Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray.
Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With
Speaker 1: tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there,
Speaker 1: and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette.
Speaker 1: I'm an editor at how stuff works dot com and
Speaker 1: sitting across from me, as always, or at least for
Speaker 1: the last three years or so, senior writer Jonathan Strickland,
Speaker 1: don't stop thinking about tomorrow. Really, yeah, I think you
Speaker 1: need to go part your Fleetwood Mac next to the
Speaker 1: at Uh. So, today we are going to do our
Speaker 1: yearly exercise in futility and pain, which is our predictions
Speaker 1: for what is going to happen in the year following.
Speaker 1: And this being the year of eleven, we're looking ahead
Speaker 1: to twelve and wondering how wrong we can be. Actually,
Speaker 1: you know, our predictions for ended up being more right
Speaker 1: than not. As I recall, you got to say a
Speaker 1: Dreamcast score and I got a World Pool tub. Yes,
Speaker 1: so it was much better than my score for the
Speaker 1: year previous. Yeah, I I see that those are both
Speaker 1: perfectly cromulent scores. So we've we've done really well. Uh,
Speaker 1: whether or not we will do as well for this
Speaker 1: coming year remains to be seen. Yeah, if you are
Speaker 1: a long term fan, especially, you know that we do
Speaker 1: this every year, or at least Truff tried to do
Speaker 1: this for the last two years. Uh and uh. Also
Speaker 1: you probably listened to our recap of TN, which ended
Speaker 1: up being epic because all the stuff we predicted was
Speaker 1: merely the tip of the iceberg. We had so much
Speaker 1: incredible tech news that we never would have predicted. People
Speaker 1: like Steve Jobs leaving us and the release of Google Plus,
Speaker 1: earthquake in Japan, earthquake in Japan, um, all the all
Speaker 1: these things are things that we never would have guests
Speaker 1: would happen um when they did so. UM. Although my
Speaker 1: first my first prediction does kind of fall into that
Speaker 1: category stuff that we really you know, I mean, all
Speaker 1: indicators point to this. It's just that we can't know
Speaker 1: right now exactly how big an impact it's going to make.
Speaker 1: But mine, my first prediction, is all about economic uncertainty,
Speaker 1: So it was uncertain whether you were going to do
Speaker 1: that or not. Economic markets around the world are in
Speaker 1: trouble right right now. You've got you've got the situation
Speaker 1: in Greece, which pretty much when about as bad as
Speaker 1: it possibly can you have other situations in Italy there
Speaker 1: there's a lot of concern that the European market is
Speaker 1: in major Uh, there's a major risk that it could
Speaker 1: it could falter and fall apart. Then there's the worry
Speaker 1: about how that fallout would affect the rest of the world.
Speaker 1: So perhaps the United States, which already seems to be
Speaker 1: kind of in its own funk economically speaking, could follow suit.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of worry abo what this could mean.
Speaker 1: And frankly, no matter how it turns out, whether it
Speaker 1: ends up just being a small blip or a massive catastrophe,
Speaker 1: it's going to affect technology because you know, technology runs
Speaker 1: on not just electricity but money. And as the this
Speaker 1: situation gets more and more complex and uncertain, I think
Speaker 1: we're going to see that kind of effect the moves
Speaker 1: that companies are going to make in the technology space.
Speaker 1: And that might mean that, uh, we'll see we may
Speaker 1: see some companies go under. You know, companies that are
Speaker 1: kind of on the brink already might might disappear, become
Speaker 1: acquired for a song. Because this of this environment, we
Speaker 1: might see some scale back. We could see that scale
Speaker 1: back coming in the form of fewer products being released,
Speaker 1: or perhaps even layoffs or restructuring. Uh. I really think
Speaker 1: that because the there is such uncertainty that we're going
Speaker 1: to see a lot of stories that in somewhere another
Speaker 1: relate back to that. I know that's not very specific.
Speaker 1: It's kind of a gimme prediction. It's not really a
Speaker 1: specific prediction. But that's one of the reasons why some
Speaker 1: of the other predictions I've made or thought about are
Speaker 1: really tenuous, because the economic situation is so serious and
Speaker 1: so unpredictable that a lot of them could hinge on
Speaker 1: it going one way versus another. So that's also me
Speaker 1: covering my butt for some of my other predictions I'll
Speaker 1: be making. All right, Well, I didn't write these down
Speaker 1: in an order necessarily that I um, I want to
Speaker 1: release them, so I think I think I'm basing mine
Speaker 1: on that. I think one of the first things that happened,
Speaker 1: and it could very well happen by the end of
Speaker 1: the year, is that Yahoo will get purchased by someone else. Um. There,
Speaker 1: there's already talk right now. As of now, we're we
Speaker 1: didn't mentioned more more recording. This recording us in at
Speaker 1: the very end of the first week in December or
Speaker 1: partial week actually the second second so and then this
Speaker 1: has already been in the news, so the Chinese firm
Speaker 1: Ali Baba might some of these predictions may end up
Speaker 1: being predictions for the last month of December or eleven
Speaker 1: rather than uh than for twelve, because we frankly don't
Speaker 1: know how it's gonna turn out. I have a similar
Speaker 1: prediction to that, saying that yeah, who will either get
Speaker 1: sold or will break up into various pieces that get
Speaker 1: gobbled up by different companies. There are a lot of
Speaker 1: different properties in Yahoo that I think has still have value,
Speaker 1: things like and also would make a big impact if
Speaker 1: they were to go away, like yeah, who Mail? That
Speaker 1: would be pretty catastrophic if that went away. So uh yeah,
Speaker 1: I think that something's yeah whom. If y'all who gets
Speaker 1: spot by Ali Baba, that could means some pretty big
Speaker 1: changes down the line. But yeah, this I think would
Speaker 1: be the last year for Yahoo as the company that
Speaker 1: we we know now. Maybe that whoever buys Yahoo, if
Speaker 1: that does indeed happen, tries to keep it as its
Speaker 1: own separate identity, but it's going to be a different animal,
Speaker 1: right right. Another financial related one, I think the A
Speaker 1: T and T and T Mobile USA merger is destined
Speaker 1: to fail. Um. Again, this is a low hanging for eyah,
Speaker 1: have some some gimmes. And I'm based on everything that's
Speaker 1: come out in the news in the last uh month
Speaker 1: or so, really the last two weeks. Um, A lot
Speaker 1: of people are concerned about the competition problems that will
Speaker 1: cause here in the United States, and um, I just
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna go. Yeah. If it does happen,
Speaker 1: it's going to be such a dramatic, uh departure from
Speaker 1: the original deal that it's going to look like something
Speaker 1: different anyway. Like right now, a T and T is
Speaker 1: is suggesting it would sell off a large amount of
Speaker 1: T Mobiles assets to other companies in order to avoid
Speaker 1: this UH antitrust issue. But whether or not that will
Speaker 1: be enough for that deal to actually go through remains
Speaker 1: to be seen. I'm I'm skeptical as well. Yeah. Now, UM,
Speaker 1: I want to point out that one of the things
Speaker 1: they're talking about is a joint venture between the two
Speaker 1: if if the merger fails. Um, And I'm not counting
Speaker 1: that as the merger going through. Um. So I mean
Speaker 1: I'm being literal when I say that. Well, and you know,
Speaker 1: this is another time to point out that, uh that
Speaker 1: if it weren't for other political issues that are going
Speaker 1: on right now, uh, this merger might not have been
Speaker 1: such a big red flag. That was a red flag
Speaker 1: for everyone in the tech industry who was worried that, uh,
Speaker 1: the number one or number two and number four carriers
Speaker 1: joining together could end up really reducing innovation and causing
Speaker 1: a reduction and competition and just be bad for consumers overall.
