1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:01,960 Speaker 1: The volume. 2 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: All right, welcome here to night here at the Volume 3 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 2: Heavy Friday, everybody. Hope all you guys have had a 4 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 2: great end to your week. Got a fun show for 5 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 2: you guys today. Instead of our mail bag, we're gonna 6 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 2: take ten predictions that I had from this preseason. Five 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 2: where I was right, in five where I was wrong, 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: and we're going to kind of check in on those 9 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 2: predictions from before the season. You guys, owe the joke 10 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 2: before we get started. Before we get started, to subscribe 11 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 2: to our Hoops Tonight YouTube channel. Make sure you guys 12 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: like this video. It helps us a lot if we 13 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: scroll down and hit that like button. Also, we'll be 14 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 2: back to our regular mail bags next Friday. If you 15 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 2: want to get a mail bag question in, drop them 16 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:50,959 Speaker 2: in the YouTube comments on our full episodes and we'll 17 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 2: get to them in our Friday mail bags. 18 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. 19 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: Also a quick note, I'm recording this episode on Wednesday, 20 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: so obviously this will have nothing to do with the 21 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 2: end season turn games on Wednesday night as well as 22 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 2: the Thursday Night slate in the NBA. All right, let's 23 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,960 Speaker 2: get right into it again. Five right predictions, five wrong predictions. 24 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 2: We're going to go back and forth, starting with my 25 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 2: first wrong prediction from before the season. Before the season, 26 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 2: I picked the Denver Nuggets to win the title when 27 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 2: I definitely should have picked Oklahoma City. Now, my thought 28 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 2: process is pretty simple. I thought it was the best 29 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 2: team that Denver had ever put around to Kole Jokich. 30 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: I loved the Cam Johnson fit. I loved the backup 31 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 2: center edition with Theonas Valancunas and the depth pieces with 32 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 2: Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Junior. I thought they'd do 33 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 2: a much better job of holding down the fort with 34 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 2: with Jokich off the floor this season. I thought we 35 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 2: had seen a real leap out of Aaron Gordon as 36 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 2: an offensive player over the previous year, and I thought 37 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 2: we'd get the best out of Jamal Murray in this 38 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 2: particular season, as well as the simple fact that I 39 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 2: think Nicole Jokic is the best basketball player in the world. 40 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 2: And the crazy thing is I was actually right about 41 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 2: all of those things. Like Cam Johnson in his last 42 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 2: eleven games is averaging fifteen points per game on fifty 43 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 2: one percent from the field in fifty one percent from three, 44 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: and he's given them a lot more foot speed on defense, 45 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 2: compared to their Michael Porter junior looks, Jonas Malincunis and 46 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 2: the depth editions have made this the best non Jokic 47 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: team of the Jokich era by a mile. Now here's 48 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 2: the funny thing. They're negative four point two points per 49 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 2: one hundred possessions with Yokich off the floor, which sounds bad, 50 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 2: but that is dramatically better than it has been for 51 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 2: the rest of the Nikola Jokic era. Aaron Gordon was 52 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 2: averaging career high points and true shooting percentage before his energy, 53 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: before he pulled his hamstring in that Rockets game. Jamal 54 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 2: Murray is going to make his first All Star team 55 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: this year, probably become the very first All Star in 56 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 2: the entire Nicola Jokic era. And I do think Nikola 57 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: Jokic is still the best player in the NBA. Scored 58 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 2: more than ever. He's averaging thirty points per thirty six 59 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:55,959 Speaker 2: minutes for the first time in his career. 60 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: He's doing it on the. 61 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 2: Highest efficiency of his career seventy two percent shooting. He's 62 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 2: averaging a triple double with twelve rebounds and eleven assists 63 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:05,839 Speaker 2: per game. And I also think he's been very good 64 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 2: on defense. In the big games this year, as the 65 00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:09,920 Speaker 2: Nuggets have been eight and two against teams that are 66 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 2: five hundred or better time and time again, showing a 67 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 2: lot in those big primetime matchups against the best teams 68 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 2: in the league. I was literally right about everything with Denver, 69 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 2: and it just doesn't matter because Oklahoma City is just 70 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 2: better than them. I talked before the season about how 71 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 2: the Thunder had by far the most potential for internal 72 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 2: improvement out of any team in the league, but that 73 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 2: we didn't know how to, you know, account for that, 74 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 2: Like we don't know what they're going to improve on, 75 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 2: if they're going to improve enough, right, Like it was 76 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: kind of an unknown. Well, it's literally been the best 77 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 2: case scenario. Shay looks like he's taking a legitimate leap. 78 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 2: He's also scoring at the highest rate of his career 79 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 2: thirty five point four points per thirty six minutes on 80 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: the highest efficiency of his career sixty nine percent true shooting, 81 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 2: fueled by a devastating pull up three point shot he 82 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: had been working on for years but that he just 83 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,119 Speaker 2: couldn't make. And now he's making it at forty six 84 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 2: percent off the dribbil thres this season, and it's added 85 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: an entire new dimension to his game. His rim finishing 86 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 2: is up year over year. He's been more accurate on 87 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 2: short jump shots and floaters year over year. I even 88 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 2: think his game management, like just his job kind of 89 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 2: being the de facto point guard, has become much more consistent. 90 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 2: I thought he'd get up to seven assists per game 91 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 2: this season. He probably would if he didn't have to 92 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 2: sit so many fourth quarters because they're beating the shit 93 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,080 Speaker 2: out of everyone. I don't think he's been as good 94 00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 2: as Jokic, but I do think he's been a tiny 95 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 2: bit better than both Luca and Yannis this year, which 96 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 2: is insane because both Luca and Janis have been amazing 97 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 2: this season. Chet has been amazing as well. His three 98 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 2: point shot is actually down a little bit year over year, 99 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 2: but he's up everywhere else. He's been deadly on mid 100 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 2: range shots. He's twenty for thirty two on two point 101 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 2: jump shots at sixty three percent. That's off the charts good. 102 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: His rim finishing, though, has been the revelation. He's up 103 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 2: eleven percent year over year at the rim compared to 104 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 2: last season, and one of the interesting kind of wrinkles 105 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 2: that Chets brought is becoming a real one on one threat. 106 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 2: Like last year, he just wasn't much of a one 107 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 2: on one threat. And you guys remember, I mean Pacers 108 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: fans will remember this. Remember when he kept trying to 109 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 2: like attack Miles Turner one on one in the finals 110 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 2: and it just wasn't working. When he would put the 111 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 2: ball on the floor and try to score, it kind 112 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 2: of felt like a good thing for the defense. 