1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,960 Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray. 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: tech Stuff from how stuff works dot com. Hello there, 4 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:20,240 Speaker 1: and welcome to tech Stuff. My name is Chris Poulette. 5 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: I'm an editor at how stuff works dot com and 6 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: sitting across from me, as always, or at least for 7 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: the last three years or so, senior writer Jonathan Strickland, 8 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 1: don't stop thinking about tomorrow. Really, yeah, I think you 9 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: need to go part your Fleetwood Mac next to the 10 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: at Uh. So, today we are going to do our 11 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 1: yearly exercise in futility and pain, which is our predictions 12 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: for what is going to happen in the year following. 13 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: And this being the year of eleven, we're looking ahead 14 00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: to twelve and wondering how wrong we can be. Actually, 15 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: you know, our predictions for ended up being more right 16 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: than not. As I recall, you got to say a 17 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: Dreamcast score and I got a World Pool tub. Yes, 18 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: so it was much better than my score for the 19 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: year previous. Yeah, I I see that those are both 20 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 1: perfectly cromulent scores. So we've we've done really well. Uh, 21 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 1: whether or not we will do as well for this 22 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: coming year remains to be seen. Yeah, if you are 23 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: a long term fan, especially, you know that we do 24 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: this every year, or at least Truff tried to do 25 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: this for the last two years. Uh and uh. Also 26 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: you probably listened to our recap of TN, which ended 27 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: up being epic because all the stuff we predicted was 28 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: merely the tip of the iceberg. We had so much 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 1: incredible tech news that we never would have predicted. People 30 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: like Steve Jobs leaving us and the release of Google Plus, 31 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: earthquake in Japan, earthquake in Japan, um, all the all 32 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: these things are things that we never would have guests 33 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: would happen um when they did so. UM. Although my 34 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: first my first prediction does kind of fall into that 35 00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: category stuff that we really you know, I mean, all 36 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 1: indicators point to this. It's just that we can't know 37 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: right now exactly how big an impact it's going to make. 38 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: But mine, my first prediction, is all about economic uncertainty, 39 00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 1: So it was uncertain whether you were going to do 40 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: that or not. Economic markets around the world are in 41 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: trouble right right now. You've got you've got the situation 42 00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: in Greece, which pretty much when about as bad as 43 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: it possibly can you have other situations in Italy there 44 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: there's a lot of concern that the European market is 45 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: in major Uh, there's a major risk that it could 46 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: it could falter and fall apart. Then there's the worry 47 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: about how that fallout would affect the rest of the world. 48 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: So perhaps the United States, which already seems to be 49 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: kind of in its own funk economically speaking, could follow suit. 50 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: There's a lot of worry abo what this could mean. 51 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: And frankly, no matter how it turns out, whether it 52 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: ends up just being a small blip or a massive catastrophe, 53 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: it's going to affect technology because you know, technology runs 54 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: on not just electricity but money. And as the this 55 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: situation gets more and more complex and uncertain, I think 56 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 1: we're going to see that kind of effect the moves 57 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: that companies are going to make in the technology space. 58 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: And that might mean that, uh, we'll see we may 59 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: see some companies go under. You know, companies that are 60 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: kind of on the brink already might might disappear, become 61 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: acquired for a song. Because this of this environment, we 62 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: might see some scale back. We could see that scale 63 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: back coming in the form of fewer products being released, 64 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 1: or perhaps even layoffs or restructuring. Uh. I really think 65 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: that because the there is such uncertainty that we're going 66 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 1: to see a lot of stories that in somewhere another 67 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,400 Speaker 1: relate back to that. I know that's not very specific. 68 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: It's kind of a gimme prediction. It's not really a 69 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: specific prediction. But that's one of the reasons why some 70 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: of the other predictions I've made or thought about are 71 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 1: really tenuous, because the economic situation is so serious and 72 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:26,920 Speaker 1: so unpredictable that a lot of them could hinge on 73 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: it going one way versus another. So that's also me 74 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 1: covering my butt for some of my other predictions I'll 75 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 1: be making. All right, Well, I didn't write these down 76 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: in an order necessarily that I um, I want to 77 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 1: release them, so I think I think I'm basing mine 78 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 1: on that. I think one of the first things that happened, 79 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: and it could very well happen by the end of 80 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: the year, is that Yahoo will get purchased by someone else. Um. There, 81 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: there's already talk right now. As of now, we're we 82 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: didn't mentioned more more recording. This recording us in at 83 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:03,919 Speaker 1: the very end of the first week in December or 84 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: partial week actually the second second so and then this 85 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: has already been in the news, so the Chinese firm 86 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: Ali Baba might some of these predictions may end up 87 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: being predictions for the last month of December or eleven 88 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: rather than uh than for twelve, because we frankly don't 89 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:24,719 Speaker 1: know how it's gonna turn out. I have a similar 90 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: prediction to that, saying that yeah, who will either get 91 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: sold or will break up into various pieces that get 92 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: gobbled up by different companies. There are a lot of 93 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: different properties in Yahoo that I think has still have value, 94 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: things like and also would make a big impact if 95 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: they were to go away, like yeah, who Mail? That 96 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 1: would be pretty catastrophic if that went away. So uh yeah, 97 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: I think that something's yeah whom. If y'all who gets 98 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: spot by Ali Baba, that could means some pretty big 99 00:05:54,480 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: changes down the line. But yeah, this I think would 100 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 1: be the last year for Yahoo as the company that 101 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 1: we we know now. Maybe that whoever buys Yahoo, if 102 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: that does indeed happen, tries to keep it as its 103 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: own separate identity, but it's going to be a different animal, 104 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 1: right right. Another financial related one, I think the A 105 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: T and T and T Mobile USA merger is destined 106 00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: to fail. Um. Again, this is a low hanging for eyah, 107 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: have some some gimmes. And I'm based on everything that's 108 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 1: come out in the news in the last uh month 109 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: or so, really the last two weeks. Um, A lot 110 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: of people are concerned about the competition problems that will 111 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 1: cause