Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. So this is meet Joey Paid Joe Pisapia.
Speaker 1: Week three is just about concluded. A few games left
Speaker 1: here a Monday night. You can catch us by PM
Speaker 1: Eastern every single Monday live on the YouTube channel breaking
Speaker 1: those games down on Monday and Thursday night myself at
Speaker 1: Scott Bogman. But this year this is about looking ahead.
Speaker 1: And man, oh man, I'm depressed. It was a bad
Speaker 1: week for me. I is terrible this week. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take all the l's here because I thought there was
Speaker 1: some really good things here. I was very happy about
Speaker 1: outside the Chiefs. That's like the only thing that went
Speaker 1: right for me. God bless you Taylor Swift for making
Speaker 1: sure that you had Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes motivated.
Speaker 1: Hopefully these two gentlemen had better weeks than I do.
Speaker 1: We could take it through a good week four. As
Speaker 1: we continue on, Pat fitz Morris joins us, Sam Hoppin
Speaker 1: joins is. Of course you could check out all our
Speaker 1: amazing content at Betting Pros. Sammy Boy repping the Green
Speaker 1: Bay Packers gear. Feeling pretty good about that Jordan Love Homecoming.
Speaker 1: So I think you were in a good spot here
Speaker 1: to win this division because it ain't gonna be the
Speaker 1: bet and it certainly doesn't feel like the Vikings can
Speaker 1: win anything Zam.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we were talking about this pre show.
Speaker 3: I do think the Vikings still do have a chance
Speaker 3: because they haven't played anyone in the division yet. They
Speaker 3: have some opportunities to make up some ground with those games,
Speaker 3: and they've just gotten terribly unlucky. I'll talk about it
Speaker 3: a little bit later, but with the turnovers, it's just
Speaker 3: been bad and you would expect some of that to
Speaker 3: regress a little bit in season, even though everyone's talking
Speaker 3: about how well they did on one side in one
Speaker 3: score games last year versus this year. So certainly looking
Speaker 3: good for our Green Bay Packers though.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that under came in on that Charger game with
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. One under that did not come in
Speaker 1: was the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Fits.
Speaker 1: I mean, they scored enough points here for several games
Speaker 1: like you're gonna took the Jets game, combined it with
Speaker 1: another game and still probably not caught up to the
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. I can't imagine going forward. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to be a real Dolle year. This offense could
Speaker 1: continue to just take off and be something very special.
Speaker 1: But that was a show of shows, bad showing for
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos. But I think the big takeaway is
Speaker 1: Miami's offense without Jaalen Waddle even was stunningly good yesterday
Speaker 1: fits historically.
Speaker 4: So it was Joe, And credit to you. I think
Speaker 4: you were on the Dolphins last week on this show.
Speaker 4: I believe you like them, and I just I wasn't
Speaker 4: really interested in that game at all, and I just
Speaker 4: like this. This Broncos defense was actually good last year.
Speaker 5: Or like a bump the march at least.
Speaker 4: So it's hard to understand what exactly has happened here.
Speaker 4: But it's going to be a test of the you know,
Speaker 4: mediocre offense versus the mediocre defense when the Bears and
Speaker 4: Broncos get together this week, and mediocre is really being
Speaker 4: kind quite frankly, I mean, this is yeah, So it
Speaker 4: will be interesting to see what gives in that game.
Speaker 1: The Denver Broncos the first team in NFL history to
Speaker 1: give up three hundred and fifty yards in the air
Speaker 1: and on the ground. Congratulations Bronco. I mean, somebody's got
Speaker 1: to get fired today for something. I don't know who
Speaker 1: it is, but you know this is usually when heads roll.
Speaker 1: But look, before we get going, don't forget everybody. We've
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Speaker 1: You know if you're the winner of the big James
Speaker 1: Cook Jersey. Let's move on here to Thursday night football.
Speaker 1: Your Green Bay Packers gentlemen are going to host the
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. Speaking of Indivision matchups, this one is real spicy.
Speaker 1: You've got the Green Bay Packers two point home underdogs.
Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is the number at Sugarhouse
Speaker 1: right now. Forty four and a half. You can get
Speaker 1: that over on Caesars. And if you like the Packers
Speaker 1: to win at home in that dog situation, on the
Speaker 1: money line right now, FanDuel's got the best number plus
Speaker 1: one oh six. So let's take us through here. In
Speaker 1: your opinion, Fits, is this line correct number one and
Speaker 1: number two? Do you see any early value?
Speaker 4: I do think the line is correct, Joe. And this
Speaker 4: does feel like a battle for NFC North supremacy. We
Speaker 4: know the Bears aren't going to be battling for anything,
Speaker 4: and the Vikings, Yeah, maybe they've had some bad luck,
Speaker 4: but that defense is pretty legitimately terrible.
Speaker 5: So this is also a Packers.
Speaker 4: Revenge game after the Lions knocked them out of the
Speaker 4: playoffs in the final game of the twenty twenty two
Speaker 4: regular season. So Jared Goff has made four starts against
Speaker 4: the Packers since joining the Lions. Lost his first one,
Speaker 4: has won the last three. I don't know that I
Speaker 4: like either side here, Joe, but I sort of like
Speaker 4: the under Both Lions Packers games played under last season,
Speaker 4: and the Packers continue to be very slow paced offensively
Speaker 4: under Matt Lafleur.
Speaker 1: Yeah, especially with the Thursday night game. I kind of
Speaker 1: lean where you are right now in this one of
Speaker 1: the under Sam. What's your early instinct of any on
Speaker 1: this line.
Speaker 3: I actually took the Packers money line this morning. I
Speaker 3: do think there is a little bit of value. I
Speaker 3: don't think that Detroit is three points better than green
Speaker 3: Bay on a neutral field, which is what this line
Speaker 3: is indicating. The Packers are dealing with a ton of
Speaker 3: health concerns. Jayira Alexander was out yesterday. Defandre Campbell left early.
Speaker 3: The left side of the offensive line is nowhere to
Speaker 3: be seen right now. But they've still allowed just a
Speaker 3: twenty one and a half percent pressure rate, which is great.
Speaker 3: It's second in the league. Green Bay still doesn't have
Speaker 3: a game with all of Baktyari, Aaron Jones, and Christian
Speaker 3: Watson playing together this year, and I do think that
Speaker 3: they might have held some of those guys out on
Speaker 3: Sunday knowing that they had the Thursday night game against
Speaker 3: a divisional opponent at home, and so I think at
Speaker 3: least two of those three guys will be active on
Speaker 3: Thursday night. Green Bay's been sort of living off of
Speaker 3: explosive plays so far this year. They have a pretty
Speaker 3: low success rate but a fairly high EPA per play.
Speaker 3: But Detroit allows the sixth highest rate of explosive pass
Speaker 3: plays on defense, so I think this is another opportunity
Speaker 3: for green Bay to steal another victory on Thursday Night.
Speaker 1: It's a great point about Watson and Aaron Jones too.
