Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host. It's a super Bowl edition of Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. I am Paul charchy In. My co host
Speaker 1: this week is Matt Harrison. Hello, it's been a month,
Speaker 1: it has Yeah, we've missed you. Yeah, you know, got
Speaker 1: through the COVID again again. My voice is starting to
Speaker 1: come back. I was sounding a little gravelly. I was like,
Speaker 1: I was like, I almost kind of sound like Brian
Speaker 1: right now. But Brian did a great job breaking down
Speaker 1: all the games I thought for the playoff rounds, and
Speaker 1: uh yeah I was. I was listening while I was
Speaker 1: while I was away, and happy gave me back. All right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm glad to have you back. We're gonna we're gonna
Speaker 1: break down this game Fantasy Football Weekly style with a
Speaker 1: letter grades on every player for the Super Bowl, and
Speaker 1: then you're gonna come in and give us some of
Speaker 1: your absurd prop bets that are all actual bests. Right, Yes,
Speaker 1: you can make Yeah, I got a whole bunch of
Speaker 1: prop bets, ranging from some some really silly ones to
Speaker 1: just ones ones that are actually football related that I
Speaker 1: think might actually hit. So and if people want to
Speaker 1: play along with your prop bet game, they can go
Speaker 1: to shock fantasy dot com and they can download your
Speaker 1: your prop bet game sheet, your super Bowl party. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's my eleventh year making it now and I've been
Speaker 1: selling it on Shock Fantasy for the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: and we you know, a couple of hundred people play
Speaker 1: it every year. It's it's pretty fun and I shoot
Speaker 1: out all the answers to it, so you can kind
Speaker 1: of follow along on Twitter as I live tweet the
Speaker 1: answers and everybody has a good time. The big highlight
Speaker 1: of of the whole prop bet game in the last
Speaker 1: decade was I always put one question on there will
Speaker 1: a fan run on the field during the game. We've
Speaker 1: had that at least once, right happened to last year.
Speaker 1: Last year there was and and it's always a throwaway.
Speaker 1: It's a free if you answer no, it's ten points
Speaker 1: if you answer yes. It was three hundred fifty two
Speaker 1: last year. But it's always a throwaway because everybody's like
Speaker 1: it never happens. The security at the super Bowl, all
Speaker 1: that stuff. It's it's a free ten points. It happened
Speaker 1: last year. My son, my sixteen year old at the time, son,
Speaker 1: he was the only one who went. He won the
Speaker 1: wouldn't you hit it? Because the ratio is one? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I'd have played it that way every time,
Speaker 1: or at least I downgraded it quite a bit this
Speaker 1: year because it broke the game. I bet, I bet,
Speaker 1: and your son won. He won it. Therefore you have
Speaker 1: to switch it to he can't. He can't win again
Speaker 1: because I won the year before and and this this, this,
Speaker 1: the suggression will not stand. Yeah. I like that. You
Speaker 1: gotta you gotta, you gotta give your kid a beat
Speaker 1: down whenever you can. All Right, So that's what's coming
Speaker 1: up on Fantasy Football Weekly. Let's let's dive into the games.
Speaker 1: Uh And I've got the pledgure of breaking down this game.
Speaker 1: Jump in whenever you want, man, And I'm gonna start
Speaker 1: on the Cincinnati side, and I'm gonna start with the
Speaker 1: running game, which I am not a fan of. I
Speaker 1: am really down in Joe Mixon. Were this a betting podcast,
Speaker 1: I'd be telling you about taking the under on Joe
Speaker 1: Mixon podcast After the Break A little bit um so
Speaker 1: it he looks like a guy who is laboring under
Speaker 1: the burden of three hundred thirty five touches this year.
Speaker 1: That's Derrick Henry, it really is. He's averaging over the
Speaker 1: last eight games, Joe Mixon is averaging three point four
Speaker 1: yards per carry. That's kind of that's the stuff that
Speaker 1: we that gets you cut. If you're not the lead
Speaker 1: runner on your team, that's bad. And then he plays
Speaker 1: the Rams correct, that's gonna be a bigger problem. I'll
Speaker 1: get to that in just a second. You might be
Speaker 1: tempted to think, well, Okay, he's been laboring under all
Speaker 1: these carries, but he's had the week off. But I
Speaker 1: will remind you, Matt he had the week off in
Speaker 1: week eighteen. Oh and he came back the next week
Speaker 1: with a forty eight yard game on two and a
Speaker 1: half yards per carry. And that was against a Raiders
Speaker 1: team that wasn't a great run defense either, not at all.
Speaker 1: In fact, a very favorable run defense. So there's no
Speaker 1: guarantee that week the week off will help Joe Mixon. Here,
Speaker 1: the Rams were the second best run defense in the
Speaker 1: second half of the season, giving up just three point
Speaker 1: four yards per carry. If that were applied to a
Speaker 1: full season, they would have been the number one run
Speaker 1: defense in the NFL. And Um, the positive for Joe
Speaker 1: Mixon is the heavy usage through the air. Lately. He's
Speaker 1: top twenty seven yards through the year in five straight games,
Speaker 1: but prior to that, he wasn't really catching at all.
Speaker 1: He was averaging two catches fourteen yards of game. So
Speaker 1: these last five games, I mean, it's trending the right way,
Speaker 1: but it you know, if you look over the bulk
Speaker 1: of his entire career and even the season, Joe Mixon
Speaker 1: was not a reliable pass catcher. C grade on Joe Mixon.