Speaker 1: But now we also have political movements like the occupy movement,
Speaker 1: which are bringing more attention to the way governments treat
Speaker 1: companies versus the way they treat individual citizens. And I
Speaker 1: think that kind of focus has also really hurt the
Speaker 1: chances for that merger going through because now everyone's feeling
Speaker 1: much more cautious about this, because the uproar is getting
Speaker 1: louder and louder. Uh, let me do one, because I've
Speaker 1: just commented on two of yours. Um, how about the
Speaker 1: RIM is going to undergo an executive shuffle. I think
Speaker 1: I think at some point in we're going to see
Speaker 1: a shake up in RIM's executive ranks, whether or not
Speaker 1: this finally means we'll get down to one CEO for
Speaker 1: rem as opposed to the co C e O S.
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I think that shareholders are going
Speaker 1: to demand. You know, REM has had a couple of
Speaker 1: was a tough year for REM, and I think if
Speaker 1: if they don't do something dramatic at the organizational level, uh,
Speaker 1: shareholders are not going to continue supporting the company because
Speaker 1: it's They're gonna be worried about the decisions being made there.
Speaker 1: So I expect that sometime in twelve we're going to
Speaker 1: see a big shake up in the executive structure. All right, Um,
Speaker 1: I made considerably more predictions this year than I did
Speaker 1: last year. So do you do you do you want
Speaker 1: to go again? Or you want me to know you
Speaker 1: go ahead? Okay, all right? Um? Other financial stuff this
Speaker 1: is this is another gimme. Although we've been talking about
Speaker 1: it for years. I think Facebook is finally ready to
Speaker 1: have an initial public offering of stock and I think
Speaker 1: it's really gonna happen this time. I also think that
Speaker 1: they're going to hit one billion users before the end
Speaker 1: of which is the million now, so I think they'll
Speaker 1: hit a billion users before the end of the year.
Speaker 1: And also, yeah, I think they will go public, So
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get that was it ten billion
Speaker 1: that they're hoping for with an initial public offering, their
Speaker 1: value that a hundred billion. I think it's a ten billion.
Speaker 1: I p o that that at least that was the
Speaker 1: most recent rumor I read. Um, I think that's gonna
Speaker 1: happen too. I agree. Um, Here's okay, I have a
Speaker 1: crazy one. This is one that I think. I don't
Speaker 1: I don't think this is really going to happen. I
Speaker 1: really don't think it's gonna happen. But I wanted to
Speaker 1: have a crazy prediction. So here's my crazy prediction. Google
Speaker 1: purchases Twitter. Really Yeah, because Twitter, I mean really, Twitter
Speaker 1: has been sticking around for ages and ages and ages,
Speaker 1: and it uh somewhat defiantly because even now, even where
Speaker 1: it has its limited advertisement model and and I just
Speaker 1: can't imagine it's pulling in the revenue. It needs to
Speaker 1: be a really viable business, right, I mean, it's mostly
Speaker 1: still existing or it's it's been it's traditionally, it's it's
Speaker 1: existed upon venture capitalists investing money into the company, and
Speaker 1: I think, uh, you know, you can only keep that
Speaker 1: up for so long before people just lose faith and
Speaker 1: they won't pour money into it. No matter how important
Speaker 1: that services. I think Google is the company that would,
Speaker 1: just like Google did with YouTube, I think Google would
Speaker 1: would take up the Twitter in that sense too, and
Speaker 1: also say like, now we can treat you just like
Speaker 1: we did Jaiku. So every and like and like in
Speaker 1: like a year, it'll be gone. No. I think that
Speaker 1: that's my crazy prediction. And again I don't really believe it,
Speaker 1: but I wanted to predict it. Okay, all right, It's
Speaker 1: funny because I keep looking for segways, and I keep
Speaker 1: seeing multiple segways that I could take. I think I'll
Speaker 1: stick with the Google thing. I thought you're gonna make
Speaker 1: a prediction about segways. No, not no actual segways, not
Speaker 1: the segways. Um. I although people have been predicting it's demise,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's I think it's crazy to predict
Speaker 1: that Google Plus will will just die. I think Google
Speaker 1: Plus will slowly increase its user base over the course
Speaker 1: of and uh some modest gains. Yeah, I think it. Well,
Speaker 1: it's funny because once people got let in, uh and
Speaker 1: they started not using it in droves. I think people
Speaker 1: really haven't given it as much of a shakedown as
Speaker 1: they need to. And I think that, especially now that
Speaker 1: Google is redesigning its user interface to promote Google Plus
Speaker 1: more thoroughly and making it it's sort of a hub
Speaker 1: for people's um attention. I think it will gradually. I
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna, you know, beat out Facebook next year,
Speaker 1: but I do think that it's going to people are
Speaker 1: gonna go, no, you know what, this is just not
Speaker 1: so bad. I kind of like it. Unless they've been
Speaker 1: adding functionality over the course of a few months, it's
Speaker 1: been open to you. I think it'll grow. It looks
Speaker 1: to me like Google Plus. His journey is very similar
Speaker 1: to what I saw on Twitter, and that there was
Speaker 1: a quick rush to kind of check out what this
Speaker 1: new toy was, and then a very sharp drop off
Speaker 1: as people thought this isn't what I wanted it to
Speaker 1: be and they leave, and then just slow gains after
