WEBVTT - TechStuff's Predictions for 2012 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:02.960 Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray. 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:08.920 It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:17.680 tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there, 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:20.240 and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:22.200 I'm an editor at how stuff works dot com and 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:25.239 sitting across from me, as always, or at least for 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:29.720 the last three years or so, senior writer Jonathan Strickland, 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:36.360 don't stop thinking about tomorrow. Really, yeah, I think you 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:39.400 need to go part your Fleetwood Mac next to the 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:44.000 at Uh. So, today we are going to do our 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:51.120 yearly exercise in futility and pain, which is our predictions 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.560 for what is going to happen in the year following. 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:58.320 And this being the year of eleven, we're looking ahead 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.920 to twelve and wondering how wrong we can be. Actually, 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:05.120 you know, our predictions for ended up being more right 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:07.480 than not. As I recall, you got to say a 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.480 Dreamcast score and I got a World Pool tub. Yes, 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:12.920 so it was much better than my score for the 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:15.440 year previous. Yeah, I I see that those are both 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:21.760 perfectly cromulent scores. So we've we've done really well. Uh, 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:23.600 whether or not we will do as well for this 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:26.520 coming year remains to be seen. Yeah, if you are 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:29.240 a long term fan, especially, you know that we do 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.480 this every year, or at least Truff tried to do 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:34.800 this for the last two years. Uh and uh. Also 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.880 you probably listened to our recap of TN, which ended 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:40.840 up being epic because all the stuff we predicted was 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:43.160 merely the tip of the iceberg. We had so much 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:46.320 incredible tech news that we never would have predicted. People 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:51.280 like Steve Jobs leaving us and the release of Google Plus, 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:55.560 earthquake in Japan, earthquake in Japan, um, all the all 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:57.760 these things are things that we never would have guests 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:02.520 would happen um when they did so. UM. Although my 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:04.800 first my first prediction does kind of fall into that 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:09.040 category stuff that we really you know, I mean, all 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:11.919 indicators point to this. It's just that we can't know 0:02:12.120 --> 0:02:16.160 right now exactly how big an impact it's going to make. 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:20.760 But mine, my first prediction, is all about economic uncertainty, 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:23.240 So it was uncertain whether you were going to do 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:25.960 that or not. Economic markets around the world are in 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:29.880 trouble right right now. You've got you've got the situation 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:33.080 in Greece, which pretty much when about as bad as 0:02:33.080 --> 0:02:37.400 it possibly can you have other situations in Italy there 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:40.239 there's a lot of concern that the European market is 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:45.200 in major Uh, there's a major risk that it could 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.200 it could falter and fall apart. Then there's the worry 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.560 about how that fallout would affect the rest of the world. 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:54.080 So perhaps the United States, which already seems to be 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:58.720 kind of in its own funk economically speaking, could follow suit. 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:00.760 There's a lot of worry abo what this could mean. 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:04.760 And frankly, no matter how it turns out, whether it 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:08.200 ends up just being a small blip or a massive catastrophe, 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:13.160 it's going to affect technology because you know, technology runs 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:17.200 on not just electricity but money. And as the this 0:03:17.320 --> 0:03:21.800 situation gets more and more complex and uncertain, I think 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:25.640 we're going to see that kind of effect the moves 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.040 that companies are going to make in the technology space. 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:32.400 And that might mean that, uh, we'll see we may 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:35.440 see some companies go under. You know, companies that are 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:40.080 kind of on the brink already might might disappear, become 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:45.040 acquired for a song. Because this of this environment, we 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:49.080 might see some scale back. We could see that scale 0:03:49.080 --> 0:03:52.040 back coming in the form of fewer products being released, 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:58.160 or perhaps even layoffs or restructuring. Uh. I really think 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:03.040 that because the there is such uncertainty that we're going 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.200 to see a lot of stories that in somewhere another 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.400 relate back to that. I know that's not very specific. 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.640 It's kind of a gimme prediction. It's not really a 0:04:11.640 --> 0:04:15.440 specific prediction. But that's one of the reasons why some 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.680 of the other predictions I've made or thought about are 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.279 really tenuous, because the economic situation is so serious and 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:26.920 so unpredictable that a lot of them could hinge on 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:30.120 it going one way versus another. So that's also me 0:04:30.200 --> 0:04:33.440 covering my butt for some of my other predictions I'll 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.360 be making. All right, Well, I didn't write these down 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:41.719 in an order necessarily that I um, I want to 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:45.119 release them, so I think I think I'm basing mine 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:48.600 on that. I think one of the first things that happened, 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:50.400 and it could very well happen by the end of 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:56.640 the year, is that Yahoo will get purchased by someone else. Um. There, 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.719 there's already talk right now. As of now, we're we 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.240 didn't mentioned more more recording. This recording us in at 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:03.919 the very end of the first week in December or 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:07.640 partial week actually the second second so and then this 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.560 has already been in the news, so the Chinese firm 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:14.080 Ali Baba might some of these predictions may end up 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:19.120 being predictions for the last month of December or eleven 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:22.560 rather than uh than for twelve, because we frankly don't 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:24.719 know how it's gonna turn out. I have a similar 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:27.880 prediction to that, saying that yeah, who will either get 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.640 sold or will break up into various pieces that get 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:33.880 gobbled up by different