Speaker 1: There's a there's a better reliable pass catcher from the
Speaker 1: SINC backfield that we'll talk about later. Okay, I'm sure,
Speaker 1: oh here talking about And he's trending the white right
Speaker 1: way with more catches too, all right, So let's go
Speaker 1: to the passing game, and Jamar Chase is electrifying. Of course,
Speaker 1: he's averaging a whopping nine targets per games since weeks
Speaker 1: week sixteen. Nine times, wait the nine times, we got it?
Speaker 1: Thank heavens. Um, he's uh, he has topped nine six
Speaker 1: yards in seven of the last nine games for Jamaar Chase.
Speaker 1: But will Chase see Jalen Ramsey is the big question.
Speaker 1: I think the answer is probably and mostly but not
Speaker 1: necessarily probably mostly yes, um, so people see him each other,
Speaker 1: so Chase can ruin the game in a way. Northern
Speaker 1: Bengal Ken the Rams know that they've got to put
Speaker 1: Ramsey on Chase a fair amount, if not all the time,
Speaker 1: almost all the time, But historically the Rams would prefer
Speaker 1: to use Ramsey on a more physical wide out, and
Speaker 1: that would be te Higgins. So I don't know that
Speaker 1: there's a there's some kind of a mandate for Ramsey
Speaker 1: to chase him around. And then the next question, is
Speaker 1: Ramsey a death sentence for Jamaar Chase. The answer is
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, here's why he's Profitball focuses number
Speaker 1: one ranked coverage cornerback. Over the course of the full season,
Speaker 1: Ramsey is giving up thirty five yards per game and
Speaker 1: point two touchdowns per game in his that's it. So
Speaker 1: that doesn't bode well for Jamaar Chase if Ramsey's on him.
Speaker 1: Also a solid tackler, he only missed eight tackles the
Speaker 1: entire year, twenty games this year, played them all only
Speaker 1: misstate tackles all year, and he's giving up just fourteen
Speaker 1: yards of yak per game. That's not much. That's not
Speaker 1: a lot of yak. So but you know, we don't
Speaker 1: know for sure that Ramsey's gonna be on Chase, but
Speaker 1: you gotta figure Ramsey's gonna be on Chase a lot,
Speaker 1: and hasn't. Ramsey played a lot of one side of
Speaker 1: the field mostly this year, and they deployed him as
Speaker 1: a depends It's a great question, depends on who they're
Speaker 1: facing against teams that have one alpha receiver, Ramsey shadows
Speaker 1: teams that have two Alpha receivers. Ramsey tends to play
Speaker 1: one Bengals like the Bengals have kind of So this
Speaker 1: is why I'm saying, we just nobody outside of l
Speaker 1: A really knows for sure how Ramsey were gonna is
Speaker 1: gonna work. So it feels like it's going to be
Speaker 1: probably a sixty forty split could be, but it's it's
Speaker 1: hard to know for sure. And if I were the Bengals,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't want to let Jamar Chase wreck my wreck
Speaker 1: my game, and I put Ramsey on him more than
Speaker 1: I otherwise would absolutely all right, let's talky about te Higgins,
Speaker 1: since we've alluded to him a number of times. If
Speaker 1: you do believe that the Rams are gonna do whatever
Speaker 1: is necessary to stop Jamar Chase from single handedly beating them,
Speaker 1: t Higgins can do well in non Ramsey coverage. You know,
Speaker 1: I was looking for teams, other teams to face the
Speaker 1: Rams that had two good receivers, and how the other
Speaker 1: receiver did Brandon Ayou hundred in seven yards in Week
Speaker 1: eighteen and then seventy yards in the NFC Championship Game.
Speaker 1: A J This is recently a J Green put up
Speaker 1: a hundred two yards in a secondary rule. So you
Speaker 1: know there are some cases where we've seen the number
Speaker 1: two receiver do particularly well. I've got a B grade
Speaker 1: and Tie Higgins I should mention a B grade on
Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase as well. Both are fair. Tyler Boyd is
Speaker 1: also a B grade. Real. I like Boyd a lot
Speaker 1: in this matchup. So we know, the one place we
Speaker 1: know Jalen Ramsey's not going to be is in the slot. Okay,
Speaker 1: he is not gonna get any Jalen Ramsey um. And
Speaker 1: Tyler Boyd's actually on the field even more than Tee Higgins.
Speaker 1: He's a slot receivers on the field more than Tee
Speaker 1: Higgins is higher snap count. He's had five or more
Speaker 1: targets in eight of the last nine games. Tyler Boyd
Speaker 1: has and some other slot receivers have done very well
Speaker 1: in the slot against l A. Recent matchups include Deebo
Speaker 1: Samuel three meetings against this team, since we tend primarily
Speaker 1: not only but prepared primarily running from the slot, seventy
Speaker 1: two yards and ninety seven yards and ninety five yards
Speaker 1: Christian Kirk twice since week fourteen fifty one yards, eighty
Speaker 1: six yards, Randall Cobb ninety five yards, kJ Osbourne sixty
Speaker 1: eight yards. These are all second half of the season
Speaker 1: slot performances. I can hear you on all of those.