Speaker 1: If they are active, this is the time to jump
Speaker 1: on that money line number right now, because that could
Speaker 1: very well be the case of why they were just
Speaker 1: holding them a little bit longer. Because this is the
Speaker 1: game you have to win. This is the indivision contest
Speaker 1: that means the most in the standings anyway. So let's
Speaker 1: get to the next one here. Jacksonville Jaguars stick a
Speaker 1: big fat l against the Houston Texans. Ooh wee at
Speaker 1: home they are now one and two. Atlanta Falcons Cinderella
Speaker 1: is finally got lost themselves. So both these teams coming
Speaker 1: off losses a week three. Right now, we got Jacksonville
Speaker 1: your standard minus three right now at home. That feels
Speaker 1: about right as we're trying to figure out the identity
Speaker 1: of these two teams. Forty five and a half is
Speaker 1: the number four The under here at Bette Rivers forty
Speaker 1: five Arena Hafock, FanDuel. If you like the over, and
Speaker 1: then if you like the money line, bet three sixty five.
Speaker 1: As the Falcons who went outright at plus one forty five.
Speaker 1: When you look at this line, Sam, what do you see?
Speaker 3: I see the line giving you an opportunity to buy
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence at his lowest. I mean, he has not
Speaker 3: played exceptionally the first three weeks of the season. Played
Speaker 3: okay against Houston in Week one, not Houston, Indianapolis, excuse me,
Speaker 3: and then didn't fare farewell against the Chiefs, and then
Speaker 3: didn't play well this past week either, And I think
Speaker 3: they're sort of realizing that they can't just throw the
Speaker 3: ball at Calvin Ridley twelve plus times a game and
Speaker 3: win that way. They need to get some of these
Speaker 3: other playmakers involved. But Trevor Lawrence is still a much
Speaker 3: better quarterback than Desmond Rheder. He Ritter had a negative
Speaker 3: fourteen point two percent completion percentage over expectation last week,
Speaker 3: which is not especially against Detroit defense that again we
Speaker 3: just talked about hasn't been great defending the pass, and
Speaker 3: it currently looks like this.
Speaker 2: Is shaded towards Atlanta.
Speaker 3: I wonder if we see this get down to two
Speaker 3: and a half, Jacksonville in their home away from home,
Speaker 3: playing in London, so they have that bit of familiarity
Speaker 3: as well, So I'd be taking Jacksonville with the points here.
Speaker 1: Pat Sam makes a good point here. This is the
Speaker 1: way to buy Trevor Lawrence at the lowest point. Are
Speaker 1: you buying him at this lowest point here this week?
Speaker 4: I'm really not, Joe. Yes, the Jaguars have a big
Speaker 4: quarterback advantage here, but the Falcons and Arthur Smith generally
Speaker 4: do a pretty good job of hiding Desmond Ridder in
Speaker 4: that offense, and at least that's certainly what they're trying
Speaker 4: to do each and every week.
Speaker 5: Like I see these two teams.
Speaker 4: Of roughly equal caliber, and I was kind of surprised
Speaker 4: to see the Jaguars favored by what three points in
Speaker 4: this one? Let me ask you, guys, what do you
Speaker 4: think we know that Jaguars don't have a standard home
Speaker 4: field advantage in this one, with the game being in
Speaker 4: Wembley Stadium, what would you say their advantage is as
Speaker 4: far as an operational advantage? So far, they played nine
Speaker 4: London games, this will be their tenth. They're four and
Speaker 4: five so far. It's got to be worth something, but
Speaker 4: probably not worth the standard two points for home field advantage.
Speaker 1: That's a really good question, Pat, I mean, I think
Speaker 1: it's worth a little bit. That being said, Sam, do
Speaker 1: you see any advantage of the fact that they have
Speaker 1: been sort of like the default London team these last
Speaker 1: five six years.
Speaker 3: I certainly think so. I don't think it's as big
Speaker 3: of an advantage as people might think it is, because
Speaker 3: there's so much science around. You know, when to sleep,
Speaker 3: how to you know, recover from jet lag. And these
Speaker 3: are the best of the best athletes who know how
Speaker 3: to do all of this sort of stuff. And it's
Speaker 3: not like nobody in Atlanta is, you know, just not
Speaker 3: familiar with traveling overseas. I do think there is a little.
Speaker 2: Bit to it.
Speaker 3: I mean I would make it, you know, maybe close
Speaker 3: to half a point if that it right now, But
Speaker 3: it's I think I still think Jacksonville is going to
Speaker 3: get to win here, all right.
Speaker 1: Moving on to the next game here on the slate
Speaker 1: two for a time, we've got Pittsburgh and Houston. Now,
Speaker 1: Houston coming off their first victory.
Speaker 2: CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud looking good, the passing game looking good, and Eco
Speaker 1: Collins tanked out. We just talked about all those guys
Speaker 1: in the Waiver Wire podcast on Fantasy pro fits. So
Speaker 1: forty one is the number one FanDuel. Houston, of course
Speaker 1: is a four point underdog at home, which makes sense
Speaker 1: now Pittsburgh minus three on DK's what you can get
Speaker 1: right now. But you know that Pittsburgh secondary patt has
Speaker 1: not played well this year. I think we can all
Speaker 1: agree on that. Yes, second, after the quarterback, that is
Speaker 1: their saving grace on defense and offensively. I still work
Speaker 1: in progress, I mean still trying to figure out their identity.
Speaker 1: They had some moments, they had enough moments where they
Speaker 1: squeaked by last night. But what is your takeaway of
Speaker 1: any from last night, what we saw from the Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: Steelers and what you see in this early line here.
Speaker 5: Yeah, if you can keep TJ.
Speaker 4: Watt and his friends off your quarterback, you can do
Speaker 4: business against this Pittsburgh secondary. And I think the Texans
Speaker 4: passing game has been much more advanced than we thought
Speaker 4: it was gonna be.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 4: Stroud has been pretty pretty terrific so far. The Steelers
Speaker 4: might not be one of the powers of the AFC,
Speaker 4: but they have picked themselves up off the deck pretty
Speaker 4: nicely after that embarrassing home loss to the forty nine
Speaker 4: Ers in Week one. And the Texans they're not pushovers.
Speaker 4: I think this line is about right. I generally love
Speaker 4: home dogs, but I'm not sure I can get behind
Speaker 4: the Texans as a home dog against the Steelers.
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, taking a look at this line here
Speaker 1: for you. Fitz mentioned keeping Watt off of you is important,
Speaker 1: but this offensive line has had a lot of injury
Speaker 1: issues here to open the season. Do you think the
Speaker 1: health and talented the offensive line can keep Watt all
Speaker 1: of ce J Stroud?
Speaker 2: I think so. I think Houston is for real. I
Speaker 2: mean c J.