113 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 1: And it showed statistically. 114 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,799 Speaker 2: He tried to score one on one forty five times 115 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: last year in the regular season, and he generated just 116 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 2: thirty four points. 117 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: That's not good. 118 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 2: Obviously, this year already not even basically a fourth of 119 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,480 Speaker 2: the way through the season, already thirty six one on 120 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 2: one attacks. He's generated forty three points on those one 121 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 2: on one attacks, which is a very good number. So 122 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 2: he's already scored nine more points attacking one on one 123 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 2: than he did in the entirety of last season. I 124 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 2: know he missed a chunk of last season, but still 125 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 2: in a larger sample, he was less effective as a 126 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,799 Speaker 2: one on one player last year. The main thing on film, 127 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 2: it's just an attack mentality, Like when he's catching on 128 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 2: his post ups or in his ISOs, he's driving, he's 129 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 2: driving for layups and dunks. He'll mix in little fades 130 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 2: over both shoulders, but a lot of that stuff is 131 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: going towards the rim, and he has been very effective 132 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 2: as a one on one attack guy for this Thunder offense. 133 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 2: AJ Mitchell has turned into a legitimately awesome third ball 134 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 2: handler for them, same kind of thing in terms of 135 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: just vicious driving of the basketball that's getting to the rim, 136 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 2: consistently finishing there, but also making the kickout raids. That's 137 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 2: been big. AJ Mitchell and Chet Holmgren again, like Shay's 138 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 2: been amazing, He's clearly gone up a level that's awesome. 139 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 2: But AJ Mitchell and Chet have been able to more 140 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 2: than do more than enough offensively to fill in for 141 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 2: Jdubb being out, and that's a big part of why 142 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 2: the Thunder have been a very very good team despite 143 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 2: being without J. Dubb this season for the most part, 144 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 2: and as a team, the Thunder have turned themselves into 145 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 2: a deadly spot up team. They're top five and unguarded 146 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 2: three point percentage according to Synergy, So the days of 147 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: leaving the Thunder roll players wide open and just hoping 148 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 2: they'll miss those. 149 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: Appear to be over too. Overall, as a team. 150 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 2: I feel like there's like a level of command of 151 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: the game on offense that I thought last year kind 152 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 2: of came and went. But this year it's there for 153 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: them every single night. That's while their defense has been 154 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 2: every bit as frightening as it was last year. There's 155 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 2: been no drop off there from the title defense. They're 156 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 2: checking every box and the only remaining question mark is 157 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 2: Jalen Williams. Remember how he seemed to kind of like 158 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 2: halfway through the playoff run, figure out that no one 159 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 2: could keep him from the rim, and he started attacking 160 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 2: the basket way more. Well, that's continued to start this season. 161 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 2: Last season, he averaged just five point seven attempts at 162 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: the rim per game according to Synergy. This year he's 163 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 2: at seven point four rim attempts. That's flat out terrifying. 164 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 2: All three of their main shot creators attack the rim 165 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 2: relentlessly in all of their lineups, and they all make 166 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 2: good kickout reads and they're knocking down those shots. And 167 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 2: it's not just three points spacing. They have plenty of 168 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 2: vertical spacing. With the lob threats of Chet Holmgren and 169 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 2: Isaiah Hartenstein. They both are good at passing to each 170 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 2: other as well. I just think this is very clearly 171 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 2: the best team in the NBA. To be clear, I 172 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 2: don't think they're unbeatable. So for your Nuggets fans out there, like, 173 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's over for you. I still think 174 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 2: you're awesome, and I still think you're a puncher's chance 175 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 2: upset threat for all of the reasons that we discussed earlier. 176 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: But at this point, if you're picking anybody other than 177 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: Oklahoma City to win the title, that's just wishful thinking. 178 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: They're clearly the best. They deserve to be favored. 179 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 2: The vast majority of NBA teams literally have no shot 180 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 2: of even competing with these guys in a playoff series, 181 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 2: let alone upsetting them. And there might only be three 182 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 2: or four teams that have a shot, like a real 183 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,280 Speaker 2: shot at an upset. But that's all there is, just 184 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 2: a shot, a chance for an upset. The Thunder are 185 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 2: in a separate tier than everyone else at the top 186 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 2: of the league. And if I have an opportunity, well 187 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 2: i am here. In a couple of weeks, I'm gonna 188 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,959 Speaker 2: do my next set of contender rankings just kind of 189 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 2: updating that I'm gonna have the Thunder in their own 190 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,719 Speaker 2: tier at the top of the league. 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Terms and 217 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 2: conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight 218 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 2: three to three play wise In Indiana. If you or 219 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 2: someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, 220 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 2: call one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem 221 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, 222 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. My first right prediction 223 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 2: from the summer, I thought the Lakers would be better 224 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 2: than they were last year. Now, the funny thing here 225 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:03,240 Speaker 2: is I was so close to bailing on them after 226 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 2: that Warriors game because they were so mediocre in training 227 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 2: camp and they did not look good in their preseason games. 228 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 2: And then they just looked outclassed by Golden State on 229 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 2: opening Night. But since then, they're seventeen to five, they 230 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 2: have the third best record in the NBA, and all 231 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 2: of the things that I thought about them before the 232 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 2: season have come to fruition. 233 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: Now. 234 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,520 Speaker 2: My take on the Lakers before the season was pretty simple. Yeah, 235 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 2: I thought they had a severe athleticism deficit, and I 236 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 2: thought it would prevent them from being a legit top 237 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: tier contender. Even with them winning seventeen of their last 238 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 2: twenty two games, I have not moved them into the 239 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 2: top tier of contenders. I didn't see them as anything 240 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 2: more than an upset threat in the Western Conference unless 241 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 2: they made a massive mid season trade for a starting 242 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,000 Speaker 2: small forward, which we'll see if that ends up happening, 243 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: I'm skeptical about it, but we'll see. But I thought 244 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 2: way too many people had them way too low in 245 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 2: their Western Conference projections. I saw a lot of lists 246 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 2: that had them like fifth or sixth, and some that 247 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 2: even had them in the play in and I thought 248 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 2: that was insane. I've seen this sort of thing happen before, 249 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 2: when a team has a disappointing playoff showing like the 250 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 2: Lakers got their butts kicked by the Timberwolves, and that's 251 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 2: certainly revealing in some ways, it's part of why I 252 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,280 Speaker 2: don't have them in the top tier. With Denver in Houston. 