here in the United States, and um, I just 112 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna go. Yeah. If it does happen, 113 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: it's going to be such a dramatic, uh departure from 114 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 1: the original deal that it's going to look like something 115 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: different anyway. Like right now, a T and T is 116 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 1: is suggesting it would sell off a large amount of 117 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 1: T Mobiles assets to other companies in order to avoid 118 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: this UH antitrust issue. But whether or not that will 119 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 1: be enough for that deal to actually go through remains 120 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: to be seen. I'm I'm skeptical as well. Yeah. Now, UM, 121 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: I want to point out that one of the things 122 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: they're talking about is a joint venture between the two 123 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 1: if if the merger fails. Um, And I'm not counting 124 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 1: that as the merger going through. Um. So I mean 125 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: I'm being literal when I say that. Well, and you know, 126 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: this is another time to point out that, uh that 127 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: if it weren't for other political issues that are going 128 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:41,600 Speaker 1: on right now, uh, this merger might not have been 129 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:44,239 Speaker 1: such a big red flag. That was a red flag 130 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: for everyone in the tech industry who was worried that, uh, 131 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: the number one or number two and number four carriers 132 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: joining together could end up really reducing innovation and causing 133 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: a reduction and competition and just be bad for consumers overall. 134 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: But now we also have political movements like the occupy movement, 135 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: which are bringing more attention to the way governments treat 136 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: companies versus the way they treat individual citizens. And I 137 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: think that kind of focus has also really hurt the 138 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: chances for that merger going through because now everyone's feeling 139 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: much more cautious about this, because the uproar is getting 140 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: louder and louder. Uh, let me do one, because I've 141 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: just commented on two of yours. Um, how about the 142 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 1: RIM is going to undergo an executive shuffle. I think 143 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: I think at some point in we're going to see 144 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: a shake up in RIM's executive ranks, whether or not 145 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: this finally means we'll get down to one CEO for 146 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 1: rem as opposed to the co C e O S. 147 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: I don't know, but I think that shareholders are going 148 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: to demand. You know, REM has had a couple of 149 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: was a tough year for REM, and I think if 150 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 1: if they don't do something dramatic at the organizational level, uh, 151 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 1: shareholders are not going to continue supporting the company because 152 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: it's They're gonna be worried about the decisions being made there. 153 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: So I expect that sometime in twelve we're going to 154 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: see a big shake up in the executive structure. All right, Um, 155 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: I made considerably more predictions this year than I did 156 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 1: last year. So do you do you do you want 157 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 1: to go again? Or you want me to know you 158 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: go ahead? Okay, all right? Um? Other financial stuff this 159 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: is this is another gimme. Although we've been talking about 160 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: it for years. I think Facebook is finally ready to 161 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: have an initial public offering of stock and I think 162 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 1: it's really gonna happen this time. I also think that 163 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: they're going to hit one billion users before the end 164 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 1: of which is the million now, so I think they'll 165 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,559 Speaker 1: hit a billion users before the end of the year. 166 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: And also, yeah, I think they will go public, So 167 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get that was it ten billion 168 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: that they're hoping for with an initial public offering, their 169 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 1: value that a hundred billion. I think it's a ten billion. 170 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 1: I p o that that at least that was the 171 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 1: most recent rumor I read. Um, I think that's gonna 172 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: happen too. I agree. Um, Here's okay, I have a 173 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: crazy one. This is one that I think. I don't 174 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: I don't think this is really going to happen. I 175 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: really don't think it's gonna happen. But I wanted to 176 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: have a crazy prediction. So here's my crazy prediction. Google 177 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: purchases Twitter. Really Yeah, because Twitter, I mean really, Twitter 178 00:10:34,280 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: has been sticking around for ages and ages and ages, 179 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: and it uh somewhat defiantly because even now, even where 180 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: it has its limited advertisement model and and I just 181 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 1: can't imagine it's pulling in the revenue. It needs to 182 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: be a really viable business, right, I mean, it's mostly 183 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 1: still existing or it's it's been it's traditionally, it's it's 184 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: existed upon venture capitalists investing money into the company, and 185 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: I think, uh, you know, you can only keep that 186 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: up for so long before people just lose faith and 187 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: they won't pour money into it. No matter how important 188 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: that services. I think Google is the company that would, 189 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: just like Google did with YouTube, I think Google would 190 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: would take up the Twitter in that sense too, and 191 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: also say like, now we can treat you just like 192 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 1: we did Jaiku. So every and like and like in 193 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: like a year, it'll be gone. No. I think that 194 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: that's my crazy prediction. And again I don't really believe it, 195 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: but I wanted to predict it. Okay, all right, It's 196 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: funny because I keep looking for segways, and I keep 197 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 1: seeing multiple segways that I could take. I think I'll 198 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 1: stick with the Google thing. I thought you're gonna make 199 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: a prediction about segways. No, not no actual segways, not 200 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 1: the segways. Um. I although people have been predicting it's demise, 201 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: I don't think it's I think it's crazy to predict 202 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: that Google Plus will will just die. I think Google 203 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,959 Speaker 1: Plus will slowly increase its user base over the course 204 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: of and uh some modest gains. Yeah, I think it. Well, 205 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: it's funny because once people got let in, uh and 206 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: they started not using it in droves. I think people 207 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,839 Speaker 1: really haven't given it as much of a shakedown as 208 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 1: they need to. And I think that, especially now that 209 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: Google is redesigning its user interface to promote Google Plus 210 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: more thoroughly and making it it's sort of a hub 211 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: for people's um attention. I think it will gradually. I 212 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna, you know, beat out Facebook next year, 213 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: but I do think that it's going to people are 214 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: gonna go, no, you know what, this is just not 215 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: so bad. I kind of like it. Unless they've been 216 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: adding functionality over the course of a few months, it's 217 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: been open to you. I think it'll grow. It looks 218 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: to me like Google Plus. His journey is very similar 219 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 1: to what I saw on Twitter, and that there was 220 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: a quick rush to kind of check out what this 221 