companies. There are a lot of 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:38.040 different properties in Yahoo that I think has still have value, 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.680 things like and also would make a big impact if 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:42.800 they were to go away, like yeah, who Mail? That 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:47.560 would be pretty catastrophic if that went away. So uh yeah, 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:50.880 I think that something's yeah whom. If y'all who gets 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:54.400 spot by Ali Baba, that could means some pretty big 0:05:54.480 --> 0:06:01.400 changes down the line. But yeah, this I think would 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.160 be the last year for Yahoo as the company that 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:08.000 we we know now. Maybe that whoever buys Yahoo, if 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:10.600 that does indeed happen, tries to keep it as its 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:13.159 own separate identity, but it's going to be a different animal, 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:17.479 right right. Another financial related one, I think the A 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:22.560 T and T and T Mobile USA merger is destined 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:26.320 to fail. Um. Again, this is a low hanging for eyah, 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:29.760 have some some gimmes. And I'm based on everything that's 0:06:29.800 --> 0:06:32.599 come out in the news in the last uh month 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:35.600 or so, really the last two weeks. Um, A lot 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:39.040 of people are concerned about the competition problems that will 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:41.720 cause here in the United States, and um, I just 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.760 don't think it's gonna go. Yeah. If it does happen, 0:06:44.920 --> 0:06:49.360 it's going to be such a dramatic, uh departure from 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.919 the original deal that it's going to look like something 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.640 different anyway. Like right now, a T and T is 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:58.640 is suggesting it would sell off a large amount of 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:02.080 T Mobiles assets to other companies in order to avoid 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:07.320 this UH antitrust issue. But whether or not that will 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:10.320 be enough for that deal to actually go through remains 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.320 to be seen. I'm I'm skeptical as well. Yeah. Now, UM, 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:15.360 I want to point out that one of the things 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:19.040 they're talking about is a joint venture between the two 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:22.480 if if the merger fails. Um, And I'm not counting 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:26.040 that as the merger going through. Um. So I mean 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.920 I'm being literal when I say that. Well, and you know, 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:32.080 this is another time to point out that, uh that 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.920 if it weren't for other political issues that are going 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:41.600 on right now, uh, this merger might not have been 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:44.239 such a big red flag. That was a red flag 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.360 for everyone in the tech industry who was worried that, uh, 0:07:47.440 --> 0:07:50.560 the number one or number two and number four carriers 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:55.600 joining together could end up really reducing innovation and causing 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.520 a reduction and competition and just be bad for consumers overall. 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.960 But now we also have political movements like the occupy movement, 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:08.720 which are bringing more attention to the way governments treat 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:12.720 companies versus the way they treat individual citizens. And I 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:16.560 think that kind of focus has also really hurt the 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:19.760 chances for that merger going through because now everyone's feeling 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:24.000 much more cautious about this, because the uproar is getting 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:28.520 louder and louder. Uh, let me do one, because I've 0:08:28.560 --> 0:08:33.640 just commented on two of yours. Um, how about the 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:39.680 RIM is going to undergo an executive shuffle. I think 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:43.240 I think at some point in we're going to see 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:47.880 a shake up in RIM's executive ranks, whether or not 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.640 this finally means we'll get down to one CEO for 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:52.559 rem as opposed to the co C e O S. 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:55.760 I don't know, but I think that shareholders are going 0:08:55.880 --> 0:08:58.360 to demand. You know, REM has had a couple of 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:02.160 was a tough year for REM, and I think if 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:06.960 if they don't do something dramatic at the organizational level, uh, 0:09:07.080 --> 0:09:10.280 shareholders are not going to continue supporting the company because 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:14.240 it's They're gonna be worried about the decisions being made there. 0:09:14.320 --> 0:09:17.480 So I expect that sometime in twelve we're going to 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:23.920 see a big shake up in the executive structure. All right, Um, 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.400 I made considerably more predictions this year than I did 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:28.720 last year. So do you do you do you want 0:09:28.720 --> 0:09:30.200 to go again? Or you want me to know you 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:34.480 go ahead? Okay, all right? Um? Other financial stuff this 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.080 is this is another gimme. Although we've been talking about 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.240 it for years. I think Facebook is finally ready to 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:42.280 have an initial public offering of stock and I think 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:44.520 it's really gonna happen this time. I also think that 0:09:44.559 --> 0:09:46.880 they're going to hit one billion users before the end 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:51.560 of which is the million now, so I think they'll 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:53.559 hit a billion users before the end of the year. 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:55.920 And also, yeah, I think they will go public, So 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.640 I think they're gonna get that was it ten billion 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:02.520 that they're hoping for with an initial public offering, their 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:05.440 value that a hundred billion. I think it's a ten billion. 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:07.080 I p o that that at least that was the 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.880 most recent rumor I read. Um, I think that's gonna 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:14.720 happen too. I agree. Um, Here's okay, I have a 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.240 crazy one. This is one that I think. I don't 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:19.400 I don't think this is really going to happen. I 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:21.400 really don't think it's gonna happen. But I wanted to 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:25.800 have a crazy prediction. So here's my crazy prediction. Google 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:34.160 purchases Twitter. Really Yeah, because Twitter, I mean really, Twitter 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.920 has been sticking around for ages and ages and ages, 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:42.640 and it uh somewhat defiantly because even now, even where 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:47.000 it has its limited advertisement model and and I just 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:49.520 can't imagine it's pulling in the revenue. It needs to 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:53.360 be a really viable business, right, I mean, it's mostly 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:57.439 still existing or it's it's been it's traditionally, it's it's 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:01.760 existed upon venture capitalists investing money into the company, and 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.240 