253 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 2: It showed that they have an athleticism deficit, and that's 254 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 2: why even though they're seventeen and six right now, I 255 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 2: don't have them in that Denver in Houston tier. Yet 256 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 2: they're gonna have opportunities to demonstrate that. By the time 257 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 2: you guys listen to this, we'll get to see them 258 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 2: against the Spurs, and tomorrow night we'll get to see 259 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,360 Speaker 2: them potentially against the Thunder if they win against the Spurs, 260 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 2: so they're gonna end if they don't win against the 261 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 2: Spurs on Wednesday, we'll get to see them against the Thunder. 262 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 2: In February, They're gonna play the Suns again soon. There 263 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 2: are plenty of opportunities for them to try to demonstrate 264 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 2: that that's not a weakness for them. But after what 265 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 2: happened with Minnesota and what happened with OKC back in November, 266 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 2: and with what happened with the Suns a little over 267 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 2: a week ago, like I still that athleticism deficit for 268 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 2: me keeps them out of that top tier, but set 269 00:12:56,760 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 2: the Wolves series aside for a second. The Lakers were 270 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the NBA all season long, 271 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: and people just forgot because of a bad week of basketball. 272 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 2: They won fifty games last year despite being ravaged by 273 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 2: injuries again for a third of the season. They just 274 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 2: had Lebron and Austin with Jackson Hayes as their starting center. 275 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 2: They finished the season with the sixth best record in 276 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 2: the NBA last year. And yeah, look, they lost at 277 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:25,920 Speaker 2: the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were the better team. They showed 278 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 2: that they deserve to advance, but like as often the 279 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 2: case in the postseason, those games were closer than they looked. 280 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 2: They got their butts kicked in Game one, then they 281 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 2: controlled Game two. It's one to one. Game three, Luca 282 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,200 Speaker 2: was sick, he had the flu. He was awful in 283 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,719 Speaker 2: that game. It's a big part of why they lost 284 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 2: Game four. JJ pushed all his chips in, tried to 285 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 2: win the game by playing his starters the entire second half, 286 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,199 Speaker 2: and they led most of the second half before Minnesota 287 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 2: came back and beat them late in the game. There's 288 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 2: a version of that where it's two to two and 289 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 2: you go back to LA could be a tougher series. 290 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 2: The point is Minnesota won, but it was than it looked, 291 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 2: and for whatever reason, people took that and then just 292 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 2: crumpled up the Lakers and threw them to the side 293 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 2: like they were not going to be a factor this year. 294 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 2: And as I went over in my season preview, they 295 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 2: were clearly a much better team than they were last year. 296 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 2: Luca was obviously going to come back from the embarrassment 297 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 2: of last season and be in much better shape then. 298 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,360 Speaker 2: He has career highs and scoring career highs in efficiency. 299 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:24,880 Speaker 2: I think he's been pretty good on defense for the 300 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 2: most part. They added critical depth. They turned Dorian Phinney 301 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 2: Smith into three rotation players, finally a legit, bona fide 302 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 2: starting center, and DeAndre Ayton, who was obviously going to 303 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: be a great fit in their pick and roll attack. 304 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 2: Massive upgrade over Jackson Hayes and Marcus Martin. Dick Larravia 305 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 2: just provided them with a couple of bench wings that 306 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 2: could start a game in a pinch if they needed. 307 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 2: I just didn't understand all the Lakers' pessimism over the summer. 308 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 2: I didn't see them as a top tier contender either. 309 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 2: That's fine, but I didn't see a universe where they 310 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 2: weren't like a home court in the first round team 311 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 2: or a top four seed, a fifty one team last year. 312 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 2: There were six best team in the league last year 313 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 2: without their stars, with Luka Doncic being basically fat when 314 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 2: he came back, and so I just thought there was 315 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 2: a good chance, even if I was pessimistic about them 316 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:12,880 Speaker 2: as a playoff threat. 317 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: No, there was a good chance. 318 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 2: And then win in fifty three fifty four games and 319 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: being a top four seed, and instead they're on like 320 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 2: a sixty win pace this season. And yes, Lebron James 321 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: was out to start the year, but the massive improvement 322 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: from Austin Reeves has done more than enough to make 323 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 2: up for that. And honestly, since Lebron came back, I 324 00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 2: think the fit's been fantastic. And so I more or 325 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 2: less feel exactly like I did before the season. If 326 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 2: Lebron says healthy and they hit on a trade for 327 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 2: starting small forward for someone like Andrew Wiggins or Herb Jones, 328 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 2: I think they're in the same tier with Denver and 329 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 2: Houston as a legitimate upset threat in that Western Conference. 330 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: All right, My. 331 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 2: Second wrong prediction. I thought before the season that the 332 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 2: loss of Fred van Vliet would essentially be a death 333 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 2: sentence for the Rockets. I thought the lack of ball 334 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 2: handling would be too much for them to overcome, especially 335 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 2: against certain matchups. I think I was very wrong about that. 336 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 2: To be clear, this has nothing to do with their record. 337 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 2: I thought they'd win a lot of regular season games 338 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 2: no matter what, just because their defense was going to 339 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 2: be awesome and their just overall depth of talent and 340 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 2: youthful exuberance and athleticism in size. I believe I'm wrong 341 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 2: not because of their record, but because of how Houston 342 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: has been winning. All of their drivers of success that 343 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 2: we knew would be there were there right like. They've 344 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,040 Speaker 2: been second in defensive rating to start the season. They're 345 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,480 Speaker 2: the best rebounding team in the league. They're rebounding forty 346 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 2: one percent of their own misses as part of that 347 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 2: offensive rebounding attack. They've been super efficient in transition. But 348 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 2: they've also just been a flat out awesome offense despite 349 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 2: the lack of that top end ball handling. And I 350 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 2: don't think ball handling has been nearly enough of an. 351 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 1: Issue to matter. 