're very domestic, 519 00:27:47,484 --> 00:27:49,764 Speaker 2: has seen their stock price too well, but also because 520 00:27:50,244 --> 00:27:52,564 Speaker 2: people replace their tires a Good Year when they're not 521 00:27:52,564 --> 00:27:55,164 Speaker 2: replacing their cars, right and so like, even like the 522 00:27:55,204 --> 00:27:59,644 Speaker 2: bullish cases are barish and like, you know, it's very 523 00:28:00,724 --> 00:28:02,884 Speaker 2: very broad based. Yeah, I don't know if they are 524 00:28:03,084 --> 00:28:10,084 Speaker 2: good protections. I mean, you know, look, sometimes in a 525 00:28:10,684 --> 00:28:15,924 Speaker 2: recession things become cheaper at least I mean, it might 526 00:28:16,044 --> 00:28:19,764 Speaker 2: not be a terrible time in X months to look 527 00:28:19,804 --> 00:28:23,044 Speaker 2: at housing if you don't own well, because housing is 528 00:28:23,084 --> 00:28:25,404 Speaker 2: something where people are it's cyclical and like people are 529 00:28:26,804 --> 00:28:29,884 Speaker 2: you know, really reluctant to make like big ticket purchases 530 00:28:29,884 --> 00:28:33,684 Speaker 2: and like a downturn and you know, should not be 531 00:28:33,764 --> 00:28:37,804 Speaker 2: substantially affected by foreign goods, right. I mean, I'm sure 532 00:28:37,804 --> 00:28:41,204 Speaker 2: you're importing some building materials from abroad, but like you know, 533 00:28:41,804 --> 00:28:44,644 Speaker 2: most lumber we're cutting down right here in the United States, Maria, 534 00:28:45,644 --> 00:28:48,684 Speaker 2: so like, But apart from that, I mean, I think 535 00:28:48,724 --> 00:28:53,724 Speaker 2: you're like a little bit defenseless, apart from like having 536 00:28:53,764 --> 00:28:57,004 Speaker 2: to reason with yourself about like, oh am I a 537 00:28:57,044 --> 00:29:02,084 Speaker 2: person who is annoyed because this cuts into my retirement savings. 538 00:29:02,084 --> 00:29:04,004 Speaker 2: But I basically can live my life as I want to. 539 00:29:04,164 --> 00:29:06,524 Speaker 2: Or if you're someone where like it kind of has 540 00:29:06,844 --> 00:29:09,804 Speaker 2: causes a threat at short term time horizon is right, 541 00:29:09,844 --> 00:29:13,844 Speaker 2: if you're a small business owner that relies on imported 542 00:29:13,924 --> 00:29:17,524 Speaker 2: goods of different kinds, and or middle class customers who 543 00:29:17,564 --> 00:29:20,484 Speaker 2: are seeing their pocket books pinched. Then like, it's not 544 00:29:21,004 --> 00:29:24,004 Speaker 2: it's not great right now, right, I mean, probably should 545 00:29:24,004 --> 00:29:27,164 Speaker 2: shift you to having more of a long term focus, 546 00:29:27,164 --> 00:29:28,884 Speaker 2: I guess. But the long term provides a lot of 547 00:29:29,004 --> 00:29:29,804 Speaker 2: uncertainty too. 548 00:29:30,404 --> 00:29:32,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, even some you know, I was actually looking 549 00:29:32,604 --> 00:29:34,844 Speaker 1: at some supply chains because I was very curious about this, 550 00:29:35,044 --> 00:29:38,764 Speaker 1: and see, even some domestic seeming products actually have components 551 00:29:38,804 --> 00:29:42,204 Speaker 1: that that you wouldn't think about that are imported. Like 552 00:29:42,644 --> 00:29:46,444 Speaker 1: some domestic water have plastic manufacturers for their water bottles 553 00:29:46,764 --> 00:29:49,364 Speaker 1: that are not in the United States. So even things 554 00:29:49,364 --> 