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 1: new toy was, and then a very sharp drop off 222 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,080 Speaker 1: as people thought this isn't what I wanted it to 223 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: be and they leave, and then just slow gains after 224 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:06,800 Speaker 1: that until more and more people are using it. I mean, 225 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: I still have several thousand people following me on Google Plus, 226 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: and that's more than I have on Twitter. Um, and it's, uh, 227 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's still a very good tool to 228 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: engage people now. Granted, a lot of the people who 229 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: follow me end up looking like they are some sort 230 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: of bought or something, or it's just a an account 231 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 1: that's made in order to repost other people's stuff that 232 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: there's nothing original in there. You go and you look 233 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,599 Speaker 1: at the uh the posts that the person made, and 234 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 1: they're all shares of some other person's posts, so they're 235 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: not like anything original. A friend of mine complained about 236 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 1: that just yesterday, literally, and I think Google has been 237 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 1: removing some of those two because my my follower numbers 238 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 1: have been fluctuing. Either that or I'm driving people away, 239 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 1: which is also possible. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna Yeah, 240 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna negate that. Uh here's one of my 241 00:13:57,440 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: others guesses just a while us. Uh So in twelve, 242 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 1: I think it has to do this for this, for 243 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,960 Speaker 1: for it to stay together. But Netflix gets its act together, 244 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: in which may possibly include letting read Hastings go. Might 245 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: include that because read Hastings I mean eleven was had 246 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 1: a series of missteps for Netflix, and Netflix lost a 247 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: lot of the support and uh an admiration in the 248 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: tech community starting in the summer of eleven when it 249 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: announced that it was changing the pricing plans for streaming 250 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: versus DVD plus streaming versus DVD only. And then then, 251 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 1: of course they alienated even more people when there was 252 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: the announcement that Netflix was going to split into two 253 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: different companies where one would just do DVD distribution and 254 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: the other one would do digital uh. And then when 255 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: they went back on that, they got even more derision, 256 00:14:58,040 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: mostly because they're like, well, if you're gonna make a stand, 257 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 1: at least stick to it. You made a choice that 258 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: I hate, but then you went back to the choice 259 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: that I hated slightly less, so I hate you more 260 00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 1: now I like, wait that what? So? Yeah, I think 261 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: Netflix has been battered around a lot. In some cases 262 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: it was you know, you understandable at least on the 263 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: part of the people who are upset, you can understand 264 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: why they're upset. In other cases, I think it might 265 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: be one of those like you just heap more and 266 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: more abuse on as it goes on. But I think 267 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 1: that the company has to do something in twelve to 268 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 1: recapture some of that good faith. That might mean Read 269 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: Hastings has to go. Although personally, you know, I have 270 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: no problem with the guy, so I don't. I don't know, 271 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: But I'm not a shareholder either. I'm not I'm not 272 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: a stakeholder in Netflix, so um, I'm not you know, 273 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: I don't have much to say about it on that sense, 274 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: so we'll see. Yeah. I think they actually made some 275 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: some decent decisions, but made them at a bad time. 276 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 1: They made drastic changes to the service when the public 277 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: was not ready to And Netflix is doing some stuff 278 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: that's similar to things we've seen Apple do in the past, 279 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: in the sense that in order to reach the world 280 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: that Netflix wants us to be in, that being a 281 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: world where digital distribution is the norm. In order to 282 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: reach that world, you have to make some pretty tough 283 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: sacrifices and force people's hands to adopt to the new model, 284 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: because if you don't know, everyone drags their feet and 285 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: progress is very slow. Apple does the same thing when 286 00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 1: Apple sees the opportunity to support one future technology, but 287 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: it means that you have to wait for an older 288 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 1: technology to die out. Apple just stop supporting the old technology, 289 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: and then they're like, well, here's the thing. We're forcing 290 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: you now to adopt this, and you might not like it, 291 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: you might kick and screen, but this, trust us, this 292 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: is better for you. And I think the problem is that, uh, 293 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: Netflix did this and probably didn't do it as smoothly 294 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 1: as Apple did or as convincingly and so uh they 295 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: got a lot of of resistance. Plus Apple is a 296 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: smaller player in its own market for compute huoters anyway, 297 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,959 Speaker 1: and uh, Netflix is the dominant um digital media digital 298 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: DVD really when you get down to it. Okay, next 299 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 1: one for you? Um, okay, I'll go with one of 300 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 1: my my vague ones. Actually this is probably my most 301 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: vague one. Um, Facebook will make some huge acquisition that 302 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: will all go huhh over. Um. I don't think it'll 303 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: be Yahoo, but it's gonna They're gonna acquire somebody and 304 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: you're going, but what what's that gonna do? Yeah, PepsiCo interesting? 305 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: Facebook the choice for the new generation. Can I get 306 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,200 Speaker 1: a Facebook free? If you want a Facebook, you're gonna 307 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: have to pay for it? Facebook on my tab? Um, 308 00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: So anyway, Yeah, I think I think they're gonna make 309 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 1: any I mean, it's not like, uh, you know, if 310 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: Google purchase Twitter, you go yeah, but I mean, you know, 311 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 1: social media and of course you know. But yeah, I 312 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: think Facebook's and it may not be somebody that's bad 313 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,719 Speaker 1: for Facebook, but it's gonna be something that we're gonna go. 314 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 1: But why do you need that? Um, so you know 315 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: it's it's a loose prediction. But you know, I wouldn't 316 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: have said if I had said Google would launch a 317 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: social network in I mean sort of along those lines, 318 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: I mean, like Facebook and Spotify, that was kind of surprising. 319 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: I mean you would imagine, like I mean, it wouldn't 320 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: have been hard to imagine Spotify incorporating the Facebook connect 321 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: as a way to connect to Spotify in the United States, 322 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,639 Speaker 1: but to make it the way is kind of well, 323 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 1: that was unusual. Let's say, if if Facebook gobbled up Twitter, 324 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: that would be one thing. But I'm talking like Facebook 325 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: gobbles up Xerox? What why? Why on? Or how aboutould 326 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: you do that Facebook gobbles up like Hulu or something 327 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 1: something like that? Something unusual? It doesn't quite make sense, 328 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: all right? How about? Um, here's this one's kind of 329 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,239 Speaker 1: a gimme in a way. This is the year is 330 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: the year at E three we will see the next 331 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 1: generation consoles from Microsoft and Sonya. So we'll see the 332 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: predicted that two years ago and got my rear end 333 00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,200 Speaker 1: handed to me on a platter. Yeah, two years running. Actually, 334 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 1: because I think you I think you've predicted in two 335 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: thousand nine and in two thousand ten. I think two 336 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: thousand twelve is the year. Well, we've heard some rumors already. 