352 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 2: I don't want to sit here and pretend like there's 353 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 2: been no issue at all, Like they've had a turnover problem, 354 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 2: if the third highest turnover rate in the league. So again, 355 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 2: it's not like it's been no issue. But Albern Shangoun 356 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 2: and Kevin Durant, help from Aman Thompson and Rechepherd, they've 357 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:11,880 Speaker 2: been more than enough to consistently create advantages, and they've 358 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 2: been an elite offense by any measure. They're fourth and 359 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,160 Speaker 2: offensive rating overall, eleventh and a half court offensive rating, 360 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 2: which is still really good, ninth in clutch offensive rating. 361 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: They haven't had problems scoring at the end of games. 362 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 2: It's all worked out. I just think I over focused 363 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 2: on that specific weakness when all of the overwhelming strengths 364 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: of the team were more than enough to make up 365 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 2: for it. So, for instance, like the Rockets are a 366 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 2: good transition defense, especially off of turnovers, so the damage 367 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,400 Speaker 2: that gets done from their turnovers hasn't really hurt them 368 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: on the scoreboard as much as you'd think, even though 369 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 2: they turn the ball over a lot, their defense in 370 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 2: transition is more like middle of the pack, which makes 371 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 2: up for it right in terms of how much points 372 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 2: they're giving up in transition. The other way, they generate 373 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,440 Speaker 2: so many extra pass on the offensive glass, they dominate 374 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 2: points in the paint on both ends of the floor, 375 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 2: and their offense is so incredible and so dynamic with 376 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 2: the way that Shangouon and Kevin Durant can attack matchups 377 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 2: and either get great one on one opportunities or get 378 00:18:13,560 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 2: the defense in rotation four on three with Kevin Durant 379 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 2: bringing two to the ball or Shangun drawing two to 380 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: the post, that they're going to present massive problems to 381 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: whoever they face in the postseason, even if they don't 382 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 2: make a trade, Like yeah, if they make a trade 383 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 2: for the right kind of guard, it'll certainly make them better. 384 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 2: But I no longer view it as an absolute necessity 385 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 2: for them to compete for a championship. They may have 386 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 2: a ball handling deficit, but I think it was foolish 387 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 2: for me to act as though that was a death 388 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 2: sentence when they have so many strengths that can overcome 389 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 2: that particular weakness. Are my second right prediction. Before the season, 390 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 2: I talked about how the Kevin Durant trade actually did 391 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 2: a good job of balancing out the roster for the 392 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,400 Speaker 2: Phoenix Suns, and I thought it'd make them a huge 393 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 2: pain in the ass to play against this year. Now, 394 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 2: the funny thing is, even though I was high on 395 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 2: the Suns, I clearly wasn't high enough, and they've exceeded 396 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 2: my expectations in large part because of the rise of 397 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 2: Mark Williams as a defensive anchor and Dylan Brooks as 398 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 2: an offensive player, like as a shot maker. We'll get 399 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 2: to that in a minute, but I just have these 400 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 2: basic basketball beliefs when it comes to establishing a high 401 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 2: floor night tonight in the NBA regular season, and one 402 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: of those is, if you have a bunch of different 403 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 2: types of versatile athletes that can guard on the perimeter 404 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 2: different types of positions, and you have centers that can 405 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 2: guard in different types of coverages, you can be an 406 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 2: elite defense. And then on the other end of the floor, 407 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 2: if you have a legit floor raising advantage creator like 408 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 2: Devin Booker, you can be good enough on offense to 409 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 2: win regular season games. Basically the same reasoning that caused 410 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 2: me to be high on the Clippers last season even 411 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 2: though Kawhi Leonard was out because they signed Derek Jones 412 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 2: Junior two summers ago, and I was, like James Harden 413 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 2: high offensive floor. 414 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 1: Kind of guy. 415 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,399 Speaker 2: Zubots great pick and roll partner for him. You've got 416 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 2: good perimeter defenders and athletes. Zubots is a good defensive anchor. 417 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 2: I was like, I think the Clippers are going to 418 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 2: be scrappy this season, and they were even without Kawhi. 419 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,120 Speaker 2: That same reasoning caused me to feel that way about Phoenix. 420 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:13,320 Speaker 2: Dylan Brooks was already one of the top five defensive 421 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 2: wings in the NBA, and he's even better this season 422 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 2: because of the additions he's made on offense. Ryan Dunn 423 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 2: showed the potential to be one of those types of 424 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:23,959 Speaker 2: guys on defense. Devin Booker, Grayson Allen, and Royce O'Neil 425 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 2: all solid perimeter guys, and I thought they'd be athletic 426 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 2: enough at center to make it work. Now the irony 427 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 2: here is the Suns are now fourteen and ten again. 428 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 2: We're recording this on Wednesday. That's only two and a 429 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 2: half games back of the four seed in the West. 430 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 2: Some big wins recently on the road against the Lakers, 431 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 2: against the Minnesota Timberwolves on the road, they competed very 432 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 2: well with the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. They're 433 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 2: even better than I thought they would be. Now that 434 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 2: comes down to two things. The rise of Dylan Brooks 435 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 2: as a shot maker. We covered this in depth last week, 436 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 2: but basically, just fill and had already had kind of 437 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 2: a good set of natural scoring moves and confidence and creativity, 438 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 2: and he just did the work behind the scenes to 439 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 2: become a polished enough shot maker that he's actually converting 440 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 2: those into makes now and it's adding another layer to 441 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 2: Phoenix's offense. And then Mark Williams and what I think 442 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,520 Speaker 2: has been a very impressive showing of scouting pro personnel 443 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: scouting from the phoenix On's front office. They identified him 444 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 2: as a guy that they thought could be a good 445 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 2: drop coverage big for them, and he has been. He's 446 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 2: been an awesome drop coverage big for them, in large 447 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 2: part because he's got the types of big, physical defenders 448 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 2: that can get over the top of screens in funnel 449 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 2: ball handlers into him where his length becomes such a factor. 450 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:41,320 Speaker 1: Those two things. 451 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 2: Hitting has gone from making them a you know, eleven 452 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 2: and thirteen pain in the ass team like I kind 453 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 2: of expected them to be, to being fourteen to ten 454 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 2: and legitimately one of the playoff teams in the Western Conference. Okay, 455 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 2: third wrong prediction. This one was probably my worst. I 456 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 2: said before the season that I thought the Spurs would 457 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 2: be a playing team again, and my reasoning there was 458 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 2: I didn't think they had enough really high level NBA 459 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:16,119 Speaker 2: players to actually compete with the upper tiers in the West. 460 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 2: Those of you guys who listened to that PAP will 461 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,399 Speaker 2: remember I was using Minnesota as an example, and I 462 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 2: was like, Man, these good teams at. 463 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: The top of the West. 464 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,800 Speaker 2: They got five, six like awesome players, and I'm just 465 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 2: not sure that the Spurs have that many awesome players. 