WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 4 NFL Game (Ep. 344) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.280 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:05.720 your bets. So this is meet Joey Paid Joe Pisapia. 0:00:06.080 --> 0:00:08.840 Week three is just about concluded. A few games left 0:00:08.840 --> 0:00:11.200 here a Monday night. You can catch us by PM 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:13.760 Eastern every single Monday live on the YouTube channel breaking 0:00:13.800 --> 0:00:15.960 those games down on Monday and Thursday night myself at 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:19.320 Scott Bogman. But this year this is about looking ahead. 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:21.880 And man, oh man, I'm depressed. It was a bad 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:24.799 week for me. I is terrible this week. I'm gonna 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:27.320 take all the l's here because I thought there was 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:29.800 some really good things here. I was very happy about 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:32.239 outside the Chiefs. That's like the only thing that went 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:35.160 right for me. God bless you Taylor Swift for making 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:38.320 sure that you had Travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes motivated. 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:40.640 Hopefully these two gentlemen had better weeks than I do. 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:42.959 We could take it through a good week four. As 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:45.360 we continue on, Pat fitz Morris joins us, Sam Hoppin 0:00:45.440 --> 0:00:47.280 joins is. Of course you could check out all our 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:50.840 amazing content at Betting Pros. Sammy Boy repping the Green 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:54.120 Bay Packers gear. Feeling pretty good about that Jordan Love Homecoming. 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.880 So I think you were in a good spot here 0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.800 to win this division because it ain't gonna be the 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:01.960 bet and it certainly doesn't feel like the Vikings can 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:03.160 win anything Zam. 0:01:03.600 --> 0:01:05.440 Yeah, we were talking about this pre show. 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:07.560 I do think the Vikings still do have a chance 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:11.200 because they haven't played anyone in the division yet. They 0:01:11.280 --> 0:01:15.080 have some opportunities to make up some ground with those games, 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:18.080 and they've just gotten terribly unlucky. I'll talk about it 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:20.280 a little bit later, but with the turnovers, it's just 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:24.640 been bad and you would expect some of that to 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.520 regress a little bit in season, even though everyone's talking 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.640 about how well they did on one side in one 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:35.520 score games last year versus this year. So certainly looking 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:37.440 good for our Green Bay Packers though. 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:42.160 Yeah, that under came in on that Charger game with 0:01:42.200 --> 0:01:45.560 the Minnesota Vikings. One under that did not come in 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:47.360 was the Miami Dolphins. 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:47.640 Fits. 0:01:47.720 --> 0:01:51.040 I mean, they scored enough points here for several games 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.160 like you're gonna took the Jets game, combined it with 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.160 another game and still probably not caught up to the 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.400 Miami Dolphins. I can't imagine going forward. I think it's 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:01.960 going to be a real Dolle year. This offense could 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:04.760 continue to just take off and be something very special. 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.400 But that was a show of shows, bad showing for 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:10.160 the Denver Broncos. But I think the big takeaway is 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:15.160 Miami's offense without Jaalen Waddle even was stunningly good yesterday 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:16.720 fits historically. 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:19.359 So it was Joe, And credit to you. I think 0:02:19.480 --> 0:02:22.600 you were on the Dolphins last week on this show. 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:26.080 I believe you like them, and I just I wasn't 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:28.240 really interested in that game at all, and I just 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:32.120 like this. This Broncos defense was actually good last year. 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:33.880 Or like a bump the march at least. 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:37.239 So it's hard to understand what exactly has happened here. 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.960 But it's going to be a test of the you know, 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:45.560 mediocre offense versus the mediocre defense when the Bears and 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:48.919 Broncos get together this week, and mediocre is really being 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:52.440 kind quite frankly, I mean, this is yeah, So it 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.720 will be interesting to see what gives in that game. 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:58.120 The Denver Broncos the first team in NFL history to 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.000 give up three hundred and fifty yards in the air 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.320 and on the ground. Congratulations Bronco. I mean, somebody's got 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:04.840 to get fired today for something. I don't know who 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:08.160 it is, but you know this is usually when heads roll. 