Speaker 1: that until more and more people are using it. I mean,
Speaker 1: I still have several thousand people following me on Google Plus,
Speaker 1: and that's more than I have on Twitter. Um, and it's, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's still a very good tool to
Speaker 1: engage people now. Granted, a lot of the people who
Speaker 1: follow me end up looking like they are some sort
Speaker 1: of bought or something, or it's just a an account
Speaker 1: that's made in order to repost other people's stuff that
Speaker 1: there's nothing original in there. You go and you look
Speaker 1: at the uh the posts that the person made, and
Speaker 1: they're all shares of some other person's posts, so they're
Speaker 1: not like anything original. A friend of mine complained about
Speaker 1: that just yesterday, literally, and I think Google has been
Speaker 1: removing some of those two because my my follower numbers
Speaker 1: have been fluctuing. Either that or I'm driving people away,
Speaker 1: which is also possible. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna negate that. Uh here's one of my
Speaker 1: others guesses just a while us. Uh So in twelve,
Speaker 1: I think it has to do this for this, for
Speaker 1: for it to stay together. But Netflix gets its act together,
Speaker 1: in which may possibly include letting read Hastings go. Might
Speaker 1: include that because read Hastings I mean eleven was had
Speaker 1: a series of missteps for Netflix, and Netflix lost a
Speaker 1: lot of the support and uh an admiration in the
Speaker 1: tech community starting in the summer of eleven when it
Speaker 1: announced that it was changing the pricing plans for streaming
Speaker 1: versus DVD plus streaming versus DVD only. And then then,
Speaker 1: of course they alienated even more people when there was
Speaker 1: the announcement that Netflix was going to split into two
Speaker 1: different companies where one would just do DVD distribution and
Speaker 1: the other one would do digital uh. And then when
Speaker 1: they went back on that, they got even more derision,
Speaker 1: mostly because they're like, well, if you're gonna make a stand,
Speaker 1: at least stick to it. You made a choice that
Speaker 1: I hate, but then you went back to the choice
Speaker 1: that I hated slightly less, so I hate you more
Speaker 1: now I like, wait that what? So? Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: Netflix has been battered around a lot. In some cases
Speaker 1: it was you know, you understandable at least on the
Speaker 1: part of the people who are upset, you can understand
Speaker 1: why they're upset. In other cases, I think it might
Speaker 1: be one of those like you just heap more and
Speaker 1: more abuse on as it goes on. But I think
Speaker 1: that the company has to do something in twelve to
Speaker 1: recapture some of that good faith. That might mean Read
Speaker 1: Hastings has to go. Although personally, you know, I have
Speaker 1: no problem with the guy, so I don't. I don't know,
Speaker 1: But I'm not a shareholder either. I'm not I'm not
Speaker 1: a stakeholder in Netflix, so um, I'm not you know,
Speaker 1: I don't have much to say about it on that sense,
Speaker 1: so we'll see. Yeah. I think they actually made some
Speaker 1: some decent decisions, but made them at a bad time.
Speaker 1: They made drastic changes to the service when the public
Speaker 1: was not ready to And Netflix is doing some stuff
Speaker 1: that's similar to things we've seen Apple do in the past,
Speaker 1: in the sense that in order to reach the world
Speaker 1: that Netflix wants us to be in, that being a
Speaker 1: world where digital distribution is the norm. In order to
Speaker 1: reach that world, you have to make some pretty tough
Speaker 1: sacrifices and force people's hands to adopt to the new model,
Speaker 1: because if you don't know, everyone drags their feet and
Speaker 1: progress is very slow. Apple does the same thing when
Speaker 1: Apple sees the opportunity to support one future technology, but
Speaker 1: it means that you have to wait for an older
Speaker 1: technology to die out. Apple just stop supporting the old technology,
Speaker 1: and then they're like, well, here's the thing. We're forcing
Speaker 1: you now to adopt this, and you might not like it,
Speaker 1: you might kick and screen, but this, trust us, this
Speaker 1: is better for you. And I think the problem is that, uh,
Speaker 1: Netflix did this and probably didn't do it as smoothly
Speaker 1: as Apple did or as convincingly and so uh they
Speaker 1: got a lot of of resistance. Plus Apple is a
Speaker 1: smaller player in its own market for compute huoters anyway,
Speaker 1: and uh, Netflix is the dominant um digital media digital
Speaker 1: DVD really when you get down to it. Okay, next
Speaker 1: one for you? Um, okay, I'll go with one of
Speaker 1: my my vague ones. Actually this is probably my most
Speaker 1: vague one. Um, Facebook will make some huge acquisition that
Speaker 1: will all go huhh over. Um. I don't think it'll
Speaker 1: be Yahoo, but it's gonna They're gonna acquire somebody and
Speaker 1: you're going, but what what's that gonna do? Yeah, PepsiCo interesting?
Speaker 1: Facebook the choice for the new generation. Can I get
Speaker 1: a Facebook free? If you want a Facebook, you're gonna
Speaker 1: have to pay for it? Facebook on my tab? Um,
Speaker 1: So anyway, Yeah, I think I think they're gonna make
Speaker 1: any I mean, it's not like, uh, you know, if
Speaker 1: Google purchase Twitter, you go yeah, but I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: social media and of course you know. But yeah, I
Speaker 1: think Facebook's and it may not be somebody that's bad
Speaker 1: for Facebook, but it's gonna be something that we're gonna go.