I think, uh, you know, you can only keep that 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:06.800 up for so long before people just lose faith and 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.160 they won't pour money into it. No matter how important 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:12.240 that services. I think Google is the company that would, 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.440 just like Google did with YouTube, I think Google would 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:18.360 would take up the Twitter in that sense too, and 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.720 also say like, now we can treat you just like 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:25.160 we did Jaiku. So every and like and like in 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:28.280 like a year, it'll be gone. No. I think that 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:32.000 that's my crazy prediction. And again I don't really believe it, 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:35.400 but I wanted to predict it. Okay, all right, It's 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:37.840 funny because I keep looking for segways, and I keep 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:41.000 seeing multiple segways that I could take. I think I'll 0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:43.719 stick with the Google thing. I thought you're gonna make 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:48.560 a prediction about segways. No, not no actual segways, not 0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:54.200 the segways. Um. I although people have been predicting it's demise, 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.600 I don't think it's I think it's crazy to predict 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.840 that Google Plus will will just die. I think Google 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.959 Plus will slowly increase its user base over the course 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:08.400 of and uh some modest gains. Yeah, I think it. Well, 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:12.720 it's funny because once people got let in, uh and 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:17.600 they started not using it in droves. I think people 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.839 really haven't given it as much of a shakedown as 0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.520 they need to. And I think that, especially now that 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.880 Google is redesigning its user interface to promote Google Plus 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:28.720 more thoroughly and making it it's sort of a hub 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:33.280 for people's um attention. I think it will gradually. I 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.040 don't think it's gonna, you know, beat out Facebook next year, 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.120 but I do think that it's going to people are 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:39.840 gonna go, no, you know what, this is just not 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.200 so bad. I kind of like it. Unless they've been 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.520 adding functionality over the course of a few months, it's 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.400 been open to you. I think it'll grow. It looks 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.600 to me like Google Plus. His journey is very similar 0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:52.920 to what I saw on Twitter, and that there was 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.440 a quick rush to kind of check out what this 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:59.560 new toy was, and then a very sharp drop off 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.080 as people thought this isn't what I wanted it to 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.840 be and they leave, and then just slow gains after 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:06.800 that until more and more people are using it. I mean, 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:11.800 I still have several thousand people following me on Google Plus, 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.880 and that's more than I have on Twitter. Um, and it's, uh, 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:17.840 you know, it's it's still a very good tool to 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.040 engage people now. Granted, a lot of the people who 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:23.280 follow me end up looking like they are some sort 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:28.360 of bought or something, or it's just a an account 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:32.640 that's made in order to repost other people's stuff that 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.000 there's nothing original in there. You go and you look 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.599 at the uh the posts that the person made, and 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.800 they're all shares of some other person's posts, so they're 0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:43.920 not like anything original. A friend of mine complained about 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.560 that just yesterday, literally, and I think Google has been 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.720 removing some of those two because my my follower numbers 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.080 have been fluctuing. Either that or I'm driving people away, 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.520 which is also possible. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Yeah, 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.200 I'm not gonna negate that. Uh here's one of my 0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:02.120 others guesses just a while us. Uh So in twelve, 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.240 I think it has to do this for this, for 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.960 for it to stay together. But Netflix gets its act together, 0:14:08.240 --> 0:14:16.840 in which may possibly include letting read Hastings go. Might 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:20.800 include that because read Hastings I mean eleven was had 0:14:20.800 --> 0:14:25.320 a series of missteps for Netflix, and Netflix lost a 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:30.680 lot of the support and uh an admiration in the 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:34.040 tech community starting in the summer of eleven when it 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:38.120 announced that it was changing the pricing plans for streaming 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:42.760 versus DVD plus streaming versus DVD only. And then then, 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.600 of course they alienated even more people when there was 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:47.800 the announcement that Netflix was going to split into two 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.120 different companies where one would just do DVD distribution and 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:55.000 the other one would do digital uh. And then when 0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.920 they went back on that, they got even more derision, 0:14:58.040 --> 0:14:59.960 mostly because they're like, well, if you're gonna make a stand, 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.400 at least stick to it. You made a choice that 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:05.040 I hate, but then you went back to the choice 0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.560 that I hated slightly less, so I hate you more 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.880 now I like, wait that what? So? Yeah, I think 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.400 Netflix has been battered around a lot. In some cases 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:16.360 it was you know, you understandable at least on the 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:18.080 part of the people who are upset, you can understand 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:20.280 why they're upset. In other cases, I think it might 0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.160 be one of those like you just heap more and 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:25.640 more abuse on as it goes on. But I think 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.320 that the company has to do something in twelve to 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.920 recapture some of that good faith. That might mean Read 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:36.080 Hastings has to go. Although personally, you know, I have 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.320 no problem with the guy, so I don't. I don't know, 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:41.120 But I'm not a shareholder either. I'm not I'm not 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:44.680 a stakeholder in Netflix, so um, I'm not you know, 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.760 I don't have much to say about it on that sense, 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.680 so we'll see. Yeah. I think they actually made some 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.520 some decent decisions, but made them at a bad time. 