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.239 But look, before we get going, don't forget everybody. We've 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:13.160 got free stuff for you here Petting Pros So if 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.239 you haven't already, make sure you subscribe to the channel. 0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:17.920 Drop a comment below, give us your favorite picks of 0:03:18.000 --> 0:03:20.040 week four that you like in the early look ahead, 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:22.760 and you just might win a James Cook autograph jersey. 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.800 Thanks to us here Petting pro So. Again, subscribe, drop 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:27.600 the comment and click that belt to it goes Dings. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:29.400 You know if you're the winner of the big James 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:33.359 Cook Jersey. Let's move on here to Thursday night football. 0:03:33.440 --> 0:03:35.760 Your Green Bay Packers gentlemen are going to host the 0:03:35.800 --> 0:03:39.480 Detroit Lions. Speaking of Indivision matchups, this one is real spicy. 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:43.080 You've got the Green Bay Packers two point home underdogs. 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.360 Forty five and a half is the number at Sugarhouse 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.560 right now. Forty four and a half. You can get 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.640 that over on Caesars. And if you like the Packers 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:53.360 to win at home in that dog situation, on the 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:55.680 money line right now, FanDuel's got the best number plus 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:58.320 one oh six. So let's take us through here. In 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:01.800 your opinion, Fits, is this line correct number one and 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:03.960 number two? Do you see any early value? 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:06.560 I do think the line is correct, Joe. And this 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.320 does feel like a battle for NFC North supremacy. We 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.200 know the Bears aren't going to be battling for anything, 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.720 and the Vikings, Yeah, maybe they've had some bad luck, 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.919 but that defense is pretty legitimately terrible. 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.800 So this is also a Packers. 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:23.880 Revenge game after the Lions knocked them out of the 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.440 playoffs in the final game of the twenty twenty two 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:30.960 regular season. So Jared Goff has made four starts against 0:04:31.000 --> 0:04:33.839 the Packers since joining the Lions. Lost his first one, 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:37.200 has won the last three. I don't know that I 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:40.320 like either side here, Joe, but I sort of like 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:44.920 the under Both Lions Packers games played under last season, 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:48.960 and the Packers continue to be very slow paced offensively 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:49.840 under Matt Lafleur. 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.960 Yeah, especially with the Thursday night game. I kind of 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:54.800 lean where you are right now in this one of 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:57.479 the under Sam. What's your early instinct of any on 0:04:57.560 --> 0:04:58.440 this line. 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.760 I actually took the Packers money line this morning. I 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:03.839 do think there is a little bit of value. I 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:08.960 don't think that Detroit is three points better than green 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:11.920 Bay on a neutral field, which is what this line 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:14.600 is indicating. The Packers are dealing with a ton of 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:20.280 health concerns. Jayira Alexander was out yesterday. Defandre Campbell left early. 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.560 The left side of the offensive line is nowhere to 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.359 be seen right now. But they've still allowed just a 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:29.080 twenty one and a half percent pressure rate, which is great. 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:32.000 It's second in the league. Green Bay still doesn't have 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:35.480 a game with all of Baktyari, Aaron Jones, and Christian 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:40.320 Watson playing together this year, and I do think that 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.760 they might have held some of those guys out on 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:46.520 Sunday knowing that they had the Thursday night game against 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:50.680 a divisional opponent at home, and so I think at 0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:53.600 least two of those three guys will be active on 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:57.040 Thursday night. Green Bay's been sort of living off of 0:05:57.360 --> 0:06:00.640 explosive plays so far this year. They have a pretty 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:04.279 low success rate but a fairly high EPA per play. 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:08.919 But Detroit allows the sixth highest rate of explosive pass 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:12.320 plays on defense, so I think this is another opportunity 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:16.240 for green Bay to steal another victory on Thursday Night. 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.800 It's a great point about Watson and Aaron Jones too. 