Speaker 1: The debo thing is kind of broken, but the other ones,
Speaker 1: they're still good numbers there. So I do like that
Speaker 1: from a slot perspective, and he's probably worth throwing in
Speaker 1: a few DFS lineups if you're playing Tyler Boyd and betting,
Speaker 1: and he's gonna be cheap his UH over under his
Speaker 1: only I believe thirty two yards Tyler. I'm I like
Speaker 1: the over um on for Tyler Boyd quite a bit. Um.
Speaker 1: The last guy I want to talk about is the
Speaker 1: quarterback Joe Burrow. Um. I like, I've got all these
Speaker 1: B grades and his receivers, So I like Joe Burrow. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't love him here. I gotta give him a B, right,
Speaker 1: I gotta give him a B with of all those
Speaker 1: receivers were be I gotta give him a B. So
Speaker 1: I did. Um. I love his ability to play his
Speaker 1: best in big games. Right. So, whether you want to
Speaker 1: look at these playoffs, you want look at the l
Speaker 1: s U championship, if you want to look at his
Speaker 1: high school championship game in which he his offense through
Speaker 1: for fifty two points and lost. He said he was
Speaker 1: more nervous for his high school championship game than he
Speaker 1: was for the l s U National Championship game because
Speaker 1: now he's now, he's had the reps, and he's never
Speaker 1: lost a playoff game in college or the pros. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he did in the high school. I lost that one,
Speaker 1: but his team put a fifty two points. He's like,
Speaker 1: never again, never again shall I lose in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Over the last nine games, the Rams are good, not
Speaker 1: dominating past defense, but they're good. Over the last nine games,
Speaker 1: they're allowing half a touchdown pass and two yards per game.
Speaker 1: And over that stretch they faced Kyler Murray twice, Russell Wilson,
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins. So some good quarterbacks all right
Speaker 1: in that mix for Joe Burrow. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: ram side. Um, Let's start with the running game here.
Speaker 1: I do not like this running game. I do not
Speaker 1: like them, Sam, I am no. So let's not Cam Acres.
Speaker 1: He's he's still dealing to at least some degree with
Speaker 1: the shoulder injury from the game two weeks ago. Fumbles
Speaker 1: have hurt him, injuries have hurt him, but more than
Speaker 1: anything else, he hasn't look that good. He's averaging two
Speaker 1: point six yards per carry since his return. Okay, that's it.
Speaker 1: That's not great. He's done. Honestly, he's done nothing to
Speaker 1: warrant the start over Sony Michelle. I mean, if you
Speaker 1: just just took those separate players, and you know I
Speaker 1: feel about Sony Walkman. I'm not here to make any
Speaker 1: excuses for Sony Walkerman. He's he's been better than the
Speaker 1: version of cam Akers that we've seen. Some Acres has
Speaker 1: seen the Niners run defense, which is pretty good is twice. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's seen the Bucks run defense, which is where the
Speaker 1: best in the league, and then the Cardinals, which they
Speaker 1: were much improved this year as well. So and the
Speaker 1: Bengals are bad. For a second here, um, but I
Speaker 1: think there's a real scenario where Acres, maybe there's only
Speaker 1: a five percent chance it doesn't even get the start.
Speaker 1: They go to Michelle who's healthy, uh and more effective,
Speaker 1: or they do hot hand where you know, they try
Speaker 1: both guys early and Michelle looks better that he just
Speaker 1: runs away with this thing and we don't even see Acres.
Speaker 1: That scenario is definitely out there based on how Acres
Speaker 1: has played. Fortunately, the Bengals run defense is a real weakness.
Speaker 1: The biggest weakness on the whole team is the run defense,
Speaker 1: giving a four point eight yards per carrying the second
Speaker 1: half of the regular season and five and a half
Speaker 1: yards per carrying the playoffs. Well, and Jerick McKinnon looked
Speaker 1: awesome in the first half of that game against the
Speaker 1: Bengals in the conference championship game, and then inexplicably, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs just stopped running the ball in the second half
Speaker 1: and and they lost because of it, I think so.
Speaker 1: I I think that McVeigh has seen that, and I
Speaker 1: think that there will be a healthy dose of running
Speaker 1: in this game for the Rams, just not sure to whom. Yep,
Speaker 1: it could be a good fifty fifty split in this one.
Speaker 1: So I've got Acres with the Seep, got Sony Michelle
Speaker 1: with the Sea. Darren Henderson is expected to be available
Speaker 1: for this game, but I do not trust him in
Speaker 1: this one to have a meaningful role. Hasn't played in
Speaker 1: whatever six weeks, been a long time. All right, let's
Speaker 1: go to the passing game. I want to start with
Speaker 1: Cooper Cup. Oh really right, Um, I'm the only guy
Speaker 1: that's that's a little nervous about Cooper Cup. I heard
Speaker 1: you talking with p a On on the on the
Speaker 1: Football Feast today and you were you were explaining why
Speaker 1: you thought the under on his over under on the
Speaker 1: yards I'd hit was the was the correct play. Yes,
Speaker 1: you already know Cooper cups great. I'm not even gonna
Speaker 1: focus on his on how good Cooper Cup is, but
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about why this is
Speaker 1: a tricky matchup for him. Cooper Cup runs almost his
Speaker 1: routes from the slot. That means he's going to see
Speaker 1: Mike Hilton. These two met up, have met up one
Speaker 1: time prior two years ago and Hilton was still in
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Cooper Cup had no catches on four targets.
Speaker 1: They were Jared Goff targets. I have reason they were.