Speaker 1: But why do you need that? Um, so you know
Speaker 1: it's it's a loose prediction. But you know, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: have said if I had said Google would launch a
Speaker 1: social network in I mean sort of along those lines,
Speaker 1: I mean, like Facebook and Spotify, that was kind of surprising.
Speaker 1: I mean you would imagine, like I mean, it wouldn't
Speaker 1: have been hard to imagine Spotify incorporating the Facebook connect
Speaker 1: as a way to connect to Spotify in the United States,
Speaker 1: but to make it the way is kind of well,
Speaker 1: that was unusual. Let's say, if if Facebook gobbled up Twitter,
Speaker 1: that would be one thing. But I'm talking like Facebook
Speaker 1: gobbles up Xerox? What why? Why on? Or how aboutould
Speaker 1: you do that Facebook gobbles up like Hulu or something
Speaker 1: something like that? Something unusual? It doesn't quite make sense,
Speaker 1: all right? How about? Um, here's this one's kind of
Speaker 1: a gimme in a way. This is the year is
Speaker 1: the year at E three we will see the next
Speaker 1: generation consoles from Microsoft and Sonya. So we'll see the
Speaker 1: predicted that two years ago and got my rear end
Speaker 1: handed to me on a platter. Yeah, two years running. Actually,
Speaker 1: because I think you I think you've predicted in two
Speaker 1: thousand nine and in two thousand ten. I think two
Speaker 1: thousand twelve is the year. Well, we've heard some rumors already.
Speaker 1: We've heard rumors that the successor to the three sixty
Speaker 1: will have connect like functionality built directly into the console,
Speaker 1: and that it will be even more advanced to be
Speaker 1: able to do things like to tell what mood you
Speaker 1: are in, or even be able to read your lips. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so there's that rumor. And I've also read rumors that
Speaker 1: Sony's next UM console, the PlayStation four or whatever it
Speaker 1: might be called, will also contain some sort of connect
Speaker 1: functionality built into it. So there's a lot of a
Speaker 1: lot of money being put towards this whole connect style
Speaker 1: of gaming and interaction UH and and hopefully that will
Speaker 1: mean that we're going to see even more UH innovative
Speaker 1: games and gameplay modes. I think a lot of the
Speaker 1: games that we've been seeing are just scratching the surface
Speaker 1: because people are still figuring out how to best use
Speaker 1: this interface, how to best leverage it. And that's that's
Speaker 1: true whenever any new unit user interface comes out. You know,
Speaker 1: the first few things that come out are kind of interesting,
Speaker 1: but they're almost more like toys than anything really useful.
Speaker 1: And then as the technology mature, as we start seeing
Speaker 1: assuming that people adopted, we start seeing more compelling products.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think at E three we're going to
Speaker 1: see at least a preview of the next Microsoft console
Speaker 1: and the next Sony console. It may may not come
Speaker 1: out in twelve, but we'll at least get our first preview. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, I have a several game uh predictions. Um,
Speaker 1: I think the one that's closest to that, sticking with
Speaker 1: my segway idea, would be the we u Um, which
Speaker 1: is supposed to come out. Um, I think it's going
Speaker 1: to be a minor hit. I don't think. I think
Speaker 1: I think it will sell. The three DS is actually
Speaker 1: their sales have been increasing recently, so that's started to
Speaker 1: climb out of a slump. So maybe Nintendo is like
Speaker 1: on the upswing of its dip. Yeah, because I'd say
Speaker 1: in twenty eleven it did kind of start to falter
Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, but but once Um Games for
Speaker 1: the three D s Storty coming out, like the Mario
Speaker 1: Games Story coming out for the three DS, the sales
Speaker 1: started to improve. So again Nintendo banking on that intellectual
Speaker 1: property that has served them so well in the past.
Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe that We You would also have an
Speaker 1: initial success, especially if they're able to target not just
Speaker 1: the casual gamers, but the loyal like hard more hardcore gamers,
Speaker 1: not like hardcore in the sense of I need to
Speaker 1: you know, there has to be body limbs flying all
Speaker 1: over the screen for me to buy a game, but
Speaker 1: that you know, they're the dedicated gamers, the people who
Speaker 1: who will spend a lot of time and money that
Speaker 1: will go out, they'll buy the latest games as they
Speaker 1: come out. Yeah, I think I think the The We
Speaker 1: You will be a hit among a lot of those people.
Speaker 1: But I don't think it's gonna catch on as quickly
Speaker 1: as The We itself did when it was released. I
Speaker 1: don't think there's gonna be the same line. I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be sort of a similar at adoption rate
Speaker 1: as the three D S where people go, yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: but it's we don't really have to have that, And
Speaker 1: it's rumored to be more expensive than We was when
Speaker 1: it launched. So that may also especially if if again,
Speaker 1: if that economic uncertainty also means that there's a downturn
Speaker 1: in general, then people may be more careful with their
Speaker 1: money and there may be less consumer spending. And that's
Speaker 1: why I'm saying a lot of the things I'm predicting
Speaker 1: hinge on the economy because in some cases, companies may say,
Speaker 1: you know what, We're gonna hold off introducing this product
Speaker 1: line until and see if maybe the economic outlook is
Speaker 1: better than that. That sometimes happens. Um. Okay, So sticking
Speaker 1: with Nintendo, here's another crazy prediction, this one. I I
Speaker 1: go back and forth on this one. Okay, So Nintendo
Speaker 1: begins to develop a smartphone. Wow. So the idea that
Speaker 1: Nintendo decides to get into this, uh, take the next
Speaker 1: plunge and go into the smartphone realm. Either they partner
Speaker 1: with someone where a very specific partner is going to
Speaker 1: have access to some of Nintendo's intellectual properties, or they
Speaker 1: specifically go into the business of developing a smartphone that
Speaker 1: is branded with the Nintendo where you can buy Nintendo
Speaker 1: games through the phone's ecosystem, and that it is essentially
Speaker 1: the next step in their handheld gaming market, because that's
Speaker 1: where handheld gaming is right now, is in the smartphone market.