337 00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: We've heard rumors that the successor to the three sixty 338 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 1: will have connect like functionality built directly into the console, 339 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,199 Speaker 1: and that it will be even more advanced to be 340 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: able to do things like to tell what mood you 341 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: are in, or even be able to read your lips. Yeah, 342 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 1: so there's that rumor. And I've also read rumors that 343 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 1: Sony's next UM console, the PlayStation four or whatever it 344 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: might be called, will also contain some sort of connect 345 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 1: functionality built into it. So there's a lot of a 346 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 1: lot of money being put towards this whole connect style 347 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 1: of gaming and interaction UH and and hopefully that will 348 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 1: mean that we're going to see even more UH innovative 349 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: games and gameplay modes. I think a lot of the 350 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 1: games that we've been seeing are just scratching the surface 351 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: because people are still figuring out how to best use 352 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: this interface, how to best leverage it. And that's that's 353 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 1: true whenever any new unit user interface comes out. You know, 354 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: the first few things that come out are kind of interesting, 355 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 1: but they're almost more like toys than anything really useful. 356 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 1: And then as the technology mature, as we start seeing 357 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: assuming that people adopted, we start seeing more compelling products. 358 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think at E three we're going to 359 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: see at least a preview of the next Microsoft console 360 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: and the next Sony console. It may may not come 361 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: out in twelve, but we'll at least get our first preview. Okay, 362 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:46,280 Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, I have a several game uh predictions. Um, 363 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 1: I think the one that's closest to that, sticking with 364 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: my segway idea, would be the we u Um, which 365 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 1: is supposed to come out. Um, I think it's going 366 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: to be a minor hit. I don't think. I think 367 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 1: I think it will sell. The three DS is actually 368 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 1: their sales have been increasing recently, so that's started to 369 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 1: climb out of a slump. So maybe Nintendo is like 370 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,679 Speaker 1: on the upswing of its dip. Yeah, because I'd say 371 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,399 Speaker 1: in twenty eleven it did kind of start to falter 372 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:16,199 Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, but but once Um Games for 373 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: the three D s Storty coming out, like the Mario 374 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 1: Games Story coming out for the three DS, the sales 375 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: started to improve. So again Nintendo banking on that intellectual 376 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 1: property that has served them so well in the past. 377 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe that We You would also have an 378 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,840 Speaker 1: initial success, especially if they're able to target not just 379 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: the casual gamers, but the loyal like hard more hardcore gamers, 380 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 1: not like hardcore in the sense of I need to 381 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: you know, there has to be body limbs flying all 382 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,239 Speaker 1: over the screen for me to buy a game, but 383 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: that you know, they're the dedicated gamers, the people who 384 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 1: who will spend a lot of time and money that 385 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,239 Speaker 1: will go out, they'll buy the latest games as they 386 00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: come out. Yeah, I think I think the The We 387 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: You will be a hit among a lot of those people. 388 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: But I don't think it's gonna catch on as quickly 389 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: as The We itself did when it was released. I 390 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: don't think there's gonna be the same line. I think 391 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: it's gonna be sort of a similar at adoption rate 392 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 1: as the three D S where people go, yeah, okay, 393 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,639 Speaker 1: but it's we don't really have to have that, And 394 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 1: it's rumored to be more expensive than We was when 395 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 1: it launched. So that may also especially if if again, 396 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 1: if that economic uncertainty also means that there's a downturn 397 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 1: in general, then people may be more careful with their 398 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,120 Speaker 1: money and there may be less consumer spending. And that's 399 00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:31,880 Speaker 1: why I'm saying a lot of the things I'm predicting 400 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 1: hinge on the economy because in some cases, companies may say, 401 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: you know what, We're gonna hold off introducing this product 402 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: line until and see if maybe the economic outlook is 403 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 1: better than that. That sometimes happens. Um. Okay, So sticking 404 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:54,879 Speaker 1: with Nintendo, here's another crazy prediction, this one. I I 405 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: go back and forth on this one. Okay, So Nintendo 406 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 1: begins to develop a smartphone. Wow. So the idea that 407 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 1: Nintendo decides to get into this, uh, take the next 408 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: plunge and go into the smartphone realm. Either they partner 409 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 1: with someone where a very specific partner is going to 410 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 1: have access to some of Nintendo's intellectual properties, or they 411 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,879 Speaker 1: specifically go into the business of developing a smartphone that 412 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,880 Speaker 1: is branded with the Nintendo where you can buy Nintendo 413 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: games through the phone's ecosystem, and that it is essentially 414 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: the next step in their handheld gaming market, because that's 415 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 1: where handheld gaming is right now, is in the smartphone market. 416 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,919 Speaker 1: And if you don't if you don't join that, then 417 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: you might as well just get out of that industry 418 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 1: the handheld gaming units are. It's harder and harder to 419 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,680 Speaker 1: sell one of those that doesn't have a phone in it. Okay, well, 420 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: that's actually, uh in contrast with what you were saying 421 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,360 Speaker 1: a moment ago, and but in more in line with that, 422 00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: I had predicted that Nintendo is going to need to 423 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 1: reduce the price that the three D s again. And 424 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: it might. It might even. I mean, the sales that 425 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: kind of bounced up might very well be like end 426 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,199 Speaker 1: of the year Christmas present kind of thing. Right, So 427 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 1: those sales figures I mean to say, not sales like 428 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 1: sales prices, but sales figures. Um, it may not be 429 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: that the three DS gets widespread adoption like the other 430 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 1: Nintendo handheld systems until we see at another price drop. 431 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,120 Speaker 1: It was dramatic to see a price drop happened within 432 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: the first half year of the three ys being on 433 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: the shelves. I have another one of those coming up 434 00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: that's very similar to that. Okay, well, I have one 435 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 1: that this is a question