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.760 They made drastic changes to the service when the public 0:15:56.840 --> 0:16:00.520 was not ready to And Netflix is doing some stuff 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:03.000 that's similar to things we've seen Apple do in the past, 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.000 in the sense that in order to reach the world 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.760 that Netflix wants us to be in, that being a 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:12.080 world where digital distribution is the norm. In order to 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:14.280 reach that world, you have to make some pretty tough 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:18.400 sacrifices and force people's hands to adopt to the new model, 0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:21.160 because if you don't know, everyone drags their feet and 0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.760 progress is very slow. Apple does the same thing when 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:29.000 Apple sees the opportunity to support one future technology, but 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:30.840 it means that you have to wait for an older 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:34.680 technology to die out. Apple just stop supporting the old technology, 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:36.720 and then they're like, well, here's the thing. We're forcing 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.080 you now to adopt this, and you might not like it, 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:40.960 you might kick and screen, but this, trust us, this 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:45.000 is better for you. And I think the problem is that, uh, 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:48.480 Netflix did this and probably didn't do it as smoothly 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:52.520 as Apple did or as convincingly and so uh they 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:56.720 got a lot of of resistance. Plus Apple is a 0:16:56.760 --> 0:17:00.800 smaller player in its own market for compute huoters anyway, 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:05.959 and uh, Netflix is the dominant um digital media digital 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.760 DVD really when you get down to it. Okay, next 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.320 one for you? Um, okay, I'll go with one of 0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:14.640 my my vague ones. Actually this is probably my most 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:19.560 vague one. Um, Facebook will make some huge acquisition that 0:17:19.600 --> 0:17:24.960 will all go huhh over. Um. I don't think it'll 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:27.840 be Yahoo, but it's gonna They're gonna acquire somebody and 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:36.280 you're going, but what what's that gonna do? Yeah, PepsiCo interesting? 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:40.720 Facebook the choice for the new generation. Can I get 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.200 a Facebook free? If you want a Facebook, you're gonna 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:47.280 have to pay for it? Facebook on my tab? Um, 0:17:47.440 --> 0:17:49.760 So anyway, Yeah, I think I think they're gonna make 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:52.199 any I mean, it's not like, uh, you know, if 0:17:52.200 --> 0:17:55.560 Google purchase Twitter, you go yeah, but I mean, you know, 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.480 social media and of course you know. But yeah, I 0:17:58.520 --> 0:18:01.399 think Facebook's and it may not be somebody that's bad 0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:05.719 for Facebook, but it's gonna be something that we're gonna go. 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:08.879 But why do you need that? Um, so you know 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.320 it's it's a loose prediction. But you know, I wouldn't 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:13.280 have said if I had said Google would launch a 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:17.000 social network in I mean sort of along those lines, 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.600 I mean, like Facebook and Spotify, that was kind of surprising. 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:22.040 I mean you would imagine, like I mean, it wouldn't 0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.360 have been hard to imagine Spotify incorporating the Facebook connect 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:29.600 as a way to connect to Spotify in the United States, 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.639 but to make it the way is kind of well, 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:36.359 that was unusual. Let's say, if if Facebook gobbled up Twitter, 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:38.520 that would be one thing. But I'm talking like Facebook 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:42.600 gobbles up Xerox? What why? Why on? Or how aboutould 0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.879 you do that Facebook gobbles up like Hulu or something 0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:49.200 something like that? Something unusual? It doesn't quite make sense, 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:52.639 all right? How about? Um, here's this one's kind of 0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:56.239 a gimme in a way. This is the year is 0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:59.960 the year at E three we will see the next 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.680 generation consoles from Microsoft and Sonya. So we'll see the 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:06.560 predicted that two years ago and got my rear end 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:09.200 handed to me on a platter. Yeah, two years running. Actually, 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:11.800 because I think you I think you've predicted in two 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:14.560 thousand nine and in two thousand ten. I think two 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.800 thousand twelve is the year. Well, we've heard some rumors already. 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.520 We've heard rumors that the successor to the three sixty 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:25.120 will have connect like functionality built directly into the console, 0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:27.199 and that it will be even more advanced to be 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:29.560 able to do things like to tell what mood you 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:32.840 are in, or even be able to read your lips. Yeah, 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:35.960 so there's that rumor. And I've also read rumors that 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:40.920 Sony's next UM console, the PlayStation four or whatever it 0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:43.840 might be called, will also contain some sort of connect 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:47.199 functionality built into it. So there's a lot of a 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.520 lot of money being put towards this whole connect style 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:55.000 of gaming and interaction UH and and hopefully that will 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:58.040 mean that we're going to see even more UH innovative 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:00.720 games and gameplay modes. I think a lot of the 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:03.399 games that we've been seeing are just scratching the surface 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:05.840 because people are still figuring out how to best use 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.960 this interface, how to best leverage it. And that's that's 0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.879 true whenever any new unit user interface comes out. You know, 0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:15.760 the first few things that come out are kind of interesting, 0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:18.920 but they're almost more like toys than anything really useful. 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:22.240 And then as the technology mature, as we start seeing 0:20:22.560 --> 0:20:27.680 assuming that people adopted, we start seeing more compelling products. 