Speaker 3: Strout is making throws that make it seem like he
Speaker 3: should have been the number one overall pick in the
Speaker 3: draft this past year. I mean, he's playing phenomenally.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 3: You mentioned the playmakers that they have, you know, on
Speaker 3: the Pittsburgh offense side, it's just gruesome. I mean, I
Speaker 3: know that they played San Francisco and Cleveland, but they
Speaker 3: are just down bad historically in EPAPRI plays, success rate,
Speaker 3: you know, all of these advanced metrics, and I just
Speaker 3: don't think that giving Naj Harris the ball is really
Speaker 3: an effective strategy, even against Houston. So I think you're
Speaker 3: getting the better quarterback with the points here at home
Speaker 3: for Houston again, a defense that has been able to
Speaker 3: stifle some pretty good offenses so far this year. So
Speaker 3: I'm taking Houston with the points especially. I think I
Speaker 3: got him at plus three and a half this morning,
Speaker 3: which if you can get it on that side of three,
Speaker 3: is huge for me.
Speaker 1: The Los Angeles Rams are going to travel to Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: We'll see how the Rams perform tonight, but in the meantime,
Speaker 1: we hope that we're getting Anthony Richardson back here for
Speaker 1: the Colts. The Colts stole a victory away from the
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens on the road, a huge win for this team.
Speaker 1: They are now two and one. Forty five and a
Speaker 1: half is the number on this one. Obviously, it's practically
Speaker 1: a pick him, and understandably why I guess a lot
Speaker 1: of us to do whether or not you think Richardson
Speaker 1: plays and how big of an impact he makes. Right now,
Speaker 1: plus one and a half is where the Colts are
Speaker 1: at home. Sam, do you want to bet this line
Speaker 1: now or do you want to wait for more clarity
Speaker 1: when it comes to the quarterback situation.
Speaker 3: Definitely want to wait. These are two teams that I
Speaker 3: just like can't get a read on so far. It's
Speaker 3: because they were expected to be pretty bad going into
Speaker 3: the season, and they've played competent, above average football at
Speaker 3: certain points so far this season. I do think you
Speaker 3: know that Gardner Minshew didn't play half bad this past
Speaker 3: week against a pretty good Ravens defense. So I don't
Speaker 3: think the line really changes a ton whether it's Minshew
Speaker 3: or Richardson. But I do think that there's some more
Speaker 3: variability you're going to get with Richardson under center that
Speaker 3: could lead me to wanting the Rams in this situation.
Speaker 1: Pat, the forty five at DK right now you're getting
Speaker 1: is intriguing to me because if Richardson plays the explosiveness
Speaker 1: he carries, I think the over is something you can
Speaker 1: actually look for in this game.
Speaker 4: What do you think That's what I want to play.
Speaker 4: I don't want to play either side. I mean, we
Speaker 4: get this fun matchup of two teams, so we thought
Speaker 4: we're going to be lousy, but have turned out to
Speaker 4: be like plucky and very entertaining to watch unexpectedly.
Speaker 5: But yeah, I like the over a lot. Here. We've
Speaker 5: seen the Colts play.
Speaker 4: At a breakneck offensive pace under Shane Steichen, Like that
Speaker 4: is how they want to play. That's going to be
Speaker 4: very friendly to overs, I think. And the Colts they
Speaker 4: have a veteran slot corner in Kenny Moore, but their
Speaker 4: outside cornerbacks are very inexperienced, and I think Matthew Stafford
Speaker 4: might be able to take advantage of that. I think
Speaker 4: there are gonna be points.
Speaker 2: In this game. Joe, Yeah, I tend to agree with that.
Speaker 2: Good Joe. You mentioned the explosive nature of Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 2: I believe, if I remember correctly, he only has two
Speaker 2: pass attempts more than twenty yards downfield so far this season,
Speaker 2: which is kind of different than people would have expected
Speaker 2: coming into this season given how how much he was
Speaker 2: launching the ball at Florida. But I do think Stiken
Speaker 2: has been setting him up to get some easy completions
Speaker 2: and build is confident.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the I think you're one hundred percent right,
Speaker 1: and Stiken's a great offensivend I think we've already seen
Speaker 1: that in Philly for those last few years, and it's
Speaker 1: also well known around the league. A lot of league
Speaker 1: people talk about, like Stichen's that guy that people are
Speaker 1: very excited to see get that head coaching job and
Speaker 1: what he can do with Richardson. But Richardson's ability to
Speaker 1: make plays with his legs, those are the ones that really,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, you know you got somebody you
Speaker 1: know you're in the red zone. It's third and eight,
Speaker 1: and next thing you know, he runs for a touchdown
Speaker 1: from the eighteen yard line like like that. That's the
Speaker 1: kind of stuff and you saw it before he had
Speaker 1: the concussion. That's backbreaking stuff for the opposing defenses, but
Speaker 1: also for totals, because that's stuff that just should not happen,
Speaker 1: but it does when you have guys like Anthony Richardson
Speaker 1: with a ball in their hands. So I'm kind of where.
Speaker 2: Bad is too.
Speaker 1: I think you leave this one to the coin flip.
Speaker 1: It is speaking of bad teams though, by the way,
Speaker 1: you kind of mentioned teams that we don't know who
Speaker 1: they are, haven't played. Well, how about the Minnesota Vikings
Speaker 1: and the Carolina Panthers, everybody. How about the winless ball here? Now,
Speaker 1: somebody theoretically has to win. I guess they could tie,
Speaker 1: but we're going to get the red rifle again this week.
Speaker 1: So Caroline, of course, three point underdogs at home, as
Speaker 1: we would expect them to be, Minnesota's defense, not getting
Speaker 1: a lot of credit as they should not. Forty four
Speaker 1: and a half is the number for this one. If
Speaker 1: you like the Panthers to get their first victory, well,
Speaker 1: you can get it plus one forty at Caesars Fits.
Speaker 1: You know, the Vikings were handed many opportunities. They could
Speaker 1: not cash in on those opportunities. The defense is dreadful.
Speaker 1: I know Caroline is not a good football team. Theoretically
Speaker 1: on pay, Minnesota should handle them, but they're only getting
Speaker 1: the three points here. Do you think that Minnesota can
Speaker 1: finally pull themselves up by the haunches and do something
Speaker 1: here and win this game decisively by more than three points?
Speaker 4: They can, But I do like a money line bat
Speaker 4: on Carolina at plus one, you know, a home under,
Speaker 4: especially if Andy Dalton plays like with Andy Dalton starting, Yes,
Speaker 4: I mean we saw Andy Dalton complete thirty four or
Speaker 4: fifty eight passes. They turn Andy Dalton loose against a
Speaker 4: bad Seattle defense that was missing Tarik Woollen, and now
Speaker 4: he's going to be turned loose against a very bad
Speaker 4: Minnesota defense. I like the Panthers in the money line,
Speaker 4: and I like the over here, like I think we're
Speaker 4: going to see a lot of offense. The Minnesota defense
Speaker 4: is not good, but Minnesota's offense is very good. They're
Speaker 4: gonna put points up themselves.