really not so much a prediction, 436 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: because there's actually a rumor out right now as we 437 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: record this, which is again early December. There's a rumor 438 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: and it's been going around for a while, but I've 439 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 1: just seen it get traction recently that the iPad three 440 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,919 Speaker 1: or the successor to the iPad two, whatever it might 441 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 1: be called, if it's had two plus or whatever two 442 00:24:55,960 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: s that it will have a three D screen so 443 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: that you'll be able to look at stuff in three D. 444 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 1: That is the rumor. Here's my prediction. I don't think 445 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,600 Speaker 1: it's gonna happen. And here's here's my reasoning why I 446 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna happen. Uh, it's it's actually got 447 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: multiple levels to it. One is that the three D thing, 448 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: it's an experience that doesn't it's not universal, okay, Like 449 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,120 Speaker 1: there are people who have vision issues or whatever who 450 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 1: cannot see the three D images. Uh, it's very easy 451 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,840 Speaker 1: to get it wrong so that you might you know, 452 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 1: you if you have to design a screen for someone 453 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: and you have to make it adjustable, because if you 454 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 1: don't make it adjustable, if you make it try and 455 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,080 Speaker 1: make it one size fits all, they're gonna be a 456 00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: lot of people where it's not going to be the 457 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 1: best effects because our eyes are space differently, you know, 458 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: Like my eyes are not as far apart as someone 459 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 1: else's eyes, and someone else's eyes might be um closer 460 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,679 Speaker 1: together than my eyes are, and that affects how we 461 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,280 Speaker 1: would see a screen that has three D projection in 462 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,679 Speaker 1: it um. So because of that, Apple would have to 463 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 1: design some sort of of ability to like the three ds, 464 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,120 Speaker 1: to adjust the level of three D, which you could 465 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,879 Speaker 1: get it just right without giving yourself a migraine trying 466 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 1: to stare at this thing. But ultimately, the number one 467 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 1: thing that I think suggests that a three D screen 468 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: is not a good idea for an iPad is the interface. 469 00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:24,159 Speaker 1: The interface is a touch screen interface. Why would you 470 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 1: create a that's a two dimensional interface? Right, Yeah, that's true. 471 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 1: Why would you have a two dimensional interface to interact 472 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 1: with a three dimensional screen? Yeah, you would need like 473 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 1: an iPad cube. Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Even 474 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: if you were to include the camera so that the 475 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,800 Speaker 1: camera sees you, you would have to figure out how 476 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: to teach the processor to understand depth, and you would 477 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: have to learn the depth. So like, if I have 478 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: a three dimensional virtual environment, then that means I can 479 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 1: I can stack data in lots of different ways. But 480 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 1: if my interface is still a touch screen, I can 481 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,719 Speaker 1: effectively only put it horizontally in vertically. I can't go 482 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: deep because there's no way to select that data. I 483 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,120 Speaker 1: always se like something that's in the background versus the foreground. 484 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,280 Speaker 1: In that case, UM, I think it's just too clunky. 485 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: It doesn't make sense. The only way it would make 486 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 1: sense is if you were just doing it for the 487 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: effect of watching media. So if you wanted to watch 488 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,160 Speaker 1: a three D movie on your iPad, I think that 489 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: that doesn't make sense financially to put that kind of 490 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 1: uh investment in for something that's so limited and functionality. 491 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,880 Speaker 1: So it may very well turn out that I'm wrong, 492 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 1: and maybe an Apple, of course is very good at 493 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,240 Speaker 1: at designing things that that work in ways I did 494 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: not anticipate. I mean, the iPad is the perfect example 495 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,199 Speaker 1: of that. But based upon what I know about three 496 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: D tech, and especially glasses free three D tech, and 497 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,320 Speaker 1: based upon the interface that the iPad uses, I just 498 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 1: don't see it being a thing. So I'm gonna say 499 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 1: that the iPad three or two S or whatever it's 500 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 1: going to be called will not have a glasses free 501 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 1: three D screen included. Yeah. Now, I have seen additional 502 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 1: rumors that the screen will have a higher resolution display. 503 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 1: It's sort of a gimme, I think, um people have 504 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 1: been wanting that since the first iPad. As soon as 505 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 1: I Pad iPhone four came out with the retina display, 506 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,760 Speaker 1: people were hoping that the iPad two would support the 507 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 1: same thing. Now, of course it did not, but now 508 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: there are hopes that the next generation iPad will have 509 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,640 Speaker 1: a retina display. Now, over the past couple of years, 510 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: Jonavan has made a couple of predictions that you know 511 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 1: where he was really going out on a limb and 512 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: and uh turn out, you know, remember the iPad, the 513 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 1: big failure. It was going to be uh so, so anyway, 514 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: so anyway, I decided to go ahead and and and 515 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 1: do one of my own where this this I could 516 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 1: very easily get t boned on this one. There have 517 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: been rumors that Apple is coming out with televisions, and 518 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: I think I do think that's eventually going to happen. 519 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 1: I think they're moving into compete with people like Sony 520 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 1: and Samsung and LG. But I don't think you're gonna 521 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 1: see the first ones come out in Okay, I disagree. Yeah, 522 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 1: he's going to come out with its first Apple TV 523 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 1: in twelve. Yeah, a real Apple TV, an Apple TV, 524 00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: which not exists. But it's not an actual television with 525 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: Apple functionality built into it, not a set top box, 526 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: It's built into the television unit itself. So I say 527 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 1: that comes out. That was one of my predictions. Awesome. 528 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: So uh, we very rarely do that, since we work 529 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 1: independently on I don't necessarily feel strongly about it. Again, 530 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 1: but I'm willing. I'm I'm willing to put my neck 531 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 1: out on that one. So uh yeah, one of us 532 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,160 Speaker 1: will be right, one of us will be wrong, which 533 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 1: means that one of us will get a blender and 534 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 1: the other one will get a puppy. All right? Then? Yeah, um, 535 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: so was that was that your prediction there? Or well, 536 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 1: how many more do you have left? U don't I 537 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 1: have a handful. I've got a few as well, so 538 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 1: we can we can keep going back and forth. Sort 539 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,360 Speaker 1: of a related thing. Um, I I predict that new 540 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 1: Google TV products will be coming out and no one 541 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: will care. Yeah, I I have no disagreement there. I 542 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: think Google TV. I think it launched too early. It 543 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: launched too early with not enough features, and so it 544 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 1: got a very kind of lackluster response and it's going 545 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 1: to be really difficult to fight that off. Even if 546 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: Google comes out with a truly compelling product to fight 547 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: off the first impression people had that Google Television was 548 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: kind of a well, this isn't what I was expecting. 