Speaker 1: They were Jared Goff targets. So that's just one day
Speaker 1: to point and it doesn't carry a lot of weight
Speaker 1: with me, but it's still out there and I want
Speaker 1: to make sure people know that Hilton is very good.
Speaker 1: He slowed a similarly explosive Tyreek Hill last week last game,
Speaker 1: allowing just twenty two yards to Tyreek Hill in his
Speaker 1: coverage in the wild card round with another tricky matchup
Speaker 1: out of the slot, Hunter renfro One catch six yards.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're gonna use history as a as
Speaker 1: a guideline, Cooper Cup has one game against the Bengals
Speaker 1: in his history. You know what he did in that game,
Speaker 1: the score, and I thought about I thought about bringing
Speaker 1: it up, but there's nobody in this secondary that was
Speaker 1: on the field bed It was three years ago too,
Speaker 1: so it was a lot of time ago. So I'm
Speaker 1: not trying to make my killing sound like the second
Speaker 1: Coming in Dion Sanders. He's good, and I think you
Speaker 1: can show a little bit of caution on Cooper Cup.
Speaker 1: I'm going he's good, but Cooper Cups is arguably the
Speaker 1: m v P of the league. I'd give him the
Speaker 1: m v And I know I'm talking to the two
Speaker 1: people You and I either two people at like Cooper
Speaker 1: Cup in the preseason more than anybody. No, but still
Speaker 1: I am showing a little bit of caution. Okay, there
Speaker 1: we go. Sooner or later I was gonna find gonna
Speaker 1: find them out right, all right, Let's talk Odell Beckham.
Speaker 1: Um surging of late with increasing receptions and yards and
Speaker 1: four straight games, and if you do believe Cup is
Speaker 1: going to be just slowed by Mike, by Mike Hilton,
Speaker 1: that could put some extra receptions towards Odell Beckham much
Speaker 1: like we have been seeing lately Um, and he'll see
Speaker 1: likely a lot of chidobe A Woozier, who is the
Speaker 1: best of the coverage corners that the Bengals have. He's
Speaker 1: been very good and he always takes He generally shadows
Speaker 1: the opposing team's best outside receiver. You won't move to
Speaker 1: the slots, he won't get Cup, but he'll be on
Speaker 1: Beckham for this game. Um Woozia is having a good season.
Speaker 1: He's profoba focuses fifteen ranked cornerback. He has given up
Speaker 1: scores in each of the last two games. I'll mention
Speaker 1: that uh Tyreek Hill scored last week in a j
Speaker 1: Brown killed him two weeks ago, two games ago, rolling
Speaker 1: up a hundred thirty four yards. But on the season,
Speaker 1: Ousia was very good. So I'm sure a little caution
Speaker 1: I'm backing, but a lot. I've got to be great
Speaker 1: on him, and I think he gets some use here.
Speaker 1: And then the other receiver that we should talk about
Speaker 1: is Van Jefferson. The beauty of Van Jefferson in this
Speaker 1: game is gonna get Eli Apple for most of the game,
Speaker 1: and Apples terrible by far the weak point. Jefferson's my guy. Now.
Speaker 1: The problem is Van Jefferson is good for three targets
Speaker 1: a game. That's it. So he's hope that's all he needs. Um.
Speaker 1: He has had it that he has had either one
Speaker 1: or two catches in seven of the last eight games.
Speaker 1: For Van Jefferson's He's got to do a lot with
Speaker 1: the catches that he does get. UM. So with Eli
Speaker 1: Apple there, I can't put him on the bench, even
Speaker 1: in only one or two catches, I'm giving him a
Speaker 1: Sea Greggs. The chance of a big game is there. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And O'Dell has been been fantastic in the last few
Speaker 1: weeks too, with eleven targets last week in the conference
Speaker 1: championship game. It's obvious that he's feeling better than he's
Speaker 1: ever felt before, Like from a headspace perspective, winning help.
Speaker 1: It feels. It feels like he's back to the old
Speaker 1: Odell that everybody wanted on their fantasy teams. Maybe this
Speaker 1: is the last glimpse of it, because he's gonna have
Speaker 1: to go for a big contract after this year. But
Speaker 1: this might be peque O'Dell maybe for the remainder of
Speaker 1: his career. Maybe um, you know what, he doesn't do
Speaker 1: the circus catches that he did with a Giant aren't
Speaker 1: are not there anymore for whatever reason. Well, he doesn't
Speaker 1: have you know, Eli Manning throwing Stafford. He's got better target.
Speaker 1: Either either they're way off there or they're right on.
Speaker 1: So let's talk a little Kendall Blanton. There we go.
Speaker 1: I love Kendall Blanton. Higby ain't going you know, they
Speaker 1: may do some smoke screw ruse about Higbee maybe playing
Speaker 1: through his m c l. It's not gonna happen. McVeigh
Speaker 1: and Stafford have shown no hesitation in using Blanton. Last week,
Speaker 1: they targeted him five times. He caught all five passes
Speaker 1: put a fifty seven yards. Cincinnati very generous too tight
Speaker 1: ends this year, allowing the fourth most tight end receptions,
Speaker 1: the fourth most tight end yards, the sixth most tight
Speaker 1: end touchdowns. Kelsey murdered the Bengals last week. Darren Waller
Speaker 1: wracked up seventy six yards and seven catches in the
Speaker 1: wild card round. And I'm not saying Kendall Blanton is
Speaker 1: Kelsey or Waller obviously, but the opportunities are going to
Speaker 1: be there for Kendall Blanton, and I've got to be
Speaker 1: great on him. I got Kendall Blanton as one of
Speaker 1: my special prep bet good, we can expand on this one. Good. Uh,
Speaker 1: let's see. And then Matthew Stafford, so I've got all
Speaker 1: of his receivers have a B grade except Van Jefferson
Speaker 1: is a C grade. So I've got to be great
Speaker 1: on Stafford, which I was. It feels right. Cincinnati's twenty
Speaker 1: games this year, only three quarterbacks of top two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: So I don't think it's an explosive game coming from Stafford.