466 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 2: And I was just flatly wrong about this. A couple 467 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 2: of reasons why. One, their stars are playing some really 468 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 2: really high level basketball. I thought Wemby would go up 469 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,479 Speaker 2: a level. I had him seventh in my player rankings 470 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,959 Speaker 2: coming into the season. That has been, you know, a 471 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,440 Speaker 2: reality so far, at least when Wemby's been healthy and 472 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 2: on the floor. But dearon Fox has been playing some 473 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 2: of the best basketball of his career since Victor wembin 474 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 2: Yama went down. He's shooting the ball super well, getting 475 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: tons of dribble penetration. I think he's really been fueling 476 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 2: the Spurs offense with his passing his ability to draw 477 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:05,160 Speaker 2: multiple defenders and make the kickout reads. So Dearon Fox 478 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,119 Speaker 2: has just been better than I thought he would be. 479 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 2: And then several of their key role players have popped. 480 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,360 Speaker 2: Devin Vessel and Kelden Johnson both looked like guys who 481 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,280 Speaker 2: were destined to be traded over the last couple of years, 482 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 2: like young players that had potential, but they never really popped, 483 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 2: and they looked like kind of awkward fits with the 484 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,080 Speaker 2: direction that the team was going, right, especially coming into 485 00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,479 Speaker 2: the season, You're like, man, it's probably gonna be Dylan 486 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 2: Harper and Steph Castle as your backcourt for the future, right, 487 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 2: And Keldon Johnson couldn't shoot well enough to ever be 488 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 2: like what you'd consider to be your starting three moving forward, 489 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 2: and so it kind of looked like those guys were 490 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 2: the odd man out, odd men out right, But both 491 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 2: of those guys have been incredible to start this season. 492 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 2: Devin Vessel has finally popped as a spot up shooter 493 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 2: in a way that his team desperately needed. He's shooting 494 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 2: forty seven percent on unguarded catch and shoot threes this year. 495 00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 2: His above the break shooting, in particular off the catch, 496 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 2: has been a i idle release valve for them and 497 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 2: has won them several games this season. And then Keldon 498 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:09,320 Speaker 2: Johnson has just been an athletic force that teams are 499 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 2: struggling to handle. He's killing teams as a rebounder, He's 500 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,399 Speaker 2: punishing them going to the rim as like a bully 501 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,120 Speaker 2: ball player. He's basically been a twenty ten guy. If 502 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 2: you count it as like a per thirty six stat. 503 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 2: He's at like nineteen points and ten rebounds per thirty 504 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 2: six minutes. He's found ways to be an effective off 505 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 2: ball scoring threat as a cutter and as an offensive 506 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 2: rebounder as well. Those guys popping has been crucial for them. 507 00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 2: They just look like really good players. And then down 508 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 2: the roster, just hit after hit. Luke Cornett has been 509 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 2: perfect for them, both with Wemby and without Wemby filling 510 00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 2: in for him when he's been out of the lineup. 511 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,639 Speaker 2: Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnee are just providing that quality 512 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 2: spot up shooting that just kind of classic three and 513 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 2: D role player stuff. Dylan Harper is getting to the 514 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 2: rim at will. Jeremy Sohan has been like another layer 515 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: of that Keldon Johnson esque like cutting, rim, pressuring, offensive, 516 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 2: rebounding attack. This is just a really good basketball team, 517 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,959 Speaker 2: and with Victor weman Yama coming back, I view them 518 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 2: as a legitimate puncher's chance contender in the West. I 519 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 2: have them in the same tier with the Lakers and 520 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 2: the Timberwolves there just off of that Okce Houston, Denver tier. 521 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,160 Speaker 2: I was very wrong about the Spurs before the season. 522 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 2: Probably my biggest mistake in my off season evaluations. My 523 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 2: third RTE the rise of Dennyovdia when we got to 524 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 2: the summer. But I have a kind of like a 525 00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 2: routine as I go through the season. Early in the season, 526 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 2: I'm hitting on everybody more or less. You know, obviously 527 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 2: the very basement of the league, I'm not gonna hit 528 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,000 Speaker 2: too much. But then we get into like the playoff era, 529 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,199 Speaker 2: and once we get about halfway through the season, I 530 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 2: really focus on just the teams that are in the 531 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 2: playoff picture, and you know, especially down the stretch, like 532 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 2: teams that are outside of the playoff picture, I'm just 533 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 2: not gonna waste a lot of time watching them. And 534 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,439 Speaker 2: so what I do is then when we get to 535 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 2: the summer, that's when I go back and I really 536 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 2: dig into the teams that I didn't get to watch 537 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 2: as much during the ramp up for the postseason, right, 538 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 2: And so that's what ended up happening for Portland this summer. Right, Like, 539 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 2: I had two trends that I really wanted to dig 540 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,840 Speaker 2: into when I had some time this summer to watch film. 541 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 2: There were some statistical things going on with Shaden Sharp 542 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 2: and Danny Avdia that were kind of eye popping. Those 543 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 2: guys were putting up some massive numbers at the tail 544 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 2: end of the season. So I took a lot of 545 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,439 Speaker 2: time to dive into the film this summer, and my 546 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 2: main takeaway was Shaden was just kind of chucking shots 547 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 2: like he's a good athlete, He's getting good looks, but 548 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 2: I didn't think it was translatable to consistent success beyond 549 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 2: him just continuing to take those shots and probably scoring 550 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 2: at a pretty inefficient clip. And then I said, I 551 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,959 Speaker 2: thought that Denny avdia surge was very real. There was 552 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 2: like a real methodical process to his success. He was 553 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 2: hard slashing off of closeouts, and when he wanted to 554 00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:44,920 Speaker 2: hit a gap, he could hit it with like some real, 555 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 2: like like aggressive athletic rim pressure. But then he also 556 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 2: could slow down and be methodical and pick and roll 557 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 2: and like set his man up first screen and get 558 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 2: him stuck on his backside and kind of methodically work 559 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 2: into the lane and use his eyes to look off 560 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 2: help them and wait for opening to generate, and then 561 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 2: like step through. He'd used fakes and nifty little step 562 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 2: throughs for like nice layups and like little short floaters. 563 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 2: I called him Luca Light because that's what it looked 564 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: like when I was watching him in pick and roll. 565 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 2: There was very there was a very methodical process there. 