0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.679 So yeah, I think at E three we're going to 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:34.879 see at least a preview of the next Microsoft console 0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:37.600 and the next Sony console. It may may not come 0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:41.320 out in twelve, but we'll at least get our first preview. Okay, 0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:46.280 all right, Yeah, I have a several game uh predictions. Um, 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:49.159 I think the one that's closest to that, sticking with 0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:52.680 my segway idea, would be the we u Um, which 0:20:52.760 --> 0:20:55.639 is supposed to come out. Um, I think it's going 0:20:55.680 --> 0:20:58.160 to be a minor hit. I don't think. I think 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:00.440 I think it will sell. The three DS is actually 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:03.679 their sales have been increasing recently, so that's started to 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.160 climb out of a slump. So maybe Nintendo is like 0:21:06.320 --> 0:21:09.679 on the upswing of its dip. Yeah, because I'd say 0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:12.399 in twenty eleven it did kind of start to falter 0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:16.199 a little bit. Yeah, but but once Um Games for 0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:17.840 the three D s Storty coming out, like the Mario 0:21:17.920 --> 0:21:20.159 Games Story coming out for the three DS, the sales 0:21:20.200 --> 0:21:24.760 started to improve. So again Nintendo banking on that intellectual 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.280 property that has served them so well in the past. 0:21:27.680 --> 0:21:29.960 So yeah, maybe that We You would also have an 0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:33.840 initial success, especially if they're able to target not just 0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:38.760 the casual gamers, but the loyal like hard more hardcore gamers, 0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:40.520 not like hardcore in the sense of I need to 0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:43.080 you know, there has to be body limbs flying all 0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:45.239 over the screen for me to buy a game, but 0:21:45.320 --> 0:21:47.800 that you know, they're the dedicated gamers, the people who 0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:50.520 who will spend a lot of time and money that 0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:52.239 will go out, they'll buy the latest games as they 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:54.680 come out. Yeah, I think I think the The We 0:21:54.880 --> 0:21:57.399 You will be a hit among a lot of those people. 0:21:57.520 --> 0:22:00.480 But I don't think it's gonna catch on as quickly 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.240 as The We itself did when it was released. I 0:22:03.280 --> 0:22:05.760 don't think there's gonna be the same line. I think 0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:08.600 it's gonna be sort of a similar at adoption rate 0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:12.440 as the three D S where people go, yeah, okay, 0:22:12.560 --> 0:22:14.639 but it's we don't really have to have that, And 0:22:14.680 --> 0:22:17.640 it's rumored to be more expensive than We was when 0:22:17.680 --> 0:22:21.320 it launched. So that may also especially if if again, 0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:24.480 if that economic uncertainty also means that there's a downturn 0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:27.280 in general, then people may be more careful with their 0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:30.120 money and there may be less consumer spending. And that's 0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:31.880 why I'm saying a lot of the things I'm predicting 0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:37.080 hinge on the economy because in some cases, companies may say, 0:22:37.080 --> 0:22:39.600 you know what, We're gonna hold off introducing this product 0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:43.679 line until and see if maybe the economic outlook is 0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:48.439 better than that. That sometimes happens. Um. Okay, So sticking 0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:54.879 with Nintendo, here's another crazy prediction, this one. I I 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:57.560 go back and forth on this one. Okay, So Nintendo 0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:02.680 begins to develop a smartphone. Wow. So the idea that 0:23:02.800 --> 0:23:06.440 Nintendo decides to get into this, uh, take the next 0:23:06.480 --> 0:23:09.680 plunge and go into the smartphone realm. Either they partner 0:23:09.760 --> 0:23:13.439 with someone where a very specific partner is going to 0:23:13.480 --> 0:23:18.880 have access to some of Nintendo's intellectual properties, or they 0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:21.879 specifically go into the business of developing a smartphone that 0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:25.880 is branded with the Nintendo where you can buy Nintendo 0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:30.600 games through the phone's ecosystem, and that it is essentially 0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:34.080 the next step in their handheld gaming market, because that's 0:23:34.119 --> 0:23:37.080 where handheld gaming is right now, is in the smartphone market. 0:23:37.119 --> 0:23:39.919 And if you don't if you don't join that, then 0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:41.600 you might as well just get out of that industry 0:23:42.160 --> 0:23:46.000 the handheld gaming units are. It's harder and harder to 0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:49.680 sell one of those that doesn't have a phone in it. Okay, well, 0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:52.920 that's actually, uh in contrast with what you were saying 0:23:52.960 --> 0:23:55.360 a moment ago, and but in more in line with that, 0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:58.000 I had predicted that Nintendo is going to need to 0:23:58.040 --> 0:24:00.760 reduce the price that the three D s again. And 0:24:00.800 --> 0:24:03.639 it might. It might even. I mean, the sales that 0:24:03.720 --> 0:24:06.000 kind of bounced up might very well be like end 0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:09.199 of the year Christmas present kind of thing. Right, So 0:24:09.280 --> 0:24:11.359 those sales figures I mean to say, not sales like 0:24:11.400 --> 0:24:14.560 sales prices, but sales figures. Um, it may not be 0:24:14.880 --> 0:24:19.040 that the three DS gets widespread adoption like the other 0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:22.920 Nintendo handheld systems until we see at another price drop. 0:24:23.040 --> 0:24:26.120 It was dramatic to see a price drop happened within 0:24:26.160 --> 0:24:28.840 the first half year of the three ys being on 0:24:28.880 --> 0:24:31.640 the shelves. I have another one of those coming up 0:24:31.760 --> 0:24:33.960 that's very similar to that. Okay, well, I have one 0:24:34.000 --> 0:24:36.560 that this is a question really not so much a prediction, 0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:39.000 because there's actually a rumor out right now as we 0:24:39.040 --> 0:24:43.320 record this, which is again early December. There's a rumor 0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:46.040 and it's been going around for a while, but I've 0:24:46.080 --> 0:24:49.920 just seen it get traction recently that the iPad three 0:24:50.560 --> 0:24:52.919 or the successor to the iPad two, whatever it might 0:24:52.920 --> 0:24:55.720 be called, if it's had two plus or whatever two 0:24:55.960 --> 0:25:00.600 s that it will have a three D screen so 0:25:00.640 --> 0:25:02.440 that you'll be able to look at stuff in three D. 0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:06.400 That is the rumor. Here's my prediction. I don't think 0:25:06.400 --> 0:25:10.600 it's gonna happen. And here's here's my reasoning why I 0:25:10.600 --> 0:25:13.960 don't think it's gonna happen. Uh, it's it's actually got 0:25:14.000 --> 0:25:18.520 multiple levels to it. One is that the three D thing, 0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:23.320 it's an experience that doesn't it's not universal, okay, Like 0:25:23.400 --> 0:25:26.120 there are people who have vision issues or whatever who 0:25:26.240 --> 0:25:30.119 cannot see the three D images. Uh, it's very easy 0:25:30.160 --> 0:25:32.840 to get it wrong so that you might you know, 0:25:32.920 --> 0:25:35.000 you if you have to design a screen for someone 0:25:35.040 --> 0:25:36.520 and you have to make it adjustable, because if you 0:25:36.560 --> 0:25:38.520 don't make it adjustable, if you make it try and 0:25:38.560 --> 0:25:40.080 make it one size fits all, they're gonna be a 0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:42.080 lot of people where it's not going to be the 0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:45.800 best effects because our eyes are space differently, you know, 0:25:46.440 --> 0:25:49.040 Like my eyes are not as far apart as someone 0:25:49.080 --> 0:25:52.920 else's eyes, and someone else's eyes might be um closer 0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:55.679 together than my eyes are, and that affects how we 0:25:55.720 --> 0:25:58.280 would see a screen that has three D projection in 0:25:58.320 --> 0:26:01.679 it um. So because of that, Apple would have to 0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:05.679 design some sort of of ability to like the three ds, 0:26:05.760 --> 0:26:08.120 to adjust the level of three D, which you could 0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:10.879 get it just right without giving yourself a migraine trying 0:26:10.880 --> 0:26:13.840 to stare at this thing. But ultimately, the number one 0:26:13.920 --> 0:26:16.760 thing that I think suggests that a three D screen 0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:20.240 is not a good idea for an iPad is the interface. 0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:24.159 The interface is a touch screen interface. Why would you 0:26:24.200 --> 0:26:28.280 create a that's a two dimensional interface? Right, Yeah, that's true. 0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:30.480 Why would you have a two dimensional interface to interact 0:26:30.520 --> 0:26:34.159 with a three dimensional screen? Yeah, you would need like 0:26:34.200 --> 0:26:37.080 an iPad cube. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Even 0:26:37.119 --> 0:26:39.040 if you were to include the camera so that the 0:26:39.080 --> 0:26:41.800 camera sees you, you would have to figure out how 0:26:41.840 --> 0:26:45.520 to teach the processor to understand depth, and you would 0:26:45.520 --> 0:26:47.639 have to learn the depth. So like, if I have 0:26:47.720 --> 0:26:52.359 a three dimensional virtual environment, then that means I can 0:26:52.480 --> 0:26:56.480 I can stack data in lots of different ways. But 0:26:56.560 --> 0:26:58.840 if my interface is still a touch screen, I can 0:26:58.880 --> 0:27:01.719 effectively only put it horizontally in vertically. I can't go 0:27:01.880 --> 0:27:04.560 deep because there's no way to select that data. I 0:27:04.600 --> 0:27:07.120 always se like something that's in the background versus the foreground. 0:27:07.160 --> 0:27:10.280 In that case, UM, I think it's just too clunky. 0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:13.080 It doesn't make sense. The only way it would make 0:27:13.119 --> 0:27:16.080 sense is if you were just doing it for the 0:27:16.119 --> 0:27:19.240 effect of watching media. So if you wanted to watch 0:27:19.280 --> 0:27:22.160 a three D movie on your iPad, I think that 0:27:22.160 --> 0:27:26.240 that doesn't make sense financially to put that kind of 0:27:26.640 --> 0:27:31.720 uh investment in for something that's so limited and functionality. 0:27:32.359 --> 0:27:34.880 So it may very well turn out that I'm wrong, 0:27:34.920 --> 0:27:37.200 and maybe an Apple, of course is very good at 0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:40.240 at designing things that that work in ways I did 0:27:40.280 --> 0:27:43.800 not anticipate. I mean, the iPad is the perfect example 0:27:43.840 --> 0:27:47.199 of that. But based upon what I know about three 0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:50.600 D tech, and especially glasses free three D tech, and 0:27:50.760 --> 0:27:54.320 based upon the interface that the iPad uses, I just 0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:58.200 don't see it being a thing. So I'm gonna say 0:27:58.200 --> 0:28:00.560 that the iPad three or two S or whatever it's 0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:03.640 going to be called will not have a glasses free 0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:07.919 three D screen included. Yeah. Now, I have seen additional 0:28:08.000 --> 0:28:14.920 rumors that the screen will have a higher resolution display. 0:28:15.080 --> 0:28:17.679 It's sort of a gimme, I think, um people have 0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:20.159 been wanting that since the first iPad. As soon as 0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:22.520 I Pad iPhone four came out with the retina display, 0:28:22.560 --> 0:28:24.760 people were hoping that the iPad two would support the 0:28:24.760 --> 0:28:27.200 same thing. Now, of course it did not, but now 0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:29.840 there are hopes that the next generation iPad will have 0:28:29.880 --> 0:28:33.640 a retina display. Now, over the past couple of years, 0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:36.760 Jonavan has made a couple of predictions that you know 0:28:36.760 --> 0:28:38.560 where he was really going out on a limb and 0:28:38.880 --> 0:28:42.120 and uh turn out, you know, remember the iPad, the 0:28:42.200 --> 0:28:45.640 big failure. It was going to be uh so, so anyway, 0:28:46.040 --> 0:28:48.480 so anyway, I decided to go ahead and and and 0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:52.800 do one of my own where this this I could 0:28:52.920 --> 0:28:55.560 very easily get t boned on this one. There have 0:28:55.560 --> 0:28:59.600 been rumors that Apple is coming out with televisions, and 0:29:00.400 --> 0:29:02.440 I think I do think that's eventually going to happen. 0:29:02.720 --> 0:29:05.840 I think they're moving into compete with people like Sony 0:29:05.880 --> 0:29:08.680 and Samsung and LG. But I don't think you're gonna 0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:12.760 see the first ones come out in Okay, I disagree. Yeah, 0:29:13.120 --> 0:29:14.960 he's going to come out with its first Apple TV 0:29:15.040 --> 0:29:18.320 in twelve. Yeah, a real Apple TV, an Apple TV, 0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:21.320 which not exists. But it's not an actual television with 0:29:21.400 --> 0:29:24.800 Apple functionality built into it, not a set top box, 0:29:24.840 --> 0:29:27.720 It's built into the television unit itself. So I say 0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:31.320 that comes out. That was one of my predictions. Awesome. 0:29:31.440 --> 0:29:34.280 So uh, we very rarely do that, since we work 0:29:34.320 --> 0:29:38.640 independently on I don't necessarily feel strongly about it. Again, 0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:42.040 but I'm willing. I'm I'm willing to put my neck 0:29:42.040 --> 0:29:44.680 out on that one. So uh yeah, one of us 0:29:44.680 --> 0:29:46.160 will be right, one of us will be wrong, which 0:29:46.160 --> 0:29:48.080 means that one of us will get a blender and 0:29:48.080 --> 0:29:53.680 the other one will get a puppy. All right? Then? Yeah, um, 0:29:53.720 --> 0:29:58.000 so was that was that your prediction there? Or well, 0:29:58.000 --> 0:30:00.560 how many more do you have left? U don't I 0:30:00.640 --> 0:30:02.520 have a handful. I've got a few as well, so 0:30:02.560 --> 0:30:04.160 we can we can keep going back and forth. Sort 0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:07.360 of a related thing. Um, I I predict that new 0:30:07.440 --> 0:30:11.760 Google TV products will be coming out and no one 0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:16.600 will care. Yeah, I I have no disagreement there. I 0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:20.440 think Google TV. I think it launched too early. It 0:30:20.560 --> 0:30:23.160 launched too early with not enough features, and so it 0:30:23.240 --> 0:30:26.000 got a very kind of lackluster response and it's going 0:30:26.040 --> 0:30:30.840 to be really difficult to fight that off. Even if 0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:33.920 Google comes out with a truly compelling product to fight 0:30:33.960 --> 0:30:37.240 off the first impression people had that Google Television was 0:30:37.320 --> 0:30:41.360 kind of a well, this isn't what I was expecting. 0:30:41.360 --> 0:30:44.320 It doesn't feel like it's what I was promised. I 0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:47.000 think even if Google comes out with the perfect product now, 0:30:47.040 --> 0:30:49.520 it would be an uphill battle because people already have 0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:52.760 that impression that's just not what they want. And I 0:30:52.800 --> 0:30:55.760 think I think these products also are sort of like DVRs. 0:30:55.920 --> 0:30:59.280 I mean, people never really rushed out to buy themselves 0:30:59.320 --> 0:31:01.440 a TVO or other stuff, but I mean people have 0:31:01.480 --> 0:31:04.160 been adopting them, but it's sort of that under their radar. 0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:07.320 It's definitely like the perfect example of the long tail. 0:31:07.840 --> 0:31:09.760 You know, it's really a long tail product where you'd 0:31:09.800 --> 0:31:12.680 have a few early adopters and their word of mouth 0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:16.760 was enough to perpetuate sales, but the sales weren't huge 0:31:16.880 --> 0:31:19.520 all in a and they weren't front loaded. They were 0:31:19.520 --> 0:31:22.640 just kind of spread out. Um, all right, well here's 0:31:22.640 --> 0:31:26.640 one for me. At least one of the big daily 0:31:26.800 --> 0:31:30.600 deal sites will go under at least one. So these 0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:34.440 are things like living social group on scout Bob. Google 0:31:34.480 --> 0:31:38.400 has its own version Google deals, you know, so we're 0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:42.240 gonna I think at least one of those is gonna 0:31:42.440 --> 0:31:45.840 collapse because there's so the markets flooded, there's so many 0:31:45.920 --> 0:31:49.000 of them that I don't think it can sustain all 0:31:49.040 --> 0:31:56.040 of them together. Okay, UM, I have one. Apple will 0:31:56.160 --> 0:32:01.080 not announce NFC for an iPhone. We won't have near 0:32:01.120 --> 0:32:04.280 field communications. I think I think it's probable that Google 0:32:04.320 --> 0:32:07.240 wallet will slowly grow sort of the same thing. Is 0:32:07.280 --> 0:32:08.960 that what we were just talking about. I just don't 0:32:09.000 --> 0:32:12.200 think people care right now here in the United States 0:32:12.240 --> 0:32:15.040 about near field communication, and I don't think the iPhone. 0:32:15.120 --> 0:32:16.600 I don't think Apple is going to rush out to 0:32:16.800 --> 0:32:20.080 UH to meet Google on that field of battle. Yet. 0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:22.440 I think part of it is that more and more 0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:26.440 UH emphasis in the tech world anyway, not necessarily on 0:32:26.480 --> 0:32:29.160 the individual consumer, but in the tech world is on 0:32:30.200 --> 0:32:34.360 UH distribution centers like Amazon. So it's going further away 0:32:34.400 --> 0:32:37.360 from the point of sale retail shops in the first place. 