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:21.480 If they are active, this is the time to jump 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:24.560 on that money line number right now, because that could 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:26.039 very well be the case of why they were just 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:28.359 holding them a little bit longer. Because this is the 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.880 game you have to win. This is the indivision contest 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:33.800 that means the most in the standings anyway. So let's 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:36.680 get to the next one here. Jacksonville Jaguars stick a 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:40.839 big fat l against the Houston Texans. Ooh wee at 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:44.520 home they are now one and two. Atlanta Falcons Cinderella 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.839 is finally got lost themselves. So both these teams coming 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:50.360 off losses a week three. Right now, we got Jacksonville 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.560 your standard minus three right now at home. That feels 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:55.679 about right as we're trying to figure out the identity 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:57.919 of these two teams. Forty five and a half is 0:06:57.960 --> 0:06:59.840 the number four The under here at Bette Rivers forty 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.520 five Arena Hafock, FanDuel. If you like the over, and 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.160 then if you like the money line, bet three sixty five. 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:07.559 As the Falcons who went outright at plus one forty five. 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.280 When you look at this line, Sam, what do you see? 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:16.160 I see the line giving you an opportunity to buy 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:18.960 Trevor Lawrence at his lowest. I mean, he has not 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:22.600 played exceptionally the first three weeks of the season. Played 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:29.040 okay against Houston in Week one, not Houston, Indianapolis, excuse me, 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.600 and then didn't fare farewell against the Chiefs, and then 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:37.520 didn't play well this past week either, And I think 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:40.480 they're sort of realizing that they can't just throw the 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:43.440 ball at Calvin Ridley twelve plus times a game and 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:46.080 win that way. They need to get some of these 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:50.440 other playmakers involved. But Trevor Lawrence is still a much 0:07:50.440 --> 0:07:54.160 better quarterback than Desmond Rheder. He Ritter had a negative 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:58.600 fourteen point two percent completion percentage over expectation last week, 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:03.080 which is not especially against Detroit defense that again we 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:06.800 just talked about hasn't been great defending the pass, and 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:09.160 it currently looks like this. 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:11.520 Is shaded towards Atlanta. 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:14.200 I wonder if we see this get down to two 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:16.960 and a half, Jacksonville in their home away from home, 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:21.080 playing in London, so they have that bit of familiarity 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:25.280 as well, So I'd be taking Jacksonville with the points here. 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:28.840 Pat Sam makes a good point here. This is the 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:30.960 way to buy Trevor Lawrence at the lowest point. Are 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:32.839 you buying him at this lowest point here this week? 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:36.760 I'm really not, Joe. Yes, the Jaguars have a big 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:40.440 quarterback advantage here, but the Falcons and Arthur Smith generally 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:43.520 do a pretty good job of hiding Desmond Ridder in 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.280 that offense, and at least that's certainly what they're trying 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:47.520 to do each and every week. 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:50.200 Like I see these two teams. 0:08:49.840 --> 0:08:53.119 Of roughly equal caliber, and I was kind of surprised 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.720 to see the Jaguars favored by what three points in 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.480 this one? Let me ask you, guys, what do you 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:02.600 think we know that Jaguars don't have a standard home 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:04.440 field advantage in this one, with the game being in 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:08.920 Wembley Stadium, what would you say their advantage is as 0:09:08.920 --> 0:09:11.880 far as an operational advantage? So far, they played nine 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:14.559 London games, this will be their tenth. They're four and 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:17.440 five so far. It's got to be worth something, but 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:21.239 probably not worth the standard two points for home field advantage. 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:24.200 That's a really good question, Pat, I mean, I think 0:09:24.240 --> 0:09:27.200 it's worth a little bit. That being said, Sam, do 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:29.320 you see any advantage of the fact that they have 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:32.840 been sort of like the default London team these last 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:33.720 five six years. 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.080 I certainly think so. I don't think it's as big 0:09:37.440 --> 0:09:41.640 of an advantage as people might think it is, because 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:45.520 there's so much science around. You know, when to sleep, 0:09:45.600 --> 0:09:48.440 how to you know, recover from jet lag. And these 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:50.800 are the best of the best athletes who know how 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.480 to do all of this sort of stuff. And it's 0:09:53.520 --> 0:09:57.680 not like nobody in Atlanta is, you know, just not 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:02.520 familiar with traveling overseas. I do think there is a little. 