549 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 1: It doesn't feel like it's what I was promised. I 550 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: think even if Google comes out with the perfect product now, 551 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 1: it would be an uphill battle because people already have 552 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 1: that impression that's just not what they want. And I 553 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: think I think these products also are sort of like DVRs. 554 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: I mean, people never really rushed out to buy themselves 555 00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,440 Speaker 1: a TVO or other stuff, but I mean people have 556 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 1: been adopting them, but it's sort of that under their radar. 557 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: It's definitely like the perfect example of the long tail. 558 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 1: You know, it's really a long tail product where you'd 559 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 1: have a few early adopters and their word of mouth 560 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 1: was enough to perpetuate sales, but the sales weren't huge 561 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 1: all in a and they weren't front loaded. They were 562 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 1: just kind of spread out. Um, all right, well here's 563 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: one for me. At least one of the big daily 564 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 1: deal sites will go under at least one. So these 565 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 1: are things like living social group on scout Bob. Google 566 00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: has its own version Google deals, you know, so we're 567 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: gonna I think at least one of those is gonna 568 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 1: collapse because there's so the markets flooded, there's so many 569 00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 1: of them that I don't think it can sustain all 570 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: of them together. Okay, UM, I have one. Apple will 571 00:31:56,160 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 1: not announce NFC for an iPhone. We won't have near 572 00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 1: field communications. I think I think it's probable that Google 573 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: wallet will slowly grow sort of the same thing. Is 574 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:08,960 Speaker 1: that what we were just talking about. I just don't 575 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: think people care right now here in the United States 576 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 1: about near field communication, and I don't think the iPhone. 577 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 1: I don't think Apple is going to rush out to 578 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: UH to meet Google on that field of battle. Yet. 579 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,440 Speaker 1: I think part of it is that more and more 580 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 1: UH emphasis in the tech world anyway, not necessarily on 581 00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 1: the individual consumer, but in the tech world is on 582 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: UH distribution centers like Amazon. So it's going further away 583 00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 1: from the point of sale retail shops in the first place. 584 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,320 Speaker 1: So making that point of sale thing easier doesn't really 585 00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 1: a lot of people that there's no validity to that 586 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 1: because that's not their shopping experience, or at least in 587 00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 1: the tech world, that's how it seems now like again 588 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 1: from the average consumer who is going out and shopping 589 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: for Christmas presents, Maybe that's not the case. Maybe there 590 00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,600 Speaker 1: are the person who hits those brick and border stores 591 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 1: over and over again, in which case they might really 592 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 1: welcome near field community patients solutions. How about Microsoft Windows 593 00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:09,720 Speaker 1: tablets will debut to modest results, like they're not gonna 594 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 1: They're not gonna take a big chunk out of the 595 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: tablet market. I think I think I the the iPad 596 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 1: will still be firmly in the lead. I think Android 597 00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 1: will be in second and Windows might take third. They 598 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,600 Speaker 1: might actually overtake all those touch pads that were sold 599 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:35,280 Speaker 1: in late yea. Um. Actually I had written this down 600 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: on the Predictions episode and I didn't move it over 601 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: to my predictions list for I think HP is going 602 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,520 Speaker 1: to do something useful with web os. I think it 603 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,080 Speaker 1: may actually even hang onto it. So you think they're 604 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:52,360 Speaker 1: reversing what uh Leo said back in uh the former 605 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: CEO of HP said back in the summer of eleven, 606 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,920 Speaker 1: where HP was supposedly going to get out of the 607 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: consumer computer business as well as halt developing webOS. And 608 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 1: now both of those statements seem to be Um, well, 609 00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,560 Speaker 1: it seemed to be in question. Yeah, now that the 610 00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: announcement may come by the end of but I think 611 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:17,759 Speaker 1: I think they're going to real Well, a lot of 612 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 1: people said what are you doing? Why are you doing that? Um? 613 00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,359 Speaker 1: And I do think although the tablets weren't selling before 614 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,759 Speaker 1: the discounts, um, I think the price had more to 615 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 1: do that with that than the webOS part. Okay, So 616 00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 1: I think is going to be the swan song for 617 00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,880 Speaker 1: the compact disc mhm. I think that we're going to 618 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:45,280 Speaker 1: see lots of companies cut way back on manufacturing discs 619 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:49,239 Speaker 1: and start to rely more on digital distribution as their 620 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 1: primary means of getting music out to customers for DVDs 621 00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,680 Speaker 1: or just CDs. CDs. I think DVD still have a 622 00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: little way to go, mostly because, um, it's a lot 623 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 1: It's still easier for someone to download a CD than 624 00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,000 Speaker 1: it is for them to You can stream movies pretty easily. 625 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 1: Downloading a film the requires that you have more space 626 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 1: and a faster connection to do it in a way 627 00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 1: that has a good experience for the consumers. So I 628 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,440 Speaker 1: think I think we're not quite there yet. I mean, 629 00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:20,319 Speaker 1: most most of our listeners are probably there, like most 630 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:22,479 Speaker 1: of our listeners are probably in the group of people 631 00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,760 Speaker 1: who have the kind of connections and and equipment where 632 00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,480 Speaker 1: downloading a film wouldn't be a huge deal. But for 633 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:33,640 Speaker 1: the vast majority of people out there, the big audience 634 00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: that you have to aim for because that's where your 635 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,200 Speaker 1: money is going to be. I don't think they're there yet, 636 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,319 Speaker 1: but they are there as far as CD sales go, 637 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:43,640 Speaker 1: So I think CDs aren't going to disappear, but I 638 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 1: think they're going to be more rare, and that you'll 639 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 1: more likely have to buy things through some sort of 640 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 1: digital distribution, either iTunes or Amazon or directly from whatever 641 00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,800 Speaker 1: the music label is, or even the band in some cases, 642 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,279 Speaker 1: because we may we may. This may be the getting 643 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 1: of the end for the major labels as we recognize 644 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,840 Speaker 1: them now. They'll still, I think, be around. I just 645 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 1: don't think that they'll be as big a power player 646 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:18,640 Speaker 1: as they were in the decades past. Um. Since this 647 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,040 Speaker 1: is I don't really have a good segue for this one, 648 00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 