566 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 2: He was good at drawing fouls, he was good at 567 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,480 Speaker 2: making all the reads that would happen in pick and roll. 568 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 2: And so I actually said in our season preview for Portland, 569 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 2: I was like, I think he's gonna put up monster 570 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:29,719 Speaker 2: numbers this season, especially with Scoot Henderson being out. And 571 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 2: I've been right on both counts so far, a fourth 572 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 2: of the way through the season, Shaden's averaging twenty one 573 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 2: points per game, but it's come through inefficient shot chucking. 574 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 2: He's forty four percent from the field, twenty six percent 575 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,000 Speaker 2: from three, and he has more turnovers than he has assists. 576 00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,240 Speaker 2: To be clear, it's not like I'm out on Shaden. 577 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 2: Sharp or anything like that. He's twenty two years old, 578 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 2: He's got plenty of time to refine things, and he's 579 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,959 Speaker 2: obviously still bursting at the seams with talent. But I 580 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,360 Speaker 2: just think he's a few years away from really becoming 581 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 2: one of those high impact players in the league. But 582 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 2: Denny Avdia, he's arguably been the most improved player in 583 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 2: the league this year. Twenty six points, seven rebounds, and 584 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 2: six assists on sixty three percent true shooting, efficient shot creation, 585 00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 2: all the same things I talked about in that season preview, 586 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 2: slashing when he can slash, getting downhill in ball screens 587 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 2: and putting the defender in jail, and methodically working the 588 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 2: middle of the floor using his eyes to create openings 589 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 2: and finding nifty shot angles around the basket for layups 590 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 2: and for little short bits of shot making, the playmaking 591 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 2: and pick and roll. He's been vitally important to their 592 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,199 Speaker 2: offense this season, and everything that I saw in that 593 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 2: offseason film session has come to fruition as he has 594 00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 2: really exploded onto the scene as an awesome player for 595 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: Portland this year. And want to move from their front 596 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 2: office identifying a guy that was not valued in Washington 597 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 2: and turning him into a real foundational piece out there 598 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: in Portland. Really the biggest area of improvement that I've 599 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 2: noticed for Denny that I think is the next step 600 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:57,720 Speaker 2: for him going from like what he is now to 601 00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 2: being like a guy who could compete for an All 602 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 2: Star spot. It's the off the dribble shooting, specifically from three, 603 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,680 Speaker 2: and I've been calling this out periodically throughout the season, 604 00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 2: but he just has a little bit of a hitch 605 00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,280 Speaker 2: in his shot which causes him to lose power on 606 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 2: his way up. It's that energy transfer, that fluidity and 607 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 2: off the dribble shooting, and he just ends up leaving 608 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 2: a lot of his jumpers short off the front of 609 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 2: the rim as a result. But Denny Afdia has been 610 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 2: absolutely crushing it this year. That was one of the 611 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 2: things that I got right this summer our fourth wrong. 612 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 2: I thought the Clippers would be a top six seed 613 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,960 Speaker 2: in the West this year. I actually said I thought 614 00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 2: they had the best chance to be a home court 615 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 2: team in the first round out of the second tier 616 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 2: team so out of Clippers, Lakers, Wolves, Warriors, I thought 617 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 2: the Clippers had the best chance to end up with 618 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 2: the highest seed out of that group, and My reasoning 619 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 2: was all the same reasons why I was high on 620 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 2: them the year before, right, the stuff we talked about 621 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,800 Speaker 2: in that Sun segment, depth of perimeter athletes, strong defensive anchor, 622 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 2: floor raising offensive talent, and Harden. But adding to that 623 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,120 Speaker 2: a healthy Kawhi Leonard to start the season, and depth 624 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: in the form of guys like. 625 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. 626 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: I just thought they'd win a lot of regular season games, 627 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,440 Speaker 2: and I was incredibly wrong. Now this one, I'm cutting 628 00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,160 Speaker 2: myself a little bit of slack because everyone's been wrong 629 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 2: on this one. Like if I would have told you 630 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 2: before the season, like Zubats and Kawhi and James Harden. 631 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 2: Here are their counting stats from this season. Hear how 632 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 2: many games they've played in. There's not a single person 633 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 2: in the world that would have them below five hundred, 634 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 2: let alone six and eighteen and the fourteenth best record 635 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 2: in the West. Everyone was wrong about the Clippers, but 636 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,000 Speaker 2: I was wrong about the Clippers as well, so I'm 637 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 2: putting them in here. It's been a handful of things. 638 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 2: The loss of Norman Palas definitely hurt the offense. I've 639 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 2: said this before. I don't blame the Clippers here, tying 640 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 2: up Norm on a long term deal didn't make a 641 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,479 Speaker 2: ton of sense for their long term flexibility, and they 642 00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 2: had to plan. They had a savvy little plan for 643 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 2: how to make up for that. Well, we're going to 644 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 2: turn him into John Collins, and then we're going to 645 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 2: sign Bradley Beale to kind of replicate some of his 646 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 2: role there. Kawi's healthy this year, so we're not gonna 647 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 2: need Norman Pale as much offensively as we did at 648 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 2: the beginning of last season. It made sense at the time. 649 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 2: In hindsight, there was some data that showed the Clippers 650 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 2: were a much better offense with Norm on the floor 651 00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:58,239 Speaker 2: versus off. 652 00:30:58,320 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: Last year. 653 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 2: One seventeen offense of rating with Norman Palell on the 654 00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 2: floor won thirteen with him off. But that's not like 655 00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 2: that crazy of a gap. It's not like it was 656 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,200 Speaker 2: like some twelve point gap is four point gap and 657 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,160 Speaker 2: again like they thought John Collins and Bradley Beal would 658 00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,239 Speaker 2: cover for it, and then Bradley Beal broke his hit 659 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,240 Speaker 2: and he's out for the season. So the long and 660 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,360 Speaker 2: short of it is, their offense hasn't been as good 661 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 2: and their defense has been futured, and everyone's got blame here. 662 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 2: Their defense was bad even when Derek Jones Junior was 663 00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 2: healthy at the start of the year. I think James 664 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 2: Harden and i Viatz Zubats in particular have both been 665 00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 2: pretty bad compared to last year. The main statistical differences is, 666 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 2: if you really dig into it, have been at the 667 00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 2: three point line on the offensive glass and their transition defense. 