Speaker 1: But something in the neighborhood of two touchdowns and two
Speaker 1: hundred sixty two yards sounds about right here, and that
Speaker 1: gives them a be great all right, all right, So
Speaker 1: there's your breakdown on the Super Bowl. Easy. It all
Speaker 1: sounds so simple now, sounds so simple. But and then
Speaker 1: the game seven to ten, it will all be garbage.
Speaker 1: Who is your pick to win the Super Bowl? Um?
Speaker 1: I've got the Rams narrowly if and when I was
Speaker 1: on the radio earlier today, Matt I said, if these
Speaker 1: teams played ten times, I think the Rams would win
Speaker 1: like six of them. So if I were betting the game,
Speaker 1: I would actually bet the Bengals money line at plus
Speaker 1: one sixty five. And but I think the Rams are
Speaker 1: more likely to win the game, if that makes sense,
Speaker 1: That are minus two hundred. So just from a pure
Speaker 1: betting standpoint, I would I'm picking the Rams to win,
Speaker 1: but I would pick the four and a half four
Speaker 1: and a half, So yeah, I think I think Bengals
Speaker 1: with the points is a play, isn't it. So those
Speaker 1: those four and a half are are definitely interesting fun. Alright,
Speaker 1: speaking of fun, Yeah, let's take a break. When we
Speaker 1: come back, I want to talk through some of your unique,
Speaker 1: odd ball, many cases prop bets for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Stay tuned for the next segment of Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Charchi and Matt Harrison
Speaker 1: with you Shock Fantasy dot Com. Yeah, you're wearing the
Speaker 1: Shock Fantasy colors, but not my kids hockey. Uh a
Speaker 1: coincidence that your kids school colors are the Salmons Act
Speaker 1: colors of Shock Fantasy. Well, yellow is my favorite color,
Speaker 1: and blue just works really well with yellow. So I mean,
Speaker 1: obviously obviously I'm on the rams apparently, so um. So yeah,
Speaker 1: let's talk some prop bets. Let's do it, baby. So
Speaker 1: I do this big prop bet game that you mentioned
Speaker 1: earlier in the show. I've been doing it for eleven years.
Speaker 1: There's actually two of them over at Chock Fantasy right now.
Speaker 1: The first one has it's the original. It's got forty
Speaker 1: one questions. It starts with the national anthem, it ends with,
Speaker 1: you know, the the end of the game, the gatorade bath,
Speaker 1: the trophy presentation, all that stuff, halftime show, all that good,
Speaker 1: good stuff. Um, lots of It's a good mix of football,
Speaker 1: actual prop bets and silly things to bet on, like
Speaker 1: like will there be a wardrobe malfunction at the halftime show? Perfect? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that's a great example, and it's really easy to
Speaker 1: All you do is you select one guess for each question.
Speaker 1: If you get it right, you get the points associated
Speaker 1: with your guests, and if you get wrong, you get zero.
Speaker 1: What did you read? You're you're going through my prop
Speaker 1: bet sheet for the first time. How many points do
Speaker 1: you get if there is a wardrobe mall function? Oh?
Speaker 1: You know it's sixty nine? Of course, of course it is.
Speaker 1: But if you don't want to play that with your children,
Speaker 1: there's also a kids version. Got the of the prop
Speaker 1: bet game that's got just twenty questions. Uh. You get
Speaker 1: both at the same uh, with the same purchase at
Speaker 1: Shock Fantasy dot com. In the shop it just click
Speaker 1: on the super Bowl prop bet game and I got
Speaker 1: a promo code for FFW listeners blue as in blue gatorade.
Speaker 1: Oh that's get off b l U b l U
Speaker 1: E gets off the super Bowl prop bet game. All right,
Speaker 1: So let's talk about some of the ridiculous prop bets
Speaker 1: that I have uh Bovada. They talk about the national
Speaker 1: anthem a lot, and everybody knows the national anthem over
Speaker 1: under all that stuff. It's it, by the way, they
Speaker 1: over under on that surprisingly low this year, and Mickey
Speaker 1: Guiton she she's clocked in at singing this for like
Speaker 1: some some big Washington d C. Festival, like seventy five seconds,
Speaker 1: which is like the lowest national let's national anthem you
Speaker 1: could sing. It's a like seven of the last eight
Speaker 1: national anthems have gone over a hundred seconds, So come on.
Speaker 1: But that's great historic data. Yeah, I got a lot
Speaker 1: of debt on stupid things about this. But Bovada has
Speaker 1: a national anthem prop for the number of planes involved
Speaker 1: in the flyover, and the odds are plus one five
Speaker 1: for over five and minus one seventy for under five.