1: so I'll throw out my left field thing. I think 649 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 1: that Canonical, the manufacturers of uh several different flavors of 650 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:34,640 Speaker 1: lenox um, will ditch Unity as the main interface for 651 00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:38,760 Speaker 1: a Buntu because it has gone over like the biggest 652 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,279 Speaker 1: lead balloon of all lead balloons. Yeah, uh yeah, there's 653 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: not a lot of love for it. I think they 654 00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,080 Speaker 1: may try to refurbish it, but I think they may 655 00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 1: go back to gnome as the main gnome and clature 656 00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 1: for for it. Um. Of course, it's easy. It's easy 657 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,239 Speaker 1: enough to to choose it. And that's something that I 658 00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 1: read recently in a in a critique of the new interface. Um. 659 00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,720 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's not like anybody has to stick 660 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,520 Speaker 1: with Unity. You can go with any number of other 661 00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 1: interfaces pretty easily. Um. But yeah, there's there's been so 662 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 1: much uh complaint about it. I think that they're gonna 663 00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:18,680 Speaker 1: go with something else or or come, you know, maybe 664 00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 1: completely overhaul. But I'm gonna say for the official prediction 665 00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 1: that they're gonna ditch it. Um. So what's next? I 666 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,960 Speaker 1: only have one left out of my official predictions unless 667 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,799 Speaker 1: I think of some while we're talking, um, and this one. Uh, 668 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,239 Speaker 1: it's it's it's such a lame one. I don't know 669 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,719 Speaker 1: why it chose this as the last one. Uh. But 670 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:42,400 Speaker 1: you know, we've got another election year coming up. I 671 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,239 Speaker 1: think that tech is going to play the biggest role 672 00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:49,600 Speaker 1: ever in election history this year I want to give 673 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:51,799 Speaker 1: I know, that's what I said. It was lame. I 674 00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,439 Speaker 1: was like, you know, the more I wrote this down, 675 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,080 Speaker 1: the more I'm like, and water is wet, so it 676 00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 1: already has. So you know what, I'm not gonna I'm 677 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 1: not gonna really even next year, I'm not going to 678 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,920 Speaker 1: count that. I mean, normally I would win at least 679 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 1: a donkey or an elephant out of that one. But 680 00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 1: I think, uh, I think that one is such a 681 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,520 Speaker 1: GIMMI that you know, people who people who would be 682 00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,399 Speaker 1: visiting our planet for the first time would be able 683 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,240 Speaker 1: to tell you that within five minutes of note looking around. 684 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:22,759 Speaker 1: So yeah, okay, I have well I have several, but 685 00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,759 Speaker 1: a couple of them I'm just gonna ditch. Um. I 686 00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,560 Speaker 1: have four left. I think that um that I want 687 00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,520 Speaker 1: to keep going with. One is that now, keeping in 688 00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,400 Speaker 1: mind this, it's been out for a short time. So 689 00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,120 Speaker 1: even though it released in I'm gonna say that in 690 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 1: the kindle fire will be a hit. I think it's 691 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,239 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna do really well over the next year. 692 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,840 Speaker 1: So you're you're calling it like a true success, Like 693 00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 1: a true success, I think it might be the first. Um, 694 00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:51,680 Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think it might be the 695 00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:56,640 Speaker 1: first non iPad to truly succeed in the market. I mean, 696 00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,120 Speaker 1: we've got lots of other non iPad tablets out there, 697 00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:03,280 Speaker 1: but I don't think any of them have been hailed 698 00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:11,520 Speaker 1: as a true success. And HPS touchpad did. Okay, I 699 00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,879 Speaker 1: don't count. You don't count that that's a fluke because 700 00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:17,200 Speaker 1: of the pricing. That doesn't mean people would have bought 701 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: anything and a hundred dollars if it were in a 702 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:21,239 Speaker 1: tablet for probably like you know, if it was a 703 00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:24,560 Speaker 1: Window seven tablet for a hundred bucks, that probably would 704 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,360 Speaker 1: have gone out and rushed out and bought those. Um. 705 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,200 Speaker 1: But yeah, I think that the the the Kindle Fire 706 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,320 Speaker 1: has the potential to be the the number two tablet. 707 00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:39,360 Speaker 1: Like if you're talking about specific models, uh, because again, 708 00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,359 Speaker 1: the Android tablet space is so diverse that it's hard 709 00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:46,720 Speaker 1: for any one kind of tablet to get true success 710 00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 1: in that field because there's just so many different ones, 711 00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,759 Speaker 1: and you know, it requires that the consumer be informed 712 00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,399 Speaker 1: about his or her choice. You know, when you go 713 00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,400 Speaker 1: if you just know what a tablet is and you 714 00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,600 Speaker 1: know what Android is, but you don't know anything Beyond that, 715 00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,160 Speaker 1: going into a store and shopping for Android tablets is 716 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,600 Speaker 1: maddening because there's so many different kinds and you don't 717 00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:10,200 Speaker 1: necessarily know which ones are really gonna be good versus um, 718 00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: some that are just going to be slow and unresponsive 719 00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:16,680 Speaker 1: and and maybe running Android one point six, you know, 720 00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 1: so um And related to that, I say that, and 721 00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,960 Speaker 1: there's been speculation that the Kindle fire will cause Apple 722 00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:28,560 Speaker 1: to lower prices at the iPad. I say, no, I 723 00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:30,040 Speaker 1: don't think. I don't think they're gonna do it now. 724 00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:36,080 Speaker 1: Apple is has traditionally been sort of that premium kind 725 00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:40,560 Speaker 1: of uh product, especially since Steve Jobs came back. Yeah, 726 00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,080 Speaker 1: I mean there's aimed for that niche. Yeah, that was 727 00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:46,200 Speaker 1: that was what. That's kind of their corporate identity. They're 728 00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:50,160 Speaker 1: not known for marking down prices in the face of competition. 729 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,879 Speaker 1: They're they're known for just pouring even more effort into 730 00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,840 Speaker 1: innovation and marketing and convincing people that whatever it is 731 00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,799 Speaker 1: they're coming out with is what you have to have. 732 00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,439 Speaker 1: I can't you know, I've heard people talk about how 733 00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:07,959 Speaker 1: the market forces like netbooks were supposed to bring down 734 00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:10,759 Speaker 1: Mac prices. You know, that was the big thing they 735 00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,399 Speaker 1: didn't really do that either. Now, granted, you could also 736 00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,480 Speaker 1: say that, well, Apple keeps coming out with more advanced 737 00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,200 Speaker 1: hardware and then marketing it for the same price as 738 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:23,239 Speaker 1: the previous generation hardware, so in a way, prices are 739 00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:31,799 Speaker 1: kind of falling sort of, but not in the traditional sense. Yeah. Yeah, um, 740 00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,240 Speaker 1: And then let's see I said that Windows will release 741 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:41,400 Speaker 1: two sort of lackluster adoption. Um, and that's twofold. I 742 00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,680 Speaker 1: think it suffers from the same problem that Lion does 743 00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,759 Speaker 1: for for the macOS, and that it's got a very 744 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,920 Speaker 1: different interface. And yes, before you write me, I know 745 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,759 Speaker 1: you can change its metro. Yeah, it's going to the 746 00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,520 Speaker 1: metro interface. For those of you who don't know, is 747 00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,239 Speaker 1: the interface for the Windows eight porta bowl devices and 748 00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,040 Speaker 1: Windows seven portable stuff that's out there now you see 749 00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,600 Speaker 1: on there if you've seen commercials with a little colorful 750 00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,960 Speaker 1: boxes on the phones, that's what the Windows eight you 751 00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,120 Speaker 1: user interface is supposed to look like for computers, Yeah, 752 00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,400 Speaker 1: which which would work be great if you have a 753 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,399 Speaker 1: touch screen monitor, but if you don't have a touch 754 00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,799 Speaker 1: screen monitor. There's some people who suggest that that particular 755 00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:27,240 Speaker 1: way of organizing data is not really that intuitive because 756 00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,680 Speaker 1: you can't navigate through it as as easily. That's one 757 00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,880 Speaker 1: of the big things that we've talked about with that. 758 00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,279 Speaker 1: We're plan on doing a user interface podcast at some point. 