0:32:37.400 --> 0:32:41.320 So making that point of sale thing easier doesn't really 0:32:42.080 --> 0:32:44.160 a lot of people that there's no validity to that 0:32:44.200 --> 0:32:46.600 because that's not their shopping experience, or at least in 0:32:46.640 --> 0:32:49.360 the tech world, that's how it seems now like again 0:32:49.600 --> 0:32:52.240 from the average consumer who is going out and shopping 0:32:52.240 --> 0:32:54.560 for Christmas presents, Maybe that's not the case. Maybe there 0:32:54.560 --> 0:32:56.600 are the person who hits those brick and border stores 0:32:56.600 --> 0:32:58.560 over and over again, in which case they might really 0:32:58.600 --> 0:33:04.640 welcome near field community patients solutions. How about Microsoft Windows 0:33:04.680 --> 0:33:09.720 tablets will debut to modest results, like they're not gonna 0:33:09.880 --> 0:33:11.560 They're not gonna take a big chunk out of the 0:33:11.600 --> 0:33:17.520 tablet market. I think I think I the the iPad 0:33:17.560 --> 0:33:20.560 will still be firmly in the lead. I think Android 0:33:20.600 --> 0:33:25.120 will be in second and Windows might take third. They 0:33:25.160 --> 0:33:27.600 might actually overtake all those touch pads that were sold 0:33:29.520 --> 0:33:35.280 in late yea. Um. Actually I had written this down 0:33:35.360 --> 0:33:37.680 on the Predictions episode and I didn't move it over 0:33:37.720 --> 0:33:41.680 to my predictions list for I think HP is going 0:33:41.840 --> 0:33:44.520 to do something useful with web os. I think it 0:33:44.640 --> 0:33:47.080 may actually even hang onto it. So you think they're 0:33:47.120 --> 0:33:52.360 reversing what uh Leo said back in uh the former 0:33:52.440 --> 0:33:55.840 CEO of HP said back in the summer of eleven, 0:33:55.920 --> 0:33:58.920 where HP was supposedly going to get out of the 0:33:58.920 --> 0:34:04.280 consumer computer business as well as halt developing webOS. And 0:34:04.360 --> 0:34:09.680 now both of those statements seem to be Um, well, 0:34:09.680 --> 0:34:11.560 it seemed to be in question. Yeah, now that the 0:34:11.560 --> 0:34:16.040 announcement may come by the end of but I think 0:34:16.080 --> 0:34:17.759 I think they're going to real Well, a lot of 0:34:17.760 --> 0:34:21.600 people said what are you doing? Why are you doing that? Um? 0:34:21.640 --> 0:34:24.359 And I do think although the tablets weren't selling before 0:34:24.360 --> 0:34:27.759 the discounts, um, I think the price had more to 0:34:27.800 --> 0:34:31.120 do that with that than the webOS part. Okay, So 0:34:31.280 --> 0:34:35.600 I think is going to be the swan song for 0:34:35.719 --> 0:34:39.880 the compact disc mhm. I think that we're going to 0:34:39.960 --> 0:34:45.280 see lots of companies cut way back on manufacturing discs 0:34:45.320 --> 0:34:49.239 and start to rely more on digital distribution as their 0:34:49.320 --> 0:34:53.400 primary means of getting music out to customers for DVDs 0:34:53.520 --> 0:34:56.680 or just CDs. CDs. I think DVD still have a 0:34:56.719 --> 0:35:00.640 little way to go, mostly because, um, it's a lot 0:35:00.760 --> 0:35:03.160 It's still easier for someone to download a CD than 0:35:03.200 --> 0:35:06.000 it is for them to You can stream movies pretty easily. 0:35:06.640 --> 0:35:10.040 Downloading a film the requires that you have more space 0:35:10.200 --> 0:35:12.640 and a faster connection to do it in a way 0:35:12.680 --> 0:35:15.040 that has a good experience for the consumers. So I 0:35:15.040 --> 0:35:17.440 think I think we're not quite there yet. I mean, 0:35:17.520 --> 0:35:20.319 most most of our listeners are probably there, like most 0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:22.479 of our listeners are probably in the group of people 0:35:22.520 --> 0:35:26.760 who have the kind of connections and and equipment where 0:35:27.080 --> 0:35:29.480 downloading a film wouldn't be a huge deal. But for 0:35:29.880 --> 0:35:33.640 the vast majority of people out there, the big audience 0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:35.200 that you have to aim for because that's where your 0:35:35.200 --> 0:35:37.200 money is going to be. I don't think they're there yet, 0:35:37.239 --> 0:35:39.319 but they are there as far as CD sales go, 0:35:39.480 --> 0:35:43.640 So I think CDs aren't going to disappear, but I 0:35:43.640 --> 0:35:47.120 think they're going to be more rare, and that you'll 0:35:47.280 --> 0:35:50.120 more likely have to buy things through some sort of 0:35:50.160 --> 0:35:54.680 digital distribution, either iTunes or Amazon or directly from whatever 0:35:54.719 --> 0:35:57.800 the music label is, or even the band in some cases, 0:35:57.840 --> 0:36:00.279 because we may we may. This may be the getting 0:36:00.280 --> 0:36:04.319 of the end for the major labels as we recognize 0:36:04.360 --> 0:36:07.840 them now. They'll still, I think, be around. I just 0:36:07.880 --> 0:36:12.640 don't think that they'll be as big a power player 0:36:12.800 --> 0:36:18.640 as they were in the decades past. Um. Since this 0:36:18.719 --> 0:36:21.040 is I don't really have a good segue for this one, 0:36:21.080 --> 0:36:25.080 so I'll throw out my left field thing. I think 0:36:25.200 --> 0:36:30.120 that Canonical, the manufacturers of uh several different flavors of 0:36:30.239 --> 0:36:34.640 lenox um, will ditch Unity as the main interface for 0:36:34.680 --> 0:36:38.760 a Buntu because it has gone over like the biggest 0:36:38.800 --> 0:36:42.279 lead balloon of all lead balloons. Yeah, uh yeah, there's 0:36:42.280 --> 0:36:44.520 not a lot of love for it. I think they 0:36:44.560 --> 0:36:47.080 may try to refurbish it, but I think they may 0:36:47.880 --> 0:36:52.560 go back to gnome as the main gnome and clature 0:36:52.640 --> 0:36:55.600 for for it. Um. Of course, it's easy. It's easy 0:36:55.680 --> 0:36:58.239 enough to to choose it. And that's something that I 0:36:58.280 --> 0:37:02.480 read recently in a in a critique of the new interface. Um. 0:37:02.520 --> 0:37:05.720 You know, it's it's not like anybody has to stick 0:37:05.760 --> 0:37:08.520 with Unity. You can go with any number of other 0:37:08.840 --> 0:37:12.680 interfaces pretty easily. Um. But yeah, there's there's been so 0:37:12.800 --> 0:37:15.799 much uh complaint about it. I think that they're gonna 0:37:15.880 --> 0:37:18.680 go with something else or or come, you know, maybe 0:37:18.680 --> 0:37:22.160 completely overhaul. But I'm gonna say for the official prediction 0:37:22.160 --> 0:37:25.440 that they're gonna ditch it. Um. So what's next? I 0:37:25.520 --> 0:37:28.960 only have one left out of my official predictions unless 0:37:29.000 --> 0:37:32.799 I think of some while we're talking, um, and this one. Uh, 0:37:33.040 --> 0:37:35.239 it's it's it's such a lame one. I don't know 0:37:35.280 --> 0:37:37.719 why it chose this as the last one. Uh. But 0:37:38.160 --> 0:37:42.400 you know, we've got another election year coming up. I 0:37:42.440 --> 0:37:45.239 think that tech is going to play the biggest role 0:37:45.400 --> 0:37:49.600 ever in election history this year I want to give 0:37:49.880 --> 0:37:51.799 I know, that's what I said. It was lame. I 0:37:51.880 --> 0:37:53.439 was like, you know, the more I wrote this down, 0:37:53.440 --> 0:37:57.080 the more I'm like, and water is wet, so it 0:37:57.120 --> 0:37:59.440 already has. So you know what, I'm not gonna I'm 0:37:59.480 --> 0:38:01.520 not gonna really even next year, I'm not going to 0:38:01.719 --> 0:38:03.920 count that. I mean, normally I would win at least 0:38:03.920 --> 0:38:05.920 a donkey or an elephant out of that one. But 0:38:06.120 --> 0:38:08.719 I think, uh, I think that one is such a 0:38:08.760 --> 0:38:12.520 GIMMI that you know, people who people who would be 0:38:12.640 --> 0:38:15.399 visiting our planet for the first time would be able 0:38:15.440 --> 0:38:18.240 to tell you that within five minutes of note looking around. 0:38:18.320 --> 0:38:22.759 So yeah, okay, I have well I have several, but 0:38:22.880 --> 0:38:25.759 a couple of them I'm just gonna ditch. Um. I 0:38:25.840 --> 0:38:28.560 have four left. I think that um that I want 0:38:28.560 --> 0:38:31.520 to keep going with. One is that now, keeping in 0:38:31.560 --> 0:38:33.400 mind this, it's been out for a short time. So 0:38:33.440 --> 0:38:36.120 even though it released in I'm gonna say that in 0:38:36.800 --> 0:38:39.680 the kindle fire will be a hit. I think it's 0:38:39.719 --> 0:38:42.239 I think it's gonna do really well over the next year. 0:38:42.600 --> 0:38:45.840 So you're you're calling it like a true success, Like 0:38:45.880 --> 0:38:49.640 a true success, I think it might be the first. Um, 0:38:50.040 --> 0:38:51.680 I agree with you. I think it might be the 0:38:51.760 --> 0:38:56.640 first non iPad to truly succeed in the market. I mean, 0:38:56.640 --> 0:38:59.120 we've got lots of other non iPad tablets out there, 0:38:59.120 --> 0:39:03.280 but I don't think any of them have been hailed 0:39:03.320 --> 0:39:11.520 as a true success. And HPS touchpad did. Okay, I 0:39:11.560 --> 0:39:13.879 don't count. You don't count that that's a fluke because 0:39:13.920 --> 0:39:17.200 of the pricing. That doesn't mean people would have bought 0:39:17.200 --> 0:39:19.480 anything and a hundred dollars if it were in a 0:39:19.480 --> 0:39:21.239 tablet for probably like you know, if it was a 0:39:21.280 --> 0:39:24.560 Window seven tablet for a hundred bucks, that probably would 0:39:24.560 --> 0:39:28.360 have gone out and rushed out and bought those. Um. 0:39:28.719 --> 0:39:31.200 But yeah, I think that the the the Kindle Fire 0:39:31.280 --> 0:39:35.320 has the potential to be the the number two tablet. 0:39:35.920 --> 0:39:39.360 Like if you're talking about specific models, uh, because again, 0:39:39.400 --> 0:39:43.359 the Android tablet space is so diverse that it's hard 0:39:43.400 --> 0:39:46.720 for any one kind of tablet to get true success 0:39:46.719 --> 0:39:48.560 in that field because there's just so many different ones, 0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:51.759 and you know, it requires that the consumer be informed 0:39:51.800 --> 0:39:54.399 about his or her choice. You know, when you go 0:39:55.200 --> 0:39:57.400 if you just know what a tablet is and you 0:39:57.400 --> 0:39:59.600 know what Android is, but you don't know anything Beyond that, 0:39:59.680 --> 0:40:02.160 going into a store and shopping for Android tablets is 0:40:02.320 --> 0:40:05.600 maddening because there's so many different kinds and you don't 0:40:05.600 --> 0:40:10.200 necessarily know which ones are really gonna be good versus um, 0:40:10.280 --> 0:40:12.640 some that are just going to be slow and unresponsive 0:40:12.680 --> 0:40:16.680 and and maybe running Android one point six, you know, 0:40:17.719 --> 0:40:21.840 so um And related to that, I say that, and 0:40:21.880 --> 0:40:24.960 there's been speculation that the Kindle fire will cause Apple 0:40:25.239 --> 0:40:28.560 to lower prices at the iPad. I say, no, I 0:40:28.560 --> 0:40:30.040 don't think. I don't think they're gonna do it now. 0:40:30.120 --> 0:40:36.080 Apple is has traditionally been sort of that premium kind 0:40:36.120 --> 0:40:40.560 of uh product, especially since Steve Jobs came back. Yeah, 0:40:40.680 --> 0:40:43.080 I mean there's aimed for that niche. Yeah, that was 0:40:43.200 --> 0:40:46.200 that was what. That's kind of their corporate identity. They're 0:40:46.200 --> 0:40:50.160 not known for marking down prices in the face of competition. 