668 00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,240 Speaker 2: They were a top ten three point defense last year. 669 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 2: This year they're allowing the second most made threes per 670 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 2: one hundred possessions in the entire NBA. They've gone from 671 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 2: being the best defensive rebounding team in the entire league, 672 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,720 Speaker 2: number one to twelve. It's a pretty big drop off. 673 00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 2: And look, I know they wore shirts in training camp about, 674 00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 2: you know, emphasizing transition defense that the fuck slogan where 675 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 2: it's like floor balance, urgency communication and know that we 676 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 2: lost to Denver because transition. But they wore the shirts 677 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 2: and they didn't do anything to actually address the problem. 678 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 2: Because cleaning the glasses catch all transition metric. It's like 679 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 2: points added per one hundred possessions in transition that has 680 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 2: them at twenty ninth in the NBA and transition defense 681 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 2: this season, so just a couple of crucial falloffs and 682 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,240 Speaker 2: some key areas, and their offense hasn't been as good. 683 00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 2: You've got a six and eighteen. You've got a six 684 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 2: and eighteen team to start this particular season, all right, 685 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 2: by fourth, right, the Desmond bane fit in Orlando will 686 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 2: be perfect. 687 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: Right. 688 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 2: When this trade went down, I absolutely loved it. There 689 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,400 Speaker 2: was this idea that I've been hitting on a lot, 690 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,320 Speaker 2: centering around a lot. The example I'd use the most was, 691 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 2: like Jamal Murray, But like your value as a basketball 692 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 2: player is unique to your situation. What does your team 693 00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 2: need is Jamal Murray? You know, in a vacuum the 694 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 2: best two guard in the NBA. No, certainly not, but 695 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 2: like he's so uniquely valuable in what Denver's offensive system 696 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 2: needs from that position that his level of impact is 697 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 2: as high as most of the two guards. 698 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 1: In the league. 699 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 2: Desmond Bine in Orlando, very similar type of situation in 700 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 2: the first round of the n Season Tournament. The job 701 00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 2: he did just picking apart Miami's drop coverage, Like he 702 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 2: is your stereotypical If you chase him over the top 703 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 2: of the screen and you sit back in a drop 704 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 2: he's going to kill you. Because if you lay a 705 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 2: screen on the guy, he's gonna hit a three. If 706 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 2: he gets a decent amount of separation, he can score 707 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 2: in the mid range against the drop. If you show 708 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 2: up at the level, he can drive past the guy. 709 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 2: If you show up at the level, he can make 710 00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 2: the passing reads out of it. It unlocks those four 711 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,480 Speaker 2: on threes which were basically non existent through this era 712 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,560 Speaker 2: of Orlando Magic basketball. He's just been such a natural 713 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 2: shoe in fit with this Orlando Magic team that was 714 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 2: so obvious to me right when the trade was made. 715 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 2: I actually loved the deal as just kind of like 716 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 2: an opportunistic way to improve the roster and compliment what 717 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 2: they already had going on. Love that move, Orlando, and 718 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 2: it is easily paid off for them to start the season. 719 00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,640 Speaker 2: They are five points better per one hundred possessions with 720 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 2: him on versus off. He just created that little extra 721 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 2: bit of offensive flow to help them capitalize on their 722 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:16,319 Speaker 2: defense and their rebounding, and then once again basically got 723 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 2: you a win that you would not have got otherwise 724 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,560 Speaker 2: in that first round game against the Miami Heat in 725 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 2: the N Season Tournament. My fifth wrong, my skepticism surrounding 726 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,839 Speaker 2: Austin Reeves is the Lakers number two. So I left 727 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,160 Speaker 2: last season kind of feeling like, you know, maybe Austin 728 00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 2: Reeves is the trade piece for the Lakers to set 729 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 2: up whatever their era looks like after Luca or with Luca, 730 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 2: after Lebron, And my thought process there was pretty simple, 731 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 2: like Luca's kind of a negative athlete. Austin Reeves negative athlete. 732 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 2: He struggled against, specifically switching schemes and specifically teams that 733 00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 2: can really put athletic perimeter players on him, that can 734 00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,720 Speaker 2: kind of overwhelm him. I'm sitting there, like, I like Austin. 735 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,680 Speaker 2: It wasn't like an Austin take. I'm a big fan 736 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 2: of Austin regardless, but I was just sitting there thinking like, 737 00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 2: maybe he'd be better suited playing in a situation where 738 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 2: he's the one negative athlete in the lineup, where you know, 739 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,400 Speaker 2: imagine him in a situation like with Orlando, kind of 740 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,720 Speaker 2: in the Desmond Bain role, Like he'd be so perfect 741 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,200 Speaker 2: in that type of role. That's what I was thinking 742 00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,680 Speaker 2: coming out of last season. I was wrong about that 743 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 2: Austin Reeves is the best possible number two that Lucas 744 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 2: had to this point in his career. Obviously, Jalen Brunson 745 00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:36,400 Speaker 2: ended up leaving and going in a to a different 746 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:40,120 Speaker 2: situation and became better since then. And Kyrie Irving provided 747 00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,680 Speaker 2: this unbelievable shot making piece which it brought a lot 748 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:49,000 Speaker 2: of value, especially in the especially in that like playoff context. 749 00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 2: But Austin Reeves has been one of the very best 750 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 2: pick and role players in the entire NBA this season. 751 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,759 Speaker 2: Austin Reeves has become so damn good that there is 752 00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 2: no version of an Austin Reeves trade where you can 753 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 2: move him and get a player back that would make 754 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:09,040 Speaker 2: this team better. He's become that good and whatever athleticism 755 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,600 Speaker 2: deficit you think exists there, which it does, it does. 756 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 2: Like if Austin and Luka are your two best players, 757 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:17,840 Speaker 2: you certainly have an athleticism deficit, but I don't care anymore. 758 00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 2: He's become so good on offense that he legitimately overcomes 759 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 2: any sort of downside that comes from his athleticism. So, 760 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,840 Speaker 2: for instance, like let's say you're building the Lakers moving forward, 761 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 2: you can get away with a level of defensive talent 762 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,839 Speaker 2: at the you know, two other perimeter spots and at 763 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,200 Speaker 2: the center position that you wouldn't be able to get 764 00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 2: away with if Austin Reeves was more of like an 765 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 2: athletic like just call let's just say, for the sake 766 00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 2: of example, let's pretend like Drew Holliday when. 767 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,239 Speaker 1: He was with the Bucks. So like a. 768 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 2: Circa twenty twenty one Drew Holiday, Like that version of 769 00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,040 Speaker 2: the player is like not anywhere near as good on 770 00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 2: offense as Austin is, but like just an awesome defensive player, 771 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:08,560 Speaker 2: right like in that specific. 772 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:09,320 Speaker 1: Kind of construct. 