Speaker 1: And if you don't if you don't join that, then
Speaker 1: you might as well just get out of that industry
Speaker 1: the handheld gaming units are. It's harder and harder to
Speaker 1: sell one of those that doesn't have a phone in it. Okay, well,
Speaker 1: that's actually, uh in contrast with what you were saying
Speaker 1: a moment ago, and but in more in line with that,
Speaker 1: I had predicted that Nintendo is going to need to
Speaker 1: reduce the price that the three D s again. And
Speaker 1: it might. It might even. I mean, the sales that
Speaker 1: kind of bounced up might very well be like end
Speaker 1: of the year Christmas present kind of thing. Right, So
Speaker 1: those sales figures I mean to say, not sales like
Speaker 1: sales prices, but sales figures. Um, it may not be
Speaker 1: that the three DS gets widespread adoption like the other
Speaker 1: Nintendo handheld systems until we see at another price drop.
Speaker 1: It was dramatic to see a price drop happened within
Speaker 1: the first half year of the three ys being on
Speaker 1: the shelves. I have another one of those coming up
Speaker 1: that's very similar to that. Okay, well, I have one
Speaker 1: that this is a question really not so much a prediction,
Speaker 1: because there's actually a rumor out right now as we
Speaker 1: record this, which is again early December. There's a rumor
Speaker 1: and it's been going around for a while, but I've
Speaker 1: just seen it get traction recently that the iPad three
Speaker 1: or the successor to the iPad two, whatever it might
Speaker 1: be called, if it's had two plus or whatever two
Speaker 1: s that it will have a three D screen so
Speaker 1: that you'll be able to look at stuff in three D.
Speaker 1: That is the rumor. Here's my prediction. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's gonna happen. And here's here's my reasoning why I
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna happen. Uh, it's it's actually got
Speaker 1: multiple levels to it. One is that the three D thing,
Speaker 1: it's an experience that doesn't it's not universal, okay, Like
Speaker 1: there are people who have vision issues or whatever who
Speaker 1: cannot see the three D images. Uh, it's very easy
Speaker 1: to get it wrong so that you might you know,
Speaker 1: you if you have to design a screen for someone
Speaker 1: and you have to make it adjustable, because if you
Speaker 1: don't make it adjustable, if you make it try and
Speaker 1: make it one size fits all, they're gonna be a
Speaker 1: lot of people where it's not going to be the
Speaker 1: best effects because our eyes are space differently, you know,
Speaker 1: Like my eyes are not as far apart as someone
Speaker 1: else's eyes, and someone else's eyes might be um closer
Speaker 1: together than my eyes are, and that affects how we
Speaker 1: would see a screen that has three D projection in
Speaker 1: it um. So because of that, Apple would have to
Speaker 1: design some sort of of ability to like the three ds,
Speaker 1: to adjust the level of three D, which you could
Speaker 1: get it just right without giving yourself a migraine trying
Speaker 1: to stare at this thing. But ultimately, the number one
Speaker 1: thing that I think suggests that a three D screen
Speaker 1: is not a good idea for an iPad is the interface.
Speaker 1: The interface is a touch screen interface. Why would you
Speaker 1: create a that's a two dimensional interface? Right, Yeah, that's true.
Speaker 1: Why would you have a two dimensional interface to interact
Speaker 1: with a three dimensional screen? Yeah, you would need like
Speaker 1: an iPad cube. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Even
Speaker 1: if you were to include the camera so that the
Speaker 1: camera sees you, you would have to figure out how
Speaker 1: to teach the processor to understand depth, and you would
Speaker 1: have to learn the depth. So like, if I have
Speaker 1: a three dimensional virtual environment, then that means I can
Speaker 1: I can stack data in lots of different ways. But
Speaker 1: if my interface is still a touch screen, I can
Speaker 1: effectively only put it horizontally in vertically. I can't go
Speaker 1: deep because there's no way to select that data. I
Speaker 1: always se like something that's in the background versus the foreground.
Speaker 1: In that case, UM, I think it's just too clunky.
Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense. The only way it would make
Speaker 1: sense is if you were just doing it for the
Speaker 1: effect of watching media. So if you wanted to watch
Speaker 1: a three D movie on your iPad, I think that
Speaker 1: that doesn't make sense financially to put that kind of
Speaker 1: uh investment in for something that's so limited and functionality.
Speaker 1: So it may very well turn out that I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: and maybe an Apple, of course is very good at
Speaker 1: at designing things that that work in ways I did
Speaker 1: not anticipate. I mean, the iPad is the perfect example
Speaker 1: of that. But based upon what I know about three
Speaker 1: D tech, and especially glasses free three D tech, and
Speaker 1: based upon the interface that the iPad uses, I just
Speaker 1: don't see it being a thing. So I'm gonna say
Speaker 1: that the iPad three or two S or whatever it's
Speaker 1: going to be called will not have a glasses free
Speaker 1: three D screen included. Yeah. Now, I have seen additional
Speaker 1: rumors that the screen will have a higher resolution display.
Speaker 1: It's sort of a gimme, I think, um people have
Speaker 1: been wanting that since the first iPad. As soon as
Speaker 1: I Pad iPhone four came out with the retina display,
Speaker 1: people were hoping that the iPad two would support the
Speaker 1: same thing. Now, of course it did not, but now
Speaker 1: there are hopes that the next generation iPad will have
Speaker 1: a retina display. Now, over the past couple of years,
Speaker 1: Jonavan has made a couple of predictions that you know
Speaker 1: where he was really going out on a limb and
Speaker 1: and uh turn out, you know, remember the iPad, the
Speaker 1: big failure. It was going to be uh so, so anyway,
Speaker 1: so anyway, I decided to go ahead and and and
Speaker 1: do one of my own where this this I could
Speaker 1: very easily get t boned on this one. There have
Speaker 1: been rumors that Apple is coming out with televisions, and
Speaker 1: I think I do think that's eventually going to happen.