Speaker 1: Sam I was very much on Minnesota this past week
Speaker 1: I did not think they were the team that was
Speaker 1: gonna come out winless. They did. I don't know if
Speaker 1: I'm ready to learned to love again in week four.
Speaker 1: This game, to me right now is terrifying, but Pat
Speaker 1: seem very confident Carolina's abilities to maybe pull one out
Speaker 1: of the hat. Do you see that same path to
Speaker 1: victory for the Panthers.
Speaker 3: I am once again on the other side of fits here.
Speaker 2: I mentioned at.
Speaker 3: The top of the show that Minnesota has just been
Speaker 3: snake bitten by turnovers. Nearly a quarter of their offensive
Speaker 3: drives have ended in turnovers. They have nine total turnovers
Speaker 3: this season. Carolina defense could be without Frankie Louvu and
Speaker 3: Xavier Woods, who both left the game early on Sunday.
Speaker 3: Minnesota's offense is still exceptionally good. I mean, they have
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson, they have Jordan Addison, they have TJ. Hockinson.
Speaker 3: Like this offense is exceptional. They have a ten point
Speaker 3: eight percent explosive passwraight at second in the league. I
Speaker 3: already took the over in this game as well. I
Speaker 3: think this could be a shootout. So I'm on the
Speaker 3: same side as fits there. But I just I think
Speaker 3: these teams can can score a bunch of points and
Speaker 3: their defenses aren't going to be doing much to get
Speaker 3: in the way of that.
Speaker 1: All right, some quarterback updates still yet to come in
Speaker 1: this next game, because we have the New Orleans Saints
Speaker 1: with Derek Carr. They are two to one now. They
Speaker 1: did lose that game to the Green Bay Packers, so
Speaker 1: much of the happiness of my co hosts here now.
Speaker 1: Derek Carr came away with a sprain day seed joints,
Speaker 1: so he's probably gonna miss a few weeks. I've had
Speaker 1: that injury myself. It's it'll take a couple of weeks
Speaker 1: for him to get back, but he should be able
Speaker 1: to play again this season, which means is probably gonna
Speaker 1: be Jameis Winston. Now, the Saints are three point favorites
Speaker 1: at home to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay obviously you get
Speaker 1: to play this evening against the Philadelphia Eagles, so we'll
Speaker 1: see what comes out of that game. But forty one
Speaker 1: is the number you're getting at Sugarhouse, forty and a
Speaker 1: half at DK, so we're kind of in that same vein.
Speaker 1: If you like Tampa for the upset plus one forty five,
Speaker 1: you can get that over at Sugarhouse, Sam, when you're
Speaker 1: looking at this one, and I mean, I feel like
Speaker 1: Winston's been inept. I think that's the best way to
Speaker 1: put it this point. Like, you know, New Orleans had
Speaker 1: that game basically in the third quarter that injury happened
Speaker 1: and all just fell apart for them. They should theoretically
Speaker 1: win this football game, but Tampa has shown that they've
Speaker 1: been a little pluckier than we think they would be.
Speaker 1: Do you think this is a perfect trap game for
Speaker 1: the Saints.
Speaker 3: I think this is going to be an extremely low
Speaker 3: scoring game. Both defenses are currently top eight in EPA
Speaker 3: per play it allowed early down success rate, passing success rate,
Speaker 3: So I think these teams are going to struggle to
Speaker 3: move the ball again with two quarterbacks that we both
Speaker 3: I think we all see as below average in Baker
Speaker 3: Mayfield and Jamis Winston. So I'd be looking to take
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay with the points because again, in these low
Speaker 3: scoring games, it's going to be a lot closer and
Speaker 3: getting potentially three three and a half points, I think
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay's offense has been good enough to keep them
Speaker 3: in their games.
Speaker 1: Pat your thoughts here on the Buccaneers, So I'd say,
Speaker 1: of so far played well above my expectations. We'll see
Speaker 1: what happens against a real football team in the tonight.
Speaker 1: So now we have a little perspective. Maybe beating the
Speaker 1: Vikings opening week wasn't as oppressive as we thought it was.
Speaker 1: So Tampa is the underdog year. But with the backup quarterback,
Speaker 1: is this game a little closer? Maybe? Perhaps in your mind.
Speaker 4: I don't know what to make of the Buccaneers offense yet, Joe.
Speaker 4: With Baker Mayfield doing well against the Vikings and Bears, like,
Speaker 4: we can't consider that as counting for much. It'll be
Speaker 4: interesting to see how he does against an Eagles defense
Speaker 4: that allowed I think like one hundred and seventy nine
Speaker 4: passing yards per game on average in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4: So yeah, this game is really a hard one to peg.
Speaker 4: I mean, we had the Adam Thielen ball. Now we've
Speaker 4: got the Jamis Winston ball. And Winston adds this air
Speaker 4: of unpredictability to this game. I mean, this is the
Speaker 4: guy who was a thirty to thirty quarterback the last
Speaker 4: time we saw him as a full time starter thirty
Speaker 4: three touchdowns in twenty nineteen with the Buccaneers thirty interceptions.
Speaker 4: I mean he could go nuclear and torch the Buccaneers defense.
Speaker 4: He could commit five turnovers. We don't know. Like Sam,
Speaker 4: if you forced me to play it, I'd probably play
Speaker 4: the under. But I it's a pretty low number, So
Speaker 4: I don't think I'm gonna play that either.
Speaker 5: I'm just gonna stay away.
Speaker 1: I think that that might be a good a good
Speaker 1: practice there. But you know that total, that forty one,
Speaker 1: I mean, that is a low number here. You know,
Speaker 1: when you start scratching the surface of that the thirties,
Speaker 1: that's when you know that Vegas is saying, hey, this
Speaker 1: is not gonna be a fun game for the daily
Speaker 1: fantasy or for some other things too. And I don't
Speaker 1: want to hear about Winston revenge games because he's been
Speaker 1: in that division forever now, so he's in a backup
Speaker 1: there for the Saints or a starter at times when
Speaker 1: called upon. The Philadelphia Eagles are going to host the
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. This Indivision matchup will take place in Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: The Eagles are seven point favorites as of now over
Speaker 1: on DraftKings. If you like the upset here of the
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders, it's plus two to seventy five. The number here,
Speaker 1: the total is forty four and a half fits when
Speaker 1: you're looking at this one here, this feels like your
Speaker 1: normal sort of situation line here. If the Eagles go
Speaker 1: out and Monday night and smash here, do you think
Speaker 1: this line moves any bit?
Speaker 4: I do, which is why I've already grabbed the Eagles
Speaker 4: and locked them in at seven points. I'm betting them confidently,
Speaker 4: even on the short week of rest. Sam Howell turned
Speaker 4: to absolute jelly against a good Buffalo Bell's pass defense,
Speaker 4: and the Eagles have a good pass defense as well.