Speaker 1: And so I did a bit of research. The plan
Speaker 1: is there's exactly five planes to take part in the flyover,
Speaker 1: so you're probably gonna push this bet right. Many of
Speaker 1: these planes are historic planes, though, including a World War
Speaker 1: two P fifty one Mustang fighter jet which is eighty
Speaker 1: years old, so it could fail. It's what you're saying,
Speaker 1: might not get off the ground. So if five is
Speaker 1: a push, you take the under just in case one
Speaker 1: of these planes to get off the ground. At the
Speaker 1: at the worst you're getting minus one seven D and
Speaker 1: you win, and at well at the worst you push,
Speaker 1: so so you could win. Yeah, let's go. Look, we're
Speaker 1: gonna get our money back if we lose this one.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be a sixth plane suddenly that hops
Speaker 1: up there. Um, the coin toss. I've got two coin
Speaker 1: toss bets here that I think people should think about here.
Speaker 1: One is an absolute lock. By the way, Um, there's
Speaker 1: a prop bed at MGM Grand that the team that
Speaker 1: wins the opening coin toss will defer, and odds are
Speaker 1: minus five hundred on that, so not great odds. It
Speaker 1: means it's gonna happen pent of the time. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: however the time. Sean McVeigh has forty eight career coin
Speaker 1: toss wins, he's deferred every single one of them, including
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl against the Patriots. Zack Taylor has twenty
Speaker 1: seven career coin toss wins. He's deferred twenty six times.
Speaker 1: So you roll that to get other when we're atentile range.
Speaker 1: There's NFL teams deferred this year so this that's a
Speaker 1: lock that's gonna happen. Like you can just make some
Speaker 1: money on that. We will make a lot of money,
Speaker 1: but we'll make not a lot, but you'll make some.
Speaker 1: The second coin toss bet, if you think the Bengals
Speaker 1: will win the game, you bet the Rams to win
Speaker 1: the coin toss because the Bengals are O and two
Speaker 1: in Super Bowl coin tosses throughout their history, and the
Speaker 1: Rams the most coin toss wins in Super Bowl history
Speaker 1: without a loss, their four and oh in coin toss history,
Speaker 1: plus the past seven teams that lost the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: coin toss went on to win the Super Bowl seven
Speaker 1: in a row. Uh So, Bovada has a couple of
Speaker 1: coin toss bets, but I found the one that you
Speaker 1: want to bet here. This bet is will the Rams
Speaker 1: win the coin toss and win the game? Oh so no,
Speaker 1: So you bet the know it's minus two twenty. But
Speaker 1: as long as the Rams don't sweep the coin toss
Speaker 1: and the game, you're in good shape. Here. Gatorade, I
Speaker 1: talked a little bit about Gatorade keyword blue, keyword blue,
Speaker 1: which one of these coaches are going to get liquid
Speaker 1: dumped on them. One of them will because it's either
Speaker 1: of their first Super Bowl victory. I've actually got twenty
Speaker 1: years of data on a spreadsheet about what color liquid
Speaker 1: was dumped on the coach. But over the last eight years,
Speaker 1: orange has happened three times, and blue has happened three times,
Speaker 1: and blue has happened two of the last three years.
Speaker 1: And it's worth noting that the main colors of each
Speaker 1: of these teams are blue and orange. The only time
Speaker 1: of liquid was not dumped on the coach, only one
Speaker 1: has orange. Well, I know, but yeah, the Rams orange
Speaker 1: for okay, I guess. Yeah. The only time liquid was
Speaker 1: not dumped on the coach. Guess who it was, Parcel Belichick.
Speaker 1: Nobody has the guts to do it, and his fifth
Speaker 1: Super Bowl win, they did not Gator Gator right on him.
Speaker 1: So Orange is coming in at a heavy favorite at
Speaker 1: plus two hundred, but the value bet is Blue at
Speaker 1: plus six hundred. Go plus six do you get the
Speaker 1: team color? Um? Two of the last three have been blue.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned. All right, let's get to some actual
Speaker 1: bets in the game. And there's one thing I know
Speaker 1: about you, Charge, I've been to Vegas with you before.
Speaker 1: You like to bet the favorite in the first half. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't have to worry about the back door cover.
Speaker 1: That's right, and the Bengals are the back door cover.
Speaker 1: T The Rams are minus three as a line in
Speaker 1: the first half of the first half over under of
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half, and if you follow first
Speaker 1: and second half trends, this game should go on the
Speaker 1: Rams favor because the Bengals are twenty five in the
Speaker 1: league in first half defense, allowing twelve point four points
Speaker 1: per game. Through the playoffs, they're allowing thirteen point three
Speaker 1: points per game in the first half of games, so
Speaker 1: it's been they have been worse in the first half.
Speaker 1: The Rams, on the other hand, are third in the
Speaker 1: league in first half points allowed at only nine point
Speaker 1: four and in their three playoff games they've allowed four
Speaker 1: point three points in the first half. Wow, that's it.
Speaker 1: So I will hammer the Rams in the first half,
Speaker 1: give up the three points. My guess is the halftime
Speaker 1: score is probably something around fourteen three. Now the over under.
Speaker 1: Here's what the teams have done in the playoffs so far.
Speaker 1: Bengals first half versus the Chiefs thirty one, the Titans fifteen,
Speaker 1: the Raiders thirty three, So two of the three went
Speaker 1: over the twenty three and a half. But the Rams
Speaker 1: under under under seventeen against the Niners, twenty three against
Speaker 1: the Bucks and twenty one against the Cardinals, So that
Speaker 1: puts it together. I'm feeling it's an under on the
Speaker 1: first half. But I like I like the Rams in
Speaker 1: the first I would I don't think i'd bet the total.