Speaker 1: I think they're moving into compete with people like Sony
Speaker 1: and Samsung and LG. But I don't think you're gonna
Speaker 1: see the first ones come out in Okay, I disagree. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's going to come out with its first Apple TV
Speaker 1: in twelve. Yeah, a real Apple TV, an Apple TV,
Speaker 1: which not exists. But it's not an actual television with
Speaker 1: Apple functionality built into it, not a set top box,
Speaker 1: It's built into the television unit itself. So I say
Speaker 1: that comes out. That was one of my predictions. Awesome.
Speaker 1: So uh, we very rarely do that, since we work
Speaker 1: independently on I don't necessarily feel strongly about it. Again,
Speaker 1: but I'm willing. I'm I'm willing to put my neck
Speaker 1: out on that one. So uh yeah, one of us
Speaker 1: will be right, one of us will be wrong, which
Speaker 1: means that one of us will get a blender and
Speaker 1: the other one will get a puppy. All right? Then? Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: so was that was that your prediction there? Or well,
Speaker 1: how many more do you have left? U don't I
Speaker 1: have a handful. I've got a few as well, so
Speaker 1: we can we can keep going back and forth. Sort
Speaker 1: of a related thing. Um, I I predict that new
Speaker 1: Google TV products will be coming out and no one
Speaker 1: will care. Yeah, I I have no disagreement there. I
Speaker 1: think Google TV. I think it launched too early. It
Speaker 1: launched too early with not enough features, and so it
Speaker 1: got a very kind of lackluster response and it's going
Speaker 1: to be really difficult to fight that off. Even if
Speaker 1: Google comes out with a truly compelling product to fight
Speaker 1: off the first impression people had that Google Television was
Speaker 1: kind of a well, this isn't what I was expecting.
Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like it's what I was promised. I
Speaker 1: think even if Google comes out with the perfect product now,
Speaker 1: it would be an uphill battle because people already have
Speaker 1: that impression that's just not what they want. And I
Speaker 1: think I think these products also are sort of like DVRs.
Speaker 1: I mean, people never really rushed out to buy themselves
Speaker 1: a TVO or other stuff, but I mean people have
Speaker 1: been adopting them, but it's sort of that under their radar.
Speaker 1: It's definitely like the perfect example of the long tail.
Speaker 1: You know, it's really a long tail product where you'd
Speaker 1: have a few early adopters and their word of mouth
Speaker 1: was enough to perpetuate sales, but the sales weren't huge
Speaker 1: all in a and they weren't front loaded. They were
Speaker 1: just kind of spread out. Um, all right, well here's
Speaker 1: one for me. At least one of the big daily
Speaker 1: deal sites will go under at least one. So these
Speaker 1: are things like living social group on scout Bob. Google
Speaker 1: has its own version Google deals, you know, so we're
Speaker 1: gonna I think at least one of those is gonna
Speaker 1: collapse because there's so the markets flooded, there's so many
Speaker 1: of them that I don't think it can sustain all
Speaker 1: of them together. Okay, UM, I have one. Apple will
Speaker 1: not announce NFC for an iPhone. We won't have near
Speaker 1: field communications. I think I think it's probable that Google
Speaker 1: wallet will slowly grow sort of the same thing. Is
Speaker 1: that what we were just talking about. I just don't
Speaker 1: think people care right now here in the United States
Speaker 1: about near field communication, and I don't think the iPhone.
Speaker 1: I don't think Apple is going to rush out to
Speaker 1: UH to meet Google on that field of battle. Yet.
Speaker 1: I think part of it is that more and more
Speaker 1: UH emphasis in the tech world anyway, not necessarily on
Speaker 1: the individual consumer, but in the tech world is on
Speaker 1: UH distribution centers like Amazon. So it's going further away
Speaker 1: from the point of sale retail shops in the first place.
Speaker 1: So making that point of sale thing easier doesn't really
Speaker 1: a lot of people that there's no validity to that
Speaker 1: because that's not their shopping experience, or at least in
Speaker 1: the tech world, that's how it seems now like again
Speaker 1: from the average consumer who is going out and shopping
Speaker 1: for Christmas presents, Maybe that's not the case. Maybe there
Speaker 1: are the person who hits those brick and border stores
Speaker 1: over and over again, in which case they might really
Speaker 1: welcome near field community patients solutions. How about Microsoft Windows
Speaker 1: tablets will debut to modest results, like they're not gonna
Speaker 1: They're not gonna take a big chunk out of the
Speaker 1: tablet market. I think I think I the the iPad
Speaker 1: will still be firmly in the lead. I think Android
Speaker 1: will be in second and Windows might take third. They
Speaker 1: might actually overtake all those touch pads that were sold
Speaker 1: in late yea. Um. Actually I had written this down
Speaker 1: on the Predictions episode and I didn't move it over
Speaker 1: to my predictions list for I think HP is going
Speaker 1: to do something useful with web os. I think it
Speaker 1: may actually even hang onto it. So you think they're
Speaker 1: reversing what uh Leo said back in uh the former
Speaker 1: CEO of HP said back in the summer of eleven,
Speaker 1: where HP was supposedly going to get out of the
Speaker 1: consumer computer business as well as halt developing webOS. And
Speaker 1: now both of those statements seem to be Um, well,
Speaker 1: it seemed to be in question. Yeah, now that the
Speaker 1: announcement may come by the end of but I think
Speaker 1: I think they're going to real Well, a lot of
Speaker 1: people said what are you doing? Why are you doing that? Um?
Speaker 1: And I do think although the tablets weren't selling before
Speaker 1: the discounts, um, I think the price had more to
Speaker 1: do that with that than the webOS part. Okay, So
Speaker 1: I think is going to be the swan song for
Speaker 1: the compact disc mhm. I think that we're going to
Speaker 1: see lots of companies cut way back on manufacturing discs
Speaker 1: and start to rely more on digital distribution as their
Speaker 1: primary means of getting music out to customers for DVDs
Speaker 1: or just CDs. CDs. I think DVD still have a
Speaker 1: little way to go, mostly because, um, it's a lot
Speaker 1: It's still easier for someone to download a CD than
Speaker 1: it is for them to You can stream movies pretty easily.