0:40:50.200 --> 0:40:53.879 They're they're known for just pouring even more effort into 0:40:53.920 --> 0:40:57.840 innovation and marketing and convincing people that whatever it is 0:40:57.880 --> 0:40:59.799 they're coming out with is what you have to have. 0:41:00.480 --> 0:41:03.439 I can't you know, I've heard people talk about how 0:41:04.200 --> 0:41:07.959 the market forces like netbooks were supposed to bring down 0:41:08.239 --> 0:41:10.759 Mac prices. You know, that was the big thing they 0:41:10.760 --> 0:41:13.399 didn't really do that either. Now, granted, you could also 0:41:13.480 --> 0:41:16.480 say that, well, Apple keeps coming out with more advanced 0:41:16.520 --> 0:41:19.200 hardware and then marketing it for the same price as 0:41:19.239 --> 0:41:23.239 the previous generation hardware, so in a way, prices are 0:41:23.400 --> 0:41:31.799 kind of falling sort of, but not in the traditional sense. Yeah. Yeah, um, 0:41:31.880 --> 0:41:35.240 And then let's see I said that Windows will release 0:41:35.400 --> 0:41:41.400 two sort of lackluster adoption. Um, and that's twofold. I 0:41:41.400 --> 0:41:44.680 think it suffers from the same problem that Lion does 0:41:44.800 --> 0:41:47.759 for for the macOS, and that it's got a very 0:41:47.760 --> 0:41:50.920 different interface. And yes, before you write me, I know 0:41:51.040 --> 0:41:54.759 you can change its metro. Yeah, it's going to the 0:41:54.800 --> 0:41:57.520 metro interface. For those of you who don't know, is 0:41:57.600 --> 0:42:01.239 the interface for the Windows eight porta bowl devices and 0:42:01.280 --> 0:42:04.040 Windows seven portable stuff that's out there now you see 0:42:04.040 --> 0:42:06.600 on there if you've seen commercials with a little colorful 0:42:06.719 --> 0:42:09.960 boxes on the phones, that's what the Windows eight you 0:42:10.160 --> 0:42:13.120 user interface is supposed to look like for computers, Yeah, 0:42:13.160 --> 0:42:15.400 which which would work be great if you have a 0:42:15.440 --> 0:42:18.399 touch screen monitor, but if you don't have a touch 0:42:18.440 --> 0:42:21.799 screen monitor. There's some people who suggest that that particular 0:42:22.400 --> 0:42:27.240 way of organizing data is not really that intuitive because 0:42:27.320 --> 0:42:31.680 you can't navigate through it as as easily. That's one 0:42:31.719 --> 0:42:33.880 of the big things that we've talked about with that. 0:42:33.960 --> 0:42:37.279 We're plan on doing a user interface podcast at some point. 0:42:37.320 --> 0:42:39.480 We're talk about the design of a user interface and 0:42:39.560 --> 0:42:42.480 what goes into that, because there's so much more beyond 0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:47.040 just technical uh sex. But you know, we've seen like 0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:50.680 kids pick up an iPad and that just they learn 0:42:50.760 --> 0:42:55.359 how to navigate that iPad really quickly. You know. It's 0:42:55.440 --> 0:42:57.640 it's one of those things that's just very intuitive. Yeah, 0:42:57.960 --> 0:43:01.160 So kids intuitively can figure out how to navigate these things. 0:43:01.480 --> 0:43:06.280 So there is a, uh, there is a an urge 0:43:06.320 --> 0:43:09.080 to move toward that because everyone's like, well, this, this 0:43:09.160 --> 0:43:12.840 is there's something here. It's just it's it's almost magical, 0:43:13.239 --> 0:43:16.480 like to to use an Apple type phrase. But when 0:43:16.480 --> 0:43:19.080 you get it to a desktop modality where there's no 0:43:19.760 --> 0:43:22.160 there's not necessarily a touch screen part of the interface, 0:43:22.560 --> 0:43:25.160 it's not nearly as intuitive because you're navigating you're not 0:43:25.280 --> 0:43:27.600 navigating it the same way you would if you were, 0:43:28.040 --> 0:43:31.120 say a touch screen tablet. Yeah, and and and here's 0:43:31.120 --> 0:43:33.520 the thing. I mean, yes, you can you can operate 0:43:33.560 --> 0:43:36.320 Windows eight in that mode or in a more traditional 0:43:36.360 --> 0:43:40.560 mode but they've been marketing it at using the the 0:43:40.600 --> 0:43:43.160 Metro stuff on that initial thing. Look what you can 0:43:43.200 --> 0:43:46.880 do here. Um. I think if they continue marketing Metro 0:43:47.040 --> 0:43:49.040 as the primary interface, people are going to be a 0:43:49.080 --> 0:43:51.880 little put off by that and they suffer from another problem. 0:43:52.080 --> 0:43:56.440 Windows seven it's really good, um, and people have been 0:43:56.480 --> 0:43:59.719 adopting it now. It's it's you know, surpassed Vista in 0:43:59.719 --> 0:44:02.879 a option at this point. UM. And I think now 0:44:02.920 --> 0:44:04.800 that XP is going out, I think people are just 0:44:04.800 --> 0:44:07.680 gonna go with Windows seven unless you know, Microsoft completely 0:44:07.719 --> 0:44:09.920 makes it unavailable. This is kind of crazy because when 0:44:10.000 --> 0:44:13.719 you think about think about how long XP stuck around, Yeah, 0:44:13.760 --> 0:44:17.760 ten years, ten years of XP and then because it works, 0:44:17.920 --> 0:44:20.360 and then what happened was people did not like Vista, 0:44:20.880 --> 0:44:23.560 or enough people did not like Vista for it to 0:44:23.600 --> 0:44:27.160 be a problem, and uh, and then Windows seven came 0:44:27.200 --> 0:44:29.919 around it seemed to be a big improvement. It does 0:44:30.000 --> 0:44:32.839 seem weird to go from Windows seven to Windows eight 0:44:32.960 --> 0:44:36.680 so relatively quickly when you look at how long there 0:44:36.840 --> 0:44:42.200 was a a pause from Windows XP to Windows Vista. 0:44:42.360 --> 0:44:44.680 And yes there were other versions of Windows that came 0:44:44.680 --> 0:44:47.680 out between those, but we're talking about mass adoption here. Yeah, 0:44:48.200 --> 0:44:50.920 so I think and mass adoption and and actual like 0:44:51.000 --> 0:44:54.040 personal computers as opposed to web servers and things like that. 0:44:54.200 --> 0:44:55.680 So I just don't think it's going to take off. 0:44:57.000 --> 0:44:58.759 And my my last one, I'm gonna go with my 0:44:58.800 --> 0:45:02.640 gimme for the last one. Blizzard will release Diablo three 0:45:02.760 --> 0:45:09.120 and it will become a massive hit. Wow, I gotta 0:45:09.120 --> 0:45:11.279 get it. I gotta get a demon or something out 0:45:11.320 --> 0:45:16.120 of that. I would predict that there will be uh 0:45:17.320 --> 0:45:22.680 a dramatic increase in people complaining about right index finger pain. 0:45:23.320 --> 0:45:28.000 That's exactly possible directly as a result of blizzards of 0:45:28.040 --> 0:45:32.719 blizzards Diablo three releasing. It's going to be a hit. Yeah. 0:45:32.719 --> 0:45:34.959 I didn't make any other predictions about any other game 0:45:35.000 --> 0:45:37.000 titles that I think might come out and next year 0:45:37.040 --> 0:45:40.040 because that that's what Grand Theft All five comes out. 0:45:41.160 --> 0:45:43.120 That'll be excited to see. I think that will be 0:45:43.160 --> 0:45:46.520 a big success. That's also another gimming people have been 0:45:46.520 --> 0:45:49.320 eager for that. But U okay, so here's my final 0:45:49.400 --> 0:45:51.920 final prediction. So you came up with it. Last prediction 0:45:52.239 --> 0:45:55.680 has nothing to do with tech. I'm done. I predict 0:45:55.719 --> 0:45:58.480 this time next year we will be making a prediction 0:45:58.480 --> 0:46:03.439 show and we will ignore the fact that the Mayan 0:46:03.560 --> 0:46:06.520 calendar is coming at an end, and that we will 0:46:06.600 --> 0:46:10.399 just assume that the world will continue going on and 0:46:10.440 --> 0:46:14.839 that we will have to predict stuff to happen. All right, 0:46:16.000 --> 0:46:19.759 So um yeah for those of you who were you know, 0:46:19.960 --> 0:46:22.640 playing on just living it up in twelve because it 0:46:22.680 --> 0:46:26.520 was gonna be the final year. Ever, I don't think so. 0:46:26.520 --> 0:46:30.479 So alright, alright, well let's wrap this up that those 0:46:30.520 --> 0:46:34.400 are our predictions for twenty twelve in the world of technology. 0:46:34.760 --> 0:46:36.480 If you guys have any of your own predictions you 0:46:36.520 --> 0:46:38.840 would like to share, or you have any other questions 0:46:38.920 --> 0:46:40.799 or suggestions for topics you would like us to cover 0:46:40.840 --> 0:46:43.560 in future episodes, let us know. So there's an email 0:46:43.719 --> 0:46:46.680 that addresses tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com, 0:46:46.840 --> 0:46:49.720 or drop us a line on Facebook or Twitter. Are handled. 0:46:49.760 --> 0:46:52.000 There is tech stuff hs W and Chris and I 0:46:52.000 --> 0:46:59.880 will talk to you again in the future. Be shorted. 0:47:00.040 --> 0:47:02.720 Check out our new video podcast, Stuff from the Future. 0:47:03.040 --> 0:47:05.359 Join How Stuff Work staff as we explore the most 0:47:05.360 --> 0:47:10.240 promising and perplexing possibilities of tomorrow. The House Stuff Works 0:47:10.239 --> 0:47:18.279 iPhone app has arrived. Download it today on iTunes. Brought 0:47:18.320 --> 0:47:21.520 to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, 0:47:21.680 --> 0:47:22.080 Are you