Speaker 1: I would bet the Rams. I would too. Um, Cooper Cup,
Speaker 1: you talked about how you're a little scared of Cooper
Speaker 1: Cup and and so I love Cooper Cup. But there, yap,
Speaker 1: the Mike Hilton thing worries me a little bit. Cooper
Speaker 1: Cup has had twenty touchdowns this year in twenty games.
Speaker 1: That's a lot in the first half of games. He's wait,
Speaker 1: let me guess of the twenty, how many were in
Speaker 1: the first half? Seven? You got it right, nailed it.
Speaker 1: We don't have a ding ding on there, but oh
Speaker 1: yes we do second half obviously thirteen. So if you
Speaker 1: want a Cooper Cup bet, you go with Cooper Clutch.
Speaker 1: Here's the odds on Draft Kings sports Book. Cup as
Speaker 1: an any time touchdown scorer in the second half in
Speaker 1: the second the second half, only any time in the
Speaker 1: second half. I bet it's plus close plus one eight
Speaker 1: and cup as the first touchdown score in the second
Speaker 1: half is plus three four fifty even better. So if
Speaker 1: you at a hundred dollar bet on both, if he's
Speaker 1: the first touchdown in the second half, you walk away
Speaker 1: with sixty bucks in your pocket, and if he's just
Speaker 1: as the a score, you still walk away plus eighty
Speaker 1: on that one. So I like doing both of those
Speaker 1: bets together. Now, can I give you my Kendall Blanton
Speaker 1: right here? Since we're talking about time for Kendall Blanton?
Speaker 1: All right? Have you do you also have a Kendall
Speaker 1: Blanton one right here? Well? Is it? If I wanted
Speaker 1: to do the touchdown the any time touchdown? That that's
Speaker 1: what I got. So Higby has the sprained m c L.
Speaker 1: He's probably not gonna play. Um. Blanton scored the first
Speaker 1: touchdown for the Rams in the wild card game against
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. The Bengals have allowed eight touchdowns to the
Speaker 1: tight end position in their last eleven games. That's terrible.
Speaker 1: Lots of those were high end touch or tight ends
Speaker 1: like Kelsey was in there, Andrews was in there. Um,
Speaker 1: but Tyler Croft, Foster Moreau, Pat Friar Muther in that
Speaker 1: list too, so Blanton as coming in at plus eight
Speaker 1: hundred as the first Rams touchdown score, but plus six
Speaker 1: hundred is the game's first touchdowns score. And I like
Speaker 1: those long shots. I like those shot. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: I think those are the ones that I'm kind of
Speaker 1: looking at. And I'll list my my official bets at
Speaker 1: the end here. Um. I got a couple of quarterback
Speaker 1: trends here too. Um. In the four games that the
Speaker 1: Rams lost this season, three of the four quarterbacks they
Speaker 1: faced through for exactly two touchdowns. No quarterback through for
Speaker 1: three touchdowns against the Ross year. Um. Only one other
Speaker 1: quarterback through two touchdowns against the Rams this year, and
Speaker 1: that was in their wins obviously. So if you believe
Speaker 1: the Bengals will win, it's minus one s two on
Speaker 1: the over of one and a half touchdowns for Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1: But if you believe the Rams will win, as I do,
Speaker 1: you bet against Joe Burrow here, it's plus one two
Speaker 1: on the under one and a half touchdowns betting against
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. And that's from FanDuel. Now. On the other side,
Speaker 1: and the six losses that the Bengals had this season,
Speaker 1: quarterbacks absolutely torched them. Uh, I'm gonna throw out the
Speaker 1: Bears game in Week two where Justin Fields and Andy
Speaker 1: Dalton split the game. I remember it was Dalton got
Speaker 1: knocked out of the game. Fields had to come in
Speaker 1: for his first ever NFL action. But the other five games,
Speaker 1: the average for those quarterbacks was twenty six completions, three
Speaker 1: d sixteen passing yards, and two scores. One of those
Speaker 1: was Mike White, by the way, I remember that classic
Speaker 1: Mike White four hundred five yards game. So during the playoffs,
Speaker 1: Stafford is averaging three passing yards and two scores per game. Now,
Speaker 1: if you believe the Rams will win, as I do,
Speaker 1: the over under on passing yards for Stafford is currently
Speaker 1: to seventy nine and a half. On draft kings, that's
Speaker 1: currently minus one, and the over under for passing touchdowns
Speaker 1: for Stafford is one and a half. Passing touchdowns, the
Speaker 1: over on that is minus two thirty. The completions, though,
Speaker 1: that's the key here. Completions over under for Stafford is
Speaker 1: twenty four and a half. He completed twenty eight and
Speaker 1: thirty one passes in his last two playoff games. That's
Speaker 1: against Tampa and San France, and you get plus one
Speaker 1: hundred on the over on that one, So I like, like,
Speaker 1: I like the completions one the best, but I think
Speaker 1: he probably hits the over on all of these. If
Speaker 1: you think the Rams are gonna win this game, all right? Interesting, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that makes it. It does make some sense. And finally,
Speaker 1: and and I said, as I mentioned earlier, I don't
Speaker 1: think Joe Mixon is gonna run effectively. Yep. I think
Speaker 1: it would be a lot of attempts out there to
Speaker 1: be had for perfect segue to my final weird Bengals
Speaker 1: bet som J. P Ryan total receiving yards nine and
Speaker 1: a half. It's not mine, that's not money, it's basically one. Yep.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the over. And that Peron has been
Speaker 1: pretty quiet on the rushing end of the game. That's
Speaker 1: why I'm not touching any of the rushing props. And
Speaker 1: I think the rushing prop is like three and a
Speaker 1: half or something like that him, but I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: touch it because he's had so many games with zero
Speaker 1: carries um. But he did have three catches for forty
Speaker 1: three yards against the Chiefs in the Conference championship, and
Speaker 1: he's hit ten receiving yards at least, which would hit
Speaker 1: the over in eleven of his last fifteen games, uh
Speaker 1: and through twenty games, twenty four different running backs have
Speaker 1: hit at least ten receiving yards against the Rams this year,
Speaker 1: and that doesn't include Deebo Samuel who did a lot
Speaker 1: of damage out of the backfield and his three meetings
Speaker 1: against the Rams as well. So I like the p
Speaker 1: rein over nine and a half receiving yards. So here's
Speaker 1: my official list. I'll run them all down for you
Speaker 1: under five planes on the national anthem at minus one seventy.