Speaker 1: Downloading a film the requires that you have more space
Speaker 1: and a faster connection to do it in a way
Speaker 1: that has a good experience for the consumers. So I
Speaker 1: think I think we're not quite there yet. I mean,
Speaker 1: most most of our listeners are probably there, like most
Speaker 1: of our listeners are probably in the group of people
Speaker 1: who have the kind of connections and and equipment where
Speaker 1: downloading a film wouldn't be a huge deal. But for
Speaker 1: the vast majority of people out there, the big audience
Speaker 1: that you have to aim for because that's where your
Speaker 1: money is going to be. I don't think they're there yet,
Speaker 1: but they are there as far as CD sales go,
Speaker 1: So I think CDs aren't going to disappear, but I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be more rare, and that you'll
Speaker 1: more likely have to buy things through some sort of
Speaker 1: digital distribution, either iTunes or Amazon or directly from whatever
Speaker 1: the music label is, or even the band in some cases,
Speaker 1: because we may we may. This may be the getting
Speaker 1: of the end for the major labels as we recognize
Speaker 1: them now. They'll still, I think, be around. I just
Speaker 1: don't think that they'll be as big a power player
Speaker 1: as they were in the decades past. Um. Since this
Speaker 1: is I don't really have a good segue for this one,
Speaker 1: so I'll throw out my left field thing. I think
Speaker 1: that Canonical, the manufacturers of uh several different flavors of
Speaker 1: lenox um, will ditch Unity as the main interface for
Speaker 1: a Buntu because it has gone over like the biggest
Speaker 1: lead balloon of all lead balloons. Yeah, uh yeah, there's
Speaker 1: not a lot of love for it. I think they
Speaker 1: may try to refurbish it, but I think they may
Speaker 1: go back to gnome as the main gnome and clature
Speaker 1: for for it. Um. Of course, it's easy. It's easy
Speaker 1: enough to to choose it. And that's something that I
Speaker 1: read recently in a in a critique of the new interface. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's not like anybody has to stick
Speaker 1: with Unity. You can go with any number of other
Speaker 1: interfaces pretty easily. Um. But yeah, there's there's been so
Speaker 1: much uh complaint about it. I think that they're gonna
Speaker 1: go with something else or or come, you know, maybe
Speaker 1: completely overhaul. But I'm gonna say for the official prediction
Speaker 1: that they're gonna ditch it. Um. So what's next? I
Speaker 1: only have one left out of my official predictions unless
Speaker 1: I think of some while we're talking, um, and this one. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's such a lame one. I don't know
Speaker 1: why it chose this as the last one. Uh. But
Speaker 1: you know, we've got another election year coming up. I
Speaker 1: think that tech is going to play the biggest role
Speaker 1: ever in election history this year I want to give
Speaker 1: I know, that's what I said. It was lame. I
Speaker 1: was like, you know, the more I wrote this down,
Speaker 1: the more I'm like, and water is wet, so it
Speaker 1: already has. So you know what, I'm not gonna I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna really even next year, I'm not going to
Speaker 1: count that. I mean, normally I would win at least
Speaker 1: a donkey or an elephant out of that one. But
Speaker 1: I think, uh, I think that one is such a
Speaker 1: GIMMI that you know, people who people who would be
Speaker 1: visiting our planet for the first time would be able
Speaker 1: to tell you that within five minutes of note looking around.
Speaker 1: So yeah, okay, I have well I have several, but
Speaker 1: a couple of them I'm just gonna ditch. Um. I
Speaker 1: have four left. I think that um that I want
Speaker 1: to keep going with. One is that now, keeping in
Speaker 1: mind this, it's been out for a short time. So
Speaker 1: even though it released in I'm gonna say that in
Speaker 1: the kindle fire will be a hit. I think it's
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna do really well over the next year.
Speaker 1: So you're you're calling it like a true success, Like
Speaker 1: a true success, I think it might be the first. Um,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think it might be the
Speaker 1: first non iPad to truly succeed in the market. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've got lots of other non iPad tablets out there,
Speaker 1: but I don't think any of them have been hailed
Speaker 1: as a true success. And HPS touchpad did. Okay, I
Speaker 1: don't count. You don't count that that's a fluke because
Speaker 1: of the pricing. That doesn't mean people would have bought
Speaker 1: anything and a hundred dollars if it were in a
Speaker 1: tablet for probably like you know, if it was a
Speaker 1: Window seven tablet for a hundred bucks, that probably would
Speaker 1: have gone out and rushed out and bought those. Um.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that the the the Kindle Fire
Speaker 1: has the potential to be the the number two tablet.
Speaker 1: Like if you're talking about specific models, uh, because again,
Speaker 1: the Android tablet space is so diverse that it's hard
Speaker 1: for any one kind of tablet to get true success
Speaker 1: in that field because there's just so many different ones,
Speaker 1: and you know, it requires that the consumer be informed
Speaker 1: about his or her choice. You know, when you go
Speaker 1: if you just know what a tablet is and you
Speaker 1: know what Android is, but you don't know anything Beyond that,
Speaker 1: going into a store and shopping for Android tablets is
Speaker 1: maddening because there's so many different kinds and you don't
Speaker 1: necessarily know which ones are really gonna be good versus um,
Speaker 1: some that are just going to be slow and unresponsive
Speaker 1: and and maybe running Android one point six, you know,
Speaker 1: so um And related to that, I say that, and
Speaker 1: there's been speculation that the Kindle fire will cause Apple
Speaker 1: to lower prices at the iPad. I say, no, I
Speaker 1: don't think. I don't think they're gonna do it now.
Speaker 1: Apple is has traditionally been sort of that premium kind
Speaker 1: of uh product, especially since Steve Jobs came back. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean there's aimed for that niche. Yeah, that was
Speaker 1: that was what. That's kind of their corporate identity. They're
Speaker 1: not known for marking down prices in the face of competition.
Speaker 1: They're they're known for just pouring even more effort into
Speaker 1: innovation and marketing and convincing people that whatever it is
Speaker 1: they're coming out with is what you have to have.