Speaker 4: This spread feels way too small to me, and I
Speaker 4: think we're going to see it go up. You know,
Speaker 4: I do think the Eagles are going to beat the
Speaker 4: Buccaneers tonight and that's going to move this line.
Speaker 1: That feels right to me. Sam, your friend and name
Speaker 1: Sam Howell made some bad decisions on Sunday. Can't make
Speaker 1: those decisions against the Eagles. They're really going to put
Speaker 1: you in a bad spot, just like the Buffalo Bills did.
Speaker 1: I'm kind of where Pad is on this one. If
Speaker 1: you like the Eagles, you want to bet this one now,
Speaker 1: because the more time I think goes by the more
Speaker 1: people will continue to grow confident in that Eagle's home
Speaker 1: field advantage and the Commander is still relatively although they
Speaker 1: were impressed in the first couple of weeks. You know,
Speaker 1: when you start playing better football teams, this is what happens.
Speaker 1: So what are your thoughts on this early line.
Speaker 3: Washington got drag back down to earth after their fans
Speaker 3: were very optimistic and I think rightfully so through the
Speaker 3: first two weeks. But I think Philadelphia should have no
Speaker 3: trouble just running all over this Commander's defense. Philadelphia ranks
Speaker 3: fourth in rushing EPA per play and first in rushing
Speaker 3: success rate. I don't think it really matters who they
Speaker 3: have in the backfield, whether it's DeAndre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell,
Speaker 3: Boston Scott, all of these guys should be able to
Speaker 3: have some success. So I think this is a game
Speaker 3: where Philadelphia goes in, even on a short week, and
Speaker 3: just handles their business in at Philadelphia, all right.
Speaker 1: This one could be the game of the week here.
Speaker 1: The Buffalo Bills, two and a half point favorites at
Speaker 1: home against the Miami Dolphins, are still favorites at home
Speaker 1: after Miami put up seventy points on the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1: But regardless the number on the over, if you like
Speaker 1: it minus one twelve fifty one at Sugarhouse three and
Speaker 1: a half minus one ten a DK. If you like
Speaker 1: Miami to win outright at plus one thirty five, that's
Speaker 1: the number you're getting a Sugarhouse right now in the
Speaker 1: early line. Now, Sam, this is a fascinating one because
Speaker 1: the recency bias here. People are gonna run to this
Speaker 1: total and bet the over. But it is an indivision matchup.
Speaker 1: These teams do know each other very well. There's a
Speaker 1: familiarity there as opposed to the teams you're playing out
Speaker 1: of division or even out of conference. Do you think
Speaker 1: that's a mistake to people running to this line and
Speaker 1: going over right away?
Speaker 3: I do think so. We saw in the Chargers Vikings
Speaker 3: game this past week with a similar total line that
Speaker 3: you need pretty much everything to go right for a
Speaker 3: game with that high of a total to go over.
Speaker 3: There were red zone turnovers in that game that forced
Speaker 3: them not to score and lengthen the game. And I
Speaker 3: don't know, I've been going back and forth all morning
Speaker 3: around which team I think is going to win. I
Speaker 3: think I take Miami with the points right now.
Speaker 2: But I I'm.
Speaker 3: Just gonna sit back and enjoy this game without any
Speaker 3: betting leans for right now.
Speaker 1: To tell you the truth, Pat, I think the best
Speaker 1: number on this board is probably the under of fifty
Speaker 1: three and a half on DK because that is inching
Speaker 1: to where you know that threshold of team's really got
Speaker 1: everyone's got to put it together. And I know, I
Speaker 1: feel like a lot of money is going to come
Speaker 1: in on the over, so maybe this number even pushes higher.
Speaker 1: So maybe you wait if you like the over under.
Speaker 1: But I like Miami on the money line plus one
Speaker 1: thirty five here. I'm I'm believing in what Mike McDaniel's
Speaker 1: doing here with this offense.
Speaker 5: What do you think, Joe, We're very like minded this week.
Speaker 1: I know it's not always the same, I hope so
Speaker 1: because last week I was on an island and it
Speaker 1: did not work out. I drowned. I drowned trying to
Speaker 1: swim off the island on Sunday night.
Speaker 4: So yeah, you mentioned the totals already up to fifty
Speaker 4: three and a half on Draft Kings, and I do
Speaker 4: think it's going to climb even higher, like we saw
Speaker 4: these teams combine for over one hundred points of offense
Speaker 4: in Week three.
Speaker 5: So and if it.
Speaker 4: Does get up to fifty four higher, I will be
Speaker 4: betting the under two because, as Andrew Erickson pointed out
Speaker 4: in the Betting Pros Betting primer, which you should be reading,
Speaker 4: by the way, because then you'd see things like Ericson's
Speaker 4: recommendation to bet Donald Parum for a first TD scorer
Speaker 4: at thirty to one, which came in and made people
Speaker 4: a lot of money. But so if it does get
Speaker 4: to fifty four, as Ericson pointed out, we have now
Speaker 4: seen it was four last season. In this season and
Speaker 4: now it's five because we saw the Chargers Vikings game
Speaker 4: close at fifty four. Games that close at fifty four
Speaker 4: points or higher, we've had five of them now since
Speaker 4: the start of twenty twenty two, all five of stayed under.
Speaker 4: And so you know, I think we're going to see
Speaker 4: that trend continue if this gets up to fifty four.
Speaker 4: I also like the Dolphins. I mean I think they
Speaker 4: are the equal of the Buffalo Bills. Home field advantage
Speaker 4: is worth about two points. If I'm getting the Dolphins
Speaker 4: in three, especially like with that field goal number, I
Speaker 4: think we're getting like a point of value, So I
Speaker 4: don't know whether.
Speaker 1: They can get Jalen Wattle back too. Theoretically, yeah, that's
Speaker 1: what we're expecting.
Speaker 4: I'm just not sure whether to get it at three
Speaker 4: wait and hope it goes up to three and a half,
Speaker 4: or you know, like it could go down to two
Speaker 4: and a half and I can't figure out which way
Speaker 4: the line would be more likely to move.
Speaker 1: Well, what you got to do then, is set your
Speaker 1: notifications for the game notification and the Betting Pros app
Speaker 1: the line alerts. That's what it's there for. See you
Speaker 1: look at that perfect segue. So if you haven't already
Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros apps, think all your sportsbook, but
Speaker 1: use the game notification. So you could basically say, I
Speaker 1: want to keep an eye on this line here, does
Speaker 1: it go to fifty four? Does go to fifty four
Speaker 1: and a half? I want to be this is the
Speaker 1: perfect example of how to use the line alerts or
Speaker 1: the game notification because I'm waiting for this one to grow,
Speaker 1: because I think it will. People are gonna keep talking
Speaker 1: in the media about the seventy. They're gonna be talking
Speaker 1: all about the Dolphins, and they should. They earnt that right,
Speaker 1: But I think it's going to inflate this number even
Speaker 1: more so the number I'm waiting on. But I like
Speaker 1: the Dolphins here plus one thirty five. But check out
Speaker 1: the line alerts and set those game notifications so you
Speaker 1: know when the lines move, then you can pounce on it.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to the next game here, maybe
Speaker 1: not quite as exciting as the last one. Cincinnati Bengals
Speaker 1: to the Tennessee Titans. Again, a lot of uncertainty here,
Speaker 1: man FITZI. I thought that that plus four that I
Speaker 1: got on the Titans was such a good number. I
Speaker 1: got that one early last week, right after the show.