759 00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,480 Speaker 1: We're talk about the design of a user interface and 760 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,480 Speaker 1: what goes into that, because there's so much more beyond 761 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:47,040 Speaker 1: just technical uh sex. But you know, we've seen like 762 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,680 Speaker 1: kids pick up an iPad and that just they learn 763 00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:55,359 Speaker 1: how to navigate that iPad really quickly. You know. It's 764 00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,640 Speaker 1: it's one of those things that's just very intuitive. Yeah, 765 00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:01,160 Speaker 1: So kids intuitively can figure out how to navigate these things. 766 00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:06,280 Speaker 1: So there is a, uh, there is a an urge 767 00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,080 Speaker 1: to move toward that because everyone's like, well, this, this 768 00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,840 Speaker 1: is there's something here. It's just it's it's almost magical, 769 00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,480 Speaker 1: like to to use an Apple type phrase. But when 770 00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,080 Speaker 1: you get it to a desktop modality where there's no 771 00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,160 Speaker 1: there's not necessarily a touch screen part of the interface, 772 00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,160 Speaker 1: it's not nearly as intuitive because you're navigating you're not 773 00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:27,600 Speaker 1: navigating it the same way you would if you were, 774 00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,120 Speaker 1: say a touch screen tablet. Yeah, and and and here's 775 00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,520 Speaker 1: the thing. I mean, yes, you can you can operate 776 00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:36,320 Speaker 1: Windows eight in that mode or in a more traditional 777 00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:40,560 Speaker 1: mode but they've been marketing it at using the the 778 00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,160 Speaker 1: Metro stuff on that initial thing. Look what you can 779 00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,880 Speaker 1: do here. Um. I think if they continue marketing Metro 780 00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,040 Speaker 1: as the primary interface, people are going to be a 781 00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,880 Speaker 1: little put off by that and they suffer from another problem. 782 00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:56,440 Speaker 1: Windows seven it's really good, um, and people have been 783 00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,719 Speaker 1: adopting it now. It's it's you know, surpassed Vista in 784 00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,879 Speaker 1: a option at this point. UM. And I think now 785 00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,800 Speaker 1: that XP is going out, I think people are just 786 00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,680 Speaker 1: gonna go with Windows seven unless you know, Microsoft completely 787 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:09,920 Speaker 1: makes it unavailable. This is kind of crazy because when 788 00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,719 Speaker 1: you think about think about how long XP stuck around, Yeah, 789 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:17,760 Speaker 1: ten years, ten years of XP and then because it works, 790 00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,360 Speaker 1: and then what happened was people did not like Vista, 791 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,560 Speaker 1: or enough people did not like Vista for it to 792 00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:27,160 Speaker 1: be a problem, and uh, and then Windows seven came 793 00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,919 Speaker 1: around it seemed to be a big improvement. It does 794 00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,839 Speaker 1: seem weird to go from Windows seven to Windows eight 795 00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,680 Speaker 1: so relatively quickly when you look at how long there 796 00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:42,200 Speaker 1: was a a pause from Windows XP to Windows Vista. 797 00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,680 Speaker 1: And yes there were other versions of Windows that came 798 00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,680 Speaker 1: out between those, but we're talking about mass adoption here. Yeah, 799 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:50,920 Speaker 1: so I think and mass adoption and and actual like 800 00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:54,040 Speaker 1: personal computers as opposed to web servers and things like that. 801 00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:55,680 Speaker 1: So I just don't think it's going to take off. 802 00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:58,759 Speaker 1: And my my last one, I'm gonna go with my 803 00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:02,640 Speaker 1: gimme for the last one. Blizzard will release Diablo three 804 00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:09,120 Speaker 1: and it will become a massive hit. Wow, I gotta 805 00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,279 Speaker 1: get it. I gotta get a demon or something out 806 00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:16,120 Speaker 1: of that. I would predict that there will be uh 807 00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:22,680 Speaker 1: a dramatic increase in people complaining about right index finger pain. 808 00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:28,000 Speaker 1: That's exactly possible directly as a result of blizzards of 809 00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:32,719 Speaker 1: blizzards Diablo three releasing. It's going to be a hit. Yeah. 810 00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:34,959 Speaker 1: I didn't make any other predictions about any other game 811 00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,000 Speaker 1: titles that I think might come out and next year 812 00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,040 Speaker 1: because that that's what Grand Theft All five comes out. 813 00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,120 Speaker 1: That'll be excited to see. I think that will be 814 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:46,520 Speaker 1: a big success. That's also another gimming people have been 815 00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,320 Speaker 1: eager for that. But U okay, so here's my final 816 00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,920 Speaker 1: final prediction. So you came up with it. Last prediction 817 00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,680 Speaker 1: has nothing to do with tech. I'm done. I predict 818 00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,480 Speaker 1: this time next year we will be making a prediction 819 00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:03,439 Speaker 1: show and we will ignore the fact that the Mayan 820 00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,520 Speaker 1: calendar is coming at an end, and that we will 821 00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:10,399 Speaker 1: just assume that the world will continue going on and 822 00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,839 Speaker 1: that we will have to predict stuff to happen. All right, 823 00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,759 Speaker 1: So um yeah for those of you who were you know, 824 00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,640 Speaker 1: playing on just living it up in twelve because it 825 00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:26,520 Speaker 1: was gonna be the final year. Ever, I don't think so. 826 00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:30,479 Speaker 1: So alright, alright, well let's wrap this up that those 827 00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:34,400 Speaker 1: are our predictions for twenty twelve in the world of technology. 828 00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:36,480 Speaker 1: If you guys have any of your own predictions you 829 00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,840 Speaker 1: would like to share, or you have any other questions 830 00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:40,799 Speaker 1: or suggestions for topics you would like us to cover 831 00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,560 Speaker 1: in future episodes, let us know. So there's an email 832 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,680 Speaker 1: that addresses tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com, 833 00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,720 Speaker 1: or drop us a line on Facebook or Twitter. Are handled. 834 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,000 Speaker 1: There is tech stuff hs W and Chris and I 835 00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:59,880 Speaker 1: will talk to you again in the future. Be shorted. 836 00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,720 Speaker 1: Check out our new video podcast, Stuff from the Future. 837 00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,359 Speaker 1: Join How Stuff Work staff as we explore the most 838 00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:10,240 Speaker 1: promising and perplexing possibilities of tomorrow. The House Stuff Works 839 00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:18,279 Speaker 1: iPhone app has arrived. Download it today on iTunes. Brought 840 00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:21,520 Speaker 1: to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, 841 00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:22,080 Speaker 1: Are you