Speaker 1: I can't you know, I've heard people talk about how
Speaker 1: the market forces like netbooks were supposed to bring down
Speaker 1: Mac prices. You know, that was the big thing they
Speaker 1: didn't really do that either. Now, granted, you could also
Speaker 1: say that, well, Apple keeps coming out with more advanced
Speaker 1: hardware and then marketing it for the same price as
Speaker 1: the previous generation hardware, so in a way, prices are
Speaker 1: kind of falling sort of, but not in the traditional sense. Yeah. Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: And then let's see I said that Windows will release
Speaker 1: two sort of lackluster adoption. Um, and that's twofold. I
Speaker 1: think it suffers from the same problem that Lion does
Speaker 1: for for the macOS, and that it's got a very
Speaker 1: different interface. And yes, before you write me, I know
Speaker 1: you can change its metro. Yeah, it's going to the
Speaker 1: metro interface. For those of you who don't know, is
Speaker 1: the interface for the Windows eight porta bowl devices and
Speaker 1: Windows seven portable stuff that's out there now you see
Speaker 1: on there if you've seen commercials with a little colorful
Speaker 1: boxes on the phones, that's what the Windows eight you
Speaker 1: user interface is supposed to look like for computers, Yeah,
Speaker 1: which which would work be great if you have a
Speaker 1: touch screen monitor, but if you don't have a touch
Speaker 1: screen monitor. There's some people who suggest that that particular
Speaker 1: way of organizing data is not really that intuitive because
Speaker 1: you can't navigate through it as as easily. That's one
Speaker 1: of the big things that we've talked about with that.
Speaker 1: We're plan on doing a user interface podcast at some point.
Speaker 1: We're talk about the design of a user interface and
Speaker 1: what goes into that, because there's so much more beyond
Speaker 1: just technical uh sex. But you know, we've seen like
Speaker 1: kids pick up an iPad and that just they learn
Speaker 1: how to navigate that iPad really quickly. You know. It's
Speaker 1: it's one of those things that's just very intuitive. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So kids intuitively can figure out how to navigate these things.
Speaker 1: So there is a, uh, there is a an urge
Speaker 1: to move toward that because everyone's like, well, this, this
Speaker 1: is there's something here. It's just it's it's almost magical,
Speaker 1: like to to use an Apple type phrase. But when
Speaker 1: you get it to a desktop modality where there's no
Speaker 1: there's not necessarily a touch screen part of the interface,
Speaker 1: it's not nearly as intuitive because you're navigating you're not
Speaker 1: navigating it the same way you would if you were,
Speaker 1: say a touch screen tablet. Yeah, and and and here's
Speaker 1: the thing. I mean, yes, you can you can operate
Speaker 1: Windows eight in that mode or in a more traditional
Speaker 1: mode but they've been marketing it at using the the
Speaker 1: Metro stuff on that initial thing. Look what you can
Speaker 1: do here. Um. I think if they continue marketing Metro
Speaker 1: as the primary interface, people are going to be a
Speaker 1: little put off by that and they suffer from another problem.
Speaker 1: Windows seven it's really good, um, and people have been
Speaker 1: adopting it now. It's it's you know, surpassed Vista in
Speaker 1: a option at this point. UM. And I think now
Speaker 1: that XP is going out, I think people are just
Speaker 1: gonna go with Windows seven unless you know, Microsoft completely
Speaker 1: makes it unavailable. This is kind of crazy because when
Speaker 1: you think about think about how long XP stuck around, Yeah,
Speaker 1: ten years, ten years of XP and then because it works,
Speaker 1: and then what happened was people did not like Vista,
Speaker 1: or enough people did not like Vista for it to
Speaker 1: be a problem, and uh, and then Windows seven came
Speaker 1: around it seemed to be a big improvement. It does
Speaker 1: seem weird to go from Windows seven to Windows eight
Speaker 1: so relatively quickly when you look at how long there
Speaker 1: was a a pause from Windows XP to Windows Vista.
Speaker 1: And yes there were other versions of Windows that came
Speaker 1: out between those, but we're talking about mass adoption here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so I think and mass adoption and and actual like
Speaker 1: personal computers as opposed to web servers and things like that.
Speaker 1: So I just don't think it's going to take off.
Speaker 1: And my my last one, I'm gonna go with my
Speaker 1: gimme for the last one. Blizzard will release Diablo three
Speaker 1: and it will become a massive hit. Wow, I gotta
Speaker 1: get it. I gotta get a demon or something out
Speaker 1: of that. I would predict that there will be uh
Speaker 1: a dramatic increase in people complaining about right index finger pain.
Speaker 1: That's exactly possible directly as a result of blizzards of
Speaker 1: blizzards Diablo three releasing. It's going to be a hit. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I didn't make any other predictions about any other game
Speaker 1: titles that I think might come out and next year
Speaker 1: because that that's what Grand Theft All five comes out.
Speaker 1: That'll be excited to see. I think that will be
Speaker 1: a big success. That's also another gimming people have been
Speaker 1: eager for that. But U okay, so here's my final
Speaker 1: final prediction. So you came up with it. Last prediction
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with tech. I'm done. I predict
Speaker 1: this time next year we will be making a prediction
Speaker 1: show and we will ignore the fact that the Mayan
Speaker 1: calendar is coming at an end, and that we will
Speaker 1: just assume that the world will continue going on and
Speaker 1: that we will have to predict stuff to happen. All right,
Speaker 1: So um yeah for those of you who were you know,
Speaker 1: playing on just living it up in twelve because it
Speaker 1: was gonna be the final year. Ever, I don't think so.
Speaker 1: So alright, alright, well let's wrap this up that those
Speaker 1: are our predictions for twenty twelve in the world of technology.
Speaker 1: If you guys have any of your own predictions you
Speaker 1: would like to share, or you have any other questions
Speaker 1: or suggestions for topics you would like us to cover
Speaker 1: in future episodes, let us know. So there's an email
Speaker 1: that addresses tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com,
Speaker 1: or drop us a line on Facebook or Twitter. Are handled.
Speaker 1: There is tech stuff hs W and Chris and I
Speaker 1: will talk to you again in the future. Be shorted.
Speaker 1: Check out our new video podcast, Stuff from the Future.
Speaker 1: Join How Stuff Work staff as we explore the most
Speaker 1: promising and perplexing possibilities of tomorrow. The House Stuff Works
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