Speaker 1: I locked that bad boy in. It did not matter.
Speaker 1: The Titans were terrible. The offensive line just laid down
Speaker 1: for Miles Garrett as I would too. I don't blame them,
Speaker 1: but they are right now. You can get the Tennessee
Speaker 1: Titans at plus one and a half at Sugarhouse. You
Speaker 1: get Cincinnati at plus two and a half at Caesars.
Speaker 1: Nobody knows what to do with this game. You get
Speaker 1: forty one and a half on FanDuel, but forty four
Speaker 1: on the under on Sugarhouse if you like that one,
Speaker 1: and then it's even money for the Titans plus one
Speaker 1: fifteen at Caesars. This is your classic. You go choose
Speaker 1: your own adventure situation. But I guess a lot of
Speaker 1: it has to do with the health of Joe Burrow.
Speaker 1: So if you think Joe Burrow sits this week, comes
Speaker 1: back healthy next week and has himself a game, well,
Speaker 1: then this is the time to go bat Cincinnati. But
Speaker 1: that's a big question mark, isn't.
Speaker 4: If it Bengals are going to shut down Joe Burrow
Speaker 4: just for the long term good, which makes me want
Speaker 4: to bet the under here now to lock it in
Speaker 4: at forty two and a half on DraftKings as of
Speaker 4: this morning. I also want to do something with the Titans,
Speaker 4: and maybe, like you, Joe, I'm guilty of giving too
Speaker 4: much credit to Mike Frable sometimes and it's kind of
Speaker 4: burned me. It burned me too last week. I thought
Speaker 4: they were gonna, you know, turn it into like a
Speaker 4: rock fight with the Browns and keep it close.
Speaker 5: Didn't happen.
Speaker 4: But so rather than take the Titans like on the
Speaker 4: money line or you know, just a point and a half,
Speaker 4: I might try to tease the put the Titans in
Speaker 4: some sort of teaser where I'm getting more than a
Speaker 4: field goal with them that I kind of like. I
Speaker 4: think if we get no Joe Burrow, the Titans do
Speaker 4: no worse than lose by a field goal or less.
Speaker 1: Sam. This one's really dangerous for me because I feel
Speaker 1: like I'm overreacting to my disdain of what happened this week,
Speaker 1: and the Titans will do exactly what Fitz said, turn
Speaker 1: this one into the rock fight, and then this one
Speaker 1: will be a low total, and then this one will
Speaker 1: be a Tennessee Titans victory when maybe they shouldn't win.
Speaker 1: What do you think though about the Titans because this
Speaker 1: is a really tough game on the schedule.
Speaker 3: It is, but Tennessee's defense just made Deshaun Watson look
Speaker 3: exceptionally good. He had I think, his best game as
Speaker 3: a Brown. So if Joe Burrow comes out of the
Speaker 3: game tonight without any setbacks, then I'm going probably pretty
Speaker 3: heavy on the Bengals. Tennessee has a pass funnel defense.
Speaker 3: They're rushing defense is top five in EPA per plays
Speaker 3: success rate and explosive rush rate, but their bottom might
Speaker 3: in passing EPA per play and passing success rates. So
Speaker 3: the way that Cincinnati is going to be able to
Speaker 3: move the ball is through the air, and I think
Speaker 3: even with Joe Burrow at less than one hundred percent,
Speaker 3: he'll be able to get it, you know, Jamar Chase
Speaker 3: T Higgins, Tyler Boyd the ball in space and be
Speaker 3: able to carve up this Tennessee defense. So I'm waiting
Speaker 3: until the game tonight is over to make sure that
Speaker 3: that Joe Burrow is still intact. But if he is
Speaker 3: then and this line stays with Cincinnati as the underdog,
Speaker 3: then I'll be taking.
Speaker 1: Them Another Indivision matchup, this one AFC North Baltimore Ravens
Speaker 1: two and one. They are plus two right now in Sugarhouse,
Speaker 1: traveling to Cleveland, which you can get a plus one
Speaker 1: and a half over at bet Rivers. Again, everyone's trying
Speaker 1: to figure this out here. I don't think anybody has
Speaker 1: a good beat on how good or bad the Ravens
Speaker 1: really are, or really how good or bad Deshaun Watson
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns are, especially without Chubb. Forty four and
Speaker 1: a half is the best number you can get for
Speaker 1: the under forty two and a half, the best numbered
Speaker 1: FanDuel you can get, by the way, for the over
Speaker 1: plus one oh five on the money line. If you
Speaker 1: like Baltimore to win outright, Sam, do you see any
Speaker 1: early value in this contest between the Browns and.
Speaker 3: The Ravens Getting forty four and a half, I'm going
Speaker 3: under easily. I mean, you know you mentioned Miles Garrett
Speaker 3: in the previous game. I don't know if he saw
Speaker 3: the clip of him motioning to one side of the field,
Speaker 3: Tennessee shifting two guys towards him, him going back to
Speaker 3: the other side, and them shifting those to same two
Speaker 3: guys over to block him. I mean, he's a force
Speaker 3: to be reckoned with this Brown's defense is through three
Speaker 3: games setting some historical rates right now. The Ravens offense
Speaker 3: still looks a little out of sorts with this new
Speaker 3: Todd Monkin offense, and the Ravens are just dealing with
Speaker 3: a ton of injuries to Ronnie Stanley and Todd Linderbaum
Speaker 3: were both out for the second straight week again. David
Speaker 3: Ajabo left early on Sunday, while A dafe Owi and
Speaker 3: Marcus Williams who were both out too. So I just
Speaker 3: think this game is going to go way under that
Speaker 3: forty four and a half going to be one of
Speaker 3: those classic AFC North slugfests. That we typically see in
Speaker 3: in December, but get a little taste of in early
Speaker 3: October here.
Speaker 1: All right, you want to get any taste of this
Speaker 1: early line when it comes to Baltimore and Cleveland, pet Yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Mean it's gonna be, as Sam said, a classic KFC
Speaker 4: North Slugfest, low scoring close. If I can get the
Speaker 4: total at anything forty two or higher, yeah, sign me
Speaker 4: up for the under. I saw forty one and a
Speaker 4: half on DraftKings this morning, so I'm eager to watch
Speaker 4: this game.
Speaker 5: I'm not so eager to bet forty four.
Speaker 1: You can get that under at bet rivers right now.
Speaker 1: That's why I use betting Pros sink all your sportsbooks.