Speaker 1: Knowing I'm gonna push that winner of the coin toss
Speaker 1: differs at minus five hundred. That's just free money, though,
Speaker 1: I'll take Blue Gatorade at plus six hundred. I will
Speaker 1: take the Rams at minus three in the first half,
Speaker 1: and then my Kendall Blanton Bets first score plus six
Speaker 1: d and first first Rams score at plus eight hundred.
Speaker 1: I do both of those. I'll take both Cooper Cup
Speaker 1: second half touchdown props any time score in the second
Speaker 1: half at plus one eighty, first touchdown score in the
Speaker 1: second half at plus four fifty, and then Soma J.
Speaker 1: P Ryan over nine and a half and then I
Speaker 1: then that's where it diverges. If you think the Rams
Speaker 1: will win those ones. I think anybody can make a
Speaker 1: bet on, and I think that they can feel pretty confident.
Speaker 1: But if you think the Rams will win, I'll take
Speaker 1: the Stafford over on twenty four and a half completions
Speaker 1: at plus one hundred. And if you think the Bengals
Speaker 1: will win, I'll take that weird no on the Rams
Speaker 1: win the toss and the game at minus twenty and
Speaker 1: I would take the over on one and a half
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow touchdown passes at minus one. I'd like to
Speaker 1: know what that part light would pay it almost gosh, man,
Speaker 1: I should almost just put that up just to see
Speaker 1: what I wonder if FanDuel or DraftKings has all of those,
Speaker 1: because I had to collect these from a few. They
Speaker 1: don't do the oddball generally, they don't do the odd
Speaker 1: ball planes in the air kind of stuff. Probably not.
Speaker 1: That's it's not as cool. You have to go elsewhere.
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. Thank you, Matt. That was a
Speaker 1: lot of fun. One game left, and then we have
Speaker 1: a two hundred seven day break between meaningful football. Well,
Speaker 1: then the off season starts and we start gearing up
Speaker 1: for you know, dynasty and keeper fantasy and we get
Speaker 1: ready to go out free agency and draft. Oh, there's
Speaker 1: probably to talk about, but we will not be breaking
Speaker 1: down another game. Are you going out to the Combine
Speaker 1: this year? Yes, awesome, I'm going to the compe. We
Speaker 1: you should do a live Combine podcast, Fantasy Football from
Speaker 1: the from the Combine. Uh, maybe it's not a half
Speaker 1: bad idea. Actually, I mean, Paul Allen might be a
Speaker 1: good host, right, I could have the catches that the
Speaker 1: Combine is so early. It's it comes so quickly at
Speaker 1: the end of the Super Bowl, and you know, if
Speaker 1: you work in the NFL scouting department, your college scout,
Speaker 1: this feels like it's very late in the process. But
Speaker 1: for you know, for those of us that are working
Speaker 1: the NFL that aren't focused on college football, I'm just
Speaker 1: starting my college prep. I'll be starting my college prep
Speaker 1: next week, so it's it's hard to get I don't
Speaker 1: always feel up to speed by the time the Combine
Speaker 1: rolls around. That's where I'm learning. Yeah, I know, I'm
Speaker 1: kind of learning about all the rookies right now too,
Speaker 1: that are coming out. I've been doing a few mock
Speaker 1: draft simulations lately, just to kind of get familiar with
Speaker 1: the names and he's kind of fallen where and it's
Speaker 1: gonna be really interesting because there's no clear cut guy
Speaker 1: after it seems like the top two to me, So
Speaker 1: it's gonna be it's gonna be very interesting this year
Speaker 1: in the draft. Yes, we will not be talking about
Speaker 1: great quarterback opportunities, I don't think. So there's you know,
Speaker 1: there's that, and there's there's a lot of people who
Speaker 1: don't agree on who the best quarterback is class and
Speaker 1: where that players should go. And they could be one
Speaker 1: through five really, so, uh, thank you for listening. We'll
Speaker 1: be back next week with a with a look at
Speaker 1: some of depending free agents and the players that may
Speaker 1: have an opportunity to step into a vacated role. Exciting.
Speaker 1: Yeah that'll be That'll be join you for that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that would be great. We'll talk to you then everybody,
Speaker 1: but bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I
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