00:29:51,724 Speaker 1: that are you know, good old American water, like good 555 00:29:51,724 --> 00:29:56,084 Speaker 1: old American this, the supply chains are incredibly complicated. And 556 00:29:56,564 --> 00:30:00,004 Speaker 1: you know, the people saying that, oh, well, bring manufacturing 557 00:30:00,044 --> 00:30:01,604 Speaker 1: to the US, I don't think they realize what that 558 00:30:01,644 --> 00:30:05,404 Speaker 1: actually means, right, Like, there's a reason that that manufacturing 559 00:30:05,644 --> 00:30:08,164 Speaker 1: has shifted. I don't think people want a factory in 560 00:30:08,204 --> 00:30:10,524 Speaker 1: their backyard. I don't think people want to be working 561 00:30:10,564 --> 00:30:13,764 Speaker 1: a lot of those factory jobs. I mean, I don't 562 00:30:13,804 --> 00:30:17,284 Speaker 1: think that those supply chains, and even if all those 563 00:30:17,284 --> 00:30:21,444 Speaker 1: things are like, yes, absolutely, let's change the supply chains. 564 00:30:21,644 --> 00:30:24,844 Speaker 1: How long does that take? Right, like in the immediate term? 565 00:30:24,924 --> 00:30:27,404 Speaker 1: Like that that is not that is not something that 566 00:30:27,444 --> 00:30:31,164 Speaker 1: we can do right away. So as individuals, like we're 567 00:30:31,324 --> 00:30:35,284 Speaker 1: relatively powerless, not powerless, but we just there is no 568 00:30:35,404 --> 00:30:37,364 Speaker 1: good advice in the sense that we don't know what's 569 00:30:37,364 --> 00:30:39,844 Speaker 1: going to happen. Do you think that there are people 570 00:30:40,084 --> 00:30:42,644 Speaker 1: who can do something right? Like, who are the people 571 00:30:42,644 --> 00:30:45,804 Speaker 1: who might be able to influence something other than Elon Musk? 572 00:30:45,884 --> 00:30:49,484 Speaker 1: Maybe unless kind of this result in Elon Musk being 573 00:30:49,524 --> 00:30:53,644 Speaker 1: thrust out of the inner circle because he's subtweeting Trump 574 00:30:53,804 --> 00:30:56,164 Speaker 1: and talking about how he thinks that we should have 575 00:30:56,204 --> 00:30:59,604 Speaker 1: free trade. So who are people who might actually make 576 00:30:59,644 --> 00:31:02,804 Speaker 1: a difference where they're decision making right now actually matters. 577 00:31:03,764 --> 00:31:05,644 Speaker 2: The one hundred members of the United States Senate and 578 00:31:05,684 --> 00:31:07,924 Speaker 2: the fourhund and threety five members of the United States House. 579 00:31:07,964 --> 00:31:10,804 Speaker 2: I mean, or but I always am a little bit 580 00:31:10,884 --> 00:31:15,084 Speaker 2: reluctant to like have calls to activism. But you know, look, 581 00:31:15,124 --> 00:31:21,204 Speaker 2: if you're a person, whatever your political orientation, sitting in 582 00:31:20,964 --> 00:31:25,484 Speaker 2: a Senate or House seat where there's a relatively safe 583 00:31:25,484 --> 00:31:28,004 Speaker 2: Republican member or for the matter, there's a Democrat who's 584 00:31:28,004 --> 00:31:31,164 Speaker 2: being a little you know, oh terrorist, maybe it's good. 585 00:31:31,404 --> 00:31:33,764 Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know. You know, call your 586 00:31:33,804 --> 00:31:37,084 Speaker 2: fucking congress person, right and say, like, especially if you're 587 00:31:37,084 --> 00:31:40,124 Speaker 2: somebody who's donated, or if you're somebody who runs a 588 00:31:40,164 --> 00:31:42,844 Speaker 2: small business in that district, say this is gonna fuck 589 