Speaker 1: And again you can follow the guys too bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: Com slash Sam, slash fits, slash Joe. But not last week.
Speaker 1: You shouldn't have followed me last week. This week will
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Speaker 1: It's free, it's fun. Everybody likes free stuff. Now somebody's
Speaker 1: gonna come out with a free victory. Here is the
Speaker 1: Chicago Bears, now you know, winless, going to face the
Speaker 1: winless Denver Broncos. Now the Broncos on paper they look
Speaker 1: like the better team. Theoretically they are two point favorites
Speaker 1: on the road at Sugar House. Forty four and a
Speaker 1: half is the number. You can get it forty five
Speaker 1: and a half on FanDuel if you like the under
Speaker 1: and then you get plus one twenty five. You think
Speaker 1: the Bears can actually get themselves together and win a
Speaker 1: football game. I know you are keen on the Denver
Speaker 1: Broncos defense bouncing back after being grossly all time embarrassed.
Speaker 1: Can they bounce back after what happened? And can the
Speaker 1: Denver Broncos finally get a victory in the Sean Payton era?
Speaker 4: Joe and I am going to bet them. Both of
Speaker 4: these teams are having major issues obviously, but I think
Speaker 4: the Bears issues are irreparable. Like that team is so
Speaker 4: beyond dysfunctional. It's like I could not have seen this coming.
Speaker 4: And the Bears are just a train wreck right now.
Speaker 4: They're completely off the rails.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 4: I know the Broncos have problems of their own, And man,
Speaker 4: I wanted to give Garrett Balls a hug after hearing
Speaker 4: his postgame comments about how like he's been there for
Speaker 4: seven years and all he's ever done is lost, and like,
Speaker 4: I felt so bad for the guy. But I do
Speaker 4: think the Broncos can get it together. They played a
Speaker 4: close game and lost to the Raiders at home in
Speaker 4: Week one. They should not have let one slip away
Speaker 4: against the Commanders in Week two. Yes, things totally fell
Speaker 4: apart against the Dolphins in Week three, but I think
Speaker 4: they can get it back together against a team that
Speaker 4: I don't think can get it back together, the Bears.
Speaker 4: I'm taking the Dolphs the Broncos, and I'd lay more
Speaker 4: than three and a half points. Like if this went
Speaker 4: up to five and a half, I think i'd still
Speaker 4: bet the Broncos.
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, your feelings about these two teams both
Speaker 1: headed towards the downward trajectory, But somebody's got to come out.
Speaker 1: So who comes out of this one with a W.
Speaker 2: I'm with Fits.
Speaker 3: We've reached the thirty seven minute mark in the pod,
Speaker 3: and I think this is the first.
Speaker 2: Time I have with him on his side.
Speaker 3: But both of these teams were just embarrassed on Sunday
Speaker 3: in different ways, and I think I give Denver a
Speaker 3: much better chance to bounce back low Ki. I don't
Speaker 3: think their offense in Denver is that bad. They've had
Speaker 3: some success. They're in the half of the league in
Speaker 3: a lot of efficiency metrics. They're not blowing anyone away.
Speaker 3: But against a devastatingly bad Bears defense, I think they
Speaker 3: come away with an easy victory here. I like some
Speaker 3: alternate spreads on Denver in this game, to you know,
Speaker 3: just really put it to the Chicago Bears.
Speaker 1: All right, the Las Vegas Raiders are going to go
Speaker 1: to LA to play the Chargers. The Chargers are four
Speaker 1: point favorites at home, fifty and a half as the
Speaker 1: number Jimmy Garoppolo should play in this one plus one
Speaker 1: seventy five like the upset, Sam, your thoughts on this
Speaker 1: contest here with Vegas and the Chargers.
Speaker 3: The Chargers are clearly the better team. Their offense is
Speaker 3: firing on all cylinders. If not for Tua, I think,
Speaker 3: and you know, being one and two, I think Herbert
Speaker 3: would easily be in the MVP discussion. He has been
Speaker 3: playing exceptionally well this year. I think, you know, obviously
Speaker 3: the Chargers defense isn't that great, but the Raiders defense
Speaker 3: can't really make a stop to save its life. They
Speaker 3: just allowed the Pittsburgh offense to look good. So I'm
Speaker 3: I'm laying the points with Los Angeles here.
Speaker 1: Mike Williams out for the year torn a cl We
Speaker 1: just got that news breaking while we were recording the show.
Speaker 1: Fits impact here at all in this line for you
Speaker 1: with Mike Williams done and then having to move to
Speaker 1: QJ and maybe you know some more Palmer in this
Speaker 1: lineup too.
Speaker 4: With this over at fifty, maybe I'm going to get
Speaker 4: Brandon Staleid here and the Chargers head coach is going
Speaker 4: to make some sort of terrible decision that costs me
Speaker 4: my wager here. But I'm going to continue my full
Speaker 4: season fade of Josh McDaniels. I've bet against him every
Speaker 4: week so far. I'm going to keep betting against McDaniels
Speaker 4: and the Raiders.
Speaker 5: And you know, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Fitz, Dallas Cowboys suffered their first loss. They are
Speaker 1: now two and one Arizona Cardinals. They are still six
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites hosting New England this week.
Speaker 1: Forty two is the number sometimes forty two and a half.
Speaker 1: You're gonna get Sugarhouse forty two over a FanDuel if
Speaker 1: you think New England will win, it's plus two eighty
Speaker 1: on the money line. I do not. I don't think
Speaker 1: this offense is good enough. The defense is respectable, that's
Speaker 1: for sure, but still, look, Dallas, I expected to bounce
Speaker 1: back this week. The question is is this too big
Speaker 1: of a number here? Too much credit for the Cowboys
Speaker 1: at six and a half fits?
Speaker 4: You know, I want to believe the Cowboys are going
Speaker 4: to be out for vengeance after that toast stubbing in Arizona.
Speaker 4: But I do wonder if the loss of Trayvon Diggs,
Speaker 4: oh I change something like, yeah, that's a big deal,
Speaker 4: Like I don't know if mac Jones can capitalize on it.
Speaker 4: And we know that the Cowboys can still get after
Speaker 4: the quarterback, certainly with Micah Parsons. So yeah, I just
Speaker 4: like I think the lines are the line in the
Speaker 4: total are both spot on here.
Speaker 5: I just don't want to beat this.
Speaker 1: Well, speaking of Jones as too, the secondary for the
Speaker 1: Newland Patriots was missing all their Joneses, all three of
Speaker 1: them for this past matchup, so that's also a problem
Speaker 1: on the other side here for the newle Patriots. Do
Speaker 1: you see any value here? Sam early on on this
Speaker 1: Cowboys six and a half number.
Speaker 3: To I agree with fits Again, I think all these
Speaker 3: lines are are spot on. I think people will overreact
Speaker 3: a little bit to Dallas losing this past week, and
Speaker 3: I'll talk about that in a minute. Here with our
Speaker 3: next game.