773 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 2: You look at that and you go like, oh, would 774 00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,880 Speaker 2: Austin Reeves or would Luka Doncicch be better with that 775 00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,319 Speaker 2: type of player? In previous versions of Austin when he 776 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:19,520 Speaker 2: wasn't as good offensively, you could talk me into that, 777 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:21,880 Speaker 2: like yeah, like Luca would be better off with a 778 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 2: really athletic two guard that like can do some scoring 779 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 2: and can do some playmaking, but like Lucas carrying the 780 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,880 Speaker 2: main offensive load. Austin is so good on offense now 781 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 2: that he is a much better option as that number 782 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,640 Speaker 2: two than any other type of like two way type 783 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 2: of player you could put in that spot. Austin, if 784 00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,279 Speaker 2: the season ended today, would be all NBA. He'd be 785 00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 2: third team all NBA. He's been one of the fifteen 786 00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:49,560 Speaker 2: best players in the entire NBA this season. He's somewhere 787 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 2: around like the fifth, sixth or seventh best guard in 788 00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 2: the entire NBA already. So, like, whether or not Austin 789 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 2: can be the Lakers number two, that's resolved at this point. 790 00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 2: He is your number two. It's Luca and Austin for 791 00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,800 Speaker 2: the future. You just figure out a way to build 792 00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 2: around them. He's become that good on offense, and like, again, 793 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,080 Speaker 2: one of the big differences, last thing I'll say about it, 794 00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,759 Speaker 2: one of the big differences between Austin and some of 795 00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,960 Speaker 2: these other big shot creating players around the NBA. Austin 796 00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:21,200 Speaker 2: grew as a role player, which means, like he's very 797 00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:22,240 Speaker 2: fundamentally sound. 798 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 1: The guy. 799 00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,360 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna say it and pretend he never makes mistakes, 800 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,399 Speaker 2: but like, the dude doesn't miss as many box outs 801 00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,759 Speaker 2: as most people, most offensive minded players do. The dude 802 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,719 Speaker 2: doesn't lose track of shooters as much as most offensive 803 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,240 Speaker 2: players do. The dude has a really good natural feel 804 00:38:36,280 --> 00:38:38,840 Speaker 2: for four positioning, off ball spacing, all these like little 805 00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 2: role player things he scraps like crazy on the on 806 00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,920 Speaker 2: the defensive, glass He's been a huge part of the 807 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:47,240 Speaker 2: Lakers defensive rebounding this season. Even when he's not getting 808 00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 2: the ball, he's like tapping at it and competing for 809 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:54,400 Speaker 2: those contested rebounds. Like Austin is just an incredibly well rounded, 810 00:38:54,960 --> 00:39:00,840 Speaker 2: solid defensive player, rebounding player, role player that is also 811 00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:02,879 Speaker 2: one of the very best offensive players in this league. 812 00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,160 Speaker 2: And he is very clearly the best number two for 813 00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,879 Speaker 2: this era alongside Luka doncicsr. Last one before we get 814 00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,080 Speaker 2: out of here today the fifth right, I talked about 815 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 2: how over the summer I expected the Charlotte Hornets to 816 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,960 Speaker 2: be bad again, and it's kind of funny because there 817 00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:24,520 Speaker 2: was all of this like NBA hipster enthusiasm surrounding Charlotte 818 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:27,480 Speaker 2: coming into the season, and it centered around like several 819 00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,799 Speaker 2: specific things, a couple of young players. The people like, 820 00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,120 Speaker 2: there's a lot of optimism surrounding kon k Nipple. And 821 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:34,640 Speaker 2: for the record, I was high on Conkiniple too coming 822 00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,680 Speaker 2: into the draft. I think Conk Nipple's awesome and he's 823 00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 2: proven that by the way. Kan k Nipple's been fantastic. 824 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,440 Speaker 2: Eighteen points per game, five rebounds, three is says sixty 825 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 2: one percent through shooting shooting over forty percent from three 826 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,880 Speaker 2: and eight attempts per game. I liked him as a 827 00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,000 Speaker 2: prospect coming in just because how big and strong he was. 828 00:39:48,040 --> 00:39:49,840 Speaker 2: I just I'm a big believer that, like, when you 829 00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,040 Speaker 2: can shoot the way that he can shoot, you're gonna 830 00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,280 Speaker 2: get players chasing you. If you're gonna get players chasing 831 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,960 Speaker 2: you, you can use your size and strength to keep physical 832 00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,080 Speaker 2: everge on and to keep him trapped. And he was 833 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,239 Speaker 2: just such a good, like thotical kind of passer in 834 00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:03,120 Speaker 2: the middle of the floor at Duke. I was like, 835 00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,120 Speaker 2: this guy's just going to be a really good NBA player. 836 00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:07,120 Speaker 2: I was always a big believer in Kank Nipple. It 837 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,840 Speaker 2: wasn't about that, but like some all those NBA hipsters 838 00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,719 Speaker 2: kind of took that the idea of what kN K 839 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,000 Speaker 2: Nipple was. And you know, I like Brandon Miller too. 840 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 2: There's a lot of people like Brandon Miller. LaMelo Ball 841 00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,600 Speaker 2: still has quite a cult following, and they turned that 842 00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,480 Speaker 2: into like, oh, they're gonna win a bunch of NBA 843 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:25,400 Speaker 2: regular season games. It's like, it's really damn hard to 844 00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,640 Speaker 2: win in the NBA. And all I could think when 845 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,960 Speaker 2: I looked at that roster is like, they still don't 846 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,320 Speaker 2: have any good defensive players, they still have an incredibly 847 00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,040 Speaker 2: weak defensive front court. I just didn't see a universe 848 00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:38,799 Speaker 2: where they were going to be able to actually like 849 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 2: win games beyond just being exciting and fun to watch 850 00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,200 Speaker 2: on League Pass. Because they have some talented young players, 851 00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:47,640 Speaker 2: and that's more or less than exactly what's happened. They're 852 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,480 Speaker 2: twenty fifth in defensive raiding this year. They're twenty fifth 853 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 2: in turnover percentage. I talked before the season, LaMelo Ball, 854 00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,640 Speaker 2: super exciting player, dude can't stay on the floor. LaMelo 855 00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,759 Speaker 2: Ball and Brandon Miller once again missing a bunch of 856 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:02,399 Speaker 2: games this year, And they're seven and seventeen right now 857 00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:05,200 Speaker 2: as of this recording on Wednesday, and they are destined 858 00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:09,360 Speaker 2: to once again miss a ten team playoff field in 859 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:13,080 Speaker 2: a wide open Eastern Conference that doesn't really have a 860 00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,920 Speaker 2: truly great team. And so, like again, like it was 861 00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:17,560 Speaker 2: just one of those things where I just didn't see it, 862 00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,399 Speaker 2: Like when everyone was talking about how good they thought 863 00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,479 Speaker 2: the Hornets would be, like, I just didn't see how 864 00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:27,200 Speaker 2: that would materialize into actual on court success. Even if 865 00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,520 Speaker 2: I did like Konk Nipple as a prospect, which I 866 00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:31,520 Speaker 2: certainly do. And he's you know, he's got a shot 867 00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:33,160 Speaker 2: to win Rookie of the Year this year, that's how 868 00:41:33,200 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 2: good he's been. But I ended up being right about 869 00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,920 Speaker 2: the hornets there. All right, guys, it's all I have 870 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,440 Speaker 2: for today. As always, a sincerely appreciate you guys for 871 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,640 Speaker 2: supporting us and supporting the show. Again, we don't have 872 00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,680 Speaker 2: a traditional weekend off at this point. We're going Saturday 873 00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,719 Speaker 2: night for the in season tournament semi finals, So come 874 00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,719 Speaker 2: hang out on YouTube after the final buzzer of those 875 00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,239 Speaker 2: semi final games on Saturday night. 876 00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:54,480 Speaker 1: I will see you guys then