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:02.839 Bit to it. 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:05.800 I mean I would make it, you know, maybe close 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:09.680 to half a point if that it right now, But 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:13.480 it's I think I still think Jacksonville is going to 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:15.600 get to win here, all right. 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:17.559 Moving on to the next game here on the slate 0:10:17.600 --> 0:10:20.040 two for a time, we've got Pittsburgh and Houston. Now, 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:21.800 Houston coming off their first victory. 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:22.520 CJ. 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:24.680 Stroud looking good, the passing game looking good, and Eco 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:26.920 Collins tanked out. We just talked about all those guys 0:10:26.920 --> 0:10:29.520 in the Waiver Wire podcast on Fantasy pro fits. So 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:32.760 forty one is the number one FanDuel. Houston, of course 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.000 is a four point underdog at home, which makes sense 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.719 now Pittsburgh minus three on DK's what you can get 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:41.520 right now. But you know that Pittsburgh secondary patt has 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:43.040 not played well this year. I think we can all 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:45.400 agree on that. Yes, second, after the quarterback, that is 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:49.160 their saving grace on defense and offensively. I still work 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.480 in progress, I mean still trying to figure out their identity. 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:53.840 They had some moments, they had enough moments where they 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:56.240 squeaked by last night. But what is your takeaway of 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:59.080 any from last night, what we saw from the Pittsburgh 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.520 Steelers and what you see in this early line here. 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:03.360 Yeah, if you can keep TJ. 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.520 Watt and his friends off your quarterback, you can do 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:09.640 business against this Pittsburgh secondary. And I think the Texans 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:13.040 passing game has been much more advanced than we thought 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:13.600 it was gonna be. 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:13.920 C J. 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:17.880 Stroud has been pretty pretty terrific so far. The Steelers 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:19.800 might not be one of the powers of the AFC, 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.640 but they have picked themselves up off the deck pretty 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:25.120 nicely after that embarrassing home loss to the forty nine 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:30.120 Ers in Week one. And the Texans they're not pushovers. 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:33.120 I think this line is about right. I generally love 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:35.680 home dogs, but I'm not sure I can get behind 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:38.000 the Texans as a home dog against the Steelers. 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.640 All right, Sam, taking a look at this line here 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:44.959 for you. Fitz mentioned keeping Watt off of you is important, 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:46.920 but this offensive line has had a lot of injury 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:48.640 issues here to open the season. Do you think the 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:52.040 health and talented the offensive line can keep Watt all 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:53.640 of ce J Stroud? 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.319 I think so. I think Houston is for real. I 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:56.800 mean c J. 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.880 Strout is making throws that make it seem like he 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.400 should have been the number one overall pick in the 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.800 draft this past year. I mean, he's playing phenomenally. 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:06.240 Again. 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:10.360 You mentioned the playmakers that they have, you know, on 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:14.320 the Pittsburgh offense side, it's just gruesome. I mean, I 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:18.400 know that they played San Francisco and Cleveland, but they 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:23.760 are just down bad historically in EPAPRI plays, success rate, 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:28.720 you know, all of these advanced metrics, and I just 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.520 don't think that giving Naj Harris the ball is really 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:36.480 an effective strategy, even against Houston. So I think you're 0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:40.120 getting the better quarterback with the points here at home 0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:44.880 for Houston again, a defense that has been able to 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:49.600 stifle some pretty good offenses so far this year. So 0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.280 I'm taking Houston with the points especially. I think I 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:55.280 got him at plus three and a half this morning, 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:58.120 which if you can get it on that side of three, 0:12:58.280 --> 0:12:59.360 is huge for me. 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.000 The Los Angeles Rams are going to travel to Indianapolis. 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:06.360 We'll see how the Rams perform tonight, but in the meantime, 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:08.800 we hope that we're getting Anthony Richardson back here for 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:12.319 the Colts. The Colts stole a victory away from the 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.640 Baltimore Ravens on the road, a huge win for this team. 