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk about San Francisco, who is undefeated, looks great,
Speaker 1: Arizona has look for all this crap we gave the
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals organization. They have been competitive on the field.
Speaker 1: They're showing up for every game, even when they shouldn't
Speaker 1: be showing up for some of these games. Forty nine Ers, though,
Speaker 1: are still fourteen point favorites at home fourteen and a
Speaker 1: half on the plus side for Arizona, get Sugarhouse fourteen
Speaker 1: at FanDuel forty one to forty two. That's about the
Speaker 1: Ranger getting this number. Arizona, there will be an epic
Speaker 1: upset for them at plus six fifty Sam fourteen is
Speaker 1: a big number. Can the forty nine ers cover it?
Speaker 3: I make this San Francisco by thirteen, So I'd probably
Speaker 3: take Arizona. Their offense has not been a bismol to
Speaker 3: your points. Their fifth and early down EPA per play
Speaker 3: and success rate. They've played against Washington, the Giants, and Dallas,
Speaker 3: who are all not terrible defenses. In Dallas is a
Speaker 3: great defense, so I think they're going to be able
Speaker 3: to have some six sess. I'm not betting this because
Speaker 3: I still do worry that Arizona comes back down to earth,
Speaker 3: but there's a real scenario where our Cardinals could have
Speaker 3: been three and oh so far this season.
Speaker 1: You're right, I think the one thing I take away,
Speaker 1: though pit fits is the you know, because they beat
Speaker 1: the Cowboys yesterday. I do think San Francisco goes Okay,
Speaker 1: we got to take this game very seriously. It's in
Speaker 1: our division, you know, like we better put a pounding
Speaker 1: on the Arizona Cardinals because this team's going to show up.
Speaker 1: So in some ways, I feel like that victory is
Speaker 1: almost like a wake up call without a wake up
Speaker 1: call for San fran who, by the way, also has
Speaker 1: extra rest for this game play.
Speaker 4: Joe, I'm want to grab the forty nine Ers while
Speaker 4: I can at only two touchdowns. I mean, look at
Speaker 4: how they just squeeze the life out of the New
Speaker 4: York Giants in Week three, and now they do get
Speaker 4: that extra rest as you pointed out. And look, the
Speaker 4: Cardinals are already messing up this whole tanking thing. I
Speaker 4: think they need to come to their senses and get
Speaker 4: back to the business of losing, which behooves the franchise
Speaker 4: long term. Yes, they beat the Cowboys, but the forty
Speaker 4: nine Ers have shown they know how to handle an
Speaker 4: overmatched opponent, like even a you know, fairly closely matched opponent.
Speaker 5: They just crushed the.
Speaker 4: Steelers in Week one like I think this line should
Speaker 4: be at least like fifteen and a half.
Speaker 5: I want to get it now.
Speaker 1: Kansaity Chiefs are going to travel to New York. They
Speaker 1: are eight and a half point favorites. Plus nine you
Speaker 1: can get at Sugarhouse on the Jets forty three to
Speaker 1: forty three and a half. That's kind of the range
Speaker 1: right now. You're seeing on the line plus three fifty
Speaker 1: if you think the Jets can win, and I don't.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about this one FITZI here. I mean, Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson has been historically bad. Let's just lay it out there.
Speaker 1: That's how it's been. The numbers bared out. It's period,
Speaker 1: end of story. But the defense still very good year
Speaker 1: for the Jets. Can the defense keep this eight and
Speaker 1: a half in check? Yeah?
Speaker 4: Boy, Patrick Mahomes versus Zach Wilson, talk about, you know,
Speaker 4: David versus Goliath type of matchup.
Speaker 1: I like want Shaquille O'Neil playing one on one basketball.
Speaker 4: That's pretty much I want to lay the points here
Speaker 4: when I look at that quarterback matchup. But I do
Speaker 4: still have the utmost respect for the Jets defense, and
Speaker 4: they are not The Jets aren't going to roll over
Speaker 4: like the Chicago Bears did for the Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 4: in Week four.
Speaker 5: So I don't think I'm going to play this one.
Speaker 1: Sam, your thoughts on this one.
Speaker 3: I'm playing it. Give me Patrick Mahomes and the points
Speaker 3: in the defense is really good. I do like the
Speaker 3: Jets defense, But yeah, Zach Wilson is just so bad,
Speaker 3: and I think Kansas City will be able to make
Speaker 3: his days as bad as it has been so far
Speaker 3: this season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that pass rushes back with Chris Jones
Speaker 1: to eight and a half is Actually this is one
Speaker 1: of the numbers I like a lot. I want to
Speaker 1: get this locked in now before it grows, because it
Speaker 1: will next year. In final the New York Giants at home.
Speaker 1: We don't have clarity about Saquon I would expect him
Speaker 1: not to play. Considering all the information Doctor Chow gave
Speaker 1: us on the podcast last week on Fantasy Pros, it
Speaker 1: seems like he's gonna be a couple weeks with the
Speaker 1: high ankle. Plus one and a half is what you're
Speaker 1: getting here. The Seattle Seahawks one and a half point favorites.
Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the number of sometimes
Speaker 1: forty five like over on fans and then plus one
Speaker 1: eighteen like the Giants who went home outright, Sam, let's
Speaker 1: lock this one up. Giants Seattle any early value here
Speaker 1: in we four.
Speaker 3: I think their offense, after stumbling a bit Week one
Speaker 3: against the Rams, has has come back and had two
Speaker 3: great showings. G you know, Smith is looking a little
Speaker 3: bit better. Kenneth Walker and Zach Sharpenay are a great
Speaker 3: one two punch in that backfield defense hasn't been stellar
Speaker 3: by any means, But I don't think Daniel Jones is
Speaker 3: that big of a threat to to put the pressure
Speaker 3: on Seattle. So give me Seattle with the points.
Speaker 1: I agree. I'm with Sam minus one and a half
Speaker 1: minus one oh nine. You're getting on that one, Fitz,
Speaker 1: are you three for three on this one?
Speaker 5: Heck no, let me close the show with some disagreement.
Speaker 4: I'm KII give me the home dog on nine days rest,
Speaker 4: and like, I feel like the Seattle defense could be
Speaker 4: the get well card that the Giants offense really needs
Speaker 4: at this point. I like the over here. I think
Speaker 4: this game has sneak shootout potential. As bad as these
Speaker 4: two defenses are, I think it's gonna be a fun
Speaker 4: way to wrap up Week four, but yeah, I like
Speaker 4: the home dog.
Speaker 5: Give me the giants, all right?
Speaker 1: We want to hear from you, guys. What are your
Speaker 1: favorite picks for Week four? Early and off and drop
Speaker 1: them in the comments below. Subscribe to the channel, click
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Speaker 1: alerts to as these lines are gonna move throughout the week.
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the
Speaker 1: game goes on for Sam and Pat. I'm Joey P.
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time.
Speaker 2: Kids.
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