00:31:42,924 --> 00:31:44,364 Speaker 2: me up. Where this is not going to help the 590 00:31:44,844 --> 00:31:46,724 Speaker 2: working class, right, this is not going to help the 591 00:31:46,804 --> 00:31:51,804 Speaker 2: middle income consumer. Yeah, I mean, let you know, let 592 00:31:51,844 --> 00:31:54,404 Speaker 2: Congress know. To be honest, I think they probably do 593 00:31:54,964 --> 00:31:57,884 Speaker 2: know that, frankly, but like because they are aware of 594 00:31:57,884 --> 00:31:59,524 Speaker 2: what's going on in their district and this is not 595 00:31:59,684 --> 00:32:03,884 Speaker 2: some abstract cultural warfight. But Congress is responsive to to 596 00:32:04,484 --> 00:32:06,524 Speaker 2: don't call somebody not in your district, right, Yeah, pick 597 00:32:06,604 --> 00:32:09,404 Speaker 2: up the phone with the person who's who represents you 598 00:32:09,804 --> 00:32:11,844 Speaker 2: and let them know how you feel. 599 00:32:12,364 --> 00:32:14,084 Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I think this is this is definitely a 600 00:32:14,084 --> 00:32:16,884 Speaker 1: moment for a call to action. There have been others, 601 00:32:16,884 --> 00:32:18,844 Speaker 1: but this is one where it could actually be effective. 602 00:32:19,164 --> 00:32:19,284 Speaker 2: Right. 603 00:32:19,364 --> 00:32:22,444 Speaker 1: It's it's not particularly effective to you know, call your 604 00:32:22,644 --> 00:32:28,604 Speaker 1: Republican Senate or a representative, like if you're a Democrat 605 00:32:28,644 --> 00:32:30,684 Speaker 1: and it's a democratic talking point, but something like this, 606 00:32:30,844 --> 00:32:33,804 Speaker 1: like I actually think that this could really be effective 607 00:32:33,884 --> 00:32:37,164 Speaker 1: because you know, they they worry, they need to be 608 00:32:37,764 --> 00:32:40,844 Speaker 1: they need to be supported within their districts as well. 609 00:32:41,164 --> 00:32:43,364 Speaker 1: And this is one moment where I think that across 610 00:32:43,364 --> 00:32:48,084 Speaker 1: the board, we're seeing people, you know, people really not happy, 611 00:32:48,444 --> 00:32:50,364 Speaker 1: and this is I think this is also actually an 612 00:32:50,364 --> 00:32:54,524 Speaker 1: interesting opportunity to try to reach kind of the everyman 613 00:32:54,724 --> 00:32:57,244 Speaker 1: and say, look, you know, Trump isn't working for you, 614 00:32:57,324 --> 00:33:00,284 Speaker 1: because this is something where I think you can actually 615 00:33:00,324 --> 00:33:04,124 Speaker 1: reach a lot of people across the divide and say, hey, look, no, 616 00:33:04,284 --> 00:33:07,484 Speaker 1: this is not this is not good for your average American. 617 00:33:07,604 --> 00:33:12,684 Speaker 1: This is not good for like bottom line of Joe 618 00:33:12,884 --> 00:33:18,684 Speaker 1: from from where from Where's Joe from Pennsylvania? Okay, Joe 619 00:33:18,724 --> 00:33:22,524 Speaker 1: from Pennsylvania. That this is not good for his for 620 00:33:22,604 --> 00:33:25,444 Speaker 1: his pocket for his bottom line, for his retirement, for 621 00:33:25,524 --> 00:33:28,004 Speaker 1: his ability to buy food, that that this is just 622 00:33:28,084 --> 00:33:30,324 Speaker 1: not good all around. And so that might be one 623 00:33:30,404 --> 00:33:34,084 Speaker 1: silver lining if people actually do finally mobilize and get 624 00:33:34,164 --> 00:33:36,204 Speaker 1: Congress to get off their ass and do something and 625 00:33:36,244 --> 00:33:39,244 