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:16.439 They are now two and one. Forty five and a 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:20.000 half is the number on this one. Obviously, it's practically 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.360 a pick him, and understandably why I guess a lot 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:23.920 of us to do whether or not you think Richardson 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:26.000 plays and how big of an impact he makes. Right now, 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.520 plus one and a half is where the Colts are 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:31.680 at home. Sam, do you want to bet this line 0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:33.439 now or do you want to wait for more clarity 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:35.000 when it comes to the quarterback situation. 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.520 Definitely want to wait. These are two teams that I 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.080 just like can't get a read on so far. It's 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:44.520 because they were expected to be pretty bad going into 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.559 the season, and they've played competent, above average football at 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.480 certain points so far this season. I do think you 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.959 know that Gardner Minshew didn't play half bad this past 0:13:56.000 --> 0:14:00.839 week against a pretty good Ravens defense. So I don't 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:05.560 think the line really changes a ton whether it's Minshew 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:10.240 or Richardson. But I do think that there's some more 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:13.720 variability you're going to get with Richardson under center that 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:17.120 could lead me to wanting the Rams in this situation. 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.320 Pat, the forty five at DK right now you're getting 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.200 is intriguing to me because if Richardson plays the explosiveness 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:25.080 he carries, I think the over is something you can 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:26.120 actually look for in this game. 0:14:26.160 --> 0:14:27.880 What do you think That's what I want to play. 0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:29.440 I don't want to play either side. I mean, we 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.480 get this fun matchup of two teams, so we thought 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:34.360 we're going to be lousy, but have turned out to 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:38.240 be like plucky and very entertaining to watch unexpectedly. 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.040 But yeah, I like the over a lot. Here. We've 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:42.560 seen the Colts play. 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:46.040 At a breakneck offensive pace under Shane Steichen, Like that 0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:48.920 is how they want to play. That's going to be 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:52.600 very friendly to overs, I think. And the Colts they 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.600 have a veteran slot corner in Kenny Moore, but their 0:14:55.640 --> 0:15:00.000 outside cornerbacks are very inexperienced, and I think Matthew Stafford 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:01.760 might be able to take advantage of that. I think 0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:02.800 there are gonna be points. 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.320 In this game. Joe, Yeah, I tend to agree with that. 0:15:05.360 --> 0:15:09.640 Good Joe. You mentioned the explosive nature of Anthony Richardson. 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:13.440 I believe, if I remember correctly, he only has two 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:17.920 pass attempts more than twenty yards downfield so far this season, 0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:21.520 which is kind of different than people would have expected 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:24.640 coming into this season given how how much he was 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.920 launching the ball at Florida. But I do think Stiken 0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:31.400 has been setting him up to get some easy completions 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:33.000 and build is confident. 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:36.320 Yeah, I think the I think you're one hundred percent right, 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:38.200 and Stiken's a great offensivend I think we've already seen 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.760 that in Philly for those last few years, and it's 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:42.600 also well known around the league. A lot of league 0:15:42.600 --> 0:15:45.080 people talk about, like Stichen's that guy that people are 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:47.320 very excited to see get that head coaching job and 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:49.600 what he can do with Richardson. But Richardson's ability to 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.600 make plays with his legs, those are the ones that really, 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:54.440 all of a sudden, you know you got somebody you 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.120 know you're in the red zone. It's third and eight, 0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.000 and next thing you know, he runs for a touchdown 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.480 from the eighteen yard line like like that. That's the 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:04.040 kind of stuff and you saw it before he had 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:07.840 the concussion. That's backbreaking stuff for the opposing defenses, but 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:11.360 also for totals, because that's stuff that just should not happen, 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:14.040 but it does when you have guys like Anthony Richardson 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.120 with a ball in their hands. So I'm kind of where. 