Speaker 1: stand up to Trump and say, look, these tariffs are 626 00:33:39,284 --> 00:33:41,244 Speaker 1: not good for the country and not good for the 627 00:33:41,284 --> 00:33:44,044 Speaker 1: global economy. And if we want America first. You know, 628 00:33:44,124 --> 00:33:45,844 Speaker 1: you don't want you don't want to have to have 629 00:33:45,924 --> 00:33:48,924 Speaker 1: America alone and everyone else against us. 630 00:33:50,124 --> 00:33:51,644 Speaker 2: Marie, I think we need to wrap this up because 631 00:33:51,644 --> 00:33:55,324 Speaker 2: I literally have a train to catch on going to Philadelphia. 632 00:33:55,524 --> 00:33:57,564 Speaker 1: Are you going to Philadelphia for poker night? 633 00:33:58,324 --> 00:34:02,524 Speaker 2: Not for poker, no poker, for an event at of Pennsylvania. 634 00:34:02,604 --> 00:34:04,844 Speaker 1: Okay, we'll have a wonderful event, and if you want 635 00:34:04,884 --> 00:34:07,244 Speaker 1: to join me in Philadelphia in two weeks, I'll be 636 00:34:07,284 --> 00:34:11,284 Speaker 1: going there for poker. For the poker so. 637 00:34:10,284 --> 00:34:13,604 Speaker 2: See if the partner gives poker permission. We'll see about that. 638 00:34:13,844 --> 00:34:15,724 Speaker 2: The series is coming up, which I intend to spend 639 00:34:16,084 --> 00:34:19,124 Speaker 2: a fair bit of time at, so we'll see maybe. 640 00:34:19,244 --> 00:34:21,404 Speaker 1: All right, well, well that sounds good. Have a very 641 00:34:21,444 --> 00:34:23,924 Speaker 1: safe trip to Philadelphia, and I hope that we'll have 642 00:34:23,964 --> 00:34:26,924 Speaker 1: better news for our listeners next week when it comes 643 00:34:26,964 --> 00:34:29,004 Speaker 1: to the markets. But at this point hope doesn't get 644 00:34:29,084 --> 00:34:35,884 Speaker 1: us very far. Let us know what you think of 645 00:34:35,924 --> 00:34:38,924 Speaker 1: the show. Reach out to us at Risky Business at 646 00:34:38,924 --> 00:34:42,044 Speaker 1: Pushkin dot fm. And by the way, if you're a 647 00:34:42,084 --> 00:34:45,084 Speaker 1: Pushkin Plus subscriber, we have some bonus content for you. 648 00:34:45,564 --> 00:34:48,684 Speaker 1: We'll be answering a listener question each week that's coming 649 00:34:48,764 --> 00:34:49,924 Speaker 1: up right after the credits. 650 00:34:50,404 --> 00:34:53,644 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 651 00:34:53,804 --> 00:34:56,004 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price. 652 00:34:56,364 --> 00:34:59,124 Speaker 2: You get access to all that premium content and ad 653 00:34:59,124 --> 00:35:01,964 Speaker 2: for listening across at Pushkin's entire network of shows. 654 00:35:02,324 --> 00:35:05,884 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. 655 00:35:05,244 --> 00:35:07,604 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 656 00:35:07,684 --> 00:35:11,324 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and Heart and Media. This episode 657 00:35:11,364 --> 00:35:14,604 Speaker 2: was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel 658 00:35:14,684 --> 00:35:18,044 Speaker 2: Hunter Chang. Sally Helm is our editor, and our executive 659 00:35:18,084 --> 00:35:21,004 Speaker 2: producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 660 00:35:21,484 --> 00:35:23,924 Speaker 1: If you like this show, please rate and review us 661 00:35:23,924 --> 00:35:26,284 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much 662 00:35:26,284 --> 00:35:26,804 Speaker 1: for tuning in.