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:16.440 Bad is too. 0:16:16.480 --> 0:16:18.680 I think you leave this one to the coin flip. 0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:20.840 It is speaking of bad teams though, by the way, 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:22.280 you kind of mentioned teams that we don't know who 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:24.760 they are, haven't played. Well, how about the Minnesota Vikings 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:29.080 and the Carolina Panthers, everybody. How about the winless ball here? Now, 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:31.560 somebody theoretically has to win. I guess they could tie, 0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:33.640 but we're going to get the red rifle again this week. 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:37.120 So Caroline, of course, three point underdogs at home, as 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:39.840 we would expect them to be, Minnesota's defense, not getting 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.440 a lot of credit as they should not. Forty four 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:43.840 and a half is the number for this one. If 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:45.920 you like the Panthers to get their first victory, well, 0:16:46.320 --> 0:16:49.160 you can get it plus one forty at Caesars Fits. 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:53.760 You know, the Vikings were handed many opportunities. They could 0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.960 not cash in on those opportunities. The defense is dreadful. 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.680 I know Caroline is not a good football team. Theoretically 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:02.880 on pay, Minnesota should handle them, but they're only getting 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.880 the three points here. Do you think that Minnesota can 0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:09.879 finally pull themselves up by the haunches and do something 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.760 here and win this game decisively by more than three points? 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:15.520 They can, But I do like a money line bat 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:19.120 on Carolina at plus one, you know, a home under, 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:23.920 especially if Andy Dalton plays like with Andy Dalton starting, Yes, 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.520 I mean we saw Andy Dalton complete thirty four or 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:30.040 fifty eight passes. They turn Andy Dalton loose against a 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:33.959 bad Seattle defense that was missing Tarik Woollen, and now 0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:36.879 he's going to be turned loose against a very bad 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:41.400 Minnesota defense. I like the Panthers in the money line, 0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.760 and I like the over here, like I think we're 0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:46.040 going to see a lot of offense. The Minnesota defense 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:49.160 is not good, but Minnesota's offense is very good. They're 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:50.600 gonna put points up themselves. 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:54.080 Sam I was very much on Minnesota this past week 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:55.639 I did not think they were the team that was 0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:59.479 gonna come out winless. They did. I don't know if 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:01.240 I'm ready to learned to love again in week four. 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:04.680 This game, to me right now is terrifying, but Pat 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.040 seem very confident Carolina's abilities to maybe pull one out 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.320 of the hat. Do you see that same path to 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:12.000 victory for the Panthers. 0:18:12.320 --> 0:18:15.520 I am once again on the other side of fits here. 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:17.520 I mentioned at. 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.600 The top of the show that Minnesota has just been 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:24.000 snake bitten by turnovers. Nearly a quarter of their offensive 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:27.480 drives have ended in turnovers. They have nine total turnovers 0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:31.520 this season. Carolina defense could be without Frankie Louvu and 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:35.720 Xavier Woods, who both left the game early on Sunday. 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:40.119 Minnesota's offense is still exceptionally good. I mean, they have 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:44.440 Justin Jefferson, they have Jordan Addison, they have TJ. Hockinson. 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:48.359 Like this offense is exceptional. They have a ten point 0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:52.000 eight percent explosive passwraight at second in the league. I 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:54.399 already took the over in this game as well. I 0:18:54.440 --> 0:18:57.320 think this could be a shootout. So I'm on the 0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.200 same side as fits there. But I just I think 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:02.840 these teams can can score a bunch of points and 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:05.880 their defenses aren't going to be doing much to get 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:06.600 in the way of that. 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:11.080 All right, some quarterback updates still yet to come in 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:13.280 this next game, because we have the New Orleans Saints 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.240 with Derek Carr. They are two to one now. They 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:18.760 did lose that game to the Green Bay Packers, so 0:19:18.840 --> 0:19:21.200 much of the happiness of my co hosts here now. 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:23.200 Derek Carr came away with a sprain day seed joints, 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:24.760 so he's probably gonna miss a few weeks. I've had 0:19:24.760 --> 0:19:26.880 that injury myself. It's it'll take a couple of weeks 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:28.120 for him to get back, but he should be able 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.359